Stomatal optimization based on xylem hydraulics (SOX) improves land surface model simulation of vegetation responses to climate

Towards accurate monitoring of water content in woody tissue across tropical forests and other biomes

Forest ecosystems face increasing drought exposure due to climate change, necessitating accurate measurements of vegetation water content to assess drought stress and tree mortality risks. Although Frequency Domain Reflectometry offers a viable method for monitoring stem water content by measuring dielectric permittivity, challenges arise from uncertainties in sensor calibration linked to wood properties and species variability, impeding its wider usage. We sampled tropical forest trees and palms in eastern Amazônia to evaluate how sensor output differences are controlled by wood density, temperature and taxonomic identity. Three individuals per species were felled and cut into segments within a diverse dataset comprising five dicotyledonous tree and three monocotyledonous palm species on a wide range of wood densities. Water content was estimated gravimetrically for each segment using a temporally explicit wet-up/dry-down approach and the relationship with the dielectric permittivity was examined. Woody tissue density had no significant impact on the calibration, but species identity and temperature significantly affected sensor readings. The temperature artefact was quantitatively important at large temperature differences, which may have led to significant bias of daily and seasonal water content dynamics in previous studies. We established the first tropical tree and palm calibration equation which performed well for estimating water content. Notably, we demonstrated that the sensitivity remained consistent across species, enabling the creation of a simplified one-slope calibration for accurate, species-independent measurements of relative water content. Our one-slope calibration serves as a general, species-independent standard calibration for assessing relative water content in woody tissue, offering a valuable tool for quantifying drought responses and stress in trees and forest ecosystems.

Dynamic regulation of water potential in Juniperus osteosperma mediates ecosystem carbon fluxes

Some plants exhibit dynamic hydraulic regulation, in which the strictness of hydraulic regulation (i.e. iso/anisohydry) changes in response to environmental conditions. However, the environmental controls over iso/anisohydry and the implications of flexible hydraulic regulation for plant productivity remain unknown. In Juniperus osteosperma, a drought-resistant dryland conifer, we collected a 5-month growing season time series of in situ, high temporal-resolution plant water potential ( Ψ ) and stand gross primary productivity (GPP). We quantified the stringency of hydraulic regulation associated with environmental covariates and evaluated how predawn water potential contributes to empirically predicting carbon uptake. Juniperus osteosperma showed less stringent hydraulic regulation (more anisohydric) after monsoon precipitation pulses, when soil moisture and atmospheric demand were high, and corresponded with GPP pulses. Predawn water potential matched the timing of GPP fluxes and improved estimates of GPP more strongly than soil and/or atmospheric moisture, notably resolving GPP underestimation before vegetation green-up. Flexible hydraulic regulation appears to allow J. osteosperma to prolong soil water extraction and, therefore, the period of high carbon uptake following monsoon precipitation pulses. Water potential and its dynamic regulation may account for why process-based and empirical models commonly underestimate the magnitude and temporal variability of dryland GPP.

Community assembly influences plant trait economic spectra and functional trade-offs at ecosystem scales

Plant functional traits hold the potential to greatly improve the understanding and prediction of climate impacts on ecosystems and carbon cycle feedback to climate change. Traits are commonly used to place species along a global conservative-acquisitive trade-off, yet how and if functional traits and conservative-acquisitive trade-offs scale up to mediate community and ecosystem fluxes is largely unknown. Here, we combine functional trait datasets and multibiome datasets of forest water and carbon fluxes at the species, community, and ecosystem-levels to quantify the scaling of the tradeoff between maximum flux and sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit. We find a strong conservative-acquisitive trade-off at the species scale, which weakens modestly at the community scale and largely disappears at the ecosystem scale. Functional traits, particularly plant water transport (hydraulic) traits, are strongly associated with the key dimensions of the conservative-acquisitive trade-off at community and ecosystem scales, highlighting that trait composition appears to influence community and ecosystem flux dynamics. Our findings provide a foundation for improving carbon cycle models by revealing i) that plant hydraulic traits are most strongly associated with community- and ecosystem scale flux dynamics and ii) community assembly dynamics likely need to be considered explicitly, as they give rise to ecosystem-level flux dynamics that differ substantially from trade-offs identified at the species-level.

The poorly-explored stomatal response to temperature at constant evaporative demand

Changes in leaf temperature are known to drive stomatal responses, because the leaf-to-air water vapour gradient (Δw) increases with temperature if ambient vapour pressure is held constant, and stomata respond to changes in Δw. However, the direct response of stomata to temperature (DRST; the response when Δw is held constant by adjusting ambient humidity) has been examined far less extensively. Though the meagre available data suggest the response is usually positive, results differ widely and defy broad generalisation. As a result, little is known about the DRST. This review discusses the current state of knowledge about the DRST, including numerous hypothesised biophysical mechanisms, potential implications of the response for plant adaptation, and possible impacts of the DRST on plant-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in a changing climate.

Incorporating photosynthetic acclimation improves stomatal optimisation models

Stomatal opening in plant leaves is regulated through a balance of carbon and water exchange under different environmental conditions. Accurate estimation of stomatal regulation is crucial for understanding how plants respond to changing environmental conditions, particularly under climate change. A new generation of optimality-based modelling schemes determines instantaneous stomatal responses from a balance of trade-offs between carbon gains and hydraulic costs, but most such schemes do not account for biochemical acclimation in response to drought. Here, we compare the performance of six instantaneous stomatal optimisation models with and without accounting for photosynthetic acclimation. Using experimental data from 37 plant species, we found that accounting for photosynthetic acclimation improves the prediction of carbon assimilation in a majority of the tested models. Photosynthetic acclimation contributed significantly to the reduction of photosynthesis under drought conditions in all tested models. Drought effects on photosynthesis could not accurately be explained by the hydraulic impairment functions embedded in the stomatal models alone, indicating that photosynthetic acclimation must be considered to improve estimates of carbon assimilation during drought.

Critical thresholds for nonlinear responses of ecosystem water use efficiency to drought

Climate change is expected to lead to greater variability in precipitation and drought in different regions. However, the responses of ecosystem carbon and water cycles (i.e., water use efficiency, WUE) to different levels of drought stress are not fully understood. Here, we examined the relationship between WUE and precipitation anomalies and identified the critical drought threshold (DrCW) above which WUE showed substantial decrease. The results revealed that 85.56 % of the study area had nonlinear WUE responses to drought stress; that is, the WUE decreased sustainably and steeply when the precipitation deficit exceeded the DrCW. DrCW indicates inflection points for changing ecosystem responses from relatively resistant to vulnerable to drought stress, thus providing an instructive early warning for intensifying suppressive impacts on vegetation growth. Additionally, DrCW varies across aridity gradients and among vegetation types. Based on the DrCW at the pixel level, the future eco-drought is projected to increase in >67 % of the study area under both the SSP2&RCP4.5 and SSP5&RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Our study elucidates the response of the ecosystem function to drought and supports the development of accurate ecosystem adaptation policies for future drought stress.

A new empirical framework to quantify the hydraulic effects of soil and atmospheric drivers on plant water status

Metrics to quantify regulation of plant water status at the daily as opposed to the seasonal scale do not presently exist. This gap is significant since plants are hypothesised to regulate their water potential not only with respect to slowly changing soil drought but also with respect to faster changes in air vapour pressure deficit (VPD), a variable whose importance for plant physiology is expected to grow because of higher temperatures in the coming decades. We present a metric, the stringency of water potential regulation, that can be employed at the daily scale and quantifies the effects exerted on plants by the separate and combined effect of soil and atmospheric drought. We test our theory using datasets from two experiments where air temperature and VPD were experimentally manipulated. In contrast to existing metrics based on soil drought that can only be applied at the seasonal scale, our metric successfully detects the impact of atmospheric warming on the regulation of plant water status. We show that the thermodynamic effect of VPD on plant water status can be isolated and compared against that exerted by soil drought and the covariation between VPD and soil drought. Furthermore, in three of three cases, VPD accounted for more than 5 MPa of potential effect on leaf water potential. We explore the significance of our findings in the context of potential future applications of this metric from plant to ecosystem scale.

Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change

Plant hydraulics is crucial for assessing the plants' capacity to extract and transport water from the soil up to their aerial organs. Along with their capacity to exchange water between plant compartments and regulate evaporation, hydraulic properties determine plant water relations, water status and susceptibility to pathogen attacks. Consequently, any variation in the hydraulic characteristics of plants is likely to significantly impact various mechanisms and processes related to plant growth, survival and production, as well as the risk of biotic attacks and forest fire behaviour. However, the integration of hydraulic traits into disciplines such as plant pathology, entomology, fire ecology or agriculture can be significantly improved. This review examines how plant hydraulics can provide new insights into our understanding of these processes, including modelling processes of vegetation dynamics, illuminating numerous perspectives for assessing the consequences of climate change on forest and agronomic systems, and addressing unanswered questions across multiple areas of knowledge.

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of "grassy" ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.

Anatomical traits related to leaf and branch hydraulic functioning on Amazonian savanna plants

Amazonian savannas are isolated patches of open habitats found within the extensive matrix of Amazonian tropical forests. There remains limited evidence on how Amazonian plants from savannas differ in the traits related to drought resistance and water loss control. Previous studies have reported several xeromorphic characteristics of Amazonian savanna plants at the leaf and branch levels that are linked to soil, solar radiation, rainfall and seasonality. How anatomical features relate to plant hydraulic functioning in this ecosystem is less known and instrumental if we want to accurately model transitions in trait states between alternative vegetation in Amazonia. In this context, we combined studies of anatomical and hydraulic traits to understand the structure-function relationships of leaf and wood xylem in plants of Amazonian savannas. We measured 22 leaf, wood and hydraulic traits, including embolism resistance (as P₅₀), Hydraulic Safety Margin (HSM) and isotope-based water use efficiency (WUE), for the seven woody species that account for 75% of the biomass of a typical Amazonian savanna on rocky outcrops in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Few anatomical traits are related to hydraulic traits. Our findings showed wide variation exists among the seven species studied here in resistance to embolism, water use efficiency and structural anatomy, suggesting no unique dominant functional plant strategy to occupy an Amazonian savanna. We found wide variation in resistance to embolism (-1.6 ± 0.1 MPa and -5.0 ± 0.5 MPa) with species that are less efficient in water use (e.g. Kielmeyera rubriflora, Macairea radula, Simarouba versicolor, Parkia cachimboensis and Maprounea guianensis) showing higher stomatal conductance potential, supporting xylem functioning with leaf succulence and/or safer wood anatomical structures and that species that are more efficient in water use (e.g. Norantea guianensis and Alchornea discolor) can exhibit riskier hydraulic strategies. Our results provide a deeper understanding of how branch and leaf structural traits combine to allow for different hydraulic strategies among coexisting plants. In Amazonian savannas, this may mean investing in buffering water loss (e.g. succulence) at leaf level or safer structures (e.g. thicker pit membranes) and architectures (e.g. vessel grouping) in their branch xylem.

Do stomata optimize turgor-driven growth? A new framework for integrating stomata response with whole-plant hydraulics and carbon balance

Every existing optimal stomatal model uses photosynthetic carbon assimilation as a proxy for plant evolutionary fitness. However, assimilation and growth are often decoupled, making assimilation less ideal for representing fitness when optimizing stomatal conductance to water vapor and carbon dioxide. Instead, growth should be considered a closer proxy for fitness. We hypothesize stomata have evolved to maximize turgor-driven growth, instead of assimilation, over entire plants' lifetimes, improving their abilities to compete and reproduce. We develop a stomata model that dynamically maximizes whole-stem growth following principles from turgor-driven growth models. Stomata open to assimilate carbohydrates that supply growth and osmotically generate turgor, while stomata close to prevent losses of turgor and growth due to negative water potentials. In steady state, the growth optimization model captures realistic stomatal, growth, and carbohydrate responses to environmental cues, reconciles conflicting interpretations within existing stomatal optimization theories, and explains patterns of carbohydrate storage and xylem conductance observed during and after drought. Our growth optimization hypothesis introduces a new paradigm for stomatal optimization models, elevates the role of whole-plant carbon use and carbon storage in stomatal functioning, and has the potential to simultaneously predict gross productivity, net productivity, and plant mortality through a single, consistent modeling framework.

Kinetic factors of physiology and the dynamic light environment influence the economic landscape of short-term hydraulic risk

Optimality-based models of stomatal conductance unify biophysical and evolutionary constraints and can improve predictions of land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. Recent models incorporate hydraulic constraints by penalizing excessive stomatal opening in relation to hydraulic damage caused by low water potentials. We used simulation models to test whether penalties based solely on vulnerability curves adequately represent the optimality hypothesis, given that they exclude the effects of kinetic factors on stomatal behavior and integrated carbon balance. To quantify the effects of nonsteady-state phenomena on the landscape of short-term hydraulic risk, we simulated diurnal dynamics of leaf physiology for 10 000 patches of leaf in a canopy and used a ray-tracing model, Helios, to simulate realistic variation in sunfleck dynamics. Our simulations demonstrated that kinetic parameters of leaf physiology and sunfleck properties influence the economic landscape of short-term hydraulic risk, as characterized by the effect of stomatal strategy (gauged by the water potential causing a 50% hydraulic penalty) on both aggregated carbon gain and the aggregated carbon cost of short-term hydraulic risk. Hydraulic penalties in optimization models should be generalized to allow their parameters to account for kinetic factors, in addition to parameters of hydraulic vulnerability.

How drought events during the last century have impacted biomass carbon in Amazonian rainforests

During the last two decades, inventory data show that droughts have reduced biomass carbon sink of the Amazon forest by causing mortality to exceed growth. However, process-based models have struggled to include drought-induced responses of growth and mortality and have not been evaluated against plot data. A process-based model, ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, including forest demography with tree cohorts, plant hydraulic architecture and drought-induced tree mortality, was applied over Amazonia rainforests forced by gridded climate fields and rising CO₂ from 1901 to 2019. The model reproduced the decelerating signal of net carbon sink and drought sensitivity of aboveground biomass (AGB) growth and mortality observed at forest plots across selected Amazon intact forests for 2005 and 2010. We predicted a larger mortality rate and a more negative sensitivity of the net carbon sink during the 2015/16 El Niño compared with the former droughts. 2015/16 was indeed the most severe drought since 1901 regarding both AGB loss and area experiencing a severe carbon loss. We found that even if climate change did increase mortality, elevated CO₂ contributed to balance the biomass mortality, since CO₂ -induced stomatal closure reduces transpiration, thus, offsets increased transpiration from CO₂ -induced higher foliage area.

Towards a unified theory of plant photosynthesis and hydraulics

The global carbon and water cycles are governed by the coupling of CO₂ and water vapour exchanges through the leaves of terrestrial plants, controlled by plant adaptations to balance carbon gains and hydraulic risks. We introduce a trait-based optimality theory that unifies the treatment of stomatal responses and biochemical acclimation of plants to environments changing on multiple timescales. Tested with experimental data from 18 species, our model successfully predicts the simultaneous decline in carbon assimilation rate, stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity during progressive soil drought. It also correctly predicts the dependencies of gas exchange on atmospheric vapour pressure deficit, temperature and CO₂. Model predictions are also consistent with widely observed empirical patterns, such as the distribution of hydraulic strategies. Our unified theory opens new avenues for reliably modelling the interactive effects of drying soil and rising atmospheric CO₂ on global photosynthesis and transpiration.

Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function

There is a pressing need to better understand ecosystem resilience to droughts and heatwaves. Eco-evolutionary optimization approaches have been proposed as means to build this understanding in land surface models and improve their predictive capability, but competing approaches are yet to be tested together. Here, we coupled approaches that optimize canopy gas exchange and leaf nitrogen investment, respectively, extending both approaches to account for hydraulic impairment. We assessed model predictions using observations from a native Eucalyptus woodland that experienced repeated droughts and heatwaves between 2013 and 2020, whilst exposed to an elevated [CO₂ ] treatment. Our combined approaches improved predictions of transpiration and enhanced the simulated magnitude of the CO₂ fertilization effect on gross primary productivity. The competing approaches also worked consistently along axes of change in soil moisture, leaf area, and [CO₂ ]. Despite predictions of a significant percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity due to embolism (PLC) in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (99th percentile PLC > 45%), simulated hydraulic legacy effects were small and short-lived (2 months). Our analysis suggests that leaf shedding and/or suppressed foliage growth formed a strategy to mitigate drought risk. Accounting for foliage responses to water availability has the potential to improve model predictions of ecosystem resilience.

Divergence of hydraulic traits among tropical forest trees across topographic and vertical environment gradients in Borneo

Fine-scale topographic-edaphic gradients are common in tropical forests and drive species spatial turnover and marked changes in forest structure and function. We evaluate how hydraulic traits of tropical tree species relate to vertical and horizontal spatial niche specialization along such a gradient. Along a topographic-edaphic gradient with uniform climate in Borneo, we measured six key hydraulic traits in 156 individuals of differing heights in 13 species of Dipterocarpaceae. We investigated how hydraulic traits relate to habitat, tree height and their interaction on this gradient. Embolism resistance increased in trees on sandy soils but did not vary with tree height. By contrast, water transport capacity increased on sandier soils and with increasing tree height. Habitat and height only interact for hydraulic efficiency, with slope for height changing from positive to negative from the clay-rich to the sandier soil. Habitat type influenced trait-trait relationships for all traits except wood density. Our data reveal that variation in the hydraulic traits of dipterocarps is driven by a combination of topographic-edaphic conditions, tree height and taxonomic identity. Our work indicates that hydraulic traits play a significant role in shaping forest structure across topographic-edaphic and vertical gradients and may contribute to niche specialization among dipterocarp species.

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO₂ and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO₂ (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

The global net land sink is relatively well constrained. However, the responsible drivers and above/below-ground partitioning are highly uncertain. Model issues regarding turnover of individual plant and soil components are responsible.

Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk

Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344-1424 mm yr^-1 ). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017-2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within-species' ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO₂ in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision-making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net-zero emission strategies.

Wood density and hydraulic traits influence species' growth response to drought across biomes

Tree species display a wide variety of water-use strategies, growth rates and capacity to tolerate drought. However, if we want to forecast species capacity to cope with increasing aridity and drought, we need to identify which measurable traits confer resilience to drought across species. Here, we use a global tree ring network (65 species; 1931 site series of ring-width indices-RWI) to evaluate the relationship of long-term growth-drought sensitivity (RWI-SPEI drought index relationship) and short-term growth response to extreme drought episodes (resistance, recovery and resilience indices) with functional traits related to leaf, wood and hydraulic properties. Furthermore, we assess the influence of climate (temperature, precipitation and climatic water deficit) on these trait-growth relationships. We found a close correspondence between the long-term relationship between RWI and SPEI and resistance and recovery of tree growth to severe drought episodes. Species displaying a stronger RWI-SPEI relationship to drought and low resistance and high recovery to extreme drought episodes tended to have a higher wood density (WD) and more negative leaf minimum water potential (Ψmin). Such associations were largely maintained when accounting for direct climate effects. Our results indicate that, at a cross-species level and global scale, wood and hydraulic functional traits explain species' growth responses to drought at short- and long-term scales. These trait-growth response relationships can improve our understanding of the cross-species capacity to withstand climate change and inform models to better predict drought effects on forest ecosystem dynamics.

Unlocking Drought-Induced Tree Mortality: Physiological Mechanisms to Modeling

Drought-related tree mortality has become a major concern worldwide due to its pronounced negative impacts on the functioning and sustainability of forest ecosystems. However, our ability to identify the species that are most vulnerable to drought, and to pinpoint the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality events, is still limited. Model is useful tools to capture the dynamics of vegetation at spatiotemporal scales, yet contemporary land surface models (LSMs) are often incapable of predicting the response of vegetation to environmental perturbations with sufficient accuracy, especially under stressful conditions such as drought. Significant progress has been made regarding the physiological mechanisms underpinning plant drought response in the past decade, and plant hydraulic dysfunction has emerged as a key determinant for tree death due to water shortage. The identification of pivotal physiological events and relevant plant traits may facilitate forecasting tree mortality through a mechanistic approach, with improved precision. In this review, we (1) summarize current understanding of physiological mechanisms leading to tree death, (2) describe the functionality of key hydraulic traits that are involved in the process of hydraulic dysfunction, and (3) outline their roles in improving the representation of hydraulic function in LSMs. We urge potential future research on detailed hydraulic processes under drought, pinpointing corresponding functional traits, as well as understanding traits variation across and within species, for a better representation of drought-induced tree mortality in models.

Integrating plant physiology and community ecology across scales through trait-based models to predict drought mortality

Forests are a critical carbon sink and widespread tree mortality resulting from climate-induced drought stress has the potential to alter forests from a carbon sink to a source, causing a positive feedback on climate change. Process-based vegetation models aim to represent the current understanding of the underlying mechanisms governing plant physiological and ecological responses to climate. Yet model accuracy varies across scales, and regional-scale model predictive skill is frequently poor when compared with observations of drought-driven mortality. I propose a framework that leverages differences in model predictive skill across spatial scales, mismatches between model predictions and observations, and differences in the mechanisms included and absent across models to advance the understanding of the physiological and ecological processes driving observed patterns drought-driven mortality.

Turgor-limited predictions of tree growth, height and metabolic scaling over tree lifespans

Increasing evidence suggests that tree growth is sink-limited by environmental and internal controls rather than by carbon availability. However, the mechanisms underlying sink-limitations are not fully understood and thus not represented in large-scale vegetation models. We develop a simple, analytically solved, mechanistic, turgor-driven growth model (TDGM) and a phloem transport model (PTM) to explore the mechanics of phloem transport and evaluate three hypotheses. First, phloem transport must be explicitly considered to accurately predict turgor distributions and thus growth. Second, turgor-limitations can explain growth-scaling with size (metabolic scaling). Third, turgor can explain realistic growth rates and increments. We show that mechanistic, sink-limited growth schemes based on plant turgor limitations are feasible for large-scale model implementations with minimal computational demands. Our PTM predicted nearly uniform sugar concentrations along the phloem transport path regardless of phloem conductance, stem water potential gradients and the strength of sink-demands contrary to our first hypothesis, suggesting that phloem transport is not limited generally by phloem transport capacity per se but rather by carbon demand for growth and respiration. These results enabled TDGM implementation without explicit coupling to the PTM, further simplifying computation. We test the TDGM by comparing predictions of whole-tree growth rate to well-established observations (site indices) and allometric theory. Our simple TDGM predicts realistic tree heights, growth rates and metabolic scaling over decadal to centurial timescales, suggesting that tree growth is generally sink and turgor limited. Like observed trees, our TDGM captures tree-size- and resource-based deviations from the classical ¾ power-law metabolic scaling for which turgor is responsible.

Forest system hydraulic conductance: partitioning tree and soil components

Soil-leaf hydraulic conductance determines canopy-atmosphere coupling in vegetation models, but it is typically derived from ex-situ measurements of stem segments and soil samples. Using a novel approach, we derive robust in-situ estimates for whole-tree conductance (k_tree ), 'functional' soil conductance (k_soil ), and 'system' conductance (k_system , water table to canopy), at two climatically different tropical rainforest sites. Hydraulic 'functional rooting depth', determined for each tree using profiles of soil water potential (Ψ_soil ) and sap flux data, enabled a robust determination of k_tree and k_soil . k_tree was compared across species, size classes, seasons, height above nearest drainage (HAND), two field sites, and to alternative representations of k_tree ; k_soil was analysed with respect to variations in site, season and HAND. k_tree was lower and changed seasonally at the site with higher vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and rainfall; k_tree differed little across species but scaled with tree circumference; r_soil (1/k_soil ) ranged from 0 in the wet season to 10× less than r_tree (1/k_tree ) in the dry season. VPD and not rainfall may influence plot-level k; leaf water potentials and sap flux can be used to determine k_tree , k_soil and k_system ; Ψ_soil profiles can provide mechanistic insights into ecosystem-level water fluxes.

Stomatal closure during water deficit is controlled by below-ground hydraulics

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Stomatal closure allows plants to promptly respond to water shortage. Although the coordination between stomatal regulation, leaf and xylem hydraulics has been extensively investigated, the impact of below-ground hydraulics on stomatal regulation remains unknown.

METHODS

We used a novel root pressure chamber to measure, during soil drying, the relation between transpiration rate (E) and leaf xylem water pressure (ψleaf-x) in tomato shoots grafted onto two contrasting rootstocks, a long and a short one. In parallel, we also measured the E(ψleaf-x) relation without pressurization. A soil-plant hydraulic model was used to reproduce the measurements. We hypothesize that (1) stomata close when the E(ψleaf-x) relation becomes non-linear and (2) non-linearity occurs at higher soil water contents and lower transpiration rates in short-rooted plants.

KEY RESULTS

The E(ψleaf-x) relation was linear in wet conditions and became non-linear as the soil dried. Changing below-ground traits (i.e. root system) significantly affected the E(ψleaf-x) relation during soil drying. Plants with shorter root systems required larger gradients in soil water pressure to sustain the same transpiration rate and exhibited an earlier non-linearity and stomatal closure.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that, during soil drying, stomatal regulation is controlled by below-ground hydraulics in a predictable way. The model suggests that the loss of hydraulic conductivity occurred in soil. These results prove that stomatal regulation is intimately tied to root and soil hydraulic conductances.

Coordination of plant hydraulic and photosynthetic traits: confronting optimality theory with field measurements

Close coupling between water loss and carbon dioxide uptake requires coordination of plant hydraulics and photosynthesis. However, there is still limited information on the quantitative relationships between hydraulic and photosynthetic traits. We propose a basis for these relationships based on optimality theory, and test its predictions by analysis of measurements on 107 species from 11 sites, distributed along a nearly 3000-m elevation gradient. Hydraulic and leaf economic traits were less plastic, and more closely associated with phylogeny, than photosynthetic traits. The two sets of traits were linked by the sapwood to leaf area ratio (Huber value, v_H ). The observed coordination between v_H and sapwood hydraulic conductivity (K_S ) and photosynthetic capacity (V_cmax ) conformed to the proposed quantitative theory. Substantial hydraulic diversity was related to the trade-off between K_S and v_H . Leaf drought tolerance (inferred from turgor loss point, -Ψ_tlp ) increased with wood density, but the trade-off between hydraulic efficiency (K_S ) and -Ψ_tlp was weak. Plant trait effects on v_H were dominated by variation in K_S , while effects of environment were dominated by variation in temperature. This research unifies hydraulics, photosynthesis and the leaf economics spectrum in a common theoretical framework, and suggests a route towards the integration of photosynthesis and hydraulics in land-surface models.

Linking xylem network failure with leaf tissue death

Global warming is expected to dramatically accelerate forest mortality as temperature and drought intensity increase. Predicting the magnitude of this impact urgently requires an understanding of the process connecting atmospheric drying to plant tissue damage. Recent episodes of forest mortality worldwide have been widely attributed to dry conditions causing acute damage to plant vascular systems. Under this scenario vascular embolisms produced by water stress are thought to cause plant death, yet this hypothetical trajectory has never been empirically demonstrated. Here we provide foundational evidence connecting failure in the vascular network of leaves with tissue damage caused during water stress. We observe a catastrophic sequence initiated by water column breakage under tension in leaf veins which severs local leaf tissue water supply, immediately causing acute cellular dehydration and irreversible damage. By highlighting the primacy of vascular network failure in the death of leaves exposed to drought or evaporative stress our results provide a strong mechanistic foundation upon which models of plant damage in response to dehydration can be confidently structured.

Leaf Shedding and Non-Stomatal Limitations of Photosynthesis Mitigate Hydraulic Conductance Losses in Scots Pine Saplings During Severe Drought Stress

During drought, trees reduce water loss and hydraulic failure by closing their stomata, which also limits photosynthesis. Under severe drought stress, other acclimation mechanisms are trigged to further reduce transpiration to prevent irreversible conductance loss. Here, we investigate two of them: the reversible impacts on the photosynthetic apparatus, lumped as non-stomatal limitations (NSL) of photosynthesis, and the irreversible effect of premature leaf shedding. We integrate NSL and leaf shedding with a state-of-the-art tree hydraulic simulation model (SOX+) and parameterize them with example field measurements to demonstrate the stress-mitigating impact of these processes. We measured xylem vulnerability, transpiration, and leaf litter fall dynamics in Pinus sylvestris (L.) saplings grown for 54 days under severe dry-down. The observations showed that, once transpiration stopped, the rate of leaf shedding strongly increased until about 30% of leaf area was lost on average. We trained the SOX+ model with the observations and simulated changes in root-to-canopy conductance with and without including NSL and leaf shedding. Accounting for NSL improved model representation of transpiration, while model projections about root-to-canopy conductance loss were reduced by an overall 6%. Together, NSL and observed leaf shedding reduced projected losses in conductance by about 13%. In summary, the results highlight the importance of other than purely stomatal conductance-driven adjustments of drought resistance in Scots pine. Accounting for acclimation responses to drought, such as morphological (leaf shedding) and physiological (NSL) adjustments, has the potential to improve tree hydraulic simulation models, particularly when applied in predicting drought-induced tree mortality.

To what extent can rising [CO2 ] ameliorate plant drought stress?

Plant responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂ ) have been hypothesized as a key mechanism that may ameliorate the impact of future drought. Yet, despite decades of experiments, the question of whether eCO₂ reduces plant water use, yielding 'water savings' that can be used to maintain plant function during periods of water stress, remains unresolved. In this Viewpoint, we identify the experimental challenges and limitations to our understanding of plant responses to drought under eCO₂ . In particular, we argue that future studies need to move beyond exploring whether eCO₂ played 'a role' or 'no role' in responses to drought, but instead more carefully consider the timescales and conditions that would induce an influence. We also argue that considering emergent differences in soil water content may be an insufficient means of assessing the impact of eCO₂ . We identify eCO₂ impact during severe drought (e.g. to the point of mortality), interactions with future changes in vapour pressure deficit and uncertainty about changes in leaf area as key gaps in our current understanding. New insights into CO₂  × drought interactions are essential to better constrain model theory that governs future climate model projections of land-atmosphere interactions during periods of water stress.

Eco-evolutionary optimality as a means to improve vegetation and land-surface models

Global vegetation and land-surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. However, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter-sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf-level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.

Climate and functional traits jointly mediate tree water-use strategies

Tree water use is central to plant function and ecosystem fluxes. However, it is still unknown how organ-level water-relations traits are coordinated to determine whole-tree water-use strategies in response to drought, and whether this coordination depends on climate. Here we used a global sap flow database (SAPFLUXNET) to study the response of water use, in terms of whole-tree canopy conductance (G), to vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and to soil water content (SWC) for 142 tree species. We investigated the individual and coordinated effect of six water-relations traits (vulnerability to embolism, Huber value, hydraulic conductivity, turgor-loss point, rooting depth and leaf size) on water-use parameters, also accounting for the effect of tree height and climate (mean annual precipitation, MAP). Reference G and its sensitivity to VPD were tightly coordinated with water-relations traits rather than with MAP. Species with efficient xylem transport had higher canopy conductance but also higher sensitivity to VPD. Moreover, we found that angiosperms had higher reference G and higher sensitivity to VPD than did gymnosperms. Our results highlight the need to consider trait integration and reveal the complications and challenges of defining a single, whole-plant resource use spectrum ranging from 'acquisitive' to 'conservative'.

Parsimony vs predictive and functional performance of three stomatal optimization principles in a big-leaf framework

Stomatal optimization models can improve estimates of water and carbon fluxes with relatively low complexity, yet there is no consensus on which formulations are most appropriate for ecosystem-scale applications. We implemented three existing analytical equations for stomatal conductance, based on different water penalty functions, in a big-leaf comparison framework, and determined which optimization principles were most consistent with flux tower observations from different biomes. We used information theory to dissect controls of soil water supply and atmospheric demand on evapotranspiration in wet to dry conditions and to quantify missing or inadequate information in model variants. We ranked stomatal optimization principles based on parameter uncertainty, parsimony, predictive accuracy, and functional accuracy of the interactions between soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and evapotranspiration. Performance was high for all model variants. Water penalty functions with explicit representation of plant hydraulics did not substantially improve predictive or functional accuracy of ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration estimates, and parameterizations were more uncertain, despite having physiological underpinnings at the plant level. Stomatal optimization based on water use efficiency thus provided more information about ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration compared to those based on xylem vulnerability and proved more useful in improving ecosystem-scale models with less complexity.

Coupled whole-tree optimality and xylem hydraulics explain dynamic biomass partitioning

Trees partition biomass in response to resource limitation and physiological activity. It is presumed that these strategies evolved to optimize some measure of fitness. If the optimization criterion can be specified, then allometry can be modeled from first principles without prescribed parameterization. We present the Tree Hydraulics and Optimal Resource Partitioning (THORP) model, which optimizes allometry by estimating allocation fractions to organs as proportional to their ratio of marginal gain to marginal cost, where gain is net canopy photosynthesis rate, and costs are senescence rates. Root total biomass and profile shape are predicted simultaneously by a unified optimization. Optimal partitioning is solved by a numerically efficient analytical solution. THORP's predictions agree with reported tree biomass partitioning in response to size, water limitations, elevated CO₂ and pruning. Roots were sensitive to soil moisture profiles and grew down to the groundwater table when present. Groundwater buffered against water stress regardless of meteorology, stabilizing allometry and root profiles as deep as c. 30 m. Much of plant allometry can be explained by hydraulic considerations. However, nutrient limitations cannot be fully ignored. Rooting mass and profiles were synchronized with hydrological conditions and groundwater even at considerable depths, illustrating that the below ground shapes whole-tree allometry.

Optimal carbon partitioning helps reconcile the apparent divergence between optimal and observed canopy profiles of photosynthetic capacity

Photosynthetic capacity per unit irradiance is greater, and the marginal carbon revenue of water (∂A/∂E) is smaller, in shaded leaves than sunlit leaves, apparently contradicting optimization theory. I tested the hypothesis that these patterns arise from optimal carbon partitioning subject to biophysical constraints on leaf water potential. In a whole plant model with two canopy modules, I adjusted carbon partitioning, nitrogen partitioning and leaf water potential to maximize carbon profit or canopy photosynthesis, and recorded how gas exchange parameters compared between shaded and sunlit modules in the optimum. The model predicted that photosynthetic capacity per unit irradiance should be larger, and ∂A/∂E smaller, in shaded modules compared to sunlit modules. This was attributable partly to radiation-driven differences in evaporative demand, and partly to differences in hydraulic conductance arising from the need to balance marginal returns on stem carbon investment between modules. The model verified, however, that invariance in the marginal carbon revenue of N (∂A/∂N) is in fact optimal. The Cowan-Farquhar optimality solution (invariance of ∂A/∂E) does not apply to spatial variation within a canopy. The resulting variation in carbon-water economy explains differences in capacity per unit irradiance, reconciling optimization theory with observations.

Understanding and predicting forest mortality in the western United States using long-term forest inventory data and modeled hydraulic damage

Global warming is expected to exacerbate the duration and intensity of droughts in the western United States, which may lead to increased tree mortality. A prevailing proximal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality is hydraulic damage, but predicting tree mortality from hydraulic theory and climate data still remains a major scientific challenge. We used forest inventory data and a plant hydraulic model (HM) to address three questions: can we capture regional patterns of drought-induced tree mortality with HM-predicted damage thresholds; do HM metrics improve predictions of mortality across broad spatial areas; and what are the dominant controls of forest mortality when considering stand characteristics, climate metrics, and simulated hydraulic stress? We found that the amount of variance explained by models predicting mortality was limited (R² median = 0.10, R² range: 0.00-0.52). HM outputs, including hydraulic damage and carbon assimilation diagnostics, moderately improve mortality prediction across the western US compared with models using stand and climate predictors alone. Among factors considered, metrics of stand density and tree size tended to be some of the most critical factors explaining mortality, probably highlighting the important roles of structural overshoot, stand development, and biotic agent host selection and outbreaks in mortality patterns.

Assessing model performance via the most limiting environmental driver in two differently stressed pine stands

Climate change will impact forest productivity worldwide. Forecasting the magnitude of such impact, with multiple environmental stressors changing simultaneously, is only possible with the help of process-based models. In order to assess their performance, such models require careful evaluation against measurements. However, direct comparison of model outputs against observational data is often not reliable, as models may provide the right answers due to the wrong reasons. This would severely hinder forecasting abilities under unprecedented climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology for model assessment, which supplements the traditional output-to-observation model validation. It evaluates model performance through its ability to reproduce observed seasonal changes of the most limiting environmental driver (MLED) for a given process, here daily gross primary productivity (GPP). We analyzed seasonal changes of the MLED for GPP in two contrasting pine forests, the Mediterranean Pinus halepensis Mill. Yatir (Israel) and the boreal Pinus sylvestris L. Hyytiälä (Finland) from three years of eddy-covariance flux data. Then, we simulated the same period with a state-of-the-art process-based simulation model (LandscapeDNDC). Finally, we assessed if the model was able to reproduce both GPP observations and MLED seasonality. We found that the model reproduced the seasonality of GPP in both stands, but it was slightly overestimated without site-specific fine-tuning. Interestingly, although LandscapeDNDC properly captured the main MLED in Hyytiälä (temperature) and in Yatir (soil water availability), it failed to reproduce high-temperature and high-vapor pressure limitations of GPP in Yatir during spring and summer. We deduced that the most likely reason for this divergence is an incomplete description of stomatal behavior. In summary, this study validates the MLED approach as a model evaluation tool, and opens up new possibilities for model improvement.

Drought by CO2 interactions in trees: a test of the water savings mechanism

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eC_a ) may benefit plants during drought by reducing stomatal conductance (g_s ) but any 'water savings effect' could be neutralized by concurrent stimulation of leaf area. We investigated whether eC_a enhanced water savings, thereby ameliorating the impact of drought on carbon and water relations in trees. We report leaf-level gas exchange and whole-plant and soil water relations during a short-term dry-down in two Eucalyptus species with contrasting drought tolerance. Plants had previously been established for 9 to 11 months in steady-state conditions of ambient atmospheric CO₂ (aC_a ) and eC_a , with half of each treatment group exposed to sustained drought for 5 to 7 months. The lower stomatal conductance under eC_a did not lead to soil moisture savings during the dry-down due to the counteractive effect of increased whole-plant leaf area. Nonetheless, eC_a -grown plants maintained higher photosynthetic rates and leaf water potentials, making them less stressed during the dry-down, despite being larger. These effects were more pronounced in the xeric species than the mesic species, and in previously water-stressed plants. Our findings indicate that eC_a may enhance plant performance during drought despite a lack of soil water savings, especially in species with more conservative growth and water-use strategies.

Linking plant hydraulics and the fast-slow continuum to understand resilience to drought in tropical ecosystems

Tropical ecosystems have the highest levels of biodiversity, cycle more water and absorb more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem on Earth. Consequently, these ecosystems are extremely important components of Earth's climatic system and biogeochemical cycles. Plant hydraulics is an essential discipline to understand and predict the dynamics of tropical vegetation in scenarios of changing water availability. Using published plant hydraulic data we show that the trade-off between drought avoidance (expressed as deep-rooting, deciduousness and capacitance) and hydraulic safety (P50 - the water potential when plants lose 50% of their maximum hydraulic conductivity) is a major axis of physiological variation across tropical ecosystems. We also propose a novel and independent axis of hydraulic trait variation linking vulnerability to hydraulic failure (expressed as the hydraulic safety margin (HSM)) and growth, where inherent fast-growing plants have lower HSM compared to slow-growing plants. We surmise that soil nutrients are fundamental drivers of tropical community assembly determining the distribution and abundance of the slow-safe/fast-risky strategies. We conclude showing that including either the growth-HSM or the resistance-avoidance trade-off in models can make simulated tropical rainforest communities substantially more vulnerable to drought than similar communities without the trade-off. These results suggest that vegetation models need to represent hydraulic trade-off axes to accurately project the functioning and distribution of tropical ecosystems.

Impacts of soil water stress on the acclimated stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: Insights from stable carbon isotope data

Atmospheric aridity and drought both influence physiological function in plant leaves, but their relative contributions to changes in the ratio of leaf internal to ambient partial pressure of CO₂ (χ) - an index of adjustments in both stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate to environmental conditions - are difficult to disentangle. Many stomatal models predicting χ include the influence of only one of these drivers. In particular, the least-cost optimality hypothesis considers the effect of atmospheric demand for water on χ but does not predict how soils with reduced water further influence χ, potentially leading to an overestimation of χ under dry conditions. Here, we use a large network of stable carbon isotope measurements in C₃ woody plants to examine the acclimated response of χ to soil water stress. We estimate the ratio of cost factors for carboxylation and transpiration (β) expected from the theory to explain the variance in the data, and investigate the responses of β (and thus χ) to soil water content and suction across seed plant groups, leaf phenological types and regions. Overall, β decreases linearly with soil drying, implying that the cost of water transport along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum increases as water available in the soil decreases. However, despite contrasting hydraulic strategies, the stomatal responses of angiosperms and gymnosperms to soil water tend to converge, consistent with the optimality theory. The prediction of β as a simple, empirical function of soil water significantly improves χ predictions by up to 6.3 ± 2.3% (mean ± SD of adjusted-R² ) over 1980-2018 and results in a reduction of around 2% of mean χ values across the globe. Our results highlight the importance of soil water status on stomatal functions and plant water-use efficiency, and suggest the implementation of trait-based hydraulic functions into the model to account for soil water stress.

Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects

Global warming poses great challenges for forest managers regarding adaptation strategies and species choices. More frequent drought events and heat spells are expected to reduce growth and increase mortality. Extended growing seasons, warming and elevated CO2 (eCO2) can also positively affect forest productivity. We studied the growth, productivity and mortality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Black Forest (Germany) under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) using the detailed biogeochemical forest growth model GOTILWA+. Averaged over the entire simulation period, both species showed productivity losses in RCP2.6 (16–20%) and in RCP4.5 (6%), but productivity gains in RCP8.5 (11–17%). However, all three scenarios had a tipping point (between 2035–2060) when initial gains in net primary productivity (NPP) (6–29%) eventually turned into losses (1–26%). With eCO2 switched off, the losses in NPP were 26–51% in RCP2.6, 36–45% in RCP4.5 and 33–71% in RCP8.5. Improved water-use efficiency dampened drought effects on NPP between 4 and 5%. Tree mortality increased, but without notably affecting forest productivity. Concluding, cultivation of beech and fir may still be possible in the study region, although severe productivity losses can be expected in the coming decades, which will strongly depend on the dampening CO2 fertilization effect.

Identifying areas at risk of drought-induced tree mortality across South-Eastern Australia

South-East Australia has recently been subjected to two of the worst droughts in the historical record (Millennium Drought, 2000-2009 and Big Dry, 2017-2019). Unfortunately, a lack of forest monitoring has made it difficult to determine whether widespread tree mortality has resulted from these droughts. Anecdotal observations suggest the Big Dry may have led to more significant tree mortality than the Millennium drought. Critically, to be able to robustly project future expected climate change effects on Australian vegetation, we need to assess the vulnerability of Australian trees to drought. Here we implemented a model of plant hydraulics into the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model. We parameterized the drought response behaviour of five broad vegetation types, based on a common garden dry-down experiment with species originating across a rainfall gradient (188-1,125 mm/year) across South-East Australia. The new hydraulics model significantly improved (~35%-45% reduction in root mean square error) CABLE's previous predictions of latent heat fluxes during periods of water stress at two eddy covariance sites in Australia. Landscape-scale predictions of the greatest percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) of about 40%-60%, were broadly consistent with satellite estimates of regions of the greatest change in both droughts. In neither drought did CABLE predict that trees would have reached critical PLC in widespread areas (i.e. it projected a low mortality risk), although the model highlighted critical levels near the desert regions of South-East Australia where few trees live. Overall, our experimentally constrained model results imply significant resilience to drought conferred by hydraulic function, but also highlight critical data and scientific gaps. Our approach presents a promising avenue to integrate experimental data and make regional-scale predictions of potential drought-induced hydraulic failure.