Polygenic Risk Score Contribution to Psychosis Prediction in a Target Population of Persons at Clinical High Risk

Polygenic risk scores and the prediction of onset of mood and psychotic disorders in adolescents and young adults

AIM

To examine whether polygenic risk scores (PRS) for neuroticism, depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia are higher in individuals manifesting trans-diagnostic risk factors for the development of major mental disorders and whether PRS enhance prediction of early onset full-threshold disorders.

METHODS

Using data from the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study, we examined individual PRS for neuroticism, depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, recorded evidence of subthreshold syndromes and family history of mood and/or psychotic disorders and noted progression to trans-diagnostic clinical caseness (onset of major mental disorders) at follow-up. We undertook multivariate, receiver operating curve and logistic regression analyses that were adjusted for known variables of influence (age, twin status, and so on).

RESULTS

Of 1473 eligible participants (female = 866, 59%; mean age 26.3 years), 28% (n = 409) met caseness criteria for a mood and/or psychotic disorder. All PRS were higher in cases versus non-cases but associations with different levels of risk were inconsistent. The prediction of caseness (reported as area under the curve with 95% confidence intervals [CI]) improved from 0.68 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.71) when estimated using clinical risk factors alone up to 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.73) when PRS were added to the model. Logistic regression identified five variables that optimally classified individuals according to caseness: age, sex, individual risk characteristics, PRS for depression and mental health case status of cotwins or siblings.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings need replication. However, this exploratory study suggests that combining PRS with other risk factors has the potential to improve outcome prediction in youth.

A genetics-guided approach to the clinical management of schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a highly heritable, severe mental illness characterized by hallucinations, delusions, social withdrawal, and cognitive dysfunction present in ∼1% of populations across cultures. There have been recent major advancements in our understanding of the genetic architecture of schizophrenia. Both rare, highly penetrant genetic variants as well as common, low-penetrant genetic variants can predispose individuals to schizophrenia and can impact the way people metabolize psychoactive medications used to treat schizophrenia. However, the impact of these findings on the clinical management of schizophrenia remains limited. This review highlights the few places where genetics currently informs schizophrenia management strategies, discusses major limitations, and reviews promising areas of genetics research that are most likely to impact future schizophrenia care. Specifically, I focuss on psychiatric genetic counseling, genetic testing strategies, pharmacogenetics, polygenic risk, and genetics-guided treatment. Lastly, I emphasize important ethical considerations in the clinical use of genetics for schizophrenia management, including the exacerbation of healthcare inequalities and unintended consequences of new genetic technologies.

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

Proteomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Multi-cohort Model Development Study

Psychosis risk prediction is one of the leading challenges in psychiatry. Previous investigations have suggested that plasma proteomic data may be useful in accurately predicting transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). We hypothesized that an a priori-specified proteomic prediction model would have strong predictive accuracy for psychosis risk and aimed to replicate longitudinal associations between plasma proteins and transition to psychosis. This study used plasma samples from participants in 3 CHR cohorts: the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, and the NEURAPRO randomized control trial (total n = 754). Plasma proteomic data were quantified using mass spectrometry. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis over the study follow-up period. Logistic regression models were internally validated, and optimism-corrected performance metrics derived with a bootstrap procedure. In the overall sample of CHR participants (age: 18.5, SD: 3.9; 51.9% male), 20.4% (n = 154) developed psychosis within 4.4 years. The a priori-specified model showed poor risk-prediction accuracy for the development of psychosis (C-statistic: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.50, 0.59], calibration slope: 0.45). At a group level, Complement C8B, C4B, C5, and leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1) were associated with transition to psychosis but did not surpass correction for multiple comparisons. This study did not confirm the findings from a previous proteomic prediction model of transition from CHR to psychosis. Certain complement proteins may be weakly associated with transition at a group level. Previous findings, derived from small samples, should be interpreted with caution.

MUSSEL: Enhanced Bayesian polygenic risk prediction leveraging information across multiple ancestry groups

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are now showing promising predictive performance on a wide variety of complex traits and diseases, but there exists a substantial performance gap across populations. We propose MUSSEL, a method for ancestry-specific polygenic prediction that borrows information in summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) across multiple ancestry groups via Bayesian hierarchical modeling and ensemble learning. In our simulation studies and data analyses across four distinct studies, totaling 5.7 million participants with a substantial ancestral diversity, MUSSEL shows promising performance compared to alternatives. For example, MUSSEL has an average gain in prediction R2 across 11 continuous traits of 40.2% and 49.3% compared to PRS-CSx and CT-SLEB, respectively, in the African ancestry population. The best-performing method, however, varies by GWAS sample size, target ancestry, trait architecture, and linkage disequilibrium reference samples; thus, ultimately a combination of methods may be needed to generate the most robust PRSs across diverse populations.

N2 Responses in Youths With Psychosis Risk Syndrome and Their Association With Clinical Outcomes: A Cohort Follow-Up Study Based on the Three-Stimulus Visual Oddball Paradigm

OBJECTIVE

Schizophrenia often occurs during youth, and psychosis risk syndrome occurs before the onset of psychosis. The aim of this study was to determine whether the visual event-related potential responses in youths with psychosis risk syndrome were defective in the presence of interference stimuli and associated with their clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A total of 223 participants, including 122 patients with psychosis risk syndrome, 50 patients with emotional disorders, and 51 healthy control subjects, were assessed. Baseline EEG was recorded during the three-stimulus visual oddball task. The event-related potentials induced by square pictures with different colors were measured. Almost all patients with psychosis risk syndrome were followed up for 12 months and were reclassified into three subgroups: conversion, symptomatic, and remission. The differences in baseline event-related potential responses were compared among the clinical outcome subgroups.

RESULTS

The average N2 amplitude of the psychosis risk syndrome group was significantly less negative than that in the healthy control group (d=0.53). The baseline average N2 amplitude in the conversion subgroup was significantly less negative than that in the symptomatic (d=0.58) and remission (d=0.50) subgroups and in the healthy control group (d=0.97). The average N2 amplitude did not differ significantly between the symptomatic and remission subgroups (d=0.02). However, it was significantly less negative in the symptomatic and remission subgroups than in the healthy control group (d=0.46 and d=0.38). No statistically significant results were found in the P3 response.

CONCLUSIONS

Youths with psychosis risk syndrome had significant N2 amplitude defects in attention processing with interference stimuli. N2 amplitude shows potential as a prognostic biomarker of clinical outcome in the psychosis risk syndrome.

Polygenic risk scores mediating functioning outcomes through cognitive and clinical features in youth at family risk and controls

Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder exhibit substantial clinical overlap, particularly in individuals at familial high risk, who frequently present sub-threshold symptoms before the onset of illness. Severe mental disorders are highly polygenic traits, but their impact on the stages preceding the manifestation of mental disorders remains relatively unexplored. Our study aimed to examine the influence of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on sub-clinical outcomes over a 2-year period in youth at familial high risk for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder and controls. The sample included 222 children and adolescents, comprising offspring of parents with schizophrenia (n = 38), bipolar disorder (n = 80), and community controls (n = 104). We calculated PRS for psychiatric disorders, neuroticism and cognition using the PRS-CS method. Linear mixed-effects models were employed to investigate the association between PRS and cognition, symptom severity and functioning. Mediation analyses were conducted to explore whether clinical features acted as intermediaries in the impact of PRS on functioning outcomes. SZoff exhibited elevated PRS for schizophrenia. In the entire sample, PRS for depression, neuroticism, and cognitive traits showed associations with sub-clinical features. The effect of PRS for neuroticism and general intelligence on functioning outcomes were mediated by cognition and symptoms severity, respectively. This study delves into the interplay among genetics, the emergence of sub-clinical symptoms and functioning outcomes, providing novel evidence on mechanisms underpinning the continuum from sub-threshold features to the onset of mental disorders. The findings underscore the interplay of genetics, cognition, and clinical features, providing insights for personalized early interventions.

Association of neurotransmitter pathway polygenic risk with specific symptom profiles in psychosis

A primary goal of psychiatry is to better understand the pathways that link genetic risk to psychiatric symptoms. Here, we tested association of diagnosis and endophenotypes with overall and neurotransmitter pathway-specific polygenic risk in patients with early-stage psychosis. Subjects included 205 demographically diverse cases with a psychotic disorder who underwent comprehensive psychiatric and neurological phenotyping and 115 matched controls. Following genotyping, we calculated polygenic scores (PGSs) for schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BP) using Psychiatric Genomics Consortium GWAS summary statistics. To test if overall genetic risk can be partitioned into affected neurotransmitter pathways, we calculated pathway PGSs (pPGSs) for SZ risk affecting each of four major neurotransmitter systems: glutamate, GABA, dopamine, and serotonin. Psychosis subjects had elevated SZ PGS versus controls; cases with SZ or BP diagnoses had stronger SZ or BP risk, respectively. There was no significant association within psychosis cases between individual symptom measures and overall PGS. However, neurotransmitter-specific pPGSs were moderately associated with specific endophenotypes; notably, glutamate was associated with SZ diagnosis and with deficits in cognitive control during task-based fMRI, while dopamine was associated with global functioning. Finally, unbiased endophenotype-driven clustering identified three diagnostically mixed case groups that separated on primary deficits of positive symptoms, negative symptoms, global functioning, and cognitive control. All clusters showed strong genome-wide risk. Cluster 2, characterized by deficits in cognitive control and negative symptoms, additionally showed specific risk concentrated in glutamatergic and GABAergic pathways. Due to the intensive characterization of our subjects, the present study was limited to a relatively small cohort. As such, results should be followed up with additional research at the population and mechanism level. Our study suggests pathway-based PGS analysis may be a powerful path forward to study genetic mechanisms driving psychiatric endophenotypes.

The specificity of the auditory P300 responses and its association with clinical outcomes in youth with psychosis risk syndrome

Background

Schizophrenia often occurs in youth, and psychosis risk syndrome (PRS) occurs before the onset of psychosis. Assessing the neuropsychological abnormalities of PRS individuals can help in early identification and active intervention of mental illness. Auditory P300 amplitude defect is an important manifestation of attention processing abnormality in PRS, but it is still unclear whether there are abnormalities in the attention processing of rhythmic compound tone stimuli in PRS individuals, and whether the P300 amplitude induced by these stimuli is specific to PRS individuals and related to their clinical outcomes.

Methods

In total, 226 participants, including 122 patients with PRS, 51 patients with emotional disorders (ED), and 53 healthy controls (HC) were assessed. Baseline electroencephalography was recorded during the compound tone oddball task. The event-related potentials (ERPs) induced by rhythmic compound tone stimuli of two frequencies (20-Hz, 40-Hz) were measured. Almost all patients with PRS were followed up for 12 months and reclassified into four groups: PRS-conversion, PRS-symptomatic, PRS-emotional disorder, and PRS-complete remission. The differences in baseline ERPs were compared among the clinical outcome groups.

Results

Regardless of the stimulation frequency, the average P300 amplitude were significantly higher in patients with PRS than in those with ED (p = 0.003, d = 0.48) and in HC (p = 0.002, d = 0.44) group. The average P300 amplitude of PRS-conversion group was significantly higher than that of the PRS-complete remission (p = 0.016, d = 0.72) and HC group (p = 0.001, d = 0.76), and the average P300 amplitude of PRS-symptomatic group was significantly higher than that of the HC group (p = 0.006, d = 0.48). Regardless of the groups (PRS, ED, HC) or the PRS clinical outcome groups, the average P300 amplitude induced by 20-Hz tone stimulation was significantly higher than that induced by 40-Hz stimulation (ps < 0.001, Ƞ2 = 0.074-0.082). The average reaction times of PRS was significantly faster than that of ED (p = 0.01, d = 0.38), and the average reaction times of the participants to 20-Hz target stimulation was significantly faster than that to 40-Hz target stimulation (p < 0.001, d = 0.21).

Conclusion

The auditory P300 amplitude induced by rhythmic compound tone stimuli is a specific electrophysiological manifestation of PRS, and the auditory P300 amplitude induced by compound tone stimuli shows promise as a putative prognostic biomarker for PRS clinical outcomes, including conversion to psychosis and clinical complete remission.

The Ethics of Risk Prediction for Psychosis and Suicide Attempt in Youth Mental Health

OBJECTIVE

To identify potential clinical utility of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and exposomic risk scores (ERS) for psychosis and suicide attempt in youth and assess the ethical implications of these tools.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a narrative literature review of emerging findings on PRS and ERS for suicide and psychosis as well as a literature review on the ethics of PRS. We discuss the ethical implications of the emerging findings for the clinical potential of PRS and ERS.

RESULTS

Emerging evidence suggests that PRS and ERS may offer clinical utility in the relatively near future but that this utility will be limited to specific, narrow clinical questions, in contrast to the suggestion that population-level screening will have sweeping impact. Combining PRS and ERS might optimize prediction. This clinical utility would change the risk-benefit balance of PRS, and further empirical assessment of proposed risks would be necessary. Some concerns for PRS, such as those about counseling, privacy, and inequities, apply to ERS. ERS raise distinct ethical challenges as well, including some that involve informed consent and direct-to-consumer advertising. Both raise questions about the ethics of machine-learning/artificial intelligence approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive analytics using PRS and ERS may soon play a role in youth mental health settings. Our findings help educate clinicians about potential capabilities, limitations, and ethical implications of these tools. We suggest that a broader discussion with the public is needed to avoid overenthusiasm and determine regulations and guidelines for use of predictive scores.

Association of neurotransmitter pathway polygenic risk with specific symptom profiles in psychosis

A primary goal of psychiatry is to better understand the pathways that link genetic risk to psychiatric symptoms. Here, we tested association of diagnosis and endophenotypes with overall and neurotransmitter pathway-specific polygenic risk in patients with early-stage psychosis. Subjects included 206 demographically diverse cases with a psychotic disorder who underwent comprehensive psychiatric and neurological phenotyping and 115 matched controls. Following genotyping, we calculated polygenic scores (PGSs) for schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BP) using Psychiatric Genomics Consortium GWAS summary statistics. To test if overall genetic risk can be partitioned into affected neurotransmitter pathways, we calculated pathway PGSs (pPGSs) for SZ risk affecting each of four major neurotransmitter systems: glutamate, GABA, dopamine, and serotonin. Psychosis subjects had elevated SZ PGS versus controls; cases with SZ or BP diagnoses had stronger SZ or BP risk, respectively. There was no significant association within psychosis cases between individual symptom measures and overall PGS. However, neurotransmitter-specific pPGSs were moderately associated with specific endophenotypes; notably, glutamate was associated with SZ diagnosis and with deficits in cognitive control during task-based fMRI, while dopamine was associated with global functioning. Finally, unbiased endophenotype-driven clustering identified three diagnostically mixed case groups that separated on primary deficits of positive symptoms, negative symptoms, global functioning, and cognitive control. All clusters showed strong genome-wide risk. Cluster 2, characterized by deficits in cognitive control and negative symptoms, additionally showed specific risk concentrated in glutamatergic and GABAergic pathways. Due to the intensive characterization of our subjects, the present study was limited to a relatively small cohort. As such, results should be followed up with additional research at the population and mechanism level. Our study suggests pathway-based PGS analysis may be a powerful path forward to study genetic mechanisms driving psychiatric endophenotypes.

Recent Updates on Predicting Conversion in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review highlights recent advances in the prediction and treatment of psychotic conversion. Over the past 25 years, research into the prodromal phase of psychotic illness has expanded with the promise of early identification of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who are likely to convert to psychosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Meta-analyses highlight conversion rates between 20 and 30% within 2-3 years using existing clinical criteria while research into more specific risk factors, biomarkers, and refinement of psychosis risk calculators has exploded, improving our ability to predict psychotic conversion with greater accuracy. Recent studies highlight risk factors and biomarkers likely to contribute to earlier identification and provide insight into neurodevelopmental abnormalities, CHR subtypes, and interventions that can target specific risk profiles linked to neural mechanisms. Ongoing initiatives that assess longer-term (> 5-10 years) outcome of CHR participants can provide valuable information about predictors of later conversion and diagnostic outcomes while large-scale international biomarker studies provide hope for precision intervention that will alter the course of early psychosis globally.

Prognostic models predicting transition to psychotic disorder using blood-based biomarkers: a systematic review and critical appraisal

Accumulating evidence suggests individuals with psychotic disorder show abnormalities in metabolic and inflammatory processes. Recently, several studies have employed blood-based predictors in models predicting transition to psychotic disorder in risk-enriched populations. A systematic review of the performance and methodology of prognostic models using blood-based biomarkers in the prediction of psychotic disorder from risk-enriched populations is warranted. Databases (PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched for eligible texts from 1998 to 15/05/2023, which detailed model development or validation studies. The checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) was used to guide data extraction from eligible texts and the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the studies. A narrative synthesis of the included studies was performed. Seventeen eligible studies were identified: 16 eligible model development studies and one eligible model validation study. A wide range of biomarkers were assessed, including nucleic acids, proteins, metabolites, and lipids. The range of C-index (area under the curve) estimates reported for the models was 0.67-1.00. No studies assessed model calibration. According to PROBAST criteria, all studies were at high risk of bias in the analysis domain. While a wide range of potentially predictive biomarkers were identified in the included studies, most studies did not account for overfitting in model performance estimates, no studies assessed calibration, and all models were at high risk of bias according to PROBAST criteria. External validation of the models is needed to provide more accurate estimates of their performance. Future studies which follow the latest available methodological and reporting guidelines and adopt strategies to accommodate required sample sizes for model development or validation will clarify the value of including blood-based biomarkers in models predicting psychosis.

How do experts in psychiatric genetics view the clinical utility of polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia?

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are promising for identifying common variant-related inheritance for psychiatric conditions but their integration into clinical practice depends on their clinical utility and psychiatrists' understanding of PRS. Our online survey explored these issues with 276 professionals working in psychiatric genetics (RR: 19%). Overall, participants demonstrated knowledge of how to interpret PRS results. Their performance on knowledge-based questions was positively correlated with participants' self-reported familiarity with PRS (r = 0.21, p = 0.0006) although differences were not statistically significant (Wald Chi-square = 3.29, df = 1, p = 0.07). However, only 48.9% of all participants answered all knowledge questions correctly. Many participants (56.5%), especially researchers (42%), indicated having at least occasional conversations about the role of genetics in psychiatric conditions with patients and/or family members. Most participants (62.7%) indicated that PRS are not yet sufficiently robust for assessment of susceptibility to schizophrenia; most significant obstacles were low predictive power and lack of population diversity in available PRS (selected, respectively, by 53.6% and 29.3% of participants). Nevertheless, 89.8% of participants were optimistic about the use of PRS in the next 10 years, suggesting a belief that current shortcomings could be addressed. Our findings inform about the perceptions of psychiatric professionals regarding PRS and the application of PRS in psychiatry.

MUSSEL: Enhanced Bayesian Polygenic Risk Prediction Leveraging Information across Multiple Ancestry Groups

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are now showing promising predictive performance on a wide variety of complex traits and diseases, but there exists a substantial performance gap across different populations. We propose MUSSEL, a method for ancestry-specific polygenic prediction that borrows information in the summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) across multiple ancestry groups. MUSSEL conducts Bayesian hierarchical modeling under a MUltivariate Spike-and-Slab model for effect-size distribution and incorporates an Ensemble Learning step using super learner to combine information across different tuning parameter settings and ancestry groups. In our simulation studies and data analyses of 16 traits across four distinct studies, totaling 5.7 million participants with a substantial ancestral diversity, MUSSEL shows promising performance compared to alternatives. The method, for example, has an average gain in prediction R2 across 11 continuous traits of 40.2% and 49.3% compared to PRS-CSx and CT-SLEB, respectively, in the African Ancestry population. The best-performing method, however, varies by GWAS sample size, target ancestry, underlying trait architecture, and the choice of reference samples for LD estimation, and thus ultimately, a combination of methods may be needed to generate the most robust PRS across diverse populations.

Depression pathophysiology, risk prediction of recurrence and comorbid psychiatric disorders using genome-wide analyses

Depression is a common psychiatric disorder and a leading cause of disability worldwide. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of six datasets, including >1.3 million individuals (371,184 with depression) and identified 243 risk loci. Overall, 64 loci were new, including genes encoding glutamate and GABA receptors, which are targets for antidepressant drugs. Intersection with functional genomics data prioritized likely causal genes and revealed new enrichment of prenatal GABAergic neurons, astrocytes and oligodendrocyte lineages. We found depression to be highly polygenic, with ~11,700 variants explaining 90% of the single-nucleotide polymorphism heritability, estimating that >95% of risk variants for other psychiatric disorders (anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) were influencing depression risk when both concordant and discordant variants were considered, and nearly all depression risk variants influenced educational attainment. Additionally, depression genetic risk was associated with impaired complex cognition domains. We dissected the genetic and clinical heterogeneity, revealing distinct polygenic architectures across subgroups of depression and demonstrating significantly increased absolute risks for recurrence and psychiatric comorbidity among cases of depression with the highest polygenic burden, with considerable sex differences. The risks were up to 5- and 32-fold higher than cases with the lowest polygenic burden and the background population, respectively. These results deepen the understanding of the biology underlying depression, its disease progression and inform precision medicine approaches to treatment.

Link between cognitive polygenic risk scores and clinical progression after a first-psychotic episode

BACKGROUND

Clinical intervention in early stages of psychotic disorders is crucial for the prevention of severe symptomatology trajectories and poor outcomes. Genetic variability is studied as a promising modulator of prognosis, thus novel approaches considering the polygenic nature of these complex phenotypes are required to unravel the mechanisms underlying the early progression of the disorder.

METHODS

The sample comprised of 233 first-episode psychosis (FEP) subjects with clinical and cognitive data assessed periodically for a 2-year period and 150 matched controls. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, depression, education attainment and cognitive performance were used to assess the genetic risk of FEP and to characterize their association with premorbid, baseline and progression of clinical and cognitive status.

RESULTS

Schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and cognitive performance PRSs were associated with an increased risk of FEP [false discovery rate (FDR) ⩽ 0.027]. In FEP patients, increased cognitive PRSs were found for FEP patients with more cognitive reserve (FDR ⩽ 0.037). PRSs reflecting a genetic liability for improved cognition were associated with a better course of symptoms, functionality and working memory (FDR ⩽ 0.039). Moreover, the PRS of depression was associated with a worse trajectory of the executive function and the general cognitive status (FDR ⩽ 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides novel evidence of the polygenic bases of psychosis and its clinical manifestation in its first stage. The consistent effect of cognitive PRSs on the early clinical progression suggests that the mechanisms underlying the psychotic episode and its severity could be partially independent.

Characterizing sustained social anxiety in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis: trajectory, risk factors, and functional outcomes

BACKGROUND

While comorbidity of clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) status and social anxiety is well-established, it remains unclear how social anxiety and positive symptoms covary over time in this population. The present study aimed to determine whether there are more than one covariant trajectory of social anxiety and positive symptoms in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study cohort (NAPLS 2) and, if so, to test whether the different trajectory subgroups differ in terms of genetic and environmental risk factors for psychotic disorders and general functional outcome.

METHODS

In total, 764 CHR individuals were evaluated at baseline for social anxiety and psychosis risk symptom severity and followed up every 6 months for 2 years. Application of group-based multi-trajectory modeling discerned three subgroups based on the covariant trajectories of social anxiety and positive symptoms over 2 years.

RESULTS

One of the subgroups showed sustained social anxiety over time despite moderate recovery in positive symptoms, while the other two showed recovery of social anxiety below clinically significant thresholds, along with modest to moderate recovery in positive symptom severity. The trajectory group with sustained social anxiety had poorer long-term global functional outcomes than the other trajectory groups. In addition, compared with the other two trajectory groups, membership in the group with sustained social anxiety was predicted by higher levels of polygenic risk for schizophrenia and environmental stress exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these analyses indicate differential relevance of sustained v. remitting social anxiety symptoms in the CHR-P population, which in turn may carry implications for differential intervention strategies.

Candidate biomarkers in psychiatric disorders: state of the field

The field of psychiatry is hampered by a lack of robust, reliable and valid biomarkers that can aid in objectively diagnosing patients and providing individualized treatment recommendations. Here we review and critically evaluate the evidence for the most promising biomarkers in the psychiatric neuroscience literature for autism spectrum disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder, major depression and bipolar disorder, and substance use disorders. Candidate biomarkers reviewed include various neuroimaging, genetic, molecular and peripheral assays, for the purposes of determining susceptibility or presence of illness, and predicting treatment response or safety. This review highlights a critical gap in the biomarker validation process. An enormous societal investment over the past 50 years has identified numerous candidate biomarkers. However, to date, the overwhelming majority of these measures have not been proven sufficiently reliable, valid and useful to be adopted clinically. It is time to consider whether strategic investments might break this impasse, focusing on a limited number of promising candidates to advance through a process of definitive testing for a specific indication. Some promising candidates for definitive testing include the N170 signal, an event-related brain potential measured using electroencephalography, for subgroup identification within autism spectrum disorder; striatal resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measures, such as the striatal connectivity index (SCI) and the functional striatal abnormalities (FSA) index, for prediction of treatment response in schizophrenia; error-related negativity (ERN), an electrophysiological index, for prediction of first onset of generalized anxiety disorder, and resting-state and structural brain connectomic measures for prediction of treatment response in social anxiety disorder. Alternate forms of classification may be useful for conceptualizing and testing potential biomarkers. Collaborative efforts allowing the inclusion of biosystems beyond genetics and neuroimaging are needed, and online remote acquisition of selected measures in a naturalistic setting using mobile health tools may significantly advance the field. Setting specific benchmarks for well-defined target application, along with development of appropriate funding and partnership mechanisms, would also be crucial. Finally, it should never be forgotten that, for a biomarker to be actionable, it will need to be clinically predictive at the individual level and viable in clinical settings.

Polygenic scoring accuracy varies across the genetic ancestry continuum

Polygenic scores (PGSs) have limited portability across different groupings of individuals (for example, by genetic ancestries and/or social determinants of health), preventing their equitable use1-3. PGS portability has typically been assessed using a single aggregate population-level statistic (for example, R2)4, ignoring inter-individual variation within the population. Here, using a large and diverse Los Angeles biobank5 (ATLAS, n = 36,778) along with the UK Biobank6 (UKBB, n = 487,409), we show that PGS accuracy decreases individual-to-individual along the continuum of genetic ancestries7 in all considered populations, even within traditionally labelled 'homogeneous' genetic ancestries. The decreasing trend is well captured by a continuous measure of genetic distance (GD) from the PGS training data: Pearson correlation of -0.95 between GD and PGS accuracy averaged across 84 traits. When applying PGS models trained on individuals labelled as white British in the UKBB to individuals with European ancestries in ATLAS, individuals in the furthest GD decile have 14% lower accuracy relative to the closest decile; notably, the closest GD decile of individuals with Hispanic Latino American ancestries show similar PGS performance to the furthest GD decile of individuals with European ancestries. GD is significantly correlated with PGS estimates themselves for 82 of 84 traits, further emphasizing the importance of incorporating the continuum of genetic ancestries in PGS interpretation. Our results highlight the need to move away from discrete genetic ancestry clusters towards the continuum of genetic ancestries when considering PGSs.

A Polygenic Risk Score Enhances Risk Prediction for Adolescents' Antisocial Behavior over the Combined Effect of 22 Extra-familial, Familial, and Individual Risk Factors in the Context of the Family Check-Up

Possessing informative tools to predict who is most at risk for antisocial behavior in adolescence is important to help identify families most in need of early intervention. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been shown to predict antisocial behavior, but it remains unclear whether PRSs provide additional benefit above more conventional tools to early risk detection for antisocial behavior. This study examined the utility of a PRS in predicting adolescents' antisocial behavior after accounting for a broad index of children's contextual and individual risk factors for antisocial behavior. Participants were drawn from a longitudinal family-based prevention study (N = 463; Ncontrol = 224; 48.8% girls; 45.1% White; 30.2% Black; 12.7% Hispanic/Latino, 10.4% biracial; 0.2% Native American). Participants were recruited from US-based Women, Infants, and Children Nutritional Supplement programs. A risk tolerance PRS was created from a genome-wide association study. We created a robust measure capturing additive effects of 22 conventional measures of a risk of antisocial behavior assessed at child age 2 (before intervention). A latent variable capturing antisocial behavior (ages 10.5-16) was created. After accounting for intervention status and the conventional risk index, the risk tolerance PRS predicted independent variance in antisocial behavior. A PRS-by-conventional risk interaction showed that the conventional risk measure only predicted antisocial behavior at high levels of the PRS. Thus, the risk tolerance PRS provides unique predictive information above conventional screening tools and, when combined with them, identified a higher-risk subgroup of children. Integrating PRSs could facilitate risk identification and, ultimately, prevention screening, particularly in settings unable to serve all individuals in need.

Serum immune markers and transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk

Individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis have been found to have altered cytokine levels, but whether these changes are related to clinical outcomes remains unclear. We addressed this issue by measuring serum levels of 20 immune markers in 325 participants (n = 269 CHR, n = 56 healthy controls) using multiplex immunoassays, and then followed up the CHR sample to determine their clinical outcomes. Among 269 CHR individuals, 50 (18.6 %) developed psychosis by two years. Univariate and machine learning techniques were used to compare levels of inflammatory markers in CHR subjects and healthy controls, and in CHR subjects who had (CHR-t), or had not (CHR-nt) transitioned to psychosis. An ANCOVA identified significant group differences (CHR-t, CHR-nt and controls) and post-hoc tests indicated that VEGF levels and the IL-10/IL-6 ratio were significantly higher in CHR-t than CHR-nt, after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Using a penalised logistic regression classifier, CHR participants were distinguished from controls with an area-under the curve (AUC) of 0.82, with IL-6 and IL-4 levels the most important discriminating features. Transition to psychosis was predicted with an AUC of 0.57, with higher VEGF level and IL-10/IL-6 ratio the most important discriminating features. These data suggest that alterations in the levels of peripheral immune markers are associated with the subsequent onset of psychosis. The association with increased VEGF levels could reflect altered blood-brain-barrier (BBB) permeability, while the link with an elevated IL-10/IL-6 ratio points to an imbalance between anti- and pro-inflammatory cytokines.

Polygenic Scores and Onset of Major Mood or Psychotic Disorders Among Offspring of Affected Parents

OBJECTIVE

Family history is an established risk factor for mental illness. The authors sought to investigate whether polygenic scores (PGSs) can complement family history to improve identification of risk for major mood and psychotic disorders.

METHODS

Eight cohorts were combined to create a sample of 1,884 participants ages 2-36 years, including 1,339 offspring of parents with mood or psychotic disorders, who were prospectively assessed with diagnostic interviews over an average of 5.1 years. PGSs were constructed for depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), schizophrenia, neuroticism, subjective well-being, p factor, and height (as a negative control). Cox regression was used to test associations between PGSs, family history of major mental illness, and onsets of major mood and psychotic disorders.

RESULTS

There were 435 onsets of major mood and psychotic disorders across follow-up. PGSs for neuroticism (hazard ratio=1.23, 95% CI=1.12-1.36), schizophrenia (hazard ratio=1.15, 95% CI=1.04-1.26), depression (hazard ratio=1.11, 95% CI=1.01-1.22), ADHD (hazard ratio=1.10, 95% CI=1.00-1.21), subjective well-being (hazard ratio=0.90, 95% CI=0.82-0.99), and p factor (hazard ratio=1.14, 95% CI=1.04-1.26) were associated with onsets. After controlling for family history, neuroticism PGS remained significantly positively associated (hazard ratio=1.19, 95% CI=1.08-1.31) and subjective well-being PGS remained significantly negatively associated (hazard ratio=0.89, 95% CI=0.81-0.98) with onsets.

CONCLUSIONS

Neuroticism and subjective well-being PGSs capture risk of major mood and psychotic disorders that is independent of family history, whereas PGSs for psychiatric illness provide limited predictive power when family history is known. Neuroticism and subjective well-being PGSs may complement family history in the early identification of persons at elevated risk.

New insights from the last decade of research in psychiatric genetics: discoveries, challenges and clinical implications

Psychiatric genetics has made substantial progress in the last decade, providing new insights into the genetic etiology of psychiatric disorders, and paving the way for precision psychiatry, in which individual genetic profiles may be used to personalize risk assessment and inform clinical decision-making. Long recognized to be heritable, recent evidence shows that psychiatric disorders are influenced by thousands of genetic variants acting together. Most of these variants are commonly occurring, meaning that every individual has a genetic risk to each psychiatric disorder, from low to high. A series of large-scale genetic studies have discovered an increasing number of common and rare genetic variants robustly associated with major psychiatric disorders. The most convincing biological interpretation of the genetic findings implicates altered synaptic function in autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia. However, the mechanistic understanding is still incomplete. In line with their extensive clinical and epidemiological overlap, psychiatric disorders appear to exist on genetic continua and share a large degree of genetic risk with one another. This provides further support to the notion that current psychiatric diagnoses do not represent distinct pathogenic entities, which may inform ongoing attempts to reconceptualize psychiatric nosology. Psychiatric disorders also share genetic influences with a range of behavioral and somatic traits and diseases, including brain structures, cognitive function, immunological phenotypes and cardiovascular disease, suggesting shared genetic etiology of potential clinical importance. Current polygenic risk score tools, which predict individual genetic susceptibility to illness, do not yet provide clinically actionable information. However, their precision is likely to improve in the coming years, and they may eventually become part of clinical practice, stressing the need to educate clinicians and patients about their potential use and misuse. This review discusses key recent insights from psychiatric genetics and their possible clinical applications, and suggests future directions.

How can we obtain truly translational mouse models to improve clinical outcomes in schizophrenia?

Schizophrenia is a serious mental illness affecting 0.7% of the world's population. Despite over 50 years of schizophrenia drug identification and development, there have been no fundamental advances in the treatment of schizophrenia since the 1980s. Complex genetic aetiology and elusive pathomechanisms have made it difficult for researchers to develop models that sufficiently reflect pathophysiology to support effective drug discovery. However, recent large-scale, well-powered genomic studies have identified risk genes that represent tractable entry points to decipher disease mechanisms in heterogeneous patient populations and develop targeted treatments. Replicating schizophrenia-associated gene variants in mouse models is an important strategy to start understanding their pathogenicity and role in disease biology. Furthermore, longitudinal studies in a wide range of genetic mouse models from early postnatal life are required to assess the progression of this disease through developmental stages to improve early diagnostic strategies and enable preventative measures. By expanding and refining our approach to schizophrenia research, we can improve prevention strategies and treatment of this debilitating disease.

Concerns about the use of polygenic embryo screening for psychiatric and cognitive traits

Private companies have begun offering services to allow parents undergoing in-vitro fertilisation to screen embryos for genetic risk of complex diseases, including psychiatric disorders. This procedure, called polygenic embryo screening, raises several difficult scientific and ethical issues, as discussed in this Personal View. Polygenic embryo screening depends on the statistical properties of polygenic risk scores, which are complex and not well studied in the context of this proposed clinical application. The clinical, social, and ethical implications of polygenic embryo screening have barely been discussed among relevant stakeholders. To our knowledge, the International Society of Psychiatric Genetics is the first professional biomedical organisation to issue a statement regarding polygenic embryo screening. For the reasons discussed in this Personal View, the Society urges caution and calls for additional research and oversight on the use of polygenic embryo screening.

Perceptions of causal attribution and attitudes to genetic testing among people with schizophrenia and their first-degree relatives

Rapid advances in the genetics of psychiatric disorders mean that diagnostic and predictive genetic testing for schizophrenia risk may one day be a reality. This study examined how causal attributions for schizophrenia contribute to interest in a hypothetical genetic test. People with schizophrenia and first-degree relatives of people with schizophrenia were recruited through a schizophrenia research bank and mental health organisation. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 13 individuals with schizophrenia and 8 first-degree relatives. Transcripts were subjected to a qualitative analysis using the thematic analysis framework. Five themes were developed: (i) "It is like a cocktail", with most participants aware that both genetic and environmental factors contributed to causation, and many mentioning the positive impact of genetic causal explanations; (ii) "Knowledge is power" (i.e., in favour of genetic testing); (iii) Genetic testing provides opportunities for early intervention and avoiding triggers, with participants citing a wide range of perceived benefits of genetic testing but few risks; (iv) Views on reproductive genetic testing for schizophrenia risk with a few participants viewing it as "playing God" but not necessarily being against it; and (v) "It snowballs", whereby participants' understanding of genetics was sophisticated with most believing that multiple rather than single genes contributed to schizophrenia. In conclusion, many individuals had a sound understanding of the role of genetic testing if it were to become available, with evidence of insight into the role of multiple genes and the contribution of other risk factors that may interact with any inherited genetic risk.

Novel functional genomics approaches bridging neuroscience and psychiatry

The possibility of establishing a metric of individual genetic risk for a particular disease or trait has sparked the interest of the clinical and research communities, with many groups developing and validating genomic profiling methodologies for their potential application in clinical care. Current approaches for calculating genetic risk to specific psychiatric conditions consist of aggregating genome-wide association studies-derived estimates into polygenic risk scores, which broadly represent the number of inherited risk alleles for an individual. While the traditional approach for polygenic risk score calculation aggregates estimates of gene-disease associations, novel alternative approaches have started to consider functional molecular phenotypes that are closer to genetic variation and are less penalized by the multiple testing required in genome-wide association studies. Moving the focus from genotype-disease to genotype-gene regulation frameworks, these novel approaches incorporate prior knowledge regarding biological processes involved in disease and aggregate estimates for the association of genotypes and phenotypes using multi-omics data modalities. In this review, we discuss and list different functional genomics tools that can be used and integrated to inform researchers and clinicians for a better understanding and diagnosis of psychopathology. We suggest that these novel approaches can help generate biologically driven hypotheses for polygenic signals that can ultimately serve the clinical community as potential biomarkers of psychiatric disease susceptibility.

Developing and internally validating a prognostic model (P Risk) to improve the prediction of psychosis in a primary care population using electronic health records: The MAPPED study

BACKGROUND

An accurate risk prediction algorithm could improve psychosis outcomes by reducing duration of untreated psychosis.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model for psychosis, for use by family doctors, using linked electronic health records.

METHODS

A prospective prediction study. Records from family practices were used between 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2017 of 300,000 patients who had consulted their family doctor for any nonpsychotic mental health problem. Records were selected from Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold, a routine database of UK family doctor records linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, a routine database of UK secondary care records. Each patient had 5-8 years of follow up data. Study predictors were consultations, diagnoses and/or prescribed medications, during the study period or historically, for 13 nonpsychotic mental health problems and behaviours, age, gender, number of mental health consultations, social deprivation, geographical location, and ethnicity. The outcome was time to an ICD10 psychosis diagnosis.

FINDINGS

830 diagnoses of psychosis were made. Patients were from 216 family practices; mean age was 45.3 years and 43.5 % were male. Median follow-up was 6.5 years (IQR 5.6, 7.8). Overall 8-year psychosis incidence was 45.8 (95 % CI 42.8, 49.0)/100,000 person years at risk. A risk prediction model including age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, consultations for suicidal behaviour, depression/anxiety, substance abuse, history of consultations for suicidal behaviour, smoking history and prescribed medications for depression/anxiety/PTSD/OCD and total number of consultations had good discrimination (Harrell's C = 0.774). Identifying patients aged 17-100 years with predicted risk exceeding 1.0 % over 6 years had sensitivity of 71 % and specificity of 84 %.

FUNDING

NIHR, School for Primary Care Research, Biomedical Research Centre.

Eye movement indices as predictors of conversion to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk

Eye movement abnormalities have been established as an "endophenotype" of schizophrenia. However, less is known about the possibility of these abnormalities as biomarkers for psychosis conversion among clinical high risk (CHR) populations. In the present study, 108 CHR individuals and 70 healthy controls (HC) underwent clinical assessments and eye-tracking tests, comprising fixation stability and free-viewing tasks. According to three-year follow-up outcomes, CHR participants were further stratified into CHR-converter (CHR-C; n = 21) and CHR-nonconverter (CHR-NC; n = 87) subgroups. Prediction models were constructed using Cox regression and logistic regression. The CHR-C group showed more saccades of the fixation stability test (no distractor) and a reduced saccade amplitude of the free-viewing test than HC. Moreover, the CHR-NC group exhibited excessive saccades and an increased saccade amplitude of the fixation stability test (no distractor; with distractor) compared with HC. Furthermore, two indices could effectively discriminate CHR-C from CHR-NC with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.80, including the saccade number of the fixation stability test (no distractor) and the saccade amplitude of the free-viewing test. Combined with negative symptom scores of the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms, the area was 0.81. These findings support that eye movement alterations might emerge before the onset of clinically overt psychosis and could assist in predicting psychosis transition among CHR populations.

Clinical, Brain, and Multilevel Clustering in Early Psychosis and Affective Stages

Importance

Approaches are needed to stratify individuals in early psychosis stages beyond positive symptom severity to investigate specificity related to affective and normative variation and to validate solutions with premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk measures.

Objective

To use machine learning techniques to cluster, compare, and combine subgroup solutions using clinical and brain structural imaging data from early psychosis and depression stages.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A multisite, naturalistic, longitudinal cohort study (10 sites in 5 European countries; including major follow-up intervals at 9 and 18 months) with a referred patient sample of those with clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), recent-onset psychosis (ROP), recent-onset depression (ROD), and healthy controls were recruited between February 1, 2014, to July 1, 2019. Data were analyzed between January 2020 and January 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

A nonnegative matrix factorization technique separately decomposed clinical (287 variables) and parcellated brain structural volume (204 gray, white, and cerebrospinal fluid regions) data across CHR-P, ROP, ROD, and healthy controls study groups. Stability criteria determined cluster number using nested cross-validation. Validation targets were compared across subgroup solutions (premorbid, longitudinal, and schizophrenia polygenic risk scores). Multiclass supervised machine learning produced a transferable solution to the validation sample.

Results

There were a total of 749 individuals in the discovery group and 610 individuals in the validation group. Individuals included those with CHR-P (n = 287), ROP (n = 323), ROD (n = 285), and healthy controls (n = 464), The mean (SD) age was 25.1 (5.9) years, and 702 (51.7%) were female. A clinical 4-dimensional solution separated individuals based on positive symptoms, negative symptoms, depression, and functioning, demonstrating associations with all validation targets. Brain clustering revealed a subgroup with distributed brain volume reductions associated with negative symptoms, reduced performance IQ, and increased schizophrenia polygenic risk scores. Multilevel results distinguished between normative and illness-related brain differences. Subgroup results were largely validated in the external sample.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this longitudinal cohort study provide stratifications beyond the expression of positive symptoms that cut across illness stages and diagnoses. Clinical results suggest the importance of negative symptoms, depression, and functioning. Brain results suggest substantial overlap across illness stages and normative variation, which may highlight a vulnerability signature independent from specific presentations. Premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk validation suggested clinical importance of the subgroups to preventive treatments.

Metabolic polygenic risk scores effect on antipsychotic-induced metabolic dysregulation: A longitudinal study in a first episode psychosis cohort

OBJECTIVE

Metabolic syndrome is a health-threatening condition suffered by approximately one third of schizophrenia patients and largely attributed to antipsychotic medication. Previous evidence reports a common genetic background of psychotic and metabolic disorders. In this study, we aimed to assess the role of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) on the progression of the metabolic profile in a first-episode psychosis (FEP) cohort.

METHOD

Of the 231 FEP individuals included in the study, 192-220 participants were included in basal analysis and 118-179 in longitudinal 6-month models. Eleven psychopathologic and metabolic PRSs were constructed. Basal and longitudinal PRSs association with metabolic measurements was assessed by statistical analyses.

RESULTS

No major association of psychopathological PRSs with the metabolic progression was found. However, high risk individuals for depression and cholesterol-related PRSs reported a higher increase of cholesterol levels during the follow-up (FDR ≤ 0.023 for all analyses). Their effect was comparable to other well-established pharmacological and environmental risk factors (explaining at least 1.2% of total variance).

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide new evidence of the effects of metabolic genetic risk on the development of metabolic dysregulation. The future establishment of genetic profiling tools in clinical procedures could enable practitioners to better personalize antipsychotic treatment selection and dosage.

Genetics in psychiatry: Methods, clinical applications and future perspectives

Psychiatric disorders and related traits have a demonstrated genetic component, with heritability estimated by twin studies generally between 80% and 40%. Their pathogenesis is complex and multi-determined: environmental factors interact with a polygenic architecture, making difficult the development of models able to stratify patients or predict mental health outcomes. Despite this difficult challenge, relevant progress has been made in the field of psychiatric genetics in recent years. This review aims to present the main current methods in psychiatric genetics, their output, limitations, clinical applications, and possible future developments. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) performed in increasingly large samples have led to the identification of replicated genetic loci associated with the risk of major psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia and mood disorders. Statistical and biological approaches have been developed to improve our understanding of the etiopathogenetic mechanisms behind genome-wide significant associations, as well as for estimating the cumulative effect of risk variants at the individual level and the genetic overlap between different disorders, as pleiotropy is the rule rather than the exception. Clinical applications are available in the pharmacogenetics field. The main issues that remain to be addressed include improving ethnic diversity in genetic studies and the optimization of statistical power through methodological improvements, such as the definition of dimensional phenotypes with specific biological correlates and the integration of different types of omics data.

Is it possible to stage schizophrenia? A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

A staging model is a clinical tool used to define the development of a disease over time. In schizophrenia, authors have proposed different theoretical staging models of increasing complexity. Therefore, the aims of our study were to provide an updated and critical view of the proposed clinical staging models for schizophrenia and to review the empirical data that support them.

METHODS

Systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines. From the PubMed database and backward reference search, a total of 141 records were retrieved, but only 20 were selected according to the inclusion criteria: (a) available in English; (b) participants with schizophrenia ≥ 18 years; and (c) theoretical and empirical research studies intended to develop, validate, and/or improve staging models of schizophrenia.

RESULTS

Different clinical staging models for schizophrenia were identified, information about the proposed stages was tabulated and presented in the Results section (Tables 1, 2). Most of which include neuroimaging, functioning, and psychopathology, but only two models add objective biomarkers and none include patient point of view. However, few models have been psychometrically tested or used small samples and thus have been validated only partially. In addition, five studies proposed therapeutic interventions according to the stage of the disorder from a theoretical point of view.

DISCUSSION

In conclusion, it is possible to stage schizophrenia, but the models developed have several limitations. Empirical validation and inclusion of more specific biomarkers and measures of other life areas affected by schizophrenia could help in the development of more valid models.

Family history of psychosis in youth at clinical high risk: A replication study

Having a first-degree relative with a psychotic disorder increases an individual's risk for developing psychosis to 10% compared to 1% in the general population. The impact of being at family high-risk for psychosis (FHR) has been examined in samples of youth who are at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). The second North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2) identified very few clinical differences between CHR individuals with and without FHR. This paper aims to confirm these results in a new CHR sample, NAPLS-3. The NAPLS-3 sample consisted of 703 CHR participants, of whom 82 were at FHR (CHR+FHR), and 621 were not (CHR+FHRneg). The Family Interview for Genetic Studies was used to determine the presence of a first-degree relative with a psychotic disorder. The groups were compared on social and role functioning, positive and negative symptoms, IQ, cannabis use, and trauma. At baseline, the CHR+FHR group reported a statistically significant increased severity of positive and negative symptoms, lower IQ scores, and increased reports of trauma, psychological and physical abuse. There were no differences in transition rates between the two groups. This study supports some of the already reported differences in trauma, physical and psychological abuse between CHR individuals with and without FHR.

An opportunity for primary prevention research in psychotic disorders

An opportunity has opened for research into primary prevention of psychotic disorders, based on progress in endophenotypes, genetics, and genomics. Primary prevention requires reliable prediction of susceptibility before any symptoms are present. We studied a battery of measures where published data supports abnormalities of these measurements prior to appearance of initial psychosis symptoms. These neurobiological and behavioral measurements included cognition, eye movement tracking, Event Related Potentials, and polygenic risk scores. They generated an acceptably precise separation of healthy controls from outpatients with a psychotic disorder. METHODS: The Bipolar and Schizophrenia Network on Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) measured this battery in an ancestry-diverse series of consecutively recruited adult outpatients with a psychotic disorder and healthy controls. Participants include all genders, 16 to 50 years of age, 261 with psychotic disorders (Schizophrenia (SZ) 109, Bipolar with psychosis (BPP) 92, Schizoaffective disorder (SAD) 60), 110 healthy controls. Logistic Regression, and an extension of the Linear Mixed Model to include analysis of pairwise interactions between measures (Environmental kernel Relationship Matrices (ERM)) with multiple iterations, were performed to predict case-control status. Each regression analysis was validated with four-fold cross-validation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity, specificity, and Area Under the Curve of Receiver Operating Characteristic of 85%, 62%, and 86%, respectively, were obtained for both analytic methods. These prediction metrics demonstrate a promising diagnostic distinction based on premorbid risk variables. There were also statistically significant pairwise interactions between measures in the ERM model. The strong prediction metrics of both types of analytic model provide proof-of-principle for biologically-based laboratory tests as a first step toward primary prevention studies. Prospective studies of adolescents at elevated risk, vs. healthy adolescent controls, would be a next step toward development of primary prevention strategies.

Development of the Korea-Polyenvironmental Risk Score for Psychosis

OBJECTIVE

Comprehensive understanding of polyenvironmental risk factors for the development of psychosis is important. Based on a review of related evidence, we developed the Korea Polyenvironmental Risk Score (K-PERS) for psychosis. We investigated whether the K-PERS can differentiate patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) from healthy controls (HCs).

METHODS

We reviewed existing tools for measuring polyenvironmental risk factors for psychosis, including the Maudsley Environmental Risk Score (ERS), polyenviromic risk score (PERS), and Psychosis Polyrisk Score (PPS). Using odds ratios and relative risks for Western studies and the "population proportion" (PP) of risk factors for Korean data, we developed the K-PERS, and compared the scores thereon between patients with SSDs and HCs. In addition, correlation was performed between the K-PERS and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS).

RESULTS

We first constructed the "K-PERS-I," comprising five factors based on the PPS, and then the "K-PERS-II" comprising six factors based on the ERS. The instruments accurately predicted participants' status (case vs. control). In addition, the K-PERS-I and -II scores exhibited significant negative correlations with the negative symptom factor score of the PANSS.

CONCLUSION

The K-PERS is the first comprehensive tool developed based on PP data obtained from Korean studies that measures polyenvironmental risk factors for psychosis. Using pilot data, the K-PERS predicted patient status (SSD vs. HC). Further research is warranted to examine the relationship of K-PERS scores with clinical outcomes of psychosis and schizophrenia.

PGS-server: accuracy, robustness and transferability of polygenic score methods for biobank scale studies

Polygenic scores (PGS) are important tools for carrying out genetic prediction of common diseases and disease related complex traits, facilitating the development of precision medicine. Unfortunately, despite the critical importance of PGS and the vast number of PGS methods recently developed, few comprehensive comparison studies have been performed to evaluate the effectiveness of PGS methods. To fill this critical knowledge gap, we performed a comprehensive comparison study on 12 different PGS methods through internal evaluations on 25 quantitative and 25 binary traits within the UK Biobank with sample sizes ranging from 147 408 to 336 573, and through external evaluations via 25 cross-study and 112 cross-ancestry analyses on summary statistics from multiple genome-wide association studies with sample sizes ranging from 1415 to 329 345. We evaluate the prediction accuracy, computational scalability, as well as robustness and transferability of different PGS methods across datasets and/or genetic ancestries, providing important guidelines for practitioners in choosing PGS methods. Besides method comparison, we present a simple aggregation strategy that combines multiple PGS from different methods to take advantage of their distinct benefits to achieve stable and superior prediction performance. To facilitate future applications of PGS, we also develop a PGS webserver (http://www.pgs-server.com/) that allows users to upload summary statistics and choose different PGS methods to fit the data directly. We hope that our results, method and webserver will facilitate the routine application of PGS across different research areas.

Systematic Review: Molecular Studies of Common Genetic Variation in Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Disorders

OBJECTIVE

A systematic review of studies using molecular genetics and statistical approaches to investigate the role of common genetic variation in the development, persistence, and comorbidity of childhood psychiatric traits was conducted.

METHOD

A literature review was performed using the PubMed database, following PRISMA guidelines. There were 131 studies meeting inclusion criteria, having investigated at least one type of childhood-onset or childhood-measured psychiatric disorder or trait with the aim of identifying trait-associated common genetic variants, estimating the contribution of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to the amount of variance explained (SNP-based heritability), investigating genetic overlap between psychiatric traits, or investigating whether the stability in traits or the association with adult traits is explained by genetic factors.

RESULTS

The first robustly associated genetic variants have started to be identified for childhood psychiatric traits. There were substantial contributions of common genetic variants to many traits, with variation in single nucleotide polymorphism heritability estimates depending on age and raters. Moreover, genetic variants also appeared to explain comorbidity as well as stability across a range of psychiatric traits in childhood and across the life span.

CONCLUSION

Common genetic variation plays a substantial role in childhood psychiatric traits. Increased sample sizes will lead to increased power to identify genetic variants and to understand genetic architecture, which will ultimately be beneficial to targeted and prevention strategies. This can be achieved by harmonizing phenotype measurements, as is already proposed by large international consortia and by including the collection of genetic material in every study.

Life Event Stress and Reduced Cortical Thickness in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis and Healthy Control Subjects

BACKGROUND

A decline in cortical thickness during early life appears to be a normal neuromaturational process. Accelerated cortical thinning has been linked with conversion to psychosis among individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Previous research indicates that exposure to life event stress (LES) is associated with exaggerated cortical thinning in both healthy and clinical populations, and LES is also linked with conversion to psychosis in CHR-P. To date, there are no reports on the relationship of LES with cortical thickness in CHR-P. This study examines this relationship and whether LES is linked with cortical thinning to a greater degree in individuals at CHR-P who convert to psychosis compared with individuals at CHR-P who do not convert and healthy control subjects.

METHODS

Controlling for age and gender (364 male, 262 female), this study examined associations between LES and baseline cortical thickness in 436 individuals at CHR-P (375 nonconverters and 61 converters) and 190 comparison subjects in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study.

RESULTS

Findings indicate that prebaseline cumulative LES is associated with reduced baseline cortical thickness in several regions among the CHR-P and control groups. Evidence suggests that LES is a risk factor for thinner cortex to the same extent across diagnostic groups, while CHR-P status is linked with thinner cortex in select regions after accounting for LES.

CONCLUSIONS

This research provides additional evidence to support the role of LES in cortical thinning in both healthy youth and those at CHR-P. Potential underlying mechanisms of the findings and implications for future research are discussed.

What Do We Know About the Genetic Architecture of Psychopathology?

In the second half of the twentieth century, twin and family studies established beyond a reasonable doubt that all forms of psychopathology are substantially heritable and highly polygenic. These conclusions were simultaneously an important theoretical advance and a difficult methodological obstacle, as it became clear that heritability is universal and undifferentiated across forms of psychopathology, and the radical polygenicity of genetic effects limits the biological insight provided by genetically informed studies at the phenotypic level. The paradigm-shifting revolution brought on by the Human Genome Project has recapitulated the great methodological promise and the profound theoretical difficulties of the twin study era. We review these issues using the rubric of genetic architecture, which we define as a search for specific genetic insight that adds to the general conclusion that psychopathology is heritable and polygenic. Although significant problems remain, we see many promising avenues for progress.

Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, Volume 18 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Psychotic-like Experiences and Polygenic Liability in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study

BACKGROUND

Childhood psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) often precede the development of later severe psychopathology. This study examined whether childhood PLEs are associated with several psychopathology-related polygenic scores (PGSs) and additionally examined possible neural and behavioral mechanisms.

METHODS

Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study baseline data from children with European ancestry (n = 4650, ages 9-10 years, 46.8% female) were used to estimate associations between PLEs (i.e., both total and presence of significantly distressing) and PGSs for psychopathology (i.e., schizophrenia, psychiatric cross-disorder risk, PLEs) and related phenotypes (i.e., educational attainment [EDU], birth weight, inflammation). We also assessed whether variability in brain structure indices (i.e., volume, cortical thickness, surface area) and behaviors proximal to PGSs (e.g., cognition for EDU) indirectly linked PGSs to PLEs using mediational models.

RESULTS

Total and significantly distressing PLEs were associated with EDU and cross-disorder PGSs (all %ΔR2s = 0.202%-0.660%; false discovery rate-corrected ps < .006). Significantly distressing PLEs were also associated with higher schizophrenia and PLE PGSs (both %ΔR2 = 0.120%-0.216%; false discovery rate-corrected ps < .03). There was evidence that global brain volume metrics and cognitive performance indirectly linked EDU PGS to PLEs (estimated proportion mediated = 3.33%-32.22%).

CONCLUSIONS

Total and significantly distressing PLEs were associated with genomic risk indices of broad-spectrum psychopathology risk (i.e., EDU and cross-disorder PGSs). Significantly distressing PLEs were also associated with genomic risk for psychosis (i.e., schizophrenia, PLEs). Global brain volume metrics and PGS-proximal behaviors represent promising putative intermediary phenotypes that may indirectly link genomic risk to psychopathology. Broadly, polygenic scores derived from genome-wide association studies of adult samples generalize to indices of psychopathology risk among children.

Prediction of transition to psychosis from an at-risk mental state using structural neuroimaging, genetic, and environmental data

INTRODUCTION

Psychosis is usually preceded by a prodromal phase in which patients are clinically identified as being at in an "At Risk Mental State" (ARMS). A few studies have demonstrated the feasibility of predicting psychosis transition from an ARMS using structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data and machine learning (ML) methods. However, the reliability of these findings is unclear due to possible sampling bias. Moreover, the value of genetic and environmental data in predicting transition to psychosis from an ARMS is yet to be explored.

METHODS

In this study we aimed to predict transition to psychosis from an ARMS using a combination of ML, sMRI, genome-wide genotypes, and environmental risk factors as predictors, in a sample drawn from a pool of 246 ARMS subjects (60 of whom later transitioned to psychosis). First, the modality-specific values in predicting transition to psychosis were evaluated using several: (a) feature types; (b) feature manipulation strategies; (c) ML algorithms; (d) cross-validation strategies, as well as sample balancing and bootstrapping. Subsequently, the modalities whose at least 60% of the classification models showed an balanced accuracy (BAC) statistically better than chance level were included in a multimodal classification model.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Results showed that none of the modalities alone, i.e., neuroimaging, genetic or environmental data, could predict psychosis from an ARMS statistically better than chance and, as such, no multimodal classification model was trained/tested. These results suggest that the value of structural MRI data and genome-wide genotypes in predicting psychosis from an ARMS, which has been fostered by previous evidence, should be reconsidered.

Polygenic risk scores across the extended psychosis spectrum

As early detection of symptoms in the subclinical to clinical psychosis spectrum may improve health outcomes, knowing the probabilistic susceptibility of developing a disorder could guide mitigation measures and clinical intervention. In this context, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) quantifying the additive effects of multiple common genetic variants hold the potential to predict complex diseases and index severity gradients. PRSs for schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) were computed using Bayesian regression and continuous shrinkage priors based on the latest SZ and BD genome-wide association studies (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, third release). Eight well-phenotyped groups (n = 1580; 56% males) were assessed: control (n = 305), lower (n = 117) and higher (n = 113) schizotypy (both groups of healthy individuals), at-risk for psychosis (n = 120), BD type-I (n = 359), BD type-II (n = 96), schizoaffective disorder (n = 86), and SZ groups (n = 384). PRS differences were investigated for binary traits and the quantitative Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Both BD-PRS and SZ-PRS significantly differentiated controls from at-risk and clinical groups (Nagelkerke's pseudo-R2: 1.3-7.7%), except for BD type-II for SZ-PRS. Out of 28 pairwise comparisons for SZ-PRS and BD-PRS, 9 and 12, respectively, reached the Bonferroni-corrected significance. BD-PRS differed between control and at-risk groups, but not between at-risk and BD type-I groups. There was no difference between controls and schizotypy. SZ-PRSs, but not BD-PRSs, were positively associated with transdiagnostic symptomology. Overall, PRSs support the continuum model across the psychosis spectrum at the genomic level with possible irregularities for schizotypy. The at-risk state demands heightened clinical attention and research addressing symptom course specifiers. Continued efforts are needed to refine the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of PRSs in mental healthcare.