A composite metric for assessing data on mortality and causes of death: the vital statistics performance index

Dietary Intake of (Poly)phenols and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in the Mexican Teachers' Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have reported that total (poly)phenol intake is associated with a reduction in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but mainly from high-income countries, where (poly)phenol intake may differ from that of low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to evaluate the association between the intake of total, all classes, and subclasses of (poly)phenols and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a Mexican cohort.

METHODS

We used data from the Mexican Teachers' Cohort, which included 95,313 adult females. After a median follow-up of 11.2 y, 1725 deaths were reported, including 674 from cancer and 282 from cardiovascular diseases. (Poly)phenol intake was estimated using a validated food frequency questionnaire and the Phenol-Explorer database. Multivariable Cox models were applied to estimate the association between (poly)phenol intake and all-cause mortality and competitive risk models for cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Comparing extreme quartiles, total (poly)phenol intake was associated with lower risk of all-cause [hazard ratio (HR)Q4vs.Q1: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.99; P-trend = 0.01] and cancer mortality (HRQ4vs.Q1: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.99; P-trend = 0.02). Among (poly)phenol classes, phenolic acids, particularly hydroxycinnamic acids from coffee, showed an inverse association with all-cause (HRQ4vs.Q1: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.91; P-trend = 0.002) and cancer mortality (HRQ4vs.Q1: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03). No associations were observed with flavonoids or with cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that high (poly)phenol intake, primarily consisting of phenolic acids such as hydroxycinnamic acids, may have a protective effect on overall and cancer mortality. Null associations for flavonoid intake might be due to the potential underestimation of their intake in this population.

Assessing the policy utility of routine mortality statistics: a global classification of countries

Objective

To evaluate the utility and quality of death registration data across countries.

Methods

We compiled routine death and cause of death statistics data from 2015-2019 from national authorities. We estimated completeness of death registration using the Adair-Lopez empirical method. The quality of cause of death data was assessed by evaluating the assignment of usable causes of death among people younger than 80 years. We grouped data into nine policy utility categories based on data availability, registration completeness and diagnostic precision.

Findings

Of an estimated 55 million global deaths in 2019, 70% of deaths were registered across 156 countries, but only 52% had medically certified causes and 42% of deaths were assigned a usable cause. In 54 countries, which are mostly high-income, there is complete and high-quality mortality data. In a further 29 countries, located across different regions, death registration is complete, but cause of death data quality remains suboptimal. Additionally, 37 countries possess functional death registration systems with cause of death data of poor to moderate quality. In 30 countries, death registration ranges from limited to nascent completeness, accompanied by poor or unavailable cause of death data. Furthermore, 38 countries lack accessible data altogether.

Conclusion

By implementing more proactive death notification processes, expanding the use of digitized data collection platforms, streamlining data compilation procedures and improving data quality assessment, governments could enhance the policy utility of mortality data. Encouraging the routine application of automated verbal autopsy methods is crucial for accurately determining the causes of deaths occurring at home.

Relative Age Within School Grade, Including Delayed and Accelerated School Start: Associations With Midlife Psychiatric Disorders, Suicide, and Alcohol- and Drug-Related Mortality

Within a school grade, children who are young for grade are at increased risk of psychiatric diagnoses, but the long-term implications remain understudied, and associations with students who delay or accelerate entry underexplored. We used Norwegian birth cohort records (birth years: 1967-1976, n = 626,928) linked to records in midlife. On-time school entry was socially patterned; among those born in December, 23.0% of children in the lowest socioeconomic position (SEP) delayed school entry, compared with 12.2% among the highest SEP. Among those who started school on time, there was no evidence for long-term associations between birth month and psychiatric/behavioral disorders or mortality. Controlling for SEP and other confounders, delayed school entry was associated with increased risk of psychiatric disorders and mortality. Children with delayed school entry were 1.31 times more likely to die by suicide (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.61) by midlife, and 1.96 times more likely to die from drug-related death (95% confidence interval: 1.59, 2.40) by midlife than those born late in the year who started school on time. Associations with delayed school entry are likely due to selection, and results thus underscore that long-term health risks can be tracked early in life, including through school entry timing, and are highly socially patterned.

Factors associated with the quality of death certification in Brazilian municipalities: A data-driven non-linear model

Studies evaluating the local quality of death certification in Brazil focused on completeness of death reporting or inappropriate coding of causes of death, with few investigating missing data. We aimed to use missing and unexpected values in core topics to assess the quality of death certification in Brazilian municipalities, to evaluate its correlation with the percentage of garbage codes, and to employ a data-driven approach with non-linear models to investigate the association of the socioeconomic and health infrastructure context with quality of death statistics among municipalities. This retrospective study used data from the Mortality Information System (2010-2017), and municipal data regarding healthcare infrastructure, socioeconomic characteristics, and death rates. Quality of death certification was assessed by missing or unexpected values in the following core topics: dates of occurrence, registration, and birth, place of occurrence, certifier, sex, and marital status. Models were fit to classify municipalities according to the quality of death certification (poor quality defined as death records with missing or unexpected values in core topics ≥ 80%). Municipalities with poor quality of death certification (43.9%) presented larger populations, lower death rates, lower socioeconomic index, healthcare infrastructure with fewer beds and physicians, and higher proportion of public healthcare facilities. The correlation coefficients between quality of death certification assessed by missing or unexpected values and the proportion of garbage codes were weak (0.11-0.49), but stronger for municipalities with lower socioeconomic scores. The model that best fitted the data was the random forest classifier (ROC AUC = 0.76; precision-recall AUC = 0.78). This innovative way of assessing the quality of death certification could help quality improvement initiatives to include the correctness of essential fields, in addition to garbage coding or completeness of records, especially in municipalities with lower socioeconomic status where garbage coding and the correctness of core topics appear to be related issues.

Examining Final-Administered Medication as a Measure of Data Quality: A Comparative Analysis of Death Data with the Central Cancer Registry in Republic of Korea

Death is a crucial outcome in retrospective cohort studies, serving as a criterion for analyzing mortality in a database. This study aimed to assess the quality of extracted death data and investigate the potential of the final-administered medication as a variable to quantify accuracy for the validation dataset. Electronic health records from both an in-hospital and the Korean Central Cancer Registry were used for this study. The gold standard was established by examining the differences between the dates of in-hospital deaths and cancer-registered deaths. Cosine similarity was employed to quantify the final-administered medication similarities between the gold standard and other cohorts. The gold standard was determined as patients who died in the hospital after 2006 and whose final hospital visit/discharge date and death date differed by 0 or 1 day. For all three criteria-(a) cancer stage, (b) cancer type, and (c) type of final visit-there was a positive correlation between mortality rates and the similarities of the final-administered medication. This study introduces a measure that can provide additional accurate information regarding death and differentiates the reliability of the dataset.

Description of the National Mortality Register of Panama

Introduction

The National Mortality Register (NMR) of Panama is a key element in demographic analysis and in acquiring an updated picture of population health in Panama. The main objectives of this study are to characterize the NMR and to enumerate its strengths and weaknesses.

Methods

We describe the history, processes, and structure of the Vital Statistics Section of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (the curator of the NMR database). In addition, we discuss publication punctuality, underregistration of the data, the proportion of registered deaths certified by medical doctors, and the top 5 causes of death according to the 80 groups of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision. We also examine works derived from the register's data, from the first publication on its website (2002) until 2019.

Results

The NMR procedures were described. The web reports of the NMR were performed with a delay of between 1 to 2 years. The underregistration of deaths in 2002-2019 was 14.7%, and the national yearly proportion of deaths certified by medical doctors was always above 90%. Hard-to-reach areas had higher underregistration proportions and fewer deaths certified by medical doctors. Information extracted from the NMR supports several national and international reports, geographic information systems, and studies. The most common causes of death between 2002 and 2019 were noncommunicable diseases.

Conclusions

The NMR is a robust official information system. However, hard-to-reach areas require improvement in terms of the NMR. The NMR is used for publishing official reports, writing studies, and updating reports on the current health status of Panama in a timely fashion following international guidelines.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Hungary: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

From 2010 to 2019, suicide mortality fell steadily and substantially in Hungary: the declining trend remained stable, and the suicide rate decreased by more than one-third which was remarkable even from an international perspective. However, despite the declining trend, regional inequalities have always characterised the distribution of suicide mortality in Hungary. Following these favourable trends, COVID-19 appeared in Hungary on the 4^th of March 2020 which might lead to an increase in suicides. We aimed to investigate this hypothesis in Hungary by gender, age, educational attainment, and region, as well.

METHODS

To test whether the pandemic changed the declining trend of Hungarian suicide rates, the observed number of suicides during March-December 2020 (pre-vaccination period) was compared with the expected numbers (without the appearance of COVID-19). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted by negative binomial regression using monthly data from January 2010 to February 2020 (pre-pandemic period).

RESULTS

Suicide mortality increased significantly compared to the trend during the pre-pandemic period: overall (by 16.7%), among males (18.5%), in the age group 35-49 years (32.8%), and among vocational school graduates (26.1%). Additionally, significant growths in suicide rates were detected in the two regions (Central Hungary and Central Transdanubia) with the lowest COVID mortality rates (by 27.3% and 22.2%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed reversed trend in suicide mortality during the pre-vaccination period compared to the pre-pandemic period in Hungary. There were significant differences in the pattern of suicide rates by gender, age group, educational attainment, and region during the pre-vaccination period in Hungary, which might be attributed to the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings could prove useful in preventive strategies as the identification of groups at higher risk may be important for suicide prevention; however, further investigations are needed to explore the reasons.

Reduction of infant mortality from congenital heart defects in a middle-income country: Costa Rican experience

BACKGROUND

We aimed to analyze recent infant and neonatal mortality from congenital heart defects (CHD) in Costa Rica, a middle-income country where CHD mortality was above expectations.

METHODS

A descriptive analysis of infant and neonatal mortality rates from CHD (IMR-CHD and NMR-CHD) during 2000-2019 was performed, according to province, sex, specific CHD, and sub-period, using data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. We used joinpoint regression to identify any calendar-year where a significant change in trend occurred; the average annual percent change (AAPC) was determined. Using Poisson regression, marginal means and mortality ratios (MR) for IMR-CHD and NMR-CHD by sub-period (2000-2006-referent-, 2007-2013, 2014-2019) were estimated and compared using Wald's chi-square tests (α ≤ .05).

RESULTS

During 2000-2019, CHD accounted for 12% of overall infant mortality. IMR-CHD and NMR-CHD decreased linearly over the study period (AAPC = -3.4; p < .01). IMR-CHD decreased by 41%, from 13.6 per 10,000 in 2000-2006 (13.4% of infant mortality) to 8.1 per 10,000 in 2014-2019 (10% of infant mortality) (MR = 0.59; 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.52-0.68). NMR-CHD decreased by 38%, from 7.9 per 10,000 in 2000-2006 (11.1% of neonatal mortality) to 4.9 per 10,000 in 2014-2019 (7.9% of infant mortality) (MR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.52-0.68). Male presented significantly higher NMR-CHD. The main causes of mortality (2014-2019) were total anomalous pulmonary venous connections, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, and double inlet ventricle.

CONCLUSIONS

IMR-CHD, NMR-CHD, and their proportional contribution to mortality by all causes and by birth defects decreased significantly, demonstrating that all improvements implemented in the last decades have yielded favorable results.

The contribution of alcohol-related deaths to the life-expectancy gap between people with and without depression - a cross-country comparison

BACKGROUND

Alcohol-related deaths may be among the most important reasons for the shorter life expectancy of people with depression, yet no study has quantified their contribution. We quantify the contribution of alcohol-related deaths to the life-expectancy gap in depression in four European countries with differing levels of alcohol-related mortality.

METHODS

We used cohort data linking population registers with health-care and death records from Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Turin, Italy, in 1993-2007 (210,412,097 person years, 3046,754 deaths). We identified psychiatric inpatients with depression from hospital discharge registers in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden and outpatients with antidepressant prescriptions from prescription registers in Finland and Turin. We assessed alcohol-related and non-alcohol-related deaths using both underlying and contributory causes of death, stratified by sex, age and depression status. We quantified the contribution of alcohol-related deaths by cause-of-death decomposition of the life-expectancy gap at age 25 between people with and without depression.

RESULTS

The gap in life expectancy was 13.1-18.6 years between people with and without inpatient treatment for depression and 6.7-9.1 years between those with and without antidepressant treatment. The contribution of alcohol-related deaths to the life-expectancy gap was larger in Denmark (33.6%) and Finland (18.1-30.5%) - i.e., countries with high overall alcohol-related mortality - than in Sweden (11.9%) and Turin (3.2%), and larger among men in all countries. The life-expectancy gap due to other than alcohol-related deaths varied little across countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol contributes heavily to the lower life expectancy in depression particularly among men and in countries with high overall alcohol-related mortality.

Garbage codes in the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry 1996-2019

Background

Reliable statistics on the underlying cause of death are essential for monitoring the health in a population. When there is insufficient information to identify the true underlying cause of death, the death will be classified using less informative codes, garbage codes. If many deaths are assigned a garbage code, the information value of the cause-of-death statistics is reduced. The aim of this study was to analyse the use of garbage codes in the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry (NCoDR).

Methods

Data from NCoDR on all deaths among Norwegian residents in the years 1996–2019 were used to describe the occurrence of garbage codes. We used logistic regression analyses to identify determinants for the use of garbage codes. Possible explanatory factors were year of death, sex, age of death, place of death and whether an autopsy was performed.

Results

A total of 29.0% (290,469/1,000,128) of the deaths were coded with a garbage code; 14.1% (140,804/1,000,128) with a major and 15.0% (149,665/1,000,128) with a minor garbage code. The five most common major garbage codes overall were ICD-10 codes I50 (heart failure), R96 (sudden death), R54 (senility), X59 (exposure to unspecified factor), and A41 (other sepsis). The most prevalent minor garbage codes were I64 (unspecified stroke), J18 (unspecified pneumonia), C80 (malignant neoplasm with unknown primary site), E14 (unspecified diabetes mellitus), and I69 (sequelae of cerebrovascular disease).

The most important determinants for the use of garbage codes were the age of the deceased (OR 17.4 for age ≥ 90 vs age < 1) and death outside hospital (OR 2.08 for unknown place of death vs hospital).

Conclusion

Over a 24-year period, garbage codes were used in 29.0% of all deaths. The most important determinants of a death to be assigned a garbage code were advanced age and place of death outside hospital. Knowledge of the national epidemiological situation, as well as the rules and guidelines for mortality coding, is essential for understanding the prevalence and distribution of garbage codes, in order to rely on vital statistics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13693-w.

Mortality and Morbidity in Mild Primary Hyperparathyroidism: Results From a 10-Year Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial of Parathyroidectomy Versus Observation

BACKGROUND

Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is a common endocrine disorder associated with increased risk for fractures, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and cancer and increased mortality. In mild PHPT with modest hypercalcemia and without known morbidities, parathyroidectomy (PTX) is debated because no long-term randomized trials have been performed.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of PTX on mild PHPT with regard to mortality (primary end point) and key morbidities (secondary end point).

DESIGN

Prospective randomized controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00522028).

SETTING

Eight Scandinavian referral centers.

PATIENTS

From 1998 to 2005, 191 patients with mild PHPT were included.

INTERVENTION

Ninety-five patients were randomly assigned to PTX, and 96 were assigned to observation without intervention (OBS).

MEASUREMENTS

Date and causes of death were obtained from the Swedish and Norwegian Cause of Death Registries 10 years after randomization and after an extended observation period lasting until 2018. Morbidity events were prospectively registered annually.

RESULTS

After 10 years, 15 patients had died (8 in the PTX group and 7 in the OBS group). Within the extended observation period, 44 deaths occurred, which were evenly distributed between groups (24 in the PTX group and 20 in the OBS group). A total of 101 morbidity events (cardiovascular events, cerebrovascular events, cancer, peripheral fractures, and renal stones) were also similarly distributed between groups (52 in the PTX group and 49 in the OBS group). During the study, a total of 16 vertebral fractures occurred in 14 patients (7 in each group).

LIMITATION

During the study period, 23 patients in the PTX group and 27 in the OBS group withdrew.

CONCLUSION

Parathyroidectomy does not appear to reduce morbidity or mortality in mild PHPT. Thus, no evidence of adverse effects of observation was seen for at least a decade with respect to mortality, fractures, cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, or renal morbidities.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Swedish government, Norwegian Research Council, and South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority.

Assessment of the quality of the vital registration system for under-5 mortality in Yucatan, Mexico

Introduction

Vital registration is an important element in health information systems which can inform policy and strengthen health systems. Mexico has a well-functioning vital registration system; however, there is still room for improvement, especially for deaths of children under 5. This study assesses the quality of the vital registration system in capturing deaths and evaluates the quality of cause of death certification in under-5 deaths in Yucatan, Mexico.

Methods

We collected information on under-5 deaths that occurred in 2015 and 2016 in Yucatan, Mexico. We calculated the Vital Statistics Performance Index (VSPI) to have a general assessment of the vital registration performance. We examined the agreement between vital registration records and medical records at the individual and population levels using the chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy as quality metrics.

Results

We identified 966 records from the vital registry for all under-5 deaths, and 390 were linked to medical records of deaths occurring at public hospitals. The Yucatan vital registration system captured 94.8% of the expected under-5 deaths, with an overall VSPI score of 87.2%. Concordance between underlying cause of death listed in the vital registry and the cause determined by the medical record review varied substantially across causes, with a mean overall chance-corrected concordance across causes of 6.9% for neonates and 46.9% for children. Children had the highest concordance for digestive diseases, and neonates had the highest concordance for meningitis/sepsis. At the population level, the CSMF accuracy for identifying the underlying cause listed was 35.3% for neonates and 67.7% for children.

Conclusions

Although the vital registration system has overall good performance, there are still problems in information about causes of death for children under 5 that are related mostly to certification of the causes of death. The accuracy of information can vary substantially across age groups and causes, with causes reported for neonates being generally less reliable than those for older children. Results highlight the need to implement strategies to improve the certification of causes of death in this population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-022-00284-5.

Leading causes of death and high mortality rates in an HIV endemic setting (Kisumu county, Kenya, 2019)

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited settings, underlying causes of death (UCOD) often are not ascertained systematically, leading to unreliable mortality statistics. We reviewed medical charts to establish UCOD for decedents at two high volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, and compared ascertained UCOD to those notified to the civil registry.

METHODS

Medical experts trained in COD certification examined medical charts and ascertained causes of death for 456 decedents admitted to the mortuaries from April 16 through July 12, 2019. Decedents with unknown HIV status or who had tested HIV-negative >90 days before the date of death were tested for HIV. We calculated annualized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates grouped according to global burden of disease (GBD) categories and separately for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and expressed estimated deaths per 100,000 population. We compared notified to ascertained UCOD using Cohen's Kappa (κ) and assessed for the independence of proportions using Pearson's chi-squared test.

FINDINGS

The four leading UCOD were HIV/AIDS (102/442 [23.1%]), hypertensive disease (41/442 [9.3%]), other cardiovascular diseases (23/442 [5.2%]), and cancer (20/442 [4.5%]). The all-cause mortality rate was 1,086/100,000 population. The highest cause-specific mortality was in GBD category II (noncommunicable diseases; 516/100,000), followed by GBD I (communicable, perinatal, maternal, and nutritional; 513/100,000), and III (injuries; 56/100,000). The HIV/AIDS mortality rate was 251/100,000 population. The proportion of deaths due to GBD II causes was higher among females (51.9%) than male decedents (42.1%; p = 0.039). Conversely, more men/boys (8.6%) than women/girls (2.1%) died of GBD III causes (p = 0.002). Most of the records with available recorded and ascertained UCOD (n = 236), 167 (70.8%) had incorrectly recorded UCOD, and agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD was poor (29.2%; κ = 0.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality from infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS, is high in Kisumu County, but there is a shift toward higher mortality from noncommunicable diseases, possibly reflecting an epidemiologic transition and improving HIV outcomes. The epidemiologic transition suggests the need for increased focus on controlling noncommunicable conditions despite the high communicable disease burden. The weak agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD could lead to substantial inaccuracies in mortality statistics, which wholly depend on death notifications.

Feasibility of using death certificates for studying place of death in Latin America

Objective

This paper assesses the availability and quality of death certificate data in Latin America and the feasibility of using these data to study place of death and associated factors.

Methods

In this comparative study, we collected examples of current official death certificates and digital data files containing information about all deaths that occurred during 1 year in 19 Latin American countries. Data were collected from June 2019 to May 2020. The records for place of death and associated variables were studied. The criteria for data quality were completeness, number of ill-defined causes of death and timeliness.

Results

All 19 countries provided copies of current official death certificates and 18 of these registered the place of death. Distinguishing among hospital or other health care institution, home and other was possible for all countries. Digital data files with death certificate data were available from 12 countries and 1 region. Three countries had data considered to be of high quality and seven had data considered to be of medium quality. Categories for place of death and most of the predetermined factors possibly associated with place of death were included in the data files.

Conclusions

The quality of data sets was rated medium to high in 10 countries. Hence, death certificate data make it feasible to conduct an international comparative study on place of death and the associated factors in Latin America.

Redistributing deaths by ill-defined and unspecified causes on cancer mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

to discuss the impact four different redistribution strategies have on the quantitative and temporal trends of cancer mortality assessment in Brazil.

METHODOLOGY

This study used anonymized and georeferenced data provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health (BMoH). Four different approaches were used to conduct the redistribution of ill-defined deaths and garbage codes. Age-standardized mortality rates used the world population as reference. Prais-Winsten autoregression allowed the calculation of region, sex, and cancer type trends.

RESULTS

Death rates increased considerably in all regions after redistribution. Overall, Elisabeth B. França’s and the World Health Organization methods had a milder impact on trends and rate magnitudes when compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 method. This study also observed that, when the BMoH dealt with the problem of redistributing ill-defined deaths, results were similar to those obtained by the GBD method. The redistribution methods also influenced the assessment of trends; however, differences were less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

Since developing a comparative gold standard is impossible, matching global techniques to local realities may be an alternative for methodological selection. In our study, the compatibility of the findings suggests how valid the GBD method is to the Brazilian context. However, caution is needed. Future studies should assess the impact of these methods as applied to the redistribution of deaths to type-specific neoplasms.

Lockdown and non-COVID-19 deaths: cause-specific mortality during the first wave of the 2020 pandemic in Norway: a population-based register study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the potential impact of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on all cause and cause-specific mortality in Norway.

DESIGN

Population-based register study.

SETTING

The Norwegian cause of Death Registry and the National Population Register of Norway.

PARTICIPANTS

All recorded deaths in Norway from March to May from 2010 to 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rate (per 100 000) of all-cause mortality and causes of death in the European Shortlist for Causes of Death from March to May 2020. The rates were age standardised and adjusted to a 100% register coverage and compared with a 95% prediction interval (PI) from linear regression based on corresponding rates for 2010-2019.

RESULTS

113 710 deaths were included, of which 10 226 were from 2020. We did not observe any deviation from predicted total mortality. There were fewer than predicted deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases excluding asthma (11.4, 95% PI 11.8 to 15.2) and from other non-ischaemic, non-rheumatic heart diseases (13.9, 95% PI 14.5 to 20.2). The death rates were higher than predicted for Alzheimer's disease (7.3, 95% PI 5.5 to 7.3) and diabetes mellitus (4.1, 95% PI 2.1 to 3.4).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in the frequency of the major causes of death in the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in Norway compared with corresponding periods 2010-2019. There was an increase in diabetes mellitus and Alzheimer's deaths. Reduced mortality due to some heart and lung conditions may be linked to infection control measures.

Patterns of suicide deaths in Hungary between 1995 and 2017

Hungary has had one of the highest suicide mortality rates in the world for decades. Investigating seasonality of suicide deaths is essential as its findings could be key elements in the prevention. In our study we have analyzed the seasonal effect in suicide mortality in relation to possible risk factors in Hungary during 1995–2017.

Data on the numbers of suicide deaths were obtained from a published online database. Negative binomial regression was employed to investigate the effect of possible risk factors and seasonal and annual trends in suicide rates. The seasonal effect was further investigated, adding a significant risk factor from the “initial” negative binomial regression.

The suicide risk was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in men than in women (incidence rate ratio: 3.48), and it increased with age and decreased with education level. Marriage was a protective factor against suicide. Annual suicide mortality declined significantly (p < 0.001 for trend) from 36.7 (95% confidence interval: 35.5–37.9) to 16.5 (15.7–17.3) per 100,000 persons per year during the study period. Significant seasonality was found in suicide rates with a peak in late June. Similar peaks were observed at each level of each risk factor. There were differences in peaks by suicide method. The peak of non-violent suicides was in early June; suicides committed by violent methods peaked half a month later.

This study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on suicide deaths between 1995 and 2017, which remained significant even in the presence of each risk factor. To our knowledge, this has been the first study to investigate the seasonal pattern so extensively in Hungary. Our findings confirm that the environmental effects are involved in the etiology of suicide mortality.

•

Significant seasonality was found in suicide rates with a peak in late June.

•

Seasonal effect remained almost unchanged after adjusting sociodemographic factors.

•

There were differences in seasonal peaks by suicide method.

•

Environmental effects are involved in the etiology of suicide mortality.

Are there sex differences in completeness of death registration and quality of cause of death statistics? Results from a global analysis

INTRODUCTION

Recent studies suggest that more male than female deaths are registered and a higher proportion of female deaths are certified as 'garbage' causes (ie, vague or ill-defined causes of limited policy value). This can reduce the utility of sex-specific mortality statistics for governments to address health problems. To assess whether there are sex differences in completeness and quality of data from civil registration and vital statistics systems, we analysed available global death registration and cause of death data.

METHODS

Completeness of death registration for females and males was compared in 112 countries, and in subsets of countries with incomplete death registration. For 64 countries with medical certificate of cause of death data, the level, severity and type of garbage causes was compared between females and males, standardised for the older age distribution and different cause composition of female compared with male deaths.

RESULTS

For 42 countries with completeness of less than 95% (both sexes), average female completeness was 1.2 percentage points (p.p.) lower (95% uncertainty interval (UI) -2.5 to -0.2 p.p.) than for males. Aggregate female completeness for these countries was 7.1 p.p. lower (95% UI -12.2 to -2.0 p.p.; female 72.9%, male 80.1%), due to much higher male completeness in nine countries including India. Garbage causes were higher for females than males in 58 of 64 countries (statistically significant in 48 countries), but only by an average 1.4 p.p. (1.3-1.6 p.p.); results were consistent by severity and type of garbage.

CONCLUSION

Although in most countries analysed there was no clear bias against females in death registration, there was clear evidence in a few countries of systematic undercounting of female deaths which substantially reduces the utility of mortality data. In countries with cause of death data, it was only of marginally poorer quality for females than males.

Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980-2019: a network meta-regression

BACKGROUND

The burden of fatal police violence is an urgent public health crisis in the USA. Mounting evidence shows that deaths at the hands of the police disproportionately impact people of certain races and ethnicities, pointing to systemic racism in policing. Recent high-profile killings by police in the USA have prompted calls for more extensive and public data reporting on police violence. This study examines the presence and extent of under-reporting of police violence in US Government-run vital registration data, offers a method for correcting under-reporting in these datasets, and presents revised estimates of deaths due to police violence in the USA.

METHODS

We compared data from the USA National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to three non-governmental, open-source databases on police violence: Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and The Counted. We extracted and standardised the age, sex, US state of death registration, year of death, and race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic of other races, and Hispanic of any race) of each decedent for all data sources and used a network meta-regression to quantify the rate of under-reporting within the NVSS. Using these rates to inform correction factors, we provide adjusted estimates of deaths due to police violence for all states, ages, sexes, and racial and ethnic groups from 1980 to 2019 across the USA.

FINDINGS

Across all races and states in the USA, we estimate 30 800 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 30 300-31 300) from police violence between 1980 and 2018; this represents 17 100 more deaths (16 600-17 600) than reported by the NVSS. Over this time period, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was highest in non-Hispanic Black people (0·69 [95% UI 0·67-0·71] per 100 000), followed by Hispanic people of any race (0·35 [0·34-0·36]), non-Hispanic White people (0·20 [0·19-0·20]), and non-Hispanic people of other races (0·15 [0·14- 0·16]). This variation is further affected by the decedent's sex and shows large discrepancies between states. Between 1980 and 2018, the NVSS did not report 55·5% (54·8-56·2) of all deaths attributable to police violence. When aggregating all races, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was 0·25 (0·24-0·26) per 100 000 in the 1980s and 0·34 (0·34-0·35) per 100 000 in the 2010s, an increase of 38·4% (32·4-45·1) over the period of study.

INTERPRETATION

We found that more than half of all deaths due to police violence that we estimated in the USA from 1980 to 2018 were unreported in the NVSS. Compounding this, we found substantial differences in the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence over time and by racial and ethnic groups within the USA. Proven public health intervention strategies are needed to address these systematic biases. State-level estimates allow for appropriate targeting of these strategies to address police violence and improve its reporting.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Attributable Risk Factors, 1990-2017: A Secondary Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Objective

To estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) stratified by gender, age, geographic location, and social-demographic status for 21 regions across the world from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) Results Tool, we extracted data on the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates related to IHD, as IHD burden measures. Trend analyzes were conducted for major regions. Risk factors for DALYs (obtained from the GBD comparative risk assessment framework) were also analyzed.

Results

Globally, 10.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 9.6–11.8) cases of IHD occurred in 2017, with 8.9 million (95%UI:8.8–9.1) IHD-related deaths. Both the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) declined from 1990 to 2017 (percentage change: 27.4% and 30.0%, respectively), with average annual percent change (AAPC) values of −1.2% and −1.3%, respectively. In 2017, the global number of IHD-related DALYs was 170.3 million (95%UI:167.1–174.0), and the middle socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile contributed the most to these DALYs. In most regions, indicators (incidence, mortality, and DALYs) declined steadily with SDI increased. High systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the most significant contributor to the DALYs in most regions, accounting for 118.18 million DALYs in 2017 globally, followed by high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a diet low in nuts and seeds (101.78 and 52.86 million, respectively).

Conclusion

Even though the trend in IHD morbidity and mortality decreased globally, the IHD burden remains high, particularly in regions with lower SDI. It is necessary to learn successful and effective experience in controlling IHD risks and decreasing health disparities to reduce the IHD burden.

Development and Evaluation of a Community Surveillance Method for Estimating Deaths Due to Injuries in Rural Nepal

Almost 10% of global deaths are secondary to injuries, yet in the absence of routine injury surveillance and with few studies of injury mortality, the number and cause of injury deaths in many countries are not well understood. This study aimed to develop and evaluate the feasibility of a method to identify injury deaths in rural Nepal. Working with local government authorities, health post staff and female community health volunteers (FCHVs), we developed a two-stage community fatal injury surveillance approach. In stage one, all deaths from any cause were identified. In stage two, an interview with a relative or friend gathered information about the deceased and the injury event. The feasibility of the method was evaluated prospectively between February 2019 and January 2020 in two rural communities in Makwanpur district. The data collection tools were developed and evaluated with 108 FCHVs, 23 health post staff and two data collectors. Of 457 deaths notified over one year, 67 (14.7%) fatal injury events were identified, and interviews completed. Our method suggests that it is feasible to collect data on trauma-related deaths from rural areas in Nepal. These data may allow the development of injury prevention interventions and policy.

Declines in Pneumonia Mortality Following the Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Latin American and Caribbean Countries

Background

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age.

Methods

We obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death.

Results

The estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2–59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%–35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%–41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%–18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0–34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%–47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2–59 months since introduction.

Conclusions

Although the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.

Validity of an algorithm to identify cardiovascular deaths from administrative health records: a multi-database population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular death is a common outcome in population-based studies about new healthcare interventions or treatments, such as new prescription medications. Vital statistics registration systems are often the preferred source of information about cause-specific mortality because they capture verified information about the deceased, but they may not always be accessible for linkage with other sources of population-based data. We assessed the validity of an algorithm applied to administrative health records for identifying cardiovascular deaths in population-based data.

METHODS

Administrative health records were from an existing multi-database cohort study about sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, a new class of antidiabetic medications. Data were from 2013 to 2018 for five Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec) and the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). The cardiovascular mortality algorithm was based on in-hospital cardiovascular deaths identified from diagnosis codes and select out-of-hospital deaths. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for the cardiovascular mortality algorithm using vital statistics registrations as the reference standard. Overall and stratified estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed; the latter were produced by site, location of death, sex, and age.

RESULTS

The cohort included 20,607 individuals (58.3% male; 77.2% ≥70 years). When compared to vital statistics registrations, the cardiovascular mortality algorithm had overall sensitivity of 64.8% (95% CI 63.6, 66.0); site-specific estimates ranged from 54.8 to 87.3%. Overall specificity was 74.9% (95% CI 74.1, 75.6) and overall PPV was 54.5% (95% CI 53.7, 55.3), while site-specific PPV ranged from 33.9 to 72.8%. The cardiovascular mortality algorithm had sensitivity of 57.1% (95% CI 55.4, 58.8) for in-hospital deaths and 72.3% (95% CI 70.8, 73.9) for out-of-hospital deaths; specificity was 88.8% (95% CI 88.1, 89.5) for in-hospital deaths and 58.5% (95% CI 57.3, 59.7) for out-of-hospital deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

A cardiovascular mortality algorithm applied to administrative health records had moderate validity when compared to vital statistics data. Substantial variation existed across study sites representing different geographic locations and two healthcare systems. These variations may reflect different diagnostic coding practices and healthcare utilization patterns.

Menarche characteristics in association with total and cause-specific mortality: a prospective cohort study of Mexican teachers

PURPOSE

We evaluated the relation between age at menarche and time to menstrual regularity with all-cause and cause specific mortality in a cohort of Mexican women.

METHODS

We followed 113,540 women from the Mexican Teachers' Cohort. After a mean follow-up time of 9.2 years, 1,355 deaths were identified. We estimated hazard ratios from Cox regression models for total mortality and a competitive risk models for cause-specific mortality adjusting for year of birth and childhood factors.

RESULTS

Women with extreme age of menarche were at increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]: <11 years 1.50 [1.20, 1.87]; 14 years 1.19 [0.97, 1.43]) relative to those with menarche at 13 years. Extreme ages at menarche had higher risk of mortality for diabetes (HR: <11 years 1.66 [0.90, 3.05]; 14 years 1.47 [0.90, 2.40]), breast cancer (HR: <11 years 1.34 [0.56, 3.20]), and other cancer (HR:<11 years 1.65 [1.10, 2.48]) compared to menarche at 13 years. Women who took three or more years to achieve menstrual regularity had a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those who took less (HR: 1.27 [1.01, 1.58]).

CONCLUSIONS

Extreme ages at menarche and longer time to reach menstrual regularity were associated with an increased rate of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

BACKGROUND

Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.

METHODS

We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.

RESULTS

The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Smoking-attributable mortality in South America: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Dating from the 1920s and linked to the increase in mortality among smokers, tobacco has become one of the most studied health risk factors. Tobacco-use series, whether for the general population or for specific groups, are unavailable for most South American countries, something that hinders the characterisation of this risk factor.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and analyse studies that estimate smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) in South America and provide an overview of the impact of smoking habit on mortality in the region.

METHODS

Systematic review using PubMed, Embase, LILACS, Biblioteca Virtual en Salud, Google Scholar and Google, and including all papers published until June 2020 reporting studies in which SAM was estimated.

RESULTS

The search yielded 140 papers, 17 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were SAM estimates for all South American countries, with Argentina having the most. The first estimate covered 1981 and the latest, 2013. The method most used was prevalence-based. Regardless of the country and point in time covered by the estimate, the highest figures were recorded for men in all cases. The burden of attributable vs observed mortality varied among countries, reaching a figure of 20.3% in Argentina in 1986. The highest SAM burden was registered for the group of cardiovascular diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

SAM estimates are available for all South American countries but the respective study periods differ and the frequency of the estimates is unclear. For 4 countries, the only estimates available are drawn from reports, something that does not allow for a detailed assessment of the estimates obtained. To help with decision-making targeted at evaluating and enhancing the impact of smoking control policies, further studies are needed in order to update the impact of smoking on all countries across South America.

Avoidable deaths in Sweden, 1997-2018: temporal trend and the contribution to the gender gap in life expectancy

Background

Avoidable mortality is considered as a potential indicator of the influences of public health policies and healthcare quality on population health. This study aimed to examine the trend in avoidable mortality and its influence on rising life expectancy (LE) and declining gender gap in LE (GGLE) in Sweden.

Methods

We extracted data on causes of death by age, sex, and year from national registry from 1997 to 2018. The UK Office for National Statistics definition was used to divide causes of death into five mutually exclusive categories: amenable, preventable, amenable & preventable, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and non-avoidable causes. We applied Joinpoint regression to analyse temporal trends in age-standardized mortality rates. The Arriaga method was applied to decompose changes in LE and GGLE by age group and causes of death.

Results

Average annual reductions in avoidable vs. non-avoidable mortality were 2.6% (95% CI:2.5, 2.7) vs. 1.4% (95% CI:1.3, 1.5) in men, and 1.6% (95% CI:1.4, 1.9) vs. 0.9% (95% CI:0.7, 1.0) in women over the study period. LE in men rose by 4.1 years between 1997 and 2018 (from 72.8 to 76.9 years), of which 2.4 years (59.3%) were attributable to reductions in avoidable mortality. Corresponding LE gain was 2.3 years in women (from 78.0 in 1997 to 80.3 in 2018) and avoidable mortality accounted for 1.0 year (45.6%) of this gain. Between 1997 and 2018, the GGLE narrowed by 1.9 years, of which 1.4 years (77.7%) were attributable to avoidable causes. Among avoidable causes, while preventable causes had the largest contribution to the GGLE, IHD had the greatest contributions to LE gains and the narrowing GGLE.

Conclusions

Our findings showed that avoidable causes had a substantial contribution to gain in LE with more profound gain in men than in women, resulting in narrowing the GGLE. Lower pace of reductions in preventable than amenable mortality highlights the need for improving the effectiveness of inter-sectoral health policies aimed at behavioural changes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10567-5.

Death registration in Nigeria: a systematic literature review of its performance and challenges

Background

Death registration provides an opportunity for the legal documentation of death of persons. Documentation of deaths has several implications including its use in the recovery of inheritance and insurance benefits. It is also an important input for construction of life tables which are crucial for national planning. However, the registration of deaths is poor in several countries including Nigeria.

Objective

This paper describes the performance of death registration in Nigeria and factors that may affect its performance.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of death registration completeness in Nigeria to identify, characterize issues as well as challenges associated with realizing completeness in death registration.

Results

Only 13.5% of deaths in Nigeria were registered in 2007 which regressed to 10% in 2017. There was no data reported for Nigeria in the World Health Organization database between 2008 and 2017. The country scored less than 0.1 (out of a maximum of 1) on the Vital Statistics Performance Index. There are multiple institutions with parallel constitutional and legal responsibilities for death registration in Nigeria including the National Population Commission, National Identity Management Commission and Local Government Authorities, which may be contributing to its overall poor performance.

Conclusions

We offer proposals to substantially improve death registration completeness in Nigeria including the streamlining and merger of the National Population Commission and the National Identity Management Commission into one commission, the revision of the legal mandate of the new agency to mainly coordination and establishment of standards. We recommend that Local Government authorities maintain the local registries given their proximity to households. This arrangement will be enhanced by increased utilization of information and communications technology in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics processes that ensure records are properly archived.

Factors associated with under-reporting of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in cause-of-death records: A comparative study of two national databases in France from 2008 to 2012

OBJECTIVE

To date, no study has evaluated the detection rate of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in cause-of-death records in Europe. Our objectives were to compare the number of deaths attributable to HNSCC from two national databases in France and to identify factors associated with under-reporting of HNSCC in cause-of-death records.

METHODS

The national hospital discharge database and the national underlying cause-of-death records were compared for all HNSCC-attributable deaths in adult patients from 2008 to 2012 in France. Factors associated with under-reporting of HNSCC in cause-of-death records were assessed using multivariate Poisson regression.

RESULTS

A total of 41,503 in-hospital deaths were attributable to HNSCC as compared to 25,647 deaths reported in national UCoD records (a detection rate of 62%). Demographics at death were similar in both databases with respect to gender (83% men), age (54% premature deaths at 25-64 years), and geographic distribution. In multivariate Poisson regression, under-reporting of HNSCC in cause-of-death records significantly increased in 2012 compared to 2010 (+7%) and was independently associated with a primary HNSCC site other than the larynx, a former primary or second synchronous cancer other than HNSCC, distant metastasis, palliative care, and death in hospitals other than comprehensive cancer care centers. The main study results were robust in a sensitivity analysis which also took into account deaths outside hospital (overall, 51,129 HNSCC-attributable deaths; a detection rate of 50%). For the year 2012, the age-standardized mortality rate for HNSCC derived from underlying cause-of-death records was less than half that derived from hospital discharge summaries (14.7 compared to 34.1 per 100,000 for men and 2.7 compared to 6.2 per 100,000 for women).

CONCLUSION

HNSCC is largely under-reported in cause-of-death records. This study documents the value of national hospital discharge databases as a complement to death certificates for ascertaining cancer deaths.

Trends in Suicide Mortality in Canada by Sex and Age Group, 1981 to 2017: A Population-Based Time Series Analysis: Tendances de la mortalité par suicide au Canada selon le sexe et le groupe d'âge, 1981 - 2017 : Une analyse de séries chronologiques dans la population

OBJECTIVES

Suicide is a complex global public health issue. The objective of this study was to assess time trends in suicide mortality in Canada by sex and age group.

METHODS

We extracted data from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database for all suicide deaths among individuals aged 10 years and older based on International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Ninth Revision (E950-959; 1981 to 1999) and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (X60-X84, Y87·0; 2000 to 2017) for a 37-year period, from 1981 to 2017. We calculated annual age-standardized, sex-specific, and age group-specific suicide mortality rates, and used Joinpoint Regression for time trend analysis.

RESULTS

The age-standardized suicide mortality rate in Canada decreased by 24.0% from 1981 to 2017. From 1981 to 2007, there was a significant annual average decrease in the suicide rate by 1.1% (95% confidence interval, -1.3 to -0.9), followed by no significant change between 2007 and 2017. From 1981 to 2017 and from 1990 to 2017, females aged 10 to 24 and 45 to 64 years old, respectively, had a significant increase in suicide mortality rates. However, males had the highest suicide mortality rates in all years in the study; the average male-to-female ratio was 3.4:1.

CONCLUSION

The 3-decade decline in suicide mortality rates in Canada paralleled the global trend in rate reductions. However, since 2008, the suicide rate in Canada was relatively unchanged. Although rates were consistently higher among males, we found significant rate increases among females in specific age groups. Suicide prevention efforts tailored for adult males and young and middle-aged females could help reduce the suicide mortality rate in Canada.

Total and cause-specific mortality in patients with personality disorders: the association between comorbid severe mental illness and substance use disorders

PURPOSE

To investigate the mortality in both in- and outpatients with personality disorders (PD), and to explore the association between mortality and comorbid substance use disorder (SUD) or severe mental illness (SMI).

METHODS

All residents admitted to Norwegian in- and outpatient specialist health care services during 2009-2015 with a PD diagnosis were included. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in patients with PD only and in patients with PD and comorbid SMI or SUD. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs in patients with PD and comorbid SMI or SUD compared to patients with PD only.

RESULTS

Mortality was increased in both in- and outpatients with PD. The overall SMR was 3.8 (95% CI 3.6-4.0). The highest SMR was estimated for unnatural causes of death (11.0, 95% CI 10.0-12.0), but increased also for natural causes of death (2.2, 95% CI 2.0-2.5). Comorbidity was associated with higher SMRs, particularly due to poisoning and suicide. Patients with comorbid PD & SUD had almost four times higher all-cause mortality HR than patients with PD only; young women had the highest HR.

CONCLUSION

The SMR was high in both in- and outpatients with PD, and particularly high in patients with comorbid PD & SUD. Young female patients with PD & SUD were at highest risk. The higher mortality in patients with PD cannot, however, fully be accounted for by comorbidity.

Changes in the quality of cause-of-death statistics in Brazil: garbage codes among registered deaths in 1996-2016

BACKGROUND

Registered causes in vital statistics classified as garbage codes (GC) are considered indicators of quality of cause-of-death data. Our aim was to describe temporal changes in this quality in Brazil, and the leading GCs according to levels assembled for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We also assessed socioeconomic differences in the burden of different levels of GCs at a regional level.

METHODS

We extracted data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System from 1996 to 2016. All three- and four-digit ICD-10 codes considered GC were selected and classified into four categories, according to the GBD study proposal. GC levels 1 and 2 are the most damaging unusable codes, or major GCs. Proportionate distribution of deaths by GC levels according selected variables were performed. Age-standardized mortality rates after correction of underreporting of deaths were calculated to investigate temporal relationships as was the linear association adjusted for completeness between GC rates in states and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) from the GBD study, for 1996-2005 and 2006-2016. We classified Brazilian states into three classes of development by applying tertiles cutoffs in the SDI state-level estimates.

RESULTS

Age-standardized mortality rates due to GCs in Brazil decreased from 1996 to 2016, particularly level 1 GCs. The most important GC groups were ill-defined causes (level 1) in 1996, and pneumonia unspecified (level 4) in 2016. At state level, there was a significant inverse association between SDI and the rate of level 1-2 GCs in 1996-2005, but both SDI and completeness had a non-expected significant direct association with levels 3-4. In 2006-2016, states with higher SDIs tended to have lower rates of all types of GCs. Mortality rates due to major GCs decreased in all three SDI classes in 1996-2016, but GC levels 3-4 decreased only in the high SDI category. States classified in the low or medium SDI groups were responsible for the most important decline of major GCs.

CONCLUSION

Occurrence of major GCs are associated with socioeconomic determinants over time in Brazil. Their reduction with decreasing disparity in rates between socioeconomic groups indicates progress in reducing inequalities and strengthening cause-of-death statistics in the country.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality in children and elderly in Ecuador: Time series analyses

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) reduce the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalizations. However, there is limited evidence of the effect of PCVs on pneumonia mortality in children. It is anticipated that indirect effects resulting from PCV use among children might further reduce the remaining burden of adult pneumococcal disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes contained in PCV. Whether this will result in reduced pneumonia mortality in children and adults is still not known.

METHODS

We investigated the impact of PCV on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality in in Ecuador, where PCV was introduced in 2010, considering national data from secondary data sources from 2005 to 2015. Time series analysis using regression models were used to evaluate the decline in the number of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths in the period post-PCV introduction. The target populations were children under 5 years and adults aged 50 years and over. Outcomes of interest were hospitalizations and mortality in which the main cause of hospital admission and death, respectively, were coded as ICD10 codes J12-18 (pneumonia). Three different models were fitted.

RESULTS

We demonstrate a sizeable impact of PCV in pneumonia hospitalization in children < 1 year (27% reduction, 95%CI 12-42%), and < 5 years of age (33% reduction, 95%CI 11-43%). The estimated impact of PCV in pneumonia mortality was a reduction of 14% in < 1 year (95%CI 0-33%), 10% in < 5 years (95%CI 0-25%), and 22% (95%CI 7-34%) in adults aged 50-64 years. Little evidence of a change was detected in elderly ≥ 65 years.

CONCLUSION

This study is the first to report on the impact of PCV in pneumonia morbidity and mortality in children and older adults, being relevant to policy makers and global donors. Findings were consistent when using different models. Additional studies on the indirect effect of PCV in older adults are needed.

Are cause of death data fit for purpose? evidence from 20 countries at different levels of socio-economic development

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Many countries have used the new ANACONDA (Analysis of Causes of National Death for Action) tool to assess the quality of their cause of death data (COD), but no cross-country analysis has been done to verify how different or similar patterns of diagnostic errors and data quality are in countries or how they are related to the local cultural or epidemiological environment or to levels of development. Our objective is to measure whether the usability of COD data and the patterns of unusable codes are related to a country's level of socio-economic development.

METHODS

We have assessed the quality of 20 national COD datasets from the WHO Mortality Database by assessing their completeness of COD reporting and the extent, pattern and severity of garbage codes, i.e. codes that provide little or no information about the true underlying COD. Garbage codes were classified into four groups based on the severity of the error in the code. The Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) was used to measure the overall quality of each country's mortality surveillance system.

FINDINGS

The proportion of 'garbage codes' varied from 7 to 66% across the 20 countries. Countries with a high SDI generally had a lower proportion of high impact (i.e. more severe) garbage codes than countries with low SDI. While the magnitude and pattern of garbage codes differed among countries, the specific codes commonly used did not.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an inverse relationship between a country's socio-demographic development and the overall quality of its cause of death data, but with important exceptions. In particular, some low SDI countries have vital statistics systems that are as reliable as more developed countries. However, in low-income countries, where most people die at home, the proportion of unusable codes often exceeds 50%, implying that half of all cause-specific mortality data collected is of little or no use in guiding public policy. Moreover, the cause of death pattern identified from the data is likely to seriously under-represent the true extent of the leading causes of death in the population, with very significant consequences for health priority setting. Garbage codes are prevalent at all ages, contrary to expectations. Further research into effective strategies deployed in these countries to improve data quality can inform efforts elsewhere to improve COD reporting systems.

Is impending or actual death of a spouse with dementia bad for mental health? Antidepressant use surrounding widowhood

Background

Previous studies have shown that the risk of death is elevated after the death of a spouse. Limited evidence is available on changes in mental health before and after bereavement among individuals whose spouse dies of dementia.

Methods

We analyzed changes in the 3-month prevalence of antidepressant use for 5 years before and 3 years after widowhood for individuals whose spouses died of either dementia or other causes. The study used data of 41 855 widowed individuals and repeated-measures logistic regression analyses. Antidepressant use was based on the prescription register of Finland in 1995–2007.

Results

Five years before widowhood, the 3-month prevalence for antidepressant use was 4% among widowing men and 6–7% among widowing women, regardless of whether the spouse died of dementia or other causes. Further changes in antidepressant use depended on a spouse’s cause of death. Women whose spouses died of dementia experienced large increase in antidepressant use starting from 3 to 4 years prior to widowhood, whereas other widows did not experience large increase until after widowhood. The trajectories for men were similar. Antidepressant use following the death of a spouse with dementia stayed at a new heightened level after widowhood.

Conclusions

The trajectories of antidepressant use indicate that the process of losing a spouse to dementia is bad for mental health, already a few years prior to widowhood. There are no clear improvements in mental health after the death of a spouse with dementia. Support services for individuals whose spouses’ dementia progresses are needed.

Alcohol-related mortality following the loss of a child: a register-based follow-up study from Norway

OBJECTIVES

The death of one's child is one of the most stressful events a person can experience. Research has shown that bereaved parents have a higher mortality than non-bereaved parents. This increased mortality might partly be caused directly by long-term stress. However, changes in health behaviour such as an increase in alcohol consumption might also play a role. This study examines the association between losing a child and alcohol-related mortality. In addition to Cox regression models using data covering the entire Norwegian adult population, we employ sibling fixed-effect models in order to partly control for genes and childhood experiences that might be associated with both losing a child and alcohol-related mortality.

DESIGN

A follow-up study between 1986 and 2014 based on Norwegian register data.

SETTING

Norway.

PARTICIPANTS

The entire Norwegian adult population.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Alcohol-related mortality.

RESULTS

An increased alcohol-related mortality was found among parents who had experienced the death of a child. The HR of alcohol-related mortality among those bereaved of a child was 1.59 (95% CI 1.48 to 1.71) compared with non-bereaved parents, for women 2.03 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.32) and for men 1.46 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.59). After including sibling fixed effects, the HR of alcohol-related mortality among parents who had lost a child was 1.30 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.64).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of an elevated alcohol-related mortality among parents who have lost a child compared with non-bereaved parents. Although strongly attenuated, there is still an association when adjusting for genetic predisposition for alcohol problems as well as childhood environment using sibling fixed-effect models.

Diagnostic tests and treatment procedures performed prior to cardiovascular death in individuals with severe mental illness

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether severe mental illnesses (i.e., schizophrenia or bipolar disorder) affected diagnostic testing and treatment for cardiovascular diseases in primary and specialized health care.

METHODS

We performed a nationwide study of 72 385 individuals who died from cardiovascular disease, of whom 1487 had been diagnosed with severe mental illnesses. Log-binomial regression analysis was applied to study the impact of severe mental illnesses on the uptake of diagnostic tests (e.g., 24-h blood pressure, glucose/HbA1c measurements, electrocardiography, echocardiography, coronary angiography, and ultrasound of peripheral vessels) and invasive cardiovascular treatments (i.e., revascularization, arrhythmia treatment, and vascular surgery).

RESULTS

Patients with and without severe mental illnesses had similar prevalences of cardiovascular diagnostic tests performed in primary care, but patients with schizophrenia had lower prevalences of specialized cardiovascular examinations (prevalence ratio (PR) 0.78; 95% CI 0.73-0.85). Subjects with severe mental illnesses had lower prevalences of invasive cardiovascular treatments (schizophrenia, PR 0.58; 95% CI 0.49-0.70, bipolar disorder, PR 0.78; 95% CI 0.66-0.92). The prevalence of invasive cardiovascular treatments was similar in patients with and without severe mental illnesses when cardiovascular disease was diagnosed before death.

CONCLUSION

Better access to specialized cardiovascular examinations is important to ensure equal cardiovascular treatments among individuals with severe mental illnesses.

Analysis of causes of death among brought-in-dead cases in a third-level Hospital in Lusaka, Republic of Zambia, using the tariff method 2.0 for verbal autopsy: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Over one third of deaths in Zambian health facilities involve someone who has already died before arrival (i.e., Brough in Dead), and in most BiD cases, the CoD have not been fully analyzed. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the function of automated VA based on the Tariff Method 2.0 to identify the CoD among the BiD cases and the usefulness by comparing the data on the death notification form.

METHODS

The target site was one third-level hospital in the Republic of Zambia's capital city. All BiD cases who reached the target health facility from January to August 2017 were included. The deceased's closest relatives were interviewed using a structured VA questionnaire and the data were analyzed using the SmartVA to determine the CoD at the individual and population level. The CoD were compared with description on the death notification forms by using t-test and Cohen's kappa coefficient.

RESULTS

One thousand three hundred seventy-eight and 209 cases were included for persons aged 13 years and older (Adult) and those aged 1 month to 13 years old (Child), respectively. The top CoD for Adults were infectious diseases followed by non-communicable diseases and that for Child were infectious diseases, followed by accidents. The proportion of cases with a determined CoD was significantly higher when using the SmartVA (75% for Adult and 67% for Child) than the death notification form (61%). A proportion (42.7% for Adult and 46% for Child) of the CoD-determined cases matched in both sources, with a low concordance rate for Adult (kappa coefficient = 0.1385) and a good for Child(kappa coefficient = 0.635).

CONCLUSIONS

The CoD of the BiD cases were successfully analyzed using the SmartVA for the first time in Zambia. While there many erroneous descriptions on the death notification form, the SmartVA could determine the CoD among more BiD cases. Since the information on the death notification form is reflected in the national vital statistics, more accurate and complete CoD data are required. In order to strengthen the death registration system with accurate CoD, it will be useful to embed the SmartVA in Zambia's health information system.

Actionable Exomic Secondary Findings in 280 Lebanese Participants

The expanded use of NGS tests in genetic diagnosis enables the massive generation of data related to each individual, among which some findings are of medical value. Over the last three and a half years, 280 unrelated Lebanese patients, presenting a wide spectrum of genetic disorders were referred to our center for genetic evaluation by WES. Molecular diagnosis was established in 56% of the cases, as was previously reported. The current study evaluates secondary findings in these patients in 59 genes, linked to conditions mostly responsive to medical interventions, as per the ACMG guidelines. Our analysis allowed us to detect 19 pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in 24 individuals from our cohort. Dominant actionable variants were found in 17 individuals representing 6% of the studied population. Genes associated with dominant cardiac diseases were the most frequently mutated: variants were found in 2.1% of our cohort. Genetic predisposition to cancer syndromes was observed in 1.07% of the cases. In parallel to dominant disease alleles, our analysis identified a recessive pathogenic disease allele in 2.5% of the individuals included in this study. Of interest, some variants were detected in different patients from our cohort thus urging the study of their prevalence in our population and the implementation, when needed, of specific genetic testing in the neonatal screening panel. In conclusion, here we report the first study estimating the actionable pathogenic variant load in the Lebanese population. Communicating current findings to the patients will enable them to benefit from a multi-disciplinary approach. Furthermore, tailoring the ACMG guidelines to the population is suggested, especially in highly consanguineous populations where the information related to recessive alleles might be highly beneficial to patients and their families.

Reducing ignorance about who dies of what: research and innovation to strengthen CRVS systems

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda offers a major impetus to consolidate and accelerate development in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Strengthening CRVS systems is an SDG outcome in itself. Moreover, CRVS systems are the best - if not essential - source of data to monitor and guide health policy debates and to assess progress towards numerous SDG targets and indicators. They also provide the necessary documentation and proof of identity for service access and are critical for disaster preparedness and response. While there has been impressive global momentum to improve CRVS systems over the past decade, several challenges remain. This article collection provides an overview of recent innovations, progress, viewpoints and key areas in which action is still required - notably around the need for better systems and procedures to notify the fact of death and to reliably diagnose its cause, both for deaths in hospital and elsewhere.

ANACONDA: a new tool to improve mortality and cause of death data

BACKGROUND

The need to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to have access to reliable and timely mortality data has created a strong demand in countries for tools that can assist them in this. ANACONDA (Analysis of National Causes of Death for Action) is a new tool developed for this purpose which allows countries to assess how accurate their mortality and cause of death are. Applying ANACONDA will increase confidence and capacity among data custodians in countries about their mortality data and will give them insight into quality problems that will assist the improvement process.

METHODS

ANACONDA builds on established epidemiological and demographic concepts to operationalise a series of 10 steps and numerous sub-steps to perform data checks. Extensive use is made of comparators to assess the plausibility of national mortality and cause of death statistics. The tool calculates a composite Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) to measure how fit for purpose the data are. Extracts from analyses of country data are presented to show the types of outputs.

RESULTS

Each of the 10 steps provides insight into how well the current data is describing different aspects of the mortality situation in the country, e.g. who dies of what, the completeness of the reporting, and the amount and types of unusable cause of death codes. It further identifies the exact codes that should not be used by the certifying physicians and their frequency, which makes it possible to institute a focused correction procedure. Finally, the VSPI(Q) allows periodic monitoring of data quality improvements and identifies priorities for action to strengthen the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) system.

CONCLUSIONS

ANACONDA has demonstrated the potential to dramatically improve knowledge about disease patterns as well as the functioning of CRVS systems and has served as a platform for galvanising wider CRVS reforms in countries.

Completeness of death registration in the Civil Registration System, India (2005 to 2015)

Background & objectives

In many developing countries including India, the civil registration data are incomplete, inadequate and not timely, therefore, compromising the usefulness of these data. The completeness of registration of death (CoRD) in the Indian Civil Registration System (CRS) was assessed from 2005 to 2015 at State level to understand its current status and trends over time and also to identify gaps in data to improve CRS data quality.

Methods

CoRD for each year for each State was calculated from the CRS reports for 2005-2015. Data were analyzed nationally by geographic region and individual State. The availability of CoRD by age group and sex was also reported.

Results

About 40 per cent increase in CoRD was documented for India between 2005 and 2015, with CoRD of 76.6 per cent in 2015. CoRD was >90 per cent in the western and southern regions and the eastern, central and northeastern regions had CoRD lower than the Indian average in 2015. Among the 29 States, 16 (55.2%) State had CoRD >80 per cent and five (17.2%) <50 per cent and 10 States recorded 100 per cent CoRD. Despite the highest per cent increase during 2005-2015 (108.5%), CoRD in Uttar Pradesh was 44.2 per cent in 2015. Varying levels of progress in 2015 were seen between the State with similar CoRD estimates in 2015. Nagaland (-63.3%), Manipur (-33.1%) and Tripura (-30.3%) were the only States that documented a decrease in CoRD during 2005-2015. The age non-availability for India ranged from 37.0 per cent in 2009 to 37.9 per cent in 2015, an average of 41.5 per cent over the seven years and was an average of 35.6 and 36.6 per cent for males and females, respectively. Age was available for all registered deaths only in five (17.2%) of the 29 States in 2009 and four (13.8%) in 2015. Sex non-availability for the recorded deaths was much lower as compared with that for age.

Interpretation & conclusions

Despite the significant progress made in CoRD in India, critical differences between the States within the CRS remain, with poor availability of reporting by age and sex. Concentrated efforts to assess the strengths and weaknesses at the State level of the CRS processes, quality of data and plausibility of information generated are needed in India.

Assessing the quality of cause of death data in six high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Japan and Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

To assess the policy utility of national cause of death (COD) data of six high-income countries with highly developed health information systems.

METHODS

National COD data sets from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Japan and Switzerland for 2015 or 2016 were assessed by applying the ANACONDA software tool. Levels, patterns and distributions of unusable and insufficiently specified "garbage" codes were analysed.

RESULTS

The average proportion of unusable COD was 18% across the six countries, ranging from 14% in Australia and Canada to 25% in Japan. Insufficiently specified codes accounted for a further 8% of deaths, on average, varying from 6% in Switzerland to 11% in Japan. The most commonly used garbage codes were Other ill-defined and unspecified deaths (R99), Heart failure (I50.9) and Senility (R54).

CONCLUSIONS

COD certification errors are common, even in countries with very advanced health information systems, greatly reducing the policy value of mortality data. All countries should routinely provide certification training for hospital interns and raise awareness among doctors of their public health responsibility to certify deaths correctly and usefully for public health policy.

Assessment of the quality of cause-of-death data in Greenland, 2006-2015

Background: While the system of registration of mortality and cause of death (COD) in Greenland was established several decades ago, reporting procedures follow a complicated administrative process. Timely and reliable reporting on mortality and COD is of high importance for the usability of the collected data for research, health planning and decision making. Methods: COD data collected by the Chief Medical Office in Greenland from 2006 to 2015 (4490 registered deaths) were analysed with the software Analysis of National Causes of Death for Action (ANACONDA) v4.0. Unusable or insufficiently specified ICD codes are identified. The Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) is estimated for the overall quality conclusions of the register's usability. Results: Sixty-eight per cent of the input data for Greenland was coded with a usable underlying COD, 24% with an unusable cause and 8% of deaths with an insufficiently specified cause. Almost 700 deaths were coded to an unusable code of 'very high impact'. The most prevalent unusable underlying causes were other ill-defined and unspecified causes, including no death certificate available, followed by senility, heart failure, sepsis and shock and cardiac arrest. The VSPI(Q) score was 66%, representing medium quality. Conclusions: In the 10 years' worth of data analysed, the true underlying COD in many cases was unknown. Several likely explanations for this include lack of systematic COD training for physicians, logistic and capacity challenges in Greenland that potentially could reduce the quality of the collected data and its usability in providing essential information about the true pattern of mortality in Greenland.

Are inequities decreasing? Birth registration for children under five in low-income and middle-income countries, 1999-2016

INTRODUCTION

Although global birth registration coverage has improved from 58% to 71% among children under five globally, inequities in birth registration coverage by wealth, urban/rural location, maternal education and access to a health facility persist. Few studies examine whether inequities in birth registration in low-income and middle-income countries have changed over time.

METHODS

We combined information on caregiver reported birth registration of 1.6 million children in 173 publicly available, nationally representative Demographic Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys across 67 low-income and middle-income countries between 1999 and 2016. For each survey, we calculated point estimates and 95% CIs for the percentage of children under 5 years without birth registration on average and stratified by sex, urban/rural location and wealth. For each sociodemographic variable, we estimated absolute measures of inequality. We then examined changes in non-registration and inequities between surveys, and annually.

RESULTS

14 out of 67 countries had achieved complete birth registration. Among the remaining 53 countries, 39 countries successfully decreased the percentage of children without birth registration. However, this reduction occurred alongside statistically significant increases in wealth inequities in 9 countries and statistically significant decreases in 10 countries. At the most recent survey, the percentage of children without birth registration was greater than 50% in 16 out of 67 countries.

CONCLUSION

Although birth registration improved on average, progress in reducing wealth inequities has been limited. Findings highlight the importance of monitoring changes in inequities to improve birth registration, to monitor Sustainable Development Goal 16.9 and to strengthen Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems.

Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15–49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with case surveillance and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or AIDS-related deaths. This article describes development and application of the case surveillance and vital registration (CSAVR) tool for the 2019 estimate round.

Methods:

Incidence in CSAVR is either estimated directly using single logistic, double logistic, or spline functions, or indirectly via the ‘r-logistic’ model, which represents the (log-transformed) per-capita transmission rate using a logistic function. The propensity to get diagnosed is assumed to be monotonic, following a Gamma cumulative distribution function and proportional to mortality as a function of time since infection. Model parameters are estimated from a combination of historical surveillance data on newly reported HIV cases, mean CD4⁺ at HIV diagnosis and estimates of AIDS-related deaths from vital registration systems. Bayesian calibration is used to identify the best fitting incidence trend and uncertainty bounds.

Results:

We used CSAVR to estimate HIV incidence, number of new diagnoses, mean CD4⁺ at diagnosis and the proportion undiagnosed in 31 European, Latin American, Middle Eastern, and Asian-Pacific countries. The spline model appeared to provide the best fit in most countries (45%), followed by the r-logistic (25%), double logistic (25%), and single logistic models. The proportion of HIV-positive people who knew their status increased from about 0.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.10–0.45] in 1990 to about 0.77 (IQR: 0.50–0.89) in 2017. The mean CD4⁺ at diagnosis appeared to be stable, at around 410 cells/μl (IQR: 224–567) in 1990 and 373 cells/μl (IQR: 174–475) by 2017.

Conclusion:

Robust case surveillance and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries while HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, CSAVR offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating and projecting trends in both HIV incidence and knowledge of HIV status.

Studying Geographic Inequalities in Mortality in Contexts with Deficient Data Sources: Lessons from Ecuador

BACKGROUND

In Ecuador, there are inequalities in the completeness and quality of the mortality registry between men and women and among geographical areas. Consequently, using cause of death statistics leads to several difficulties. Our aim was to analyze geographical inequalities in mortality due to some of the main specific causes of death in the provinces of Ecuador (2001-2016) after correction for the deficiencies found in the mortality registry.

METHODS

This ecologic study used mortality data from 2001 to 2016 for the 22 provinces of Ecuador at the beginning of the study period. We assessed completeness using death distribution methods for the intercensal period 2001-2010. We assessed quality by estimating the percentage of garbage codes for the entire study period. We corrected mortality using completeness as a correction factor and applying a garbage code redistribution protocol. We estimated age-standardized mortality ratios in the provinces of Ecuador for men and women, before and after applying the correction methods.

RESULTS

We found substantial changes in the number of deaths due to the selected causes after garbage code redistribution and correction for completeness. These changes corresponded to the deficiencies in completeness and quality found in the study areas and the manner in which garbage codes were redistributed to each of the studied causes. We observed changes in the geographical patterns of mortality due to specific causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Correcting deficiencies in the mortality registry resulted not only in changes in the number of deaths but also in the geographical patterns of mortality in Ecuador.

Quality of cause-of-death data in Brazil: Garbage codes among registered deaths in 2000 and 2015

INTRODUCTION

reliability of mortality data is essential for health assessment and planning. In Brazil, a high proportion of deaths is attributed to causes that should not be considered as underlying causes of deaths, named garbage codes (GC). To tackle this issue, in 2005, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) implements the investigation of GC-R codes (codes from chapter 18 "Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified, ICD-10") to improve the quality of cause-of-death data. This study analyzes the GC cause of death, considered as the indicator of data quality, in Brazil, regions, states and municipalities in 2000 and 2015.

METHODS

death records from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) were used. Analysis was performed for two GC groups: R codes and non-R codes, such as J18.0-J18.9 (Pneumonia unspecified). Crude and age-standardized rates, number of deaths and proportions were considered.

RESULTS

an overall improvement in the quality of mortality data in 2015 was detected, with variations among regions, age groups and size of municipalities. The improvement in the quality of mortality data in the Northeastern and Northern regions for GC-R codes is emphasized. Higher GC rates were observed among the older adults (60+ years old). The differences among the areas observed in 2015 were smaller.

CONCLUSION

the efforts of the MoH in implementing the investigation of GC-R codes have contributed to the progress of data quality. Investment is still necessary to improve the quality of cause-of-death statistics.