Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields for child mortality estimation

The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable estimates of U5MR, necessitating the usage of smoothing models which borrow information across space and time. The assumptions of common smoothing models may be unrealistic when certain time periods or regions are expected to have shocks in mortality relative to their neighbors, which can lead to oversmoothing of U5MR estimates. In this paper, we develop a spatial and temporal smoothing approach based on Gaussian Markov random field models which incorporate knowledge of these expected shocks in mortality. We demonstrate the potential for these models to improve upon alternatives not incorporating knowledge of expected shocks in a simulation study. We apply these models to estimate U5MR in Rwanda at the national level from 1985 to 2019, a time period which includes the Rwandan civil war and genocide.

Neonatal Mortality Disparities by Gestational Age in European Countries

Importance

There are wide disparities in neonatal mortality rates (NMRs, deaths <28 days of life after live birth per 1000 live births) between countries in Europe, indicating potential for improvement. Comparing country-specific patterns of births and deaths with countries with low mortality rates can facilitate the development of effective intervention strategies.

Objective

To investigate how these disparities are associated with the distribution of gestational age (GA) and GA-specific mortality rates.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a cross-sectional study of all live births in 14 participating European countries using routine data compiled by the Euro-Peristat Network. Live births with a GA of 22 weeks or higher from 2015 to 2020 were included. Data were analyzed from May to October 2023.

Exposures

GA at birth.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The study investigated excess neonatal mortality, defined as a rate difference relative to the pooled rate in the 3 countries with the lowest NMRs (Norway, Sweden, and Finland; hereafter termed the top 3). The Kitagawa method was used to divide this excess into the proportion explained by the GA distribution of births and by GA-specific mortality rates. A sensitivity analysis was conducted among births 24 weeks' GA or greater.

Results

There were 35 094 neonatal deaths among 15 123 428 live births for an overall NMR of 2.32 per 1000. The pooled NMR in the top 3 was 1.44 per 1000 (1937 of 1 342 528). Excess neonatal mortality compared with the top 3 ranged from 0.17 per 1000 in the Czech Republic to 1.82 per 1000 in Romania. Excess deaths were predominantly concentrated among births less than 28 weeks' GA (57.6% overall). Full-term births represented 22.7% of the excess deaths in Belgium, 17.8% in France, 40.6% in Romania and 17.3% in the United Kingdom. Heterogeneous patterns were observed when partitioning excess mortality into the proportion associated with the GA distribution vs GA-specific mortality. For example, these proportions were 9.2% and 90.8% in France, 58.4% and 41.6% in the United Kingdom, and 92.9% and 7.1% in Austria, respectively. These associations remained stable after removing births under 24 weeks' GA in most, but not all, countries.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study of 14 European countries found wide NMR disparities with varying patterns by GA. This knowledge is important for developing effective strategies to reduce neonatal mortality.

Clinicopathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of childhood causes of death in the CHAMPS network: An analysis of antemortem diagnostic inaccuracies

INTRODUCTION

Determining aetiology of severe illness can be difficult, especially in settings with limited diagnostic resources, yet critical for providing life-saving care. Our objective was to describe the accuracy of antemortem clinical diagnoses in young children in high-mortality settings, compared with results of specific postmortem diagnoses obtained from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS).

METHODS

We analysed data collected during 2016-2022 from seven sites in Africa and South Asia. We compared antemortem clinical diagnoses from clinical records to a reference standard of postmortem diagnoses determined by expert panels at each site who reviewed the results of histopathological and microbiological testing of tissue, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid. We calculated test characteristics and 95% CIs of antemortem clinical diagnostic accuracy for the 10 most common causes of death. We classified diagnostic discrepancies as major and minor, per Goldman criteria later modified by Battle.

RESULTS

CHAMPS enrolled 1454 deceased young children aged 1-59 months during the study period; 881 had available clinical records and were analysed. The median age at death was 11 months (IQR 4-21 months) and 47.3% (n=417) were female. We identified a clinicopathological discrepancy in 39.5% (n=348) of deaths; 82.3% of diagnostic errors were major. The sensitivity of clinician antemortem diagnosis ranged from 26% (95% CI 14.6% to 40.3%) for non-infectious respiratory diseases (eg, aspiration pneumonia, interstitial lung disease, etc) to 82.2% (95% CI 72.7% to 89.5%) for diarrhoeal diseases. Antemortem clinical diagnostic specificity ranged from 75.2% (95% CI 72.1% to 78.2%) for diarrhoeal diseases to 99.0% (95% CI 98.1% to 99.6%) for HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Antemortem clinical diagnostic errors were common for young children who died in areas with high childhood mortality rates. To further reduce childhood mortality in resource-limited settings, there is an urgent need to improve antemortem diagnostic capability through advances in the availability of diagnostic testing and clinical skills.

High-resolution mapping of essential maternal and child health service coverage in Nigeria: a machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

National-level coverage estimates of maternal and child health (MCH) services mask district-level and community-level geographical inequities. The purpose of this study is to estimate grid-level coverage of essential MCH services in Nigeria using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

Essential MCH services in this study included antenatal care, facility-based delivery, childhood vaccinations and treatments of childhood illnesses. We estimated generalised additive models (GAMs) and gradient boosting regressions (GB) for each essential MCH service using data from five national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 and geospatial socioeconomic, environmental and physical characteristics. Using the best-performed model for each service, we map predicted coverage at 1 km2 and 5 km2 spatial resolutions in urban and rural areas, respectively.

RESULTS

GAMs consistently outperformed GB models across a range of essential MCH services, demonstrating low systematic prediction errors. High-resolution maps revealed stark geographic disparities in MCH service coverage, especially between rural and urban areas and among different states and service types. Temporal trends indicated an overall increase in MCH service coverage from 2003 to 2018, although with variations by service type and location. Priority areas with lower coverage of both maternal and vaccination services were identified, mostly located in the northern parts of Nigeria.

CONCLUSION

High-resolution spatial estimates can guide geographic prioritisation and help develop better strategies for implementation plans, allowing limited resources to be targeted to areas with lower coverage of essential MCH services.

Inulin mitigated antibiotic-induced intestinal microbiota dysbiosis - a comparison of different supplementation stages

Antibiotics are unavoidable to be prescribed to subjects due to different reasons, and they decrease the relative abundance of beneficial microbes. Inulin, a fructan type of polysaccharide carbohydrate, on the contrary, could promote the growth of beneficial microbes. In this study, we investigated the effect of inulin on antibiotic-induced intestinal microbiota dysbiosis and compared their overall impact at different supplementation stages, i.e., post-antibiotic, at the time of antibiotic administration or prior to antibiotic treatment, in the C57BL/6 mice model. Although supplementation of inulin after antibiotic treatment could aid in the reconstruction of the intestinal microbial community its overall impact was limited and no remarkable differences were identified as compared to the spontaneous restoration. On the contrary, the effect of simultaneous and pre-supplementation was more remarkable. Simultaneous inulin supplementation significantly mitigated the antibiotic-induced dysbiosis based on alterations as evaluated using weighted and unweighted UniFrac distance between baseline and after treatment. Moreover, comparing the effect of simultaneous supplementation, pre-supplemented inulin further mitigated the antibiotic-induced dysbiosis, especially on the relative abundance of dominant microbes. Collectively, the current study found that the use of inulin could alleviate antibiotic-induced microbiota dysbiosis, and the best supplementation stage (overall effect as evaluated by beta diversity distance changes) was before the antibiotic treatment, then simultaneous supplementation and supplementation after the antibiotic treatment.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Infant, Neonatal, and Post-neonatal Mortality in Greece: A Nationwide Time-Trend Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Infant mortality is a crucial perinatal measure and is also regarded as an important public health indicator. This study aimed to comprehensively present time trends in infant, neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality in Greece.

METHODS

The annual infant mortality rate (IMR), the neonatal mortality rate (NMR), and the post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) were calculated based on official national data obtained from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, spanning 67 years from 1956 to 2022. The time trends of the mortality rates were evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis, and the annual percent changes (APC) and the overall average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI).

RESULTS

The IMR exhibited accelerating declines over more than 50 years, with an APC of -1.9 (-2.8 to -1.0) from 1956 to 1968, -5.4 (-5.6 to -5.2) from 1968 to 1999, and -7.3 (-8.9 to -5.7) between 1999 and 2008. In 2008, IMR reached its all-time low of 2.7 per 1,000 live births, down 16.6-fold from its peak at 44.1 per 1,000 live births in 1957. This improving trend was reversed following the onset of the economic crisis in the country, leading to a 57% increase in IMR from 2008 to 2016, with an upward trend APC of 3.4 (1.2 to 5.5). In the recent period 2016-2022, there was an improvement with an APC of -3.7 (-6.2 to -1.1), resulting in an IMR of 3.1 per 1,000 live births in 2022. The decrease in IMR was estimated to have prevented 209,109 infant deaths in the country from 1958 to 2022. From 1956 to 2022, the IMR decreased with an AAPC of -3.9 (-4.3 to -3.4), while the PNMR saw a decline with an AAPC of -4.5 (-5.1 to -3.9) and the NMR with an AAPC of -3.2 (-3.7 to -2.6).

CONCLUSION

Greece achieved an impressive decrease in infant mortality rates, but this progress was halted and completely reversed during the economic crisis. Although there have been some recent improvements after the country's economic recovery, the rates have yet to reach pre-crisis levels.

Surviving birth at high altitude

This Symposium Review examines challenges to surviving birth and infancy at high altitudes. Chronic exposure to the environmental hypoxia of high altitudes increases the incidence of maternal vascular disorders of pregnancy characterized by placental insufficiency, restricted fetal growth and preterm delivery, and impairs pulmonary vascular health during infancy. While each condition independently contributes to excess morbidity and mortality in early life, evidence indicates vascular disorders of pregnancy and infantile pulmonary vascular dysfunction are intertwined. By integrating our recent scientific and clinical observations in Bolivia with existing literature, we propose potential avenues to reduce the infant mortality burden at high altitudes and reduce pulmonary vascular disease in highland neonates, and emphasize the need for further research to address unresolved questions.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

A comprehensive review on the fate and impact of antibiotic residues in the environment and public health: A special focus on the developing countries

The widespread application of antibiotics in human and veterinary medicine has led to the pervasive presence of antibiotic residues in the environment, posing a potential hazard to public health. This comprehensive review aims to scrutinize the fate and impact of antibiotic residues, with a particular focus on the context of developing nations. The investigation delves into the diverse pathways facilitating the entry of antibiotics into the environment and meticulously examines their effects on human health. The review delineates the current state of antibiotic residues, evaluates their exposure in developing nations, and elucidates existing removal methodologies. Additionally, it probes into the factors contributing to the endurance and ecotoxicity of antibiotic residues, correlating these aspects with usage rates and associated mortalities in these nations. The study also investigates removal techniques for antibiotic residues, assessing their efficiency in environmental compartments. The concurrent emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, engendered by antibiotic residues, and their adverse ecological threats underscore the necessity for enhanced regulations, vigilant surveillance programs, and the adoption of sustainable alternatives. The review underlines the pivotal role of public education and awareness campaigns in promoting responsible antibiotic use. The synthesis concludes with strategic recommendations, strengthening the imperative for further research encompassing comprehensive monitoring, ecotoxicological effects, alternative strategies, socio-economic considerations, and international collaborations, all aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of antibiotic residues on human health and the environment. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Antibiotic residues are widely distributed in different environmental compartments. Developing countries use more antibiotics than developed countries. Human and veterinary wastes are one of the most responsible sources of antibiotic pollution. Antibiotics interact with biological systems and trigger pharmacological reactions at low doses. Antibiotics can be removed using modern biological, chemical, and physical-chemical techniques.

Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Hotspots of Schistosoma transmission-communities where infection prevalence does not decline adequately with mass drug administration-present a key challenge in eliminating schistosomiasis. Current approaches to identify hotspots require evaluation 2-5 y after a baseline survey and subsequent mass drug administration. Here, we develop statistical models to predict hotspots at baseline prior to treatment comparing three common hotspot definitions, using epidemiologic, survey-based, and remote sensing data. In a reanalysis of randomized trials in 589 communities in five endemic countries, a regression model predicts whether Schistosoma mansoni infection prevalence will exceed the WHO threshold of 10% in year 5 ("prevalence hotspot") with 86% sensitivity, 74% specificity, and 93% negative predictive value (NPV; assuming 30% hotspot prevalence), and a regression model for Schistosoma haematobium achieves 90% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and 96% NPV. A random forest model predicts whether S. mansoni moderate and heavy infection prevalence will exceed a public health goal of 1% in year 5 ("intensity hotspot") with 92% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 96% NPV, and a boosted trees model for S. haematobium achieves 77% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and 91% NPV. Baseline prevalence is a top predictor in all models. Prediction is less accurate in countries not represented in training data and for a third hotspot definition based on relative prevalence reduction over time ("persistent hotspot"). These models may be a tool to prioritize high-risk communities for more frequent surveillance or intervention against schistosomiasis, but prediction of hotspots remains a challenge.

Child mortality inequalities and socioeconomic determinants of health in Iran, 2016-2018

Measuring health inequalities is essential to inform policy making and for monitoring implementation to reduce avoidable and unfair differences in health status. We conducted a geospatial analysis of child mortality in Iran using death records from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education from 2016 to 2018 stratified by sex, age, province, and district, and household expenditure and income survey data from the Statistical Center of Iran collected in 2017. We applied multilevel mixed-effect models and detected significant inequality in child mortality and the impact of socioeconomic factors, especially household income. We advocate for using mortality rate for young children (< 5 years old) as an indicator for assessing the impact of interventions to reduce inequalities among various socioeconomic groups. We also recommend to design and implement comprehensive and longitudinal data collection systems for accurate, regular, and specific monitoring of health inequalities.

Associations between livestock keeping, morbidity and nutritional status of children and women in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Livestock keeping can positively influence the nutritional status of populations and households through increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) and other indirect pathways, but can also adversely affect health by increasing the risk of diseases. We conducted a systematic review synthesising the current state of knowledge on the associations among livestock keeping, infectious disease and the nutritional status of children under 5 years and women of reproductive age in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). A comprehensive search of 12 electronic databases and grey literature sources published from 1991 to the end of December 2020 was conducted. Investigations exploring relationships between livestock keeping and risk of infectious disease transmission and nutritional status were selected using pre-defined inclusion criteria. After screening and filtering of 34,402 unique references, 176 references were included in the final synthesis. Most (160/176, 90.1%) of the references included in the final synthesis were from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. About two out of every five (42%) studies reviewed showed that livestock production is associated with improved height-for-age Z scores (HAZ) and weight-for-length/height Z scores (WHZ), while close to a third (30.7%) with improved weight-for-age Z scores (WAZ). Similarly, livestock production showed a positive or neutral relationship with women's nutritional status in almost all the references that reported on the topic. Conversely, four-fifths (66/81, 79.5%) of the references reporting on infection and morbidity outcomes indicated that livestock keeping is linked to a wide range of infectious disease outcomes, which are spread primarily through water, food and insects. In conclusion, in many LMIC settings, livestock production is associated with better nutritional outcomes but also a higher risk of disease transmission or morbidity among women and children.This review was prospectively registered on PROSPERO 2020 [CRD42020193622].

Stillbirths attributable to open fires and their geographic disparities in non-Western countries

Due to global warming, an increased number of open fires is becoming a major contributor to PM2.5 pollution and thus a threat to public health. However, the burden of stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM2.5 is unknown. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a co-occurrence of high baseline stillbirth rates and frequent firestorms, which may lead to a geographic disparity. Across 54 LMICs, we conducted a self-matched case-control study, making stillbirths comparable to the corresponding livebirths in terms of time-invariant characteristics (e.g., genetics) and duration of gestational exposure. We established a joint-exposure-response function (JERF) by simultaneously associating stillbirth with fire- and non-fire-sourced PM2.5 concentrations, which were estimated by fusing multi-source data, such as chemical transport model simulations and satellite observations. During 2000-2014, 35,590 pregnancies were selected from multiple Demographic and Health Surveys. In each mother, a case of stillbirth was compared to her livebirth(s) based on gestational exposure to fire-sourced PM2.5. We further applied the JERF to assess stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM2.5 in 136 non-Western countries. The disparity was evaluated using the Gini index. The risk of stillbirth increased by 17.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-35.7%) per 10 μg/m3 increase in fire-sourced PM2.5. In 2014, referring to a minimum-risk exposure level of 10 μg/m3, total and fire-sourced PM2.5 contributed to 922,860 (95% CI: 578,451-1,183,720) and 49,951 (95% CI: 3,634-92,629) stillbirths, of which 10% were clustered within the 6.4% and 0.6% highest-exposure pregnancies, respectively. The Gini index of stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM2.5 was 0.65, much higher than for total PM2.5 (0.28). Protecting pregnant women against PM2.5 exposure during wildfires is critical to avoid stillbirths, as the burden of fire-associated stillbirths leads to a geographic disparity in maternal health.

A Paratope-Enhanced Method to Determine Breadth and Depth TCR Clonal Metrics of the Private Human T-Cell Vaccine Response after SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination

Quantitative metrics for vaccine-induced T-cell responses are an important need for developing correlates of protection and their use in vaccine-based medical management and population health. Molecular TCR analysis is an appealing strategy but currently requires a targeted methodology involving complex integration of ex vivo data (antigen-specific functional T-cell cytokine responses and TCR molecular responses) that uncover only public antigen-specific metrics. Here, we describe an untargeted private TCR method that measures breadth and depth metrics of the T-cell response to vaccine challenge using a simple pre- and post-vaccine subject sampling, TCR immunoseq analysis, and a bioinformatic approach using self-organizing maps and GLIPH2. Among 515 subjects undergoing SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, we found that breadth and depth metrics were moderately correlated between the targeted public TCR response and untargeted private TCR response methods. The untargeted private TCR method was sufficiently sensitive to distinguish subgroups of potential clinical significance also observed using public TCR methods (the reduced T-cell vaccine response with age and the paradoxically elevated T-cell vaccine response of patients on anti-TNF immunotherapy). These observations suggest the promise of this untargeted private TCR method to produce T-cell vaccine-response metrics in an antigen-agnostic and individual-autonomous context.

Exploring spatiotemporal trends and impacts of health resources and services on under-5 mortality in West African countries, 2010-2019: a spatial data analysis

Background

West African countries experienced the highest under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), the lowest life expectancy, and the poorest economic development. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal trend of U5MR and spatial spillover effects of health resources and services to provide a basis for establishing health policies and international cooperative mechanisms in West Africa.

Methods

We retrieved data from the World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory, the United Nations Human Development Report, and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and Moran's I method were used to examine the temporal trend and spatial dependence of U5MR, respectively. Spatial regression analysis was used to examine the spatial spillover effects.

Results

The long-term downward trends in U5MR were divided into multiple segments by two or three change points in 2013, 2014, or 2015, and the annual percentage change after 2015 was higher than before 2015. Global Moran's I was positive, significantly indicating positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased from 0.2850 (p = 0.0210) to 0.3597 (p = 0.0080). Based on spatial regression analysis, human development index (HDI), physicians density, nurses and midwives density, health center density, percentage of infants lacking immunization for diphtheria and measles, and coverage rate of at least one antenatal visit had negative spatial spillover effects on U5MR. HDI had the strongest negative correlation (β = -0.0187 to -0.1054, p < 0.0001). Current health expenditure (CHE) per capita had positive spatial spillover effects on U5MR.

Conclusion

This study revealed the spatiotemporal trend of U5MR in West African countries and spatial spillover effects of health resources and services. Promoting economic development, increasing health human resources, health expenditure, vaccination rate, antenatal care coverage, and the proportion of health professionals attending births not only reduced the local U5MR but also exerted spatial spillover effects on adjacent countries. The West African Health Organization may consider regional spillover mechanisms to develop regional health policy and intervention cooperation mechanisms, which will contribute to achieving the sustainable development goal on U5MR, Africa Agenda 2063, and universal health coverage.

Changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration among under-5 children from 1990 to 2019

Background

To evaluate the changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration (FBA) among children under 5 years old at regional, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

Data on FBA was derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 database on pulmonary aspiration and foreign body in airway. The means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The temporal trends were represented by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) using Joinpoint regression.

Results

Globally, FBA caused 109.6 (95% UI: 69.5, 175.7) per 100,000 incidence and 317.9 (95% UI: 270.7, 372.4) per 100,000 DALYs under 5 years old in 2019. Many European countries (such as Italy, Netherlands, Iceland, etc.) showed a high incidence rate, but did not cause a large disease burden (DALYs all less than 200 per 100,000). Compared to 1990, although a decrease in both incidence and DALYs occurred in 2019, the Joinpoint regression showed an increasing trend in incidence rate from 2014 to 2019 [APC: both (2.10), female (2.25), male (1.98), P < 0.05)], especially China, Netherlands, and Malta. Despite the lower incidence rate in early neonatal group and middle SDI areas, they instead resulted in higher DALYs than other age groups and areas.

Conclusion

Although declines occurred in incidence and DALYs of FBA among children under 5 years of age from 1990 to 2014, an upward trend began to emerge from 2014 to 2019. The incidence and DALY rates were correlated with age and SDI. Increased efforts are needed to improve the necessary monitoring and reporting systems, hazard assessment, and public education activities.

Estimating the exposure-response function between long-term ozone exposure and under-5 mortality in 55 low-income and middle-income countries: a retrospective, multicentre, epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

In 2021, WHO suggested new target concentration limits for long-term exposure to ambient ozone. However, the harmful effects of ozone on vulnerable children have not been sufficiently studied. We aimed to evaluate the association between long-term ozone exposure and mortality in children younger than 5 years (hereafter denoted under-5 mortality) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to estimate this mortality burden for 97 LMICs.

METHODS

By combining information from 128 Demographic and Health Surveys, we evaluated the association between the survival status of more than 1·2 million children younger than 5 years from 2457 sampling strata in 55 LMICs and the average peak-season ozone concentration during the life course, using a fixed-effects Cox model. A non-linear exposure-response function was developed by integrating the marginal effects of within-strata variation in exposure. We extrapolated the function obtained from the 55 LMICs to estimate the under-5 mortality burden attributable to ozone exposure in 97 LMICs, in which more than 95% of global deaths in this age group occur.

FINDINGS

The fixed-effects model showed a robust association between ozone and under-5 mortality. According to the fully adjusted linear model, an increment of 10 ppb in the life-course average peak-season ozone concentration was associated with a 6·4% (95% CI 2·4-10·7) increase in the risk of under-5 mortality. The non-linear exposure-response function showed a sublinear curvature with a threshold, suggesting that the effect of ozone exposure was non-significant at concentrations lower than the first-stage interim target (100 μg/m3) recommended by WHO. Using this function, we estimate that, in 2010, long-term ozone exposure contributed to 153 361 (95% CI 17 077-276 768; 2·3% [0·3-4·1]) deaths of children younger than 5 years in 97 LMICs, which is equivalent to 56·8% of all ozone-related deaths in adults (269 785) in these countries. From 2003 to 2017, the ozone-related under-5 mortality burden decreased in most of the 97 LMICs.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term exposure to ozone concentrations higher than the WHO first-stage interim target is a risk factor for under-5 mortality, and ozone exposure contributes substantially to mortality in this age group in LMICs. Increased efforts should be made to control ambient ozone pollution as this will lead to positive health benefits.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China and China National Natural Science Foundation.

A small area model to assess temporal trends and sub-national disparities in healthcare quality

Monitoring subnational healthcare quality is important for identifying and addressing geographic inequities. Yet, health facility surveys are rarely powered to support the generation of estimates at more local levels. With this study, we propose an analytical approach for estimating both temporal and subnational patterns of healthcare quality indicators from health facility survey data. This method uses random effects to account for differences between survey instruments; space-time processes to leverage correlations in space and time; and covariates to incorporate auxiliary information. We applied this method for three countries in which at least four health facility surveys had been conducted since 1999 - Kenya, Senegal, and Tanzania - and estimated measures of sick-child care quality per WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) guidelines at programmatic subnational level, between 1999 and 2020. Model performance metrics indicated good out-of-sample predictive validity, illustrating the potential utility of geospatial statistical models for health facility data. This method offers a way to jointly estimate indicators of healthcare quality over space and time, which could then provide insights to decision-makers and health service program managers.

The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings.

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world.

FUNDING

The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lead pollution-related health of children in China: Disparity, challenge, and policy

Lead (Pb) is a neurotoxic metal, and no level of lead exposure is safe for children. China has still experienced problems on child lead poisoning even though the Chinese government has phased out leaded gasoline since 2000. The underlying problem affecting the lead pollution-related health of children in China remains to be comprehensively investigated. It is found that although the significant decline of BLLs, as the Geometric Mean (GM), from 91.40 μg/L^GM in 2001 to 37.52 μg/L^GM in 2018 is observed, the average BLLs of children are still above 50 μg/L or more [average 59.70 (60.50-65.02, 95 % CI) μg/L^GM] after phasing out leaded gasoline since 2000 in China. Lead exposure causes 29.67 MID per 1000 children with a loss of 98.23 (59.40-146.21, 95 % CI) DALYs per 1000 in China, which is greater than the levels reported from the Western Pacific Region and other low- and middle-income countries. A significant correlation is observed between the number of child crimes (NoCCs) and the outcomes of long-term lead exposure for children in China. Although the disparities in BLLs in China are strongly influenced by unequal distributions of potential multi-lead related sources (soil lead, PM2.5 lead, dust lead), unbalance development of local industrialization and economies, as well as incorrect health care for younger children, the notable emissions from coal combustion (CC) and non-ferrous metals (NMS) exploitation dominate the crucial sources of low-level lead exposure to children after phasing out leaded gasoline in China currently. Faced with the unequal and disparate distribution of BLLs in China, the big bottleneck is to decrease the BLLs exertions of 36-45 μg/L in the next few decades. The Chinese government needs to make more efforts on developing more strict guidelines, implementing more policy strategies on prevention and management of blood Pb poisoning, and monitoring the nationwide changes in children's BLLs continuously.

Estimating vaccine coverage in conflict settings using geospatial methods: a case study in Borno state, Nigeria

Reliable estimates of subnational vaccination coverage are critical to track progress towards global immunisation targets and ensure equitable health outcomes for all children. However, conflict can limit the reliability of coverage estimates from traditional household-based surveys due to an inability to sample in unsafe and insecure areas and increased uncertainty in underlying population estimates. In these situations, model-based geostatistical (MBG) approaches offer alternative coverage estimates for administrative units affected by conflict. We estimated first- and third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine coverage in Borno state, Nigeria, using a spatiotemporal MBG modelling approach, then compared these to estimates from recent conflict-affected, household-based surveys. We compared sampling cluster locations from recent household-based surveys to geolocated data on conflict locations and modelled spatial coverage estimates, while also investigating the importance of reliable population estimates when assessing coverage in conflict settings. These results demonstrate that geospatially-modelled coverage estimates can be a valuable additional tool to understand coverage in locations where conflict prevents representative sampling.

Antibiotic prescription from qualified sources for children with fever/cough: cross-sectional study from 59 low- and middle-income countries

Background

Children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) receive a staggering number of antibiotic prescriptions, many of which are inappropriate. We aimed to explore the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions from qualified sources of children under five who had a fever/cough in the two weeks prior to the survey in LMICs.

Methods

We used data from cross-sectional studies of the latest Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets (n = 43,166) in 59 LMICs covering Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa-West Asia-Europe, Central Asia, South & Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Latin America & the Caribbean regions. The study was conducted from March 2, 2020 to October 15, 2022. We only included the latest available surveys by country, and children under five who had taken antibiotics for fever/cough were included in the study. Finally, the outcome variable was classified into two distinct categories: those who had taken antibiotics from qualified sources and those who did not.

Findings

About three in four children (74.0%) received antibiotics from qualified sources. Tanzania (22.4%) and Malawi (99.9%) had the lowest and highest percentages of antibiotic prescriptions by qualified sources, respectively. Oceania had the highest percentage of qualified antibiotic prescriptions with 88.9% and Central Asia had the lowest percentage with 56.3%.

Interpretation

As unqualified sources of antibiotics for fever/cough in children under five were alarmingly high in some of the LMICs, the study emphasises the importance of nationwide efforts to regulate antibiotics prescriptions.

Funding

None.

National and subnational burden of under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality in Ethiopia, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The under-5 mortality rate is a commonly used indicator of population health and socioeconomic status worldwide. However, as in most low- and middle-income countries settings, deaths among children under-5 and in any age group in Ethiopia remain underreported and fragmented. We aimed to systematically estimate neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality trends, identify underlying causes, and make subnational (regional and chartered cities) comparisons between 1990 and 2019. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate three key under-5 mortality indicators-the probability of death between the date of birth and 28 days (neonatal mortality rate, NMR), the date of birth and 1 year (infant mortality rate, IMR), and the date of birth and 5 years (under-5 mortality rate, U5MR). The causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm). Specifically, this involved a multi-stage process that includes a non-linear mixed-effects model, source bias correction, spatiotemporal smoothing, and a Gaussian process regression to synthesise mortality estimates by age, sex, location, and year. In 2019, an estimated 190,173 (95% uncertainty interval 149,789-242,575) under-5 deaths occurred in Ethiopia. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of under-5 deaths in 2019 were within the first year of life, and over half (52%) in the first 28 days. The overall U5MR, IMR, and NMR in the country were estimated to be 52.4 (44.7-62.4), 41.5 (35.2-50.0), and 26.6 (22.6-31.5) deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively, with substantial variations between administrative regions. Over three-quarters of under-5 deaths in 2019 were due to five leading causes, namely neonatal disorders (40.7%), diarrhoeal diseases (13.2%), lower respiratory infections (10.3%), congenital birth defects (7.0%), and malaria (6.0%). During the same period, neonatal disorders alone accounted for about 76.4% (70.2-79.6) of neonatal and 54.7% (51.9-57.2) of infant deaths in Ethiopia. While all regional states in Ethiopia have experienced a decline in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates in the past three decades, the rate of change was not large enough to meet the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Inter-regional disparities in under 5 mortality also remain significant, with the biggest differences being in the neonatal period. A concerted effort is required to improve neonatal survival and lessen regional disparity, which may require strengthening essential obstetric and neonatal care services, among others. Our study also highlights the urgent need for primary studies to improve the accuracy of regional estimates in Ethiopia, particularly in pastoralist regions.

Global biomass fires and infant mortality

Global outdoor biomass burning is a major contributor to air pollution, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Recent years have witnessed substantial changes in the extent of biomass burning, including large declines in Africa. However, direct evidence of the contribution of biomass burning to global health outcomes remains limited. Here, we use georeferenced data on more than 2 million births matched to satellite-derived burned area exposure to estimate the burden of biomass fires on infant mortality. We find that each additional square kilometer of burning is associated with nearly 2% higher infant mortality in nearby downwind locations. The share of infant deaths attributable to biomass fires has increased over time due to the rapid decline in other important causes of infant death. Applying our model estimates across harmonized district-level data covering 98% of global infant deaths, we find that exposure to outdoor biomass burning was associated with nearly 130,000 additional infant deaths per year globally over our 2004 to 2018 study period. Despite the observed decline in biomass burning in Africa, nearly 75% of global infant deaths due to burning still occur in Africa. While fully eliminating biomass burning is unlikely, we estimate that even achievable reductions-equivalent to the lowest observed annual burning in each location during our study period-could have avoided more than 70,000 infant deaths per year globally since 2004.

Associations between primary healthcare and infant health outcomes: a cohort analysis of low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Background

Expanding primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low-and middle-income countries and is essential to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). Between 2008 and 2016 the city of Rio de Janeiro undertook an ambitious programme to rapidly expand primary care to low-income areas through the family health strategy (FHS). Infant health impacts of this roll out are unknown. This study examines associations between maternal FHS utilisation and birth outcomes, neonatal and infant mortality.

Methods

A cohort of 75,339 live births (January 2009-December 2014) to low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro was linked to primary care, birth, hospital and death records. The relationship between maternal FHS use and infant health outcomes was assessed through logistic regression with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment. Socioeconomic inequalities in the associations between FHS use and outcomes were explored through interactions. Primary outcomes were neonatal and infant death. Thirteen secondary outcomes were also examined to explore other important health outcomes and potential mechanisms.

Results

A total of 9002 (12.0%) infants were born to mothers in the cohort who used FHS services either before pregnancy or in the first two trimesters. There was a total of 527 neonatal and 893 infant deaths. Maternal FHS usage during the first two trimesters was associated with substantial reductions in neonatal [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.527, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.345; 0.806] and infant mortality (aOR: 0.672, 95% CI: 0.48; 0.924). Infants born to lower-income mothers and those without formal employment had larger reductions in neonatal and infant mortality associated with FHS use. Maternal FHS in the first two trimesters use was also associated with more antenatal care consultations and a lower risk of low birth weight and preterm birth.

Interpretation

Expanding primary care to low-income populations in Rio de Janeiro was associated with improved infant health and health equity benefits.

Funding

DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Operationalizing Appropriate Sepsis Definitions in Children Worldwide: Considerations for the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce

Sepsis is a leading cause of global mortality in children, yet definitions for pediatric sepsis are outdated and lack global applicability and validity. In adults, the Sepsis-3 Definition Taskforce queried databases from high-income countries to develop and validate the criteria. The merit of this definition has been widely acknowledged; however, important considerations about less-resourced and more diverse settings pose challenges to its use globally. To improve applicability and relevance globally, the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce sought to develop a conceptual framework and rationale of the critical aspects and context-specific factors that must be considered for the optimal operationalization of future pediatric sepsis definitions. It is important to address challenges in developing a set of pediatric sepsis criteria which capture manifestations of illnesses with vastly different etiologies and underlying mechanisms. Ideal criteria need to be unambiguous, and capable of adapting to the different contexts in which children with suspected infections are present around the globe. Additionally, criteria need to facilitate early recognition and timely escalation of treatment to prevent progression and limit life-threatening organ dysfunction. To address these challenges, locally adaptable solutions are required, which permit individualized care based on available resources and the pretest probability of sepsis. This should facilitate affordable diagnostics which support risk stratification and prediction of likely treatment responses, and solutions for locally relevant outcome measures. For this purpose, global collaborative databases need to be established, using minimum variable datasets from routinely collected data. In summary, a "Think globally, act locally" approach is required.

Temporal trend, spatial analysis and spatiotemporal clusters of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil: Time series from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between the years 2000 and 2020.

METHODS

Ecological study of time series, with spatial analysis and spatiotemporal scan of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis from the records of deaths of the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian model. The Global Moran Index, Global Geary's Contiguity and Getis-Ord General statistics were calculated for spatial autocorrelation assessment. The trends were evaluated by the Joinpoint method.

RESULTS

We identified 1183 infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between 2000 and 2020. The predominant characteristics were male sex (52.1%), post-neonatal age group (51.9%), white race/colour (45.7%), and Southeast region of residence (40.0%). The infant mortality rate associated with congenital toxoplasmosis showed an increasing trend in the country in the years analysed. The spatial analysis showed heterogeneous distribution of mortality in the Brazilian territory and found no evidence of spatial autocorrelation; but spatial-temporal analysis identified three risk clusters involving 703 municipalities.

CONCLUSION

Infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. The risk factors male sex, indigenous race/colour, early neonatal age, North and Northeast regions and risk clusters mapped in this study should be observed for future analysis and planning of health care policies in the control of infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis. Health surveillance strategies and public health policies need to be strengthened.

Assessing Geographic Overlap between Zero-Dose Diphtheria–Tetanus–Pertussis Vaccination Prevalence and Other Health Indicators

The integration of immunization with other essential health services is among the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and has the potential to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of health service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the degree of spatial overlap between the prevalence of children who have never received a dose of the diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis-containing vaccine (no-DTP) and other health-related indicators, to provide insight into the potential for joint geographic targeting of integrated service delivery efforts. Using geospatially modeled estimates of vaccine coverage and comparator indicators, we develop a framework to delineate and compare areas of high overlap across indicators, both within and between countries, and based upon both counts and prevalence. We derive summary metrics of spatial overlap to facilitate comparison between countries and indicators and over time. As an example, we apply this suite of analyses to five countries—Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Angola—and five comparator indicators—children with stunting, under-5 mortality, children missing doses of oral rehydration therapy, prevalence of lymphatic filariasis, and insecticide-treated bed net coverage. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the geographic overlap both within and between countries. These results provide a framework to assess the potential for joint geographic targeting of interventions, supporting efforts to ensure that all people, regardless of location, can benefit from vaccines and other essential health services.

National data linkage assessment of live births and deaths in Mexico: Estimating under-five mortality rate ratios for vulnerable newborns and trends from 2008 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Linked datasets that enable longitudinal assessments are scarce in low and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the linkage of administrative databases of live births and under-five child deaths to explore mortality and trends for preterm, small (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA) in Mexico.

METHODS

We linked individual-level datasets collected by National statistics from 2008 to 2019. Linkage was performed based on agreement on birthday, sex, residential address. We used the Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health software to identify the best candidate pairs based on similarity. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We evaluated completeness by comparing the number of linked records with reported deaths. We described the percentage of linked records by baseline characteristics to identify potential bias. Using the linked dataset, we calculated mortality rate ratios (RR) in neonatal, infants, and children under-five according to gestational age, birthweight, and size.

RESULTS

For the period 2008-2019, a total of 24,955,172 live births and 321,165 under-five deaths were available for linkage. We excluded 1,539,046 records (6.2%) with missing or implausible values. We succesfully linked 231,765 deaths (72.2%: range 57.1% in 2009 and 84.3% in 2011). The rate of neonatal mortality was higher for preterm compared with term (RR 3.83, 95% confidence interval, CI 3.78, 3.88) and for SGA compared with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) (RR 1.22 95% CI, 1.19, 1.24). Births at <28 weeks had the highest mortality (RR 35.92, 95%CI, 34.97, 36.88). LGA had no additional risk vs AGA among children under five (RR 0.92, 95%CI, 0.90, 0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the utility of linked data to understand neonatal vulnerability and child mortality. We created a linked dataset that would be a valuable resource for future population-based research.

Dose-response association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and the risk of infant death: a nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Association of timing and intensity of maternal smoking during pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death remains inconclusive. We aimed to examine the dose-response association of maternal smoking during each of the three trimesters of pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death.

METHODS

In this nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study, data were extracted from the U.S. National Vital Statistics System, 2015-2019. We included mother-infant pairs after excluding twin or multiple births, newborns with gestation age <37 weeks and those with low birthweight, mothers aged <18 years or ≥50 years, mothers with pre-existing hypertension or diabetes, and those with missing values for variables of interest. Poisson regression models were used to examine the association of different intensities and doses of maternal smoking during each of the three trimesters of pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death attributed to congenital anomalies, preterm birth, other perinatal conditions, sudden unexpected infant death, and infection.

FINDINGS

A total of 13,524,204 mother-infant pairs were included in our analyses. Maternal smoking during the entire pregnancy was associated with infant all-cause death (relative risk [RR] 1.88, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.79-1.97), cause-specific death due to preterm birth (1.57, 1.25-1.98), perinatal conditions excluding preterm birth (1.35, 1.10-1.65), sudden unexpected infant death (2.56, 2.40-2.73), and infection (1.51, 1.20-1.88). The risk of infant all-cause death (RR values from 1.80 to 2.15) and cause-specific infant death by preterm birth (RR values from 1.42 to 1.74), perinatal conditions excluding preterm birth (RR values from 1.46 to 1.53), sudden unexpected infant death (RR values from 2.37 to 3.04), and infection (RR values from 1.48 to 2.69) increased with the intensity of maternal cigarette use during the entire pregnancy from 1-5 to ≥11 cigarettes. Compared with mothers who smoked during their entire pregnancy, those who smoked in the first trimester and then quit smoking in the second or third trimesters of pregnancy had a reduced risk of infant all-cause death (0.71, 0.65-0.78) and sudden unexpected infant death (0.64, 0.57-0.72).

INTERPRETATION

There was a dose-response association of maternal cigarette use during each of the three trimesters of pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death. In addition, mothers who are smokers in the first trimester and then quit smoking in the subsequent two trimesters are at decreased risk of infant all-cause mortality and sudden unexpected infant death compared with those who smoked during the entire pregnancy. These findings suggest that there is no safe level of maternal smoking in any trimester of pregnancy and maternal smokers should stop smoking during pregnancy to improve the survival of infants.

FUNDING

Youth Team of Humanistic and Social Science and the Innovation Team of the "Climbing" Program of Shandong University (20820IFYT1902).

Spatiotemporal distributions of under-five mortality in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019

Under-five mortality declined in the last two decades in Ethiopia, but sub-national and local progress remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distributions and ecological level factors of under-five mortality in Ethiopia. Data on under-five mortality were obtained from five different Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS), conducted in 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Environmental and healthcare access data were obtained from different publicly available sources. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict and visualize spatial risks for under-five mortality. The national under-five mortality rate in Ethiopia declined from 121 per 1000 live births in 2000 to 59 per 1000 live births in 2019. Spatial variation in under-five mortality was observed at regional and local levels with the highest rates reported in the Western, Eastern, and Central parts of Ethiopia. Spatial clustering of under-five mortality was significantly associated with population density, access to a water body, and climatic factors such as temperature. Under-five mortality rate declined over the past two decades and varied substantially at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia. Increasing access to water and health care may help to reduce under-five mortality in high-risk areas. Therefore, interventions targeted to reduce under-five mortality should be strengthened in the areas that had a clustering of under-five mortality in Ethiopia by increasing access to quality health care access.

Variations in Author Gender in Obstetrics Disease Prevalence Literature: A Systematic Review

This systematic review aims to evaluate gender differences in authorship of prevalence literature concerning intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). GDM studies were matched for publication year and study country as a gender-neutral obstetric disease with similar morbidity to IPV. Relevant studies were captured without language restrictions via online searches of PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science from database inception to January 2022. Proportion of female authors and gender of the first and corresponding author were outcome measures. Multivariable regression models were built to examine if female authors featured more or less often in IPV during pregnancy and GDM literature adjusting by the influence of type of study, country's human development index (HDI), year of publication and journal's impact factor. 137 IPV-GDM studies pairs were included. Female authors in IPV studies were slightly lower than in GDM [59.7%, 95% CI 54.7-64.7, vs. 54.9%, 95% CI 50.7-59.1, p = 0.204]. Studies published in high-income countries were more likely to be signed by a woman as first and corresponding author (Odds Ratio 2.22, 95% CI 1.20; 4.11, p = 0.011 and Odds Ratio 2.24, CI 1.22; 4.10, p = 0.009 respectively) and proportion of women as corresponding authors decreased as the journal impact factor increased (β = 0.62, 95% CI 0.37, 1.05, p = 0.075). There is a gender gap in the field of prevalence research in IPV during pregnancy with variations according to the level of development. International programs aimed at eradicating these inequalities are needed.

Mapping under-five child malaria risk that accounts for environmental and climatic factors to aid malaria preventive and control efforts in Ghana: Bayesian geospatial and interactive web-based mapping methods

BACKGROUND

Under-five child malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, especially among sub-Saharan African countries like Ghana. In Ghana, malaria is responsible for about 20,000 deaths in children annually of which 25% are those aged < 5 years. To provide opportunities for efficient malaria surveillance and targeted control efforts amidst limited public health resources, the study produced high resolution interactive web-based spatial maps that characterized geographical differences in malaria risk and identified high burden communities.

METHODS

This modelling and web-based mapping study utilized data from the 2019 Malaria Indicators Survey (MIS) of the Demographic and Health Survey Program. A novel and advanced Bayesian geospatial modelling and mapping approaches were utilized to examine predictors and geographical differences in under-five malaria. The model was validated via a cross-validation approach. The study produced an interactive web-based visualization map of the malaria risk by mapping the predicted malaria prevalence at both sampled and unsampled locations.

RESULTS

In 2019, 718 (25%) of 2867 under-five children surveyed had malaria. Substantial geographical differences in under-five malaria risk were observed. ITN coverage (log-odds 4.5643, 95% credible interval = 2.4086-6.8874), travel time (log-odds 0.0057, 95% credible interval = 0.0017-0.0099) and aridity (log-odds = 0.0600, credible interval = 0.0079-0.1167) were predictive of under-five malaria in the spatial model. The overall predicted national malaria prevalence was 16.3% (standard error (SE) 8.9%) with a range of 0.7% to 51.4% in the spatial model with covariates and prevalence of 28.0% (SE 13.9%) with a range of 2.4 to 67.2% in the spatial model without covariates. Residing in parts of Central and Bono East regions was associated with the highest risk of under-five malaria after adjusting for the selected covariates.

CONCLUSION

The high-resolution interactive web-based predictive maps can be used as an effective tool in the identification of communities that require urgent and targeted interventions by programme managers and implementers. This is key as part of an overall strategy in reducing the under-five malaria burden and its associated morbidity and mortality in a country with limited public health resources where universal intervention is practically impossible.

Azithromycin distribution and childhood mortality in compliance-related subgroups in Niger: complier average causal effect and spillovers in a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Biannual azithromycin distribution to children 1-59 months old reduced all-cause mortality by 18% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.90] in an intention-to-treat analysis of a randomized controlled trial in Niger. Estimation of the effect in compliance-related subgroups can support decision making around implementation of this intervention in programmatic settings.

METHODS

The cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled design of the original trial enabled unbiased estimation of the effect of azithromycin on mortality rates in two subgroups: (i) treated children (complier average causal effect analysis); and (ii) untreated children (spillover effect analysis), using negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

In Niger, 594 eligible communities were randomized to biannual azithromycin or placebo distribution and were followed from December 2014 to August 2017, with a mean treatment coverage of 90% [standard deviation (SD) 10%] in both arms. Subgroup analyses included 2581 deaths among treated children and 245 deaths among untreated children. Among treated children, the incidence rate ratio comparing mortality in azithromycin communities to placebo communities was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.88), with mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person-years at risk) of 16.6 in azithromycin communities and 20.9 in placebo communities. Among untreated children, the incidence rate ratio was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.69, 1.21), with rates of 33.6 in azithromycin communities and 34.4 in placebo communities.

CONCLUSIONS

As expected, this analysis suggested similar efficacy among treated children compared with the intention-to-treat analysis. Though the results were consistent with a small spillover benefit to untreated children, this trial was underpowered to detect spillovers.

The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Neonate, Infant, and Child Mortality in North Africa and Middle East by Cause: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

During the past three decades, neonate, infant, and child mortality declined in North Africa and Middle East. However, there is substantial heterogeneity in mortality rates across countries.

METHODS

This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) 2019. We report the number as well as mortality rates for neonates, infants, and children by cause across 21 countries in the region since 1990.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the neonate mortality rate in the region declined from 31.9 (29.8, 34.0) to 12.2 (11.1, 13.3) per 1000 live births. Respective figures for under 5 mortality rates (U5MRs) were 79.1 (75.7, 82.7) in 1990 and 24.4 (22.3, 26.7) per 1000 live births in 2019. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years were due to under 1 year deaths: 75.9% in 1990 and 81.8% in 2019. Mortality rates in males were higher than females. The mortality rate among neonates ranged from 2.4 (2.1, 2.6) per 1000 live births in Bahrain to 25.0 (21.6, 28.4) in Afghanistan in 2019. Similarly, in 2019, the U5MR ranged from 5.0 (4.2-6.0) per 1000 live births in United Arab Emirates to 55.3 (47.9-63.5) in Afghanistan. Neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and lower respiratory infections were the three main causes of neonate, infant, and child mortality in almost all countries in the region.

CONCLUSION

In 2019, most countries in this region have achieved the SDG targets for neonate and child mortality. However, there is still substantial heterogeneity across countries.

Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Comparison

There is growing interest in producing estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Statistical models are needed to combine data from multiple data sources into estimates and projections with uncertainty. Diverse modelling approaches have been applied to this problem, making comparisons between models difficult. We propose a model class, Temporal Models for Multiple Populations (TMMPs), to facilitate both documentation of model assumptions in a standardised way and comparison across models. The class makes a distinction between the process model, which describes latent trends in the indicator interest, and the data model, which describes the data generating process of the observed data. We provide a general notation for the process model that encompasses many popular temporal modelling techniques, and we show how existing models for a variety of indicators can be written using this notation. We end with a discussion of outstanding questions and future directions.

Geographic inequalities in health intervention coverage – mapping the composite coverage index in Peru using geospatial modelling

Background

The composite coverage index (CCI) provides an integrated perspective towards universal health coverage in the context of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health. Given the sample design of most household surveys does not provide coverage estimates below the first administrative level, approaches for achieving more granular estimates are needed. We used a model-based geostatistical approach to estimate the CCI at multiple resolutions in Peru.

Methods

We generated estimates for the eight indicators on which the CCI is based for the departments, provinces, and areas of 5 × 5 km of Peru using data from two national household surveys carried out in 2018 and 2019 plus geospatial covariates. Bayesian geostatistical models were fit using the INLA-SPDE approach. We assessed model fit using cross-validation at the survey cluster level and by comparing modelled and direct survey estimates at the department-level.

Results

CCI coverage in the provinces along the coast was consistently higher than in the remainder of the country. Jungle areas in the north and east presented the lowest coverage levels and the largest gaps between and within provinces. The greatest inequalities were found, unsurprisingly, in the largest provinces where populations are scattered in jungle territory and are difficult to reach.

Conclusions

Our study highlighted provinces with high levels of inequality in CCI coverage indicating areas, mostly low-populated jungle areas, where more attention is needed. We also uncovered other areas, such as the border with Bolivia, where coverage is lower than the coastal provinces and should receive increased efforts. More generally, our results make the case for high-resolution estimates to unveil geographic inequities otherwise hidden by the usual levels of survey representativeness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14371-7.

Vulnerability in maternal, new-born, and child health in low- and middle-income countries: Findings from a scoping review

Objectives

To identify and synthesise prevailing definitions and indices of vulnerability in maternal, new-born and child health (MNCH) research and health programs in low- and middle-income countries.

Design and setting

Scoping review using Arksey and O’Malley’s framework and a Delphi survey for consensus building.

Participants

Mothers, new-borns, and children living in low- and middle-income countries were selected as participants.

Outcomes

Vulnerability as defined by the authors was deduced from the studies.

Results

A total of 61 studies were included in this scoping review. Of this, 22 were publications on vulnerability in the context of maternal health and 40 were on new-born and child health. Definitions used in included studies can be broadly categorised into three domains: biological, socioeconomic, and environmental. Eleven studies defined vulnerability in the context of maternal health, five reported on the scales used to measure vulnerability in maternal health and only one study used a validated scale. Of the 40 included studies on vulnerability in child health, 19 defined vulnerability in the context of new-born and/or child health, 15 reported on the scales used to measure vulnerability in child health and nine reported on childhood vulnerability indices. As it was difficult to synthesise the definitions, their keywords were extracted to generate new candidate definitions for vulnerability in MNCH.

Conclusion

Included studies paid greater attention to new-born/ child vulnerability than maternal vulnerability, with authors defining the terms differently. A definition which helps in improving the description of vulnerability in MNCH across various programs and researchers was arrived at. This will further help in streamlining research and interventions which can influence the design of high impact MNCH programs.

Scoping review registration

The protocol for this review was registered in the open science framework at the registered address (https://osf.io/jt6nr).

Neonatal resuscitation from a global perspective

The majority of perinatal and neonatal mortality occurs in low-resource settings in low- and middle-income countries. Access and quality of care at delivery are major determinants of the health and survival of newborn infants. Availability of basic neonatal resuscitation care at birth has improved, but basic neonatal resuscitation at birth or high-quality care continues to be inaccessible in some settings, leading to persistently high perinatal and neonatal mortality. Low-resource settings of high-income countries and socially disadvantaged communities also suffer from inadequate access to quality perinatal healthcare. Quality improvement, implementation research, and innovation should focus on improving the quality of perinatal healthcare and perinatal and neonatal outcomes in low-resource settings. The current review presents an update on issues confronting universal availability of optimal resuscitation care at birth and provides an update on ongoing efforts to address them.

The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000-2018: a geospatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission.

METHODS

A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000-2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000-2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions.

RESULTS

As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0-22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.

Risk factors for mortality in a hospitalised neonatal cohort in Botswana

OBJECTIVES

A disproportionate number of neonatal deaths occur in low/middle-income countries, with sepsis a leading contributor of mortality. In this study, we investigate risk factors for mortality in a cohort of high-risk hospitalised neonates in Botswana. Independent predictors for mortality for infants experiencing either a sepsis or a non-sepsis-related death are described.

METHODS

This is a prospective observational cohort study with infants enrolled from July to October 2018 at the neonatal unit (NNU) of Princess Marina Hospital (PMH) in Gaborone, Botswana. Data on demographic, clinical and unit-specific variables were obtained. Neonates were followed to death or discharge, including transfer to another hospital. Death was determined to be infectious versus non-infectious based on primary diagnosis listed on day of death by lead clinician on duty.

RESULTS

Our full cohort consisted of 229 patients. The overall death rate was 227 per 1000 live births, with cumulative proportion of deaths of 22.7% (n=47). Univariate analysis revealed that sepsis, extremely low birth weight (ELBW) status, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy, critical illness and infants born at home were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Our multivariate model revealed that critical illness (HR 3.07, 95% CI 1.56 to 6.03) and being born at home (HR 4.82, 95% CI 1.76 to 13.19) were independently associated with all-cause mortality. Low birth weight status was independently associated with a decreased risk of mortality (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.53). There was a high burden of infection in the cohort with more than half of infants (140, 61.14%) diagnosed with sepsis at least once during their NNU admission. Approximately 20% (n=25) of infants with sepsis died before discharge. Our univariate subanalysis of the sepsis cohort revealed that ELBW and critical illness were associated with an increased risk of death. These findings persisted in the multivariate model with HR 3.60 (95% CI 1.11 to 11.71) and HR 2.39 (95% CI 1 to 5.77), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

High rates of neonatal mortality were noted. Urgent interventions are needed to improve survival rates at PMH NNU and to prioritise care for critically ill infants at time of NNU admission, particularly those born at home and/or of ELBW.

Clinical characteristics and molecular epidemiology of human metapneumovirus in children with acute lower respiratory tract infections in China, 2017 to 2019: A multicentre prospective observational study

Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) infection is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in young children with acute respiratory illness. In this study, we prospectively collected respiratory tract samples from children who were hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infection in six hospitals in China from 2017 to 2019. HMPV was detected in 145 out of 2733 samples (5.3%) from the hospitalized children. The majority of HMPV-positive children were under the age of two (67.6%), with a median age of one year. HMPV can independently cause acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children, while all patients showed mild clinical symptoms. Of all the co-infected patients, HMPV was most commonly detected with enterovirus (EV) or rhinovirus (RhV) (38.0%, followed by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (32.0%). The highest detection rate occurred from March to May in both northern and southern China. Out of 145 HMPV positive samples, 48 were successfully typed, of which 36 strains were subgrouped into subtypes A2c (75%), eight strains were included in subtype B1 (16.7%), and four strains were included in subtype B2 (8.3%). Moreover, 16 A2c strains contained 111-nucleotide duplications in the G gene. Twenty-seven complete HMPV genomes were successfully obtained, and 25 (92.6%) strains belonged to subtype A2c, whereas one strain was included in subgroup B1 and another was included in subgroup B2. A total of 277 mutations were observed in the complete genomes of 25 A2c strains. All results presented here improve our understanding of clinical characteristics and molecular epidemiology of HMPV infection in children.

A mixed-methods study on evaluating an updated, francophone version of ETAT+ training in Madagascar

Background

Madagascar needs major efforts to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, despite the considerable reduction of child mortality during past years. In this context, implementation of emergency triage assessment and treatment (ETAT) plays an important role. In recent years, ETAT training activities rarely took place in Madagascar. To strengthen ETAT in Madagascar, a pilot training course was conducted in December 2019 at the University Hospital Mahajanga.

Objectives

This study aims to evaluate if the ETAT+ pilot training content matches clinical needs in Madagascar and whether participants achieved their learning objectives.

Methods

In this cross-sectional mixed-methods study, a 41-item questionnaire was used at the end of the ETAT+ training to evaluate their learning experience from the 12 participants (paediatricians, physicians, nurses and midwives). Six weeks after the training, guided interviews were conducted among five participants to describe how training content could be transferred into clinical practice in five health facilities.

Results

Results suggest that this pilot project designed to contribute to the re-establishment of ETAT in Madagascar meets participants’ needs and is adapted to clinical realities in terms of transmitted knowledge, skills and competencies. However, results also show that considerable multi-disciplinary efforts are needed to advance ETAT+ implementation in Madagascar.

Conclusion

Implementation processes of ETAT training programmes need re-evaluation to assure their validity to contribute to quality of care improvements efficiently. Further operational research is required to evaluate sustainable, innovative implementation strategies adapted to contexts in Madagascar.

Contributions of the study

This study aims to evaluate an updated Malagasy version of the Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment Plus (ETAT+). The training met the participants’ needs and was adapted to the clinical realities in Madagascar relating to transmitted knowledge, skills and competencies.

Pneumonia Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors among under-Five Children in Goncha Siso Enesie District, Northwest Ethiopia

Background. Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among under-five children in various localities of Ethiopia. This study was aimed to assess the prevalence of pneumonia and its associated factors among under-five children who were visiting Ginde Woyin health center, Goncha Siso Enesie District, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods. A health center-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 403 participants by a systematic random sampling technique. Data were collected using questionnaires and sputum diagnosis. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 26.0. Binary and multivariable logistic regressions were used to analyze the risk variables, and $P$ values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results. The overall prevalence of pneumonia among under-five children was 24.3% (95% CI: 20.1, 28.3). The significant predictors for under-five pneumonia identified were the use of wood as a source of fuel for cooking (AOR = 2.769; $P=0.049$ ), starting complementary food before six months of age (AOR = 2.080; P = 0.033), and mixed breastfeeding conditions (AOR = 5.229; $P=0.001$ ). The highest under-five pneumonia was observed among children of age below one year (33.6%), rural dwellers (30.4%), family sizes above five (31.8%), children from families with a monthly income of less than 1000 Ethiopian Birr (<19.03 USD) (27.8%), whose mothers were students (61.5%), houses where cooking took place in the living room (37.8%), homes that lacked windows in the kitchens (28.4%), homes that lacked windows (41.5%), and mixed breastfeeders (44.1%). Conclusion. The prevalence of under-five pneumonia in the present study was relatively high. The findings in the present study will help policy makers and program officers to design pneumonia-preventive interventions.