Seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality: are there high-risk groups? 25-year follow-up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study

Excess winter mortality in Finland, 1971-2019: a register-based study on long-term trends and effect modification by sociodemographic characteristics and pre-existing health conditions

OBJECTIVES

Excess winter mortality is a well-established phenomenon across the developed world. However, whether individual-level factors increase vulnerability to the effects of winter remains inadequately examined. Our aim was to assess long-term trends in excess winter mortality in Finland and estimate the modifying effect of sociodemographic and health characteristics on the risk of winter death.

DESIGN

Nationwide register study.

SETTING

Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

Population aged 60 years and over, resident in Finland, 1971-2019.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-adjusted winter and non-winter death rates, and winter-to-non-winter rate ratios and relative risks (multiplicative interaction effects between winter and modifying characteristics).

RESULTS

We found a decreasing trend in the relative winter excess mortality over five decades and a drop in the series around 2000. During 2000-2019, winter mortality rates for men and women were 11% and 14% higher than expected based on non-winter rates. The relative risk of winter death increased with age but did not vary by income. Compared with those living with at least one other person, individuals in institutions had a higher relative risk (1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08). Most pre-existing health conditions did not predict winter death, but persons with dementia emerged at greater relative risk (1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Although winter mortality seems to affect frail people more strongly-those of advanced age, living in institutions and with dementia-there is an increased risk even beyond the more vulnerable groups. Protection of high-risk groups should be complemented with population-level preventive measures.

Influenza activity and regional mortality for non-small cell lung cancer

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States and worldwide. While influenza illness is known to be particularly dangerous for frail and elderly patients, the relationship between influenza illness and outcomes in patients with cancer remains largely unknown. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried to identify patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnosed between 2009 and 2015. Influenza-like illness (ILI) activity, provided by the Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network of the Center of Disease for Control and Prevention, was merged with the SEER dataset on the state-month level. Regional monthly mortality rates were compared during low versus high flu months in this ecological cohort study. 202,485 patients with NSCLC from 13 SEER-reporting states were included in the analysis. 53 of 1049 state-months (5.1%) had high flu activity. Monthly mortality rates during low and high flu months were 0.041 (95% CI 0.041-0.042) and 0.051 (95% CI 0.050-0.053), respectively (RR 1.24 [95% CI 1.21-1.27]). The association between ILI activity and mortality was observed at the individual state level and in all clinical and regional subgroups. Increased regional influenza activity is associated with higher mortality rates for patients with NSCLC. Vaccine-directed initiatives and increased awareness amongst providers will be necessary to address the growing but potentially preventable burden of influenza-related lung cancer deaths in the U.S.

Associations of indoor and outdoor temperatures and their difference with home blood pressure: The Masuda Study

Ambient temperature and blood pressure (BP) are closely related; however, few studies have examined the association of out-of-office BP with indoor or outdoor temperature. The effect of the difference between indoor and outdoor temperatures on BP also remains unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association of indoor and outdoor temperatures and their difference with home BP. We studied healthy 352 participants (mean age, 49.8 years; 46.0% women) from a population-based cohort using 2-year data on temperature and self-measured home BP. We measured home BP and indoor temperature at the same time in the morning and evening every day. Outdoor temperature during the same period was based on national data. We observed 82,900 home BP measurements in the morning and 66,420 in the evening. In the mixed-effects model adjusted for age, sex, and possible confounders, indoor temperature was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic BP in the morning and evening. A 1 °C increase in indoor temperature reduced systolic and diastolic BP by 0.37 and 0.22 mmHg, respectively, in the morning and by 0.45 and 0.30 mmHg, respectively, in the evening (all P-values<0.001). The magnitude of associations was stronger for indoor than outdoor temperature. Similarly, a 1 °C increase in indoor temperature above outdoor temperature decreased systolic and diastolic BP by 0.33 and 0.12 mmHg, respectively, in the morning and by 0.45 and 0.26 mmHg, respectively, in the evening independent of outdoor temperature (all P-values <0.001). In conclusion, controlling indoor temperature is important to stabilize home BP levels.

Temperature, cardiovascular mortality, and the role of hypertension and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis in seasonal adversity: a narrative review

Environmental temperature is now well known to have a U-shaped relationship with cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality. Both heat and cold above and below an optimum temperature, respectively, are associated with adverse outcomes. However, cold in general and moderate cold specifically is predominantly responsible for much of temperature-attributable adversity. Importantly, hypertension-the most important CV risk factor-has seasonal variation such that BP is significantly higher in winter. Besides worsening BP control in established hypertensives, cold-induced BP increase also contributes to long-term BP variability among normotensive and pre-hypertensive patients, also a known CV risk factor. Disappointingly, despite the now well-stablished impact of temperature on BP and on CV mortality separately, direct linkage between seasonal BP change and CV outcomes remains preliminary. Proving or disproving this link is of immense clinical and public health importance because if seasonal BP variation contributes to seasonal adversity, this should be a modifiable risk. Mechanistically, existing evidence strongly suggests a central role of the sympathetic nervous system (SNS), and secondarily, the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis (RAAS) in mediating cold-induced BP increase. Though numerous other inflammatory, metabolic, and vascular perturbations likely also contribute, these may also well be secondary to cold-induced SNS/RAAS activation. This review aims to summarize the current evidence linking temperature, BP and CV outcomes. We also examine underlying mechanisms especially in regard to the SNS/RAAS axis, and highlight possible mitigation measures for clinicians.

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

BACKGROUND

Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature.

METHODS

We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on location-specific characteristics from 719 locations in tropical, dry, temperate and continental climate zones. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate the amplitude of seasonal variation in mortality on a daily basis, defined as the peak-to-trough ratio (PTR) of maximum mortality estimates to minimum mortality estimates at day of year. Meta-analysis was used to summarize location-specific estimates for each climate zone. We estimated the PTR with and without temperature adjustment, with the differences representing the seasonal effect attributable to temperature. We also evaluated the effect of location-specific characteristics on the PTR across locations by using meta-regression models.

RESULTS

Seasonality estimates and responses to temperature adjustment varied across locations. The unadjusted PTR for all-cause mortality was 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.11] in the tropical zone and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.20-1.25) in the temperate zone; adjusting for temperature reduced the estimates to 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.12), respectively. Furthermore, the unadjusted PTR was positively associated with average mean temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that seasonality of mortality is importantly driven by temperature, most evidently in temperate/continental climate zones, and that warmer locations show stronger seasonal variations in mortality, which is related to a stronger effect of temperature.

Source profiling of air pollution and its association with acute respiratory infections in the Himalayan-bound region of India

The studies related to air pollutants and their association with human health over the mountainous region are of utmost importance and are sparse especially over the Himalayan region of India. The linkages between various atmospheric variables and clinically validated data have been done using various datasets procured from satellite, model reanalysis, and surface observations during 2013-2017. Aerosol optical depth, air temperature, and wind speed are significantly related (p < 0.001) to the incidence of acute respiratory infections with its peak during winter. Model-derived particulate matter (PM_2.5) shows high contributions of black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate during winter. The wind roses show the passage of winds from the south-west and southern side of the region. Back trajectory density plot along with bivariate polar plot analyses have shown that most of the winds coming from the western side are taking a southward direction before reaching the study area and may be bringing pollutants from the Indo-Gangetic Plain and other surrounding regions. Our study shows that the accumulation of pollutants in the Himalayan valley is owing to the meteorological stability with significant local emissions from burning of biomass and biofuels along with long-range and mid-range transport during the winter season that significantly correlated with the incidence of acute respiratory infections in the region.

The Circadian Rhythm of Thermoregulation Modulates both the Sleep/Wake Cycle and 24 h Pattern of Arterial Blood Pressure

Borbély proposed an interacting two-component model of sleep regulation comprising a homeostatic Process S and a circadian Process C. The model has provided understanding of the association between core body temperature (CBT) as a key element of Process C that is deterministic of sleep onset and offset. However, it additionally provides a new perspective of the importance of the thermoregulatory mechanisms of Process C in modulating the circadian rhythm of arterial blood pressure (ABP). Herein, we examine the circadian physiology of thermoregulation, including at the end of the activity span the profound redistribution of cardiac output from the systemic circulation to the arteriovenous anastomoses of the glabrous skin that markedly enhances convective transfer of heat from the body to the environment to cause (i) decrease of the CBT as a pathway to sleep onset and (ii) attenuation of the asleep ABP mean and augmentation of the ABP decline (dipping) from the wake-time mean, in combination the strongest predictors of the risk for blood vessel and organ pathology and morbid and mortal cardiovascular disease events. We additionally review the means by which blood perfusion to the glabrous skin can be manipulated on demand by selective thermal stimulation, that is, mild warming, on the skin of the cervical spinal cord to intensify Process C as a way to facilitate sleep induction and promote healthy asleep ABP. © 2021 American Physiological Society. Compr Physiol 11:1-14, 2021.

The “Inverse” Seasonal Blood Pressure Variability Phenotype

The seasonal blood pressure variability (BPV) is known to demonstrate a typical winter peak. Recently, more attention is paid to the opposite situation: the summer BP levels being higher than those in winter. This phenomenon is called inverse BPV. The present article summarizes recent data on this topic. The data of the HOMED-BP project, as well as the results of the original prospective study in 770 hypertensive patients from two Russian Federation regions (mean follow-up duration 6.4 years), were used. According to the preliminary knowledge, the prevalence of inverse BPV in hypertensive patients is relatively high (15-25%). This phenomenon is more typical for treated patients, particularly for those on combination therapy, and is associated with beta-blocker intake. Higher duration of hypertension and higher levels of some risk factors (smoking) characterize the patients with inverse BPV. According to the HOMED-BP data, patients with inverse BPV had the highest overall cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio in comparison with the reference group of “minimal” “normal” BPV was 3.07; p=0.004). In summary, inverse BPV is a potentially unfavorable BP phenotype. However, its reproducibility and prospective value deserve further investigation. The absolute magnitude of seasonal BPV in these patients, calculated using different BP measurement methods, warrants special attention.

Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics.

DESIGN

We conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations.

SETTING

47 prefectures in Japan PARTICIPANTS: Deaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude).

RESULTS

The nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.

Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

BACKGROUND

Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.

METHODS

Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.

RESULTS

The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

Effect of air temperature on human births, preterm births and births associated with maternal hypertension

OBJECTIVE

We studied potential effects of outdoor air temperatures or barometric pressure on births, preterm births and births associated with maternal hypertension.

METHODS

12,269 births were retrospectively reviewed in Brussel and 25,880 in South Reunion Island. National Belgium and French weather reference centers provided outdoor air temperatures and barometric pressures from the nearest weather stations on the corresponding birthdays. Poisson regression models were used to assess if outdoor air temperatures or barometric pressure could be correlated, immediately and several days later, with the number of daily births, preterm births and births associated with hypertension.

RESULTS

Outdoor air temperature was significantly correlated to the number of daily births in Brussels. For each additional degree Celsius, overall births increased by 0.4% during the same day. Four days later, overall births increased by 1.8%, preterm births by 2.6% and births associated with hypertension by 5.7%. Similar observations on numbers of daily births were reported in South Reunion Island, without reaching statistical significance (p = .08).

CONCLUSION

As previously demonstrated in recent studies, increased air temperature leads progressively to higher rates of births and preterm births. An even stronger delayed effect of air temperature was observed on births associated with hypertension. This would be worth further investigating.

A large decrease in the magnitude of seasonal fluctuations in mortality among elderly explains part of the increase in longevity in Sweden during 20th century

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates are known to depend on the seasons and, in temperate climates, rates are highest during winter. The magnitude of these seasonal fluctuations in mortality has decreased substantially in many countries during the 20th century, but the extent to which this decrease has contributed to the concurrent increase in life expectancy is not known. Here, I describe how the seasonality of all-cause mortality among people ages 60 years or more has changed in Sweden between 1860 and 1995, and investigate how this change has contributed to the increase in life expectancy observed during the same time period.

METHODS

Yearly sex-specific birth cohorts consisting of all people born in Sweden between 1800 and 1901 who reached at least 59 years of age were obtained from a genealogical database. The mortality rates for each cohort were modeled by an exponential function of age modulated by a sinusoidal function of time of year. The potential impact of seasonal fluctuations on life expectancy was investigated by a novel decomposition of the total mortality rate into a seasonal part and a part independent of the seasons. Cohort life expectancy at age 60 was used to quantify changes in lifespan during the time period.

RESULTS

The magnitude of seasonal fluctuations in mortality rates decreased substantially between 1860 and 1995. For cohorts born in 1800, the risk of dying during the winter season was almost twice that of dying during summer. For cohorts born in 1900, the relative increase in winter mortality was 10%. Cohort life expectancy at age 60 increased by 4.3 years for men and 6.8 years for women, and the decrease in seasonal mortality fluctuations accounted for approximately 40% of this increase in average lifespan.

CONCLUSION

By following a large number of extinct cohorts, it was possible to show how the decrease in seasonal fluctuations in mortality has contributed to an increase in life expectancy. The decomposition of total mortality introduced here might be useful to better understand the processes and mechanisms underlying the marked improvements in life expectancy seen over the last 150 years.

Seasonal variations in pancreatic surgery outcome A retrospective time-trend analysis of 2748 Whipple procedures

Background

Observing cyclic patterns in surgical outcome is a common experience. We aimed to measure this phenomenon and to hypothesize possible causes using the experience of a high-volume pancreatic surgery department.

Methods

Outcomes of 2748 patients who underwent a Whipple procedure at a single high-volume center from January 2000 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Three different hypotheses were tested: the effect of climate changes, the “July effect” and the effect of vacations.

Results

Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3 morbidity was similar during warm vs. cold months (22.5% vs. 19.8%, p = 0.104) and at the beginning of activity of new trainees vs. the rest of the year (23.5 vs. 22.5%, p = 0.757). Patients operated when a high percentage of staff is on vacation showed an increased Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3 morbidity (22.3 vs. 18.5%, p = 0.022), but similar mortality (2.3 vs. 1.8%, p = 0.553). The surgical waiting list was also significantly longer during these periods (37 vs. 27 days, p = 0.037). Being operated in such a period of the year was an independent predictor of severe morbidity (OR 1.271, CI 95% 1.086–1.638, p = 0.031).

Conclusion

Being operated when more staff is on vacation significantly affects severe morbidity rate. Future healthcare system policies should prevent the relative shortage of resources during these periods.

The association of outdoor temperature with blood pressure, and its influence on future cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk in cold areas

OBJECTIVES

To explore whether lower outdoor temperature increases cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk through regulating blood pressure and whether indoor heating in winter is beneficial to prevent cardio-cerebrovascular disease in cold areas.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 38 589 participants in Harbin from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) during 2004-2008, with an average of 7.14-year follow-up. Linear regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between outdoor temperature and blood pressure. Cox regression analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the association of blood pressure with cardio-cerebrovascular event risk. Mediation analysis was performed to explore the role of blood pressure in the association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular events risk.

RESULTS

There was an increase of 6.7 mmHg in SBP and 2.1 mmHg in DBP for each 10 °C decrease in outdoor temperature when outdoor temperature was higher than 5 °C. There was an inverse association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular event morbidity. The increases in blood pressure and cardio-cerebrovascular event morbidity were attenuated in months when central heating was fully provided. Participants with hypertension have higher risks of cardio-cerebrovascular disease (hazard ratio 1.347; 95% CI 1.281--1.415), CVD (hazard ratio 1.347; 95% CI 1.282--1.416), MACE (hazard ratio 1.670; 95% CI 1.560--1.788) and stroke (hazard ratio 1.683; 95% CI 1.571--1.803). Mediation analysis demonstrated that the association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular events risk was potentially mediated by blood pressure.

CONCLUSION

Temperature-driven blood pressure potentially mediates the association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular events risk. Indoor heating in winter is probably beneficial to cardio-cerebrovascular disease prevention by inhibition of blood pressure increase.

Seasonality of deaths with respect to age and cause in Chitral District Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Seasonal variability in mortality has been studied in various regions globally. Proper evaluation of seasonally fluctuating mortality is important to establish effective public health measures. We investigated the overall, age-specific, and cause-specific seasonality of deaths in Chitral District in Pakistan.

METHOD

Data on 2577 deaths were provided by the Agha Khan Health Support Program. Seasonal mortality patterns concerning age and causes were examined using the X-12 ARIMA pseudo-additive decomposition method.

RESULTS

Of the total deceased, 59.6% were males. The proportion of deceased males was significantly higher than the female (40.4%, p< 0.001). The average age at death was 57.7 years (SD = 28.7). On average, approximately 43 deaths occurred each month. More than 10% of the deaths occurred in children less than 5-years-of-age. Among all the causes of death, the most frequent was cardiovascular disease (n = 666, 25.8%) followed by respiratory disease (n = 482, 18.7%). Significant seasonality in the overall deaths was evident, with a peak in winter. Deaths in people ≥ 55-years-of-age were significantly seasonal and peaked in winter. Deaths due to cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney related diseases were also significantly seasonal with winter peaks. Further, deaths due to external causes were significantly seasonal with summer peak.

CONCLUSION

In the winter season, all-cause, except external, and age-specific mortality peaks in Chitral District, Pakistan. Deaths due to external causes and cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney related diseases were significant seasonal effects.

What Are the Net Benefits of Reducing the Ozone Standard to 65 ppb? An Alternative Analysis

In October 2015, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lowered the level of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) from 0.075 ppm to 0.070 ppm (annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-h concentration, averaged over three years). The EPA estimated a 2025 annual national non-California net benefit of $1.5 to $4.5 billion (2011$, 7% discount rate) for a 0.070 ppm standard, and a −$1.0 to $14 billion net benefit for an alternative 0.065 ppm standard. The purpose of this work is to present a combined toxicological and economic assessment of the EPA’s benefit-cost analysis of the 2015 ozone NAAQS. Assessing the quality of the epidemiology studies based on considerations of bias, confounding, chance, integration of evidence, and application of the studies for future population risk estimates, we derived several alternative benefits estimates. We also considered the strengths and weaknesses of the EPA’s cost estimates (e.g., marginal abatement costs), as well as estimates completed by other authors, and provided our own alternative cost estimate. Based on our alternative benefits and cost calculations, we estimated an alternative net benefit of between −$0.3 and $1.8 billion for a 0.070 ppm standard (2011 $, 7% discount rate) and between −$23 and −$17 billion for a 0.065 ppm standard. This work demonstrates that alternative reasonable assumptions can generate very difference cost and benefits estimates that may impact how policy makers view the outcomes of a major rule.

Seasonality of Insulin Resistance, Glucose, and Insulin Among Middle-Aged and Elderly Population: The Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT

There are discrepancies in the seasonality of insulin resistance (IR) across the literature, probably due to age-related differences in the seasonality of lifestyle factors and thermoregulation mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the seasonality of IR according to the homeostatic model assessment-IR (HOMA-IR), glucose, and insulin levels and to examine the role of lifestyle markers [body mass index (BMI) and physical activity] and meteorological factors, according to age.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Seasonality was examined using cosinor analysis among middle-aged (45 to 65 years) and elderly (≥65 years) participants of a population-based Dutch cohort. We analyzed 13,622 observations from 8979 participants (57.6% women) without diagnosis of diabetes and fasting glucose <7 mmol/L. BMI was measured, physical activity was evaluated using a validated questionnaire, and meteorological factors (daily mean ambient temperature, mean relative humidity, total sunlight hours, and total precipitation) were obtained from local records. Seasonality estimates were adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

Among the middle-aged participants, seasonal variation estimates were: 0.11 units (95% confidence interval: 0.03, 0.20) for HOMA-IR, 0.28 µIU/mL (-0.05, 0.69) for insulin, and 0.05 mmol/L (0.01, 0.09) for glucose. These had a summer peak, and lifestyle markers explained the pattern. Among the elderly, seasonal variations were: 0.29 units (0.21, 0.37) for HOMA-IR, 0.96 µIU/mL (0.58, 1.28) for insulin, and 0.01 mmol/L (-0.01, 0.05) for glucose. These had a winter peak and ambient temperature explained the pattern.

CONCLUSION

Impaired thermoregulation mechanisms could explain the winter peak of IR among elderly people without diabetes. The seasonality of lifestyle factors may explain the seasonality of glucose.

Seasonal variation in home blood pressure: findings from nationwide web-based monitoring in Japan

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to assess seasonal variation in home blood pressure (BP) among free-living nationwide participants using home BP values accumulated from a web-based healthcare platform established in Japan.

SETTINGS

An observational study. OMRON Healthcare Co., Ltd. has been developing web-based personal healthcare record systems in Japan since November 2010; over two million voluntary participants had joined this platform in September 2015. Nationwide home BP measurements made by oscillometric-type electronic sphygmomanometers from over 110 000 voluntary participants have been transmitted to the system from devices.

PARTICIPANTS

Seasonal variation in home BP was evaluated among 64 536 (51 335 men, 13 201 women; mean age 52.9 years) free-living nationwide users for whom data were automatically and simultaneously transmitted to the system from devices.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Mean monthly and weekly home BP.

RESULTS

In multiple regression analysis, the relationship between BP and temperature was a significant inverse association, independent of age, gender and geological locations. Highest and lowest BP was observed in December and July, respectively. Substantial seasonal differences in the mean values of morning and evening home systolic BP between summer and winter were 6.2 mmHg and 5.5 mmHg in men, and 7.3 mmHg and 6.5 mmHg in women. Seasonal variation was a little greater in older (7.3 mmHg in men, 8.7 mmHg in women) than in younger individuals (5.8 mmHg in men, 6.5 mmHg in women). BP from February to July was approximately 1.5 mmHg lower than the value from August to December.

CONCLUSIONS

A web-based healthcare platform has enabled easier monitoring of population-wide BP. Tighter BP control is necessary in winter than in summer, and especially in a colder climate toward winter than toward summer. New technologies using web-based self-monitoring systems for health-related indexes are expected to initiate a new phase of cardiovascular disease prevention and public health promotion.

The contributions of family care-givers at end of life: A national post-bereavement census survey of cancer carers' hours of care and expenditures

BACKGROUND

Family members provide vital care at end of life, enabling patients to remain at home. Such informal care contributes significantly to the economy while supporting patients' preferences and government policy. However, the value of care-givers' contributions is often underestimated or overlooked in evaluations. Without information on the activities and expenditures involved in informal care-giving, it is impossible to provide an accurate assessment of carers' contribution to end-of-life care.

AIM

The aim of this study was to investigate the contributions and expenditure of informal, family care-giving in end-of-life cancer care.

DESIGN

A national census survey of English cancer carers was conducted. Survey packs were mailed to 5271 people who registered the death of a relative to cancer during 1-16 May 2015. Data were collected on decedents' health and situation, care support given, financial expenditure resulting from care, carer well-being and general background information.

RESULTS

In all, 1504 completed surveys were returned (28.5%). Over 90% of respondents reported spending time on care-giving in the last 3 months of the decedent's life, contributing a median 69 h 30 min of care-giving each week. Those who reported details of expenditure (72.5%) spent a median £370 in the last 3 months of the decedent's life.

CONCLUSION

Carers contribute a great deal of time and money for day-to-day support and care of patients. This study has yielded a unique, population-level data set of end-of-life care-giving and future analyses will provide estimates of the economic value of family care-givers' contributions.

Seasonal Variation in Mortality, Medical Care Expenditure and Institutionalization in Older People: Evidence from a Dutch Cohort of Older Health Insurance Clients

Background

The mortality rates of older people changes with the seasons. However, it has not been properly investigated whether the seasons affect medical care expenditure (MCE) and institutionalization. Seasonal variation in MCE is plausible, as MCE rises exponentially before death. It is therefore important to investigate the impact of the seasons on MCE both mediated and unmediated by mortality.

Methods

Data on mortality, MCE and institutionalization from people aged 65 and older in a region in the Netherlands from July 2007 through 2010 were retrieved from a regional health care insurer and were linked with data from the Netherlands Institute for Social Research, and Statistics Netherlands (n = 61,495). The Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method was used to divide mortality rates, MCE, and institutionalization rates into a long-term trend, seasonal variation, and remaining variation. For every season we calculated the 95% confidence interval compared to the long-term trend using Welch’s t-test.

Results

The mortality rates of older people differ significantly between the seasons, and are 21% higher in the winter compared to the summer. MCE rises with 13% from the summer to the winter; this seasonal difference is higher for the non-deceased than for the deceased group (14% vs. 6%). Seasonal variation in mortality is more pronounced in men and people in residential care. Seasonal variation in MCE is more pronounced in women. Institutionalization rates are significantly higher in the winter, but the other seasons show no significant impact.

Conclusions

Seasonal changes affect mortality and the level of MCE of older people; institutionalization rates peak in the winter. Seasonal variation in MCE exists independently from patterns in mortality. Seasonal variation in mortality is similar for both institutionalized and community-dwelling elderly. Policy-makers, epidemiologists and health economists are urged to acknowledge and include the impact of the seasons in future policy and research.

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

Outdoor temperature, blood pressure, and cardiovascular disease mortality among 23 000 individuals with diagnosed cardiovascular diseases from China

Introduction

Blood pressure is a major cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and both may increase as outdoor temperatures fall. However, there are still limited data about seasonal variation in blood pressure and CVD mortality among patients with prior-CVD.

Methods

We analysed data on 23 000 individuals with prior-CVD who were recruited from 10 diverse regions into the China Kadoorie Biobank during 2004–8. After 7 years of follow-up, 1484 CVD deaths were recorded. Baseline survey data were used to assess seasonal variation in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and its association with outdoor temperature. Cox regression was used to examine the association of usual SBP with subsequent CVD mortality, and seasonal variation in CVD mortality was assessed by Poisson regression. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and region.

Results

Mean SBP was significantly higher in winter than in summer (145 vs. 136 mmHg, P < 0.001), especially among those without central heating. Above 5°C, each 10°C lower outdoor temperature was associated with 6.2 mmHg higher SBP. Systolic blood pressure predicted subsequent CVD mortality, with each 10 mmHg higher usual SBP associated with 21% (95% confidence interval: 16–27%) increased risk. Cardiovascular disease mortality varied by season, with 41% (21–63%) higher risk in winter compared with summer.

Conclusion

Among adult Chinese with prior-CVD, there is both increased blood pressure and CVD mortality in winter. Careful monitoring and more aggressive blood pressure lowering treatment in the cold months are needed to help reduce the winter excess CVD mortality in high-risk individuals.

Seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in rural Ghana

BACKGROUND

Mortality in tropical countries varies considerably from season to season. As many of these countries have seen mortality moving from child to old-age mortality, we have studied seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in a rural area in Ghana that currently undergoes an epidemiologic transition.

METHODS

In an annual survey from 2002 through to 2011, we followed 29 642 individuals and obtained the cause and month of death from 1406 deceased individuals by making use of verbal autopsies.

RESULTS

When comparing the seasons, we observed a trend for higher mortality during the wet season. When comparing separate months, we observed 34% more deaths than expected in September (95% CI 1.04-1.69; p = 0.024) at the end of the wet season and 43% more deaths in April (95% CI 1.13-1.80; p = 0.004) at the end of the dry season, while there were 42% less deaths than expected in December (95% CI 0.52-0.70; p = 0.003), shortly after the wet season. Cause-specific analysis indicated that the peak at the end of the wet season was due to excess mortality from infectious diseases in children and older people alike, whereas the peak in old-age mortality at the end of the dry season was due to non-infectious causes in older people only.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our data suggest that during the epidemiologic transition, mortality not only shifts from child to old-age and from infectious to non-infectious, but also from the wet to the dry season.

The impact of academic calendar cycle on coronary artery bypass outcomes: a comparison of teaching and non-teaching hospitals

Background

The commencement of new academic cycle in July is presumed to be associated with poor patient outcomes, although supportive evidence is limited for cardiac surgery patients. We sought to determine if the new academic cycle affected the outcomes of patients undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on 10-year nationwide in-hospital data from 1998–2007. Only patients who underwent CABG in the first and final academic 3-month calendar quarter were included. Generalized multivariate regression was used to assess indicators of hospital quality of care such as risk-adjusted mortality, total complications and “failure to rescue“ (FTOR) - defined as death after a complication.

Results

Of the 1,056,865 CABG operations performed in the selected calendar quarters, 698,942 were at teaching hospitals. The risk-adjusted mortality, complications and FTOR were higher in the beginning of the academic year [Odds ratio = 1.14, 1.04 and 1.19 respectively; p < 0.001 for all] irrespective of teaching status. However, teaching status was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.9) despite a higher complication rate (OR 1.02); [p < 0.05 for both]. The July Effect thus contributed to only a 2.4% higher FTOR in teaching hospitals compared to 19% in non teaching hospitals.

Conclusions

The July Effect is reflective of an overall increase in morbidity in all hospitals at the beginning of the academic cycle and it had a pronounced effect in non-teaching hospitals. Teaching hospitals were associated with lower mortality despite higher complication rates in the beginning of the academic cycle compared to non-teaching hospitals. The July effect thus cannot be attributed to presence of trainees alone.

Ultramini abstract

This study compares the July effect in teaching and non-teaching hospitals and demonstrates that this effect is not unique to teaching hospitals for CABG patients. In fact, teaching hospitals have somewhat better outcomes at the beginning of the academic cycle and the July effect is a much broader seasonal variation.

Blood pressure response to patterns of weather fluctuations and effect on mortality

Very few studies have looked at longitudinal intraindividual blood pressure responses to weather conditions. There are no data to suggest that specific response to changes in weather will have an impact on survival. We analyzed >169 000 clinic visits of 16 010 Glasgow Blood Pressure Clinic patients with hypertension. Each clinic visit was mapped to the mean West of Scotland monthly weather (temperature, sunshine, rainfall) data. Percentage change in blood pressure was calculated between pairs of consecutive clinic visits, where the weather alternated between 2 extreme quartiles (Q(1)-Q(4) or Q(4)-Q(1)) or remained in the same quartile (Q(n)-Q(n)) of each weather parameter. Subjects were also categorized into 2 groups depending on whether their blood pressure response in Q(1)-Q(4) or Q(4)-Q(1) were concordant or discordant to Q(n)-Q(n). Generalized estimating equations and Cox proportional hazards model were used to model the effect on longitudinal blood pressure and mortality, respectively. Q(n)-Q(n) showed a mean 2% drop in blood pressure consistently, whereas Q(4)-Q(1) showed a mean 2.1% and 1.6% rise in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. However, Q(1)-Q(4) did not show significant changes in blood pressure. Temperature-sensitive subjects had significantly higher mortality (1.35 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.71]; P=0.01) and higher follow-up systolic blood pressure (1.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.24-3.46]; P=0.02) compared with temperature-nonsensitive subjects. Blood pressure response to temperature may be one of the underlying mechanisms that determine long-term blood pressure variability. Knowing a patient's blood pressure response to weather can help reduce unnecessary antihypertensive treatment modification, which may in turn increase blood pressure variability and, thus, risk.

Disease risk score as a confounder summary method: systematic review and recommendations

PURPOSE

To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method.

METHODS

We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000).

RESULTS

Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%).

CONCLUSION

Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies.

Association of monthly frequencies of diverse diseases in the calls to the public emergency service of the city of Buenos Aires during 1999-2004 with meteorological variables and seasons

This work aims to study associations between monthly averages of meteorological variables and monthly frequencies of diverse diseases in the calls to the public ambulance emergency service of the city of Buenos Aires during the years 1999-2004. Throughout this time period no changes were made in the classification codes of the illnesses. Heart disease, arrhythmia, heart failure, cardiopulmonary arrest, angina pectoris, psychiatric diseases, stroke, transient ischemic attack, syncope and the total number of calls were analyzed against 11 weather variables and the four seasons. All illnesses exhibited some seasonal behavior, except cardiorespiratory arrest and angina pectoris. The largest frequencies of illnesses that exhibited some association with the meteorological variables used to occur in winter, except the psychiatric cases. Heart failure, stroke, psychiatric diseases and the total number of calls showed significant correlations with the 11 meteorological variables considered, and the largest indices (absolute values above 0.6) were found for the former two pathologies. On the other side, cardiorespiratory arrest and angina pectoris revealed no significant correlations and nearly null indices. Variables associated with temperature were the meteorological proxies with the largest correlations against diseases. Pressure and humidity mostly exhibited positive correlations, which is the opposite of variables related to temperature. Contrary to all other diseases, psychiatric pathologies showed a clear predominance of positive correlations. Finally, the association degree of the medical dataset with recurrent patterns was further evaluated through Fourier analysis, to assess the presence of statistically significant behavior. In the Northern Hemisphere high morbidity and mortality rates in December are usually assigned to diverse factors in relation to the holidays, but such an effect is not observed in the present analysis. There seems to be no clearly preferred meteorological proxy among the different types of temperatures used. It is shown that the amount of occurrences depends mainly on season rather on its strength quantified by temperature.

Mortality attributable to 9 common infections: significant effect of influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus, influenza B, norovirus, and parainfluenza in elderly persons

BACKGROUND

Because there may be substantial hidden mortality caused by common seasonal pathogens, we estimated the number of deaths in elderly persons attributable to viruses and bacteria for which robust weekly laboratory surveillance data were available.

METHODS

On weekly time series (1999-2007) we used regression models to associate total death counts in individuals aged 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years (a population of 2.5 million) with pathogen circulation-influenza A (season-specific), influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza, enterovirus, rotavirus, norovirus, Campylobacter, and Salmonella-adjusted for extreme outdoor temperatures.

RESULTS

Influenza A and RSV were significantly (P < .05) associated with mortality in all studied age groups; influenza B and parainfluenza were additionally associated in those aged ≥75 years, and norovirus was additionally associated in those aged ≥85 years. The proportions of deaths attributable to seasonal viruses were 6.8% (≥85 years), 4.4% (75-84 years), and 1.4% (65-74 years), but with great variations between years. Influenza occasionally showed lower impact than some of the other viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of different pathogens associated with mortality in the older population increases with increasing age. Besides influenza A and RSV, influenza B, parainfluenza and norovirus may also contribute substantially to elderly mortality.

Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003

Studies on temperature-mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975-1989 and 1990-2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly (p < 0.05) with respect to the mean for the study period. A cold-related mortality trigger threshold of -3°C was obtained for Ciudad Real for the period 1990-2003. The significant number of lags (p < 0.05) in the CCFs declined every 10 years in Toledo (5-2-0), Cuenca (4-2-0), Albacete (4-3-0) and Ciudad Real (3-2-1). This meant that, while the trend in cold-related mortality trigger thresholds in the region could not be ascertained, it was possible to establish a reduction in the lagged effects of cold on mortality, attributable to the improvement in socio-economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.

Recent heavy alcohol consumption at death certified as ischaemic heart disease: correcting mortality data from Kaunas (Lithuania)

AIMS

To assess the proportion of deaths assigned to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) which in fact were caused by the toxic effects of alcohol, and how this may affect the official statistics of mortality from IHD in Lithuania.

METHODS

Using the IHD register in Kaunas, Lithuania, and verifying underlying causes of death using standard international methodology, 3061 cases were found in Kaunas city who had died from IHD at age 25-64 during 1993-2007. Out-of-hospital sudden deaths accounted for 2467 cases (81%), including 1498 where forensic autopsy was conducted and post-mortem concentration of alcohol in blood and urine was available.

RESULTS

In total, 78.4% of all initial IHD diagnoses were verified, while in 8.7% of deaths the underlying cause of death was corrected into an alcohol-related cause and in 12.9% to other diseases. Alcohol was found in about half (50.3%) of out-of-hospital death cases subjected to autopsy. In 18.0% of cases, the alcohol concentration was 3.5% or higher. Alcohol was more likely to be present in winter months and at weekends.

CONCLUSION

A significant number of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania were misclassified as coronary deaths, accounting for almost one-tenth of officially registered deaths from IHD in ages 25-64. A high prevalence of positive post-mortem blood or urine alcohol tests suggests that the proportion of alcohol-related deaths among out-of-hospital IHD deaths may be actually even higher. A similar situation may be present in some other countries where high levels of alcohol consumption and binge drinking patterns are observed.

Conventional and advanced time series estimation: application to the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database, 1993-2006

RATIONALE

Time series analysis has seen limited application in the biomedical Literature. The utility of conventional and advanced time series estimators was explored for intensive care unit (ICU) outcome series.

METHODS

Monthly mean time series, 1993-2006, for hospital mortality, severity-of-illness score (APACHE III), ventilation fraction and patient type (medical and surgical), were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Analyses encompassed geographical seasonal mortality patterns, series structural time changes, mortality series volatility using autoregressive moving average and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models in which predicted variances are updated adaptively, and bivariate and multivariate (vector error correction models) cointegrating relationships between series.

RESULTS

The mortality series exhibited marked seasonality, declining mortality trend and substantial autocorrelation beyond 24 lags. Mortality increased in winter months (July-August); the medical series featured annual cycling, whereas the surgical demonstrated long and short (3-4 months) cycling. Series structural breaks were apparent in January 1995 and December 2002. The covariance stationary first-differenced mortality series was consistent with a seasonal autoregressive moving average process; the observed conditional-variance volatility (1993-1995) and residual Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects entailed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, preferred by information criterion and mean model forecast performance. Bivariate cointegration, indicating long-term equilibrium relationships, was established between mortality and severity-of-illness scores at the database level and for categories of ICUs. Multivariate cointegration was demonstrated for {log APACHE III score, log ICU length of stay, ICU mortality and ventilation fraction}.

CONCLUSIONS

A system approach to understanding series time-dependence may be established using conventional and advanced econometric time series estimators.

The snow-shoveler's ST elevation myocardial infarction

Heavy snowfall, cold temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure during the winter months have been associated with increased adverse cardiovascular events. However, only a few cases of the "snow shoveler's infarction" have been reported. The investigators describe their experience with 6 patients presenting with ST elevation myocardial infarctions, all within a 24-hour period during an unprecedented snowfall (4 of whom were shoveling snow), and provide a detailed review of previously reported cases of snow shoveler's infarction. Consistent with other reports, most patients reported here had the traditional cardiac risk factors of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, tobacco use, and sedentary lifestyle. Unique to this case series, however, was that the 4 patients who had histories of coronary artery disease and previous coronary artery stenting all presented with subacute stent thromboses documented on coronary angiography performed emergently. Moreover, these patients constituted 25% of all subacute stent thromboses diagnosed in the cardiac catheterization laboratory in the preceding 12 months. In conclusion, these findings suggest that in typically sedentary individuals with cardiac risk factors or histories of coronary artery disease, snow shoveling may trigger ST elevation myocardial infarction and therefore should be avoided. This may be most critical in patients with histories of coronary stent placement, considering that these findings suggest that snow shoveling may precipitate subacute stent thrombosis.

Human mortality seasonality in Castile-León, Spain, between 1980 and 1998: the influence of temperature, pressure and humidity

This study was carried out in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain, from 1980 to 1998 and analyzes the relationship between the number of monthly deaths caused by cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases and three meteorological variables: temperature, pressure and humidity. One of the innovations in this study is the application of principal component analysis in a way that differs from its usual application: one single series representing the whole region was constructed for each meteorological variable from the series of eight weather stations. Annual and seasonal mortality trends were also studied. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Castile and Leon. The mortality related to cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems shows a statistically significant rising trend across the study period (an annual increase of 6, 16 and 4 per thousand, respectively). The pressure at which mortality is lowest is approximately the same for all causes of death (about 915 hPa), but temperature values vary greatly (16.8-19.7 degrees C for the mean, 10.9-18.1 degrees C for the minimum, and 24.1-27.2 degrees C for the maximum temperature). The most comfortable temperatures for patients with cardiovascular diseases (16.8 degrees C) are apparently lower than those for patients with respiratory diseases (18.1 degrees C), which are, in turn, lower than in the case of diseases of the digestive system (19.7 degrees C). Finally, the optimal humidity for patients with respiratory diseases is the lowest (24%) among the diseases, and the highest (51%) corresponds to diseases of the digestive system, while the optimal relative humidity for the cardiovascular system is 45%.

Summer temperature-related mortality: effect modification by previous winter mortality

BACKGROUND

Several studies have described seasonal patterns of mortality, with rates higher in winter and lower in summer. Few researchers, however, have analyzed how the mortality rate in winter may influence the temperature-mortality association in the following summer. In the present paper, we addressed the question of whether the association between summer temperature and mortality among the elderly is modified by the previous winter mortality rate.

METHODS

We selected all deaths in Rome during 1987-2005 among persons 65 years old or older. We collected data on daily mean temperature and humidity. We estimated the effect of summer apparent temperature on mortality by using a time-series approach, and tested the effect modification based on the mortality rate during the preceding winter.

RESULTS

The effect of summer apparent temperature on mortality was stronger in years characterized by low mortality in the previous winter (relative risk for days at 30 degrees C vs. days at 20 degrees C = 1.73 [95% confidence interval = 1.50-2.01]), as contrasted with years with medium (1.32 [1.25-1.41]) or high winter mortality (1.34 [1.17-1.55]). The percentages of attributable risks for summer heat were 28%, 18%, and 18% for years characterized by low, medium, or high winter mortality rates respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-mortality winters may inflate the pool of the elderly susceptible population at risk for dying from high temperature the following summer.

Circadian Variation in Stroke Onset: Identical Temporal Pattern in Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Events

Stroke is the culmination of a heterogeneous group of cerebrovascular diseases that is manifested as ischemia or hemorrhage of one or more blood vessels of the brain. The occurrence of many acute cardiovascular events--such as myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, pulmonary embolism, critical limb ischemia, and aortic aneurysm rupture--exhibits prominent 24 h patterning, with a major morning peak and secondary early evening peak. The incidence of stroke exhibits the same 24 h pattern. Although ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes are different entities and are characterized by different pathophysiological mechanisms, they share an identical double-peak 24 h pattern. A constellation of endogenous circadian rhythms and exogenous cyclic factors are involved. The staging of the circadian rhythms in vascular tone, coagulative balance, and blood pressure plus temporal patterns in posture, physical activity, emotional stress, and medication effects play central and/or triggering roles. Features of the circadian rhythm of blood pressure, in terms of their chronic and acute effects on cerebral vessels, and of coagulation are especially important. Clinical medicine has been most concerned with the prevention of stroke in the morning, when population-based studies show it is of greatest risk during the 24 h; however, improved protection of at-risk patients against stroke in the early evening, the second most vulnerable time of cerebrovascular accidents, has received relatively little attention thus far.

Are fuel poverty reduction schemes associated with decreased excess winter mortality in elders? A case study from London, U.K

The London Borough of Newham, London piloted the Warm Zone, a government-led fuel poverty reduction scheme. Fuel poverty is often cited as a factor in excess winter mortality (EWM) in the U.K. This study reported in this paper assessed whether EWM decreased for people aged > or =65 years in Newham as compared to all London, employing data from before and throughout the duration of the Warm Zone project. The paper also discusses the difficulties surrounding the measurement and interpretation of health impact relating to fuel poverty. We calculated and compared the yearly EWM indices for people aged > or =65 years for all of London, and for Newham over 12 years (1993-2005). The yearly EWM ratio for Newham in relation to all London was then calculated and compared. No definitive evidence to support the effect of the War Zone on EMW were noted. Relationships between EWM and fewer poverty reduction schemes are difficult to interpret, as many factors are entangled. These include cold strain and biological, genetic, gender, physiological, thermoregulation, environmental, meteorological, socio-economic, healthcare provision/expenditure, lifestyle and co-morbidity aspects, besides the challenges of sample sizes and whether other fuel poverty reduction schemes were simultaneously in operation. Those in privately owned housing might be ;masked' (underestimated) in their vulnerability to fuel poverty. Redefining the specific criteria for eligibility for fuel poverty grants and tackling heat inefficiency in privately owned homes not eligible for home heating improvement despite fulfilling other criteria for vulnerability requires attention. The implications are discussed.

Modulation models for seasonal time series and incidence tables

We model monthly disease counts on an age-time grid using the two-dimensional varying-coefficient Poisson regression. Since the marginal profile of counts shows a very strong and varying annual cycle, sine and cosine regressors model periodicity, but their coefficients are allowed to vary smoothly over the age and time plane. The coefficient surfaces are estimated using a relatively large tensor product B-spline basis. Smoothness is tuned using difference penalties on the rows and columns of the tensor product coefficients. Heavy over-dispersion occurs, making it impossible to use Akaike's information criterion or Bayesian information criterion based on a Poisson likelihood. It is handled by selective weighting of part of the data and by the use of extended quasi-likelihood. Very efficient computation is achieved with fast array algorithms. The model is applied to monthly deaths due to respiratory diseases, for U.S. females during 1959-1998 and for ages 51-100.

The July effect and cardiac surgery: the effect of the beginning of the academic cycle on outcomes

BACKGROUND

The effect of the time of the academic year on cardiac surgical outcomes is unknown.

METHODS

Using prospectively collected data, we identified all (n = 1,673) cardiac surgical procedures performed at our institution between October 1997 and April 2007. Morbidity and mortality rates were compared between 2 periods of the academic year, one early (July 1-August 31, n = 242) and one later in the year (September 1-June 30, n = 1,431). A prediction model was constructed by using stepwise logistic regression modeling.

RESULTS

Morbidity rates did not differ significantly between the early (12.8%) and later periods (15.4%) (odds ratio [OR], 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-1.28; P = 0.3). Additionally, there was no significant difference in operative mortality between the early (1.2%) and later periods (3.5%) (OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.07-1.19; P = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

The early and later parts of the academic year were associated with similar risk-adjusted outcomes. Further studies are needed to determine whether our findings are applicable to other academic cardiac centers.

Validation of syndromic surveillance for respiratory pathogen activity

The studied respiratory syndromes are suitable for syndromic surveillance because they reflect respiratory pathogen activity patterns

Syndromic surveillance is increasingly used to signal unusual illness events. To validate data-source selection, we retrospectively investigated the extent to which 6 respiratory syndromes (based on different medical registries) reflected respiratory pathogen activity. These syndromes showed higher levels in winter, which corresponded with higher laboratory counts of Streptococcus pneumoniae, respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza virus. Multiple linear regression models indicated that most syndrome variations (up to 86%) can be explained by counts of respiratory pathogens. Absenteeism and pharmacy syndromes might reflect nonrespiratory conditions as well. We also observed systematic syndrome elevations in the fall, which were unexplained by pathogen counts but likely reflected rhinovirus activity. Earliest syndrome elevations were observed in absenteeism data, followed by hospital data (+1 week), pharmacy/general practitioner consultations (+2 weeks), and deaths/laboratory submissions (test requests) (+3 weeks). We conclude that these syndromes can be used for respiratory syndromic surveillance, since they reflect patterns in respiratory pathogen activity.