Antibody landscapes after influenza virus infection or vaccination

Antigenic cartography using variant-specific hamster sera reveals substantial antigenic variation among Omicron subvariants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has developed substantial antigenic variability. As the majority of the population now has pre-existing immunity due to infection or vaccination, the use of experimentally generated animal immune sera can be valuable for measuring antigenic differences between virus variants. Here, we immunized Syrian hamsters by two successive infections with one of nine SARS-CoV-2 variants. Their sera were titrated against 16 SARS-CoV-2 variants, and the resulting titers were visualized using antigenic cartography. The antigenic map shows a condensed cluster containing all pre-Omicron variants (D614G, Alpha, Delta, Beta, Mu, and an engineered B.1+E484K variant) and considerably more diversity among a selected panel of Omicron subvariants (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, the BA.5 descendants BF.7 and BQ.1.18, the BA.2.75 descendant BN.1.3.1, the BA.2-derived recombinants XBB.2 and EG.5.1, and the BA.2.86 descendant JN.1). Some Omicron subvariants were as antigenically distinct from each other as the wildtype is from the Omicron BA.1 variant. Compared to titers measured in human sera, titers in hamster sera are of higher magnitude, show less fold change, and result in a more compact antigenic map topology. The results highlight the potential of sera from hamsters for the continued antigenic characterization of SARS-CoV-2.

Evaluation of a novel intramuscular prime/intranasal boost vaccination strategy against influenza in the pig model

Live-attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIV) offer advantages over the commonly used inactivated split influenza vaccines. However, finding the optimal balance between sufficient attenuation and immunogenicity has remained a challenge. We recently developed an alternative LAIV based on the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus with a truncated NS1 protein and lacking PA-X protein expression (NS1(1-126)-ΔPAX). This virus showed a blunted replication and elicited a strong innate immune response. In the present study, we evaluated the efficacy of this vaccine candidate in the porcine animal model as a pertinent in vivo system. Immunization of pigs via the nasal route with the novel NS1(1-126)-ΔPAX LAIV did not cause disease and elicited a strong mucosal immune response that completely blocked replication of the homologous challenge virus in the respiratory tract. However, we observed prolonged shedding of our vaccine candidate from the upper respiratory tract. To improve LAIV safety, we developed a novel prime/boost vaccination strategy combining primary intramuscular immunization with a haemagglutinin-encoding propagation-defective vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) replicon, followed by a secondary immunization with the NS1(1-126)-ΔPAX LAIV via the nasal route. This two-step immunization procedure significantly reduced LAIV shedding, increased the production of specific serum IgG, neutralizing antibodies, and Th1 memory cells, and resulted in sterilizing immunity against homologous virus challenge. In conclusion, our novel intramuscular prime/intranasal boost regimen interferes with virus shedding and transmission, a feature that will help combat influenza epidemics and pandemics.

Repeated Omicron infection dampens immune imprinting from previous vaccination and induces broad neutralizing antibodies against Omicron sub-variants

OBJECTIVE

Similar with influenza virus, antigenic drift is highly relevant to SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and immune imprinting has been found to limit the performance of updated vaccines based on the emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to investigate whether repeated exposure to Omicron variant could reduce the immune imprinting from previous vaccination.

METHODS

A total of 194 participants with different status of vaccination (unvaccinated, regular vaccination and booster vaccination) confirmed for first infection and re-infection with BA.5, BF.7 and XBB variants were enrolled, and the neutralizing profiles against wild type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 and Omicron sub-variants were analyzed.

RESULTS

Neutralizing potency against the corresponding infected variant is significantly hampered along with the doses of vaccination during first infection. However, for the participants with first infection of BA.5/BF.7 variants and re-infection of XBB variant, immune imprinting was obviously alleviated, indicated as significantly increased ratio of the corresponding infected variant/WT ID50 titers and higher percentage of samples with high neutralizing activities (ID50 > 500) against BA.5, BF.7 and XBB variants. Moreover, repeated Omicron infection could induce strong neutralizing potency with broad neutralizing profiles against a series of other Omicron sub-variants, both in the vaccine naive and vaccine experienced individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that repeated Omicron infection dampens immune imprinting from vaccination with WT SARS-CoV-2 and induces broad neutralizing profiles against Omicron sub-variants.

Immune imprinting in early life shapes cross-reactivity to influenza B virus haemagglutinin

Influenza exposures early in life are believed to shape future susceptibility to influenza infections by imprinting immunological biases that affect cross-reactivity to future influenza viruses. However, direct serological evidence linked to susceptibility is limited. Here we analysed haemagglutination-inhibition titres in 1,451 cross-sectional samples collected between 1992 and 2020, from individuals born between 1917 and 2008, against influenza B virus (IBV) isolates from 1940 to 2021. We included testing of 'future' isolates that circulated after sample collection. We show that immunological biases are conferred by early life IBV infection and result in lineage-specific cross-reactivity of a birth cohort towards future IBV isolates. This translates into differential estimates of susceptibility between birth cohorts towards the B/Yamagata and B/Victoria lineages, predicting lineage-specific birth-cohort distributions of observed medically attended IBV infections. Our data suggest that immunological measurements of imprinting could be important in modelling and predicting virus epidemiology.

Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin

Human influenza virus evolves to escape neutralization by polyclonal antibodies. However, we have a limited understanding of how the antigenic effects of viral mutations vary across the human population and how this heterogeneity affects virus evolution. Here, we use deep mutational scanning to map how mutations to the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of two H3N2 strains, A/Hong Kong/45/2019 and A/Perth/16/2009, affect neutralization by serum from individuals of a variety of ages. The effects of HA mutations on serum neutralization differ across age groups in ways that can be partially rationalized in terms of exposure histories. Mutations that were fixed in influenza variants after 2020 cause greater escape from sera from younger individuals compared with adults. Overall, these results demonstrate that influenza faces distinct antigenic selection regimes from different age groups and suggest approaches to understand how this heterogeneous selection shapes viral evolution.

Measures of population immunity can predict the dominant clade of influenza A (H3N2) in the 2017-2018 season and reveal age-associated differences in susceptibility and antibody-binding specificity

Background

For antigenically variable pathogens such as influenza, strain fitness is partly determined by the relative availability of hosts susceptible to infection with that strain compared to others. Antibodies to the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) confer substantial protection against influenza infection. We asked if a cross-sectionalantibody-derived estimate of population susceptibility to different clades of influenza A (H3N2) could predict the success of clades in the following season.

Methods

We collected sera from 483 healthy individuals aged 1 to 90 years in the summer of 2017 and analyzed neutralizing responses to the HA and NA of representative strains using Focus Reduction Neutralization Tests (FNRT) and Enzyme-Linked Lectin Assays (ELLA). We estimated relative population-average and age-specific susceptibilities to circulating viral clades and compared those estimates to changes in clade frequencies in the following 2017-18 season.

Results

The clade to which neutralizing antibody titers were lowest, indicating greater population susceptibility, dominated the next season. Titers to different HA and NA clades varied dramatically between individuals but showed significant associations with age, suggesting dependence on correlated past exposures.

Conclusions

This study indicates how representative measures of population immunity might improve evolutionary forecasts and inform selective pressures on influenza.

Longitudinal assessment of human antibody binding to hemagglutinin elicited by split-inactivated influenza vaccination over six consecutive seasons

Participants between the ages of 10-86 years old were vaccinated with split-inactivated influenza vaccine (Fluzone®) in six consecutive influenza seasons from 2016-2017 to 2021-2022. Vaccine effectiveness varies from season to season as a result of both host immune responses as well as evolutionary changes in the influenza virus surface glycoproteins that provide challenges to vaccine manufacturers to produce more effective annual vaccines. Next generation influenza vaccines are in development and may provide protective immune responses against a broader number of influenza viruses and reduce the need for annual vaccination. An improved understanding how current influenza vaccines are influenced by human host immune responses in people of different ages and co-morbidities is necessary for designing the next-generation of 'universal' or broadly-protective influenza vaccines. Overall, pre-existing immune responses to previous influenza virus exposures, either by past infections or vaccinations, is a critical factor influencing host responses to seasonal influenza vaccination. Participants vaccinated in consecutive seasons had reduced serum hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) activity against strains included in the vaccine compared to participants that had not been vaccinated in the preceding 1-2 years prior to entering this study. The magnitude and breadth of these antibody responses were also modulated by the age of the participant. Elderly participants over 65 years of age, in general, had lower pre-existing HAI titers each season prior to vaccination with lower post-vaccination titers compared to children or young adults under the age of 35. The administration of higher doses (HD) of the split-inactivated vaccine enhanced the antibody titers in the elderly. This report showcases 6 consecutive years of antibody HAI activity in human subjects receiving seasonal split-inactivated influenza vaccine.

A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin

Many pathogens evolve to escape immunity, yet it remains difficult to predict whether immune pressure will lead to diversification, serial replacement of one variant by another, or more complex patterns. Pathogen strain dynamics are mediated by cross-protective immunity, whereby exposure to one strain partially protects against infection by antigenically diverged strains. There is growing evidence that this protection is influenced by early exposures, a phenomenon referred to as original antigenic sin (OAS) or imprinting. In this paper, we derive constraints on the emergence of the pattern of successive strain replacements demonstrated by influenza, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, and other pathogens. We find that OAS implies that the limited diversity found with successive strain replacement can only be maintained if [Formula: see text] is less than a threshold set by the characteristic antigenic distances for cross-protection and for the creation of new immune memory. This bound implies a "speed limit" on the evolution of new strains and a minimum variance of the distribution of infecting strains in antigenic space at any time. To carry out this analysis, we develop a theoretical model of pathogen evolution in antigenic space that implements OAS by decoupling the antigenic distances required for protection from infection and strain-specific memory creation. Our results demonstrate that OAS can play an integral role in the emergence of strain structure from host immune dynamics, preventing highly transmissible pathogens from maintaining serial strain replacement without diversification.

Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. However, our understanding of how RBD's biophysical properties contribute to SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological fitness remains largely incomplete. Through a comprehensive approach, comprising large-scale sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the identification of a fitness function based on binding thermodynamics, we unravel the relationship between the biophysical properties of RBD variants and their contribution to viral fitness. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by dissociation constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto an epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations, including explaining the later reversal of Q493R. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low-frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app .

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.

Antigenic Cartography of SARS-CoV-2

Antigenic cartography is a tool for interpreting and visualizing antigenic differences between virus variants based on virus neutralization data. This approach has been successfully used in the selection of influenza vaccine seed strains. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants escaping vaccine-induced antibody response, adjusting COVID-19 vaccines has become essential. This review provides information on the antigenic differences between SARS-CoV-2 variants revealed by antigenic cartography and explores a potential of antigenic cartography-based methods (e.g., building antibody landscapes and neutralization breadth gain plots) for the quantitative assessment of the breadth of the antibody response. Understanding the antigenic differences of SARS-CoV-2 and the possibilities of the formed humoral immunity aids in the prompt modification of preventative vaccines against COVID-19.

Seroprevalence of Protective Antibodies Against Influenza and the Reduction of the Influenza Incidence Rate: An Annual Repeated Cross-Sectional Study From 2014 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Seroepidemiological studies provide estimates of population-level immunity, prevalence/incidence of infections, and evaluation of vaccination programs. We assessed the seroprevalence of protective antibodies against influenza and evaluated the correlation of seroprevalence with the cumulative annual influenza incidence rate.

METHODS

We conducted an annual repeated cross-sectional seroepidemiological survey, during June-August, from 2014 to 2019, in Portugal. A total of 4326 sera from all age groups, sex, and regions was tested by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Seroprevalence and geometric mean titers (GMT) of protective antibodies against influenza were assessed by age group, sex, and vaccine status (65+ years old). The association between summer annual seroprevalence and the difference of influenza incidence rates between one season and the previous one was measured by Pearson correlation coefficient (r).

RESULTS

Significant differences in seroprevalence of protective antibodies against influenza were observed in the population. Higher seroprevalence and GMT for A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) were observed in children (5-14); influenza B seroprevalence in adults 65+ was 1.6-4.4 times than in children (0-4). Vaccinated participants (65+) showed significant higher seroprevalence/GMT for influenza. A strong negative and significant correlation was found between seroprevalence and ILI incidence rate for A(H1N1)pdm09 in children between 5 and 14 (r = -0.84; 95% CI, -0.98 to -0.07); a weak negative correlation was observed for A(H3N2) and B/Yamagata (r ≤ -0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides new insight into the anti-influenza antibodies seroprevalence measured in summer on the ILI incidence rate in the next season and the need for adjusted preventive health care measures to prevent influenza infection and transmission.

Antigenic distance between primary and secondary dengue infections correlates with disease risk

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection even in previously exposed individuals. In addition, for some pathogens, such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains unclear whether the antigenic distances between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalizations across years. Here, we develop a framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterization of viruses with details on hospitalized cases from 21 years of dengue surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand, to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We found that the risk of hospitalization depended on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximized at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest that immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk and provide a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin

Many pathogens evolve to escape immunity, yet it remains difficult to predict whether immune pressure will lead to diversification, serial replacement of one variant by another, or more complex patterns. Pathogen strain dynamics are mediated by cross-protective immunity, whereby exposure to one strain partially protects against infection by antigenically diverged strains. There is growing evidence that this protection is influenced by early exposures, a phenomenon referred to as original antigenic sin (OAS) or imprinting. In this paper, we derive new constraints on the emergence of the pattern of successive strain replacements demonstrated by influenza, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, and other pathogens. We find that OAS implies that the limited diversity found with successive strain replacement can only be maintained if R 0 is less than a threshold set by the characteristic antigenic distances for cross-protection and for the creation of new immune memory. This bound implies a "speed limit" on the evolution of new strains and a minimum variance of the distribution of infecting strains in antigenic space at any time. To carry out this analysis, we develop a theoretical model of pathogen evolution in antigenic space that implements OAS by decoupling the antigenic distances required for protection from infection and strain-specific memory creation. Our results demonstrate that OAS can play an integral role in the emergence of strain structure from host immune dynamics, preventing highly transmissible pathogens from maintaining serial strain replacement without diversification.

B-cell characteristics define HCV reinfection outcome

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In individuals highly exposed to HCV, reinfection is common, suggesting that natural development of sterilising immunity is difficult. In those that are reinfected, some will develop a persistent infection, while a small proportion repeatedly clear the virus, suggesting natural protection is possible. The aim of this study was to characterise immune responses associated with rapid natural clearance of HCV reinfection.

METHODS

Broad neutralising antibodies (nAbs) and Envelope 2 (E2)-specific memory B cell (MBC) responses were examined longitudinally in 15 individuals with varied reinfection outcomes.

RESULTS

Broad nAb responses were associated with MBC recall, but not with clearance of reinfection. Strong evidence of antigen imprinting was found, and the B-cell receptor repertoire showed a high level of clonality with ongoing somatic hypermutation of many clones over subsequent reinfection events. Single-cell transcriptomic analyses showed that cleared reinfections featured an activated transcriptomic profile in HCV-specific B cells that rapidly expanded upon reinfection.

CONCLUSIONS

MBC quality, but not necessarily breadth of nAb responses, is important for protection against antigenically diverse variants, which is encouraging for HCV vaccine development.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

HCV continues to have a major health burden globally. Limitations in the health infrastructure for diagnosis and treatment, as well as high rates of reinfection, indicate that a vaccine that can protect against chronic HCV infection will greatly complement current efforts to eliminate HCV-related disease. With alternative approaches to testing vaccines, such as controlled human inoculation trials under consideration, we desperately need to identify the correlates of immune protection. In this study, in a small but rare cohort of high-risk injecting drug users who were reinfected multiple times, breadth of neutralisation was not associated with ultimate clearance of the reinfection event. Alternatively, characteristics of the HCV-specific B-cell response associated with B-cell proliferation were. This study indicates that humoral responses are important for protection and suggests that for genetically very diverse viruses, such as HCV, it may be beneficial to look beyond just antibodies as correlates of protection.

Cellular and Molecular Immunity to Influenza Viruses and Vaccines

Immune responses to influenza (flu) antigens reflect memory of prior infections or vaccinations, which might influence immunity to new flu antigens. Memory of past antigens has been termed "original antigenic sin" or, more recently, "immune imprinting" and "seniority". We have researched a comparison between the immune response to live flu infections and inactivated flu vaccinations. A brief history of antibody generation theories is presented, culminating in new findings about the immune-network theory and suggesting that a network of clones exists between anti-idiotypic antibodies and T cell receptors. Findings regarding the 2009 pandemic flu strain and immune responses to it are presented, including memory B cells and conserved regions within the hemagglutinin protein. The importance of CD4+ memory T cells and cytotoxic CD8+ T cells responding to both infections and vaccinations are discussed and compared. Innate immune cells, like natural killer (NK) cells and macrophages, are discussed regarding their roles in adaptive immune responses. Antigen presentation via macroautophagy processes is described. New vaccines in development are mentioned along with the results of some clinical trials. The manuscript concludes with how repeated vaccinations are impacting the immune system and a sketch of what might be behind the imprinting phenomenon, including future research directions.

Antigenic cartography using hamster sera identifies SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 evasion seen in human XBB.1.5 booster sera

Antigenic assessments of SARS-CoV-2 variants inform decisions to update COVID-19 vaccines. Primary infection sera are often used for assessments, but such sera are rare due to population immunity from SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 vaccinations. Here, we show that neutralization titers and breadth of matched human and hamster pre-Omicron variant primary infection sera correlate well and generate similar antigenic maps. The hamster antigenic map shows modest antigenic drift among XBB sub-lineage variants, with JN.1 and BA.4/BA.5 variants within the XBB cluster, but with five to six-fold antigenic differences between these variants and XBB.1.5. Compared to sera following only ancestral or bivalent COVID-19 vaccinations, or with post-vaccination infections, XBB.1.5 booster sera had the broadest neutralization against XBB sub-lineage variants, although a five-fold titer difference was still observed between JN.1 and XBB.1.5 variants. These findings suggest that antibody coverage of antigenically divergent JN.1 could be improved with a matched vaccine antigen.

How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space

We extend a previously published model for the dynamics of a single strain of an influenza-like infection. The model incorporates a waning acquired immunity to infection and punctuated antigenic drift of the virus, employing a set of coupled integral equations within a season and a discrete map between seasons. The long term behaviour of the model is demonstrated by examples where immunity to infection depends on the time since a host was last infected, and where immunity depends on the number of times that a host has been infected. The first scenario leads to complicated dynamics in some regions of parameter space, and to regions of parameter space with more than one attractor. The second scenario leads to a stable fixed point, corresponding to an identical epidemic each season. We also examine the model with both paradigms in combination, almost always but not exclusively observing a stable fixed point or periodic solution. Adding stochastic perturbations to the between season map fails to destroy the model's qualitative dynamics. Our results suggest that if the level of host immunity depends on the elapsed time since the last infection then the epidemiological dynamics may be unpredictable.

Antigenic drift expands viral escape pathways from imprinted host humoral immunity

An initial virus exposure can imprint antibodies such that future responses to antigenically drifted strains are dependent on the identity of the imprinting strain. Subsequent exposure to antigenically distinct strains followed by affinity maturation can guide immune responses toward generation of cross-reactive antibodies. How viruses evolve in turn to escape these imprinted broad antibody responses is unclear. Here, we used clonal antibody lineages from two human donors recognizing conserved influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) epitopes to assess viral escape potential using deep mutational scanning. We show that even though antibody affinity maturation does restrict the number of potential escape routes in the imprinting strain through repositioning the antibody variable domains, escape is still readily observed in drifted strains and attributed to epistatic networks within HA. These data explain how influenza virus continues to evolve in the human population by escaping even broad antibody responses.

Durability of Cross-Neutralizing Antibodies 5.5 Months After Bivalent Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Booster

We analyzed neutralizing antibodies in samples from ancestral + BA.1 and ancestral + BA.4/5 boosted individuals, collected around 5.5 months after booster. Titers of neutralizing antibodies generally decreased compared to a time point early after the bivalent booster immunization. This was more pronounced for individuals without infection history and for recently emerged Omicron variants.

SARS-CoV-2-infection- and vaccine-induced antibody responses are long lasting with an initial waning phase followed by a stabilization phase

It is thought that mRNA-based vaccine-induced immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) wanes quickly, based mostly on short-term studies. Here, we analyzed the kinetics and durability of the humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination using >8,000 longitudinal samples collected over a 3-year period in New York City. Upon primary immunization, participants with pre-existing immunity mounted higher antibody responses faster and achieved higher steady-state antibody titers than naive individuals. Antibody kinetics were characterized by two phases: an initial rapid decay, followed by a stabilization phase with very slow decay. Booster vaccination equalized the differences in antibody concentration between participants with and without hybrid immunity, but the peak antibody titers decreased with each successive antigen exposure. Breakthrough infections increased antibodies to similar titers as an additional vaccine dose in naive individuals. Our study provides strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses are long lasting, with initial waning followed by stabilization.

Strategy to develop broadly effective multivalent COVID-19 vaccines against emerging variants based on Ad5/35 platform

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron strain has evolved into highly divergent variants with several sub-lineages. These newly emerging variants threaten the efficacy of available COVID-19 vaccines. To mitigate the occurrence of breakthrough infections and re-infections, and more importantly, to reduce the disease burden, it is essential to develop a strategy for producing updated multivalent vaccines that can provide broad neutralization against both currently circulating and emerging variants. We developed bivalent vaccine AdCLD-CoV19-1 BA.5/BA.2.75 and trivalent vaccines AdCLD-CoV19-1 XBB/BN.1/BQ.1.1 and AdCLD-CoV19-1 XBB.1.5/BN.1/BQ.1.1 using an Ad5/35 platform-based non-replicating recombinant adenoviral vector. We compared immune responses elicited by the monovalent and multivalent vaccines in mice and macaques. We found that the BA.5/BA.2.75 bivalent and the XBB/BN.1/BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5/BN.1/BQ.1.1 trivalent vaccines exhibited improved cross-neutralization ability compared to their respective monovalent vaccines. These data suggest that the developed multivalent vaccines enhance immunity against circulating Omicron subvariants and effectively elicit neutralizing antibodies across a broad spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Boosting with variant-matched adenovirus-based vaccines promotes neutralizing antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages in mice

Global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants, such as BA.4, BA.5 and XBB.1.5, has been leading the recent wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Unique mutations in the spike proteins of these emerging Omicron subvariants caused immune evasion from the pre-existing protective immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection. Previously, we developed AdCLD-CoV19-1, a non-replicating recombinant adenoviral vector that encodes the receptor binding domain of the spike protein of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain. Based on the same recombinant adenoviral vector platform, updated vaccines that cover unique mutations found in each Omicron subvariant, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.4.1 and BA.5, were constructed. Preclinical studies revealed that each updated vaccine as a booster shot following primary vaccination targeting the ancestral strain improved neutralizing antibody responses against the pseudovirus of its respective strain most effectively. Of note, boosting with a vaccine targeting the BA.1 or BA.2 Omicron subvariant was most effective in neutralization against the pseudovirus of the BA.2.75 strain, whereas BA.4.1/5-adapted booster shots were most effective in neutralization against the BQ.1, BQ1.1 and BF.7 strains. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a vaccination strategy that can cover the unique spike mutations of currently circulating Omicron subvariants in order to prevent the next wave of COVID-19.

A polyvalent RNA vaccine reduces the immune imprinting phenotype in mice and induces neutralizing antibodies against omicron SARS-CoV-2

Immune imprinting is now evident in COVID-19 vaccinated people. This phenomenon may impair the development of effective neutralizing antibodies against variants of concern (VoCs), mainly Omicron and its subvariants. Consequently, the boost doses with bivalent vaccines have not shown a significant gain of function regarding the neutralization of Omicron. The approach to design COVID-19 vaccines must be revised to improve the effectiveness against VoCs. Here, we took advantage of the self-amplifying characteristic of RepRNA and developed a polyvalent formulation composed of mRNA from five VoCs. LION/RepRNA Polyvalent induced neutralizing antibodies in mice previously immunized with LION/RepRNA D614G and reduced the imprinted phenotype associated with low neutralization capacity of Omicron B.1.1.529 pseudoviruses. The polyvalent vaccine can be a strategy to handle the low neutralization of Omicron VoC, despite booster doses with either monovalent or bivalent vaccines.

Host and viral determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Syrian hamster

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne virus (24-48 hr), shorter than compared to oropharyngeal swabs. The loss of airborne shedding was linked to airway constriction resulting in a decrease of fine aerosols (1-10 µm) produced, which are suspected to be the major driver of airborne transmission. Male sex was associated with increased viral replication and virus shedding in the air. Next, we compared the transmission efficiency of both variants and found no significant differences. Transmission efficiency varied mostly among donors, 0-100% (including a superspreading event), and aerosol transmission over multiple chain links was representative of natural heterogeneity of exposure dose and downstream viral kinetics. Co-infection with VOCs only occurred when both viruses were shed by the same donor during an increased exposure timeframe (24-48 hr). This highlights that assessment of host and virus factors resulting in a differential exhaled particle profile is critical for understanding airborne transmission.

Applying valency-based immuno-selection to generate broadly cross-reactive antibodies against influenza hemagglutinins

Conserved epitopes shared between virus subtypes are often subdominant, making it difficult to induce broadly reactive antibodies by immunization. Here, we generate a plasmid DNA mix vaccine that encodes protein heterodimers with sixteen different influenza A virus hemagglutinins (HA) representing all HA subtypes except H1 (group 1) and H7 (group 2). Each single heterodimer expresses two different HA subtypes and is targeted to MHC class II on antigen presenting cells (APC). Female mice immunized with the plasmid mix produce antibodies not only against the 16 HA subtypes, but also against non-included H1 and H7. We demonstrate that individual antibody molecules cross-react between different HAs. Furthermore, the mix vaccine induces T cell responses to conserved HA epitopes. Immunized mice are partially protected against H1 viruses. The results show that application of valency-based immuno-selection to diversified antigens can be used to direct antibody responses towards conserved (subdominant) epitopes on viral antigens.

Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. However, our understanding of how RBD's biophysical properties contribute to SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological fitness remains largely incomplete. Through a comprehensive approach, comprising large-scale sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the discovery of a fitness function based on binding thermodynamics, we unravel the relationship between the biophysical properties of RBD variants and their contribution to viral fitness. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by binding constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto a epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations, including explaining the later reversal of Q493R. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Drift and shape-new insights into human immunity against influenza virus neuraminidase

Influenza virus hemagglutinin mediates infection by binding sialic acids, whereas neuraminidase cleaves sialic acids to release progeny virions. Both are targets of protective antibodies, but influenza vaccine strain selection and antigen dose are based on hemagglutinin alone. Virus characterization using first infection ferret sera indicates that escape from hemagglutination inhibiting (HI) antibodies occurs more frequently and is not coordinated with escape from neuraminidase inhibiting (NI) antibodies. A key question addressed by Daulagala et al. (P. Daulagala, B. R. Mann, K. Leung, E. H. Y. Lau, et al., mBio 14:e00084-23, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.00084-23) is how this translates to humans who encounter multiple influenza viruses throughout life. Their cross-sectional study, using sera from a wide age range of participants and H1N1 viruses spanning 1977-2015, indicates that NI antibodies are more broadly cross-reactive than HI antibodies. Both HI and NI titers were highest against strains encountered in childhood indicating that both are shaped by priming exposures. The study further supports the development of NA-optimized vaccines.

Influenza virus immune imprinting dictates the clinical outcomes in ferrets challenged with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1

Zoonotic transmission of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) into the human population is an increasing global threat. The recent 2022 HPAIV outbreak significantly highlighted this possibility, increasing concern in the general population. The clinical outcomes of H5N1 influenza virus exposure can be determined by an individual's primary influenza virus infection (imprinting) or vaccination status. Immunological imprinting with Group 1 - (H1N1, H2N2, and H2N3) increases survival rates following H5N1 viral infection compared to Group 2 - (H3N2) imprinted individuals. Vaccination against H5N1 influenza viruses can offer protection to at-risk populations; however, stockpiled inactivated H5N1 influenza vaccines are not readily available to the public. We hypothesize that the immunological response to vaccination and subsequent clinical outcome following H5N1 influenza virus infection is correlated with the immunological imprinting status of an individual. To test this hypothesis, our lab established a ferret pre-immune model of disease. Naïve ferrets were intranasally inoculated with seasonal influenza viruses and allowed to recover for 84 days prior to H5N1 virus infection. Ferrets imprinted following H1N1 and H2N3 virus infections were completely protected against lethal H5N1 influenza virus challenge (100% survival), with few to no clinical symptoms. In comparison, H3N2 influenza virus-imprinted ferrets had severe clinical symptoms, delayed disease progression, and a sublethal phenotype (40% mortality). Consecutive infections with H1N1 influenza viruses followed by an H3N2 influenza virus infection did not abrogate the immune protection induced by the original H1N1 influenza virus infection. In addition, ferrets consecutively infected with H1N1 and H2N3 viruses had no clinical symptoms or weight loss. H3N2 pre-immune ferrets were vaccinated with a broadly reactive H5 HA-based or H1 NA-based vaccine (Hu-CO 2). These ferrets were protected against H5N1 influenza virus challenge, whereas ferrets vaccinated with the H1N1 wild-type CA/09 rHA vaccine had similar phenotypes as non-vaccinated H3N2-imprinted ferrets with 40% survival. Overall, Group 2 imprinted ferrets, which were vaccinated with heterologous Group 1 HA vaccines, had redirected immune responses to Group 1 influenza viral antigens and rescued a sublethal phenotype to complete protection.

Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin

Human influenza virus evolves to escape neutralization by polyclonal antibodies. However, we have a limited understanding of how the antigenic effects of viral mutations vary across the human population, and how this heterogeneity affects virus evolution. Here we use deep mutational scanning to map how mutations to the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of the A/Hong Kong/45/2019 (H3N2) and A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2) strains affect neutralization by serum from individuals of a variety of ages. The effects of HA mutations on serum neutralization differ across age groups in ways that can be partially rationalized in terms of exposure histories. Mutations that fixed in influenza variants after 2020 cause the greatest escape from sera from younger individuals. Overall, these results demonstrate that influenza faces distinct antigenic selection regimes from different age groups, and suggest approaches to understand how this heterogeneous selection shapes viral evolution.

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Key Amino Acid Residues That Determine the Antigenic Properties of Highly Pathogenic H5 Influenza Viruses Bearing the Clade 2.3.4.4 Hemagglutinin Gene

The H5 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses bearing the clade 2.3.4.4 HA gene have been pervasive among domestic poultry and wild birds worldwide since 2014, presenting substantial risks to human and animal health. Continued circulation of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses has resulted in the emergence of eight subclades (2.3.4.4a-h) and multiple distinct antigenic groups. However, the key antigenic substitutions responsible for the antigenic change of these viruses remain unknown. In this study, we analyzed the HA gene sequences of 5713 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses obtained from a public database and found that 23 amino acid residues were highly variable among these strains. We then generated a series of single-amino-acid mutants based on the H5-Re8 (a vaccine seed virus) background and tested their reactivity with a panel of eight monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). Six mutants bearing amino acid substitutions at positions 120, 126, 141, 156, 185, or 189 (H5 numbering) led to reduced or lost reactivity to these mAbs. Further antigenic cartography analysis revealed that the amino acid residues at positions 126, 156, and 189 acted as immunodominant epitopes of H5 viruses. Collectively, our findings offer valuable guidance for the surveillance and early detection of emerging antigenic variants.

Homologous Ad26.COV2.S vaccination results in reduced boosting of humoral responses in hybrid immunity, but elicits antibodies of similar magnitude regardless of prior infection

The impact of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on the durability of Ad26.COV2.S vaccine-elicited responses, and the effect of homologous boosting has not been well explored. We followed a cohort of healthcare workers for 6 months after receiving the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine and a further one month after they received an Ad26.COV2.S booster dose. We assessed longitudinal spike-specific antibody and T cell responses in individuals who had never had SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those who were infected with either the D614G or Beta variants prior to vaccination. Antibody and T cell responses elicited by the primary dose were durable against several variants of concern over the 6 month follow-up period, regardless of infection history. However, at 6 months after first vaccination, antibody binding, neutralization and ADCC were as much as 59-fold higher in individuals with hybrid immunity compared to those with no prior infection. Antibody cross-reactivity profiles of the previously infected groups were similar at 6 months, unlike at earlier time points, suggesting that the effect of immune imprinting diminishes by 6 months. Importantly, an Ad26.COV2.S booster dose increased the magnitude of the antibody response in individuals with no prior infection to similar levels as those with previous infection. The magnitude of spike T cell responses and proportion of T cell responders remained stable after homologous boosting, concomitant with a significant increase in long-lived early differentiated CD4 memory T cells. Thus, these data highlight that multiple antigen exposures, whether through infection and vaccination or vaccination alone, result in similar boosts after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination.

Characterization of A/H7 influenza virus global antigenic diversity and key determinants in the hemagglutinin globular head mediating A/H7N9 antigenic evolution

IMPORTANCE

A/H7 avian influenza viruses cause outbreaks in poultry globally, resulting in outbreaks with significant socio-economical impact and zoonotic risks. Occasionally, poultry vaccination programs have been implemented to reduce the burden of these viruses, which might result in an increased immune pressure accelerating antigenic evolution. In fact, evidence for antigenic diversification of A/H7 influenza viruses exists, posing challenges to pandemic preparedness and the design of vaccination strategies efficacious against drifted variants. Here, we performed a comprehensive analysis of the global antigenic diversity of A/H7 influenza viruses and identified the main substitutions in the hemagglutinin responsible for antigenic evolution in A/H7N9 viruses isolated between 2013 and 2019. The A/H7 antigenic map and knowledge of the molecular determinants of their antigenic evolution add value to A/H7 influenza virus surveillance programs, the design of vaccines and vaccination strategies, and pandemic preparedness.

Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses

Antigenic variation is the main immune escape mechanism for RNA viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2. While high mutation rates promote antigenic escape, they also induce large mutational loads and reduced fitness. It remains unclear how this cost-benefit trade-off selects the mutation rate of viruses. Using a traveling wave model for the coevolution of viruses and host immune systems in a finite population, we investigate how immunity affects the evolution of the mutation rate and other nonantigenic traits, such as virulence. We first show that the nature of the wave depends on how cross-reactive immune systems are, reconciling previous approaches. The immune-virus system behaves like a Fisher wave at low cross-reactivities, and like a fitness wave at high cross-reactivities. These regimes predict different outcomes for the evolution of nonantigenic traits. At low cross-reactivities, the evolutionarily stable strategy is to maximize the speed of the wave, implying a higher mutation rate and increased virulence. At large cross-reactivities, where our estimates place H3N2 influenza, the stable strategy is to increase the basic reproductive number, keeping the mutation rate to a minimum and virulence low.

Fast clonal family inference from large-scale B cell repertoire sequencing data

Advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have facilitated the large-scale characterization of B cell receptor (BCR) repertoires. However, the vast amount and high diversity of the BCR sequences pose challenges for efficient and biologically meaningful analysis. Here, we introduce fastBCR, an efficient computational approach for inferring B cell clonal families from massive BCR heavy chain sequences. We demonstrate that fastBCR substantially reduces the running time while ensuring high accuracy on simulated datasets with diverse numbers of B cell lineages and varying mutation rates. We apply fastBCR to real BCR sequencing data from peripheral blood samples of COVID-19 patients, showing that the inferred clonal families display disease-associated features, as well as corresponding antigen-binding specificity and affinity. Overall, our results demonstrate the advantages of fastBCR for analyzing BCR repertoire data, which will facilitate the identification of disease-associated antibodies and improve our understanding of the B cell immune response.

Heterologous prime-boost H1N1 vaccination exacerbates disease following challenge with a mismatched H1N2 influenza virus in the swine model

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) pose a significant threat to both human and animal health. Developing IAV vaccine strategies able to elicit broad heterologous protection against antigenically diverse IAV strains is pivotal in effectively controlling the disease. The goal of this study was to examine the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of diverse H1N1 influenza vaccine strategies including monovalent, bivalent, and heterologous prime-boost vaccination regimens, against a mismatched H1N2 swine influenza virus. Five groups were homologous prime-boost vaccinated with either an oil-adjuvanted whole-inactivated virus (WIV) monovalent A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 (GA19) H1N2 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/sw/Minnesota/A02636116/2021 (MN21) H1N1 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/California/07/2009 (CA09) H1N1, a WIV bivalent vaccine composed of CA09 and MN21, or adjuvant only (mock-vaccinated group). A sixth group was prime-vaccinated with CA09 WIV and boosted with MN21 WIV (heterologous prime-boost group). Four weeks post-boost pigs were intranasally and intratracheally challenged with A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019, an H1N2 swine IAV field isolate. Vaccine-induced protection was evaluated based on five critical parameters: (i) hemagglutination inhibiting (HAI) antibody responses, (ii) clinical scores, (iii) virus titers in nasal swabs and respiratory tissue homogenates, (iv) BALf cytology, and (v) pulmonary pathology. While all vaccination regimens induced seroprotective titers against homologous viruses, heterologous prime-boost vaccination failed to enhance HAI responses against the homologous vaccine strains compared to monovalent vaccine regimens and did not expand the scope of cross-reactive antibody responses against antigenically distinct swine and human IAVs. Mismatched vaccination regimens not only failed to confer clinical and virological protection post-challenge but also exacerbated disease and pathology. In particular, heterologous-boosted pigs showed prolonged clinical disease and increased pulmonary pathology compared to mock-vaccinated pigs. Our results demonstrated that H1-specific heterologous prime-boost vaccination, rather than enhancing cross-protection, worsened the clinical outcome and pathology after challenge with the antigenically distant A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 strain.

Host and viral determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Syrian hamster

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne virus (24-48 h), shorter than compared to oropharyngeal swabs. The loss of airborne shedding was linked to airway constriction resulting in a decrease of fine aerosols (1-10μm) produced, which are suspected to be the major driver of airborne transmission. Male sex was associated with increased viral replication and virus shedding in the air. Next, we compared the transmission efficiency of both variants and found no significant differences. Transmission efficiency varied mostly among donors, 0-100% (including a superspreading event), and aerosol transmission over multiple chain links was representative of natural heterogeneity of exposure dose and downstream viral kinetics. Co-infection with VOCs only occurred when both viruses were shed by the same donor during an increased exposure timeframe (24-48 h). This highlights that assessment of host and virus factors resulting in a differential exhaled particle profile is critical for understanding airborne transmission.

COVID-19-Related Age Profiles for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in England and Wales and States of the USA (2020 to 2022): Impact on All-Cause Mortality

Since 2020, COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in establishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death, we first investigate the effects of age and sex on all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we use a 9-year time series and several different methods to adjust single-year-of-age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single-year-of-age baseline. This adjusted base year is then used to confirm the widely reported higher deaths in males for most ages above 43 in both 2020 and 2021. During 2020 (+COVID-19 but no vaccination), both male and female population-adjusted deaths significantly increased above age 35. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality among both males and females aged 75+ could be demonstrated in 2021 during the widespread COVID-19 vaccination period; however, deaths below age 75 progressively increased. This finding arises from a mix of vaccination coverage and year-of-age profiles of deaths for the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, specific effects of age around puberty were demonstrated, where females had higher deaths than males. There is evidence that year-of-birth cohorts may also be involved, indicating that immune priming to specific pathogen outbreaks in the past may have led to lower deaths for some birth cohorts. To specifically identify the age profile for the COVID-19 variants from 2020 to 2023, we employ the proportion of total deaths at each age that are potentially due to or 'with' COVID-19. The original Wuhan strain and the Alpha variant show somewhat limited divergence in the age profile, with the Alpha variant shifting to a moderately higher proportion of deaths below age 84. The Delta variant specifically targeted individuals below age 65. The Omicron variants showed a significantly lower proportion of overall mortality, with a markedly higher relative proportion of deaths above age 65, steeply increasing with age to a maximum around 100 years of age. A similar age profile for the variants can be seen in the age-banded deaths in US states, although they are slightly obscured by using age bands rather than single years of age. However, the US data shows that higher male deaths are greatly dependent on age and the COVID variant. Deaths assessed to be 'due to' COVID-19 (as opposed to 'involving' COVID-19) in England and Wales were especially overestimated in 2021 relative to the change in all-cause mortality. This arose as a by-product of an increase in COVID-19 testing capacity in late 2020. Potential structure-function mechanisms for the age-specificity of SARS-CoV-2 variants are discussed, along with potential roles for small noncoding RNAs (miRNAs). Using data from England, it is possible to show that the unvaccinated do indeed have a unique age profile for death from each variant and that vaccination alters the shape of the age profile in a manner dependent on age, sex, and the variant. The question is posed as to whether vaccines based on different variants carry a specific age profile.

Mapping SARS-CoV-2 antigenic relationships and serological responses

During the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, multiple variants escaping preexisting immunity emerged, causing reinfections of previously exposed individuals. Here, we used antigenic cartography to analyze patterns of cross-reactivity among 21 variants and 15 groups of human sera obtained after primary infection with 10 different variants or after messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 or mRNA-1273.351 vaccination. We found antigenic differences among pre-Omicron variants caused by substitutions at spike-protein positions 417, 452, 484, and 501. Quantifying changes in response breadth over time and with additional vaccine doses, our results show the largest increase between 4 weeks and >3 months after a second dose. We found changes in immunodominance of different spike regions, depending on the variant an individual was first exposed to, with implications for variant risk assessment and vaccine-strain selection.

Cross-protection and cross-neutralization capacity of ancestral and VOC-matched SARS-CoV-2 adenoviral vector-based vaccines

COVID-19 vaccines were originally designed based on the ancestral Spike protein, but immune escape of emergent Variants of Concern (VOC) jeopardized their efficacy, warranting variant-proof vaccines. Here, we used preclinical rodent models to establish the cross-protective and cross-neutralizing capacity of adenoviral-vectored vaccines expressing VOC-matched Spike. CoroVaxG.3-D.FR, matched to Delta Plus Spike, displayed the highest levels of nAb to the matched VOC and mismatched variants. Cross-protection against viral infection in aged K18-hACE2 mice showed dramatic differences among the different vaccines. While Delta-targeted vaccines fully protected mice from a challenge with Gamma, a Gamma-based vaccine offered only partial protection to Delta challenge. Administration of CorovaxG.3-D.FR in a prime/boost regimen showed that a booster was able to increase the neutralizing capacity of the sera against all variants and fully protect aged K18-hACE2 mice against Omicron BA.1, as a BA.1-targeted vaccine did. The neutralizing capacity of the sera diminished in all cases against Omicron BA.2 and BA.5. Altogether, the data demonstrate that a booster with a vaccine based on an antigenically distant variant, such as Delta or BA.1, has the potential to protect from a wider range of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, although careful surveillance of breakthrough infections will help to evaluate combination vaccines targeting antigenically divergent variants yet to emerge.

Comparative Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Antigenicity across Assays and in Human and Animal Model Sera

The antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 requires ongoing monitoring to judge the immune escape of newly arising variants. A surveillance system necessitates an understanding of differences in neutralization titers measured in different assays and using human and animal sera. We compared 18 datasets generated using human, hamster, and mouse sera, and six different neutralization assays. Titer magnitude was lowest in human, intermediate in hamster, and highest in mouse sera. Fold change, immunodominance patterns and antigenic maps were similar among sera. Most assays yielded similar results, except for differences in fold change in cytopathic effect assays. Not enough data was available for conclusively judging mouse sera, but hamster sera were a consistent surrogate for human first-infection sera.

Molecular mimicry and autoimmunity in the time of COVID-19

Infectious diseases are commonly implicated as potential initiators of autoimmune diseases (ADs) and represent the most commonly known factor in the development of autoimmunity in susceptible individuals. Epidemiological data and animal studies on multiple ADs suggest that molecular mimicry is one of the likely mechanisms for the loss of peripheral tolerance and the development of clinical disease. Besides molecular mimicry, other mechanisms such as defects in central tolerance, nonspecific bystander activation, epitope-determinant spreading, and/or constant antigenic stimuli, may also contribute for breach of tolerance and to the development of ADs. Linear peptide homology is not the only mechanism by which molecular mimicry is established. Peptide modeling (i.e., 3D structure), molecular docking analyses, and affinity estimation for HLAs are emerging as critical strategies when studying the links of molecular mimicry in the development of autoimmunity. In the current pandemic, several reports have confirmed an influence of SARS-CoV-2 on subsequent autoimmunity. Bioinformatic and experimental evidence support the potential role of molecular mimicry. Peptide dimensional analysis requires more research and will be increasingly important for designing and distributing vaccines and better understanding the role of environmental factors related to autoimmunity.

Comparison of bivalent and monovalent SARS-CoV-2 variant vaccines: the phase 2 randomized open-label COVAIL trial

Vaccine protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection wanes over time, requiring updated boosters. In a phase 2, open-label, randomized clinical trial with sequentially enrolled stages at 22 US sites, we assessed safety and immunogenicity of a second boost with monovalent or bivalent variant vaccines from mRNA and protein-based platforms targeting wild-type, Beta, Delta and Omicron BA.1 spike antigens. The primary outcome was pseudovirus neutralization titers at 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50 titers) with 95% confidence intervals against different SARS-CoV-2 strains. The secondary outcome assessed safety by solicited local and systemic adverse events (AEs), unsolicited AEs, serious AEs and AEs of special interest. Boosting with prototype/wild-type vaccines produced numerically lower ID50 titers than any variant-containing vaccine against all variants. Conversely, boosting with a variant vaccine excluding prototype was not associated with decreased neutralization against D614G. Omicron BA.1 or Beta monovalent vaccines were nearly equivalent to Omicron BA.1 + prototype or Beta + prototype bivalent vaccines for neutralization of Beta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.4/5, although they were lower for contemporaneous Omicron subvariants. Safety was similar across arms and stages and comparable to previous reports. Our study shows that updated vaccines targeting Beta or Omicron BA.1 provide broadly crossprotective neutralizing antibody responses against diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants without sacrificing immunity to the ancestral strain. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05289037 .

Using interpretable machine learning to extend heterogeneous antibody-virus datasets

A central challenge in biology is to use existing measurements to predict the outcomes of future experiments. For the rapidly evolving influenza virus, variants examined in one study will often have little to no overlap with other studies, making it difficult to discern patterns or unify datasets. We develop a computational framework that predicts how an antibody or serum would inhibit any variant from any other study. We validate this method using hemagglutination inhibition data from seven studies and predict 2,000,000 new values ± uncertainties. Our analysis quantifies the transferability between vaccination and infection studies in humans and ferrets, shows that serum potency is negatively correlated with breadth, and provides a tool for pandemic preparedness. In essence, this approach enables a shift in perspective when analyzing data from "what you see is what you get" into "what anyone sees is what everyone gets."

Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 neutralization profiles after bivalent boosting using antigenic cartography

Since emergence of the initial SARS-CoV-2 BA.1, BA.2 and BA.5 variants, Omicron has diversified substantially. Antigenic characterization of these new variants is important to analyze their potential immune escape from population immunity and implications for future vaccine composition. Here, we describe an antigenic map based on human single-exposure sera and live-virus isolates that includes a broad selection of recently emerged Omicron variants such as BA.2.75, BF.7, BQ, XBB and XBF variants. Recent Omicron variants clustered around BA.1 and BA.5 with some variants further extending the antigenic space. Based on this antigenic map we constructed antibody landscapes to describe neutralization profiles after booster immunization with bivalent mRNA vaccines based on ancestral virus and either BA.1 or BA.4/5. Immune escape of BA.2.75, BQ, XBB and XBF variants was also evident in bivalently boosted individuals, however, cross-neutralization was improved for those with hybrid immunity. Our results indicate that future vaccine updates are needed to induce cross-neutralizing antibodies against currently circulating variants.

Vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody responses to seasonal influenza virus H1N1 strains are not enhanced during subsequent pandemic H1N1 infection

The first exposure to influenza is presumed to shape the B-cell antibody repertoire, leading to preferential enhancement of the initially formed responses during subsequent exposure to viral variants. Here, we investigated whether this principle remains applicable when there are large genetic and antigenic differences between primary and secondary influenza virus antigens. Because humans usually have a complex history of influenza virus exposure, we conducted this investigation in influenza-naive cynomolgus macaques. Two groups of six macaques were immunized four times with influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) displaying either one (monovalent) or five (pentavalent) different hemagglutinin (HA) antigens derived from seasonal H1N1 (H1N1) strains. Four weeks after the final immunization, animals were challenged with pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09). Although immunization resulted in robust virus-neutralizing responses to all VLP-based vaccine strains, there were no cross-neutralization responses to H1N1pdm09, and all animals became infected. No reductions in viral load in the nose or throat were detected in either vaccine group. After infection, strong virus-neutralizing responses to H1N1pdm09 were induced. However, there were no increases in virus-neutralizing titers against four of the five H1N1 vaccine strains; and only a mild increase was observed in virus-neutralizing titer against the influenza A/Texas/36/91 vaccine strain. After H1N1pdm09 infection, both vaccine groups showed higher virus-neutralizing titers against two H1N1 strains of intermediate antigenic distance between the H1N1 vaccine strains and H1N1pdm09, compared with the naive control group. Furthermore, both vaccine groups had higher HA-stem antibodies early after infection than the control group. In conclusion, immunization with VLPs displaying HA from antigenically distinct H1N1 variants increased the breadth of the immune response during subsequent H1N1pdm09 challenge, although this phenomenon was limited to intermediate antigenic variants.

Effect of seasonal coronavirus immune imprinting on the immunogenicity of inactivated COVID-19 vaccination

Background

Pre-existing cross-reactive immunity among different coronaviruses, also termed immune imprinting, may have a comprehensive impact on subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness. Here, we aim to explore the interplay between pre-existing seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs) antibodies and the humoral immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccination.

Methods

We first collected serum samples from healthy donors prior to COVID-19 pandemic and individuals who had received COVID-19 vaccination post-pandemic in China, and the levels of IgG antibodies against sCoVs and SARS-CoV-2 were detected by ELISA. Wilcoxon rank sum test and chi-square test were used to compare the difference in magnitude and seropositivity rate between two groups. Then, we recruited a longitudinal cohort to collect serum samples before and after COVID-19 vaccination. The levels of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 S, S1, S2 and N antigen were monitored. Association between pre-existing sCoVs antibody and COVID-19 vaccination-induced antibodies were analyzed by Spearman rank correlation.

Results

96.0% samples (339/353) showed the presence of IgG antibodies against at least one subtype of sCoVs. 229E and OC43 exhibited the highest seroprevalence rates at 78.5% and 72.0%, respectively, followed by NL63 (60.9%) and HKU1 (52.4%). The levels of IgG antibodies against two β coronaviruses (OC43 and HKU1) were significantly higher in these donors who had inoculated with COVID-19 vaccines compared to pre-pandemic healthy donors. However, we found that COVID-19 vaccine-induced antibody levels were not significant different between two groups with high levelor low level of pre-existing sCoVs antibody among the longitudinal cohort.

Conclusion

We found a high prevalence of antibodies against sCoVs in Chinese population. The immune imprinting by sCoVs could be reactivated by COVID-19 vaccination, but it did not appear to be a major factor affecting the immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccine. These findings will provide insights into understanding the impact of immune imprinting on subsequent multiple shots of COVID-19 vaccines.