Risk factors for mortality from acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children under five years of age in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Long-term trends and comparison of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

Background

This study aimed to describe the temporal trends in the age and sex burdens of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 and to analyze their epidemiological characteristics to formulate corresponding strategies to control LRIs.

Methods

This study utilized open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021 to assess the burden of disease based on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of LRIs in China and globally. Moreover, a comprehensive comparative analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of LRIs in China and globally was conducted via the Joinpoint regression model, age-period-cohort model (APC model), and stratified analysis of the study method from multiple dimensions, such as age, sex, and period. Finally, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden in LRIs over the next 15 years.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates per 100,000 people decreased from 5,481.13 (95% CI: 5,149.05, 5,836.35) to 2,853.81 (95% CI: 2,663.94, 3,067.55), from 60.65 (95% CI. 52.96, 66.66) to 14.03 (95% CI: 11.68, 17) and from 3,128.39 (95% CI: 2,724.11, 3,579.57) to 347.67 (95% CI: 301.28, 402.94). The global age-standardized incidence, deaths, and DALY rates per 100,000 people, on the other hand, decreased from 6,373.17 (95% CI: 5,993.51, 6,746.04) to 4,283.61 (95% CI: 4,057.03, 4,524.89) and from 61.81 (95% CI: 56.66, 66.74) to 28.67 (95% CI: 25.92, 31.07) and from 3,472.9 (95% CI: 3,090.71, 3,872.11) to 1,168.8 (95% CI: 1,016.96, 1,336.95). The decline in the aforementioned indicators is greater in the female population than in the male population, and the decrease in China is more pronounced than the global trend. In China, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of LRIs showed an annual average percentage change (AAPC) of -2.12 (95% CI: -2.20, -2.03) and -4.77 (95% CI: -5.14, -4.39), respectively. Globally, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for LRIs decreased by -1.28 (95% CI: -1.37, -1.18) and -2.47 (95% CI: -2.61, -2.32). By 2036, the incidence of lower respiratory infections (LRI) among men and women in China is projected to decrease by 36.55 and 46.87%, respectively, while the mortality rates are expected to decline to 12.67% for men and increase by 71.85% for women. In comparison, the global decline in LRI incidence is lower than that observed in China, yet the reduction in mortality rates is greater globally than in China.

Conclusions

Age-standardized incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased more in China than at the global level between 1990 and 2021. Compared with the previous period, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant decrease in the disease burden of LRIs. As the population continues to age, the disease burden of LRIs in the old adult population will become a major new public health challenge.

Trends in mortality from lower respiratory infections in children under 14 years, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain a leading cause of mortality among children, yet previous studies have primarily focused on children under 5 years of age as a whole, with limited research on more specific age groups. This study aimed to analyze the trends in mortality associated with lower respiratory infections (LRIs) among children under 14 years of age from 1990 to 2019, with particular attention to regional and age-specific disparities.

Methods

We collected annual lower respiratory infection (LRI) deaths and mortality rates for six age groups of children under 14 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from GBD 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated by fitting a linear regression model to quantify temporal trends. Additionally, EAPCs for 12 risk factors by Socio-Demographic Index（SDI） and age group were calculated to assess their impact on changes in LRI mortality.

Results

Globally, LRI-related deaths among children under 14 years decreased by 68.81 %, from 2,290,115 (95 % UI 2,001,328 to 2,687,160) in 1990 to 714,315 (95 % UI 588,975 to 875,975) in 2019. The most substantial reduction was observed in East Asia, with an EAPC of -9.68 (95 % CI -9.98 to -9.38). The highest mortality occurred in the 28-364 days age group, with significant risk factors including child wasting (26.81 %), household air pollution from solid fuels (16.14 %), and low birth weight (10.15 %). In the low and lower-middle SDI regions, there was an upward trend in mortality due to ambient particulate pollution among children aged 10-14 years.

Conclusion

Despite a significant global decline in LRI mortality among children under 14 years from 1990 to 2019, regional disparities persist. Addressing these inequalities and considering the developmental stages of children are crucial for further reducing child mortality rates.

Unveiling the hidden power of noncoding RNAs in pediatric respiratory diseases

Respiratory diseases in children are common health problems that significantly impact their quality of life and health status, and this has its own unique challenges compared to adults. A growing body of research has focused on epigenetic mechanisms that relate with the development of various diseases, such as pediatric respiratory diseases. Noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs), especially long noncoding RNAs, microRNA, and circular RNA, are reported to play a regulatory role in pediatric respiratory diseases whose mutations or aberrant expressions are strongly associated with the development of these diseases. In this review, we mainly discussed the functions of these three ncRNAs in pediatric respiratory diseases.

An analysis of cause-specific under-5 mortality in Bangladesh using the demographic and health survey 2011 and 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

As the Sustainable Development Goal 3.2.1 deadline (2030) approaches, rapidly reducing under-5 mortality (U5M) gains more prominence. However, initiatives or interventions that aided Bangladesh in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4 showed varied effectiveness in reducing certain cause-specific U5M. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the predictors of the key cause-specific mortalities.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted using the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 and 2017-18 data. Cause-specific U5M was examined using multilevel multinomial mixed-effects analyses, and overall/all-cause U5M was examined using multilevel mixed-effects analyses. The respective estimates were compared.

RESULTS

The cause-specific analysis revealed that pneumonia and prematurity-related U5M were significantly associated with antenatal care and postnatal care, respectively. However, analysis of overall/all-cause U5M did not reveal any significant association with health services. Twins or multiples had a greater risk of mortality from preterm-related conditions (adjusted Relative Risk Ratio (aRRR): 38.01, 95% CI: 19.08-75.7, p < .001), birth asphyxia (aRRR: 6.52, 95% CI: 2.51-16.91, p < .001), and possible serious infections (aRRR: 11.12, 95% CI: 4.52-27.36, p < .001) than singletons. Children born to mothers 18 years or younger also exhibited a greater risk of mortality from these three causes than children born to older mothers. This study also revealed an increase in the predicted risk of prematurity-related mortality in the 2017-18 survey among children born to mothers 18 years or younger, children born to mothers without any formal education, twins or multiples and children who did not receive postnatal care.

CONCLUSIONS

This research provides valuable insights into accelerating U5M reduction; a higher risk of preterm-related death among twins underscores the importance of careful monitoring of mothers pregnant with twins or multiples through the continuum of care; elevated risk of death among children who did not receive postnatal care, or whose mothers did not receive antenatal care stresses the need to strengthen the coverage and quality of maternal and neonatal health care; furthermore, higher risks of preterm-related deaths among the children of mothers with low formal education or children born to mothers 18 years or younger highlight the importance of more comprehensive initiatives to promote maternal education and prevent adolescent pregnancy.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

A Scoring System to Predict Severe Acute Lower Respiratory Infection in Children Caused by Respiratory Syncytial Virus

There were several factors associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) severe acute lower respiratory infection (RSV-sALRI) in infants and young children. It is vital to develop a convenient scoring system to predict RSV-sALRI in children. Pediatric patients with RSV-ALRI from January 2009 to December 2021 were recruited retrospectively. Two-third of them were randomly grouped into the development set and one-third to the validation set. In the development set, risk factors for RSV-sALRI were transferred into the logistic regression analysis, then their receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were built to obtain the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and regression coefficients for each predictor were converted to points. Finally, the value of the scoring system was evaluated in the validation set. A total of 1 066 children with RSV-ALRI were recruited, including 710 in the development set and 356 in the validation set. By logistic regression analysis, six factors (younger than 2 years, gestational age <37 weeks, have siblings, birth weight ≤2500 g, artificial/mix feeding, CHD) showed statistical difference and then were scored with points according to the coefficient value (OR) in the development set. In the validation set, the sensitivity of the scoring system was 70.25%, the specificity 85.53%, the positive predictive value 71.43%, the negative predictive value 84.81%, and coincidence rate 0.80. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed the distribution of AUC 0.765 (SE = 0.027; 95% CI = 0.713-0.818; p < 0.001). A simplified scoring system was developed in the study with high prediction value for RSV-sALRI in children.

Dietary patterns and micronutrients in respiratory infections including COVID-19: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is a pandemic caused by nCoV-2019, a new beta-coronavirus from Wuhan, China, that mainly affects the respiratory system and can be modulated by nutrition.

METHODS

This review aims to summarize the current literature on the association between dietary intake and serum levels of micronutrients, malnutrition, and dietary patterns and respiratory infections, including flu, pneumonia, and acute respiratory syndrome, with a focus on COVID-19. We searched for relevant articles in various databases and selected those that met our inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Some studies suggest that dietary patterns, malnutrition, and certain nutrients such as vitamins D, E, A, iron, zinc, selenium, magnesium, omega-3 fatty acids, and fiber may have a significant role in preventing respiratory diseases, alleviating symptoms, and lowering mortality rates. However, the evidence is not consistent and conclusive, and more research is needed to clarify the mechanisms and the optimal doses of these dietary components. The impact of omega-3 and fiber on respiratory diseases has been mainly studied in children and adults, respectively, and few studies have examined the effect of dietary components on COVID-19 prevention, with a greater focus on vitamin D.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the potential of nutrition as a modifiable factor in the prevention and management of respiratory infections and suggests some directions for future research. However, it also acknowledges the limitations of the existing literature, such as the heterogeneity of the study designs, populations, interventions, and outcomes, and the difficulty of isolating the effects of single nutrients from the complex interactions of the whole diet.

Characteristics of children readmitted with severe pneumonia in Kenyan hospitals

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. Hospital re-admission may signify missed opportunities for care or undiagnosed comorbidities.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including children aged ≥ 2 months-14 years hospitalised with severe pneumonia between 2013 and 2021 in a network of 20 primary referral hospitals in Kenya. Severe pneumonia was defined using the 2013 World Health Organization criteria, and re-admission was based on clinical documentation from individual patient case notes. We estimated the prevalence of re-admission, described clinical management practices, and modelled risk factors for re-admission and inpatient mortality.

RESULTS

Among 20,603 children diagnosed with severe pneumonia, 2,274 (11.0%, 95% CI 10.6-11.5) were readmitted. Re-admission was independently associated with age (12-59 months vs. 2-11 months: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.70, 1.54-1.87; >5 years vs. 2-11 months: aOR 1.85, 1.55-2.22), malnutrition (weight-for-age-z-score (WAZ) <-3SD vs. WAZ> -2SD: aOR 2.05, 1.84-2.29); WAZ - 2 to -3 SD vs. WAZ> -2SD: aOR 1.37, 1.20-1.57), wheeze (aOR 1.17, 1.03-1.33) and presence of a concurrent neurological disorder (aOR 4.42, 1.70-11.48). Chest radiography was ordered more frequently among those readmitted (540/2,274 [23.7%] vs. 3,102/18,329 [16.9%], p < 0.001). Readmitted patients more frequently received second-line antibiotics (808/2,256 [35.8%] vs. 5,538/18,173 [30.5%], p < 0.001), TB medication (69/2,256 [3.1%] vs. 298/18,173 [1.6%], p < 0.001), salbutamol (530/2,256 [23.5%] vs. 3,707/18,173 [20.4%], p = 0.003), and prednisolone (157/2,256 [7.0%] vs. 764/18,173 [4.2%], p < 0.001). Inpatient mortality was 2,354/18,329 (12.8%) among children admitted with a first episode of severe pneumonia and 269/2,274 (11.8%) among those who were readmitted (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.82-1.07). Age (12-59 months vs. 2-11 months: aHR 0.62, 0.57-0.67), male sex (aHR 0.81, 0.75-0.88), malnutrition (WAZ <-3SD vs. WAZ >-2SD: aHR 1.87, 1.71-2.05); WAZ - 2 to -3 SD vs. WAZ >-2SD: aHR 1.46, 1.31-1.63), complete vaccination (aHR 0.74, 0.60-0.91), wheeze (aHR 0.87, 0.78-0.98) and anaemia (aHR 2.14, 1.89-2.43) were independently associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Children readmitted with severe pneumonia account for a substantial proportion of pneumonia hospitalisations and deaths. Further research is required to develop evidence-based approaches to screening, case management, and follow-up of children with severe pneumonia, prioritising those with underlying risk factors for readmission and mortality.

Paediatric pulmonary disease-are we diagnosing it right?

Background

It has been reported that differential diagnosis of bacterial or viral pneumonia and tuberculosis (TB) in infants and young children is complex. This could be due to the difficulty in microbiological confirmation in this age group. In this study, we aimed to assess the utility of a real-time multiplex PCR for diagnosis of respiratory pathogens in children with pulmonary TB.

Methods

A total of 185 respiratory samples [bronchoalveolar lavage (15), gastric aspirates (98), induced sputum (21), and sputum (51)] from children aged 3-12 years, attending tertiary care hospitals, Chennai, India, were included in the study. The samples were processed by N acetyl L cysteine (NALC) NAOH treatment and subjected to microbiological investigations for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) diagnosis that involved smear microscopy, Xpert® MTB/RIF testing, and liquid culture. In addition, DNA extraction from the processed sputum was carried out and was subjected to a multiplex real-time PCR comprising a panel of bacterial and fungal pathogens.

Results

Out of the 185 samples tested, a total of 20 samples were positive for MTB by either one or more identification methods (smear, culture, and GeneXpert). Out of these 20 MTB-positive samples, 15 were positive for one or more bacterial or fungal pathogens, with different cycle threshold values. Among patients with negative MTB test results (n = 165), 145 (87%) tested positive for one or more than one bacterial or fungal pathogens.

Conclusion

The results suggest that tuberculosis could coexist with other respiratory pathogens causing pneumonia. However, a large-scale prospective study from different geographical settings that uses such simultaneous detection methods for diagnosis of childhood tuberculosis and pneumonia will help in assessing the utility of these tests in rapid diagnosis of respiratory infections.

Global prevalence, mortality, and main characteristics of HIV-associated pneumocystosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The epidemiology of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-associated pneumocystosis (HAP) is poorly described on a worldwide scale. We searched related databases between January 2000 and December 2022 for studies reporting HAP. Meta-analysis was performed using StatsDirect (version 2.7.9) and STATA (version 17) according to the random-effects model for DerSimonian and Laird method and metan and metaprop commands, respectively. Twenty-nine studies with 38554 HIV-positive, 79893 HIV-negative, and 4044 HAP populations were included. The pooled prevalence of HAP was 35.4% (95% CI 23.8 to 47.9). In contrast, the pooled prevalence of PCP among HIV-negative patients was 10.16% (95% CI 2 to 25.3). HIV-positive patients are almost 12 times more susceptible to PCP than the HIV-negative population (OR: 11.710; 95% CI: 5.420 to 25.297). The mortality among HAP patients was 52% higher than non-PCP patients (OR 1.522; 95% CI 0.959 to 2.416). HIV-positive men had a 7% higher chance rate for PCP than women (OR 1.073; 95% CI 0.674 to 1.706). Prophylactic (OR: 6.191; 95% CI: 0.945 to 40.545) and antiretroviral therapy (OR 3.356; 95% CI 0.785 to 14.349) were used in HAP patients six and three times more than HIV-positive PCP-negatives, respectively. The control and management strategies should revise and updated by health policy-makers on a worldwide scale. Finally, for better management and understanding of the epidemiology and characteristics of this coinfection, designing further studies is recommended.

Mortality among non-severely under nourished children with pneumonia globally: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Pneumonia remains the commonest cause of ill health and mortality among children worldwide. Severe undernutrition increases the mortality risk among children with pneumonia. While children with pneumonia are at increased risk of developing malnutrition, the impact of pneumonia on mortality and nutritional status of non-severely undernourished children is not well described. The impact of nutritional supplementation on mortality and nutritional status in this population is not well understood. This review will collate available evidence on the all-cause mortality and anthropometric indices outcomes following pneumonia, as well as the impact of nutritional supplementation on mortality and anthropometry among non-severely malnourished children with pneumonia.

Methods

The review will be done using a priori criteria developed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Data will be obtained from data bases, grey literature, and bibliographies. An experienced librarian will conduct article search in PUBMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google scholar, and Scopus. Retrieved articles will be entered in Endnote ver 9.0, duplicates removed, and transferred to Epi-reviewer for screening and data abstraction. Risk of bias in the included articles will be assessed using standard criteria. Heterogeneity will be assessed using I 2-statistic and sub-group analysis will be done. Data will be analysed using both narrative and quantitative synthesis. Quantitative synthesis will be done using DeSimonian and Laird Random-effects model in STATA ver 15.0.

Conclusions

The results will provide baseline information about the mortality and anthropometric outcomes of pneumonia among non-severely malnourished children as well as the potential effect of nutritional supplementation on these outcomes. This will provide a basis to explore the potential for nutritional supplementation improving clinical outcomes like mortality and occurrence of severe acute malnutrition among children with severe pneumonia worldwide.

Registration

The review has been registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021257272; 15 July 2021).

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Parents in the Use of Antibiotics: A Case Study in a Mexican Indigenous Community

The rise and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria have become a global health problem. At the community level, bacterial resistance has been linked to antibiotic misuse practices. These practices are related to social factors such as education level, poverty, ethnicity, and use of traditional medicine. Through a survey, this study aims to analyse the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of antimicrobial use, in an indigenous community in the south of Oaxaca, Mexico. It was observed that the population had a low socioeconomic profile, poor access to healthcare services, low academic level, little knowledge of antibiotics, the use of traditional medicine, and proper attitudes and practices regarding antibiotics use. Therefore, social factors are related to bacterial resistance only if they make the population prone to the use of antimicrobials. Lack of medical access and cultural factors drives this population to use ancestral alternatives such traditional medicine to treat conditions that in other contexts could be treated with antibiotics. This is an example of how the population can reduce the consumption of antimicrobials in infections if they have a reliable alternative that improves their symptoms.

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

Background

The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.

Methods

We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Results

We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation.

Conclusions

A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.

Implication of the 2014 World Health Organization Integrated Management of Childhood Illness Pneumonia Guidelines with and without pulse oximetry use in Malawi: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Under-5 pneumonia mortality remains high in low-income countries. In 2014 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised that children with chest indrawing pneumonia, but without danger signs or peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO 2) < 90% be treated in the community, rather than hospitalized. In Malawi there is limited pulse oximetry availability.

Methods

Secondary analysis of 13,413 under-5 pneumonia cases in Malawi. Pneumonia associated case fatality ratios (CFR) were calculated by disease severity under the assumptions of the 2005 and 2014 WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines, with and without pulse oximetry. We investigated if pulse oximetry readings were missing not at random (MNAR).

Results

The CFR of patients classified as having non-severe pneumonia per the 2014 IMCI guidelines doubled under the assumption that pulse oximetry was not available (1.5% without pulse oximetry vs 0.7% with pulse oximetry, P<0.001). When 2014 IMCI guidelines were applied with pulse oximetry and a SpO 2 < 90% as the threshold for referral and/or admission, the number of cases meeting hospitalization criteria decreased by 70.3%. Unrecorded pulse oximetry readings were MNAR with an adjusted odds for mortality of 4.9 (3.8, 6.3), similar to that of a SpO 2 < 90%. Although fewer girls were hospitalized, female sex was an independent mortality risk factor.

Conclusions

In Malawi, implementation of the 2014 WHO IMCI pneumonia guidelines, without pulse oximetry, will miss high risk cases. Alternatively, implementation of pulse oximetry may result in a large reduction in hospitalization rates without significantly increasing non-severe pneumonia associated CFR if the inability to obtain a pulse oximetry reading is considered a WHO danger sign.

Preterm birth and detection of common respiratory pathogens among pediatric pneumonia

Pneumonia complicated by preterm birth is related to adverse clinical sequelae from the neonatal period to childhood. Children with pneumonia during 2009-2021 were enrolled at the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. Altogether 20 respiratory pathogens were detected and compared. Among 8,206 children, 779 were in the preterm group with 246 of early-preterm and 533 of late preterm. The positive rates for all viral pathogens were comparable between the preterm group and the full-term group. For bacterial pathogens, higher positive rates for Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae were observed in the preterm group. Severe pneumonia developed in 16.52% of all, which was higher in the preterm group than in the full-term group. A significantly higher rate of severe pneumonia was observed in the early-preterm group compared to the late-preterm group. Preterm birth has an impact on the detection of bacterial pathogens in children and is a risk factor for severe pneumonia.

Short-term effects of air pollution on hospitalization for acute lower respiratory infections in children: a time-series analysis study from Lanzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Short-term exposure to air pollution is associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children. We investigated the relationship between hospitalization for ALRI in children and air pollutant concentrations from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2020 in Lanzhou City.

METHODS

We collected data on air pollutant concentrations and children's hospitalization data during the study period. A time series regression analysis was used to assess the short-term effects of air pollutants on ALRI in children, and subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 51,206 children with ALRI were studied, including 40,126 cases of pneumonia and 11,080 cases of bronchiolitis. The results of the study revealed that PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 were significantly associated with hospitalization for ALRI in children aged 0-14 years. For each 10 µg/m3 increase in air pollutant concentration in lag0-7, the relative risk of ALRI hospitalization in children due to PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 increased by 1.089 (95%CI:1.075, 1.103), 1.018 (95%CI:1.014, 1.021), 1.186 (95%CI:1.154. 1.219) and 1.149 (95%CI:1.130, 1.168), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 short-term exposures were positively associated with ALRI, pneumonia and bronchiolitis hospitalizations in Lanzhou, China. Local governments should make efforts to improve urban ambient air quality conditions to reduce hospitalization rates for childhood respiratory diseases.

Succession and determinants of the early life nasopharyngeal microbiota in a South African birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Bacteria colonizing the nasopharynx play a key role as gatekeepers of respiratory health. Yet, dynamics of early life nasopharyngeal (NP) bacterial profiles remain understudied in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where children have a high prevalence of risk factors for lower respiratory tract infection. We investigated longitudinal changes in NP bacterial profiles, and associated exposures, among healthy infants from low-income households in South Africa.

METHODS

We used short fragment (V4 region) 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to characterize NP bacterial profiles from 103 infants in a South African birth cohort, at monthly intervals from birth through the first 12 months of life and six monthly thereafter until 30 months.

RESULTS

Corynebacterium and Staphylococcus were dominant colonizers at 1 month of life; however, these were rapidly replaced by Moraxella- or Haemophilus-dominated profiles by 4 months. This succession was almost universal and largely independent of a broad range of exposures. Warm weather (summer), lower gestational age, maternal smoking, no day-care attendance, antibiotic exposure, or low height-for-age z score at 12 months were associated with higher alpha and beta diversity. Summer was also associated with higher relative abundances of Staphylococcus, Streptococcus, Neisseria, or anaerobic gram-negative bacteria, whilst spring and winter were associated with higher relative abundances of Haemophilus or Corynebacterium, respectively. Maternal smoking was associated with higher relative abundances of Porphyromonas. Antibiotic therapy (or isoniazid prophylaxis for tuberculosis) was associated with higher relative abundance of anerobic taxa (Porphyromonas, Fusobacterium, and Prevotella) and with lower relative abundances of health associated-taxa Corynebacterium and Dolosigranulum. HIV-exposure was associated with higher relative abundances of Klebsiella or Veillonella and lower relative abundances of an unclassified genus within the family Lachnospiraceae.

CONCLUSIONS

In this intensively sampled cohort, there was rapid and predictable replacement of early profiles dominated by health-associated Corynebacterium and Dolosigranulum with those dominated by Moraxella and Haemophilus, independent of exposures. Season and antibiotic exposure were key determinants of NP bacterial profiles. Understudied but highly prevalent exposures prevalent in LMICs, including maternal smoking and HIV-exposure, were associated with NP bacterial profiles. Video Abstract.

Mortality and morbidity assessment attributed to short- and long-term exposure to fine particles in ambient air of Agadir city, Morocco: The AirQ model approach

It is well established that respiratory mortality and morbidity are associated with high concentrations of fine particles such as PM2.5. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long- and short-term impacts of PM2.5 on the population of Agadir, Morocco, using AirQ 2.1.1 software. The mean PM2.5 values were obtained from data collected at three sites. Baseline incidence data were obtained from the literature, and relative risk (RR) values were referenced from the World Health Organization. This study quantified long-term total mortality (LT-TM), lung cancer mortality (LT-LC), morbidity from acute lower respiratory tract infections (LT-ALRI), and morbidity from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (LT-COPD), as well as short-term total mortality (ST-TM). The attributable proportions (AP) of LT-TM and LT-LC were estimated to 14.19% and 18.42%, respectively. Their excess deaths were estimated to 279 and 11 persons, respectively, and their RRs to 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10-1.22) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.12-1.37), respectively. Furthermore, the AP of LT-ALRI and LT-COPD were estimated to 14.36% and 15.68%, respectively, their excess deaths to 33 and 4, and their RRs to 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11-1.31) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00-1.02), respectively. In comparison, the AP of ST-TM was estimated to 1.27%, with a 25-person excess death rate. This study was conducted to inform decision-making and to promote local policies on ambient air quality.

High Incidence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children with Community-Acquired Pneumonia from a City in the Brazilian Pre-Amazon Region

INTRODUCTION

Although fewer children have been affected by the severe form of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) continues to be the leading global cause of child hospitalizations and deaths.

AIM

This study investigated the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) as well its subtypes (RSV A and B), adenovirus (ADV), rhinovirus (HRV), metapneumovirus (HMPV), coronavirus (NL63, OC43, 229E and HKU1), parainfluenza virus subtypes (PI1, PI2 and PI3), bocavirus and influenza A and B viruses (FluA and FluB) in children diagnosed with CAP during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A total of 200 children with clinically confirmed CAP were initially recruited, of whom 107 had negative qPCR results for SARS-CoV-2 and were included in this study. Viral subtypes were identified using a real-time polymerase chain reaction in the nasopharyngeal swab samples.

RESULTS

Viruses were identified in 69.2% of the patients. RSV infections were the most frequently identified (65.4%), with type RSV B being the most prevalent (63.5%). In addition, HCoV 229E and HRV were detected in 6.5% and 3.7% of the patients, respectively. RSV type B was associated with severe acute respiratory infection (ARI) and a younger age (less than 24 months).

CONCLUSIONS

New strategies for preventing and treating viral respiratory infections, particularly RSV infections, are necessary.

Acute lower respiratory infections among children under five in Sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of prevalence and risk factors

BACKGROUND

Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs) among children under five are still the leading cause of mortality among this group of children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scoping review aims to map evidence on prevalence and risk factors associated with ALRTIs among children under 5 years to inform interventions, policies and future studies.

METHODS

A thorough search was conducted via four main databases (PubMed, JSTOR, Web of Science and Central). In all, 3,329 records were identified, and 107 full-text studies were considered for evaluation after vigorous screening and removing duplicates, of which 43 were included in this scoping review.

FINDINGS

Findings indicate a high prevalence (between 1.9% to 60.2%) of ALRTIs among children under five in SSA. Poor education, poverty, malnutrition, exposure to second-hand smoke, poor ventilation, HIV, traditional cooking stoves, unclean fuel usage, poor sanitation facilities and unclean drinking water make children under five more vulnerable to ALRTIs in SSA. Also, health promotion strategies like health education have doubled the health-seeking behaviours of mothers of children under 5 years against ALRTIs.

CONCLUSION

ALRTIs among children under five still present a significant disease burden in SSA. Therefore, there is a need for intersectoral collaboration to reduce the burden of ALRTIs among children under five by strengthening poverty alleviation strategies, improving living conditions, optimising child nutrition, and ensuring that all children have access to clean water. There is also the need for high-quality studies where confounding variables in ALRTIs are controlled.

In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

OBJECTIVES

We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32).

CONCLUSION

Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Maternal diet modulates the infant microbiome and intestinal Flt3L necessary for dendritic cell development and immunity to respiratory infection

Poor maternal diet during pregnancy is a risk factor for severe lower respiratory infections (sLRIs) in the offspring, but the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. Here, we demonstrate that in mice a maternal low-fiber diet (LFD) led to enhanced LRI severity in infants because of delayed plasmacytoid dendritic cell (pDC) recruitment and perturbation of regulatory T cell expansion in the lungs. LFD altered the composition of the maternal milk microbiome and assembling infant gut microbiome. These microbial changes reduced the secretion of the DC growth factor Flt3L by neonatal intestinal epithelial cells and impaired downstream pDC hematopoiesis. Therapy with a propionate-producing bacteria isolated from the milk of high-fiber diet-fed mothers, or supplementation with propionate, conferred protection against sLRI by restoring gut Flt3L expression and pDC hematopoiesis. Our findings identify a microbiome-dependent Flt3L axis in the gut that promotes pDC hematopoiesis in early life and confers disease resistance against sLRIs.

Multi-Modal Portable Respiratory Rate Monitoring Device for Childhood Pneumonia Detection

Accurate assessment of Respiratory Rate (RR) is the most important mechanism in detecting pneumonia in low-resource settings. Pneumonia is a disease with one of the highest mortality rates among young children under five. However, the diagnosis of pneumonia for infants remains challenging, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). In such situations, RR is most often measured manually with visual inspection. Accurate RR measurement requires the child to remain calm without any stress for a few minutes. The difficulty in achieving this with a sick child in a clinical environment can result in errors and misdiagnosis, even more so when the child is crying and non-cooperating around unfamiliar adults. Therefore, we propose an automated novel RR monitoring device built with textile glove and dry electrodes which can make use of the relaxed posture when the child is resting on the carer's lap. This portable system is non-invasive and made with affordable instrumentation integrated on customized textile glove. The glove has multi-modal automated RR detection mechanism that simultaneously uses bio-impedance and accelerometer data. This novel textile glove with dry electrodes can easily be worn by a parent/carer and is washable. The real-time display on a mobile app shows the raw data and the RR value, allowing a healthcare professional to monitor the results from afar. The prototype device has been tested on 10 volunteers with age variation of 3 years to 33 years, including male and female. The maximum variation of measured RR with the proposed system is ±2 compared to the traditional manual counting method. It does not create any discomfort for either the child or the carer and can be used up to 60 to 70 sessions/day before recharging.

What are the risk factors for death among children with pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review

Background

Knowledge of the risk factors for and causes of treatment failure and mortality in childhood pneumonia is important for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment at an individual and population level. This review aimed to identify the most important risk factors for mortality among children aged under ten years with pneumonia.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies reporting risk factors for mortality in children (aged two months to nine years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, assessed risk of bias using the EPHPP framework, and extracted data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for death. We synthesized data descriptively and using Forest plots and did not attempt meta-analysis due to the heterogeneity in study design, definitions, and populations.

Findings

We included 143 studies in this review. Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen level), decreased conscious state, severe acute malnutrition, and the presence of an underlying chronic condition were the risk factors most strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality in children with pneumonia. Additional important clinical factors that were associated with mortality in the majority of studies included particular clinical signs (cyanosis, pallor, tachypnoea, chest indrawing, convulsions, diarrhoea), chronic comorbidities (anaemia, HIV infection, congenital heart disease, heart failure), as well as other non-severe forms of malnutrition. Important demographic factors associated with mortality in the majority of studies included age <12 months and inadequate immunisation. Important laboratory and investigation findings associated with mortality in the majority of studies included: confirmed Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), consolidation on chest x-ray, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, and leukopenia. Several other demographic, clinical and laboratory findings were associated with mortality less consistently or in a small numbers of studies.

Conclusions

Risk assessment for children with pneumonia should include routine evaluation for hypoxaemia (pulse oximetry), decreased conscious state (e.g. AVPU), malnutrition (severe, moderate, and stunting), and the presence of an underlying chronic condition as these are strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality. Other potentially useful risk factors include the presence of pallor or anaemia, chest indrawing, young age (<12 months), inadequate immunisation, and leukopenia.

Severity of illness and mortality among children admitted to a tertiary referral hospital in Botswana: A secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study

Objectives

Data on triage practices of children admitted to Princess Marina Hospital in Gaborone, Botswana is limited. The inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score was developed for low resource settings to predict mortality in children. We assess its performance among children admitted to Princess Marina Hospital and their demographic, clinical, and risk factors for death.

Methods

This was a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study comprising 299 children ages 1 month to 13 years admitted June to September 2018. Descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis, and multivariate logistic regression were used. Sensitivity and specificity data were generated for the inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score.

Results

Thirteen children died (13/284, 4.6%). Comorbidity (adjusted odds ratio 4.0, p = 0.020) and high inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score (adjusted odds ratio 5.0, p = 0.017) increased odds of death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81. Using inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment cutoff of 4, the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio were 31%, 94%, and 5.0, respectively.

Conclusion

Implementing the inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score in low resource settings may improve identification, treatment, and evaluation of the sickest children.

Global burden of lower respiratory infections during the last three decades

Background

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) cause a substantial mortality, morbidity and economic burden. The present study reported the global, regional and national burden of LRIs and their attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, etiology, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

Methods

Using publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we reported the incidence, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), due to LRIs. Estimates were presented as counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population with their associated uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

Globally, in 2019 there were 488.9 million (95% UI: 457.6 to 522.6) incident cases and 2.4 million (2.3-2.7) deaths due to LRIs. The global age-standardized incidence and death rates for LRIs were 6,295 (5,887.4-6,737.3) and 34.3 (31.1-37.9) per 100,000 in 2019, which represents a 23.9% (22.5-25.4) and 48.5% (42.9-54.0) decrease, respectively since 1990. In 2019, Guinea [12,390.4 (11,495.5-13,332.8)], Chad [12,208.1 (11,289.3-13,202.5)] and India [11,862.1 (11,087.0-12,749.0)] had the three highest age-standardized incidence rates of LRI. Equatorial Guinea [-52.7% (95% UI: -55.8 to -49.3)], Chile [-50.2% (95% UI: -53.4 to -47.0)] and Albania [-48.6% (95% UI: -51.7 to -45.3)] showed the largest decreases from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, a decrease in the incidence rate of LRI was observed at the global level up to the 25-29 age group, then the incidence rates increased with age. The burden of LRIs decreased with increasing SDI at both the regional and national levels. Globally, child wasting (33.1%), household air pollution from solid fuels (24.9%) and a lack of access to handwashing facilities (14.4%) made the largest contributions to the LRI burden in 2019.

Conclusions

Although the burden of LRIs decreased over the period 1990-2019, LRIs still contribute to a large number of incident cases, deaths and DALYs. Preventative programs with a focus on reducing exposure to attributable risk factors should be implemented, especially in less developed countries.

Social contacts and other risk factors for respiratory infections among internally displaced people in Somaliland

BACKGROUND

Populations affected by humanitarian crises experience high burdens of acute respiratory infections (ARI), potentially driven by risk factors for severe disease such as poor nutrition and underlying conditions, and risk factors that may increase transmission such as overcrowding and the possibility of high social mixing. However, little is known about social mixing patterns in these populations.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional social contact survey among internally displaced people (IDP) living in Digaale, a permanent IDP camp in Somaliland. We included questions on household demographics, shelter quality, crowding, travel frequency, health status, and recent diagnosis of pneumonia, and assessed anthropometric status in children. We present the prevalence of several risk factors relevant to transmission of respiratory infections, and calculated age-standardised social contact matrices to assess population mixing.

RESULTS

We found crowded households with high proportions of recent self-reported pneumonia (46% in children). 20% of children younger than five are stunted, and crude death rates are high in all age groups. ARI risk factors were common. Participants reported around 10 direct contacts per day. Social contact patterns are assortative by age, and physical contact rates are very high (78%).

CONCLUSIONS

ARI risk factors are very common in this population, while the large degree of contacts that involve physical touch could further increase transmission. Such IDP settings potentially present a perfect storm of risk factors for ARIs and their transmission, and innovative approaches to address such risks are urgently needed.

Prevalence of pneumonia and malnutrition among children in Jigawa state, Nigeria: a community-based clinical screening study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the point prevalence of pneumonia and malnutrition and explore associations with household socioeconomic factors.

DESIGN

Community-based cross-sectional study conducted in January-June 2021 among a random sample of households across all villages in the study area.

SETTING

Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa state, Nigeria.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged 0-59 months who were permanent residents in Kiyawa and present at home at the time of the survey.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pneumonia (non-severe and severe) defined using WHO criteria (2014 revision) in children aged 0-59 months. Malnutrition (moderate and severe) defined using mid-upper arm circumference in children aged 6-59 months.

RESULTS

9171 children were assessed, with a mean age of 24.8 months (SD=15.8); 48.7% were girls. Overall pneumonia (severe or non-severe) point prevalence was 1.3% (n=121/9171); 0.6% (n=55/9171) had severe pneumonia. Using an alternate definition that did not rely on caregiver-reported cough/difficult breathing revealed higher pneumonia prevalence (n=258, 2.8%, 0.6% severe, 2.2% non-severe). Access to any toilet facility was associated with lower odds of pneumonia (aOR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.31 to 1.01). The prevalence of malnutrition (moderate or severe) was 15.6% (n=1239/7954) with 4.1% (n=329/7954) were severely malnourished. Being older (aOR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.27), male (aOR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.91) and having head of compound a business owner or professional (vs subsistence farmer, aOR 0.71; 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.90) were associated with lower odds of malnutrition.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, representative community-based survey, there was a considerable pneumonia and malnutrition morbidity burden. We noted challenges in the diagnosis of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness-defined pneumonia in this context.

Bioelectrical impedance vector analysis as an indicator of malnutrition in children under five years with and without pneumonia in Mchinji District, Malawi: An exploratory mixed-methods analysis

Background: Bioelectrical impedance vector analysis (BIVA) is a non-invasive assessment of body composition and cellular health, which may improve the assessment of nutritional status in sick children. We explored the reliability, clinical utility, and acceptability of BIVA, as an indicator of nutritional status for children under five years with and without pneumonia, in Malawi. Methods: We conducted a parallel convergent mixed-methods exploratory study in Mchinji District Hospital, Malawi, in 2017. We planned to recruit a convenience sample of children aged 0-59 months with clinical pneumonia, and without an acute illness. Children had duplicate anthropometric and BIVA measurements taken. BIVA measurements of phase angle (PA) were taken of the whole body, and trunk and arm segments. Reliability was assessed by comparing the variability in the two measures, and clinical utility by estimating the association between anthropometry and PA using linear regression. Focus group discussions with healthcare workers who had not previously used BIVA instrumentation were conducted to explore acceptability. Results: A total of 52 children (24 with pneumonia and 28 healthy) were analysed. The reliability of sequential PA measurements was lower than anthropometric measurements, but trunk and arm segments performed better. The largest associations with PA were a negative relationship with weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and PA in children with pneumonia in the trunk segment, and a positive association with WAZ in the full body measurement in healthy children. Healthcare workers in focus group discussions expressed trust in BIVA technology and that it would enable more accurate diagnosis of malnutrition; however, they raised concerns about the sustainability and necessary resources to implement BIVA.  Conclusions: While healthcare workers were positive towards BIVA as a novel technology, implementation challenges should be expected. The differential direction of association between anthropometry and PA for children with pneumonia warrants further investigation.

Childhood Pneumonia Diagnostics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

The prompt and accurate aetiological diagnosis of childhood pneumonia remains a challenge, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) because of limited resources for disease management.

OBJECTIVE

To review existing diagnostics for childhood pneumonia and potential modalities available to differentiate between bacterial and viral aetiologies in SSA.

METHODS

Online databases were searched for relevant articles published between January 2010 and December 2020 regarding childhood pneumonia diagnosis, conducted in SSA in children less than 18 years of age. The 2020 PRISMA checklist was utilized in appraising the selected studies and the QUADAS-2 tool was employed to assess the risk of bias in each of the studies selected.

RESULTS

A total of 1542 study titles and abstracts were screened following which 45 studies (39 on childhood pneumonia diagnostics and 6 on discriminating between bacterial and viral childhood pneumonia) were selected for review. Microbiological investigations (79.7%) constituted the most utilized index tests with blood-related specimen (32.8%) being the most utilized specimen. The most performed index diagnostic modality was polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (53.1%). The commonest reference gold standard technique was based on clinical diagnosis of the disease (46.2%). Only six studies in SSA attempted at using serum biomarkers, either singly or in combination to distinguish between aetiologies with use of combined biomarkers showing promise.

CONCLUSION

Microbiological investigations are the most employed diagnostic methods for childhood pneumonia in SSA. More studies are required to evaluate the potential use of serum biomarkers; either singly or in combination with the goal of discriminating bacterial and viral childhood pneumonia.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Clinical manifestations and outcome of viral acute lower respiratory infection in hospitalised children in Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) remains the leading cause of death in children worldwide, and viruses have been the major cause of ALRI. In Myanmar, ALRI is associated with high morbidity and mortality in children, and detailed information on ALRI is currently lacking.

METHODS

This prospective study investigated the viral aetiologies, clinical manifestations, and outcomes of ALRI in hospitalised children aged 1 month to 12 years at the Yankin Children Hospital, Yangon, Myanmar from May 2017 to April 2019. The sample size was set to 300 patients for each year. Two nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained for the patients with suspected viral ALRI; one for rapid tests for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and the other for real-time PCR for the 16 ALRI-causing viruses. Pneumococcal colonization rates were also investigated using real-time PCR. Clinical information was extracted from the medical records, and enrolled patients were categorised by age and severity for comparison.

RESULTS

Among the 5463 patients admitted with a diagnosis of ALRI, 570 (10.4%) were enrolled in this study. The median age of the patients was 8 months (interquartile range, 4-15 months). The most common symptoms were cough (93%) and difficulty in breathing (73%), while the most common signs of ALRI were tachypnoea (78%) and chest indrawing (67%). A total of 16 viruses were detected in 502 of 570 patients' samples (88%), with RSV B (36%) and rhinovirus (28%) being the most commonly detected. Multiple viruses were detected in 221 of 570 samples (37%) collected from 570 patients. Severe ALRI was diagnosed in 107 of 570 patients (19%), and RSV B and human rhinovirus were commonly detected. The mortality rate was 5%; influenza virus A (29%) and RSV B (21%) were commonly detected, and stunting and lack of immunization were frequently observed in such cases. Additionally, 45% (259/570) of the patients had pneumococcal colonization.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral ALRI in hospitalised children with a median of 8 months has significant morbidity and mortality rates in Myanmar. RSV and rhinovirus were the most commonly detected from nasopharyngeal swabs, while influenza virus and RSV were the most frequently associated with fatal cases.

Identifying modifiable risk factors for mortality in children aged 1-59 months admitted with WHO-defined severe pneumonia: a single-centre observational cohort study from rural Malawi

OBJECTIVE

Although HIV infection, severe malnutrition and hypoxaemia are associated with high mortality in children with WHO-defined severe pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa, many do not have these conditions and yet mortality remains elevated compared with high-resource settings. Further stratifying mortality risk for children without these conditions could permit more strategic resource utilisation and improved outcomes. We therefore evaluated associations between mortality and clinical characteristics not currently recognised by the WHO as high risk among children in Malawi with severe pneumonia but without HIV (including exposure), severe malnutrition and hypoxaemia.

METHODS

Between May 2016 and March 2018, we conducted a prospective observational study alongside a randomised controlled trial (CPAP IMPACT) at Salima District Hospital in Malawi. Children aged 1-59 months hospitalised with WHO-defined severe pneumonia without severe malnutrition, HIV and hypoxaemia were enrolled. Study staff assessed children at admission and ascertained hospital outcomes. We compared group characteristics using Student's t-test, rank-sum test, χ² test or Fisher's exact test as appropriate.

RESULTS

Among 884 participants, grunting (10/112 (8.9%) vs 11/771 (1.4%)), stridor (2/14 (14.2%) vs 19/870 (2.1%)), haemoglobin <50 g/L (3/27 (11.1%) vs 18/857 (2.1%)) and malaria (11/204 (5.3%) vs 10/673 (1.4%)) were associated with mortality compared with children without these characteristics. Children who survived had a 22 g/L higher mean haemoglobin and 0.7 cm higher mean mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) than those who died.

CONCLUSION

In this single-centre study, our analysis identifies potentially modifiable risk factors for mortality among hospitalised Malawian children with severe pneumonia: specific signs of respiratory distress (grunting, stridor), haemoglobin <50 g/L and malaria infection. Significant differences in mean haemoglobin and MUAC were observed between those who survived and those who died. These factors could further stratify mortality risk among hospitalised Malawian children with severe pneumonia lacking recognised high-risk conditions.

Bacterial etiology of pneumonia in children up to 2 months of age: a systematic review

Background: Following the widespread introduction of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), a significant impact on pneumonia mortality in children under five years of age has been reported. It is still unknown whether PCVs are expected to reduce pneumonia burden in younger children, particularly ≤2 months of age, as current evidence on the role of S. pneumoniae in pneumonia etiology in this age group is scarce. We aimed to summarize the evidence of bacterial etiology of pneumonia in children ≤2 months of age. Methods: We conducted a systematic review considering studies evaluating a variety of syndromes associated with pneumonia, and reporting on laboratory confirmed etiologies, considering any diagnostic method and a variety of clinical specimens.  We searched Medline/PubMed, Embase, WoS, Central and Index Medicus Global published in any language till April 30th, 2021. We included studies addressing the outcomes of interest in children ≤2 months of age and reporting on clinical trials, observational studies, and case series with at least 10 events. Screening of citations and data extraction were conducted in duplicate by independent reviewers, according to the study protocol registered on PROSPERO. Descriptive analyses of the various etiologic agents by syndrome are reported. Results: We identified 3,744 citations, of which 22 publications reporting on 13 studies were included. Study methods varied significantly. Nonetheless, gram positive organisms, in particular S. pneumoniae, were identified as important etiologic agents of pneumonia in children ≤2 months of age. Viral etiologies, in particular Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Rhinovirus, and Influenza were also identified. Conclusions: This review provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the etiologies of pneumonia in children ≤2 months of age, suggesting that PCV impact is expected to occur in this age group. These results also have major implications for diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia in this age group.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene and Nutritional Risk Factors for Acute Respiratory Illness in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: REDUCE Prospective Cohort Study

The objective of this cohort study was to examine the prevalence of acute respiratory illness among children under 5 years of age and to identify water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and nutritional risk factors. This prospective cohort study was conducted in Walungu Territory, South Kivu, and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and enrolled 512 participants. Spot checks of the household environment were conducted at baseline. Baseline minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was defined by consumption of five or more of the following food groups: 1) breast milk; 2) grains, roots, and tubers; 3) legumes and nuts; 4) dairy products; 5) flesh foods; 6) eggs; 7) vitamin A rich fruits and vegetables; and 8) other fruits and vegetables. Acute respiratory illness was defined as caregiver reported rapid breathing, difficulty breathing, lower chest wall in drawing, or coughing in the previous 2 weeks obtained at a 6-month follow-up based on the use of this definition in previous studies in Bangladesh and Kenya. A total of 58% of children had acute respiratory illness, 19% had soap present in the cooking area, and 4% in the defecation area, and 21% of children met MDD. A decreased odds of acute respiratory illness was associated with soap being present in the cooking area (odds ratio [OR]: 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.38-0.88) and MDD (OR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.38-1.00). These findings highlight the need for interventions targeting hygiene and improved dietary diversity among rural DRC households to reduce the rate of respiratory illnesses in children under 5 years.

The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants ≤ 2 years, with older infants (6-23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be prepared for an intense RSV season in early 2022.

Bayesian multilevel analysis of determinants of acute respiratory infection in children under the age of five years in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) is one of the leading causes of illness and mortality in children under the age of five worldwide. Pneumonia, which is caused by a respiratory tract infection, kills about 1.9 million children under the age of 5 years around the world. The majority of these deaths occur in underdeveloped countries. According to the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), the prevalence rate of ARI in Ethiopia was 7%. Prevalence is defined as the number of infectious diseases present at a given period in relation to the total number of children under the age of five who have been exposed to ARI. The goal of this study was to determine the risk factors for acute respiratory infection among children under the age of five in Ethiopia.

METHODS

To provide representative samples of the population, a community-based cross-sectional sampling scheme was designed. Bayesian multilevel approach was employed to assess factors associated with the prevalence of ARI among children under age five in Ethiopia. The data was collected from 10,641 children under the age of 5 years out of which 9918 children were considered in this study.

RESULTS

The ARI prevalence rate in children under the age of 5 years was assessed to be 8.4%, somewhat higher than the country's anticipated prevalence rate. Children whose mothers did not have a high level of education had the highest prevalence of ARI. The key health, environmental, and nutritional factors influencing the proportion of children with ARI differed by area. Tigray (15.3%) and Oromia (14.4%) had the highest prevalence of ARI, while Benishangul Gumuz had the lowest prevalence (2.6%). The use of vitamin A was investigated, and the results revealed that roughly 43.1% of those who received vitamin A had the lowest prevalence of ARI (7.7%) as compared to those who did not receive vitamin A. Diarrhea affected 11.1% of children under the age of five, with the highest frequency of ARI (24.6%) and the highest prevalence of ARI reported in children whose drinking water source was unprotected/unimproved (9.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of ARI among children under the age of 5 years was found to be strongly affected by the child's age, household wealth index, mother's educational level, vitamin A supplement, history of diarrhea, maternal work, stunting, and drinking water source. The study also found that the incidence of ARI varies significantly between and within Ethiopian areas. When intending to improve the health status of Ethiopian children, those predictive variables should be taken into consideration.

Prevalence and determinants of fever, ARI and diarrhea among children aged 6–59 months in Bangladesh

Background

Although efforts have been made by the international community to improve childhood health, risk factors linked with the healthiness of preschool-age children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are very diverse. Therefore, this paper examines the prevalence and determinants of fever, acute respiratory infection and diarrhea of preschool children in Bangladesh.

Methods

A sample of 8,421 children from the latest country representative BDHS-2017–18 survey was analyzed by utilizing both the bivariate and multivariate techniques.

Results

The results revealed that about 4.7, 33.1, and 35.8% of the children aged under 5 years had suffered from diarrhea, fever and ARI respectively during the 2 weeks preceding the date of the survey. Demographic, socio-economic, and community and health characteristics likely to play an important role in suffering under-five children from diarrhea, fever, and ARI in Bangladesh. The child’s age of 13–24 months, delivery by cesarean section, unsafe drinking water, unhygienic toilet facility, low level of family wealth index and parental education, a higher number of living children in the household, rural residency and regional difference were all found to be most crucial determinants of the occurrences of fever, ARI and diarrhea.

Conclusion

Interventions should focus on improving these significant demographic, socioeconomic, and community and health risk factors. A special attention is necessary to the people who live in rural areas and geospatially disadvantaged regions.

Can El Niño-Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces

Respiratory infectious diseases (RID) are the major form of infectious diseases in China, and are highly susceptible to climatic conditions. Current research mainly focuses on the impact of weather on RID, but there is a lack of research on the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on RID. Therefore, this paper uses the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) and the data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2018 to construct a dynamic panel model to empirically test the causality between ENSO and RID morbidity. Moreover, this paper considers the moderating effects of per capita disposable income and average years of education on this causality. The results show that ENSO can positively and significantly impact RID morbidity, which is 5.842% higher during El Niño years than normal years. In addition, per capita disposable income and average years of education can effectively weaken the relationship between ENSO and RID morbidity. Thus, this paper is of great significance for improving the RID early climate warning system in China and effectively controlling the spread of RID.

Effects of a Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Mobile Health Program on Respiratory Illness in Bangladesh: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial of the CHoBI7 Mobile Health Program

Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the Cholera-Hospital-Based-Intervention-for-7-days (CHoBI7) handwashing with soap and water treatment mobile health (mHealth) program on respiratory illness among diarrhea patients and their household members in urban Dhaka, Bangladesh. A cluster-randomized controlled trial of the CHoBI7 mHealth program was conducted among diarrhea patient households in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Patients were randomized to three arms: standard recommendation on oral rehydration solution use, health facility delivery of CHoBI7 plus mHealth (weekly voice and text messages for 12 months) (no home visits), and health facility delivery of CHoBI7 plus two home visits and mHealth. Respiratory symptoms were assessed during monthly clinical surveillance over the 12-month surveillance period. Respiratory illness was defined as rapid breathing, difficulty breathing, wheezing, or coughing. Two thousand six hundred twenty-six participants in 769 households were randomly allocated to three arms: 849 participants to the standard message arm, 886 to the mHealth with no home visits arm, and 891 to the mHealth with two home visits arm. Compared with the standard message arm, participants in the mHealth with no home visits arm (Prevalence Ratio [PR]: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.80, 0.98]), and the mHealth with two home visits arm (PR: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.81, 0.99]) had significantly lower respiratory illness prevalence over the 12-month program period. Our findings demonstrate that the CHoBI7 mHealth program is effective in reducing respiratory illness among diarrhea patient households.

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and factors associated with their poor clinical outcome among children under-five years attending pediatric wards of public hospital in Southwest district of Ethiopia: A prospective observational cohort study

This study was designed to assess the prevalence and factors associated with poor clinical outcome of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) among children less than five years of age at Mizan-Tepi university teaching public hospital in southwest district of Ethiopia. A prospective observational cohort study design was conducted from 01 June to August 30, 2020. Data related to socio-demographics, child nutritional status, clinical and environmental characteristics of patients were collected with structured questionnaire. Follow-up data were gathered from patient’s medical records using standard data collection tool. The data were analyzed using SPSS versions 25.0. In this study, 305 children of age less than five years were included. Of these, 124 (40.7%) of children were diagnosed with ARIs, of which 66 (53.2%) were female and 69 (55.6%) were age of 24–59 months. Of children diagnosed with ARIs, 21 (16.9%) were ended with poor clinical outcomes after completion of their treatment. In the multivariate analysis, age of children and presence of any other disease conditions (OR = 0.331; 95% CI: 0.123– 0.880; p= 0.024), exposure to indoor air pollution (OR = 0.344; 95% CI: 0.128– 0.925; p= 0.030),  malnutrition (OR = 0.175; 95% CI: 0.058– 0.523; p= 0.002) and end point pneumonia (OR = 0.305; 95% CI: 0.113–0.821; p= 0.015) were found to be independent factors for poor outcome of under-five children with ARIs. Our findings highlight that timely detection, proper management and treatments as well as addressing other contributing factors are essentials in order to reduce prevalence and poor clinical outcomes of under five children with ARIs.

Spatial modeling of mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in children under 5 years of age in 2000-2017: a global study

BACKGROUND

Over the past few decades, various goals have been defined to reduce the mortality of children caused by acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) worldwide. However, few spatial studies to date have reported on ALRI deaths.

PURPOSE

We aimed to assess the spatial modeling of mortality from ALRI in children under 5 years of age during 2000-2017 using a global data.

METHODS

The data on the mortality of children under 5 years old caused by ALRI were initially obtained from the official website of the World Health Organization. The income status of their home countries was also gathered from the Country Income Groups (World Bank Classification) website and divided into 5 categories. After that, in the ArcGIS 10.6 environment, a database was created and the statistical tests and related maps were extracted. The Global Moran's I statistic, Getis-Ord Gi statistic, and geographically weighted regression were used for the analyses. In this study, higher z scores indicated the hot spots, while lower z scores indicated the cold spots.

RESULTS

In 2000-2017, child mortality showed a downward trend from 17.6 per 100,000 children to 8.1 and had a clustered pattern. Hot spots were concentrated in Asia in 2000 but shifted toward African countries by 2017. A cold spot that formed in Europe in 2007 showed an ascending trend by 2017. Based on the results of geographically weighted regression test, the regions identified as the hot spots of mortality from ALRI in children under 5 years old were among the middle-income countries (R2=0.01, adjusted R2=8.77).

CONCLUSION

While the total number of child deaths in 2000-2017 has decreased, the number of hot spots has increased among countries. This study also concluded that, during the study period, Central and Western Africa countries became the main new hot spots of deaths from ALRI.

The impact of behavioural risk factors on communicable diseases: a systematic review of reviews

Background

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted that individuals with behavioural risk factors commonly associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as smoking, harmful alcohol use, obesity, and physical inactivity, are more likely to experience severe symptoms from COVID-19. These risk factors have been shown to increase the risk of NCDs, but less is known about their broader influence on communicable diseases. Taking a wide focus on a range of common communicable diseases, this review aimed to synthesise research examining the impact of behavioural risk factors commonly associated with NCDs on risks of contracting, or having more severe outcomes from, communicable diseases.

Methods

Literature searches identified systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined the association between behavioural risk factors (alcohol, smoking, illicit drug use, physical inactivity, obesity and poor diet) and the contraction/severity of common communicable diseases, including infection or associated pathogens. An a priori, prospectively registered protocol was followed (PROSPERO; registration number CRD42020223890).

Results

Fifty-three systematic reviews were included, of which 36 were also meta-analyses. Reviews focused on: tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus, invasive bacterial diseases, pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19. Twenty-one reviews examined the association between behavioural risk factors and communicable disease contraction and 35 examined their association with communicable disease outcomes (three examined their association with both contraction and outcomes). Fifty out of 53 reviews (94%) concluded that at least one of the behavioural risk factors studied increased the risk of contracting or experiencing worse health outcomes from a communicable disease. Across all reviews, effect sizes, where calculated, ranged from 0.83 to 8.22.

Conclusions

Behavioural risk factors play a significant role in the risk of contracting and experiencing more severe outcomes from communicable diseases. Prevention of communicable diseases is likely to be most successful if it involves the prevention of behavioural risk factors commonly associated with NCDs. These findings are important for understanding risks associated with communicable disease, and timely, given the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for improvements in future pandemic preparedness. Addressing behavioural risk factors should be an important part of work to build resilience against any emerging and future epidemics and pandemics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12148-y.

Forecasting PM2.5 concentration using artificial neural network and its health effects in Ahvaz, Iran

The main objective of the present study was to predict the associated health endpoint of PM_2.5 using an artificial neural network (ANN). The neural network used in this work contains a hidden layer with 27 neurons, an input layer with 8 parameters, and an output layer. First, the artificial neural network was implemented with 80% of data for training then with 90% of data for training. The value of R for the data validation of these two networks was 0.80 and 0.83 respectively. The World Health Organization AirQ ⁺ software was utilized for assessing Health effects of PM_2.5 levels. The mean PM_2.5 over the 9-year study period was 63.27(μg/m³), about six times higher than the WHO guideline. However, the PM_2.5 concentration in the last year decreased by about 25% compared to the first year, which is statistically significant (P-value = 0.0048). This reduced pollutant concentration led to a decrease in the number of deaths from 1785 in 2008 to 1059 in 2016. Moreover, a positive correlation was found between PM_2.5 concentration and temperature and wind speed. Considering the importance of predicting PM_2.5 concentration for accurate and timely decisions as well as the accuracy of the artificial neural network used in this study, the artificial neural network can be utilized as an effective instrument to reduce health and economic effects.

Environmental and Occupational Short-Term Exposure to Airborne Particles and FEV1 and FVC in Healthy Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: No study has compared the respiratory effects of environmental and occupational particulate exposure in healthy adults. Methods: We estimated, by a systematic review and meta-analysis, the associations between short term exposures to fine particles (PM_2.5 and PM₄) and certain parameters of lung function (FEV₁ and FVC) in healthy adults. Results: In total, 33 and 14 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis and meta-analyses, respectively. In environmental studies, a 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with an FEV₁ reduction of 7.63 mL (95% CI: −10.62 to −4.63 mL). In occupational studies, an increase of 10 µg/m³ in PM₄ was associated with an FEV₁ reduction of 0.87 mL (95% CI: −1.36 to −0.37 mL). Similar results were observed with FVC. Conclusions: Both occupational and environmental short-term exposures to fine particles are associated with reductions in FEV₁ and FVC in healthy adults.

Clinical outcome and risk factors of patients with suspected pneumonia in Southwest district of Ethiopia, 2020: A retrospective study

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs), especially pneumonia, remain the leading cause of childhood mortality and the most common reason for adult hospitalization in low- and middle-income countries, despite advances in preventative and management strategies. This study was conducted to assess factors associated with poor clinical outcome of suspected pneumonia cases among hospitalized patients at the three public health hospitals in Southwest district of Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May to July, 2020. Those patients admitted with suspected pneumonia were followed up during their hospital stay, and data on outcomes were captured by study nurses. Socio-demographics, clinical features, and follow-up data were gathered, and analyzed using SPSS versions 20.0. The differences in patients’ outcome in relation to their clinical features and epidemiologically linked exposures were described and compared using chi-square tests at 95% confident intervals. In this study, 742 patients with suspected pneumonia were analyzed. Of these, 473 (62.8%) of them were male, and 264 (35.6%) were of age 1–4 years. About 533 (71.8%) patients with suspected pneumonia were presented with irregular respiratory signs/symptoms (more than one symptoms) and 132 (17.9%) had underline illnesses. About 633 (85.4%) of patients were improved after treatment, and 109 (14.7%) of them ended with poor clinical outcome after completion of their treatment. Age of the patients and presence of comorbid conditions such as HIV/AIDS infections and bronchial asthma were identified as the risk factors for poor outcome of patients with suspected pneumonia. The clinical outcome of patients with suspected pneumonia at the three hospitals in Southwest district of Ethiopia was not satisfactory. Our findings highlight that in order to reduce poor clinical outcome related to suspected pneumonia, the efforts should be focused on some factors like management and prevention of chronic comorbidities. Increasing clinicians’ awareness on early management of suspected pneumonia cases is also essential in reducing the burden of the disease .

Acute lower respiratory tract infections and associated factors among under-five children visiting Wolaita Sodo University Teaching and Referral Hospital, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly in children younger than 5 years. Even if the burden of lower respiratory infections in children under 5 years old had decreased dramatically in the last 10 years, it is still the main cause of morbidity and mortality in children under-5 years old in developing countries, so the aim of this study was to assess the magnitude of lower respiratory tract infections and associated factors among under-five children visiting Wolaita Sodo University Teaching and Referral Hospital.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study was conducted from 1st to 30th April 2019, among under-five child/mother or caretaker pairs visiting Wolaita Sodo University Teaching and Referral Hospital. Child/mother or caretaker pairs who visits outpatient department for curative care service or follow up were recruited for the study. Data were collected using a semi-structured pre-tested interviewer-guided questionnaire. Epi-info (version 7.1.2.0) was used for data entry, and Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20 was used for analysis. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression, crude and adjusted odds ratios with their 95 % confidence intervals was computed. Finally, a p-value ≤ 0.05 was used to identify variables that had a significant association with acute lower respiratory infection.

RESULT

A total of 414 child/mother or caretaker pairs were recruited for the study. The magnitude of acute lower respiratory infections among under-five children was 40.3 % (95 % CI: 35.7- 44.9 %). Unvaccinated children (AOR: 2, 95 % CI, (1.27-3.16)), non-exclusive/replacement feeding (AOR: 1.85, 95 % CI, (1.18-2.91)), households mainly used unclean fuel for cooking (AOR: 2.12, 95 % CI, (1.07-4.19)), absence of separate kitchen (AOR: 1.7, 95 % CI, (1.09-2.65)), and absence of window in the kitchen room (AOR: 1.69, 95 % CI, (1.07-2.68)) showed significant association with acute lower respiratory infection.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of acute lower respiratory tract infections among under-five children visiting outpatient department was 40.3 %. Unvaccinated children, non-exclusive/replacement feeding, using unclean fuel for cooking, absence of a separate kitchen, and absence of window in the kitchen showed significant association with acute lower respiratory infection. Therefore, special attention should be given to the environmental sanitation and family health components of health extension packages.

Ambient Air Pollution and Respiratory Health in Sub-Saharan African Children: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Ambient air pollution is projected to become a major environmental risk in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Research into its health impacts is hindered by limited data. We aimed to investigate the cross-sectional relationship between particulate matter with a diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and prevalence of cough or acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) among children under five in SSA. Data were collected from 31 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 21 SSA countries between 2005–2018. Prior-month average PM_2.5 preceding the survey date was assessed based on satellite measurements and a chemical transport model. Cough and ALRI in the past two weeks were derived from questionnaires. Associations were analysed using conditional logistic regression within each survey cluster, adjusting for child’s age, sex, birth size, household wealth, maternal education, maternal age and month of the interview. Survey-specific odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using random-effect meta-analysis. Included were 368,366 and 109,664 children for the analysis of cough and ALRI, respectively. On average, 20.5% children had reported a cough, 6.4% reported ALRI, and 32% of children lived in urban areas. Prior-month average PM_2.5 ranged from 8.9 to 64.6 μg/m³. Pooling all surveys, no associations were observed with either outcome in the overall populations. Among countries with medium-to-high Human Development Index, positive associations were observed with both cough (pooled OR: 1.022, 95%CI: 0.982–1.064) and ALRI (pooled OR: 1.018, 95%CI: 0.975–1.064) for 1 μg/m³ higher of PM_2.5. This explorative study found no associations between short-term ambient PM_2.5 and respiratory health among young SSA children, necessitating future analyses using better-defined exposure and health metrics to study this important link.