Rapid Review of Social Contact Patterns During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Differences in the Temporal Extension of Self-Continuity Over the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study examined whether the average levels and the temporal extension of self-continuity varied over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Three demographically matched adult life-span samples (n = 223 each) were gathered in the U.S. in fall 2016, summer 2020, and winter 2022/23. Participants rated their self-continuity 1/5/10 years into the past and future. Multi-level analyses examined the effects of temporal distance, past/future direction, and assessment time while controlling for demographics. Average self-continuity did not vary across assessments, but the tendency to report lower self-continuity for more distant times was weaker during the pandemic, and the tendency to report lower self-continuity for past versus future was weaker during and after the pandemic. Discussion focuses on the role of slowed time perception during the pandemic and the possibility that mid- and post-pandemic reports of past self-continuity were elevated by nostalgic self-reflection, coupled with increased uncertainty about the future.

Social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic: a snapshot of post-pandemic behaviour from the CoMix study

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented changes in behaviour. To estimate if these persisted, a final round of the CoMix social contact survey was conducted in four countries at a time when all societal restrictions had been lifted for several months. We conducted a survey on a nationally representative sample in the UK, Netherlands (NL), Belgium (BE), and Switzerland (CH). Participants were asked about their contacts and behaviours on the previous day. We calculated contact matrices and compared the contact levels to a pre-pandemic baseline to estimate R0. Data collection occurred from 17 November to 7 December 2022. 7477 participants were recruited. Some were asked to undertake the survey on behalf of their children. Only 14.4 % of all participants reported wearing a facemask on the previous day. Self-reported vaccination rates in adults were similar for each country at around 86 %. Trimmed mean recorded contacts were highest in NL with 9.9 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 9.0-10.8) contacts per person per day and lowest in CH at 6.0 (95 % CI 5.4-6.6). Contacts at work were lowest in the UK (1.4 contacts per person per day) and highest in NL at 2.8 contacts per person per day. Other contacts were also lower in the UK at 1.6 per person per day (95 % CI 1.4-1.9) and highest in NL at 3.4 recorded per person per day (95 % CI 43.0-4.0). The next-generation approach suggests that R0 for a close-contact disease would be roughly half pre-pandemic levels in the UK, 80 % in NL and intermediate in the other two countries. The pandemic appears to have resulted in lasting changes in contact patterns expected to have an impact on the epidemiology of many different pathogens. Further post-pandemic surveys are necessary to confirm this finding.

Temporal and Racial/Ethnic Patterns of Social Engagement among Older Adults: Evidence from American Time Use Survey 2019 to 2022

This study examines temporal and racial/ethnic patterns in social engagement among older adults from 2019 to 2022, using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) for adults aged 60 and older (n = 13,605). Social engagement was operationalized as time spent on five activities in in-home and out-of-home settings. Descriptive analysis was used to characterize temporal trends of social engagement, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression was utilized to estimate year-specific racial/ethnic differences. Results indicate an initial decline in out-of-home social engagement, followed by a gradual recovery. Racial differences in social engagement became salient during the pandemic period. The evolving racial and ethnic patterns in social engagement underscore the challenges that Black and Hispanic older adults faced during the public health crisis. Understanding activity patterns specific to racial/ethnic groups has implications for targeted interventions, informing strategies to support Black, Hispanic, and other minoritized older adults in public health emergencies.

Comprehensive profiling of social mixing patterns in resource poor countries: A mixed methods research protocol

BACKGROUND

Low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases. Social interaction data inform infectious disease models and disease prevention strategies. The variations in demographics and contact patterns across ages, cultures, and locations significantly impact infectious disease dynamics and pathogen transmission. LMICs lack sufficient social interaction data for infectious disease modeling.

METHODS

To address this gap, we will collect qualitative and quantitative data from eight study sites (encompassing both rural and urban settings) across Guatemala, India, Pakistan, and Mozambique. We will conduct focus group discussions and cognitive interviews to assess the feasibility and acceptability of our data collection tools at each site. Thematic and rapid analyses will help to identify key themes and categories through coding, guiding the design of quantitative data collection tools (enrollment survey, contact diaries, exit survey, and wearable proximity sensors) and the implementation of study procedures. We will create three age-specific contact matrices (physical, nonphysical, and both) at each study site using data from standardized contact diaries to characterize the patterns of social mixing. Regression analysis will be conducted to identify key drivers of contacts. We will comprehensively profile the frequency, duration, and intensity of infants' interactions with household members using high resolution data from the proximity sensors and calculating infants' proximity score (fraction of time spent by each household member in proximity with the infant, over the total infant contact time) for each household member.

DISCUSSION

Our qualitative data yielded insights into the perceptions and acceptability of contact diaries and wearable proximity sensors for collecting social mixing data in LMICs. The quantitative data will allow a more accurate representation of human interactions that lead to the transmission of pathogens through close contact in LMICs. Our findings will provide more appropriate social mixing data for parameterizing mathematical models of LMIC populations. Our study tools could be adapted for other studies.

Dynamic contact networks of residents of an urban jail in the era of SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

In custodial settings such as jails and prisons, infectious disease transmission is heightened by factors such as overcrowding and limited healthcare access. Specific features of social contact networks within these settings have not been sufficiently characterized, especially in the context of a large-scale respiratory infectious disease outbreak. The study aims to quantify contact network dynamics within the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, Georgia.

METHODS

Jail roster data were utilized to construct social contact networks. Rosters included resident details, cell locations, and demographic information. This analysis involved 6702 male residents over 140,901 person days. Network statistics, including degree, mixing, and dissolution (movement within and out of the jail) rates, were assessed. We compared outcomes for two distinct periods (January 2022 and April 2022) to understand potential responses in network structures during and after the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant peak.

RESULTS

We found high cross-sectional network degree at both cell and block levels. While mean degree increased with age, older residents exhibited lower degree during the Omicron peak. Block-level networks demonstrated higher mean degrees than cell-level networks. Cumulative degree distributions increased from January to April, indicating heightened contacts after the outbreak. Assortative age mixing was strong, especially for younger residents. Dynamic network statistics illustrated increased degrees over time, emphasizing the potential for disease spread.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite some reduction in network characteristics during the Omicron peak, the contact networks within the Fulton County Jail presented ideal conditions for infectious disease transmission. Age-specific mixing patterns suggested unintentional age segregation, potentially limiting disease spread to older residents. This study underscores the necessity for ongoing monitoring of contact networks in carceral settings and provides valuable insights for epidemic modeling and intervention strategies, including quarantine, depopulation, and vaccination, laying a foundation for understanding disease dynamics in such environments.Top of Form.

Social contacts patterns relevant to the transmission of infectious diseases in Suzhou, China following the COVID-19 epidemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected human social contact patterns, but there is limited understanding regarding the post-pandemic social contact patterns. Our objective is to quantitatively assess social contact patterns in Suzhou post-COVID-19.

METHODS

We employed a diary design and conducted social contact surveys from June to October 2023, utilizing paper questionnaires. A generalized linear model was utilized to analyze the relationship between individual contacts and covariates. We examined the proportions of contact type, location, duration, and frequency. Additionally, age-related mixed matrices were established.

RESULTS

The participants reported an average of 11.51 (SD 5.96) contact numbers and a total of 19.78 (SD 20.94) contact numbers per day, respectively. The number of contacts was significantly associated with age, household size, and the type of week. Compared to the 0-9 age group, those in the 10-19 age group reported a higher number of contacts (IRR = 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.24), while participants aged 20 and older reported fewer (IRR range: 0.54-0.67). Larger households (5 or more) reported more contacts (IRR = 1.09, CI: 1.01-1.18) and fewer contacts were reported on weekends (IRR = 0.95, CI: 0.90-0.99). School had the highest proportion of contact durations exceeding 4 h (49.5%) and daily frequencies (90.4%), followed by home and workplace. The contact patterns exhibited clear age-assortative mixing, with Q indices of 0.27 and 0.28.

CONCLUSIONS

We assessed the characteristics of social contact patterns in Suzhou, which are essential for parameterizing models of infectious disease transmission. The high frequency and intensity of contacts among school-aged children should be given special attention, making school intervention policies a crucial component in controlling infectious disease transmission.

Social Contact, Social Participation, and Emotional Well-Being Among Older Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Roles of Giving and Receiving Social Support

This study examined whether social contact, social participation, and social support during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with depression and anxiety. Data were taken from the 2020 COVID-19 Supplement of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (N = 2,778). Depression and anxiety were regressed on social contact frequency, social participation, and social support. Path analyses were also performed. The results showed that in-person contact was related to lower levels of depression, while in-person contact and attending religious services were related to lower levels of anxiety. Giving and receiving support were associated with higher levels of depression and anxiety. Giving support mediated the link between virtual contact, volunteering, and depression, while receiving support mediated the link between virtual contact and depression. Receiving and giving support mediated the association between virtual social contact, volunteering, and anxiety. During the pandemic, being socially connected provided some benefits in terms of emotional well-being, but in some cases being socially connected did not provide salubrious effects.

Transmission matrices used in epidemiologic modelling

Mixing matrices are included in infectious disease models to reflect transmission opportunities between population strata. These matrices were originally constructed on the basis of theoretical considerations and most of the early work in this area originates from research on sexually transferred diseases in the 80s, in response to AIDS. Later work in the 90s populated these matrices on the basis of survey data gathered to capture transmission risks for respiratory diseases. We provide an overview of developments in the construction of matrices for capturing transmission opportunities in populations. Such transmission matrices are useful for epidemiologic modelling to capture within and between stratum transmission and can be informed from theoretical mixing assumptions, informed by empirical evidence gathered through investigation as well as generated on the basis of data. Links to summary measures and threshold conditions are also provided.

Comprehensive profiling of social mixing patterns in resource poor countries: a mixed methods research protocol

Background

Low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases. Social interaction data inform infectious disease models and disease prevention strategies. The variations in demographics and contact patterns across ages, cultures, and locations significantly impact infectious disease dynamics and pathogen transmission. LMICs lack sufficient social interaction data for infectious disease modeling.

Methods

To address this gap, we will collect qualitative and quantitative data from eight study sites (encompassing both rural and urban settings) across Guatemala, India, Pakistan, and Mozambique. We will conduct focus group discussions and cognitive interviews to assess the feasibility and acceptability of our data collection tools at each site. Thematic and rapid analyses will help to identify key themes and categories through coding, guiding the design of quantitative data collection tools (enrollment survey, contact diaries, exit survey, and wearable proximity sensors) and the implementation of study procedures.We will create three age-specific contact matrices (physical, nonphysical, and both) at each study site using data from standardized contact diaries to characterize the patterns of social mixing. Regression analysis will be conducted to identify key drivers of contacts. We will comprehensively profile the frequency, duration, and intensity of infants' interactions with household members using high resolution data from the proximity sensors and calculating infants' proximity score (fraction of time spent by each household member in proximity with the infant, over the total infant contact time) for each household member.

Discussion

Our qualitative data yielded insights into the perceptions and acceptability of contact diaries and wearable proximity sensors for collecting social mixing data in LMICs. The quantitative data will allow a more accurate representation of human interactions that lead to the transmission of pathogens through close contact in LMICs. Our findings will provide more appropriate social mixing data for parameterizing mathematical models of LMIC populations. Our study tools could be adapted for other studies.

Changing social contact patterns among US workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: April 2020 to December 2021

Non-pharmaceutical interventions minimize social contacts, hence the spread of respiratory pathogens such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Globally, there is a paucity of social contact data from the workforce. In this study, we quantified two-day contact patterns among USA employees. Contacts were defined as face-to-face conversations, involving physical touch or proximity to another individual and were collected using electronic self-kept diaries. Data were collected over 4 rounds from 2020 to 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mean (standard deviation) contacts reported by 1456 participants were 2.5 (2.5), 8.2 (7.1), 9.2 (7.1) and 10.1 (9.5) across round 1 (April-June 2020), 2 (November 2020-January 2021), 3 (June-August 2021), and 4 (November-December 2021), respectively. Between round 1 and 2, we report a 3-fold increase in the mean number of contacts reported per participant with no major increases from round 2-4. We then modeled SARS-CoV-2 transmission at home, work, and community settings. The model revealed reduced relative transmission in all settings in round 1. Subsequently, transmission increased at home and in the community but remained exceptionally low in work settings. To accurately parameterize models of infection transmission and control, we need empirical social contact data that capture human mixing behavior across time.

Estimates of Major Depressive Disorder and Treatment Among Adolescents by Race and Ethnicity

Importance

The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to poorer mental health and a greater need for treatment. Nationally representative estimates of major depressive disorder (MDD) and mental health treatment among US adolescents during the pandemic are needed.

Objective

To estimate MDD prevalence among adolescents, evaluate mental health treatment use among adolescents with MDD, and assess differences by race and ethnicity.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional analysis of the nationally representative 2021 National Survey on Drug Use and Health included noninstitutionalized US adolescents between the ages of 12 and 17 years (n = 10 743). Analytic weights were applied to all rates and model estimates to be nationally representative and account for sample design and survey nonresponse. Data were collected from January 14 to December 20, 2021, and analyzed from February 11 to April 3, 2023.

Exposures

Self-reported race and ethnicity.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Dichotomous outcomes of MDD as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition), MDD-specific mental health treatment, any type of mental health treatment, telehealth visits, and delays in mental health treatment.

Results

The sample included 10 743 adolescents (51.1% male). Self-reported race and ethnicity included 5.1% Asian, 14.1% Black, 23.3% Latinx, 51.2% White, and 6.3% more than 1 race. Ages were evenly distributed: 34.0% aged 12 to 13 years; 33.3% aged 14 to 15 years; and 32.7% aged 16 to 17 years. Adolescents of more than 1 race or ethnicity had the highest MDD rate (26.5%). Compared with White adolescents, the lowest rates of any MDD treatment overall were found among Latinx adolescents (29.2% [95% CI, 22.2%-36.2%]) and those of more than 1 race or ethnicity (21.1% [95% CI, 11.6%-30.7%]). Similar results were found for treatment by any clinician (Latinx, 25.6% [95% CI, 18.8%-32.4%]; >1 race or ethnicity, 19.1% [95% CI, 9.7%-28.6%]), treatment by a mental health specialist (Latinx, 22.9% [95% CI, 16.9%-28.9%]; >1 race or ethnicity, 16.7% [95% CI, 7.1%-26.3%]), treatment by a nonspecialist clinician (Latinx, 7.3% [95% CI, 3.3%-11.3%]; >1 race or ethnicity, 4.8% [95% CI, 1.9%-7.7%]), and use of any psychotropic medication prescription (Latinx, 11.6% [95% CI, 7.3%-15.9%]; >1 race or ethnicity, 8.3% [95% CI, 2.8%-13.7]). Compared with White adolescents, Black adolescents had lower rates of MDD treatment by any clinician (31.7% [95% CI, 23.7%-39.8%]) and by nonspecialist clinicians (8.4% [95% CI, 3.8%-13.2%]) and experienced lower prescription rates for any psychotropic medication (12.6 [95% CI, 4.6%-20.6%]). Asian (16.0% [95% CI, 5.0%-27.2%]) and Latinx (17.8% [95% CI, 12.6%-23.0%]) adolescents had lower rates of virtual mental health treatment compared with White adolescents. Black (19.1% [95% CI, 14.1%-24.2%]) and Latinx (17.9% [95% CI, 15.0%-21.1%]) adolescents had lower rates of appointments transition to telehealth, while Black adolescents (14.1% [95% CI, 10.7%-17.4%]) experienced delays getting their prescriptions.

Conclusions and Relevance

During the first full calendar year of the pandemic, approximately 1 in 5 adolescents had MDD, and less than half of adolescents who needed treatment had any mental health treatment. Adolescents in racial and ethnic minority groups, particularly Latinx, experienced the lowest treatment rates. Federal policy should target adolescents as a whole, and minority populations in particular, to ensure equitable treatment access. Efforts should consider the social, racial, ethnic, and cultural determinants of health.

Social contact patterns among employees in U.S. long-term care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, December 2020 to June 2021

OBJECTIVE

We measured contact patterns using social contact diaries for 157 U.S. long-term care facility employees from December 2020 - June 2021. These data are crucial for analyzing mathematical transmission models and for informing healthcare setting infection control policy.

RESULTS

The median number of daily contacts was 10 (IQR 8-11). Household contacts were more likely partially masked than fully masked, more likely to involve physical contact, and longer in duration compared to facility contacts.

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks

To complement labour-intensive conventional contact tracing, digital proximity tracing was implemented widely during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the privacy-centred design of the dominant Google-Apple exposure notification framework has hindered assessment of its effectiveness. Between October 2021 and January 2022, we systematically collected app use and notification receipt data within a test and trace programme targeting around 50,000 university students in Leuven, Belgium. Due to low success rates in each studied step of the digital notification cascade, only 4.3% of exposed contacts (CI: 2.8-6.1%) received such notifications, resulting in 10 times more cases detected through conventional contact tracing. Moreover, the infection risk of digitally traced contacts (5.0%; CI: 3.0-7.7%) was lower than that of conventionally traced non-app users (9.8%; CI: 8.8-10.7%; p = 0.002). Contrary to common perception as near instantaneous, there was a 1.2-day delay (CI: 0.6-2.2) between case PCR result and digital contact notification. These results highlight major limitations of a digital proximity tracing system based on the dominant framework.

Dynamic Contact Networks of Residents of an Urban Jail in the Era of SARS-CoV-2

Background

In custodial settings such as jails and prisons, infectious disease transmission is heightened by factors such as overcrowding and limited healthcare access. Specific features of social contact networks within these settings have not been sufficiently characterized, especially in the context of a large-scale respiratory infectious disease outbreak. The study aims to quantify contact network dynamics within the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, Georgia, to improve our understanding respiratory disease spread to informs public health interventions.

Methods

As part of the Surveillance by Wastewater and Nasal Self-collection of Specimens (SWANSS) study, jail roster data were utilized to construct social contact networks. Rosters included resident details, cell locations, and demographic information. This analysis involved 6,702 residents over 140,901 person days. Network statistics, including degree, mixing, and turnover rates, were assessed across age groups, race/ethnicities, and jail floors. We compared outcomes for two distinct periods (January 2022 and April 2022) to understand potential responses in network structures during and after the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant peak.

Results

We found high cross-sectional network degree at both cell and block levels, indicative of substantial daily contacts. While mean degree increased with age, older residents exhibited lower degree during the Omicron peak, suggesting potential quarantine measures. Block-level networks demonstrated higher mean degrees than cell-level networks. Cumulative degree distributions for both levels increased from January to April, indicating heightened contacts after the outbreak. Assortative age mixing was strong, especially for residents aged 20-29. Dynamic network statistics illustrated increased degrees over time, emphasizing the potential for disease spread, albeit with a lower growth rate during the Omicron peak.

Conclusions

The contact networks within the Fulton County Jail presented ideal conditions for infectious disease transmission. Despite some reduction in network characteristics during the Omicron peak, the potential for disease spread remained high. Age-specific mixing patterns suggested unintentional age segregation, potentially limiting disease spread to older residents. The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring of contact networks in carceral settings and provides valuable insights for epidemic modeling and intervention strategies, including quarantine, depopulation, and vaccination. This network analysis offers a foundation for understanding disease dynamics in carceral environments.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Incidence and Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Importance

Little is known about how COVID-19 affects the incidence or outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), and it is possible that more generalized factors beyond SARS-CoV-2 infection are primarily responsible for changes in OHCA incidence and outcome.

Objective

To assess whether COVID-19 is associated with OHCA incidence and outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study was conducted in Seattle and King County, Washington. Participants included persons aged 18 years or older with nontraumatic OHCA attended by emergency medical services (EMS) between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2021. Data analysis was performed from November 2022 to March 2023.

Exposures

Prepandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic (2020-2021) periods and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were OHCA incidence and patient outcomes (ie, survival to hospital discharge). Mediation analysis was used to determine the percentage change in OHCA incidence and outcomes between prepandemic and pandemic periods that was attributable to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection vs conventional Utstein elements related to OHCA circumstances (ie, witness status and OHCA location) and resuscitation care (ie, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, early defibrillation, and EMS response intervals).

Results

There were a total of 13 081 patients with OHCA (7102 dead upon EMS arrival and 5979 EMS treated). Among EMS-treated patients, the median (IQR) age was 64.0 (51.0-75.0) years, 3864 (64.6%) were male, and 1027 (17.2%) survived to hospital discharge. The total number of patients with OHCA increased by 19.0% (from 5963 in the prepandemic period to 7118 in the pandemic period), corresponding to an incidence increase from 168.8 to 195.3 events per 100 000 person-years. Of EMS-treated patients with OHCA during the pandemic period, 194 (6.2%) were acutely infected with SARS-CoV-2 compared with 7 of 191 EMS-attended but untreated patients with OHCA (3.7%). In time-series correlation analysis, there was a positive correlation between community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and overall OHCA incidence (r = 0.27; P = .01), as well as OHCA incidence with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (r = 0.43; P < .001). The survival rate during the pandemic period was lower than that in the prepandemic period (483 patients [15.4%] vs 544 patients [19.2%]). During the pandemic, those with OHCA and acute SARS-CoV-2 infection had lower likelihood of survival compared with those without acute infection (12 patients [6.2%] vs 471 patients [16.0%]). SARS-CoV-2 infection itself accounted for 18.5% of the pandemic survival decline, whereas Utstein elements mediated 68.2% of the survival decline.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of COVID-19 and OHCA, a substantial proportion of the higher OHCA incidence and lower survival during the pandemic was not directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection but indirect factors that challenged OHCA prevention and treatment.

Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals

BACKGROUND

The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector-infectee pair. It indicates how quickly new generations of cases appear, thus informing on the speed of an epidemic. Estimating the serial interval requires to identify pairs of infectors and infectees. Yet, most studies fail to assess the direction of transmission between cases and assume that the order of infections - and thus transmissions - strictly follows the order of symptom onsets, thereby imposing serial intervals to be positive. Because of the long and highly variable incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, this may not always be true (i.e an infectee may show symptoms before their infector) and negative serial intervals may occur. This study aims to estimate the serial interval of different SARS-CoV-2 variants whilst accounting for negative serial intervals.

METHODS

This analysis included 5 842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst 2 579 households from September 2020 to August 2022 across England & Wales. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, based on a wide range of incubation period and generation time distributions compatible with estimates reported in the literature. Serial intervals were derived from the reconstructed transmission pairs, stratified by variants.

RESULTS

We estimated that 22% (95% credible interval (CrI) 8-32%) of serial interval values are negative across all VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for Omicron BA5 (2.02 days, 1.26-2.84) and longest for Alpha (3.37 days, 2.52-4.04).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the large proportion of negative serial intervals across SARS-CoV-2 variants. Because the serial interval is widely used to estimate transmissibility and forecast cases, these results may have critical implications for epidemic control.

Social Mixing and Network Characteristics of COVID-19 Patients Before and After Widespread Interventions: A Population-based Study

SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spreads among humans via social networks, with social mixing and network characteristics potentially facilitating transmission. However, limited data on topological structural features has hindered in-depth studies. Existing research is based on snapshot analyses, preventing temporal investigations of network changes. Comparing network characteristics over time offers additional insights into transmission dynamics. We examined confirmed COVID-19 patients from an eastern Chinese province, analyzing social mixing and network characteristics using transmission network topology before and after widespread interventions. Between the two time periods, the percentage of singleton networks increased from 38.9 to 62.8 ; the average shortest path length decreased from 1.53 to 1.14 ; the average betweenness reduced from 0.65 to 0.11 ; the average cluster size dropped from 4.05 to 2.72 ; and the out-degree had a slight but nonsignificant decline from 0.75 to 0.63 Results show that nonpharmaceutical interventions effectively disrupted transmission networks, preventing further disease spread. Additionally, we found that the networks’ dynamic structure provided more information than solely examining infection curves after applying descriptive and agent-based modeling approaches. In summary, we investigated social mixing and network characteristics of COVID-19 patients during different pandemic stages, revealing transmission network heterogeneities.

Testing Whether Higher Contact Among the Vaccinated Can Be a Mechanism for Observed Negative Vaccine Effectiveness

Evidence from early observational studies suggested negative vaccine effectiveness (${V}_{Eff}$) for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant. Since true ${V}_{Eff}$ is unlikely to be negative, we explored how differences in contact among vaccinated persons (e.g., potentially from the implementation of vaccine mandates) could lead to observed negative ${V}_{Eff}$. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model, we examined how vaccinated-contact heterogeneity, defined as an increase in the contact rate only between vaccinated individuals, interacted with 2 mechanisms of vaccine efficacy: vaccine efficacy against susceptibility ($V{E}_S$) and vaccine efficacy against infectiousness ($V{E}_I$), to produce underestimated and in some cases, negative measurements of ${V}_{Eff}$. We found that vaccinated-contact heterogeneity led to negative estimates when $V{E}_I$, and especially $V{E}_S$, were low. Moreover, we determined that when contact heterogeneity was very high, ${V}_{Eff}$ could still be underestimated given relatively high vaccine efficacies (0.7), although its effect on ${V}_{Eff}$ was strongly reduced. We also found that this contact heterogeneity mechanism generated a signature temporal pattern: The largest underestimates and negative measurements of ${V}_{Eff}$ occurred during epidemic growth. Overall, our research illustrates how vaccinated-contact heterogeneity could have feasibly produced negative measurements during the Omicron period and highlights its general ability to bias observational studies of ${V}_{Eff}$.

Moderators of the Association Between Contact Frequency With Non-Cohabitating Adult Children and Depressive Symptoms Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

Contact frequency with adult children plays a critical role in late-life depression. However, evidence on possible moderators of this association remains limited. Moreover, considering alterations in contact modes after the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic, there is a need to investigate this association post-pandemic to develop effective therapeutic interventions.

METHODS

This study included 7,573 older adults who completed the Living Profiles of the Older People Survey in Korea. Participants' contact frequency and depressive symptoms were analyzed. Regression analysis was performed after adjusting for covariates. The moderating effects of variables were verified using a process macro.

RESULTS

Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that infrequent face-to-face (odd ratio [OR]=1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.55-2.22) and non-face-to-face contact (OR=1.23, 95% CI=1.04-1.45) in the non-cohabitating adult children group was associated with a higher risk of late-life depression compared to that in the frequent contact group. Linear regression analysis indicated consistent results for face-to-face and non-face-to-face contact (estimate=0.458, standard error [SE]=0.090, p<0.001 and estimate=0.236, SE= 0.074, p=0.001, respectively). Moderation analysis revealed that the association between late-life depression and frequency of face-toface contact was moderated by age, household income quartiles, number of chronic diseases, physical activity frequency, presence of spouse, nutritional status, and whether the effect of frequency of non-face-to-face contact on late-life depression was increased by participation in social activity, frequent physical activity, and good cognitive function (p for interaction<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Frequent contact with non-cohabitating children lowers the risk of depression later in life. Several variables were identified as significant moderators of contact frequency and depression symptoms.

Association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2: a household transmission study

Background

Households are an important location for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, especially during periods when travel and work was restricted to essential services. We aimed to assess the association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Methods

We deployed proximity sensors for two weeks to measure face-to-face interactions between household members after SARS-CoV-2 was identified in the household, in South Africa, 2020-2021. We calculated the duration, frequency, and average duration of close-range proximity events with SARS-CoV-2 index cases. We assessed the association of contact parameters with SARS-CoV-2 transmission using mixed effects logistic regression accounting for index and household member characteristics.

Results

We included 340 individuals (88 SARS-CoV-2 index cases and 252 household members). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition were index cases with minimum C_t value <30 (aOR 16.8 95% CI 3.1-93.1) vs >35, and female contacts (aOR 2.5 95% CI 1.3-5.0). No contact parameters were associated with acquisition (aOR 1.0-1.1) for any of the duration, frequency, cumulative time in contact, or average duration parameters.

Conclusions

We did not find an association between close-range proximity events and SARS-CoV-2 household transmission. Our findings may be due to study limitations, that droplet-mediated transmission during close-proximity contacts plays a smaller role than airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the household, or due to high contact rates in households.

Funding

Wellcome Trust (Grant number 221003/Z/20/Z) in collaboration with the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, United Kingdom.

The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics have been greatly modulated by human contact behaviour. To curb the spread of the virus, global efforts focused on implementing both Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccination. This study was conducted to explore the influence of COVID-19 vaccination status and risk perceptions related to SARS-CoV-2 on the number of social contacts of individuals in 16 European countries.

METHODS

We used data from longitudinal surveys conducted in the 16 European countries to measure social contact behaviour in the course of the pandemic. The data consisted of representative panels of participants in terms of gender, age and region of residence in each country. The surveys were conducted in several rounds between December 2020 and September 2021 and comprised of 29,292 participants providing a total of 111,103 completed surveys. We employed a multilevel generalized linear mixed effects model to explore the influence of risk perceptions and COVID-19 vaccination status on the number of social contacts of individuals.

RESULTS

The results indicated that perceived severity played a significant role in social contact behaviour during the pandemic after controlling for other variables (p-value < 0.001). More specifically, participants who had low or neutral levels of perceived severity reported 1.25 (95% Confidence intervals (CI) 1.13 - 1.37) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.00 - 1.21) times more contacts compared to those who perceived COVID-19 to be a serious illness, respectively. Additionally, vaccination status was also a significant predictor of contacts (p-value < 0.001), with vaccinated individuals reporting 1.31 (95% CI 1.23 - 1.39) times higher number of contacts than the non-vaccinated. Furthermore, individual-level factors played a more substantial role in influencing contact behaviour than country-level factors.

CONCLUSION

Our multi-country study yields significant insights on the importance of risk perceptions and vaccination in behavioral changes during a pandemic emergency. The apparent increase in social contact behaviour following vaccination would require urgent intervention in the event of emergence of an immune escaping variant.

Longitudinal social contact data analysis: insights from 2 years of data collection in Belgium during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the CoMix study, a longitudinal behavioral survey, was designed to monitor social contacts and public awareness in multiple countries, including Belgium. As a longitudinal survey, it is vulnerable to participants' "survey fatigue", which may impact inferences.

METHODS

A negative binomial generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (NBI GAMLSS) was adopted to estimate the number of contacts reported between age groups and to deal with under-reporting due to fatigue within the study. The dropout process was analyzed with first-order auto-regressive logistic regression to identify factors that influence dropout. Using the so-called next generation principle, we calculated the effect of under-reporting due to fatigue on estimating the reproduction number.

RESULTS

Fewer contacts were reported as people participated longer in the survey, which suggests under-reporting due to survey fatigue. Participant dropout is significantly affected by household size and age categories, but not significantly affected by the number of contacts reported in any of the two latest waves. This indicates covariate-dependent missing completely at random (MCAR) in the dropout pattern, when missing at random (MAR) is the alternative. However, we cannot rule out more complex mechanisms such as missing not at random (MNAR). Moreover, under-reporting due to fatigue is found to be consistent over time and implies a 15-30% reduction in both the number of contacts and the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) ratio between correcting and not correcting for under-reporting. Lastly, we found that correcting for fatigue did not change the pattern of relative incidence between age groups also when considering age-specific heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity.

CONCLUSIONS

CoMix data highlights the variability of contact patterns across age groups and time, revealing the mechanisms governing the spread/transmission of COVID-19/airborne diseases in the population. Although such longitudinal contact surveys are prone to the under-reporting due to participant fatigue and drop-out, we showed that these factors can be identified and corrected using NBI GAMLSS. This information can be used to improve the design of similar, future surveys.

Social networks and health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative study among older adults in the Netherlands

Aim

Social networks, all social relationships that people have, may influence people's health behavior and well-being, which was evaluated in this qualitative study in older adults. Furthermore, we evaluated people's needs for strengthening social networks.

Subject and methods

For this qualitative study, semi-structured interviews were conducted between May and July 2021 among 24 adults aged 60 years and older.

Results

Respondents provided information on social network structure (number and types of relations) and function (social support). They received informational support from friends, emotional support from their partner/spouse, and all types of support (including practical support) from family. Respondents stated that their health behavior was mainly influenced by a partner/spouse. Family and friends were mostly for socializing. To strengthen networks, in-person bilateral or small group interactions were preferred.

Conclusion

Family and friends were important social supporters and positively influenced health behaviors. This study emphasizes the importance of social networks in health promotion.

Comparing the effects of reduced social contact on psychosocial wellbeing before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal survey from two Norwegian counties

PURPOSE

To determine changes to people's social contact during COVID-19, and whether reduced social contact was associated with changes to psychosocial wellbeing.

METHODS

Questionnaire data were collected from a sample of adult respondents (18 years or more) in two Norwegian counties participating pre-COVID-19 (September 2019-February 2020; n = 20,196) and at two time points during COVID-19 (June [Mid] and November/December [Late] 2020; n = 11,953 and n = 10,968, respectively). The main outcome measures were participants' self-reported changes to social contact, loneliness, psychological distress, and life satisfaction.

RESULTS

The proportion of respondents reporting less social contact due to COVID-19 decreased from 62% in Mid-2020 to 55% in Late-2020. Overall, reported psychological wellbeing remained unchanged or improved from pre-COVID-19 to Mid-2020. From Mid-2020 to Late-2020, however, a reduction in psychological wellbeing was observed. Poorer psychological wellbeing was found for those with less social contact during the pandemic compared with people reporting unchanged social contact. This effect increased over time and was observed for all age groups at Late-2020. At Mid-2020, the importance of change in social contact for change in psychological wellbeing was greatest among young adults (< 30 years), while no significant differences were found for the oldest age group.

CONCLUSION

The association between COVID-19-era changes to social contact and loneliness, psychological distress, and life satisfaction is complex and appears to be age-dependent. Future studies should consider the quality of social contact and cultural contexts in which social restrictions are imposed.

Impact of tiered measures on social contact and mixing patterns of in Italy during the second wave of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Most countries around the world enforced non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19. Italy was one of the first countries to be affected by the pandemic, imposing a hard lockdown, in the first epidemic wave. During the second wave, the country implemented progressively restrictive tiers at the regional level according to weekly epidemiological risk assessments. This paper quantifies the impact of these restrictions on contacts and on the reproduction number.

METHODS

Representative (with respect to age, sex, and region of residence) longitudinal surveys of the Italian population were undertaken during the second epidemic wave. Epidemiologically relevant contact patterns were measured and compared with pre-pandemic levels and according to the level of interventions experienced by the participants. Contact matrices were used to quantify the reduction in the number of contacts by age group and contact setting. The reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the impact of restrictions on the spread of COVID-19.

RESULTS

The comparison with the pre-pandemic baseline shows a significant decrease in the number of contacts, independently from the age group or contact settings. This decrease in the number of contacts significantly depends on the strictness of the non-pharmaceutical interventions. For all levels of strictness considered, the reduction in social mixing results in a reproduction number smaller than one. In particular, the impact of the restriction on the number of contacts decreases with the severity of the interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

The progressive restriction tiers implemented in Italy reduced the reproduction number, with stricter interventions associated with higher reductions. Readily collected contact data can inform the implementation of mitigation measures at the national level in epidemic emergencies to come.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and social contact patterns in Pakistan: results from a national cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is a key tool against COVID-19. However, in many settings it is not clear how acceptable COVID-19 vaccination is among the general population, or how hesitancy correlates with risk of disease acquisition. In this study we conducted a nationally representative survey in Pakistan to measure vaccination perceptions and social contacts in the context of COVID-19 control measures and vaccination programmes.

METHODS

We conducted a vaccine perception and social contact survey with 3,658 respondents across five provinces in Pakistan, between 31 May and 29 June 2021. Respondents were asked a series of vaccine perceptions questions, to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, and a number of other questions regarding the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined variation in perceptions and contact patterns by geographic and demographic factors. We describe knowledge, experiences and perceived risks of COVID-19. We explored variation in contact patterns by individual characteristics and vaccine hesitancy, and compared to patterns from non-pandemic periods.

RESULTS

Self-reported adherence to self-isolation guidelines was poor, and 51% of respondents did not know where to access a COVID-19 test. Although 48.1% of participants agreed that they would get a vaccine if offered, vaccine hesitancy was higher than in previous surveys, and greatest in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces and among respondents of lower socioeconomic status. Participants reported a median of 5 contacts the previous day (IQR: 3-5, mean 14.0, 95%CI: 13.2, 14.9). There were no substantial differences in the number of contacts reported by individual characteristics, but contacts varied substantially among respondents reporting more or less vaccine hesitancy. Contacts were highly assortative, particularly outside the household where 97% of men's contacts were with other men. We estimate that social contacts were 9% lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the perceived risk of COVID-19 in Pakistan is low in the general population, around half of participants in this survey indicated they would get vaccinated if offered. Vaccine impact studies which do not account for correlation between social contacts and vaccine hesitancy may incorrectly estimate the impact of vaccines, for example, if unvaccinated people have more contacts.

Evaluating primary and booster vaccination prioritization strategies for COVID-19 by age and high-contact employment status using data from contact surveys

The debate around vaccine prioritization for COVID-19 has revolved around balancing the benefits from: (1) the direct protection conferred by the vaccine amongst those at highest risk of severe disease outcomes, and (2) the indirect protection through vaccinating those that are at highest risk of being infected and of transmitting the virus. While adults aged 65+ are at highest risk for severe disease and death from COVID-19, essential service and other in-person workers with greater rates of contact may be at higher risk of acquiring and transmitting SARS-CoV-2. Unfortunately, there have been relatively little data available to understand heterogeneity in contact rates and risk across these demographic groups. Here, we retrospectively analyze and evaluate vaccination prioritization strategies by age and worker status. We use a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and uniquely detailed contact data collected as part of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey to evaluate five vaccination prioritization strategies: (1) prioritizing only adults over age 65, (2) prioritizing only high-contact workers, (3) splitting prioritization between adults 65+ and high-contact workers, (4) tiered prioritization of adults over age 65 followed by high-contact workers, and (5) tiered prioritization of high-contact workers followed by adults 65+. We find that for the primary two-dose vaccination schedule, assuming 70% uptake, a tiered roll-out that first prioritizes adults 65+ averts the most deaths (31% fewer deaths compared to a no-vaccination scenario) while a tiered roll-out that prioritizes high contact workers averts the most number of clinical infections (14% fewer clinical infections compared to a no-vaccination scenario). We also consider prioritization strategies for booster doses during a subsequent outbreak of a hypothetical new SARS-CoV-2 variant. We find that a tiered roll-out that prioritizes adults 65+ for booster doses consistently averts the most deaths, and it may also avert the most number of clinical cases depending on the epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 variant and the vaccine efficacy.

Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed.

METHODS

We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels.

RESULTS

We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection.

CONCLUSIONS

These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.

Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks

Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. A timely exchange of information related to the spread of novel pathogens, stay-at-home orders, and other measures can be effective at containing an infectious disease, particularly during the early stages when testing infrastructure, vaccines, and other medical interventions may not be available at scale. Using a multiplex epidemic model that consists of an information layer (modeling information exchange between individuals) and a spatially embedded epidemic layer (representing a human contact network), we study how random and targeted disruptions in the information layer (e.g., errors and intentional attacks on communication infrastructure) impact the total proportion of infections, peak prevalence (i.e., the maximum proportion of infections), and the time to reach peak prevalence. We calibrate our model to the early outbreak stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020. Mitigation campaigns can still be effective under random disruptions, such as failure of information channels between a few individuals. However, targeted disruptions or sabotage of hub nodes that exchange information with a large number of individuals can abruptly change outbreak characteristics, such as the time to reach the peak of infection. Our results emphasize the importance of the availability of a robust communication infrastructure during an outbreak that can withstand both random and targeted disruptions.

Parent and child influence in body image dissatisfaction: The moderating effect of parent acceptance of the COVID-19 pandemic

The present study investigated the influence of parent and child-driven effects on body image dissatisfaction during the COVID-19 pandemic. The moderating effect of parents' acceptance of the COVID-19 pandemic and child gender were also investigated. The participants were 175 Canadian parents (mothers = 87.4%, fathers = 12%, unspecified = 0.6%) of children aged between 7 and 12 years old (M = 9.2; boys = 48.9%, girls = 51.1%). Two cohorts of parents were asked to complete a questionnaire in June 2020 and January 2021, respectively, followed by a second questionnaire approximately five months later. At both time points, the questionnaires addressed the parents' body image dissatisfaction and acceptance of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, parents reported on their child's body image dissatisfaction at both time points. Path analysis models were used to examine parent-driven and child-driven effects. Parents' acceptance of the pandemic significantly moderated both parent and child-driven effects such that parents with low levels of acceptance were more likely to negatively influence, and be negatively influenced by, their perception of their child's body image dissatisfaction. Child gender significantly moderated child-driven effects, as mothers' perception of their son's body image dissatisfaction predicted their own dissatisfaction over time. Our findings suggest that child-driven effects should be considered in future studies on body image dissatisfaction.

A model of behavioural response to risk accurately predicts the statistical distribution of COVID-19 infection and reproduction numbers

One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation where people's behaviour is influenced by the current risk of infection and where this behavioural response acts homeostatically to return infection risk to a certain preferred level. This homeostatic response is active until approximate herd immunity is reached: in this domain the model predicts that the reproduction rate R will be centred around a median of 1, that proportional change in infection numbers will follow the standard Cauchy distribution with location and scale parameters 0 and 1, and that high infection numbers will follow a power-law frequency distribution with exponent 2. To test these predictions we used worldwide COVID-19 data from 1st February 2020 to 30th June 2022 to calculate [Formula: see text] confidence interval estimates across countries for these R, location, scale and exponent parameters. The resulting median R estimate was [Formula: see text] (predicted value 1) the proportional change location estimate was [Formula: see text] (predicted value 0), the proportional change scale estimate was [Formula: see text] (predicted value 1), and the frequency distribution exponent estimate was [Formula: see text] (predicted value 2); in each case the observed estimate agreed with model predictions.

Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

Introduction

Coronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines.

Method

We developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers’ behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city.

Results

Local sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island.

Discussion

Our SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.

Socioeconomic differences in the reduction of face-to-face contacts in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to physical distancing measures to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Evidence on contact dynamics in different socioeconomic groups is still sparse. This study aimed to investigate the association of socioeconomic status with private and professional contact reductions in the first COVID-19 wave in Germany.

METHODS

Data from two especially affected municipalities were derived from the population-based cross-sectional seroepidemiological CORONA-MONITORING lokal study (data collection May-July 2020). The study sample (n = 3,637) was restricted to working age (18-67 years). We calculated the association of educational and occupational status (low, medium, high) with self-reported private and professional contact reductions with respect to former contact levels in the first wave of the pandemic. Multivariate Poisson regressions were performed to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) adjusted for municipality, age, gender, country of birth, household size, contact levels before physical distancing measures, own infection status, contact to SARS-CoV-2 infected people and working remotely.

RESULTS

The analyses showed significant differences in the initial level of private and professional contacts by educational and occupational status. Less private contact reductions with lower educational status (PR low vs. high = 0,79 [CI = 0.68-0.91], p = 0.002; PR medium vs. high = 0,93 [CI = 0.89-0.97], p = 0.001) and less professional contact reductions with lower educational status (PR low vs. high = 0,87 [CI = 0.70-1.07], p = 0.179; PR medium vs. high = 0,89 [CI = 0.83-0.95], p = 0.001) and lower occupational status (PR low vs. high = 0,62 [CI = 0.55-0.71], p < 0.001; PR medium vs. high = 0,82 [CI = 0.77-0.88], p < 0.001) were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate disadvantages for groups with lower socioeconomic status in private and professional contact reductions in the first wave of the pandemic. This may be associated with the higher risk of infection among individuals in lower socioeconomic groups. Preventive measures that a) adequately explain the importance of contact restrictions with respect to varying living and working conditions and b) facilitate the implementation of these reductions especially in the occupational setting seem necessary to better protect structurally disadvantaged groups during epidemics.

Changing social contact patterns among US workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: April 2020 to December 2021

Non-pharmaceutical interventions minimize social contacts, hence the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We quantified two-day contact patterns among USA employees from 2020-2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contacts were defined as face-to-face conversations, involving physical touch or proximity to another individual and were collected using electronic diaries. Mean (standard deviation) contacts reported by 1,456 participants were 2.5 (2.5), 8.2 (7.1), 9.2 (7.1) and 10.1 (9.5) across round 1 (April-June 2020), 2 (November 2020-January 2021), 3 (June-August 2021), and 4 (November-December 2021), respectively. Between round 1 and 2, we report a 3-fold increase in the mean number of contacts reported per participant with no major increases from round 2-4. We modeled SARS-CoV-2 transmission at home, work, and community. The model revealed reduced relative transmission in all settings in round 1. Subsequently, transmission increased at home and in the community but remained very low in work settings. Contact data are important to parameterize models of infection transmission and control.

Teaser

Changes in social contact patterns shape disease dynamics at workplaces in the USA.

Social mixing patterns in the UK following the relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, July-August 2020: a cross-sectional online survey

OBJECTIVES

To quantify and characterise non-household contact and to identify the effect of shielding and isolating on contact patterns.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Anyone living in the UK was eligible to take part in the study. We recorded 5143 responses to the online questionnaire between 28 July 2020 and 14 August 2020.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Our primary outcome was the daily non-household contact rate of participants. Secondary outcomes were propensity to leave home over a 7 day period, whether contacts had occurred indoors or outdoors locations visited, the furthest distance travelled from home, ability to socially distance and membership of support bubble.

RESULTS

The mean rate of non-household contacts per person was 2.9 d^-1. Participants attending a workplace (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 3.33, 95% CI 3.02 to 3.66), self-employed (aIRR 1.63, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.87) or working in healthcare (aIRR 5.10, 95% CI 4.29 to 6.10) reported significantly higher non-household contact rates than those working from home. Participants self-isolating as a precaution or following Test and Trace instructions had a lower non-household contact rate than those not self-isolating (aIRR 0.58, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.79). We found limited evidence that those shielding had reduced non-household contacts compared with non-shielders.

CONCLUSION

The daily rate of non-household interactions remained lower than prepandemic levels measured by other studies, suggesting continued adherence to social distancing guidelines. Individuals attending a workplace in-person or employed as healthcare professionals were less likely to maintain social distance and had a higher non-household contact rate, possibly increasing their infection risk. Shielding and self-isolating individuals required greater support to enable them to follow the government guidelines and reduce non-household contact and therefore their risk of infection.

Novel estimates reveal subnational heterogeneities in disease-relevant contact patterns in the United States

Population contact patterns fundamentally determine the spread of directly transmitted airborne pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. Reliable quantitative estimates of contact patterns are therefore critical to modeling and reducing the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases and to assessing the effectiveness of interventions intended to limit risky contacts. While many countries have used surveys and contact diaries to collect national-level contact data, local-level estimates of age-specific contact patterns remain rare. Yet, these local-level data are critical since disease dynamics and public health policy typically vary by geography. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a flexible model that can estimate age-specific contact patterns at the subnational level by combining national-level interpersonal contact data with other locality-specific data sources using multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP). We estimate daily contact matrices for all 50 US states and Washington DC from April 2020 to May 2021 using national contact data from the US. Our results reveal important state-level heterogeneities in levels and trends of contacts across the US over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with implications for the spread of respiratory diseases.

Use of surveillance data to elucidate household clustering of SARS-CoV-2 in Fulton County, Georgia a major metropolitan area

BACKGROUND

Households are important for SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to high intensity exposure in enclosed spaces over prolonged durations. We quantified and characterized household clustering of COVID-19 cases in Fulton County, Georgia.

METHODS

We used surveillance data to identify all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Fulton County. Household clustered cases were defined as cases with matching residential address. We described the proportion of COVID-19 cases that were clustered, stratified by age over time and explore trends in age of first diagnosed case within households and subsequent household cases.

RESULTS

Between June 1, 2020 and October 31, 2021, 31,449(37%) of 106,233 cases were clustered in households. Children were the most likely to be in household clusters than any other age group. Initially, children were rarely (∼ 10%) the first cases diagnosed in the household but increased to almost 1 of 3 in later periods.

DISCUSSION

One-third of COVID-19 cases in Fulton County were part of a household cluster. Increasingly children were the first diagnosed case, coinciding with temporal trends in vaccine roll-out among the elderly and the return to in-person schooling in Fall 2021. Limitations include restrictions to cases with a valid address and unit number and that the first diagnosed case may not be the infection source for the household.

Perspectives of Parents and Teachers on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Children's Socio-Emotional Well-Being

The negative impacts of COVID 19 on children's holistic development have been reported by researchers around the world. This qualitative study explored teachers' and parents' perspectives on the impact of physical/social distancing and school closure policies on children's socioemotional development. The study was conducted in fall 2020. The sample included four U.S. Preschools teachers (for 4-year-olds), four international preschool teachers (for 4, 5-year-olds), three U.S. Kindergarten teaches (for 5-year-olds), and 4 U.S. parents of 4 and 5-year-olds. Interviews were conducted over Zoom. Participants shared that the social deprivation experienced by children such as lack of friendships, absence of peer learning and peer communication, loss of play time, and lack of socialization impacted their children's socialization skills, higher order thinking development, mental health, and activity levels. Participants also shared that their children exhibited externalizing behaviors such as acting out, throwing tantrums, seeking negative attention, aggressiveness, lying, and showing disrespect. Participants reported children's life skills acquisition issues such as their over reliance on parents and difficulty in performing routine tasks. Participating teachers who taught 5-years-olds reported lower levels of fine motor skills among their students. The findings of the study suggest that although children have experienced severe academic learning loss during the pandemic, the post-pandemic ECE curriculum must keep a strong socio-emotional and practical life skills focus which contributes to children's overall well-being. Future studies may adopt a mixed method design in multi-country contexts to evaluate the impact of interventions implemented by early childhood programs on children's socioemotional health.

Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility

BACKGROUND

After a rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Italy during the fall of 2020, the government introduced a three-tiered restriction system aimed at increasing physical distancing. The Ministry of Health, after periodic epidemiological risk assessments, assigned a tier to each of the 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces. It is still unclear to what extent these different sets of measures altered the number of daily interactions and the social mixing patterns.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a survey between July 2020 and March 2021 to monitor changes in social contact patterns among individuals in the metropolitan city of Milan, Italy, which was hardly hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of daily contacts during periods characterized by different levels of restrictions was analyzed through negative binomial regression models and age-specific contact matrices were estimated under the different tiers of restrictions. By relying on the empirically estimated mixing patterns, we quantified relative changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential associated with the different tiers. As tighter restrictions were implemented during the fall of 2020, a progressive reduction in the mean number of daily contacts recorded by study participants was observed: from 15.9 % under mild restrictions (yellow tier), to 41.8 % under strong restrictions (red tier). Higher restrictions levels were also found to increase the relative contribution of contacts occurring within the household. The SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number was estimated to decrease by 17.1 % (95 %CI: 1.5-30.1), 25.1 % (95 %CI: 13.0-36.0) and 44.7 % (95 %CI: 33.9-53.0) under the yellow, orange, and red tiers, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results give an important quantification of the expected contribution of different restriction levels in shaping social contacts and decreasing the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. These estimates can find an operational use in anticipating the effect that the implementation of these tiered restriction can have on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number under an evolving epidemiological situation.

Cohort profile: the British Columbia COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns Survey (BC-Mix)

PURPOSE

Several non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing, handwashing, self-isolation, and school and business closures, were implemented in British Columbia (BC) following the first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 on 26 January 2020, to minimise in-person contacts that could spread infections. The BC COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns Survey (BC-Mix) was established as a surveillance system to measure behaviour and contact patterns in BC over time to inform the timing of the easing/re-imposition of control measures. In this paper, we describe the BC-Mix survey design and the demographic characteristics of respondents.

PARTICIPANTS

The ongoing repeated online survey was launched in September 2020. Participants are mainly recruited through social media platforms (including Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp). A follow-up survey is sent to participants 2-4 weeks after completing the baseline survey. Survey responses are weighted to BC's population by age, sex, geography and ethnicity to obtain generalisable estimates. Additional indices such as the Material and Social Deprivation Index, residential instability, economic dependency, and others are generated using census and location data.

FINDINGS TO DATE

As of 26 July 2021, over 61 000 baseline survey responses were received of which 41 375 were eligible for analysis. Of the eligible participants, about 60% consented to follow-up and about 27% provided their personal health numbers for linkage with healthcare databases. Approximately 83.5% of respondents were female, 58.7% were 55 years or older, 87.5% identified as white and 45.9% had at least a university degree. After weighting, approximately 50% were female, 39% were 55 years or older, 65% identified as white and 50% had at least a university degree.

FUTURE PLANS

Multiple papers describing contact patterns, physical distancing measures, regular handwashing and facemask wearing, modelling looking at impact of physical distancing measures and vaccine acceptance, hesitancy and uptake are either in progress or have been published.

Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England

Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some of these NPIs are extremely costly (economically and socially), so it was important to relax these promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy was a Roadmap of four relaxation steps throughout 2021, taking England from lock-down to the cessation of all restrictions on social interaction. In a series of six Roadmap documents generated throughout 2021, models assessed the potential risk of each relaxation step. Here we show that the model projections generated a reliable estimation of medium-term hospital admission trends, with the data points up to September 2021 generally lying within our 95% prediction intervals. The greatest uncertainties in the modelled scenarios came from vaccine efficacy estimates against novel variants, and from assumptions about human behaviour in the face of changing restrictions and risk.

The hiatus of the handshake

Human contact has been altered in ways that may affect endemic infections for years to come.

Patterns of human social contact and mask wearing in high-risk groups in China

Background

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed human behavior in areas such as contact patterns and mask-wearing frequency. Exploring human–human contact patterns and mask-wearing habits in high-risk groups is an essential step in fully understanding the transmission of respiratory infection-based diseases. This study had aims to quantify local human–human (H–H) contacts in high-risk groups in representative provinces of China and to explore the occupation-specific assortativity and heterogeneity of social contacts.

Methods

Delivery workers, medical workers, preschoolers, and students from Qinghai, Shanghai, and Zhejiang were recruited to complete an online questionnaire that queried general information, logged contacts, and assessed the willingness to wear a mask in different settings. The “group contact” was defined as contact with a group at least 20 individuals. The numbers of contacts across different characteristics were assessed and age-specific contact matrices were established. A generalized additive mixed model was used to analyze the associations between the number of individual contacts and several characteristics. The factors influencing the frequency of mask wearing were evaluated with a logistic regression model.

Results

A total of 611,287 contacts were reported by 15,635 participants. The frequency of daily individual contacts averaged 3.14 (95% confidence interval: 3.13–3.15) people per day, while that of group contacts was 37.90 (95% CI: 37.20–38.70). Skin-to-skin contact and long-duration contact were more likely to occur at home or among family members. Contact matrices of students were the most assortative (all contacts q-index = 0.899, 95% CI: 0.894–0.904). Participants with larger household sizes reported having more contacts. Higher household income per capita was significantly associated with a greater number of contacts among preschoolers (P_{50,000–99,999} = 0.033) and students (P_{10,000–29,999} = 0.017). In each of the public places, the frequency of mask wearing was highest for delivery workers. For preschoolers and students with more contacts, the proportion of those who reported always wearing masks was lower (P < 0.05) in schools/workplaces and public transportation than preschoolers and students with fewer contacts.

Conclusions

Contact screening efforts should be concentrated in the home, school, and workplace after an outbreak of an epidemic, as more than 75% of all contacts, on average, will be found in such places. Efforts should be made to improve the mask-wearing rate and age-specific health promotion measures aimed at reducing transmission for the younger demographic. Age-stratified and occupation-specific social contact research in high-risk groups could help inform policy-making decisions during the post-relaxation period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00988-8.

Self-Care and Mental Health Among College Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Social and Physical Environment Features of Interactions Which Impact Meaningfulness and Mitigate Loneliness

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted patterns and limited opportunities for social interaction, which increased already high loneliness rates among college students. Meaningful social interactions can mitigate negative mental health outcomes such as loneliness and bolster social support, which is in turn linked to better self-care practices. Social connection can aid in self-care through social support as well as be considered a self-care practice itself to counter the negative effects of loneliness. This study examined the social interaction patterns of 132 college students from a mid-sized United States university during the pandemic to understand which characteristics support meaningful interactions. Students completed an online survey from October through December 2020 to report details of their 2020 and 2019 social interactions, as well as their most recent interactions, including time spent, the mode (in-person versus virtual), their relationship to others in the interaction, the type of activity and privacy of the setting. Results found that students spent significantly less time interacting with non-roommates in-person in 2020, and more time in voice and video calls. No differences were found for texting and in-person roommate interactions. Meaningfulness was significantly higher for interactions with family or friends. Students reported the highest meaning for interactions that were planned and in-person, with lowest meaning for planned virtual interactions. No differences were observed for meaningfulness based on the type of interaction activity or privacy of the setting. Understanding the characteristics of the most meaningful interactions can help college students prioritize social interactions that may best promote self-care, mitigate loneliness, and bolster social support. High meaningfulness scores for planned in-person interactions suggests that these types of interactions may be most valuable for maintaining existing self-care patterns, engaging in self-care activities, and receiving support. Self-care activities for college students, including social interactions, were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have further exacerbated loneliness. College students should be encouraged to consciously engage in person with family and friends to practice self-care and maintain or improve mental health. Strategically selecting interactions that will optimize meaningfulness may therefore be critical to helping students to maintain positive mental health during and beyond the pandemic.

Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model

The vaccines are considered to be important for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, considering the limited vaccine supply within an extended period of time in many countries where COVID-19 vaccine booster shot are taken and new vaccines are developed to suppress the mutation of virus, designing an effective vaccination strategy is extremely important to reduce the number of deaths and infections. Then, the simulations were implemented to study the relative reduction in morbidity and mortality of vaccine allocation strategies by using the proposed model and actual South Africa's epidemiological data. Our results indicated that in light of South Africa's demographics, vaccinating older age groups (>60 years) largely reduced the cumulative deaths and the "0-20 first" strategy was the most effective way to reduce confirmed cases. In addition, "21-30 first" and "31-40 first" strategies have also had a positive effect. Partial vaccination resulted in lower numbers of infections and deaths under different control measures compared with full vaccination in low-income countries. In addition, we analyzed the sensitivity of daily testing volume and infection rate, which are critical to optimize vaccine allocation. However, comprehensive reduction in infections was mainly affected by the vaccine proportion of the target age group. An increase in the proportion of vaccines given priority to "0-20" groups always had a favorable effect, and the prioritizing vaccine allocation among the "60+" age group with 60% of the total amount of vaccine consistently resulted in the greatest reduction in deaths. Meanwhile, we observed a significant distinction in the effect of COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies under varying priority strategies on relative reductions in the effective reproduction number. Our results could help evaluate to control measures performance and the improvement of vaccine allocation strategy for COVID-19 epidemic.

SMD-YOLO: An efficient and lightweight detection method for mask wearing status during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

At present, the COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading worldwide and wearing a mask in public areas is an effective way to prevent the spread of the respiratory virus. Although there are many deep learning methods used for detecting the face masks, there are few lightweight detectors having a good effect on small or medium-size face masks detection in the complicated environments.

METHODS

In this work we propose an efficient and lightweight detection method based on YOLOv4-tiny, and a face mask detection and monitoring system for mask wearing status. Two feasible improvement strategies, network structure optimization and K-means++ clustering algorithm, are utilized for improving the detection accuracy on the premise of ensuring the real-time face masks recognition. Particularly, the improved residual module and cross fusion module are designed to aim at extracting the features of small or medium-size targets effectively. Moreover, the enhanced dual attention mechanism and the improved spatial pyramid pooling module are employed for merging sufficiently the deep and shallow semantic information and expanding the receptive field. Afterwards, the detection accuracy is compensated through the combination of activation functions. Finally, the depthwise separable convolution module is used to reduce the quantity of parameters and improve the detection efficiency. Our proposed detector is evaluated on a public face mask dataset, and an ablation experiment is also provided to verify the effectiveness of our proposed model, which is compared with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) models as well.

RESULTS

Our proposed detector increases the AP (average precision) values in each category of the public face mask dataset compared with the original YOLOv4-tiny. The mAP (mean average precision) is improved by 4.56% and the speed reaches 92.81 FPS. Meanwhile, the quantity of parameters and the FLOPs (floating-point operations) are reduced by 1/3, 16.48%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed detector achieves better overall detection performance compared with other SOTA detectors for real-time mask detection, demonstrated the superiority with both theoretical value and practical significance. The developed system also brings greater flexibility to the application of face mask detection in hospitals, campuses, communities, etc.

Time trends in social contacts before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the CONNECT study

BACKGROUND

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries, including Canada, have adopted unprecedented physical distancing measures such as closure of schools and non-essential businesses, and restrictions on gatherings and household visits. We described time trends in social contacts for the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in Quebec, Canada.

METHODS

CONNECT is a population-based study of social contacts conducted shortly before (2018/2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020 - February 2021), using the same methodology for both periods. We recruited participants by random digit dialing and collected data by self-administered web-based questionnaires. Questionnaires documented socio-demographic characteristics and social contacts for two assigned days. A contact was defined as a two-way conversation at a distance ≤ 2 m or as a physical contact, irrespective of masking. We used weighted generalized linear models with a Poisson distribution and robust variance (taking possible overdispersion into account) to compare the mean number of social contacts over time and by socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 1291 and 5516 Quebecers completed the study before and during the pandemic, respectively. Contacts significantly decreased from a mean of 8 contacts/day prior to the pandemic to 3 contacts/day during the spring 2020 lockdown. Contacts remained lower than the pre-COVID period thereafter (lowest = 3 contacts/day during the Christmas 2020/2021 holidays, highest = 5 in September 2020). Contacts at work, during leisure activities/in other locations, and at home with visitors showed the greatest decreases since the beginning of the pandemic. All sociodemographic subgroups showed significant decreases of contacts since the beginning of the pandemic. The mixing matrices illustrated the impact of public health measures (e.g. school closure, gathering restrictions) with fewer contacts between children/teenagers and fewer contacts outside of the three main diagonals of contacts between same-age partners/siblings and between children and their parents.

CONCLUSION

Physical distancing measures in Quebec significantly decreased social contacts, which most likely mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

Back to life, back to reality: A multi-level dynamic network analysis of student mental health upon return to campus during the COVID-19 pandemic

Lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in drastic disruptions of university students' everyday life and study mode, such as marked reductions in face-to-face teaching activities. Previous research on student mental health during the pandemic found that prolonged campus relocation had negative effects on students' mental well-being. However, these studies focussed on the initial lockdown period, or periods of active lockdown measures. This longitudinal study collected 456 observations of 23 undergraduate students in the Netherlands using ecological momentary assessment data on mental health related items (anxiety, stress, social context) during the first two weeks of on-campus teaching after prolonged lockdown measures. Using multi-level dynamic network modelling, we analysed the temporal and contemporaneous interplay of students' mental health factors following the return to campus in September 2021. On average, students reported low to medium scores on stress and anxiety both before and after the assessment period. Results of network analyses showed that students experienced social unease in relation to accumulating difficulties at university and vice versa. Furthermore, there were clusters of different states of social unease next to clusters of stress, anger, loss of control, and feeling upset. Lastly, we found beneficial effects of self-efficacy on experiencing social comfort in university. We discuss implications and concrete examples of interventions in universities, such as the promotion of self-efficacy, providing guidance in structuring study load, as well as help with stress management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-022-03196-7.

Nationally Representative Social Contact Patterns among U.S. adults, August 2020-April 2021

The response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S prompted abrupt and dramatic changes to social contact patterns. Monitoring changing social behavior is essential to provide reliable input data for mechanistic models of infectious disease, which have been increasingly used to support public health policy to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. While some studies have reported on changing contact patterns throughout the pandemic., few have reported on differences in contact patterns among key demographic groups and none have reported nationally representative estimates. We conducted a national probability survey of US households and collected information on social contact patterns during two time periods: August-December 2020 (before widespread vaccine availability) and March-April 2021 (during national vaccine rollout). Overall, contact rates in Spring 2021 were similar to those in Fall 2020, with most contacts reported at work. Persons identifying as non-White, non-Black, non-Asian, and non-Hispanic reported high numbers of contacts relative to other racial and ethnic groups. Contact rates were highest in those reporting occupations in retail, hospitality and food service, and transportation. Those testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies reported a higher number of daily contacts than those who were seronegative. Our findings provide evidence for differences in social behavior among demographic groups, highlighting the profound disparities that have become the hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic.