Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

Distinct Ecological Habits and Habitat Responses to Future Climate Change in Two Subspecies of Magnolia sieboldii K. Koch, a Tree Endemic to East Asia

Magnolia sieboldii, an important ornamental tree native to East Asia, comprises two subspecies in distinct regions, with wild populations facing suboptimal survival. This study aimed to understand the potential habitat distribution of these subspecies under future climate-change conditions to support climate-adaptive conservation. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with occurrence and environmental data to simulate the current and future suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. Precipitation in the warmest quarter played a crucial role in shaping the potential habitats of both subspecies; however, they exhibited different sensitivities to temperature-related variables and altitude. Magnolia sieboldii subsp. sieboldii is more sensitive to temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature, whereas Magnolia sieboldii subsp. japonica is more affected by altitude, mean temperature in the driest quarter, and isothermality. Currently, the subsp. sieboldii is predicted to have larger, more contiguous suitable habitats across northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, whereas the subsp. japonica occupies smaller, more disjunct habitats scattered in central and western Japan and the southern Chinese mountains. These two subspecies will respond differently to future climate change. Potentially suitable habitats for subsp. sieboldii are expected to expand significantly northward over time, especially under the SSP585 scenario compared with the SSP126 scenario. In contrast, moderately and highly suitable habitats for the subsp. japonica are projected to contract southward significantly. Therefore, we recommend prioritizing the conservation of the subsp. japonica over that of the subsp. sieboldii. Strategies include in situ and ex situ protection, introduction and cultivation, regional hybridization, and international cooperation. Our study offers valuable insights for the development of targeted conservation strategies for both subspecies of M. sieboldii to counteract the effects of climate change.

Projecting Untruncated Climate Change Effects on Species' Climate Suitability: Insights From an Alpine Country

Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate-driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state-of-the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30-year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070-2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate-suitable areas for biodiversity.

Predicting the habitat suitability and species richness of plants of Great Himalayan National Park under different climate change scenarios

This study elucidates the distribution of plants in Great Himalayan National Park (GHNP), India, in current and different future climate change scenarios. The distribution of plants and habitat suitability in GHNP due to climate change was analyzed by MaxEnt, species distribution model (SDM) algorithm. In this study, species presence records were retrieved through field survey and published literature. We have projected the distribution of 44 plant species using MaxEnt and tested whether GHNP is performing well in conserving the plant species. Initially, we have constructed a model for each species and created the habitat suitability map from average of ascii files and later we added the maps of all species in order to make binary map to show the species richness in the selected climate scenarios. The model was created using the HADGEM-2 global circulation model in 2050 and 2070 years by using climate change situations of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The area under curve (AUC) values in the final models of 44 plant species were in the range 0.70-0.97 that indicates statistically significant results. The model identified precipitation of driest month followed by altitude and annual mean temperature as most determining variables in the distribution of plants of GHNP in selected climate scenarios. In the present study, we found that overall suitable habitat increased for nine species, decreased for thirty-four, and unchanged for one plant species in terms of percent area change from current to future scenarios. So these nine species were found to be more adaptable towards changing climate than the other plant species in this study. The species richness was high in western and southwestern parts of GHNP in the current scenario, however under future climatic scenarios, species richness shows a decreasing trend. Based on our findings, it can be concluded that GHNP should be prioritized for conserving the plant species.

Common drivers shaping niche distribution and climate change responses of one hundred tree species

Climate change is increasingly contributing to climatic mismatches, in which habitat suitability changes outpace the dispersal abilities of species. Climate niche models (CNM) have been widely used to assess such impacts on tree species. However, most studies have focused on either a single or a limited number of species, or have employed a fixed set of climate variables for multiple species. These limitations are largely due to the constraints of data availability, the complexity of the modeling algorithms, and integration approaches for the projections of diverse species. Therefore, whether specific climatic drivers determine the climatic niches of multiple tree species remains unclear. In this study, CNMs were developed for 100 economically and ecologically important tree species in China and were used to project their future distribution individually and collectively. Continentality was the predominant climate variable, affecting 71 species, followed by seasonal precipitation, which also significantly influenced over 50 species. Of the 100 tree species, the climate niche extent was projected to expand for 29 ("winners"), contract for 36 ("losers"), be stable for 27, and fluctuate for the remaining eight species. Principal component analysis showed that winners and losers were differentiated by geographic variables and the top five climatic variables, however, not by species type (deciduous vs. evergreen or conifer vs. broadleaf). The regions with the highest species richness were mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, and were predicted to increase from 5.2% to 7.5% of the total area. Areas with low species richness were projected to increase from 33.0% to 42.4%. Significant shifts in species composition were anticipated in these biodiversity-rich areas, suggesting potential disruption owing to species reshuffling. This study highlights the urgent need for proactive forest management and conservation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on tree species and preserve ecological functions by mitigating climatic mismatches. In addition, this study establishes a framework to identify the common environmental drivers affecting niche distribution and evaluates the collective patterns of multiple tree species, thereby providing a scientific reference for enhanced forestry management and climate change mitigation.

Genetic diversity loss in the Anthropocene will continue long after habitat destruction ends

Genetic diversity within species is the basis for evolutionary adaptive capacity and has recently been included as a target for protection in the United Nations' Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). However, there is a lack of reliable large-scale predictive frameworks to quantify how much genetic diversity has already been lost, let alone to quantitatively predict future losses under different conservation scenarios in the 21st century. Combining spatio-temporal population genetic theory with population genomic data of 18 plant and animal species, we studied the dynamics of genetic diversity after habitat area losses. We show genetic diversity reacts slowly to habitat area and population declines, but lagged losses will continue for many decades even after habitats are fully protected. To understand the magnitude of this problem, we combined our predictive method with species' habitat area and population monitoring reported in the Living Planet Index, the Red List, and new GBF indicators. We then project genetic diversity loss in 13,808 species with a short-term genetic diversity loss of 13-22% and long-term loss of 42-48% with substantial deviations depending on the level of habitat fragmentation. These results highlight that protection of only current habitats is insufficient to ensure the genetic health of species and that continuous genetic monitoring alone likely underestimates long term impacts. We provide an area-based spatio-temporal predictive framework to develop quantitative scenarios of global genetic biodiversity.

Social behaviour mediates the microbiome response to antibiotic treatment in a wild mammal

High levels of social connectivity among group-living animals have been hypothesized to benefit individuals by creating opportunities to rapidly reseed the microbiome and maintain stability against disruption. We tested this hypothesis by perturbing the microbiome of a wild population of Grant's gazelles with an antibiotic and asking whether microbiome recovery differs between individuals with high versus low levels of social connectivity. We found that after treatment, individuals with high social connectivity experienced a faster increase in microbiome richness than less socially connected individuals. Unexpectedly, the rapid increase in microbiome richness of highly connected individuals that received treatment led to their microbiomes becoming more distinct relative to the background population. Our results suggest that the microbiome of individuals with high social connectivity can be rapidly recolonized after a perturbation event, but this leads to a microbiome that is more distinct from, rather than more similar to the unperturbed state. This work provides new insight into the role of social interactions in shaping the microbiome.

Proteomic dynamics revealed sex-biased responses to combined heat-drought stress in Marchantia

Recent studies have documented plant responses to climate change extensively, particularly to single-stress exposures. However, critical factors for stress survival, such as sexual differentiation, are not often considered. The dioicous Marchantia polymorpha stands as an evolutionary milestone, potentially preserving ancestral traits from the early colonizers. In this study, we employed proteomic analyses complemented with physiological monitoring to investigate combined heat and drought responses in Tak-1 (male) and Tak-2 (female) accessions of this liverwort. Additionally, targeted transcriptomics was conducted using different natural populations from contrasting environments. Our findings revealed sex-biased dynamics among natural accessions, particularly evident under control conditions and during early stress responses. Although Tak-2 exhibited greater diversity than Tak-1 under control conditions, male accession demonstrated distinct and more rapid stress sensing and signaling. These differences in stress response appeared to be strongly related to sex-specific plasticity influenced by geoclimatic origin. Furthermore, we established distinct protein gene ages and genomic distribution trends, underscoring the importance of protein diversification over time. This study provides an evolutionary perspective on sexual divergence and stress emergence employing a systems biology approach, which allowed for the establishment of global and sex-specific interaction networks in the stress response.

Proximity to humans is associated with antimicrobial-resistant enteric pathogens in wild bird microbiomes

Humans are radically altering global ecology, and one of the most apparent human-induced effects is urbanization, where high-density human habitats disrupt long-established ecotones. Changes to these transitional areas between organisms, especially enhanced contact among humans and wild animals, provide new opportunities for the spread of zoonotic pathogens. This poses a serious threat to global public health, but little is known about how habitat disruption impacts cross-species pathogen spread. Here, we investigated variation in the zoonotic enteric pathogen Campylobacter jejuni. The ubiquity of C. jejuni in wild bird gut microbiomes makes it an ideal organism for understanding how host behavior and ecology influence pathogen transition and spread. We analyzed 700 C. jejuni isolate genomes from 30 bird species in eight countries using a scalable generalized linear model approach. Comparing multiple behavioral and ecological traits showed that proximity to human habitation promotes lineage diversity and is associated with antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) strains in natural populations. Specifically, wild birds from urban areas harbored up to three times more C. jejuni genotypes and AMR genes. This study provides novel methodology and much-needed quantitative evidence linking urbanization to gene pool spread and zoonoses.

Between-year weather differences and long-term environmental trends both contribute to observed vegetation changes in a plot resurvey study

Repeated surveys of vegetation plots offer a viable tool to detect fine-scale responses of vegetation to environmental changes. In this study, our aim was to explore how the species composition and species richness of dry grasslands changed over a period of 17 years, how these changes relate to environmental changes and how the presence of spring ephemerals, which may react to short-term weather fluctuations rather than long-term climatic trends, may influence the results. A total of 95 plots was surveyed in 2005 and resurveyed in 2022 in dry grasslands of the Kiskunság Sand Ridge (Hungary, Eastern Central Europe), where there has been a significant increase in mean annual temperature during the last decades, while no trends in precipitation can be identified. Db-RDA was performed to reveal compositional changes. The changes in environmental conditions and naturalness state were assessed using ecological and naturalness indicator values. We also compared per-plot richness of all species, native species and non-native species of the old and the new relevés. All analyses were repeated after removing all spring ephemerals. We found clear temporal changes in species composition. Mean temperature indicator values increased, while mean soil moisture indicator values decreased during the 17 years. Also, decreasing per-plot richness was detected both for all species and for native species, while mean naturalness increased. After the removal of spring ephemerals, the compositional changes were less obvious although still significant. The increase in the temperature indicator values remained significant even without the spring ephemerals. However, the decrease in the moisture indicator values, the decrease in the number of all species and native species, as well as the increase in naturalness indicator values disappeared when spring ephemerals were excluded from the analyses. Our study demonstrates that between-year weather differences and long-term environmental trends both contribute to observed vegetation changes.

Landscape, Human Disturbance, and Climate Factors Drive the Species Richness of Alien Invasive Plants on Subtropical Islands

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose a significant threat to island biodiversity and severely impact ecosystems. Understanding the species-area relationship and environmental determinants of growth forms for IAP species on subtropical islands is crucial for establishing an IAP's early warning mechanism, enhancing island ecological management, and protecting the ecosystems of Fujian and other subtropical islands. The study identified significant species-area relationships for IAPs and different life-form plants (trees, shrubs, and herbs), with slopes of 0.27, 0.16, 0.15, and 0.24, respectively. The small island effect does not apply to all species. Isolation has little effect on species richness, and the IAPs on Fujian islands do not conform to the isolation effect in island biogeography. Landscape factors are the main determinants of IAPs and different life-form species richness, with area, shape index, and perimeter-area ratio being the three primary landscape factors. These environmental factors are closely related to habitat heterogeneity. Besides landscape factors, different life forms respond differently to environmental factors. Climate drives the species richness distribution of shrubs and herbs, while trees are mainly influenced by human activities. Overall, landscape, human disturbance, and climate jointly drive the distribution of IAPs, with landscape factors being the most significant.

Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Türkiye

The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.

Using climate envelopes and earth system model simulations for assessing climate change induced forest vulnerability

Changing climatic conditions threaten forest ecosystems. Drought, disease and infestation, are leading to forest die-offs which cause substantial economic and ecological losses. In central Europe, this is especially relevant for commercially important coniferous tree species. This study uses climate envelope exceedance (CEE) to approximate species risk under different future climate scenarios. To achieve this, we used current species presence-absence and historical climate data, coupled with future climate scenarios from various Earth System Models. Climate scenarios tended towards drier and warmer conditions, causing strong CEEs especially for spruce. However, we show that annual averages of temperature and precipitation obscure climate extremes. Including climate extremes reveals a broader increase in CEEs across all tree species. Our study shows that the consideration of climate extremes, which cannot be adequately reflected in annual averages, leads to a different assessment of the risk of forests and thus the options for adapting to climate change.

Modelling reveals the effect of climate and land use change on Madagascar's chameleons fauna

The global biodiversity crisis is generated by the combined effects of human-induced climate change and land conversion. Madagascar is one of the World's most renewed hotspots of biodiversity. Yet, its rich variety of plant and animal species is threatened by deforestation and climate change. Predicting the future of Madagascar's chameleons, in particular, is complicated by their ecological rarity, making it hard to tell which factor is the most menacing to their survival. By applying an extension of the ENphylo species distribution model algorithm to work with extremely rare species, we find that Madagascar chameleons will face intense species loss in the north-western sector of the island. Land conversion by humans will drive most of the loss, and will intersect in a complex, nonlinear manner with climate change. We find that some 30% of the Madagascar's chameleons may lose in the future nearly all their habitats, critically jeopardizing their chance for survival.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Species Richness of Endemic Wetland Plants in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP.

Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate-induced latitudinal shifts

Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MID), and the current and future (2050s and 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T. sinense in the current period are mainly located in Southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and surface calcium carbonate content (T-CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense. (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in mid-Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of T. sinense. With global warming, the range of T. sinense suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift toward higher-latitude regions. Ex situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.

Population status, habitat preferences and predictive current and future distributions of three endangered Silene species under changing climate

One of the most crucial steps in the practical conservation of endangered endemic mountain plants is to address their population size status and habitat requirements concurrently with understanding their response to future global warming. Three endangered Silene species-Silene leucophylla Boiss., S. schimperiana Boiss., and S. oreosinaica Chowdhuri-in Egypt were the focus of the current study. These species were examined for population status change, habitat quality variables (topography, soil features, and threats), and predictive current and future distributions. To find population size changes, recent field surveys and historical records were compared. Using Random Forest (RF) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), habitat preferences were assessed. To forecast present-day distribution and climate change response, an ensemble model was used. The results reported a continuous decline in the population size of the three species. Both RF and CCA addressed that elevation, soil texture (silt, sand, and clay fractions), soil moisture, habitat-type, chlorides, electric conductivity, and slope were among the important variables associated with habitat quality. The central northern sector of the Saint Catherine area is the hotspot location for the predictive current distribution of three species with suitable areas of 291.40, 293.10, and 58.29 km2 for S. leucophylla, S. schimperiana, and S. oreosinaica, respectively. Precipitation-related variables and elevation were the key predictors for the current distribution of three Silene species. In response to climate change scenarios, the three Silene species exhibited a gradual contraction in the predictive suitable areas with upward shifts by 2050 and 2070. The protection of these species and reintroduction to the predicted current and future climatically suitable areas are urgent priorities. Ex-situ conservation and raised surveillance, as well as fenced enclosures may catapult as promising and effective approaches to conserving such threatened species.

Decline in Honeybees and Its Consequences for Beekeepers and Crop Pollination in Western Nepal

In understudied regions of the world, beekeeper records can provide valuable insights into changes in pollinator population trends. We conducted a questionnaire survey of 116 beekeepers in a mountainous area of Western Nepal, where the native honeybee Apis cerana cerana is kept as a managed bee. We complemented the survey with field data on insect-crop visitation, a household income survey, and an interview with a local lead beekeeper. In total, 76% of beekeepers reported declines in honeybees, while 86% and 78% reported declines in honey yield and number of beehives, respectively. Honey yield per hive fell by 50% between 2012 and 2022, whilst the number of occupied hives decreased by 44%. Beekeepers ranked climate change and declining flower abundance as the most important drivers of the decline. This raises concern for the future food and economic security of this region, where honey sales contribute to 16% of total household income, and where Apis cerana cerana plays a major role in crop pollination, contributing more than 50% of all flower visits to apple, cucumber, and pumpkin. To mitigate further declines, we promote native habitat and wildflower preservation, and using well-insulated log hives to buffer bees against the increasingly extreme temperature fluctuations.

Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change

Chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) is extensively cultivated in China, with its production highly reliant on regional environmental conditions. Given ongoing climate change, it is imperative to assess its impact on chili pepper cultivation and identify suitable habitats for future cultivation. In this study, the MaxEnt model was optimized and utilized to predict suitable habitats for open-field chili pepper cultivation, and changes in these habitats were analyzed using ArcGIS v10.8. Our results showed that the parameter settings of the optimal model were FC = LQPTH and RM = 2.7, and the critical environmental variables influencing chili pepper distribution were annual mean temperature, isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats were distributed across all provinces in China, with moderately- and highly-suitable habitats concentrated in the east of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats was expected to be larger than the current ones, except for SSP126-2050s, and reached the maximum under SSP126-2090s. The overlapping suitable habitats were concentrated in the east of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau under various climate scenarios. In the 2050s, the centroids of suitable habitats were predicted to shift towards the southwest, except for SSP126, whereas this trend was reversed in the 2090s. Our results suggest that climate warming is conductive to the cultivation of chili pepper, and provide scientific guidance for the introduction and cultivation of chili pepper in the face of climate warming.

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia

Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio-environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

Climatic and biogeographic processes underlying the diversification of the pantropical flowering plant family Annonaceae

Tropical forests harbor the richest biodiversity among terrestrial ecosystems, but few studies have addressed the underlying processes of species diversification in these ecosystems. We use the pantropical flowering plant family Annonaceae as a study system to investigate how climate and biogeographic events contribute to diversification. A super-matrix phylogeny comprising 835 taxa (34% of Annonaceae species) based on eight chloroplast regions was used in this study. We show that global temperature may better explain the recent rapid diversification in Annonaceae than time and constant models. Accelerated accumulation of niche divergence (around 15 Ma) lags behind the increase of diversification rate (around 25 Ma), reflecting a heterogeneous transition to recent diversity increases. Biogeographic events are related to only two of the five diversification rate shifts detected. Shifts in niche evolution nevertheless appear to be associated with increasingly seasonal environments. Our results do not support the direct correlation of any particular climatic niche shifts or historical biogeographical event with shifts in diversification rate. Instead, we suggest that Annonaceae diversification can lead to later niche divergence as a result of increasing interspecific competition arising from species accumulation. Shifts in niche evolution appear to be associated with increasingly seasonal environments. Our results highlight the complexity of diversification in taxa with long evolutionary histories.

Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.

The relationship between niche breadth and phylogenetic characteristics of eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Asia

The relationship between spatial distribution and phylogeny has been widely debated in recent decades. To understand biogeographic and evolutionary history relationships and to explore the interspecific similarities and phylogenetic correlations of niche characteristics, we collected and recorded all distribution points for eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, used different methods to describe the ecological niche, and explored the relationship between phylogeny, ecological niche, and distribution range. The results reveal that: (1) the ranges of optimal environmental variables for species with close kinship are not exactly the same, ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species, and the overlap of rhubarb has no significant correlation with phylogeny. Therefore, the impact of ecological dimensions on species formation is greater than that of geographical latitude for the eight species of rhubarb. (2) Among the eight species of rhubarb, the breadth of ecological niche is positively correlated with the current suitable habitat area and negatively correlated with fluctuations in future suitable habitat area. In the future, except for Rheum tanguticum and Rheum palmatum, the suitable planting areas for the other six species of rhubarb will decrease as greenhouse gas emissions concentrations and time increase. Therefore, species with smaller ecological niches are at a greater risk of habitat loss compared to species with larger ecological niches. (3) In both existing and future distribution prediction models of rhubarb, we observed that both the widely distributed Rheum spiciforme and the niche narrow Rheum nobile, all eight species of rhubarb are present in the Hengduan Mountains, based on our analysis, we propose that the Hengduan Mountains should be regarded as a priority conservation area for rhubarb, to preserve the species' biodiversity. Our study lays the groundwork for identifying evolutionary trends in ecological specialization.

Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Genomic evidence for climate-linked diversity loss and increased vulnerability of wild barley spanning 28 years of climate warming

The information on how plant populations respond genetically to climate warming is scarce. Here, landscape genomic and machine learning approaches were integrated to assess genetic response of 10 wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum; WB) populations in the past and future, using whole genomic sequencing (WGS) data. The WB populations were sampled in 1980 and again in 2008. Phylogeny of accessions was roughly in conformity with sampling sites, which accompanied by admixture/introgressions. The 28-y climate warming resulted in decreased genetic diversity, increased selection pressure, and an increase in deleterious single nucleotide polymorphism (dSNP) numbers, heterozygous deleterious and total deleterious burdens for WB. Genome-environment associations identified some candidate genes belonging to peroxidase family (HORVU2Hr1G057450, HORVU4Hr1G052060 and HORVU4Hr1G057210) and heat shock protein 70 family (HORVU2Hr1G112630). The gene HORVU2Hr1G120170 identified by selective sweep analysis was under strong selection during the climate warming of the 28-y, and its derived haplotypes were fixed by WB when faced with the 28-y increasingly severe environment. Temperature variables were found to be more important than precipitation variables in influencing genomic variation, with an eco-physiological index gdd5 (growing degree-days at the baseline threshold temperature of 5 °C) being the most important determinant. Gradient forest modelling revealed higher predicted genomic vulnerability in Sede Boqer under future climate scenarios at 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Additionally, estimates of effective population size (Ne) tracing back to 250 years indicated a forward decline in all populations over time. Our assessment about past genetic response and future vulnerability of WB under climate warming is crucial for informing conservation efforts for wild cereals and rational use strategies.

Repeated upslope biome shifts in Saxifraga during late-Cenozoic climate cooling

Mountains are among the most biodiverse places on Earth, and plant lineages that inhabit them have some of the highest speciation rates ever recorded. Plant diversity within the alpine zone - the elevation above which trees cannot grow-contributes significantly to overall diversity within mountain systems, but the origins of alpine plant diversity are poorly understood. Here, we quantify the processes that generate alpine plant diversity and their changing dynamics through time in Saxifraga (Saxifragaceae), an angiosperm genus that occurs predominantly in mountain systems. We present a time-calibrated molecular phylogenetic tree for the genus that is inferred from 329 low-copy nuclear loci and incorporates 73% (407) of known species. We show that upslope biome shifts into the alpine zone are considerably more prevalent than dispersal of alpine specialists between regions, and that the rate of upslope biome shifts increased markedly in the last 5 Myr, a timeframe concordant with a cooling and fluctuating climate that is likely to have increased the extent of the alpine zone. Furthermore, alpine zone specialists have lower speciation rates than generalists that occur inside and outside the alpine zone, and major speciation rate increases within Saxifraga significantly pre-date increased rates of upslope biome shifts. Specialisation to the alpine zone is not therefore associated with speciation rate increases. Taken together, this study presents a quantified and broad scale perspective of processes underpinning alpine plant diversity.

Climate change filtered out resource-acquisitive plants in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, China

Global climate change has led to the decline of species and functional diversity in ecosystems, changing community composition and ecosystem functions. However, we still know little about how species with different resource-use strategies (different types of resource usage and plant growth of plants as indicated by the spectrum of plant economic traits, including acquisitive resource-use strategy and conservative resource-use strategy) would change in response to climate change, and how the changes in the diversity of species with different resource-use strategies may influence community-level productivity. Here, using long-term (1982-2017) observatory data in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, we investigated how climate change had affected the species richness (SR) and functional richness (FRic) for the whole community and for species with different resource-use strategies. Specifically, based on data for four traits representing leaf economics spectrum (leaf carbon concentration, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf phosphorus concentration, and specific leaf area), we divided 81 plant species appearing in the grassland community into three plant functional types representing resource-acquisitive, medium, and resource-conservative species. We then analyzed the changes in community-level productivity in response to the decline of SR and FRic at the community level and for different resource-use strategies. We found that community-level SR and FRic decreased with drying climate, which was largely driven by the decline of diversity for resource-acquisitive species. However, community-level productivity remained stable because resource-conservative species dominating this grassland were barely affected by climate change. Our study revealed distinctive responses of species with different resource-use strategies to climate change and provided a new approach based on species functional traits for predicting the magnitude and direction of climate change effects on ecosystem functions.

Future changes in key plant traits across Central Europe vary with biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat type

Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies and thus informing about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Yet, the evidence of trait-environment relationships (TERs) remains too heterogeneous for reliable predictions, partially due to insufficient consideration of trait syndromes specific to certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is still unclear whether non-native and native plants' traits align similarly along environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the impacts of future plant invasions. Using a Bayesian multilevel modelling framework, we assess TERs for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plants across six broad habitat types in Central Europe at a resolution of c. 130 km2 and use them to project trait change under future environmental change scenarios until 2081-2100. We model TERs between three key plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; seed mass, SM) and individual environmental factors (7 climate variables and % urban land cover) and estimate trait change summed across all environmental effects. We also quantify the change in the average trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depict multiple TERs, with important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience a future increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is estimated to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight conditions of competitive advantage of non-native plants over natives and vice versa and can serve as starting points for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services.

Projected climate and canopy change lead to thermophilization and homogenization of forest floor vegetation in a hotspot of plant species richness

Mountain forests are plant diversity hotspots, but changing climate and increasing forest disturbances will likely lead to far-reaching plant community change. Projecting future change, however, is challenging for forest understory plants, which respond to forest structure and composition as well as climate. Here, we jointly assessed the effects of both climate and forest change, including wind and bark beetle disturbances, using the process-based simulation model iLand in a protected landscape in the northern Alps (Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany), asking: (1) How do understory plant communities respond to 21st-century change in a topographically complex mountain landscape, representing a hotspot of plant species richness? (2) How important are climatic changes (i.e., direct climate effects) versus forest structure and composition changes (i.e., indirect climate effects and recovery from past land use) in driving understory responses at landscape scales? Stacked individual species distribution models fit with climate, forest, and soil predictors (248 species currently present in the landscape, derived from 150 field plots stratified by elevation and forest development, overall area under the receiving operator characteristic curve = 0.86) were driven with projected climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and modeled forest variables to predict plant community change. Nearly all species persisted in the landscape in 2050, but on average 8% of the species pool was lost by the end of the century. By 2100, landscape mean species richness and understory cover declined (-13% and -8%, respectively), warm-adapted species increasingly dominated plant communities (i.e., thermophilization, +12%), and plot-level turnover was high (62%). Subalpine forests experienced the greatest richness declines (-16%), most thermophilization (+17%), and highest turnover (67%), resulting in plant community homogenization across elevation zones. Climate rather than forest change was the dominant driver of understory responses. The magnitude of unabated 21st-century change is likely to erode plant diversity in a species richness hotspot, calling for stronger conservation and climate mitigation efforts.

High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change

Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.

Application of MaxEnt modeling to evaluate the climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Lippia javanica (Burm.f.) Spreng in Africa

Lippia javanica is a typical indigenous plant species mostly found in the higher elevation or mountainous regions in southern, central, and eastern Africa. The ongoing utilization of the species for ethnobotanical applications and traditional uses, coupled with the changing climate, increases the risk of a potential reduction in its geographic distribution range in the region. Herein, we utilized the MaxEnt species distribution modelling to build the L. javanica distribution models in tropical and subtropical African regions for current and future climates. The MaxEnt models were calibrated and fitted using 286 occurrence records and six environmental variables. Temperatures, including temperature seasonality [Bio 4] and the maximum temperature of the warmest month [Bio 5], were observed to be the most significant determinants of L. javanica's distribution. The current projected range for L. javanica was estimated to be 2,118,457 km2. Future model predictions indicated that L. javanica may increase its geographic distribution in western areas of the continent and regions around the equator; however, much of the geographic range in southern Africa may shift southwards, causing the species to lose portions of the northern limits of the habitat range. These current findings can help increase the conservation of L. javanica and other species and combat localized species loss induced by climate change and human pressure. We also emphasize the importance of more investigations and enhanced surveillance of traditionally used plant species in regions that are acutely susceptible to climate change.

Predicting the future of threatened birds from a Neotropical ecotone area

Climate change affects ecosystems in different ways. These effects are particularly worrying in the Neotropical region, where species are most vulnerable to these changes because they live closer to their thermal safety limits. Thus, establishing conservation priorities, particularly for the definition of protected areas (PAs), is a priority. However, some PA systems within the Neotropics are ineffective even under the present environmental conditions. Here, we test the effectiveness of a PA system, within an ecotone in northern Brazil, in protecting 24 endangered bird species under current and future (RCP8.5) climatic scenarios. We used species distribution modeling and dispersal corridor modeling to describe the priority areas for conservation of these species. Our results indicate that several threatened bird taxa are and will potentially be protected (i.e., occur within PAs). Nonetheless, the amount of protected area is insufficient to maintain the species in the ecotone. Moreover, most taxa will probably present drastic declines in their range sizes; some are even predicted to go globally extinct soon. Thus, we highlight the location of a potentially effective system of dispersal corridors that connects PAs in the ecotone. We reinforce the need to implement public policies and raise public awareness to maintain PAs and mitigate anthropogenic effects within them, corridors, and adjacent areas, aiming to conserve the richness and diversity of these already threatened species.

Climate Change Potentially Leads to Habitat Expansion and Increases the Invasion Risk of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae)

Climate change is a crucial factor impacting the geographical distribution of plants and potentially increases the risk of invasion for certain species, especially for aquatic plants dispersed by water flow. Here, we combined six algorithms provided by the biomod2 platform to predict the changes in global climate-suitable areas for five species of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae) (H. chevalieri, H. dubia, H. laevigata, H. morsus-ranae, and H. spongia) under two current and future carbon emission scenarios. Our results show that H. dubia, H. morsus-ranae, and H. laevigata had a wide range of suitable areas and a high risk of invasion, while H. chevalieri and H. spongia had relatively narrow suitable areas. In the future climate scenario, the species of Hydrocharis may gain a wider habitat area, with Northern Hemisphere species showing a trend of migration to higher latitudes and the change in tropical species being more complex. The high-carbon-emission scenario led to greater changes in the habitat area of Hydrocharis. Therefore, we recommend strengthening the monitoring and reporting of high-risk species and taking effective measures to control the invasion of Hydrocharis species.

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

Climate effect on the growth and hydraulic traits of two shrubs from the top of a Mediterranean mountain

Increasing mean global temperatures in conjunction with increases in the frequency and severity of drought events affect plant growth and physiology, particularly in more arid and mountainous ecosystems. Thus, it is imperative to understand the response of plant growth to climatic oscillations in these regions. This study used dendrochronological and wood anatomical traits of two shrub species growing over 1500 m.a.s.l. in the Serra da Estrela (Portugal), Juniperus communis and Cytisus oromediterraneus, to analyze their response to temperature and water availability parameters. Results showed an increase in shrub growth related to the increase over time of the mean minimum and maximum monthly temperature in Serra da Estrela. Warming seems to promote shrub growth because it lengthens the growing season, although J. communis responds mainly to spring maximum temperature while C. oromediterraneus is influenced by fall maximum temperature. Hydraulic traits of J. communis and C. oromediterraneus were negatively influenced by winter drought. Additionally, there were species-specific differences in response to changes in water availability. J. communis radial growth was significantly affected by spring drought conditions, while C. oromediterraneus radial growth was significantly affected by spring precipitation. C. oromediterraneus hydraulic traits were also significantly affected by drought conditions from the previous spring and fall. This study shed light on specific differences in the response to climate between two co-occurring shrub species in the top of an understudied Mediterranean mountain, which could have implications in the future distribution of woody species within this region.

Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) holds a substantial position as a tree species designated for biomass energy within European forests, covering a significant part of Türkiye's forests. We used the machine learning technique, namely, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), to estimate the suitable areas for Scots pine and to investigate its potential future distribution under various climate change scenarios in Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye. The distribution data of Scots pine was utilized, and a set of 20 variables was chosen from spectral, topographic, and bioclimatic datasets to train the MaxEnt model. A map depicting the potential distribution of Scots pine in the area was generated, and alterations in its spatial distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that the most effective factors for the distribution of Scots pine in the region were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Red band of the imagery, and Bio19 variables, and the contribution percentages were 45.6%, 18.5%, and 18.1%, respectively. Current conditions have indicated that 81.11% of the region is not suitable for Scots pine. Highly suitable areas for Scots pine constituted 0.88% of the total area in the east and southeast parts of the region. Considering the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it has been determined that there may be a partial increase in highly suitable areas. The above-ground biomass (AGB) data generated based on potential distribution areas were predicted between 0.04 and 168.76 t ha-1, and the areas with dense biomass over 120 t ha-1 were identified in the west, north, and northeast parts of the region. While actual AGB of Scots pine was 6.92 MT, its potential AGB was estimated 125.93 MT in total area. The difference may well be attributed to the wide potential distribution of Scots pine stands in the area apart from the current forest lands. Nevertheless, this research contributes to the holistic management of forests and provides substantial values for formulating well-suited silvicultural interventions, developing sustainable forest management strategies, and furthering research aimed at estimating biomass reserves.

Analysis of gaps in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) collections in European genebanks

Rapeseed is one of the most important agricultural crops and is used in many ways. Due to the advancing climate crisis, the yield potential of rapeseed is increasingly impaired. In addition to changing environmental conditions, the expansion of cultivated areas also favours the infestation of rapeseed with various pests and pathogens. This results in the need for continuous further development of rapeseed varieties. To this end, the potential of the rapeseed gene pool should be exploited, as the various species included in it contain promising resistance alleles against pests and pathogens. In general, the biodiversity of crops and their wild relatives is increasingly endangered. In order to conserve them and to provide impulses for breeding activities as well, strategies for the conservation of plant genetic resources are necessary. In this study, we investigated to what extent the different species of the rapeseed gene pool are conserved in European genebanks and what gaps exist. In addition, a niche modelling approach was used to investigate how the natural distribution ranges of these species are expected to change by the end of the century, assuming different climate change scenarios. It was found that most species of the rapeseed gene pool are significantly underrepresented in European genebanks, especially regarding representation of the natural distribution areas. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the natural distributions are expected to change, in some cases significantly, as a result of ongoing climate change. It is therefore necessary to further develop strategies to prevent the loss of wild relatives of rapeseed. Based on the results of the study, as a first step we have proposed a priority list of species that should be targeted for collecting in order to conserve the biodiversity of the rapeseed gene pool in the long term.

The Perspective of Arctic-Alpine Species in Southernmost Localities: The Example of Kalmia procumbens in the Pyrenees and Carpathians

High-mountain and arctic plants are considered especially sensitive to climate change because of their close adaptation to the cold environment. Kalmia procumbens, a typical arctic-alpine species, reaches southernmost European localities in the Pyrenees and Carpathians. The aim of this study was the assessment and comparison of the current potential niche areas of K. procumbens in the Pyrenees and Carpathians and their possible reduction due to climate change, depending on the scenario. The realized niches of K. procumbens in the Pyrenees are compact, while those in the Carpathians are dispersed. In both mountain chains, the species occurs in the alpine and subalpine vegetation belts, going down to elevations of about 1500-1600 m, while the most elevated localities in the Pyrenees are at ca. 3000 m, about 500 m higher than those in the Carpathians. The localities of K. procumbens in the Carpathians have a more continental climate than those in the Pyrenees, with lower precipitation and temperatures but higher seasonality of temperature and precipitation. The species covered a larger area of geographic range during the Last Glacial Maximum, but its geographic range was reduced during the mid-Holocene. Due to climate warming, a reduction in the potential area of occurrence could be expected in 2100; this reduction is expected to be strong in the Carpathians and moderate in the Pyrenees.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

Beat the heat: thermal respites and access to food associated with increased bumble bee heat tolerance

Climate change poses a threat to organisms across the world, with cold-adapted species such as bumble bees (Bombus spp.) at particularly high risk. Understanding how organisms respond to extreme heat events associated with climate change as well as the factors that increase resilience or prime organisms for future stress can inform conservation actions. We investigated the effects of heat stress within different contexts (duration, periodicity, with and without access to food, and in the laboratory versus field) on bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) survival and heat tolerance. We found that both prolonged (5 h) heat stress and nutrition limitation were negatively correlated with worker bee survival and thermal tolerance. However, the effects of these acute stressors were not long lasting (no difference in thermal tolerance among treatment groups after 24 h). Additionally, intermittent heat stress, which more closely simulates the forager behavior of leaving and returning to the nest, was not negatively correlated with worker thermal tolerance. Thus, short respites may allow foragers to recover from thermal stress. Moreover, these results suggest there is no priming effect resulting from short- or long-duration exposure to heat - bees remained equally sensitive to heat in subsequent exposures. In field-caught bumble bees, foragers collected during warmer versus cooler conditions exhibited similar thermal tolerance after being allowed to recover in the lab for 16 h. These studies offer insight into the impacts of a key bumble bee stressor and highlight the importance of recovery duration, stressor periodicity and context on bumble bee thermal tolerance outcomes.

Dryness limits vegetation pace to cope with temperature change in warm regions

Climate change leads to increasing temperature and more extreme hot and drought events. Ecosystem capability to cope with climate warming depends on vegetation's adjusting pace with temperature change. How environmental stresses impair such a vegetation pace has not been carefully investigated. Here we show that dryness substantially dampens vegetation pace in warm regions to adjust the optimal temperature of gross primary production (GPP) (T opt GPP ) in response to change in temperature over space and time.T opt GPP spatially converges to an increase of 1.01°C (95% CI: 0.97, 1.05) per 1°C increase in the yearly maximum temperature (Tmax ) across humid or cold sites worldwide (37o S-79o N) but only 0.59°C (95% CI: 0.46, 0.74) per 1°C increase in Tmax across dry and warm sites.T opt GPP temporally changes by 0.81°C (95% CI: 0.75, 0.87) per 1°C interannual variation in Tmax at humid or cold sites and 0.42°C (95% CI: 0.17, 0.66) at dry and warm sites. Regardless of the water limitation, the maximum GPP (GPPmax ) similarly increases by 0.23 g C m-2 day-1 per 1°C increase inT opt GPP in either humid or dry areas. Our results indicate that the future climate warming likely stimulates vegetation productivity more substantially in humid than water-limited regions.

Variation in the Drought Tolerance of Tropical Understory Plant Communities across an Extreme Elevation and Precipitation Gradient

Little is known about how differences in water availability within the "super humid" tropics can influence the physiology of understory plant species and the composition of understory plant communities. We investigated the variation in the physiological drought tolerances of hundreds of understory plants in dozens of plant communities across an extreme elevation and precipitation gradient. Specifically, we established 58 understory plots along a gradient of 400-3600 m asl elevation and 1000-6000 mm yr-1 rainfall in and around Manu National Park in southeastern Peru. Within the plots, we sampled all understory woody plants and measured three metrics of physiological leaf drought tolerance-turgor loss point (TLP), cuticular conductance (Gmin), and solute leakage (SL)-and assessed how the community-level means of these three traits related to the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and elevation (along the study gradient, the temperature decreases linearly, and the vapor pressure deficit increases monotonically with elevation). We did not find any correlations between the three metrics of leaf drought tolerance, suggesting that they represent independent strategies for coping with a low water availability. Despite being widely used metrics of leaf drought tolerance, neither the TLP nor Gmin showed any significant relationships with elevation or the MAP. In contrast, SL, which has only recently been developed for use in ecological field studies, increased significantly at higher precipitations and at lower elevations (i.e., plants in colder and drier habitats have a lower average SL, indicating greater drought tolerances). Our results illustrate that differences in water availability may affect the physiology of tropical montane plants and thus play a strong role in structuring plant communities even in the super humid tropics. Our results also highlight the potential for SL assays to be efficient and effective tools for measuring drought tolerances in the field.

Buchanania cochinchinensis (Lour.) M.R. Almedia habitat exhibited robust adaptability to diverse socioeconomic scenarios in eastern India

One of the greatest challenges to ecosystems is the rapidity of climate change, and their ability to adjust swiftly will be constrained. Climate change will disrupt the ecological balances, causing species to track suitable habitats for survival. Consequently, understanding the species' response to climate change is crucial for its conservation and management, and for enhancing biodiversity through effective management. This research intends to examine the response of the vulnerable Buchanania cochinchinensis species to climate change. We modeled the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for the present and future climatic scenario proxies based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), i.e. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585. Maxent was used to simulate the potential habitats of B. cochinchinensis. The study found that ~28,313 km2 (~10.7% of the study area) was a potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis for the current scenario. The majority of the suitable habitat area ~25,169 km2 occurred in the central and southern parts of the study area. The future projection shows that the suitable habitat to largely increase in the range of 10.5-20% across all the SSPs, with a maximum gain of ~20% for SSP 126. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_08) was the most influential contributing variable in limiting the distribution of B. cochinchinensis. The majority of the suitable habitat area occurred in the vegetation landscape. The study shows a southward shifting of B. cochinchinensis habitat by 2050. The phytosociological analysis determined B. cochinchinensis as Shorea robusta's primary associate. Our research provides significant insight into the prospective distribution scenario of B. cochinchinensis habitat and its response to diverse socioeconomic scenarios, and offers a solid foundation for management of this extremely important species.

Demographic responses of hybridizing cinquefoils to changing climate in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Hybridization between taxa generates new pools of genetic variation that can lead to different environmental responses and demographic trajectories over time than seen in parental lineages. The potential for hybrids to have novel environmental tolerances may be increasingly important in mountainous regions, which are rapidly warming and drying due to climate change. Demographic analysis makes it possible to quantify within- and among-species responses to variation in climate and to predict population growth rates as those conditions change. We estimated vital rates and population growth in 13 natural populations of two cinquefoil taxa (Potentilla hippiana and P. pulcherrima) and their hybrid across elevation gradients in the Southern Rockies. Using three consecutive years of environmental and demographic data, we compared the demographic responses of hybrid and parental taxa to environmental variation across space and time. All three taxa had lower predicted population growth rates under warm, dry conditions. However, the magnitude of these responses varied among taxa and populations. Hybrids had consistently lower predicted population growth rates than P. hippiana. In contrast, hybrid performance relative to P. pulcherrima varied with population and climate, with the hybrid maintaining relatively stable growth rates while populations of P. pulcherrima shrank under warm, dry conditions. Our findings demonstrate that hybrids in this system are neither intrinsically unfit nor universally more vigorous than parents, suggesting that the demographic consequences of hybridization are context-dependent. Our results also imply that shifts to warmer and drier conditions could have particularly negative repercussions for P. pulcherrima, which is currently the most abundant taxon in the study area, possibly as a legacy of more favorable historical climates. More broadly, the distributions of these long-lived taxa are lagging behind their demographic trajectories, such that the currently less common P. hippiana could become the most abundant of the Potentilla taxa as this region continues to warm and dry.

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Storylines are introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of this concept by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of purposes, understandings, and methodologies. This semi-systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios-familiar for their use in IPCC reports-discourse-analytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening peer-reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, 270 articles are selected, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. The results indicate that each scholarly community works with a finite and different set of methods and diverging understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. This article proposes that cross-pollination among the approaches can improve the usefulness and usability of climate-related storylines. Among good practices are the involvement of a broader range of scientific disciplines and expertise, use of mixed-methods, assessment of storylines against a wider set of quality criteria, and targeted stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for panda conservation under future climate and land use change scenarios

While the relatively stable land use and land cover (LULC) patterns is an important feature of protected areas (PAs), the influence of this feature on future species distribution and the effectiveness of the PAs has rarely been explored. Here, we assessed the role of land use patterns within PAs on the projected range of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) by comparing projections inside and outside of PAs for four model configurations: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and dynamic land use covariates, (3) climate and static land use covariates and (4) climate and hybrid dynamic-static land use covariates. Our objectives were twofold: to understand the role of protected status on projected panda habitat suitability and evaluate the relative efficacy of different climate modeling approaches. The climate and land use change scenarios used in the models include two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios: SSP126 [an optimistic scenario] and SSP585 [a pessimistic scenario]. We found that models including land-use covariates performed significantly better than climate-only models and that these projected more suitable habitat than climate-only models. Static land-use models projected more suitable habitat than both the dynamic and hybrid models under SSP126, while these models did not differ under SSP585. China's panda reserve system was projected to effectively maintain suitable habitat inside PAs. Panda dispersal ability also significantly impacted outcomes, with most models assuming unlimited dispersal forecasting range expansion and models assuming zero dispersal consistently forecasting range contraction. Our findings highlight that policies targeting improved land-use practices should be an effective means for offsetting some of the negative effects of climate change on pandas. As the effectiveness of PAs is projected to be maintained, we recommend the judicious management and expansion of the PA system to ensure the resilience of panda populations into the future.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Is Fluctuating Asymmetry a Sufficient Indicator of Stress Level in Two Lizard Species (Zootoca vivipara and Lacerta agilis) from Alpine Habitats?

Alpine habitats are exposed to increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change. The negative impacts can lead to chronic stress that can affect the survival and reproductive success of individuals and even lead to population extinction. In this study, we analyse different morphological and ecological traits and indices of abiotic and biotic stressors (such as head size and shape, fluctuating asymmetry, body condition index, tail autotomy, and population abundance) in alpine and subalpine populations of two lacertid species (Zootoca vivipara and Lacerta agilis) from Serbia and North Macedonia. These lizards live under different conditions: allotopy/syntopy, different anthropogenic pressure, and different levels of habitat protection. We found differences between syntopic and allotopic populations in pileus size, body condition index (in both species), pileus shape, fluctuating asymmetry (in L. agilis), and abundance (in Z. vivipara). Differences between populations under anthropogenic pressure and populations without it were observed in pileus shape, body condition index (in both species), pileus size, fluctuating asymmetry, tail autotomy and abundance (in L. agilis). On the basis of our results, it is necessary to include other stress indicators in addition to fluctuating asymmetry to quickly observe and quantify the negative effects of threat factors and apply protective measures.