The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Immunogenicity of an Extended Dose Interval for the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola Vaccine Regimen in Adults and Children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo, a phase 3 trial of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine (DRC-EB-001) commenced in Goma, with participants being offered the two-dose regimen given 56 days apart. Suspension of trial activities in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic led to some participants receiving a late dose 2 outside the planned interval. Blood samples were collected from adults, adolescents, and children prior to their delayed dose 2 vaccination and 21 days after, and tested for IgG binding antibodies against Ebola virus glycoprotein using the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group (FANG) ELISA. Results from 133 participants showed a median two-dose interval of 9.3 months. The pre-dose 2 antibody geometric mean concentration (GMC) was 217 ELISA Units (EU)/mL (95% CI 157; 301) in adults, 378 EU/mL (281; 510) in adolescents, and 558 EU/mL (471; 661) in children. At 21 days post-dose 2, the GMC increased to 22,194 EU/mL (16,726; 29,449) in adults, 37,896 EU/mL (29,985; 47,893) in adolescents, and 34,652 EU/mL (27,906; 43,028) in children. Participants receiving a delayed dose 2 had a higher GMC at 21 days post-dose 2 than those who received a standard 56-day regimen in other African trials, but similar to those who received the regimen with an extended interval.

Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks: Lessons Learned From Past and Facing Future Challenges

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this review is to examine African Ebola outbreaks from their first discovery to the present, to determine how the medical and public health response has changed and identify the causes for those changes. We sought to describe what is now known about the epidemiology and spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from the significant outbreaks that have occurred and outbreak control methods applied under often challenging circumstances. Given the substantial role that the U.S. Government and the U.S. DoD have played in the 2014 to 2016 West African Ebola outbreak, the role of the DoD and the U.S. Africa Command in controlling EVD is described.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A descriptive method design was used to collect and analyze all available Ebola outbreak literature using the PubMed database. An initial literature search was conducted by searching for, obtaining, and reading original source articles on all major global Ebola outbreaks. To conduct a focused search, we used initial search terms "Ebola outbreak," "Ebola virus disease," "Ebola response," "Ebola countermeasures," and also included each country's name where Ebola cases are known to have occurred. From the 4,673 unique articles obtained from this search and subsequent article title review, 307 articles were identified for potential inclusion. Following abstract and article review, 45 original source articles were used to compile the history of significant Ebola outbreaks. From this compilation, articles focused on each respective subsection of this review to delineate and describe the history of EVD and response, identifying fundamental changes, were obtained and incorporated.

RESULTS

We present known Ebola virus and disease attributes, including a general description, seasonality and location, transmission capacity, clinical symptoms, surveillance, virology, historical EVD outbreaks and response, international support for Ebola outbreak response, U.S. DoD support, medical countermeasures supporting outbreak response, remaining gaps to include policy limitations, regional instability, climate change, migration, and urbanization, public health education and infrastructure, and virus persistence and public awareness.

CONCLUSIONS

The health and societal impacts of EVD on Africa has been far-reaching, with about 35,000 cases and over 15,000 deaths, with small numbers of cases spreading globally. However, the history of combatting EVD reveals that there is considerable hope for African nations to quickly and successfully respond to Ebola outbreaks, through use of endemic resources including Africa CDC and African Partner Outbreak Response Alliance and the U.S. Africa Command with greater DoD reachback. Although there remains much to be learned about the Ebola virus and EVD including whether the potential for novel strains to become deadly emerging infections, invaluable vaccines, antivirals, and public health measures are now part of the resources that can be used to combat this disease.

Public health intervention amidst conflict: Violence, politics, and knowledge frames in the 2018-20 Ebola epidemic in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Research, policy, and donor interest in health systems in conflict environments has grown rapidly in recent years. The 2018-20 Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo is a critical case of healthcare militarization. The first-ever such outbreak in an active conflict zone, it grew notorious for violence against response teams, with attacks aggravating the spread of disease. However, while medical responders observed physical attacks, the causes of the violence remained largely unknown. Drawing on interviews and participant observation, we contribute civilian vantages of the way health intervention grew militarized, or associated with conflict. The argument builds in two core steps. A first reconstructs civilian experiences of conflict prior to Ebola to trace how the response took on a political meaning. We find that relationships linking state forces with the health response inadvertently tethered Ebola to what civilians perceived as security threats and that by repeating government statements about conflict, response teams unintentionally endorsed a version of the truth that silenced local voices. A second step addresses a central paradox: residents communicated these concerns directly, repeatedly, and via official response channels, yet healthcare teams failed to apply these insights. We locate this gap in the knowledge structures, or frames, accompanying intervention. Medical emergencies in warzones operate with dual sets of frames casting conflict players as "non-state" and public health resistance as "ignorance." Both frames intersect in ways that amplify invisibilities in each, clouding understandings of the nature of conflict and humanitarians' role in it. We suggest this places intervention teams at heightened risk of mis-stepping on political fault lines-and not understanding why. The study advances work on community engagement by showing that instead of simply providing scientific knowledge, effective engagement requires adjusting socio-political lenses within the response. It contributes to studies on health intervention, humanitarian emergencies, and the limits of medical neutrality.

The impact of conflict on infectious disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Conflict situations, armed or not, have been associated with emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. This review aims to identify the pathways through which infectious diseases emerge within conflict situations and to outline appropriate infectious disease preparedness and response strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed representing published evidence from January 2000 to October 2023. Ovid Medline and Embase were utilised to obtain literature on infectious diseases in any conflict settings. The systematic review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis). No geographical restrictions were imposed.

FINDINGS

Our review identified 51 studies covering AIDS, Hepatitis B, Tuberculosis, Cholera, Coronavirus 2, Ebola, Poliomyelitis, Malaria, Leishmaniasis, Measles, Diphtheria, Dengue and Acute Bacterial Meningitis within conflict settings in Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Africa since October 2023. Key factors contributing to disease emergence and transmission in conflict situations included population displacement, destruction of vital infrastructure, reduction in functioning healthcare systems and healthcare personnel, disruption of disease control programmes (including reduced surveillance, diagnostic delays, and interrupted vaccinations), reduced access by healthcare providers to populations within areas of active conflict, increased population vulnerability due to limited access to healthcare services, and disruptions in the supply chain of safe water, food, and medication. To mitigate these infectious disease risks reported preparedness and response strategies included both disease-specific intervention strategies as well as broader concepts such as the education of conflict-affected populations through infectious disease awareness programmes, investing in and enabling health care in locations with displaced populations, intensifying immunisation campaigns, and ensuring political commitment and intersectoral collaborations between governments and international organisations.

CONCLUSION

Conflict plays a direct and indirect role in the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases. The findings from this review can assist decision-makers in the development of evidence-based preparedness and response strategies for the timely and effective containment of infectious disease outbreaks in conflict zones and amongst conflict-driven displaced populations.

FUNDING

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control under specific contract No. 22 ECD.13,154 within Framework contract ECDC/2019/001 Lot 1B.

Evaluating the risk of conflict on recent Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically reported the largest and the most recent Ebola virus outbreaks. Understanding if conflict played a role in these outbreaks may help in identifying key risks factors to improve disease control.

METHODS

We used data from a range of publicly available data sources for both Ebola virus cases and conflict events from 2018 to 2021 in Guinea and the DRC. We fitted these data to conditional logistic regression models using the Self-Controlled Case Series methodology to evaluate the magnitude in which conflict increased the risk of reported Ebola virus cases in terms of incidence rate ratio. We re-ran the analysis sub-nationally, by conflict sub-event type and tested any lagged effects.

RESULTS

Conflict was significantly associated with an increased risk of reported Ebola virus cases in both the DRC and Guinea in recent outbreaks. The effect was of a similar magnitude at 1.88- and 1.98-times increased risk for the DRC and Guinea, respectively. The greatest effects (often higher than the national values) were found in many conflict prone areas and during protest/riot-related conflict events. Conflict was influential in terms of Ebola virus risk from 1 week following the event and remained important by 10 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Extra vigilance is needed following protests and riot-related conflict events in terms of Ebola virus transmission. These events are highly disruptive, in terms of access to transportation and healthcare and are often in urban areas with high population densities. Additional public health messaging around these types of conflict events, relating to the risks and clinical symptoms may be helpful in reducing transmission. Future work should aim to further understand and quantify conflict severity and intensity, to evaluate dose-response relationships in terms of disease risk.

Impact of wars and natural disasters on emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases (REIDs) constitute significant health problems and are becoming of major importance. Up to 75% of EIDs and REIDs have zoonotic origin. Several factors such as the destruction of natural habitats leading humans and animals to live in close proximity, ecological changes due to natural disasters, population migration resulting from war or conflict, interruption or decrease in disease prevention programs, and insufficient vector control applications and sanitation are involved in disease emergence and distribution. War and natural disasters have a great impact on the emergence/re-emergence of diseases in the population. According to a World Bank estimation, two billion people are living in poverty and fragility situations. Wars destroy health systems and infrastructure, curtail existing disease control programs, and cause population movement leading to an increase in exposure to health risks and favor the emergence of infectious diseases. A total of 432 catastrophic cases associated with natural disasters were recorded globally in 2021. Natural disasters increase the risk of EID and REID outbreaks by damaging infrastructure and leading to displacement of populations. A Generic National Action Plan covering risk assessment, mechanism for action, determination of roles and responsibilities of each sector, the establishment of a coordination mechanism, etc. should be developed.

Cholera past and future in Nigeria: Are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's 2030 targets achievable?

BACKGROUND

Understanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Using cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several environmental and social covariates were considered in the model, using random forest variable importance and correlation clustering. Future scenarios were created (based on varying degrees of socioeconomic development and emission reductions) and used to project future cholera transmission, nationally and sub-nationally to 2070. The projections suggest that significant reductions in cholera cases could be achieved by 2030, particularly in the more developed southern states, but increases in cases remain a possibility. Meeting the 2030 target, nationally, currently looks unlikely and we propose a new 2050 target focusing on reducing regional inequities, while still advocating for cholera elimination being achieved as soon as possible.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

The 2030 targets could potentially be reached by 2030 in some parts of Nigeria, but more effort is needed to reach these targets at a national level, particularly through access and incentives to cholera testing, sanitation expansion, poverty alleviation and urban planning. The results highlight the importance of and how modelling studies can be used to inform cholera policy and the potential for this to be applied in other contexts.

Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has displaced more than a quarter of the population. Assessing disease burdens among displaced people is instrumental in informing global public health and humanitarian aid efforts. We estimated the disease burden in Ukrainians displaced both within Ukraine and to other countries by combining a spatiotemporal model of forcible displacement with age- and gender-specific estimates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, cancer, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in each of Ukraine's 629 raions (i.e., districts). Among displaced Ukrainians as of May 13, we estimated that more than 2.63 million have CVDs, at least 615,000 have diabetes, and over 98,500 have cancer. In addition, more than 86,000 forcibly displaced individuals are living with HIV, and approximately 13,500 have TB. We estimated that the disease prevalence among refugees was lower than the national disease prevalence before the invasion. Accounting for internal displacement and healthcare facilities impacted by the conflict, we estimated that the number of people per hospital has increased by more than two-fold in some areas. As regional healthcare systems come under increasing strain, these estimates can inform the allocation of critical resources under shifting disease burdens.

Predicting the combined effects of case isolation, safe funeral practices, and contact tracing during Ebola virus disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND

The recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Uganda and the Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ghana reflect a persisting threat of Filoviridae to the global health community. Characteristic of Filoviridae are not just their high case fatality rates, but also that corpses are highly contagious and prone to cause infections in the absence of appropriate precautions. Vaccines against the most virulent Ebolavirus species, the Zaire ebolavirus (ZEBOV) are approved. However, there exists no approved vaccine or treatment against the Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) which causes the current outbreak of EVD. Hence, the control of the outbreak relies on case isolation, safe funeral practices, and contact tracing. So far, the effectiveness of these control measures was studied only separately by epidemiological models, while the impact of their interaction is unclear.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

To sustain decision making in public health-emergency management, we introduce a predictive model to study the interaction of case isolation, safe funeral practices, and contact tracing. The model is a complex extension of an SEIR-type model, and serves as an epidemic preparedness tool. The model considers different phases of the EVD infections, the possibility of infections being treated in isolation (if appropriately diagnosed), in hospital (if not properly diagnosed), or at home (if the infected do not present to hospital for whatever reason). It is assumed that the corpses of those who died in isolation are buried with proper safety measures, while those who die outside isolation might be buried unsafely, such that transmission can occur during the funeral. Furthermore, the contacts of individuals in isolation will be traced. Based on parameter estimates from the scientific literature, the model suggests that proper diagnosis and hence isolation of cases has the highest impact in reducing the size of the outbreak. However, the combination of case isolation and safe funeral practices alone are insufficient to fully contain the epidemic under plausible parameters. This changes if these measures are combined with contact tracing. In addition, shortening the time to successfully trace back contacts contribute substantially to contain the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of an approved vaccine and treatment, EVD management by proper and fast diagnostics in combination with epidemic awareness are fundamental. Awareness will particularly facilitate contact tracing and safe funeral practices. Moreover, proper and fast diagnostics are a major determinant of case isolation. The model introduced here is not just applicable to EVD, but also to other viral hemorrhagic fevers such as the MVD or the Lassa fever.

Comparison of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes using archival medical records before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo: a facility-based, retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little research has been conducted on the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on either birth outcomes or the ability of archival medical records to accurately capture these outcomes. Our study objective is thus to compare the prevalence of preterm birth, stillbirth, low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), congenital microcephaly, and neonatal bloodstream infection (NBSI) before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

METHODS

We conducted a facility-based retrospective cohort study in which identified cases of birth outcomes were tabulated at initial screening and subcategorized according to level of diagnostic certainty using Global Alignment of Immunization Safety Assessment in pregnancy (GAIA) definitions. Documentation of any birth complications, delivery type, and maternal vaccination history were also evaluated. The prevalence of each birth outcome was compared in the pre-COVID-19 (i.e., July 2019 to February 2020) and intra-COVID-19 (i.e., March to August 2020) periods via two-sample z-test for equality of proportions.

RESULTS

In total, 14,300 birth records were abstracted. Adverse birth outcomes were identified among 22.0% and 14.3% of pregnancies in the pre-COVID-19 and intra-COVID-19 periods, respectively. For stillbirth, LBW, SGA, microcephaly, and NBSI, prevalence estimates were similar across study periods. However, the prevalence of preterm birth in the intra-COVID-19 period was significantly lower than that reported during the pre-COVID-19 period (8.6% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, the level of diagnostic certainty declined slightly across all outcomes investigated from the pre-COVID-19 to the intra-COVID-19 period. Nonetheless, diagnostic certainty was especially low for certain outcomes (i.e., stillbirth and NBSI) regardless of period; still, other outcomes, such as preterm birth and LBW, had moderate to high levels of diagnostic certainty. Results were mostly consistent when the analysis was focused on the facilities designated for COVID-19 care.

CONCLUSION

This study succeeded in providing prevalence estimates for key adverse birth outcomes using GAIA criteria during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kinshasa, DRC. Furthermore, our study adds crucial real-world data to the literature surrounding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and neonatal services and outcomes in Africa.

Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare.

Conflict, epidemic and faith communities: church-state relations during the fight against Covid-19 in north-eastern DR Congo

BACKGROUND

Understanding and improving access to essential services in (post)-conflict settings requires paying particular attention to the actors who occupy the space left 'empty' by weak or deficient State institutions. Religious institutions often play a fundamental role among these actors and typically benefit from high trust capital, a rare resource in so-called 'fragile' states. While there is a literature looking at the role faith organisations play to mobilise and sensitise communities during emergencies, our focus is on a different dimension: the reconfiguration of the relationship between religion and health authorities impelled by health crises.

METHODS

We analyse observations, interviews, and focus group discussions with 21 leaders from eight different religious groups in Ituri province in 2020-2021.

RESULTS

Faith institutions handled the Covid-19 lockdown period by using and redeploying structures at the grassroots level but also by responding to health authorities' call for support. New actors usually not associated with the health system, such as revivalist churches, became involved. The interviewed religious leaders, especially those whose congregations were not previously involved in healthcare provision, felt that they were doing a favour to the State and the health authorities by engaging in community-level awareness-raising, but also, crucially, by 'depoliticising' Covid-19 through their public commitment against Covid-19 and work with the authorities in a context where the public response to epidemics has been highly contentious in recent years (particularly during the Ebola outbreak). The closure of places of worship during the lockdown shocked all faith leaders but, ultimately, most were inclined to follow and support health authorities. Such experience was, however, often one of frustration and of feeling unheard.

CONCLUSION

In the short run, depoliticization may help address health emergencies, but in the longer run and in the absence of a credible space for discussion, it may affect the constructive criticism of health system responses and health system strengthening. The faith leaders are putting forward the desire for a relationship that is not just subordination of the religious to the imperatives of health care but a dialogue that allows the experiences of the faithful in conflict zones to be brought to the fore.

Analysis of War and Conflict Effect on the Transmission Dynamics of the Tenth Ebola Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The tenth Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) that occurred from 2018 to 2020 was exacerbated by long-lasting conflicts and war in the region. We propose a deterministic model to investigate the impact of such disruptive events on the transmission dynamics of the Ebola virus disease. It is an extension of the classical susceptible-infectious-recovered model, enriched by an additional class of contaminated environment to account for indirect transmission as well as two classes of hospitalized individuals and patients who escape from the healthcare facility due to violence and attacks perpetrated by armed groups, rebels, etc. The model is formulated using two patches, namely Patch 1 consisting of the three affected eastern provinces in DRC and Patch 2, a war- and conflict-free area consisting of the go-to neighboring provinces for escaped patients. We introduce two key parameters, the escaping rate from hospitals and the destruction of hospitals, in terms of which the effect of war and conflicts is measured. The model is fitted and parameterized using the cumulative mortality data from the region. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed and found to have a complex expression due to the high nonlinearity of the model. By using, not a Lyapunov function, but a decomposition theorem in Castillo-Chavez et al.(in Castillo-Chavez et al. (eds) Mathematical approaches for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases: an introduction, vol 126. Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin, 2002), it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text] and unstable when [Formula: see text]. A nonstandard finite difference scheme which replicates the dynamics of the continuous model is designed. In particular, a discrete counterpart of the above-mentioned theorem on the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. Numerical experiments are presented to support the theoretical results. When [Formula: see text], the numerical simulations suggest that there exists for the full model a unique globally asymptotically stable interior endemic equilibrium point, while it is shown theoretically and computationally that the model possesses at least a one Patch 1 and a one Patch 2 boundary equilibria (i.e., Patch 2 and Patch 1 disease-free equilibrium) points, which are locally asymptotically stable. Some recommendations to tackle Ebola in a conflict zone are stated.

Scientific response to the 2021 eruption of Nyiragongo based on the implementation of a participatory monitoring system

The development of a resilient society is a major challenge for growing human population faced with abundant natural hazards. During and after the May 22, 2021 eruption of Nyiragongo, the local population was surprised and scared by the subsequent seismicity and associated surface fracturing, coupled with the alert of a possible new eruptive vent opening in Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo) and/or Gisenyi (Rwanda). The creation of a toll-free phone number enabled the population to record fractures and gas/thermal anomalies affecting the area. Such work was fundamental in enabling scientists and authorities to assess the associated risks. Crucially, gas data showed that the degassing through fractures did not represent direct transfer of magmatic volatiles but was more likely of superficial origin. Surprisingly, this participatory work revealed that the first fractures appeared several weeks before the eruption and their opening was not detected by the monitoring system. This firmly underlines the need for scientists to anchor citizen science in monitoring strategies.

Misconceptions and Rumors about Ebola Virus Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

We sought to summarize knowledge, misconceptions, beliefs, and practices about Ebola that might impede the control of Ebola outbreaks in Africa. We searched Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Google Scholar (through May 2019) for publications reporting on knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) related to Ebola in Africa. In total, 14 of 433 articles were included. Knowledge was evaluated in all 14 articles, and they all highlighted that there are misconceptions and risk behaviors during an Ebola outbreak. Some communities believed that Ebola spreads through the air, mosquito bites, malice from foreign doctors, witchcraft, and houseflies. Because patients believe that Ebola was caused by witchcraft, they sought help from traditional healers. Some people believed that Ebola could be prevented by bathing with salt or hot water. Burial practices where people touch Ebola-infected corpses were common, especially among Muslims. Discriminatory attitudes towards Ebola survivors or their families were also prevalent. Some Ebola survivors were not accepted back in their communities; the possibility of being ostracized from their neighborhoods was high and Ebola survivors had to lead a difficult social life. Most communities affected by Ebola need more comprehensive knowledge on Ebola. Efforts are needed to address misconceptions and risk behaviors surrounding Ebola for future outbreak preparedness in Africa.

Added value of an anti-Ebola serology for the management of clinically suspect Ebola virus disease patients discharged as negative in an epidemic context

Background

Survivors from Ebola virus disease (EVD) may be at the origin of EVD resurgence.

Methods

Simultaneous reactivity to at least 2 Ebola virus or Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) antigens was detected in 11 of 488 (2.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–4.0) suspected EVD patients who were discharged as negative after 2 consecutive negative tests during the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Results

After extrapolating the total number of individuals discharged as negative during the entire outbreak, we estimated a total of 1314 additional missed Ebola cases.

Conclusions

These findings emphasize the usefulness of an EBOV serology analysis and the importance of extending epidemic surveillance to clinically suspected cases who were discharged as negative.

Disparities in Health Financing Allocation among Infectious Diseases in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)-Affected Countries, 2005–2017

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks impacted the population health due to overstretched health systems and disrupted essential health services. Despite a call to achieve equal financial allocation depending on public health needs, there has been scant examination of the fairness of investment among infectious diseases. This study analyzes the extent to which equitable development assistance for health (DAH) has been provided in accordance with disease burden in EVD-affected countries. Estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 and DAH Database 1990–2019 in 2005–2017 were analyzed by disease category: vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and EVD. HIV/AIDS generally recorded higher ratios of DAH per DALYs (DAH/DALYs). Malaria and tuberculosis showed different trends by country, and VPDs generally presented lower ratios. In West Africa in 2013–2016, DAH/DALYs surged in EVD and fluctuated in HIV/AIDS and malaria. Tuberculosis and VPDs consistently recorded lower ratios. To achieve the risk reduction during and after health emergencies, optimal funding allocation between diseases based on the disease burden is warranted in the pre-emergency period, along with measurement of immediate health needs of populations in real-time during an emergency.

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.

Characteristics of the 100 largest modern zoonotic disease outbreaks

Zoonotic disease outbreaks are an important threat to human health and numerous drivers have been recognized as contributing to their increasing frequency. Identifying and quantifying relationships between drivers of zoonotic disease outbreaks and outbreak severity is critical to developing targeted zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak prevention strategies. However, quantitative studies of outbreak drivers on a global scale are lacking. Attributes of countries such as press freedom, surveillance capabilities and latitude also bias global outbreak data. To illustrate these issues, we review the characteristics of the 100 largest outbreaks in a global dataset (n = 4463 bacterial and viral zoonotic outbreaks), and compare them with 200 randomly chosen background controls. Large outbreaks tended to have more drivers than background outbreaks and were related to large-scale environmental and demographic factors such as changes in vector abundance, human population density, unusual weather conditions and water contamination. Pathogens of large outbreaks were more likely to be viral and vector-borne than background outbreaks. Overall, our case study shows that the characteristics of large zoonotic outbreaks with thousands to millions of cases differ consistently from those of more typical outbreaks. We also discuss the limitations of our work, hoping to pave the way for more comprehensive future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Responding to the 2018-2020 Ebola Virus Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Rethinking Humanitarian Approaches

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) presents a challenging context in which to respond to public health crises. Its 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak was the second largest in history. Lessons were known from the previous West African outbreak. Chief among these was the recognition that local action and involvement are key to establishing effective epidemic-response. It remains unclear whether and how this was achieved in DRC's Ebola response. Additionally, there is a lack of scholarship on how to build resilience (the ability to adapt or transform under pressure) in crisis-response. In this article, we critically review literature to examine evidence on whether and how communities were involved, trust built, and resilience strengthened through adaptation or transformation of DRC's 2018-2020 Ebola response measures. Overall, we found limited evidence that the response adapted to engage and involve local actors and institutions or respond to locally expressed concerns. When adaptations occurred, they were shaped by national and international actors rather than enabling local actors to develop locally trusted initiatives. Communities were "engaged" to understand their perceptions but were not involved in decision-making or shaping responses. Few studies documented how trust was built or analyzed power dynamics between different groups in DRC. Yet, both these elements appear to be critical in building effective, resilient responses. These failures occurred because there was no willingness by the national government or international agencies to concede decision-making power to local people. Emergency humanitarian response is entrenched in highly medicalized, military style command and control approaches which have no space for decentralizing decision-making to "non-experts". To transform humanitarian responses, international responders can no longer be regarded as "experts" who own the knowledge and control the response. To successfully tackle future humanitarian crises requires a transformation of international humanitarian and emergency response systems such that they are led, or shaped, through inclusive, equitable collaboration with local actors.

Targeting Ebola virus replication through pharmaceutical intervention

Introduction. The consistent emergence/reemergence of filoviruses into a world that previously lacked an approved pharmaceutical intervention parallels an experience repeatedly played-out for most other emerging pathogenic zoonotic viruses. Investment to preemptively develop effective and low-cost prophylactic and therapeutic interventions against viruses that have high potential for emergence and societal impact should be a priority.Areas covered. Candidate drugs can be characterized into those that interfere with cellular processes required for Ebola virus (EBOV) replication (host-directed), and those that directly target virally encoded functions (direct-acting). We discuss strategies to identify pharmaceutical interventions for EBOV infections. PubMed/Web of Science databases were searched to establish a detailed catalog of these interventions.Expert opinion. Many drug candidates show promising in vitro inhibitory activity, but experience with EBOV shows the general lack of translation to in vivo efficacy for host-directed repurposed drugs. Better translation is seen for direct-acting antivirals, in particular monoclonal antibodies. The FDA-approved monoclonal antibody treatment, Inmazeb™ is a success story that could be improved in terms of impact on EBOV-associated disease and mortality, possibly by combination with other direct-acting agents targeting distinct aspects of the viral replication cycle. Costs need to be addressed given EBOV emergence primarily in under-resourced countries.

Ebola Virus Transmission Initiated by Relapse of Systemic Ebola Virus Disease

During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo, EVD was diagnosed in a patient who had received the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine expressing a ZEBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-ZEBOV) (Merck). His treatment included an Ebola virus (EBOV)-specific monoclonal antibody (mAb114), and he recovered within 14 days. However, 6 months later, he presented again with severe EVD-like illness and EBOV viremia, and he died. We initiated epidemiologic and genomic investigations that showed that the patient had had a relapse of acute EVD that led to a transmission chain resulting in 91 cases across six health zones over 4 months. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

Climate-related migration and population health: social science-oriented dynamic simulation model

BACKGROUND

Social science models find the ecological impacts of climate change (EICC) contribute to internal migration in developing countries and, less so, international migration. Projections expect massive climate-related migration in this century. Nascent research calls to study health, migration, population, and armed conflict potential together, accounting for EICC and other factors. System science offers a way: develop a dynamic simulation model (DSM). We aim to validate the feasibility and usefulness of a pilot DSM intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and a basis for identifying model extensions to make it less simplified and more realistic.

METHODS

Studies have separately examined essential parts. Our DSM integrates their results and computes composites of health problems (HP), health care (HC), non-EICC environmental health problems (EP), and environmental health services (ES) by origin site and by immigrants and natives in a destination site, and conflict risk and intensity per area. The exogenous variables include composites of EICC, sociopolitical, economic, and other factors. We simulate the model for synthetic input values and conduct sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The simulation results refer to generic origin and destination sites anywhere on Earth. The effects' sizes are likely inaccurate from a real-world view, as our input values are synthetic. Their signs and dynamics are plausible, internally consistent, and, like the sizes, respond logically in sensitivity analyses. Climate migration may harm public health in a host area even with perfect HC/ES qualities and full access; and no HP spillovers across groups, conflict, EICC, and EP. Deviations from these conditions may worsen everyone's health. We consider adaptation options.

CONCLUSIONS

This work shows we can start developing DSMs to understand climate migration and public health by examining each case with its own inputs. Validation of our pilot model suggests we can use it as intended. We lay a path to making it more realistic for policy analysis.

Traits and risk factors of post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic review

Infectious disease outbreaks are increasingly recognised as events that exacerbate impacts or prolong recovery following disasters. Yet, our understanding of the frequency, geography, characteristics and risk factors of post-disaster disease outbreaks globally is lacking. This limits the extent to which disease outbreak risks can be prepared for, monitored and responded to following disasters. Here, we conducted a global systematic review of post-disaster outbreaks and found that outbreaks linked to conflicts and hydrological events were most frequently reported, and most often caused by bacterial and water-borne agents. Lack of adequate WASH facilities and poor housing were commonly reported risk factors. Displacement, through infrastructure damage, can lead to risk cascades for disease outbreaks; however, displacement can also be an opportunity to remove people from danger and ultimately protect health. The results shed new light on post-disaster disease outbreaks and their risks. Understanding these risk factors and cascades, could help improve future region-specific disaster risk reduction.

The Impact of Different Types of Violence on Ebola Virus Transmission During the 2018-2020 Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

Our understanding of the different effects of targeted versus nontargeted violence on Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is limited.

METHODS

We used time-series data of case counts to compare individuals in Ebola-affected health zones in DRC, April 2018-August 2019. Exposure was number of violent events per health zone, categorized into Ebola-targeted or Ebola-untargeted, and into civilian-induced, (para)military/political, or protests. Outcome was estimated daily reproduction number (Rt) by health zone. We fit linear time-series regression to model the relationship.

RESULTS

Average Rt was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.11). A mean of 2.92 violent events resulted in cumulative absolute increase in Rt of 0.10 (95% CI, .05-.15). More violent events increased EBOV transmission (P = .03). Considering violent events in the 95th percentile over a 21-day interval and its relative impact on Rt, Ebola-targeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.30-1.74), while civilian-induced events corresponded to Rt of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.21-1.35). Untargeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02-1.35); among these, militia/political or ville morte events increased transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Ebola-targeted violence, primarily driven by civilian-induced events, had the largest impact on EBOV transmission.

The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control

Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional R_t —the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional R_t, and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.

Local perspectives on Ebola during its tenth outbreak in DR Congo: A nationwide qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) struggled to end the tenth outbreak of Ebola virus disease (Ebola), which appeared in North Kivu in 2018. It was reported that rumors were hampering the response effort. We sought to identify any rumors that could have influenced outbreak containment and affected prevention in unaffected areas of DR Congo.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study in DR Congo over a period of 2 months (from August 1 to September 30, 2019) using in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs). The participants were recruited from five regional blocks using purposeful sampling. Both areas currently undergoing outbreaks and presently unaffected areas were included. We collected participants' opinions, views, and beliefs about the Ebola virus. The IDIs (n = 60) were performed with key influencers (schoolteachers, religious and political leaders/analysts, and Ebola-frontline workers), following a semi-structured interview guide. FGDs (n = 10) were conducted with community members. Interviews were recorded with a digital voice recorder and simultaneous note-taking. Participant responses were categorized in terms of their themes and subthemes.

RESULTS

We identified 3 high-level themes and 15 subthemes (given here in parentheses): (1) inadequate knowledge of the origin or cause of Ebola (belief in a metaphysical origin, insufficient awareness of Ebola transmission via an infected corpse, interpretation of disease as God's punishment, belief in nosocomial Ebola, poor hygiene, and bathing in the Congo River). Ebola was interpreted as (2) a plot by multinational corporations (fears of genocide, Ebola understood as a biological weapon, concerns over organ trafficking, and Ebola was taken to be the result of business actions). Finally Ebola was rumored to be subject to (3) politicization (political authorities seen as ambivalent, exclusion of some community leaders from response efforts, distrust of political authorities, and distrust in the healthcare system).

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the skepticism against Ebola countermeasures, it is critical to understand widespread beliefs about the disease to implement actions that will be effective, including integrating response with the unmet needs of the population.

The cost of insecurity: from flare-up to control of a major Ebola virus disease hotspot during the outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is facing unprecedented levels of insecurity and violence. We evaluate the likely impact in terms of added transmissibility and cases of major security incidents in the Butembo coordination hub. We also show that despite this additional burden, an adapted response strategy involving enlarged ring vaccination around clusters of cases and enhanced community engagement managed to bring this main hotspot under control.

Multi-model forecasts of the ongoing Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, March-October 2019

The 2018–2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the first to occur in an armed conflict zone. The resulting impact on population movement, treatment centres and surveillance has created an unprecedented challenge for real-time epidemic forecasting. Most standard mathematical models cannot capture the observed incidence trajectory when it deviates from a traditional epidemic logistic curve. We fit seven dynamic models of increasing complexity to the incidence data published in the World Health Organization Situation Reports, after adjusting for reporting delays. These models include a simple logistic model, a Richards model, an endemic Richards model, a double logistic growth model, a multi-model approach and two sub-epidemic models. We analyse model fit to the data and compare real-time forecasts throughout the ongoing epidemic across 29 weeks from 11 March to 23 September 2019. We observe that the modest extensions presented allow for capturing a wide range of epidemic behaviour. The multi-model approach yields the most reliable forecasts on average for this application, and the presented extensions improve model flexibility and forecasting accuracy, even in the context of limited epidemiological data.

Spray dried VSV-vectored vaccine is thermally stable and immunologically active in vivo

Effective vaccine delivery and coverage to rural and resource-poor countries is hindered by the dependence on cold chain storage. As such, developments of cold chain-free technologies are highly sought. Although spray dried adenoviral vectors have shown long term stability at ambient temperatures and relatively low humidity, it remains to be determined whether similar excipient formulations are applicable to other viral vectors. To address this, we have spray dried vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV)-vectors with a panel of well-characterized sugar excipients to determine the optimal formulation for vector stabilization. Upon reconstitution, we show that trehalose conferred superior stability of VSV both in vitro and in vivo. Importantly, following cold chain-free storage at elevated temperatures at 37 °C for 15 days, we show that a VSV-vectored vaccine retains its in vivo immunogenicity, whereas a liquid control completely lost its immune-stimulating ability. Our results provide foundational evidence that spray drying with properly tested excipients can stabilize viral vectors such as VSV, allowing them to be stored long-term at elevated temperatures without dependency on cold chain conditions.

Unique challenges to control the spread of COVID-19 in the Middle East

The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading at unprecedented pace among the Middle East and neighboring countries. This region is geographically, economically, politically, culturally and religiously a very sensitive area, which impose unique challenges for effective control of this epidemic. These challenges include compromised healthcare systems, prolonged regional conflicts and humanitarian crises, suboptimal levels of transparency and cooperation, and frequent religious gatherings. These factors are interrelated and collectively determine the response to the pandemic in this region. Here, we in-depth emphasize these challenges and take a glimpse of possible solutions towards mitigating the spread of COVID-19.

The Importance of Developing Rigorous Social Science Methods for Community Engagement and Behavior Change During Outbreak Response

Despite growing international attention, the anthropological and socio-behavioral elements of epidemics continue to be understudied and under resourced and lag behind the traditional outbreak response infrastructure. As seen in the current 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the importance of socio-behavioral elements in understanding transmission and facilitating control of many outbreak-prone pathogens, this is problematic. Beyond the recent strengthening of global outbreak response capacities and global health security measures, a greater focus on the socio-behavioral components of outbreak response is required. We add to the current discussion by briefly highlighting the importance of socio-behavior in the Ebola virus disease (EVD) response, and describe vital areas of future development, including methods for community engagement and validated frameworks for behavioral modeling and change in outbreak settings.

Recommendations for the COVID-19 Response at the National Level Based on Lessons Learned from the Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The tenth outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was declared 8 days after the end of the ninth EVD outbreak, in the Equateur Province on August 1, 2018. With a total of 3,461 confirmed and probable cases, the North Kivu outbreak was the second largest outbreak after that in West Africa in 2014–2016, and the largest observed in the DRC. This outbreak was difficult to control because of multiple challenges, including armed conflict, population displacement, movement of contacts, community mistrust, and high population density. It took more than 21 months to control the outbreak, with critical innovations and systems put into place. We describe systems that were put into place during the EVD response in the DRC that can be leveraged for the response to the current COVID-19 global pandemic.

Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019

BACKGROUND

The 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data.

METHODS

We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level.

FINDINGS

The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05-0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones (p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019.

CONCLUSION

We characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. Such assessment is important to understand if and how such conflict variables could be used to inform the outbreak response. We found that while these variables can help characterize long-term challenges and susceptibilities of the different regions they provide little insight on the short-term dynamics of EVD transmission.

What did we learn from preparing for cross-border transmission of Ebola virus disease into a complex humanitarian setting - The Republic of South Sudan?

Background

Following the West Africa Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak (2013–2016), WHO developed a preparedness checklist for its member states. This checklist is currently being applied for the first time on a large and systematic scale to prepare for the cross border importation of the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo hence the need to document the lessons learnt from this experience. This is more pertinent considering the complex humanitarian context and weak health system under which some of the countries such as the Republic of South Sudan are implementing their EVD preparedness interventions.

Main text

We identified four main lessons from the ongoing EVD preparedness efforts in the Republic South Sudan. First, EVD preparedness is possible in complex humanitarian settings such as the Republic of South Sudan by using a longer-term health system strengthening approach. Second, the Republic of South Sudan is at risk of both domestic and cross border transmission of EVD and several other infectious disease outbreaks hence the need for an integrated and sustainable approach to outbreak preparedness in the country. Third, a phased and well-prioritized approach is required for EVD preparedness in complex humanitarian settings given the costs associated with preparedness and the difficulties in the accurate prediction of outbreaks in such settings. Fourth, EVD preparedness in complex humanitarian settings is a massive undertaking that requires effective and decentralized coordination.

Conclusion

Despite a very challenging context, the Republic of South Sudan made significant progress in its EVD preparedness drive demonstrating that it is possible to rapidly scale up preparedness efforts in complex humanitarian contexts if appropriate and context-specific approaches are used. Further research, systematic reviews and evaluation of the ongoing preparedness efforts are required to ensure comprehensive documentation and application of the lessons learnt for future EVD outbreak preparedness and response efforts.

The Ebola virus glycoprotein and its immune responses across multiple vaccine platforms

Introduction: For over 40 years, ebolaviruses have been responsible for sporadic outbreaks of severe and often fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates across western and central Africa. In December 2013, an unprecedented Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic began in West Africa and resulted in the largest outbreak to date. The past and current epidemics in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has focused attention on the potential vaccine platforms developed over the past 20 years.Areas covered: This review summarizes the extraordinary progress using a variety of vaccination platforms including DNA, subunit, and several viral vector approaches, replicating and non-replicating, incorporating the primary antigen of EBOV, the glycoprotein. These vaccine constructs have shown varying degrees of protective efficacy in the 'gold-standard' nonhuman primate model for EBOV infections and were immunogenic in human clinical trials.Expert commentary: A number of these vaccine platforms have moved into phase III clinical trials over the past years and with the recent approval of the first EBOV vaccine in the European Union and the USA there is a strong potential to prevent future outbreaks/epidemics of EBOV infections on the scale of the West African epidemic.

The 2018/19 Ebola epidemic the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): epidemiology, outbreak control, and conflict

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (formerly Zaire) was the location of the first Ebola outbreak, in 1976, and since then there have been a total of ten outbreaks in different parts of the country. The current outbreak, the first in eastern DRC (North Kivu and Ituri provinces), began in July 2018, and by December 2019, there had been 3262 cases and 2232 deaths. Within weeks of the first reported cases, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the DRC Ministry of Health (MOH) initiated a major response programme, with laboratory support, international agencies providing personnel, and material resources. Unlike previous Ebola outbreaks, including the west Africa epidemic, a proven vaccine, and trial therapeutic agents have been available as part of the outbreak response. Two therapeutic agents, mAb114 and REGN-EB3, both monoclonal antibody derived, have shown case fatality rates (CFR) of around 30%, compared to the overall of 66%. Despite these positive interventions, the outbreak has continued for eighteen months. Underlying the outbreak response has been a high number of violent incidents by local militias, and community mistrust and lack of involvement that has hampered many aspects of the response programme. As a result, many cases are not reported early and not transferred to treatment centres, deaths and increased transmission occur in the community, and the response programme is reaching only a proportion of the cases. New strategies to improve community participation, and integrate the Ebola response into the existing health structure are planned to improve the programme effectiveness.