Augur: a bioinformatics toolkit for phylogenetic analyses of human pathogens

Whole-genome automated assembly pipeline for Chlamydia trachomatis strains from reference, in vitro and clinical samples using the integrated CtGAP pipeline

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is pivotal for the molecular characterization of Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct)-the leading bacterial cause of sexually transmitted infections and infectious blindness worldwide. Ct WGS can inform epidemiologic, public health and outbreak investigations of these human-restricted pathogens. However, challenges persist in generating high-quality genomes for downstream analyses given its obligate intracellular nature and difficulty with in vitro propagation. No single tool exists for the entirety of Ct genome assembly, necessitating the adaptation of multiple programs with varying success. Compounding this issue is the absence of reliable Ct reference strain genomes. We, therefore, developed CtGAP-Chlamydia trachomatisGenome Assembly Pipeline-as an integrated 'one-stop-shop' pipeline for assembly and characterization of Ct genome sequencing data from various sources including isolates, in vitro samples, clinical swabs and urine. CtGAP, written in Snakemake, enables read quality statistics output, adapter and quality trimming, host read removal, de novo and reference-guided assembly, contig scaffolding, selective ompA, multi-locus-sequence and plasmid typing, phylogenetic tree construction, and recombinant genome identification. Twenty Ct reference genomes were also generated. Successfully validated on a diverse collection of 363 samples containing Ct, CtGAP represents a novel pipeline requiring minimal bioinformatics expertise with easy adaptation for use with other bacterial species.

Development of avian influenza A(H5) virus datasets for Nextclade enables rapid and accurate clade assignment

The ongoing panzootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses is the largest in history, with unprecedented transmission to multiple mammalian species. Avian influenza A viruses of the H5 subtype circulate globally among birds and are classified into distinct clades based on their hemagglutinin (HA) genetic sequences. Thus, the ability to accurately and rapidly assign clades to newly sequenced isolates is key to surveillance and outbreak response. Co-circulation of endemic, low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5) lineages in North American and European wild birds necessitates the ability to rapidly and accurately distinguish between infections arising from these lineages and epizootic HPAI A(H5) viruses. However, currently available clade assignment tools are limited and often require command line expertise, hindering their utility for public health surveillance labs. To address this gap, we have developed datasets to enable A(H5) clade assignments with Nextclade, a drag-and-drop tool originally developed for SARS-CoV-2 genetic clade classification. Using annotated reference datasets for all historical A(H5) clades, clade 2.3.2.1 descendants, and clade 2.3.4.4 descendants provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization/World Organisation for Animal Health (FAO/WHO/WOAH) H5 Working Group, we identified clade-defining mutations for every established clade to enable tree-based clade assignment. We then created three Nextclade datasets which can be used to assign clades to A(H5) HA sequences and call mutations relative to reference strains through a drag-and-drop interface. Nextclade assignments were benchmarked with 19,834 unique sequences not in the reference set using a pre-released version of LABEL, a well-validated and widely used command line software. Prospective assignment of new sequences with Nextclade and LABEL produced very well-matched assignments (match rates of 97.8% and 99.1% for the 2.3.2.1 and 2.3.4.4 datasets, respectively). The all-clades dataset also performed well (94.8% match rate) and correctly distinguished between all HPAI and LPAI strains. This tool additionally allows for the identification of polybasic cleavage site sequences and potential N-linked glycosylation sites. These datasets therefore provide an alternative, rapid method to accurately assign clades to new A(H5) HA sequences, with the benefit of an easy-to-use browser interface.

Higher frequency of interstate over international transmission chains of SARS-CoV-2 virus at the Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil state borders

Brazil's COVID-19 response has faced challenges due to the continuous emergence of variants of concern (VOCs), emphasizing the need for ongoing genomic surveillance and retrospective analyses of past epidemic waves to reassess and fine tune containment protocols. Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil's southernmost state, has international borders and trades with Argentina and Uruguay, along with significant domestic connections within Brazil. The identification of source and sink transmission chains at national and international scales can identify main hubs and pathways to target future interventions. In this study we investigated the RS state role in the national and international SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains, which has not been fully explored. Nasopharyngeal samples from various municipalities in RS were collected between June 2020 and July 2022. SARS-CoV-2 whole genome amplification and sequencing were performed using high-throughput Illumina sequencing. Bioinformatics analysis encompassed the development of scripts and tools to perform subsampling taking into account epidemiological information to reduce sequencing disparities bias among the regions/countries, genome assembly, and large-scale alignment and phylogenetic reconstruction. We sequenced a total of 1,480 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from RS, covering all major regions. Sequences predominantly represented Gamma (April-June 2021) and Omicron (January-July 2022) lineages. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a regional pattern for transmission dynamics, particularly with Southeast Brazil for Gamma, and a range of inter-regional connections for Delta and Omicron within the country. On the other hand, international and cross-border transmission with Argentina and Uruguay was rather limited. We evaluated the three VOCs circulation over two years in RS using a new subsampling strategy based on the number of cases in each state during the circulation of each VOC. In summary, the retrospective analysis of genomic surveillance data demonstrated that virus transmission was less intense between country borders than within the country. These findings suggest that while non-pharmacological interventions were effective to mitigate transmission across international RS land borders, they were insufficient to contain transmission at the domestic level.

Tiled Amplicon Sequencing Enables Culture-free Whole-Genome Sequencing of Pathogenic Bacteria From Clinical Specimens

Pathogen sequencing is an important tool for disease surveillance and demonstrated its high value during the COVID-19 pandemic. Viral sequencing during the pandemic allowed us to track disease spread, quickly identify new variants, and guide the development of vaccines. Tiled amplicon sequencing, in which a panel of primers is used for multiplex amplification of fragments across an entire genome, was the cornerstone of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing. The speed, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of this method led to its implementation in academic and public health laboratories across the world and adaptation to a broad range of viral pathogens. However, similar methods are not available for larger bacterial genomes, for which whole-genome sequencing typically requires in vitro culture. This increases costs, error rates and turnaround times. The need to culture poses particular problems for medically important bacteria such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which are slow to grow and challenging to culture. As a proof of concept, we developed two novel whole-genome amplicon panels for M. tuberculosis and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Applying our amplicon panels to clinical samples, we show the ability to classify pathogen subgroups and to reliably identify markers of drug resistance without culturing. Development of this work in clinical settings has the potential to dramatically reduce the time of diagnosis of drug resistance for multiple drugs in parallel, enabling earlier intervention for high priority pathogens.

Deep mutational scanning of rabies glycoprotein defines mutational constraint and antibody-escape mutations

Rabies virus causes nearly 60,000 human deaths annually. Antibodies that target the rabies glycoprotein (G) are being developed as post-exposure prophylactics, but mutations in G can render such antibodies ineffective. Here, we use pseudovirus deep mutational scanning to measure how all single amino-acid mutations to G affect cell entry and neutralization by a panel of antibodies. These measurements identify sites critical for rabies G's function, and define constrained regions that are attractive epitopes for clinical antibodies, including at the apex and base of the protein. We provide complete maps of escape mutations for eight monoclonal antibodies, including some in clinical use or development. Escape mutations for most antibodies are present in some natural rabies strains. Overall, this work provides comprehensive information on the functional and antigenic effects of G mutations that can help inform development of stabilized vaccine antigens and antibodies that are resilient to rabies genetic variation.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

This study provides an update on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, building upon our initial analysis conducted in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to (1) summarize the status of the pandemic in Canada when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in Canada and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Canada.

METHODS

This longitudinal study analyzed trends in traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates for COVID-19 transmissions and deaths in Canada from June 2020 to May 2023. We also used sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. For these sequences, we used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. We used 1-sided t tests of dynamic panel regression coefficients to measure the persistence of COVID-19 transmissions around the WHO declaration. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether provincial and territorial weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Canada's speed remained below the outbreak threshold for 8 months by the time of the WHO declaration ending the COVID-19 emergency of international concern. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficient remained statistically significant and positive (1.074; P<.001), the 7-day coefficient was negative and small in magnitude (-0.080; P=.02). Furthermore, shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were negligible (0.003 and 0.018, respectively, with P values of .75 and .31), meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had remained stable in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling 1-sided t test of speed equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from mid-October 2022 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Canada, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for 8 months ahead of the WHO declaration. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had largely ended in Canada by the time of the WHO declaration. These results can inform future public health interventions and strategies in Canada, as well as contribute to the global understanding of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Molecular characterization of the meq oncogene of Marek's disease virus in vaccinated Brazilian poultry farms reveals selective pressure on prevalent strains

Marek's disease virus (MDV) has become an increasingly virulent pathogen in the poultry industry despite vaccination efforts to control it. Brazil has experienced a significant rise of Marek's disease (MD) outbreaks in recent years. Our study aimed to analyze the complete meq gene sequences to understand the molecular epidemiological basis of MD outbreaks in Brazilian vaccinated layer farms. We detected a high incidence rate of visceral MD (67.74%) and multiple circulating MDV strains. The most prevalent and geographically widespread genotype presented several clinical and molecular characteristics of a highly virulent strain and evolving under positive selective pressure. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis revealed a closer relationship with strains from the USA and Japan. This study sheds light on the circulation of MDV strains capable of infecting vaccinated birds. We emphasize the urgency of adopting preventive measures to manage MDV outbreaks threatening the poultry farming industry.

Characterization of Conserved Evolution in H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus Prior Mass Vaccination

Vaccination is crucial for the prevention and mitigation of avian influenza infections in China. The inactivated H7N9 vaccine, when administered to poultry, significantly lowers the risk of infection among both poultry and humans, while also markedly decreasing the prevalence of H7N9 detections. Highly pathogenic (HP) H7N9 viruses occasionally appear, whereas their low pathogenicity (LP) counterparts have been scarcely detected since 2018. However, these contributing factors remain poorly understood. We conducted an exploratory investigation of the mechanics via the application of comprehensive bioinformatic approaches. We delineated the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) H7N9 lineage into 5 clades (YRD-A to E). Our findings highlight the emergence and peak occurrence of the LP H7N9-containing YRD-E clade during the 5th epidemic wave in China's primary poultry farming areas. A more effective control of LP H7N9 through vaccination was observed compared to that of its HP H7N9 counterpart. YRD-E exhibited a tardy evolutionary trajectory, denoted by the conservation of its genetic and antigenic variation. Our analysis of YRD-E revealed only minimal amino acid substitutions along its phylogenetic tree and a few selective sweep mutations since 2016. In terms of epidemic fitness, the YRD-E was measured to be lower than that of the HP variants. Collectively, these findings underscore the conserved evolutionary patterns distinguishing the YRD-E. Given the conservation presented in its evolutionary patterns, the YRD-E LP H7N9 is hypothesized to be associated with a reduction following the mass vaccination in a relatively short period owing to its lower probability of antigenic variation that might affect vaccine efficiency.

Dimensionality reduction distills complex evolutionary relationships in seasonal influenza and SARS-CoV-2

Public health researchers and practitioners commonly infer phylogenies from viral genome sequences to understand transmission dynamics and identify clusters of genetically-related samples. However, viruses that reassort or recombine violate phylogenetic assumptions and require more sophisticated methods. Even when phylogenies are appropriate, they can be unnecessary or difficult to interpret without specialty knowledge. For example, pairwise distances between sequences can be enough to identify clusters of related samples or assign new samples to existing phylogenetic clusters. In this work, we tested whether dimensionality reduction methods could capture known genetic groups within two human pathogenic viruses that cause substantial human morbidity and mortality and frequently reassort or recombine, respectively: seasonal influenza A/H3N2 and SARS-CoV-2. We applied principal component analysis, multidimensional scaling (MDS), t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), and uniform manifold approximation and projection to sequences with well-defined phylogenetic clades and either reassortment (H3N2) or recombination (SARS-CoV-2). For each low-dimensional embedding of sequences, we calculated the correlation between pairwise genetic and Euclidean distances in the embedding and applied a hierarchical clustering method to identify clusters in the embedding. We measured the accuracy of clusters compared to previously defined phylogenetic clades, reassortment clusters, or recombinant lineages. We found that MDS embeddings accurately represented pairwise genetic distances including the intermediate placement of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineages between parental lineages. Clusters from t-SNE embeddings accurately recapitulated known phylogenetic clades, H3N2 reassortment groups, and SARS-CoV-2 recombinant lineages. We show that simple statistical methods without a biological model can accurately represent known genetic relationships for relevant human pathogenic viruses. Our open source implementation of these methods for analysis of viral genome sequences can be easily applied when phylogenetic methods are either unnecessary or inappropriate.

Genomic Epidemiology of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Minnesota, USA, July 2023-February 2024

We recently expanded the viral genomic surveillance program in Minnesota, USA, to include human respiratory syncytial virus. We performed whole-genome sequencing of 575 specimens collected at Minnesota healthcare facilities during July 2023-February 2024. Subgroups A and B differed in their genomic landscapes, and we identified 23 clusters of genetically identical genomes.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Sub-Saharan Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

This study updates the initial COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2020 by providing 2 additional years of data for the region.

OBJECTIVE

First, we aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aimed to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA.

METHODS

In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and used Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t-test to assess whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling 6-month window of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to 10 was insignificant for the entire sample period.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate remained below 1 case per 100,000 population for well over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold for its classification as a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic ended in SSA by the time the WHO made its declaration.

Epidemiological and Clinical Insights into the Enterovirus D68 Upsurge in Europe 2021-2022 and Emergence of Novel B3-Derived Lineages, ENPEN Multicentre Study

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections are associated with severe respiratory disease and acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). The European Non-Polio Enterovirus Network (ENPEN) aimed to investigate the epidemiological and genetic characteristics of EV-D68 infections and its clinical impact during the fall-winter season of 2021-2022. From 19 European countries, 58 institutes reported 10 481 (6.8%) EV-positive samples of which 1004 (9.6%) were identified as EV-D68 (including 852 respiratory samples). Clinical data were reported for 969 cases; 78.9% of infections were reported in children (0-5 years); and 37.9% of cases were hospitalized. Acute respiratory distress was commonly noted (93.1%) followed by fever (49.4%). Neurological problems were observed in 6.4% of cases including 6 diagnosed with AFM. Phylodynamic/Nextstrain and phylogenetic analyses based on 694 sequences showed the emergence of 2 novel B3-derived lineages, with no regional clustering. In conclusion, we describe a large-scale European EV-D68 upsurge with severe clinical impact and the emergence of B3-derived lineages.

Early unrecognised SARS-CoV-2 introductions shaped the first pandemic wave, Sweden, 2020

BackgroundDespite the unprecedented measures implemented globally in early 2020 to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, Sweden, as many other countries, experienced a severe first wave during the COVID-19 pandemic.AimWe investigated the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 into Sweden.MethodsWe analysed stored respiratory specimens (n = 1,979), sampled 7 February-2 April 2020, by PCR for SARS-CoV-2 and sequenced PCR-positive specimens. Sequences generated from newly detected cases and stored positive specimens February-June 2020 (n = 954) were combined with sequences (Sweden: n = 730; other countries: n = 129,913) retrieved from other sources for Nextstrain clade assignment and phylogenetic analyses.ResultsTwelve previously unrecognised SARS-CoV-2 cases were identified: the earliest was sampled on 3 March, 1 week before recognised community transmission. We showed an early influx of clades 20A and 20B from Italy (201/328, 61% of cases exposed abroad) and clades 19A and 20C from Austria (61/328, 19%). Clade 20C dominated the first wave (20C: 908/1,684, 54%; 20B: 438/1,684, 26%; 20A: 263/1,684, 16%), and 800 of 1,684 (48%) Swedish sequences formed a country-specific 20C cluster defined by a spike mutation (G24368T). At the regional level, the proportion of clade 20C sequences correlated with an earlier weighted mean date of COVID-19 deaths.ConclusionCommunity transmission in Sweden started when mitigation efforts still focused on preventing influx. This created a transmission advantage for clade 20C, likely introduced from ongoing cryptic spread in Austria. Therefore, pandemic preparedness should have a comprehensive approach, including capacity for large-scale diagnostics to allow early detection of travel-related cases and community transmission.

Spillover of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus to dairy cattle

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus clade 2.3.4.4b has caused the death of millions of domestic birds and thousands of wild birds in the USA since January 2022 (refs. 1-4). Throughout this outbreak, spillovers to mammals have been frequently documented5-12. Here we report spillover of the HPAI H5N1 virus to dairy cattle across several states in the USA. The affected cows displayed clinical signs encompassing decreased feed intake, altered faecal consistency, respiratory distress and decreased milk production with abnormal milk. Infectious virus and viral RNA were consistently detected in milk from affected cows. Viral distribution in tissues via immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization revealed a distinct tropism of the virus for the epithelial cells lining the alveoli of the mammary gland in cows. Whole viral genome sequences recovered from dairy cows, birds, domestic cats and a raccoon from affected farms indicated multidirectional interspecies transmissions. Epidemiological and genomic data revealed efficient cow-to-cow transmission after apparently healthy cows from an affected farm were transported to a premise in a different state. These results demonstrate the transmission of the HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus at a non-traditional interface, underscoring the ability of the virus to cross species barriers.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Timely vaccine strain selection and genomic surveillance improves evolutionary forecast accuracy of seasonal influenza A/H3N2

For the last decade, evolutionary forecasting models have influenced seasonal influenza vaccine design. These models attempt to predict which genetic variants circulating at the time of vaccine strain selection will be dominant 12 months later in the influenza season targeted by vaccination campaign. Forecasting models depend on hemagglutinin (HA) sequences from the WHO's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System to identify currently circulating groups of related strains (clades) and estimate clade fitness for forecasts. However, the average lag between collection of a clinical sample and the submission of its sequence to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) EpiFlu database is ~3 months. Submission lags complicate the already difficult 12-month forecasting problem by reducing understanding of current clade frequencies at the time of forecasting. These constraints of a 12-month forecast horizon and 3-month average submission lags create an upper bound on the accuracy of any long-term forecasting model. The global response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic revealed that modern vaccine technology like mRNA vaccines can reduce how far we need to forecast into the future to 6 months or less and that expanded support for sequencing can reduce submission lags to GISAID to 1 month on average. To determine whether these recent advances could also improve long-term forecasts for seasonal influenza, we quantified the effects of reducing forecast horizons and submission lags on the accuracy of forecasts for A/H3N2 populations. We found that reducing forecast horizons from 12 months to 6 or 3 months reduced average absolute forecasting errors to 25% and 50% of the 12-month average, respectively. Reducing submission lags provided little improvement to forecasting accuracy but decreased the uncertainty in current clade frequencies by 50%. These results show the potential to substantially improve the accuracy of existing influenza forecasting models by modernizing influenza vaccine development and increasing global sequencing capacity.

Rapid PRRSV-2 ORF5-based lineage classification using Nextclade

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) continues to be a global challenge for swine health. Yim-Im et al. 2023 provides a standard genetic nomenclature, extending previously published works to better characterize PRRSV-2 ORF5-based genetic lineages on a global scale. To facilitate the use of this nomenclature, scaffold sequences, including historical and contemporary vaccines, were synthesized into a dataset designed for Nextclade v3.0. Metadata from the scaffold sequences representing year, country, and RFLP typing of the sequence were incorporated into the dataset. These scaffold sequences were processed through the Augur pipeline using DQ478308.1 as a reference strain for rooting and comparison. The resultant classifier can be accessed through the Nextclade website (https://clades.nextstrain.org/) or a link on the PRRSView homepage (https://prrsv.vdl.iastate.edu/). The resultant classifier functions the same as other classifiers hosted by the Nextclade core group and can provide phylogenetic-based PRRSV-2 ORF5 classifications on demand. Nextclade provides additional sequence metrics such as classification quality and notable mutations relative to the reference. The submitted sequences are grafted to the reference tree using phylogenetic placement, allowing for comparison to nearby sequences of reference viruses and vaccine strains. Additional comparisons between sequences can be made with metadata incorporated in the dataset. Although Nextclade is hosted as a webtool, the sequences are not uploaded to a server, and all analysis stay strictly confidential to the user. This work provides a standardized, trivial workflow facilitated by Nextclade to rapidly assign lineage classifications to PRRSV-2, identify mutations of interest, and compare contemporary strains to relevant vaccines.

A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here, we propose adding 2 sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present assignment tools to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national, and subnational discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org.

The resurgence of influenza A/H3N2 virus in Australia after the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions during the 2022 season

This study retrospectively analyzed the genetic characteristics of influenza A H3N2 (A/H3N2) viruses circulating in New South Wales (NSW), the Australian state with the highest number of influenza cases in 2022, and explored the phylodynamics of A/H3N2 transmission within Australia during this period. Sequencing was performed on 217 archived specimens, and A/H3N2 evolution and spread within Australia were analyzed using phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Hemagglutinin genes of all analyzed NSW viruses belonged to subclade 3C.2a1b.2a.2 and clustered together with the 2022 vaccine strain. Complete genome analysis of NSW viruses revealed highly frequent interclade reassortments between subclades 3C.2a1b.2a.2 and 3C.2a1b.1a. The estimated earliest introduction time of the dominant subgroup 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.1 in Australia was February 22, 2022 (95% highest posterior density: December 19, 2021-March 13, 2022), following the easing of Australian travel restrictions, suggesting a possible international source. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that Victoria drove the transmission of A/H3N2 viruses across the country during this season, while NSW did not have a dominant role in viral dissemination to other regions. This study highlights the importance of continuous surveillance and genomic characterization of influenza viruses in the postpandemic era, which can inform public health decision-making and enable early detection of novel strains with pandemic potential.

Coxsackievirus A24 causing acute conjunctivitis in a 2023 outbreak in Vietnam

OBJECTIVES

To determine the associated pathogen during the 2023 conjunctivitis outbreak in Vietnam METHODS: RNA-sequencing was used to identify pathogens before and during the outbreak.

RESULTS

24 patients with infectious conjunctivitis between March and October 2023 from Hai Yen Vision Institute in Vietnam were swabbed. Coxsackievirus A24v was the most common pathogen identified. Phylogenetic analysis of these strains demonstrates similarities to the Coxsackievirus identified in the 2022 India outbreak. Human adenovirus D was also circulating. Ocular findings of tearing, purulence, and itching were common in this outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple viruses can co-circulate during conjunctivitis outbreaks. Hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, commonly associated with coxsackievirus conjunctivitis, was not a common clinical sign in this outbreak. Repeat genetic surveillance, with the notable inclusion of RNA virus detection strategies, is important for outbreak detection.

A program for real-time surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 genetics

The COVID-19 pandemic brought forth an urgent need for widespread genomic surveillance for rapid detection and monitoring of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. It necessitated design, development, and deployment of a nationwide infrastructure designed for sequestration, consolidation, and characterization of patient samples that disseminates de-identified information to public authorities in tight turnaround times. Here, we describe our development of such an infrastructure, which sequenced 594,832 high coverage SARS-CoV-2 genomes from isolates we collected in the United States (U.S.) from March 13th 2020 to July 3rd 2023. Our sequencing protocol ('Virseq') utilizes wet and dry lab procedures to generate mutation-resistant sequencing of the entire SARS-CoV-2 genome, capturing all major lineages. We also characterize 379 clinically relevant SARS-CoV-2 multi-strain co-infections and ensure robust detection of emerging lineages via simulation. The modular infrastructure, sequencing, and analysis capabilities we describe support the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national surveillance program and serve as a model for rapid response to emerging pandemics at a national scale.

Dimensionality reduction distills complex evolutionary relationships in seasonal influenza and SARS-CoV-2

Public health researchers and practitioners commonly infer phylogenies from viral genome sequences to understand transmission dynamics and identify clusters of genetically-related samples. However, viruses that reassort or recombine violate phylogenetic assumptions and require more sophisticated methods. Even when phylogenies are appropriate, they can be unnecessary or difficult to interpret without specialty knowledge. For example, pairwise distances between sequences can be enough to identify clusters of related samples or assign new samples to existing phylogenetic clusters. In this work, we tested whether dimensionality reduction methods could capture known genetic groups within two human pathogenic viruses that cause substantial human morbidity and mortality and frequently reassort or recombine, respectively: seasonal influenza A/H3N2 and SARS-CoV-2. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), multidimensional scaling (MDS), t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), and uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) to sequences with well-defined phylogenetic clades and either reassortment (H3N2) or recombination (SARS-CoV-2). For each low-dimensional embedding of sequences, we calculated the correlation between pairwise genetic and Euclidean distances in the embedding and applied a hierarchical clustering method to identify clusters in the embedding. We measured the accuracy of clusters compared to previously defined phylogenetic clades, reassortment clusters, or recombinant lineages. We found that MDS embeddings accurately represented pairwise genetic distances including the intermediate placement of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineages between parental lineages. Clusters from t-SNE embeddings accurately recapitulated known phylogenetic clades, H3N2 reassortment groups, and SARS-CoV-2 recombinant lineages. We show that simple statistical methods without a biological model can accurately represent known genetic relationships for relevant human pathogenic viruses. Our open source implementation of these methods for analysis of viral genome sequences can be easily applied when phylogenetic methods are either unnecessary or inappropriate.

Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia: Updated Epidemiological Assessment

BACKGROUND

This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Central Asia we conducted during the first year of the pandemic by providing 2 additional years of data for the region. The historical context provided through additional data can inform regional preparedness and early responses to infectious outbreaks of either the SARS-CoV-2 virus or future pathogens in Central Asia.

OBJECTIVE

First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Central Asia when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Central Asia.

METHODS

Traditional surveillance metrics, including counts and rates of COVID-19 transmissions and deaths, and enhanced surveillance indicators, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, were used to measure shifts in the pandemic. To identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively small in magnitude (0.125 and 0.347, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were both significant and negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became entirely insignificant for the first time in March 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in Central Asia, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for 7 months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 appeared to be endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration.

South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment

BACKGROUND

This study updates our findings from the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance we first conducted in South Asia in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the public health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023.

OBJECTIVE

First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia.

METHODS

In addition to updating the traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from our original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases 7 days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continued to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system.

Tracking the prevalence and emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern using a regional genomic surveillance program

SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing coupled with whole-genome sequencing is instrumental for real-time genomic surveillance. Genomic surveillance is critical for monitoring the spread of variants of concern (VOCs) as well as discovery of novel variants. Since the beginning of the pandemic, millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been deposited into public sequence databases. This is the result of efforts of both national and regional diagnostic laboratories. In this study, we describe the results of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance from February 2021 to June 2022 at a metropolitan hospital in the United States. We demonstrate that consistent daily sampling is sufficient to track the regional prevalence and emergence of VOCs and recapitulate national trends. Similar sampling efforts should be considered a viable option for local SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance at other regional laboratories.

IMPORTANCE

In our manuscript, we describe the results of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance from February 2021 to June 2022 at a metropolitan hospital in the United States. We demonstrate that consistent daily sampling is sufficient to track the regional prevalence and emergence of variants of concern (VOCs). Similar sampling efforts should be considered a viable option for local SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance at other regional laboratories. While the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has evolved into a more endemic form, we still believe that additional real-world information about sampling, procedures, and data interpretation is valuable for ongoing as well as future genomic surveillance efforts. Our study should be of substantial interest to clinical virologists.

Standardized Phylogenetic Classification of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus below the Subgroup Level

A globally implemented unified phylogenetic classification for human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) below the subgroup level remains elusive. We formulated global consensus of HRSV classification on the basis of the challenges and limitations of our previous proposals and the future of genomic surveillance. From a high-quality curated dataset of 1,480 HRSV-A and 1,385 HRSV-B genomes submitted to GenBank and GISAID (https://www.gisaid.org) public sequence databases through March 2023, we categorized HRSV-A/B sequences into lineages based on phylogenetic clades and amino acid markers. We defined 24 lineages within HRSV-A and 16 within HRSV-B and provided guidelines for defining prospective lineages. Our classification demonstrated robustness in its applicability to both complete and partial genomes. We envision that this unified HRSV classification proposal will strengthen HRSV molecular epidemiology on a global scale.

Emergence of Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Variants in California from 2020 to 2022

The detection, characterization, and monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 recombinant variants constitute a challenge for public health authorities worldwide. Recombinant variants, composed of two or more SARS-CoV-2 lineages, often have unknown impacts on transmission, immune escape, and virulence in the early stages of emergence. We examined 4213 SARS-CoV-2 recombinant SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between 2020 and 2022 in California to describe regional and statewide trends in prevalence. Many of these recombinant genomes, such as those belonging to the XZ lineage or novel recombinant lineages, likely originated within the state of California. We discuss the challenges and limitations surrounding Pango lineage assignments, the use of publicly available sequence data, and adequate sample sizes for epidemiologic analyses. Although these challenges will continue as SARS-CoV-2 sequencing volumes decrease globally, this study enhances our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 recombinant genomes to date while providing a foundation for future insights into emerging recombinant lineages.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Epidemiology Dashboards: A Review of Functionality and Technological Frameworks for the Public Health Response

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the number and types of dashboards produced increased to convey complex information using digestible visualizations. The pandemic saw a notable increase in genomic surveillance data, which genomic epidemiology dashboards presented in an easily interpretable manner. These dashboards have the potential to increase the transparency between the scientists producing pathogen genomic data and policymakers, public health stakeholders, and the public. This scoping review discusses the data presented, functional and visual features, and the computational architecture of six publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology dashboards. We found three main types of genomic epidemiology dashboards: phylogenetic, genomic surveillance, and mutational. We found that data were sourced from different databases, such as GISAID, GenBank, and specific country databases, and these dashboards were produced for specific geographic locations. The key performance indicators and visualization used were specific to the type of genomic epidemiology dashboard. The computational architecture of the dashboards was created according to the needs of the end user. The genomic surveillance of pathogens is set to become a more common tool used to track ongoing and future outbreaks, and genomic epidemiology dashboards are powerful and adaptable resources that can be used in the public health response.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023.

OBJECTIVE

We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels.

METHODS

In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023.

METHODS

In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.

Spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020-2021 in Pernambuco-Brazil

SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged as a new threat to humans and spread around the world, leaving a large death toll. As of January 2023, Brazil is among the countries with the highest number of registered deaths. Nonpharmacological and pharmacological interventions have been heterogeneously implemented in the country, which, associated with large socioeconomic differences between the country regions, has led to distinct virus spread dynamics. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the Pernambuco state (Northeast Brazil) throughout the distinct epidemiological scenarios that unfolded in the first 2 years of the pandemic. We generated a total of 1,389 new SARS-CoV-2 genomes from June 2020 to August 2021. This sampling captured the arrival, communitary transmission, and the circulation of the B1.1, B.1.1.28, and B.1.1.33 lineages; the emergence of the former variant of interest P.2; and the emergence and fast replacement of all previous variants by the more transmissible variant of concern P.1 (Gamma). Based on the incidence and lineage spread pattern, we observed an East-to-West to inner state pattern of transmission, which is in agreement with the transmission of more populous metropolitan areas to medium- and small-size country-side cities in the state. Such transmission patterns may be partially explained by the main routes of traffic across municipalities in the state. Our results highlight that the fine-grained intrastate analysis of lineages and incidence spread can provide actionable insights for planning future nonpharmacological intervention for air-borne transmissible human pathogens.IMPORTANCEDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, Brazil was one of the most affected countries, mainly due its continental-size, socioeconomic differences among regions, and heterogeneous implementation of intervention methods. In order to investigate SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the state of Pernambuco, we conducted a spatiotemporal dispersion study, covering the period from June 2020 to August 2021, to comprehend the dynamics of viral transmission during the first 2 years of the pandemic. Throughout this study, we were able to track three significant epidemiological waves of transmission caused by B1.1, B.1.1.28, B.1.1.33, P.2, and P.1 lineages. These analyses provided valuable insights into the evolution of the epidemiological landscape, contributing to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of virus transmission during the early years of the pandemic in the state of Pernambuco.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region.

METHODS

In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

Exploring Viral Genome Profile in Mpox Patients during the 2022 Outbreak, in a North-Eastern Centre of Italy

In 2022, an unprecedented outbreak of mpox raged in several nations. Sequences from the 2022 outbreak reveal a higher nucleotide substitution if compared with the estimated rate for orthopoxviruses. Recently, intra-lesion SNVs (single nucleotide variants) have been described, and these have been suggested as possible sources of genetic variation. Until now, it has not been clear if the presence of several SNVs could represents the result of local mutagenesis or a possible co-infection. We investigated the significance of SNVs through whole-genome sequencing analysis of four unrelated mpox cases. In addition to the known mutations harboured by the circulating strains of virus (MPXV), 7 novel mutations were identified, including SNVs located in genes that are involved in immune evasion mechanisms and/or viral fitness, six of these appeared to be APOBEC3-driven. Interestingly, three patients exhibited the coexistence of mutated and wild-type alleles for five non-synonymous variants. In addition, two patients, apparently unrelated, showed an analogous pattern for two novel mutations, albeit with divergent frequencies. The coexistence of mixed viral populations, harbouring non-synonymous mutations in patients, supports the hypothesis of possible co-infection. Additional investigations of larger clinical cohorts are essential to validating intra-patient viral genome heterogeneity and determining the possibility of co-presence events of slightly divergent MPXV strains.

INSaFLU-TELEVIR: an open web-based bioinformatics suite for viral metagenomic detection and routine genomic surveillance

BACKGROUND

Implementation of clinical metagenomics and pathogen genomic surveillance can be particularly challenging due to the lack of bioinformatics tools and/or expertise. In order to face this challenge, we have previously developed INSaFLU, a free web-based bioinformatics platform for virus next-generation sequencing data analysis. Here, we considerably expanded its genomic surveillance component and developed a new module (TELEVIR) for metagenomic virus identification.

RESULTS

The routine genomic surveillance component was strengthened with new workflows and functionalities, including (i) a reference-based genome assembly pipeline for Oxford Nanopore technologies (ONT) data; (ii) automated SARS-CoV-2 lineage classification; (iii) Nextclade analysis; (iv) Nextstrain phylogeographic and temporal analysis (SARS-CoV-2, human and avian influenza, monkeypox, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV A/B), as well as a "generic" build for other viruses); and (v) algn2pheno for screening mutations of interest. Both INSaFLU pipelines for reference-based consensus generation (Illumina and ONT) were benchmarked against commonly used command line bioinformatics workflows for SARS-CoV-2, and an INSaFLU snakemake version was released. In parallel, a new module (TELEVIR) for virus detection was developed, after extensive benchmarking of state-of-the-art metagenomics software and following up-to-date recommendations and practices in the field. TELEVIR allows running complex workflows, covering several combinations of steps (e.g., with/without viral enrichment or host depletion), classification software (e.g., Kaiju, Kraken2, Centrifuge, FastViromeExplorer), and databases (RefSeq viral genome, Virosaurus, etc.), while culminating in user- and diagnosis-oriented reports. Finally, to potentiate real-time virus detection during ONT runs, we developed findONTime, a tool aimed at reducing costs and the time between sample reception and diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The accessibility, versatility, and functionality of INSaFLU-TELEVIR are expected to supply public and animal health laboratories and researchers with a user-oriented and pan-viral bioinformatics framework that promotes a strengthened and timely viral metagenomic detection and routine genomics surveillance. INSaFLU-TELEVIR is compatible with Illumina, Ion Torrent, and ONT data and is freely available at https://insaflu.insa.pt/ (online tool) and https://github.com/INSaFLU (code).

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant (B.1.617.2) in Domestic Dogs and Zoo Tigers in England and Jersey during 2021

Reverse zoonotic transmission events of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been described since the start of the pandemic, and the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) designated the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in animals a reportable disease. Eighteen domestic and zoo animals in Great Britain and Jersey were tested by APHA for SARS-CoV-2 during 2020-2023. One domestic cat (Felis catus), three domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris), and three Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) from a zoo were confirmed positive during 2020-2021 and reported to the WOAH. All seven positive animals were linked with known SARS-CoV-2 positive human contacts. Characterisation of the SARS-CoV-2 variants by genome sequencing indicated that the cat was infected with an early SARS-CoV-2 lineage. The three dogs and three tigers were infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern (B.1.617.2). The role of non-human species in the onward transmission and emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly defined. Continued surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in relevant domestic and captive animal species with high levels of human contact is important to monitor transmission at the human-animal interface and to assess their role as potential animal reservoirs.

Nucleoprotein reassortment enhanced transmissibility of H3 1990.4.a clade influenza A virus in swine

The increased detection of H3 C-IVA (1990.4.a) clade influenza A viruses (IAVs) in US swine in 2019 was associated with a reassortment event to acquire an H1N1pdm09 lineage nucleoprotein (pdmNP) gene, replacing a TRIG lineage NP (trigNP). We hypothesized that acquiring the pdmNP conferred a selective advantage over prior circulating H3 viruses with a trigNP. To investigate the role of NP reassortment in transmission, we identified two contemporary 1990.4.a representative strains (NC/19 and MN/18) with different evolutionary origins of the NP gene. A reverse genetics system was used to generate wild-type (wt) strains and swap the pdm and TRIG lineage NP genes, generating four viruses: wtNC/19-pdmNP, NC/19-trigNP, wtMN/18-trigNP, and MN/18-pdmNP. The pathogenicity and transmission of the four viruses were compared in pigs. All four viruses infected 10 primary pigs and transmitted to five indirect contact pigs per group. Pigs infected via contact with MN/18-pdmNP shed virus 2 days earlier than pigs infected with wtMN/18-trigNP. The inverse did not occur for wtNC/19-pdmNP and NC/19-trigNP. This suggests that pdmNP reassortment resulted in a combination of genes that improved transmission efficiency when paired with the 1990.4.a hemagglutinin (HA). This is likely a multigenic trait, as replacing the trigNP gene did not diminish the transmission of a wild-type IAV in swine. This study demonstrates how reassortment and evolutionary change of internal genes can result in more transmissible viruses that influence HA clade detection frequency. Thus, rapidly identifying novel reassortants paired with dominant hemagglutinin/neuraminidase may improve the prediction of strains to include in vaccines.IMPORTANCEInfluenza A viruses (IAVs) are composed of eight non-continuous gene segments that can reassort during coinfection of a host, creating new combinations. Some gene combinations may convey a selective advantage and be paired together preferentially. A reassortment event was detected in swine in the United States that involved the exchange of two lineages of nucleoprotein (NP) genes (trigNP to pdmNP) that became a predominant genotype detected in surveillance. Using a transmission study, we demonstrated that exchanging the trigNP for a pdmNP caused the virus to shed from the nose at higher levels and transmit to other pigs more rapidly. Replacing a pdmNP with a trigNP did not hinder transmission, suggesting that transmission efficiency depends on interactions between multiple genes. This demonstrates how reassortment alters IAV transmission and that reassortment events can provide an explanation for why genetically related viruses with different internal gene combinations experience rapid fluxes in detection frequency.

Unravelling the link between SARS-CoV-2 mutation frequencies, patient comorbidities, and structural dynamics

Genomic surveillance is crucial for tracking emergence and spread of novel variants of pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, to inform public health interventions and to enforce control measures. However, in some settings especially in low- and middle- income counties, where sequencing platforms are limited, only certain patients get to be selected for sequencing surveillance. Here, we show that patients with multiple comorbidities potentially harbour SARS-CoV-2 with higher mutation rates and thus deserve more attention for genomic surveillance. The relationship between the patient comorbidities, and type of amino acid mutations was assessed. Correlation analysis showed that there was a significant tendency for mutations to occur within the ORF1a region for patients with higher number of comorbidities. Frequency analysis of the amino acid substitution within ORF1a showed that nsp3 P822L of the PLpro protease was one of the highest occurring mutations. Using molecular dynamics, we simulated that the P822L mutation in PLpro represents a system with lower Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) fluctuations, and consistent Radius of gyration (Rg), Solvent Accessible Surface Area (SASA) values-indicate a much stabler protein than the wildtype. The outcome of this study will help determine the relationship between the clinical status of a patient and the mutations of the infecting SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

Molecular and phylogenetic characterization of the monkeypox outbreak in the South of Spain

Background and Aim

Until the May 2022 Monkeypox (MPXV) outbreak, which spread rapidly to many non-endemic countries, the virus was considered a viral zoonosis limited to some African countries. The Andalusian circuit of genomic surveillance was rapidly applied to characterize the MPXV outbreak in the South of Spain.

Methods

Whole genome sequencing was used to obtain the genomic profiles of samples collected across the south of Spain, representative of all the provinces of Andalusia. Phylogenetic analysis was used to study the relationship of the isolates and the available sequences of the 2022 outbreak.

Results

Whole genome sequencing of a total of 160 MPXV viruses from the different provinces that reported cases were obtained. Interestingly, we report the sequences of MPXV viruses obtained from two patients who died. While one of the isolates bore no noteworthy mutations that explain a potential heightened virulence, in another patient the second consecutive genome sequence, performed after the administration of tecovirimat, uncovered a mutation within the A0A7H0DN30 gene, known to be a prime target for tecovirimat in its Vaccinia counterpart. In general, a low number of mutations were observed in the sequences reported, which were very similar to the reference of the 2022 outbreak (OX044336), as expected from a DNA virus. The samples likely correspond to several introductions of the circulating MPXV viruses from the last outbreak. The virus sequenced from one of the two patients that died presented a mutation in a gene that bears potential connections to drug resistance. This mutation was absent in the initial sequencing before treatment.

Genome sequence diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Serbia: insights gained from a 3-year pandemic study

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, has been evolving rapidly causing emergence of new variants and health uncertainties. Monitoring the evolution of the virus was of the utmost importance for public health interventions and the development of national and global mitigation strategies. Here, we report national data on the emergence of new variants, their distribution, and dynamics in a 3-year study conducted from March 2020 to the end of January 2023 in the Republic of Serbia. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs from 2,398 COVID-19-positive patients were collected and sequenced using three different next generation technologies: Oxford Nanopore, Ion Torrent, and DNBSeq. In the subset of 2,107 SARS-CoV-2 sequences which met the quality requirements, detection of mutations, assignment to SARS-CoV-2 lineages, and phylogenetic analysis were performed. During the 3-year period, we detected three variants of concern, namely, Alpha (5.6%), Delta (7.4%), and Omicron (70.3%) and one variant of interest-Omicron recombinant "Kraken" (XBB1.5) (<1%), whereas 16.8% of the samples belonged to other SARS-CoV-2 (sub)lineages. The detected SARS-CoV-2 (sub)lineages resulted in eight COVID-19 pandemic waves in Serbia, which correspond to the pandemic waves reported in Europe and the United States. Wave dynamics in Serbia showed the most resemblance with the profile of pandemic waves in southern Europe, consistent with the southeastern European location of Serbia. The samples were assigned to sixteen SARS-CoV-2 Nextstrain clades: 20A, 20B, 20C, 20D, 20E, 20G, 20I, 21J, 21K, 21L, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D, 22E, and 22F and six different Omicron recombinants (XZ, XAZ, XAS, XBB, XBF, and XBK). The 10 most common mutations detected in the coding and untranslated regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes included four mutations affecting the spike protein (S:D614G, S:T478K, S:P681H, and S:S477N) and one mutation at each of the following positions: 5'-untranslated region (5'UTR:241); N protein (N:RG203KR); NSP3 protein (NSP3:F106F); NSP4 protein (NSP4:T492I); NSP6 protein (NSP6: S106/G107/F108 - triple deletion), and NSP12b protein (NSP12b:P314L). This national-level study is the most comprehensive in terms of sequencing and genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic in Serbia, highlighting the importance of establishing and maintaining good national practice for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses circulating worldwide.

Whole Genome Sequencing of DENV-2 isolated from Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Esmeraldas, Ecuador. Genomic epidemiology of genotype III Southern Asian-American in the country

Ecuador is a tropical country reporting Dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks with areas of hyperendemic viral transmission. Entomo-virological surveillance and monitoring effort conducted in the Northwestern border province of Esmeraldas in April 2022, five pools of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from a rural community tested positive for DENV serotype 2 by RT-qPCR. One pool was sequenced by Illumina MiSeq, and it corresponded to genotype III Southern Asian-American. Comparison with other genomes revealed genetic similarity to a human DENV genome sequenced in 2021, also from Esmeraldas. Potential introduction events to the country could have originated from Colombia, considering the vicinity of the collection sites to the neighboring country and high human movement. The inclusion of genomic information complements entomo-virological surveillance, providing valuable insights into genetic variants. This contribution enhances our understanding of Dengue virus (DENV) epidemiology in rural areas and guides evidence-based decisions for surveillance and interventions.

A framework for automated scalable designation of viral pathogen lineages from genomic data

Pathogen lineage nomenclature systems are a key component of effective communication and collaboration for researchers and public health workers. Since February 2021, the Pango dynamic lineage nomenclature for SARS-CoV-2 has been sustained by crowdsourced lineage proposals as new isolates were sequenced. This approach is vulnerable to time-critical delays as well as regional and personal bias. Here we developed a simple heuristic approach for dividing phylogenetic trees into lineages, including the prioritization of key mutations or genes. Our implementation is efficient on extremely large phylogenetic trees consisting of millions of sequences and produces similar results to existing manually curated lineage designations when applied to SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses including chikungunya virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus complex and Zika virus. This method offers a simple, automated and consistent approach to pathogen nomenclature that can assist researchers in developing and maintaining phylogeny-based classifications in the face of ever-increasing genomic datasets.

Temporal Dynamics and Genomic Landscape of SARS-CoV-2 After Four Years of Evolution

Introduction Since its emergence, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has undergone extensive genomic evolution, impacting public health policies, diagnosis, medication, and vaccine development. This study leverages advanced bioinformatics to assess the virus's temporal and regional genomic evolution from December 2019 to October 2023. Methods Our analysis incorporates 16,575 complete SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected from 214 countries. These samples were comparatively analyzed, with a detailed characterization of nucleic mutations, lineages, distribution, and evolutionary patterns during each year, using the Wuhan-Hu-1 strain as the reference. Results Our analysis has identified a total of 21,580 mutations that we classified into transient mutations, which diminished over time, and persistent mutations with steadily increasing frequencies. This mutation landscape led to a notable surge in the evolutionary rate, rising from 13 mutations per sample in 2020 to 96 by 2023, with minor geographic variations. The phylogenetic analysis unveiled three distinct evolutionary branches, each representing unique viral evolution pathways. These lineages exhibited a tendency for a reduced duration of dominance with a shortening prevalence period over time, as dominant strains were consistently replaced by more fit variants. Notably, the emergence of the Alpha and Delta variants in 2021 was followed by the subsequent dominance of Omicron clade variants that have branched into several recombinant variants in 2022, marking a significant shift in the viral landscape. Conclusion This study sheds light on the dynamic nature of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, emphasizing the importance of continuous and vigilant genomic surveillance. The dominance of recombinant lineages, coupled with the disappearance of local variants, underscores the virus's adaptability.

High-performance enrichment-based genome sequencing to support the investigation of hepatitis A virus outbreaks

IMPORTANCE

This proof-of-concept study introduces a hybrid capture oligo panel for whole-genome sequencing of all six human pathogenic hepatitis A virus (HAV) subgenotypes, exhibiting a higher sensitivity than some conventional genotyping assays. The ability of hybrid capture to enrich multiple targets allows for a single, streamlined workflow, thus facilitating the potential harmonization of molecular surveillance of HAV with other enteric viruses. Even challenging sample matrices can be accommodated, making them suitable for broad implementation in clinical and public health laboratories. This innovative approach has significant implications for enhancing multijurisdictional outbreak investigations as well as our understanding of the global diversity and transmission dynamics of HAV.

A regional genomic surveillance program is implemented to monitor the occurrence and emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Yubei District, China

BACKGROUND

In December 2022, Chongqing experienced a significant surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic after adjusting control measures in China. Given the widespread immunization of the population with the BA.5 variant, it is crucial to actively monitor severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant evolution in Chongqing's Yubei district.

METHODS

In this retrospective study based on whole genome sequencing, we collected oropharyngeal and nasal swab of native COVID-19 cases from Yubei district between January to May 2023, along with imported cases from January 2022 to January 2023. Through second-generation sequencing, we generated a total of 578 genomes.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analyses revealed these genomes belong to 47 SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineages. BA.5.2.48 was dominant from January to April 2023, rapidly replaced by XBB* variants from April to May 2023. Bayesian Skyline Plot reconstructions indicated a higher evolutionary rate (6.973 × 10-4 subs/site/year) for the XBB.1.5* lineage compared to others. The mean time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of BA.5.2.48* closely matched BA.2.75* (May 27, 2022). Using multinomial logistic regression, we estimated growth advantages, with XBB.1.9.1 showing the highest growth advantage (1.2, 95% HPI:1.1-1.2), followed by lineage FR.1 (1.1, 95% HPI:1.1-1.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Our monitoring reveals the rapid replacement of the previously prevalent BA.5.2.48 variant by XBB and its sub-variants, underscoring the ineffectiveness of herd immunity and breakthrough BA.5 infections against XBB variants. Given the ongoing evolutionary pressure, sustaining a SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance program is imperative.

Evolutionary Analysis of a Parrot Bornavirus 2 Detected in a Sulphur-Crested Cockatoo (Cacatua galerita) Suggests a South American Ancestor

Parrot bornavirus (PaBV) is an RNA virus that causes Proventricular Dilatation Disease (PDD), neurological disorders, and death in Psittaciformes. Its diversity in South America is poorly known. We examined a Cacatua galerita presenting neuropathies, PDD, and oculopathies as the main signs. We detected PaBV through reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and partial sequencing of the nucleoprotein (N) and matrix (M) genes. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inferences classified it as PaBV-2. The nucleotide identity of the sequenced strain ranged from 88.3% to 90.3% against genotype PaBV-2 and from 80.2% to 84.4% against other genotypes. Selective pressure analysis detected signs of episodic diversifying selection in both the N and M genes. No recombination events were detected. Phylodynamic analysis estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) as the year 1758 for genotype PaBV-2 and the year 1049 for the Orthobornavirus alphapsittaciforme species. Substitution rates were estimated at 2.73 × 10-4 and 4.08 × 10-4 substitutions per year per site for N and M, respectively. The analysis of population dynamics showed a progressive decline in the effective population size during the last century. Timescale phylogeographic analysis revealed a potential South American ancestor as the origin of genotypes 1, 2, and 8. These results contribute to our knowledge of the evolutionary origin, diversity, and dynamics of PaBVs in South America and the world. Additionally, it highlights the importance of further studies in captive Psittaciformes and the potential impact on endangered wild birds.

Genomic epidemiology reveals the dominance of Hennepin County in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Minnesota from 2020 to 2022

IMPORTANCE

We analyzed over 22,000 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes of patient samples tested at Mayo Clinic Laboratories during a 2-year period in the COVID-19 pandemic, which included Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants of concern to examine the roles and relationships of Minnesota virus transmission. We found that Hennepin County, the most populous county, drove the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in the state after including the formation of earlier clades including 20A, 20C, and 20G, as well as variants of concern Alpha and Delta. We also found that Hennepin County was the source for most of the county-to-county introductions after an initial predicted introduction with the virus in early 2020 from an international source, while other counties acted as transmission "sinks." In addition, major policies, such as the end of the lockdown period in 2020 or the end of all restrictions in 2021, did not appear to have an impact on virus diversity across individual counties.

Unravelling the effect of New Year's Eve celebrations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Public holidays have been associated with SARS-CoV-2 incidence surges, although a firm link remains to be established. This association is sometimes attributed to events where transmissions occur at a disproportionately high rate, known as superspreading events. Here, we describe a sudden surge in new cases with the Omicron BA.1 strain amongst higher education students in Belgium. Contact tracers classed most of these cases as likely or possibly infected on New Year's Eve, indicating a direct trigger by New Year celebrations. Using a combination of contact tracing and phylogenetic data, we show the limited role of superspreading events in this surge. Finally, the numerous simultaneous transmissions allowed a unique opportunity to determine the distribution of incubation periods of the Omicron strain. Overall, our results indicate that, even under social restrictions, a surge in transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 can occur when holiday celebrations result in small social gatherings attended simultaneously and communitywide.

Early underdetected dissemination across countries followed by extensive local transmission propelled the 2022 mpox epidemic

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case-reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.