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Zhang S, Breitner S, De' Donato F, Stafoggia M, Nikolaou N, Aunan K, Peters A, Schneider A. Heat and cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality in Germany: a case-crossover study using small-area assessment. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2024; 46:101049. [PMID: 39290807 PMCID: PMC11406445 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.101049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2024] [Revised: 08/14/2024] [Accepted: 08/16/2024] [Indexed: 09/19/2024]
Abstract
Background High temperatures have been associated with increased mortality, with evidence reported predominately in large cities and for total cardiovascular or respiratory deaths. This case-crossover study examined heat-related cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality and vulnerability factors using small-area data from Germany. Methods We analyzed daily counts of cause-specific cardiopulmonary deaths from 380 German districts (2000-2016) and daily mean temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models. We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine heat effects during May-September in each district and random-effects meta-analysis to pool the district-specific estimates. Potential individual- and district-level vulnerability factors were examined by subgroup analyses and meta-regressions, respectively. Findings Heat was associated with increased mortality risks for all cardiopulmonary sub-causes. The relative risk (RR) of total cardiovascular and respiratory mortality for a temperature increment from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 1.24 (95% confidence interval: 1.23, 1.26) and 1.34 (1.30, 1.38), respectively. The RRs of cardiovascular sub-causes ranged from 1.16 (1.13, 1.19) for myocardial infarction to 1.32 (1.29, 1.36) for heart failure. For respiratory sub-causes, the RR was 1.27 (1.22, 1.31) for COPD and 1.49 (1.42, 1.57) for pneumonia. We observed greater susceptibility related to several individual- and district-level characteristics, e.g., among females or in highly urbanized districts. Heat vulnerability factors remained consistent between urban and rural areas. Interpretation Our study highlights heat-related increases in cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality across Germany and identifies key vulnerability factors, offering insights for improving public health practices to mitigate heat-related health impacts. Funding European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program; Helmholtz Associations Initiative and Networking Fund.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siqi Zhang
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, United States
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU, Munich, Germany
| | - Francesca De' Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Nikolaos Nikolaou
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU, Munich, Germany
| | - Kristin Aunan
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU, Munich, Germany
- Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Munich, Germany
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Dai W, Liu S, Xu W, Shen Y, Yang X, Zhou Q. The combined effects of heatwaves, air pollution and greenery on the risk of frailty: a national cohort study. Sci Rep 2024; 14:24293. [PMID: 39414842 PMCID: PMC11484785 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-73604-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2024] [Accepted: 09/19/2024] [Indexed: 10/18/2024] Open
Abstract
The associations between heatwaves and frailty, as well as the joint effects of heatwaves with air pollution and greenery, are currently unknown. This study leverages data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which collected information from 6,400 older adults between 2011 and 2018. Our outcome variable was frailty, as measured by the frailty index (FI > 0.21). Heatwaves were defined based on maximum temperature, incorporating four thresholds (≥ 97.5%, 97.5%, 92.5%, and 90%) and three durations (≥ 2, 3, and 4 days). These variables were considered as time-varying variables, representing the one-year exposure preceding survival events. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and greenery (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) were utilized as indicators of air pollution and greenery exposure, respectively, and were treated as time-varying indicators concurrent with heatwaves.Time-varying Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the independent effects, as well as the multiplicative and additive interactions of heatwaves, air pollution, and greenery on the risk of frailty. These effects were quantified using hazard ratios (HRs), a traditional product term representing the ratio of HRs, and the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Our findings indicate that heatwaves are associated with an increased risk of frailty, with HRs ranging from 1.035 (95% CI: 1.006-1.064) to 1.063 (95% CI: 1.028-1.101). We observed both a positive multiplicative interaction (HRs > 1) and an additive interaction (RERI > 0) between high level PM2.5 concentration, lack of greenery, and heatwaves. This study reveals that the combined effects exacerbate the adverse impact of heatwaves on the risk of frailty. Moreover, the combined effects of heatwaves, air pollution, and greenery exposure on frailty risk vary across age, gender, and educational attainment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weifang Dai
- Department of Information Technology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China
| | - Shanna Liu
- Department of Information Technology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China
| | - Weina Xu
- Department of Geriatric, Center for Regeneration and Aging Medicine, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China
| | - Yuqiang Shen
- Department of Information Technology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China
| | - Xiao Yang
- Department of Orthopaedics, YiWu Central Hospital, Zhejiang, 322000, China
| | - Qingli Zhou
- Department of Information Technology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China.
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Bu Y, Sun Z, Tao Y, Zhao X, Zhao Y, Liang Y, Hang X, Han L. The synergistic effect of high temperature and relative humidity on non-accidental deaths at different urbanization levels. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 940:173612. [PMID: 38823719 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2024] [Revised: 05/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/27/2024] [Indexed: 06/03/2024]
Abstract
Numerous studies have examined the impact of temperature on mortality, yet research on the combined effect of temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths remains limited. This study investigates the synergistic impact of high temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths in China, assessing the influence of urban development and urbanization level. Utilizing the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) of quasi-Poisson regression, we analyzed the relationship between Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and non-accidental deaths in 30 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2016, including Guangzhou during 2012-2016. We stratified temperature and humidity across these cities to evaluate the influence of varying humidity levels on deaths under high temperatures. Then, we graded the duration of heat and humidity in these cities to assess the impact of deaths with different durations. Additionally, the cities were categorized based on gross domestic product (GDP), and a vulnerability index was calculated to examine the impact of urban development and urbanization level on non-accidental deaths. Our findings reveal a pronounced synergistic effect of high temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths, particularly at elevated humidity levels. The synergies of high temperature and humidity are extremely complex. Moreover, the longer the duration of high temperature and humidity, the higher the risk of non-accidental death. Furthermore, areas with higher urbanization exhibited lower relative risks (RR) associated with the synergistic effects of heat and humidity. Consequently, it is imperative to focus on damp-heat related mortality among vulnerable populations in less developed regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaqin Bu
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Zhaobin Sun
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
| | - Yan Tao
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Xiuge Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
| | - Yuxin Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Yinglin Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Xiaoyi Hang
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Ling Han
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
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4
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Huang H, Lu Z, Fan X, Zhai W, Zhang L, Xu D, Liu Z, Li Y, Ye X, Qin H, Lanza K, Hang Y. Urban heatwave, green spaces, and mental health: A review based on environmental health risk assessment framework. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 948:174816. [PMID: 39019287 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174816] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2024] [Revised: 06/28/2024] [Accepted: 07/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/19/2024]
Abstract
Utilizing the framework of environmental health risk assessment and healing, the article reviews the effectiveness and potential of green space systems in mitigating the impact of high temperatures, promoting mental health, and improving the risk characteristics of high-temperature heat waves. We utilized CiteSpace software to conduct a time-zone analysis of the relationship between heatwaves, green spaces, and health using clustered data from 2001 to 2023. This study evaluates the role of green space systems in mitigating high temperatures and enhancing mental health within the environmental health risk assessment framework. Using CiteSpace software, we analyzed literature from 2001 to 2023, focusing on the interactions among heatwaves, green spaces, and health. Our results indicate that most existing research concentrates on hazard identification, with insufficient exploration of the dose-response relationships between green spaces and temperature reduction. Quantitative studies on green space design and spatial optimization are scarce, and guidance on effective configurations remains limited. Additionally, the health impacts of heatwaves vary by region, with a noticeable imbalance in research focus; Asia and Africa, in particular, are underrepresented in studies addressing heatwave effects. We conclude that effective mitigation strategies require: (1) a comprehensive environmental health risk assessment framework that integrates advanced methods like big data analysis and geospatial simulations to improve green space planning and design; (2) further theoretical exploration into the mechanisms by which green spaces regulate temperature and mental health, including detailed analysis of spatiotemporal patterns and the functional optimization of green space structures; and (3) the development of robust parameterized design guidance based on specific therapeutic dosages (green space stimulus) to optimize configurations and enhance the effectiveness of green spaces in mitigating adverse mental health impacts from deteriorating thermal environments. Future research should prioritize underrepresented regions, focusing on exposure levels, dose-response relationships, and high-temperature warning systems while fostering multidisciplinary collaboration to develop effective urban planning and climate adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huanchun Huang
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiang Su 210037, China; School of Architecture & Planning, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA; Department of Environmental & Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Zefeng Lu
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiang Su 210037, China
| | - Xinmei Fan
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiang Su 210037, China
| | - Wei Zhai
- School of Architecture & Planning, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA.
| | - Linchun Zhang
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiang Su 210037, China
| | - Di Xu
- School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
| | - Zhifeng Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yong Li
- The First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiang Su 210029, China
| | - Xinyue Ye
- School of Architecture, Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
| | - Haoming Qin
- School of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Construction Management, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA
| | - Kevin Lanza
- Department of Environmental & Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Yun Hang
- Department of Environmental & Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, TX 77030, USA.
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Zhang X, Han H. Characteristics and factors influencing the expansion of urban construction land in China. Sci Rep 2024; 14:16040. [PMID: 38992087 PMCID: PMC11239881 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-67015-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/13/2024] Open
Abstract
As a new product of rapid urbanization, the sprawl of urban construction land can objectively reflect urban land use efficiency, which is of great significance to China's new urban construction. This study aimed to summarize the expansion patterns and utilization efficiency of urban construction land in China from the perspectives of the status, speed and trends of expansion, and to uncover the key factors that lead to the differential distribution of the expansion of construction land. It can also provide land management experience for other countries with rapid expansion of construction land. The results show the following. (1) The expansion of China's construction land presents a "point-line-plane" pattern of evolution, forming changing stages of point-like aggregation, linear series and planar spread. (2) China's construction land shows the characteristics of disorderly spread, a low utilization rate and low output efficiency. The speed of expansion presents clear characteristics of being high in the east and low in the west, mostly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have the highest intensity of construction land use. In Shandong Peninsula and eastern coastal areas, the intensity of the construction land use is generally high. In Xinjiang and Xizang, the intensity of construction land use is relatively low. (3) The urban economic level, population size, industrial structure, foreign investment and land policies have significant effects on the spatial distribution of the expansion of construction land.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaodong Zhang
- College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Tarim University, Alaer, 843300, China
- College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Haoying Han
- College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
- Faculty of Innovation and Design, City University of Macau, Macau, China.
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Hu K, Wang S, Fei F, Song J, Chen F, Zhao Q, Shen Y, Fu J, Zhang Y, Cheng J, Zhong J, Yang X, Wu J. Modifying temperature-related cardiovascular mortality through green-blue space exposure. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY 2024; 20:100408. [PMID: 38560758 PMCID: PMC10979139 DOI: 10.1016/j.ese.2024.100408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Revised: 02/29/2024] [Accepted: 03/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Green-blue spaces (GBS) are pivotal in mitigating thermal discomfort. However, their management lacks guidelines rooted in epidemiological evidence for specific planning and design. Here we show how various GBS types modify the link between non-optimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality across different thermal extremes. We merged fine-scale population density and GBS data to create novel GBS exposure index. A case time series approach was employed to analyse temperature-cardiovascular mortality association and the effect modifications of type-specific GBSs across 1085 subdistricts in south-eastern China. Our findings indicate that both green and blue spaces may significantly reduce high-temperature-related cardiovascular mortality risks (e.g., for low (5%) vs. high (95%) level of overall green spaces at 99th vs. minimum mortality temperature (MMT), Ratio of relative risk (RRR) = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.21); for overall blue spaces, RRR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.29)), while specific blue space types offer protection against cold temperatures (e.g., for the rivers at 1st vs MMT, RRR = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.28)). Notably, forests, parks, nature reserves, street greenery, and lakes are linked with lower heat-related cardiovascular mortality, whereas rivers and coasts mitigate cold-related cardiovascular mortality. Blue spaces provide greater benefits than green spaces. The severity of temperature extremes further amplifies GBS's protective effects. This study enhances our understanding of how type-specific GBS influences health risks associated with non-optimal temperatures, offering valuable insights for integrating GBS into climate adaptation strategies for maximal health benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kejia Hu
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
- Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Shiyi Wang
- College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Fangrong Fei
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, China
| | - Jinglu Song
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, 215123, China
| | - Feng Chen
- Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou, 310008, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, China
| | - Yujie Shen
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Jingqiao Fu
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, 316021, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, China
| | - Jieming Zhong
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, China
| | - Xuchao Yang
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, 316021, China
| | - Jiayu Wu
- College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
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7
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Zhu Q, Zhou M, Zare Sakhvidi MJ, Yang S, Chen S, Feng P, Chen Z, Xu Z, Liu Q, Yang J. Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China. EBioMedicine 2024; 103:105119. [PMID: 38631093 PMCID: PMC11035030 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2023] [Revised: 03/27/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens. METHODS Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/education-specific mortality from future high temperature in 2010-2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes. FINDINGS Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5-nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of -0.4% (95% eCI: -0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI: -0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI: -3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of human-induced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths. INTERPRETATION Human activities would significantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study findings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health benefits for the patients with CVD. FUNDING National Natural Science Foundation of China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiongyu Zhu
- The Key Laboratory of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China; School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Mohammad Javad Zare Sakhvidi
- Department of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
| | - Siru Yang
- School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China
| | - Sujuan Chen
- School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China
| | - Puyu Feng
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China
| | | | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Qiyong Liu
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Jun Yang
- The Key Laboratory of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China; School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China.
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Madani Hosseini M, Zargoush M, Ghazalbash S. Climate crisis risks to elderly health: strategies for effective promotion and response. Health Promot Int 2024; 39:daae031. [PMID: 38568732 PMCID: PMC10989664 DOI: 10.1093/heapro/daae031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2024] Open
Abstract
The climate crisis significantly impacts the health and well-being of older adults, both directly and indirectly. This issue is of growing concern in Canada due to the country's rapidly accelerating warming trend and expanding elderly population. This article serves a threefold purpose: (i) outlining the impacts of the climate crisis on older adults, (ii) providing a descriptive review of existing policies with a specific focus on the Canadian context, and (iii) promoting actionable recommendations. Our review reveals the application of current strategies, including early warning systems, enhanced infrastructure, sustainable urban planning, healthcare access, social support systems, and community engagement, in enhancing resilience and reducing health consequences among older adults. Within the Canadian context, we then emphasize the importance of establishing robust risk metrics and evaluation methods to prepare for and manage the impacts of the climate crisis efficiently. We underscore the value of vulnerability mapping, utilizing geographic information to identify regions where older adults are most at risk. This allows for targeted interventions and resource allocation. We recommend employing a root cause analysis approach to tailor risk response strategies, along with a focus on promoting awareness, readiness, physician training, and fostering collaboration and benchmarking. These suggestions aim to enhance disaster risk management for the well-being and resilience of older adults in the face of the climate crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahsa Madani Hosseini
- Ted Rogers School of Management, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada
| | - Manaf Zargoush
- Health Policy & Management, DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4M4, Canada
| | - Somayeh Ghazalbash
- Management Analytics, Smith School of Business, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, K7L 3N6, Canada
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Hebbern C, Gosselin P, Chen K, Chen H, Cakmak S, MacDonald M, Chagnon J, Dion P, Martel L, Lavigne E. Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH = REVUE CANADIENNE DE SANTE PUBLIQUE 2023; 114:726-736. [PMID: 37308698 PMCID: PMC10484859 DOI: 10.17269/s41997-023-00782-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth. METHODS We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios. RESULTS For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging. CONCLUSION Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Pierre Gosselin
- Institut National de La Recherche Scientifique (Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Québec, QC, Canada
- Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale Center On Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Hong Chen
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Sabit Cakmak
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Melissa MacDonald
- Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, QC, Canada
| | | | - Patrice Dion
- Centre for Demography, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Laurent Martel
- Centre for Demography, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Eric Lavigne
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Cheng Y, Yu Z, Xu C, Manoli G, Ren X, Zhang J, Liu Y, Yin R, Zhao B, Vejre H. Climatic and Economic Background Determine the Disparities in Urbanites' Expressed Happiness during the Summer Heat. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2023; 57:10951-10961. [PMID: 37458710 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c01765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023]
Abstract
Climate-change-induced extreme weather events increase heat-related mortality and health risks for urbanites, which may also affect urbanites' expressed happiness (EH) and well-being. However, the links among EH, climate, and socioeconomic factors remain unclear. Here we collected ∼6 million geotagged tweets from 44 Chinese prefecture-level cities based on Sina Weibo and performed a quadratic regression model to explore the relationships between summer heat and EH. A three-stage analysis was developed to examine spatiotemporal heterogeneity and identify factors contributing to disparities in urbanites' EH. Results show that all cities exhibited a similar hump-shaped relationship, with an overall optimal temperature (OT) of 22.8 °C. The estimated OT varied geographically, with 25.3, 23.8, and 20.0 °C from north to south. Moreover, a 1 standard deviation increase in heatwave intensity was associated with a 0.813 (95% CI: 0.177, 1.449) standard deviation decrease in EH. Notably, within the geographic scope of this study, it was observed that urbanites in northern China and economically underdeveloped cities faced significantly lower heat risks during the summer heat. This research provides insight for future studies and practical applications concerning extreme weather events, urbanites' mental health, and sustainable urban development goal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yingyi Cheng
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 2005, People's Republic of China
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhaowu Yu
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 2005, People's Republic of China
| | - Chi Xu
- School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, People's Republic of China
| | - Gabriele Manoli
- Laboratory of Urban and Environmental Systems, School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Xiaopeng Ren
- Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
| | - Jinguang Zhang
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, People's Republic of China
| | - Yawen Liu
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, People's Republic of China
| | - Rui Yin
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, People's Republic of China
| | - Bing Zhao
- College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, People's Republic of China
| | - Henrik Vejre
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 1958, Denmark
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11
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de Schrijver E, Royé D, Gasparrini A, Franco OH, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, HEALTH : ERH 2023; 1:025003-25003. [PMID: 36969952 PMCID: PMC7614344 DOI: 10.1088/2752-5309/acab78] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Heat- and cold-related mortality risks are highly variable across different geographies, suggesting a differential distribution of vulnerability factors between and within countries, which could partly be driven by urban-to-rural disparities. Identifying these drivers of risk is crucial to characterize local vulnerability and design tailored public health interventions to improve adaptation of populations to climate change. We aimed to assess how heat- and cold-mortality risks change across urban, peri-urban and rural areas in Switzerland and to identify and compare the factors associated with increased vulnerability within and between different area typologies. We estimated the heat- and cold-related mortality association using the case time-series design and distributed lag non-linear models over daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality series between 1990-2017 in each municipality in Switzerland. Then, through multivariate meta-regression, we derived pooled heat and cold-mortality associations by typology (i.e. urban/rural/peri-urban) and assessed potential vulnerability factors among a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, land use and other environmental data. Urban clusters reported larger pooled heat-related mortality risk (at 99th percentile, vs. temperature of minimum mortality (MMT)) (relative risk=1.17(95%CI:1.10;1.24, vs peri-urban 1.03(1.00;1.06), and rural 1.03 (0.99;1.08)), but similar cold-mortality risk (at 1st percentile, vs. MMT) (1.35(1.28;1.43), vs rural 1.28(1.14;1.44) and peri-urban 1.39 (1.27-1.53)) clusters. We found different sets of vulnerability factors explaining the differential risk patterns across typologies. In urban clusters, mainly environmental factors (i.e. PM2.5) drove differences in heat-mortality association, while for peri-urban/rural clusters socio-economic variables were also important. For cold, socio-economic variables drove changes in vulnerability across all typologies, while environmental factors and ageing were other important drivers of larger vulnerability in peri-urban/rural clusters, with heterogeneity in the direction of the association. Our findings suggest that urban populations in Switzerland may be more vulnerable to heat, compared to rural locations, and different sets of vulnerability factors may drive these associations in each typology. Thus, future public health adaptation strategies should consider local and more tailored interventions rather than a one-size fits all approach. size fits all approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London United Kingdom
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London United Kingdom
| | - Oscar H Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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12
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Han L, Qin T, Sun Z, Ren H, Zhao N, An X, Wang Z. Influence of Urbanization on the Spatial Distribution of Associations Between Air Pollution and Mortality in Beijing, China. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000749. [PMID: 36925585 PMCID: PMC10013134 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Revised: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
This study investigated the influence of urbanization on the intra-city spatial distribution of associations between air pollution and mortality in Beijing, China. First, we utilized the generalized additive model to establish the exposure-response associations of PM2.5, O3, with nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory mortality between urban and suburban areas. Second, we assessed district-specific air pollution-related mortality and analyzed how these associations were affected by the degree of urbanization. Finally, we analyzed the changes in air pollution-related mortality before and after the enforcement of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (referred to as the Action Plan). The effect estimates of PM2.5 for nonaccidental mortality were 0.20% (95% CI: 0.12-0.28) in urban areas and 0.46% (95% CI: 0.35-0.58) in suburban areas per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations. The corresponding estimates of O3 were 0.13% (95% CI: -0.04-0.29) in urban areas and 0.34% (95% CI: 0.12-0.56) in suburban areas per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentrations; however, the difference between the estimates of O3 in urban and suburban areas was not statistically significant. The district-specific results suggested that the estimated risks increased along with urban vulnerability levels for the effects of PM2.5. Implementing the Action Plan reduced the mortality risks of PM2.5, but the risks of O3 increased in some districts. However, the difference in the estimates between the pre- and post-emission reductions was not statistically significant. Our study indicated that populations living in less urbanized areas are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of air pollution in Beijing, particularly for PM2.5.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ling Han
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and ControlNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Tian Qin
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and ControlNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Zhaobin Sun
- Institute of Urban MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina
- Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System SciencesSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
- China Meteorological Administration Urban Meteorology Key LaboratoryBeijingChina
| | - Hongyu Ren
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and ControlNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Na Zhao
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and ControlNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Xingqin An
- Institute of Atmospheric CompositionChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMAChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Zhanshan Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk AssessmentChinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijingChina
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13
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Navas-Martín MÁ, López-Bueno JA, Ascaso-Sánchez MS, Follos F, Vellón JM, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J, Linares C. Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983-2018). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4168. [PMID: 36901177 PMCID: PMC10002076 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is currently regarded as the greatest global threat to human health, and its health-related consequences take different forms according to age, sex, socioeconomic level, and type of territory. The aim of this study is to ascertain the differences in vulnerability and the heat-adaptation process through the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) among the Spanish population aged ≥65 years by territorial classification. A retrospective, longitudinal, ecological time-series study, using provincial data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the period 1983-2018, was performed, differentiating between urban and nonurban populations. The MMTs in the study period were higher for the ≥65-year age group in urban provinces, with a mean value of 29.6 °C (95%CI 29.2-30.0) versus 28.1 °C (95%CI 27.7-28.5) in nonurban provinces. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In terms of adaptation levels, higher average values were obtained for nonurban areas, with values of 0.12 (95%CI -0.13-0.37), than for urban areas, with values of 0.09 (95%CI -0.27-0.45), though this difference was not statistically significant (p < 0.05). These findings may contribute to better planning by making it possible to implement more specific public health prevention plans. Lastly, they highlight the need to conduct studies on heat-adaptation processes, taking into account various differential factors, such as age and territory.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Doctorate Program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education, 28015 Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Fernando Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol, 15401 A Coruña, Spain
| | | | - Isidro Juan Mirón
- Regional Health Authority of Castile La Mancha, 45500 Torrijos, Spain
| | | | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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14
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Tao J, Zheng H, Ho HC, Wang X, Hossain MZ, Bai Z, Wang N, Su H, Xu Z, Cheng J. Urban-rural disparity in heatwave effects on diabetes mortality in eastern China: A case-crossover analysis in 2016-2019. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 858:160026. [PMID: 36356755 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2022] [Revised: 10/25/2022] [Accepted: 11/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Diabetics are sensitive to high ambient temperature due to impaired thermoregulation. However, available evidence on the impact of prolonged high temperature (i.e., heatwave) on diabetes deaths is limited and whether urban and rural areas differ in heatwave vulnerability remains unknown so far. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was employed to estimate the association between heatwaves and diabetes deaths in 1486 districts (509 urban and 977 rural areas) of eastern China (Jiangsu Province), 2016-2019. For each decedent, residential heatwave exposure was measured by matching daily mean temperatures to the geocoded residential address. We adopted nine-tiered heatwave definitions incorporating intensity and duration. Stratified analyses by decedents' characteristics (gender, age, and education) were also conducted. During the study period, there were 18,685 deaths from diabetes (urban proportion: 36.95 %, p-value for urban-rural difference < 0.05). Heatwaves were associated with an increased risk of diabetes deaths, with greater and longer-lasting effects in rural areas than urban areas [e.g., rural odds ratio (OR): 1.19 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.25) vs. urban OR: 1.09 (95 % CI: 1.05, 1.12)]. Risk of diabetes deaths increased with the intensity of heatwaves in rural areas (p-value for trend <0.01), but not in urban areas. Stratified analyses in rural areas suggested that females and less-educated people were more vulnerable to heatwave-related diabetes deaths. Our findings revealed the urban-rural disparity in the risk of diabetes deaths associated with heatwaves. Rural diabetics should be made aware of the increased death risk posed by heatwaves in the context of warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junwen Tao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China
| | - Hao Zheng
- Department of Environmental Health, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Anaesthesiology, School of Clinical Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Xiling Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200231, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200135, China
| | - Mohammad Zahid Hossain
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Zhongliang Bai
- Department of Health Services Management, School of Health Services Management, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Ning Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Queensland, 288 Herston Road, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia.
| | - Jian Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China.
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15
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Guo K, Liu Y, Lan Z, Qin L, Lin T, Gan Q, Jin B, Chen M. A PETAR method for risk assessment of human health and environment on the regional scale. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2023; 19:239-253. [PMID: 35445528 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4621] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2021] [Revised: 03/25/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Risk assessments are necessary to effectively reveal the state of the degradation of living environments on a regional scale. However, risk assessments are often limited by time, cost, and technology, which make conducting effective evaluations difficult. Thus, in this study, the procedure for ecological tiered assessment of risk (PETAR) method was used to analyze the human health and environmental risks in Daye, China. This method first used the United States Environmental Protection Agency's risk assessment approach to qualitatively determine the risk sources, pressures, receptors, and effect endpoints and constructed a conceptual model of threats to the human living environment. Each risk-prone subregion was then evaluated using the fuzzy logic method. Next, a quantitative assessment was conducted for the subregions with the most serious environmental degradation. Finally, quantitative analyses were performed to verify the original hypotheses. The results showed that the high-risk areas were distributed in the industrial regions of Daye, wherein mining and processing clusters and mining settlements are widespread and confirmed the locations of the particular subregions with the most serious human health and environmental risks. This study also validated the practicality of the PETAR method for human health risk assessments in mining areas with large-scale, multifactor, and multihazard paths. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:239-253. © 2022 SETAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Guo
- School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yang Liu
- Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zeying Lan
- School of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
| | - Liangjun Qin
- Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou, China
| | - Tong Lin
- Guangdong Zhuo Chuang Township Construction Tourism Development Co., Ltd., Guangzhou, China
| | - Qiao Gan
- School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Bingbing Jin
- Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou, China
| | - Min Chen
- Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou, China
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16
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Manware M, Dubrow R, Carrión D, Ma Y, Chen K. Residential and Race/Ethnicity Disparities in Heat Vulnerability in the United States. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2022GH000695. [PMID: 36518814 PMCID: PMC9744626 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2022] [Revised: 10/03/2022] [Accepted: 11/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Adverse health outcomes caused by extreme heat represent the most direct human health threat associated with the warming of the Earth's climate. Socioeconomic, demographic, health, land cover, and temperature determinants contribute to heat vulnerability; however, nationwide patterns of residential and race/ethnicity disparities in heat vulnerability in the United States are poorly understood. This study aimed to develop a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for the United States; to assess differences in heat vulnerability across geographies that have experienced historical and/or contemporary forms of marginalization; and to quantify HVI by race/ethnicity. Principal component analysis was used to calculate census tract level HVI scores based on the 2019 population characteristics of the United States. Differences in HVI scores were analyzed across the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) "redlining" grades, the Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool (CEJST) disadvantaged versus non-disadvantaged communities, and race/ethnicity groups. HVI scores were calculated for 55,267 U.S. census tracts. Mean HVI scores were 17.56, 18.61, 19.45, and 19.93 for HOLC grades "A"-"D," respectively. CEJST-defined disadvantaged census tracts had a significantly higher mean HVI score (19.13) than non-disadvantaged tracts (16.68). The non-Hispanic African American or Black race/ethnicity group had the highest HVI score (18.51), followed by Hispanic or Latino (18.19). Historically redlined and contemporary CEJST disadvantaged census tracts and communities of color were found to be associated with increased vulnerability to heat. These findings can help promote equitable climate change adaptation policies by informing policymakers about the national distribution of place- and race/ethnicity-based disparities in heat vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mitchell Manware
- Department of Social and Behavioral SciencesYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
- Yale Center on Climate Change and HealthYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and HealthYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
- Department of Environmental Health SciencesYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
| | - Daniel Carrión
- Yale Center on Climate Change and HealthYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
- Department of Environmental Health SciencesYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
| | - Yiqun Ma
- Yale Center on Climate Change and HealthYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
- Department of Environmental Health SciencesYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
| | - Kai Chen
- Yale Center on Climate Change and HealthYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
- Department of Environmental Health SciencesYale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA
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17
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Conte Keivabu R. Extreme Temperature and Mortality by Educational Attainment in Spain, 2012-2018. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION = REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE 2022; 38:1145-1182. [PMID: 36507237 PMCID: PMC9727019 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-022-09641-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Extreme temperatures are a threat to public health, increasing mortality in the affected population. Moreover, there is substantial research showing how age and gender shape vulnerabilities to this environmental risk. However, there is only limited knowledge on how socioeconomic status (SES), operationalized using educational attainment, stratifies the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality. Here, we address this link using Poisson regression and administrative data from 2012 to 2018 for 50 Spanish Provinces on individuals aged above 65 matched with meteorological data provided by the E-OBS dataset. In line with previous studies, results show that hot and cold days increase mortality. Results on the interaction between SES and extreme temperatures show a positive and significant effect of exposure to heat and cold for individuals with medium and low SES level. Conversely, for high SES individuals we do not find evidence of a robust association with heat or cold. We further investigate how the local climate moderates these associations. A warmer climate increases risks with exposures to low temperatures and vice versa for hot temperatures in the pooled sample. Moreover, we observe that results are mostly driven by low SES individuals being particularly vulnerable to heat in colder climates and cold in warmer climates. In conclusion, results highlight how educational attainment stratifies the effect of extreme temperatures and the relevance of the local climate in shaping risks of low SES individuals aged above 65.
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Affiliation(s)
- Risto Conte Keivabu
- Department of Social and Political Sciences, European University Institute, Via della Badia dei Rocettini 9, 50014, San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy.
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18
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Song J, Lu Y, Zhao Q, Zhang Y, Yang X, Chen Q, Guo Y, Hu K. Effect modifications of green space and blue space on heat-mortality association in Hong Kong, 2008-2017. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 838:156127. [PMID: 35605868 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2021] [Revised: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite emerging recognition of the benefits of green and blue spaces on human health, evidence for their effect modifications on heat-mortality associations is limited. We aimed to investigate the effect modifications of green and blue spaces on heat-mortality associations among different age and sex groups and at different heat levels. METHODS Daily mortality and meteorological data from 2008 to 2017 in Hong Kong, China were collected. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and distance to coast were used as proxies for green and blue space exposure, respectively. Time-series analyses was performed using fitting generalized linear mixed models with an interaction term between heat and levels of exposure to either green or blue space. Age-, sex-, and heat level-stratified analyses were also conducted. RESULTS With a 1 °C increase in temperature above the 90th percentile (29.61 °C), mortality increased by 5.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6, 10.1%), 5.4% (1.4, 9.5%), and 4.6% (0.8, 8.9%) for low, medium and high levels of green space exposure, respectively, and by 7.5% (3.9, 11.2%) and 3.5% (0.3, 6.8%) for low and high levels of blue space exposure, respectively. Significant effect modifications of green and blue spaces were not observed for the whole population or any specific age and sex group, either at a moderate heat level or a heat level (Ps > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS No significant effect modifications of green and blue spaces on heat-related mortality risk were observed in Hong Kong. These findings challenge the existing evidence on the prominent protective role of green and blue spaces in mitigating heat-related mortality risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinglu Song
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China.
| | - Yi Lu
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China.
| | - Xuchao Yang
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China.
| | - Qian Chen
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China.
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia.
| | - Kejia Hu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Zijingang Campus, Hangzhou 310058, China.
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19
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Abstract
Rationale: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. Objectives: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. Methods: Regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. Results: Effect estimates and associated uncertainties varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C) were estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel and included the following: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socioeconomic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. Conclusions: This work provides an example of how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.
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Navas-Martín M, López-Bueno JA, Díaz J, Follos F, Vellón J, Mirón I, Luna M, Sánchez-Martínez G, Culqui D, Linares C. Effects of local factors on adaptation to heat in Spain (1983-2018). ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 209:112784. [PMID: 35090871 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112784] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Revised: 01/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The European Union is currently immersed in policy development to address the effects of climate change around the world. Key plans and processes for facilitating adaptation to high temperatures and for reducing the adverse effects on health are among the most urgent measures. Therefore, it is necessary to understand those factors that influence adaptation. The aim of this study was to provide knowledge related to the social, climate and economic factors that are related to the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) in Spain in the rural and urban contexts, during the 1983-2018 time period. For this purpose, local factors were studied regarding their relationship to levels of adaptation to heat. MMT is an indicator that allows for establishing a relationship to between mortality and temperature, and is a valid indicator to assess the capacity of adaptation to heat of a certain population. MMT is obtained through the maximum daily temperature and daily mortality of the study period. The evolution of MMT values for Spain was established in a previous paper. An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out. Generalized linear models (GLM) were performed to identify the variables that appeared to be related to adaptation. The adaptation was calculated as the difference in variation in MMT based on the average increase in maximum daily temperatures. In terms of adaptation to heat, urban populations have adapted more than non-urban populations. Seventy-nine percent (n = 11) of urban provinces have adapted to heat, compared to twenty-one percent (n = 3) of rural provinces that have not adapted. In terms of urban zones, income level and habituation to heat (values over the 95th percentile) were variables shown to be related to adaptation. In contrast, among non-urban provinces, a greater number of housing rehabilitation licenses and a greater number of health professionals were variables associated with higher increases in MMT, and therefore, with adaptation. These results highlight the need to carry out studies that allow for identifying the local factors that are most relevant and influential in population adaptation. More studies carried out at a small scale are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Má Navas-Martín
- Doctorate Program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education, Madrid, Spain; National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
| | - J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - F Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol. A Coruña, Spain
| | - Jm Vellón
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol. A Coruña, Spain
| | - Ij Mirón
- Regional Health Authority of Castile La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
| | - My Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - D Culqui
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
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21
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Huang Y, Zhang T, Lou J, Wang P, Huang L. Effective interventions on health effects of Chinese rural elderly under heat exposure. FRONTIERS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & ENGINEERING 2022; 16:66. [PMID: 35693986 PMCID: PMC9170494 DOI: 10.1007/s11783-022-1545-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2022] [Revised: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Due to climate change, the heatwave has become a more serious public health threat with aging as an aggravating factor in recent years. There is a pressing need to detect the most effective prevention and response measures. However, the specific health effects of interventions have not been characterized on an individual scale. In this study, an intervention experiment was designed to explore the health effects of heat exposure at the individual level and assess the effects of different interventions based on a comprehensive health sensitivity index (CHSI) in Xinyi, China. Forty-one subjects were recruited randomly, and divided into one control group and three intervention groups. Interventions included education (Educate by lecturing, offering relative materials, and communication), subsidy support (offer subsidy to offset the cost of running air conditioning), and cooling-spray (install a piece of cooling-spray equipment in the yard). Results showed that systolic blood pressure (SBP) and deep sleep duration (DSD) were significantly affected by short-term heat exposure, and the effects could be alleviated by three types of interventions. The estimated CHSI indicated that the effective days of the education group were longer than other groups, while the lower CHSI of the subsidy group showed lower sensitivity than the control group. These findings provide feasible implementation strategies to optimize Heat-health action plans and evaluate the intervention performance. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s11783-022-1545-4 and is accessible for authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujia Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023 China
| | - Ting Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023 China
| | - Jianing Lou
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023 China
| | - Peng Wang
- Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013 China
| | - Lei Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023 China
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22
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López-Bueno JA, Navas-Martín MA, Díaz J, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Culqui D, Linares C. Analysis of vulnerability to heat in rural and urban areas in Spain: What factors explain Heat's geographic behavior? ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 207:112213. [PMID: 34666017 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2021] [Revised: 09/21/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION There is currently little knowledge and few published works on the subject of vulnerability to heat in rural environments at the country level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine whether rural areas are more vulnerable to extreme heat than urban areas in Spain. This study aimed to analyze whether a pattern of vulnerability depends on contextual, environmental, demographic, economic and housing variables. METHODS An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out based on time series data between January 01, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in 42 geographic areas in 10 provinces in Spain. We first analyzed the functional relationship between the mortality rate per million inhabitants and maximum daily temperature (Tmax). We then determined the summer temperature threshold (Pthreshold) (June-September) at which increases in mortality are produced that are attributable to heat. In a second phase, based on Pthreshold, a vulnerability variable was calculated, and its distribution was analyzed using mixed linear models from the Poisson family (link = log). In these models, the dependent variable was vulnerability, and the independent variables were exposure to high temperatures, aridity of the climate, deprivation index, percentage of people over age 65, rurality index, percentage of housing built prior to 1980 and condition of dwellings. RESULTS Rurality was a protective factor, and vulnerability in urban areas was six times greater. In contrast, risk factors included aridity (RR = 5.89 (2.26 15.36)), living in cool summer zones (2.69 (1.23, 5.91)), poverty (4.05 (1.91 8.59)) and the percentage of dysfunctional housing (1.13 (1.04 1.24)). CONCLUSIONS Rural areas are less vulnerable to extreme heat than the urban areas analyzed. Also, population groups with worse working conditions and higher percentages of dwellings in poor conditions are more vulnerable.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A López-Bueno
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
| | - M A Navas-Martín
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - J Díaz
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - I J Mirón
- Consejería de Sanidad, Junta de Comunidades de Castilla la Mancha, Toledo, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - D Culqui
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - C Linares
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
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Xing Q, Sun Z, Tao Y, Shang J, Miao S, Xiao C, Zheng C. Projections of future temperature-related cardiovascular mortality under climate change, urbanization and population aging in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 163:107231. [PMID: 35436720 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2021] [Revised: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Xing
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - ZhaoBin Sun
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Yan Tao
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
| | - Jing Shang
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - Shiguang Miao
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - Chan Xiao
- National Climate Center, China Meteorology Administration, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Canjun Zheng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
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24
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Mapping Heat-Health Vulnerability Based on Remote Sensing: A Case Study in Karachi. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14071590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
As a result of global climate change, the frequency and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), extreme temperatures in southwestern Pakistan have exceeded 54 °C in successive years. The identification and assessment of heat-health vulnerability (HHV) are important for controlling heat-related diseases and mortality. At present, heat waves have many definitions. To better describe the heat wave mortality risk, we redefine the heat wave by regarding the most frequent temperature (MFT) as the minimum temperature threshold for HHV for the first time. In addition, different indicators that serve as relevant evaluation factors of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability are selected to conduct a kilometre-level HHV assessment. The hesitant analytic hierarchy process (H-AHP) method is used to evaluate each index weight. Finally, we incorporate the weights into the data layers to establish the final HHV assessment model. The vulnerability in the study area is divided into five levels, high, middle-high, medium, middle-low and low, with proportions of 3.06%, 46.55%, 41.85%, 8.53% and 0%, respectively. Health facilities and urbanization were found to provide advantages for vulnerability reduction. Our study improved the resolution to describe the spatial heterogeneity of HHV, which provided a reference for more detailed model construction. It can help local government formulate more targeted control measures to reduce morbidity and mortality during heat waves.
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25
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Meng Q, Hu D, Zhang Y, Chen X, Zhang L, Wang Z. Do industrial parks generate intra-heat island effects in cities? New evidence, quantitative methods, and contributing factors from a spatiotemporal analysis of top steel plants in China. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2022; 292:118383. [PMID: 34666099 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.118383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2021] [Revised: 10/12/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Industrial parks emit large amounts of anthropogenic heat and aggravate the urban heat island effect, which has become a severe environmental problem worldwide. Few studies explored if the warming effect generated by concentrated industrial facilities (i.e., steel plants in this study) produces an intra-heat island effect in urban built-up areas. Sufficient evidence of an industrial heat island (IHI) effect is lacking, and new quantitative methods are urgently needed to address these issues. Therefore, we proposed a new scheme to quantify the warming effect of large, heat-emitting urban objects versus complex surroundings, and the IHI effect was accordingly defined at a finer scale. This study separated the industrial park from other artificial lands and comprehensively estimated the IHI effects' spatiotemporal variation. The IHI intensities were measured based on varied natural and urbanized references, which provided new evidence for the existence of the IHI effect over space and seasons. The land surface temperature (LST) profiles delineated the downward trend in LST variation from inside to surroundings in the IHI cases on both spatial and temporal scales. The time-series analysis revealed that the IHI effects demonstrated more significant disparities regarding the LSTs between the industrial parks and their surrounding backgrounds during warm seasons than in cold seasons. And a more severe IHI effect was observed in spring and summer, and the weakest IHI intensity occurred in winter. Moreover, the IHI intensity is positively associated to the anthropogenic heat, indicating that the industrial activities contribute to the increased LSTs of the industrial park to a great extent. The rationale of the IHI effect can broaden insight for understanding how urban industrial heat sources influence the regional thermal environment, especially at a finer scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingyan Meng
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Die Hu
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
| | - Ying Zhang
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Xu Chen
- College of Tourism and Resources and Environment, Zaozhuang University, Zaozhuang, Shangdong, 277160, China
| | - Linlin Zhang
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Zian Wang
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
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26
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Liu T, Meng H, Yu M, Xiao Y, Huang B, Lin L, Zhang H, Hu R, Hou Z, Xu Y, Yuan L, Qin M, Zhao Q, Xu X, Gong W, Hu J, Xiao J, Chen S, Zeng W, Li X, He G, Rong Z, Huang C, Du Y, Ma W. Urban-rural disparity of the short-term association of PM 2.5 with mortality and its attributable burden. Innovation (N Y) 2021; 2:100171. [PMID: 34778857 PMCID: PMC8577160 DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Although studies have investigated the associations between PM2.5 and mortality risk, evidence from rural areas is scarce. We aimed to compare the PM2.5-mortality associations between urban cities and rural areas in China. Daily mortality and air pollution data were collected from 215 locations during 2014–2017 in China. A two-stage approach was employed to estimate the location-specific and combined cumulative associations between short-term exposure to PM2.5 (lag 0–3 days) and mortality risks. The excess risks (ER) of all-cause, respiratory disease (RESP), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cerebrovascular disease (CED) mortality for each 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 across all locations were 0.54% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.38%, 0.70%), 0.51% (0.10%, 0.93%), 0.74% (0.50%, 0.97%), and 0.52% (0.20%, 0.83%), respectively. Slightly stronger associations for CVD (0.80% versus 0.60%) and CED (0.61% versus 0.26%) mortality were observed in urban cities than in rural areas, and slightly greater associations for RESP mortality (0.51% versus 0.43%) were found in rural areas than in urban cities. A mean of 2.11% (attributable fraction [AF], 95% CI: 1.48%, 2.76%) of all-cause mortality was attributable to PM2.5 exposure in China, with a larger AF in urban cities (2.89% [2.12%, 3.67%]) than in rural areas (0.61% [−0.60%, 1.84%]). Disparities in PM2.5-mortality associations between urban cities and rural areas were also found in some subgroups classified by sex and age. This study provided robust evidence on the associations of PM2.5 with mortality risks in China and demonstrated urban-rural disparities of PM2.5-mortality associations for various causes of death. PM2.5 had greater effects on CVD/CED mortality in urban cities than in rural areas PM2.5 had stronger effects on RESP mortality in rural areas than in urban cities An annual mean of 16.5/100,000 deaths was attributable to PM2.5 in urban cities An annual mean of 3.4//100,000 deaths was attributable to PM2.5 in rural areas Spatially targeted measures are needed to reduce PM2.5-related mortality in China
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Liu
- School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.,Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Haorong Meng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Min Yu
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
| | - Yize Xiao
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China
| | - Biao Huang
- Health Hazard Factors Control Department, Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Lifeng Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Haoming Zhang
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China
| | - Ruying Hu
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
| | - Zhulin Hou
- Health Hazard Factors Control Department, Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Yanjun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Letao Yuan
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Mingfang Qin
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China
| | - Qinglong Zhao
- Health Hazard Factors Control Department, Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Xiaojun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Weiwei Gong
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Siqi Chen
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Zuhua Rong
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Yaodong Du
- Guangdong Provincial Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.,Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
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27
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Wang Q, Zhang Y, Ban J, Zhu H, Xu H, Li T. The relationship between population heat vulnerability and urbanization levels: A county-level modeling study across China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2021; 156:106742. [PMID: 34224997 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2021] [Revised: 06/24/2021] [Accepted: 06/24/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The purpose of this work was to assess population vulnerability to heat-related health risks and its relationship with urbanization levels to provide essential information for the future development and policy-making for climate change adaptation. We constructed a heat vulnerability index (HVI), quantified the population heat vulnerability in each county across China by a principal component analysis (PCA) of multiple factors, and assessed urbanization levels in each county using multisource data. Then, the HVI was validated using the heat-attributable fraction (heat-AF) of nonaccidental mortality based on death monitoring data and meteorological data from 95 counties across China. The results showed that our HVI was significantly positively associated with the heat AF of nonaccidental mortality. A negative correlation was observed between the urbanization level and the HVI. The HVI was generally higher in less urbanized western China and lower in the more urbanized eastern regions. The baseline mortality occupies the top position in the importance ranking of the heat-vulnerability indicators at all three urbanization levels, but the other indicators, including the aging rate, agricultural population rate, education, ethnic structure, economic status, air conditioner ownership rate, and number of hospitals, ranked differently among different urbanization levels. This finding indicates that to reduce population heat vulnerability, the most important approach is to improve the health status of the whole population and reduce baseline mortality; additionally, regional-specific measures and emphasis should be adjusted reasonably along with the process of urbanization according to the characteristics and key factors of local heat vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Wang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
| | - Yayi Zhang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China; School of Geomatics and Marine Information, Jiangsu Ocean University, Lianyungang 222005, China
| | - Jie Ban
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
| | - Huanhuan Zhu
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China; Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018, China
| | - Huaiyue Xu
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
| | - Tiantian Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
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28
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Choi HM, Chen C, Son JY, Bell ML. Temperature-mortality relationship in North Carolina, USA: Regional and urban-rural differences. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 787:147672. [PMID: 34000533 PMCID: PMC8214419 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health disparities exist between urban and rural populations, yet research on rural-urban disparities in temperature-mortality relationships is limited. As inequality in the United States increases, understanding urban-rural and regional differences in the temperature-mortality association is crucial. OBJECTIVE We examined regional and urban-rural differences of the temperature-mortality association in North Carolina (NC), USA, and investigated potential effect modifiers. METHODS We applied time-series models allowing nonlinear temperature-mortality associations for 17 years (2000-2016) to generate heat and cold county-specific estimates. We used second-stage analysis to quantify the overall effects. We also explored potential effect modifiers (e.g. social associations, greenness) using stratified analysis. The analysis considered relative effects (comparing risks at 99th to 90th temperature percentiles based on county-specific temperature distributions for heat, and 1st to 10th percentiles for cold) and absolute effects (comparing risks at specific temperatures). RESULTS We found null effects for heat-related mortality (relative effect: 1.001 (95% CI: 0.995-1.007)). Overall cold-mortality risk for relative effects was 1.019 (1.015-1.023). All three regions had statistically significant cold-related mortality risks for relative and absolute effects (relative effect: 1.019 (1.010-1.027) for Coastal Plains, 1.021 (1.015-1.027) for Piedmont, 1.014 (1.006-1.023) for Mountains). The heat mortality risk was not statistically significant, whereas the cold mortality risk was statistically significant, showing higher cold-mortality risks in urban areas than rural areas (relative effect for heat: 1.006 (0.997-1.016) for urban, 1.002 (0.988-1.017) for rural areas; relative effect for cold: 1.023 (1.017-1.030) for urban, 1.012 (1.001-1.023) for rural areas). Findings are suggestive of higher relative cold risks in counties with the less social association, higher population density, less green-space, higher PM2.5, lower education level, higher residential segregation, higher income inequality, and higher income (e.g., Ratio of Relative Risks 1.72 (0.68, 4.35) comparing low to high education). CONCLUSION Results indicate cold-mortality risks in NC, with potential differences by regional, urban-rural areas, and community characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Chen Chen
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Ji-Young Son
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
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29
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Zhu D, Zhou Q, Liu M, Bi J. Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 782:146760. [PMID: 33836376 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08-1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22-6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: -17,637-31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: -10,516-44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dianyu Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Qi Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Miaomiao Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Jun Bi
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
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Lee W, Choi M, Bell ML, Kang C, Jang J, Song I, Kim YO, Ebi K, Kim H. Effects of urbanization on vulnerability to heat-related mortality in urban and rural areas in South Korea: a nationwide district-level time-series study. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 51:111-121. [PMID: 34386817 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although urbanization is often an important topic in climate change studies, the complex effect of urbanization on heat vulnerability in urban and rural areas has rarely been studied. We investigated the disparate effects of urbanization on heat vulnerability in urban and rural areas, using nationwide data. METHODS We collected daily weather data for all 229 administrative districts in South Korea (2011-17). Population density was applied as an urbanization indicator. We calculated the heat-mortality risk using a distributed lag nonlinear model and analysed the relationship with population density. We also examined district characteristics that can be related to the spatial heterogeneity in heat-mortality risk. RESULTS We found a U-shaped association between population density and heat-mortality risk, with the highest risk for rural populations; in urban areas, risk increases with increasing population density. Higher heat-mortality risk was associated with a lower number of hospital beds per person and higher percentage of people requiring recuperation. The association between hospital beds and heat-mortality risk was prominent in high-density urban areas, whereas the association between the percentage of people requiring recuperation and heat-mortality risk was pronounced in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the association between population density and heat-mortality risk is different in urban and rural areas, and that district characteristics related to heat-mortality risk also differ by urbanicity. These results can contribute to understanding the complex role of urbanization on heat vulnerability and can provide evidence to policy makers for prioritizing resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Munjeong Choi
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Cinoo Kang
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jeongju Jang
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Insung Song
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yong-Ook Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Kristie Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute for Sustainable Development, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
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Lee W, Ebi KL, Kim Y, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hideki H, Choi HM, Choi M, Kim H. Heat-mortality risk and the population concentration of metropolitan areas in Japan: a nationwide time-series study. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 50:602-612. [PMID: 33346831 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyaa245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 11/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The complex role of urbanisation in heat-mortality risk has not been fully studied. Japan has experienced a rapid population increase and densification in metropolitan areas since the 2000s; we investigated the effects of population concentration in metropolitan areas on heat-mortality risk using nationwide data. METHODS We collected time-series data for mortality and weather variables for all 47 prefectures in Japan (1980-2015). The prefectures were classified into three sub-areas based on population size: lowest (<1 500 000), intermediate (1 500 000 to 3 000 000), and highest (>3 000 000; i.e. metropolitan areas). Regional indicators associated with the population concentration of metropolitan areas were obtained. RESULTS Since the 2000s, the population concentration intensified in the metropolitan areas, with the highest heat-mortality risk in prefectures with the highest population. Higher population density and apartment % as well as lower forest area and medical services were associated with higher heat-mortality risk; these associations have generally become stronger since the 2000s. CONCLUSIONS Population concentration in metropolitan areas intensified interregional disparities in demography, living environments, and medical services in Japan; these disparities were associated with higher heat-mortality risk. Our results can contribute to policies to reduce vulnerability to high temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Whanhee Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Hashimoto Hideki
- Department of Health Economics and Epidemiology Research, School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hayon Michelle Choi
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Moonjung Choi
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Pascal M, Goria S, Wagner V, Sabastia M, Guillet A, Cordeau E, Mauclair C, Host S. Greening is a promising but likely insufficient adaptation strategy to limit the health impacts of extreme heat. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2021; 151:106441. [PMID: 33640693 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2020] [Revised: 01/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Adapting the urban environment to heat is a public health priority in the context of climate change. Cities are now considering interventions on specific urban characteristics known to contribute to the urban heat island (UHI) such as vegetation and imperviousness. OBJECTIVES To explore how these urban characteristics influence the temperature-mortality relationship in the Paris region. METHODS We modeled the temperature-mortality relationship for the 1300 municipalities of the region from 1990 to 2015, while including an interaction with indicators that summarize the municipalities' main urban characteristics. Four indicators were tested: lack of green spaces, lack of trees, proportion of impervious surface, and overexposed population to a potential night UHI. RESULTS The shape of the temperature-mortality relationship was similar across all municipalities, but with a higher slope at the highest temperatures in municipalities with less green spaces, less trees, and more impervious soil. For instance, in Paris and its close suburbs, the relative risk associated with a temperature in the 99th percentile of the temperature distribution (compared to the 50th percentile) was 2.17 [IC95% 1.98:2.38] in municipalities with 40% of their surface covered by trees compared to 2.57 [IC 95% 2.47:2.68] in municipalities with only 3% of their surface covered by trees. DISCUSSION A lack of vegetation and a high degree of imperviousness were associated with a higher risk of heat-related mortality in the Paris region. Therefore, we can assume that interventions targeting these characteristics could reduce the health impacts of extreme heat. Such interventions should be coupled with other initiatives such as protecting the most vulnerable and promoting appropriate behaviors.
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López-Bueno JA, Navas-Martín MA, Linares C, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Culqui D, Díaz J. Analysis of the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in urban and rural areas in Madrid. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 195:110892. [PMID: 33607097 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Revised: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to analyze and compare the effect of high temperatures on daily mortality in the urban and rural populations in Madrid. Data were analyzed from municipalities in Madrid with a population of over 10,000 inhabitants during the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2020. Four groups were generated: Urban Metropolitan Center, Rural Northern Mountains, Rural Center, and Southern Rural. The dependent variable used was the rate of daily mortality due to natural causes per million inhabitants (CIE-X: A00-R99) between the months of June and September for the period. The primary independent variable was maximum daily temperature. Social and demographic "context variables" were included: population >64 years of age (%), deprivation index and housing indicators. The analysis was carried out in three phases: 1) determination of the threshold definition temperature of a heat wave (Tumbral) for each study group; 2) determination of relative risks (RR) attributable to heat for each group using Poisson linear regression (GLM), and 3) calculation of odds ratios (OR) using binomial family GLM for the frequency of the appearance of heat waves associated with context variables. The resulting percentiles (for the series of maximum daily temperatures for the summer months) corresponding to Tthreshold were: 74th percentile for Urban Metropolitan Center, 76th percentile for Southern Rural, 83rd for Rural Northern Mountains and 98th percentile for Center Rural (98). Greater vulnerability was found for the first two. In terms of context variables that explained the appearance of heat waves, deprivation index level, population >64 years of age and living in the metropolitan area were found to be risk factors. Rural and urban areas behaved differently, and socioeconomic inequality and the composition of the population over age 64 were found to best explain the vulnerability of the Rural Center and Southern Rural zones.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain.
| | - M A Navas-Martín
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - I J Mirón
- Consejería de Sanidad, Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - D Culqui
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
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Xing Q, Sun Z, Tao Y, Zhang X, Miao S, Zheng C, Tong S. Impacts of urbanization on the temperature-cardiovascular mortality relationship in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 191:110234. [PMID: 32956657 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The effect of temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has been extensively studied. However, it remains largely unknown over whether there is any difference between urban and suburban areas within the same city and how urbanization modifies the relationship between temperature and CVD mortality. In order to examine whether the association between temperature and CVD mortality existed difference in urban and suburban areas, and how urbanization modified this association, we used a distributed lag nonlinear model and a generalized additive model to investigate temperature-related CVD mortality in urban and suburban areas in Beijing, China, from 2006 to 2011. The age, gender, and educational attainment of the population were stratified to explore the modifying effect. We observed that the impacts of heat and cold temperature on CVD mortality were higher in suburban areas than in urban areas. In addition, the elderly and illiterate subjects in suburban areas were more vulnerable to both heat and cold than their counterparts in urban areas. Moreover, higher urbanization levels were significantly associated with districts having lower the excess risks for temperature- CVD mortality. Our findings provide evidence that populations in suburban Beijing have higher risk of temperature-related CVD mortality than those in urban areas. Therefore, greater attention should be paid to vulnerable groups in suburban areas to reduce temperature-related health burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Xing
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - ZhaoBin Sun
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China.
| | - Yan Tao
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Xiaoling Zhang
- Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China
| | - Shiguang Miao
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Canjun Zheng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Australia
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Jang J, Lee W, Choi M, Kang C, Kim H. Roles of urban heat anomaly and land-use/land-cover on the heat-related mortality in the national capital region of South Korea: A multi-districts time-series study. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 145:106127. [PMID: 32950794 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2020] [Revised: 09/08/2020] [Accepted: 09/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The urban heat anomaly has been suggested as a representative risk factor for human health in metropolitan areas, but few studies have measured a quantitative increase in risk due to the urban heat anomaly on heat-related mortality in the summer season or assessed the role of various types of land-use/land-cover (LULC), which may contribute to the urban heat anomaly. In this study, we evaluated the association between the urban heat anomaly and heat-related mortality risk in the summer and the potential roles of multiple types of LULC indicators. We used district-level time-series and cadastral data from 51 urban districts in the national capital region of South Korea. We applied a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, we estimated the district-specific heat-related mortality risk by using a distributed lag non-linear model. In the second stage, we used a meta-analysis to pool the estimates across all districts and calculate the association between the urban heat anomaly/LULC indicators and heat-related mortality risk. We found that the higher urban heat anomaly was related to lower vegetation and higher urban surface indicators, and the urban heat anomaly was positively associated with the heat-related mortality risk. The association between the urban heat anomaly and the heat-related mortality risk was more pronounced in the elderly (age ≥ 65 years) and female population than in the non-elderly and male population. We also found that the LULC indicators affected the heat-related mortality only through the urban heat anomaly. Our findings indicate that urban areas may be more vulnerable to heat-related mortality risk as determined by the urban heat anomaly. These results suggest a need for urban heat mitigation strategies such as increased vegetation or surface albedo to help reduce heat-related mortality risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeongju Jang
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea
| | - Munjeong Choi
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea
| | - Cinoo Kang
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea.
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Xu R, Zhao Q, Coelho MSZS, Saldiva PHN, Abramson MJ, Li S, Guo Y. Socioeconomic level and associations between heat exposure and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization in 1,814 Brazilian cities: A nationwide case-crossover study. PLoS Med 2020; 17:e1003369. [PMID: 33031393 PMCID: PMC7544074 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat exposure, which will increase with global warming, has been linked to increased risk of a range of types of cause-specific hospitalizations. However, little is known about socioeconomic disparities in vulnerability to heat. We aimed to evaluate whether there were socioeconomic disparities in vulnerability to heat-related all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization among Brazilian cities. METHODS AND FINDINGS We collected daily hospitalization and weather data in the hot season (city-specific 4 adjacent hottest months each year) during 2000-2015 from 1,814 Brazilian cities covering 78.4% of the Brazilian population. A time-stratified case-crossover design modeled by quasi-Poisson regression and a distributed lag model was used to estimate city-specific heat-hospitalization association. Then meta-analysis was used to synthesize city-specific estimates according to different socioeconomic quartiles or levels. We included 49 million hospitalizations (58.5% female; median [interquartile range] age: 33.3 [19.8-55.7] years). For cities of lower middle income (LMI), upper middle income (UMI), and high income (HI) according to the World Bank's classification, every 5°C increase in daily mean temperature during the hot season was associated with a 5.1% (95% CI 4.4%-5.7%, P < 0.001), 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%, P < 0.001), and 2.6% (1.7%-3.4%, P < 0.001) increase in all-cause hospitalization, respectively. The inter-city socioeconomic disparities in the association were strongest for children and adolescents (0-19 years) (increased all-cause hospitalization risk with every 5°C increase [95% CI]: 9.9% [8.7%-11.1%], P < 0.001, in LMI cities versus 5.2% [4.1%-6.3%], P < 0.001, in HI cities). The disparities were particularly evident for hospitalization due to certain diseases, including ischemic heart disease (increase in cause-specific hospitalization risk with every 5°C increase [95% CI]: 5.6% [-0.2% to 11.8%], P = 0.060, in LMI cities versus 0.5% [-2.1% to 3.1%], P = 0.717, in HI cities), asthma (3.7% [0.3%-7.1%], P = 0.031, versus -6.4% [-12.1% to -0.3%], P = 0.041), pneumonia (8.0% [5.6%-10.4%], P < 0.001, versus 3.8% [1.1%-6.5%], P = 0.005), renal diseases (9.6% [6.2%-13.1%], P < 0.001, versus 4.9% [1.8%-8.0%], P = 0.002), mental health conditions (17.2% [8.4%-26.8%], P < 0.001, versus 5.5% [-1.4% to 13.0%], P = 0.121), and neoplasms (3.1% [0.7%-5.5%], P = 0.011, versus -0.1% [-2.1% to 2.0%], P = 0.939). The disparities were similar when stratifying the cities by other socioeconomic indicators (urbanization rate, literacy rate, and household income). The main limitations were lack of data on personal exposure to temperature, and that our city-level analysis did not assess intra-city or individual-level socioeconomic disparities and could not exclude confounding effects of some unmeasured variables. CONCLUSIONS Less developed cities displayed stronger associations between heat exposure and all-cause hospitalizations and certain types of cause-specific hospitalizations in Brazil. This may exacerbate the existing geographical health and socioeconomic inequalities under a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rongbin Xu
- School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, China
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Qi Zhao
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | - Michael J. Abramson
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, China
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Chen S, Xiao Y, Zhou M, Zhou C, Yu M, Huang B, Xu Y, Liu T, Hu J, Xu X, Lin L, Hu R, Hou Z, Li J, Jin D, Qin M, Zhao Q, Gong W, Yin P, Xu Y, Xiao J, Zeng W, Li X, Guo L, Zhang Y, Huang C, Ma W. Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China. Environ Health 2020; 19:98. [PMID: 32933549 PMCID: PMC7491140 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-020-00653-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2020] [Accepted: 09/08/2020] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several studies have investigated the associations between ambient temperature and years of life lost (YLLs), but few focused on the difference of life loss attributable to temperature among different socioeconomic development levels. OBJECTIVES We investigated the disparity in temperature-YLL rate relationships and life loss per death attributable to nonoptimal temperature in regions with various development levels. METHODS Three hundred sixty-four Chinese counties or districts were classified into 92 high-development regions (HDRs) and 272 low-development regions (LDRs) according to socioeconomic factors of each location using K-means clustering approach. We used distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the temperature-YLL rate relationships. We calculated attributable fraction (AF) of YLL and temperature-related average life loss per death to compare mortality burden of temperature between HDRs and LDRs. Stratified analyses were conducted by region, age, sex and cause of death. RESULTS We found that non-optimal temperatures increased YLL rates in both HDRs and LDRs, but all subgroups in LDRs were more vulnerable. The disparity of cold effects between HDRs and LDRs was significant, while the difference in heat effect was insignificant. The overall AF of non-optimal temperature in LDRs [AF = 12.2, 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):11.0-13.5%] was higher than that in HDRs (AF = 8.9, 95% eCI: 8.3-9.5%). Subgroups analyses found that most groups in LDRs had greater AFs than that in HDRs. The average life loss per death due to non-optimal temperature in LDRs (1.91 years, 95% eCI: 1.72-2.10) was also higher than that in HDRs (1.32 years, 95% eCI: 1.23-1.41). Most of AFs and life loss per death were caused by moderate cold in both HDRs and LDRs. CONCLUSIONS Mortality burden caused by temperature was more significant in LDRs than that in HDRs, which means that more attention should be paid to vulnerable populations in LDRs in planning adaptive strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siqi Chen
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Yize Xiao
- Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, 650022 China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 China
| | - Chunliang Zhou
- Department of environment and health, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, 450001 China
| | - Min Yu
- Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051 Zhejiang China
| | - Biao Huang
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, 130062 China
| | - Yanjun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430 China
| | - Tao Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Xiaojun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430 China
| | - Lifeng Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430 China
| | - Ruying Hu
- Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051 Zhejiang China
| | - Zhulin Hou
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, 130062 China
| | - Junhua Li
- Department of environment and health, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, 450001 China
| | - Donghui Jin
- Department of environment and health, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, 450001 China
| | - Mingfang Qin
- Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, 650022 China
| | - Qinglong Zhao
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, 130062 China
| | - Weiwei Gong
- Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051 Zhejiang China
| | - Peng Yin
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 China
| | - Yiqing Xu
- Department of environment and health, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, 450001 China
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Lingchuan Guo
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
| | - Yonghui Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430 China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080 China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430 Guangdong China
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Zheng M, Zhang J, Shi L, Zhang D, Pangali Sharma TP, Prodhan FA. Mapping Heat-Related Risks in Northern Jiangxi Province of China Based on Two Spatial Assessment Frameworks Approaches. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17186584. [PMID: 32927631 PMCID: PMC7559026 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17186584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Revised: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Heat-health risk is a growing concern in many regions of China due to the more frequent occurrence of extremely hot weather. Spatial indexes based on various heat assessment frameworks can be used for the assessment of heat risks. In this study, we adopted two approaches—Crichton’s risk triangle and heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-health risks in the Northern Jiangxi Province of China, by using remote sensing and socio-economic data. The Geographical Information System (GIS) overlay and principal component analysis (PCA) were separately used in two frameworks to integrate parameters. The results show that the most densely populated community in the suburbs, instead of city centers, are exposed to the highest heat risk. A comparison of two heat assessment mapping indicates that the distribution of HVI highlights the vulnerability differences between census tracts. In contrast, the heat risk index of Crichton’s risk triangle has a prominent representation for regions with high risks. The stepwise multiple linear regression zero-order correlation coefficient between HVI and outdoor workers is 0.715, highlighting the vulnerability of this particular group. Spearman’s rho nonparametric correlation and the mean test reveals that heat risk index is strongly correlated with HVI in most of the main urban regions in the study area, with a significantly lower value than the latter. The analysis of variance shows that the distribution of HVI exhibits greater variety across urban regions than that of heat risk index. Our research provides new insight into heat risk assessment for further study of heat health risk in developing countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Minxuan Zheng
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Jiahua Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- Correspondence:
| | - Lamei Shi
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Da Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Til Prasad Pangali Sharma
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Foyez Ahmed Prodhan
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh
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Chen K, Breitner S, Wolf K, Hampel R, Meisinger C, Heier M, von Scheidt W, Kuch B, Peters A, Schneider A. Temporal variations in the triggering of myocardial infarction by air temperature in Augsburg, Germany, 1987-2014. Eur Heart J 2020; 40:1600-1608. [PMID: 30859207 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2018] [Revised: 10/17/2018] [Accepted: 02/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS The association between air temperature and mortality has been shown to vary over time, but evidence of temporal changes in the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) is lacking. We aimed to estimate the temporal variations in the association between short-term exposures to air temperature and MI in the area of Augsburg, Germany. METHODS AND RESULTS Over a 28-years period from 1987 to 2014, a total of 27 310 cases of MI and coronary deaths were recorded. Daily meteorological parameters were measured in the study area. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the risk of MI associated with air temperature. Subgroup analyses were performed to identify subpopulations with changing susceptibility to air temperature. Results showed a non-significant decline in cold-related MI risks. Heat-related MI relative risk significantly increased from 0.93 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-1.12] in 1987-2000 to 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00-1.29) in 2001-14. The same trend was also observed for recurrent and non-ST-segment elevation MI events. This increasing population susceptibility to heat was more evident in patients with diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidaemia. Future studies using multicentre MI registries at different climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic settings are warranted to confirm our findings. CONCLUSION We found evidence of rising population susceptibility to heat-related MI risk from 1987 to 2014, suggesting that exposure to heat should be considered as an environmental trigger of MI, especially under a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Chen
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany.,Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Marchioninistr. 15, Munich, Germany
| | - Kathrin Wolf
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Regina Hampel
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Christa Meisinger
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, UNIKA-T, Neusässer Str. 47, Augsburg, Germany.,Independent Research Group Clinical Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research, Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Margit Heier
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany.,MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry, Central Hospital of Augsburg, Stenglinstr. 2, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Wolfgang von Scheidt
- Department of Internal Medicine I - Cardiology, Central Hospital of Augsburg, Stenglinstr. 2, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Bernhard Kuch
- Department of Internal Medicine I - Cardiology, Central Hospital of Augsburg, Stenglinstr. 2, Augsburg, Germany.,Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Hospital of Nördlingen, Stoffelsberg 4, Nördlingen, Germany
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany.,Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Marchioninistr. 15, Munich, Germany.,Partner-Site Munich, German Research Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Biedersteiner Straße 29, Munich, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
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Kim YO, Lee W, Kim H, Cho Y. Social isolation and vulnerability to heatwave-related mortality in the urban elderly population: A time-series multi-community study in Korea. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 142:105868. [PMID: 32593050 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2020] [Revised: 05/12/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although several studies have reported that social isolation is one of the important health risk factors in the elderly population living in urban areas, its effects on vulnerability to heatwaves have been studied relatively less than climatic and other socio-economic factors. Thus, we investigated the association between social isolation levels and heatwave-related mortality risk in the elderly population in 119 urban administrative districts in Korea, using a time-series multi-city dataset (2008-2017). We used a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, we estimated the heatwave-related mortality risk in the elderly population (age ≥ 65) for each district using a time-series regression with a distributed lag model. Subsequently, in the second stage, we applied meta-regressions to pool the estimates across all the districts and estimate the association between social isolation variables and heatwave-related mortality risk. Our findings showed that higher social gathering and mutual aid levels were associated with lower heatwave-related mortality risk. Further, the lower percentage of single elderly households living in detached houses was also related to higher heatwave-related mortality risk. The associations were generally more evident in males compared to females. Our findings suggest that vulnerability to heatwave-related mortality among the urban, city-dwelling, elderly population may be amplified by higher isolation indicators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong-Ook Kim
- Population Research Lab, Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Youngtae Cho
- Population Research Lab, Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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Heatwave-Related Mortality Risk and the Risk-Based Definition of Heat Wave in South Korea: A Nationwide Time-Series Study for 2011-2017. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17165720. [PMID: 32784700 PMCID: PMC7460278 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Revised: 07/26/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Studies on the pattern of heatwave mortality using nationwide data that include rural areas are limited. This study aimed to assess the risk of heatwave-related mortality and evaluate the health risk-based definition of heatwave. We collected data on daily temperature and mortality from 229 districts in South Korea in 2011–2017. District-specific heatwave-related mortality risks were calculated using a distributed lag model. The estimates were pooled in the total areas and for each urban and rural area using meta-regression. In the total areas, the threshold point of heatwave mortality risk was estimated at the 93rd percentile of temperature, and it was lower in urban areas than in rural areas (92nd percentile vs. 95th percentile). The maximum risk of heatwave-related mortality in the total area was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01–1.22), and it was slightly greater in rural areas than in the urban areas (RR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.99–1.53 vs. RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.20). The results differ by age- and cause-specific deaths. In conclusion, the patterns of heatwave-related mortality risk vary by area and sub-population in Korea. Thus, more target-specific heatwave definitions and action plans should be established according to different areas and populations.
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Wong MS, Ho HC, Tse A. Geospatial context of social and environmental factors associated with health risk during temperature extremes: Review and discussion. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH 2020; 15. [PMID: 32575974 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2020.814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2019] [Accepted: 02/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
This study reviews forty-six publications between 2008 and 2017 dealing with socio-environmental impacts on adverse health effects of temperature extremes, in a geospatial context. The review showed that most studies focus on extremely hot weather but lack analysis of how spatial heterogeneity across a region can influence cold mortality/morbidity. There are limitations regarding the use of temperature datasets for spatial analyses. Only a few studies have applied air temperature datasets with high spatial resolution to health studies, but none of these studies have used anthropogenic heat as a factor for analysis of health risk. In addition, the elderly is generally recognized as a vulnerable group in most studies, but the interaction between old age and temperature risk varies by location. Other socio-demographic factors such as low income, low education and accessibility to community shelters may also need to be considered in the future. There are only a few studies which investigate the interaction between temperature and air pollution in a geospatial context, despite the fact that this is a known interaction that can influence health risk under extreme weather. In conclusions, although investigation of temperature effects on health risk is already at the "mature stage", studies of socio-environmental influences on human health under extreme weather in a geospatial context is still being investigated. A comprehensive assessment is required to analyse how the spatial aspects of the geophysical and social environments can influence human health under extreme weather, in order to develop a better community plan and health protocols for disaster preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Man Sing Wong
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
| | - Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong.
| | - Agnes Tse
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
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Cheng J, Bambrick H, Tong S, Su H, Xu Z, Hu W. Winter temperature and myocardial infarction in Brisbane, Australia: Spatial and temporal analyses. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 715:136860. [PMID: 32040995 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2019] [Revised: 01/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/20/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Myocardial infarction (MI) incidence often peaks in winter, but it remains unclear how winter temperature affects MI temporally and spatially. We examined the short-term effects of winter temperature on the risk of MI and explored spatial associations of winter MI hospitalizations with temperature and socioeconomic status (area-based index) in Brisbane, Australia. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to fit the association at the city level between population-weighted daily mean temperature and daily MI hospitalizations during 11 winters of 2005-2015. For each winter, a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted to examine the associations at postal code level of MI hospitalisations with temperature and socioeconomic status measured as the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage (IRSAD). Area-specific winter temperature was categorised into three levels: cold (<25th percentile of average winter temperature across postal areas), mild (25th-75th percentile) and warm (>75th percentile). This study included 4978 MI hospitalizations. At the city level, each 1 °C drop in temperature below a threshold of 15.6 °C was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.016 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.008-1.024) for MI hospitalizations on the same day. Low temperature had a much delayed and transient effect on women but an immediate and longer-lasting effect on men. Winter MI incidence rate varied spatially in Brisbane, with a higher incidence rate in warmer areas (RR for mild areas: 1.214, 95%CI: 1.116-1.320; RR for warm areas: 1.251, 95%CI: 1.127-1.389; cold areas as the reference) and in areas with lower socioeconomic levels (RR: 0.900, 95%CI: 0.886-0.914 for each decile increase in IRSAD). This study provides compelling evidence that short-term winter temperature drops were associated with an elevated risk of MI in the subtropical region with a mild winter. Particular attention also needs to be paid to people living in relatively warm and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities in winter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia.
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Hu D, Meng Q, Zhang L, Zhang Y. Spatial quantitative analysis of the potential driving factors of land surface temperature in different "Centers" of polycentric cities: A case study in Tianjin, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 706:135244. [PMID: 31862590 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2019] [Revised: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 10/26/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Revealing the dominant driving factors of land surface temperature (LST) plays an important role in mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Numerous international metropolises are developing polycentric forms under the process of suburbanization in conjunction with rapid urbanization, generating new UHI spatial patterns in internal urban areas. To comprehensively understand the effects of multi-factors on the thermal environment, our study examined a typical polycentric city, Tianjin. According to the concept of polycentrism, this study focused on three types of city "centers": major city core, new district core and industrial park. Eleven potential driving factors of LST were explored from four layers, and the geo-detector model was applied to rank the explanatory degree of these factors on LST. Three different city centers of the polycentric city showed varied UHI spatial pattern characteristics, and their response to the effect of natural factors and social factors on LST were quite diverse. Heat island areas were distributed homogeneously in the major city core; the UHI pattern on the east-west axis was unbalanced in the new district core due to the unsaturated urban space and dynamic planning policies; in industrial park, production areas were segregated by green belts with clear boundaries. For the whole city and the major city core, the imperviousness factor had the highest explanatory rate for LST, followed by the greenness factor. In contrast to the results of previous studies, the wetness factors had a greater impact on LST in the new district core and industrial park, second only to the greenness factor. Furthermore, selected factors exhibited bilinear or nonlinear enhanced relationships in their interactions. The driving laws of LST in different city centers were summarized with an explorative case study, aimed at providing theoretical basis and practical guidance for optimizing urban thermal environment planning, especially for highly urbanized polycentric cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Die Hu
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Sanya Institute of Remote Sensing, Sanya 572029, China
| | - Qingyan Meng
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; Sanya Institute of Remote Sensing, Sanya 572029, China.
| | - Linlin Zhang
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Sanya Institute of Remote Sensing, Sanya 572029, China
| | - Ying Zhang
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Sanya Institute of Remote Sensing, Sanya 572029, China
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Is Sensible Heat Flux Useful for the Assessment of Thermal Vulnerability in Seoul (Korea)? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17030963. [PMID: 32033178 PMCID: PMC7037179 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17030963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2020] [Revised: 01/23/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Climate change has led to increases in global temperatures, raising concerns regarding the threat of lethal heat waves and deterioration of the thermal environment. In the present study, we adopted two methods for spatial modelling of the thermal environment based on sensible heat and temperature. A vulnerability map reflecting daytime temperature was derived to plot thermal vulnerability based on sensible heat and climate change exposure factors. The correlation (0.73) between spatial distribution of sensible heat vulnerability and mortality rate was significantly greater than that (0.30) between the spatial distribution of temperature vulnerability and mortality rate. These findings indicate that deriving thermally vulnerable areas based on sensible heat are more objective than thermally vulnerable areas based on existing temperatures. Our findings support the notion that the distribution of sensible heat vulnerability at the community level is useful for evaluating the thermal environment in specific neighbourhoods. Thus, our results may aid in establishing spatial planning standards to improve environmental sustainability in a metropolitan community.
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Krummenauer L, Prahl BF, Costa L, Holsten A, Walther C, Kropp JP. Global drivers of minimum mortality temperatures in cities. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 695:133560. [PMID: 31422334 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/22/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Human mortality shows a pronounced temperature dependence. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) as a characteristic point of the temperature-mortality relationship is influenced by many factors. As MMT estimates are based on case studies, they are sporadic, limited to data-rich regions, and their drivers have not yet been clearly identified across case studies. This impedes the elaboration of spatially comprehensive impact studies on heat-related mortality and hampers the temporal transfer required to assess climate change impacts. Using 400 MMTs from cities, we systematically establish a generalised model that is able to estimate MMTs (in daily apparent temperature) for cities, based on a set of climatic, topographic and socio-economic drivers. A sigmoid model prevailed against alternative model setups due to having the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and the smallest RMSE. We find the long-term climate, the elevation, and the socio-economy to be relevant drivers of our MMT sample within the non-linear parametric regression model. A first model application estimated MMTs for 599 European cities (>100 000 inhabitants) and reveals a pronounced decrease in MMTs (27.8-16 °C) from southern to northern cities. Disruptions of this pattern across regions of similar mean temperatures can be explained by socio-economic standards as noted for central eastern Europe. Our alternative method allows to approximate MMTs independently from the availability of daily mortality records. For the first time, a quantification of climatic and non-climatic MMT drivers has been achieved, which allows to consider changes in socio-economic conditions and climate. This work contributes to the comparability among MMTs beyond location-specific and regional limits and, hence, towards a spatially comprehensive impact assessment for heat-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Boris F Prahl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Carbon Delta, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Luís Costa
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Anne Holsten
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Carsten Walther
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jürgen P Kropp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; University of Potsdam, Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany
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Xu X, Chen Z, Huo X, Wang C, Li N, Meng X, Wang Q, Liu Q, Bi P, Li J. The effects of temperature on human mortality in a Chinese city: burden of disease calculation, attributable risk exploration, and vulnerability identification. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1319-1329. [PMID: 31240387 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01746-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2019] [Revised: 06/06/2019] [Accepted: 06/06/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Few studies have examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature to mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL), especially in developing countries. This study aims to explore the short-term effect of the cold and hot temperatures on the cause-specific YLL and mortality, discover the attributable contributions from the temperature variations, and identify the vulnerable populations in Weifang, China. Daily registered death information and meteorological data over the period 2010-2016 were obtained in Weifang, a northern Chinese city. Generalized additive Poisson and Gaussian regression models were used to assess the impacts of temperatures on both mortality and YLL, explore the AF of the temperature variations on mortality, after adjusting for other covariates. Both hot and cold temperatures have had significant negative impacts on cause-specific mortality counts and YLL, with heat presented an acute and short effect and the cold temperatures had delayed effects and lasted for several days. In terms of the attributable fraction calculations, the contributions from cold effects was higher than that of hot effects on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths (YLL 10.88 vs. 1.23%, 19.58 vs. 1.71%, and 14.47 vs. 3.05%; mortality 13.97 vs. 1.65%, 19.20 vs. 1.59%, and 14.89 vs. 3.09%), respectively. The elderly and women and people with low education level were the most vulnerable. The findings will provide important scientific evidences and policy implications for developing adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse effect of cold and hot exposure in Weifang, in terms of resource allocation, healthcare workforce capacity building, and community health education, especially for the vulnerable groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Xu
- Affiliated Hospital of Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Zuosen Chen
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiyuan Huo
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Chunping Wang
- School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Ning Li
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xianfeng Meng
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiang Wang
- School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, SA, Australia
| | - Jing Li
- School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
- "Health Shandong" Major Social Risk Prediction and Governance Collaborative Innovation Center, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
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Wang Y, Wang A, Zhai J, Tao H, Jiang T, Su B, Yang J, Wang G, Liu Q, Gao C, Kundzewicz ZW, Zhan M, Feng Z, Fischer T. Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming. Nat Commun 2019; 10:3376. [PMID: 31388009 PMCID: PMC6684802 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2017] [Accepted: 07/03/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually. Heatwaves are expected to increase under climate change, and so are the associated deaths. Here the authors determine the regional high temperature thresholds for 27 metropolises in China and analyze the changes to heat-related mortality, showing that the additional global-warming temperature increase of 0.5°C, from 1.5°C to 2.0°C, will lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths, annually.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanjun Wang
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Anqian Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Jianqing Zhai
- National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Hui Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
| | - Tong Jiang
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
| | - Buda Su
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 511443, China
| | - Guojie Wang
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Chao Gao
- Faculty of Architectural, Civil Engineering and Environment, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 31511, China
| | - Zbigniew W Kundzewicz
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.,Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan, Poland
| | | | - Zhiqiang Feng
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Thomas Fischer
- Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, 72070, Germany.
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49
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Response of Global Air Pollutant Emissions to Climate Change and Its Potential Effects on Human Life Expectancy Loss. SUSTAINABILITY 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/su11133670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Geographical environment and climate change are basic factors for spatial fluctuations in the global distribution of air pollutants. Against the background of global climate change, further investigation is needed on how meteorological characteristics and complex geographical environment variations can drive spatial air pollution variations. This study analyzed the response of air pollutant emissions to climate change and the potential effects of air pollutant emissions on human health by integrating the air pollutant emission simulation model (GAINS) with 3 versions and CMIP5. The mechanism by which meteorological characteristics and geographical matrices can drive air pollution based on monitoring data at the site-scale was also examined. We found the total global emission of major air pollutants increased 1.32 times during 1970–2010. Air pollutant emissions will increase 2.89% and 4.11% in China and developed countries when the scenario of only maximum technically feasible reductions is performed (V4a) during 2020–2050. However, it will decrease 19.33% and 6.78% respectively by taking the V5a climate scenario into consideration, and precipitation variation will contribute more to such change, especially in China. Locally, the air circulation mode that is dominated by local geographical matrices and meteorological characteristics jointly affect the dilution and diffusion of air pollutants. Therefore, natural conditions, such as climate changes, meteorological characteristics and topography, play an important role in spatial air pollutant emissions and fluctuations, and must be given more attention in the processes of air pollution control policy making.
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50
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Huang K, Yang X, Liang F, Liu F, Li J, Xiao Q, Chen J, Liu X, Cao J, Shen C, Yu L, Lu F, Wu X, Zhao L, Wu X, Li Y, Hu D, Huang J, Liu Y, Lu X, Gu D. Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Hypertension Incidence in China. Hypertension 2019; 73:1195-1201. [PMID: 31067193 PMCID: PMC6656583 DOI: 10.1161/hypertensionaha.119.12666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
The risk of incident hypertension associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was still unclear by studies conducted in North America and Europe, and this relationship has rarely been quantified at higher ambient concentrations typically found in developing countries. We aimed to investigate the association between PM2.5 and incident hypertension using the large-scale prospective cohorts in China. We included 59 456 participants without hypertension aged ≥18 years from the China-PAR (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China) project. Data on ambient PM2.5 at participants' residential address were obtained during 2004 to 2015 using a satellite-based spatial-temporal model. Hazard ratios and 95% CIs were calculated for incident hypertension using stratified Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment of potential confounders. The findings indicated that average PM2.5 concentration from 2004 to 2015 at study participants' address was 77.7 μg/m3. During the follow-up of 364 947 person-years, we identified 13 981 incident hypertension cases. Compared with the lowest quartile exposure of PM2.5, participants in the highest quartile had an increased risk of incident hypertension with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.77 (1.56-2.00). Each 10 μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 concentration could increase 11% risk of hypertension (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17). This cohort study provided the first evidence from China that long-term exposure to PM2.5 was independently associated with incident hypertension at relatively high ambient concentrations. Stringent strategies on PM2.5 pollution control are warranted to improve the air quality and contribute to the reduction of disease burden of hypertension in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keyong Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Xueli Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Fengchao Liang
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Fangchao Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Jianxin Li
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Qingyang Xiao
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of
Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
| | - Jichun Chen
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Xiaoqing Liu
- Division of Epidemiology, Guangdong Provincial
People’s Hospital and Cardiovascular Institute, Guangzhou 510080,
China
| | - Jie Cao
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Chong Shen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of
Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
| | - Ling Yu
- Department of Cardiology, Fujian Provincial People’s
Hospital, Fuzhou 350014, China
| | - Fanghong Lu
- Cardio-Cerebrovascular Control and Research Center,
Institute of Basic Medicine, Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250062,
China
| | - Xianping Wu
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu
610041, China
| | - Liancheng Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Xigui Wu
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Dongsheng Hu
- Department of Prevention Medicine, Shenzhen University
School of Medicine, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Jianfeng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Yang Liu
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of
Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
| | - Xiangfeng Lu
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
| | - Dongfeng Gu
- Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of
Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular
Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,
Beijing 100037, China
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