Duration of SARS-CoV-2 Natural Immunity and Protection against the Delta Variant: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Immune responses in COVID-19 patients: Insights into cytokine storms and adaptive immunity kinetics

SARS-CoV-2 infection can trigger cytokine storm in some patients, which characterized by an excessive production of cytokines and chemical mediators. This hyperactive immune response may cause significant tissue damage and multiple organ failure (MOF). The severity of COVID-19 correlates with the intensity of cytokine storm, involving elements such as IFN, NF-κB, IL-6, HMGB1, etc. It is imperative to rapidly engage adaptive immunity to effectively control the disease progression. CD4+ T cells facilitate an immune response by improving B cells in the production of neutralizing antibodies and activating CD8+ T cells, which are instrumental in eradicating virus-infected cells. Meanwhile, antibodies from B cells can neutralize virus, obstructing further infection of host cells. In individuals who have recovered from the disease, virus-specific antibodies and memory T cells were observed, which could confer a level of protection, reducing the likelihood of re-infection or attenuating severity. This paper discussed the roles of macrophages, IFN, IL-6 and HMGB1 in cytokine release syndrome (CRS), the intricacies of adaptive immunity, and the persistence of immune memory, all of which are critical for the prevention and therapeutic strategies against COVID-19.

Protective effectiveness of previous infection against subsequent SARS-Cov-2 infection: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The protective effectiveness provided by naturally acquired immunity against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection remain controversial.

Objective

To systematically evaluate the protective effect of natural immunity against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection with different variants.

Methods

We searched for related studies published in seven databases before March 5, 2023. Eligible studies included in the analysis reported the risk of subsequent infection for groups with or without a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome was the overall pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection/infection between the two groups. We also focused on the protective effectiveness of natural immunity against reinfection/infection with different SARS-CoV-2 variants. We used a random-effects model to pool the data, and obtained the bias-adjusted results using the trim-and-fill method. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding included studies one by one to evaluate the stability of the results.

Results

We identified 40 eligible articles including more than 20 million individuals without the history of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The bias-adjusted efficacy of naturally acquired antibodies against reinfection was estimated at 65% (pooled IRR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.26-0.47), with higher efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 cases (pooled IRR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.08-0.26) than asymptomatic infection (pooled IRR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.29-0.54). Meta-regression revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variant was a statistically significant effect modifier, which explaining 46.40% of the variation in IRRs. For different SARS-CoV-2 variant, the pooled IRRs for the Alpha (pooled IRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.06-0.19), Delta (pooled IRR = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.15-0.24) and Omicron (pooled IRR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.42-0.87) variant were higher and higher. In other subgroup analyses, the pooled IRRs of SARS-CoV-2 infection were statistically various in different countries, publication year and the inclusion end time of population, with a significant difference (p = 0.02, p < 0.010 and p < 0.010), respectively. The risk of subsequent infection in the seropositive population appeared to increase slowly over time. Despite the heterogeneity in included studies, sensitivity analyses showed stable results.

Conclusion

Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection provides protection against pre-omicron reinfection, but less against omicron. Ongoing viral mutation requires attention and prevention strategies, such as vaccine catch-up, in conjunction with multiple factors.

Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves

BACKGROUND

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves.

METHODS

To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region.

RESULTS

We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

Previous SARS-CoV-2 infections and their impact on the protection from reinfection during the Omicron BA.5 wave - a nested case-control study among vaccinated adults in Sweden

Objectives

We evaluated the protection afforded by SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced immunity against reinfection among working-age vaccinated individuals during a calendar period from June to December 2022 when Omicron BA.5 was the dominating subvariant in Scania County, Sweden.

Methods

The study cohort (n = 71,592) mainly consisted of health care workers. We analyzed 4144 infected cases during the Omicron BA.5 dominance and 41,440 sex- and age-matched controls with conditional logistic regression.

Results

The average protection against reinfection was marginal (16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7-23%) during the study period but substantially higher for recent infections. Recent infection (3-6 months) with Omicron BA.2 and BA.5 offered strong protection (86%, 95% CI 68-94% and 78%, 95% CI 69-84%), whereas more distant infection (6-12 months) with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and the variants before Omicron offered marginal or no protection.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that infection-induced immunity contributes to short-term population protection against infection with the subvariant BA.5 among working-age vaccinated individuals but wanes considerably with time, independent of the virus variant.

A bead-based multiplex assay covering all coronaviruses pathogenic for humans for sensitive and specific surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity

Serological assays measuring antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are key to describe the epidemiology, pathobiology or induction of immunity after infection or vaccination. Of those, multiplex assays targeting multiple antigens are especially helpful as closely related coronaviruses or other antigens can be analysed simultaneously from small sample volumes, hereby shedding light on patterns in the immune response that would otherwise remain undetected. We established a bead-based 17-plex assay detecting antibodies targeting antigens from all coronaviruses pathogenic for humans: SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, HCoV strains 229E, OC43, HKU1, and NL63. The assay was validated against five commercial serological immunoassays, a commercial surrogate virus neutralisation test, and a virus neutralisation assay, all targeting SARS-CoV-2. It was found to be highly versatile as shown by antibody detection from both serum and dried blot spots and as shown in three case studies. First, we followed seroconversion for all four endemic HCoV strains and SARS-CoV-2 in an outbreak study in day-care centres for children. Second, we were able to link a more severe clinical course to a stronger IgG response with this 17-plex-assay, which was IgG1 and IgG3 dominated. Finally, our assay was able to discriminate recent from previous SARS-CoV-2 infections by calculating the IgG/IgM ratio on the N antigen targeting antibodies. In conclusion, due to the comprehensive method comparison, thorough validation, and the proven versatility, our multiplex assay is a valuable tool for studies on coronavirus serology.

Incidence and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

With the emergence of new variants and sub-lineages of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), reinfections can significantly impact herd immunity, vaccination policies, and decisions on other public health measures. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise the global evidence on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in the pre-Omicron era.

Methods

We searched five global databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, Global Health, WHO COVID-19) on 12 May 2022 and 28 July 2023 and three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, CQvip) on 16 October 2022 for articles reporting incidence and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection before the period of Omicron (B.1.1.529) predominance. We assessed risk of bias using Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools and conducted meta-analyses with random effects models to estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among initially infected cases and hospitalisation and mortality proportions among reinfected ones.

Results

We identified 7593 studies and extracted data from 64 included ones representing 21 countries. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was 1.16% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.33) based on 11 639 247 initially infected cases, with ≥45 days between the two infections. Healthcare providers (2.28%; 95% CI = 1.37-3.40) had a significantly higher risk of reinfection than the general population (1.00%; 95% CI = 0.81-1.20), while young adults aged 18 to 35 years (1.01%; 95% CI = 0.8-1.25) had a higher reinfection burden than other age groups (children <18 years old: 0.57%; 95% CI = 0.39-0.79, older adults aged 36-65 years old: 0.53%; 95% CI = 0.41-0.65, elderly >65 years old: 0.37%; 95% CI = 0.15-0.66). Among the reinfected cases, 8.12% (95% CI = 5.30-11.39) were hospitalised, 1.31% (95% CI = 0.29-2.83) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 0.71% (95% CI = 0.02-2.01) died.

Conclusions

Our data suggest a relatively low risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era, but the risk of hospitalisation was relatively high among the reinfected cases. Considering the possibility of underdiagnosis, the reinfection burden may be underestimated.

Registration

PROSPERO: CRD42023449712.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization in individuals with natural, vaccine-induced and hybrid immunity: a retrospective population-based cohort study from Estonia

A large proportion of the world's population has some form of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, through either infection ('natural'), vaccination or both ('hybrid'). This retrospective cohort study used data on SARS-CoV-2, vaccination, and hospitalization from national health system from February 2020 to June 2022 and Cox regression modelling to compare those with natural immunity to those with no (Cohort1, n = 94,982), hybrid (Cohort2, n = 47,342), and vaccine (Cohort3, n = 254,920) immunity. In Cohort 1, those with natural immunity were at lower risk for infection during the Delta (aHR 0.17, 95%CI 0.15-0.18) and higher risk (aHR 1.24, 95%CI 1.18-1.32) during the Omicron period than those with no immunity. Natural immunity conferred substantial protection against COVID-19-hospitalization. Cohort 2-in comparison to natural immunity hybrid immunity offered strong protection during the Delta (aHR 0.61, 95%CI 0.46-0.80) but not the Omicron (aHR 1.05, 95%CI 0.93-1.1) period. COVID-19-hospitalization was extremely rare among individuals with hybrid immunity. In Cohort 3, individuals with vaccine-induced immunity were at higher risk than those with natural immunity for infection (Delta aHR 4.90, 95%CI 4.48-5.36; Omicron 1.13, 95%CI 1.06-1.21) and hospitalization (Delta aHR 7.19, 95%CI 4.02-12.84). These results show that risk of infection and severe COVID-19 are driven by personal immunity history and the variant of SARS-CoV-2 causing infection.

Impact of general incidence function on three-strain SEIAR model

We investigate the behavior of a complex three-strain model with a generalized incidence rate. The incidence rate is an essential aspect of the model as it determines the number of new infections emerging. The mathematical model comprises thirteen nonlinear ordinary differential equations with susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic and recovered compartments. The model is well-posed and verified through existence, positivity and boundedness. Eight equilibria comprise a disease-free equilibria and seven endemic equilibrium points following the existence of three strains. The basic reproduction numbers $ \mathfrak{R}_{01} $, $ \mathfrak{R}_{02} $ and $ \mathfrak{R}_{03} $ represent the dominance of strain 1, strain 2 and strain 3 in the environment for new strain emergence. The model establishes local stability at a disease-free equilibrium point. Numerical simulations endorse the impact of general incidence rates, including bi-linear, saturated, Beddington DeAngelis, non-monotone and Crowley Martin incidence rates.

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination

BACKGROUND

While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection.

METHODS

In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures.

FINDINGS

Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease.

INTERPRETATION

Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Rationale for combined therapies in severe-to-critical COVID-19 patients

An unprecedented global social and economic impact as well as a significant number of fatalities have been brought on by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), produced by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Acute SARS-CoV-2 infection can, in certain situations, cause immunological abnormalities, leading to an anomalous innate and adaptive immune response. While most patients only experience mild symptoms and recover without the need for mechanical ventilation, a substantial percentage of those who are affected develop severe respiratory illness, which can be fatal. The absence of effective therapies when disease progresses to a very severe condition coupled with the incomplete understanding of COVID-19's pathogenesis triggers the need to develop innovative therapeutic approaches for patients at high risk of mortality. As a result, we investigate the potential contribution of promising combinatorial cell therapy to prevent death in critical patients.

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among Patients Recovered From COVID-19 Infection in Wuhan, China: Cross-Sectional Questionnaire Study

BACKGROUND

Although patients recovered from COVID-19 already have immunity gained from natural infection, they are still at risk of reinfection due to the emergence of new variants of COVID-19 and the diminishing of naturally acquired immunity over time. Vaccination is associated with efficacious protection against COVID-19 infection and could boost infection-acquired immunity; however, various COVID-19 survivors have not been vaccinated due to vaccine hesitancy.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and related factors among COVID-19 survivors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted among patients who recovered from COVID-19 infection in Wuhan, China, between June 10 and July 25, 2021. The questionnaire included sociodemographic information, items on COVID-19 infection, the COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy scale based on the 3Cs (complacency, convenience, and confidence) model, trust in vaccine manufacturers and health facilities, and reasons for the decision to accept COVID-19 vaccination. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

RESULTS

Among the 1422 participants, 538 (37.8%) were not vaccinated against COVID-19. The COVID-19-recovered patients who self-reported having a current unhealthy status expressed more hesitancy about the COVID-19 vaccine than those who perceived themselves to be healthy (odds ratio [OR] 0.45, 95% CI 0.28-0.71). Compared to the asymptomatic patients, patients with mild symptoms were more likely to receive a COVID-19 vaccine (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.02-2.82). Regarding the 3Cs model, high complacency (P=.005) and low convenience (P=.004) were significant negative factors for COVID-19 vaccination. Trust in vaccine manufacturers and health facilities was a significant positive factor for COVID-19 vaccination (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19). "Self-needs" was the main reason for patients to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, whereas "already have antibodies and do not need vaccination" was the main reason for patients to not receive the COVID-19 vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the three major factors of vaccine hesitancy, complacency proved to be the most notable among COVID-19-recovered patients. Therefore, educational campaigns can focus on raising the awareness of risk of infection and the benefits of vaccination to reduce complacency toward vaccination among this population. In particular, for individuals who have recovered from COVID-19, improving factors related to convenience such as transportation, the environment of vaccination, and providing door-to-door service was also deemed necessary to facilitate their vaccination. In addition, addressing the concerns about vaccination of COVID-19-recovered patients could foster trust and promote their uptake of vaccination.

Inference on a Multi-Patch Epidemic Model with Partial Mobility, Residency, and Demography: Case of the 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico

Most studies modeling population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly those using meta-population multi-patch models, tend to focus on the theoretical properties and numerical simulation of such models. As such, there is relatively scant literature focused on numerical fit, inference, and uncertainty quantification of epidemic models with population mobility. In this research, we use three estimation techniques to solve an inverse problem and quantify its uncertainty for a human-mobility-based multi-patch epidemic model using mobile phone sensing data and confirmed COVID-19-positive cases in Hermosillo, Mexico. First, we utilize a Brownian bridge model using mobile phone GPS data to estimate the residence and mobility parameters of the epidemic model. In the second step, we estimate the optimal model epidemiological parameters by deterministically inverting the model using a Darwinian-inspired evolutionary algorithm (EA)-that is, a genetic algorithm (GA). The third part of the analysis involves performing inference and uncertainty quantification in the epidemic model using two Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling methods: t-walk and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The results demonstrate that the estimated model parameters and incidence adequately fit the observed daily COVID-19 incidence in Hermosillo. Moreover, the estimated parameters from the HMC method yield large credible intervals, improving their coverage for the observed and predicted daily incidences. Furthermore, we observe that the use of a multi-patch model with mobility yields improved predictions when compared to a single-patch model.

Outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in individuals with natural and hybrid immunity

BACKGROUND

Studies comparing SARS-CoV-2 reinfection outcomes among individuals with previous infection (natural immunity) and previous infection plus vaccination (hybrid immunity) are limited.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study comparing SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among patients with hybrid immunity (cases) and natural immunity (controls) from March 2020 to February 2022. Reinfection was defined as positive PCR > 90 days after initial laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Outcomes included time to reinfection, symptom severity, COVID-19-related hospitalization, critical COVID-19 illness (need for intensive care unit, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death), length of stay (LOS).

RESULTS

A total of 773 (42%) vaccinated and 1073 (58%) unvaccinated patients with reinfection were included. Most patients (62.7%) were asymptomatic. Median time to reinfection was longer with hybrid immunity (391 [311-440] vs 294 [229-406] days, p < 0.001). Cases were less likely to be symptomatic (34.1% vs 39.6%, p = 0.001) or develop critical COVID-19 (2.3% vs 4.3%, p = 0.023). However, there was no significant difference in rates of COVID-19-related hospitalization (2.6% vs 3.8%, p = 0.142) or LOS (5 [2-9] vs 5 [3-10] days, p = 0.446). Boosted patients had longer time to reinfection (439 [IQR 372-467] vs 324 [IQR 256-414] days, p < 0.001) and were less likely to be symptomatic (26.8% vs 38%, p = 0.002) compared to unboosted patients. Rates of hospitalization, progression to critical illness and LOS were not significantly different between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural and hybrid immunity provided protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and hospitalization. However, hybrid immunity conferred stronger protection against symptomatic disease and progression to critical illness and was associated with longer time to reinfection. The stronger protection conferred by hybrid immunity against severe outcomes due to COVID-19 should be emphasized with the public to further the vaccination effort, especially in high-risk individuals.

Adverse Events Following Immunization With mRNA and Viral Vector Vaccines in Individuals With Previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection From the Canadian National Vaccine Safety Network

BACKGROUND

Adults previously infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) develop short-term immunity and may have increased reactogenicity to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. This prospective, multicenter, active-surveillance cohort study examined the short-term safety of COVID-19 vaccines in adults with a prior history of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Canadian adults vaccinated between 22 December 2020 and 27 November 2021 were sent an electronic questionnaire 7 days post-dose 1, dose 2, and dose 3 vaccination. The main outcome was health events occurring in the first 7 days after each vaccination that prevented daily activities, resulted in work absenteeism, or required a medical consultation, including hospitalization.

RESULTS

Among 684 998 vaccinated individuals, 2.6% (18 127/684 998) reported a prior history of SARS-CoV-2 infection a median of 4 (interquartile range: 2-6) months previously. After dose 1, individuals with moderate (bedridden) to severe (hospitalized) COVID-19 who received BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or ChAdox1-S vaccines had higher odds of a health event preventing daily activities, resulting in work absenteeism or requiring medical consultation (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 3.96 [3.67-4.28] for BNT162b2, 5.01 [4.57-5.50] for mRNA-1273, and 1.84 [1.54-2.20] for ChAdox1-S compared with no infection). Following dose 2 and 3, the greater risk associated with previous infection was also present but was attenuated compared with dose 1. For all doses, the association was lower or absent after mild or asymptomatic infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with moderate or severe previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to have a health event sufficient to impact routine activities or require medical assessment in the week following each vaccine dose.

The Ethical Significance of Post-Vaccination COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics

The potential for vaccines to prevent the spread of infectious diseases is crucial for vaccination policy and ethics. In this paper, I discuss recent evidence that the current COVID-19 vaccines have only a modest and short-lived effect on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and argue that this has at least four important ethical implications. First, getting vaccinated against COVID-19 should be seen primarily as a self-protective choice for individuals. Second, moral condemnation of unvaccinated people for causing direct harm to others is unjustified. Third, the case for a harm-based moral obligation to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is weak. Finally, and perhaps most significantly, coercive COVID-19 vaccination policies (e.g., measures that exclude unvaccinated people from society) cannot be directly justified by the harm principle.

Exercise mobilizes diverse antigen specific T-cells and elevates neutralizing antibodies in humans with natural immunity to SARS CoV-2

Epidemiological data suggest that physical activity protects against severe COVID-19 and improves clinical outcomes, but how exercise augments the SARS-CoV-2 viral immune response has yet to be elucidated. Here we determine the antigen-specific CD4 and CD8 T-cell and humoral immunity to exercise in non-vaccinated individuals with natural immunity to SARS CoV-2, using whole-blood SARS-CoV-2 peptide stimulation assays, IFN-γ ELISPOT assays, 8-color flow cytometry, deep T-cell receptor (TCR) β sequencing, and anti-RBD-1 neutralizing antibody serology. We found that acute exercise reliably mobilized (∼2.5-fold increase) highly functional SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cells to the blood compartment in those with natural immunity to the virus. The mobilized cells reacted with spike protein (including alpha (α) and delta (δ)-variants), membrane, and nucleocapsid peptides in those previously infected but not in controls. Both groups reliably mobilized T-cells reacting with Epstein-Barr viral peptides. Exercise mobilized SARS-CoV-2 specific T-cells maintained broad TCR-β diversity with no impact on CDR3 length or V and J family gene usage. Exercise predominantly mobilized MHC I restricted (i.e. CD8⁺) SARS-CoV-2 specific T-cells that recognized ORF1ab, surface, ORF7b, nucleocapsid, and membrane proteins. SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies were transiently elevated ∼1.5-fold during exercise after infection. In conclusion, we provide novel data on a potential mechanism by which exercise could increase SARS-CoV-2 immunosurveillance via the mobilization and redistribution of antigen-specific CD8 T-cells and neutralizing antibodies. Further research is needed to define the tissue specific disease protective effects of exercise as SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, as well as the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on this response.

Vaccine mandates for healthcare workers beyond COVID-19

We provide ethical criteria to establish when vaccine mandates for healthcare workers are ethically justifiable. The relevant criteria are the utility of the vaccine for healthcare workers, the utility for patients (both in terms of prevention of transmission of infection and reduction in staff shortage), and the existence of less restrictive alternatives that can achieve comparable benefits. Healthcare workers have professional obligations to promote the interests of patients that entail exposure to greater risks or infringement of autonomy than ordinary members of the public. Thus, we argue that when vaccine mandates are justified on the basis of these criteria, they are not unfairly discriminatory and the level of coercion they involve is ethically acceptable-and indeed comparable to that already accepted in healthcare employment contracts. Such mandates might be justified even when general population mandates are not. Our conclusion is that, given current evidence, those ethical criteria justify mandates for influenza vaccination, but not COVID-19 vaccination, for healthcare workers. We extend our arguments to other vaccines.

Severity and Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection Compared with Primary Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection has brought new challenges to the global prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic; however, current studies suggest that there is still great uncertainty about the risk of severe COVID-19 and poor outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. Random-effects inverse-variance models were used to evaluate the pooled prevalence (PP) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) of severity, outcomes and symptoms of reinfection. Random-effects were used to estimate the pooled odds ratios (OR) and its 95%CI of severity and outcomes between reinfections and primary infections. Nineteen studies involving a total of 34,375 cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and 5,264,720 cases of SARS-CoV-2 primary infection were included in this meta-analysis. Among those SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases, 41.77% (95%CI, 19.23-64.31%) were asymptomatic, and 51.83% (95%CI, 23.90-79.76%) were symptomatic, only 0.58% (95%CI, 0.031-1.14%) manifested as severe illness, and 0.04% (95%CI, 0.009-0.078%) manifested as critical illness. The PPs for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection-related hospitalization, admission to ICU, and death were, respectively, 15.48% (95%CI, 11.98-18.97%), 3.58% (95%CI, 0.39-6.77%), 2.96% (95%CI, 1.25-4.67%). Compared with SARS-CoV-2 primary infection cases, reinfection cases were more likely to present with mild illness (OR = 7.01, 95%CI, 5.83-8.44), and the risk of severe illness was reduced by 86% (OR = 0.14, 95%CI, 0.11-0.16). Primary infection provided some protection against reinfection and reduces the risk of symptomatic infection and severe illness. Reinfection did not contribute to extra risk of hospitalization, ICU, or death. It is suggested to scientifically understand the risk of reinfection of SARS-CoV-2, strengthen public health education, maintain healthy habits, and reduce the risk of reinfection.

Major Update 2: Antibody Response and Risk for Reinfection After SARS-CoV-2 Infection-Final Update of a Living, Rapid Review

BACKGROUND

The durability of the antibody response after SARS-CoV-2 infection and the role of antibodies in protection against reinfection are unclear.

PURPOSE

To synthesize evidence on the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response and reinfection risk with a focus on gaps identified in our prior reports.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, CINAHL, World Health Organization Research Database, and reference lists from 16 December 2021 through 8 July 2022, with surveillance through 22 August 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language, cohort studies evaluating IgG antibody duration at least 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, the antibody response among immunocompromised adults, predictors of nonseroconversion, and reinfection risk.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two investigators sequentially extracted study data and rated quality.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Most adults had IgG antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection at time points greater than 12 months (low strength of evidence [SoE]). Although most immunocompromised adults develop antibodies, the overall proportion with antibodies is lower compared with immunocompetent adults (moderate SoE for organ transplant patients and low SoE for patients with cancer or HIV). Prior infection provided substantial, sustained protection against symptomatic reinfection with the Delta variant (high SoE) and reduced the risk for severe disease due to Omicron variants (moderate SoE). Prior infection was less protective against reinfection with Omicron overall (moderate SoE), but protection from earlier variants waned rapidly (low SoE).

LIMITATION

Single review for abstract screening and sequential review for study selection, data abstraction, and quality assessment.

CONCLUSION

Evidence for a sustained antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection is considerable for both Delta and Omicron variants. Prior infection protected against reinfection with both variants, but, for Omicron, protection was weaker and waned rapidly. This information may have limited clinical applicability as new variants emerge.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. (PROSPERO: CRD42020207098).

Moralization and Mismoralization in Public Health

Moralization is a social-psychological process through which morally neutral issues take on moral significance. Often linked to health and disease, moralization may sometimes lead to good outcomes; yet moralization is often detrimental to individuals and to society as a whole. It is therefore important to be able to identify when moralization is inappropriate. In this paper, we offer a systematic normative approach to the evaluation of moralization. We introduce and develop the concept of 'mismoralization', which is when moralization is metaethically unjustified. In order to identify mismoralization, we argue that one must engage in metaethical analysis of moralization processes while paying close attention to the relevant facts. We briefly discuss one historical example (tuberculosis) and two contemporary cases related to COVID-19 (infection and vaccination status) that we contend to have been mismoralized in public health. We propose a remedy of de-moralization that begins by identifying mismoralization and that proceeds by neutralizing inapt moral content. De-moralization calls for epistemic and moral humility. It should lead us to pull away from our tendency to moralize-as individuals and as social groups-whenever and wherever moralization is unjustified.

Evolution of neutralizing antibodies and cross-activity against different variants of SARS-CoV-2 in patients recovering from COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Patients recovering from COVID-19 may need vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 because acquired immunity from primary infection may wane, given the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Understanding the trends of anti-spike IgG and neutralizing antibody titers in patients recovering from COVID-19 may inform the decision made on the appropriate interval between recovery and vaccination.

METHODS

Participants aged 20 years or older and diagnosed with COVID-19 between January and December, 2020 were enrolled. Serum specimens were collected every three months from 10 days to 12 months after the onset of symptom for determinations of anti-spike IgG and neutralizing antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan strain with D614G mutation, alpha, gamma and delta variants.

RESULTS

Of 19 participants, we found a decreasing trend of geometric mean titers of anti-spike IgG from 560.9 to 217 and 92 BAU/mL after a 4-month and a 7-month follow-up, respectively. The anti-spike IgG titers declined more quickly in the ten participants with severe or critical disease than the nine participants with only mild to moderate disease between one month and seven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection (-8.49 vs - 2.34-fold, p < 0.001). The neutralizing activity of the convalescent serum specimens collected from participants recovering from wild-type SARS-CoV-2 infection against different variants was lower, especially against the delta variants (p < 0.01 for each variant with Wuhan strain as reference).

CONCLUSION

Acquired immunity from primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 waned within 4-7 months in COVID-19 patients, and neutralizing cross-activities against different SARS-CoV-2 variants were lower compared with those against wild-type strain.

Protection of vaccination versus hybrid immunity against infection with COVID-19 Omicron variants among Health-Care Workers

BACKGROUND AIM

The Omicron COVID-19 variants BA.1* and BA.2* evade immune system leading to increased transmissibility and breakthrough infections. We aim to test the hypothesis that immunity achieved post COVID-19 infection combined with vaccination (hybrid immunity), is more effective against Omicron infection than vaccination alone in a health-care setting.

METHODS

Data on regular pre-emptive PCR testing from all Health-Care Workers (HCWs) at Laiko University Hospital from 29th December 2020, date on which the national COVID-19 immunization program began in Greece, until 24th May 2022, were retrospectively collected and recorded. The infection rate was calculated after December 21st, 2021, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant in Greece, as the total number of infections (positive PCR COVID-19 test regardless of symptoms) divided by the total person-months at risk.

RESULTS

Of 1,305 vaccinated HCWs who were included in the analysis [median age of 47 (IQR: 36, 56) years, 66.7 % women], 13 % and 87 % had received 2 or 3 vaccine doses (full and booster vaccination), respectively. A COVID-19 infection had occurred in 135 of 1,305 of participants prior to Omicron predominance. Of those 135 HCWs with hybrid immunity only 13 (9.6 %) were re-infected. Of the 154 and 1,016 HCWs with full and booster vaccination-induced immunity, respectively, 71 (46.1 %, infection rate 13.4/100 person-months) and 448 (44.1 %, infection rate 12.2/100 person-months) were infected during the follow up period. No association between gender or age and COVID-19 infection was found and none of the participants had a severe infection or died.

CONCLUSIONS

Hybrid immunity confers higher protection by almost 5-fold compared to full or booster vaccination for COVID-19 infection with the Omicron variant among HCWs who are at high risk of exposure. This may inform public health policies on how to achieve optimal immunity in terms of the timing and mode of vaccination.

Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines (CovishieldTM and Covaxin ®) in healthcare workers in Mumbai, India: A retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

India started its vaccination programme for Coronavirus-19 infection (COVID-19) on 16 January 2021 with CovishieldTM (Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine manufactured by Serum Institute of India) and Covaxin ® (Bharat Biotech, India). We designed the present study to study the effectiveness of vaccines for COVID-19 in prevention of breakthrough infections and severe symptomatic cases among health care workers in a real-life scenario in Mumbai, India. Furthermore, we also wanted to study the factors associated with this effectiveness.

METHODS

This is cohort analysis of secondary data of 2762 individuals working in a tertiary health care setting in Mumbai, India (16 January 2021 to 16 October 2021). Vaccination records of all groups of health care staff (including the date of vaccination, type of vaccine taken, and date of positivity for COVID-19) were maintained at the hospital. The staff were tested for COVID-19 at least once a week and when symptomatic. The observation time for everyone was divided into unvaccinated, partially vaccinated (14 days after the first dose); and fully vaccinated (14 days after the second dose). If the individual was found to be positive, the day of positivity was considered the 'day of the event' for that individual. We combined unvaccinated/partially vaccinated into one group and completely vaccinated in the other group. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assessed as (1-HR)*100.

RESULTS

The mean age (SD) of the study participants was 32.3 (8.3) years; majority of these individuals had taken Covishield TM (99.0%) and only 0.9% (n = 27) had taken Covaxin ®. The incidence rate in the overall population was 0.067/100 person-days (PD). The incidence rate was significantly higher in the unvaccinated/partially vaccinated group compared with the fully vaccinated group (0.0989 / 100 PD vs 0.0403/100 PD; p < 0.001). The adjusted HR (aHR) in the fully vaccinated group compared with the unvaccinated/partially vaccinated group in the complete cohort was 0.30 (95% CI: 0.23, 0.39). Thus, the vaccine effectiveness (VE) for full vaccination was 70% (95% CI: 61%, 77%). It remained the same in the Covishield TM only cohort. The VE in completely vaccinated and with a history of previous infection was 88% (95% CI: 80%, 93%). Only 11 health care workers required hospitalization over the entire observation period; the incidence rate in our cohort was 0.0016 / 100 PD. None of the HCWs reported any severe adverse events after vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-world scenario, we did find that complete vaccination reduced the rate of infection, particularly severe infection in health care personnel even during the severe delta wave in the country. Even among those infected, the hospitalisation rates were very low, and none died. We did not record any major side effects of vaccination in these personnel. Previous infection with COVID-19 and complete vaccination had a significantly higher effectiveness in prevention of infection.

Milder outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 genetically confirmed reinfections compared to primary infections with the delta variant: A retrospective case-control study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 infection does not confer long immunity. However, studies suggest that prior infection is associated with lower risk of reinfection and milder outcomes of recurrent infections. The aims of this retrospective observational case-control study were to describe the clinical and molecular characteristics of genetically confirmed Delta reinfection cases and to assess the potential protective role of preceding infection on the severity of reinfection.

Methods

We used next generation sequencing (NGS) to explore if cases with two positive real time RT-PCR tests > 90 days apart were infected with a different SARS-CoV-2 variant. Cases with confirmed reinfection between August 1st and October 31st, 2021 (the Delta wave) in Slovenia were matched 1:4 by age, sex and timeframe (week of positive test) with individuals with primary infection. Sociodemographic and epidemiologic data, vaccination status, and data on hospitalization and outcome of infection were retrieved from several centralized and standardized national databases. Additional epidemiologic surveys were performed on a limited number of cases and controls.

Results

We identified 628 cases of genetically confirmed reinfection during the study period and matched them with 2,512 control subjects with Delta primary infection. Primary infections in individuals with reinfection were mainly caused by B.1.258.17 (51.1%), followed by B.1.1.7 (15.1%) and reinfection was detected on average 271 days after primary infection (range 101–477 days). Our results show a substantially lower probability of hospitalization in cases with reinfection compared with controls (OR: 0.21, p = 0.017), but no significant difference was observed in intensive care unit admission and deaths. We observed a significantly lower proportion of vaccinated individuals among cases compared to controls (4.5% vs. 28.2%), suggesting that hybrid immunity leads to lower probability of reinfection. Detailed analysis of the temporal distribution of variants, responsible for reinfections, showed no significant differences in reinfection potential.

Conclusion

Reinfection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant resulted in fewer hospitalizations compared to the primary Delta infection, suggesting that primary infection may, to some extent, produce at least short lasting protective immunity. This study provides additional insight into the reinfection dynamics that may allow appropriate public health measures to be taken in subsequent waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Risk of reinfection and disease after SARS-CoV-2 primary infection: Meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

A precise estimate of the frequency and severity of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections would be critical to optimize restriction and vaccination policies for the hundreds of millions previously infected subjects. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of reinfection and COVID-19 following primary infection.

METHODS

We searched MedLine, Scopus and preprint repositories for cohort studies evaluating the onset of new infections among baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects. Random-effect meta-analyses of proportions were stratified by gender, exposure risk, vaccination status, viral strain, time between episodes, and reinfection definition.

RESULTS

Ninety-one studies, enrolling 15,034,624 subjects, were included. Overall, 158,478 reinfections were recorded, corresponding to a pooled rate of 0.97% (95% CI: 0.71%-1.27%), with no substantial differences by definition criteria, exposure risk or gender. Reinfection rates were still 0.66% after ≥12 months from first infection, and the risk was substantially lower among vaccinated subjects (0.32% vs. 0.74% for unvaccinated individuals). During the first 3 months of Omicron wave, the reinfection rates reached 3.31%. Overall rates of severe/lethal COVID-19 were very low (2-7 per 10,000 subjects according to definition criteria) and were not affected by strain predominance.

CONCLUSIONS

A strong natural immunity follows the primary infection and may last for more than one year, suggesting that the risk and health care needs of recovered subjects might be limited. Although the reinfection rates considerably increased during the Omicron wave, the risk of a secondary severe or lethal disease remained very low. The risk-benefit profile of multiple vaccine doses for this subset of population needs to be carefully evaluated.

Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity among Healthy Young Adults over Seven Months

Background: We conducted a longitudinal study to estimate immunity produced in response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among university students over seven months. Methods: All participants were attending a public university and resided in Pitt County, North Carolina. University students enrolled weekly for 10 weeks between 26 August 2020 and 28 October 2020, resulting in 136 young adults completing at least one study visit by 17 November 2020. Enrolled students completed an online survey and nasal swab collection at two-week intervals and monthly blood collection between 26 August 2020 and 31 March 2021. Results: Amongst 695 serum samples tested during follow-up, the prevalence of a positive result for anti-nucleocapsid antibodies (N-IgG) was 9.78%. In 22 students with more than one positive N-IgG serum sample, 68.1% of the group lost persistence of N-IgG below the positive threshold over 140 days. Anti-spike IgG antibodies were significantly higher among 11 vaccinated compared to 10 unvaccinated. Conclusions: In healthy young adults, N-IgG wanes below the detectable threshold within five months. S-IgG titer remained consistently elevated months after infection, and significantly increased after vaccination.

Protection of Omicron sub-lineage infection against reinfection with another Omicron sub-lineage

There is significant genetic distance between SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages. This study investigates immune protection of infection with one sub-lineage against reinfection with the other sub-lineage in Qatar during a large BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron wave, from December 19, 2021 to March 21, 2022. Two national matched, retrospective cohort studies are conducted to estimate effectiveness of BA.1 infection against reinfection with BA.2 (N = 20,994; BA.1-against-BA.2 study), and effectiveness of BA.2 infection against reinfection with BA.1 (N = 110,315; BA.2-against-BA.1 study). Associations are estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression models after multiple imputation to assign a sub-lineage status for cases with no sub-lineage status (using probabilities based on the test date). Effectiveness of BA.1 infection against reinfection with BA.2 is estimated at 94.2% (95% CI: 89.2-96.9%). Effectiveness of BA.2 infection against reinfection with BA.1 is estimated at 80.9% (95% CI: 73.1-86.4%). Infection with the BA.1 sub-lineage appears to induce strong, but not full immune protection against reinfection with the BA.2 sub-lineage, and vice versa, for at least several weeks after the initial infection.

Early SARS-CoV-2 Reinfections within 60 Days and Implications for Retesting Policies

Illustrated by a clinical case supplemented by epidemiologic data, early reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 after infection with Delta variant, and reinfection with Omicron BA.2 after Omicron BA.1 infection, can occur within 60 days, especially in young, unvaccinated persons. The case definition of reinfection, which influences retesting policies, should be reconsidered.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron is an immune escape variant with an altered cell entry pathway

Vaccines based on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 are a cornerstone of the public health response to COVID-19. The emergence of hypermutated, increasingly transmissible variants of concern (VOCs) threaten this strategy. Omicron (B.1.1.529), the fifth VOC to be described, harbours multiple amino acid mutations in spike, half of which lie within the receptor-binding domain. Here we demonstrate substantial evasion of neutralization by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants in vitro using sera from individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273. These data were mirrored by a substantial reduction in real-world vaccine effectiveness that was partially restored by booster vaccination. The Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 did not induce cell syncytia in vitro and favoured a TMPRSS2-independent endosomal entry pathway, these phenotypes mapping to distinct regions of the spike protein. Impaired cell fusion was determined by the receptor-binding domain, while endosomal entry mapped to the S2 domain. Such marked changes in antigenicity and replicative biology may underlie the rapid global spread and altered pathogenicity of the Omicron variant.

Protection Against the Omicron Variant Offered by Previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Previous infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) provides strong protection against future infection. There is limited evidence on whether such protection extends to the Omicron variant.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 635 341 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 via polymerase chain reaction from 9 March 2020 to 1 March 2022. Patients were analyzed according to the wave in which they were initially infected. The primary outcome was reinfection during the Omicron period (20 December 2021-1 March 2022). We used a multivariable model to assess the effects of prior infection and vaccination on hospitalization.

RESULTS

Among the patients tested during the Omicron wave, 30.6% tested positive. Protection of prior infection against reinfection with Omicron ranged from 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.0-22.7) for patients infected in wave 1 to 69.2% (95% CI, 63.4-74.1) for those infected in the Delta wave. In adjusted models, previous infection reduced hospitalization by 28.5% (95% CI, 19.1-36.7), whereas full vaccination plus a booster reduced it by 59.2% (95% CI, 54.8-63.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Previous infection offered less protection against Omicron than was observed in past waves. Immunity against future waves will likely depend on the degree of similarity between variants.

Hybrid immunity against COVID-19 in different countries with a special emphasis on the Indian scenario during the Omicron period

Hybrid immunity has been accepted as the most robust immunity to fight against SARS-CoV-2. The hybrid immunity against the virus is produced in individuals who have contracted the disease and received the COVID-19 vaccine. This happens due to the cumulative effect of natural and acquired (vaccine) immunity, which provides higher antibody responses compared to natural and vaccine-produced immunity alone. Scientists have noted that it provides about 25 to 100 times higher antibody responses than natural and vaccine-produced immunity alone. Here, we have tried to illustrate the molecular basis of hybrid immunity against various SARS-CoV-2 variants.

We have described hybrid immunity under different headings, which are as follows: an overview of hybrid immunity; a comparison between herd immunity and hybrid immunity against SARS-CoV-2; hybrid immunity in different countries; hybrid immunity and different SARS-CoV-2 variants; the molecular basis of hybrid immunity; and hybrid immunity in Indian scenario.

India’s large population has recovered from SARS-CoV-2, and data shows that over 1000 million of the population received at least one dose of the vaccine. Besides, many infected individuals who have recovered also received at least one dose of the vaccine leading to hybrid immunity with a less severe third wave compared to the first and second waves. Based on the available data, we hypothesize that people's hybrid immunity could be a major cause of the less severe third wave.

Assessment of the Humoral Immune Response Following COVID-19 Vaccination in Healthcare Workers: A One Year Longitudinal Study

The continuous variability of SARS-CoV-2 and the rapid waning of specific antibodies threatens the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. We aimed to evaluate antibody kinetics one year after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with an mRNA vaccine in healthcare workers (HCW), with or without a booster. A marked decline in anti-Spike(S)/Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) antibody levels was registered during the first eight months post-vaccination, followed by a transitory increase after the booster. At three months post-booster an increased antibody level was maintained only in HCW vaccinated after a prior infection, who also developed a higher and long-lasting level of anti-S IgA antibodies. Still, IgG anti-nucleocapsid (NCP) fades five months post-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Despite the decline in antibodies one-year post-vaccination, 68.2% of HCW preserved the neutralization capacity against the ancestral variant, with a decrease of only 17.08% in the neutralizing capacity against the Omicron variant. Nevertheless, breakthrough infections were present in 6.65% of all participants, without any correlation with the previous level of anti-S/RBD IgG. Protection against the ancestral and Omicron variants is maintained at least three months after a booster in HCW, possibly reflecting a continuous antigenic stimulation in the professional setting.

Functional Profiling of In Vitro Reactivated Memory B Cells Following Natural SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Gam-COVID-Vac Vaccination

Both SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination have previously been demonstrated to elicit robust, yet somewhat limited immunity against the evolving variants of SARS-CoV-2. Nevertheless, reports performing side-by-side comparison of immune responses following infection vs. vaccination have been relatively scarce. The aim of this study was to compare B-cell response to adenovirus-vectored vaccination in SARS-CoV-2-naive individuals with that observed in the COVID-19 convalescent patients six months after the first encounter with the viral antigens. We set out to use a single analytical platform and performed comprehensive analysis of serum levels of receptor binding domain (RBD)-specific and virus-neutralizing antibodies, frequencies of RBD-binding circulating memory B cells (MBCs), MBC-derived antibody-secreting cells, as well as RBD-specific and virus-neutralizing activity of MBC-derived antibodies after Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V) vaccination and/or natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, natural immunity was superior to Gam-COVID-Vac vaccination. The levels of neutralizing MBC-derived antibodies in the convalescent patients turned out to be significantly higher than those found following vaccination. Our results suggest that after six months, SARS-CoV-2-specific MBC immunity is more robust in COVID-19 convalescent patients than in Gam-COVID-Vac recipients. Collectively, our data unambiguously indicate that natural immunity outperforms Gam-COVID-Vac-induced immunity six months following recovery/vaccination, which should inform healthcare and vaccination decisions.

SARS CoV-2 reinfection rate is higher in the Omicron variant than in the Alpha and Delta variants

Background and objectives

Many mutations in variants for instance Delta and Alpha are associated with immune evasion and higher infectious potential. There are uncertainties regarding Omicron. In this regard, we aimed to compare the frequency of reinfection of SARS CoV-2 variants in our hospital between April 22, 2021 and January 26, 2022.

Method

The reinfection rates and demographic characteristics of a total of 27,487 COVID-19 patients infected with different SARS CoV-2 variants were examined.

Results

Reinfection was found in 26 (0.46%) of 5554 Alpha, 209 (1.16%) of 17,941 Delta, and 520 (13.0%) of 3992 Omicron variants. A statistically significant difference was observed between the reinfection rates of the variants (p = 0.000). The mean reinfection days were calculated as 204.4 ± 51.1 in the Alpha variant, 291.2 ± 58.2 in the Delta variant, and 361.2 ± 131.6 in the Omicron variant (p = 0.000). It was observed that 16.5% of reinfection cases caught COVID-19 for the second time 3–6 months after the first COVID-19 infection, 36.7% after 6–12 months, and 46.8% after more than 12 months. There was a significant difference between the times in reinfection cases. Most reinfections occurred more than 12 months apart. Among those with a reinfection time > 12 months, 0% had Alpha, 3.4% had Delta, and 96.6% had Omicron variants.

Conclusion

The highest reinfection rate was observed in the Omicron variant. Reinfection was approximately 30 times more frequent in the Omicron variant than in the Alpha variant and 10 times more frequent in the Delta variant.

Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates

BACKGROUND

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred.

METHODS

We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate.

RESULTS

Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections: Overview of efficacy and duration of natural and hybrid immunity

Seroprevalence surveys suggest that more than a third and possibly more than half of the global population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by early 2022. As large numbers of people continue to be infected, the efficacy and duration of natural immunity in terms of protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfections and severe disease is of crucial significance for the future. This narrative review provides an overview on epidemiological studies addressing this issue. National surveys covering 2020-2021 documented that a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a significantly reduced risk of reinfections with efficacy lasting for at least one year and only relatively moderate waning immunity. Importantly, natural immunity showed roughly similar effect sizes regarding protection against reinfection across different SARS-CoV-2 variants, with the exception of the Omicron variant for which data are just emerging before final conclusions can be drawn. Risk of hospitalizations and deaths was also reduced in SARS-CoV-2 reinfections versus primary infections. Observational studies indicate that natural immunity may offer equal or greater protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to individuals receiving two doses of an mRNA vaccine, but data are not fully consistent. The combination of a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and a respective vaccination, termed hybrid immunity, seems to confer the greatest protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections, but several knowledge gaps remain regarding this issue. Natural immunity should be considered for public health policy regarding SARS-CoV-2.

The unnaturalistic fallacy: COVID-19 vaccine mandates should not discriminate against natural immunity

COVID-19 vaccine requirements have generated significant debate. Here, we argue that, on the evidence available, such policies should have recognised proof of natural immunity as a sufficient basis for exemption to vaccination requirements. We begin by distinguishing our argument from two implausible claims about natural immunity: (1) natural immunity is superior to 'artificial' vaccine-induced immunity simply because it is 'natural' and (2) it is better to acquire immunity through natural infection than via vaccination. We then briefly survey the evidence base for the comparison between naturally acquired immunity and vaccine-induced immunity. While we clearly cannot settle the scientific debates on this point, we suggest that we lack clear and convincing scientific evidence that vaccine-induced immunity has a significantly higher protective effect than natural immunity. Since vaccine requirements represent a substantial infringement of individual liberty, as well as imposing other significant costs, they can only be justified if they are necessary for achieving a proportionate public health benefit. Without compelling evidence for the superiority of vaccine-induced immunity, it cannot be deemed necessary to require vaccination for those with natural immunity. Subjecting them to vaccine mandates is therefore not justified. We conclude by defending the standard of proof that this argument from necessity invokes, and address other pragmatic and practical considerations that may speak against natural immunity exemptions.

Protective effect of a first SARS-CoV-2 infection from reinfection: a matched retrospective cohort study using PCR testing data in England

The duration of immunity after first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the extent to which prior immunity prevents reinfection is uncertain and remains an important question within the context of new variants. This is a retrospective population-based matched observational study where we identified the first polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive of primary SARS-CoV-2 infection case tests between 1 March 2020 and 30 September 2020. Each case was matched by age, sex, upper tier local authority of residence and testing route to one individual testing negative in the same week (controls) by PCR. After a 90-day pre-follow-up period for cases and controls, any subsequent positive tests up to 31 December 2020 and deaths within 28 days of testing positive were identified, this encompassed an essentially vaccine-free period. We used a conditional logistic regression to analyse the results. There were 517 870 individuals in the matched cohort with 2815 reinfection cases and 12 098 first infections. The protective effect of a prior SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episode was 78% (odds ratio (OR) 0.22, 0.21-0.23). Protection rose to 82% (OR 0.18, 0.17-0.19) after a sensitivity analysis excluded 933 individuals with a first test between March and May and a subsequent positive test between June and September 2020. Amongst individuals testing positive by PCR during follow-up, reinfection cases had 77% lower odds of symptoms at the second episode (adjusted OR 0.23, 0.20-0.26) and 45% lower odds of dying in the 28 days after reinfection (adjusted OR 0.55, 0.42-0.71). Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection offered protection against reinfection in this population. There was some evidence that reinfections increased with the alpha variant compared to the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant highlighting the importance of continued monitoring as new variants emerge.

The Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection in Persons With Naturally Acquired Immunity With and Without Subsequent Receipt of a Single Dose of BNT162b2 Vaccine : A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There is insufficient evidence regarding the magnitude and durability of protection conferred by a combined effect of naturally acquired immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine-induced immunity.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in previously infected persons to that of previously infected persons who subsequently received a single dose of BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study emulating a randomized controlled target trial through a series of nested trials.

SETTING

Nationally centralized database of Maccabi Healthcare Services, Israel.

PARTICIPANTS

Persons with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection who did not receive subsequent SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were compared with persons with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection who received a single dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine at least 3 months after infection.

INTERVENTION

Forty-one randomized controlled trials were emulated, in which 107 413 Maccabi Healthcare Services' members aged 16 years and older were eligible for at least 1 trial.

MEASUREMENTS

SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes of infection, symptomatic disease, hospitalization, and death, between 2 March and 13 December 2021.

RESULTS

A statistically significant decreased risk (hazard ratio, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.15 to 0.20]) for reinfection was found among persons who were previously infected and then vaccinated versus those who were previously infected but remained unvaccinated. In addition, there was a decreased risk for symptomatic disease (hazard ratio, 0.24 [CI, 0.20 to 0.29]) among previously infected and vaccinated persons compared with those who were not vaccinated after infection. No COVID-19-related mortality cases were found.

LIMITATION

Hybrid protection against non-Delta variants could not be inferred.

CONCLUSION

Persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 gained additional protection against reinfection and COVID-19 from a subsequent single dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Nonetheless, even without a subsequent vaccination, reinfection appeared relatively rare.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None.

Duration of Protection Against SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection and Associated Risk of Reinfection Assessed with Real-World Data

IMPORTANCE

Better understanding of the protective duration of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection against reinfection is needed.

OBJECTIVE

Primary: To assess the durability of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among initially unvaccinated individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Secondary: Evaluate the crude SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate and associated characteristics.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective observational study of HealthVerity data among 144,678,382 individuals, during the pandemic era through April 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals studied had SARS-CoV-2 molecular diagnostic or antibody index test results from February 29 through December 9, 2020, with ≥365 days of pre-index continuous closed medical enrollment, claims, or electronic health record activity.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Rates of reinfection among index-positive individuals were compared to rates of infection among index-negative individuals. Factors associated with reinfection were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. For both objectives, the outcome was a subsequent positive molecular diagnostic test result.

RESULTS

Among 22,786,982 individuals with index SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data (2,023,341 index positive), the crude rate of reinfection during follow-up was significantly lower (9.89/1,000-person years) than that of primary infection (78.39/1,000 person years). Consistent with prior findings, the risk of reinfection among index-positive individuals was 87% lower than the risk of infection among index-negative individuals (hazard ratio, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.13, 0.13). The cumulative incidence of reinfection among index-positive individuals and infection among index-negative individuals was 0.85% (95% CI: 0.82%, 0.88%) and 6.2% (95% CI: 6.1%, 6.3%), respectively, over follow-up of 375 days. The duration of protection against reinfection was stable over the median 5 months and up to 1-year follow-up interval. Factors associated with an increased reinfection risk included older age, comorbid immunologic conditions, and living in congregate care settings; healthcare workers had a decreased reinfection risk.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This large US population-based study demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is uncommon among individuals with laboratory evidence of a previous infection. Protection from SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is stable up to one year. Reinfection risk was primarily associated with age 85+ years, comorbid immunologic conditions and living in congregate care settings; healthcare workers demonstrated a decreased reinfection risk. These findings suggest that infection induced immunity is durable for variants circulating prior to Delta.

KEY POINTS

Question: How long does prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection?Finding: Among >22 million individuals tested February 2020 through April 2021, the relative risk of reinfection among those with prior infection was 87% lower than the risk of infection among individuals without prior infection. This protection was durable for up to a year. Factors associated with increased likelihood of reinfection included older age (85+ years), comorbid immunologic conditions, and living in congregate care settings; healthcare workers had lower risk.Meaning: Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provides a durable, high relative degree of protection against reinfection.

Public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States

BACKGROUND

As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US.

METHODS

A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes.

RESULTS

It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.