Limited effects of xylem anatomy on embolism resistance in cycad leaves

Drought-induced xylem embolism is a primary cause of plant mortality. Although c. 70% of cycads are threatened by extinction and extant cycads diversified during a period of increasing aridification, the vulnerability of cycads to embolism spread has been overlooked. We quantified the vulnerability to drought-induced embolism, pressure-volume curves, in situ water potentials, and a suite of xylem anatomical traits of leaf pinnae and rachises for 20 cycad species. We tested whether anatomical traits were linked to hydraulic safety in cycads. Compared with other major vascular plant clades, cycads exhibited similar embolism resistance to angiosperms and pteridophytes but were more vulnerable to embolism than noncycad gymnosperms. All 20 cycads had both tracheids and vessels, the proportions of which were unrelated to embolism resistance. Only vessel pit membrane fraction was positively correlated to embolism resistance, contrary to angiosperms. Water potential at turgor loss was significantly correlated to embolism resistance among cycads. Our results show that cycads exhibit low resistance to xylem embolism and that xylem anatomical traits - particularly vessels - may influence embolism resistance together with tracheids. This study highlights the importance of understanding the mechanisms of drought resistance in evolutionarily unique and threatened lineages like the cycads.

Evidence of combined flower thermal and drought vulnerabilities portends reproductive failure under hotter-drought conditions

Despite the abundant evidence of impairments to plant performance and survival under hotter-drought conditions, little is known about the vulnerability of reproductive organs to climate extremes. Here, by conducting a comparative analysis between flowers and leaves, we investigated how variations in key morphophysiological traits related to carbon and water economics can explain the differential vulnerabilities to heat and drought among these functionally diverse organs. Due to their lower construction costs, despite having a higher water storage capacity, flowers were more prone to turgor loss (higher turgor loss point; ΨTLP) than leaves, thus evidencing a trade-off between carbon investment and drought tolerance in reproductive organs. Importantly, the higher ΨTLP of flowers also resulted in narrow turgor safety margins (TSM). Moreover, compared to leaves, the cuticle of flowers had an overall higher thermal vulnerability, which also resulted in low leakage safety margins (LSM). As a result, the combination of low TSMs and LSMs may have negative impacts on reproduction success since they strongly influenced the time to turgor loss under simulated hotter-drought conditions. Overall, our results improve the knowledge of unexplored aspects of flower structure and function and highlight likely threats to successful plant reproduction in a warmer and drier world.

Planting long-lived trees in a warming climate: Theory shows the importance of stage-dependent climatic tolerance

Climate change poses a particular threat to long-lived trees, which may not adapt or migrate fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures. Assisted gene flow could facilitate adaptation of populations to future climates by using managed translocation of seeds from a warmer location (provenance) within the current range of a species. Finding the provenance that will perform best in terms of survival or growth is complicated by a trade-off. Because trees face a rapidly changing climate during their long lives, the alleles that confer optimal performance may vary across their lifespan. For instance, trees from warmer provenances could be well adapted as adults but suffer from colder temperatures while juvenile. Here we use a stage-structured model, using both analytical predictions and numerical simulations, to determine which provenance would maximize the survival of a cohort of long-lived trees in a changing climate. We parameterize our simulations using empirically estimated demographic transition matrices for 20 long-lived tree species. Unable to find reliable quantitative estimates of how climatic tolerance changes across stages in these same species, we varied this parameter to study its effect. Both our mathematical model and simulations predict that the best provenance depends strongly on how fast the climate changes and also how climatic tolerance varies across the lifespan of a tree. We thus call for increased empirical efforts to measure how climate tolerance changes over life in long-lived species, as our model suggests that it should strongly influence the best provenance for assisted gene flow.

Assessing vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins in reed-like Restionaceae

The African Restionaceae (Poales), the dominant graminoid layer in the megadiverse Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, are distributed across a wide range of moisture availability, yet currently there is very little known about the underlying hydraulics of this group. We tested two methods for measuring culm vulnerability to embolism, the optical and pneumatic methods, in three species of Cannomois ranging in habitat from semi-riparian (Cannomois virgata) to dryland (Cannomois parviflora and C. congesta). Estimates of culm xylem vulnerability were coupled with measures of turgor loss point (ΨTLP) and minimum field water potential (ΨMD) to assess hydraulic safety margins. The optical and pneumatic methods produced similar estimates of P50, but differed for P12 and P88. All three species were quite vulnerable to embolism, with P50 of -1.9 MPa (C. virgata), -2.3 MPa (C. congesta), and -2.4 MPa (C. parviflora). Estimates of P50, ΨTLP and ΨMD aligned with habitat moisture stress, with highest values found in the semi-riparian C. virgata. Consistent differences in P50, ΨMD and ΨTLP between species resulted in consistent hydraulic safety margins across species of 0.96 ± 0.1 MPa between ΨMD and P50, with onset of embolism occurring 0.43 ± 0.04 MPa after ΨTLP for all three species. Our study demonstrates that restio occupancy of dry environments involves more than the evolution of highly resistant xylem, suggesting that other aspects of water relations are key to understanding trait-environment relationships in this group.

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Suillus: an emerging model for the study of ectomycorrhizal ecology and evolution

Research on mycorrhizal symbiosis has been slowed by a lack of established study systems. To address this challenge, we have been developing Suillus, a widespread ecologically and economically relevant fungal genus primarily associated with the plant family Pinaceae, into a model system for studying ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations. Over the last decade, we have compiled extensive genomic resources, culture libraries, a phenotype database, and protocols for manipulating Suillus fungi with and without their tree partners. Our efforts have already resulted in a large number of publicly available genomes, transcriptomes, and respective annotations, as well as advances in our understanding of mycorrhizal partner specificity and host communication, fungal and plant nutrition, environmental adaptation, soil nutrient cycling, interspecific competition, and biological invasions. Here, we highlight the most significant recent findings enabled by Suillus, present a suite of protocols for working with the genus, and discuss how Suillus is emerging as an important model to elucidate the ecology and evolution of ECM interactions.

Plasticity and implications of water-use traits in contrasting tropical tree species under climate change

Plants face a trade-off between hydraulic safety and growth, leading to a range of water-use strategies in different species. However, little is known about such strategies in tropical trees and whether different water-use traits can acclimate to warming. We studied five water-use traits in 20 tropical tree species grown at three different altitudes in Rwanda (RwandaTREE): stomatal conductance (gs), leaf minimum conductance (gmin), plant hydraulic conductance (Kplant), leaf osmotic potential (ψo) and net defoliation during drought. We also explored the links between these traits and growth and mortality data. Late successional (LS) species had low Kplant, gs and gmin and, thus, low water loss, while low ψo helped improve leaf water status during drought. Early successional (ES) species, on the contrary, used more water during both moist and dry conditions and exhibited pronounced drought defoliation. The ES strategy was associated with lower mortality and more pronounced growth enhancement at the warmer sites compared to LS species. While Kplant and gmin showed downward acclimation in warmer climates, ψo did not acclimate and gs measured at prevailing temperature did not change. Due to distinctly different water use strategies between successional groups, ES species may be better equipped for a warmer climate as long as defoliation can bridge drought periods.

Hydraulic vulnerability difference between branches and roots increases with environmental aridity

The vulnerability of plant xylem to embolism can be described as the water potential at which xylem conductivity is lost by 50% (P50). According to the traditional hypothesis of hydraulic vulnerability segmentation, the difference in vulnerability to embolism between branches and roots is positive (P50 root-branch > 0). It is not clear whether this occurs broadly across species or how segmentation might vary across aridity gradients. We compiled hydraulic and anatomical datasets from branches and roots across 104 woody species (including new measurements from 10 species) in four biomes to investigate the relationships between P50 root-branch and environmental factors associated with aridity. We found a positive P50 root-branch relationship across species, and evidence that P50 root-branch increases with aridity. Branch xylem hydraulic conductivity transitioned from more efficient (e.g., wider conduit, higher hydraulic conductivity) to safer (e.g., narrower conduit, more negative P50) in response to the increase of aridity, while root xylem hydraulic conductivity remained unchanged across aridity gradients. Our results demonstrate that the hydraulic vulnerability difference between branches and roots is more positive in species from arid regions, largely driven by modifications to branch traits.

Unravelling the neglected role of ultraviolet radiation on stomata: A meta-analysis with implications for modelling ecosystem-climate interactions

Stomata play a pivotal role in regulating gas exchange between plants and the atmosphere controlling water and carbon cycles. Accordingly, we investigated the impact of ultraviolet-B radiation, a neglected environmental factor varying with ongoing global change, on stomatal morphology and function by a Comprehensive Meta-Analysis. The overall UV effect at the leaf level is to decrease stomatal conductance, stomatal aperture and stomatal size, although stomatal density was increased. The significant decline in stomatal conductance is marked (6% in trees and >10% in grasses and herbs) in short-term experiments, with more modest decreases noted in long-term UV studies. Short-term experiments in growth chambers are not representative of long-term field UV effects on stomatal conductance. Important consequences of altered stomatal function are hypothesized. In the short term, UV-mediated stomatal closure may reduce carbon uptake but also water loss through transpiration, thereby alleviating deleterious effects of drought. However, in the long term, complex changes in stomatal aperture, size, and density may reduce the carbon sequestration capacity of plants and increase vegetation and land surface temperatures, potentially exacerbating negative effects of drought and/or heatwaves. Therefore, the expected future strength of carbon sink capacity in high-UV regions is likely overestimated.

Drought- and heat-induced mortality of conifer trees is explained by leaf and growth legacies

An increased frequency and severity of droughts and heat waves have resulted in increased tree mortality and forest dieback across the world, but underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a common garden experiment with 20 conifer tree species to quantify mortality after three consecutive hot, dry summers and tested whether mortality could be explained by putative underlying mechanisms, such as stem hydraulics and legacies affected by leaf life span and stem growth responses to previous droughts. Mortality varied from 0 to 79% across species and was not affected by hydraulic traits. Mortality increased with species' leaf life span probably because leaf damage caused crown dieback and contributed to carbon depletion and bark beetle damage. Mortality also increased with lower growth resilience, which may exacerbate the contribution of carbon depletion and bark beetle sensitivity to tree mortality. Our study highlights how ecological legacies at different time scales can explain tree mortality in response to hot, dry periods and climate change.

Variation in xylem vulnerability to cavitation shapes the photosynthetic legacy of drought

Increased drought conditions impact tree health, negatively disrupting plant water transport which, in turn, affects plant growth and survival. Persistent drought legacy effects have been documented in many diverse ecosystems, yet we still lack a mechanistic understanding of the physiological processes limiting tree recovery after drought. Tackling this question, we exposed saplings of a common Australian evergreen tree (Eucalyptus viminalis) to a cycle of drought and rewatering, seeking evidence for a link between the spread of xylem cavitation within the crown and the degree of photosynthetic recovery postdrought. Individual leaves experiencing >35% vein cavitation quickly died but this did not translate to a rapid overall canopy damage. Rather, whole canopies showed a gradual decline in mean postdrought gas exchange rates as water stress increased. This gradual loss of canopy function postdrought was due to a significant variation in cavitation vulnerability of leaves within canopies leading to diversity in the capacity of leaves within a single crown to recover function after drought. These results from the evergreen E. viminalis emphasise the importance of within-crown variation in xylem vulnerability as a central character regulating the dynamics of canopy death and the severity of drought legacy through time.

Hurricanes pose a substantial risk to New England forest carbon stocks

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO2e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO2e year-1). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS.

Unpacking the point of no return under drought in poplar: insight from stem diameter variation

A specific, robust threshold for drought-induced tree mortality is needed to improve the prediction of forest dieback. Here, we tested the relevance of continuous measurements of stem diameter variations for identifying such a threshold, their relationship with hydraulic and cellular damage mechanisms, and the influence of growth conditions on these relationships. Poplar saplings were grown under well-watered, water-limited, or light-limited conditions and then submitted to a drought followed by rewatering. Stem diameter was continuously measured to investigate two parameters: the percentage loss of diameter (PLD) and the percentage of diameter recovery (DR) following rewatering. Water potentials, stomatal conductance, embolism, and electrolyte leakage were also measured, and light microscopy allowed investigating cell collapse induced by drought. The water release observed through loss of diameter occurred throughout the drought, regardless of growth conditions. Poplars did not recover from drought when PLD reached a threshold and this differed according to growth conditions but remained linked to cell resistance to damage and collapse. Our findings shed new light on the mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality and indicate that PLD could be a relevant indicator of drought-induced tree mortality, regardless of the growth conditions.

Contrasting patterns of water use efficiency and annual radial growth among European beech forests along the Italian peninsula

Tree mortality and forest dieback episodes are increasing due to drought and heat stress. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms enabling trees to withstand and survive droughts remains lacking. Our study investigated basal area increment (BAI), and δ13C-derived intrinsic water-use-efficiency (iWUE), to elucidate beech resilience across four healthy stands in Italy with varying climates and soil water availability. Additionally, fist-order autocorrelation (AR1) analysis was performed to detect early warning signals for potential tree dieback risks during extreme drought events. Results reveal a negative link between BAI and vapour pressure deficit (VPD), especially in southern latitudes. After the 2003 drought, BAI decreased at the northern site, with an increase in δ13C and iWUE, indicating conservative water-use. Conversely, the southern sites showed increased BAI and iWUE, likely influenced by rising CO2 and improved water availability. In contrast, the central site sustained higher transpiration rates due to higher soil water holding capacity (SWHC). Despite varied responses, most sites exhibited reduced resilience to future extreme events, indicated by increased AR1. Temperature significantly affected beech iWUE and BAI in northern Italy, while VPD strongly influenced the southern latitudes. The observed increase in BAI and iWUE in southern regions might be attributed to an acclimation response.

No effect of snow on shrub xylem traits: Insights from a snow-manipulation experiment on Disko Island, Greenland

Widespread shrubification across the Arctic has been generally attributed to increasing air temperatures, but responses vary across species and sites. Wood structures related to the plant hydraulic architecture may respond to local environmental conditions and potentially impact shrub growth, but these relationships remain understudied. Using methods of dendroanatomy, we analysed shrub ring width (RW) and xylem anatomical traits of 80 individuals of Salix glauca L. and Betula nana L. at a snow manipulation experiment in Western Greenland. We assessed how their responses differed between treatments (increased versus ambient snow depth) and soil moisture regimes (wet and dry). Despite an increase in snow depth due to snow fences (28-39 %), neither RW nor anatomical traits in either species showed significant responses to this increase. In contrast, irrespective of the snow treatment, the xylem specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and earlywood vessel size (LA95) for the study period were larger in S. glauca (p < 0.1, p < 0.01) and B. nana (p < 0.01, p < 0.001) at the wet than the dry site, while both species had larger vessel groups at the dry than the wet site (p < 0.01). RW of B. nana was higher at the wet site (p < 0.01), but no differences were observed for S. glauca. Additionally, B. nana Ks and LA95 showed different trends over the study period, with decreases observed at the dry site (p < 0.001), while for other responses no difference was observed. Our results indicate that, taking into account ontogenetic and allometric trends, hydraulic related xylem traits of both species, along with B. nana growth, were influenced by soil moisture. These findings suggest that soil moisture regime, but not snow cover, may determine xylem responses to future climate change and thus add to the heterogeneity of Arctic shrub dynamics, though more long-term species- and site- specific studies are needed.

A COMPASS histone H3K4 trimethyltransferase pentamer transactivates drought tolerance and growth/biomass production in Populus trichocarpa

Histone H3 lysine-4 trimethylation (H3K4me3) activating drought-responsive genes in plants for drought adaptation has long been established, but the underlying regulatory mechanisms are unknown. Here, using yeast two-hybrid, bimolecular fluorescence complementation, biochemical analyses, transient and CRISPR-mediated transgenesis in Populus trichocarpa, we unveiled in this adaptation a regulatory interplay between chromatin regulation and gene transactivation mediated by an epigenetic determinant, a PtrSDG2-1-PtrCOMPASS (complex proteins associated with Set1)-like H3K4me3 complex, PtrSDG2-1-PtrWDR5a-1-PtrRbBP5-1-PtrAsh2-2 (PtrSWRA). Under drought conditions, a transcription factor PtrAREB1-2 interacts with PtrSWRA, forming a PtrSWRA-PtrAREB1-2 pentamer, to recruit PtrSWRA to specific promoter elements of drought-tolerant genes, such as PtrHox2, PtrHox46, and PtrHox52, for depositing H3K4me3 to promote and maintain activated state of such genes for tolerance. CRISPR-edited defects in the pentamer impaired drought tolerance and elevated expression of PtrHox2, PtrHox46, or PtrHox52 improved the tolerance as well as growth in P. trichocarpa. Our findings revealed the identity of the underlying H3K4 trimethyltransferase and its interactive arrangement with the COMPASS for catalysis specificity and efficiency. Furthermore, our study uncovered how the H3K4 trimethyltransferase-COMPASS complex is recruited to the effector genes for elevating H3K4me3 marks for improved drought tolerance and growth/biomass production in plants.

Weak local adaptation to drought in seedlings of a widespread conifer

Tree seedlings from populations native to drier regions are often assumed to be more drought tolerant than those from wetter provenances. However, intraspecific variation in drought tolerance has not been well-characterized despite being critical for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and for predicting the effects of drought on forests. We used a large-scale common garden drought-to-death experiment to assess range-wide variation in drought tolerance, measured by decline of photosynthetic efficiency, growth, and plastic responses to extreme summer drought in seedlings of 73 natural populations of the two main varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and var. glauca). Local adaptation to drought was weak in var. glauca and nearly absent in menziesii. Var. glauca showed higher tolerance to drought but slower growth than var. menziesii. Clinal variation in drought tolerance and growth species-wide was mainly associated with temperature rather than precipitation. A higher degree of plasticity for growth was observed in var. menziesii in response to extreme drought. Genetic variation for drought tolerance in seedlings within varieties is maintained primarily within populations. Selective breeding within populations may facilitate adaptation to drought more than assisted gene flow.

A trade-off between leaf hydraulic efficiency and safety across three xerophytic species in response to increased rock fragment content

Limited information is available on the variation of plant leaf hydraulic traits in relation to soil rock fragment content (RFC), particularly for xerophytes native to rocky mountain areas. In this study, we conducted a field experiment with four gradients of RFC (0, 25, 50 and 75% ν ν-1) on three different xerophytic species (Sophora davidii, Cotinus szechuanensis and Bauhinia brachycarpa). We measured predawn and midday leaf water potential (Ψleaf), leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf), Ψleaf induced 50% loss of Kleaf (P50), pressure-volume curve traits and leaf structure. A consistent response of hydraulic traits to increased RFC was observed in three species. Kleaf showed a decrease, whereas P50 and turgor loss point (Ψtlp) became increasingly negative with increasing RFC. Thus, a clear trade-off between hydraulic efficiency and safety was observed in the xerophytic species. In all three species, the reduction in Kleaf was associated with an increase in leaf mass per area. In S. davidii, alterations in Kleaf and P50 were driven by leaf vein density (VLA) and Ψtlp. In C. szechuanensis, Ψtlp and VLA drove the changes in Kleaf and P50, respectively. In B. brachycarpa, changes in P50 were driven by VLA, whereas changes in both Kleaf and P50 were simultaneously influenced by Ψtlp. Our findings suggest that adaptation to increased rockiness necessarily implies a trade-off between leaf hydraulic efficiency and safety in xerophytic species. Additionally, the trade-off between leaf hydraulic efficiency and safety among xerophytic species is likely to result from processes occurring in the xylem and the outside-xylem hydraulic pathways. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the survival strategies and mechanisms of xerophytes in rocky soils, and provide a theoretical basis for the persistence of xerophytic species in areas with stony substrates.

Divergent role of nutrient availability in determining drought responses of sessile oak and Scots pine seedlings: evidence from 13C and 15N dual labeling

Increased soil nutrient availability can promote tree growth while drought impairs metabolic functioning and induces tree mortality. However, limited information is available about the role of nutrients in the drought responses of trees. A greenhouse experiment was conducted with sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, which were subjected to three fertilization treatments in the first year and two water regimes in the second year. Old and newly fixed carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) allocation were traced by dual labeling with 13C and 15N tracers, respectively, at two time points. Leaf gas exchange, biomass, as well as N and nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations of all organs were measured. Fertilization predisposed sessile oak to drought-induced mortality, mainly by prioritizing aboveground growth, C and N allocation, reducing root NSC concentrations and decreasing old C contribution to new growth of leaves. In contrast, fertilization did not additionally predispose Scots pine to drought, with minor effects of fertilization and drought on newly fixed and old C allocation, tissues N and NSC concentrations. The role of nutrients for drought responses of trees seems to be species-specific. Therefore, we suggest nutrient availability and species identity to be considered in the framework of physiological mechanisms affecting drought-induced mortality.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Interactions between beech and oak seedlings can modify the effects of hotter droughts and the onset of hydraulic failure

Mixing species with contrasting resource use strategies could reduce forest vulnerability to extreme events. Yet, how species diversity affects seedling hydraulic responses to heat and drought, including mortality risk, is largely unknown. Using open-top chambers, we assessed how, over several years, species interactions (monocultures vs mixtures) modulate heat and drought impacts on the hydraulic traits of juvenile European beech and pubescent oak. Using modeling, we estimated species interaction effects on timing to drought-induced mortality and the underlying mechanisms driving these impacts. We show that mixtures mitigate adverse heat and drought impacts for oak (less negative leaf water potential, higher stomatal conductance, and delayed stomatal closure) but enhance them for beech (lower water potential and stomatal conductance, narrower leaf safety margins, faster tree mortality). Potential underlying mechanisms include oak's larger canopy and higher transpiration, allowing for quicker exhaustion of soil water in mixtures. Our findings highlight that diversity has the potential to alter the effects of extreme events, which would ensure that some species persist even if others remain sensitive. Among the many processes driving diversity effects, differences in canopy size and transpiration associated with the stomatal regulation strategy seem the primary mechanisms driving mortality vulnerability in mixed seedling plantations.

Extreme drought can deactivate ABA biosynthesis in embolism-resistant species

The phytohormone abscisic acid (ABA) is synthesised by plants during drought to close stomata and regulate desiccation tolerance pathways. Conifers and some angiosperms with embolism-resistant xylem show a peaking-type (p-type) response in ABA levels, in which ABA levels increase early in drought then decrease as drought progresses, declining to pre-stressed levels. The mechanism behind this dynamic remains unknown. Here, we sought to characterise the mechanism driving p-type ABA dynamics in the conifer Callitris rhomboidea and the highly drought-resistant angiosperm Umbellularia californica. We measured leaf water potentials (Ψl ), stomatal conductance, ABA, conjugates and phaseic acid (PA) levels in potted plants during a prolonged but non-fatal drought. Both species displayed a p-type ABA dynamic during prolonged drought. In branches collected before and after the peak in endogenous ABA levels in planta, that were rehydrated overnight and then bench dried, ABA biosynthesis was deactivated beyond leaf turgor loss point. Considerable conversion of ABA to conjugates was found to occur during drought, but not catabolism to PA. The mechanism driving the decline in ABA levels in p-type species may be conserved across embolism-resistant seed plants and is mediated by sustained conjugation of ABA and the deactivation of ABA accumulation as Ψl becomes more negative than turgor loss.

Cliff-edge forests: Xerothermic hotspots of local biodiversity and models for future climate change

Cliffs are remarkable environments that enable the existence of microclimates. These small, isolated sites, decoupled from the regional macroclimate, play a significant role in maintaining species biodiversity, particularly in topographically homogeneous landscapes. Our study investigated the microclimate of south-exposed forests situated at the edge of sandstone cliffs in the western part of the North Alpine Foreland Basin in Switzerland and its role in local forest community composition. Using direct measurements from data loggers, as well as vegetation analyses, it was possible to quantify the microclimate of the cliff-edge forests and compare it with that of the surrounding forests. Our results highlighted the significant xerothermic and more variable nature of the cliff-edge forest microclimate, with a mean soil temperature up to 3.72°C warmer in the summer, higher annual (+28%) and daily (+250%) amplitudes of soil temperature, which frequently expose vegetation to extreme temperatures, and an 83% higher soil drying rate. These differences have a distinct influence on forest communities: cliff-edge forests are significantly different from surrounding forests. The site particularities of cliff edges support the presence of locally rare species and forest types, particularly of Scots pine. Cliff edges must therefore be considered microrefugia with a high conservation value for both xerothermic species and flora adapted to more continental climates. Moreover, the microclimate of cliff-edge forests could resemble the future climate in many ways. We argue that these small areas, which are already experiencing the future climate, can be seen as natural laboratories to better answer the following question: what will our forests look like in a few decades with accelerated climate change?

Novel light regimes in European forests

Tree canopies are one of the most recognizable features of forests, providing shelter from external influences to a myriad of species that live within and below the tree foliage. Canopy disturbances are now increasing across European forests, and climate-change-induced drought is a key driver, together with pests and pathogens, storms and fire. These disturbances are opening the canopy and exposing below-canopy biodiversity and functioning to novel light regimes-spatial and temporal characteristics of light distribution at forest floors not found previously. The majority of forest biodiversity occurs in the shade within and below tree canopies, and numerous ecosystem processes are regulated at the forest floor. Altered light regimes, in interaction with other global change drivers, can thus strongly impact forest biodiversity and functioning. As recent European droughts are unprecedented in the past two millennia, and this has initiated probably the largest pulse of forest disturbances in almost two centuries, we urgently need to quantify, understand and predict the impacts of novel light regimes on below-canopy forest biodiversity and functions. This will be a crucial element in delivering much-needed information for policymakers and managers to adapt European forests to future no-analogue conditions.

Herb hydraulics: Variation and correlation for traits governing drought tolerance and efficiency of water transport

Hydraulic traits dictate plant response to drought, thus enabling better understanding of community dynamics under global climate change. Despite being intensively documented in woody species, herbaceous species (graminoids and forbs) are largely understudied, hence the distribution and correlation of hydraulic traits in herbaceous species remains unclear. Here, we collected key hydraulic traits for 436 herbaceous species from published literature, including leaf hydraulic conductivity (Kleaf), water potential inducing 50 % loss of hydraulic conductivity (P50), stomatal closure (Pclose) and turgor loss (Ptlp). Trait variation of herbs was analyzed and contrasted with angiosperm woody species within the existing global hydraulic traits database, as well as between different growth forms within herbs. Furthermore, hydraulic traits coordination was also assessed for herbaceous species. We found that herbs showed overall more negative Pclose but less negative Ptlp compared with angiosperm woody species, while P50 did not differ between functional types, regardless of the organ (leaf and stem). In addition, correlations were found between Kleaf and P50 of leaf (P50leaf), as well as between Pclose, P50leaf and Kleaf. Within herbs, graminoids generally exhibited more negative P50 and Ptlp, but lower Kleaf, relative to forbs. Within herbs, no clear pattern regarding hydraulic traits-climate relationship was found. Our analysis provided insights into herb hydraulic, and highlighted the knowledge gaps need to be filled regarding the response of herbs to drought.

Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades

Droughts have been implicated as the main driver behind recent vegetation die-off and are projected to drive greater mortality under future climate change. Understanding the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought has been of great global interest. Currently, the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought is mainly evaluated by correlation coefficients or regression slopes. However, the optimal drought timescale of vegetation response to drought, as a key indicator reflecting vegetation sensitivity to drought, has largely been ignored. Here, we apply the optimal drought timescale identification method to examine the change in coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades (1982-2015) with long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index data. We find substantial increasing response of vegetation to drought timescales globally, and the correlation coefficient between vegetation and drought under optimal drought timescale overall declines between 1982 and 2015. This decrease in vegetation-drought coupling is mainly observed in regions with water deficit, although its initial correlation is relatively high. However, vegetation in water-surplus regions, with low coupling in earlier stages, is prone to show an increasing trend. The observed changes may be driven by the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 . Our findings highlight more pressing drought risk in water-surplus regions than in water-deficit regions, which advances our understanding of the long-term vegetation-drought relationship and provides essential insights for mapping future vegetation sensitivity to drought under changing climate conditions.

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

Petiole XLA (xylem to leaf area ratio) integrates hydraulic safety and efficiency across a diverse group of eucalypt leaves

A theoretical trade-off between the efficiency and safety of water transport systems in plants is used to explain diverse ecological patterns, from tree size to community structure. Despite its pervasive influence, this theory has marginal empirical support. This may be partially due to obfuscation of associations by wide phylogenetic sampling or non-standard sampling between studies. To address this, we examine the coordination of structural and anatomical traits linked to hydraulic safety and efficiency in the leaves of an ecologically diverse group of eucalypts. We introduce a new trait for characterising leaf water transport function measured as the cross-sectional XA at the petiole divided by the downstream leaf area (XLApetiole ). Variation in XLApetiole revealed support for a safety-efficiency trade-off in eucalypt leaves. XLApetiole was negatively correlated with theoretical petiole xylem conductivity (Ks_petiole ) and strongly negatively correlated with leaf cavitation vulnerability (Ψ50leaf ). Species with lower Ψ50leaf exhibited petiole xylem with narrower vessels and greater fibre wall area fractions. Our findings highlight XLApetiole as a novel integrative trait that provides insights into the evolution of leaf form and function in eucalypts and holds promise for wider use among diverse species.

Nutritional changes in trees during drought-induced mortality: A comprehensive meta-analysis and a field study

Both macronutrients and micronutrients are essential for tree growth and development through participating in various ecophysiological processes. However, the impact of the nutritional status of trees on their ability to withstand drought-induced mortality remains inconclusive. We thus conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis, compiling data on 11 essential nutrients from 44 publications (493 independent observations). Additionally, a field study was conducted on Pinus sylvestris L. trees with varying drought-induced vitality loss in the "Visp" forest in southern Switzerland. No consistent decline in tree nutritional status was observed during tree mortality. The meta-analysis revealed significantly lower leaf potassium (K), iron (Fe), and copper (Cu) concentrations with tree mortality. However, the field study showed no causal relationships between nutritional levels and the vitality status of trees. This discrepancy is mainly attributed to the intrinsic differences in the two types of experimental designs and the ontogenetic stages of target trees. Nutrient reductions preceding tree mortality were predominantly observed in non-field conditions, where the study was conducted on seedlings and saplings with underdeveloped root systems. It limits the nutrient uptake capacity of these young trees during drought. Furthermore, tree nutritional responses are also influenced by many variables. Specifically, (a) leaf nutrients are more susceptible to drought stress than other organs; (b) reduced tree nutrient concentrations are more prevalent in evergreen species during drought-induced mortality; (c) of all biomes, Mediterranean forests are most vulnerable to drought-induced nutrient deficiencies; (d) soil types affect the direction and extent of tree nutritional responses. We identified factors that influence the relationship between tree nutritional status and drought survival, and proposed potential early-warning indicators of impending tree mortality, for example, decreased K concentrations with declining vitality. These findings contribute to our understanding of tree responses to drought and provide practical implications for forest management strategies in the context of global change.

Drought sensitivity in mesic forests heightens their vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is shifting the structure and function of global forests, underscoring the critical need to predict which forests are most vulnerable to a hotter and drier future. We analyzed 6.6 million tree rings from 122 species to assess trees' sensitivity to water and energy availability. We found that trees growing in wetter portions of their range exhibit the greatest drought sensitivity. To test how these patterns of drought sensitivity influence vulnerability to climate change, we predicted tree growth through 2100. Our results suggest that drought adaptations in arid regions will partially buffer trees against climate change. By contrast, trees growing in the wetter, hotter portions of their climatic range may experience unexpectedly large adverse impacts under climate change.

The AP2/ERF transcription factor PtoERF15 confers drought tolerance via JA-mediated signaling in Populus

Drought stress is one of the major limiting factors for the growth and development of perennial trees. Xylem vessels act as the center of water conduction in woody species, but the underlying mechanism of its development and morphogenesis under water-deficient conditions remains elucidation. Here, we identified and characterized an osmotic stress-induced ETHYLENE RESPONSE FACTOR 15 (PtoERF15) and its target, PtoMYC2b, which was involved in mediating vessel size, density, and cell wall thickness in response to drought in Populus tomentosa. PtoERF15 is preferentially expressed in differentiating xylem of poplar stems. Overexpression of PtoERF15 contributed to stem water potential maintaining, thus promoting drought tolerance. RNA-Seq and biochemical analysis further revealed that PtoERF15 directly regulated PtoMYC2b, encoding a switch of JA signaling pathway. Additionally, our findings verify that three sets of homologous genes from NAC (NAM, ATAF1/2, and CUC2) gene family: PtoSND1-A1/A2, PtoVND7-1/7-2, and PtoNAC118/120, as the targets of PtoMYC2b, are involved in the regulation of vessel morphology in poplar. Collectively, our study provides molecular evidence for the involvement of the PtoERF15-PtoMYC2b transcription cascade in maintaining stem water potential through the regulation of xylem vessel development, ultimately improving drought tolerance in poplar.

Assessing the agreement between the pneumatic and the flow-centrifuge method for estimating xylem safety in temperate diffuse-porous tree species

The increasing frequency of global change-type droughts has created a need for fast, accurate and widely applicable techniques for estimating xylem embolism resistance to improve forecasts of future forest changes. We used data from 12 diffuse-porous temperate tree species covering a wide range of xylem safety to compare the pneumatic and flow-centrifuge method, two rapid methods used for constructing xylem vulnerability curves. We evaluated the agreement between parameters estimated with both methods and the sensitivity of pneumatic measurements to the duration of air discharge (AD) measurements. There was close agreement between xylem water potentials at 50% air discharged (PAD), estimated with the Pneumatron, and 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC), estimated with the flow-centrifuge method (mean signed deviation: 0.12 MPa, Pearson correlation: 0.96 after 15 s of gas extraction). However, the relationship between the estimated slopes was more variable, resulting in lower agreement in the xylem water potential at 12% and 88% PAD/PLC. The agreement between the two methods was not affected by species-specific vessel length distributions. All pneumatic parameters were sensitive to AD time. Overall agreement was highest at relatively short AD times, with an optimum at 16 s. Our results highlight the value of the Pneumatron as an easy and reliable tool to estimate 50% embolism thresholds for a wide range of diffuse-porous temperate angiosperms. Further, our study provides a set of useful metrics for methodological comparisons of vulnerability curves in terms of systematic and random deviations, as well as overall agreement.

Tree mortality during long-term droughts is lower in structurally complex forest stands

Increasing drought frequency and severity in a warming climate threaten forest ecosystems with widespread tree deaths. Canopy structure is important in regulating tree mortality during drought, but how it functions remains controversial. Here, we show that the interplay between tree size and forest structure explains drought-induced tree mortality during the 2012-2016 California drought. Through an analysis of over one million trees, we find that tree mortality rate follows a "negative-positive-negative" piecewise relationship with tree height, and maintains a consistent negative relationship with neighborhood canopy structure (a measure of tree competition). Trees overshadowed by tall neighboring trees experienced lower mortality, likely due to reduced exposure to solar radiation load and lower water demand from evapotranspiration. Our findings demonstrate the significance of neighborhood canopy structure in influencing tree mortality and suggest that re-establishing heterogeneity in canopy structure could improve drought resiliency. Our study also indicates the potential of advances in remote-sensing technologies for silvicultural design, supporting the transition to multi-benefit forest management.

In situ characterisation of whole-plant stomatal responses to VPD using leaf optical dendrometry

Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) plays a crucial role in regulating plant carbon and water fluxes due to its influence on stomatal behaviour and transpiration. Yet, characterising stomatal responses of the whole plant to VPD remains challenging due to methodological limitations. Here, we develop a novel method for in situ assessment of whole-plant stomatal responses (gc ) to VPD in the herbaceous plant Tanacetum cinerariifolium. To do this, we examine the relationship between daytime VPD and the corresponding soil-stem water potential gradient (ΔΨ) monitored using the optical dendrometry in well-hydrated plants under nonlimiting light in both glasshouse and field conditions. In glasshouse plants, ΔΨ increased proportionally with the VPD up to a threshold of 1.53 kPa, beyond which the slope decreased, suggesting a two-phase response in gc . This pattern aligned with corresponding gravimetrically measured gc behaviour, which also showed a decline when VPD exceeded a similar threshold. This response was then compared with that of field plants monitored using the optical dendrometry technique over a growing season under naturally variable VPD conditions and nonlimiting light and water supply. Field plants exhibited a similar threshold-type response to VPD but were more sensitive than glasshouse individuals with a VPD threshold of 0.74 kPa. The results showed that whole-plant gc responses to VPD can be characterised optically in T. cinerariifolium, introducing a new tool for the monitoring and characterisation of stomatal behaviour in situ.

Microbial biomarkers of tree water status for next-generation biomonitoring of forest ecosystems

Next-generation biomonitoring proposes to combine machine-learning algorithms with environmental DNA data to automate the monitoring of the Earth's major ecosystems. In the present study, we searched for molecular biomarkers of tree water status to develop next-generation biomonitoring of forest ecosystems. Because phyllosphere microbial communities respond to both tree physiology and climate change, we investigated whether environmental DNA data from tree phyllosphere could be used as molecular biomarkers of tree water status in forest ecosystems. Using an amplicon sequencing approach, we analysed phyllosphere microbial communities of four tree species (Quercus ilex, Quercus robur, Pinus pinaster and Betula pendula) in a forest experiment composed of irrigated and non-irrigated plots. We used these microbial community data to train a machine-learning algorithm (Random Forest) to classify irrigated and non-irrigated trees. The Random Forest algorithm detected tree water status from phyllosphere microbial community composition with more than 90% accuracy for oak species, and more than 75% for pine and birch. Phyllosphere fungal communities were more informative than phyllosphere bacterial communities in all tree species. Seven fungal amplicon sequence variants were identified as candidates for the development of molecular biomarkers of water status in oak trees. Altogether, our results show that microbial community data from tree phyllosphere provides information on tree water status in forest ecosystems and could be included in next-generation biomonitoring programmes that would use in situ, real-time sequencing of environmental DNA to help monitor the health of European temperate forest ecosystems.

Adaptive divergence and genetic vulnerability of relict species under climate change: a case study of Pterocarya macroptera

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Understanding adaptive genetic variation and whether it can keep pace with predicted future climate change is critical in assessing the genetic vulnerability of species and developing conservation management strategies. The lack of information on adaptive genetic variation in relict species carrying abundant genetic resources hinders the assessment of genetic vulnerability. Using a landscape genomics approach, this study aimed to determine how adaptive genetic variation shapes population divergence and to predict the adaptive potential of Pterocarya macroptera (a vulnerable relict species in China) under future climate scenarios.

METHODS

We applied restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to obtain 8244 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 160 individuals across 28 populations. We examined the pattern of genetic diversity and divergence, and then identified outliers by genetic differentiation (FST) and genotype-environment association (GEA) methods. We further dissected the effect of geographical/environmental gradients on genetic variation. Finally, we predicted genetic vulnerability and adaptive risk under future climate scenarios.

KEY RESULTS

We identified three genetic lineages within P. macroptera: the Qinling-Daba-Tianmu Mountains (QDT), Western Sichuan (WS) and Northwest Yunnan (NWY) lineages, which showed significant signals of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE). IBD and IBE explained 3.7-5.7 and 8.6-12.8 % of the genetic structure, respectively. The identified GEA SNP-related genes were involved in chemical defence and gene regulation and may exhibit higher genetic variation to adapt to the environment. Gradient forest analysis revealed that the genetic variation was mainly shaped by temperature-related variables, indicating its adaptation to local thermal environments. A limited adaptive potential was suggested by the high levels of genetic vulnerability in marginal populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental gradient mainly shaped the population differentiation of P. macroptera. Marginal populations may be at high risk of extinction, and thus proactive management measures, such as assisted gene flow, are required to ensure the survival of these populations.

Key hydraulic traits control the dynamics of plant dehydration in four contrasting tree species during drought

Trees are at risk of mortality during extreme drought, yet our understanding of the traits that govern the timing of drought-induced hydraulic failure remains limited. To address this, we tested SurEau, a trait-based soil-plant-atmosphere model designed to predict the dynamics of plant dehydration as represented by the changes in water potential against those observed in potted trees of four contrasting species (Pinus halepensis Mill., Populus nigra L., Quercus ilex L. and Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carriére) exposed to drought. SurEau was parameterized with a range of plant hydraulic and allometric traits, soil and climatic variables. We found a close correspondence between the predicted and observed plant water potential (in MPa) dynamics during the early phase drought, leading to stomatal closure, as well as during the latter phase of drought, leading to hydraulic failure in all four species. A global model's sensitivity analysis revealed that, for a common plant size (leaf area) and soil volume, dehydration time from full hydration to stomatal closure (Tclose) was most strongly controlled by the leaf osmotic potential (Pi0) and its influence on stomatal closure, in all four species, while the maximum stomatal conductance (gsmax) also contributed to Tclose in Q. ilex and C. atlantica. Dehydration times from stomatal closure to hydraulic failure (Tcav) was most strongly controlled by Pi0, the branch residual conductance (gres) and Q10a sensitivity of gres in the three evergreen species, while xylem embolism resistance (P50) was most influential in the deciduous species P. nigra. Our findings point to SurEau as a highly useful model for predicting changes in plant water status during drought and suggest that adjustments made in key hydraulic traits are potentially beneficial to delaying the onset of drought-induced hydraulic failure in trees.

Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Forest productivity recovery or collapse? Model-data integration insights on drought-induced tipping points

More frequent and severe droughts are driving increased forest mortality around the globe. We urgently need to describe and predict how drought affects forest carbon cycling and identify thresholds of environmental stress that trigger ecosystem collapse. Quantifying the effects of drought at an ecosystem level is complex because dynamic climate-plant relationships can cause rapid and/or prolonged shifts in carbon balance. We employ the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) to investigate legacy effects of drought on forest carbon pools and fluxes. Our Bayesian model-data fusion approach uses tower observed meteorological forcing and carbon fluxes to determine the response and sensitivity of aboveground and belowground ecological processes associated with the 2012-2015 California drought. Our study area is a mid-montane mixed conifer forest in the Southern Sierras. CARDAMOM constrained with gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates covering 2011-2017 show a ~75% reduction in GPP, compared to negligible GPP change when constrained with 2011 only. Precipitation across 2012-2015 was 45% (474 mm) lower than the historical average and drove a cascading depletion in soil moisture and carbon pools (foliar, labile, roots, and litter). Adding 157 mm during an especially stressful year (2014, annual rainfall = 293 mm) led to a smaller depletion of water and carbon pools, steering the ecosystem away from a state of GPP tipping-point collapse to recovery. We present novel process-driven insights that demonstrate the sensitivity of GPP collapse to ecosystem foliar carbon and soil moisture states-showing that the full extent of GPP response takes several years to arise. Thus, long-term changes in soil moisture and carbon pools can provide a mechanistic link between drought and forest mortality. Our study provides an example for how key precipitation threshold ranges can influence forest productivity, making them useful for monitoring and predicting forest mortality events.

The role of arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis in improving plant water status under drought

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) have been presumed to ameliorate crop tolerance to drought. Here, we review the role of AMF in maintaining water supply to plants from drying soils and the underlying biophysical mechanisms. We used a soil-plant hydraulic model to illustrate the impact of several AMF mechanisms on plant responses to edaphic drought. The AMF enhance the soil's capability to transport water and extend the effective root length, thereby attenuating the drop in matric potential at the root surface during soil drying. The synthesized evidence and the corresponding simulations demonstrate that symbiosis with AMF postpones the stress onset limit, which is defined as the disproportionality between transpiration rates and leaf water potentials, during soil drying. The symbiosis can thus help crops survive extended intervals of limited water availability. We also provide our perspective on future research needs and call for reconciling the dynamic changes in soil and root hydraulics in order to better understand the role of AMF in plant water relations in the face of climate changes.

Increased impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

There are broad effects of vegetation changes on regional climate, carbon budget, the water cycle, and ecosystems' productivity. Therefore, further knowledge of the drivers of future vegetation changes is critical to mitigate the influences of global warming. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of interannual climate variability and is likely to affect vegetation on the global scale. Nonetheless, little is known about the causal impacts of ENSO on future vegetation cover with changes in land use and a warming environment. Here, we examined the connections between ENSO and vegetation using leaf area index (LAI) data over the period 2015-2100 from Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our findings indicate that, compared with the historical period 1915-2000, the vegetated areas influenced by ENSO are projected to rise by approximately 55.2% and 20.7% during the twenty-first century of the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Though uncertainty for the causal link between ENSO and vegetation changes remains in several regions (i.e., parts of North America, southern Australia, and western Asia), ENSO signature on LAI variations is robust over northern Australia, Amazonia, and parts of Southeast Asia. These results indicate that the influences of ENSO on global vegetation may strengthen in the future.

Combined heat and water stress leads to local xylem failure and tissue damage in pyrethrum flowers

Flowers are critical for angiosperm reproduction and the production of food, fiber, and pharmaceuticals, yet for unknown reasons, they appear particularly sensitive to combined heat and drought stress. A possible explanation for this may be the co-occurrence of leaky cuticles in flower petals and a vascular system that has a low capacity to supply water and is prone to failure under water stress. These characteristics may render reproductive structures more susceptible than leaves to runaway cavitation-an uncontrolled feedback cycle between rising water stress and declining water transport efficiency that can rapidly lead to lethal tissue desiccation. We provide modeling and empirical evidence to demonstrate that flower damage in the perennial crop pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium), in the form of irreversible desiccation, corresponds with runaway cavitation in the flowering stem after a combination of heat and water stress. We show that tissue damage is linked to greater evaporative demand during high temperatures rather than direct thermal stress. High floral transpiration dramatically reduced the soil water deficit at which runaway cavitation was triggered in pyrethrum flowering stems. Identifying runaway cavitation as a mechanism leading to heat damage and reproductive losses in pyrethrum provides different avenues for process-based modeling to understand the impact of climate change on cultivated and natural plant systems. This framework allows future investigation of the relative susceptibility of diverse plant species to reproductive failure under hot and dry conditions.

Can leaf drought tolerance predict species abundance and its changes in tropical-subtropical forests?

Climate change has resulted in an increase in drought severity in the species-rich tropical and subtropical forests of southern China. Exploring the spatiotemporal relationship between drought-tolerance trait and tree abundance provides a means to elucidate the impact of droughts on community assembly and dynamics. In this study, we measured the leaf turgor loss point (πtlp) for 399 tree species from three tropical forest plots and three subtropical forest plots. The plot area was 1 ha and tree abundance was calculated as total basal area per hectare according to the nearest community census data. The first aim of this study was to explore πtlp abundance relationships in the six plots across a range of precipitation seasonality. Additionally, three of the six plots (two tropical forests and one subtropical forest) had consecutive community censuses data (12-22 years) and the mortality ratios and abundance year slope of tree species were analyzed. The second aim was to examine whether πtlp is a predictor of tree mortality and abundance changes. Our results showed that tree species with lower (more negative) πtlp were more abundant in the tropical forests with relative high seasonality. However, πtlp was not related to tree abundance in the subtropical forests with low seasonality. Moreover, πtlp was not a good predictor of tree mortality and abundance changes in both humid and dry forests. This study reveals the restricted role of πtlp in predicting the response of forests to increasing droughts under climate change.

Woody plant functional traits and phylogenetic signals correlate with urbanization in remnant forest patches

Exploring the alterations in functional traits of urban remnant vegetation offers a more comprehensive perspective on plant assembly within the context of urbanization. While plant functional traits are influenced by both environmental gradients and the evolutionary history of plant species, the specific mechanisms by which urbanization mediates the combination of functional traits and the evolutionary history of remnant vegetation remain unclear. To examine the relationship between functional traits and phylogenies of remnant vegetation and urbanization, we classified the woody plant species surveyed in 72 sample plots in nine remnant forest patches in Guiyang, China, into four groups (urban, rural, middle and general groups) according to their location under different levels of urbanization and measured nine functional traits of these species. The phylogenetic signals of each functional trait of the four species groups were then quantified based on Blomberg's K. Furthermore, we analysed the correlations between functional traits and species abundance using phylogenetic generalized least squares. The results showed that significant phylogenetic signals were detected in more functional traits of the urban group than other groups. Thirteen and three significant relationships between functional traits and species abundance were detected for tree and shrub species after removing phylogenies. Tall tree species were more abundant in the urban group, while the general group favoured the species with adaptable traits (low height and high leaf area and C/N). Overall, we demonstrate that urbanization drove shifts in plant functional traits in remnant forests after combining the phylogenetic patterns.

Effects of drought, disturbance, and biotic neighborhood on experimental tree seedling performance

Forest biodiversity is likely maintained by a complex suite of interacting drivers that vary in importance across both space and time. Contributing factors include disturbance, interannual variation in abiotic variables, and biotic neighborhood effects. To probe ongoing uncertainties and potential interactions, we investigated tree seedling performance in a temperate mid-Atlantic forest ecosystem. We planted seedlings of five native tree species in mapped study plots, half of which were subjected to disturbance, and then monitored seedling survival, height growth, and foliar condition. The final year of data collection encompassed a drought, enabling comparison between intervals varying in water availability. Seedling performance was analyzed as a function of canopy cover and biotic neighborhood (conspecific and heterospecific abundance), including interactions, with separate generalized linear mixed models fit for each interval. All species exhibited: (a) pronounced declines in height growth during the drought year, (b) detrimental effects of adult conspecifics, and (c) beneficial effects of canopy openness. However, despite these consistencies, there was considerable variation across species in terms of the relevant predictors for each response variable in each interval. Our results suggest that drought may strengthen or reveal conspecific inhibition in some instances while weakening it or obscuring it in others, and that some forms of conspecific inhibition may manifest only under particular canopy conditions (although given the inconsistency of our findings, we are not convinced that conspecific inhibition is critical for diversity maintenance in our study system). Overall, our work reveals a complex forest ecosystem that appears simultaneously and interactively governed by biotic neighborhood structure (e.g., conspecific and/or heterospecific abundance), local habitat conditions (e.g., canopy cover), and interannual variability (e.g., drought).

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Climate change-related growth improvements in a wide niche-breadth tree species across contrasting environments

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The vulnerability and responsiveness of forests to drought are immensely variable across biomes. Intraspecific tree responses to drought in species with wide niche breadths that grow across contrasting climatically environments might provide key information regarding forest resistance and changes in species distribution under climate change. Using a species with an exceptionally wide niche breath, we tested the hypothesis that tree populations thriving in dry environments are more resistant to drought than those growing in moist locations.

METHODS

We determined temporal trends in tree radial growth of 12 tree populations of Nothofagus antarctica (Nothofagaceae) located across a sharp precipitation gradient (annual precipitation of 500-2000 mm) in Chile and Argentina. Using dendrochronological methods, we fitted generalized additive mixed-effect models to predict the annual basal area increment as a function of year and dryness (De Martonne aridity index). We also measured carbon and oxygen isotope signals (and estimated intrinsic water-use efficiency) to provide potential physiological causes for tree growth responses to drought.

KEY RESULTS

We found unexpected improvements in growth during 1980-1998 in moist sites, while growth responses in dry sites were mixed. All populations, independent of site moisture, showed an increase in their intrinsic water-use efficiency in recent decades, a tendency that seemed to be explained by an increase in the photosynthetic rate instead of drought-induced stomatal closure, given that δ18O did not change with time.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of drought-induced negative effects on tree growth in a tree species with a wide niche breadth is promising because it might relate to the causal mechanisms tree species possess to face ongoing drought events. We suggest that the drought resistance of N. antarctica might be attributable to its low stature and relatively low growth rate.