Cohort Profile: The National FINRISK Study

Associations between genetically predicted concentrations of circulating inflammatory cytokines and the risk of ten pregnancy-related adverse outcomes: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Evidence from increasing observational studies indicates that systemic inflammation plays a role in pregnancy-related adverse events. However, the causal associations between them are largely unclear. To investigate the potential causal effects of genetically regulated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines on the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, we performed a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.

METHODS

The cis-protein quantitative trait loci for the 47 inflammatory cytokines derived from the latest genome-wide association studies (GWASs) consisting of 31,112 European individuals were used as the instrumental variables. The latest GWAS summary data for the ten adverse pregnancy events were obtained from the FinnGen project (samples ranging from 141,014 to 190,879). The inverse-variance weighted regression or Ward ratio was used as the primary MR analysis method. Sensitivity analyses based on the other five methods were performed to verify MR results. A replication MR analysis was conducted to further clarify the significant associations using data from the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

Twenty-three of the 220 associations were nominally significant (P < 0.05). Among them, seven robust associations survived the Bonferroni correction and passed sensitivity analyses, including positive associations of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1) with the risk of excessive vomiting in pregnancy, preeclampsia (PE), and pregnancy hypertension (PH), vascular endothelial growth factor with the risk of medical abortion, macrophage colony-stimulating factor (MCSF) with the risk of spontaneous abortion (SA), and an inverse association of macrophage inflammatory protein-1α with the risk of medical abortion. The associations of MCSF with SA, and sICAM-1 with both PE and PH were further confirmed in the replication analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides further evidence of the role of systemic inflammation, especially endothelial dysfunction in the pathology of adverse pregnancy events, and the identified cytokines warrant in-depth research to explore their underlying mechanisms of action and to evaluate their potential as targets for disease screening, prevention, and treatment in the future.

Time of sample collection is critical for the replicability of microbiome analyses

As the microbiome field moves from descriptive and associative research to mechanistic and interventional studies, being able to account for all confounding variables in the experimental design, which includes the maternal effect1, cage effect2, facility differences3, as well as laboratory and sample handling protocols4, is critical for interpretability of results. Despite significant procedural and bioinformatic improvements, unexplained variability and lack of replicability still occur. One underexplored factor is that the microbiome is dynamic and exhibits diurnal oscillations that can change microbiome composition5-7. In this retrospective analysis of 16S amplicon sequencing studies in male mice, we show that sample collection time affects the conclusions drawn from microbiome studies and its effect size is larger than those of a daily experimental intervention or dietary changes. The timing of divergence of the microbiome composition between experimental and control groups is unique to each experiment. Sample collection times as short as only 4 hours apart can lead to vastly different conclusions. Lack of consistency in the time of sample collection may explain poor cross-study replicability in microbiome research. The impact of diurnal rhythms on the outcomes and study design of other fields is unknown but likely significant.

Fetal cord plasma herpesviruses and preeclampsia: an observational cohort study

A previous study suggested that fetal inheritance of chromosomally integrated human herpesvirus 6 (ici-HHV6) is associated with the hypertensive pregnancy disorder preeclampsia (PE). We aimed to study this question utilizing cord plasma samples (n = 1276) of the Finnish Genetics of Preeclampsia Consortium (FINNPEC) cohort: 539 from a pregnancy with PE and 737 without. We studied these samples and 30 placentas from PE pregnancies by a multiplex qPCR for the DNAs of all nine human herpesviruses. To assess the population prevalence of iciHHV-6, we studied whole-genome sequencing data from blood-derived DNA of 3421 biobank subjects. Any herpes viral DNA was detected in only two (0.37%) PE and one (0.14%) control sample (OR 2.74, 95% CI 0.25-30.4). One PE sample contained iciHHV-6B and another HHV-7 DNA. The control's DNA was of iciHHV-6B; the fetus having growth restriction and preterm birth without PE diagnosis. Placentas showed no herpesviruses. In the biobank data, 3 of 3421 subjects (0.08%) had low level HHV-6B but no iciHHV-6. While iciHHV-6 proved extremely rare, both fetuses with iciHHV-6B were growth-restricted, preterm, and from a pregnancy with maternal hypertension. Our findings suggest that human herpesviruses are not a significant cause of PE, whereas iciHHV-6 may pose some fetal risk.

Multicentric Assessment of a Multimorbidity-Adjusted Disability Score to Stratify Depression-Related Risks Using Temporal Disease Maps: Instrument Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive management of multimorbidity can significantly benefit from advanced health risk assessment tools that facilitate value-based interventions, allowing for the assessment and prediction of disease progression. Our study proposes a novel methodology, the Multimorbidity-Adjusted Disability Score (MADS), which integrates disease trajectory methodologies with advanced techniques for assessing interdependencies among concurrent diseases. This approach is designed to better assess the clinical burden of clusters of interrelated diseases and enhance our ability to anticipate disease progression, thereby potentially informing targeted preventive care interventions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the MADS in stratifying patients into clinically relevant risk groups based on their multimorbidity profiles, which accurately reflect their clinical complexity and the probabilities of developing new associated disease conditions.

METHODS

In a retrospective multicentric cohort study, we developed the MADS by analyzing disease trajectories and applying Bayesian statistics to determine disease-disease probabilities combined with well-established disability weights. We used major depressive disorder (MDD) as a primary case study for this evaluation. We stratified patients into different risk levels corresponding to different percentiles of MADS distribution. We statistically assessed the association of MADS risk strata with mortality, health care resource use, and disease progression across 1 million individuals from Spain, the United Kingdom, and Finland.

RESULTS

The results revealed significantly different distributions of the assessed outcomes across the MADS risk tiers, including mortality rates; primary care visits; specialized care outpatient consultations; visits in mental health specialized centers; emergency room visits; hospitalizations; pharmacological and nonpharmacological expenditures; and dispensation of antipsychotics, anxiolytics, sedatives, and antidepressants (P<.001 in all cases). Moreover, the results of the pairwise comparisons between adjacent risk tiers illustrate a substantial and gradual pattern of increased mortality rate, heightened health care use, increased health care expenditures, and a raised pharmacological burden as individuals progress from lower MADS risk tiers to higher-risk tiers. The analysis also revealed an augmented risk of multimorbidity progression within the high-risk groups, aligned with a higher incidence of new onsets of MDD-related diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

The MADS seems to be a promising approach for predicting health risks associated with multimorbidity. It might complement current risk assessment state-of-the-art tools by providing valuable insights for tailored epidemiological impact analyses of clusters of interrelated diseases and by accurately assessing multimorbidity progression risks. This study paves the way for innovative digital developments to support advanced health risk assessment strategies. Further validation is required to generalize its use beyond the initial case study of MDD.

Job-related exhaustion risk variant in UST is associated with dementia and DNA methylation

Previous genome-wide association and replication study for job-related exhaustion indicated a risk variant, rs13219957 in the UST gene. Epidemiological studies suggest connection of stress-related conditions and dementia risk. Therefore, we first studied association of rs13219957 and register-based incident dementia using survival models in the Finnish National FINRISK study surveys (N = 26,693). The AA genotype of rs13219957 was significantly associated with 40% increased risk of all-cause dementia. Then we analysed the UST locus association with brain pathology in the Vantaa 85+ cohort and found association with tau pathology (Braak stage) but not with amyloid pathology. Finally, in the functional analyses, rs13219957 showed a highly significant association with two DNA methylation sites of UST, and UST expression. Thus, the results suggest a common risk variant for a stress-related condition and dementia. Mechanisms to mediate the connection may include differential DNA methylation and transcriptional regulation of UST.

Association between butyrate-producing gut bacteria and the risk of infectious disease hospitalisation: results from two observational, population-based microbiome studies

BACKGROUND

Microbiota alterations are common in patients hospitalised for severe infections, and preclinical models have shown that anaerobic butyrate-producing gut bacteria protect against systemic infections. However, the relationship between microbiota disruptions and increased susceptibility to severe infections in humans remains unclear. We investigated the relationship between gut microbiota and the risk of future infection-related hospitalisation in two large population-based cohorts.

METHODS

In this observational microbiome study, gut microbiota were characterised using 16S rRNA gene sequencing in independent population-based cohorts from the Netherlands (HELIUS study; derivation cohort) and Finland (FINRISK 2002 study; validation cohort). HELIUS was conducted in Amsterdam, Netherlands, and included adults (aged 18-70 years at inclusion) who were randomly sampled from the municipality register of Amsterdam. FINRISK 2002 was conducted in six regions in Finland and is a population survey that included a random sample of adults (aged 25-74 years). In both cohorts, participants completed questionnaires, underwent a physical examination, and provided a faecal sample at inclusion (Jan 3, 2013, to Nov 27, 2015, for HELIUS participants and Jan 21 to April 19, 2002, for FINRISK participants. For inclusion in our study, a faecal sample needed to be provided and successfully sequenced, and national registry data needed to be available. Primary predictor variables were microbiota composition, diversity, and relative abundance of butyrate-producing bacteria. Our primary outcome was hospitalisation or mortality due to any infectious disease during 5-7-year follow-up after faecal sample collection, based on national registry data. We examined associations between microbiota and infection risk using microbial ecology and Cox proportional hazards.

FINDINGS

We profiled gut microbiota from 10 699 participants (4248 [39·7%] from the derivation cohort and 6451 [60·3%] from the validation cohort). 602 (5·6%) participants (152 [3·6%] from the derivation cohort; 450 [7·0%] from the validation cohort) were hospitalised or died due to infections during follow-up. Gut microbiota composition of these participants differed from those without hospitalisation for infections (derivation p=0·041; validation p=0·0002). Specifically, higher relative abundance of butyrate-producing bacteria was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalisation for infections (derivation cohort cause-specific hazard ratio 0·75 [95% CI 0·60-0·94] per 10% increase in butyrate producers, p=0·013; validation cohort 0·86 [0·77-0·96] per 10% increase, p=0·0077). These associations remained unchanged following adjustment for demographics, lifestyle, antibiotic exposure, and comorbidities.

INTERPRETATION

Gut microbiota composition, specifically colonisation with butyrate-producing bacteria, was associated with protection against hospitalisation for infectious diseases in the general population across two independent European cohorts. Further studies should investigate whether modulation of the microbiome can reduce the risk of severe infections.

FUNDING

Amsterdam UMC, Porticus, National Institutes of Health, Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), and Leducq Foundation.

Genetic propensity to depression and the role of partnership status

Social relationships and genetic propensity are known to affect depression risk, but their joint effects are poorly understood. This study examined the association of a polygenic index for depression with time to antidepressant (AD) purchasing and the moderating role of partnership status. We analysed data from 30,192 Finnish individuals who participated in the FINRISK and Health 2000 and 2011 surveys and had register and medication data available. We measured genetic risk with a polygenic index (PGI) for depression. Depression was assessed through antidepressant purchases. We estimated an accelerated failure time model with partnership status as time-varying and different sets of confounder adjustments. The predicted cumulative hazard of antidepressant purchasing varied across PGI and partnership status. At follow-up year 10, being widowed was associated with the largest cumulative hazard of 0.34 (95%CI: 0.28-0.39) in the 80th and 0.20 (95%CI: 0.17-0.23) in the 20th PGI percentile, followed by divorced, single, married and cohabiting. Cohabiting was associated with a cumulative hazard of 0.19 (95%CI: 0.16-0.23) in the 80th and 0.11 (95%CI: 0.1-0.13) in the 20th PGI percentile. We found no evidence for an interaction between the PGI and partnership status. Results were robust to different model specifications, gender stratification, and the choice of PGI. Although antidepressant purchasing correlated with both PGI and partnership status, we found no evidence that partnership status could partially offset or amplify the association between the PGI for depression and antidepressant purchasing incidence.

Association of adiposity with morbidity in Finnish adults: A register-based follow-up study

AIMS

The aims of this study were to update risk estimates of obesity related co-morbidities and to provide evidence of the importance of obesity prevention to decision makers.

METHODS

The study included 25- to 74-year-old participants (N=22,977) of the National FINRISK Studies in 1997, 2002 and 2007. Body mass index was calculated from measured weight and height at baseline. Data on morbidity were ascertained via linkage to the National Hospital Discharge Register, the Cancer Register and the records of the Social Insurance Institution of Finland until the end of year 2018. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate associations between weight status and the risk of the end-point diseases during follow-up, with adjustment for age and smoking.

RESULTS

At baseline, 31% of participants had at least one of the investigated diseases. Overweight, obesity and severe obesity were associated with type 2 diabetes, gout, gallbladder diseases and knee and hip osteoarthritis during the follow-up in both men and women. The risk of coronary heart disease was increased in men who were overweight, obese and severely obese and in women who were obese and severely obese. Risk of asthma was increased only among women who were obese and severely obese. No associations were found between obesity and breast, prostate or colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The study showed a strong relationship between excess body weight and the prevalence and incidence of several diseases. Obesity prevention is essential to reduce disease burden in the future.

Cross-continental national nutrition surveys: a narrative review

Many countries use national nutrition surveys (NNSs) to assess their population's health and nutrition needs. However, NNS aims, approaches, tools, and measurements vary among countries. To date, there has been no review evaluating the NNSs and their practices worldwide to help conduct future NSSs. Therefore, this narrative review was conducted to 1) explore and tabulate current NNSs in five continents (Asia, Europe, Africa, North America, and Australia) and 2) help lay the foundation for establishing clear guidelines for future NNSs. The NNSs were identified using two approaches. First, an electronic database search was conducted with key terms in PubMed database. Second, a general web-based search on the survey webpages of governmental organizations was conducted using the same key terms to identify eligible surveys. The review included general adult population (≥ 18 years) with a cross-sectional design, excluding NNSs related to household-only surveys, specific age groups, or insufficient sample sizes. A total of 41 NNSs were identified in 37 countries across four continents: Asia (n = 15), Europe (n = 21), North America (n = 3), and Australia (n = 2). Broad differences between the surveys were identified, including survey purposes and designs, definitions of geographic areas and target groups, and dietary assessments. Currently, there are 26 ongoing NNSs, while 15 have ended. Among the ongoing NNSs, the cycles of the surveys were either at regular intervals (n = 8) or irregular intervals (n = 8). Of the 41 surveys, 24-h dietary recalls were used in 27 surveys, while only 6 surveys used diet diaries and 8 surveys relied on FFQs. Some surveys (n = 17) utilized multiple tools to assess dietary intake. Most of the surveys that assessed biochemical status (n = 12) focused on blood glucose, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and lipid status, whereas some surveys (n = 6) tested for vitamin and mineral status in blood and/or urine samples. The review identified key characteristics, time frames, sampling methods, and dietary and physical assessment methods obtained from different surveys worldwide. The information organized in this review will be important for researchers, policymakers, and public health programme developers in developing and improving NNS.

Iron status in Dutch and Finnish blood donor and general populations: A cross-cohort comparison study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Blood donors are at risk of developing iron deficiency (ID) (ferritin <15 μg/L, World Health Organization definition). Blood services implement different strategies to mitigate this risk. Although in Finland risk group-based iron supplementation is in place, no iron supplementation is provided in the Netherlands. We aim to describe differences in ferritin levels and ID prevalence in donor and general populations in these countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Six cohorts, stratified based on sex, and for women age, in the Netherlands and Finland were used to evaluate differences in ferritin levels and ID between donor populations (Donor InSight-III and FinDonor 10,000) and general populations (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease [PREVEND], FinRisk 1997 and Health 2000) and newly registered Dutch donors. Multivariable logistic regression was used to quantify associations of various explanatory factors with ID.

RESULTS

In total, 13,443 Dutch and 13,933 Finnish subjects were included. Donors, except for women aged ≤50 years old in Finland, had lower median ferritin levels compared with the general population and new donors. Dutch regular blood donors had higher or similar prevalence of ID as compared with the Dutch general population, including new donors. In contrast, Finnish donors showed similar prevalence of ID compared with the general population, except for a markedly lower prevalence in ≤50-year-old women who routinely receive iron supplements when donating.

CONCLUSION

Iron status in blood donors differs from that in the general population. The Finnish blood service donor management policy, for example, iron supplementation for risk groups, seemingly protects young female blood donors from developing ID.

Association between active commuting and low-grade inflammation: a population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest that physical activity lowers circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. However, little is known about the association between regular active commuting, i.e. walking or cycling to work, and CRP concentrations. This study examines whether active commuting is associated with lower CRP.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study using population-based FINRISK data from 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012. Participants were working adults living in Finland (n = 6208; mean age = 44 years; 53.6% women). We used linear and additive models adjusted for potential confounders to analyze whether daily active commuting, defined as the time spent walking or cycling to work, was associated with lower high-sensitivity (hs-) CRP serum concentrations compared with passive commuting.

RESULTS

We observed that daily active commuting for 45 min or more (vs. none) was associated with lower hs-CRP [% mean difference in the main model: -16.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -25.6% to -7.0%), and results were robust to adjustment for leisure-time and occupational physical activity, as well as diet. Similarly, active commuting for 15-29 min daily was associated with lower hs-CRP in the main model (-7.4; 95% CI -14.1 to -0.2), but the association attenuated to null after further adjustments. In subgroup analyses, associations were only observed for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Active commuting for at least 45 min a day was associated with lower levels of low-grade inflammation. Promoting active modes of transport may lead not only to reduced emissions from motorized traffic but also to population-level health benefits.

High-Resolution Genotyping of Formalin-Fixed Tissue Accurately Estimates Polygenic Risk Scores in Human Diseases

Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues stored in biobanks and pathology archives are a vast but underutilized source for molecular studies on different diseases. Beyond being the "gold standard" for preservation of diagnostic human tissues, FFPE samples retain similar genetic information as matching blood samples, which could make FFPE samples an ideal resource for genomic analysis. However, research on this resource has been hindered by the perception that DNA extracted from FFPE samples is of poor quality. Here, we show that germline disease-predisposing variants and polygenic risk scores (PRS) can be identified from FFPE normal tissue (FFPE-NT) DNA with high accuracy. We optimized the performance of FFPE-NT DNA on a genome-wide array containing 657,675 variants. Via a series of testing and validation phases, we established a protocol for FFPE-NT genotyping with results comparable with blood genotyping. The median call rate of FFPE-NT samples in the validation phase was 99.85% (range 98.26%-99.94%) and median concordance with matching blood samples was 99.79% (range 98.85%-99.9%). We also demonstrated that a rare pathogenic PALB2 genetic variant predisposing to cancer can be correctly identified in FFPE-NT samples. We further imputed the FFPE-NT genotype data and calculated the FFPE-NT genome-wide PRS in 3 diseases and 4 disease risk variables. In all cases, FFPE-NT and matching blood PRS were highly concordant (all Pearson's r > 0.95). The ability to precisely genotype FFPE-NT on a genome-wide array enables translational genomics applications of archived FFPE-NT samples with the possibility to link to corresponding phenotypes and longitudinal health data.

Partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

Shifting from animal-based to plant-based diets could reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. Currently, the impacts of these dietary shifts on CRC risk are ill-defined. Therefore, we examined partial substitutions of red or processed meat with whole grains, vegetables, fruits or a combination of these in relation to CRC risk in Finnish adults.

METHODS

We pooled five Finnish cohorts, resulting in 43 788 participants aged ≥ 25 years (79% men). Diet was assessed by validated food frequency questionnaires at study enrolment. We modelled partial substitutions of red (100 g/week) or processed meat (50 g/week) with corresponding amounts of plant-based foods. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) for CRC were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models and pooled together using random-effects models. Adjustments included age, sex, energy intake and other relevant confounders.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 28.8 years, 1124 CRCs were diagnosed. We observed small risk reductions when red meat was substituted with vegetables (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 - 0.99), fruits (0.97, 0.94 - 0.99), or whole grains, vegetables and fruits combined (0.97, 0.95 - 0.99). For processed meat, these substitutions yielded 1% risk reductions. Substituting red or processed meat with whole grains was associated with a decreased CRC risk only in participants with < median whole grain intake (0.92, 0.86 - 0.98; 0.96, 0.93 - 0.99, respectively; pinteraction=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Even small, easily implemented substitutions of red or processed meat with whole grains, vegetables or fruits could lower CRC risk in a population with high meat consumption. These findings broaden our insight into dietary modifications that could foster CRC primary prevention.

Dietary inflammatory index in relation to salivary cytokine concentrations and periodontitis: A cross-sectional analysis

AIM

To examine the associations of dietary inflammatory index (DII) with salivary cytokine concentrations and periodontitis after controlling for body mass index (BMI), socio-demographic factors and lifestyle.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Subgroups from two Finnish surveys, DILGOM 2007 and Health 2000, were included (total n = 727). The DII scores were calculated based on a food frequency questionnaire. Periodontal status was assessed with a cumulative risk score in DILGOM 2007 and by pocket depth measurement in Health 2000. From saliva, interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-1 receptor antagonist, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentrations were measured.

RESULTS

The DII scores did not differ between non-periodontitis and periodontitis participants in pairwise comparison. After adjusting for energy intake, periodontal status, BMI, age, education level, smoking habit and physical activity, DII was not associated with salivary cytokine concentrations. After adjusting for salivary cytokine levels and other confounding factors, DII was associated with periodontitis in the Health 2000 subgroup but not in the DILGOM 2007 subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

The current data support the evidence that diet is not associated with salivary cytokine levels but may be associated with periodontitis. The association observed between diet and periodontitis is related to factors other than diet-dependent inflammatory tendency in the oral cavity.

Integration of polygenic and gut metagenomic risk prediction for common diseases

Multiomics has shown promise in noninvasive risk profiling and early detection of various common diseases. In the present study, in a prospective population-based cohort with ~18 years of e-health record follow-up, we investigated the incremental and combined value of genomic and gut metagenomic risk assessment compared with conventional risk factors for predicting incident coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), Alzheimer disease and prostate cancer. We found that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) improved prediction over conventional risk factors for all diseases. Gut microbiome scores improved predictive capacity over baseline age for CAD, T2D and prostate cancer. Integrated risk models of PRSs, gut microbiome scores and conventional risk factors achieved the highest predictive performance for all diseases studied compared with models based on conventional risk factors alone. The present study demonstrates that integrated PRSs and gut metagenomic risk models improve the predictive value over conventional risk factors for common chronic diseases.

An immunogenetic basis for lung cancer risk

Cancer risk is influenced by inherited mutations, DNA replication errors, and environmental factors. However, the influence of genetic variation in immunosurveillance on cancer risk is not well understood. Leveraging population-level data from the UK Biobank and FinnGen, we show that heterozygosity at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-II loci is associated with reduced lung cancer risk in smokers. Fine-mapping implicated amino acid heterozygosity in the HLA-II peptide binding groove in reduced lung cancer risk, and single-cell analyses showed that smoking drives enrichment of proinflammatory lung macrophages and HLA-II+ epithelial cells. In lung cancer, widespread loss of HLA-II heterozygosity (LOH) favored loss of alleles with larger neopeptide repertoires. Thus, our findings nominate genetic variation in immunosurveillance as a critical risk factor for lung cancer.

Functional EPAS1/HIF2A missense variant is associated with hematocrit in Andean highlanders

Hypoxia-inducible factor pathway genes are linked to adaptation in both human and nonhuman highland species. EPAS1, a notable target of hypoxia adaptation, is associated with relatively lower hemoglobin concentration in Tibetans. We provide evidence for an association between an adaptive EPAS1 variant (rs570553380) and the same phenotype of relatively low hematocrit in Andean highlanders. This Andean-specific missense variant is present at a modest frequency in Andeans and absent in other human populations and vertebrate species except the coelacanth. CRISPR-base-edited human cells with this variant exhibit shifts in hypoxia-regulated gene expression, while metabolomic analyses reveal both genotype and phenotype associations and validation in a lowland population. Although this genocopy of relatively lower hematocrit in Andean highlanders parallels well-replicated findings in Tibetans, it likely involves distinct pathway responses based on a protein-coding versus noncoding variants, respectively. These findings illuminate how unique variants at EPAS1 contribute to the same phenotype in Tibetans and a subset of Andean highlanders despite distinct evolutionary trajectories.

Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of solid cancers - A prospective pooled multi-cohort register study

Smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical inactivity are key lifestyle risk factors for cancer. Previously these have been mostly examined singly or combined as an index, assuming independent and equivalent effects to cancer risk. The aim of our study was to systematically examine the joint pairwise and interactive effects of these lifestyle factors on the risk of a first solid primary cancer in a multi-cohort prospective setting. We used pooled data from seven Finnish health survey studies during 1972-2015, with 197,551 participants diagnosed with 16,373 solid malignant primary tumors during follow-up. Incidence of any cancer was analyzed separately without and with lung cancers using Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. When excluding lung cancer, the highest risk of any cancer in men was observed for smokers with a BMI of ≥25 kg/m2 (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.25-1.48) and in women for smokers consuming alcohol (HR 1.22, 1.14-1.30). No statistically significant interactions between any studied risk factor pairs were observed. When including lung cancer, the highest HRs among men were observed for smokers who consume alcohol (HR 1.72, 1.57-1.89) and among women for smokers who were physically inactive (HR 1.38, 1.27-1.49). Smoking combined with other lifestyle factors at any exposure level resulted in highest pairwise risks, both in men and women. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention, but also the importance of preventing obesity and reducing alcohol consumption.

Role of Gut Microbiota in Statin-Associated New-Onset Diabetes-A Cross-Sectional and Prospective Analysis of the FINRISK 2002 Cohort

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidemia is treated effectively with statins, but treatment has the potential to induce new-onset type-2 diabetes. Gut microbiota may contribute to this outcome variability. We assessed the associations of gut microbiota diversity and composition with statins. Bacterial associations with statin-associated new-onset type-2 diabetes (T2D) risk were also prospectively evaluated.

METHODS

We examined shallow-shotgun-sequenced fecal samples from 5755 individuals in the FINRISK-2002 population cohort with a 17+-year-long register-based follow-up. Alpha-diversity was quantified using Shannon index and beta-diversity with Aitchison distance. Species-specific differential abundances were analyzed using general multivariate regression. Prospective associations were assessed with Cox regression. Applicable results were validated using gradient boosting.

RESULTS

Statin use associated with differing taxonomic composition (R2, 0.02%; q=0.02) and 13 differentially abundant species in fully adjusted models (MaAsLin; q<0.05). The strongest positive association was with Clostridium sartagoforme (β=0.37; SE=0.13; q=0.02) and the strongest negative association with Bacteroides cellulosilyticus (β=-0.31; SE=0.11; q=0.02). Twenty-five microbial features had significant associations with incident T2D in statin users, of which only Bacteroides vulgatus (HR, 1.286 [1.136-1.457]; q=0.03) was consistent regardless of model adjustment. Finally, higher statin-associated T2D risk was seen with [Ruminococcus] torques (ΔHRstatins, +0.11; q=0.03), Blautia obeum (ΔHRstatins, +0.06; q=0.01), Blautia sp. KLE 1732 (ΔHRstatins, +0.05; q=0.01), and beta-diversity principal component 1 (ΔHRstatin, +0.07; q=0.03) but only when adjusting for demographic covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin users have compositionally differing microbiotas from nonusers. The human gut microbiota is associated with incident T2D risk in statin users and possibly has additive effects on statin-associated new-onset T2D risk.

Pulmonary primary oxysterol and bile acid synthesis as a predictor of outcomes in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare and fatal vascular disease with heterogeneous clinical manifestations. To date, molecular determinants underlying the development of PAH and related outcomes remain poorly understood. Herein, we identify pulmonary primary oxysterol and bile acid synthesis (PPOBAS) as a previously unrecognized pathway central to PAH pathophysiology. Mass spectrometry analysis of 2,756 individuals across five independent studies revealed 51 distinct circulating metabolites that predicted PAH-related mortality and were enriched within the PPOBAS pathway. Across independent single-center PAH studies, PPOBAS pathway metabolites were also associated with multiple cardiopulmonary measures of PAH-specific pathophysiology. Furthermore, PPOBAS metabolites were found to be increased in human and rodent PAH lung tissue and specifically produced by pulmonary endothelial cells, consistent with pulmonary origin. Finally, a poly-metabolite risk score comprising 13 PPOBAS molecules was found to not only predict PAH-related mortality but also outperform current clinical risk scores. This work identifies PPOBAS as specifically altered within PAH and establishes needed prognostic biomarkers for guiding therapy in PAH.

Development of non-communicable disease risk factors in Finland: projections up to 2040

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes).

METHODS

Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method.

RESULTS

Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation - that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.

Contribution of smoking change to 45-year trend in prevalence of chronic bronchitis in Finland

AIMS

Tobacco smoking has been identified as the most important risk factor of chronic bronchitis. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of smoking to the trends in prevalence of chronic bronchitis among men and women in Finland.

METHODS

For this purpose, we analysed questionnaires included in national FINRISK and FinHealth studies conducted between 1972 and 2017 in 5-year intervals. A total of 26,475 men and 28,684 women aged 30-59 years were included in the analysis. In addition to smoking, age and socioeconomic status were used as risk factors in the logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Smoking in Finland has declined from 51% to 23% in men between 1972 and 2017. In women, it increased from 11% in 1972 to 23% in 2002, with a following decrease to 16% in 2017. The prevalence of chronic bronchitis has generally followed the trend of smoking. The population attributable risk was 60% in men and 49% in women. A decrease in chronic bronchitis was observed in male never-smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking is currently declining in Finland in both men and women. As result, the prevalence of chronic bronchitis is declining and it is approaching baseline independent of smoking. The decrease in never-smokers has yet to be explained.

Nutri-microbiome epidemiology, an emerging field to disentangle the interplay between nutrition and microbiome for human health

Diet and nutrition have a substantial impact on the human microbiome, and interact with the microbiome, especially gut microbiome, to modulate various diseases and health status. Microbiome research has also guided the nutrition field to a more integrative direction, becoming an essential component of the rising area of precision nutrition. In this review, we provide a broad insight into the interplay among diet, nutrition, microbiome, and microbial metabolites for their roles in the human health. Among the microbiome epidemiological studies regarding the associations of diet and nutrition with microbiome and its derived metabolites, we summarize those most reliable findings and highlight evidence for the relationships between diet and disease-associated microbiome and its functional readout. Then, the latest advances of the microbiome-based precision nutrition research and multidisciplinary integration are described. Finally, we discuss several outstanding challenges and opportunities in the field of nutri-microbiome epidemiology.

Ischaemic stroke patients present sex differences in gut microbiota

BACKGROUND

Gut microbiota plays a role in the pathophysiology of ischaemic stroke (IS) through the bidirectional gut-brain axis. Nevertheless, little is known about sex-specific microbiota signatures in IS occurrence.

METHODS

A total of 89 IS patients and 12 healthy controls were enrolled. We studied the taxonomic differences of the gut microbiota between men and women with IS by shotgun metagenomic sequencing. To evaluate the causal effect of several bacteria on IS risk, we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) with inverse-variance weighting (IVW) using genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) summary statistics from two cohorts of 5959 subjects with genetic and microbiota data and 1,296,908 subjects with genetic and IS data, respectively.

RESULTS

α-Diversity analysis measured using Observed Species (p = 0.017), Chao1 (p = 0.009) and Abundance-based Coverage Estimator (p = 0.012) indexes revealed that IS men have a higher species richness compared with IS women. Moreover, we found sex-differences in IS patients in relation to the phylum Fusobacteria, class Fusobacteriia, order Fusobacteriales and family Fusobacteriaceae (all Bonferroni-corrected p < 0.001). MR confirmed that increased Fusobacteriaceae levels in the gut are causally associated with an increased risk of IS (IVW p = 0.02, β = 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is the first to indicate that there are gut microbiome differences between men and women with IS, identifying high levels of Fusobacteriaceae in women as a specific risk factor for IS. Incorporating sex stratification analysis is important in the design, analysis and interpretation of studies on stroke and the gut microbiota.

Microbiome-based risk prediction in incident heart failure: a community challenge

Heart failure (HF) is a major public health problem. Early identification of at-risk individuals could allow for interventions that reduce morbidity or mortality. The community-based FINRISK Microbiome DREAM challenge (synapse.org/finrisk) evaluated the use of machine learning approaches on shotgun metagenomics data obtained from fecal samples to predict incident HF risk over 15 years in a population cohort of 7231 Finnish adults (FINRISK 2002, n=559 incident HF cases). Challenge participants used synthetic data for model training and testing. Final models submitted by seven teams were evaluated in the real data. The two highest-scoring models were both based on Cox regression but used different feature selection approaches. We aggregated their predictions to create an ensemble model. Additionally, we refined the models after the DREAM challenge by eliminating phylum information. Models were also evaluated at intermediate timepoints and they predicted 10-year incident HF more accurately than models for 5- or 15-year incidence. We found that bacterial species, especially those linked to inflammation, are predictive of incident HF. This highlights the role of the gut microbiome as a potential driver of inflammation in HF pathophysiology. Our results provide insights into potential modeling strategies of microbiome data in prospective cohort studies. Overall, this study provides evidence that incorporating microbiome information into incident risk models can provide important biological insights into the pathogenesis of HF.

Persistent organic pollutants associate with liver disease in a Finnish general population sample

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have multiple adverse effects on human health. Recent studies show a possible association with liver disease, but population-based data are scarce. In this population-based study, we studied the associations between POPs and biomarkers of liver disease and incident liver disease.

METHODS

This study consisted of 2789 adults that participated in the environmental toxin subset of the Finnish health-examination survey, FINRISK 2007. Toxins were measured from serum samples, and standard liver tests and dynamic aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio (dAAR) were measured as biomarkers of liver function. Associations between POPs and the biomarkers were then analysed using linear regression. Associations between POPs and incident liver disease (n = 36) were analysed by Cox regression.

RESULTS

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and several perfluorinated alkyl substances exhibited statistically significant positive associations with several biomarkers of liver injury (betacoefficient per SD 0.04-0.14, p < 0.05). These associations were stronger in subgroups of individuals with obesity or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. OCPs, PCBs and perfluoro-octanoic acid also had significant positive associations with dAAR, which can be used to predict risk of incident severe liver outcomes (beta coefficient per SD 0.05-0.08, p < 0.05). OCPs and PCBs were also significantly and positively associated with incident liver disease (hazard ratio per SD 1.82 95% CI 1.21-2.73, p < 0.01 and hazard ratio per SD 1.69, 95% CI 1.07-2.68, p < 0.05 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Several POPs show positive associations with markers of liver injury and incident liver disease, suggesting that environmental toxins are important risk factors for chronic liver disease.

The interactions between host genome and gut microbiome increase the risk of psychiatric disorders: Mendelian randomization and biological annotation

BACKGROUND

The correlation between human gut microbiota and psychiatric diseases has long been recognized. Based on the heritability of the microbiome, genome-wide association studies on human genome and gut microbiome (mbGWAS) have revealed important host-microbiome interactions. However, establishing causal relationships between specific gut microbiome features and psychological conditions remains challenging due to insufficient sample sizes of previous studies of mbGWAS.

METHODS

Cross-cohort meta-analysis (via METAL) and multi-trait analysis (via MTAG) were used to enhance the statistical power of mbGWAS for identifying genetic variants and genes. Using two large mbGWAS studies (7,738 and 5,959 participants respectively) and12 disease-specific studies from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC), we performed bidirectional two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) analyses between microbial features and psychiatric diseases (up to 500,199 individuals). Additionally, we conducted downstream gene- and gene-set-based analyses to investigate the shared biology linking gut microbiota and psychiatric diseases.

RESULTS

METAL and MTAG conducted in mbGWAS could boost power for gene prioritization and MR analysis. Increases in the number of lead SNPs and mapped genes were witnessed in 13/15 species and 5/10 genera after using METAL, and MTAG analysis gained an increase in sample size equivalent to expanding the original samples from 7% to 63%. Following METAL use, we identified a positive association between Bacteroides faecis and ADHD (OR, 1.09; 95 %CI, 1.02-1.16; P = 0.008). Bacteroides eggerthii and Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron were observed to be positively associated with PTSD (OR, 1.11; 95 %CI, 1.03-1.20; P = 0.007; OR, 1.11; 95 %CI, 1.01-1.23; P = 0.03). These findings remained stable across statistical models and sensitivity analyses. No genetic liabilities to psychiatric diseases may alter the abundance of gut microorganisms.Using biological annotation, we identified that those genes contributing to microbiomes (e.g., GRIN2A and RBFOX1) are expressed and enriched in human brain tissues.

CONCLUSIONS

Our statistical genetics strategy helps to enhance the power of mbGWAS, and our genetic findings offer new insights into biological pleiotropy and causal relationship between microbiota and psychiatric diseases.

Polygenic Prediction of Education and Its Role in the Intergenerational Transmission of Education: Cohort Changes Among Finnish Men and Women Born in 1925-1989

Major changes in the educational distribution of the population and in institutions over the past century have affected the societal barriers to educational attainment. These changes can possibly result in stronger genetic associations. Using genetically informed, population-representative Finnish surveys linked to administrative registers, we investigated the polygenic associations and intergenerational transmission of education for those born between 1925 and 1989. First, we found that a polygenic index (PGI) designed to capture genetic predisposition to education strongly increased the predictiveness of educational attainment in pre-1950s cohorts, particularly among women. When decomposing the total contribution of PGI across different educational transitions, the transition between the basic and academic secondary tracks was the most important. This transition accounted for 60-80% of the total PGI-education association among most cohorts. The transition between academic secondary and higher tertiary levels increased its contribution across cohorts. Second, for cohorts born between 1955 and 1984, we observed that one eighth of the association between parental and one's own education is explained by the PGI. There was also an increase in the intergenerational correlation of education among these cohorts, which was partly explained by an increasing association between family education of origin and the PGI.

Waist-hip ratio is superior to BMI in predicting liver-related outcomes and synergizes with harmful alcohol use

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with liver disease, but the best obesity-related predictor remains undefined. Controversy exists regarding possible synergism between obesity and alcohol use for liver-related outcomes (LRO). We assessed the predictive performance for LROs, and synergism with alcohol use, of abdominal obesity (waist-hip ratio, WHR), and compared it to overall obesity (body mass index, BMI).

METHODS

Forty-thousand nine-hundred twenty-two adults attending the Finnish health-examination surveys, FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 studies, were followed through linkage with electronic healthcare registries for LROs (hospitalizations, cancers, and deaths). Predictive performance of obesity measures (WHR, waist circumference [WC], and BMI) were assessed by Fine-Gray models and time-dependent area-under-the-curve (AUC).

RESULTS

There are 355 LROs during a median follow-up of 12.9 years (509047.8 person-years). WHR and WC emerge as more powerful predictors of LROs than BMI. WHR shows significantly better 10-year AUC values for LROs (0.714, 95% CI 0.685-0.743) than WC (0.648, 95% CI 0.617-0.679) or BMI (0.550, 95% CI 0.514-0.585) both overall and separately among men and women. WHR is predictive also in BMI strata. Absolute 10-year risks of LROs are more dependent on WHR than BMI. Moreover, WHR shows a significant supra-additive interaction effect with harmful alcohol use for liver-related outcomes (excess 10-year cumulative incidence of 2.8% from the interaction), which is not seen between BMI and harmful alcohol use.

CONCLUSIONS

WHR is a better predictor than BMI or WC for LROs, and WHR better reflects the synergism with harmful alcohol use. WHR should be included in clinical assessment when evaluating obesity-related risks for liver outcomes.

Exposure to long-term source-specific transportation noise and incident breast cancer: A pooled study of eight Nordic cohorts

BACKGROUND

Environmental noise is an important environmental exposure that can affect health. An association between transportation noise and breast cancer incidence has been suggested, although current evidence is limited. We investigated the pooled association between long-term exposure to transportation noise and breast cancer incidence.

METHODS

Pooled data from eight Nordic cohorts provided a study population of 111,492 women. Road, railway, and aircraft noise were modelled at residential addresses. Breast cancer incidence (all, estrogen receptor (ER) positive, and ER negative) was derived from cancer registries. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox Proportional Hazards Models, adjusting main models for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables together with long-term exposure to air pollution.

RESULTS

A total of 93,859 women were included in the analyses, of whom 5,875 developed breast cancer. The median (5th-95th percentile) 5-year residential road traffic noise was 54.8 (40.0-67.8) dB Lden, and among those exposed, the median railway noise was 51.0 (41.2-65.8) dB Lden. We observed a pooled HR for breast cancer (95 % confidence interval (CI)) of 1.03 (0.99-1.06) per 10 dB increase in 5-year mean exposure to road traffic noise, and 1.03 (95 % CI: 0.96-1.11) for railway noise, after adjustment for lifestyle and sociodemographic covariates. HRs remained unchanged in analyses with further adjustment for PM2.5 and attenuated when adjusted for NO2 (HRs from 1.02 to 1.01), in analyses using the same sample. For aircraft noise, no association was observed. The associations did not vary by ER status for any noise source. In analyses using <60 dB as a cutoff, we found HRs of 1.08 (0.99-1.18) for road traffic and 1.19 (0.95-1.49) for railway noise.

CONCLUSIONS

We found weak associations between road and railway noise and breast cancer risk. More high-quality prospective studies are needed, particularly among those exposed to railway and aircraft noise before conclusions regarding noise as a risk factor for breast cancer can be made.

Genome-wide identification and phenotypic characterization of seizure-associated copy number variations in 741,075 individuals

Copy number variants (CNV) are established risk factors for neurodevelopmental disorders with seizures or epilepsy. With the hypothesis that seizure disorders share genetic risk factors, we pooled CNV data from 10,590 individuals with seizure disorders, 16,109 individuals with clinically validated epilepsy, and 492,324 population controls and identified 25 genome-wide significant loci, 22 of which are novel for seizure disorders, such as deletions at 1p36.33, 1q44, 2p21-p16.3, 3q29, 8p23.3-p23.2, 9p24.3, 10q26.3, 15q11.2, 15q12-q13.1, 16p12.2, 17q21.31, duplications at 2q13, 9q34.3, 16p13.3, 17q12, 19p13.3, 20q13.33, and reciprocal CNVs at 16p11.2, and 22q11.21. Using genetic data from additional 248,751 individuals with 23 neuropsychiatric phenotypes, we explored the pleiotropy of these 25 loci. Finally, in a subset of individuals with epilepsy and detailed clinical data available, we performed phenome-wide association analyses between individual CNVs and clinical annotations categorized through the Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO). For six CNVs, we identified 19 significant associations with specific HPO terms and generated, for all CNVs, phenotype signatures across 17 clinical categories relevant for epileptologists. This is the most comprehensive investigation of CNVs in epilepsy and related seizure disorders, with potential implications for clinical practice.

Cross-sectionally Calculated Metabolic Aging Does Not Relate to Longitudinal Metabolic Changes-Support for Stratified Aging Models

CONTEXT

Aging varies between individuals, with profound consequences for chronic diseases and longevity. One hypothesis to explain the diversity is a genetically regulated molecular clock that runs differently between individuals. Large human studies with long enough follow-up to test the hypothesis are rare due to practical challenges, but statistical models of aging are built as proxies for the molecular clock by comparing young and old individuals cross-sectionally. These models remain untested against longitudinal data.

OBJECTIVE

We applied novel methodology to test if cross-sectional modeling can distinguish slow vs accelerated aging in a human population.

METHODS

We trained a machine learning model to predict age from 153 clinical and cardiometabolic traits. The model was tested against longitudinal data from another cohort. The training data came from cross-sectional surveys of the Finnish population (n = 9708; ages 25-74 years). The validation data included 3 time points across 10 years in the Young Finns Study (YFS; n = 1009; ages 24-49 years). Predicted metabolic age in 2007 was compared against observed aging rate from the 2001 visit to the 2011 visit in the YFS dataset and correlation between predicted vs observed metabolic aging was determined.

RESULTS

The cross-sectional proxy failed to predict longitudinal observations (R2 = 0.018%, P = 0.67).

CONCLUSION

The finding is unexpected under the clock hypothesis that would produce a positive correlation between predicted and observed aging. Our results are better explained by a stratified model where aging rates per se are similar in adulthood but differences in starting points explain diverging metabolic fates.

National Health Examination Surveys: an essential piece of the health planning puzzle

National health examination surveys (HESs) have been developed to provide important information that cannot be obtained from other sources. A HES combines information obtained by asking participants questions with biophysical measurements taken by trained field staff. They are observational studies with the highest external validity and make specific contributions to both population (public health) and individual health. Few countries have a track record of a regular wide-ranging HES, but these are the basis of many reports and scientific papers. Despite this, little evidence about HES usefulness and impact or the factors that influence HES effectiveness have been disseminated. This paper presents examples of HES contributions to society in both Europe and the Americas. We sought information by emailing a wide list of people involved in running or using national HESs across Europe and the Americas. We asked for examples of where examination data from their HES had been used in national or regional policymaking. We found multiple examples of HES data being used for agenda-setting, including by highlighting nutritional needs and identifying underdiagnosis and poor management of certain conditions. We also found many ways in which HES have been used to monitor the impact of policies and define population norms. HES data have also been used in policy formation and implementation. HES data are influential and powerful. There is need for global support, financing and networking to transfer capacities and innovation in both fieldwork and laboratory technology.

Associations between Liver Enzymes, Lifestyle Risk Factors and Pre-Existing Medical Conditions in a Population-Based Cross-Sectional Sample

While alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) enzymes are commonly used indicators of liver dysfunction recent studies have suggested that these may also serve as predictive biomarkers in the assessment of extrahepatic morbidity. In order to shed further light on the interactions between serum liver enzyme abnormalities, factors of lifestyle and health status we examined ALT and GGT activities in a population-based sample of 8743 adult individuals (4048 men, 4695 women from the National FINRISK 2002 Study, mean age 48.1 ± 13.1 years) with different levels of alcohol drinking, smoking, physical activity, body weight and the presence or absence of various pre-existing medical conditions. The assessments also included laboratory tests for inflammation, lipid status and fatty liver index (FLI), a proxy for fatty liver. The prevalence of ALT and GGT abnormalities were significantly influenced by alcohol use (ALT: p < 0.0005 for men; GGT: p <0.0005 for both genders), smoking (GGT: p <0.0005 for men, p =0.002 for women), adiposity (p < 0.0005 for all comparisons), physical inactivity (GGT: p <0.0005; ALT: p <0.0005 for men, p <0.05 for women) and coffee consumption (p <0.0005 for GGT in both genders; p <0.001 for ALT in men). The total sum of lifestyle risk factor scores (LRFS) influenced the occurrence of liver enzyme abnormalities in a rather linear manner. Significantly higher LRFS were observed in the subgroups of individuals with pre-existing medical conditions when compared with those having no morbidities (p <0.0005). In logistic regression analyses adjusted for the lifestyle factors, both ALT and GGT associated significantly with fatty liver, diabetes and hypertension. GGT levels also associated with coronary heart disease, angina pectoris, cardiac insufficiency, cerebrovascular disease, asthma and depression. Combinations of abnormal ALT and GGT activities significantly increased the odds for hypertension coinciding with abnormalities in biomarkers of inflammation, lipid status and FLI. The data indicates that ALT and GGT activities readily respond to unfavorable factors of lifestyle associating also with a wide array of pre-existing medical conditions. The data supports close links between both hepatic and extrahepatic morbidities and lifestyle risk factors and may open new insights on a more comprehensive use of liver enzymes in predictive algorithms for assessing mechanistically anchored disease conditions.

Different carbohydrate exposures and weight gain-results from a pooled analysis of three population-based studies

BACKGROUND

The role of carbohydrate quantity and quality in weight gain remains unsolved, and research on carbohydrate subcategories is scarce. We examined total carbohydrates, dietary fiber, total sugar, and sucrose intake in relation to the risk of weight gain in Finnish adults.

METHODS

Our data comprised 8327 adults aged 25-70 years in three population-based prospective cohorts. Diet was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire and nutrient intakes were calculated utilizing the Finnish Food Composition Database. Anthropometric measurements were collected according to standard protocols. Two-staged pooling was applied to derive relative risks across cohorts for weight gain of at least 5% by exposure variable intake quintiles in a 7-year follow-up. Linear trends were examined based on a Wald test.

RESULTS

No association was observed between intakes of total carbohydrate, dietary fiber, total sugar or sucrose and the risk of weight gain of at least 5%. Yet, total sugar intake had a borderline protective association with the risk of weight gain in participants with obesity (RR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-1.00 for highest vs. lowest quintile) and sucrose intake in participants with ≥10% decrease in carbohydrate intake during the follow-up (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.61-1.00) after adjustments for sex, age, baseline weight, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy intake. Further adjustment for fruit consumption strengthened the associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support an association between carbohydrate intake and weight gain. However, the results suggested that concurrent changes in carbohydrate intake might be an important determinant of weight change and should be further examined in future studies.

Partial substitution of red or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes

High consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. These kinds of diets are also environmentally unsustainable. We examined a modeled association between a partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods (legumes, vegetables, fruit, cereals, or a combination of these) and T2D risk among Finnish adults. We used pooled data from five Finnish cohorts (n = 41,662, 22% women, aged ≥ 25 years, 10.9 years median follow-up with 1750 incident T2D cases). Diet was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire. In the substitution models, 100 g/week of red meat or 50 g/week of processed meat were substituted with similar amounts of plant-based substitutes. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards multivariable model and pooled using a two-staged random-effects model. We observed small, but statistically significant, reductions in T2D risk in men when red or processed meat were partially substituted with fruits (red meat: HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, P = 0.049, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.005), cereals (red meat: 0.97, 0.95-0.99, P = 0.005, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) or combination of plant-based foods (only processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) but not with legumes or vegetables. The findings of women were similar but not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that even small, easily implemented, shifts towards more sustainable diets may reduce T2D risk particularly in men.

Association between genetic risk of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related morbidity and mortality under different alcohol policy conditions: Evidence from the Finnish alcohol price reduction of 2004

AIMS

Harmful alcohol consumption is influenced by both genetic susceptibility and the price of alcohol. Many previous studies have observed that genetic susceptibility to consumption of alcohol is more predictive in less restrictive drinking conditions. We assess whether such a pattern applies when the prices of alcoholic beverages are decreased.

DESIGN

Data consist of genetically informed population-representative surveys (FINRISK 1992, 1997, 2002 and Health 2000) linked to administrative registers. We analysed the interaction between a polygenic score (PGS) for alcoholic drinks per week consumed and price reduction in predicting the incidence of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in difference-in-difference and interrupted time-series frameworks.

SETTING

Individuals in Finland were followed quarter-yearly from 1 March 2000 to 31 May 2008.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 22 152 individuals (607 132-person quarter-years, 1399 outcome events) aged 30-79 years.

INTERVENTION

A natural experiment stemming from the alcohol tax reduction in March 2004 and import deregulation in May 2004.

MEASUREMENTS

Outcome was quarter-yearly-measured alcohol-related death or hospitalization. The independent variables of main interest were PGS and a price reform indicator. We adjusted for gender, age, age squared, season, 10 first principal components of the genome, data collection round and genotyping batch.

FINDINGS

Both alcohol price reduction and one standard deviation change in PGS were associated with alcohol-related health outcomes; odds ratios (ORs) were 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13, 1.53 and 1.26, 95% CI = 1.12, 1.42 in the 8-year follow-up, respectively. The association between PGS and alcohol-related morbidity was similar before and after the alcohol price reform (PGS × price reform interaction OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.14). These results were robust across different follow-up periods and measurement and analysis strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the decrease of alcohol price in Finland in 2004 substantially increased overall alcohol-related morbidity and mortality, the genetic susceptibility to alcohol consumption did not become more manifest in predicting them.

A short history from Karelia study to biodiversity and public health interventions

Contact with natural environments enriches the human microbiome, promotes immune balance and protects against allergies and inflammatory disorders. In Finland, the allergy &amp; asthma epidemic became slowly visible in mid 1960s. After the World War II, Karelia was split into Finnish and Soviet Union (now Russia) territories. This led to more marked environmental and lifestyle changes in the Finnish compared with Russian Karelia. The Karelia Allergy Study 2002–2022 showed that allergic conditions were much more common on the Finnish side. The Russians had richer gene-microbe network and interaction than the Finns, which associated with better balanced immune regulatory circuits and lower allergy prevalence. In the Finnish adolescents, a biodiverse natural environment around the homes associated with lower occurrence of allergies. Overall, the plausible explanation of the allergy disparity was the prominent change in environment and lifestyle in the Finnish Karelia from 1940s to 1980s. The nationwide Finnish Allergy Programme 2008–2018 implemented the biodiversity hypothesis into practice by endorsing immune tolerance, nature contacts, and allergy health with favorable results. A regional health and environment programme, Nature Step to Health 2022–2032, has been initiated in the City of Lahti, EU Green Capital 2021. The programme integrates prevention of chronic diseases (asthma, diabetes, obesity, depression), nature loss, and climate crisis in the spirit of Planetary Health. Allergic diseases exemplify inappropriate immunological responses to natural environment. Successful management of the epidemics of allergy and other non-communicable diseases may pave the way to improve human and environmental health.

Abdominal obesity and alcohol use modify the impact of genetic risk for incident advanced liver disease in the general population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Genetic variants, abdominal obesity and alcohol use are risk factors for incident liver disease (ILD). We aimed to study whether variants either alone or when aggregated into genetic risk scores (GRSs) associate with ILD, and whether waist-hip ratio (WHR) or alcohol use interacts with this risk.

METHODS

Our study included 33 770 persons (mean age 50 years, 47% men) who participated in health-examination surveys (FINRISK 1992-2012 or Health 2000) with data on alcohol use, WHR and 63 genotypes associated with liver disease. Data were linked with national health registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalizations, malignancies and death). Exclusions were baseline clinical liver disease. Mean follow-up time was 12.2 years. Cox regression analyses between variants and ILD were adjusted for age, sex and BMI.

RESULTS

Variants in PNPLA3, IFNL4, TM6SF2, FDFT1, PPP1R3B, SERPINA1 and HSD17B13 were associated with ILD. GRSs calculated from these variants were not associated with WHR or alcohol use, but were exponentially associated with ILD (up to 25-fold higher risk in high versus low score). The risk of ILD in individuals with high GRS and high WHR or alcohol use compared with those with none of these risk factors was increased by up to 90-fold. GRSs provided new prognostic information particularly in individuals with high WHR.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of multiple genetic variants on the risk of ILD is potentiated by abdominal obesity and alcohol use. Simple GRSs may help to identify individuals with adverse lifestyle who are at a particularly high risk of ILD.

Longitudinal metabolomics of increasing body-mass index and waist-hip ratio reveals two dynamic patterns of obesity pandemic

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

This observational study dissects the complex temporal associations between body-mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR) and circulating metabolomics using a combination of longitudinal and cross-sectional population-based datasets and new systems epidemiology tools.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Firstly, a data-driven subgrouping algorithm was employed to simplify high-dimensional metabolic profiling data into a single categorical variable: a self-organizing map (SOM) was created from 174 metabolic measures from cross-sectional surveys (FINRISK, n = 9708, ages 25-74) and a birth cohort (NFBC1966, n = 3117, age 31 at baseline, age 46 at follow-up) and an expert committee defined four subgroups of individuals based on visual inspection of the SOM. Secondly, the subgroups were compared regarding BMI and WHR trajectories in an independent longitudinal dataset: participants of the Young Finns Study (YFS, n = 1286, ages 24-39 at baseline, 10 years follow-up, three visits) were categorized into the four subgroups and subgroup-specific age-dependent trajectories of BMI, WHR and metabolic measures were modelled by linear regression.

RESULTS

The four subgroups were characterised at age 39 by high BMI, WHR and dyslipidemia (designated TG-rich); low BMI, WHR and favourable lipids (TG-poor); low lipids in general (Low lipid) and high low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (High LDL-C). Trajectory modelling of the YFS dataset revealed a dynamic BMI divergence pattern: despite overlapping starting points at age 24, the subgroups diverged in BMI, fasting insulin (three-fold difference at age 49 between TG-rich and TG-poor) and insulin-associated measures such as triglyceride-cholesterol ratio. Trajectories also revealed a WHR progression pattern: despite different starting points at the age of 24 in WHR, LDL-C and cholesterol-associated measures, all subgroups exhibited similar rates of change in these measures, i.e. WHR progression was uniform regardless of the cross-sectional metabolic profile.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-associated weight variation in adults between 24 and 49 manifests as temporal divergence in BMI and uniform progression of WHR across metabolic health strata.

Inflammatory proteomics profiling for prediction of incident atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has emerged as a common condition in older adults. Cardiovascular risk factors only explain about 50% of AF cases. Inflammatory biomarkers may help close this gap as inflammation can alter atrial electrophysiology and structure. This study aimed to determine a cytokine biomarker profile for this condition in the community using a proteomics approach.

METHODS

This study uses cytokine proteomics in participants of the Finnish population-based FINRISK cohort studies 1997/2002. Risk models for 46 cytokines were developed to predict incident AF using Cox regressions. Furthermore, the association of participants' C reactive protein (CRP) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations with incident AF was examined.

RESULTS

In 10 744 participants (mean age of 50.9 years, 51.3% women), 1246 cases of incident AF were observed (40.5% women). The main analyses, adjusted for participants' sex and age, suggested that higher concentrations of macrophage inflammatory protein-1β (HR=1.11; 95% CI 1.04, 1.17), hepatocyte growth factor (HR=1.12; 95% CI 1.05, 1.19), CRP (HR=1.17; 95% CI 1.10, 1.24) and NT-proBNP (HR=1.58; 95% CI 1.45, 1.71) were associated with increased risk of incident AF. In further clinical variable-adjusted models, only NT-proBNP remained statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirmed NT-proBNP as a strong predictor for AF. Observed associations of circulating inflammatory cytokines were primarily explained by clinical risk factors and did not improve risk prediction. The potential mechanistic role of inflammatory cytokines measured in a proteomics approach remains to be further elucidated.

Major risk factors for Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies equisimilis is a human pathogen causing severe invasive infections. Detailed information on S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia and especially of predisposing factors are lacking. The purpose of the study is to investigate the risk factors of S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia compared to the general population in Finland.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed all patients older than 18 years with S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia in the Pirkanmaa health district from August 2015 to July 2018. The risk factors for S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia were investigated with respect to the normal population in Finland using the Finhealth study data provided by the Finnish institute for health and welfare. The study group was matched with the Finhealth study by age and sex.

RESULTS

Altogether 230 cases of S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia were detected. The medical records of 217 episodes of S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia (involving 211 patients) were available for analysis. Obesity was a statistically significant risk factor for S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia (Odds Ratio 2.96 [95% CI 2.22-3.96]). Diabetes and coronary artery disease were also associated with an increased risk of S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia (OR 4.82 [95% CI 3.62-6.42]) and (OR 3.03 [95% CI 2.18-4.19]).

CONCLUSIONS

We found obesity, diabetes, and coronary artery disease to be associated with an increased risk for S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia. These results provide an increased understanding of risk factors for S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis bacteremia.

The gut microbiome is a significant risk factor for future chronic lung disease

BACKGROUND

The gut-lung axis is generally recognized, but there are few large studies of the gut microbiome and incident respiratory disease in adults.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to investigate the association and predictive capacity of the gut microbiome for incident asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

Shallow metagenomic sequencing was performed for stool samples from a prospective, population-based cohort (FINRISK02; N = 7115 adults) with linked national administrative health register-derived classifications for incident asthma and COPD up to 15 years after baseline. Generalized linear models and Cox regressions were used to assess associations of microbial taxa and diversity with disease occurrence. Predictive models were constructed using machine learning with extreme gradient boosting. Models considered taxa abundances individually and in combination with other risk factors, including sex, age, body mass index, and smoking status.

RESULTS

A total of 695 and 392 statistically significant associations were found between baseline taxonomic groups and incident asthma and COPD, respectively. Gradient boosting decision trees of baseline gut microbiome abundance predicted incident asthma and COPD in the validation data sets with mean area under the curves of 0.608 and 0.780, respectively. Cox analysis showed that the baseline gut microbiome achieved higher predictive performance than individual conventional risk factors, with C-indices of 0.623 for asthma and 0.817 for COPD. The integration of the gut microbiome and conventional risk factors further improved prediction capacities.

CONCLUSIONS

The gut microbiome is a significant risk factor for incident asthma and incident COPD and is largely independent of conventional risk factors.

Association Between Psychological Distress and Incident Dementia in a Population-Based Cohort in Finland

IMPORTANCE

Symptoms of psychological distress have shown association with subsequent dementia, but the nature of association remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of psychological distress with etiological risk of dementia and incidence of dementia in presence of competing risk of death.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study consisted of population-based cross-sectional National FINRISK Study surveys collected in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 in Finland with register-based follow-up; and the cohort was linked to Finnish Health Register data for dementia and mortality for each participant until December 31, 2017. Participants included individuals without dementia who had complete exposure data. Data were analyzed from May 2019 to April 2022.

EXPOSURES

Self-reported symptoms of psychological distress: stress (more than other people), depressive mood, exhaustion, and nervousness (often, sometimes, never).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident all-cause dementia, ascertained through linkage to national health registers. Poisson cause-specific hazard model (emphasizing etiological risk) and Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model (emphasizing effect on incidence) considering dementia and death without dementia as competing risks. Covariates of age, sex, baseline year, follow-up time, educational level, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, and physical activity. Sensitivity analysis was performed to reduce reverse causation bias by excluding individuals with follow-up less than 10 years.

RESULTS

Among 67 688 participants (34 968 [51.7%] women; age range, 25 to 74 years; mean [SD] age, 45.4 years), 7935 received a diagnosis of dementia over a mean follow-up of 25.4 years (range, 10 to 45 years). Psychological distress was significantly associated with all-cause dementia in a multivariable Poisson model, with incidence rate ratios from 1.17 (95% CI, 1.08-1.26) for exhaustion to 1.24 (95% CI, 1.11-1.38) for stress, and remained significant in sensitivity analyses. A Fine-Gray model showed significant associations (with hazard ratios from 1.08 [95% CI, 1.01-1.17] for exhaustion to 1.12 [95% CI, 1.00-1.25] for stress) for symptoms other than depressive mood (hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.98-1.20]). All the symptoms showed significant associations with competing risk of death in both models.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, psychological distress symptoms were significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause dementia in the model emphasizing etiological risk. Associations with real incidence of dementia were diminished by the competing risk of death.

Use of antibiotics and risk of type 2 diabetes, overweight and obesity: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study and the national FINRISK study

PURPOSE

To investigate whether exposure to systemic antibiotics influences the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and overweight/obesity.

METHODS

The study sample comprised 2209 (110 with incident diabetes) participants from the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (YFS) aged 24-39 years in 2001. The exposure was national linked register data on purchased antibiotic courses between 1993 and 2001. Clinical examinations including BMI were conducted in 2001, 2007 and 2011. Participants with prevalent diabetes in 2001 were excluded. Data on type 2 diabetes was also obtained from two national registers until 2017. Data from four population-based National FINRISK studies were used for replication (N = 24,674, 1866 with incident diabetes).

RESULTS

Prior antibiotic exposure (> 5 versus 0-1 antibiotic courses) was associated with subsequent type 2 diabetes in both YFS (OR 2.29; 95%CI 1.33-3.96) and FINRISK (HR 1.73; 95%CI 1.51-1.99). An increased risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in YFS (OR 1.043; 95%CI 1.013-1.074) and FINRISK (HR 1.022; 95%CI 1.016-1.029) per course. Exposure to antibiotics increased the risk of overweight/obesity (BMI > 25 kg/m²) after a 10-year follow-up in YFS (OR 1.043; 95%CI 1.019-1.068) and in FINRISK (OR 1.023; 95%CI 1.018-1.029) at baseline per antibiotic course. Adjustments for confounders from early life in YFS and at baseline in FINRISK, including BMI, socioeconomic status, smoking, insulin, blood pressure, and physical activity, did not appreciably alter the findings.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that exposure to antibiotics was associated with increased risk for future type 2 diabetes and overweight/obesity and support judicious antibiotic prescribing.

Impact of Physical Activity on the Characteristics and Metabolic Consequences of Alcohol Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Population-Based Study

Sedentary lifestyle and excessive alcohol drinking are major modifiable risk factors of health. In order to shed further light on the relationships between physical activity and health consequences of alcohol intake, we measured biomarkers of liver function, inflammation, lipid status and fatty liver index tests in a large population-based sample of individuals with different levels of physical activity, alcohol drinking and other lifestyle risk factors. The study included 21,050 adult participants (9940 men, 11,110 women) (mean age 48.2 ± 13.3 years) of the National FINRISK Study. Data on physical activity, alcohol drinking, smoking and body weight were recorded. The participants were classified to subgroups according to gender, levels of physical activity (sedentary, low, moderate, vigorous, extreme), alcohol drinking levels (abstainers, moderate drinkers, heavy drinkers) and patterns (regular or binge, types of beverages preferred in consumption). Serum liver enzymes (GGT, ALT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and lipid profiles were measured using standard laboratory techniques. Physical activity was linearly and inversely related with the amount of alcohol consumption, with the lowest alcohol drinking levels being observed in those with vigorous or extreme activity (p < 0.0005). Physically active individuals were less frequently binge-type drinkers, cigarette smokers or heavy coffee drinkers than those with sedentary activity (p < 0.0005 for linear trend in all comparisons). In the General Linear Model to assess the main and interaction effects of physical activity and alcohol consumption on biomarker status, as adjusted for anthropometric measures, smoking and coffee consumption, increasing levels of physical activity were found to be associated with more favorable findings on serum GGT (p < 0.0005), ALT (p < 0.0005 for men), cholesterol (p = 0.025 for men; p < 0.0005 for women), HDL-cholesterol (p < 0.0005 for men, p = 0.001 for women), LDL-cholesterol (p < 0.03 for men), triglycerides (p < 0.0005 for men, p < 0.03 for women), CRP (p < 0.0005 for men, p = 0.006 for women) and fatty liver index (p < 0.0005). The data support the view that regular moderate to vigorous physical activity may counteract adverse metabolic consequences of alcohol consumption on liver function, inflammation and lipid status. The role of physical activity should be further emphasized in interventions aimed at reducing health problems related to unfavorable risk factors of lifestyle.

Gene-gene interaction detection with deep learning

The extent to which genetic interactions affect observed phenotypes is generally unknown because current interaction detection approaches only consider simple interactions between top SNPs of genes. We introduce an open-source framework for increasing the power of interaction detection by considering all SNPs within a selected set of genes and complex interactions between them, beyond only the currently considered multiplicative relationships. In brief, the relation between SNPs and a phenotype is captured by a neural network, and the interactions are quantified by Shapley scores between hidden nodes, which are gene representations that optimally combine information from the corresponding SNPs. Additionally, we design a permutation procedure tailored for neural networks to assess the significance of interactions, which outperformed existing alternatives on simulated datasets with complex interactions, and in a cholesterol study on the UK Biobank it detected nine interactions which replicated on an independent FINRISK dataset.

Comparison of various strategies to define the optimal target population for liver fibrosis screening: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver fibrosis screening is recommended in high-risk populations, but the optimal definition of "high risk" remains to be established. We compared the performance of several risk-stratification strategies in a population-based setting.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys Health 2000 and FINRISK 2002-2012. The Chronic Liver Disease Risk Score (CLivD) was compared to previously published risk-stratification strategies based on elevated liver enzymes, alcohol use, diabetes, fatty liver index, body mass index, and/or metabolic risk factors for their ability to detect either advanced liver fibrosis or incident severe liver events. Advanced fibrosis was defined as an Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF^TM ) score >9.8 in the Health 2000 study (n = 6084), and incident liver events were ascertained from registry linkage in the combined FINRISK 2002-2012 and Health 2000 cohort (n = 26,957).

RESULTS

Depending on the cohort, 53%-60% of the population was considered at risk using the CLivD strategy (low-intermediate-high risk, excluding the minimal-risk category), compared to 30%-32% according to the other risk-stratification strategies. The CLivD captured 85%-91% of cases in the population with advanced liver fibrosis and 90% of incident severe liver events within 10 years from baseline. This compares to 33%-44% and 56%-67% captured by the other risk-stratification strategies, respectively. The 10-year cumulative incidence of liver events varied by risk-stratification strategy (1.0%-1.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to previously reported traditional risk factor-based strategies, use of the CLivD captured substantially more cases with advanced liver disease in the population and may be superior for targeting further fibrosis screening.