Diverging trends and drivers of Arctic flower production in Greenland over space and time

The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate. While changes in plant community composition and phenology have been extensively reported, the effects of climate change on reproduction remain poorly understood. We quantified multidecadal changes in flower density for nine tundra plant species at a low- and a high-Arctic site in Greenland. We found substantial changes in flower density over time, but the temporal trends and drivers of flower density differed both between species and sites. Total flower density increased over time at the low-Arctic site, whereas the high-Arctic site showed no directional change. Within and between sites, the direction and rate of change differed among species, with varying effects of summer temperature, the temperature of the previous autumn and the timing of snowmelt. Finally, all species showed a strong trade-off in flower densities between successive years, suggesting an effective cost of reproduction. Overall, our results reveal region- and taxon-specific variation in the sensitivity and responses of co-occurring species to shared climatic drivers, and a clear cost of reproductive investment among Arctic plants. The ultimate effects of further changes in climate may thus be decoupled between species and across space, with critical knock-on effects on plant species dynamics, food web structure and overall ecosystem functioning.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00300-023-03164-2.

Experimentally increased snow depth affects high Arctic microarthropods inconsistently over two consecutive winters

Climate change induced alterations to winter conditions may affect decomposer organisms controlling the vast carbon stores in northern soils. Soil microarthropods are particularly abundant decomposers in Arctic ecosystems. We studied whether increased snow depth affected microarthropods, and if effects were consistent over two consecutive winters. We sampled Collembola and soil mites from a snow accumulation experiment at Svalbard in early summer and used soil microclimatic data to explore to which aspects of winter climate microarthropods are most sensitive. Community densities differed substantially between years and increased snow depth had inconsistent effects. Deeper snow hardly affected microarthropods in 2015, but decreased densities and altered relative abundances of microarthropods and Collembola species after a milder winter in 2016. Although increased snow depth increased soil temperatures by 3.2 °C throughout the snow cover periods, the best microclimatic predictors of microarthropod density changes were spring soil temperature and snowmelt day. Our study shows that extrapolation of observations of decomposer responses to altered winter climate conditions to future scenarios should be avoided when communities are only sampled on a single occasion, since effects of longer-term gradual changes in winter climate may be obscured by inter-annual weather variability and natural variability in population sizes.

Sustained population decline of rodents is linked to accelerated climate warming and human disturbance

Background

During the past three decades, sustained population decline or disappearance of cycles in small rodents have been observed. Both anthropogenic disturbance and climate warming are likely to be potential drivers of population decline, but quantitative analysis on their distinct effects is still lacking.

Results

Using time series monitoring of 115 populations (80 populations from 18 known rodent species, 35 mixed populations from unknown species) from 1980 in China (spanning 20–33 yrs), we analyzed association of human disturbances and climate warming with population dynamics of these rodent species. We found 54 of 115 populations showed a decreasing trend since 1980, and 16 of 115 showed an increasing trend. Human disturbances and climate warming showed significant positive associations with the population declines of most rodent species, and the population declines were more pronounced in habitats with more intensified human disturbance such as cities and farmlands or in high-latitude regions which experienced more increase of temperature.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that the large-scale sustained population decline of small mammals in various ecosystems driven by the rapid increase of both climate warming and human disturbance is likely a signal of ecosystem dysfunction or transition. There is an urgent need to assess the risks of accelerated climate warming and human disturbance imposes on our ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02056-z.

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.

Ecological responses to variation in seasonal snow cover

Seasonal snow is among the most important factors governing the ecology of many terrestrial ecosystems, but rising global temperatures are changing snow regimes and driving widespread declines in the depth and duration of snow cover. Loss of the insulating snow layer will fundamentally change the environment. Understanding how individuals, populations, and communities respond to different snow conditions is thus essential for predicting and managing future ecosystem change. We synthesized 365 studies that examined ecological responses to variation in winter snow conditions. This research encompasses a broad range of methods (experimental manipulations, measurement of natural snow gradients, and long-term monitoring), locations (35 countries), study organisms (plants, mammals, arthropods, birds, fish, lichen, and fungi), and response measures. Earlier snowmelt was consistently associated with advanced spring phenology in plants, mammals, and arthropods. Reduced snow depth often increased mortality or physical injury in plants, although there were few clear effects on animals. Neither snow depth nor snowmelt timing had clear or consistent directional effects on body size of animals or biomass of plants. However, because 96% of studies were from the northern hemisphere, the generality of these trends across ecosystems and localities is also unclear. We identified substantial research gaps for several taxonomic groups and response types; research on wintertime responses was notably scarce. Future research should prioritize examination of the mechanisms underlying responses to changing snow conditions and the consequences of those responses for seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.

A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO₂ concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.

Annual Cycle of Mat-Forming Filamentous Alga Tribonema cf. minus (Stramenopiles, Xanthophyceae) in Hydro-Terrestrial Habitats in the High Arctic Revealed By Multiparameter Fluorescent Staining

The filamentous microalga Tribonema sp. (Stramenopiles, Xanthophyceae) plays an important role in shallow water polar (streams and seepages) and seasonally cold habitats in temperate regions (ponds). In these habitats, freezing and desiccation, and thus freeze-thawing and drying-rewetting cycles, are frequent. These regions produce visible biomass and are important components of low temperature-adapted communities. We characterized the annual cycles of a Tribonema cf. minus population in two habitats (seepage and stream) in the High Arctic, Svalbard. Seasonality, locality, and their combination (particularly changing environmental conditions) together with cultivation conditions of strains significantly affected their morphological characteristics. Morphological changes following hardening processes related to preparation for the winter period (transition from vegetative cells to akinete and/or pre-akinete) were recorded. Over the year, positive water temperatures (warmest 13.3°C) occurred for 5 months while negative (lowest temperature was -17.4°C) lasted for 7 months. In winter, there were two melt periods. Vitality staining protocol showed a high number of viable (77.4% and 53.8%) and dormant cells (1.7% and 4.1%; capable of growth and reproduction once suitable conditions return) in the winter seepage and stream, respectively. NPQ and OJIP chlorophyll fluorescence parameters revealed several hours recovery of photosynthesis (both field and control samples). During recovery, only minor or mild stress on photosynthesis was detected. F_V /F_M values (the photosynthetic efficiency of photosystem II in a dark-adapted state) in all field and control samples varied around 0.4. Tribonema cf. minus is capable of surviving winter Arctic conditions (perennial strategy).

Habitat selection by Dall's sheep is influenced by multiple factors including direct and indirect climate effects

Arctic and boreal environments are changing rapidly, which could decouple behavioral and demographic traits of animals from the resource pulses that have shaped their evolution. Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in northwestern regions of the USA and Canada, survive long, severe winters and reproduce during summers with short growing seasons. We sought to understand the vulnerability of Dall's sheep to a changing climate in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA. We developed ecological hypotheses about nutritional needs, security from predators, energetic costs of movement, and thermal shelter to describe habitat selection during winter, spring, and summer and evaluated habitat and climate variables that reflected these hypotheses. We used the synoptic model of animal space use to estimate parameters of habitat selection by individual females and calculated likelihoods for ecological hypotheses within seasonal models. Our results showed that seasonal habitat selection was influenced by multiple ecological requirements simultaneously. Across all seasons, sheep selected steep rugged areas near escape terrain for security from predators. During winter and spring, sheep selected habitats with increased forage and security, moderated thermal conditions, and lowered energetic costs of movement. During summer, nutritional needs and security influenced habitat selection. Climate directly influenced habitat selection during the spring lambing period when sheep selected areas with lower snow depths, less snow cover, and higher air temperatures. Indirectly, climate is linked to the expansion of shrub/scrub vegetation, which was significantly avoided in all seasons. Dall's sheep balance resource selection to meet multiple needs across seasons and such behaviors are finely tuned to patterns of phenology and climate. Direct and indirect effects of a changing climate may reduce their ability to balance their needs and lead to continued population declines. However, several management approaches could promote resiliency of alpine habitats that support Dall's sheep populations.

Seasonal influence of snow conditions on Dall's sheep productivity in Wrangell-St Elias National Park and Preserve

Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) are endemic to alpine areas of sub-Arctic and Arctic northwest America and are an ungulate species of high economic and cultural importance. Populations have historically experienced large fluctuations in size, and studies have linked population declines to decreased productivity as a consequence of late-spring snow cover. However, it is not known how the seasonality of snow accumulation and characteristics such as depth and density may affect Dall's sheep productivity. We examined relationships between snow and climate conditions and summer lamb production in Wrangell-St Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska over a 37-year study period. To produce covariates pertaining to the quality of the snowpack, a spatially-explicit snow evolution model was forced with meteorological data from a gridded climate re-analysis from 1980 to 2017 and calibrated with ground-based snow surveys and validated by snow depth data from remote cameras. The best calibrated model produced an RMSE of 0.08 m (bias 0.06 m) for snow depth compared to the remote camera data. Observed lamb-to-ewe ratios from 19 summers of survey data were regressed against seasonally aggregated modelled snow and climate properties from the preceding snow season. We found that a multiple regression model of fall snow depth and fall air temperature explained 41% of the variance in lamb-to-ewe ratios (R2 = .41, F(2,38) = 14.89, p<0.001), with decreased lamb production following deep snow conditions and colder fall temperatures. Our results suggest the early establishment and persistence of challenging snow conditions is more important than snow conditions immediately prior to and during lambing. These findings may help wildlife managers to better anticipate Dall's sheep recruitment dynamics.

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Annual Cycle of Freshwater Diatoms in the High Arctic Revealed by Multiparameter Fluorescent Staining

Diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) are important primary producers in a wide range of hydro-terrestrial habitats in polar regions that are characterized by many extreme environmental conditions. Nevertheless, how they survive periods of drought and/or freeze remains unknown. A general strategy of microorganisms to overcome adverse conditions is dormancy, but morphologically distinct diatom resting stages are rare. This study aimed to evaluate the annual cycle of freshwater diatoms in the High Arctic (Central Spitsbergen) and provide an insight into their physiological cell status variability. The diversity and viability of diatom cells were studied in samples collected five times at four study sites, tracing the key events for survival (summer vegetative season, autumn dry-freezing, winter freezing, spring melting, summer vegetative season [again]). For viability evaluation, a multiparameter fluorescent staining was used in combination with light microscopy and allowed to reveal the physiological status at a single-cell level. The proportions of the cell categories were seasonally and locality dependent. The results suggested that a significant portion of vegetative cells survive winter and provide an inoculum for the following vegetative season. The ice thickness significantly influenced spring survival. The thicker the ice layer was, the more dead cells and fewer other stages were observed. The influence of the average week max-min temperature differences in autumn and winter was not proven.

Circumpolar terrestrial arthropod monitoring: A review of ongoing activities, opportunities and challenges, with a focus on spiders

The terrestrial chapter of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) has the potential to bring international multi-taxon, long-term monitoring together, but detailed fundamental species information for Arctic arthropods lags far behind that for vertebrates and plants. In this paper, we demonstrate this major challenge to the CBMP by focussing on spiders (Order: Araneae) as an example group. We collate available circumpolar data on the distribution of spiders and highlight the current monitoring opportunities and identify the key knowledge gaps to address before monitoring can become efficient. We found spider data to be more complete than data for other taxa, but still variable in quality and availability between Arctic regions, highlighting the need for greater international co-operation for baseline studies and data sharing. There is also a dearth of long-term datasets for spiders and other arthropod groups from which to assess status and trends of biodiversity. Therefore, baseline studies should be conducted at all monitoring stations and we make recommendations for the development of the CBMP in relation to terrestrial arthropods more generally.

Surviving the Antarctic winter-Life Stage Cold Tolerance and Ice Entrapment Survival in The Invasive Chironomid Midge Eretmoptera murphyi

An insect’s ability to tolerate winter conditions is a critical determinant of its success. This is true for both native and invasive species, and especially so in harsh polar environments. The midge Eretmoptera murphyi (Diptera, Chironomidae) is invasive to maritime Antarctic Signy Island, and the ability of fourth instar larvae to tolerate freezing is hypothesized to allow the species to extend its range further south. However, no detailed assessment of stress tolerance in any other life stage has yet been conducted. Here, we report that, although larvae, pupae and adults all have supercooling points (SCPs) of around −5 °C, only the larvae are freeze-tolerant, and that cold-hardiness increases with larval maturity. Eggs are freeze-avoiding and have an SCP of around −17 °C. At −3.34 °C, the CT_min activity thresholds of adults are close to their SCP of −5 °C, and they are likely chill-susceptible. Larvae could not withstand the anoxic conditions of ice entrapment or submergence in water beyond 28 d. The data obtained here indicate that the cold-tolerance characteristics of this invasive midge would permit it to colonize areas further south, including much of the western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula.

Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change - Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?

Warmer winters may lead to changes in the hibernation behaviour of bats, such as the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus, which prefers to hibernate at low temperatures. The species is also known for its large annual fluctuations in the number of wintering individuals, so inference about population trends should be based on long-term data. Prior to 2005, analyses indicated stable or even increasing barbastelle population in Poland. We analysed the results of 13 winter bat counts (2005–2017) of the species from 15 of the largest hibernacula, and additional site of 47 small bunkers, in Poland. The total number of wintering individuals remained stable during the study period, because the barbastelle is not a long-distance migrant, this likely reflects the national population trend. On the basis of mean winter air temperatures we divided the country into four thermal regions. Analyses of barbastelle abundance in hibernacula in the four regions revealed a 4.8% annual mean increase in numbers in the coldest region, where mean winter temperatures were below -2°C, annual mean declines of 3.3% and 3.1% in two warmer regions of western Poland, but no trend in the region of intermediate mean winter temperatures of between -1°C and -2°C. Overall, there was a significant, but weak, negative correlation between the abundance of hibernating individuals and the mean winter temperature. On the other hand, the number of individuals hibernating in small bunkers increased, even though the site was located in one of the warm regions. The results indicate a warming climate will likely reduce the use of large, well-insulated winter roosts by species that prefer colder conditions–and that this is already happening. For forest-dwelling bats, such as the barbastelle, for which monitoring schemes are primarily based on winter surveys of large hibernacula, estimations of population trends may consequently become less reliable.

The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility

Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the 'critical thermal limit' (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species' persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism's lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the 'thermal fertility limit' (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts.

Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates

Phenological mismatch results when interacting species change the timing of regularly repeated phases in their life cycles at different rates. We review whether this continuously ongoing phenomenon, also known as trophic asynchrony, is becoming more common under ongoing rapid climate change. In antagonistic trophic interactions, any mismatch will have negative impacts for only one of the species, whereas in mutualistic interactions, both partners are expected to suffer. Trophic mismatch is therefore expected to last for evolutionarily short periods, perhaps only a few seasons, adding to the difficulty of attributing it to climate change, which requires long-term data. So far, the prediction that diverging phenologies linked to climate change will cause mismatch is most clearly met in antagonistic interactions at high latitudes in the Artic. There is limited evidence of phenological mismatch in mutualistic interactions, possibly because of strong selection on mutualists to have co-adapted phenological strategies. The study of individual plasticity, population variation, and the genetic bases for phenological strategies is in its infancy. Recent work on woody plants revealed the large imprint of historic climate change on temperature, chilling, and day-length thresholds used by different species to synchronize their phenophases, which in the Northern Hemisphere has led to biogeographic phenological regions in which long-lived plants have adapted to particular interannual and intermillennial amplitudes of climate change.

Fast Responses of Root Dynamics to Increased Snow Deposition and Summer Air Temperature in an Arctic Wetland

In wet tundra ecosystems, covering vast areas of the Arctic, the belowground plant biomass exceeds the aboveground, making root dynamics a crucial component of the nutrient cycling and the carbon (C) budget of the Arctic. In response to the projected climatic scenarios for the Arctic, namely increased temperature and changes in precipitation patterns, root dynamics may be altered leading to significant changes in the net ecosystem C budget. Here, we quantify the single and combined effects of 1 year of increased winter snow deposition by snow fences and summer warming by open-top chambers (OTCs) on root dynamics in a wetland at Disko Island (West Greenland). Based on ingrowth bags, snow accumulation decreased root productivity by 42% in the 0-15 cm soil depth compared to ambient conditions. Over the growing season 2014, minirhizotron observations showed that root growth continued until mid-September in all treatments, and it peaked between the end of July and mid-August. During the season, plots exposed to experimental warming showed a significant increase in root number during September (between 39 and 53%) and a 39% increase in root length by the beginning of September. In addition, a significant reduction of root diameter (14%) was observed in plots with increased snow accumulation. Along the soil profile (0-40 cm) summer warming by OTCs significantly increased the total root length (54%), root number (41%) and the root growth in the 20-30 cm soil depth (71%). These results indicate a fast response of this ecosystem to changes in air temperature and precipitation. Hence, on a short-term, summer warming may lead to increased root depth and belowground C allocation, whereas increased winter snow precipitation may reduce root production or favor specific plant species by means of reduced growing season length or increased nutrient cycling. Knowledge on belowground root dynamics is therefore critical to improve the estimation of the C balance of the Arctic.

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes

Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (-22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (-18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes-climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single-factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems.

Cold acclimation in warmer extended autumns impairs freezing tolerance of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) and timothy (Phleum pratense)

The effect of variable autumn temperatures in combination with decreasing irradiance and daylength on photosynthesis, growth cessation and freezing tolerance was investigated in northern- and southern-adapted populations of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) and timothy (Phleum pratense) intended for use in regions at northern high latitudes. Plants were subjected to three different acclimation temperatures; 12, 6 and 9/3°C (day/night) for 4 weeks, followed by 1 week of cold acclimation at 2°C under natural light conditions. This experimental setup was repeated at three different periods during autumn with decreasing sums of irradiance and daylengths. Photoacclimation, leaf elongation and freezing tolerance were studied. The results showed that plants cold acclimated during the period with lowest irradiance and shortest day had lowest freezing tolerance, lowest photosynthetic activity, longest leaves and least biomass production. Higher acclimation temperature (12°C) resulted in lower freezing tolerance, lower photosynthetic activity, faster leaf elongation rate and higher biomass compared with the other temperatures. Photochemical mechanisms were predominant in photoacclimation. The northern-adapted populations had a better freezing tolerance than the southern-adapted except when grown during the late autumn period and at the highest temperature; then there were no differences between the populations. Our results indicate that the projected climate change in the north may reduce freezing tolerance in grasses as acclimation will take place at higher temperatures and shorter daylengths with lower irradiance.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago - Svalbard, Norway

The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of 'rain-on-snow' events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore-predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long-term (multidecadal) demographic, population- and ecosystem-based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

In a warmer Arctic, mosquitoes avoid increased mortality from predators by growing faster

Climate change is altering environmental temperature, a factor that influences ectothermic organisms by controlling rates of physiological processes. Demographic effects of warming, however, are determined by the expression of these physiological effects through predator-prey and other species interactions. Using field observations and controlled experiments, we measured how increasing temperatures in the Arctic affected development rates and mortality rates (from predation) of immature Arctic mosquitoes in western Greenland. We then developed and parametrized a demographic model to evaluate how temperature affects survival of mosquitoes from the immature to the adult stage. Our studies showed that warming increased development rate of immature mosquitoes (Q10 = 2.8) but also increased daily mortality from increased predation rates by a dytiscid beetle (Q10 = 1.2-1.5). Despite increased daily mortality, the model indicated that faster development and fewer days exposed to predators resulted in an increased probability of mosquito survival to the adult stage. Warming also advanced mosquito phenology, bringing mosquitoes into phenological synchrony with caribou. Increases in biting pests will have negative consequences for caribou and their role as a subsistence resource for local communities. Generalizable frameworks that account for multiple effects of temperature are needed to understand how climate change impacts coupled human-natural systems.

Ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungi respond differently to long-term experimentally increased snow depth in the High Arctic

Changing climate is expected to alter precipitation patterns in the Arctic, with consequences for subsurface temperature and moisture conditions, community structure, and nutrient mobilization through microbial belowground processes. Here, we address the effect of increased snow depth on the variation in species richness and community structure of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) and saprotrophic fungi. Soil samples were collected weekly from mid‐July to mid‐September in both control and deep snow plots. Richness of ECM fungi was lower, while saprotrophic fungi was higher in increased snow depth plots relative to controls. [Correction added on 23 September 2016 after first online publication: In the preceding sentence, the richness of ECM and saprotrophic fungi were wrongly interchanged and have been fixed in this current version.] ECM fungal richness was related to soil NO₃‐N, NH₄‐N, and K; and saprotrophic fungi to NO₃‐N and pH. Small but significant changes in the composition of saprotrophic fungi could be attributed to snow treatment and sampling time, but not so for the ECM fungi. Delayed snow melt did not influence the temporal variation in fungal communities between the treatments. Results suggest that some fungal species are favored, while others are disfavored resulting in their local extinction due to long‐term changes in snow amount. Shifts in species composition of fungal functional groups are likely to affect nutrient cycling, ecosystem respiration, and stored permafrost carbon.

Experimental icing affects growth, mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Effects of climate change are predicted to be greatest at high latitudes, with more pronounced warming in winter than summer. Extreme mid-winter warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow events are already increasing in frequency in the Arctic, with implications for snow-pack and ground-ice formation. These may in turn affect key components of Arctic ecosystems. However, the fitness consequences of extreme winter weather events for tundra plants are not well understood, especially in the high Arctic. We simulated an extreme mid-winter rain-on-snow event at a field site in high Arctic Svalbard (78°N) by experimentally encasing tundra vegetation in ice. After the subsequent growing season, we measured the effects of icing on growth and fitness indices in the common tundra plant, Arctic bell-heather (Cassiope tetragona). The suitability of this species for retrospective growth analysis enabled us to compare shoot growth in pre and postmanipulation years in icing treatment and control plants, as well as shoot survival and flowering. Plants from icing treatment plots had higher shoot mortality and lower flowering success than controls. At the individual sample level, heavily flowering plants invested less in shoot growth than nonflowering plants, while shoot growth was positively related to the degree of shoot mortality. Therefore, contrary to expectation, undamaged shoots showed enhanced growth in ice treatment plants. This suggests that following damage, aboveground resources were allocated to the few remaining undamaged meristems. The enhanced shoot growth measured in our icing treatment plants has implications for climate studies based on retrospective analyses of Cassiope. As shoot growth in this species responds positively to summer warming, it also highlights a potentially complex interaction between summer and winter conditions. By documenting strong effects of icing on growth and reproduction of a widespread tundra plant, our study contributes to an understanding of Arctic plant responses to projected changes in winter climatic conditions.

Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra

Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.

Temporal variation of Bistorta vivipara-associated ectomycorrhizal fungal communities in the High Arctic

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi are important for efficient nutrient uptake of several widespread arctic plant species. Knowledge of temporal variation of ECM fungi, and the relationship of these patterns to environmental variables, is essential to understand energy and nutrient cycling in Arctic ecosystems. We sampled roots of Bistorta vivipara ten times over two years; three times during the growing-season (June, July and September) and twice during winter (November and April) of both years. We found 668 ECM OTUs belonging to 25 different ECM lineages, whereof 157 OTUs persisted throughout all sampling time-points. Overall, ECM fungal richness peaked in winter and species belonging to Cortinarius, Serendipita and Sebacina were more frequent in winter than during summer. Structure of ECM fungal communities was primarily affected by spatial factors. However, after accounting for spatial effects, significant seasonal variation was evident revealing correspondence with seasonal changes in environmental conditions. We demonstrate that arctic ECM richness and community structure differ between summer (growing-season) and winter, possibly due to reduced activity of the core community, and addition of fungi adapted for winter conditions forming a winter-active fungal community. Significant month × year interactions were observed both for fungal richness and community composition, indicating unpredictable between-year variation. Our study indicates that addressing seasonal changes requires replication over several years.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming.