Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey

Efficacy of Internet Recruitment and HIV Self-Testing for Diagnosing HIV Infections Among Black and Hispanic/Latino MSM and Transgender Women in 11 US States, 2020-2021

INTRODUCTION

We evaluated internet platforms for distributing HIV self-tests (HIVSTs) to Black or African American (Black) and Hispanic or Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW).

METHODS

We recruited MSM and TGW from general interest, dating, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender platforms. Two HIVSTs were mailed to all MSM and TGW. Surveys (screening, baseline, 4-month, and results reporting) were completed online. After 4 months, participants were mailed another HIVST and a dried blood spot card. All HIVST interpretations and images of HIVST devices were reported online.

RESULTS

Of 2093 MSM and 102 TGW, most were recruited through general interest and dating platforms. Over 50% were 18-29 years old, most identified as gay or bisexual. Overall, 45% had not tested for HIV in the past 12 months, and 9.1% of MSM reported a positive (reactive for HIV antibodies) HIVST result, with the highest percentage among Black MSM (11.5%). Dating platforms recruited higher percentages of MSM who recorded positive results compared with MSM from general interest platforms during the intervention period (11.9% vs 5.5% (P < 0.0001)), and MSM who had never tested for HIV reported a greater percentage of positive HIVST results compared with MSM who had been tested for HIV before enrollment (16.1% vs. 7.1%; P < 0.0001). MSM were able to correctly interpret and report HIVST results. Of TGW, 7% reported a positive HIVST result.

CONCLUSIONS

Internet dating and general interest platforms can be key to increasing awareness of infection among BMSM, HMSM, and TGW persons, including those who do not use existing HIV services.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04219878.

Epidemiology of Mpox Cases, and Tecovirimat and JYNNEOS Utilization, Alameda County, California, June-October 2022

CONTEXT

The 2022 United States mpox outbreak disproportionately affected racial and ethnic minority gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.

PROGRAM

We utilized surveillance data and vaccination registries to determine whether populations most impacted by mpox in Alameda County received JYNNEOS vaccines and tecovirimat (TPOXX) during June 1-October 31, 2022.

IMPLEMENTATION

Alameda County Public Health Department responded to the mpox epidemic through partnerships with local health care providers who serve communities disproportionately affected by mpox.

EVALUATION

During June 1-October 31, 2022, a total of 242 mpox cases were identified in Alameda County. Mpox incidence rates per 100 000 were highest among Black/African American (35.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.8-46.5) and Hispanic/Latinx (25.1; CI, 20.1-30.9) residents, compared to Asian (3.8; CI, 2.3-5.9) and White (10.5; CI, 7.7-13.9) residents. Most confirmed cases were identified as gay, lesbian, or same-gender-loving (134, 67.3%) and bisexual (31, 15.6%); 226 (93.8%) cases were male. Sixty-nine (28.5%) mpox patients received TPOXX. There were no statistically significant differences in demographic and clinical characteristics of mpox cases when compared by TPOXX receipt status. JYNNEOS vaccine was received by 8277 Alameda County residents. The largest proportion of vaccinees were White residents (40.2%). Administration rates per 100 000 men who have sex with men were lowest among Asian and Hispanic/Latinx individuals, at 8779 (CI, 8283-9296) and 14 953 (CI, 14 156-15 784), respectively. Black/African American and Hispanic/Latinx males had the lowest vaccination-to-case ratios at 16.7 and 14.8, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Mpox disproportionately affected Black/African American and Hispanic/Latinx men who have sex with men in Alameda County. Strong partnerships with local health care providers ensured that persons with mpox received TPOXX treatment when indicated. However, higher JYNNEOS vaccine uptake in Black and Latinx communities needs improvement through ongoing and meaningful engagement with Black/African American and Hispanic/Latinx gay, bisexual, and transgender communities.

"PrEP a double-edged sword": Integrating implementation science methodology with Photovoice to guide culturally-tailored pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programs for Latino/a and non-Latino/a men who have sex with men in South Florida

BACKGROUND

DiversiPrEP is a culturally-tailored PrEP program for LMSM offered in South Florida. DiversiPrEP navigates LMSM through their PrEP journey, including education, deciding if PrEP is relevant for them, payment, and accessing/maintaining PrEP use. DiversiPrEP includes five ERIC strategies (Increase Demand, Promote Adaptability, Alter Client Fees, Intervene with Clients to Enhance Uptake and Adherence, and Tailor Strategies).

DESCRIPTION

Photovoice was used to conduct five two-part focus groups with LMSM (n = 12) and Non-LMSM (n = 12). In the first session, trainers provided guidance on selecting and contextualizing photos to generate CFIR themes. Then, participants captured photos that embodied their lived experiences accessing PrEP. In the second session, using SHOWeD, participants discussed photos, identifiedhow photos relate to culturally relevant issues. Triangulation approaches compared/contrasted themes between LMSM and Non-LMSM.

RESULTS

Five central themes emerged around barriers and facilitators to PrEP services: 1) the need for normalizing PrEP messages within the MSM community, 2) the need for normalizing PrEP messages outside the MSM community, 3) the need for expanding PrEP knowledge, 4) different motivations for using PrEP, and 5) the presence of structural barriers that limit PrEP access. This study compared similarities and differences of barriers and facilitators to PrEP use between Latino/a and non-Latino/a MSM. Similarities included the built environment (outer setting) as a barrier, the need for normalizing PrEP messaging within and outside of the MSM community, and the need to expand PrEP knowledge. Differences between Latino/a and non-Latino/a MSM were found in assessing the motivation and personal drivers (inner setting) for initiating PrEP associated with how participants viewed their responsibilities to self or others.

CONCLUSIONS

Photovoice with focus groups identified CFIR constructs that can guide the large-scale implementation of a client-centered PrEP service model with telehealth for both Latino/a and non-Latino/a MSM. Implementing client-centered accessible PrEP programs is an essential step to promoting sexual-health equity.

Genomic epidemiology reveals 2022 mpox epidemic in New York City governed by heavy-tailed sexual contact networks

The global mpox epidemic in 2022 was likely caused by transmission of mpox virus (MPXV) through sexual contact networks, with New York City (NYC) experiencing the first and largest outbreak in the United States. By performing a phylogeographic and epidemiological analysis of MPXV, we identify at least 200 introductions of MPXV into NYC and 84 leading to onward transmission. Through a comparative analysis with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in NYC, we find that both MPXV and HIV genomic cluster sizes are best fit by scale-free distributions and that people in MPXV clusters are more likely to have previously received an HIV diagnosis (odds ratio=1.58; p=0.012) and be a member of a recently growing HIV transmission cluster, indicating overlapping sexual contact networks. We then model the transmission of MPXV through sexual contact networks and show that highly connected individuals would be disproportionately infected at the start of an epidemic, thereby likely resulting in the exhaustion of the most densely connected parts of the sexual network. This dynamic explains the rapid expansion and decline of the NYC outbreak, as well as the estimated cumulative incidence of less than 2% within high-risk populations. By synthesizing the genomic epidemiology of MPXV and HIV with epidemic modeling, we demonstrate that MPXV transmission dynamics can be understood by general principles of sexually transmitted pathogens.

Population Percentage and Population Size of Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States, 2017-2021: Meta-Analysis of 5 Population-Based Surveys

BACKGROUND

Male-to-male sexual transmission continues to account for the greatest proportion of new HIV diagnoses in the United States. However, calculating population-specific surveillance metrics for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections requires regularly updated estimates of the number and proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States, which are not collected by census surveys.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the number and percentage of MSM in the United States from population-based surveys.

METHODS

We used data from 5 population-based surveys to calculate weighted estimates of the proportion of MSM in the United States and pooled these estimates using meta-analytic procedures. We estimated the proportion of MSM using sexual behavior-based questions (encompassing anal or oral sex) for 3 recall periods-past 12 months, past 5 years, and lifetime. In addition, we estimated the proportion of MSM using self-reported identity and attraction survey responses. The total number of MSM and non-MSM in the United States were calculated from estimates of the percentage of MSM who reported sex with another man in the past 12 months.

RESULTS

The percentage of MSM varied by recall period: 3.3% (95% CI 1.7%-4.9%) indicated sex with another male in the past 12 months, 4.7% (95% CI 0.0%-33.8%) in the past 5 years, and 6.2% (95% CI 2.9%-9.5%) in their lifetime. There were comparable percentages of men who identified as gay or bisexual (3.4%, 95% CI 2.2%-4.6%) or who indicated that they are attracted to other men (4.9%, 95% CI 3.1%-6.7%) based on pooled estimates. Our estimate of the total number of MSM in the United States is 4,230,000 (95% CI 2,179,000-6,281,000) based on the history of recent sexual behavior (sex with another man in the past 12 months).

CONCLUSIONS

We calculated the pooled percentage and number of MSM in the United States from a meta-analysis of population-based surveys collected from 2017 to 2021. These estimates update and expand upon those derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2012 by including estimates of the percentage of MSM based on sexual identity and sexual attraction. The percentage and number of MSM in the United States is an important indicator for calculating population-specific disease rates and eligibility for preventive interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis.

Effectiveness and Safety of the MVA-BN Vaccine against Mpox in At-Risk Individuals in the United States (USMVAc)

The mpox 2022 outbreak was declared a public health emergency in July 2022. In August 2022, the MVA-BN vaccine received emergency use authorization in the United States (US) to target at-risk groups. This study (EUPAS104386) used HealthVerity's administrative US healthcare data to generate real-world evidence for MVA-BN vaccine effectiveness and safety to prevent mpox disease in men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women, the most affected population during the 2022 mpox outbreak. Fully vaccinated subjects (two doses ≥ 28 days apart) were initially matched with five unvaccinated subjects on calendar date, age, US region, and insurance type. Subjects were followed from index date (14 days after the second dose) until death or data end to ascertain mpox occurrence. After propensity score adjustment, the MVA-BN vaccine effectiveness against mpox disease was 89% (95% CI: 12%, 99%) among those fully vaccinated; attenuated to 64% (95% CI: 40%, 78%) among those with any dose and 70% (95% CI: 44%, 84%) for those with only a single dose. One pericarditis adverse event of special interest was observed when the risk window was extended to 28 days. These results contribute to the totality of evidence supporting the favorable benefit/risk profile of the MVA-BN vaccine.

Collecting a Sexual History During Shigellosis Case Investigations: Nationwide Practices and an Assessment of Data Quality

Shigellosis is spread through the fecal-oral route, including sexual activity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends collecting a sexual history from people diagnosed with shigellosis to enhance the understanding of its epidemiology and outbreak detection and the design of disease prevention messaging, although individual jurisdictions decide if and how this is done. Moreover, enteric disease interviewers typically receive in-depth general interviewing training, but often not sexual history question training. The goal of this project was to inform national practices around sexual history questions asked during shigellosis interviews by collecting information from U.S. state health agencies and evaluating sexual history data from people diagnosed with shigellosis in Colorado. From November 2021 to January 2022, information on sexual history questions asked of persons with reported shigellosis and accompanying training resources were collected from U.S. state health departments. Data completeness and quality of shigellosis sexual history questions from Colorado's notifiable disease database from 2018 to 2022 were also evaluated. Of 48 states, 54% reported routinely asking all adults about their sexual history during shigellosis interviews. Of 44 states, 18% indicated having accompanying training materials for interviewers. In Colorado, the proportion of unknown/missing responses to questions about recent sexual contact with male and female partners was lower for males (3.3% unknown and 3.3% missing) than females (5.4% and 6.2%) and highest among those 66 years and older (6.7% and 10%). Among those reporting new sexual partners, 93.5% indicated how they met. The evaluation of Colorado data demonstrates that routine collection of complete, high-quality, actionable sexual history data from all adults with reported shigellosis is feasible. Nearly half of the responding states indicated not doing so, and few had training resources. We recommend training enteric disease interviewers to routinely ask all adults with reported shigellosis about their sexual history, including new partner meeting location.

Developing an mHealth program to improve HIV care continuum outcomes among young Black gay and bisexual men

BACKGROUND

Young Black gay and bisexual men (YBGBM) in the United States face significant disparities in HIV care outcomes. Mobile health (mHealth) interventions have shown promise with improving outcomes for YBGBM across the HIV care continuum.

METHODS

We developed an mHealth application using human-centered design (HCD) from 2019-2021 in collaboration with YBGBM living with HIV and with HIV service providers. Our HCD process began with six focus groups with 50 YBGBM and interviews with 12 providers. These insights were used to inform rapid prototyping, which involved iterative testing and refining of program features and content, with 31 YBGBM and 12 providers. We then collected user feedback via an online survey with 200 YBGBM nationwide and usability testing of a functional prototype with 21 YBGBM.

RESULTS

Focus groups and interviews illuminated challenges faced by YBGBM living with HIV, including coping with an HIV diagnosis, stigma, need for social support, and a dearth of suitable information sources. YBGBM desired a holistic approach that could meet the needs of those newly diagnosed as well as those who have been living with HIV for many years. Program preferences included video-based content where users could learn from peers and experts, a range of topics, a community of people living with HIV, and tools to support their health and well-being. Providers expressed enthusiasm for an mHealth program to improve HIV care outcomes and help them serve clients. Rapid prototyping resulted in a list of content topics, resources, video characteristics, community features, and mHealth tools to support adherence, retention, goal setting, and laboratory results tracking, as well as tools to help organization staff to support clients. Online survey and usability testing confirmed the feasibility, acceptability, and usability of the content, tools, and features.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the potential of a video-based mHealth program to address the unique needs of YBGBM living with HIV, offering support and comprehensive information through a user-friendly interface and videos of peers living with HIV and of experts. The HCD approach allowed for continuous improvements to the concept to maximize cultural appropriateness, utility, and potential effectiveness for both YBGBM and HIV service organizations.

Establishment of a non-Westernized gut microbiota in men who have sex with men is associated with sexual practices

The human gut microbiota is influenced by various factors, including health status and environmental conditions, yet considerable inter-individual differences remain unexplained. Previous studies identified that the gut microbiota of men who have sex with men (MSM) is distinct from that of non-MSM. Here, we reveal through species-level microbiota analysis using shotgun metagenomics that the gut microbiota of many MSM with Western origin resembles gut microbial communities of non-Westernized populations. Specifically, MSM gut microbiomes are frequently dominated by members of the Prevotellaceae family, including co-colonization of species from the Segatella copri complex and unknown Prevotellaceae members. Questionnaire-based analysis exploring inter-individual differences in MSM links specific sexual practices to microbiota composition. Moreover, machine learning identifies microbial features associated with sexual activities in MSM. Together, this study shows associations of sexual activities with gut microbiome alterations in MSM, which may have a large impact on population-based microbiota studies.

Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

Dynamics of a two-group model for assessing the impacts of pre-exposure prophylaxis, testing and risk behaviour change on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM population

Although much progress has been made in reducing the public health burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), since its emergence in the 1980s (largely due to the large-scale use and availability of potent antiviral therapy, improved diagnostic and intervention and mitigation measures), HIV remains an important public health challenge globally, including in the United States. This study is based on the use of mathematical modeling approaches to assess the population-level impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), voluntary testing (to detect undetected HIV-infected individuals), and changes in human behavior (with respect to risk structure), on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM (men-who-have sex-with-men) population. Specifically, a novel two-group mathematical model, which stratifies the total MSM population based on risk (low or high) of acquisition of HIV infection, is formulated. The model undergoes a PrEP-induced backward bifurcation when the control reproduction number of the model is less than one if the efficacy of PrEP to prevent a high-risk susceptible MSM individual from acquiring HIV infection is not perfect (the consequence of which is that, while necessary, having the reproduction number of the model less than one is no longer sufficient for the elimination of the disease in the MSM population). For the case where the efficacy of PrEP is perfect, this study shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the two-group model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated control reproduction number of the model is less than one. Global sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify the main parameters of the model that have the highest influence on the value of the control reproduction number of the model (thereby, having the highest influence on the disease burden in the MSM population). Numerical simulations of the model, using a plausible range of parameter values, show that if half of the MSM population considered adhere strictly to the specified PrEP regimen (while other interventions are maintained at their baseline values), a reduction of about 22% of the new yearly HIV cases recorded at the peak of the disease could be averted (compared to the worst-case scenario where PrEP-based intervention is not implemented in the MSM population). The yearly reduction at the peak increases to about 50% if the PrEP coverage in the MSM population increases to 80%. This study showed, based on the parameter values used in the simulations, that the prospects of elimination of HIV/AIDS in the MSM community are promising if high-risk susceptible individuals are no more than 15% more likely to acquire HIV infection, in comparison to their low-risk counterparts. Furthermore, these prospects are significantly improved if undetected HIV-infected individuals are detected within an optimal period of time.

The risk of mpox importation and subsequent outbreak potential in Chinese mainland: a retrospective statistical modelling study

BACKGROUND

The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region, mainly among men who have sex with men (MSM). In this study, we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk, border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.

METHODS

We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11, 2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide. We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement. And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men, considering different transmissibility, population immunity and population activity.

RESULTS

We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively. Under the quarantine policy, 15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected. Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity, the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%, and would rise to > 95% with over six cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently. However, the risk could be substantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level. Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.

Modelling the impact of vaccination and sexual behaviour adaptations on mpox cases in the USA during the 2022 outbreak

BACKGROUND

The 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts.

METHODS

We fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation.

RESULTS

We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion.

Daily Oral HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: Cost-saving at Generic Drug Price

BACKGROUND

Adherence and retention concerns raise questions about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in young men who have sex with men (YMSM).

METHODS

Using an adolescent-focused simulation model, we compared annual HIV screening alone with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine-based oral PrEP with every 3-month HIV screening in YMSM (aged 15-24) at increased risk of HIV. Data derived from published sources included: age-stratified HIV incidence/100 person-years (PY) on- or off-PrEP (0.6-10.1 or 0.4-6.4), PrEP retention at 6 years (28%), transmissions by HIV RNA level (0.0-78.4/100PY) and annual costs of antiretroviral therapy ($32 000-69 000), HIV care ($3100-34 600), and PrEP program/generic drug ($900/360). Outcomes included transmissions (percent of cohort infected), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs ($), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ($/QALY). We explored the sensitivity of findings to variation in HIV incidence and drug prices.

RESULTS

Compared with annual screening alone, PrEP would increase QALYs (9.58 to 9.67), reduce new infections (37% to 30%), and decrease costs (by $5000) over 10 years. PrEP would remain cost-saving for HIV incidence off-PrEP ≥5.1/100PY or annual PrEP price ≤$1200. Over a lifetime horizon, PrEP would be cost-saving for HIV incidence off-PrEP ≥1.0/100PY, across all retention assumptions examined. PrEP would not be cost-effective at HIV incidence ≤0.1/100PY, regardless of drug price, due to programmatic costs.

CONCLUSIONS

In US YMSM at increased risk of HIV, generic oral PrEP and every-3-month screening would be cost-saving compared with annual screening alone, even with high discontinuation and low adherence, over a range of HIV incidences.

Potential contribution of PrEP uptake by adolescents 15-17 years old to achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic" incidence reduction goals in the US South

BACKGROUND

The "Ending the HIV Epidemic" (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce new HIV infections in the U.S. by prioritizing federal resources towards highly impacted populations. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are essential for reaching EHE goals. Adolescents are often at increased risk for HIV because they may lack agency in negotiating their sexual partnerships and may not have the same access to treatment and prevention as adults. This study estimates the potential contribution of expanded PrEP coverage among adolescents ages 15-17 to achieving the EHE goals in the South.

METHODS

An HIV-transmission model was built to simulate the HIV epidemic in the South. Increased ART and PrEP uptake were systematically varied with and without PrEP eligibility including individuals age<18.

RESULTS

Prioritizing PrEP for adolescents had a negligible impact on incidence. At 50% uptake among eligible adolescents and 90% ART coverage, including adolescents only improved the percentage of infections averted from 80.1% to 80.3%. In 10 of 15 scenarios explored, there was no reduction in new infections when PrEP eligibility was expanded to include adolescents age<18. At 95% ART coverage at the population-level incidence among adolescents declined by over 80%, but PrEP uptake among adolescents did not contribute to additional declines in incidence among adolescents.

CONCLUSIONS

Prioritizing PrEP for adolescents did not significantly contribute to reaching EHE incidence reductions goal. Focusing resources to specific adolescent populations at risk, such sexual minority males in high incidence settings, will remain an important public health goal outside the context of EHE.

Extension of the Segatella copri complex to 13 species with distinct large extrachromosomal elements and associations with host conditions

The Segatella copri (formerly Prevotella copri) complex (ScC) comprises taxa that are key members of the human gut microbiome. It was previously described to contain four distinct phylogenetic clades. Combining targeted isolation with large-scale metagenomic analysis, we defined 13 distinct Segatella copri-related species, expanding the ScC complex beyond four clades. Complete genome reconstruction of thirteen strains from seven species unveiled the presence of genetically diverse large circular extrachromosomal elements. These elements are consistently present in most ScC species, contributing to intra- and inter-species diversities. The nine species-level clades present in humans display striking differences in prevalence and intra-species genetic makeup across human populations. Based on a meta-analysis, we found reproducible associations between members of ScC and the male sex and positive correlations with lower visceral fat and favorable markers of cardiometabolic health. Our work uncovers genomic diversity within ScC, facilitating a better characterization of the human microbiome.

Joint modeling HIV and HPV using a new hybrid agent-based network and compartmental simulation technique

Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have a disproportionately higher burden of human papillomavirus infection (HPV)-related cancers. Causal factors include both behavioral and biological. While pharmaceutical and care support interventions help address biological risk of coinfection, as social conditions are common drivers of behaviors, structural interventions are key part of behavioral interventions. Our objective is to develop a joint HIV-HPV model to evaluate the contribution of each factor, to subsequently inform intervention analyses. While compartmental modeling is sufficient for faster spreading HPV, network modeling is suitable for slower spreading HIV. However, using network modeling for jointly modeling HIV and HPV can generate computational complexities given their vastly varying disease epidemiology and disease burden across sub-population groups. We applied a recently developed mixed agent-based compartmental (MAC) simulation technique, which simulates persons with at least one slower spreading disease and their immediate contacts as agents in a network, and all other persons including those with faster spreading diseases in a compartmental model, with an evolving contact network algorithm maintaining the dynamics between the two models. We simulated HIV and HPV in the U.S. among heterosexual female, heterosexual male, and men who have sex with men (men only and men and women) (MSM), sub-populations that mix but have varying HIV burden, and cervical cancer among women. We conducted numerical analyses to evaluate the contribution of behavioral and biological factors to risk of cervical cancer among women with HIV. The model outputs for HIV, HPV, and cervical cancer compared well with surveillance estimates. Model estimates for relative prevalence of HPV (1.67 times) and relative incidence of cervical cancer (3.6 times), among women with HIV compared to women without, were also similar to that reported in observational studies in the literature. The fraction attributed to biological factors ranged from 22-38% for increased HPV prevalence and 80% for increased cervical cancer incidence, the remaining attributed to behavioral. The attribution of both behavioral and biological factors to increased HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence suggest the need for behavioral, structural, and pharmaceutical interventions. Validity of model results related to both individual and joint disease metrics serves as proof-of-concept of the MAC simulation technique. Understanding the contribution of behavioral and biological factors of risk helps inform interventions. Future work can expand the model to simulate sexual and care behaviors as functions of social conditions to jointly evaluate behavioral, structural, and pharmaceutical interventions for HIV and cervical cancer prevention.

The impact of multiple-behavior HIV interventions as a function of regional disadvantages: An analysis of syndemics

OBJECTIVE

Disadvantaged populations, including inhabitants of developing countries as well as racial/ethnic and sexual minorities in the United States, are disproportionally burdened by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, delayed HIV diagnosis, and unfavorable HIV-treatment outcomes. HIV interventions targeting single behaviors (e.g., testing) in these populations have shown to be efficacious at producing behavioral and clinical change but have been unable to eliminate the social health disparities associated with syndemics (i.e., a set of connected risks, interacting synergistically, and contributing to excess burden of disease in a population).

METHOD

This meta-analysis of 331 reports (clusters; number of effect sizes [k] = 1,364) assessed whether multiple-behavior interventions that target clusters of syndemic risks are more efficacious for those in disadvantaged regions and social groups.

RESULTS

Across the board, multiple-behavior interventions were more efficacious than single-behavior ones as well as passive control groups among samples from countries with lower log gross domestic product (GDP), lower Human Development Index (HDI), and lower Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index.

CONCLUSIONS

Within the United States, the efficacy of multiple-behavior interventions was similar across different levels of representation of racial/ethnic and sexual minorities. The analyses used robust variance estimation with small-sample corrections to assess the differential effects of multiple-behavior interventions and Egger Sandwich test with the multilevel meta-analysis approach to detect selection biases. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Perspectives of a peer-driven approach to improve pre-exposure prophylaxis and HIV prevention among Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

Black/African American (B/AA) and Hispanic/Latino (H/L) men who have sex with men (MSM) are significantly less likely than white MSM to initiate pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). A peer-driven intervention (PDI) may be an effective approach to addressing this disparity. In this study, we explored community member perspectives of a PDI to promote PrEP uptake among B/AA and H/L MSM.

METHODS

We conducted semi-structured interviews with B/AA and H/L HIV-negative MSM between August 2018 and October 2019 in Rhode Island, USA. Participants reported their perspectives and recommendations for a PDI. Data from participant responses were thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Of 15 MSM, the median age was 25years (interquartile range: 22, 33). The majority identified as B/AA (53.3%), H/L (66.7%), and having a college education or above (53.3%). Most participants viewed a PDI positively and were willing to learn and promote PrEP among their peers. Participants identified and supported several potential intervention components, such as education about the benefit of PrEP, emphasising prevention-effective dosing, and clarifying no prevention effect towards other sexually transmitted infections. They preferred in-person meetings to electronic communication. Preferred characteristics of peer educators included compassion, good communication skills, and enthusiasm about PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

This in-depth qualitative interview suggested that a PDI approach is promising in promoting PrEP uptake, as it could deliver culturally appropriate education and encourage PrEP uptake via peer influence among B/AA and H/L MSM.

A description of Kaposi sarcoma risk factors and outcomes in HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients at a tertiary care medical center from 2005 to 2020

Kaposi sarcoma (KS) is a low-grade vascular malignancy caused by human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8), also known as Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV). There are four established subtypes of KS, which are described by unique risk factors, presentation, and disease course. A "non-epidemic" variant to describe HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) is emerging as a fifth subtype. We retrospectively examined patients with KS at an academic medical center in central Ohio, USA. To our knowledge, this is the first US-based report to describe KS risk factors and outcomes in the context of HIV status. Data were extracted from patient charts including demographic information, history at time of KS diagnosis, and information about KS disease course. HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients were grouped into established categories. HIV-negative patients who did not fit an existing subtype were described as "Unclassified-KS-Type." Demographic characteristics for AIDS-KS patients in our cohort match established trends in this subtype, such as male, MSM, and younger age at diagnosis compared to HIV-negative patients. Most Unclassified-KS-Type patients fit well into the emerging "non-epidemic KS" subtype. These patients are described as healthy, middle-aged, HIV-negative MSM with lower extremity lesions. This descriptive report provides an updated view of KS risk factors and outcomes to improve detection and treatment in dermatology.

Human Papillomavirus-Associated Anal Cancer Incidence and Burden Among US Men, According to Sexual Orientation, Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, and Age

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) without HIV are known to be at elevated relative risk for Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated anal cancer in comparison to men who have sex with women (MSW), but are poorly characterized in terms of anal cancer incidence due to absence of reporting of sexual behavior/identity at a population-level.

METHODS

By combining age-specific statistics from multiple data sources (anal cancer incidence among all males; anal cancer incidence among MSM and MSW with HIV; population size of men with HIV by sexual orientation), we developed a mathematical model to estimate anal cancer incidence, annual number of cases, and proportion by (a) sexual orientation (MSM versus MSW), (b) HIV status, and (c) age (<30, 30-44, 45-59, and ≥60 years).

RESULTS

Anal cancer incidence (per 100 000) among MSM without HIV was 1.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.6 to 2.3), 17.6 (95% UI = 13.8-23.5), and 33.9 (95% UI = 28.3-42.3), at ages 30-44, 45-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. 19.1% of all male anal cancer occurred in MSM without HIV, increasing from 4% of anal cancer diagnosed at 30-44 years to 24% at ≥60 years; 54.3% occurred in MSW without HIV (increasing from 13% at age 30-44 to 67% at >60 years), and the remaining 26.6% in men (MSM and MSW combined) with HIV (decreasing from 83% at age 30-44 to 9% at >60 years).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings should inform anal cancer prevention recommendations in male risk groups, including, for the first time, for the important group of MSM without HIV.

A spatio-temporal hierarchical model to account for temporal misalignment in American Community Survey explanatory variables

The American Community Survey (ACS) is one of the most vital public sources for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of communities in the United States and is administered by the U.S. Census Bureau every year. The ACS publishes 5-year estimates of community characteristics for all geographical areas and 1-year estimates for areas with population of at least 65,000. Many epidemiological and public health studies use 5-year ACS estimates as explanatory variables in models. However, doing so ignores the uncertainty and averages over variability during the time-period which may lead to biased estimates of covariate effects of interest. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the uncertainty and disentangles the temporal misalignment in the ACS multi-year time-period estimates. We show via simulation that our proposed model more accurately recovers covariate effects compared to models that ignore the temporal misalignment. Lastly, we implement our proposed model to quantify the relationship between yearly, county-level characteristics and the prevalence of frequent mental distress for counties in North Carolina from 2014 to 2018.

Prostate Cancer in Sexual Minorities: Epidemiology, Screening and Diagnosis, Treatment, and Quality of Life

Prostate cancer has the highest incidence among all cancers in men. Sexual minorities, including gay and bisexual men, as well as transgender, were previously a "hidden population" that experienced prostate cancer. Although there continues to remain a paucity of data in this population, analyses from studies do not reveal whether this population is more likely to endure prostate cancer. Nonetheless, several qualitative and quantitative studies have established worse quality-of-life outcomes for sexual minorities following prostate cancer treatment. Increased awareness of this previously "hidden population" among healthcare workers, as well as more research, is warranted to gain further understanding on potential disparities faced by this growing population.

Achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." incidence reduction goals among at-risk populations in the South

INTRODUCTION

Antiretroviral medication coverage remains sub-optimal in much of the United States, particularly the Sothern region, and Non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (NHB) continue to be disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic. The "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce HIV incidence nationally by focusing resources towards the most highly impacted localities and populations. This study evaluates the impact of hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage to estimate the levels of coverage needed to achieve EHE goals in the South.

METHODS

We developed a stochastic, agent-based network model of 500,000 individuals to simulate the HIV epidemic and hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage.

RESULTS

New infections declined by 78.6% at 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 94.3% at 100%/50% ART/PrEP. Declines in annual incidence rates surpassed 75% by 2025 with 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 90% by 2030 with 100%/50% ART/PrEP coverage. Increased ART coverage among NHB MSM was associated with a linear decline in incidence among all MSM. Declines in incidence among Hispanic/Latino and White/Other MSM were similar regardless of which MSM race group increased their ART coverage, while the benefit to NHB MSM was greatest when their own ART coverage increased. The incidence rate among NHB women declined by over a third when either NHB heterosexual men or NHB MSM increased their ART use respectively. Increased use of PrEP was associated with a decline in incidence for the groups using PrEP. MSM experienced the largest absolute declines in incidence with increasing PrEP coverage, followed by NHB women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicates that it is possible to reach EHE goals. The largest reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved by increasing ART coverage among MSM and all race groups benefit regardless of differences in ART initiation by race. Improving ART coverage to > 90% should be prioritized with a particular emphasis on reaching NHB MSM. Such a focus will reduce the largest number of incident cases, reduce racial HIV incidence disparities among both MSM and women, and reduce racial health disparities among persons with HIV. NHB women should also be prioritized for PrEP outreach.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Mpox Cases and Vaccination Among Adult Males - United States, May-December 2022

As of December 31, 2022, a total of 29,939 monkeypox (mpox) cases* had been reported in the United States, 93.3% of which occurred in adult males. During May 10-December 31, 2022, 723,112 persons in the United States received the first dose in a 2-dose mpox (JYNNEOS)^† vaccination series; 89.7% of these doses were administered to males (1). The current mpox outbreak has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and racial and ethnic minority groups (1,2). To examine racial and ethnic disparities in mpox incidence and vaccination rates, rate ratios (RRs) for incidence and vaccination rates and vaccination-to-case ratios were calculated, and trends in these measures were assessed among males aged ≥18 years (males) (3). Incidence in males in all racial and ethnic minority groups except non-Hispanic Asian (Asian) males was higher than that among non-Hispanic White (White) males. At the peak of the outbreak in August 2022, incidences among non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) and Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) males were higher than incidence among White males (RR = 6.9 and 4.1, respectively). Overall, vaccination rates were higher among males in racial and ethnic minority groups than among White males. However, the vaccination-to-case ratio was lower among Black (8.8) and Hispanic (16.2) males than among White males (42.5) during the full analytic period, indicating that vaccination rates among Black and Hispanic males were not proportionate to the elevated incidence rates (i.e., these groups had a higher unmet vaccination need). Efforts to increase vaccination among Black and Hispanic males might have resulted in the observed relative increased rates of vaccination; however, these increases were only partially successful in reducing overall incidence disparities. Continued implementation of equity-based vaccination strategies is needed to further increase vaccination rates and reduce the incidence of mpox among all racial and ethnic groups. Recent modeling data (4) showing that, based on current vaccination coverage levels, many U.S. jurisdictions are vulnerable to resurgent mpox outbreaks, underscore the need for continued vaccination efforts, particularly among racial and ethnic minority groups.

Perceptions and Experiences of Returning Self-collected Specimens for HIV, Bacterial STI and Potential PrEP Adherence Testing among Sexual Minority Men in the United States

Few studies among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) have examined facilitators and barriers to self-collecting specimens for extragenital STI screening, and none have evaluated attitudes towards self-collecting hair samples that can be utilized for PrEP drug level testing to assess adherence. To address this gap, we interviewed 25 sexually active GBMSM who were offered a choice to self-collect and return finger-stick blood samples (for actual HIV testing), pharyngeal swabs, rectal swabs and urine specimens (for actual gonorrhea and chlamydia testing), and hair samples (to visually determine their adequacy for PrEP drug level testing): 11 who returned all, 4 who returned some, and 10 who did not return any. Participants found self-collecting finger-stick blood samples and rectal swabs more challenging than other specimens. Frequently discussed facilitators of return included an opportunity to confirm one's HIV or STI status, limited access to a healthcare provider and a desire to advance research focusing on home-based testing. Commonly cited barriers to return included low self-efficacy pertaining to self-collection and apprehension around the possibility of delay or loss of specimens during transit. Offering additional support such as real-time video conferencing may prove helpful in future field-based research with GBMSM.

Keep It Up! 3.0: Study protocol for a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Despite evidence that eHealth approaches can be effective in reducing HIV risk, their implementation requirements for public health scale up are not well established, and effective strategies to bring these programs into practice are still unknown. Keep It Up! (KIU!) is an online program proven to reduce HIV risk among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and ideal candidate to develop and evaluate novel strategies for implementing eHealth HIV prevention programs. KIU! 3.0 is a Type III Hybrid Effectiveness-Implementation cluster randomized trial designed to 1) compare two strategies for implementing KIU!: community-based organizations (CBO) versus centralized direct-to-consumer (DTC) recruitment; 2) examine the effect of strategies and determinants on variability in implementation success; and 3) develop materials for sustainment of KIU! after the trial concludes. In this article, we describe the approaches used to achieve these aims.

METHODS

Using county-level population estimates of YMSM, 66 counties were selected and randomized 2:1 to the CBO and DTC approaches. The RE-AIM model was used to drive outcome measurements, which were collected from CBO staff, YMSM, and technology providers. Mixed-methods research mapped onto the domains of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will examine determinants and their relationship with implementation outcomes.

DISCUSSION

In comparing our implementation recruitment models, we are examining two strategies which have shown effectiveness in delivering health technology interventions in the past, yet little is known about their comparative advantages and disadvantages in implementation. The results of the trial will further the understanding of eHealth prevention intervention implementation.

State Variation in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anus Incidence and Mortality, and Association With HIV/AIDS and Smoking in the United States

PURPOSE

Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence and mortality rates are rising in the United States. Understanding state-level incidence and mortality patterns and associations with smoking and AIDS prevalence (key risk factors) could help unravel disparities and provide etiologic clues.

METHODS

Using the US Cancer Statistics and the National Center for Health Statistics data sets, we estimated state-level SCCA incidence and mortality rates. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated to compare incidence and mortality in 2014-2018 versus 2001-2005. The correlations between SCCA incidence with current smoking (from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System) and AIDS (from the HIV Surveillance system) prevalence were evaluated using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Nationally, SCCA incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) increased among men (incidence, 2.29-3.36, mortality, 0.46-0.74) and women (incidence, 3.88-6.30, mortality, 0.65-1.02) age ≥ 50 years, but decreased among men age < 50 years and were stable among similar-aged women. In state-level analysis, a marked increase in incidence (≥ 1.5-fold for men and ≥ two-fold for women) and mortality (≥ two-fold) for persons age ≥ 50 years was largely concentrated in the Midwestern and Southeastern states. State-level SCCA incidence rates in recent years (2014-2018) among men were correlated (r = 0.47, P < .001) with state-level AIDS prevalence patterns. For women, a correlation was observed between state-level SCCA incidence rates and smoking prevalence (r = 0.49, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

During 2001-2005 to 2014-2018, SCCA incidence and mortality nearly doubled among men and women age ≥ 50 years living in Midwest and Southeast. State variation in AIDS and smoking patterns may explain variation in SCCA incidence. Improved and targeted prevention is needed to combat the rise in SCCA incidence and mitigate magnifying geographic disparities.

Estimated Number of Incident HIV Infections in Men Who Have Sex With Men Attributable to Gonorrhea and Chlamydia, Per Gonococcal or Chlamydial Infection, in the United States

Using a network model, we simulated transmission of HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia among men who have sex with men to estimate the number of HIV infections that can be attributed to gonorrhea and chlamydia, per gonococcal and chlamydial infection. This metric can inform future modeling and health economic studies.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning.

METHODS

We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results.

RESULTS

We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

It Is Not Just the Southeast-Geographically Pervasive Racial Disparities in Neisseria gonorrhoeae Between Non-Hispanic Black and White US Women

Background:

Spatial analyses of gonorrhea morbidity among females often highlight the southeastern US but may not provide information on geographic variation in the magnitude of racial disparities; such maps also focus on geographic space, obscuring underlying population characteristics. We created a series of visualizations depicting both county-level racial disparities in female gonorrhea diagnoses and variations in population size.

Methods:

We calculated county- and region-level race-specific relative rates (RelR) and between-race rate differences (RD) and rate ratios (RR) comparing gonorrhea case rates in non-Hispanic Black (NHB) vs non-Hispanic White (NHW) females. We then created proportional symbol maps with color representing counties’ RelR/RD/RR category and symbol size representing counties’ female population.

Results:

Gonorrhea rates among NHB females were highest in the Midwest (718.7/100,000) and West (504.8), rates among NHW females were highest in the West (74.1) and Southeast (72.1). RDs were highest in the Midwest (654.6 excess cases/100,000) and West (430.7), while RRs were highest in the Northeast (12.4) and Midwest (11.2). Nearly all US counties had NHB female rates ≥3x those in NHW females, with NHB females in most highly populated counties experiencing ≥9-fold difference in gonorrhea rates.

Conclusions:

Racial disparities in gonorrhea were not confined to the Southeast; both relative and absolute disparities were equivalent or larger in magnitude in areas of the Northeast, Midwest, and West. Our findings help counter damaging regional stereotypes, provide evidence to refocus prevention efforts to areas of highest disparities, and suggest a useful template for monitoring racial disparities as an actionable public health metric.

Racial disparities in female gonorrhea rates are not confined to the Southeast; both relative and absolute disparities are equivalent or larger in areas of the Northeast, Midwest, and West.

Engaging Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men for HIV Testing and Prevention Services Through Technology: Protocol for the iSTAMP Comparative Effectiveness Trial

BACKGROUND

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), particularly Black or African American MSM (BMSM) and Hispanic or Latino MSM (HLMSM), continue to be disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic in the United States. Previous HIV self-testing programs have yielded high testing rates, although these studies predominantly enrolled White, non-Hispanic MSM. Mobile health tools can support HIV prevention, testing, and treatment. This protocol details an implementation study of mailing free HIV self-tests (HIVSTs) nested within a randomized controlled trial designed to assess the benefit of a mobile phone app for increasing the uptake of HIV prevention and other social services.

OBJECTIVE

This study was a comparative effectiveness trial of innovative recruitment and testing promotion strategies intended to effectively reach cisgender BMSM and HLMSM. We evaluated the use of a mobile app for increasing access to care.

METHODS

Study development began with individual and group consultations that elicited feedback from 3 core groups: HIV care practitioners and researchers, HIV service organization leaders from study states, and BMSM and HLMSM living in the study states. Upon completion of the formative qualitative work, participants from 11 states, based on the observed areas of highest rate of new HIV diagnoses among Black and Hispanic MSM, were recruited through social networking websites and smartphone apps. After eligibility was verified, participants consented and were randomized to the intervention arm (access to the Know@Home mobile app) or the control arm (referral to web resources). We provided all participants with HIVSTs. The evaluation of the efficacy of a mobile phone app to support linkage to posttest prevention services that included sexually transmitted infection testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis initiation, antiretroviral treatment, and acquisition of condoms and compatible lubricants has been planned. Data on these outcomes were obtained from several sources, including HIVST-reporting surveys, the 4-month follow-up survey, laboratory analyses of dried blood spot cards returned by the participant, and data obtained from the state health department surveillance systems. Where possible, relevant subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

During the formative development phase, 9 consultations were conducted: 6 in-depth individual discussions and 3 group consultations. From February 2020 through February 2021, we enrolled 2093 MSM in the randomized controlled trial from 11 states, 1149 BMSM and 944 HLMSM.

CONCLUSIONS

This study was designed and implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of recruitment strategies to reach BMSM and HMSM and of a mobile app with regard to linkage to HIV prevention or treatment services. Data were also obtained to allow for the analyses of cost and cost-effectiveness related to study enrollment, HIV testing uptake, identification of previously undiagnosed HIV, sexually transmitted infection testing and treatment, and linkage to HIV prevention or treatment services.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04219878); https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04219878.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/43414.

The Role of HIV Partner Services in the Modern Biomedical HIV Prevention Era: A Network Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

HIV partner services can accelerate the use of antiretroviral-based HIV prevention tools (antiretroviral therapy [ART] and preexposure prophylaxis [PrEP]), but its population impact on long-term HIV incidence reduction is challenging to quantify with traditional partner services metrics of partner identified or HIV screened. Understanding the role of partner services within the portfolio of HIV prevention interventions, including using it to efficiently deliver antiretrovirals, is needed to achieve HIV prevention targets.

METHODS

We used a stochastic network model of HIV/sexually transmitted infection transmission for men who have sex with men, calibrated to surveillance-based estimates in the Atlanta area, a jurisdiction with high HIV burden and suboptimal partner services uptake. Model scenarios varied successful delivery of partner services cascade steps (newly diagnosed "index" patient and partner identification, partner HIV screening, and linkage or reengagement of partners in PrEP or ART care) individually and jointly.

RESULTS

At current levels observed in Atlanta, removal of HIV partner services had minimal impact on 10-year cumulative HIV incidence, as did improving a single partner services step while holding the others constant. These changes did not sufficiently impact overall PrEP or ART coverage to reduce HIV transmission. If all index patients and partners were identified, maximizing partner HIV screening, partner PrEP provision, partner ART linkage, and partner ART reengagement would avert 6%, 11%, 5%, and 18% of infections, respectively. Realistic improvements in partner identification and service delivery were estimated to avert 2% to 8% of infections, depending on the combination of improvements.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving optimal HIV prevention with partner services depends on pairing improvements in index patient and partner identification with maximal delivery of HIV screening, ART, and PrEP to partners if indicated. Improving the identification steps without improvement to antiretroviral service delivery steps, or vice versa, is projected to result in negligible population HIV prevention benefit.

Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence by 90% by 2030, by first focusing interventions on 57 regions (EHE jurisdictions) that contributed to more than 50% of annual HIV diagnoses. Mathematical models that project HIV incidence evaluate the impact of interventions and inform intervention decisions. However, current models are either national level, which do not consider jurisdictional heterogeneity, or independent jurisdiction-specific, which do not consider cross jurisdictional interactions. Data suggests that a significant proportion of persons have sexual partnerships outside their own jurisdiction. However, the sensitivity of these jurisdictional interactions on model outcomes and intervention decisions hasn't been studied.

METHODS

We developed an ordinary differential equations based compartmental model to generate national-level projections of HIV in the U.S., through dynamic simulations of 96 epidemiological sub-models representing 54 EHE and 42 non-EHE jurisdictions. A Bernoulli equation modeled HIV-transmissions using a mixing matrix to simulate sexual partnerships within and outside jurisdictions. To evaluate sensitivity of jurisdictional interactions on model outputs, we analyzed 16 scenarios, combinations of a) proportion of sexual partnerships mixing outside jurisdiction: no-mixing, low-level-mixing-within-state, high-level-mixing-within-state, or high-level-mixing-within-and-outside-state; b) jurisdictional heterogeneity in care and demographics: homogenous or heterogeneous; and c) intervention assumptions for 2019-2030: baseline or EHE-plan (diagnose, treat, and prevent).

RESULTS

Change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios varied by EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions and aggregation-level. When assuming jurisdictional heterogeneity and baseline-intervention, the change in aggregated incidence ranged from - 2 to 0% for EHE and 5 to 21% for non-EHE, but within each jurisdiction it ranged from - 31 to 46% for EHE and - 18 to 109% for non-EHE. Thus, incidence estimates were sensitive to jurisdictional mixing more at the jurisdictional level. As a result, jurisdiction-specific HIV-testing intervals inferred from the model to achieve the EHE-plan were also sensitive, e.g., when no-mixing scenarios suggested testing every 1 year (or 3 years), the three mixing-levels suggested testing every 0.8 to 1.2 years, 0.6 to 1.5 years, and 0.6 to 1.5 years, respectively (or 2.6 to 3.5 years, 2 to 4.8 years, and 2.2 to 4.1 years, respectively). Similar patterns were observed when assuming jurisdictional homogeneity, however, change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios were high even in aggregated incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting jurisdictional mixing and heterogeneity could improve model-based analyses.

Spillover benefit of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: evaluating the importance of effect modification using an agent-based model

We developed an agent-based model using a trial emulation approach to quantify effect measure modification of spillover effects of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metropolitan area, Georgia. PrEP may impact not only the individual prescribed, but also their partners and beyond, known as spillover. We simulated a two-stage randomised trial with eligible components (≥3 agents with ≥1 HIV+ agent) first randomised to intervention or control (no PrEP). Within intervention components, agents were randomised to PrEP with coverage of 70%, providing insight into a high PrEP coverage strategy. We evaluated effect modification by component-level characteristics and estimated spillover effects on HIV incidence using an extension of randomisation-based estimators. We observed an attenuation of the spillover effect when agents were in components with a higher prevalence of either drug use or bridging potential (if an agent acts as a mediator between ≥2 connected groups of agents). The estimated spillover effects were larger in magnitude among components with either higher HIV prevalence or greater density (number of existing partnerships compared to all possible partnerships). Consideration of effect modification is important when evaluating the spillover of PrEP among MSM.

Agent-based model projections for reducing HIV infection among MSM: Prevention and care pathways to end the HIV epidemic in Chicago, Illinois

Our objective is to improve local decision-making for strategies to end the HIV epidemic using the newly developed Levers of HIV agent-based model (ABM). Agent-based models use computer simulations that incorporate heterogeneity in individual behaviors and interactions, allow emergence of systemic behaviors, and extrapolate into the future. The Levers of HIV model (LHM) uses Chicago neighborhood demographics, data on sex-risk behaviors and sexual networks, and data on the prevention and care cascades, to model local dynamics. It models the impact of changes in local preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) (ie, levers) for meeting Illinois' goal of "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) -reducing by 90% new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) by 2030. We simulate a 15-year period (2016-2030) for 2304 distinct scenarios based on 6 levers related to HIV treatment and prevention: (1) linkage to PrEP for those testing negative, (2) linkage to ART for those living with HIV, (3) adherence to PrEP, (4) viral suppression by means of ART, (5) PrEP retention, and (6) ART retention. Using tree-based methods, we identify the best scenarios at achieving a 90% HIV infection reduction by 2030. The optimal scenario consisted of the highest levels of ART retention and PrEP adherence, next to highest levels of PrEP retention, and moderate levels of PrEP linkage, achieved 90% reduction by 2030 in 58% of simulations. We used Bayesian posterior predictive distributions based on our simulated results to determine the likelihood of attaining 90% HIV infection reduction using the most recent Chicago Department of Public Health surveillance data and found that projections of the current rate of decline (2016-2019) would not achieve the 90% (p = 0.0006) reduction target for 2030. Our results suggest that increases are needed at all steps of the PrEP cascade, combined with increases in retention in HIV care, to approach 90% reduction in new HIV diagnoses by 2030. These findings show how simulation modeling with local data can guide policy makers to identify and invest in efficient care models to achieve long-term local goals of ending the HIV epidemic.

Modeling HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs (PWID) at the "End of the HIV Epidemic" and during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

We explore injecting risk and HIV incidence among PWID in New York City (NYC), from 2012 to 2019, when incidence was extremely low, <0.1/100 person-years at risk, and during disruption of prevention services due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We developed an Agent-Based model (ABM) to simulate sharing injecting equipment and measure HIV incidence in NYC. The model was adapted from a previous ABM model developed to compare HIV transmission with "high" versus "low" dead space syringes. Data for applying the model to NYC during the period of very low HIV incidence was taken from the "Risk Factors" study, a long-running study of participants entering substance use treatment in NYC. Injecting risk behavior had not been eliminated in this population, with approximately 15 % reported recent syringe sharing. Data for possible transmission during COVID-19 disruption was taken from previous HIV outbreaks and early studies of the pandemic in NYC.

RESULTS

The modeled incidence rates fell within the 95 % confidence bounds of all of the empirically observed incidence rates, without any additional calibration of the model. Potential COVID-19 disruptions increased the probability of an outbreak from 0.03 to 0.25.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary factors in the very low HIV incidence were the extremely small numbers of PWID likely to transmit HIV and that most sharing occurs within small, relatively stable, mostly seroconcordant groups. Containing an HIV outbreak among PWID during a continuing pandemic would be quite difficult. Pre-pandemic levels of HIV prevention services should be restored as quickly as feasible.

Addressing gaps in cardiovascular care for people with HIV: bridging scientific evidence and practice

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

People with HIV continue to have an excess burden of cardiovascular disease compared to the general population. The reasons for these disparities in cardiovascular disease include HIV-specific risk enhancers, traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors, and sociodemographic disparities, all of which are ripe targets for intervention.

RECENT FINDINGS

Accurate risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease remains difficult, and cardiovascular risk for people with HIV may be underestimated in the absence of HIV-specific risk enhancers. Despite this increased cardiovascular risk, people with HIV are undertreated and often placed on inadequate lipid lowering therapy. Structural racism and HIV-related stigma play a role, and provider-level and structural-level interventions to encourage early identification and treatment of persons at high risk are necessary.

SUMMARY

Persons with HIV should be screened with existing cardiovascular risk prediction tools, and those at high risk cardiovascular disease should be promptly referred for lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions as appropriate. System-level implementation research is ongoing in attempts to narrow the gap in cardiovascular care, particularly for vulnerable communities in low resource settings.

Are Unequal Policies in Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Uptake Needed to Improve Equality? An Examination Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Los Angeles County

Racial and ethnic minority men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS in Los Angeles County (LAC), an important epicenter in the battle to end HIV. We examine tradeoffs between effectiveness and equality of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) allocation strategies among different racial and ethnic groups of MSM in LAC and provide a framework for quantitatively evaluating disparities in HIV outcomes. To do this, we developed a microsimulation model of HIV among MSM in LAC using county epidemic surveillance and survey data to capture demographic trends and subgroup-specific partnership patterns, disease progression, patterns of PrEP use, and patterns for viral suppression. We limit analysis to MSM, who bear most of the burden of HIV/AIDS in LAC. We simulated interventions where 3000, 6000, or 9000 PrEP prescriptions are provided annually in addition to current levels, following different allocation scenarios to each racial/ethnic group (Black, Hispanic, or White). We estimated cumulative infections averted and measures of equality, after 15 years (2021-2035), relative to base case (no intervention). By comparing allocation strategies on the health equality impact plane, we find that, of the policies evaluated, targeting PrEP preferentially to Black individuals would result in the largest reductions in incidence and disparities across the equality measures we considered. This result was consistent over a range of PrEP coverage levels, demonstrating that there are "win-win" PrEP allocation strategies that do not require a tradeoff between equality and efficiency.

Spatial accessibility to HIV testing, treatment, and prevention services in Illinois and Chicago, USA

Accomplishing the goals outlined in “Ending the HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) Epidemic: A Plan for America Initiative” will require properly estimating and increasing access to HIV testing, treatment, and prevention services. In this research, a computational spatial method for estimating access was applied to measure distance to services from all points of a city or state while considering the size of the population in need for services as well as both driving and public transportation. Specifically, this study employed the enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method to measure spatial accessibility to HIV testing, treatment (i.e., Ryan White HIV/AIDS program), and prevention (i.e., Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis [PrEP]) services. The method considered the spatial location of MSM (Men Who have Sex with Men), PLWH (People Living with HIV), and the general adult population 15–64 depending on what HIV services the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommends for each group. The study delineated service- and population-specific accessibility maps, demonstrating the method’s utility by analyzing data corresponding to the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois. Findings indicated health disparities in the south and the northwest of Chicago and particular areas in Illinois, as well as unique health disparities for public transportation compared to driving. The methodology details and computer code are shared for use in research and public policy.

Using Microsimulation Modeling to Inform EHE Implementation Strategies in Los Angeles County

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is essential to ending HIV. Yet, uptake remains uneven across racial and ethnic groups. We aimed to estimate the impacts of alternative PrEP implementation strategies in Los Angeles County.

SETTING

Men who have sex with men, residing in Los Angeles County.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of HIV transmission, with inputs from key local stakeholders. With this model, we estimated the 15-year (2021-2035) health and racial and ethnic equity impacts of 3 PrEP implementation strategies involving coverage with 9000 additional PrEP units annually, above the Status-quo coverage level. Strategies included PrEP allocation equally (strategy 1), proportionally to HIV prevalence (strategy 2), and proportionally to HIV diagnosis rates (strategy 3), across racial and ethnic groups. We measured the degree of relative equalities in the distribution of the health impacts using the Gini index (G) which ranges from 0 (perfect equality, with all individuals across all groups receiving equal health benefits) to 1 (total inequality).

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was 21.3% in 2021 [Black (BMSM), 31.1%; Latino (LMSM), 18.3%, and White (WMSM), 20.7%] with relatively equal to reasonable distribution across groups (G, 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.34). During 2021-2035, cumulative incident infections were highest under Status-quo (n = 24,584) and lowest under strategy 3 (n = 22,080). Status-quo infection risk declined over time among all groups but remained higher in 2035 for BMSM (incidence rate ratio, 4.76; 95% CI: 4.58 to 4.95), and LMSM (incidence rate ratio, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.69 to 1.80), with the health benefits equally to reasonably distributed across groups (G, 0.32; 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.35). Relative to Status-quo, all other strategies reduced BMSM-WMSM and BMSM-LMSM disparities, but none reduced LMSM-WMSM disparities by 2035. Compared to Status-quo, strategy 3 reduced the most both incident infections (% infections averted: overall, 10.2%; BMSM, 32.4%; LMSM, 3.8%; WMSM, 3.5%) and HIV racial inequalities (G reduction, 0.08; 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

Microsimulation models developed with early, continuous stakeholder engagement and inputs yield powerful tools to guide policy implementation.

Projected Effects of Disruptions to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Prevention Services During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Among Black/African American Men Who Have Sex With Men in an Ending the HIV Epidemic Priority Jurisdiction

Background

Disruptions in access to in-person human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preventive care during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a negative impact on our progress towards the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the United States.

Methods

We used an agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission among Black/African American men who have sex with men in Mississippi over 5 years to estimate how different reductions in access affected the number of undiagnosed HIV cases, new pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) starts, and HIV incidence.

Results

We found that each additional 25% decrease in HIV testing and PrEP initiation was associated with decrease of 20% in the number of cases diagnosed and 23% in the number of new PrEP starts, leading to a 15% increase in HIV incidence from 2020 to 2022.

Conclusions

Unmet need for HIV testing and PrEP prescriptions during the COVID-19 pandemic may temporarily increase HIV incidence in the years immediately after the disruption period.

Study Evaluating Self-Collected Specimen Return for HIV, Bacterial STI, and Potential Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Adherence Testing Among Sexual Minority Men in the United States

Web-based HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention studies are increasingly requesting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) to return self-collected specimens for laboratory processing. Some studies have solicited self-collected extragenital swabs for gonorrhea and chlamydia testing, but to date, none have solicited self-collected hair samples for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) adherence testing. Project Caboodle! offered 100 racially/ethnically diverse GBMSM aged 18 to 34 years residing across the United States a choice to self-collect at home and return by mail any of the following: a finger-stick blood sample (for HIV testing), a pharyngeal swab, a rectal swab and a urine specimen (for gonorrhea and chlamydia testing), and a hair sample (to visually assess its adequacy for PrEP drug level testing). Despite not incentivizing specimen return, 51% mailed back at least one type of specimen within 6 weeks (1% returned three specimens, 11% returned four specimens and 39% returned all five specimens). The majority of returned specimens were adequate for laboratory processing. Significantly more participants without a college education (p = .0003) and those who were working full-time or part-time (p = .0070) did not return any specimens. In addition, lower levels of HIV-related knowledge (p = .0390), STI-related knowledge (p = .0162), concern about contracting HIV (p = .0484), and concern about contracting STIs (p = .0108) were observed among participants who did not return any specimens. Self-collection of specimens holds promise as a remote monitoring strategy that could supplement testing in clinical settings, but a better understanding of why some GBMSM may choose to fully, partially, or not engage in this approach is warranted.

Preferences and access to community-based HIV testing sites among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Côte d'Ivoire

OBJECTIVE

Measuring access and preferences to Men who have Sex with Men focused community-based HIV testing sites (MSM-CBTS) in Côte d'Ivoire.

DESIGN

A respondent-driven sampling telephone survey.

SETTING

National survey conducted in 2018 in Côte d'Ivoire.

PARTICIPANTS

518 MSM aged over 18 years old.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Knowledge, practices, satisfaction and preferences regarding MSM-CBTS. Factors associated with MSM-CTBS access or knowledge and with HIV testing venue preferences were examined.

RESULTS

Only half of the respondents (47%) reported knowing of an MSM-CBTS. Of these, 79% had already attended one. Both knowing of and ever visiting an MSM-CBTS were significantly associated with a higher number of HIV tests performed in the past 12 months and having disclosed sexual orientation to one family member.In terms of preferences, 37% of respondents said they preferred undifferentiated HIV testing sites (ie, 'all patients' HIV testing sites), 34% preferred MSM-CBTS and 29% had no preference.Those who reported being sexually attracted to women, being bisexual and those who did not know an MSM non-governmental organisation were less likely to prefer MSM-CBTS. MSM who preferred undifferentiated HIV testing sites mentioned the lack of discretion and anonymity of community-based sites and the desire to avoid the gaze of others.

CONCLUSION

Community-based HIV testing is well suited for MSM who identify as homosexual and those close to the MSM community, while maintaining undifferentiated HIV testing is essential for others. Both types of activities need to be maintained and developed. Healthcare professionals in undifferentiated HIV testing sites need to be properly trained in the non-judgemental reception of MSM.

Gay Dating App Users Support and Utilize Sexual Health Features on Apps

Men who have sex with men (MSM) frequently meet sex partners through dating apps. Research has demonstrated an association between app use and greater number of sex partners and STIs, but dating apps also pose an opportunity for intervention. By advocating for sexual health features on dating apps, Building Healthy Online Communities (BHOC) aims to increase communication about sexual health among app users. In partnership with Emory University, BHOC added questions to an annual survey of MSM. The questions assessed awareness and uptake of profile fields and sexual health features on the dating apps. Among survey participants, 67% (6737/10,129) reported using dating apps to meet a partner in the past year. Among this group, 77% (4993/6525) reported awareness of sexual health features. 61% of app users (2866/4721) who were aware of them reported using one or more sexual health features. BHOC continues to advocate for increased uptake of these features.

Hepatitis C prevalence and key population size estimate updates in San Francisco: 2015 to 2019

BACKGROUND

In 2017, San Francisco's initiative to locally eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat, End Hep C SF, generated an estimate of city-wide HCV prevalence in 2015, but only incorporated limited information about population HCV treatment. Using additional data and updated methods, we aimed to update the 2015 estimate to 2019 and provide a more accurate estimate of the number of people with untreated, active HCV infection overall and in key subgroups-people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM), and low socioeconomic status transgender women (low SES TW).

METHODS

Our estimates are based on triangulation of data from blood bank testing records, cross-sectional and longitudinal observational studies, and published literature. We calculated subpopulation estimates based on biological sex, age and/or HCV risk group. When multiple sources of data were available for subpopulation estimates, we calculated an average using inverse variance weighting. Plausible ranges (PRs) were conservatively estimated to convey uncertainty.

RESULTS

The total number of people estimated to have anti-HCV antibodies in San Francisco in 2019 was 22,585 (PR:12,014-44,152), with a citywide seroprevalence of 2.6% (PR:1.4%-5.0%)-similar to the 2015 estimate of 21,758 (PR:10,274-42,067). Of all people with evidence of past or present infection, an estimated 11,582 (PR:4,864-35,094) still had untreated, active HCV infection, representing 51.3% (PR:40.5%-79.5%) of all people with anti-HCV antibodies, and 1.3% (PR:0.6%-4.0%) of all San Franciscans. PWID comprised an estimated 2.8% of the total population of San Francisco, yet 73.1% of people with anti-HCV antibodies and 90.4% (n = 10,468, PR:4,690-17,628) of untreated, active HCV infections were among PWID. MSM comprised 7.8% of the total population, yet 11.7% of people with anti-HCV antibodies and 1.0% (n = 119, PR:0-423) of those with untreated active infections. Low SES TW comprised an estimated 0.1% of the total population, yet 1.4% of people with HCV antibodies and 1.6% (n = 183, PR:130-252) of people with untreated active infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the above-average number (2.6%) of people with anti-HCV antibodies, we estimate that only 1.3% (PR:0.6%-4.0%) of all San Francisco residents have untreated, active HCV infection-likely a reflection of San Francisco's robust efforts to diagnose infection among high-risk groups and initiate curative treatment with as many people as possible. While plausible ranges of infections are wide, these findings indicate that while the overall number of people with anti-HCV antibodies may have increased slightly, the number of people with active HCV infection may have decreased slightly since 2015. This estimate improves upon the 2015 calculations by directly estimating the impact of curative treatment citywide and in subgroups. However, more research is needed to better understand the burden of HCV disease among other subgroups at high risk, such as Blacks/African Americans, people with a history of injection drug use (but not injecting drugs in the last 12 months), people who are currently or formerly incarcerated, and people who are currently or formerly unhoused.

Cost-Effectiveness of Long-Acting Injectable HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis in the United States : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 trial demonstrated the superiority of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral emtricitabine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (F/TDF) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

OBJECTIVE

To identify the maximum price premium (that is, greatest possible price differential) that society should be willing to accept for the additional benefits of CAB-LA over tenofovir-based PrEP among men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in the United States.

DESIGN

Simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Trial and published data, including estimated HIV incidence (5.32, 1.33, and 0.26 per 100 person-years for off PrEP, generic F/TDF and branded emtricitabine-tenofovir alafenamide (F/TAF), and CAB-LA, respectively); 28% 6-year PrEP retention. Annual base-case drug costs: $360 and $16 800 for generic F/TDF and branded F/TAF. Fewer side effects with branded F/TAF versus generic F/TDF were assumed.

TARGET POPULATION

476 700 MSM/TGW at very high risk for HIV (VHR).

TIME HORIZON

10 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care system.

INTERVENTION

CAB-LA versus generic F/TDF or branded F/TAF for HIV PrEP.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary transmissions, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2020 U.S. dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; U.S. dollars per QALY), maximum price premium for CAB-LA versus tenofovir-based PrEP.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Compared with generic F/TDF (or branded F/TAF), CAB-LA increased life expectancy by 28 000 QALYs (26 000 QALYs) among those at VHR. Branded F/TAF cost more per QALY gained than generic F/TDF compared with no PrEP. At 10 years, CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY compared with generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $3700 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$4100 per year).

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

In a PrEP-eligible population at high risk for HIV, rather than at VHR (n = 1 906 800; off PrEP incidence: 1.54 per 100 person-years), CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY versus generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $1100 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$1500 per year).

LIMITATION

Uncertain clinical and economic benefits of averting future transmissions.

CONCLUSION

Effective oral PrEP limits the additional price society should be willing to pay for CAB-LA.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

FHI 360; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute on Drug Abuse; the Reich HIV Scholar Award; and the Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

Predicting Emergence of Primary and Secondary Syphilis Among Women of Reproductive Age in US Counties

BACKGROUND

Syphilis, a sexually transmitted infection that can cause severe congenital disease when not treated during pregnancy, is on the rise in the United States. Our objective was to identify US counties with elevated risk for emergence of primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis among women of reproductive age.

METHODS

Using syphilis case reports, we identified counties with no cases of P&S syphilis among women of reproductive age in 2017 and 1 case or more in 2018. Using county-level syphilis and sociodemographic data, we developed a model to predict counties with emergence of P&S syphilis among women and a risk score to identify counties at elevated risk.

RESULTS

Of 2451 counties with no cases of P&S syphilis among women of reproductive age in 2017, 345 counties (14.1%) had documented emergence of syphilis in 2018. Emergence was predicted by the county's P&S syphilis rate among men; violent crime rate; proportions of Black, White, Asian, and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander persons; urbanicity; presence of a metropolitan area; population size; and having a neighboring county with P&S syphilis among women. A risk score of 20 or more identified 75% of counties with emergence.

CONCLUSIONS

Jurisdictions can identify counties at elevated risk for emergence of syphilis in women and tailor prevention efforts. Prevention of syphilis requires multidisciplinary collaboration to address underlying social factors.

Countering the rise of syphilis: A role for doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis?

Doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) holds the potential to mitigate increasing rates of syphilis among sexual minority men (SMM) in the US yet has received limited attention. Since evaluation of this intervention in actual populations is not currently feasible, we used agent-based models (ABM) to assess the population-level impact of this strategy. We adapted ABM of HIV and HPV transmission, representing a population of 10,230 SMM in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US. Parameter inputs were derived from the literature, and ABM outputs during the pre-intervention period were calibrated to local surveillance data. Intervention scenarios varied doxycycline uptake by 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100%, while assuming continued condom use and syphilis screening and treatment. Under each intervention scenario, we incorporated treatment adherence at the following levels: 0, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100%. Long-term population impact of prophylactic doxycycline was measured using the cumulative incidence over the 10-year period and the percentage of infections prevented attributable to doxycycline at year 10. An uptake scenario of 20% with an adherence level of 80% would reduce the cumulative incidence of infections by 10% over the next decade, translating to 57 fewer cases per 1000 SMM. At year 10, under the same uptake and adherence level, 22% of infections would be prevented due to doxycycline PEP in the instances where condoms were not used or failed. Findings suggest that doxycycline PEP will have a modest impact on syphilis incidence when assuming a reasonable level of uptake and adherence. Doxycycline PEP may be most appropriate as a secondary prevention measure to condoms and enhanced syphilis screening for reducing infections among SMM.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.

DESIGN

A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.

SETTING

32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

PATIENTS

Simulated populations in each MSA.

INTERVENTION

Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org).

LIMITATION

The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.

CONCLUSION

Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.