Estimating time since infection in early homogeneous HIV-1 samples using a poisson model

Higher HIV-1 evolutionary rate is associated with cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutations in infants

Escape from cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses toward HIV-1 Gag and Nef has been associated with reduced control of HIV-1 replication in adults. However, less is known about CTL-driven immune selection in infants as longitudinal studies of infants are limited. Here, 1,210 gag and 1,264 nef sequences longitudinally collected within 15 months after birth from 14 HIV-1 perinatally infected infants and their mothers were analyzed. The number of transmitted founder (T/F) viruses and associations between virus evolution, selection, CTL escape, and disease progression were determined. The analyses indicated that a paraphyletic-monophyletic relationship between the mother-infant sequences was common (80%), and that the HIV-1 infection was established by a single T/F virus in 10 of the 12 analyzed infants (83%). Furthermore, most HIV-1 CTL escape mutations among infants were transmitted from the mothers and did not revert during the first year of infection. Still, immune-driven selection was observed at approximately 3 months after HIV-1 infection in infants. Moreover, virus populations with CTL escape mutations in gag evolved faster than those without, independently of disease progression rate. These findings expand the current knowledge of HIV-1 transmission, evolution, and CTL escape in infant HIV-1 infection and are relevant for the development of immune-directed interventions in infants.IMPORTANCEDespite increased coverage in antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of perinatal transmission, paediatric HIV-1 infection remains a significant public health concern, especially in areas of high HIV-1 prevalence. Understanding HIV-1 transmission and the subsequent virus adaptation from the mother to the infant's host environment, as well as the viral factors that affect disease outcome, is important for the development of early immune-directed interventions for infants. This study advances our understanding of vertical HIV-1 transmission, and how infant immune selection pressure is shaping the intra-host evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1.

Autologous neutralizing antibody responses after antiretroviral therapy in acute and early HIV-1

BACKGROUNDEarly antiretroviral therapy initiation (ARTi) in HIV-1 restricts reservoir size and diversity while preserving immune function, potentially improving opportunities for immunotherapeutic cure strategies. For antibody-based cure approaches, the development of autologous neutralizing antibodies (anAbs) after acute/early ARTi is relevant but is poorly understood.METHODSWe characterized antibody responses in a cohort of 23 participants following ARTi in acute HIV (<60 days after acquisition) and early HIV (60-128 days after acquisition).RESULTSPlasma virus sequences at the time of ARTi revealed evidence of escape from anAbs after early, but not acute, ARTi. HIV-1 envelopes representing the transmitted/founder virus(es) (acute ARTi) or escape variants (early ARTi) were tested for sensitivity to longitudinal plasma IgG. After acute ARTi, no anAb responses developed over months to years of suppressive ART. In 2 of the 3 acute ARTi participants who experienced viremia after ARTi, however, anAbs arose shortly thereafter. After early ARTi, anAbs targeting those early variants developed between 12 and 42 weeks of ART and continued to increase in breadth and potency thereafter.CONCLUSIONResults indicate a threshold of virus replication (~60 days) required to induce anAbs, after which they continue to expand on suppressive ART to better target the range of reservoir variants.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02656511.FUNDINGNIH grants U01AI169767, R01AI162646, UM1AI164570, UM1AI164560, U19AI096109, K23GM112526, T32AI118684, P30AI045008, P30AI027763, R24AI067039; Gilead Sciences grant INUS2361354; Viiv Healthcare grant A126326.

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source's infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model-which make use of different information within a tree-suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

Transmission of highly virulent CXCR4 tropic HIV-1 through the mucosal route in an individual with a wild-type CCR5 genotype

Nearly all transmitted/founder (T/F) HIV-1 are CCR5 (R5)-tropic. While previous evidence suggested that CXCR4 (X4)-tropic HIV-1 are transmissible, detection was not at the earliest stages of acute infection. Here, we identified an X4-tropic T/F HIV-1 in a participant in acute infection cohort. Coreceptor assays demonstrated that this T/F virus is strictly CXCR4 tropic. The participant experienced significantly faster CD4 depletion compared with R5 virus infected participants in the same cohort. Naïve and central memory CD4 subsets declined faster than effector and transitional memory subsets. All CD4 subsets, including naïve, were productively infected. Increased CD4+ T cell activation was observed over time. This X4-tropic T/F virus is resistant to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting V1/V2 and V3 regions. These findings demonstrate that X4-tropic HIV-1 is transmissible through the mucosal route in people with the wild-type CCR5 genotype and have implications for understanding the transmissibility and immunopathogenesis of X4-tropic HIV-1.

Transmission of highly virulent CXCR4 tropic HIV-1 through the mucosal route in an individual with a wild-type CCR5 genotype

Nearly all transmitted/founder (T/F) HIV-1 are CCR5 (R5)-tropic. While previous evidence suggested that CXCR4 (X4)-tropic HIV-1 are transmissible, detection was not at the earliest stages of acute infection. Here, we identified an X4-tropic T/F HIV-1 in a participant in acute infection cohort. Coreceptor assays demonstrated that this T/F virus is strictly CXCR4 tropic. The participant experienced significantly faster CD4 depletion compared with R5 virus infected participants in the same cohort. Naïve and central memory CD4 subsets declined faster than effector and transitional memory subsets. All CD4 subsets, including naïve, were productively infected. Increased CD4 + T cell activation was observed over time. This X4-tropic T/F virus is resistant to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting V1/V2 and V3 regions. These findings demonstrate that X4-tropic HIV-1 is transmissible through the mucosal route in people with the wild-type CCR5 genotype and have implications for understanding the transmissibility and immunopathogenesis of X4-tropic HIV-1.

Pharmacokinetic serum concentrations of VRC01 correlate with prevention of HIV-1 acquisition

BACKGROUND

The phase 2b proof-of-concept Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials showed that VRC01, an anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralising antibody (bnAb), prevented acquisition of HIV-1 sensitive to VRC01. To inform future study design and dosing regimen selection of candidate bnAbs, we investigated the association of VRC01 serum concentration with HIV-1 acquisition using AMP trial data.

METHODS

The case-control sample included 107 VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1 and 82 VRC01 recipients who remained without HIV-1 during the study. We measured VRC01 serum concentrations with a qualified pharmacokinetic (PK) Binding Antibody Multiplex Assay. We employed nonlinear mixed effects PK modelling to estimate daily-grid VRC01 concentrations. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of VRC01 concentration at exposure and baseline body weight, with the hazard of HIV-1 acquisition and prevention efficacy as a function of VRC01 concentration. We also compared fixed dosing vs. body weight-based dosing via simulations.

FINDINGS

Estimated VRC01 concentrations in VRC01 recipients without HIV-1 were higher than those in VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1. Body weight was inversely associated with HIV-1 acquisition among both placebo and VRC01 recipients but did not modify the prevention efficacy of VRC01. VRC01 concentration was inversely correlated with HIV-1 acquisition, and positively correlated with prevention efficacy of VRC01. Simulation studies suggest that fixed dosing may be comparable to weight-based dosing in overall predicted prevention efficacy.

INTERPRETATION

These findings suggest that bnAb serum concentration may be a useful marker for dosing regimen selection, and operationally efficient fixed dosing regimens could be considered for future trials of HIV-1 bnAbs.

FUNDING

Was provided by the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1 AI068614, to the HIV Vaccine Trials Network [HVTN]; UM1 AI068635, to the HVTN Statistical Data and Management Center [SDMC], Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center [FHCC]; 2R37 054165 to the FHCC; UM1 AI068618, to HVTN Laboratory Center, FHCC; UM1 AI068619, to the HPTN Leadership and Operations Center; UM1 AI068613, to the HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] Laboratory Center; UM1 AI068617, to the HPTN SDMC; and P30 AI027757, to the Center for AIDS Research, Duke University (AI P30 AI064518) and University of Washington (P30 AI027757) Centers for AIDS Research; R37AI054165 from NIAID to the FHCC; and OPP1032144 CA-VIMC Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Semiparametric additive time-varying coefficients model for longitudinal data with censored time origin

Statistical analysis of longitudinal data often involves modeling treatment effects on clinically relevant longitudinal biomarkers since an initial event (the time origin). In some studies including preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trials, some participants have biomarkers measured starting at the time origin, whereas others have biomarkers measured starting later with the time origin unknown. The semiparametric additive time-varying coefficient model is investigated where the effects of some covariates vary nonparametrically with time while the effects of others remain constant. Weighted profile least squares estimators coupled with kernel smoothing are developed. The method uses the expectation maximization approach to deal with the censored time origin. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and other failure time regression models such as the Cox model can be utilized to estimate the distribution and the conditional distribution of left censored event time related to the censored time origin. Asymptotic properties of the parametric and nonparametric estimators and consistent asymptotic variance estimators are derived. A two-stage estimation procedure for choosing weight is proposed to improve estimation efficiency. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. The simulation results show that the theory and methods work well. The efficiency gain of the two-stage estimation procedure depends on the distribution of the longitudinal error processes. The method is applied to analyze data from the Merck 023/HVTN 502 Step HIV vaccine study.

Recombination smooths the time signal disrupted by latency in within-host HIV phylogenies

Within-host Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolution involves several features that may disrupt standard phylogenetic reconstruction. One important feature is reactivation of latently integrated provirus, which has the potential to disrupt the temporal signal, leading to variation in the branch lengths and apparent evolutionary rates in a tree. Yet, real within-host HIV phylogenies tend to show clear, ladder-like trees structured by the time of sampling. Another important feature is recombination, which violates the fundamental assumption that evolutionary history can be represented by a single bifurcating tree. Thus, recombination complicates the within-host HIV dynamic by mixing genomes and creating evolutionary loop structures that cannot be represented in a bifurcating tree. In this paper, we develop a coalescent-based simulator of within-host HIV evolution that includes latency, recombination, and effective population size dynamics that allows us to study the relationship between the true, complex genealogy of within-host HIV evolution, encoded as an ancestral recombination graph (ARG), and the observed phylogenetic tree. To compare our ARG results to the familiar phylogeny format, we calculate the expected bifurcating tree after decomposing the ARG into all unique site trees, their combined distance matrix, and the overall corresponding bifurcating tree. While latency and recombination separately disrupt the phylogenetic signal, remarkably, we find that recombination recovers the temporal signal of within-host HIV evolution caused by latency by mixing fragments of old, latent genomes into the contemporary population. In effect, recombination averages over extant heterogeneity, whether it stems from mixed time signals or population bottlenecks. Furthermore, we establish that the signals of latency and recombination can be observed in phylogenetic trees despite being an incorrect representation of the true evolutionary history. Using an approximate Bayesian computation method, we develop a set of statistical probes to tune our simulation model to nine longitudinally sampled within-host HIV phylogenies. Because ARGs are exceedingly difficult to infer from real HIV data, our simulation system allows investigating effects of latency, recombination, and population size bottlenecks by matching decomposed ARGs to real data as observed in standard phylogenies.

Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker-which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual's serum against an HIV-1 isolate-can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

Patterns of within-host genetic diversity in SARS-CoV-2

Monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reconstructing transmission chains has become a major public health focus for many governments around the world. The modest mutation rate and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 prevents the reconstruction of transmission chains from consensus genome sequences, but within-host genetic diversity could theoretically help identify close contacts. Here we describe the patterns of within-host diversity in 1181 SARS-CoV-2 samples sequenced to high depth in duplicate. 95.1% of samples show within-host mutations at detectable allele frequencies. Analyses of the mutational spectra revealed strong strand asymmetries suggestive of damage or RNA editing of the plus strand, rather than replication errors, dominating the accumulation of mutations during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Within- and between-host diversity show strong purifying selection, particularly against nonsense mutations. Recurrent within-host mutations, many of which coincide with known phylogenetic homoplasies, display a spectrum and patterns of purifying selection more suggestive of mutational hotspots than recombination or convergent evolution. While allele frequencies suggest that most samples result from infection by a single lineage, we identify multiple putative examples of co-infection. Integrating these results into an epidemiological inference framework, we find that while sharing of within-host variants between samples could help the reconstruction of transmission chains, mutational hotspots and rare cases of superinfection can confound these analyses.

Different evolutionary pathways of HIV-1 between fetus and mother perinatal transmission pairs indicate unique immune selection in fetuses

Study of evolution and selection pressure on HIV-1 in fetuses will lead to a better understanding of the role of immune responses in shaping virus evolution and vertical transmission. Detailed genetic analyses of HIV-1 env gene from 12 in utero transmission pairs show that most infections (67%) occur within 2 months of childbirth. In addition, the env sequences from long-term-infected fetuses are highly divergent and form separate phylogenetic lineages from their cognate maternal viruses. Host-selection sites unique to neonate viruses are identified in regions frequently targeted by neutralizing antibodies and T cell immune responses. Identification of unique selection sites in the env gene of fetal viruses indicates that the immune system in fetuses is capable of exerting selection pressure on viral evolution. Studying selection and evolution of HIV-1 or other viruses in fetuses can be an alternative approach to investigate adaptive immunity in fetuses.

Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model

Clinical trials for HIV prevention can require knowledge of infection times to subsequently determine protective drug levels. Yet, infection timing is difficult when study visits are sparse. Using population nonlinear mixed-effects (pNLME) statistical inference and viral loads from 46 RV217 study participants, we developed a relatively simple HIV primary infection model that achieved an excellent fit to all data. We also discovered that Aptima assay values from the study strongly correlated with viral loads, enabling imputation of very early viral loads for 28/46 participants. Estimated times between infecting exposures and first positives were generally longer than prior estimates (average of two weeks) and were robust to missing viral upslope data. On simulated data, we found that tighter sampling before diagnosis improved estimation more than tighter sampling after diagnosis. Sampling weekly before and monthly after diagnosis was a pragmatic design for good timing accuracy. Our pNLME timing approach is widely applicable to other infections with existing mathematical models. The present model could be used to simulate future HIV trials and may help estimate protective thresholds from the recently completed antibody-mediated prevention trials.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus from People Who Inject Drugs in Indonesia, Ukraine, and Vietnam: HPTN 074

BACKGROUND

HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 074 evaluated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention interventions for people who inject drugs (PWID) in Indonesia, Ukraine, and Vietnam. Study interventions included support for HIV infection and substance use treatment. The study enrolled index participants living with HIV and injection partners who were not living with HIV. Seven partners acquired HIV infection during the study (seroconverters). We analyzed the phylogenetic relatedness between HIV strains in the cohort and the multiplicity of infection in seroconverters.

METHODS

Pol region consensus sequences were used for phylogenetic analysis. Data from next-generation sequencing (NGS, env region) were used to evaluate genetic linkage of HIV from the 7 seroconverters and the corresponding index participants (index-partner pairs), to analyze HIV from index participants in pol sequence clusters, and to analyze multiplicity of HIV infection.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis of pol sequences from 445 index participants and 7 seroconverters identified 18 sequence clusters (2 index-partner pairs, 1 partner-partner pair, and 15 index-only groups with 2-7 indexes/cluster). Analysis of NGS data confirmed linkage for the 2 index-partner pairs, the partner-partner pair, and 11 of the 15 index-index clusters. The remaining 5 seroconverters had infections that were not linked to the corresponding enrolled index participant. Three (42.9%) of the 7 seroconverters were infected with more than 1 HIV strain (3-8 strains per person).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified complex patterns of HIV clustering and linkage among PWID in 3 communities. This should be considered when designing strategies for HIV prevention for PWID.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02935296.

Differential utilization of CD4+ by transmitted/founder and chronic envelope glycoproteins in a MSM HIV-1 subtype B transmission cluster

OBJECTIVE

HIV-1 transmission leads to a genetic bottleneck, with one or a few variants of the donor quasispecies establishing an infection in the new host. We aimed to characterize this bottleneck in more detail, by comparing the properties of HIV envelope glycoproteins from acute and chronic infections within the particular context of a male-to-male transmission cluster.

DESIGN

We compared the genotypic and phenotypic properties of envelope glycoproteins from viral variants derived from five study participants from the same transmission cluster.

METHODS

We used single-genome amplification to generate a collection of full-length env sequences. We then constructed pseudotyped viruses expressing selected Env variants from the quasispecies infecting each study participant and compared their infectivities and sensitivities to various entry inhibitors.

RESULTS

The genotypic analyses confirmed the genetic bottleneck expected after HIV transmission, with a limited number of variants identified in four study participants during acute infection. However, the transmitted sequences harbored no evident common signature and belonged to various genetic lineages. The phenotypic analyses revealed no difference in infectivity, susceptibility to the CCR5 antagonist maraviroc, the fusion inhibitor enfurvitide or type-I interferon between viruses from participants with acute and chronic infections. The key property distinguishing transmitted viruses was a higher resistance to soluble CD4, correlated with greater sensitivity to occupation of the CD4 receptor by the anti-CD4 antibodies LM52 and SK3.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that envelope glycoproteins from transmitted/founder viruses bind CD4 less efficiently than those of viruses from chronic infections.

Getting more from heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data in a high immigration country: estimation of incidence and undiagnosed population size using multiple biomarkers

Background

Most HIV infections originate from individuals who are undiagnosed and unaware of their infection. Estimation of this quantity from surveillance data is hard because there is incomplete knowledge about (i) the time between infection and diagnosis (TI) for the general population, and (ii) the time between immigration and diagnosis for foreign-born persons.

Methods

We developed a new statistical method for estimating the incidence of HIV-1 and the number of undiagnosed people living with HIV (PLHIV), based on dynamic modelling of heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data. The methods consist of a Bayesian non-linear mixed effects model using multiple biomarkers to estimate TI of HIV-1-positive individuals, and a novel incidence estimator which distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous infections by modelling explicitly the probability that a foreign-born person was infected either before or after immigration. The incidence estimator allows for direct calculation of the number of undiagnosed persons. The new methodology is illustrated combining heterogeneous surveillance data from Sweden between 2003 and 2015.

Results

A leave-one-out cross-validation study showed that the multiple-biomarker model was more accurate than single biomarkers (mean absolute error 1.01 vs ≥1.95). We estimate that 816 [95% credible interval (CI) 775-865] PLHIV were undiagnosed in 2015, representing a proportion of 10.8% (95% CI 10.3-11.4%) of all PLHIV.

Conclusions

The proposed methodology will enhance the utility of standard surveillance data streams and will be useful to monitor progress towards and compliance with the 90–90-90 UNAIDS target.

HIV infects astrocytes in vivo and egresses from the brain to the periphery

HIV invades the brain during acute infection. Yet, it is unknown whether long-lived infected brain cells release productive virus that can egress from the brain to re-seed peripheral organs. This understanding has significant implication for the brain as a reservoir for HIV and most importantly HIV interplay between the brain and peripheral organs. Given the sheer number of astrocytes in the human brain and their controversial role in HIV infection, we evaluated their infection in vivo and whether HIV infected astrocytes can support HIV egress to peripheral organs. We developed two novel models of chimeric human astrocyte/human peripheral blood mononuclear cells: NOD/scid-IL-2Rgc null (NSG) mice (huAstro/HuPBMCs) whereby we transplanted HIV (non-pseudotyped or VSVg-pseudotyped) infected or uninfected primary human fetal astrocytes (NHAs) or an astrocytoma cell line (U138MG) into the brain of neonate or adult NSG mice and reconstituted the animals with human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). We also transplanted uninfected astrocytes into the brain of NSG mice and reconstituted with infected PBMCs to mimic a biological infection course. As expected, the xenotransplanted astrocytes did not escape/migrate out of the brain and the blood brain barrier (BBB) was intact in this model. We demonstrate that astrocytes support HIV infection in vivo and egress to peripheral organs, at least in part, through trafficking of infected CD4+ T cells out of the brain. Astrocyte-derived HIV egress persists, albeit at low levels, under combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Egressed HIV evolved with a pattern and rate typical of acute peripheral infection. Lastly, analysis of human cortical or hippocampal brain regions of donors under cART revealed that astrocytes harbor between 0.4–5.2% integrated HIV gag DNA and 2–7% are HIV gag mRNA positive. These studies establish a paradigm shift in the dynamic interaction between the brain and peripheral organs which can inform eradication of HIV reservoirs.

HIV latency and residual low-level HIV replication is a major obstacle towards an HIV cure. HIV infects the brain in acute disease yet it is unknown whether long lived-infected brain cells release productive virus that can egress from the brain to re-seed peripheral organs and whether astrocytes are productively infected in vivo. We demonstrate astrocyte-initiated HIV spread from the brain to the spleen and lymph nodes, likely through T cell trafficking out of CNS and into peripheral organs. Additionally, brain sections from patients on cART show HIV integration in astrocytes. Collectively, given that astrocytes constitute ~60% of brain cells and even with a conservative rate of infection at >3%, astrocytes can be a significant reservoir for HIV. As such, cure initiatives must consider the contribution of the CNS to ongoing HIV replication within and outside of the brain.

Estimating the Timing of Early Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections: a Comparison between Poisson Fitter and BEAST

Many HIV prevention strategies are currently under consideration where it is highly informative to know the study participants' times of infection. These can be estimated using viral sequence data sampled early in infection. However, there are several scenarios that, if not addressed, can skew timing estimates. These include multiple transmitted/founder (TF) viruses, APOBEC (apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like)-mediated mutational enrichment, and recombination. Here, we suggest a pipeline to identify these problems and resolve the biases that they introduce. We then compare two modeling strategies to obtain timing estimates from sequence data. The first, Poisson Fitter (PF), is based on a Poisson model of random accumulation of mutations relative to the TF virus (or viruses) that established the infection. The second uses a coalescence-based phylogenetic strategy as implemented in BEAST. The comparison is based on timing predictions using plasma viral RNA (cDNA) sequence data from 28 simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV)-infected animals for which the exact day of infection is known. In this particular setting, based on nucleotide sequences from samples obtained in early infection, the Poisson method yielded more accurate, more precise, and unbiased estimates for the time of infection than did the explored implementations of BEAST.IMPORTANCE The inference of the time of infection is a critical parameter in testing the efficacy of clinical interventions in protecting against HIV-1 infection. For example, in clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of passively delivered antibodies (Abs) for preventing infections, accurate time of infection data are essential for discerning levels of the Abs required to confer protection, given the natural Ab decay rate in the human body. In such trials, genetic sequences from early in the infection are regularly sampled from study participants, generally prior to immune selection, when the viral population is still expanding and genetic diversity is low. In this particular setting of early viral growth, the Poisson method is superior to the alternative approach based on coalescent methods. This approach can also be applied in human vaccine trials, where accurate estimates of infection times help ascertain if vaccine-elicited immune protection wanes over time.

Maternal Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies Can Select for Neutralization-Resistant, Infant-Transmitted/Founder HIV Variants

Each year, >180,000 infants become infected via mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV despite the availability of effective maternal antiretroviral treatments, underlining the need for a maternal HIV vaccine. We characterized 224 maternal HIV envelope (Env)-specific IgG monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) from seven nontransmitting and transmitting HIV-infected U.S. and Malawian mothers and examined their neutralization activities against nontransmitted autologous circulating viruses and infant-transmitted founder (infant-T/F) viruses. Only a small subset of maternal viruses, 3 of 72 (4%), were weakly neutralized by maternal linear V3 epitope-specific IgG MAbs, whereas 6 out of 6 (100%) infant-T/F viruses were neutralization resistant to these V3-specific IgG MAbs. We also show that maternal-plasma broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) responses targeting the V3 glycan supersite in a transmitting woman may have selected for an N332 V3 glycan neutralization-resistant infant-T/F virus. These data have important implications for bNAb-eliciting vaccines and passively administered bNAbs in the setting of MTCT.IMPORTANCE Efforts to eliminate MTCT of HIV with antiretroviral therapy (ART) have met little success, with >180,000 infant infections each year worldwide. It is therefore likely that additional immunologic strategies that can synergize with ART will be required to eliminate MTCT of HIV. To this end, understanding the role of maternal HIV Env-specific IgG antibodies in the setting of MTCT is crucial. In this study, we found that maternal-plasma broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) responses can select for T/F viruses that initiate infection in infants. We propose that clinical trials testing the efficacy of single bNAb specificities should not include HIV-infected pregnant women, as a single bNAb might select for neutralization-resistant infant-T/F viruses.

Molecular dating and viral load growth rates suggested that the eclipse phase lasted about a week in HIV-1 infected adults in East Africa and Thailand

Most HIV-1 infected individuals do not know their infection dates. Precise infection timing is crucial information for studies that document transmission networks or drug levels at infection. To improve infection timing, we used the prospective RV217 cohort where the window when plasma viremia becomes detectable is narrow: the last negative visit occurred a median of four days before the first detectable HIV-1 viremia with an RNA test, referred below as diagnosis. We sequenced 1,280 HIV-1 genomes from 39 participants at a median of 4, 32 and 170 days post-diagnosis. HIV-1 infections were dated by using sequence-based methods and a viral load regression method. Bayesian coalescent and viral load regression estimated that infections occurred a median of 6 days prior to diagnosis (IQR: 9–3 and 11–4 days prior, respectively). Poisson-Fitter, which analyzes the distribution of hamming distances among sequences, estimated a median of 7 days prior to diagnosis (IQR: 15–4 days) based on sequences sampled 4 days post-diagnosis, but it did not yield plausible results using sequences sampled at 32 days. Fourteen participants reported a high-risk exposure event at a median of 8 days prior to diagnosis (IQR: 12 to 6 days prior). These different methods concurred that HIV-1 infection occurred about a week before detectable viremia, corresponding to 20 days (IQR: 34–15 days) before peak viral load. Together, our methods comparison helps define a framework for future dating studies in early HIV-1 infection.

HIV-1 infected individuals rarely know when they became infected but knowing when an infection occurred provides critical information regarding HIV-1 pathogenesis and epidemiology. Using a unique cohort in which infection was known to have occurred in a narrow interval, we investigated methods to estimate the timing of infections. Several methods suggested that HIV-1 infection typically occurs a median of one week before the infection can be detected by HIV-1 RNA testing. Going forward, we provide a strategy that can be used to elucidate the origin of an acute/early infection.

Estimating the basic reproduction number of a pathogen in a single host when only a single founder successfully infects

If viruses or other pathogens infect a single host, the outcome of infection may depend on the initial basic reproduction number R₀, the expected number of host cells infected by a single infected cell. This article shows that sometimes, phylogenetic models can estimate the initial R₀, using only sequences sampled from the pathogenic population during its exponential growth or shortly thereafter. When evaluated by simulations mimicking the bursting viral reproduction of HIV and simultaneous sampling of HIV gp120 sequences during early viremia, the estimated R₀ displayed useful accuracies in achievable experimental designs. Estimates of R₀ have several potential applications to investigators interested in the progress of infection in single hosts, including: (1) timing a pathogen’s movement through different microenvironments; (2) timing the change points in a pathogen’s mode of spread (e.g., timing the change from cell-free spread to cell-to-cell spread, or vice versa, in an HIV infection); (3) quantifying the impact different initial microenvironments have on pathogens (e.g., in mucosal challenge with HIV, quantifying the impact that the presence or absence of mucosal infection has on R₀); (4) quantifying subtle changes in infectability in therapeutic trials (either human or animal), even when therapies do not produce total sterilizing immunity; and (5) providing a variable predictive of the clinical efficacy of prophylactic therapies.

Genetically barcoded SIV reveals the emergence of escape mutations in multiple viral lineages during immune escape

The rapidity of replication coupled with a high mutation rate enables HIV to evade selective pressures imposed by host immune responses. Investigating the ability of HIV to escape different selection forces has generally relied on population-level measures, such as the time to detectable escape mutations in plasma and the rate these mutations subsequently take over the virus population. Here we employed a barcoded synthetic swarm of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) in rhesus macaques to investigate the generation and selection of escape mutations within individual viral lineages at the Mamu-A*01-restricted Tat-SL8 epitope. We observed the persistence of more than 1,000 different barcode lineages following selection after acquiring escape mutations. Furthermore, the increased resolution into the virus population afforded by barcode analysis revealed changes in the population structure of the viral quasispecies as it adapted to immune pressure. The high frequency of emergence of escape mutations in parallel viral lineages at the Tat-SL8 epitope highlights the challenge posed by viral escape for the development of T cell-based vaccines. Importantly, the level of viral replication required for generating escape mutations in individual lineages can be directly estimated using the barcoded virus, thereby identifying the level of efficacy required for a successful vaccine to limit escape. Overall, assessing the survival of barcoded viral lineages during selection provides a direct and quantitative measure of the stringency of the underlying genetic bottleneck, making it possible to predict the ability of the virus to escape selective forces induced by host immune responses as well as during therapeutic interventions.

HIV-1 genetic diversity to estimate time of infection and infer adherence to preexposure prophylaxis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate time of HIV infection in participants from the Bangkok Tenofovir Study (BTS) with daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and relate infection with adherence patterns.

DESIGN

We used the diversity structure of the virus population at the first HIV RNA-positive sample to estimate the date of infection, and mapped these estimates to medication diaries obtained under daily directly observed therapy (DOT).

METHODS

HIV genetic diversity was investigated in all 17 PrEP breakthrough infections and in 16 placebo recipients. We generated 10-25 HIV env sequences from each participant by single genome amplification, and calculated time since infection (and 95% confidence interval) using Poisson models of early virus evolution. Study medication diaries obtained under daily DOT were then used to compute the number of missed TDF doses at the approximate date of infection.

RESULTS

Fifteen of the 17 PrEP breakthrough infections were successfully amplified. Of these, 13 were initiated by a single genetic variant and generated reliable estimates of time since infection (median = 47 [IQR = 35] days). Eleven of these 13 were under daily DOT at the estimated time of infection. Analysis of medication diaries in these 11 participants showed 100% adherence in five, 90-95% adherence in two, 55% adherence in one, and nonadherence in three.

CONCLUSION

We estimated time of infection in participants from BTS and found several infections when high levels of adherence to TDF were reported. Our results suggest that the biological efficacy of daily TDF against parenteral HIV exposure is not 100%.

Completeness of HIV-1 Envelope Glycan Shield at Transmission Determines Neutralization Breadth

Densely arranged N-linked glycans shield the HIV-1 envelope (Env) trimer from antibody recognition. Strain-specific breaches in this shield (glycan holes) can be targets of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies that lack breadth. To understand the interplay between glycan holes and neutralization breadth in HIV-1 infection, we developed a sequence-and structure-based approach to identify glycan holes for individual Env sequences that are shielded in most M-group viruses. Applying this approach to 12 longitudinally followed individuals, we found that transmitted viruses with more intact glycan shields correlated with development of greater neutralization breadth. Within 2 years, glycan acquisition filled most glycan holes present at transmission, indicating escape from hole-targeting neutralizing antibodies. Glycan hole filling generally preceded the time to first detectable breadth, although time intervals varied across hosts. Thus, completely glycan-shielded viruses were associated with accelerated neutralization breadth development, suggesting that Env immunogens with intact glycan shields may be preferred components of AIDS vaccines.

Wagh et al. show that transmitted viruses with more intact glycan shields are correlated with development of neutralization breadth in HIV-1-infected individuals. This is consistent with previous findings that glycan holes in Env immunogens are targeted by strain-specific neutralizing responses, and suggests that immunogens with intact glycan Shields may be advantageous.

HIV-1 genetic diversity and divergence and its correlation with disease progression among antiretroviral naïve recently infected individuals

HIV-1 genetic diversity evolution was deeply characterized during the first year of infection among recently-infected patients using deep sequencing technology and correlated with disease progression surrogate markers. RNA and DNA samples from twenty-five individuals (13 female) encoding the protease and reverse transcriptase regions of the pol gene, and the V3 region of the env gene were evaluated at recent infection and during established infection. Infection by a unique HIV-1 strain was inferred in 70.1% of the individuals, with no differences between genders. Infections by multiple strains were associated with higher viral loads and faster CD4⁺ T cell declines. Either low or high levels of viral loads accompanied low levels of genetic diversity and lower selective pressure. With massive sequence data from 3 distinct genomic HIV-1 regions from plasma and PBMCs over time, we propose a model for HIV-1 genetic diversity, which correlates to basal viral loads of patients.

Combining Viral Genetics and Statistical Modeling to Improve HIV-1 Time-of-infection Estimation towards Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy Assessment

Knowledge of the time of HIV-1 infection and the multiplicity of viruses that establish HIV-1 infection is crucial for the in-depth analysis of clinical prevention efficacy trial outcomes. Better estimation methods would improve the ability to characterize immunological and genetic sequence correlates of efficacy within preventive efficacy trials of HIV-1 vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We developed new methods for infection timing and multiplicity estimation using maximum likelihood estimators that shift and scale (calibrate) estimates by fitting true infection times and founder virus multiplicities to a linear regression model with independent variables defined by data on HIV-1 sequences, viral load, diagnostics, and sequence alignment statistics. Using Poisson models of measured mutation counts and phylogenetic trees, we analyzed longitudinal HIV-1 sequence data together with diagnostic and viral load data from the RV217 and CAPRISA 002 acute HIV-1 infection cohort studies. We used leave-one-out cross validation to evaluate the prediction error of these calibrated estimators versus that of existing estimators and found that both infection time and founder multiplicity can be estimated with improved accuracy and precision by calibration. Calibration considerably improved all estimators of time since HIV-1 infection, in terms of reducing bias to near zero and reducing root mean squared error (RMSE) to 5-10 days for sequences collected 1-2 months after infection. The calibration of multiplicity assessments yielded strong improvements with accurate predictions (ROC-AUC above 0.85) in all cases. These results have not yet been validated on external data, and the best-fitting models are likely to be less robust than simpler models to variation in sequencing conditions. For all evaluated models, these results demonstrate the value of calibration for improved estimation of founder multiplicity and of time since HIV-1 infection.

Lower Broadly Neutralizing Antibody Responses in Female Versus Male HIV-1 Infected Injecting Drug Users

Understanding the factors involved in the development of broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) responses in natural infection can guide vaccine design aimed at eliciting protective bNAb responses. Most of the studies to identify and study the development of bNAb responses have been performed in individuals who had become infected via homo- or heterosexual HIV-1 transmission; however, the prevalence and characteristics of bNAb responses in injecting drug users (IDUs) have been underrepresented. We retrospectively studied the prevalence of bNAb responses in HIV-1 infected individuals in the Amsterdam Cohort, including 50 male and 35 female participants who reported injecting drug use as the only risk factor. Our study revealed a significantly lower prevalence of bNAb responses in females compared to males. Gender, transmission route and CD4+ count at set point, but not viral load, were independently associated with the development of bNAb responses in IDUs. To further explore the influences of gender in the setting of IDU, we also looked into the Swiss 4.5k Screen. There we observed lower bNAb responses in female IDUs as well. These results reveal that the emergence of bNAbs may be dependent on multiple factors, including gender. Therefore, the effect of gender on the development of bNAb responses is a factor that should be taken into account when designing vaccine efficacy trials.

An accurate approximation for the expected site frequency spectrum in a Galton-Watson process under an infinite sites mutation model

If viruses or other pathogens infect a single host, the outcome of infection often hinges on the fate of the initial invaders. The initial basic reproduction number R₀, the expected number of cells infected by a single infected cell, helps determine whether the initial viruses can establish a successful beachhead. To determine R₀, the Kingman coalescent or continuous-time birth-and-death process can be used to infer the rate of exponential growth in an historical population. Given M sequences sampled in the present, the two models can make the inference from the site frequency spectrum (SFS), the count of mutations that appear in exactly k sequences (k=1,2,…,M). In the case of viruses, however, if R₀ is large and an infected cell bursts while propagating virus, the two models are suspect, because they are Markovian with only binary branching. Accordingly, this article develops an approximation for the SFS of a discrete-time branching process with synchronous generations (i.e., a Galton-Watson process). When evaluated in simulations with an asynchronous, non-Markovian model (a Bellman-Harris process) with parameters intended to mimic the bursting viral reproduction of HIV, the approximation proved superior to approximations derived from the Kingman coalescent or continuous-time birth-and-death process. This article demonstrates that in analogy to methods in human genetics, the SFS of viral sequences sampled well after latent infection can remain informative about the initial R₀. Thus, it suggests the utility of analyzing the SFS of sequences derived from patient and animal trials of viral therapies, because in some cases, the initial R₀ may be able to indicate subtle therapeutic progress, even in the absence of statistically significant differences in the infection of treatment and control groups.

Genomic characterization of hepatitis C virus transmitted founder variants with deep sequencing

Transfer of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from a donor to a new recipient is associated with a bottleneck of genetic diversity in the transmitted viral variants. Existing data suggests that one, or very few, variants emerge from this bottleneck to establish the infection (transmitted founder [T/F] variants). In HCV, very few T/F variants have been characterized due to the challenges of obtaining early infection samples and of high throughput viral genome sequencing. This study used a large, acute HCV, deep-sequenced dataset from first viremia samples collected in nine prospective cohorts across four countries, to estimate the prevalence of single T/F viruses, and to identify host and virus-related factors associated with infections initiated by a single T/F variant. The short reads generated by Illumina sequencing were used to reconstruct viral haplotypes with two haplotype reconstruction algorithms. The haplotypes were examined for random mutations (Poisson distribution) and a star-like phylogeny to identify T/F viruses. The findings were cross-validated by haplotype reconstructions across three regions of the genome (Core-E2, NS3, NS5A) to minimize the possibility of spurious overestimation of single T/F variants. Of 190 acute infection samples examined, 54 were very early acute infections (HCV antibody negative, RNA positive), and single transmitted founders were identified in 14 (26%, 95% CI: 16-39%) after cross validation across multiple regions of the genome with two haplotype reconstruction algorithms. The presence of a single T/F virus was not associated with any host or virus-related factors, notably viral genotype or spontaneous clearance. In conclusion, approximately one in four new HCV infections originates from a single T/F virus. Resolution of genomic sequences of single T/F variants is the first step in exploring unique properties of these variants in the infection of host hepatocytes.

Defining Kinetic Properties of HIV-Specific CD8⁺ T-Cell Responses in Acute Infection

Multiple lines of evidence indicate that CD8 + T cells are important in the control of HIV-1 (HIV) replication. However, CD8 + T cells induced by natural infection cannot eliminate the virus or reduce viral loads to acceptably low levels in most infected individuals. Understanding the basic quantitative features of CD8 + T-cell responses induced during HIV infection may therefore inform us about the limits that HIV vaccines, which aim to induce protective CD8 + T-cell responses, must exceed. Using previously published experimental data from a cohort of HIV-infected individuals with sampling times from acute to chronic infection we defined the quantitative properties of CD8 + T-cell responses to the whole HIV proteome. In contrast with a commonly held view, we found that the relative number of HIV-specific CD8 + T-cell responses (response breadth) changed little over the course of infection (first 400 days post-infection), with moderate but statistically significant changes occurring only during the first 35 symptomatic days. This challenges the idea that a change in the T-cell response breadth over time is responsible for the slow speed of viral escape from CD8 + T cells in the chronic infection. The breadth of HIV-specific CD8 + T-cell responses was not correlated with the average viral load for our small cohort of patients. Metrics of relative immunodominance of HIV-specific CD8 + T-cell responses such as Shannon entropy or the Evenness index were also not significantly correlated with the average viral load. Our mathematical-model-driven analysis suggested extremely slow expansion kinetics for the majority of HIV-specific CD8 + T-cell responses and the presence of intra- and interclonal competition between multiple CD8 + T-cell responses; such competition may limit the magnitude of CD8 + T-cell responses, specific to different epitopes, and the overall number of T-cell responses induced by vaccination. Further understanding of mechanisms underlying interactions between the virus and virus-specific CD8 + T-cell response will be instrumental in determining which T-cell-based vaccines will induce T-cell responses providing durable protection against HIV infection.

Molecular Identification of Transmitted/Founder Hepatitis C Viruses and Their Progeny by Single Genome Sequencing

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection exists as a complex mixture of genetically distinct viruses, commonly referred to as a "quasispecies." Quasispecies complexity can vary substantially during the course of natural infection as a consequence of viral population "bottlenecking." This occurs at the time of transmission from one individual to the next and during the course of chronic infection of an individual when adaptive immune responses eliminate certain viruses but allow others to escape and expand. Antiviral treatment with drugs that fail to eradicate virus can also lead to virus population bottlenecks and emergence of drug-resistant variants. Single genome sequencing (SGS) combined with mathematical modeling and phylogenetic inference is a recently described approach for characterizing the HCV quasispecies in unprecedented detail, allowing for the first time the retention of genetic linkage across genes and near full-length genomes and precise identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) genomes. Here, we describe the methodological approach to SGS and show how this strategy allows for the precise and unambiguous molecular identification of transmitted viruses as well as those that repopulate the body after drug or immune-mediated selective sweeps. This is an enabling experimental strategy that allows for a precise genetic, biologic, and antigenic characterization of HCV viruses that are responsible for transmission and persistence. Such an approach can be particularly valuable to future HCV vaccine design efforts, as it has been for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1).

Dynamic interactions between RNA viruses and human hosts unravelled by a decade of next generation sequencing

BACKGROUND

Next generation sequencing (NGS) methods have significantly contributed to a paradigm shift in genomic research for nearly a decade now. These methods have been useful in studying the dynamic interactions between RNA viruses and human hosts.

SCOPE OF THE REVIEW

In this review, we summarise and discuss key applications of NGS in studying the host - pathogen interactions in RNA viral infections of humans with examples.

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

Use of NGS to study globally relevant RNA viral infections have revolutionized our understanding of the within host and between host evolution of these viruses. These methods have also been useful in clinical decision-making and in guiding biomedical research on vaccine design.

GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE

NGS has been instrumental in viral genomic studies in resolving within-host viral genomic variants and the distribution of nucleotide polymorphisms along the full-length of viral genomes in a high throughput, cost effective manner. In the future, novel advances such as long read, single molecule sequencing of viral genomes and simultaneous sequencing of host and pathogens may become the standard of practice in research and clinical settings. This will also bring on new challenges in big data analysis.

Tracking HIV-1 recombination to resolve its contribution to HIV-1 evolution in natural infection

Recombination in HIV-1 is well documented, but its importance in the low-diversity setting of within-host diversification is less understood. Here we develop a novel computational tool (RAPR (Recombination Analysis PRogram)) to enable a detailed view of in vivo viral recombination during early infection, and we apply it to near-full-length HIV-1 genome sequences from longitudinal samples. Recombinant genomes rapidly replace transmitted/founder (T/F) lineages, with a median half-time of 27 days, increasing the genetic complexity of the viral population. We identify recombination hot and cold spots that differ from those observed in inter-subtype recombinants. Furthermore, RAPR analysis of longitudinal samples from an individual with well-characterized neutralizing antibody responses shows that recombination helps carry forward resistance-conferring mutations in the diversifying quasispecies. These findings provide insight into molecular mechanisms by which viral recombination contributes to HIV-1 persistence and immunopathogenesis and have implications for studies of HIV transmission and evolution in vivo.

TLR7 agonists induce transient viremia and reduce the viral reservoir in SIV-infected rhesus macaques on antiretroviral therapy

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can halt HIV-1 replication but fails to target the long-lived latent viral reservoir. Several pharmacological compounds have been evaluated for their ability to reverse HIV-1 latency, but none has demonstrably reduced the latent HIV-1 reservoir or affected viral rebound after the interruption of ART. We evaluated orally administered selective Toll-like receptor 7 (TLR7) agonists GS-986 and GS-9620 for their ability to induce transient viremia in rhesus macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) and treated with suppressive ART. In an initial dose-escalation study, and a subsequent dose-optimization study, we found that TLR7 agonists activated multiple innate and adaptive immune cell populations in addition to inducing expression of SIV RNA. We also observed TLR7 agonist-induced reductions in SIV DNA and measured inducible virus from treated animals in ex vivo cell cultures. In a second study, after stopping ART, two of nine treated animals remained aviremic for more than 2 years, even after in vivo CD8+ T cell depletion. Moreover, adoptive transfer of cells from aviremic animals could not induce de novo infection in naïve recipient macaques. These findings suggest that TLR7 agonists may facilitate reduction of the viral reservoir in a subset of SIV-infected rhesus macaques.

Infant transmitted/founder HIV-1 viruses from peripartum transmission are neutralization resistant to paired maternal plasma

Despite extensive genetic diversity of HIV-1 in chronic infection, a single or few maternal virus variants become the founders of an infant’s infection. These transmitted/founder (T/F) variants are of particular interest, as a maternal or infant HIV vaccine should raise envelope (Env) specific IgG responses capable of blocking this group of viruses. However, the maternal or infant factors that contribute to selection of infant T/F viruses are not well understood. In this study, we amplified HIV-1 env genes by single genome amplification from 16 mother-infant transmitting pairs from the U.S. pre-antiretroviral era Women Infant Transmission Study (WITS). Infant T/F and representative maternal non-transmitted Env variants from plasma were identified and used to generate pseudoviruses for paired maternal plasma neutralization sensitivity analysis. Eighteen out of 21 (85%) infant T/F Env pseudoviruses were neutralization resistant to paired maternal plasma. Yet, all infant T/F viruses were neutralization sensitive to a panel of HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies and variably sensitive to heterologous plasma neutralizing antibodies. Also, these infant T/F pseudoviruses were overall more neutralization resistant to paired maternal plasma in comparison to pseudoviruses from maternal non-transmitted variants (p = 0.012). Altogether, our findings suggest that autologous neutralization of circulating viruses by maternal plasma antibodies select for neutralization-resistant viruses that initiate peripartum transmission, raising the speculation that enhancement of this response at the end of pregnancy could further reduce infant HIV-1 infection risk.

Mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV-1 can occur during pregnancy (in utero), at the time of delivery (peripartum) or by breastfeeding (postpartum). With the availability of anti-retroviral therapy (ART), rate of MTCT of HIV-1 have been significantly lowered. However, significant implementation challenges remain in resource-poor areas, making it difficult to eliminate pediatric HIV. An improved understanding of the viral population (escape variants from autologous neutralizing antibodies) that lead to infection of infants at time of transmission will help in designing immune interventions to reduce perinatal HIV-1 transmission. Here, we selected 16 HIV-1-infected mother-infant pairs from WITS cohort (from pre anti-retroviral era), where infants became infected peripartum. HIV-1 env gene sequences were obtained by the single genome amplification (SGA) method. The sensitivity of these infant Env pseudoviruses against paired maternal plasma and a panel of broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (bNAbs) was analyzed. We demonstrated that the infant T/F viruses were more resistant against maternal plasma than non-transmitted maternal variants, but sensitive to most (bNAbs). Signature sequence analysis of infant T/F and non-transmitted maternal variants revealed the potential importance of V3 and MPER region for resistance against paired maternal plasma. These findings provide insights for the design of maternal immunization strategies to enhance neutralizing antibodies that target V3 region of autologous virus populations, which could work synergistically with maternal ARVs to further reduce the rate of peripartum HIV-1 transmission.

Analysis of HIV-1 envelope evolution suggests antibody-mediated selection of common epitopes among Chinese former plasma donors from a narrow-source outbreak

The HIV-1 envelope mutates rapidly to evade recognition and killing, and is a major target of humoral immune responses and vaccine development. Identification of common epitopes for vaccine development have been complicated by genetic variation on both virus and host levels. We studied HIV-1 envelope gp120 evolution in 12 Chinese former plasma donors infected with a purportedly single founder virus, with the aim of identifying common antibody epitopes under immune selection. We found five amino acid sites under significant positive selection in ≥50% of the study participants, and 22 sites consistent with antibody-mediated selection. Despite strong selection pressure, some sites housed a limited repertoire of amino acids. Structural modelling revealed that most of the variable amino acid sites were located on the exposed distal edge of the Gp120 trimer, whilst invariant sites clustered within the centre of the protein complex. Two sites, flanking the V3 hypervariable loop, represent novel antibody sites. Analysis of HIV-1 evolution in hosts infected with a narrow-source virus may provide insight and novel understanding of common epitopes under antibody-mediated selection. If verified in functional studies, such epitopes could be suitable as targets in vaccine development.

HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus selection bottleneck in Chinese people who inject drugs

OBJECTIVES

For both HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus (HCV), assessing the stringency of the transmission process is a scientific priority. Enumerations of transmitted/founder (TF) viruses have shown a strict transmission bottleneck in sexual transmission of HIV-1 and a wide range in the multiplicity of infection in HCV. Here, we aim to determine the stringency of parenteral transmission for HIV-1 and HCV in people who inject drugs (PWID).

DESIGN

We used molecular sequencing and several complementary analyses to enumerate the TF HIV-1 and HCV variants in a well described cohort of PWID in Xinjiang, China.

METHODS

We performed single genome sequencing of HIV-1 env and 5' half HCV genomes, then applied phylogenetic analysis and validated models of early virus diversification to enumerate TF viruses in 60 PWID. We used multivariate analysis to determine correlates of multivariant transmission (MVT).

RESULTS

We generated 1070 env region sequences from 33 HIV-1 early infected individuals and 773 5' half region sequences from 27 HCV early infected individuals. We found rates of MVT of 39 and 54%, respectively, for HIV-1 and HCV, with a limited range in the number of TF viruses in both infections. Behavioural characteristics suggested high-risk injection practices and lower risk sexual practices; we did not find an association between any specific behaviours and MVT.

CONCLUSION

MVT is frequent in parenteral transmission of both HIV-1 and HCV in Xinjiang PWID, indicating a less stringent transmission process than sexual transmission.

Rare HIV-1 transmitted/founder lineages identified by deep viral sequencing contribute to rapid shifts in dominant quasispecies during acute and early infection

In order to inform the rational design of HIV-1 preventive and cure interventions it is critical to understand the events occurring during acute HIV-1 infection (AHI). Using viral deep sequencing on six participants from the early capture acute infection RV217 cohort, we have studied HIV-1 evolution in plasma collected twice weekly during the first weeks following the advent of viremia. The analysis of infections established by multiple transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses revealed novel viral profiles that included: a) the low-level persistence of minor T/F variants, b) the rapid replacement of the major T/F by a minor T/F, and c) an initial expansion of the minor T/F followed by a quick collapse of the same minor T/F to low frequency. In most participants, cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) escape was first detected at the end of peak viremia downslope, proceeded at higher rates than previously measured in HIV-1 infection, and usually occurred through the exploration of multiple mutational pathways within an epitope. The rapid emergence of CTL escape variants suggests a strong and early CTL response. Minor T/F viral strains can contribute to rapid and varied profiles of HIV-1 quasispecies evolution during AHI. Overall, our results demonstrate that early, deep, and frequent sampling is needed to investigate viral/host interaction during AHI, which could help identify prerequisites for prevention and cure of HIV-1 infection.

Treatment as Prevention: Characterization of Partner Infections in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 Trial

HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 demonstrated that antiretroviral therapy (ART) prevents HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples. HIV from index-partner pairs was analyzed to determine the genetic linkage status of partner infections. Forty-six infections were classified as linked, indicating that the index was the likely source of the partner's infection. Lack of viral suppression and higher index viral load were associated with linked infection. Eight linked infections were diagnosed after the index started ART: 4 near the time of ART initiation and 4 after ART failure. Linked infections were not observed when the index participant was stably suppressed on ART.

Brief Report: HIV-1 Evolution in Breakthrough Infections in a Human Trial of Oral Pre-exposure Prophylaxis With Emtricitabine and Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

We describe HIV-1 evolutionary dynamics in the 4 participants from the TDF2-PrEP trial who became HIV-1 infected while prescribed emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF). At seroconversion, virus diversity in the 2 participants with detectable drug was only 0.05% (95% confidence intervals: 0.04 to 0.06) and 0.07% (0.06 to 0.08) compared with 2.25% (1.95 to 2.6) and 0.42% (0.36 to 0.49) in those with no detectable drug and 0.07%–0.69% in 5 placebo recipients (P > 0.5). At 10 months, diversity in adherent participants was only 0.37% (0.31 to 0.41) and 0.86% (0.82 to 0.90) compared with 0.5%–1.7% among participants who did not take FTC/TDF (P > 0.5). Although limited by the small number of infections that reduced the power to detect differences, we found that sequences from seroconverters with detectable drug were more homogeneous than those from placebo or nonadherent seroconverters.

HIV sequence diversity during the early phase of infection is associated with HIV DNA reductions during antiretroviral therapy

The association between baseline human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sequence diversity and HIV DNA decay after the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains uncharacterized during the early stages of HIV infection. Samples were obtained from a cohort of 17 patients with early HIV infection (<6 months after infection) who initiated ART, and the C2V5 region of the HIV-1 envelope (env) gene was amplified via single genome amplification (SGA) to determine the peripheral plasma HIV quasispecies. We categorized HIV quasispecies into two groups according to baseline viral sequence genetic distance, which was determined by the Poisson-Fitter tool. Total HIV DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), viral load, and T cell subsets were measured prior to and after the initiation of ART. The median SGA sequence number was 17 (range 6-28). At baseline, we identified 7 patients with homogeneous viral populations (designated the Homogeneous group) and 10 patients with heterogeneous viral populations (designated the Heterogeneous group) based on SGA sequences. Both groups exhibited similar HIV DNA decay rates during the first 6 months of ART (P > 0.99), but the Homogenous group experienced more prominent decay than the Heterogeneous group after 6 months (P = 0.037). The Heterogeneous group had higher CD4 cell counts after ART initiation; however, both groups had comparable recovery in terms of CD4/CD8 ratios and CD8 T cell activation levels. Viral population homogeneity upon the initiation of ART is associated with a decrease in HIV DNA levels during ART. J. Med. Virol. 89:982-988, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pairwise diversity and tMRCA as potential markers for HIV infection recency

Intrahost human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 diversity increases linearly over time. We assessed the extent to which mean pairwise distances and the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) inferred from intrahost HIV-1C env sequences were associated with the estimated time of HIV infection. Data from a primary HIV-1C infection study in Botswana were used for this analysis (N = 42). A total of 2540 HIV-1C env gp120 variable loop region 1 to conserved region 5 (V1C5) of the HIV-1 envelope gp120 viral sequences were generated by single genome amplification and sequencing, with an average of 61 viral sequences per participant and 11 sequences per time point per participant. Raw pairwise distances were calculated for each time point and participant using the ape package in R software. The tMRCA was estimated using phylogenetic inference implemented in Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees v1.8.2. Pairwise distances and tMRCA were significantly associated with the estimated time since HIV infection (both P < 0.001). Taking into account multiplicity of HIV infection strengthened these associations. HIV-1C env-based pairwise distances and tMRCA can be used as potential markers for HIV recency. However, the tMRCA estimates demonstrated no advantage over the pairwise distances estimates.

Transmission of Multiple HIV-1 Subtype C Transmitted/founder Viruses into the Same Recipients Was not Determined by Modest Phenotypic Differences

A severe bottleneck exists during HIV-1 mucosal transmission. However, viral properties that determine HIV-1 transmissibility are not fully elucidated. We identified multiple transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in six HIV-1-infected subjects by analyzing whole genome sequences. Comparison of biological phenotypes of different T/F viruses from the same individual allowed us to more precisely identify critical determinants for viral transmissibility since they were transmitted under similar conditions. All T/F viruses used coreceptor CCR5, while no T/F viruses used CXCR4 or GPR15. However, the efficiency for different T/F viruses from the same individual to use CCR5 was significantly variable, and the differences were even more significant for usage of coreceptors FPRL1, CCR3 and APJ. Resistance to IFN-α was also different between T/F viruses in 2 of 3 individuals. The relative fitness between T/F viruses from the same subject was highly variable (2-6%). Importantly, the levels of coreceptor usage efficiency, resistance to IFN-α and viral fitness were not associated with proportions of T/F viruses in each individual during acute infection. Our results show that the modest but significant differences in coreceptor usage efficiency, IFN-α sensitivity and viral fitness each alone may not play a critical role in HIV-1 transmission.

Understanding the complex evolution of rapidly mutating viruses with deep sequencing: Beyond the analysis of viral diversity

With the advent of affordable deep sequencing technologies, detection of low frequency variants within genetically diverse viral populations can now be achieved with unprecedented depth and efficiency. The high-resolution data provided by next generation sequencing technologies is currently recognised as the gold standard in estimation of viral diversity. In the analysis of rapidly mutating viruses, longitudinal deep sequencing datasets from viral genomes during individual infection episodes, as well as at the epidemiological level during outbreaks, now allow for more sophisticated analyses such as statistical estimates of the impact of complex mutation patterns on the evolution of the viral populations both within and between hosts. These analyses are revealing more accurate descriptions of the evolutionary dynamics that underpin the rapid adaptation of these viruses to the host response, and to drug therapies. This review assesses recent developments in methods and provide informative research examples using deep sequencing data generated from rapidly mutating viruses infecting humans, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Ebola virus and influenza virus, to understand the evolution of viral genomes and to explore the relationship between viral mutations and the host adaptive immune response. Finally, we discuss limitations in current technologies, and future directions that take advantage of publically available large deep sequencing datasets.

Diversification in the HIV-1 Envelope Hyper-variable Domains V2, V4, and V5 and Higher Probability of Transmitted/Founder Envelope Glycosylation Favor the Development of Heterologous Neutralization Breadth

A recent study of plasma neutralization breadth in HIV-1 infected individuals at nine International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) sites reported that viral load, HLA-A*03 genotype, and subtype C infection were strongly associated with the development of neutralization breadth. Here, we refine the findings of that study by analyzing the impact of the transmitted/founder (T/F) envelope (Env), early Env diversification, and autologous neutralization on the development of plasma neutralization breadth in 21 participants identified during recent infection at two of those sites: Kigali, Rwanda (n = 9) and Lusaka, Zambia (n = 12). Single-genome analysis of full-length T/F Env sequences revealed that all 21 individuals were infected with a highly homogeneous population of viral variants, which were categorized as subtype C (n = 12), A1 (n = 7), or recombinant AC (n = 2). An extensive amino acid sequence-based analysis of variable loop lengths and glycosylation patterns in the T/F Envs revealed that a lower ratio of NXS to NXT-encoded glycan motifs correlated with neutralization breadth. Further analysis comparing amino acid sequence changes, insertions/deletions, and glycan motif alterations between the T/F Env and autologous early Env variants revealed that extensive diversification focused in the V2, V4, and V5 regions of gp120, accompanied by contemporaneous viral escape, significantly favored the development of breadth. These results suggest that more efficient glycosylation of subtype A and C T/F Envs through fewer NXS-encoded glycan sites is more likely to elicit antibodies that can transition from autologous to heterologous neutralizing activity following exposure to gp120 diversification. This initiates an Env-antibody co-evolution cycle that increases neutralization breadth, and is further augmented over time by additional viral and host factors. These findings suggest that understanding how variation in the efficiency of site-specific glycosylation influences neutralizing antibody elicitation and targeting could advance the design of immunogens aimed at inducing antibodies that can transition from autologous to heterologous neutralizing activity.

Analysis of Viral Diversity in Relation to the Recency of HIV-1C Infection in Botswana

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional, biomarker methods to determine HIV infection recency present a promising and cost-effective alternative to the repeated testing of uninfected individuals. We evaluate a viral-based assay that uses a measure of pairwise distances (PwD) to identify HIV infection recency, and compare its performance with two serologic incidence assays, BED and LAg. In addition, we assess whether combination BED plus PwD or LAg plus PwD screening can improve predictive accuracy by reducing the likelihood of a false-recent result.

METHODS

The data comes from 854 time-points and 42 participants enrolled in a primary HIV-1C infection study in Botswana. Time points after treatment initiation or with evidence of multiplicity of infection were excluded from the final analysis. PwD was calculated from quasispecies generated using single genome amplification and sequencing. We evaluated the ability of PwD to correctly classify HIV infection recency within <130, <180 and <360 days post-seroconversion using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) methods. Following a secondary PwD screening, we quantified the reduction in the relative false-recency rate (rFRR) of the BED and LAg assays while maintaining a sensitivity of either 75, 80, 85 or 90%.

RESULTS

The final analytic sample consisted of 758 time-points from 40 participants. The PwD assay was more accurate in classifying infection recency for the 130 and 180-day cut-offs when compared with the recommended LAg and BED thresholds. A higher AUC statistic confirmed the superior predictive performance of the PwD assay for the three cut-offs. When used for combination screening, the PwD assay reduced the rFRR of the LAg assay by 52% and the BED assay by 57.8% while maintaining a 90% sensitivity for the 130 and 180-day cut-offs respectively.

CONCLUSION

PwD can accurately determine HIV infection recency. A secondary PwD screening reduces misclassification and increases the accuracy of serologic-based assays.

Use of Dried Blood Spots to Elucidate Full-Length Transmitted/Founder HIV-1 Genomes

Background:

Identification of HIV-1 genomes responsible for establishing clinical infection in newly infected individuals is fundamental to prevention and pathogenesis research. Processing, storage, and transportation of the clinical samples required to perform these virologic assays in resource-limited settings requires challenging venipuncture and cold chain logistics. Here, we validate the use of dried-blood spots (DBS) as a simple and convenient alternative to collecting and storing frozen plasma.

Methods:

We performed parallel nucleic acid extraction, single genome amplification (SGA), next generation sequencing (NGS), and phylogenetic analyses on plasma and DBS.

Results:

We demonstrated the capacity to extract viral RNA from DBS and perform SGA to infer the complete nucleotide sequence of the transmitted/founder (TF) HIV-1 envelope gene and full-length genome in two acutely infected individuals. Using both SGA and NGS methodologies, we showed that sequences generated from DBS and plasma display comparable phylogenetic patterns in both acute and chronic infection. SGA was successful on samples with a range of plasma viremia, including samples as low as 1,700 copies/ml and an estimated ~50 viral copies per blood spot. Further, we demonstrated reproducible efficiency in gp160 env sequencing in DBS stored at ambient temperature for up to three weeks or at -20°C for up to five months.

Conclusions:

These findings support the use of DBS as a practical and cost-effective alternative to frozen plasma for clinical trials and translational research conducted in resource-limited settings.

Using Combined Diagnostic Test Results to Hindcast Trends of Infection from Cross-Sectional Data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to 'hindcast' (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time.

Differences in the Selection Bottleneck between Modes of Sexual Transmission Influence the Genetic Composition of the HIV-1 Founder Virus

Due to the stringent population bottleneck that occurs during sexual HIV-1 transmission, systemic infection is typically established by a limited number of founder viruses. Elucidation of the precise forces influencing the selection of founder viruses may reveal key vulnerabilities that could aid in the development of a vaccine or other clinical interventions. Here, we utilize deep sequencing data and apply a genetic distance-based method to investigate whether the mode of sexual transmission shapes the nascent founder viral genome. Analysis of 74 acute and early HIV-1 infected subjects revealed that 83% of men who have sex with men (MSM) exhibit a single founder virus, levels similar to those previously observed in heterosexual (HSX) transmission. In a metadata analysis of a total of 354 subjects, including HSX, MSM and injecting drug users (IDU), we also observed no significant differences in the frequency of single founder virus infections between HSX and MSM transmissions. However, comparison of HIV-1 envelope sequences revealed that HSX founder viruses exhibited a greater number of codon sites under positive selection, as well as stronger transmission indices possibly reflective of higher fitness variants. Moreover, specific genetic “signatures” within MSM and HSX founder viruses were identified, with single polymorphisms within gp41 enriched among HSX viruses while more complex patterns, including clustered polymorphisms surrounding the CD4 binding site, were enriched in MSM viruses. While our findings do not support an influence of the mode of sexual transmission on the number of founder viruses, they do demonstrate that there are marked differences in the selection bottleneck that can significantly shape their genetic composition. This study illustrates the complex dynamics of the transmission bottleneck and reveals that distinct genetic bottleneck processes exist dependent upon the mode of HIV-1 transmission.

While the global spread of HIV-1 has been fueled by sexual transmission the genetic determinants underlying the transmission bottleneck remains poorly understood. Here we characterized founder virus population diversity from next generation sequencing data in a cohort of 74 acute and early HIV-1 infected individuals. We observe that the risk of multi-variant infection in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) is not greater than that observed for heterosexuals (HSX), contrary to reports of higher rates of multiple founder virus infections in higher-risk MSM transmissions. These findings were further supported through a metadata analysis of 354 acute and early HIV-1 subjects. We did, however, observe differences between HSM and MSM founder viruses, including a higher selection barrier in HSX transmission with founder viruses being more cohort consensus-like that may be reflective of increased replicative fitness. We also identified a number of residues within Envelope that behave in a risk-dependent manner and could be key for HIV-1 transmission. These novel insights improve our understanding of the HIV-1 transmission bottleneck and underscore the differential selective pressures that founder viruses within the two major transmission risk groups are subjected to.

Hepatitis C virus quasispecies and pseudotype analysis from acute infection to chronicity in HIV-1 co-infected individuals

HIV-1 infected patients who acquire HCV infection have higher rates of chronicity and liver disease progression than patients with HCV mono-infection. Understanding early events in this pathogenic process is important. We applied single genome sequencing of the E1 to NS3 regions and viral pseudotype neutralization assays to explore the consequences of viral quasispecies evolution from pre-seroconversion to chronicity in four co-infected individuals (mean follow up 566 days). We observed that one to three founder viruses were transmitted. Relatively low viral sequence diversity, possibly related to an impaired immune response, due to HIV infection was observed in three patients. However, the fourth patient, after an early purifying selection displayed increasing E2 sequence evolution, possibly related to being on suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Viral pseudotypes generated from HCV variants showed relative resistance to neutralization by autologous plasma but not to plasma collected from later time points, confirming ongoing virus escape from antibody neutralization.

Single-Genome Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus in Donor-Recipient Pairs Distinguishes Modes and Models of Virus Transmission and Early Diversification

Despite the recent development of highly effective anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and development of an effective vaccine. A precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) HCV genomes that lead to productive clinical infection could play a critical role in vaccine research, as it has for HIV-1. However, the replication schema of these two RNA viruses differ substantially, as do viral responses to innate and adaptive host defenses. These differences raise questions as to the certainty of T/F HCV genome inferences, particularly in cases where multiple closely related sequence lineages have been observed. To clarify these issues and distinguish between competing models of early HCV diversification, we examined seven cases of acute HCV infection in humans and chimpanzees, including three examples of virus transmission between linked donors and recipients. Using single-genome sequencing (SGS) of plasma vRNA, we found that inferred T/F sequences in recipients were identical to viral sequences in their respective donors. Early in infection, HCV genomes generally evolved according to a simple model of random evolution where the coalescent corresponded to the T/F sequence. Closely related sequence lineages could be explained by high multiplicity infection from a donor whose viral sequences had undergone a pretransmission bottleneck due to treatment, immune selection, or recent infection. These findings validate SGS, together with mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis, as a novel strategy to infer T/F HCV genome sequences.

IMPORTANCE

Despite the recent development of highly effective, interferon-sparing anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and the development of an effective vaccine, which could be facilitated by a precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) viral genomes and their progeny. We used single-genome sequencing to show that inferred HCV T/F sequences in recipients were identical to viral sequences in their respective donors and that viral genomes generally evolved early in infection according to a simple model of random sequence evolution. Altogether, the findings validate T/F genome inferences and illustrate how T/F sequence identification can illuminate studies of HCV transmission, immunopathogenesis, drug resistance development, and vaccine protection, including sieving effects on breakthrough virus strains.