Opinion: Sustainable development must account for pandemic risk

Governance of the wildlife trade and the prevention of emerging zoonoses: a mixed methods network analysis of transnational organisations, silos, and power dynamics

INTRODUCTION

The wildlife trade is an important arena for intervention in the prevention of emerging zoonoses, and leading organisations have advocated for more collaborative, multi-sectoral approaches to governance in this area. The aim of this study is to characterise the structure and function of the network of transnational organisations that interact around the governance of wildlife trade for the prevention of emerging zoonoses, and to assess these network characteristics in terms of how they might support or undermine progress on these issues.

METHODS

This study used a mixed methods social network analysis of transnational organisations. Data were collected between May 2021 and September 2022. Participants were representatives of transnational organisations involved in the governance of wildlife trade and the prevention of emerging zoonoses. An initial seed sample of participants was purposively recruited through professional networks, and snowball sampling was used to identify additional participants. Quantitative data were collected through an online network survey. Measures of centrality (degree, closeness, and betweenness) were calculated and the network's largest clique was identified and characterised. To understand the extent to which organisations were connected across sectors, homophily by sector was assessed using exponential random graph modelling. Qualitative data were collected through semi-structured interviews. The findings from the quantitative analysis informed the focus of the qualitative analysis. Qualitative data were explored using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven participants completed the network survey and 17 key informants participated in semi-structured interviews. A total of 69 organisations were identified as belonging to this network. Organisations spanned the animal, human, and environmental health sectors, among others including trade, food and agriculture, and crime. Organisation types included inter-governmental organisations, non-governmental organisations, treaty secretariats, research institutions, and network organisations. Participants emphasised the highly inter-sectoral nature of this topic and the importance of inter-sectoral work, and connections were present across existing sectors. However, there were many barriers to effective interaction, particularly conflicting goals and agendas. Power dynamics also shaped relationships between actors, with the human health sector seen as better resourced and more influential, despite having historically lower engagement than the environmental and animal health sectors around the wildlife trade and its role in emerging zoonoses.

CONCLUSION

The network of transnational organisations focused on the governance of wildlife trade and the prevention of emerging zoonoses is highly multi-sectoral, but despite progress catalysed by the COVID-19 pandemic, barriers still exist for inter-sectoral interaction and coordination. A One Health approach to governance at this level, which has gained traction throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, was shared as a promising mechanism to support a balancing of roles and agendas in this space. However, this must involve agreement around equity, priorities, and clear goal setting to support effective action.

Paradoxical gender effects in meat consumption across cultures

Men tend to eat more meat than women, but it is not clear why. We tested three hypotheses in a cross-cultural design (20,802 individuals in 23 countries across four continents): that gender differences are (a) universal, (b) related to gender roles and thus weaker in countries with higher gender equality and human development, or (c) related to opportunities to express gender roles and thus stronger in countries with higher gender equality and human development. Across all countries, men tended to consume more meat than women. However, this difference increased significantly in countries with greater human development and gender equality. The paradoxical gender gap in meat consumption aligns with previous research that suggests greater differences in behavior across genders in contexts that are more developed and gender equal. We discuss implications for theories of culture and gender as well as practical implications for global meat reduction.

Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

Overlooked uneven progress across sustainable development goals at the global scale: Challenges and opportunities

Differences in progress across sustainable development goals (SDGs) are widespread globally; meanwhile, the rising call for prioritizing specific SDGs may exacerbate such gaps. Nevertheless, how these progress differences would influence global sustainable development has been long neglected. Here, we present the first quantitative assessment of SDGs' progress differences globally by adopting the SDGs progress evenness index. Our results highlight that the uneven progress across SDGs has been a hindrance to sustainable development because (1) it is strongly associated with many public health risks (e.g., air pollution), social inequalities (e.g., gender inequality, modern slavery, wealth gap), and a reduction in life expectancy; (2) it is also associated with deforestation and habitat loss in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, increasing the challenges related to biodiversity conservation; (3) most countries with low average SDGs performance show lower progress evenness, which further hinders their fulfillment of SDGs; and (4) many countries with high average SDGs performance also showcase stagnation or even retrogression in progress evenness, which is partly ascribed to the antagonism between climate actions and other goals. These findings highlight that while setting SDGs priorities may be more realistic under the constraints of multiple global stressors, caution must be exercised to avoid new problems from intensifying uneven progress across goals. Moreover, our study reveals that the urgent needs regarding SDGs of different regions seem complementary, emphasizing that regional collaborations (e.g., demand-oriented carbon trading between SDGs poorly performed and well-performed countries) may promote sustainable development achievements at the global scale.

Potential zoonotic spillover at the human-animal interface: A mini-review

Wildlife markets and wet wildlife markets, a type of human-animal interface, are commonly trading centers for wild-caught and captive-exotic animals as well as their products. These markets provide an ideal environment for spillovers of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). These conditions may raise serious concerns, particularly in relation to wildlife species that frequently interact with humans and domestic animals. EIDs pose a significant risk to humans, ecosystems, and public health, as demonstrated by the current COVID-19 pandemic, and other previous outbreaks, including the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. Even though it seems appears impossible to eliminate EIDs, we may still be able to minimalize the risks and take several measures to prevent new EIDs originated from animals. The aim of this study was to review several types of human-animal interfaces with a high risk of zoonotic spillover, infectious agents, and animal hosts or reservoirs. Identifying those factors will support the development of interventions and effective disease control in human-animal interface settings.

Financial influence on global risks of zoonotic emerging and re-emerging diseases: an integrative analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), such as Ebola virus disease and highly pathogenic influenza, are serious threats to human health and wellbeing worldwide. The financial sector has an important, yet often ignored, influence as owners and investors in industries that are associated with anthropogenic land-use changes in ecosystems linked to increased EIDs risks. We aimed to analyse financial influence associated with EIDs risks that are affected by anthropogenic land-use changes. We also aimed to provide empirical assessments of such influence to help guide engagements by governments, private organisations, and non-governmental organisations with the financial sector to advance a planetary health agenda.

METHODS

For this integrative analysis, we identified regions in the world where there was evidence of a connection between EIDs and anthropogenic land-use changes between Nov 9, 1999, and Oct 25, 2021, through a targeted literature review of academic literature and grey literature to identify evidence of drivers of anthropogenic land-use change and their association with commodity production in these regions. We only included publications in English that showed a connection between deforestation and the production of one or more commodities. Publications merely describing spatial or temporal land-use change dynamics (eg, a reduction of forest or an increase of palm-oil plantations) were excluded. As we were assessing financial influence on corporate activities through ownership specifically, we focused our analysis on publicly listed companies. Equity data and data about ownership structure were extracted from Orbis, a company information database. We assessed financial influence by identifying financial entities with the largest equity ownership, descriptively mapping transboundary connections between investors and publicly listed companies.

FINDINGS

227 public and private companies operating in five economic sectors (ie, production of palm oil, pulp and wood products, cocoa, soybeans, and beef) between Dec 15, 2020, and March 8, 2021, were identified. Of these 227, 99 (44%) were publicly listed companies, with 2310 unique shareholders. These publicly listed companies operated in six geographical regions, resulting in nine case-study regions. 54 (55%) companies with complete geographical information were included in the countries network. Four financial entities (ie, Dimensional, Vanguard, BlackRock, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund) each had ownership in 39 companies or more in three of the case-study regions (ie, north America, east Asia, and Europe). Four large US-based asset managers (ie, Vanguard, BlackRock, T Rowe Price, and State Street) were the largest owners of publicly listed companies in terms of total equity size, with ownership amounts for these four entities ranging from US$8 billion to $21 billion. The specific patterns of cross-national ownership depended on the region of interest; for example, financial influence on EIDs risks that was associated with commodity production in southeast and east Asia came from not only global asset managers but also Malaysian, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean financial entities. India, Brazil, the USA, Mexico, and Argentina were the countries towards which investments were most directed.

INTERPRETATION

Although commodity supply chains and financial markets are highly globalised, a small number of investors and countries could be viewed as disproportionally influential in sectors that increase EIDs risks. Such financial influence could be used to develop and implement effective policies to reduce ecological degradation and mitigate EIDs risks and their effects on population health.

FUNDING

Formas and Networks of Financial Rupture-how cascading changes in the climate and ecosystems could impact on the financial sector.

Unraveling the research trend of ecological civilization and sustainable development: A bibliometric analysis

Ecological civilization has emerged as an innovative form of civilization in China, and sustainable development has been widely recognized as a globally leading development model. These two concepts are closely related. The international English literature focuses on hot topics in the field of sustainable development such as climate change, urbanization, government management, and ecosystems, while the Chinese literature emphasizes ecological civilization concepts with Chinese characteristics, such as green development, beautiful China, and scientific development concepts. Ecological civilization and sustainable development are both responses to resource, environmental, and ecological crises and have emerged from the same historical background. The two concepts complement each other, with ecological civilization providing an ideological foundation for sustainable development, and sustainable development serving as the implementation path and concrete manifestation of ecological civilization. To deepen research on ecological civilization and sustainable development, it is necessary to build a global community with a shared future, address the major strategic needs of different countries or regions, innovate and develop interdisciplinary theories, methods, and technologies, strengthen international cooperation, provide disciplinary support for ecological civilization and sustainable development research, and provide country-specific research solutions for global and regional sustainable development.

Incorporating biodiversity responses to land use change scenarios for preventing emerging zoonotic diseases in areas of unknown host-pathogen interactions

The need to reconcile food production, the safeguarding of nature, and the protection of public health is imperative in a world of continuing global change, particularly in the context of risks of emerging zoonotic disease (EZD). In this paper, we explored potential land use strategies to reduce EZD risks using a landscape approach. We focused on strategies for cases where the dynamics of pathogen transmission among species were poorly known and the ideas of "land-use induced spillover" and "landscape immunity" could be used very broadly. We first modeled three different land-use change scenarios in a region of transition between the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspots. The land-use strategies used to build our scenarios reflected different proportions of native vegetation cover, as a proxy of habitat availability. We then evaluated the effects of the proportion of native vegetation cover on the occupancy probability of a group of mammal species and analyzed how the different land-use scenarios might affect the distribution of species in the landscape and thus the risk of EZD. We demonstrate that these approaches can help identify potential future EZD risks, and can thus be used as decision-making tools by stakeholders, with direct implications for improving both environmental and socio-economic outcomes.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence

BACKGROUND

Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin present a critical threat to global population health. As accelerating globalisation makes epidemics and pandemics more difficult to contain, there is a need for effective preventive interventions that reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover events. Public policies can play a key role in preventing spillover events. The aim of this review is to identify and describe evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover. Our approach is informed by a One Health perspective, acknowledging the inter-connectedness of human, animal and environmental health.

METHODS

In this systematic scoping review, we searched Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and reported our process in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We also searched relevant organisations' websites for evaluations published in the grey literature. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events were eligible for inclusion. We summarised key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway.

RESULTS

Our review found 95 publications evaluating 111 policies. We identified 27 unique policy options including habitat protection; trade regulations; border control and quarantine procedures; farm and market biosecurity measures; public information campaigns; and vaccination programmes, as well as multi-component programmes. These were implemented by many sectors, highlighting the cross-sectoral nature of zoonotic spillover prevention. Reports emphasised the importance of surveillance data in both guiding prevention efforts and enabling policy evaluation, as well as the importance of industry and private sector actors in implementing many of these policies. Thoughtful engagement with stakeholders ranging from subsistence hunters and farmers to industrial animal agriculture operations is key for policy success in this area.

CONCLUSION

This review outlines the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover in order to guide policy decision-making and focus research efforts. Since we found that most of the existing policy evaluations target 'downstream' determinants, additional research could focus on evaluating policies targeting 'upstream' determinants of zoonotic spillover, such as land use change, and policies impacting infection intensity and pathogen shedding in animal populations, such as those targeting animal welfare.

Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward

Humanity is now facing what may be the biggest challenge to its existence: irreversible climate change brought about by human activity. Our planet is in a state of emergency, and we only have a short window of time (7-8 years) to enact meaningful change. The goal of this systematic literature review is to summarize the peer-reviewed literature on proposed solutions to climate change in the last 20 years (2002-2022), and to propose a framework for a unified approach to solving this climate change crisis. Solutions reviewed include a transition toward use of renewable energy resources, reduced energy consumption, rethinking the global transport sector, and nature-based solutions. This review highlights one of the most important but overlooked pieces in the puzzle of solving the climate change problem - the gradual shift to a plant-based diet and global phaseout of factory (industrialized animal) farming, the most damaging and prolific form of animal agriculture. The gradual global phaseout of industrialized animal farming can be achieved by increasingly replacing animal meat and other animal products with plant-based products, ending government subsidies for animal-based meat, dairy, and eggs, and initiating taxes on such products. Failure to act will ultimately result in a scenario of irreversible climate change with widespread famine and disease, global devastation, climate refugees, and warfare. We therefore suggest an "All Life" approach, invoking the interconnectedness of all life forms on our planet. The logistics for achieving this include a global standardization of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) or similar measures and the introduction of a regulatory body for verification of such measures. These approaches will help deliver environmental and sustainability benefits for our planet far beyond an immediate reduction in global warming.

Operationalizing One Health: Environmental Solutions for Pandemic Prevention

Human pressure on the environment is increasing the frequency, diversity, and spatial extent of disease outbreaks. Despite international recognition, the interconnection between the health of the environment, animals, and humans has been historically overlooked. Past and current initiatives have often neglected prevention under the One Health preparedness cycle, largely focusing on post-spillover stages. We argue that pandemic prevention initiatives have yet to produce actionable targets and indicators, connected to overarching goals, like it has been done for biodiversity loss and climate change. We show how the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, already employed by the Convention on Biological Diversity, can be repurposed to operationalize pandemic prevention. Global responses for pandemic prevention should strive for complementarity and synergies among initiatives, better articulating prevention under One Health. Without agreed-upon goals underpinning specific targets and interventions, current global efforts are unlikely to function at the speed and scale necessary to decrease the risk of disease outbreaks that might lead to pandemics. Threats to the environment are not always abatable, but decreasing the likelihood that environmental pressure leads to pandemics, and developing strategies to mitigate these impacts, are both attainable goals.

Neglected tropical diseases risk correlates with poverty and early ecosystem destruction

BACKGROUND

Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored.

METHODS

This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007-2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared.

RESULTS

Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil. Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables. Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases, public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.

On the Frontline-A bibliometric Study on Sustainability, Development, Coronaviruses, and COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed the world's population in a state of unprecedented public health and global health vulnerability. Risks to public and global health have escalated due to COVID-19 contamination. This has raised the statistics of inequity and environmental concerns. A possible outlook entails reducing the pandemic consequences by prioritizing development, biodiversity, and adaptability, offering buffer solutions. It contains vital methods for studying, comprehending, and unraveling events-examining early responses to COVID-19, sustainability, and development, relating them with overall Coronaviruses reaction. This study maps out environmental, socioeconomic, and medical/technological issues using as statistical techniques multiple correspondence analysis and validated cluster analysis. The findings encourage rapid, long-term development policy involvement to address the pandemic. The resulting crises have highlighted the necessity for the revival of health justice policies anchored in distinctive public health ethical patterns in response to them. As a general rule, resilience and preparedness will be targeted at developing and vulnerable nations and are prone to include access to vaccines, public health care, and health investment. Our findings show the relevance of innovating on sustainable development routes and yardsticks. Sustainable global health requires crucial measures in prevention, preparation, and response. Long-term policy recommendations are needed to address pandemics and their interrelated crises and foster sustained growth and socioecological protection.

Characterizing the One Health workforce to promote interdisciplinary, multisectoral approaches in global health problem-solving

BACKGROUND

In recognition of the interconnected nature of complex challenges such as COVID-19, a collaborative, multisectoral, and transdisciplinary approach, referred to as One Health, has been employed to address sustainable development and strengthen global health security. Although significant investments have been made to build global health capacity, characterization of the One Health is absent from the literature.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We collected and analyzed perspectives from students, graduates, workers, and employers in One Health through a multinational online survey across health disciplines and sectors. Respondents were recruited through professional networks. A total of 828 respondents from 66 countries participated, representing governmental and academic institutions and students, among others; 57% were female, and 56% had completed professional health degrees. Interpersonal communication, communication with non-scientific audiences, and the ability to work in transdisciplinary teams were valued in the workplace and were considered essential competencies to build an interdisciplinary health workforce. Employers indicated difficulty recruiting workers, while workers indicated limited availability of positions. Employers identified limited funding and ill-defined career pathways as prominent challenges for retaining One Health workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Successful One Health workers use interpersonal skills and scientific knowledge to address complex health challenges. Aligning the definition of One Health will likely improve the matching of job seekers and employers. Encouraging the employment of the One Health approach for a diverse range of positions, even if they do not explicitly include "One Health" in the job title, and clarifying the expectations, roles and responsibilities within a transdisciplinary team will lead to building a stronger workforce. As One Health has evolved to address food insecurity, emerging diseases, and antimicrobial resistance, it holds promise for supporting an interdisciplinary global health workforce that can make substantial progress on Sustainable Development Goals and improve global health security for all.

An Overview of Anthropogenic Actions as Drivers for Emerging and Re-Emerging Zoonotic Diseases

Population growth and industrialization have led to a race for greater food and supply productivity. As a result, the occupation and population of forest areas, contact with wildlife and their respective parasites and vectors, the trafficking and consumption of wildlife, the pollution of water sources, and the accumulation of waste occur more frequently. Concurrently, the agricultural and livestock production for human consumption has accelerated, often in a disorderly way, leading to the deforestation of areas that are essential for the planet's climatic and ecological balance. The effects of human actions on other ecosystems such as the marine ecosystem cause equally serious damage, such as the pollution of this habitat, and the reduction of the supply of fish and other animals, causing the coastal population to move to the continent. The sum of these factors leads to an increase in the demands such as housing, basic sanitation, and medical assistance, making these populations underserved and vulnerable to the effects of global warming and to the emergence of emerging and re-emerging diseases. In this article, we discuss the anthropic actions such as climate changes, urbanization, deforestation, the trafficking and eating of wild animals, as well as unsustainable agricultural intensification which are drivers for emerging and re-emerging of zoonotic pathogens such as viral (Ebola virus, hantaviruses, Hendravirus, Nipah virus, rabies, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease-2), bacterial (leptospirosis, Lyme borreliosis, and tuberculosis), parasitic (leishmaniasis) and fungal pathogens, which pose a substantial threat to the global community. Finally, we shed light on the urgent demand for the implementation of the One Health concept as a collaborative global approach to raise awareness and educate people about the science behind and the battle against zoonotic pathogens to mitigate the threat for both humans and animals.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: protocol for a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence

INTRODUCTION

The increasing incidence of pathogen transmission from animals to humans (zoonotic spillover events) has been attributed to behavioural practices and ecological and socioeconomic change. As these events sometimes involve pathogens with epidemic or pandemic potential, they pose a serious threat to population health. Public policies may play a key role in preventing these events. The aim of this review is to identify evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover, examining approaches taken to evaluation, choice of outcomes measures and evidence of effectiveness. Our approach to identifying and analysing this literature will be informed by a One Health lens, acknowledging the interconnectedness of human, animal and environmental health.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic scoping review methodology will be used. To identify articles, we will search Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We will screen titles and abstracts and extract data according to published guidelines for scoping reviews. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events will be eligible for inclusion. We will summarise key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway and outlining the range of policies, approaches to evaluation and outcome measures. Review findings will provide a useful reference for researchers and practitioners, outlining the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval is not required, because the study does not involve primary data collection. The findings of this study will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication, presentations and summaries for key stakeholders.

Risk assessment and preventive health behaviours toward COVID-19 amongst bushmeat handlers in Nigerian wildlife markets: Drivers and One Health challenge

Over 70% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic and 72% of them have wildlife reservoirs with consequent global health impacts. Both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 emerged certainly through wildlife market routes. We assessed wildlife handlers' zoonotic risk perceptions and preventive health behaviour measures toward COVID-19 during pandemic waves, and its drivers at wildlife markets using Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs. A cross-sectional study was conducted at purposively selected wildlife markets in Nigeria between November 2020 and October 2021. Descriptive, univariate, and multivariable logistic regressions analyses were performed at 95% confidence interval. Of the 600 targeted handlers in 97 wildlife markets, 97.2% (n = 583) participated. Consumers were the majority (65.3%), followed by hunters (18.4) and vendors (16.3%). Only 10.3% hunters, 24.3% vendors and 21.0% consumers associated COVID-19 with high zoonotic risk. Also, only few handlers practiced social/physical distancing at markets. Avoidance of handshaking or hugging and vaccination was significantly (p = 0.001) practiced by few handlers as preventive health behaviours at the markets. All the socio-demographic variables were significantly (p<0.05) associated with their knowledge, risk perceptions, and practice of preventive health behaviours toward COVID-19 at univariate analysis. Poor markets sanitation, hygiene, and biosecurity (OR=3.35, 95% CI: 2.33, 4.82); and poor butchering practices and exchange of wildlife species between shops [(OR=1.87; 95% CI: 1.34, 2.60) and (OR=2.03; 95% CI: 1.43, 2.88), respectively] were more likely to significantly influence COVID-19 emergence and spread at the markets. To tackle the highlighted gaps, collaborations between the public health, anthropologists, and veterinary and wildlife authorities through the One Health approach are advocated to intensify awareness and health education programmes that will improve perceptions and behaviours toward the disease and other emerging diseases control and prevention.

Social Factors as Major Determinants of Rural Development Variation for Predicting Epidemic Vulnerability: A Lesson for the Future

There have been changes in social attitudes in recent years. These changes have been a consequence of a new societal view of the common good, which manifests itself in social responsibility for a clean and healthy environment. The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted the socio-spatial variation across regions and countries. The epidemic necessitated restrictive measures by state authorities. In the initial period in many countries, the actions of the authorities were identical throughout the country. This was mainly due to a lack of information about the differentiation of areas in relation to the epidemic risk. The aim of the research was to present a model for classifying rural areas taking into account vulnerability to epidemic threats. The model takes into account demographic, social, economic and spatial-environmental development factors. A total of 33 indicators based on public statistics that can be used to determine the area's vulnerability to epidemic threats were identified. The study showed that for Poland, 11 indicators are statistically significant to the developed classification model. The study found that social factors were vital in determining an area's vulnerability to epidemic threats. We include factors such as average number of persons per one apartment, village centers (number), events (number), number of people per facility (cultural center, community center, club, community hall), residents of nursing homes per 1000 inhabitants, and the number of children in pre-school education establishments per 1000 children aged 3-5 years. The research area was rural areas in Poland. The results of the classification and the methods used should be made available as a resource for crisis management. This will enable a better response to threats from other epidemics in the future, and will influence the remodeling of the environment and social behavior to reduce risks at this risk, which has a significant impact on sustainable development in rural areas.

Lighting Up Agricultural Sustainability in the New Era through Nanozymology: An Overview of Classifications and Their Agricultural Applications

With the concept of sustainable agriculture receiving increasing attention from humankind, nanozymes, nanomaterials with enzyme-like activity but higher environmental endurance and longer-term stability than natural enzymes, have enabled agricultural technologies to be reformative, economic, and portable. Benefiting from their multiple catalytic activities and renewable nanocharacteristics, nanozymes can shine in agricultural scenarios using enzyme engineering and nanoscience, acting as sustainable toolboxes to improve agricultural production and reduce the risk to agricultural systems. Herein, we comprehensively discuss the classifications of nanozymes applied in current agriculture, including peroxidase-like, oxidase-like, catalase-like, superoxide dismutase-like, and laccase-like nanozymes, as well as their biocatalytic mechanisms. Especially, different applications of nanozymes in agriculture are deeply reviewed, covering crop protection and nutrition, agroenvironmental remediation and monitoring, and agroproduct quality monitoring. Finally, the challenges faced by nanozymes in agricultural applications are proposed, and we expect that our review can further enhance agricultural sustainability through nanozymology.

Fear of COVID-19 reinforces climate change beliefs. Evidence from 28 European countries

The long-term nature of climate policy measures requires stable social legitimacy, which other types of crises may jeopardize. This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 fear on climate change beliefs based on an autumn 2020 population survey in the Member States of the European Union and the United Kingdom. The results show that deep COVID-19 concerns increase climate change concerns, awareness, and perceived negative impacts of climate change. These effects are more robust among the lower educated Europeans. On the country level, strict governmental measures are also linked to deep climate change concerns. In contrast to the experience following the 2008 recession, the findings show that a secondary crisis can positively impact climate attitudes, which is a promising result for policy actions.

Leveraging the therapeutic, biological, and self-assembling potential of peptides for the treatment of viral infections

Peptides and peptide-based materials have an increasing role in the treatment of viral infections through their use as active pharmaceutical ingredients, targeting moieties, excipients, carriers, or structural components in drug delivery systems. The discovery of peptide-based therapeutic compounds, coupled with the development of new stabilization and formulation strategies, has led to a resurgence of antiviral peptide therapeutics over the past two decades. The ability of peptides to bind cell receptors and to facilitate membrane penetration and subsequent intracellular trafficking enables their use in various antiviral systems for improved targeting efficiency and treatment efficacy. Importantly, the self-assembly of peptides into well-defined nanostructures provides a vast library of discrete constructs and supramolecular biomaterials for systemic and local delivery of antiviral agents. We review here the recent progress in exploiting the therapeutic, biological, and self-assembling potential of peptides, peptide conjugates, and their supramolecular assemblies in treating human viral infections, with an emphasis on the treatment strategies for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV).

A socio-ecological critique on India's local health traditions amidst rising incidence of global pandemics

Introduction

The COVID-19 crisis has exposed inadequacy to deal with such health emergencies. The state of healthcare facilities in India is shambolic, which is further exacerbated by the exclusivity of modern health systems. The authors argue for vertical and horizontal expansion of the existing system to include traditional medicine systems, in favor of an urgently needed holistic and more inclusive healthcare system.

Methods

Secondary data were collected from free online resources, including preprints, reprints and databases, J-gate Plus, PubMed and Web of Science, using keywords such as, “folk medicine”, “folk medicine AND India”, “traditional Indian medicines”, “indigenous Indian medicines AND India”, “Indian ethnomedicines”, “Indian AND folk AND medicine”, “indigenous Indian medicine”.

Results and conclusions

Insufficiently robust public healthcare infrastructure, lack of enough qualified health professionals, and poor use of its traditional medicinal systems, are limiting the access of basic healthcare facilities to a large section of the Indian population. Despite vehement opposition and criticism from modern health system practitioners, indigenous and local healing traditions do offer benefits and share a common global goal of health and healing. The objectives of Universal Health Coverage and Health for All as enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) cannot be achieved without their involvement, especially in remote and economically disadvantaged regions of the country. Even a sub-optimal utilization of its biological and human resources and related traditional knowledge can not only profoundly change the health, but also the economic landscape of India. Here, we have nuanced the constrains posed by the emerging health challenges, status and prospects of the great and little traditions of the Indian System of Medicines in fulfilling the urgent healthcare needs of the country. The authors based their arguments on the available evidence, rather than emotive ideas or, as a fan of Indian traditional medicines, and suggest for the purposeful inclusion of traditional health systems and practitioners more actively in India’s health care delivery systems. The country must not squander the opportunities offered by its traditional medicinal systems.

Understanding the relative risks of zoonosis emergence under contrasting approaches to meeting livestock product demand

It has been argued that intensive livestock farming increases the risk of pandemics of zoonotic origin because of long-distance livestock movements, high livestock densities, poor animal health and welfare, low disease resistance and low genetic diversity. However, data on many of these factors are limited, and analyses to date typically ignore how land use affects emerging infectious disease (EID) risks, and how these risks might vary across systems with different yields (production per unit area). Extensive, lower yielding practices typically involve larger livestock populations, poorer biosecurity, more workers and more area under farming, resulting in different, but not necessarily lower, EID risks than higher yielding systems producing the same amount of food. To move this discussion forward, we review the evidence for each of the factors that potentially link livestock production practices to EID risk. We explore how each factor might vary with yield and consider how overall risks might differ across a mix of production systems chosen to reflect in broad terms the current livestock sector at a global level and in hypothetical low- and high-yield systems matched by overall level of production. We identify significant knowledge gaps for all potential risk factors and argue these shortfalls in understanding mean we cannot currently determine whether lower or higher yielding systems would better limit the risk of future pandemics.

An Examination of the Intersection of Climate Change, the Physician Specialty Workforce, and Graduate Medical Education in the U.S

Issue: As U.S. healthcare systems plan for future physician workforce needs, the systemic impacts of climate change, a worldwide environmental and health crisis, have not been factored in. The current focus on increasing the number of trained physicians and optimizing efficiencies in healthcare delivery may be insufficient. Graduate medical education (GME) priorities and training should be considered in order to prepare a climate-educated physician workforce. Evidence: We used a holistic lens to explore the available literature regarding the intersection of future physician workforce needs, GME program priorities, and resident education within the larger context of climate change. Our interinstitutional, transdisciplinary team brought perspectives from their own fields, including climate science, climate and health research, and medical education to provide recommendations for building a climate-educated physician workforce. Implications: Acknowledging and preparing for the effects of climate change on the physician workforce will require identification of workforce gaps, changes to GME program priorities, and education of trainees on the health and societal impacts of climate change. Alignment of GME training with workforce considerations and climate action and adaptation initiatives will be critical in ensuring the U.S. has a climate-educated physician workforce capable of addressing health and healthcare system challenges. This article offers a number of recommendations for physician workforce priorities, resident education, and system-level changes to better prepare for the health and health system impacts of climate change.

Communicating Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene under Sustainable Development Goals 3, 4, and 6 as the Panacea for Epidemics and Pandemics Referencing the Succession of COVID-19 Surges

WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) has become the most crucial amenity in the past decade for every individual on the planet. In the UN agenda for 2030, which created 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), SDGs 3, 4, and 6 directly correlate with WASH practices and management for creating a good health hygiene environment for all. The dearth of WASH facilities has created barriers for averting the transmission of COVID-19, motivating the concept of WASH as the primary step of precaution and prevention, which includes WASH practices, communication for literacy, and positive behavioral changes primarily in developing and low-income countries. This Review deals with the complex concept of correlation of WASH and SDGs 3, 4, and 6 while defining elaborate WASH practices, including the prominence of clean water, the need for sanitation facilities, and health hygiene for good health and immunity for preparedness for and during epidemics and pandemics. Certain risk factors explain the sectors in which the gaps exist, creating a gap for implementation of WASH practices in epidemics and pandemics across the globe. Further, COVID-19 surge succession is presented along with data of different variants that have occurred. The need of WASH understanding is required using different tools (audio-visual, social media, print media, and mass media) and strategies (communication, advocacy, and positive behavioral changes) for every individual as an act to counter consequences during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and as a routine practice for future preparedness. This Review gives a detailed concept of WASH understanding for every sector from community to government agencies and research professionals to act immediately for the sustainable future of humanity.

Correlates of the country differences in the infection and mortality rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Bayesian model averaging

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also influenced the extent to which these discrepancies appeared. Consequently, there is an active debate regarding the critical socio-economic and health factors that correlate with the infection and mortality rates outcome of the pandemic. Here, we leverage Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data to investigate whether 28 variables, which describe a diverse set of health and socio-economic characteristics, correlate with the final number of infections and deaths during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. We show that only a few variables are able to robustly correlate with these outcomes. To understand the relationship between the potential correlates in explaining the infection and death rates, we create a Jointness Space. Using this space, we conclude that the extent to which each variable is able to provide a credible explanation for the COVID-19 infections/mortality outcome varies between countries because of their heterogeneous features.

Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system

A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious disease (EID) events. This Review explores the extent to which the incidence of wildlife-origin infectious disease outbreaks, which are likely to include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, may be linked to excessive and increasing rates of tropical deforestation for agricultural food production and wild meat hunting and trade, which are further related to contemporary ecological crises such as global warming and mass species extinction. Here we explore a set of precautionary responses to wildlife-origin zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into tropical wildlands by promoting a global transition to diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing tropical wild meat hunting and trade by curbing urban wild meat demand, while securing access for indigenous people and local communities in remote subsistence areas; and (c) improving biosecurity and other strategies to break zoonosis transmission pathways at the wildlife-human interface and along animal source food supply chains.

Planning for Climate Change in Small Island Developing States: Can Dominica’s Climate Resilience and Recovery Plan Be a Model for Transformation in the Caribbean?

In response to a series of historical and contemporary extreme weather events, Dominica, a small island developing state (SIDS) in the Caribbean, is pursuing an objective of climate resilience by 2030. In 2018, the Government developed the Climate Resilience and Recovery Plan 2020–2030 (CRRP) in the context of its National Resilience Development Strategy. These policy responses have been hailed as transformational. In this paper, we focus on the CRRP and investigate its quality. To achieve this, we conduct a desk-based qualitative assessment of the CRRP’s (1) information base; (2) vision, goals and objectives; (3) priorities and options; (4) actions and implementation; and (5) monitoring and evaluation. We find that the CRRP is strongest on (1) and (3), which is not uncommon for similar policies. We also discuss whether it can be a model for transformation in the Caribbean, given the region’s long history with trying to recover from and build resilience to disasters. We conclude that, in order for it to be used as a model, there are three key factors that other jurisdictions would need to consider. The first consideration is developing mechanisms for equitably sharing any benefits derived from the blue economy. The second consideration is centering Indigenous perspectives in environmental policy- and decision-making. The third consideration is adequately accounting for exogenous, unexpected risks. Given these three considerations, we see this study as contributing to discussions about what constitutes good policy in a SIDS context, which is an underexplored area in the existing academic literature.

The ecology of COVID-19 and related environmental and sustainability issues

Around the globe, human behavior and ecosystem health have been extensively and sometimes severely affected by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Most efforts to study these complex and heterogenous effects to date have focused on public health and economics. Some studies have evaluated the pandemic's influences on the environment, but often on a single aspect such as air or water pollution. The related research opportunities are relatively rare, and the approaches are unique in multiple aspects and mostly retrospective. Here, we focus on the diverse research opportunities in disease ecology and ecosystem sustainability related to the (intermittent) lockdowns that drastically reduced human activities. We discuss several key knowledge gaps and questions to address amid the ongoing pandemic. In principle, the common knowledge accumulated from invasion biology could also be effectively applied to COVID-19, and the findings could offer much-needed information for future pandemic prevention and management.

CHANS-Law: preventing the next pandemic through the integration of social and environmental law

Zoonotic viruses have sacrificed hundreds of millions of people throughout human history. There are currently 1.7 million unidentified viruses estimated to be circulating in mammal and bird populations. It is foreseeable that in the near future, another of these will transmit to people, heralding the start of the next pandemic-one potentially more deadly than COVID-19. At the core of this article is a call for pre-emptive protection of the natural environment and its regenerative systems as the first fundamental step in the prevention of future epidemics and pandemics. While zoonoses originate in nature, the predominant legal discipline, managing these crises, is international health law which is invoked reactively once an outbreak has been reported. In this paper, we identify the need for a legal shift in epidemic and pandemic responses. In particular, we call for the incorporation of international environmental agreements to prevent the initial viral spillover from animal to human populations. We propose a strategy of strengthening existing agreements and a coupling of legal disciplines, such as health and environmental law, emphasizing the need for synergies across legal disciplines to enhance the emergence and management of future pandemics and epidemics. We introduce Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) Law to frame the required integration across legal instruments to regulate inextricably human-nature connections and advocate for the development of a Convention on Epidemics and Pandemics.

Viral Infections and Male Infertility: A Comprehensive Review of the Role of Oxidative Stress

Viral infections have been a part of human existence to date, though viruses have posed a huge threat with various outbreaks lately. These threats are associated with reproductive health challenges, especially male infertility. The prime focus of this review is to highlight the mechanisms associated with viral infection-induced male infertility/subfertility and identify new treatment strategies with the aim to preserve male fertility. The reviewed data showed that viral infections stimulate inflammatory responses, resulting in the release of proinflammatory cytokines, which induces oxidative stress. This oxido-inflammatory cycle could continue in a vicious cycle and threaten male fertility. Existing data from human and experimental studies show that viral infection-induced oxido-inflammatory response results in testicular damage, atrophy of the seminiferous tubules and Sertoli cells, and reduced Leydig cell mass. This is accompanied by reduced circulatory testosterone, impaired spermatogenesis, reduced sperm motility, lipid peroxidation, DNA fragmentation and apoptosis of the sperm cells. Based on the available pieces of evidence, antioxidant therapy, in vivo and in vitro, may be beneficial and protects against the potential risk of male infertility from viral infection. It is, however recommended that more clinical studies be conducted to demonstrate the possible protective roles of antioxidants used as adjuvant therapy in viral infections, and in the in vitro treatment of semen samples for those utilizing semen washing and artificial reproductive techniques.

Assessing the potential repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on global SDG attainment

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a worldwide lockdown, and this restriction on human movements and activities has significantly affected society and the environment. Some effects might be quantitative, but some might be qualitative, and some effects could prolong immediately and/or persistently. This study examined the consequences of global lockdown for human movement and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions using an air pollution index and dataset and satellite image analyses. We also evaluated the immediate (during lockdown) and persistent (after lockdown) effects of lockdown on achieving the SDGs. Our analysis revealed a drastic reduction in human movement and NO2 emissions and showed that many SDGs were influenced both immediately and persistently due to the global lockdown. We observed the immediate negative impacts on four goals and positive impacts on five goals, especially those concerning economic issues and ecosystem conservation, respectively. The persistent effects of lockdown were likely to be predominantly reversed from their immediate impacts due to economic recovery. The global lockdown has influenced the global community's ability to meet the SDGs, and our analysis provides powerful insights into the status of the internationally agreed-upon SDGs both during and after the COVID-19-induced global lockdown.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-021-00067-2.

The Role of Bioeconomy in the Future Energy Scenario: A State-of-the-Art Review

The bioeconomy aims at decreasing reliance on fossil fuels, preventing or reducing climate change, eliminating insecurity, and efficiently using resources; however, fierce controversy exists on conceivable pathways to accomplish these objectives. The transport sector alone, which encompasses all other industrial sectors, has grown with regard to its energy demand by 50% over the past 30 years. The aim of this paper is to promote a dialogue as to whether an economy based on biomass can be more sustainable than today’s existing economies, considering that the economy needs to expand and be boosted, while creating a cascading and recycling system. This semi-systematic review paper discusses four research questions based on findings from the last 20 years: (i) What are the crucial issues in the ongoing debate on the development of a sustainable bioeconomy concept? (ii) Where are the major conflicting points and focuses? (iii) How does the bioeconomy follow current urbanization and land-abandonment trends? (iv) How will the crisis linked to the COVID-19 pandemic change these previous scenarios? As it is not easy to currently predict which pathway will be the most effective, whether it be the one taken as of now or a specific novel pathway, this article recommends following a strategy that is diverse regarding its approaches to shaping the bioeconomy and further funding of renewable energy sources, along with the involvement of urban planning. In addition, conclusions are validated through a questionnaire completed by 51 experts in the field.

Global implications of biodiversity loss on pandemic disease: COVID-19

Unpredictable climate changes and adverse effects on the planetary health due to environmental degradation have led to the rise of concerns regarding human wellness in the recent days. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is said to be originated from wildlife species and represents a significant threat to human health, social, food, and economic security. However, understanding the underlying factors behind the emergence is still rudimentary. This study has made efforts to understand the relationship between the drivers that causes the emergence of infectious diseases (EID). The recent biodiversity crisis that has a severe impact on planetary health is a new contributory factor for the emergence of COVID-19. The biodiversity crisis is an outcome of the land use and land cover (LULC) change, contributing to climate change. In the overall global LULC, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% indirect causes such as climate change. Climate change is one of the critical factors that induce landcover change, associated with increasing consumerism, environmental pollution, excessive livestock production, population explosion, and food production. Geospatial techniques provide a viable solution for monitoring the key drivers responsible for EID, such as climate characteristics, LULC, global land cover under food production, and locations affected by infectious diseases in the past. The study’s main objective is to discuss the possibilities of evolving novel solutions to approach the forecasting of emerging infectious disease spread and its mitigation, bridging the sectors and stakeholders, with due relevance to sustainable development goals (SDGs) and other dimensions from global to community levels.

Motivating young adults to connect with nature for stress relief: A study in Taiwan during the COVID-19 pandemic

It is known exposure to and connectedness with nature is beneficial for psychological wellbeing and stress relief. However, many factors hinder people, including young adults, from utilizing natural resources for healing. The present study indicates using a motivational enhancement approach and additional motivational elements in public messaging to address ambivalence toward nature exposure successfully results in favorable impacts on belief, intention, recall of positive nature elements, and perceived stress. Because this study coincided with the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan, it offers a valuable opportunity for exploring how effective the motivational indicators were at different stages of the pandemic, as well as how connectedness to nature can explain perceived stress. In measuring motivation, we captured the essential elements of mobilizing young adults to connect with nature while also exploring potential expansion of behavioral indicators. We discuss how to foster inspiration during a pandemic to enhance connectedness to nature.

COVID-19 pandemic, global spread, issues, and challenges

COVID-19 pandemic undoubtedly has a long-term implication for various aspects of governance. The coupled impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and natural hazards in global perspectives provided the opportunities to researchers, academicians, decision-makers, and practitioners to opening up new research avenues and policy requirements. Integrated assessment to quantify the societal consequences of the pandemic is the need of the hour to develop a comprehensive global response and recovery plan to regain the unprecedented impacts to global governance. The book is an attempt to conduct the assessment for regaining global phenomena; it is important to understand the cutting-edge vulnerability and deprivation to address inequalities between countries and shifting modality in risk governance. The case studies of COVID-19 pandemic impacts, governance, and consequences have been analyzed from various perspectives at the local, national, and regional levels.

Current and future threats to human health in the Anthropocene

It has been widely recognised that the threats to human health from global environmental changes (GECs) are increasing in the Anthropocene epoch, and urgent actions are required to tackle these pressing challenges. A scoping review was conducted to provide an overview of the nine planetary boundaries and the threats to population health posed by human activities that are exceeding these boundaries in the Anthropocene. The research progress and key knowledge gaps were identified in this emerging field. Over the past three decades, there has been a great deal of research progress on health risks from climate change, land-use change and urbanisation, biodiversity loss and other GECs. However, several significant challenges remain, including the misperception of the relationship between human and nature; assessment of the compounding risks of GECs; strategies to reduce and prevent the potential health impacts of GECs; and uncertainties in fulfilling the commitments to the Paris Agreement. Confronting these challenges will require rigorous scientific research that is well-coordinated across different disciplines and various sectors. It is imperative for the international community to work together to develop informed policies to avert crises and ensure a safe and sustainable planet for the present and future generations.

Effectiveness of a Theory-Informed Documentary to Reduce Consumption of Meat and Animal Products: Three Randomized Controlled Experiments

Several societal issues could be mitigated by reducing global consumption of meat and animal products (MAP). In three randomized, controlled experiments (n=217 to 574), we evaluated the effects of a documentary that presents health, environmental, and animal welfare motivations for reducing MAP consumption. Study 1 assessed the documentary's effectiveness at reducing reported MAP consumption after 12 days. This study used methodological innovations to minimize social desirability bias, a widespread limitation of past research. Study 2 investigated discrepancies between the results of Study 1 and those of previous studies by further examining the role of social desirability bias. Study 3 assessed the documentary's effectiveness in a new population anticipated to be more responsive and upon enhancing the intervention content. We found that the documentary did not decrease reported MAP consumption when potential social desirability bias was minimized (Studies 1 and 3). The documentary also did not affect consumption among participants whose demographics suggested they might be more receptive (Study 3). However, the documentary did substantially increase intentions to reduce consumption, consistent with past studies (Studies 2 and 3). Overall, we conclude that some past studies of similar interventions may have overestimated effects due to methodological biases. Novel intervention strategies to reduce MAP consumption may be needed.

COVID-19: Marking the Gaps in Migrant and Refugee Health in Some Massive Migration Areas

The health of migrants and refugees, which has long been a cause for concern, has come under greatly increased pressure in the last decade. Against a background where the world has witnessed the largest numbers of migrants in history, the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has stretched the capacities of countries and of aid, health and relief organizations, from global to local levels, to meet the human rights and pressing needs of migrants and refugees for access to health care and to public health measures needed to protect them from the pandemic. The overview in this article of the situation in examples of middle-income countries that have hosted mass migration in recent years has drawn on information from summaries presented in an M8 Alliance Expert Meeting, from peer-reviewed literature and from reports from international agencies concerned with the status and health of migrants and refugees. The multi-factor approach developed here draws on perspectives from structural factors (including rights, governance, policies and practices), health determinants (including economic, environmental, social and political, as well as migration itself as a determinant) and the human security framework (defined as "freedom from want and fear and freedom to live in dignity" and incorporating the interactive dimensions of health, food, environmental, economic, personal, community and political security). These integrate as a multi-component 'ecological perspective' to examine the legal status, health rights and access to health care and other services of migrants and refugees, to mark gap areas and to consider the implications for improving health security both for them and for the communities in countries in which they reside or through which they transit.

Enclave-Reinforced Inequality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from University Campus Lockdowns in Wuhan, China

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted urban life and created spatial and social inequalities in cities. The impacts of lifting full lockdown restrictions once fast-spreading and community-acquired infection waves were under control are still not fully understood. This study aims to explore spatial inequality reinforced in the intervals between the waves of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. Enclave-reinforced inequality resulting from enclave-based lockdown policies in Chinese cities was investigated through an analysis of the impacts of university campus enclave closures on the accessibility and crowdedness of urban green spaces. Using a modified two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) and inversed 2SFCA (i2SFCA) method, accessibility and crowdedness were calculated and compared under two different scenarios. Additionally, the Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient, and Theil index were used to measure and compare intra-city global and local inequalities under each scenario. The results indicate that the lockdown of university campus enclaves decreased the supply of urban green spaces. Campus closures not only exacerbated the unequal distribution of urban green space, but also reduced the inequality of crowdedness in urban parks due to increased crowdedness in parks near the closed enclaves. Moreover, both accessibility and crowdedness worsened when the calculations were weighted for population size and the total supply of green space. Enclave-based lockdown in cities reinforced spatial inequality, and it is highly complex and has multidimensional impacts on urban inequalities and environmental injustice which should be considered by urban planners and decision-makers hoping to create healthy, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable cities in the “new normal” of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Land-use change and rodent-borne diseases: hazards on the shared socioeconomic pathways

Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir hosts and affects host-pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at the regional and local scale. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Impact of Epidemic-Affected Labor Shortage on Food Safety: A Chinese Scenario Analysis Using the CGE Model

Human food safety should be given priority during a major public health crisis. As the primary element of agricultural production, labor tends to suffer the most during a period of public health concern. Studying the impact of epidemic-affected labor shortages on agricultural production, trade, and prices has important implications for food security. This study used a calculable general equilibrium model to study the changes in agricultural production, trade, and prices under different labor damage scenarios. The results showed that agricultural production was less affected under a scenario where the epidemic was controlled locally. The output of agricultural products decreased by about 2.19%, and the prices of agricultural products increased slightly. However, the nationwide output of agricultural products decreased by only 0.1%, and the prices remained largely stable. In the case of the spread of the epidemic, the output of agricultural products in the epidemic area decreased by 2.11%, and the prices of certain agricultural products increased significantly. For example, the price of vegetables increased by 0.78%, the price of pork increased by about 0.7%, and those of agricultural products in other parts of the country also increased slightly. Compared with the national spread scenario, the local outbreak scenario had a smaller impact on Chinese food security, indicating Chinese effective policy against the epidemic. Although the impact of labor shortage under the influence of the epidemic on China was relatively limited, and considering its stable food security, we should pay attention to the increase in the process of agricultural products and changes in agricultural trade in the epidemic area. The residents in the epidemic areas could not effectively obtain nutritious food, which affected their health. Thus, the government should also completely mobilize agricultural resources to ensure the nutrition safety of residents during major public health incidents.

Have environmental preferences and willingness to pay remained stable before and during the global Covid-19 shock?

This study tests the stability of environmental preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) values using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) across three countries pre and post the peak of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. A DCE examining the public's preferences for alternative environmental management plans on the high seas, in the area of the Flemish Cap, was carried out in Canada, Scotland and Norway in late 2019 and was rerun in early May 2020 shortly after the Covid-19 pandemic had officially peaked in the three countries. The same choice set sequence is tested across the two periods, using different but nationally representative samples in each case. Entropy balancing, a multivariate reweighting method, is used to achieve covariate balance between the pre and post Covid samples in the analysis. The results suggest that both preferences and WTP remain relatively stable in the face of a major public health crisis and economic upheaval.

The COVID-19 pandemic is intricately linked to biodiversity loss and ecosystem health

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by zoonotic SARS-CoV-2, has important links to biodiversity loss and ecosystem health. These links range from anthropogenic activities driving zoonotic disease emergence and extend to the pandemic affecting biodiversity conservation, environmental policy, ecosystem services, and multiple conservation facets. Crucially, such effects can exacerbate the initial drivers, resulting in feedback loops that are likely to promote future zoonotic disease outbreaks. We explore these feedback loops and relationships, highlighting known and potential zoonotic disease emergence drivers (eg, land-use change, intensive livestock production, wildlife trade, and climate change), and discuss direct and indirect effects of the ongoing pandemic on biodiversity loss and ecosystem health. We stress that responses to COVID-19 must include actions aimed at safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems, in order to avoid future emergence of zoonoses and prevent their wide-ranging effects on human health, economies, and society. Such responses would benefit from adopting a One Health approach, enhancing cross-sector, transboundary communication, as well as from collaboration among multiple actors, promoting planetary and human health.

Socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 in Asian countries: An empirical analysis

The spread of coronavirus disease, 2019, has affected several countries in the world including Asian countries. The occurrences of COVID infections are uneven across countries and the same is determined by socioeconomic situations prevailing in the countries besides the preparedness and management. The paper is an attempt to empirically examine the socioeconomic determinants of the occurrence of COVID in Asian countries considering the data as of June 18, 2020, for 42 Asian countries. A multiple regression analysis in a cross-sectional framework is specified and ordinary least square (OLS) technique with heteroscedasticity corrected robust standard error is employed to obtain regression coefficients. Explanatory variables that are highly collinear have been dropped from the analysis. The findings of the study show a positive significant association of per capita gross national income and net migration with the incidence of total COVID-19 cases and daily new cases. The size of net migration emerged to be a potential factor and positive in determining the total and new cases of COVID. Social capital as measured by voters' turnout ratio (VTR) in order to indicate the people's participation is found to be significant and negative for daily new cases per million population. People's participation has played a very important role in checking the incidence of COVID cases and its spread. In alternate models, countries having high incidence of poverty are also having higher cases of COVID. Though the countries having higher percentage of aged populations are more prone to be affected by the spread of virus, but the sign of the coefficient of this variable for Asian country is not in the expected line. Previous year health expenditure and diabetic prevalence rate are not significant in the analysis. Therefore, people-centric plan and making people more participatory and responsive in adhering to the social distancing norms in public and workplace and adopting preventive measures need to be focused on COVID management strategies. The countries having larger net migration and poverty ratio need to evolve comprehensive and inclusive strategies for testing, tracing, and massive awareness for sanitary practices, social distancing, and following government regulation for management of COVID-19, besides appropriate food security measures and free provision of sanitary kits for vulnerable section.

Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems

Context

The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting health and economies across the world, although the nature of direct and indirect effects on Asian agrifood systems and food security has not yet been well understood.

Objectives

This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments.

Methods

A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed.

Results and conclusion

The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes.

Significance

This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.