China Kadoorie Biobank of 0.5 million people: survey methods, baseline characteristics and long-term follow-up

Associations of traditional cardiovascular risk factors with 15-year blood pressure change and trajectories in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

How traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are related to long-term blood pressure change (BPC) or trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the independent associations of these factors with 15-year BPC and trajectories in Chinese adults.

METHODS

We included 15 985 participants who had attended three surveys, including 2004-2008 baseline survey, and 2013-2014 and 2020-2021 resurveys, over 15 years in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We measured systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), height, weight, and waist circumference (WC). We asked about the sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol drinking, intake of fresh vegetables, fruits, and red meat, and physical activity, using a structured questionnaire. We calculated standard deviation (SD), cumulative blood pressure (cumBP), coefficient of variation (CV), and average real variability (ARV) as long-term BPC proxies. We identified blood pressure trajectories using the latent class growth model.

RESULTS

Most baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics were associated with cumBP. After adjusting for other characteristics, the cumSBP (mmHg × year) increased by 116.9 [95% confidence interval (CI): 111.0, 122.7] for every 10 years of age. The differences of cumSBP in heavy drinkers of ≥60 g pure alcohol per day and former drinkers were 86.7 (60.7, 112.6) and 48.9 (23.1, 74.8) compared with less than weekly drinkers. The cumSBP in participants who ate red meat less than weekly was 29.4 (12.0, 46.8) higher than those who ate red meat daily. The corresponding differences of cumSBP were 127.8 (120.7, 134.9) and 70.2 (65.0, 75.3) for BMI per 5 kg/m 2 and WC per 10 cm. Most of the findings of other BPC measures by baseline characteristics were similar to the cumBP, but the differences between groups were somewhat weaker. Alcohol drinking was associated with several high-risk trajectories of SBP and DBP. Both BMI and WC were independently associated with all high-risk blood pressure trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Several traditional CVD risk factors were associated with unfavorable long-term BPC or blood pressure trajectories in Chinese adults.

Diversity and scale: Genetic architecture of 2068 traits in the VA Million Veteran Program

One of the justifiable criticisms of human genetic studies is the underrepresentation of participants from diverse populations. Lack of inclusion must be addressed at-scale to identify causal disease factors and understand the genetic causes of health disparities. We present genome-wide associations for 2068 traits from 635,969 participants in the Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program, a longitudinal study of diverse United States Veterans. Systematic analysis revealed 13,672 genomic risk loci; 1608 were only significant after including non-European populations. Fine-mapping identified causal variants at 6318 signals across 613 traits. One-third (n = 2069) were identified in participants from non-European populations. This reveals a broadly similar genetic architecture across populations, highlights genetic insights gained from underrepresented groups, and presents an extensive atlas of genetic associations.

Incidence and mortality rates of 14 site-specific infectious diseases in 10 diverse areas of China: findings from China Kadoorie Biobank, 2006-2018

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases remain a major global health concern, including in China, with an estimated >10 million cases of infectious disease in 2019. We describe the burden of site-specific infectious diseases among Chinese adults.

METHODS

From 2004 to 2008, the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512,726 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse areas (5 rural, 5 urban) of China. During the 12 years of follow-up, 101,673 participants were hospitalised for any infectious disease. Descriptive analyses examined standardised incidence, mortality, and case fatality of infections.

FINDINGS

The incidence of any infectious disease was 1856 per 100,000 person-years; respiratory tract infections (1069) were most common. The infectious disease mortality rate was 31.8 per 100,000 person years (20.3 and 9.4 for respiratory and non-respiratory infections, respectively) and case fatality was 2.2% (2.6% and 1.6% for respiratory and non-respiratory infections, respectively). Infectious disease incidence and mortality rates were higher at older ages and in rural areas. There were no clear sex-differences in infectious disease incidence rates, but mortality and case fatality rates were twice as high in men as in women.

INTERPRETATION

Infectious diseases were common in Chinese adults. The observed burden of, and disparities in, site-specific infections can inform targeted prevention efforts.

FUNDING

Kadoorie Foundation, Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, MoST, NNSF.

Joint impact of polygenic risk score and lifestyles on early- and late-onset cardiovascular diseases

Understanding the interactions between genetic risk and lifestyles on different types and age onsets of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help identify individuals for whom lifestyle changes would be beneficial. Here we developed three polygenic risk scores, called MetaPRSs, for coronary artery disease, ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage by combining PRSs for CVD and CVD-related risk factors in 96,400 participants from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank. Genetic and lifestyle risks were categorized by the disease-specific MetaPRSs and the number of unfavourable lifestyles. High genetic risk and unfavourable lifestyles were found to be more strongly associated with early than late onset of CVD outcomes in men and women. Change from unfavourable to favourable lifestyles resulted in 14.7-, 2.5- and 2.6-fold greater reductions in incidence rates of early-onset coronary artery disease and ischaemic stroke and late-onset coronary artery disease in high than low genetic risk group. Young adults at high genetic risk may have larger benefits in preventing CVD from lifestyle improvements.

Socioeconomic disparity in the natural history of cutaneous melanoma: evidence from two large prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on the associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) failed to distinguish the effects of different SES factors under an individual-data-based prospective study design.

METHODS

Based on UK Biobank (UKB) and China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we estimated the effects of four SES factors on transitions from baseline to CMM in situ, subsequently to invasive CMM and further CMM mortality by applying multistate models. We further explored to which extent the associations between SES and CMM incidence could be explained by potential mediators including sun exposure, lifestyle and ageing in UKB.

RESULTS

In multistate analyses, good household income was independently associated with an increased risk of CMM in situ (HR=1.38, 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.58) and invasive CMM (HR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.48) in UKB. These findings were partly validated in CKB. Especially in UKB, we observed an increased risk of CMM in situ and invasive CMM among participants with good type of house; only good education was independently associated with lower risk of evolving to invasive CMM among patients with CMM in situ (HR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.52 to 0.92); only good household income was independently associated with lower risk of CMM mortality among patients with CMM (HR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.95). In mediation analysis, the proportions attributable to the mediating effect were <6% for all selected variables, including self-reported sun exposure-related factors.

CONCLUSION

SES factors have different effects on the incidence and progression of CMM. The association between SES and incident CMM is neither causal nor well explained by selected mediators.

Big data in sarcoidosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review provides an overview of recent advancements in sarcoidosis research, focusing on collaborative networks, phenotype characterization, and molecular studies. It highlights the importance of collaborative efforts, phenotype characterization, and the integration of multilevel molecular data for advancing sarcoidosis research and paving the way toward personalized medicine.

RECENT FINDINGS

Sarcoidosis exhibits heterogeneous clinical manifestations influenced by various factors. Efforts to define sarcoidosis endophenotypes show promise, while technological advancements enable extensive molecular data generation. Collaborative networks and biobanks facilitate large-scale studies, enhancing biomarker discovery and therapeutic protocols.

SUMMARY

Sarcoidosis presents a complex challenge due to its unknown cause and heterogeneous clinical manifestations. Collaborative networks, comprehensive phenotype delineation, and the utilization of cutting-edge technologies are essential for advancing our understanding of sarcoidosis biology and developing personalized medicine approaches. Leveraging large-scale epidemiological resources and biobanks and integrating multilevel molecular data offer promising avenues for unraveling the disease's heterogeneity and improving patient outcomes.

Association of lifestyle with reduced stroke risk in 41 314 individuals with diabetes: Two prospective cohort studies in China

AIM

To investigate the associations of individual and combined healthy lifestyle factors (HLS) with the risk of stroke in individuals with diabetes in China.

METHODS

This prospective analysis included 41 314 individuals with diabetes [15 191 from the Comprehensive Research on the Prevention and Control of the Diabetes (CRPCD) project and 26 123 from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study]. Associations of lifestyle factors, including cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diet, body shape and sleep duration, with the risk of stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and ischaemic stroke (IS) were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

During median follow-up periods of 8.02 and 9.05 years, 2499 and 4578 cases of stroke, 2147 and 4024 of IS, and 160 and 728 of ICH were documented in individuals with diabetes in the CRPCD and CKB cohorts, respectively. In the CRPCD cohort, patients with ≥5 HLS had a 14% lower risk of stroke (hazard ratio (HR): 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75-0.98) than those with ≤2 HLS. In the CKB cohort, the adjusted HR (95% CI) for patients with ≥5 HLS were 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for stroke, 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for IS, and 0.57 (0.42-0.78) for ICH compared with those with ≤2 HLS. The pooled adjusted HR (95% CI) comparing patients with ≥5 HLS versus ≤2 HLS was 0.79 (0.69-0.92) for stroke, 0.80 (0.68-0.93) for IS, and 0.60 (0.46-0.78) for ICH.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintaining a healthy lifestyle was associated with a lower risk of stroke, IS and ICH among individuals with diabetes.

PathGPS: discover shared genetic architecture using GWAS summary data

The increasing availability and scale of biobanks and "omic" datasets bring new horizons for understanding biological mechanisms. PathGPS is an exploratory data analysis tool to discover genetic architectures using Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) summary data. PathGPS is based on a linear structural equation model where traits are regulated by both genetic and environmental pathways. PathGPS decouples the genetic and environmental components by contrasting the GWAS associations of "signal" genes with those of "noise" genes. From the estimated genetic component, PathGPS then extracts genetic pathways via principal component and factor analysis, leveraging the low-rank and sparse properties. In addition, we provide a bootstrap aggregating ("bagging") algorithm to improve stability under data perturbation and hyperparameter tuning. When applied to a metabolomics dataset and the UK Biobank, PathGPS confirms several known gene-trait clusters and suggests multiple new hypotheses for future investigations.

Early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study from the China Kadoorie Biobank

BACKGROUND

The associations of early adulthood BMI with cardiovascular diseases have yet to be completely delineated. There is little reliable evidence about these associations among east Asian populations, that differ in fat distribution, disease patterns, and lifestyle factors from other populations. We aimed to study the associations between early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular diseases in a Chinese population, and the effect of midlife lifestyle factors on outcomes.

METHODS

In this prospective analysis, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large and long-term cohort from five urban areas and five rural areas, using participants aged 35-70 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of cardiovascular diseases as a group, ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke, which were obtained mainly through linkage to disease registries and the national database for health insurance claims. Early adulthood BMI was assessed through self-report at baseline survey. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the prospective associations. We also undertook multiplicative and additive interaction analyses to investigate the potential modification effect of midlife healthy lifestyle factors (a combined score covering smoking, drinking, physical activity, and diet).

FINDINGS

Participants were recruited for baseline survey between June, 2004, and July, 2008. During a median follow-up of 12·0 years (IQR 11·3-13·1), we documented 57 203 (15·9%) of incident cardiovascular diseases in 360 855 participants. After adjustment for potential confounders, monotonic dose-response associations were observed between higher early adulthood BMI and increased risks of incident cardiovascular diseases. Compared with an early adulthood BMI of 20·5-22·4 kg/m2 (the reference group), the hazard ratios for a BMI of less than 18·5 kg/m2 was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00), 18·5-20·4 kg/m2 was 0·97 (0·95-0·99), 22·5-23·9 kg/m2 was 1·04 (1·02-1·07), 24·0-25·9 kg/m2 was 1·12 (1·09-1·15), 26·0-27·9 kg/m2 was 1·19 (1·14-1·24), 28·0-29·9 kg/m2 was 1·34 (1·25-1·44), and ≥30·0 kg/m2 was 1·58 (1·42-1·75). Except for haemorrhagic stroke, lower early adulthood BMI (<20·5 kg/m2) was associated with decreased incident cardiovascular disease risks. No significant interaction was found between midlife healthy lifestyle factors and early adulthood BMI on cardiovascular disease risks.

INTERPRETATION

Increased risks of cardiovascular disease incidence were found among participants with high early adulthood adiposity, including ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke. Our findings suggest early adulthood as an important time to focus on weight management and obesity prevention for cardiovascular health later in life.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust.

Prospective evaluation of the relevance of Epstein-Barr virus antibodies for early detection of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a major cause of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and measurement of different EBV antibodies in blood may improve early detection of NPC. Prospective studies can help assess the roles of different EBV antibodies in predicting NPC risk over time.

METHODS

A case-cohort study within the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank of 512 715 adults from 10 (including two NPC endemic) areas included 295 incident NPC cases and 745 subcohort participants. A multiplex serology assay was used to quantify IgA and IgG antibodies against 16 EBV antigens in stored baseline plasma samples. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NPC and C-statistics to assess the discriminatory ability of EBV-markers, including two previously identified EBV-marker combinations, for predicting NPC.

RESULTS

Sero-positivity for 15 out of 16 EBV-markers was significantly associated with higher NPC risk. Both IgA and IgG antibodies against the same three EBV-markers showed the most extreme HRs, i.e. BGLF2 (IgA: 124.2 (95% CI: 63.3-243.9); IgG: 8.6 (5.5-13.5); LF2: [67.8 (30.0-153.1), 10.9 (7.2-16.4)]); and BFRF1: 26.1 (10.1-67.5), 6.1 (2.7-13.6). Use of a two-marker (i.e. LF2/BGLF2 IgG) and a four-marker (i.e. LF2/BGLF2 IgG and LF2/EA-D IgA) combinations yielded C-statistics of 0.85 and 0.84, respectively, which persisted for at least 5 years after sample collection in both endemic and non-endemic areas.

CONCLUSIONS

In Chinese adults, plasma EBV markers strongly predict NPC occurrence many years before clinical diagnosis. LF2 and BGLF2 IgG could identify NPC high-risk individuals to improve NPC early detection in community and clinical settings.

Development and evaluation of a risk prediction tool for risk-adapted screening of colorectal cancer in China

Risk prediction tools for colorectal cancer (CRC) have potential to improve the efficiency of population-based screening by facilitating risk-adapted strategies. However, such an applicable tool has yet to be established in the Chinese population. In this study, a risk score was created using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide cohort study of 409,854 eligible participants. Diagnostic performance of the risk score was evaluated in an independent CRC screening programme, which included 91,575 participants who accepted colonoscopy at designed hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. Over a median follow-up of 11.1 years, 3,136 CRC cases were documented in the CKB. A risk score was created based on nine questionnaire-derived variables, showing moderate discrimination for 10-year CRC risk (C-statistic =0.68, 95% CI: 0.67-0.69). In the CRC screening programme, the detection rates of CRC were 0.25%, 0.82%, and 1.93% in low-risk (score <6), intermediate-risk (score: 6-19), and high-risk (score >19) groups, respectively. The newly developed score exhibited a C-statistic of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.63-0.66), surpassing the widely adopted tools such as the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), modified APCS, and Korean Colorectal Screening scores (all C-statistics =0.60). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk prediction tool that is useful to identify individuals at high risk of CRC. A user-friendly online calculator was also constructed to encourage broader adoption of the tool.

PCSK9 genetic variants and risk of vascular and non-vascular diseases in Chinese and UK populations

AIMS

Lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) through PCSK9 inhibition represents a new therapeutic approach to preventing and treating cardiovascular disease (CVD). Phenome-wide analyses of PCSK9 genetic variants in large biobanks can help to identify unexpected effects of PCSK9 inhibition.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, we constructed a genetic score using three variants at the PCSK9 locus associated with directly measured LDL-C [PCSK9 genetic score (PCSK9-GS)]. Logistic regression gave estimated odds ratios (ORs) for PCSK9-GS associations with CVD and non-CVD outcomes, scaled to 1 SD lower LDL-C. PCSK9-GS was associated with lower risks of carotid plaque [n = 8340 cases; OR = 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.45-0.83); P = 0.0015], major occlusive vascular events [n = 15 752; 0.80 (0.67-0.95); P = 0.011], and ischaemic stroke [n = 11 467; 0.80 (0.66-0.98); P = 0.029]. However, PCSK9-GS was also associated with higher risk of hospitalization with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD: n = 6836; 1.38 (1.08-1.76); P = 0.0089] and with even higher risk of fatal exacerbations amongst individuals with pre-existing COPD [n = 730; 3.61 (1.71-7.60); P = 7.3 × 10-4]. We also replicated associations for a PCSK9 variant, reported in UK Biobank, with increased risks of acute upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) [pooled OR after meta-analysis of 1.87 (1.38-2.54); P = 5.4 × 10-5] and self-reported asthma [pooled OR of 1.17 (1.04-1.30); P = 0.0071]. There was no association of a polygenic LDL-C score with COPD hospitalization, COPD exacerbation, or URTI.

CONCLUSION

The LDL-C-lowering PCSK9 genetic variants are associated with lower risk of subclinical and clinical atherosclerotic vascular disease but higher risks of respiratory diseases. Pharmacovigilance studies may be required to monitor patients treated with therapeutic PCSK9 inhibitors for exacerbations of respiratory diseases or respiratory tract infections.

LAY SUMMARY

Genetic analyses of over 100 000 participants of the China Kadoorie Biobank, mimicking the effect of new drugs intended to reduce cholesterol by targeting the PCSK9 protein, have identified potential severe effects of lower PCSK9 activity in patients with existing respiratory disease.PCSK9 genetic variants that are associated with lower cholesterol and reduced rates of cardiovascular disease are also associated with increased risk of a range of respiratory diseases, including asthma, upper respiratory tract infections, and hospitalization with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).These genetic variants are not associated with whether or not individuals have COPD; instead, they are specifically associated with an increase in the chance of those who already have COPD being hospitalized and even dying, suggesting that careful monitoring of such patients should be considered during development of and treatment with anti-PCSK9 medication.

Leveraging sex-genetic interactions to understand brain disorders: recent advances and current gaps

It is established that there are sex differences in terms of prevalence, age of onset, clinical manifestations, and response to treatment for a variety of brain disorders, including neurodevelopmental, psychiatric, and neurodegenerative disorders. Cohorts of increasing sample sizes with diverse data types collected, including genetic, transcriptomic and/or phenotypic data, are providing the building blocks to permit analytical designs to test for sex-biased genetic variant-trait associations, and for sex-biased transcriptional regulation. Such molecular assessments can contribute to our understanding of the manifested phenotypic differences between the sexes for brain disorders, offering the future possibility of delivering personalized therapy for females and males. With the intention of raising the profile of this field as a research priority, this review aims to shed light on the importance of investigating sex-genetic interactions for brain disorders, focusing on two areas: (i) variant-trait associations and (ii) transcriptomics (i.e. gene expression, transcript usage and regulation). We specifically discuss recent advances in the field, current gaps and provide considerations for future studies.

Editorial: Exploring the influence of diet on later-onset ulcerative colitis-Are eggs and spicy foods the key factors in Asia? Authors' reply

This article is linked to Song et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17963 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17983

Proteomic Analyses in Diverse Populations Improved Risk Prediction and Identified New Drug Targets for Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Integrated analyses of plasma proteomics and genetic data in prospective studies can help assess the causal relevance of proteins, improve risk prediction, and discover novel protein drug targets for type 2 diabetes (T2D).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We measured plasma levels of 2,923 proteins using Olink Explore among ∼2,000 randomly selected participants from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) without prior diabetes at baseline. Cox regression assessed associations of individual protein with incident T2D (n = 92 cases). Proteomic-based risk models were developed with discrimination, calibration, reclassification assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and net reclassification index (NRI), respectively. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using cis-protein quantitative trait loci identified in a genome-wide association study of CKB and UK Biobank for specific proteins were conducted to assess their causal relevance for T2D, along with colocalization analyses to examine shared causal variants between proteins and T2D.

RESULTS

Overall, 33 proteins were significantly associated (false discovery rate <0.05) with risk of incident T2D, including IGFBP1, GHR, and amylase. The addition of these 33 proteins to a conventional risk prediction model improved AUC from 0.77 (0.73-0.82) to 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and NRI by 38%, with predicted risks well calibrated with observed risks. MR analyses provided support for the causal relevance for T2D of ENTR1, LPL, and PON3, with replication of ENTR1 and LPL in Europeans using different genetic instruments. Moreover, colocalization analyses showed strong evidence (pH4 > 0.6) of shared genetic variants of LPL and PON3 with T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Proteomic analyses in Chinese adults identified novel associations of multiple proteins with T2D with strong genetic evidence supporting their causal relevance and potential as novel drug targets for prevention and treatment of T2D.

Dietary factors and patterns in relation to risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis in Chinese: A prospective study of 0.5 million people

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis (UC) in Chinese adults.

AIMS

To investigate the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset UC in Chinese.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study recruited 512,726 participants aged 30-79. Dietary habits were assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis with a principal component method. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 312 cases of newly diagnosed UC were documented (median age of diagnosis 60.1 years). Egg consumption was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for daily vs. never or rarely: 2.29 [95% CI: 1.26-4.16]), while spicy food consumption was inversely associated with risk of UC (HR: 0.63 [0.45-0.88]). The traditional northern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of wheat and low intake of rice, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile of score: 2.79 [1.93-4.05]). The modern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of animal-origin foods and fruits, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR: 2.48 [1.63-3.78]). Population attributable fraction was 13.04% (7.71%-19.11%) for daily/almost daily consumption of eggs and 9.87% (1.94%-18.22%) for never/rarely consumption of spicy food.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight the importance of evaluating dietary factors and patterns in the primary prevention of later-onset UC in Chinese adults.

Spicy food consumption reduces the risk of ischaemic stroke: a prospective study

Previous studies revealed that consuming spicy food reduced mortality from CVD and lowered stroke risk. However, no studies reported the relationship between spicy food consumption, stroke types and dose–response. This study aimed to further explore the association between the frequency of spicy food intake and the risk of stroke in a large prospective cohort study. In this study, 50 174 participants aged 30–79 years were recruited. Spicy food consumption data were collected via a baseline survey questionnaire. Outcomes were incidence of any stroke, ischaemic stroke (IS) and haemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models estimated the association between the consumption of spicy food and incident stroke. Restricted cubic spline analysis was used to examine the dose–response relationship. During the median 10·7-year follow-up, 3967 strokes were recorded, including 3494 IS and 516 HS. Compared with those who never/rarely consumed spicy food, those who consumed spicy food monthly, 1–2 d/week and 3–5 d/week had hazard ratio (HR) of 0·914 (95 % CI 0·841, 0·995), 0·869 (95 % CI 0·758, 0·995) and 0·826 (95 % CI 0·714, 0·956) for overall stroke, respectively. For IS, the corresponding HR) were 0·909 (95 % CI 0·832, 0·994), 0·831 (95 % CI 0·718, 0·962) and 0·813 (95 % CI 0·696, 0·951), respectively. This protective effect showed a U-shaped dose–response relationship. For obese participants, consuming spicy food ≥ 3 d/week was negatively associated with the risk of IS. We found the consumption of spicy food was negatively associated with the risk of IS and had a U-shaped dose–response relationship with risk of IS. Individuals who consumed spicy food 3–5 d/week had a significantly lowest risk of IS.

Healthy lifestyles and rapid progression of carotid plaque in population with atherosclerosis: A prospective cohort study in China

Background

Healthy lifestyles are effective means to reduce major cardiovascular events. However, little is known about the association of healthy lifestyles with development of carotid atherosclerosis at the early stage of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs).

Methods

We enrolled participants from Fujian province in the China PEACE MPP project. We calculated a healthy lifestyle score by adherence to non-smoking, sufficient physical activity, healthy diet and healthy body mass index. Cox proportional hazards regression models and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to explore the association between the healthy lifestyles and rapid progression of carotid plaque.

Results

8379 participants were included (mean age: 60.6 ± 8.3 years, 54.6 % female), with a median follow-up of 1.2 years (inter quartile range: 1.0-1.6). RCS showed a significant inverse association between the healthy lifestyle score and progression of carotid plaque. Participants with "intermediate" (HR: 0.72 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.80]) or "ideal" (HR: 0.68 [0.59-0.78]) adherence to healthy lifestyles had a lower risk of progression of carotid plaque compared to those with "poor" adherence. Age, sex, occupation, income, residence type and metabolic status were significant factors influencing the relationship. Farmers benefited more in non-smoking and sufficient physical activity compared to non-farmers, and participants with lower income or without dyslipidaemia benefited more in sufficient physical activity and healthy diet compared to their counterparts (p-for-interaction < 0.05).

Conclusions

Healthy lifestyles were associated with lower risk of progression of carotid plaque in populations with atherosclerosis. Promotion of healthy lifestyles from the early stage of carotid atherosclerosis could reduce the burden of CVDs in China.

Helicobacter pylori Treatment and Gastric Cancer Risk Among Individuals With High Genetic Risk for Gastric Cancer

Importance

Helicobacter pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation may protect against gastric cancer (GC), but whether the beneficial effects only apply to potential genetic subgroups and whether high genetic risk may be counteracted by these chemoprevention strategies remains unknown.

Objective

To examine genetic variants associated with the progression of gastric lesions and GC risk and to assess the benefits of H pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation by levels of genetic risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used follow-up data of the Shandong Intervention Trial (SIT, 1989-2022) and China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB, 2004-2018) in China. Based on the SIT, a longitudinal genome-wide association study was conducted to identify genetic variants for gastric lesion progression. Significant variants were examined for incident GC in a randomly sampled set of CKB participants (set 1). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) combining independent variants were assessed for GC risk in the remaining CKB participants (set 2) and in an independent case-control study in Linqu.

Exposures

H pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were the progression of gastric lesions (in SIT only) and the risk of GC. The associations of H pylori treatment and nutrition supplementation with GC were evaluated among SIT participants with different levels of genetic risk.

Results

Our analyses included 2816 participants (mean [SD] age, 46.95 [9.12] years; 1429 [50.75%] women) in SIT and 100 228 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.69 [11.00] years; 57 357 [57.23%] women) in CKB, with 147 GC cases in SIT and 825 GC cases in CKB identified during follow-up. A PRS integrating 12 genomic loci associated with gastric lesion progression and incident GC risk was derived, which was associated with GC risk in CKB (highest vs lowest decile of PRS: hazard ratio [HR], 2.54; 95% CI, 1.80-3.57) and further validated in the analysis of 702 case participants and 692 control participants (mean [SD] age, 54.54 [7.66] years; 527 [37.80%] women; odds ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.11-3.05). H pylori treatment was associated with reduced GC risk only for individuals with high genetic risk (top 25% of PRS: HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.82) but not for those with low genetic risk (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.50-1.34; P for interaction = .03). Such effect modification was not found for vitamin (P for interaction = .93) or garlic (P for interaction = .41) supplementation.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study indicate that a high genetic risk of GC may be counteracted by H pylori treatment, suggesting primary prevention could be tailored to genetic risk for more effective prevention.

The Minhang Pediatric Biobank cohort study: protocol overview and baseline characteristics

BACKGROUND

Little has been done to establish biobanks for studying the environment and lifestyle risk factors for diseases among the school-age children. The Minhang Pediatric Biobank (MPB) cohort study aims to identify factors associated with health and diseases of school-aged children living in the urban or suburban area of Shanghai.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study was started in all sub-districts/towns of Minhang district of Shanghai in 2014. First-grade students in elementary school were enrolled during the time of their routine physical examinations, with self-administered questionnaires completed by their primary caregivers. Additional information was extracted from multiple health information systems. Urine and saliva samples were collected during the baseline survey and follow-up visits.

RESULTS

At the end of 2014 academic year, a total number of 8412 children and their parents were recruited, including 4339 boys and 4073 girls. All the participants completed the baseline survey and physical examination, and 7128 urine and 2767 saliva samples were collected. The five most prevalent childhood diseases in this population were dental caries, bronchitis, pneumonia, asthma and overweight/obese.

CONCLUSIONS

The MPB cohort has been successfully established, serving as a useful platform for future research relating to the genetic, environmental and lifestyle risk factors for childhood diseases.

Serum Proteomic Signatures in Cervical Cancer: Current Status and Future Directions

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 604,000 new diagnoses of cervical cancer (CC) worldwide, and over 300,000 CC-related fatalities. The vast majority of CC cases are caused by persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. HPV-related CC incidence and mortality rates have declined worldwide because of increased HPV vaccination and CC screening with the Papanicolaou test (PAP test). Despite these significant improvements, developing countries face difficulty implementing these programs, while developed nations are challenged with identifying HPV-independent cases. Molecular and proteomic information obtained from blood or tumor samples have a strong potential to provide information on malignancy progression and response to therapy in CC. There is a large amount of published biomarker data related to CC available but the extensive validation required by the FDA approval for clinical use is lacking. The ability of researchers to use the big data obtained from clinical studies and to draw meaningful relationships from these data are two obstacles that must be overcome for implementation into clinical practice. We report on identified multimarker panels of serum proteomic studies in CC for the past 5 years, the potential for modern computational biology efforts, and the utilization of nationwide biobanks to bridge the gap between multivariate protein signature development and the prediction of clinically relevant CC patient outcomes.

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province

Objectives

The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases.

Methods

This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities.

Results

The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19-3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85-53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22-15.31).

Conclusion

The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions.

Predictive value of 8-year blood pressure measures in intracerebral hemorrhage risk over 5 years

AIMS

The relationships between long-term blood pressure (BP) measures and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), as well as their predictive ability on ICH, were unclear. We aimed to investigate the independent associations of multiple BP measures with subsequent 5-year ICH risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction.

METHODS

We included 12,398 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who completed three surveys every four to five years. The following long-term BP measures were calculated: mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and cumulative BP exposure (cumBP). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between these measures and ICH. The potential incremental value of these measures in ICH risk prediction was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI).

RESULTS

The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident ICH associated with per SD increase in cumSBP and cumDBP were 1.62 (1.25, 2.10) and 1.59 (1.23, 2.07), respectively. When cumBP was added to the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model, the C-statistic change was 0.009 (-0.001, 0.019), the cNRI was 0.267 (0.070, 0.464), and the rIDI was 18.2% (5.8%, 30.7%). Further subgroup analyses revealed a consistent increase in cNRI and rIDI in men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes. Other long-term BP measures showed no statistically significant associations with incident ICH and generally did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSION

The nearly 10-year cumBP was positively associated with an increased 5-year risk of ICH and could significantly improve risk reclassification for the ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement.

Infectious pathogens and risk of esophageal, gastric and duodenal cancers and ulcers in China: A case-cohort study

Infection by certain pathogens is associated with cancer development. We conducted a case-cohort study of ~2500 incident cases of esophageal, gastric and duodenal cancer, and gastric and duodenal ulcer and a randomly selected subcohort of ~2000 individuals within the China Kadoorie Biobank study of >0.5 million adults. We used a bead-based multiplex serology assay to measure antibodies against 19 pathogens (total 43 antigens) in baseline plasma samples. Associations between pathogens and antigen-specific antibodies with risks of site-specific cancers and ulcers were assessed using Cox regression fitted using the Prentice pseudo-partial likelihood. Seroprevalence varied for different pathogens, from 0.7% for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) to 99.8% for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in the subcohort. Compared to participants seronegative for the corresponding pathogen, Helicobacter pylori seropositivity was associated with a higher risk of non-cardia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.73 [95% CI: 2.09-3.58]) and cardia (1.67 [1.18-2.38]) gastric cancer and duodenal ulcer (2.71 [1.79-4.08]). HCV was associated with a higher risk of duodenal cancer (6.23 [1.52-25.62]) and Hepatitis B virus was associated with higher risk of duodenal ulcer (1.46 [1.04-2.05]). There were some associations of antibodies again some herpesviruses and human papillomaviruses with risks of gastrointestinal cancers and ulcers but these should be interpreted with caution. This first study of multiple pathogens with risk of gastrointestinal cancers and ulcers demonstrated that several pathogens are associated with risks of gastrointestinal cancers and ulcers. This will inform future investigations into the role of infection in the etiology of these diseases.

Association between cooking fuel exposure and respiratory health: Longitudinal evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)

The epidemiological evidences for the association between cooking fuel exposure and respiratory health were inconsistent, and repeated-measures prospective evaluation of cooking fuel exposure was still lacking. We assessed the longitudinal association of chronic lung disease (CLD) and lung function with cooking fuel types among Chinese adults aged ≥ 40 years. In this prospective, nationwide representative cohort of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, 9004 participants from 28 provinces in China were included. CLD was identified based on self-reported physician diagnosis in 2018. Lung function was assessed by peak expiratory flow (PEF) in 2011, 2013 and 2015. Multivariable logistic and linear mixed-effects repeated-measures models were conducted to measure the associations of CLD and PEF with cooking fuel types. Three-level mixed-effects model was performed as sensitivity analysis. Among the participants, 3508 and 3548 participants used persistent solid and clean cooking fuels throughout the survey, and 1948 participants who used solid cooking fuels at baseline switched to clean cooking fuels. Use of persistent clean cooking fuels (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.73, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.61, 0.88) and switch of solid fuels to clean fuels (aOR = 0.81, 95 % CI: 0.67, 0.98) were associated with lower risk of CLD. The use of clean cooking fuels throughout the survey and switch of solid fuels to clean fuels in 2013 were also significantly associated with higher PEF level. Similar results were observed in stratified analyses and different statistical models. The evidence from CHARLS cohort suggested that reducing solid cooking fuel exposure was associated with lower risk of CLD and better lung function. Given the recent evidence, improving household air quality will reduce the burden of chronic lung diseases.

Socioeconomic disparities in the association of age at first live birth with incident stroke among Chinese parous women: A prospective cohort study

Background

Stroke has become a significant public health issue in China. Although studies have shown that women's age at first live birth (AFLB) might be associated with incident stroke, there is limited evidence on this relationship among Chinese parous women. Likewise, the nature of this association across urban-rural socioeconomic status (SES) has yet to be explored. In this prospective study, we sought to investigate the associations of women's AFLB with the risk of incident stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage) and to explore the differences of these associations as well as the population-level impacts across SES classes.

Methods

We used data on 290 932 Chinese parous women from the China Kadoorie Biobank who were recruited in the baseline survey between 2004 and 2008 and followed up until 2015. We used latent class analysis to identify urban-rural SES classes and Cox proportional hazard regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AFLB's association with incident stroke. We then calculated population attributable fraction (PAF) to demonstrate the population-level impact of later AFLB on stroke.

Results

Around 8.9% of parous women developed stroke after AFLB. Compared with women with AFLB <22 years, those with older AFLB had a higher risk of total stroke, with fully adjusted HRs (95% CI) of 1.71 (95% CI = 1.65-1.77) for 22-24 years and 3.37 (95% CI = 3.24-3.51) for ≥25 years. The associations of AFLB with ischaemic stroke were stronger among rural-low-SES participants. We found the highest PAFs of ischaemic stroke (60.1%; 95% CI = 46.2-70.3) associated with later AFLB for urban-high-SES individuals.

Conclusions

Older AFLB was associated with higher risks of incident stroke and its subtypes among Chinese parous women, with stronger associations between AFLB and ischaemic stroke among rural-low-SES participants. Targeted medical advice for pregnant women of different ages could have long-term benefits for stroke prevention.

Secondhand smoke exposure can increase the risk of first ischemic stroke: A 10.7-year prospective cohort study in China

INTRODUCTION

Passive smoking is considered a major public health issue in China. Prospective evidence regarding the link between secondhand smoke (SHS) and ischemic stroke in China is scarce.

METHODS

The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study in Liuzhou City recruited 50,174 participants during 2004-2008. Of these 30,456 never-smokers were included in our study. The median follow-up period was 10.7 years. The incidence of ischemic stroke was obtained through the China Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system and the Health Insurance (HI) database. Cox proportional risk models were used to evaluate the association between SHS exposure and ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

During 320,678 person-years of follow-up, there were 2059 patients with ischemic stroke observed and the incidence of ischemic stroke was 6.42 per thousand person-years. Participants exposed to SHS daily faced a 21 % higher risk of ischemic stroke (HR = 1.21, 95 %CI: 1.09-1.34) compared to those exposed to SHS less than once a week. Subgroup analyses revealed that daily SHS exposure was linked to heightened risk of ischemic stroke among women, non-employed, and non-weekly tea drinkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily SHS exposure was associated with higher risks of ischemic stroke. Proactive tobacco control strategies are necessary to decrease the risk of ischemic stroke in never smokers.

Association between health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tier for cardiovascular diseases in China: a prospective cohort study

Background

Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers.

Methods

In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009-2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics.

Findings

About 64-68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27-29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas.

Interpretation

Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use.

Funding

Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Reproductive factors and risk of lung cancer among 300,000 Chinese female never-smokers: evidence from the China Kadoorie Biobank study

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality among Chinese females despite the low smoking prevalence among this population. This study assessed the roles of reproductive factors in lung cancer development among Chinese female never-smokers.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited over 0.5 million Chinese adults (0.3 million females) from 10 geographical areas in China in 2004-2008 when information on socio-demographic/lifestyle/environmental factors, physical measurements, medical history, and reproductive history collected through interviewer-administered questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer by reproductive factors. Subgroup analyses by menopausal status, birth year, and geographical region were performed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11 years, 2,284 incident lung cancers occurred among 282,558 female never-smokers. Ever oral contraceptive use was associated with a higher risk of lung cancer (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.33) with a significant increasing trend associated with longer duration of use (p-trend = 0.03). Longer average breastfeeding duration per child was associated with a decreased risk (0.86, 0.78-0.95) for > 12 months compared with those who breastfed for 7-12 months. No statistically significant association was detected between other reproductive factors and lung cancer risk.

CONCLUSION

Oral contraceptive use was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in Chinese female never-smokers. Further studies are needed to assess lung cancer risk related to different types of oral contraceptives in similar populations.

Childhood maltreatment and health in the UK Biobank: triangulation of outcome-wide and polygenic risk score analyses

BACKGROUND

Childhood maltreatment is common globally and impacts morbidity, mortality, and well-being. Our understanding of its impact is constrained by key substantive and methodological limitations of extant research, including understudied physical health outcomes and bias due to unmeasured confounding. We address these limitations through a large-scale outcome-wide triangulation study.

METHODS

We performed two outcome-wide analyses (OWAs) in the UK Biobank. First, we examined the relationship between self-reported maltreatment exposure (number of maltreatment types, via Childhood Trauma Screener) and 414 outcomes in a sub-sample of 157,316 individuals using generalized linear models ("observational OWA"). Outcomes covered a broad range of health themes including health behaviors, cardiovascular disease, digestive health, socioeconomic status, and pain. Second, we examined the relationship between a polygenic risk score for maltreatment and 298 outcomes in a non-overlapping sample of 243,006 individuals ("genetic OWA"). We triangulated results across OWAs based on differing sources of bias.

RESULTS

Overall, 23.8% of the analytic sample for the observational OWA reported at least one maltreatment type. Of 298 outcomes examined in both OWAs, 25% were significant in both OWAs and concordant in the direction of association. Most of these were considered robust in the observational OWA according to sensitivity analyses and included outcomes such as marital separation (OR from observational OWA, ORo = 1.25 (95% CI: 1.21, 1.29); OR from genetic OWA, ORg = 1.06 (1.03, 1.08)), major diet changes due to illness (ORo = 1.27 (1.24, 1.29); ORg = 1.01 (1.00, 1.03)), certain intestinal diseases (ORo = 1.14 (1.10, 1.18); ORg = 1.03 (1.01, 1.06)), hearing difficulty with background noise (ORo = 1.11 (1.11, 1.12); ORg = 1.01 (1.00, 1.01)), knee arthrosis (ORo = 1.13 (1.09, 1.18); ORg = 1.03 (1.01, 1.05)), frequent sleeplessness (ORo = 1.21 (1.20, 1.23); ORg = 1.02 (1.01, 1.03)), and low household income (ORo = 1.28 (1.26, 1.31); ORg = 1.02 (1.01, 1.03)). Approximately 62% of results were significant in the observational OWA but not the genetic OWA, including numerous cardiovascular outcomes. Only 6 outcomes were significant in the genetic OWA and null in the observational OWA; these included diastolic blood pressure and glaucoma. No outcomes were statistically significant in opposite directions in the two analyses, and 11% were not significant in either OWA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underscore the far-reaching negative effects of childhood maltreatment in later life and the utility of an outcome-wide triangulation design with sensitivity analyses for improving causal inference.

A genome-wide association study based on the China Kadoorie Biobank identifies genetic associations between snoring and cardiometabolic traits

Despite the high prevalence of snoring in Asia, little is known about the genetic etiology of snoring and its causal relationships with cardiometabolic traits. Based on 100,626 Chinese individuals, a genome-wide association study on snoring was conducted. Four novel loci were identified for snoring traits mapped on SLC25A21, the intergenic region of WDR11 and FGFR, NAA25, ALDH2, and VTI1A, respectively. The novel loci highlighted the roles of structural abnormality of the upper airway and craniofacial region and dysfunction of metabolic and transport systems in the development of snoring. In the two-sample bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis, higher body mass index, weight, and elevated blood pressure were causal for snoring, and a reverse causal effect was observed between snoring and diastolic blood pressure. Altogether, our results revealed the possible etiology of snoring in China and indicated that managing cardiometabolic health was essential to snoring prevention, and hypertension should be considered among snorers.

Genetic interrogation for sequence and copy number variants in systemic lupus erythematosus

Early-onset systemic lupus erythematosus presents with a more severe disease and is associated with a greater genetic burden, especially in patients from Black, Asian or Hispanic ancestries. Next-generation sequencing techniques, notably whole exome sequencing, have been extensively used in genomic interrogation studies to identify causal disease variants that are increasingly implicated in the development of autoimmunity. This Review discusses the known casual variants of polygenic and monogenic systemic lupus erythematosus and its implications under certain genetic disparities while suggesting an age-based sequencing strategy to aid in clinical diagnostics and patient management for improved patient care.

Causal association between snoring and stroke: a Mendelian randomization study in a Chinese population

Background

Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke.

Methods

Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI <24.0 kg/m2), as well as multivariable MR (MVMR), were performed to control for potential pleiotropy from BMI. In addition, the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was applied to estimate the causal association with genetic variants identified in CKB GWAS.

Findings

Positive associations were found between snoring and total stroke, hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and ischemic stroke (IS). With GRS of CKB, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.56 (1.15, 2.12), 1.50 (0.84, 2.69), 2.02 (1.36, 3.01), and the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) using GRS of UKB were 1.78 (1.30, 2.43), 1.94 (1.07, 3.52), and 1.74 (1.16, 2.61). The associations remained stable in the MR among the non-obese group, MVMR analysis, and MR analysis using the IVW method.

Interpretation

This study suggests that, among Chinese adults, genetically predicted snoring could increase the risk of total stroke, IS, and HS, and the causal effect was independent of BMI.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation Hong Kong, UK Wellcome Trust, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

Leisure-time physical activity and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease in adults with type 2 diabetes: Cross-country comparison of cohort studies

PURPOSE

This study aimed to quantify the dose-response association and the minimal effective dose of leisure-time physical activity (PA) to prevent mortality and cardiovascular disease in adults with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Cross-country comparison of 2 prospective cohort studies including 14,913 and 17,457 population-based adults with type 2 diabetes from the UK and China. Baseline leisure-time PA was self-reported and categorized by metabolic equivalent hours per week (MET-h/week) according to World Health Organization recommendations: none, below recommendation (>0-7.49 MET-h/week); at recommended level (7.5-14.9 MET-h/week); above recommendation (≥15 MET-h/week). Mortality and cardiovascular disease data were obtained from national registries.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.4 and 9.7 years, in the UK and China cohorts, repectively, higher levels of leisure-time PA were inversely associated with all-cause (1571 and 2351 events) and cardiovascular mortality (392 and 1060 events), mostly consistent with a linear dose-response relationship. PA below, at, and above recommendations, compared with no activity, yielded all-cause mortality hazard ratios of 0.94 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.79-1.12), 0.90 (95%CI: 0.74-1.10), and 0.85 (95%CI: 0.70-1.02) in British adults and 0.87 (95%CI: 0.68-1.10), 0.88 (95%CI: 0.74-1.03), and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.70-0.85) in Chinese adults. Associations with cardiovascular mortality were more pronounced in British adults (0.80 (95%CI: 0.58-1.11), 0.75 (95%CI: 0.52-1.09), and 0.69 (95%CI: 0.48-0.97)) but less pronounced in Chinese adults (1.06 (95%CI: 0.76-1.47), 1.01 (95%CI: 0.80-1.28), and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.69-0.92)). PA at recommended levels was not associated with lower rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (2345 and 4458 events).

CONCLUSION

Leisure-time PA at the recommended levels was not convincingly associated with lower mortality and had no association with risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in British or Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes. Leisure-time PA above current recommendations may be needed to prevent cardiovascular disease and premature mortality in adults with type 2 diabetes.

Association of physical activity with risk of chronic kidney disease in China: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Information on the association between physical activity (PA) and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. We aimed to explore the associations of total, domain-specific, and intensity-specific PA with CKD and its subtypes in China.

METHODS

The study included 475,376 adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank aged 30-79 years during 2004-2008 at baseline. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the information about PA, which was quantified as metabolic equivalent of task hours per day (MET-h/day) and categorized into 4 groups based on quartiles. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between PA and CKD risk.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 5415 incident CKD cases were documented, including 1159 incident diabetic kidney disease (DKD) cases and 362 incident hypertensive nephropathy (HTN) cases. Total PA was inversely associated with CKD risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval (95%CI)) of 0.83 (0.75-0.92) for incident CKD in the highest quartile of total PA as compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Similar results were observed for risk of DKD and HTN, and the corresponding HRs (95%CIs) were 0.75 (0.58-0.97) for DKD risk and 0.56 (0.37-0.85) for HTN risk. Increased nonoccupational PA, low-intensity PA, and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA were significantly associated with a decreased risk of CKD, with HRs (95%CIs) of 0.80 (0.73-0.88), 0.85 (0.77-0.94), and 0.85 (0.76-0.95) in the highest quartile, respectively.

CONCLUSION

PA, including nonoccupational PA, low-intensity PA, and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA, was inversely associated with the risk of CKD, including DKD, HTN, and other CKD, and such associations were dose dependent.

Prioritising genetic findings for drug target identification and validation

The decreasing costs of high-throughput genetic sequencing and increasing abundance of sequenced genome data have paved the way for the use of genetic data in identifying and validating potential drug targets. However, the number of identified potential drug targets is often prohibitively large to experimentally evaluate in wet lab experiments, highlighting the need for systematic approaches for target prioritisation. In this review, we discuss principles of genetically guided drug development, specifically addressing loss-of-function analysis, colocalization and Mendelian randomisation (MR), and the contexts in which each may be most suitable. We subsequently present a range of biomedical resources which can be used to annotate and prioritise disease-associated proteins identified by these studies including 1) ontologies to map genes, proteins, and disease, 2) resources for determining the druggability of a potential target, 3) tissue and cell expression of the gene encoding the potential target, and 4) key biological pathways involving the potential target. We illustrate these concepts through a worked example, identifying a prioritised set of plasma proteins associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We identified five proteins with strong genetic support for involvement with NAFLD: CYB5A, NT5C, NCAN, TGFBI and DAPK2. All of the identified proteins were expressed in both liver and adipose tissues, with TGFBI and DAPK2 being potentially druggable. In conclusion, the current review provides an overview of genetic evidence for drug target identification, and how biomedical databases can be used to provide actionable prioritisation, fully informing downstream experimental validation.

Development and evaluation of a polygenic risk score for lung cancer in never-smoking women: A large-scale prospective Chinese cohort study

The proportion of lung cancer in never smokers is rising, especially among Asian women, but there is no effective early detection tool. Here, we developed a polygenic risk score (PRS), which may help to identify the population with higher risk of lung cancer in never-smoking women. We first performed a large GWAS meta-analysis (8595 cases and 8275 controls) to systematically identify the susceptibility loci for lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women and then generated a PRS using GWAS datasets. Furthermore, we evaluated the utility and effectiveness of PRS in an independent Chinese prospective cohort comprising 55 266 individuals. The GWAS meta-analysis identified eight known loci and a novel locus (5q11.2) at the genome-wide statistical significance level of P < 5 × 10-8 . Based on the summary statistics of GWAS, we derived a polygenic risk score including 21 variants (PRS-21) for lung cancer in never-smoking women. Furthermore, PRS-21 had a hazard ratio (HR) per SD of 1.29 (95% CI = 1.18-1.41) in the prospective cohort. Compared with participants who had a low genetic risk, those with an intermediate (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.00-1.72) and high (HR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.56-2.80) genetic risk had a significantly higher risk of incident lung cancer. The addition of PRS-21 to the conventional risk model yielded a modest significant improvement in AUC (0.697 to 0.711) and net reclassification improvement (24.2%). The GWAS-derived PRS-21 significantly improves the risk stratification and prediction accuracy for incident lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women, demonstrating the potential for identification of high-risk individuals and early screening.

Benefits and harms of polygenic risk scores in organised cancer screening programmes: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

While polygenic risk scores (PRS) could enable the streamlining of organised cancer screening programmes, its current discriminative ability is limited. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to trade-off the benefits and harms of PRS-stratified cancer screening in China.

Methods

The validated National Cancer Center (NCC) modelling framework for six cancers (lung, liver, breast, gastric, colorectum, and oesophagus) was used to simulate cancer incidence, progression, stage-specific cancer detection, and risk of death. We estimated the number of cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, number needed to screen (NNS), overdiagnosis, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of one-time PRS-stratified screening strategy (screening 25% of PRS-defined high-risk population) for a birth cohort at age 60 in 2025, compared with unstratified screening strategy (screening 25% of general population) and no screening strategy. We applied lifetime horizon, societal perspective, and 3% discount rate. An ICER less than $18,364 per QALY gained is considered cost-effective.

Findings

One-time cancer screening for population aged 60 was the most cost-effective strategy compared to screening at other ages. Compared with an unstratified screening strategy, the PRS-stratified screening strategy averted more cancer deaths (61,237 vs. 40,329), had a lower NNS to prevent one death (307 vs. 451), had a slightly higher overdiagnosis (14.1% vs. 13.8%), and associated with an additional 130,045 QALYs at an additional cost of $1942 million, over a lifetime horizon. The ICER for all six cancers combined was $14,930 per QALY gained, with the ICER varying from $7928 in colorectal cancer to $39,068 in liver cancer. ICER estimates were sensitive to changes in risk threshold and cost of PRS tools.

Interpretation

PRS-stratified screening strategy modestly improves clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of organised cancer screening programmes. Reducing the costs of polygenic risk stratification is needed before PRS implementation.

Funding

The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the Jing-jin-ji Special Projects for Basic Research Cooperation, and the Sanming Project of the Medicine in Shenzhen.

Correlates and consequences of atrial fibrillation in a prospective study of 25 000 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank

Aims

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is positively correlated with prior cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and CVD risk factors but is lower in Chinese than Europeans despite their higher burden of CVD. We examined the prevalence and prognosis of AF and other electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities in the China Kadoorie Biobank.

Methods and results

A random sample of 25 239 adults (mean age 59.5 years, 62% women) had a 12-lead ECG recorded and interpreted using a Mortara VERITAS™ algorithm in 2013-14. Participants were followed up for 5 years for incident stroke, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure (HF), and all CVD, overall and by CHA2DS2-VASc scores, age, sex, and area. Overall, 1.2% had AF, 13.6% had left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and 28.1% had ischaemia (two-thirds of AF cases also had ischaemia or LVH). The prevalence of AF increased with age, prior CVD, and levels of CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (0.5%, 1.3%, 2.1%, 2.9%, and 4.4% for scores <2, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5, respectively). Atrial fibrillation was associated with two-fold higher hazard ratios (HR) for CVD (2.15; 95% CI, 1.71-2.69) and stroke (1.88; 1.44-2.47) and a four-fold higher HR for HF (3.79; 2.21-6.49). The 5-year cumulative incidence of CVD was comparable for AF, prior CVD, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores ≥ 2 (36.7% vs. 36.2% vs. 37.7%, respectively) but was two-fold greater than for ischaemia (19.4%), LVH (18.0%), or normal ECG (14.1%), respectively.

Conclusion

The findings highlight the importance of screening for AF together with estimation of CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores for prevention of CVD in Chinese adults.

A systematic review of the performance of actigraphy in measuring sleep stages

The accuracy of actigraphy for sleep staging is assumed to be poor, but examination is limited. This systematic review aimed to assess the performance of actigraphy in sleep stage classification of adults. A systematic search was performed using MEDLINE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and Embase databases. We identified eight studies that compared sleep architecture estimates between wrist-worn actigraphy and polysomnography. Large heterogeneity was found with respect to how sleep stages were grouped, and the choice of metrics used to evaluate performance. Quantitative synthesis was not possible, so we performed a narrative synthesis of the literature. From the limited number of studies, we found that actigraphy-based sleep staging had some ability to classify different sleep stages compared with polysomnography.

Associations of diabetes, circulating protein biomarkers, and risk of pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with higher risk of pancreatic cancer (PC), but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood.

METHODS

We conducted a case-subcohort study involving 610 PC cases and 623 subcohort participants with 92 protein biomarkers measured in baseline plasma samples. Genetically-instrumented T2D was derived using 86 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), including insulin resistance (IR) SNPs.

RESULTS

In observational analyses of 623 subcohort participants (mean age, 52 years; 61% women), T2D was positively associated with 13 proteins (SD difference: IL6: 0.52 [0.23-0.81]; IL10: 0.41 [0.12-0.70]), of which 8 were nominally associated with incident PC. The 8 proteins potentially mediated 36.9% (18.7-75.0%) of the association between T2D and PC. In MR, no associations were observed for genetically-determined T2D with proteins, but there were positive associations of genetically-determined IR with IL6 and IL10 (SD difference: 1.23 [0.05-2.41] and 1.28 [0.31-2.24]). In two-sample MR, fasting insulin was associated with both IL6 and PC, but no association was observed between IL6 and PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Proteomics were likely to explain the association between T2D and PC, but were not causal mediators. Elevated fasting insulin driven by insulin resistance might explain the associations of T2D, proteomics, and PC.

Diabetes and chronic kidney disease in Chinese adults: a population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Cohort evidence of the association of diabetes mellitus (DM) with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. Previous studies often describe patients with kidney disease and diabetes as diabetic kidney disease (DKD) or CKD, ignoring other subtypes. The present study aimed to assess the prospective association of diabetes status (no diabetes, pre-diabetes, screened diabetes, previously diagnosed controlled/uncontrolled diabetes with/without antidiabetic treatment) and random plasma glucose (RPG) with CKD risk (including CKD subtypes) among Chinese adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The present study included 472 545 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank, using baseline information on diabetes and RPG. The incident CKD and its subtypes were collected through linkage with the national health insurance system during follow-up. Cox regression models were used to calculate the HR and 95% CI.

RESULTS

During 11.8 years of mean follow-up, 5417 adults developed CKD. Screened plus previously diagnosed diabetes was positively associated with CKD (HR=4.52, 95% CI 4.23 to 4.83), DKD (HR=33.85, 95% CI 29.56 to 38.76), and glomerulonephritis (HR=1.66, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.97). In those with previously diagnosed diabetes, participants with uncontrolled diabetes represented higher risks of CKD, DKD, and glomerulonephritis compared with those with controlled RPG. The risk of DKD was found to rise in participants with pre-diabetes and increased with the elevated RPG level, even in those without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Chinese adults, diabetes was positively associated with CKD, DKD, and glomerulonephritis. Screen-detected and uncontrolled DM had a high risk of CKD, and pre-diabetes was associated with a greater risk of DKD, highlighting the significance of lifelong glycemic management.

Multi-Omic Blood Biomarkers as Dynamic Risk Predictors in Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease

Late-onset Alzheimer's disease is the leading cause of dementia worldwide, accounting for a growing burden of morbidity and mortality. Diagnosing Alzheimer's disease before symptoms are established is clinically challenging, but would provide therapeutic windows for disease-modifying interventions. Blood biomarkers, including genetics, proteins and metabolites, are emerging as powerful predictors of Alzheimer's disease at various timepoints within the disease course, including at the preclinical stage. In this review, we discuss recent advances in such blood biomarkers for determining disease risk. We highlight how leveraging polygenic risk scores, based on genome-wide association studies, can help stratify individuals along their risk profile. We summarize studies analyzing protein biomarkers, as well as report on recent proteomic- and metabolomic-based prediction models. Finally, we discuss how a combination of multi-omic blood biomarkers can potentially be used in memory clinics for diagnosis and to assess the dynamic risk an individual has for developing Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Prospective study design and data analysis in UK Biobank

Population-based prospective studies, such as UK Biobank, are valuable for generating and testing hypotheses about the potential causes of human disease. We describe how UK Biobank's study design, data access policies, and approaches to statistical analysis can help to minimize error and improve the interpretability of research findings, with implications for other population-based prospective studies being established worldwide.

Lifetime cumulative effect of reproductive factors on ischaemic heart disease in a prospective cohort

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the association between lifetime oestrogen exposure and ischaemic heart disease (IHD), based on the hypothesis that higher lifetime oestrogen exposure is linked to lower cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

In 2004-2008, lifetime cumulative exposure to reproductive factors was assessed among postmenopausal females from the China Kadoorie Biobank using reproductive lifespan (RLS), endogenous oestrogen exposure (EEE) and total oestrogen exposure (TEE). EEE was calculated by subtracting pregnancy-related and contraceptive use duration from RLS, while TEE by adding up the same components except for lactation. Incident IHD during follow-up (2004-2015) was identified. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models estimated the HRs and 95% CIs of IHD for RLS, EEE and TEE.

RESULTS

Among 118 855 postmenopausal females, 13 162 (11.1%) developed IHD during a median follow-up of 8.9 years. The IHD incidence rates were 13.0, 12.1, 12.5, 13.8 per 1000 person-years for RLS Q1-Q4, 15.8, 12.6, 11.3, 12.1 per 1000 person-years for EEE Q1-Q4 and 13.7, 12.3, 12.2, 13.4 per 1000 person-years for TEE Q1-Q4. The highest quartile (Q4) of RLS and TEE were associated with lower risks of IHD (adjusted HR (aHR) 0.95, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.00 and 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97, respectively) compared with the lowest quartile (Q1). Longer EEE showed progressively lower risks of incident IHD (aHR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97; 0.88, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.93; 0.87, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92 for Q2-Q4 vs Q1).

CONCLUSIONS

Longer RLS, TEE and EEE were associated with lower risks of IHD among Chinese postmenopausal females.