A global meta-analysis reveals a consistent reduction of soil fauna abundance and richness as a consequence of land use conversion

Land use conversion of natural to production systems is one of the most important threats to belowground communities and to the key ecosystem processes in which they are involved. Available literature shows positive, negative, and neutral effects of land use changes on soil fauna communities; and these varying effects may be due to different characteristics of natural and production systems and soil organisms. We hypothesize that land conversion from high to low plant biomass, diversity, and structural complexity systems may have the most negative impacts on soil fauna. Here, we performed the first meta-analysis evaluating the overall effects of land use conversion on soil invertebrate communities and the influence of factors related to characteristics of natural and production systems, of soil fauna communities and methods. We compiled a dataset of 260 publications that yielded 1732 observations for soil fauna abundance and 459 for richness. Both abundance and richness showed a global decline as a consequence of natural land conversion to production systems. These negative effects were stronger, in general, when the conversion occurred in tropical and subtropical sites, and when natural systems were replaced by croplands, pastures and grazing systems. The effects of land use conversion also depended on soil property changes. In addition, the abundance of most taxa and richness of Acari and Collembola were strongly reduced by land use changes while Annelida were not affected. The highest reduction in abundance was recorded in omnivores and predators, whereas detritivores showed a reduction in richness. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence of soil biodiversity decline due to different land use changes and the partial dependence of those effects on the magnitude of changes in vegetation. These findings stress the need to continue developing production modes that effectively preserve soil biodiversity and ecosystem processes, without hampering food production.

Mining threats in high-level biodiversity conservation policies

Amid a global infrastructure boom, there is increasing recognition of the ecological impacts of the extraction and consumption of construction minerals, mainly processed as concrete, including significant and expanding threats to global biodiversity. We investigated how high-level national and international biodiversity conservation policies address mining threats, with a special focus on construction minerals. We conducted a review and quantified the degree to which threats from mining these minerals are addressed in biodiversity goals and targets under the 2011-2020 and post-2020 biodiversity strategies, national biodiversity strategies and action plans, and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Mining appeared rarely in national targets but more frequently in national strategies. Yet, in most countries, it was superficially addressed. Coverage of aggregates mining was greater than coverage of limestone mining. We outline 8 key components, tailored for a wide range of actors, to effectively mainstream biodiversity conservation into the extractive, infrastructure, and construction sectors. Actions include improving reporting and monitoring systems, enhancing the evidence base around mining impacts on biodiversity, and modifying the behavior of financial agents and businesses. Implementing these measures could pave the way for a more sustainable approach to construction mineral use and safeguard biodiversity.

Evidence of predation pressure on sensitive species by raccoons based on parasitological studies

To demonstrate predation and potential impacts of raccoons on various species, a total of 108 raccoons from aquatic-associated nature reserves and natural areas in three federal states of Germany, Hesse (n = 36), Saxony-Anhalt (n = 36) and Brandenburg (n = 36), were investigated from a dietary ecological perspective in the present study. Fecal analyses and stomach content examinations were conducted for this purpose. Additionally, as a supplementary method for analyzing the dietary spectrum of raccoons, the parasite fauna was considered, as metazoan parasites, in particular, can serve as indicators for the species and origin of food organisms. While stomach content analyses allow for a detailed recording of trophic relationships solely at the time of sampling, parasitological examinations enable inferences about more distant interaction processes. With their different developmental stages and heteroxenous life cycles involving specific, sometimes obligate, intermediate hosts, they utilize the food web to reach their definitive host. The results of this study clearly demonstrate that spawning areas of amphibians and reptiles were predominantly utilized as food resources by raccoons in the study areas. Thus, common toad (Bufo bufo), common newt (Lissotriton vulgaris), grass frog (Rana temporaria), and grass snake (Natrix natrix) were identified as food organisms for raccoons. The detection of the parasite species Euryhelmis squamula, Isthmiophora melis, and Physocephalus sexalatus with partially high infestation rates also suggests that both amphibians and reptiles belong to the established dietary components of raccoons from an ecological perspective, as amphibians and reptiles are obligate intermediate hosts in the respective parasitic life cycles of the detected parasites. The study clearly demonstrates that raccoons have a significant impact on occurrence-sensitive animal species in certain areas and, as an invasive species, can exert a negative influence on native species and ecosystems.

Establishing a protected area network in Xinlong with other effective area-based conservation measures

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal to biodiversity conservation, yet their efficacy is compromised by insufficient funding and management. So-called other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) present a paradigm shift and address PA limitations. Such measures can expand conservation areas, enhance connectivity, and improve the existing system. To assess the conservation status of biodiversity in Tibetan cultural areas in China, we investigated the spatial distribution of wildlife vulnerable to human disturbance (large- and medium-sized mammals and terrestrial birds) in Xinlong, a traditional Tibetan cultural area. In particular, we compared a PA (Xionglongxi Nature Reserve) and OECMs targeting species conservation. We also investigated the relationship of wildlife with human temporal and spatial activities. The OECMs complemented areas not covered by PA, especially in rich understory biodiversity regions. More species in OECMs tolerated human presence than species in the PA. Existing biodiversity reserves failed to cover areas of high conservation value in Tibet and offered limited protection capacity. Expanding PAs and identifying OECMs improved Xinlong's system by covering most biodiversity hotspots. Building on the tradition of wildlife conservation in Tibet, harnessing OECMs may be an effective means of augmenting biodiversity conservation capacity. We recommend further evaluation of OECMs effectiveness and coverage in Tibetan area as a way to enhance the current PA system.

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

Indigenous Peoples provide alternative approaches to managing biological invasions

Biological invasions are a main threat to biodiversity. Seebens et al. find that Indigenous Peoples' lands host 30% fewer alien species than other lands. This finding calls for additional examination of the drivers of such difference, from Indigenous Peoples' land management practices to the values that guide relations with nature.

Evolution of parasites in the Anthropocene: new pressures, new adaptive directions

The Anthropocene is seeing the human footprint rapidly spreading to all of Earth's ecosystems. The fast-changing biotic and abiotic conditions experienced by all organisms are exerting new and strong selective pressures, and there is a growing list of examples of human-induced evolution in response to anthropogenic impacts. No organism is exempt from these novel selective pressures. Here, we synthesise current knowledge on human-induced evolution in eukaryotic parasites of animals, and present a multidisciplinary framework for its study and monitoring. Parasites generally have short generation times and huge fecundity, features that predispose them for rapid evolution. We begin by reviewing evidence that parasites often have substantial standing genetic variation, and examples of their rapid evolution both under conditions of livestock production and in serial passage experiments. We then present a two-step conceptual overview of the causal chain linking anthropogenic impacts to parasite evolution. First, we review the major anthropogenic factors impacting parasites, and identify the selective pressures they exert on parasites through increased mortality of either infective stages or adult parasites, or through changes in host density, quality or immunity. Second, we discuss what new phenotypic traits are likely to be favoured by the new selective pressures resulting from altered parasite mortality or host changes; we focus mostly on parasite virulence and basic life-history traits, as these most directly influence the transmission success of parasites and the pathology they induce. To illustrate the kinds of evolutionary changes in parasites anticipated in the Anthropocene, we present a few scenarios, either already documented or hypothetical but plausible, involving parasite taxa in livestock, aquaculture and natural systems. Finally, we offer several approaches for investigations and real-time monitoring of rapid, human-induced evolution in parasites, ranging from controlled experiments to the use of state-of-the-art genomic tools. The implications of fast-evolving parasites in the Anthropocene for disease emergence and the dynamics of infections in domestic animals and wildlife are concerning. Broader recognition that it is not only the conditions for parasite transmission that are changing, but the parasites themselves, is needed to meet better the challenges ahead.

Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no 'rule of thumb' for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Actions speak louder than words: the case for responsible scientific activism in an era of planetary emergency

The world's understanding of the climate and ecological crises rests on science. However, scientists' conventional methods of engagement, such as producing ever more data and findings, writing papers and giving advice to governments, have not been sufficiently effective at persuading politicians to act on the climate and ecological emergency. To date, governments' decisions (such as continuing with vast subsidies for fossil fuels) clearly show that powerful vested interests have been much more influential than the amassed scientific knowledge and advice. We argue that in the face of this inaction, scientists can have the maximum amount of influence by lending their support to social movements pressing for action, joining as active participants and considering civil disobedience. Scientists seeking to halt continued environmental destruction also need to work through our institutions. Too many scientific organizations, from national academies of science to learned societies and universities, have not taken practical action on climate; for example, many still partner with fossil fuel and other compromised interests. We therefore also outline a vision for how scientists can reform our scientific institutions to become powerful agents for change.

Adaptive responses to habitat change: Theory and tests with field experiments

Habitat loss and change are often implicated as the primary causes of species extinction. Although any population can be instantly imperiled by catastrophe, most habitat loss occurs gradually, thus enabling affected individuals an adaptive advantage to occupy the best of their dwindling opportunities. I demonstrate how to infer the advantage between two habitats for any density and frequency-dependent strategy of habitat selection. I explore the concept of an Adaptive Dispersal Strategy Landscape to reveal the Evolutionarily Stable Strategy separately for ideal-free and ideal preemptive habitat selectors. Both solutions reveal an initially counterintuitive expectation that individuals living at high density gain insufficient adaptive advantage to disperse from a deteriorating habitat. Adaptive dispersal is constrained at high density because habitats of better quality are fully occupied. I test the theory with measures of movement and foraging in crossover experiments on a seminatural population of meadow voles. The experiment allowed the voles to choose among patches and between enclosures in which I differentially manipulated food and shelter. Although photographs from an infrared camera documented voles venturing from one habitat to the other, none became resident. Voles preferentially foraged in the richer of the two enclosures, even when I reversed treatments, and they foraged more in patches protected by mulched straw. The adaptive advantage of dispersal using a surrogate fitness proxy based on the voles' giving-up densities mirrored that generated by theory. The convergence between theory and experiment yields much-needed insight into our ability to test, predict, and hopefully resolve, the ecological, evolutionary, and conservation consequences of habitat loss.

Towards mechanistic integration of the causes and consequences of biodiversity

The global biodiversity crisis has stimulated decades of research on three themes: species coexistence, biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships (BEF), and biodiversity-ecosystem functional stability relationships (BEFS). However, studies on these themes are largely independent, creating barriers to an integrative understanding of the causes and consequences of biodiversity. Here we review recent progress towards mechanistic integration of coexistence, BEF, and BEFS. Mechanisms underlying the three themes can be linked in various ways, potentially creating either positive or negative relationships between them. That said, we generally expect positive associations between coexistence and BEF, and between BEF and BEFS. Our synthesis represents an initial step towards integrating causes and consequences of biodiversity; future developments should include more mechanistic approaches and broader ecological contexts.

The impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity in global protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) serve as effective means for biodiversity conservation but face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation. Current research on the impact of habitat loss or habitat fragmentation on biodiversity in PAs mostly focuses on individual PA or regional scales. At the global scale, the extent of habitat loss and fragmentation in PAs and their effects on biodiversity remains unclear. Therefore, we investigated the degree of habitat loss and fragmentation in global PAs from 2000 to 2020, analyzed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity in PAs, identified hotspot PAs of severe habitat loss or fragmentation, and highlighted critically endangered species within these PAs. Our study reveals that, between 2000 and 2020, 19 % of global PAs experienced habitat loss, and 34 % experienced habitat fragmentation, with large PAs and South American tropical PAs exhibiting the most severe levels of habitat loss and fragmentation. The impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity was most significant in small PAs and African tropical PAs. There are 10 global hotspot PAs of habitat loss or fragmentation, posing a serious threat to the survival of endangered species within PAs. Biodiversity conservation remains a prominent research focus globally, and the issues of habitat loss and fragmentation in PAs may impact the achievement of the COP15 biodiversity conservation goals. Therefore, this study aims to provide data support and scientific guidance for the management and development of global PAs.

Towards a standardized framework for AI-assisted, image-based monitoring of nocturnal insects

Automated sensors have potential to standardize and expand the monitoring of insects across the globe. As one of the most scalable and fastest developing sensor technologies, we describe a framework for automated, image-based monitoring of nocturnal insects-from sensor development and field deployment to workflows for data processing and publishing. Sensors comprise a light to attract insects, a camera for collecting images and a computer for scheduling, data storage and processing. Metadata is important to describe sampling schedules that balance the capture of relevant ecological information against power and data storage limitations. Large data volumes of images from automated systems necessitate scalable and effective data processing. We describe computer vision approaches for the detection, tracking and classification of insects, including models built from existing aggregations of labelled insect images. Data from automated camera systems necessitate approaches that account for inherent biases. We advocate models that explicitly correct for bias in species occurrence or abundance estimates resulting from the imperfect detection of species or individuals present during sampling occasions. We propose ten priorities towards a step-change in automated monitoring of nocturnal insects, a vital task in the face of rapid biodiversity loss from global threats. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Habitat amount modulates biodiversity responses to fragmentation

Anthropogenic habitat destruction leads to habitat loss and fragmentation, both of which interact to determine how biodiversity changes at the landscape level. While the detrimental effects of habitat loss are clear, there is a long-standing debate about the role of habitat fragmentation per se. We identify the influence of the total habitat amount lost as a modulator of the relationship between habitat fragmentation and biodiversity. Using a simple metacommunity model characterized by colonization-competition (C-C) trade-offs, we show that the magnitude of habitat loss can induce a unimodal response of biodiversity to habitat fragmentation. When habitat loss is low, habitat fragmentation promotes coexistence by suppressing competitively dominant species, while habitat fragmentation at high levels of habitat loss can shape many smaller isolated patches that drive extinctions of superior competitors. While the C-C trade-off is not the only mechanism for biodiversity maintenance, the modulation of habitat fragmentation effects by habitat loss is probably common. Reanalysis of a globally distributed dataset of fragmented animal and plant metacommunities shows an overall pattern that supports this hypothesis, suggesting a resolution to the debate regarding the relative importance of positive versus negative fragmentation effects.

The global contribution of vultures towards ecosystem services and sustainability: An experts' perspective

The ecosystem services framework is essential for biodiversity conservation, emphasizing the role of nature in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study offers a global view on vulture-associated ecosystem services and their SDG contributions, based on insights from 206 experts. The findings reveal global consensus on the importance of vultures in regulation and maintenance services, such as waste recycling and disease control. Cultural services attributed to vultures are moderate and vary regionally. Provisioning services are consistently rated low across all regions. Experts' views on vultures' key ecosystem roles are often biased toward well-known services and may not align with all scientific evidence. The study emphasizes vultures' role in achieving SDGs, particularly impacting life on land and health, and calls for reevaluating their contribution to sustainable practices. It stresses the need to customize conservation to regional values and perceptions, recognizing vultures' critical role in ecological balance, public health, and sustainable development.

eDNA-based survey of the marine vertebrate biodiversity off the west coast of Guadeloupe (French West Indies)

Background

In the marine environment, knowledge of biodiversity remains incomplete for many taxa, requiring assessments to understand and monitor biodiversity loss. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is a powerful tool for monitoring marine biodiversity, as it enables several taxa to be characterised simultaneously in a single sample. However, the data generated by environmental DNA metabarcoding are often not easily reusable. Implementing FAIR principles and standards for eDNA-derived data can facilitate data-sharing within the scientific community.

New information

This study focuses on the detection of marine vertebrate biodiversity using eDNA metabarcoding on the leeward coast of Guadeloupe, a known hotspot for marine biodiversity in the French West Indies. Occurrences and DNA-derived data are shared here using DarwinCore standards combined with MIMARKS standards.

Biodiversity loss impacts top-down regulation of insect herbivores across ecosystem boundaries

Biodiversity loss, as driven by anthropogenic global change, imperils biosphere intactness and integrity. Ecosystem services such as top-down regulation (or biological control; BC) are susceptible to loss of extinction-prone taxa at upper trophic levels and secondary 'support' species e.g., herbivores. Here, drawing upon curated open-access interaction data, we structurally analyze trophic networks centered on the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and assess their robustness to species loss. Tri-partite networks link 80 BC organisms (invertebrate or microbial), 512 lepidopteran hosts and 1194 plants (including 147 cultivated crops) in the Neotropics. These comprise threatened herbaceous or woody plants and conservation flagships such as saturniid moths. Treating all interaction partners functionally equivalent, random herbivore loss exerts a respective 26 % or 108 % higher impact on top-down regulation in crop and non-crop settings than that of BC organisms (at 50 % loss). Equally, random loss of BC organisms affects herbivore regulation to a greater extent (13.8 % at 50 % loss) than herbivore loss mediates their preservation (11.4 %). Yet, under moderate biodiversity loss, (non-pest) herbivores prove highly susceptible to loss of BC organisms. Our topological approach spotlights how agriculturally-subsidized BC agents benefit vegetation restoration, while non-pest herbivores uphold biological control in on- and off-farm settings alike. Our work underlines how the on-farm usage of endemic biological control organisms can advance conservation, restoration, and agricultural sustainability imperatives. We discuss how integrative approaches and close interdisciplinary cooperation can spawn desirable outcomes for science, policy and practice.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Aligning data with decisions to address the biodiversity crisis

The planetary outlook for biodiversity is dire. A new collection of articles discusses the disconnect between the data we have and the data we need for more effective action on conservation, as well as how social justice and end-user viewpoints must be centered to ensure a more sustainable future for our planet.

Global shortfalls in documented actions to conserve biodiversity

Threatened species are by definition species that are in need of assistance. In the absence of suitable conservation interventions, they are likely to disappear soon1. There is limited understanding of how and where conservation interventions are applied globally, or how well they work2,3. Here, using information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and other global databases, we find that for species at risk from three of the biggest drivers of biodiversity loss-habitat loss, overexploitation for international trade and invasive species4-many appear to lack the appropriate types of conservation interventions. Indeed, although there has been substantial recent expansion of the protected area network, we still find that 91% of threatened species have insufficient representation of their habitats within protected areas. Conservation interventions are not implemented uniformly across different taxa and regions and, even when present, have infrequently led to substantial improvements in the status of species. For 58% of the world's threatened terrestrial species, we find conservation interventions to be notably insufficient or absent. We cannot determine whether such species are truly neglected, or whether efforts to recover them are not included in major conservation databases. If they are indeed neglected, the outlook for many of the world's threatened species is grim without more and better targeted action.

Systematic nature positive markets

Environmental markets are a rapidly emerging tool to mobilize private funding to incentivize landholders to undertake more sustainable land management. How units of biodiversity in these markets are measured and subsequently traded creates key challenges ecologically and economically because it determines whether environmental markets can deliver net gains in biodiversity and efficiently lower the costs of conservation. We developed and tested a metric for such markets based on the well-established principle of irreplaceability from systematic conservation planning. Irreplaceability as a metric avoids the limitations of like-for-like trading and allows one to capture the multidimensional nature of ecosystems (e.g., habitats, species, ecosystem functioning) and simultaneously achieve cost-effective, land-manager-led investments in conservation. Using an integrated ecological modeling approach, we tested whether using irreplaceability as a metric is more ecologically and economically beneficial than the simpler biodiversity offset metrics typically used in net gain and no-net-loss policies. Using irreplaceability ensured no net loss, or even net gain, of biodiversity depending on the targets chosen. Other metrics did not provide the same assurances and, depending on the flexibility with which biodiversity targets can be achieved, and how they overlap with development pressure, were less efficient. Irreplaceability reduced the costs of offsetting to developers and the costs of ecological restoration to society. Integrating economic data and systematic conservation planning approaches would therefore assure land managers they were being fairly rewarded for the opportunity costs of conservation and transparently incentivize the most ecologically and economically efficient investments in nature recovery.

Higher trophic levels and species with poorer dispersal traits are more susceptible to habitat loss on island fragments

Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation caused by human activities represent one of the greatest causes of biodiversity loss. However, the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation are not felt equally among species. Here, we examined how habitat loss influenced the diversity and abundance of species from different trophic levels, with different traits, by taking advantage of an inadvertent experiment that created habitat islands from a once continuous forest via the creation of the Thousand Island Lake, a large reservoir in China. On 28 of these islands with more than a 9000-fold difference in their area (0.12-1154 ha), we sampled plants, herbivorous insects, and predatory insects using effort-controlled sampling and analyses. This allowed us to discern whether any observed differences in species diversity were due to passive sampling alone or to demographic effects that disproportionately influenced some species relative to others. We found that while most metrics of sampling effort-controlled diversity increased with island area, the strength of the effect was exacerbated for species in higher trophic levels. When we more explicitly examined differences in species composition among islands, we found that the pairwise difference in species composition among islands was dominated by species turnover but that nestedness increased with differences in island area, indicating that some species are more likely to be absent from smaller islands. Furthermore, by examining trends of several dispersal-related traits of species, we found that species with lower dispersal propensity tended to be those that were lost from smaller islands, which was observed for herbivorous and predatory insects. Our results emphasize the importance of incorporating within-patch demographic effects, as well as the taxa and traits of species when understanding the influence of habitat loss on biodiversity.

An epigenetic toolbox for conservation biologists

Ongoing climatic shifts and increasing anthropogenic pressures demand an efficient delineation of conservation units and accurate predictions of populations' resilience and adaptive potential. Molecular tools involving DNA sequencing are nowadays routinely used for these purposes. Yet, most of the existing tools focusing on sequence-level information have shortcomings in detecting signals of short-term ecological relevance. Epigenetic modifications carry valuable information to better link individuals, populations, and species to their environment. Here, we discuss a series of epigenetic monitoring tools that can be directly applied to various conservation contexts, complementing already existing molecular monitoring frameworks. Focusing on DNA sequence-based methods (e.g. DNA methylation, for which the applications are readily available), we demonstrate how (a) the identification of epi-biomarkers associated with age or infection can facilitate the determination of an individual's health status in wild populations; (b) whole epigenome analyses can identify signatures of selection linked to environmental conditions and facilitate estimating the adaptive potential of populations; and (c) epi-eDNA (epigenetic environmental DNA), an epigenetic-based conservation tool, presents a non-invasive sampling method to monitor biological information beyond the mere presence of individuals. Overall, our framework refines conservation strategies, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of species' adaptive potential and persistence on ecologically relevant timescales.

Fitting individual-based models of spatial population dynamics to long-term monitoring data

Generating spatial predictions of species distribution is a central task for research and policy. Currently, correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) are among the most widely used tools for this purpose. However, a fundamental assumption of cSDMs, that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment, is rarely fulfilled in real data and limits the applicability of cSDMs for dynamic projections. Process-based, dynamic SDMs (dSDMs) promise to overcome these limitations as they explicitly represent transient dynamics and enhance spatiotemporal transferability. Software tools for implementing dSDMs are becoming increasingly available, but their parameter estimation can be complex. Here, we test the feasibility of calibrating and validating a dSDM using long-term monitoring data of Swiss red kites (Milvus milvus). This population has shown strong increases in abundance and a progressive range expansion over the last decades, indicating a nonequilibrium situation. We construct an individual-based model using the RangeShiftR modeling platform and use Bayesian inference for model calibration. This allows the integration of heterogeneous data sources, such as parameter estimates from published literature and observational data from monitoring schemes, with a coherent assessment of parameter uncertainty. Our monitoring data encompass counts of breeding pairs at 267 sites across Switzerland over 22 years. We validate our model using a spatial-block cross-validation scheme and assess predictive performance with a rank-correlation coefficient. Our model showed very good predictive accuracy of spatial projections and represented well the observed population dynamics over the last two decades. Results suggest that reproductive success was a key factor driving the observed range expansion. According to our model, the Swiss red kite population fills large parts of its current range but has potential for further increases in density. We demonstrate the practicality of data integration and validation for dSDMs using RangeShiftR. This approach can improve predictive performance compared to cSDMs. The workflow presented here can be adopted for any population for which some prior knowledge on demographic and dispersal parameters as well as spatiotemporal observations of abundance or presence/absence are available. The fitted model provides improved quantitative insights into the ecology of a species, which can greatly aid conservation and management efforts.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Does increasing forest age lead to greater trade-offs in ecosystem services? A study of a Robinia pseudoacacia artificial forest on the Loess Plateau, China

Artificial forest ecosystems offer various ecosystem services (ES) and help mitigate climate change effects. Trade-offs or synergies exist among ES in artificial forests. Although forest age influences ES and ecosystem processes, the long-term dynamics of trade-offs among ES in artificial forests and during vegetation restorations remain unclear, complicating vegetation and sustainable management. We studied a Robinia pseudoacacia plantation on the Loess Plateau, China, with a restoration time of 10-44 years. The entropy weight method was used to assess five ES (carbon sequestration, water conservation, soil conservation, understory plant diversity, and runoff and sediment reduction) and investigate how ES change with forest age. The root mean square deviation (RMSD) was used to quantify the trade-offs among ES, and redundancy analysis (RDA) analysis was used to identify the key factors influencing the ES and trade-offs. The results showed that (1) as forest age increased, ES scores initially increased and then decreased. The optimal range for ES values was observed during the middle-aged to mature stages of the forest. (2) Before reaching maturity, the planted forests primarily delivered services related to water conservation and runoff and sediment reduction. (3) In young forests, ES showed a synergistic relationship (RMSD = 0.06), whereas trade-offs occurred in forests at other ages. The largest trade-off was observed in middle-aged forests. (4) The ES pairs with the dominant trade-offs in planted forests differed at different forest age stages. The largest trade-off occurred between carbon sequestration and water conservation (RMSD = 0.28). RDA analysis showed that understory vegetation coverage had a positive correlation with all ES. The ES indicators that significantly (P < 0.001) affected the water‑carbon trade-off were tree carbon storage, soil organic carbon storage, soil total nitrogen, and soil total phosphorus. Thus, the water and carbon relationship must be balanced, and the key factors affecting ES trade-offs in forest management must be regulated to support ES multifunctionality.

Nature and human well-being: The olfactory pathway

The world is undergoing massive atmospheric and ecological change, driving unprecedented challenges to human well-being. Olfaction is a key sensory system through which these impacts occur. The sense of smell influences quality of and satisfaction with life, emotion, emotion regulation, cognitive function, social interactions, dietary choices, stress, and depressive symptoms. Exposures via the olfactory pathway can also lead to (anti-)inflammatory outcomes. Increased understanding is needed regarding the ways in which odorants generated by nature (i.e., natural olfactory environments) affect human well-being. With perspectives from a range of health, social, and natural sciences, we provide an overview of this unique sensory system, four consensus statements regarding olfaction and the environment, and a conceptual framework that integrates the olfactory pathway into an understanding of the effects of natural environments on human well-being. We then discuss how this framework can contribute to better accounting of the impacts of policy and land-use decision-making on natural olfactory environments and, in turn, on planetary health.

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration-Scientific Transculturalism-recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

Trophic rewilding as a restoration approach under emerging novel biosphere conditions

Rewilding is a restoration approach that aims to promote self-regulating complex ecosystems by restoring non-human ecological processes while reducing human control and pressures. Rewilding is forward-looking in that it aims to enhance functionality for biodiversity, accepting and indeed promoting the dynamic nature of ecosystems, rather than fixating on static composition or structure. Rewilding is thus especially relevant in our epoch of increasingly novel biosphere conditions, driven by strong human-induced global change. Here, we explore this hypothesis in the context of trophic rewilding - the restoration of trophic complexity mediated by wild, large-bodied animals, known as 'megafauna'. This focus reflects the strong ecological impacts of large-bodied animals, their widespread loss during the last 50,000 years and their high diversity and ubiquity in the preceding 50 million years. Restoring abundant, diverse, wild-living megafauna is expected to promote vegetation heterogeneity, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling and biotic microhabitats. These are fundamental drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem function and are likely to gain importance for maintaining a biodiverse biosphere under increasingly novel ecological conditions. Non-native megafauna species may contribute to these effects as ecological surrogates of extinct species or by promoting ecological functionality within novel assemblages. Trophic rewilding has strong upscaling potential via population growth and expansion of wild fauna. It is likely to facilitate biotic adaptation to changing climatic conditions and resilience to ecosystem collapse, and to curb some negative impacts of globalization, notably the dominance of invasive alien plants. Finally, we discuss the complexities of realizing the biodiversity benefits that trophic rewilding offers under novel biosphere conditions in a heavily populated world.

Collaboration and engagement with decision-makers are needed to reduce evidence complacency in wildlife management

There exists an extensive, diverse, and robust evidence base to support complex decisions that address the planetary biodiversity crisis. However, it is generally not sought or used by environmental decision-makers, who instead draw on intuition, experience, or opinion to inform important decisions. Thus, there is a need to examine evidence exchange processes in wildlife management to understand the multiple inputs to decisions. Here, we adopt a novel approach, fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM), to examine perceptions of individuals from Indigenous and Western governments on the reliability of evidence which may influence freshwater fisheries management decisions in British Columbia, Canada. We facilitated four FCM workshops participants representing Indigenous or Western regulatory/governance groups of fisheries managers. Our results show that flows of evidence to decision-makers occur within a relatively closed governance network, constrained to the few well-connected decision-making organizations (i.e., wildlife management agencies) and their close partners. This implies that increased collaboration (i.e., knowledge co-production) and engagement (i.e., knowledge brokerage) with wildlife managers and decision-makers are needed to produce actionable evidence and increase evidence exchange.

Mammal responses to global changes in human activity vary by trophic group and landscape

Wildlife must adapt to human presence to survive in the Anthropocene, so it is critical to understand species responses to humans in different contexts. We used camera trapping as a lens to view mammal responses to changes in human activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across 163 species sampled in 102 projects around the world, changes in the amount and timing of animal activity varied widely. Under higher human activity, mammals were less active in undeveloped areas but unexpectedly more active in developed areas while exhibiting greater nocturnality. Carnivores were most sensitive, showing the strongest decreases in activity and greatest increases in nocturnality. Wildlife managers must consider how habituation and uneven sensitivity across species may cause fundamental differences in human-wildlife interactions along gradients of human influence.

Cost-effort analysis of Baited Remote Underwater Video (BRUV) and environmental DNA (eDNA) in monitoring marine ecological communities

Monitoring the diversity and distribution of species in an ecosystem is essential to assess the success of restoration strategies. Implementing biomonitoring methods, which provide a comprehensive assessment of species diversity and mitigate biases in data collection, holds significant importance in biodiversity research. Additionally, ensuring that these methods are cost-efficient and require minimal effort is crucial for effective environmental monitoring. In this study we compare the efficiency of species detection, the cost and the effort of two non-destructive sampling techniques: Baited Remote Underwater Video (BRUV) and environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to survey marine vertebrate species. Comparisons were conducted along the Sussex coast upon the introduction of the Nearshore Trawling Byelaw. This Byelaw aims to boost the recovery of the dense kelp beds and the associated biodiversity that existed in the 1980s. We show that overall BRUV surveys are more affordable than eDNA, however, eDNA detects almost three times as many species as BRUV. eDNA and BRUV surveys are comparable in terms of effort required for each method, unless eDNA analysis is carried out externally, in which case eDNA requires less effort for the lead researchers. Furthermore, we show that increased eDNA replication yields more informative results on community structure. We found that using both methods in conjunction provides a more complete view of biodiversity, with BRUV data supplementing eDNA monitoring by recording species missed by eDNA and by providing additional environmental and life history metrics. The results from this study will serve as a baseline of the marine vertebrate community in Sussex Bay allowing future biodiversity monitoring research projects to understand community structure as the ecosystem recovers following the removal of trawling fishing pressure. Although this study was regional, the findings presented herein have relevance to marine biodiversity and conservation monitoring programs around the globe.

The positive impact of conservation action

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Fungal, but not bacterial, diversity and network complexity promote network stability during roadside slope restoration

To restore degraded roadside ecosystems, conventional methods such as revegetation and soil amendment are frequently employed. However, our understanding of the long-term effects of these restoration approaches on soil microbial diversity and network complexity across different vegetation types remains poor, which contributes to poor restoration outcomes. In this study, we explored the effects of roadside slope restoration on microbial communities across different vegetation types at varying stages of restoration. We found that restoration time had a more pronounced impact on microbial diversity than specific vegetation type. As restoration progressed, microbial network complexity and fungal diversity increased, but bacterial diversity declined, suggesting that keystone taxa may contribute to network complexity. Interestingly, bacterial network complexity increased concomitant with decreasing network modularity and robustness, which may compromise system stability. Distinct vegetation types were associated with restoration-sensitive microbial communities at different restoration stages. Leguminouse and nitrogen-fixing plants, such as Albiziak alkora, Ginkgo biloba, Rhus chinensis, Rhapis excels, and Rubia cordifolia exhibited such associations after five years of restoration. These keystone taxa included Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, Gemmatimonadota, and Myxococcota. We also found that bacterial alpha diversity was significantly correlated with restoration time, soil pH, moisture, available phosphate, nitrate nitrogen, and plant height, while fungal diversity was primarily shaped by restoration time. Together, our findings suggest that soil properties, environmental factors, vegetation type, and dominant species can be manipulated to guide the trajectory of ecological recovery by regulating the abundance of certain microbial taxa.

Lethal combats in the forest among wild western gorillas

Lethal intergroup encounters occur in many species because of sexual selection. While documented in mountain gorillas, they are absent in western gorillas as, instead, it is predicted by their higher feeding (frugivory) and mate competition (single-vs. multi-male groups). We investigate whether the injuries on three dead silverbacks and one adult female from four groups of western gorillas in the Central African Republic, resulted from interactions with gorillas or leopards. We identified two distinct injury patterns caused by gorillas (isolated lacerations, round wounds) and leopards (punctures clustered on head/neck) by analyzing injuries caused by mountain gorillas and leopards to gorillas and non-gorilla species, respectively. The western gorilla injury pattern is similar to that of mountain gorillas suggesting that lethal encounters occur, albeit infrequently, as predicted by sexual selection in a one-male society. While sexual dimorphism and polygynous sociality favored the evolution of violent encounters, multiple males in groups may influence their frequency.

Engaging internal and external audiences to develop and promote zoo-based conservation efforts

As place-based conservation organizations, zoos are in a central position to support individuals in making small changes in their lives that will support the protection of wildlife and their habitats. This paper describes the secondary analysis of data collected from multi-phase front-end, exploratory evaluation that informed the development of a conservation action campaign in association with a non-profit, urban zoo. In phase one, internal organization staff were invited to attend workshops during which they brainstormed potential conservation actions that they felt were important for the zoo to promote. They identified and ranked 164 unique actions. In phase two, the ranking was used to narrow down the 164 actions to 20 actions which were used to develop a survey administered to visitors who opted in to receiving online surveys from the zoo. The survey asked participants to state their interest in each of the 20 conservation actions. The Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change informed the analysis of responses. Through this approach we identified actions that people were already doing, interested in doing, and not interested in doing. The responses from this survey were used to narrow down the list further to 10 actions used in a survey in phase three. This second survey administered to zoo visitors on grounds asked participants which of the 10 actions they would be most interested in doing, and the perceived barriers and benefits of doing them. This process allowed us to use evidence-based decision making to choose which conservation actions would resonate most with the community for our conservation action campaign. We also were able to identify values visitors held that might influence environmentally friendly behaviors. Visitors who responded to this survey tended to respond in ways that aligned with self-transcendent values. The research suggests that the campaign should focus on habitat restoration and remediation and purchasing wildlife friendly coffee and other products.

Collecting baleen whale blow samples by drone: A minimally intrusive tool for conservation genetics

In coastal British Columbia, Canada, marine megafauna such as humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus velifera) have been subject to a history of exploitation and near extirpation. While their populations have been in recovery, significant threats are posed to these vulnerable species by proposed natural resource ventures in this region, in addition to the compounding effects of anthropogenic climate change. Genetic tools play a vital role in informing conservation efforts, but the associated collection of tissue biopsy samples can be challenging for the investigators and disruptive to the ongoing behaviour of the targeted whales. Here, we evaluate a minimally intrusive approach based on collecting exhaled breath condensate, or respiratory 'blow' samples, from baleen whales using an unoccupied aerial system (UAS), within Gitga'at First Nation territory for conservation genetics. Minimal behavioural responses to the sampling technique were observed, with no response detected 87% of the time (of 112 UAS deployments). DNA from whale blow (n = 88 samples) was extracted, and DNA profiles consisting of 10 nuclear microsatellite loci, sex identification and mitochondrial (mt) DNA haplotypes were constructed. An average of 7.5 microsatellite loci per individual were successfully genotyped. The success rates for mtDNA and sex assignment were 80% and 89% respectively. Thus, this minimally intrusive sampling method can be used to describe genetic diversity and generate genetic profiles for individual identification. The results of this research demonstrate the potential of UAS-collected whale blow for conservation genetics from a remote location.

Biodiversity-production feedback effects lead to intensification traps in agricultural landscapes

Intensive agriculture with high reliance on pesticides and fertilizers constitutes a major strategy for 'feeding the world'. However, such conventional intensification is linked to diminishing returns and can result in 'intensification traps'-production declines triggered by the negative feedback of biodiversity loss at high input levels. Here we developed a novel framework that accounts for biodiversity feedback on crop yields to evaluate the risk and magnitude of intensification traps. Simulations grounded in systematic literature reviews showed that intensification traps emerge in most landscape types, but to a lesser extent in major cereal production systems. Furthermore, small reductions in maximal production (5-10%) could be frequently transmitted into substantial biodiversity gains, resulting in small-loss large-gain trade-offs prevailing across landscape types. However, sensitivity analyses revealed a strong context dependence of trap emergence, inducing substantial uncertainty in the identification of optimal management at the field scale. Hence, we recommend the development of case-specific safety margins for intensification preventing double losses in biodiversity and food security associated with intensification traps.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Estimation and interpretation problems and solutions when using proportion covariates in linear regression models

Proportion variables, also known as compositional data, are very common in ecology. Unfortunately, few scientists are aware of how compositional data, when used as covariates, can adversely impact statistical analysis. We describe here how proportion covariates result in multicollinearity and parameter identifiability problems. Using simulated data on bird species richness as a function of land use, we show how these problems manifest when fitting a wide range of models in R, both in a frequentist and Bayesian framework. In particular, we show that similar models can often generate substantially different parameter estimates, leading to very different conclusions. Dropping a covariate or the intercept from the model can solve the multicollinearity and parameter identifiability problems. Unfortunately, these solutions do not fix the inherent challenges associated with interpreting parameter estimates. To this end, we propose focusing the interpretation on the difference of slope parameters to avoid the inherent unidentifiability of individual parameters. We also propose conditional plots with two x-axes and marginal plots as visualization techniques that can help users better interpret their modeling results. We illustrate these problems and proposed solutions using empirical data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The practical and straightforward approaches suggested in this article will help the fitting of linear models and interpretation of its results when some of the covariates are proportions.

Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation

More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

Coupling effect of key factors on ecosystem services in border areas: a study of the Pu'er region, Southwestern China

The coupling effects created by transboundary and local factors on ecosystem services are often difficult to determine. This poses great challenges for ecosystem protection and management in border areas. To decrease uncertainty, it is crucial to quantify and spatialize the impact multiple factors have on ecosystem services within different scenarios. In this study, we identified key transboundary and local factors from a set of 15 sorted factors related to four main ecosystem services. We employed a Bayesian Network-Geographic Information System (BN-GIS) model to simulate 90 scenarios with multiple factors combinations, quantifying and spatializing the coupling effects on the main ecosystem services. These simulations were conducted in the Pu'er region, which is situated alongside three countries, and serves as a representative border area in southwest China. The results showed that: (1) The coupling effects of multiple factors yield significant variations when combined in different scenarios. Managers can optimize ecosystem services by strategically regulating factors within specific areas through the acquisition of various probabilistic distributions and combinations of key factors in positive coupling effect scenarios. The outcome is a positive coupling effect. (2) Among the four main ecosystem services in the Pu'er region, food availability and biodiversity were affected by key transboundary and local factors. This suggests that the coupling of transboundary and local factors is more likely to have a significant impact on these two ecosystem services. Of the 45 combination scenarios on food availability, the majority exhibit a negative coupling effect. In contrast, among the 45 combination scenarios on biodiversity, most scenarios have a positive coupling effect. This indicates that food availability is at a higher risk of being influenced by the coupling effects of multiple factors, while biodiversity faces a lower risk. (3) Transboundary pests & diseases, application of pesticides, fertilizer & filming , population density, and land use were the key factors affecting food availability. Bio-invasion, the normalized differential vegetation index, precipitation, and the landscape contagion index were the key factors affecting biodiversity. In this case, focusing on preventing transboundary factors such as transboundary pests & disease and bio-invasion should be the goal. (4) Attention should also be paid to the conditions under which these transboundary factors combine with local factors. In the areas where these negative coupling effects occur, enhanced monitoring of both transboundary and local factors is essential to prevent adverse effects.

Demographic shrinkage promotes ecosystem services supply capacity in the karst desertification control

Although ecological services have been improved in karst desertification control areas, it is still unclear how population shrinkage affects ecosystem service supply capability through ecological assets. In this study, Theil-Sen median, regression analysis, and variance partitioning were applied to explore the linkages of population change (observed data and shared socioeconomic pathways 1-representative concentration pathways 2.6), ecological asset composition (land use), quality (Normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and tree height), and ecosystem services in different periods (population growth and decline periods). The results showed that the population change during the growth period (2000-2038) was dominated by migration patterns. In degraded ecoregions (karst desertification) dominated by population out-migration, the net expansion of forest was 15.88 % during 2000-2020, NDVI and tree height increased by 0.57 % and 54.96 %, and ecosystem service supply capability increased by 2.68 %. In contrast, in non-degraded ecoregions (non-karst and karst non-desertification) with population in-migration, change rates of forest (-5.40 % and - 23.68 %), NDVI (0.49 % and 0.53 %), tree height (-8.35 % and - 31.25 %), and ecosystem service supply capability (2.04 % and 2.18 %) were apparently lower than degraded ecoregions. During the population decline period (2039-2100), although the migration pattern between two regions during the growth period was replaced by a population drop within a single region, the positive correlation between population shrinkage with ecological assets and service supply capability was still followed. Overall, the study found that both ways of population shrinkage that involve out-migration and decline can alleviate the land pressure of degraded ecoregions, which enhances ecosystem service supply capability by regulating ecological assets.

Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing

Introduction

The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising.

Methods

We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change.

Results

These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health.

Conclusion

Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.

Detecting management gaps for biodiversity conservation: An integrated assessment

The latest report on the state of nature in Europe (2013-2018) shows that biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate, with most protected species and habitats in poor condition. Despite an increasing volume of collected biodiversity information, urgent action is needed to integrate biodiversity data and knowledge to improve conservation efforts. We conducted a study in Catalonia (NE Spain), where we collected management measures implemented between 2013 and 2018, including allocation, budget, pressures aimed, and habitats/species potentially benefiting. We integrated information on pressures and habitats/species with the measures to identify non-spatial management gaps. Then, we integrated the spatially explicit information to determine the spatial management gap, identifying geographical areas where species/habitats are under pressure without registered measures. We demonstrated the importance of integrating existing information. Our findings revealed that resources were often not distributed adequately across species/habitats, with biases towards certain taxa being a common issue. The non-spatial management gap analysis identified taxonomic groups, especially plants and mollusks with the wider management gaps. We also identified threatened areas, especially in the northeast of the region with the larger spatial management gaps. These results could guide priority objectives to optimize conservation efforts. Integrating different information sources provided a broader view of the challenges that conservation science is facing nowadays. Our study offers a path toward bending the curve of biodiversity loss by providing an integrative framework that could optimize the use of the available information and help narrow the knowing-doing gap. In the context of the EU, this example demonstrates how information can be used to promote some environmental policy instruments, such as the Prioritized Action Frameworks (PAFs). Additionally, our findings highlight the importance of supporting decision-making with systematic assessments to identify deficiencies in the conservation process, reduce the loss of critical ecosystems and species, and avoid biases among taxa.

Bridging the gap between movement data and connectivity analysis using the Time-Explicit Habitat Selection (TEHS) model

BACKGROUND

Understanding how to connect habitat remnants to facilitate the movement of species is a critical task in an increasingly fragmented world impacted by human activities. The identification of dispersal routes and corridors through connectivity analysis requires measures of landscape resistance but there has been no consensus on how to calculate resistance from habitat characteristics, potentially leading to very different connectivity outcomes.

METHODS

We propose a new model, called the Time-Explicit Habitat Selection (TEHS) model, that can be directly used for connectivity analysis. The TEHS model decomposes the movement process in a principled approach into a time and a selection component, providing complementary information regarding space use by separately assessing the drivers of time to traverse the landscape and the drivers of habitat selection. These models are illustrated using GPS-tracking data from giant anteaters (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil.

RESULTS

The time model revealed that the fastest movements tended to occur between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m., suggesting a crepuscular/nocturnal behavior. Giant anteaters moved faster over wetlands while moving much slower over forests and savannas, in comparison to grasslands. We also found that wetlands were consistently avoided whereas forest and savannas tended to be selected. Importantly, this model revealed that selection for forest increased with temperature, suggesting that forests may act as important thermal shelters when temperatures are high. Finally, using the spatial absorbing Markov chain framework, we show that the TEHS model results can be used to simulate movement and connectivity within a fragmented landscape, revealing that giant anteaters will often not use the shortest-distance path to the destination patch due to avoidance of certain habitats.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed approach can be used to characterize how landscape features are perceived by individuals through the decomposition of movement patterns into a time and a habitat selection component. Additionally, this framework can help bridge the gap between movement-based models and connectivity analysis, enabling the generation of time-explicit connectivity results.

Assessing habitat connectivity of rare species to inform urban conservation planning

Urbanization is commonly associated with biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation. However, urban environments often have greenspaces that can support wildlife populations, including rare species. The challenge for conservation planners working in these systems is identifying priority habitats and corridors for protection before they are lost. In a rapidly changing urban environment, this requires prompt decisions informed by accurate spatial information. Here, we combine several approaches to map habitat and assess connectivity for a diverse set of rare species in seven urban study areas across southern Michigan, USA. We incorporated multiple connectivity tools for a comprehensive appraisal of species-habitat patterns across these urban landscapes. We observed distinct differences in connectivity by taxonomic group and site. The three turtle species (Blanding's, Eastern Box, and Spotted) consistently had more habitat predicted to be suitable per site than other evaluated species. This is promising for this at-risk taxonomic group and allows conservation efforts to focus on mitigating threats such as road mortality. Grassland and prairie-associated species (American Bumble Bee, Black and Gold Bumble Bee, and Henslow's Sparrow) had the least amount of habitat on a site-by-site basis. Kalamazoo and the northern Detroit sites had the highest levels of multi-species connectivity across the entire study area based on the least cost paths. These connectivity results have direct applications in urban planning. Kalamazoo, one of the focal urban regions, has implemented a Natural Features Protection (NFP) plan to bolster natural area protections within the city. We compared our connectivity results to the NFP area and show where this plan will have an immediate positive impact and additional areas for potential consideration in future expansions of the protection network. Our results show that conservation opportunities exist within each of the assessed urban areas for maintaining rare species, a key benefit of this multi-species and multi-site approach.

Novel community data in ecology-properties and prospects

New technologies for monitoring biodiversity such as environmental (e)DNA, passive acoustic monitoring, and optical sensors promise to generate automated spatiotemporal community observations at unprecedented scales and resolutions. Here, we introduce 'novel community data' as an umbrella term for these data. We review the emerging field around novel community data, focusing on new ecological questions that could be addressed; the analytical tools available or needed to make best use of these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation. We conclude that novel community data offer many opportunities to advance our understanding of fundamental ecological processes, including community assembly, biotic interactions, micro- and macroevolution, and overall ecosystem functioning.