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Aleshin-Guendel S, Wakefield J. Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields for child mortality estimation. Biostatistics 2024:kxae030. [PMID: 39103178 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxae030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2024] [Accepted: 07/16/2024] [Indexed: 08/07/2024] Open
Abstract
The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable estimates of U5MR, necessitating the usage of smoothing models which borrow information across space and time. The assumptions of common smoothing models may be unrealistic when certain time periods or regions are expected to have shocks in mortality relative to their neighbors, which can lead to oversmoothing of U5MR estimates. In this paper, we develop a spatial and temporal smoothing approach based on Gaussian Markov random field models which incorporate knowledge of these expected shocks in mortality. We demonstrate the potential for these models to improve upon alternatives not incorporating knowledge of expected shocks in a simulation study. We apply these models to estimate U5MR in Rwanda at the national level from 1985 to 2019, a time period which includes the Rwandan civil war and genocide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Serge Aleshin-Guendel
- Center for Statistical Research and Methodology, U.S. Census Bureau, 4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC 20233, United States
| | - Jon Wakefield
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
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Sartorius V, Philibert M, Klungsoyr K, Klimont J, Szamotulska K, Drausnik Z, Velebil P, Mortensen L, Gissler M, Fresson J, Nijhuis J, Zhang WH, Källén K, Rihs TA, Tica V, Matthews R, Smith L, Zeitlin J. Neonatal Mortality Disparities by Gestational Age in European Countries. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e2424226. [PMID: 39110462 PMCID: PMC11307138 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.24226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2024] [Accepted: 05/28/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance There are wide disparities in neonatal mortality rates (NMRs, deaths <28 days of life after live birth per 1000 live births) between countries in Europe, indicating potential for improvement. Comparing country-specific patterns of births and deaths with countries with low mortality rates can facilitate the development of effective intervention strategies. Objective To investigate how these disparities are associated with the distribution of gestational age (GA) and GA-specific mortality rates. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a cross-sectional study of all live births in 14 participating European countries using routine data compiled by the Euro-Peristat Network. Live births with a GA of 22 weeks or higher from 2015 to 2020 were included. Data were analyzed from May to October 2023. Exposures GA at birth. Main Outcomes and Measures The study investigated excess neonatal mortality, defined as a rate difference relative to the pooled rate in the 3 countries with the lowest NMRs (Norway, Sweden, and Finland; hereafter termed the top 3). The Kitagawa method was used to divide this excess into the proportion explained by the GA distribution of births and by GA-specific mortality rates. A sensitivity analysis was conducted among births 24 weeks' GA or greater. Results There were 35 094 neonatal deaths among 15 123 428 live births for an overall NMR of 2.32 per 1000. The pooled NMR in the top 3 was 1.44 per 1000 (1937 of 1 342 528). Excess neonatal mortality compared with the top 3 ranged from 0.17 per 1000 in the Czech Republic to 1.82 per 1000 in Romania. Excess deaths were predominantly concentrated among births less than 28 weeks' GA (57.6% overall). Full-term births represented 22.7% of the excess deaths in Belgium, 17.8% in France, 40.6% in Romania and 17.3% in the United Kingdom. Heterogeneous patterns were observed when partitioning excess mortality into the proportion associated with the GA distribution vs GA-specific mortality. For example, these proportions were 9.2% and 90.8% in France, 58.4% and 41.6% in the United Kingdom, and 92.9% and 7.1% in Austria, respectively. These associations remained stable after removing births under 24 weeks' GA in most, but not all, countries. Conclusions and Relevance This cohort study of 14 European countries found wide NMR disparities with varying patterns by GA. This knowledge is important for developing effective strategies to reduce neonatal mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Sartorius
- CRESS, Obstetrical Perinatal and Paediatric Epidemiology Research Team, EPOPe, INSERM, INRA, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France
- Department of Neonatal Intensive Care, AP-HP, Hôpital Necker Enfants-Malades, Paris, France
| | - Marianne Philibert
- CRESS, Obstetrical Perinatal and Paediatric Epidemiology Research Team, EPOPe, INSERM, INRA, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France
| | - Kari Klungsoyr
- Division of Mental and Physical Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Jeannette Klimont
- Unit Demography and Health, Directorate Social Statistics, Statistics Austria, Vienna, Austria
| | - Katarzyna Szamotulska
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Mother and Child, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Zeljka Drausnik
- Division of Public Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Petr Velebil
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Institute for the Care of Mother and Child, Prague, Czech Republic
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Laust Mortensen
- Section for Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mika Gissler
- Department of Knowledge Brokers, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
- Region Stockholm, Academic Primary Health Care Centre, Stockholm, Sweden
- Karolinska Institutet, Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jeanne Fresson
- CRESS, Obstetrical Perinatal and Paediatric Epidemiology Research Team, EPOPe, INSERM, INRA, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France
- Direction de la Recherche, des Etudes, de l’Evaluation et des Statistiques (Drees), Paris, France
| | - Jan Nijhuis
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Maastricht University Medical Centre, MUMC+, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - Wei-Hong Zhang
- International Centre for Reproductive Health, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Karin Källén
- Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare, Department of Analysis, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Tonia A. Rihs
- Federal Statistical Office (FSO), Neuchâtel, Switzerland
| | - Vlad Tica
- Faculty of Medicine, East European Institute for Reproductive Health, Academy of Romanian Scientists, University ‘Ovidius’ Constanţa, Constanța, Romania
| | - Ruth Matthews
- Department of Population Health Sciences, College of Life Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Lucy Smith
- Department of Population Health Sciences, College of Life Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Jennifer Zeitlin
- CRESS, Obstetrical Perinatal and Paediatric Epidemiology Research Team, EPOPe, INSERM, INRA, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France
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Leulseged H, Bethencourt C, Igunza KA, Akelo V, Onyango D, Omore R, Ogbuanu IU, Ameh S, Moseray A, Kowuor D, Bassey IA, El Arifeen S, Gurley ES, Hossain MZ, Rahman A, Alam M, Assefa N, Madrid L, Alemu A, Abdullahi YY, Kotloff KL, Sow SO, Tapia MD, Kourouma N, Sissoko S, Bassat Q, Varo R, Mandomando I, Carrilho C, Rakislova N, Fernandes F, Madhi S, Dangor Z, Mahtab S, Hale M, Baillie V, du Toit J, Madewell ZJ, Blau DM, Martines RB, Mutevedzi PC, Breiman RF, Whitney CG, Rees CA. Clinicopathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of childhood causes of death in the CHAMPS network: An analysis of antemortem diagnostic inaccuracies. BMJ Paediatr Open 2024; 8:e002654. [PMID: 39032935 DOI: 10.1136/bmjpo-2024-002654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2024] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 07/23/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Determining aetiology of severe illness can be difficult, especially in settings with limited diagnostic resources, yet critical for providing life-saving care. Our objective was to describe the accuracy of antemortem clinical diagnoses in young children in high-mortality settings, compared with results of specific postmortem diagnoses obtained from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS). METHODS We analysed data collected during 2016-2022 from seven sites in Africa and South Asia. We compared antemortem clinical diagnoses from clinical records to a reference standard of postmortem diagnoses determined by expert panels at each site who reviewed the results of histopathological and microbiological testing of tissue, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid. We calculated test characteristics and 95% CIs of antemortem clinical diagnostic accuracy for the 10 most common causes of death. We classified diagnostic discrepancies as major and minor, per Goldman criteria later modified by Battle. RESULTS CHAMPS enrolled 1454 deceased young children aged 1-59 months during the study period; 881 had available clinical records and were analysed. The median age at death was 11 months (IQR 4-21 months) and 47.3% (n=417) were female. We identified a clinicopathological discrepancy in 39.5% (n=348) of deaths; 82.3% of diagnostic errors were major. The sensitivity of clinician antemortem diagnosis ranged from 26% (95% CI 14.6% to 40.3%) for non-infectious respiratory diseases (eg, aspiration pneumonia, interstitial lung disease, etc) to 82.2% (95% CI 72.7% to 89.5%) for diarrhoeal diseases. Antemortem clinical diagnostic specificity ranged from 75.2% (95% CI 72.1% to 78.2%) for diarrhoeal diseases to 99.0% (95% CI 98.1% to 99.6%) for HIV. CONCLUSIONS Antemortem clinical diagnostic errors were common for young children who died in areas with high childhood mortality rates. To further reduce childhood mortality in resource-limited settings, there is an urgent need to improve antemortem diagnostic capability through advances in the availability of diagnostic testing and clinical skills.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haleluya Leulseged
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
- Hararghe Health Research, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christine Bethencourt
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Pediatrics Residency Program, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | | | - Victor Akelo
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - Richard Omore
- Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Ikechukwu U Ogbuanu
- Crown Agents, Freetown, Sierra Leone
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Soter Ameh
- Crown Agents, Freetown, Sierra Leone
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Calabar, Calabar, Cross River, Nigeria
- Bernard Lown Scholars Program in Cardiovascular Health, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | | | | | - Shams El Arifeen
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Emily S Gurley
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Afruna Rahman
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Muntasir Alam
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Nega Assefa
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Lola Madrid
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Addisu Alemu
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Yasir Y Abdullahi
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Samba O Sow
- Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins-Mali, Bamako, Mali
| | - Milagritos D Tapia
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Nana Kourouma
- Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins-Mali, Bamako, Mali
| | - Seydou Sissoko
- Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins-Mali, Bamako, Mali
| | - Quique Bassat
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, 08010, Barcelona, Spain
- Pediatrics Department, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Universitat de Barcelona, Esplugues, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Rosauro Varo
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Inacio Mandomando
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Carla Carrilho
- Department of Pathology, Maputo Central Hospital, Maputo, Mozambique
- Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Natalia Rakislova
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Fabiola Fernandes
- Department of Pathology, Maputo Central Hospital, Maputo, Mozambique
- Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Shabir Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Ziyaad Dangor
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sana Mahtab
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Martin Hale
- Department of Anatomical Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Vicky Baillie
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jeanie du Toit
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Zachary J Madewell
- Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Dianna M Blau
- Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Roosecelis B Martines
- Infectious Diseases Pathology Branch, NCEZID, DHCPP, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - Robert F Breiman
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Infectious Diseases and Oncology Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Chris A Rees
- Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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Kawakatsu Y, Mosser JF, Adolph C, Baffoe P, Cheshi F, Aiga H, Watkins DA, Sherr KH. High-resolution mapping of essential maternal and child health service coverage in Nigeria: a machine learning approach. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e080135. [PMID: 38858137 PMCID: PMC11168136 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-080135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND National-level coverage estimates of maternal and child health (MCH) services mask district-level and community-level geographical inequities. The purpose of this study is to estimate grid-level coverage of essential MCH services in Nigeria using machine learning techniques. METHODS Essential MCH services in this study included antenatal care, facility-based delivery, childhood vaccinations and treatments of childhood illnesses. We estimated generalised additive models (GAMs) and gradient boosting regressions (GB) for each essential MCH service using data from five national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 and geospatial socioeconomic, environmental and physical characteristics. Using the best-performed model for each service, we map predicted coverage at 1 km2 and 5 km2 spatial resolutions in urban and rural areas, respectively. RESULTS GAMs consistently outperformed GB models across a range of essential MCH services, demonstrating low systematic prediction errors. High-resolution maps revealed stark geographic disparities in MCH service coverage, especially between rural and urban areas and among different states and service types. Temporal trends indicated an overall increase in MCH service coverage from 2003 to 2018, although with variations by service type and location. Priority areas with lower coverage of both maternal and vaccination services were identified, mostly located in the northern parts of Nigeria. CONCLUSION High-resolution spatial estimates can guide geographic prioritisation and help develop better strategies for implementation plans, allowing limited resources to be targeted to areas with lower coverage of essential MCH services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshito Kawakatsu
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jonathan F Mosser
- Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Christopher Adolph
- Department of Political Science, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | - Hirotsugu Aiga
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Department of Global Health, George Washington University School of Public Health and Health Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - D A Watkins
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Kenneth H Sherr
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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An R, Zhou X, He P, Lyu C, Wang D. Inulin mitigated antibiotic-induced intestinal microbiota dysbiosis - a comparison of different supplementation stages. Food Funct 2024; 15:5429-5438. [PMID: 38644728 DOI: 10.1039/d3fo05186b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/23/2024]
Abstract
Antibiotics are unavoidable to be prescribed to subjects due to different reasons, and they decrease the relative abundance of beneficial microbes. Inulin, a fructan type of polysaccharide carbohydrate, on the contrary, could promote the growth of beneficial microbes. In this study, we investigated the effect of inulin on antibiotic-induced intestinal microbiota dysbiosis and compared their overall impact at different supplementation stages, i.e., post-antibiotic, at the time of antibiotic administration or prior to antibiotic treatment, in the C57BL/6 mice model. Although supplementation of inulin after antibiotic treatment could aid in the reconstruction of the intestinal microbial community its overall impact was limited and no remarkable differences were identified as compared to the spontaneous restoration. On the contrary, the effect of simultaneous and pre-supplementation was more remarkable. Simultaneous inulin supplementation significantly mitigated the antibiotic-induced dysbiosis based on alterations as evaluated using weighted and unweighted UniFrac distance between baseline and after treatment. Moreover, comparing the effect of simultaneous supplementation, pre-supplemented inulin further mitigated the antibiotic-induced dysbiosis, especially on the relative abundance of dominant microbes. Collectively, the current study found that the use of inulin could alleviate antibiotic-induced microbiota dysbiosis, and the best supplementation stage (overall effect as evaluated by beta diversity distance changes) was before the antibiotic treatment, then simultaneous supplementation and supplementation after the antibiotic treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ran An
- Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
| | - Xilong Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Dairy Biotechnology, Dairy Research Institute, Bright Dairy and Food Co., Ltd, Shanghai, China
| | - Penglin He
- Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
| | - Chenang Lyu
- Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
| | - Dapeng Wang
- Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
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Naghavi M, Ong KL, Aali A, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi MMK, Adal TG, Adamu AA, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Admass BAA, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide FD, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Aldawsari KA, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alema HB, Alemayohu MA, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom AA, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atlaw HW, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew AF, Aweke AM, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, B DB, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik PC, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basting AVL, Basu S, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush AH, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Béjot Y, Belay SA, Belete CM, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender RG, Bensenor IM, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Berice BN, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew BD, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boampong MS, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, Bouaoud S, Boustany A, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Brazo-Sayavera J, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton G, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalheiro CG, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Chang CK, Chang JC, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu 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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2100-2132. [PMID: 38582094 PMCID: PMC11126520 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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McLaughlin SA, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehari M, Mehlman ML, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehrotra R, Mekonnen MM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mindlin SN, Minelli G, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Minja NW, Mirdamadi N, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirinezhad SK, Mirmosayyeb O, Mirutse MK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Misgana T, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mittal M, Moazen B, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammad-pour S, Mohammadshahi M, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moradpour F, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosaddeghi Heris R, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Mostafavi H, Mostofinejad A, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulita F, Muniyandi M, Munjal K, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Myung W, Nabhan AF, Nafukho FM, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Naimzada MD, Nair S, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nasiri MJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nayyar AK, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negash H, Negero AK, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi MH, Nena E, Nepal S, Nesbit OD, Newton CRJ, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen TT, Nguyen VT, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Nizam MA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norouzian Baghani A, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunsakin RE, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okidi L, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olanipekun TO, Olatubi MI, Olivas-Martinez A, Oliveira GMM, Oliver S, Olorukooba AA, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Oluwatunase GO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Opio JN, Ordak M, Orellana ER, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Orru H, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ortiz-Prado E, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Oyeyemi IT, Oyeyemi OT, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padubidri JR, Pahlavikhah Varnosfaderani M, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pana A, Panahi P, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pando-Robles V, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Pantazopoulos I, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasupula DK, Patel JR, Patel SK, Pathan AR, Patil A, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira G, Pereira J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pezzani R, Pham HT, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Poudel L, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prajapati VK, Prakash V, Prasad CP, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qaisar R, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qian G, Quan NK, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafiei Alavi SN, Rafique I, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman T, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Rajaa S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramadan H, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rani S, Ranjan S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Reyes LF, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riaz MA, Ribeiro AI, Ribeiro DC, Rickard J, Rios-Blancas MJ, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohilla R, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshanzamir S, Rostamian M, Roy B, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S M, S N C, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Sabbatucci M, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sacco S, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi M, Safi S, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salahi S, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samara KA, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanganyado E, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Sanna F, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar C, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saulam J, Sawyer SM, Saxena S, Saya GK, Sayadi Y, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senapati S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sertsu A, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi SA, Shafaat A, Shafaat O, Shafie M, Shafiee A, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shakil H, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Shariff M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shenoy MM, Shetty BSK, Shetty RS, Shey RA, Shiani A, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simões JP, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh M, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Sohrabi H, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solmi M, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Starnes JR, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Susanty S, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taborda-Barata LM, Tabuchi T, Tadesse BT, Taheri A, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tang HK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tebeje TM, Tefera YM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye SH, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tohidast SA, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truong VT, Truyen TTTT, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ulhaq I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Umesh A, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Vacante M, Vahdani AM, Vaithinathan AG, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Varma SA, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Veerman LJ, Venketasubramanian N, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Verma P, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vieira RJ, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Visontay R, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Volovici V, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wado YD, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Wool EE, Woolf AD, Wu D, Wulandari RD, Xiao H, Xu B, Xu X, Yadav L, Yaghoubi S, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Ye P, Yesera GE, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zahedi M, Zahid MN, Zahir M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:1989-2056. [PMID: 38484753 PMCID: PMC11126395 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vlachadis N, Loukas N, Antonakopoulos N, Vrachnis D, Zikopoulos A, Stavros S, Machairiotis N, Siori M, Drakakis P, Vrachnis N. Infant, Neonatal, and Post-neonatal Mortality in Greece: A Nationwide Time-Trend Analysis. Cureus 2024; 16:e61418. [PMID: 38947716 PMCID: PMC11214723 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.61418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/31/2024] [Indexed: 07/02/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Infant mortality is a crucial perinatal measure and is also regarded as an important public health indicator. This study aimed to comprehensively present time trends in infant, neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality in Greece. METHODS The annual infant mortality rate (IMR), the neonatal mortality rate (NMR), and the post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) were calculated based on official national data obtained from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, spanning 67 years from 1956 to 2022. The time trends of the mortality rates were evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis, and the annual percent changes (APC) and the overall average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS The IMR exhibited accelerating declines over more than 50 years, with an APC of -1.9 (-2.8 to -1.0) from 1956 to 1968, -5.4 (-5.6 to -5.2) from 1968 to 1999, and -7.3 (-8.9 to -5.7) between 1999 and 2008. In 2008, IMR reached its all-time low of 2.7 per 1,000 live births, down 16.6-fold from its peak at 44.1 per 1,000 live births in 1957. This improving trend was reversed following the onset of the economic crisis in the country, leading to a 57% increase in IMR from 2008 to 2016, with an upward trend APC of 3.4 (1.2 to 5.5). In the recent period 2016-2022, there was an improvement with an APC of -3.7 (-6.2 to -1.1), resulting in an IMR of 3.1 per 1,000 live births in 2022. The decrease in IMR was estimated to have prevented 209,109 infant deaths in the country from 1958 to 2022. From 1956 to 2022, the IMR decreased with an AAPC of -3.9 (-4.3 to -3.4), while the PNMR saw a decline with an AAPC of -4.5 (-5.1 to -3.9) and the NMR with an AAPC of -3.2 (-3.7 to -2.6). CONCLUSION Greece achieved an impressive decrease in infant mortality rates, but this progress was halted and completely reversed during the economic crisis. Although there have been some recent improvements after the country's economic recovery, the rates have yet to reach pre-crisis levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolaos Vlachadis
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, General Hospital of Messinia, Kalamata, GRC
| | - Nikolaos Loukas
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
| | | | - Dionysios Vrachnis
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
| | - Athanasios Zikopoulos
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
| | - Sofoklis Stavros
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
| | - Nikolaos Machairiotis
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
| | - Maria Siori
- Primary Health Center of Byron, National Health System of Greece, Athens, GRC
| | - Petros Drakakis
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
| | - Nikolaos Vrachnis
- Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Medical School, Attiko Hospital, Athens, GRC
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Heath-Freudenthal A, Estrada A, von Alvensleben I, Julian CG. Surviving birth at high altitude. J Physiol 2024. [PMID: 38520695 DOI: 10.1113/jp284554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024] Open
Abstract
This Symposium Review examines challenges to surviving birth and infancy at high altitudes. Chronic exposure to the environmental hypoxia of high altitudes increases the incidence of maternal vascular disorders of pregnancy characterized by placental insufficiency, restricted fetal growth and preterm delivery, and impairs pulmonary vascular health during infancy. While each condition independently contributes to excess morbidity and mortality in early life, evidence indicates vascular disorders of pregnancy and infantile pulmonary vascular dysfunction are intertwined. By integrating our recent scientific and clinical observations in Bolivia with existing literature, we propose potential avenues to reduce the infant mortality burden at high altitudes and reduce pulmonary vascular disease in highland neonates, and emphasize the need for further research to address unresolved questions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Colleen G Julian
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, USA
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Rees CA, Ideh RC, Kisenge R, Kamara J, Coleman-Nekar YJG, Samma A, Godfrey E, Manji HK, Sudfeld CR, Westbrook AL, Niescierenko M, Morris CR, Whitney CG, Breiman RF, Duggan CP, Manji KP. Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e079389. [PMID: 38365298 PMCID: PMC10875550 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-079389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality. METHODS We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions. RESULTS There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]). CONCLUSIONS A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Readon C Ideh
- Department of Pediatrics, John F Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Rodrick Kisenge
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Julia Kamara
- Department of Pediatrics, John F Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | | | - Abraham Samma
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Evance Godfrey
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Hussein K Manji
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
- Accident and Emergency Department, The Aga Khan Health Services, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Christopher R Sudfeld
- Departments of Nutrition and Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Boston, USA
| | - Adrianna L Westbrook
- Pediatric Biostatistics Core, Department of Pediatrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Michelle Niescierenko
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Pediatrics and Emergency Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Claudia R Morris
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Cynthia G Whitney
- Emory Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Robert F Breiman
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Infectious Diseases and Oncology Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Christopher P Duggan
- Departments of Nutrition and Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Boston, USA
- Center for Nutrition, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Karim P Manji
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
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Sikder S, Toha M, Anik AH, Sultan MB, Alam M, Parvin F, Tareq SM. A comprehensive review on the fate and impact of antibiotic residues in the environment and public health: A special focus on the developing countries. WATER ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH : A RESEARCH PUBLICATION OF THE WATER ENVIRONMENT FEDERATION 2024; 96:e10987. [PMID: 38342763 DOI: 10.1002/wer.10987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2023] [Revised: 01/07/2024] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
The widespread application of antibiotics in human and veterinary medicine has led to the pervasive presence of antibiotic residues in the environment, posing a potential hazard to public health. This comprehensive review aims to scrutinize the fate and impact of antibiotic residues, with a particular focus on the context of developing nations. The investigation delves into the diverse pathways facilitating the entry of antibiotics into the environment and meticulously examines their effects on human health. The review delineates the current state of antibiotic residues, evaluates their exposure in developing nations, and elucidates existing removal methodologies. Additionally, it probes into the factors contributing to the endurance and ecotoxicity of antibiotic residues, correlating these aspects with usage rates and associated mortalities in these nations. The study also investigates removal techniques for antibiotic residues, assessing their efficiency in environmental compartments. The concurrent emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, engendered by antibiotic residues, and their adverse ecological threats underscore the necessity for enhanced regulations, vigilant surveillance programs, and the adoption of sustainable alternatives. The review underlines the pivotal role of public education and awareness campaigns in promoting responsible antibiotic use. The synthesis concludes with strategic recommendations, strengthening the imperative for further research encompassing comprehensive monitoring, ecotoxicological effects, alternative strategies, socio-economic considerations, and international collaborations, all aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of antibiotic residues on human health and the environment. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Antibiotic residues are widely distributed in different environmental compartments. Developing countries use more antibiotics than developed countries. Human and veterinary wastes are one of the most responsible sources of antibiotic pollution. Antibiotics interact with biological systems and trigger pharmacological reactions at low doses. Antibiotics can be removed using modern biological, chemical, and physical-chemical techniques.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadia Sikder
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh
- Department of Environmental Science and Disaster Management, Daffodil International University, Birulia, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Toha
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh
| | - Amit Hasan Anik
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh
| | - Maisha Binte Sultan
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh
| | - Mahbub Alam
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Fahmida Parvin
- Hydrobiogeochemistry and Pollution Control Laboratory, Department of Environmental Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Shafi M Tareq
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh
- Hydrobiogeochemistry and Pollution Control Laboratory, Department of Environmental Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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12
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Singer BJ, Coulibaly JT, Park HJ, Andrews JR, Bogoch II, Lo NC. Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2315463120. [PMID: 38181058 PMCID: PMC10786280 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2315463120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Hotspots of Schistosoma transmission-communities where infection prevalence does not decline adequately with mass drug administration-present a key challenge in eliminating schistosomiasis. Current approaches to identify hotspots require evaluation 2-5 y after a baseline survey and subsequent mass drug administration. Here, we develop statistical models to predict hotspots at baseline prior to treatment comparing three common hotspot definitions, using epidemiologic, survey-based, and remote sensing data. In a reanalysis of randomized trials in 589 communities in five endemic countries, a regression model predicts whether Schistosoma mansoni infection prevalence will exceed the WHO threshold of 10% in year 5 ("prevalence hotspot") with 86% sensitivity, 74% specificity, and 93% negative predictive value (NPV; assuming 30% hotspot prevalence), and a regression model for Schistosoma haematobium achieves 90% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and 96% NPV. A random forest model predicts whether S. mansoni moderate and heavy infection prevalence will exceed a public health goal of 1% in year 5 ("intensity hotspot") with 92% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 96% NPV, and a boosted trees model for S. haematobium achieves 77% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and 91% NPV. Baseline prevalence is a top predictor in all models. Prediction is less accurate in countries not represented in training data and for a third hotspot definition based on relative prevalence reduction over time ("persistent hotspot"). These models may be a tool to prioritize high-risk communities for more frequent surveillance or intervention against schistosomiasis, but prediction of hotspots remains a challenge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin J. Singer
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94304
| | - Jean T. Coulibaly
- Unité de Formation et de Recherche Biosciences, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
- Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Allschwil4123Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel4001, Switzerland
| | - Hailey J. Park
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94304
| | - Jason R. Andrews
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94304
| | - Isaac I. Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ONM5S 1A8, Canada
| | - Nathan C. Lo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94304
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Khosravi A, Mohamadi E, Sheidaei A, Shafiee G, Heshmat R, Olyaeemanesh A, Takian A. Child mortality inequalities and socioeconomic determinants of health in Iran, 2016-2018. J Public Health Policy 2023; 44:535-550. [PMID: 37898702 DOI: 10.1057/s41271-023-00448-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/30/2023]
Abstract
Measuring health inequalities is essential to inform policy making and for monitoring implementation to reduce avoidable and unfair differences in health status. We conducted a geospatial analysis of child mortality in Iran using death records from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education from 2016 to 2018 stratified by sex, age, province, and district, and household expenditure and income survey data from the Statistical Center of Iran collected in 2017. We applied multilevel mixed-effect models and detected significant inequality in child mortality and the impact of socioeconomic factors, especially household income. We advocate for using mortality rate for young children (< 5 years old) as an indicator for assessing the impact of interventions to reduce inequalities among various socioeconomic groups. We also recommend to design and implement comprehensive and longitudinal data collection systems for accurate, regular, and specific monitoring of health inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ardeshir Khosravi
- Health Equity Research Center (HERC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
- Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Efat Mohamadi
- Health Equity Research Center (HERC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Sheidaei
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
| | - Gita Shafiee
- Chronic Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
| | - Ramin Heshmat
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran.
| | - Alireza Olyaeemanesh
- Health Equity Research Center (HERC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
- National Institute of Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
| | - Amirhossein Takian
- Health Equity Research Center (HERC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran.
- Department of Global Health & Public Policy, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Poursina Avenue, Qods Street, Enqelab Square, Tehran, Iran.
- Department of Health Management, Policy & Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran.
- National Center for Health Insurance Research, Tehran, Iran.
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Zerfu TA, Nguyen G, Duncan AJ, Baltenweck I, Brown F, Iannotti LL, McNeill G. Associations between livestock keeping, morbidity and nutritional status of children and women in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review. Nutr Res Rev 2023; 36:526-543. [PMID: 36522652 DOI: 10.1017/s0954422422000233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Livestock keeping can positively influence the nutritional status of populations and households through increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) and other indirect pathways, but can also adversely affect health by increasing the risk of diseases. We conducted a systematic review synthesising the current state of knowledge on the associations among livestock keeping, infectious disease and the nutritional status of children under 5 years and women of reproductive age in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). A comprehensive search of 12 electronic databases and grey literature sources published from 1991 to the end of December 2020 was conducted. Investigations exploring relationships between livestock keeping and risk of infectious disease transmission and nutritional status were selected using pre-defined inclusion criteria. After screening and filtering of 34,402 unique references, 176 references were included in the final synthesis. Most (160/176, 90.1%) of the references included in the final synthesis were from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. About two out of every five (42%) studies reviewed showed that livestock production is associated with improved height-for-age Z scores (HAZ) and weight-for-length/height Z scores (WHZ), while close to a third (30.7%) with improved weight-for-age Z scores (WAZ). Similarly, livestock production showed a positive or neutral relationship with women's nutritional status in almost all the references that reported on the topic. Conversely, four-fifths (66/81, 79.5%) of the references reporting on infection and morbidity outcomes indicated that livestock keeping is linked to a wide range of infectious disease outcomes, which are spread primarily through water, food and insects. In conclusion, in many LMIC settings, livestock production is associated with better nutritional outcomes but also a higher risk of disease transmission or morbidity among women and children.This review was prospectively registered on PROSPERO 2020 [CRD42020193622].
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Affiliation(s)
- Taddese Alemu Zerfu
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Giang Nguyen
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Alan J Duncan
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Fiona Brown
- Library and University Collections, Information Services, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lora L Iannotti
- Brown School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Geraldine McNeill
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Xue T, Li J, Tong M, Fan X, Li P, Wang R, Li Y, Zheng Y, Li J, Guan T, Zhu T. Stillbirths attributable to open fires and their geographic disparities in non-Western countries. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2023; 334:122170. [PMID: 37451590 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2023] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
Due to global warming, an increased number of open fires is becoming a major contributor to PM2.5 pollution and thus a threat to public health. However, the burden of stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM2.5 is unknown. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a co-occurrence of high baseline stillbirth rates and frequent firestorms, which may lead to a geographic disparity. Across 54 LMICs, we conducted a self-matched case-control study, making stillbirths comparable to the corresponding livebirths in terms of time-invariant characteristics (e.g., genetics) and duration of gestational exposure. We established a joint-exposure-response function (JERF) by simultaneously associating stillbirth with fire- and non-fire-sourced PM2.5 concentrations, which were estimated by fusing multi-source data, such as chemical transport model simulations and satellite observations. During 2000-2014, 35,590 pregnancies were selected from multiple Demographic and Health Surveys. In each mother, a case of stillbirth was compared to her livebirth(s) based on gestational exposure to fire-sourced PM2.5. We further applied the JERF to assess stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM2.5 in 136 non-Western countries. The disparity was evaluated using the Gini index. The risk of stillbirth increased by 17.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-35.7%) per 10 μg/m3 increase in fire-sourced PM2.5. In 2014, referring to a minimum-risk exposure level of 10 μg/m3, total and fire-sourced PM2.5 contributed to 922,860 (95% CI: 578,451-1,183,720) and 49,951 (95% CI: 3,634-92,629) stillbirths, of which 10% were clustered within the 6.4% and 0.6% highest-exposure pregnancies, respectively. The Gini index of stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM2.5 was 0.65, much higher than for total PM2.5 (0.28). Protecting pregnant women against PM2.5 exposure during wildfires is critical to avoid stillbirths, as the burden of fire-associated stillbirths leads to a geographic disparity in maternal health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Xue
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management and Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
| | - Jiajianghui Li
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China.
| | - Mingkun Tong
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China.
| | - Xinguang Fan
- Department of Sociology, Peking University, Beijing, China.
| | - Pengfei Li
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; National Institute of Health Data Science, Peking University, Beijing, China.
| | - Ruohan Wang
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China.
| | - Yanshun Li
- Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA.
| | - Yixuan Zheng
- Center of Air Quality Simulation and System Analysis, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing, China.
| | - Jiwei Li
- School of Computer Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
| | - Tianjia Guan
- Department of Health Policy, School of Health Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, China
| | - Tong Zhu
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management and Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
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16
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Li D, Pavlovitch-Bedzyk AJ, Ebinger JE, Khan A, Hamideh M, Merchant A, Figueiredo JC, Cheng S, Davis MM, McGovern DPB, Melmed GY, Xu AM, Braun J. A Paratope-Enhanced Method to Determine Breadth and Depth TCR Clonal Metrics of the Private Human T-Cell Vaccine Response after SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:14223. [PMID: 37762524 PMCID: PMC10531868 DOI: 10.3390/ijms241814223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Revised: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Quantitative metrics for vaccine-induced T-cell responses are an important need for developing correlates of protection and their use in vaccine-based medical management and population health. Molecular TCR analysis is an appealing strategy but currently requires a targeted methodology involving complex integration of ex vivo data (antigen-specific functional T-cell cytokine responses and TCR molecular responses) that uncover only public antigen-specific metrics. Here, we describe an untargeted private TCR method that measures breadth and depth metrics of the T-cell response to vaccine challenge using a simple pre- and post-vaccine subject sampling, TCR immunoseq analysis, and a bioinformatic approach using self-organizing maps and GLIPH2. Among 515 subjects undergoing SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, we found that breadth and depth metrics were moderately correlated between the targeted public TCR response and untargeted private TCR response methods. The untargeted private TCR method was sufficiently sensitive to distinguish subgroups of potential clinical significance also observed using public TCR methods (the reduced T-cell vaccine response with age and the paradoxically elevated T-cell vaccine response of patients on anti-TNF immunotherapy). These observations suggest the promise of this untargeted private TCR method to produce T-cell vaccine-response metrics in an antigen-agnostic and individual-autonomous context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dalin Li
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (D.L.); (A.K.); (M.H.); (D.P.B.M.); (G.Y.M.)
| | - Ana Jimena Pavlovitch-Bedzyk
- Computational and Systems Immunology Program, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; (A.J.P.-B.); (M.M.D.)
| | - Joseph E. Ebinger
- Department of Cardiology, Smidt Heart Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (J.E.E.); (S.C.)
| | - Abdul Khan
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (D.L.); (A.K.); (M.H.); (D.P.B.M.); (G.Y.M.)
| | - Mohamed Hamideh
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (D.L.); (A.K.); (M.H.); (D.P.B.M.); (G.Y.M.)
| | - Akil Merchant
- Cedars-Sinai Cancer and Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (A.M.); (J.C.F.); (A.M.X.)
| | - Jane C. Figueiredo
- Cedars-Sinai Cancer and Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (A.M.); (J.C.F.); (A.M.X.)
| | - Susan Cheng
- Department of Cardiology, Smidt Heart Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (J.E.E.); (S.C.)
| | - Mark M. Davis
- Computational and Systems Immunology Program, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; (A.J.P.-B.); (M.M.D.)
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Dermot P. B. McGovern
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (D.L.); (A.K.); (M.H.); (D.P.B.M.); (G.Y.M.)
| | - Gil Y. Melmed
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (D.L.); (A.K.); (M.H.); (D.P.B.M.); (G.Y.M.)
| | - Alexander M. Xu
- Cedars-Sinai Cancer and Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (A.M.); (J.C.F.); (A.M.X.)
| | - Jonathan Braun
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA; (D.L.); (A.K.); (M.H.); (D.P.B.M.); (G.Y.M.)
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Zeng M, Niu L. Exploring spatiotemporal trends and impacts of health resources and services on under-5 mortality in West African countries, 2010-2019: a spatial data analysis. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1193319. [PMID: 37771822 PMCID: PMC10524609 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1193319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Background West African countries experienced the highest under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), the lowest life expectancy, and the poorest economic development. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal trend of U5MR and spatial spillover effects of health resources and services to provide a basis for establishing health policies and international cooperative mechanisms in West Africa. Methods We retrieved data from the World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory, the United Nations Human Development Report, and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and Moran's I method were used to examine the temporal trend and spatial dependence of U5MR, respectively. Spatial regression analysis was used to examine the spatial spillover effects. Results The long-term downward trends in U5MR were divided into multiple segments by two or three change points in 2013, 2014, or 2015, and the annual percentage change after 2015 was higher than before 2015. Global Moran's I was positive, significantly indicating positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased from 0.2850 (p = 0.0210) to 0.3597 (p = 0.0080). Based on spatial regression analysis, human development index (HDI), physicians density, nurses and midwives density, health center density, percentage of infants lacking immunization for diphtheria and measles, and coverage rate of at least one antenatal visit had negative spatial spillover effects on U5MR. HDI had the strongest negative correlation (β = -0.0187 to -0.1054, p < 0.0001). Current health expenditure (CHE) per capita had positive spatial spillover effects on U5MR. Conclusion This study revealed the spatiotemporal trend of U5MR in West African countries and spatial spillover effects of health resources and services. Promoting economic development, increasing health human resources, health expenditure, vaccination rate, antenatal care coverage, and the proportion of health professionals attending births not only reduced the local U5MR but also exerted spatial spillover effects on adjacent countries. The West African Health Organization may consider regional spillover mechanisms to develop regional health policy and intervention cooperation mechanisms, which will contribute to achieving the sustainable development goal on U5MR, Africa Agenda 2063, and universal health coverage.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lu Niu
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China
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Wu Y, Zhang X, Lin Z, Ding C, Wu Y, Chen Y, Wang D, Yi X, Chen F. Changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration among under-5 children from 1990 to 2019. Front Pediatr 2023; 11:1235308. [PMID: 37727616 PMCID: PMC10506258 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2023.1235308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background To evaluate the changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration (FBA) among children under 5 years old at regional, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels between 1990 and 2019. Methods Data on FBA was derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 database on pulmonary aspiration and foreign body in airway. The means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The temporal trends were represented by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) using Joinpoint regression. Results Globally, FBA caused 109.6 (95% UI: 69.5, 175.7) per 100,000 incidence and 317.9 (95% UI: 270.7, 372.4) per 100,000 DALYs under 5 years old in 2019. Many European countries (such as Italy, Netherlands, Iceland, etc.) showed a high incidence rate, but did not cause a large disease burden (DALYs all less than 200 per 100,000). Compared to 1990, although a decrease in both incidence and DALYs occurred in 2019, the Joinpoint regression showed an increasing trend in incidence rate from 2014 to 2019 [APC: both (2.10), female (2.25), male (1.98), P < 0.05)], especially China, Netherlands, and Malta. Despite the lower incidence rate in early neonatal group and middle SDI areas, they instead resulted in higher DALYs than other age groups and areas. Conclusion Although declines occurred in incidence and DALYs of FBA among children under 5 years of age from 1990 to 2014, an upward trend began to emerge from 2014 to 2019. The incidence and DALY rates were correlated with age and SDI. Increased efforts are needed to improve the necessary monitoring and reporting systems, hazard assessment, and public education activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuying Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Xin Zhang
- Fujian Branch of Shanghai Children’s Medical Center, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Children’s Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Zaigang Lin
- Laboratory Animal Center, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Chenyu Ding
- Department of Neurosurgery, Neurosurgery Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Yuxuan Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Yue Chen
- Department of Neurosurgery, Neurosurgery Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Desheng Wang
- Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China
| | - Xuehan Yi
- Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China
| | - Fa Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
- Clinical Research Unit, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China
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Xue T, Wang R, Tong M, Kelly FJ, Liu H, Li J, Li P, Qiu X, Gong J, Shang J, Zhu T. Estimating the exposure-response function between long-term ozone exposure and under-5 mortality in 55 low-income and middle-income countries: a retrospective, multicentre, epidemiological study. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e736-e746. [PMID: 37673544 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00165-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Revised: 07/02/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In 2021, WHO suggested new target concentration limits for long-term exposure to ambient ozone. However, the harmful effects of ozone on vulnerable children have not been sufficiently studied. We aimed to evaluate the association between long-term ozone exposure and mortality in children younger than 5 years (hereafter denoted under-5 mortality) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to estimate this mortality burden for 97 LMICs. METHODS By combining information from 128 Demographic and Health Surveys, we evaluated the association between the survival status of more than 1·2 million children younger than 5 years from 2457 sampling strata in 55 LMICs and the average peak-season ozone concentration during the life course, using a fixed-effects Cox model. A non-linear exposure-response function was developed by integrating the marginal effects of within-strata variation in exposure. We extrapolated the function obtained from the 55 LMICs to estimate the under-5 mortality burden attributable to ozone exposure in 97 LMICs, in which more than 95% of global deaths in this age group occur. FINDINGS The fixed-effects model showed a robust association between ozone and under-5 mortality. According to the fully adjusted linear model, an increment of 10 ppb in the life-course average peak-season ozone concentration was associated with a 6·4% (95% CI 2·4-10·7) increase in the risk of under-5 mortality. The non-linear exposure-response function showed a sublinear curvature with a threshold, suggesting that the effect of ozone exposure was non-significant at concentrations lower than the first-stage interim target (100 μg/m3) recommended by WHO. Using this function, we estimate that, in 2010, long-term ozone exposure contributed to 153 361 (95% CI 17 077-276 768; 2·3% [0·3-4·1]) deaths of children younger than 5 years in 97 LMICs, which is equivalent to 56·8% of all ozone-related deaths in adults (269 785) in these countries. From 2003 to 2017, the ozone-related under-5 mortality burden decreased in most of the 97 LMICs. INTERPRETATION Long-term exposure to ozone concentrations higher than the WHO first-stage interim target is a risk factor for under-5 mortality, and ozone exposure contributes substantially to mortality in this age group in LMICs. Increased efforts should be made to control ambient ozone pollution as this will lead to positive health benefits. FUNDING Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China and China National Natural Science Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Xue
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou, China.
| | - Ruohan Wang
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Mingkun Tong
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Frank J Kelly
- Environmental Research Group, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Hengyi Liu
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Jiajianghui Li
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China
| | - Pengfei Li
- Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xinghua Qiu
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management, Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jicheng Gong
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management, Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Shang
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management, Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Tong Zhu
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management, Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
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Allorant A, Fullman N, Leslie HH, Sarr M, Gueye D, Eliakimu E, Wakefield J, Dieleman JL, Pigott D, Puttkammer N, Reiner RC. A small area model to assess temporal trends and sub-national disparities in healthcare quality. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4555. [PMID: 37507373 PMCID: PMC10382513 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40234-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Monitoring subnational healthcare quality is important for identifying and addressing geographic inequities. Yet, health facility surveys are rarely powered to support the generation of estimates at more local levels. With this study, we propose an analytical approach for estimating both temporal and subnational patterns of healthcare quality indicators from health facility survey data. This method uses random effects to account for differences between survey instruments; space-time processes to leverage correlations in space and time; and covariates to incorporate auxiliary information. We applied this method for three countries in which at least four health facility surveys had been conducted since 1999 - Kenya, Senegal, and Tanzania - and estimated measures of sick-child care quality per WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) guidelines at programmatic subnational level, between 1999 and 2020. Model performance metrics indicated good out-of-sample predictive validity, illustrating the potential utility of geospatial statistical models for health facility data. This method offers a way to jointly estimate indicators of healthcare quality over space and time, which could then provide insights to decision-makers and health service program managers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrien Allorant
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hannah H Leslie
- Division of Prevention Science, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Moussa Sarr
- Institut de Recherche en Santé de Surveillance Epidémiologique et de Formation, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Daouda Gueye
- Institut de Recherche en Santé de Surveillance Epidémiologique et de Formation, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Eliudi Eliakimu
- Health Quality Assurance Unit, Ministry of Health, Dodoma, Tanzania
| | - Jon Wakefield
- Department of Statistics and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joseph L Dieleman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nancy Puttkammer
- International Training and Education Center for Health (I-TECH), Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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21
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The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2023; 402:313-335. [PMID: 37393924 PMCID: PMC10375221 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)00860-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. METHODS In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. FINDINGS In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. INTERPRETATION Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. FUNDING The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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22
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Dong J, Li X. Lead pollution-related health of children in China: Disparity, challenge, and policy. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 882:163383. [PMID: 37068684 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Lead (Pb) is a neurotoxic metal, and no level of lead exposure is safe for children. China has still experienced problems on child lead poisoning even though the Chinese government has phased out leaded gasoline since 2000. The underlying problem affecting the lead pollution-related health of children in China remains to be comprehensively investigated. It is found that although the significant decline of BLLs, as the Geometric Mean (GM), from 91.40 μg/LGM in 2001 to 37.52 μg/LGM in 2018 is observed, the average BLLs of children are still above 50 μg/L or more [average 59.70 (60.50-65.02, 95 % CI) μg/LGM] after phasing out leaded gasoline since 2000 in China. Lead exposure causes 29.67 MID per 1000 children with a loss of 98.23 (59.40-146.21, 95 % CI) DALYs per 1000 in China, which is greater than the levels reported from the Western Pacific Region and other low- and middle-income countries. A significant correlation is observed between the number of child crimes (NoCCs) and the outcomes of long-term lead exposure for children in China. Although the disparities in BLLs in China are strongly influenced by unequal distributions of potential multi-lead related sources (soil lead, PM2.5 lead, dust lead), unbalance development of local industrialization and economies, as well as incorrect health care for younger children, the notable emissions from coal combustion (CC) and non-ferrous metals (NMS) exploitation dominate the crucial sources of low-level lead exposure to children after phasing out leaded gasoline in China currently. Faced with the unequal and disparate distribution of BLLs in China, the big bottleneck is to decrease the BLLs exertions of 36-45 μg/L in the next few decades. The Chinese government needs to make more efforts on developing more strict guidelines, implementing more policy strategies on prevention and management of blood Pb poisoning, and monitoring the nationwide changes in children's BLLs continuously.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Dong
- Department of Environmental Science, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, PR China; International Joint Research Centre of Shaanxi Province for Pollutant Exposure and Eco-environmental Health, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, PR China
| | - Xiaoping Li
- Department of Environmental Science, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, PR China; International Joint Research Centre of Shaanxi Province for Pollutant Exposure and Eco-environmental Health, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, PR China; Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, 80 Wood Lane, London W12 0BZ, UK.
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23
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Sbarra AN, Rolfe S, Haeuser E, Nguyen JQ, Adamu A, Adeyinka D, Ajumobi O, Akunna C, Amusa G, Dahiru T, Ekholuenetale M, Esezobor C, Fowobaje K, Hay SI, Ibeneme C, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi O, Kayode G, Krohn K, Lim SS, Medeiros LE, Mohammed S, Nwatah V, Okoro A, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Osarenotor O, Owolabi M, Pickering B, Sufiyan MB, Uzochukwu B, Walker A, Mosser JF. Estimating vaccine coverage in conflict settings using geospatial methods: a case study in Borno state, Nigeria. Sci Rep 2023; 13:11085. [PMID: 37422502 PMCID: PMC10329660 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-37947-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Reliable estimates of subnational vaccination coverage are critical to track progress towards global immunisation targets and ensure equitable health outcomes for all children. However, conflict can limit the reliability of coverage estimates from traditional household-based surveys due to an inability to sample in unsafe and insecure areas and increased uncertainty in underlying population estimates. In these situations, model-based geostatistical (MBG) approaches offer alternative coverage estimates for administrative units affected by conflict. We estimated first- and third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine coverage in Borno state, Nigeria, using a spatiotemporal MBG modelling approach, then compared these to estimates from recent conflict-affected, household-based surveys. We compared sampling cluster locations from recent household-based surveys to geolocated data on conflict locations and modelled spatial coverage estimates, while also investigating the importance of reliable population estimates when assessing coverage in conflict settings. These results demonstrate that geospatially-modelled coverage estimates can be a valuable additional tool to understand coverage in locations where conflict prevents representative sampling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa N Sbarra
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA.
| | - Sam Rolfe
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Emily Haeuser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Jason Q Nguyen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Aishatu Adamu
- Community Medicine Department, Bayero University Kano, Kano, Nigeria
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Daniel Adeyinka
- Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
- Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Olufemi Ajumobi
- School of Public Health, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, USA
- National Malaria Elimination Program, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Chisom Akunna
- Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
- Department of Public Health, The Intercountry Centre for Oral Health (ICOH) for Africa, Jos, Nigeria
| | - Ganiyu Amusa
- Department of Medicine, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria
- Department of Internal Medicine, Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria
| | - Tukur Dahiru
- Department of Community Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Michael Ekholuenetale
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Christopher Esezobor
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
- Department of Paediatrics, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Kayode Fowobaje
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Child Survival Unit, Centre for African Newborn Health and Nutrition, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Charles Ibeneme
- Department of Public Health and Disease Control, Abia State Ministry of Health, Umuahia, Nigeria
- Nigerian Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, African Field Epidemiology Network, Abuja, Nigeria
| | | | - Olayinka Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Gbenga Kayode
- International Research Center of Excellence, Institute of Human Virology Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria
- Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Kris Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Lyla E Medeiros
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
- Department of Healthcare Management, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Vincent Nwatah
- Department of Pediatrics, National Hospital Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
- Department of International Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | | | - Osayomwanbo Osarenotor
- Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
| | - Mayowa Owolabi
- Department of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Brandon Pickering
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | | | - Benjamin Uzochukwu
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - Ally Walker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Jonathan F Mosser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA.
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
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24
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Hossain MS, Islam MF, Arka PB, Rohman M, Ahmed TS, Ahammed T, Chowdhury MAB, Uddin MJ. Antibiotic prescription from qualified sources for children with fever/cough: cross-sectional study from 59 low- and middle-income countries. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 61:102055. [PMID: 37434742 PMCID: PMC10331812 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Revised: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) receive a staggering number of antibiotic prescriptions, many of which are inappropriate. We aimed to explore the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions from qualified sources of children under five who had a fever/cough in the two weeks prior to the survey in LMICs. Methods We used data from cross-sectional studies of the latest Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets (n = 43,166) in 59 LMICs covering Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa-West Asia-Europe, Central Asia, South & Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Latin America & the Caribbean regions. The study was conducted from March 2, 2020 to October 15, 2022. We only included the latest available surveys by country, and children under five who had taken antibiotics for fever/cough were included in the study. Finally, the outcome variable was classified into two distinct categories: those who had taken antibiotics from qualified sources and those who did not. Findings About three in four children (74.0%) received antibiotics from qualified sources. Tanzania (22.4%) and Malawi (99.9%) had the lowest and highest percentages of antibiotic prescriptions by qualified sources, respectively. Oceania had the highest percentage of qualified antibiotic prescriptions with 88.9% and Central Asia had the lowest percentage with 56.3%. Interpretation As unqualified sources of antibiotics for fever/cough in children under five were alarmingly high in some of the LMICs, the study emphasises the importance of nationwide efforts to regulate antibiotics prescriptions. Funding None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Sabbir Hossain
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Fakrul Islam
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Prosenjit Basak Arka
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Mahfuzer Rohman
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Talha Sheikh Ahmed
- Department of Geography and Environment, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Tanvir Ahammed
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | | | - Md Jamal Uddin
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
- Department of General Educational and Development, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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25
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Tessema GA, Berheto TM, Pereira G, Misganaw A, Kinfu Y. National and subnational burden of under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality in Ethiopia, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0001471. [PMID: 37343009 PMCID: PMC10284418 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 05/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/23/2023]
Abstract
The under-5 mortality rate is a commonly used indicator of population health and socioeconomic status worldwide. However, as in most low- and middle-income countries settings, deaths among children under-5 and in any age group in Ethiopia remain underreported and fragmented. We aimed to systematically estimate neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality trends, identify underlying causes, and make subnational (regional and chartered cities) comparisons between 1990 and 2019. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate three key under-5 mortality indicators-the probability of death between the date of birth and 28 days (neonatal mortality rate, NMR), the date of birth and 1 year (infant mortality rate, IMR), and the date of birth and 5 years (under-5 mortality rate, U5MR). The causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm). Specifically, this involved a multi-stage process that includes a non-linear mixed-effects model, source bias correction, spatiotemporal smoothing, and a Gaussian process regression to synthesise mortality estimates by age, sex, location, and year. In 2019, an estimated 190,173 (95% uncertainty interval 149,789-242,575) under-5 deaths occurred in Ethiopia. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of under-5 deaths in 2019 were within the first year of life, and over half (52%) in the first 28 days. The overall U5MR, IMR, and NMR in the country were estimated to be 52.4 (44.7-62.4), 41.5 (35.2-50.0), and 26.6 (22.6-31.5) deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively, with substantial variations between administrative regions. Over three-quarters of under-5 deaths in 2019 were due to five leading causes, namely neonatal disorders (40.7%), diarrhoeal diseases (13.2%), lower respiratory infections (10.3%), congenital birth defects (7.0%), and malaria (6.0%). During the same period, neonatal disorders alone accounted for about 76.4% (70.2-79.6) of neonatal and 54.7% (51.9-57.2) of infant deaths in Ethiopia. While all regional states in Ethiopia have experienced a decline in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates in the past three decades, the rate of change was not large enough to meet the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Inter-regional disparities in under 5 mortality also remain significant, with the biggest differences being in the neonatal period. A concerted effort is required to improve neonatal survival and lessen regional disparity, which may require strengthening essential obstetric and neonatal care services, among others. Our study also highlights the urgent need for primary studies to improve the accuracy of regional estimates in Ethiopia, particularly in pastoralist regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gizachew A. Tessema
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Tezera Moshago Berheto
- HIV and TB Research Directorate, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Gavin Pereira
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Awoke Misganaw
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- National Data Management Center for Health, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territor, Australia
- International Institute of Global Health, United Nations University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Pullabhotla HK, Zahid M, Heft-Neal S, Rathi V, Burke M. Global biomass fires and infant mortality. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2218210120. [PMID: 37253010 PMCID: PMC10266003 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2218210120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2022] [Accepted: 05/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Global outdoor biomass burning is a major contributor to air pollution, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Recent years have witnessed substantial changes in the extent of biomass burning, including large declines in Africa. However, direct evidence of the contribution of biomass burning to global health outcomes remains limited. Here, we use georeferenced data on more than 2 million births matched to satellite-derived burned area exposure to estimate the burden of biomass fires on infant mortality. We find that each additional square kilometer of burning is associated with nearly 2% higher infant mortality in nearby downwind locations. The share of infant deaths attributable to biomass fires has increased over time due to the rapid decline in other important causes of infant death. Applying our model estimates across harmonized district-level data covering 98% of global infant deaths, we find that exposure to outdoor biomass burning was associated with nearly 130,000 additional infant deaths per year globally over our 2004 to 2018 study period. Despite the observed decline in biomass burning in Africa, nearly 75% of global infant deaths due to burning still occur in Africa. While fully eliminating biomass burning is unlikely, we estimate that even achievable reductions-equivalent to the lowest observed annual burning in each location during our study period-could have avoided more than 70,000 infant deaths per year globally since 2004.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hemant K. Pullabhotla
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Department of Economics, Deakin University, Burwood, VIC3125, Australia
| | - Mustafa Zahid
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Sam Heft-Neal
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Vaibhav Rathi
- Department of Economics, Stockholm University, Stockholm106 91, Sweden
| | - Marshall Burke
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA02138
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Hone T, Been JV, Saraceni V, Coeli CM, Trajman A, Rasella D, Durovni B, Millett C. Associations between primary healthcare and infant health outcomes: a cohort analysis of low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2023; 22:100519. [PMID: 37274550 PMCID: PMC10238835 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2022] [Revised: 04/19/2023] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Background Expanding primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low-and middle-income countries and is essential to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). Between 2008 and 2016 the city of Rio de Janeiro undertook an ambitious programme to rapidly expand primary care to low-income areas through the family health strategy (FHS). Infant health impacts of this roll out are unknown. This study examines associations between maternal FHS utilisation and birth outcomes, neonatal and infant mortality. Methods A cohort of 75,339 live births (January 2009-December 2014) to low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro was linked to primary care, birth, hospital and death records. The relationship between maternal FHS use and infant health outcomes was assessed through logistic regression with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment. Socioeconomic inequalities in the associations between FHS use and outcomes were explored through interactions. Primary outcomes were neonatal and infant death. Thirteen secondary outcomes were also examined to explore other important health outcomes and potential mechanisms. Results A total of 9002 (12.0%) infants were born to mothers in the cohort who used FHS services either before pregnancy or in the first two trimesters. There was a total of 527 neonatal and 893 infant deaths. Maternal FHS usage during the first two trimesters was associated with substantial reductions in neonatal [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.527, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.345; 0.806] and infant mortality (aOR: 0.672, 95% CI: 0.48; 0.924). Infants born to lower-income mothers and those without formal employment had larger reductions in neonatal and infant mortality associated with FHS use. Maternal FHS in the first two trimesters use was also associated with more antenatal care consultations and a lower risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. Interpretation Expanding primary care to low-income populations in Rio de Janeiro was associated with improved infant health and health equity benefits. Funding DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Hone
- Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jasper V. Been
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Neonatal and Paediatric Intensive Care, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, and Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC Sophia Children’s Hospital, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Valeria Saraceni
- Health Surveillance Branch, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Anete Trajman
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Davide Rasella
- Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic— Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Betina Durovni
- Health Surveillance Branch, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Christopher Millett
- Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- NOVA National School of Public Health, Public Health Research Centre, Comprehensive Health Research Center, CHRC, NOVA University Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
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Carrol ED, Ranjit S, Menon K, Bennett TD, Sanchez-Pinto LN, Zimmerman JJ, Souza DC, Sorce LR, Randolph AG, Ishimine P, Flauzino de Oliveira C, Lodha R, Harmon L, Watson RS, Schlapbach LJ, Kissoon N, Argent AC. Operationalizing Appropriate Sepsis Definitions in Children Worldwide: Considerations for the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce. Pediatr Crit Care Med 2023; 24:e263-e271. [PMID: 37097029 PMCID: PMC10226471 DOI: 10.1097/pcc.0000000000003263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/26/2023]
Abstract
Sepsis is a leading cause of global mortality in children, yet definitions for pediatric sepsis are outdated and lack global applicability and validity. In adults, the Sepsis-3 Definition Taskforce queried databases from high-income countries to develop and validate the criteria. The merit of this definition has been widely acknowledged; however, important considerations about less-resourced and more diverse settings pose challenges to its use globally. To improve applicability and relevance globally, the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce sought to develop a conceptual framework and rationale of the critical aspects and context-specific factors that must be considered for the optimal operationalization of future pediatric sepsis definitions. It is important to address challenges in developing a set of pediatric sepsis criteria which capture manifestations of illnesses with vastly different etiologies and underlying mechanisms. Ideal criteria need to be unambiguous, and capable of adapting to the different contexts in which children with suspected infections are present around the globe. Additionally, criteria need to facilitate early recognition and timely escalation of treatment to prevent progression and limit life-threatening organ dysfunction. To address these challenges, locally adaptable solutions are required, which permit individualized care based on available resources and the pretest probability of sepsis. This should facilitate affordable diagnostics which support risk stratification and prediction of likely treatment responses, and solutions for locally relevant outcome measures. For this purpose, global collaborative databases need to be established, using minimum variable datasets from routinely collected data. In summary, a "Think globally, act locally" approach is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enitan D Carrol
- Department of Clinical Infection, Microbiology and Immunology, University of Liverpool Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | | | - Kusum Menon
- Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Tellen D Bennett
- Departments of Biomedical Informatics and Pediatrics (Critical Care Medicine), University of Colorado School of Medicine, and Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO
| | - L Nelson Sanchez-Pinto
- Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, IL
- Department of Pediatrics, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Jerry J Zimmerman
- Seattle Children's Hospital, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA
| | - Daniela C Souza
- Hospital Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo and Hospital Sírio Libanês, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Lauren R Sorce
- Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, IL
- Department of Pediatrics, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Adrienne G Randolph
- Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care Medicine and Pain Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA
- Department of Anesthesia and Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Paul Ishimine
- Departments of Emergency Medicine and Pediatrics, University of California, San Diego School of Medicine, La Jolla, CA
| | | | - Rakesh Lodha
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Lori Harmon
- Society of Critical Care Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - R Scott Watson
- Seattle Children's Hospital, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA
| | - Luregn J Schlapbach
- Department of Intensive Care and Neonatology, and Children's Research Center, University Children's Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Niranjan Kissoon
- Department of Pediatrics and Emergency Medicine, British Columbia Women and Children's Hospital, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Andrew C Argent
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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Melo MS, Cabrera LAA, Lima SVMA, Dos Santos AD, Oliveira LMGB, de Oliveira RC, de Sousa Menezes J, de Figueiredo JA, de Moura Lane VF, de Lima Júnior FEF, da Rocha Moreira RV. Temporal trend, spatial analysis and spatiotemporal clusters of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil: Time series from 2000 to 2020. Trop Med Int Health 2023. [PMID: 37060253 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To analyse the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between the years 2000 and 2020. METHODS Ecological study of time series, with spatial analysis and spatiotemporal scan of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis from the records of deaths of the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian model. The Global Moran Index, Global Geary's Contiguity and Getis-Ord General statistics were calculated for spatial autocorrelation assessment. The trends were evaluated by the Joinpoint method. RESULTS We identified 1183 infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between 2000 and 2020. The predominant characteristics were male sex (52.1%), post-neonatal age group (51.9%), white race/colour (45.7%), and Southeast region of residence (40.0%). The infant mortality rate associated with congenital toxoplasmosis showed an increasing trend in the country in the years analysed. The spatial analysis showed heterogeneous distribution of mortality in the Brazilian territory and found no evidence of spatial autocorrelation; but spatial-temporal analysis identified three risk clusters involving 703 municipalities. CONCLUSION Infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. The risk factors male sex, indigenous race/colour, early neonatal age, North and Northeast regions and risk clusters mapped in this study should be observed for future analysis and planning of health care policies in the control of infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis. Health surveillance strategies and public health policies need to be strengthened.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matheus Santos Melo
- Field Epidemiology Training Program, Department of Public Health Emergencies, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Renata Carla de Oliveira
- General Coordination of Zoonoses and Vector-Transmitted Diseases Surveillance, Department of Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Janaína de Sousa Menezes
- General Coordination of Zoonoses and Vector-Transmitted Diseases Surveillance, Department of Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Josivânia Arrais de Figueiredo
- General Coordination of Zoonoses and Vector-Transmitted Diseases Surveillance, Department of Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Viviane Fragoso de Moura Lane
- General Coordination of Zoonoses and Vector-Transmitted Diseases Surveillance, Department of Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Rosalynd Vinicios da Rocha Moreira
- General Coordination of Zoonoses and Vector-Transmitted Diseases Surveillance, Department of Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
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Haeuser E, Nguyen JQ, Rolfe S, Nesbit O, Fullman N, Mosser JF. Assessing Geographic Overlap between Zero-Dose Diphtheria–Tetanus–Pertussis Vaccination Prevalence and Other Health Indicators. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:vaccines11040802. [PMID: 37112714 PMCID: PMC10144604 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11040802] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/29/2023] [Indexed: 04/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The integration of immunization with other essential health services is among the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and has the potential to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of health service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the degree of spatial overlap between the prevalence of children who have never received a dose of the diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis-containing vaccine (no-DTP) and other health-related indicators, to provide insight into the potential for joint geographic targeting of integrated service delivery efforts. Using geospatially modeled estimates of vaccine coverage and comparator indicators, we develop a framework to delineate and compare areas of high overlap across indicators, both within and between countries, and based upon both counts and prevalence. We derive summary metrics of spatial overlap to facilitate comparison between countries and indicators and over time. As an example, we apply this suite of analyses to five countries—Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Angola—and five comparator indicators—children with stunting, under-5 mortality, children missing doses of oral rehydration therapy, prevalence of lymphatic filariasis, and insecticide-treated bed net coverage. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the geographic overlap both within and between countries. These results provide a framework to assess the potential for joint geographic targeting of interventions, supporting efforts to ensure that all people, regardless of location, can benefit from vaccines and other essential health services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Haeuser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Jason Q. Nguyen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Sam Rolfe
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Olivia Nesbit
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Department of Global Health, School of Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Jonathan F. Mosser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Suárez-Idueta L, Pita R, Blencowe H, Barranco A, Gonzalez JF, Paixao ES, Barreto ML, Lawn JE, Ohuma EO. National data linkage assessment of live births and deaths in Mexico: Estimating under-five mortality rate ratios for vulnerable newborns and trends from 2008 to 2019. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 2023; 37:266-275. [PMID: 36938831 DOI: 10.1111/ppe.12968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2022] [Revised: 02/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/24/2023] [Indexed: 03/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Linked datasets that enable longitudinal assessments are scarce in low and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES We aimed to assess the linkage of administrative databases of live births and under-five child deaths to explore mortality and trends for preterm, small (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA) in Mexico. METHODS We linked individual-level datasets collected by National statistics from 2008 to 2019. Linkage was performed based on agreement on birthday, sex, residential address. We used the Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health software to identify the best candidate pairs based on similarity. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We evaluated completeness by comparing the number of linked records with reported deaths. We described the percentage of linked records by baseline characteristics to identify potential bias. Using the linked dataset, we calculated mortality rate ratios (RR) in neonatal, infants, and children under-five according to gestational age, birthweight, and size. RESULTS For the period 2008-2019, a total of 24,955,172 live births and 321,165 under-five deaths were available for linkage. We excluded 1,539,046 records (6.2%) with missing or implausible values. We succesfully linked 231,765 deaths (72.2%: range 57.1% in 2009 and 84.3% in 2011). The rate of neonatal mortality was higher for preterm compared with term (RR 3.83, 95% confidence interval, CI 3.78, 3.88) and for SGA compared with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) (RR 1.22 95% CI, 1.19, 1.24). Births at <28 weeks had the highest mortality (RR 35.92, 95%CI, 34.97, 36.88). LGA had no additional risk vs AGA among children under five (RR 0.92, 95%CI, 0.90, 0.93). CONCLUSIONS We demonstrated the utility of linked data to understand neonatal vulnerability and child mortality. We created a linked dataset that would be a valuable resource for future population-based research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Robespierre Pita
- Centre of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Salvador, Brazil.,Computing Institute, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Hannah Blencowe
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Arturo Barranco
- Ministry of Health, Population and Health Information, Ministry of Health, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | - Enny S Paixao
- Centre of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Salvador, Brazil.,Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Centre of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Joy E Lawn
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Eric O Ohuma
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Sun J, Liu X, Zhao M, Magnussen CG, Xi B. Dose-response association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and the risk of infant death: a nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 57:101858. [PMID: 36879656 PMCID: PMC9984774 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/21/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 02/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Association of timing and intensity of maternal smoking during pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death remains inconclusive. We aimed to examine the dose-response association of maternal smoking during each of the three trimesters of pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death. METHODS In this nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study, data were extracted from the U.S. National Vital Statistics System, 2015-2019. We included mother-infant pairs after excluding twin or multiple births, newborns with gestation age <37 weeks and those with low birthweight, mothers aged <18 years or ≥50 years, mothers with pre-existing hypertension or diabetes, and those with missing values for variables of interest. Poisson regression models were used to examine the association of different intensities and doses of maternal smoking during each of the three trimesters of pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death attributed to congenital anomalies, preterm birth, other perinatal conditions, sudden unexpected infant death, and infection. FINDINGS A total of 13,524,204 mother-infant pairs were included in our analyses. Maternal smoking during the entire pregnancy was associated with infant all-cause death (relative risk [RR] 1.88, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.79-1.97), cause-specific death due to preterm birth (1.57, 1.25-1.98), perinatal conditions excluding preterm birth (1.35, 1.10-1.65), sudden unexpected infant death (2.56, 2.40-2.73), and infection (1.51, 1.20-1.88). The risk of infant all-cause death (RR values from 1.80 to 2.15) and cause-specific infant death by preterm birth (RR values from 1.42 to 1.74), perinatal conditions excluding preterm birth (RR values from 1.46 to 1.53), sudden unexpected infant death (RR values from 2.37 to 3.04), and infection (RR values from 1.48 to 2.69) increased with the intensity of maternal cigarette use during the entire pregnancy from 1-5 to ≥11 cigarettes. Compared with mothers who smoked during their entire pregnancy, those who smoked in the first trimester and then quit smoking in the second or third trimesters of pregnancy had a reduced risk of infant all-cause death (0.71, 0.65-0.78) and sudden unexpected infant death (0.64, 0.57-0.72). INTERPRETATION There was a dose-response association of maternal cigarette use during each of the three trimesters of pregnancy with all-cause and cause-specific infant death. In addition, mothers who are smokers in the first trimester and then quit smoking in the subsequent two trimesters are at decreased risk of infant all-cause mortality and sudden unexpected infant death compared with those who smoked during the entire pregnancy. These findings suggest that there is no safe level of maternal smoking in any trimester of pregnancy and maternal smokers should stop smoking during pregnancy to improve the survival of infants. FUNDING Youth Team of Humanistic and Social Science and the Innovation Team of the "Climbing" Program of Shandong University (20820IFYT1902).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiahong Sun
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Xue Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Min Zhao
- Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Costan G. Magnussen
- Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Research Centre of Applied and Preventive Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
- Centre for Population Health Research, University of Turku and Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland
| | - Bo Xi
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
- Corresponding author. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, 44 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China.
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Atalell KA, Alene KA. Spatiotemporal distributions of under-five mortality in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0001504. [PMID: 36972238 PMCID: PMC10042344 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023]
Abstract
Under-five mortality declined in the last two decades in Ethiopia, but sub-national and local progress remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distributions and ecological level factors of under-five mortality in Ethiopia. Data on under-five mortality were obtained from five different Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS), conducted in 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Environmental and healthcare access data were obtained from different publicly available sources. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict and visualize spatial risks for under-five mortality. The national under-five mortality rate in Ethiopia declined from 121 per 1000 live births in 2000 to 59 per 1000 live births in 2019. Spatial variation in under-five mortality was observed at regional and local levels with the highest rates reported in the Western, Eastern, and Central parts of Ethiopia. Spatial clustering of under-five mortality was significantly associated with population density, access to a water body, and climatic factors such as temperature. Under-five mortality rate declined over the past two decades and varied substantially at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia. Increasing access to water and health care may help to reduce under-five mortality in high-risk areas. Therefore, interventions targeted to reduce under-five mortality should be strengthened in the areas that had a clustering of under-five mortality in Ethiopia by increasing access to quality health care access.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kendalem Asmare Atalell
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health Nursing, School of Nursing, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Kefyalew Addis Alene
- Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
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Román Gálvez MR, Riquelme-Gallego B, del Carmen Segovia-García M, Gavilán-Cabello D, Khan KS, Bueno-Cavanillas A. Variations in Author Gender in Obstetrics Disease Prevalence Literature: A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 20:727. [PMID: 36613057 PMCID: PMC9819007 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20010727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Revised: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This systematic review aims to evaluate gender differences in authorship of prevalence literature concerning intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). GDM studies were matched for publication year and study country as a gender-neutral obstetric disease with similar morbidity to IPV. Relevant studies were captured without language restrictions via online searches of PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science from database inception to January 2022. Proportion of female authors and gender of the first and corresponding author were outcome measures. Multivariable regression models were built to examine if female authors featured more or less often in IPV during pregnancy and GDM literature adjusting by the influence of type of study, country's human development index (HDI), year of publication and journal's impact factor. 137 IPV-GDM studies pairs were included. Female authors in IPV studies were slightly lower than in GDM [59.7%, 95% CI 54.7-64.7, vs. 54.9%, 95% CI 50.7-59.1, p = 0.204]. Studies published in high-income countries were more likely to be signed by a woman as first and corresponding author (Odds Ratio 2.22, 95% CI 1.20; 4.11, p = 0.011 and Odds Ratio 2.24, CI 1.22; 4.10, p = 0.009 respectively) and proportion of women as corresponding authors decreased as the journal impact factor increased (β = 0.62, 95% CI 0.37, 1.05, p = 0.075). There is a gender gap in the field of prevalence research in IPV during pregnancy with variations according to the level of development. International programs aimed at eradicating these inequalities are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- María Rosario Román Gálvez
- Departamento de Enfermería, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
- Unidad Asistencial Churriana de la Vega, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Churriana de la Vega, 18194 Granada, Spain
| | - Blanca Riquelme-Gallego
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria de Granada ibs, 18014 Granada, Spain
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
| | | | - Daniel Gavilán-Cabello
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
| | - Khalid Saeed Khan
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
- Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Aurora Bueno-Cavanillas
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria de Granada ibs, 18014 Granada, Spain
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
- Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Aheto JMK. Mapping under-five child malaria risk that accounts for environmental and climatic factors to aid malaria preventive and control efforts in Ghana: Bayesian geospatial and interactive web-based mapping methods. Malar J 2022; 21:384. [PMID: 36522667 PMCID: PMC9756577 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-022-04409-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Under-five child malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, especially among sub-Saharan African countries like Ghana. In Ghana, malaria is responsible for about 20,000 deaths in children annually of which 25% are those aged < 5 years. To provide opportunities for efficient malaria surveillance and targeted control efforts amidst limited public health resources, the study produced high resolution interactive web-based spatial maps that characterized geographical differences in malaria risk and identified high burden communities. METHODS This modelling and web-based mapping study utilized data from the 2019 Malaria Indicators Survey (MIS) of the Demographic and Health Survey Program. A novel and advanced Bayesian geospatial modelling and mapping approaches were utilized to examine predictors and geographical differences in under-five malaria. The model was validated via a cross-validation approach. The study produced an interactive web-based visualization map of the malaria risk by mapping the predicted malaria prevalence at both sampled and unsampled locations. RESULTS In 2019, 718 (25%) of 2867 under-five children surveyed had malaria. Substantial geographical differences in under-five malaria risk were observed. ITN coverage (log-odds 4.5643, 95% credible interval = 2.4086-6.8874), travel time (log-odds 0.0057, 95% credible interval = 0.0017-0.0099) and aridity (log-odds = 0.0600, credible interval = 0.0079-0.1167) were predictive of under-five malaria in the spatial model. The overall predicted national malaria prevalence was 16.3% (standard error (SE) 8.9%) with a range of 0.7% to 51.4% in the spatial model with covariates and prevalence of 28.0% (SE 13.9%) with a range of 2.4 to 67.2% in the spatial model without covariates. Residing in parts of Central and Bono East regions was associated with the highest risk of under-five malaria after adjusting for the selected covariates. CONCLUSION The high-resolution interactive web-based predictive maps can be used as an effective tool in the identification of communities that require urgent and targeted interventions by programme managers and implementers. This is key as part of an overall strategy in reducing the under-five malaria burden and its associated morbidity and mortality in a country with limited public health resources where universal intervention is practically impossible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justice Moses K. Aheto
- grid.8652.90000 0004 1937 1485Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana ,grid.5491.90000 0004 1936 9297WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK ,grid.170693.a0000 0001 2353 285XCollege of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL USA
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O'Brien KS, Arzika AM, Maliki R, Amza A, Manzo F, Mankara AK, Lebas E, Cook C, Oldenburg CE, Porco TC, Arnold BF, Bertozzi S, Keenan JD, Lietman TM. Azithromycin distribution and childhood mortality in compliance-related subgroups in Niger: complier average causal effect and spillovers in a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Int J Epidemiol 2022; 51:1775-1784. [PMID: 34508582 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Biannual azithromycin distribution to children 1-59 months old reduced all-cause mortality by 18% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.90] in an intention-to-treat analysis of a randomized controlled trial in Niger. Estimation of the effect in compliance-related subgroups can support decision making around implementation of this intervention in programmatic settings. METHODS The cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled design of the original trial enabled unbiased estimation of the effect of azithromycin on mortality rates in two subgroups: (i) treated children (complier average causal effect analysis); and (ii) untreated children (spillover effect analysis), using negative binomial regression. RESULTS In Niger, 594 eligible communities were randomized to biannual azithromycin or placebo distribution and were followed from December 2014 to August 2017, with a mean treatment coverage of 90% [standard deviation (SD) 10%] in both arms. Subgroup analyses included 2581 deaths among treated children and 245 deaths among untreated children. Among treated children, the incidence rate ratio comparing mortality in azithromycin communities to placebo communities was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.88), with mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person-years at risk) of 16.6 in azithromycin communities and 20.9 in placebo communities. Among untreated children, the incidence rate ratio was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.69, 1.21), with rates of 33.6 in azithromycin communities and 34.4 in placebo communities. CONCLUSIONS As expected, this analysis suggested similar efficacy among treated children compared with the intention-to-treat analysis. Though the results were consistent with a small spillover benefit to untreated children, this trial was underpowered to detect spillovers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kieran S O'Brien
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Abdou Amza
- Programme National de Santé Oculaire, Niamey, Niger
| | | | | | - Elodie Lebas
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Catherine Cook
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Catherine E Oldenburg
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Benjamin F Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Stefano Bertozzi
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.,Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, MOR, México
| | - Jeremy D Keenan
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Reiner RC, Hay SI. The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7457. [PMID: 36473841 PMCID: PMC9726883 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34240-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Haakenstad A, Yearwood JA, Fullman N, Bintz C, Bienhoff K, Weaver MR, Nandakumar V, LeGrand KE, Knight M, Abbafati C, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed A, Ahmed Rashid T, Aji B, Akande-Sholabi W, Alam K, Al Hamad H, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Andrade PP, Anjum A, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariffin H, Arulappan J, Aryan Z, Ashraf T, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Bairwa M, Bakkannavar SM, Baliga S, Banik PC, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bayati M, Belete R, Bell AW, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj N, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhurtyal A, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Bolarinwa OA, Bonny A, Brenner H, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Busse R, Butt ZA, Butt NS, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carneiro VLA, Catalá-López F, Chandan JS, Charan J, Chavan PP, Chen S, Chen S, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chowdhury MAK, Cirillo M, Corso B, Dadras O, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dangel WJ, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, Deuba K, Dhimal M, Dhimal ML, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doshmangir L, Duncan BB, Effiong A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Erku DA, Eskandarieh S, Fares J, Farzadfar F, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gaihre S, Gardner WM, Garg T, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Guadamuz JS, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Hamiduzzaman M, Hanif A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasan MT, Hashi A, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari G, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Holla R, Hossain S, Hossain SJ, Hossain MBH, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Huang J, Huda MM, Ifeagwu SC, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jakovljevic M, Janodia MD, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath AM, Kamenov K, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karanikolos M, Katikireddi SV, Kavetskyy T, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khan M, Khezeli M, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa S, Kisa A, Klymchuk V, Koly KN, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koul PA, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lee CB, Li S, Lucchetti G, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Makki A, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malta DC, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martinez-Valle A, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Maude RJ, Maulik PK, McKee M, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Misra S, Moazen B, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi G, Moreira RS, Mosser JF, Mostafavi E, Mouodi S, Nagarajan AJ, Nagata C, Naghavi M, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nascimento BR, Nassereldine H, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Negoi I, Nepal S, Neupane Kandel S, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen CT, Ningrum DNA, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Oghenetega OB, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Onwujekwe OE, Otoiu A, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pardhan S, Pasupula DK, Pathak PK, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pereira J, Pilania M, Piroozi B, Podder V, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Prada SI, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ranabhat CL, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Renzaho AM, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ripon RK, Sacco S, Sadeghi M, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo H, Sahu M, Salama JS, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Seidu AA, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sheikh A, Shetty A, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shivakumar KM, Shokri A, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sofi-Mahmudi A, Sousa RARC, Stephens JH, Sun J, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadbiri H, Tamiru AT, Thankappan KR, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran MTN, Tran BX, Tripathi N, Tripathy JP, Troeger CE, Uezono DR, Ullah S, Ullah A, Unnikrishnan B, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vasic M, Veroux M, Vervoort D, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang YP, Wang Y, Ward P, Wiangkham T, Yadav L, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zaman SB, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zuniga YMH, Lim SS, Murray CJL, Lozano R. Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e1715-e1743. [PMID: 36209761 PMCID: PMC9666426 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00429-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. METHODS We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. INTERPRETATION Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sepanlou SG, Rezaei Aliabadi H, Malekzadeh R, Naghavi M. Neonate, Infant, and Child Mortality in North Africa and Middle East by Cause: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. ARCHIVES OF IRANIAN MEDICINE 2022; 25:767-778. [PMID: 37543904 PMCID: PMC10685846 DOI: 10.34172/aim.2022.122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the past three decades, neonate, infant, and child mortality declined in North Africa and Middle East. However, there is substantial heterogeneity in mortality rates across countries. METHODS This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) 2019. We report the number as well as mortality rates for neonates, infants, and children by cause across 21 countries in the region since 1990. RESULTS Between 1990 and 2019, the neonate mortality rate in the region declined from 31.9 (29.8, 34.0) to 12.2 (11.1, 13.3) per 1000 live births. Respective figures for under 5 mortality rates (U5MRs) were 79.1 (75.7, 82.7) in 1990 and 24.4 (22.3, 26.7) per 1000 live births in 2019. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years were due to under 1 year deaths: 75.9% in 1990 and 81.8% in 2019. Mortality rates in males were higher than females. The mortality rate among neonates ranged from 2.4 (2.1, 2.6) per 1000 live births in Bahrain to 25.0 (21.6, 28.4) in Afghanistan in 2019. Similarly, in 2019, the U5MR ranged from 5.0 (4.2-6.0) per 1000 live births in United Arab Emirates to 55.3 (47.9-63.5) in Afghanistan. Neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and lower respiratory infections were the three main causes of neonate, infant, and child mortality in almost all countries in the region. CONCLUSION In 2019, most countries in this region have achieved the SDG targets for neonate and child mortality. However, there is still substantial heterogeneity across countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadaf G. Sepanlou
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
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Susmann H, Alexander M, Alkema L. Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Comparison. Int Stat Rev 2022; 90:437-467. [PMID: 36590075 PMCID: PMC9790657 DOI: 10.1111/insr.12491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2021] [Revised: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
There is growing interest in producing estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Statistical models are needed to combine data from multiple data sources into estimates and projections with uncertainty. Diverse modelling approaches have been applied to this problem, making comparisons between models difficult. We propose a model class, Temporal Models for Multiple Populations (TMMPs), to facilitate both documentation of model assumptions in a standardised way and comparison across models. The class makes a distinction between the process model, which describes latent trends in the indicator interest, and the data model, which describes the data generating process of the observed data. We provide a general notation for the process model that encompasses many popular temporal modelling techniques, and we show how existing models for a variety of indicators can be written using this notation. We end with a discussion of outstanding questions and future directions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Herbert Susmann
- Department of Biostatistics and EpidemiologyUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst715 North Pleasant StreetAmherstMA01003USA
| | - Monica Alexander
- Departments of Statistical Sciences and SociologyUniversity of Toronto700 University AvenueTorontoON M5G 1Z5Canada
| | - Leontine Alkema
- Department of Biostatistics and EpidemiologyUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst715 North Pleasant StreetAmherstMA01003USA
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Ferreira LZ, Utazi CE, Huicho L, Nilsen K, Hartwig FP, Tatem AJ, Barros AJD. Geographic inequalities in health intervention coverage – mapping the composite coverage index in Peru using geospatial modelling. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:2104. [PMID: 36397019 PMCID: PMC9670533 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14371-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The composite coverage index (CCI) provides an integrated perspective towards universal health coverage in the context of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health. Given the sample design of most household surveys does not provide coverage estimates below the first administrative level, approaches for achieving more granular estimates are needed. We used a model-based geostatistical approach to estimate the CCI at multiple resolutions in Peru. Methods We generated estimates for the eight indicators on which the CCI is based for the departments, provinces, and areas of 5 × 5 km of Peru using data from two national household surveys carried out in 2018 and 2019 plus geospatial covariates. Bayesian geostatistical models were fit using the INLA-SPDE approach. We assessed model fit using cross-validation at the survey cluster level and by comparing modelled and direct survey estimates at the department-level. Results CCI coverage in the provinces along the coast was consistently higher than in the remainder of the country. Jungle areas in the north and east presented the lowest coverage levels and the largest gaps between and within provinces. The greatest inequalities were found, unsurprisingly, in the largest provinces where populations are scattered in jungle territory and are difficult to reach. Conclusions Our study highlighted provinces with high levels of inequality in CCI coverage indicating areas, mostly low-populated jungle areas, where more attention is needed. We also uncovered other areas, such as the border with Bolivia, where coverage is lower than the coastal provinces and should receive increased efforts. More generally, our results make the case for high-resolution estimates to unveil geographic inequities otherwise hidden by the usual levels of survey representativeness. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14371-7.
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Sergentanis TN, Vlachadis N, Spyridopoulou E, Vassilakou T, Kornarou E. Determinants of Mortality in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit in Athens, Greece: A Case-Control Study. Cureus 2022; 14:e31438. [DOI: 10.7759/cureus.31438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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Vulnerability in maternal, new-born, and child health in low- and middle-income countries: Findings from a scoping review. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0276747. [DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives
To identify and synthesise prevailing definitions and indices of vulnerability in maternal, new-born and child health (MNCH) research and health programs in low- and middle-income countries.
Design and setting
Scoping review using Arksey and O’Malley’s framework and a Delphi survey for consensus building.
Participants
Mothers, new-borns, and children living in low- and middle-income countries were selected as participants.
Outcomes
Vulnerability as defined by the authors was deduced from the studies.
Results
A total of 61 studies were included in this scoping review. Of this, 22 were publications on vulnerability in the context of maternal health and 40 were on new-born and child health. Definitions used in included studies can be broadly categorised into three domains: biological, socioeconomic, and environmental. Eleven studies defined vulnerability in the context of maternal health, five reported on the scales used to measure vulnerability in maternal health and only one study used a validated scale. Of the 40 included studies on vulnerability in child health, 19 defined vulnerability in the context of new-born and/or child health, 15 reported on the scales used to measure vulnerability in child health and nine reported on childhood vulnerability indices. As it was difficult to synthesise the definitions, their keywords were extracted to generate new candidate definitions for vulnerability in MNCH.
Conclusion
Included studies paid greater attention to new-born/ child vulnerability than maternal vulnerability, with authors defining the terms differently. A definition which helps in improving the description of vulnerability in MNCH across various programs and researchers was arrived at. This will further help in streamlining research and interventions which can influence the design of high impact MNCH programs.
Scoping review registration
The protocol for this review was registered in the open science framework at the registered address (https://osf.io/jt6nr).
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Macharia PM, Beňová L. Double burden of under-5 mortality in LMICs. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e1535-e1536. [PMID: 36240809 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00357-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Peter M Macharia
- Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, 43640-00100, Nairobi, Kenya; Center for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
| | - Lenka Beňová
- Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
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Shukla VV, Carlo WA, Niermeyer S, Guinsburg R. Neonatal resuscitation from a global perspective. Semin Perinatol 2022; 46:151630. [PMID: 35725655 DOI: 10.1016/j.semperi.2022.151630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
The majority of perinatal and neonatal mortality occurs in low-resource settings in low- and middle-income countries. Access and quality of care at delivery are major determinants of the health and survival of newborn infants. Availability of basic neonatal resuscitation care at birth has improved, but basic neonatal resuscitation at birth or high-quality care continues to be inaccessible in some settings, leading to persistently high perinatal and neonatal mortality. Low-resource settings of high-income countries and socially disadvantaged communities also suffer from inadequate access to quality perinatal healthcare. Quality improvement, implementation research, and innovation should focus on improving the quality of perinatal healthcare and perinatal and neonatal outcomes in low-resource settings. The current review presents an update on issues confronting universal availability of optimal resuscitation care at birth and provides an update on ongoing efforts to address them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vivek V Shukla
- University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Waldemar A Carlo
- University of Colorado School of Medicine and Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Susan Niermeyer
- University of Colorado School of Medicine and Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Ruth Guinsburg
- Universidade Federal de São Paulo/Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
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Schmidt CA, Cromwell EA, Hill E, Donkers KM, Schipp MF, Johnson KB, Pigott DM, Hay SI. The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000-2018: a geospatial analysis. BMC Med 2022; 20:293. [PMID: 36068517 PMCID: PMC9449300 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02486-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/14/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. METHODS A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000-2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000-2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. RESULTS As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0-22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Schmidt
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA.
| | - Elizabeth A Cromwell
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Elex Hill
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Katie M Donkers
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Megan F Schipp
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Kimberly B Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | | | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
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Kitt E, Hayes M, Congdon M, Ballester L, Sewawa KB, Mulale U, Mazhani L, Arscott-Mills T, Steenhoff A, Coffin S. Risk factors for mortality in a hospitalised neonatal cohort in Botswana. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e062776. [PMID: 36691117 PMCID: PMC9454043 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 07/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES A disproportionate number of neonatal deaths occur in low/middle-income countries, with sepsis a leading contributor of mortality. In this study, we investigate risk factors for mortality in a cohort of high-risk hospitalised neonates in Botswana. Independent predictors for mortality for infants experiencing either a sepsis or a non-sepsis-related death are described. METHODS This is a prospective observational cohort study with infants enrolled from July to October 2018 at the neonatal unit (NNU) of Princess Marina Hospital (PMH) in Gaborone, Botswana. Data on demographic, clinical and unit-specific variables were obtained. Neonates were followed to death or discharge, including transfer to another hospital. Death was determined to be infectious versus non-infectious based on primary diagnosis listed on day of death by lead clinician on duty. RESULTS Our full cohort consisted of 229 patients. The overall death rate was 227 per 1000 live births, with cumulative proportion of deaths of 22.7% (n=47). Univariate analysis revealed that sepsis, extremely low birth weight (ELBW) status, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy, critical illness and infants born at home were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Our multivariate model revealed that critical illness (HR 3.07, 95% CI 1.56 to 6.03) and being born at home (HR 4.82, 95% CI 1.76 to 13.19) were independently associated with all-cause mortality. Low birth weight status was independently associated with a decreased risk of mortality (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.53). There was a high burden of infection in the cohort with more than half of infants (140, 61.14%) diagnosed with sepsis at least once during their NNU admission. Approximately 20% (n=25) of infants with sepsis died before discharge. Our univariate subanalysis of the sepsis cohort revealed that ELBW and critical illness were associated with an increased risk of death. These findings persisted in the multivariate model with HR 3.60 (95% CI 1.11 to 11.71) and HR 2.39 (95% CI 1 to 5.77), respectively. CONCLUSIONS High rates of neonatal mortality were noted. Urgent interventions are needed to improve survival rates at PMH NNU and to prioritise care for critically ill infants at time of NNU admission, particularly those born at home and/or of ELBW.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eimear Kitt
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Global Health Center, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Molly Hayes
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Morgan Congdon
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Global Health Center, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Section of Hospital Medicine, CHOP, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Lance Ballester
- Biostatistics and Data Management Core, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Kgotlaetsile B Sewawa
- Department of Paediatric & Adolescent Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Botswana, Gaborone, South-East District, Botswana
| | - Unami Mulale
- Department of Paediatric & Adolescent Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Botswana, Gaborone, South-East District, Botswana
| | - Loeto Mazhani
- Department of Paediatric & Adolescent Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Botswana, Gaborone, South-East District, Botswana
| | - Tonya Arscott-Mills
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- General Pediatrics, The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Andrew Steenhoff
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Global Health Center, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Susan Coffin
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Global Health Center, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
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Zhao H, Feng Q, Feng Z, Zhu Y, Ai J, Xu B, Deng L, Sun Y, Li C, Jin R, Shang Y, Chen X, Xu L, Xie Z. Clinical characteristics and molecular epidemiology of human metapneumovirus in children with acute lower respiratory tract infections in China, 2017 to 2019: A multicentre prospective observational study. Virol Sin 2022; 37:874-882. [PMID: 36007839 PMCID: PMC9797368 DOI: 10.1016/j.virs.2022.08.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) infection is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in young children with acute respiratory illness. In this study, we prospectively collected respiratory tract samples from children who were hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infection in six hospitals in China from 2017 to 2019. HMPV was detected in 145 out of 2733 samples (5.3%) from the hospitalized children. The majority of HMPV-positive children were under the age of two (67.6%), with a median age of one year. HMPV can independently cause acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children, while all patients showed mild clinical symptoms. Of all the co-infected patients, HMPV was most commonly detected with enterovirus (EV) or rhinovirus (RhV) (38.0%, followed by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (32.0%). The highest detection rate occurred from March to May in both northern and southern China. Out of 145 HMPV positive samples, 48 were successfully typed, of which 36 strains were subgrouped into subtypes A2c (75%), eight strains were included in subtype B1 (16.7%), and four strains were included in subtype B2 (8.3%). Moreover, 16 A2c strains contained 111-nucleotide duplications in the G gene. Twenty-seven complete HMPV genomes were successfully obtained, and 25 (92.6%) strains belonged to subtype A2c, whereas one strain was included in subgroup B1 and another was included in subgroup B2. A total of 277 mutations were observed in the complete genomes of 25 A2c strains. All results presented here improve our understanding of clinical characteristics and molecular epidemiology of HMPV infection in children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongwei Zhao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
| | - Qianyu Feng
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
| | - Ziheng Feng
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
| | - Yun Zhu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
| | - Junhong Ai
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
| | - Baoping Xu
- Department of Respiratory Diseases I, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China
| | - Li Deng
- Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou, 510623, China
| | - Yun Sun
- Yinchuan Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Yinchuan, 750000, China
| | - Changchong Li
- The 2nd Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325027, China
| | - Rong Jin
- Guiyang Women and Children Healthcare Hospital, Guiyang, 550003, China
| | - Yunxiao Shang
- Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, 110004, China
| | - Xiangpeng Chen
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
| | - Lili Xu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China,Corresponding author.
| | - Zhengde Xie
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, 100045, China,Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, China
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A mixed-methods study on evaluating an updated, francophone version of ETAT+ training in Madagascar. SOUTHERN AFRICAN JOURNAL OF CRITICAL CARE 2022; 38. [PMID: 36284927 PMCID: PMC9549591 DOI: 10.7196/sajcc.2022.v38i2.535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Background
Madagascar needs major efforts to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, despite the considerable reduction of child
mortality during past years. In this context, implementation of emergency triage assessment and treatment (ETAT) plays an important role. In
recent years, ETAT training activities rarely took place in Madagascar. To strengthen ETAT in Madagascar, a pilot training course was conducted
in December 2019 at the University Hospital Mahajanga.
Objectives
This study aims to evaluate if the ETAT+ pilot training content matches clinical needs in Madagascar and whether participants achieved
their learning objectives.
Methods
In this cross-sectional mixed-methods study, a 41-item questionnaire was used at the end of the ETAT+ training to evaluate their
learning experience from the 12 participants (paediatricians, physicians, nurses and midwives). Six weeks after the training, guided interviews were
conducted among five participants to describe how training content could be transferred into clinical practice in five health facilities.
Results
Results suggest that this pilot project designed to contribute to the re-establishment of ETAT in Madagascar meets participants’ needs
and is adapted to clinical realities in terms of transmitted knowledge, skills and competencies. However, results also show that considerable multi-disciplinary efforts are needed to advance ETAT+ implementation in Madagascar.
Conclusion
Implementation processes of ETAT training programmes need re-evaluation to assure their validity to contribute to quality of
care improvements efficiently. Further operational research is required to evaluate sustainable, innovative implementation strategies adapted to
contexts in Madagascar.
Contributions of the study
This study aims to evaluate an updated Malagasy version of the Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment Plus (ETAT+). The training met the
participants’ needs and was adapted to the clinical realities in Madagascar relating to transmitted knowledge, skills and competencies.
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Pneumonia Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors among under-Five Children in Goncha Siso Enesie District, Northwest Ethiopia. ADVANCES IN PUBLIC HEALTH 2022. [DOI: 10.1155/2022/6497895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background. Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among under-five children in various localities of Ethiopia. This study was aimed to assess the prevalence of pneumonia and its associated factors among under-five children who were visiting Ginde Woyin health center, Goncha Siso Enesie District, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods. A health center-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 403 participants by a systematic random sampling technique. Data were collected using questionnaires and sputum diagnosis. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 26.0. Binary and multivariable logistic regressions were used to analyze the risk variables, and
values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results. The overall prevalence of pneumonia among under-five children was 24.3% (95% CI: 20.1, 28.3). The significant predictors for under-five pneumonia identified were the use of wood as a source of fuel for cooking (AOR = 2.769;
), starting complementary food before six months of age (AOR = 2.080; P = 0.033), and mixed breastfeeding conditions (AOR = 5.229;
). The highest under-five pneumonia was observed among children of age below one year (33.6%), rural dwellers (30.4%), family sizes above five (31.8%), children from families with a monthly income of less than 1000 Ethiopian Birr (<19.03 USD) (27.8%), whose mothers were students (61.5%), houses where cooking took place in the living room (37.8%), homes that lacked windows in the kitchens (28.4%), homes that lacked windows (41.5%), and mixed breastfeeders (44.1%). Conclusion. The prevalence of under-five pneumonia in the present study was relatively high. The findings in the present study will help policy makers and program officers to design pneumonia-preventive interventions.
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