Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

Measles outbreak in the adult age group: Clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological features of the 11 patients admitted to the hospital

The measles virus, also known as the morbillivirus, or MV, is a virus that infects humans. The goal of this research is to assess to adult cases of measles. Eleven patients thought to be confirmed cases of measles were enrolled in the investigation. Following the identification of symptoms of tiredness, fever, and rash in one soldier, the results of 10 more troops from the pertinent military group were assessed. The diagnosis was made based on the presence of serum immunoglobulin M (IgM) and positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results. When the control IgM, immunoglobulin G, and PCR findings were evaluated a fortnight after hospitalization, a cluster of 11 incidents was found. It is now necessary to address the issue of the cautious stance towards vaccination or the anti-vaccination sentiment that has grown increasingly popular, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, for both our nation and the entire world.

Status of Routine Immunization Coverage in the World Health Organization African Region Three Years into the COVID-19 Pandemic

Data from the WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) 2022 revision were analyzed to assess the status of routine immunization in the WHO African Region disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, coverage for the first and third doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP1 and DTP3, respectively) and the first dose of the measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in the region was estimated at 80%, 72% and 69%, respectively (all below the 2019 level). Only 13 of the 47 countries (28%) achieved the global target coverage of 90% or above with DTP3 in 2022. From 2019 to 2022, 28.7 million zero-dose children were recorded (19.0% of the target population). Ten countries in the region accounted for 80.3% of all zero-dose children, including the four most populated countries. Reported administrative coverage greater than WUENIC-reported coverage was found in 19 countries, highlighting routine immunization data quality issues. The WHO African Region has not yet recovered from COVID-19 disruptions to routine immunization. It is critical for governments to ensure that processes are in place to prioritize investments for restoring immunization services, catching up on the vaccination of zero-dose and under-vaccinated children and improving data quality.

The changes in health service utilisation in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care.

METHODS

We extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi. Two datasets were prepared: unadjusted and adjusted; for the latter, unreported monthly data entries for a facility were filled in through systematic rules based on reported mean values of that facility or facility type and considering both reporting rates and comparability with published data. Using statistical descriptive methods, we first described the patterns of service utilisation in pre-pandemic years (2015-2019). We then tested for evidence of departures from this routine pattern, i.e., service volume delivered being below recent average by more than two standard deviations was viewed as a substantial reduction, and calculated the cumulative net differences of service volume during the pandemic period (2020-2021), in aggregate and within each specific facility.

RESULTS

Evidence of disruptions were found: from April 2020 to December 2021, services delivered of several types were reduced across primary and secondary levels of care-including inpatient care (-20.03% less total interactions in that period compared to the recent average), immunisation (-17.61%), malnutrition treatment (-34.5%), accidents and emergency services (-16.03%), HIV (human immunodeficiency viruses) tests (-27.34%), antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations for adults (-33.52%), and ART treatment for paediatrics (-41.32%). Reductions of service volume were greatest in the first wave of the pandemic during April-August 2020, and whereas some service types rebounded quickly (e.g., outpatient visits from -17.7% to +3.23%), many others persisted at lower level through 2021 (e.g., under-five malnutrition treatment from -15.24% to -42.23%). The total reduced service volume between April 2020 and December 2021 was 8 066 956 (-10.23%), equating to 444 units per 1000 persons.

CONCLUSION

We have found substantial evidence for reductions in health service delivered in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic which may have potential health consequences, the effect of which should inform how decisions are taken in the future to maximise the resilience of healthcare system during similar events.

A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This article reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policy makers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives.

METHODS

A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working articles, and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data.

RESULTS

We found 80 articles modeling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption and to high-income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under 4 categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epidemiological-economic agent-based models. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modeling needs. Priorities for future modeling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Meningitis in Niger Republic amidst COVID-19: current issues and novel recommendations

Amidst coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there has been a misplaced priority on meningitis in the Niger Republic, thus refocusing resources and attention away from the continuing meningitis campaign in the Niger Republic. The over-strained state of public health resources and staff has also led to decreased surveillance, postponed diagnoses, and constrained immunization efforts in Niger Republic. This review aims to bridge the gaps regarding meningitis amid COVID-19 in Niger Republic and offer recommendations to government to mitigate meningitis in the country, with the hope of finding a permanent solution to this debilitating disease. The authors reviewed 45 past and present pieces of literature on meningitis and COVID-19 from 2013 to 2023 in well-renowned scientific databases such as PubMed, ResearchGate, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, Medline, and Embase. Since 2015, Niger Republic has experienced multiple meningitis epidemics that have resulted in 20, 789 cases and 1, 369 deaths [a case fatality rate (CFR) of 6.6%]. A total of 231 cases of meningitis were reported from 1 November 2021 to 31 January 2022. And recently, 559 cases of meningitis (of which 111 are laboratory confirmed), including 18 deaths (overall CFR 3.2%), occurred in the Zinder region, southeast of Niger Republic, from 1 November 2022 to 27 January 2023. Meningitis remains a public health concern in the world, especially in Niger Republic, which could lead to serious long-term complications. Therefore, adequate and novel measures and therapeutic actions should be implemented by the Niger Government to lessen the burden of the disease in the country.

Acceptance of and Adherence to a Four-Dose RTS,S/AS01 Schedule: Findings from a Longitudinal Qualitative Evaluation Study for the Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme

BACKGROUND

The WHO recommended the use of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine (RTS,S) based on a pilot evaluation in routine use in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi. A longitudinal qualitative study was conducted to examine facilitators and barriers to uptake of a 4-dose RTS,S schedule.

METHODS

A cohort of 198 caregivers of RTS,S-eligible children from communities where RTS,S was provided through the pilot were interviewed three times over a ≈22-month, 4-dose schedule. The interviews examined caregiver perceptions and behaviors. Children's vaccination history was obtained to determine dose uptake.

RESULTS

162 caregivers remained at round 3 (R3); vaccination history was available for 152/162 children. Despite early rumors/fears, the uptake of initial doses was high, driven by vaccine trust. Fears dissipated by R2, replaced with an enthusiasm for RTS,S as caregivers perceived its safety and less frequent and severe malaria. By R3, 98/152 children had received four doses; 34 three doses; 9 one or two doses; and 11 zero doses. The health system and information barriers were important across all under-dose cases. Fears about AEFIs/safety were important in zero-, one-, and two-dose cases. Competing life/livelihood demands and complacency were found in three-dose cases. Regardless of the doses received, caregivers had positive attitudes towards RTS,S by R3.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from our study will help countries newly introducing the vaccine to anticipate and preempt reasons for delayed acceptance and missed RTS,S doses.

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and response on routine childhood vaccination coverage and equity in Northern Nigeria: a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

Based on 2021 data, Nigeria had the second largest number of zero-dose children globally estimated at over 2.25 million, concentrated in the northern part of the country due to factors some of which are sociocultural. This study analysed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and response on childhood vaccination in Northern Nigeria.

METHODS

Using a mixed methods sequential study design in the most populous northern states of Kaduna and Kano, quantitative routine immunisation data for the period 2018-2021 and qualitative data collected through 16 focus group discussions and 40 key informant interviews were used. An adaptation of the socioecological model was used as a conceptual framework. Mean vaccination coverages and test of statistical difference in childhood vaccination data were computed. Qualitative data were coded and analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Mean Penta 1 coverage declined in Kaduna from 69.88% (SD=21.02) in 2018 to 59.54% (SD=19.14%) by 2021, contrasting with Kano where mean Penta 1 coverage increased from 51.87% (SD=12.61) to 56.32% (SD=17.62%) over the same period. Outreaches and vaccination in urban areas declined for Kaduna state by 10% over the pandemic period in contrast to Kano state where it showed a marginal increase. The two states combined had an estimated 25% of the country's zero-dose burden in 2021. Lockdowns, lack of transport and no outreaches which varied across the states were some of the factors mentioned by participants to have negatively impacted childhood vaccination. Special vaccination outreaches were among the recommendations for ensuring continued vaccination through a future pandemic.

CONCLUSION

While further interrogating the accuracy of denominator estimates for the urban population, incorporating findings into pandemic preparedness and response will ensure uninterrupted childhood vaccination during emergencies. Addressing the identified issues will be critical to achieving and sustaining universal childhood vaccination in Nigeria.

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Studies assessing the indirect impact of COVID-19 using mathematical models have increased in recent years. This scoping review aims to identify modelling studies assessing the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 and to summarise the characteristics of disruption and the models used to assess the disruptions.

METHODS

Eligible studies were included if they used any models to assess the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on any health services. Articles published from January 2020 to December 2022 were identified from PubMed, Embase and CINAHL, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, modelling and healthcare disruptions. Two reviewers independently extracted the data in four domains. A descriptive analysis of the included studies was performed under the format of a narrative report.

RESULTS

This scoping review has identified a total of 52 modelling studies that employed several models (n=116) to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services. The majority of the models were simulation models (n=86; 74.1%). Studies covered a wide range of health conditions from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. COVID-19 has been reported to disrupt supply of health services, demand for health services and social change affecting factors that influence health. The most common outcomes reported in the studies were clinical outcomes such as mortality and morbidity. Twenty-five studies modelled various mitigation strategies; maintaining critical services by ensuring resources and access to services are found to be a priority for reducing the overall impact.

CONCLUSION

A number of models were used to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services on various outcomes. There is a need for collaboration among stakeholders to enhance the usefulness of any modelling. Future studies should consider disparity issues for more comprehensive findings that could ultimately facilitate policy decision-making to maximise benefits to all.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake and associated factors among adolescents and youths: Findings and implications for future vaccination programmes

Adolescents and youths are a key part of the population that needs to be protected against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This is because they are more likely to spread the virus to vulnerable individuals. In view of these concerns, this study investigated the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and associated factors among adolescents and youths attending secondary schools in Zambia. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 1500 school-going adolescents in Lusaka from September 2022 to November 2022. Overall, 1409 participants took part giving a response rate of 94%. Only 29.2% (n = 411) of the participants were vaccinated against COVID-19 at the time of the study. Compared to their unvaccinated counterparts, vaccinated adolescents and youths scored higher for knowledge (66.2% vs 57.8%) and attitudes (76.7% vs 39.4%) regarding COVID-19 vaccines. Healthcare workers, family/friends and social media were key sources of information regarding the vaccine. Factors associated with increased vaccine uptake were positive attitudes (AOR = 33.62, 95% CI: 19.92-56.73), indicating it was stressful to follow COVID-19 preventive measures (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.09-1.99), participants in Grade 12 (AOR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.94-5.91), Grade 11 (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.94-5.91), Grade 10 (AOR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.98-6.11) and Grade 9 (AOR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.74-5.32) compared to Grade 8. This study found a relatively low uptake of COVID-19 vaccines among adolescents and youths in Zambia. There is a need to provide adequate strategies to address knowledge and attitude gaps regarding COVID-19 vaccines to improve uptake and reduce future morbidity and mortality.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine vaccination services in Shaanxi province, Northwest China: Non-pharmaceutical intervention period and mass COVID-19 vaccination period

To better understand the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on routine vaccination, a cross-sectional study was carried out during non-pharmaceutical intervention period (2020) and mass COVID-19 vaccination period (2021) in Shaanxi province. Data on NIP (National Immunization Program, Free), nNIP (non-National Immunization Program, Paid), and COVID-19 vaccines inoculated and vaccination clinics were collected. At the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, the rate of routine vaccination clinics providing vaccination services was only 20.0%, rabies vaccination clinics was 89.9% and obstetric vaccination clinics was 95.9%. Compared with 2019 (as baseline), NIP vaccines inoculated in 2020 and 2021 decreased by 3.5% and 19.2%, respectively, on the contrary, nNIP vaccines increased by 25.8% and 34.7%, respectively. In 2021, 74.9% of vaccination clinics were involved in mass COVID-19 vaccination, and there was not a significant impact of mass COVID-19 vaccination on the number of other vaccines inoculated. Vaccination coverage of all NIP vaccines was not different from that in previous years. COVID-19 epidemic had a short-term impact on routine vaccination at beginning. The impact of mass COVID-19 vaccination on routine vaccination could even be ignored. The COVID-19 epidemic has once again made people realize the great harm of infectious diseases, and has improved everyone's willingness to receive routine vaccines.

COVID-19 impacts on healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa: an overview

This overview aimed to describe the situation of healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. A PubMed^® search from March 31, 2020, to August 15, 2022, selected 116 articles. Healthcare access and consequences of COVID-19 were assessed based on comparisons with months before its onset or an identical season in previous years. A general reduction of healthcare delivery, associated with the decline of care quality, and closure of many specialty services were reported. The impact was heterogeneous in space and time, with an increase in urban areas at the beginning of the pandemic (March-June 2020). The return to normalcy was gradual from the 3^rd quarter of 2020 until the end of 2021. The impact of COVID-19 on the health system and its use was attributed to (a) conjunctural factors resulting from government actions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic (containment, transportation restrictions, closures of businesses, and places of entertainment or worship); (b) structural factors related to the disruption of public and private facilities and institutions, in particular, the health system; and (c) individual factors linked to the increase in costs, impoverishment of the population, and fear of contamination or stigmatization, which discouraged patients from going to health centers. They have caused considerable socio-economic damage. Several studies emphasized some adaptability of the healthcare offer and resilience of the healthcare system, despite its unpreparedness, which explained a return to normal activities as early as 2022 while the COVID-19 epidemic persisted. There appears to be a strong disproportion between the moderate incidence and severity of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, and the dramatic impact on healthcare access. Several articles make recommendations for lowering the socioeconomic consequences of future epidemics to ensure better management of health issues.

Spatial distribution and determinants of childhood vaccination refusal in the United States

Parental refusal and delay of childhood vaccination has increased in recent years in the United States. This phenomenon challenges maintenance of herd immunity and increases the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. We examine US county-level vaccine refusal for patients under five years of age collected during the period 2012-2015 from an administrative healthcare dataset. We model these data with a Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model to capture social and political processes that are associated with vaccine refusal, as well as factors that affect our measurement of vaccine refusal. Our work highlights fine-scale socio-demographic characteristics associated with vaccine refusal nationally, finds that spatial clustering in refusal can be explained by such factors, and has the potential to aid in the development of targeted public health strategies for optimizing vaccine uptake.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Arthropod-Related Diseases

Background

The Covid-19 pandemic that caused by the infection with the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has revealed individual and global vulnerabilities all over the world. Many countries that had been struggled with arthropod-borne diseases (VBDs) are now embroiled in another challenge caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The situation that poses major obstacles 1) by misdiagnosis 2) delay in early and appropriate treatment of VBDs 3) difficulties in applying regular strategy for vector control and prevention methods and finally 4) irregularity in financing supports. Given the possible scenario of syndemics, it is important to plan integrated and combined measurement with the maximum participation of the people and health authorities. Here, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on some major arthropod-related diseases will be discussed.

Methods

To access the collective data all related databases such as Science direct, PubMed, Elsevier, Google scholar, as well WHO web page were searched with key words "arthropoda-related diseases, COVID-19 with the name of each individual disease".

Results

The results showed that the management, control, and treatment of most important arthropod-related diseases could be delayed due to COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

Dealing with COVID-19, it is crucial to consider the other main killers such as malaria, dengue fever, etc. more especially in vulnerable populations by greater political, financial and global commitment. Continued surveillance will be essential to monitor for any possible changes.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of other communicable diseases in Japan

OBJECTIVES

To elucidate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of other infectious diseases.

DESIGN

We investigated the epidemiology of 36 communicable diseases during 2015-2021 in Japan and compared the number of cases in each disease between the prepandemic (2015-2019) and intrapandemic (2020-2021) periods. Relationships between the incidence of the infectious diseases and the COVID-19 pandemic were also investigated.

RESULTS

Of 36 communicable diseases, the number of cases in the 27 diseases (75%) mainly caused by pathogens transmitted by droplet or contact was lower intrapandemic than prepandemic, and the cases of 21 diseases (58%) continued to decrease intrapandemic. The number of cases of six diseases (17%) was higher intrapandemic than prepandemic, and the cases of two diseases (5.6%), Japanese spotted fever and syphilis, continued to increase intrapandemic. Time trend analyses revealed a positive correlation between case numbers of communicable diseases and the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the case numbers of hand-foot-and-mouth disease and respiratory syncytial virus infection rebounded in 2021 after decreasing in 2020.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted the epidemiology of communicable diseases, suggesting that countermeasures against COVID-19 and lifestyle changes might be involved in these epidemiological changes.

[Impact of COVID-19 on public health in sub-Saharan Africa]

Objective

This work aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare supply in sub-Saharan Africa except South Africa.

Method

A search through PubMed® between April 2020 and August 2022 selected 135 articles. The impact of COVID-19 was assessed on comparisons with the months prior to the onset of COVID-19 or an identical season in previous years.

Results

The decline of health services, associated with a reduction in their quality, and the closure of specialized health units have been reported. Many control programs and public health interventions have been interrupted, with the risk of an increase of the corresponding diseases. Social disorganization has generated mental health issues among the population, including health personnel. The impact was heterogeneous in space and time. The main causes were attributed to containment measures (transport restrictions, trade closures) and the lack of human and material resources. The increase in costs, in addition to the impoverishment of the population, and the fear of being contaminated or stigmatized have discouraged patients from going to health centres. The studies mention the gradual return to normal after the first epidemic wave and the resilience of the healthcare system.

Conclusion

Several articles make recommendations aimed at reducing the impact of future epidemics: support for community workers, training of health workers and reorganization of services to improve the reception and care of patients, technological innovations (use of telephones, drones, etc.) and better information monitoring.

Meningococcal A conjugate vaccine coverage in the meningitis belt of Africa from 2010 to 2021: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

As of the end of 2021, twenty-four countries in the African meningitis belt have rolled out mass campaigns of MenAfriVac®, a meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MACV) first introduced in 2010. Twelve have completed introduction of MACV into routine immunisation (RI) schedules. Although select post-campaign coverage data are published, no study currently comprehensively estimates MACV coverage from both routine and campaign sources in the meningitis belt across age, country, and time.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we assembled campaign data from the twenty-four countries that had introduced any immunisation activity during or before the year 2021 (Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo and Uganda) via WHO reports and RI data via systematic review. Next, we modelled RI coverage using Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression. Then, we synthesized these estimates with campaign data into a cohort model, tracking coverage for each age cohort from age 1 to 29 years over time for each country.

FINDINGS

Coverage in high-risk locations amongst children aged 1-4 in 2021 was estimated to be highest in Togo with 96.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 92.0-99.0), followed by Niger with 87.2% (95% UI 85.3-89.0) and Burkina Faso, with 86.4% (95% UI 85.1-87.6). These countries had high coverage values driven by an initial successful mass immunisation campaign, followed by a catch-up campaign, followed by introduction of RI. Due to the influence of older mass vaccination campaigns, coverage proportions skewed higher in the 1-29 age group than the 1-4 group, with a median coverage of 82.9% in 2021 in the broader age group compared to 45.6% in the narrower age group.

INTERPRETATION

These estimates highlight where gaps in immunisation remain and emphasise the need for broader efforts to strengthen RI systems. This methodological framework can be applied to estimate coverage for any vaccine that has been delivered in both routine and supplemental immunisation activities.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of COVID-19 measures on the health and healthcare of children in East-Africa: Scoping review

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is of grave concern. As scientific data is being collected about the nature of COVID-19, government leaders and policy makers are challenged. They might feel pressured to take strong measures to stop virus spread. However, decisions could cause more harm than do good. This study maps all existing literature regarding the impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the health and healthcare of children in East-Africa.

METHODS

This scoping review follows Population Concept Context guidelines of Arksey and O'Malley and PRISMA 2020 checklist. PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were searched. All peer-reviewed literature published in English between January 2020 and October 2022 was considered. Initial screening of titles and abstracts was undertaken independently by two reviewers, with a third available in case of doubt. This was followed by full-text screening involving two independent reviewers.

RESULTS

In total, 70 studies were included. Eight containment measures affecting children's health and healthcare were distinguished: lockdowns, school closures, physical distancing, travel restrictions, business closures, stay-at-home orders, curfews, quarantine measures with contact tracing. The consensus in the studies is that containment measures could minimise COVID-19 spread but have adverse indirect effects on children in East-Africa. Seven indirect effects were distinguished: economic damage, limited education access, food insecurity, child abuse, limited healthcare access, disrupted health-programs, and mental health challenges.

CONCLUSION

Government leaders and policy makers should take adverse indirect effects of COVID-19 measures into account, particularly in resource-limited regions such as East-Africa, apply a holistic approach, and strengthen socioeconomic and health-systems to protect the most vulnerable.

Use of catch-up vaccinations in the second year of life (2YL) platform to close immunity gaps: A secondary DHS analysis in Pakistan, Philippines, and South Africa

BACKGROUND

Immunity gaps caused by COVID-19-related disruptions highlight the importance of catch-up vaccination. Number of countries offering vaccines in second year of life (2YL) has increased, but use of 2YL for catch-up vaccination has been variable. We assessed pre-pandemic use of 2YL for catch-up vaccination in three countries (Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Africa), based on existence of a 2YL platform (demonstrated by offering second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) in 2YL), proportion of card availability, and geographical variety.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary data analysis of immunization data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Pakistan (2017-2018), the Philippines (2017), and South Africa (2016). We conducted time-to-event analyses for pentavalent vaccine (diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-Hepatitis B-Haemophilus influenzae type b [Hib]) and MCV and calculated use of 2YL and MCV visits for catch-up vaccination.

RESULTS

Among 24-35-month-olds with documented dates, coverage of third dose of pentavalent vaccine increased in 2YL by 2%, 3%, and 1% in Pakistan, Philippines, and South Africa, respectively. MCV1 coverage increased in 2YL by 5% in Pakistan, 10% in the Philippines, and 3% in South Africa. In Pakistan, among 124 children eligible for catch-up vaccination of pentavalent vaccine at time of a documented MCV visit, 45% received a catch-up dose. In the Philippines, among 381 eligible children, 38% received a pentavalent dose during an MCV visit. In South Africa, 50 children were eligible for a pentavalent vaccine dose before their MCV1 visit, but only 20% received it; none with MCV2.

CONCLUSION

Small to modest vaccine coverage improvements occurred in all three countries through catch-up vaccination in 2YL but many missed opportunities for vaccination continue to occur. Using the 2YL platform can increase coverage and close immunity gaps, but immunization programmes need to change policies, practices, and monitor catch-up vaccination to maximize the potential.

The impact of COVID-19 and catch-up strategies on routine childhood vaccine coverage trends in Latin America: A systematic literature review and database analysis

Globally, an estimated 23 million children missed vaccination in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We analyzed vaccination coverage trends and catch-up strategies/recommendations implemented in Latin America during the pandemic. We performed a national administrative database analysis and a systematic literature review to evaluate vaccination coverage data and identify catch-up strategies for missed vaccinations in selected countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Data were extracted from national health ministry vaccination coverage and supranational databases to identify coverage of rotavirus (RV), pentavalent/hexavalent, measles, Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) at country level before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A systematic literature review of published papers was conducted to identify vaccination catch-up strategies published in January 2020-June 2021. National administrative database-reported data showed that vaccination coverage trends were declining prior to 2020. The change in vaccination coverage before and during the COVID-19 pandemic ranged from 2.5% to -11.5% (RV), -3.0% to -11.0% (measles), 1.5% to -7.5% (PCV), 9.0% to -14.0% (pentavalent/hexavalent), and 3.0% to -18.5% (BCG). Among 696 identified studies, 14 studies were included in this review. Catch-up vaccination strategies included prioritizing routine vaccinations as per the national immunization schedule. Overall vaccination coverage declined by varying degrees among the countries investigated. This trend was observed prior to 2020, suggesting multifactorial reasons for declining vaccination rates in Latin America.

Exploring the subnational inequality and heterogeneity of the impact of routine measles immunisation in Africa

Despite vaccination being one of the most effective public health interventions, there are persisting inequalities and inequities in immunisation. Understanding the differences in subnational vaccine impact can help improve delivery mechanisms and policy. We analyse subnational vaccination coverage of measles first-dose (MCV1) and estimate patterns of inequalities in impact, represented as deaths averted, across 45 countries in Africa. We also evaluate how much this impact would improve under more equitable vaccination coverage scenarios. Using coverage data for MCV1 from 2000-2019, we estimate the number of deaths averted at the first administrative level. We use the ratio of deaths averted per vaccination from two mathematical models to extrapolate the impact at a subnational level. Next, we calculate inequality for each country, measuring the spread of deaths averted across its regions, accounting for differences in population. Finally, using three more equitable vaccination coverage scenarios, we evaluate how much impact of MCV1 immunisation could improve by (1) assuming all regions in a country have at least national coverage, (2) assuming all regions have the observed maximum coverage; and (3) assuming all regions have at least 80% coverage. Our results show that progress in coverage and reducing inequality has slowed in the last decade in many African countries. Under the three scenarios, a significant number of additional deaths in children could be prevented each year; for example, under the observed maximum coverage scenario, global MCV1 coverage would improve from 76% to 90%, resulting in a further 363(95%CrI:299-482) deaths averted per 100,000 live births. This paper illustrates that estimates of the impact of MCV1 immunisation at a national level can mask subnational heterogeneity. We further show that a considerable number of deaths could be prevented by maximising equitable access in countries with high inequality when increasing the global coverage of MCV1 vaccination.

Seroprevalence of Measles Antibodies in a Highly MMR-Vaccinated Population

As an extremely contagious pathogen, a high rate of vaccine coverage and the durability of vaccine-induced immunity are key factors to control and eliminate measles. Herein, we assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies specific to measles in a cohort of 1393 adults (20-44 years old). ELISA results showed a nontrivial proportion of 37.6% study subjects being negative for measles immunoglobulin G (IgG). We also found significant influences of sex and age of the study cohort on the IgG level. Our findings suggest that even within a highly vaccinated population, a subset of individuals may still have sub-optimal immunity against measles and potentially be susceptible during any future measles outbreaks.

Knowledge of COVID-19 and the impact on indigents' access to healthcare in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 constitutes a global health emergency of unprecedented proportions. Preventive measures, however, have run up against certain difficulties in low and middle-income countries. This is the case in socially and geographically marginalized communities, which are excluded from information about preventive measures. This study contains a dual objective, i) to assess knowledge of COVID-19 and the preventive measures associated with it concerning indigents in the villages of Diebougou's district in Burkina Faso. The aim is to understand if determinants of this understanding exist, and ii) to describe how their pathways to healthcare changed from 2019 to 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The study was conducted in the Diebougou healthcare district, in the south-west region of Burkina Faso. We relied on a cross-sectional design and used data from the fourth round of a panel survey conducted among a sample of ultra-poor people that had been monitored since 2015. Data were collected in August 2020 and included a total of 259 ultra-poor people. A multivariate logistic regression to determine the factors associated with the respondents' knowledge of COVID-19 was used.

RESULTS

Half of indigents in the district said they had heard about COVID-19. Only 29% knew what the symptoms of the disease were. The majority claimed that they protected themselves from the virus by using preventive measures. This level of knowledge of the disease can be observed with no differences between the villages. Half of the indigents who expressed themselves agreed with government measures except for the closure of markets. An increase of over 11% can be seen in indigents without the opportunity for getting healthcare compared with before the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

This research indicates that COVID-19 is partially known and that prevention measures are not universally understood. The study contributes to reducing the fragmentation of knowledge, in particular on vulnerable and marginalized populations. Results should be useful for future interventions for the control of epidemics that aim to leave no one behind.

COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States

BACKGROUND

Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles.

METHODS

To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed.

RESULTS

Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate [Formula: see text] has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold [Formula: see text]. At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate.

CONCLUSIONS

At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions.

An Overview of Strategies to Improve Vaccination Compliance before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The debate on vaccination mandate was fuelled over the past two years by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed at overviewing vaccination strategies and corresponding vaccine coverages for childhood vaccinations before the pandemic and for SARS-CoV-2 in high-income countries. A qualitative comparison was also performed between the two contexts: unlike for childhood vaccinations, only one European country (Austria) imposed generalised COVID-19 mandates, most countries preferring targeted mandates for higher-risk categories (Italy, Greece) or workers in key public services (Finland, Australia, New Zealand, UK, Germany). Many countries (Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain) confirmed their traditional voluntary vaccination approach also for COVID-19, while others (Slovenia and Hungary), historically relying on compulsory vaccination strategies, surprisingly opted for voluntary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, with unsatisfactory results in terms of immunisation rates. However, no tangible relationship was generally found between vaccination policies and immunisation coverages: data show that, unlike some countries with mandates, countries where vaccinations are merely recommended could achieve higher coverages, even beyond the recommended 95% threshold. The COVID-19 experience has enriched pre-existent vaccination strategy debates by adding interesting elements concerning attitudes towards vaccines in a novel and unexplored context. Interpreting the available results by considering the different cultural contexts and vaccine hesitancy determinants can help to better understand the complexity of the relationship between policies and achieved coverages.

Live-attenuated YF17D-vectored COVID-19 vaccine protects from lethal yellow fever virus infection in mouse and hamster models

BACKGROUND

The live-attenuated yellow fever vaccine YF17D holds great promise as alternative viral vector vaccine platform, showcased by our previously presented potent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine candidate YF-S0. Besides protection from SARS-CoV-2, YF-S0 also induced strong yellow fever virus (YFV)-specific immunity, suggestive for full dual activity. A vaccine concomitantly protecting from SARS-CoV-2 and YFV would be of great benefit for those living in YFV-endemic areas with limited access to current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. However, for broader applicability, pre-existing vector immunity should not impact the potency of such YF17D-vectored vaccines.

METHODS

The immunogenicity and efficacy of YF-S0 against YFV and SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of strong pre-existing YFV immunity were evaluated in mouse and hamster challenge models.

FINDINGS

Here, we show that a single dose of YF-S0 is sufficient to induce strong humoral and cellular immunity against YFV as well as SARS-CoV-2 in mice and hamsters; resulting in full protection from vigorous YFV challenge in either model; in mice against lethal intracranial YF17D challenge, and in hamsters against viscerotropic infection and liver disease following challenge with highly pathogenic hamster-adapted YFV-Asibi strain. Importantly, strong pre-existing immunity against the YF17D vector did not interfere with subsequent YF-S0 vaccination in mice or hamsters; nor with protection conferred against SARS-CoV-2 strain B1.1.7 (Alpha variant) infection in hamsters.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings warrant the development of YF-S0 as dual SARS-CoV-2 and YFV vaccine. Contrary to other viral vaccine platforms, use of YF17D does not suffer from pre-existing vector immunity.

FUNDING

Stated in the acknowledgments.

Breakthrough Infections: A Challenge towards Measles Elimination?

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases known to man. Despite the existence of a safe and effective live attenuated vaccine, measles can appear in vaccinated individuals. Paradoxically, breakthrough cases increase as vaccination coverage in the general population rises. In measles endemic areas, breakthrough cases represent less than 10% of total infections, while in areas with high vaccination coverage these are over 10% of the total. Two different vaccination failures have been described: primary vaccination failure, which consists in the complete absence of humoral response and occurs in around 5% of vaccinated individuals; and secondary vaccination failure is due to waning immunity or incomplete immunity and occurs in 2–10% of vaccinees. Vaccination failures are generally associated with lower viral loads and milder disease (modified measles) since vaccination limits the risk of complicated disease. Vaccination failure seems to occur between six and twenty-six years after the last vaccine dose administration. This review summarizes the literature about clinical, serological, epidemiological, and molecular characteristics of measles breakthrough cases and their contribution to virus transmission. In view of the measles elimination goal, the assessment of the potential decline in antibody protection and the targeted implementation of catch-up vaccination are essential.

Tackling antimicrobial resistance across sub-Saharan Africa: current challenges and implications for the future

INTRODUCTION

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a concern as this increases morbidity, mortality, and costs, with sub-Saharan Africa having the highest rates globally. Concerns with rising AMR have resulted in international, Pan-African, and country activities including the development of national action plans (NAPs). However, there is variable implementation across Africa with key challenges persisting.

AREAS COVERED

Consequently, there is an urgent need to document current NAP activities and challenges across sub-Saharan Africa to provide future guidance. This builds on a narrative review of the literature.

EXPERT OPINION

All surveyed sub-Saharan African countries have developed their NAPs; however, there is variable implementation. Countries including Botswana and Namibia are yet to officially launch their NAPs with Eswatini only recently launching its NAP. Cameroon is further ahead with its NAP than these countries; though there are concerns with implementation. South Africa appears to have made the greatest strides with implementing its NAP including regular monitoring of activities and instigation of antimicrobial stewardship programs. Key challenges remain across Africa. These include available personnel, expertise, capacity, and resources to undertake agreed NAP activities including active surveillance, lack of focal points to drive NAPs, and competing demands and priorities including among donors. These challenges are being addressed, with further co-ordinated efforts needed to reduce AMR.

COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.

Vaccine equity in low and middle income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence to date has shown that inequality in health, and vaccination coverage in particular, can have ramifications to wider society. However, whilst individual studies have sought to characterise these heterogeneities in immunisation coverage at national level, few have taken a broad and quantitative view of the contributing factors to heterogeneity in immunisation coverage and impact, i.e. the number of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years averted. This systematic review aims to highlight these geographic, demographic, and sociodemographic characteristics through a qualitative and quantitative approach, vital to prioritise and optimise vaccination policies.

METHODS

A systematic review of two databases (PubMed and Web of Science) was undertaken using search terms and keywords to identify studies examining factors on immunisation inequality and heterogeneity in vaccination coverage. Inclusion criteria were applied independently by two researchers. Studies including data on key characteristics of interest were further analysed through a meta-analysis to produce a pooled estimate of the risk ratio using a random effects model for that characteristic.

RESULTS

One hundred and eight studies were included in this review. We found that inequalities in wealth, education, and geographic access can affect vaccine impact and vaccination dropout. We estimated those living in rural areas were not significantly different in terms of full vaccination status compared to urban areas but noted considerable heterogeneity between countries. We found that females were 3% (95%CI[1%, 5%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than males. Additionally, we estimated that children whose mothers had no formal education were 28% (95%CI[18%,47%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than those whose mother had primary level, or above, education. Finally, we found that individuals in the poorest wealth quintile were 27% (95%CI [16%,37%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than those in the richest.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a nuanced picture of inequality in vaccination coverage and access with wealth disparity dominating, and likely driving, other disparities. This review highlights the complex landscape of inequity and further need to design vaccination strategies targeting missed subgroups to improve and recover vaccination coverage following the COVID-19 pandemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Prospero, CRD42021261927.

Process mining-driven analysis of COVID-19's impact on vaccination patterns

Process mining is a discipline sitting between data mining and process science, whose goal is to provide theoretical methods and software tools to analyse process execution data, known as event logs. Although process mining was originally conceived to facilitate business process management activities, research studies have shown the benefit of leveraging process mining in healthcare contexts. However, applying process mining tools to analyse healthcare process execution data is not straightforward. In this paper, we show a methodology to: i) prepare general practice healthcare process data for conducting a process mining analysis; ii) select and apply suitable process mining solutions for successfully executing the analysis; and iii) extract valuable insights from the obtained results, alongside leads for traditional data mining analysis. By doing so, we identified two major challenges when using process mining solutions for analysing healthcare process data, and highlighted benefits and limitations of the state-of-the-art process mining techniques when dealing with highly variable processes and large data-sets. While we provide solutions to the identified challenges, the overarching goal of this study was to detect differences between the patients' health services utilization pattern observed in 2020-during the COVID-19 pandemic and mandatory lock-downs -and the one observed in the prior four years, 2016 to 2019. By using a combination of process mining techniques and traditional data mining, we were able to demonstrate that vaccinations in Victoria did not drop drastically-as other interactions did. On the contrary, we observed a surge of influenza and pneumococcus vaccinations in 2020, as opposed to other research findings of similar studies conducted in different geographical areas.

Modeling for the Stringency of Lock-Down Policies: Effects of Macroeconomic and Healthcare Variables in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background

The spread of COVID-19 has been characterized by unprecedented global lock-downs. Although, the extent of containment policies cannot be explained only through epidemic data. Previous studies already focused on the relationship between the economy and healthcare, focusing on the impact of diseases in countries with a precarious economic situation. However, the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 drew most countries of the world into a precarious economic situation mostly caused by the global and local lock-downs policies.

Methods

A discriminant analysis performed via partial least squares procedure was applied to evaluate the impact of economic and healthcare variables on the containment measures adopted by 39 countries. To collect the input variables (macroeconomic, healthcare, and medical services), we relied on official databases of international organizations, such as The World Bank and WHO.

Results

The stringency lock-down policies could not only be influenced by the epidemical data, but also by previous features of the selected countries, such as economic and healthcare conditions.

Conclusions

Indeed, economic and healthcare variables also contributed to shaping the implemented lock-down policies.

Differential health impact of intervention programs for time-varying disease risk: a measles vaccination modeling study

BACKGROUND

Dynamic modeling is commonly used to evaluate direct and indirect effects of interventions on infectious disease incidence. The risk of secondary outcomes (e.g., death) attributable to infection may depend on the underlying disease incidence targeted by the intervention. Consequently, the impact of interventions (e.g., the difference in vaccination and no-vaccination scenarios) on secondary outcomes may not be proportional to the reduction in disease incidence. Here, we illustrate the estimation of the impact of vaccination on measles mortality, where case fatality ratios (CFRs) are a function of dynamically changing measles incidence.

METHODS

We used a previously published model of measles CFR that depends on incidence and vaccine coverage to illustrate the effects of (1) assuming higher CFR in "no-vaccination" scenarios, (2) time-varying CFRs over the past, and (3) time-varying CFRs in future projections on measles impact estimation. We used modeled CFRs in alternative scenarios to estimate measles deaths from 2000 to 2030 in 112 low- and middle-income countries using two models of measles transmission: Pennsylvania State University (PSU) and DynaMICE. We evaluated how different assumptions on future vaccine coverage, measles incidence, and CFR levels in "no-vaccination" scenarios affect the estimation of future deaths averted by measles vaccination.

RESULTS

Across 2000-2030, when CFRs are separately estimated for the "no-vaccination" scenario, the measles deaths averted estimated by PSU increased from 85.8% with constant CFRs to 86.8% with CFRs varying 2000-2018 and then held constant or 85.9% with CFRs varying across the entire time period and by DynaMICE changed from 92.0 to 92.4% or 91.9% in the same scenarios, respectively. By aligning both the "vaccination" and "no-vaccination" scenarios with time-variant measles CFR estimates, as opposed to assuming constant CFRs, the number of deaths averted in the vaccination scenarios was larger in historical years and lower in future years.

CONCLUSIONS

To assess the consequences of health interventions, impact estimates should consider the effect of "no-intervention" scenario assumptions on model parameters, such as measles CFR, in order to project estimated impact for alternative scenarios according to intervention strategies and investment decisions.

Yellow Fever: Origin, Epidemiology, Preventive Strategies and Future Prospects

Yellow fever (YF) virus still represents a major threat in low resource countries in both South America and Africa despite the presence of an effective vaccine. YF outbreaks are not only due to insufficient vaccine coverage for insufficient vaccine supply, but also to the increase in people without history of vaccination living in endemic areas. Globalization, continuous population growth, urbanization associated with inadequate public health infrastructure, and climate changes constitute important promoting factors for the spread of this virus to tropical and subtropical areas in mosquito-infested regions capable of spreading the disease. In the present review, we focus on the origin of the virus and its transmission, representing two debated topics throughout the nineteenth century, going deeply into the history of YF vaccines until the development of the vaccine still used nowadays. Besides surveillance, we highlight the urgent need of routine immunization and vaccination campaigns associated to diverse and innovative mosquito control technologies in endemic areas for YF virus in order to minimize the risk of new YF outbreaks and the global burden of YF in the future.

Management of Children Admitted to Hospitals across Bangladesh with Suspected or Confirmed COVID-19 and the Implications for the Future: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

There is an increasing focus on researching children admitted to hospital with new variants of COVID-19, combined with concerns with hyperinflammatory syndromes and the overuse of antimicrobials. Paediatric guidelines have been produced in Bangladesh to improve their care. Consequently, the objective is to document the management of children with COVID-19 among 24 hospitals in Bangladesh. Key outcome measures included the percentage prescribed different antimicrobials, adherence to paediatric guidelines and mortality rates using purposely developed report forms. The majority of 146 admitted children were aged 5 years or under (62.3%) and were boys (58.9%). Reasons for admission included fever, respiratory distress and coughing; 86.3% were prescribed antibiotics, typically parenterally, on the WHO ‘Watch’ list, and empirically (98.4%). There were no differences in antibiotic use whether hospitals followed paediatric guidance or not. There was no prescribing of antimalarials and limited prescribing of antivirals (5.5% of children) and antiparasitic medicines (0.7%). The majority of children (92.5%) made a full recovery. It was encouraging to see the low hospitalisation rates and limited use of antimalarials, antivirals and antiparasitic medicines. However, the high empiric use of antibiotics, alongside limited switching to oral formulations, is a concern that can be addressed by instigating the appropriate programmes.

COVID-19 Impact on Disparity in Childhood Immunization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Through the Lens of Historical Pandemics

Purpose of Review

The COVID-19 pandemic, since 2020, has affected health care services and access globally. Although the entire impact of COVID-19 pandemic on existing global public health is yet to be fully seen, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global childhood immunization programs is of particular importance.

Recent Findings

Disruptions to service delivery due to lockdowns, challenges in vaccination programs, vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and political and social economic inequalities all posed a threat to existing childhood immunization programs. These potential threats were especially critical in LMIC where childhood immunization programs tend to experience suboptimal implementation.

Summary

This review provides an overview of childhood immunizations and discusses past pandemics particularly in LMIC, factors contributing to disparities in childhood immunizations, and reviews potential lessons to be learned from past pandemics. Vaccine hesitancy, social determinants of health, and best practices to help lessen the pandemic's influence are also further elaborated. To address current challenges that hindered the progress made in prevention of childhood illnesses through vaccination campaigns and increased vaccine availability, lessons learned through best practices explored from past pandemics must be examined to mitigate impact of COVID-19 on childhood immunization and in turn conserve health and improve economic well-being of children especially in LMIC.

A national, multicentre web-based point prevalence survey of antimicrobial use and quality indices among hospitalised paediatric patients across South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Data on antimicrobial consumption among the paediatric population in public hospitals in South Africa is limited. These needs to be addressed to improve future use and reduce antimicrobial resistance rates. Consequently, the objective is to quantify antimicrobial usage;and identify and classify which antimicrobials are used in the peadiatric population in public sector hospitals in South Africa according to World Health Organiosation (WHO) AWaRe list of antimicrobials METHODS: Conduct a point prevalence survey among 18 public sector hospitals from nine provinces using a newly developed web-based application. The data will be analysed according to the WHO AwaRe list to guide future quality improvement programmes.

RESULTS

1261 paediatric patient files were reviewed with 49.7% (627/1261) receiving at least one antimicrobial, with 1013 antimicrobials prescribed overall. The top five antimicrobials included ampicillin (16.4%), gentamycin (10.0%), amoxicillin and enzyme inhibitor (9.6%), ceftriaxone (7.4%), and amikacin (6.3%). Antimicrobials from the Access classification were the most used (55.9%) with 3.1% being from the Reserve classification. The most common infectious conditions were pneumonia (21.3%; 148/1013) and clinical sepsis (16.0%; 111/1013). Parenteral administration (75.6%) and prolonged surgical prophylaxis (66.7%; 10/15) were common and concerns. 28% of the paediatric patients had cultures requested for them before antimicrobial treatment (284/1013) however only 38.7% (110/284) of culture results were available in the files.

CONCLUSION

Overall, antimicrobial prescribing is common among paediatric patients in South Africa. Interventions should be targeted at improving antimicrobial prescribing, including surgical prophylaxis, and encouraging greater use of oral antibiotics.

Surveillance and control of meningococcal disease in the COVID-19 era: A Global Meningococcal Initiative review

This review article incorporates information from the 4th Global Meningococcal Initiative summit meeting. Since the introduction of stringent COVID-19 infection control and lockdown measures globally in 2020, there has been an impact on IMD prevalence, surveillance, and vaccination compliance. Incidence rates and associated mortality fell across various regions during 2020. A reduction in vaccine uptake during 2020 remains a concern globally. In addition, several Neisseria meningitidis clonal complexes, particularly CC4821 and CC11, continue to exhibit resistance to antibiotics, with resistance to ciprofloxacin or beta-lactams mainly linked to modifications of gyrA or penA alleles, respectively. Beta-lactamase acquisition was also reported through horizontal gene transfer (bla_ROB-1) involving other bacterial species. Despite the challenges over the past year, progress has also been made on meningococcal vaccine development, with several pentavalent (serogroups ABCWY and ACWYX) vaccines currently being studied in late-stage clinical trial programmes.

Effect of evidence updates on key determinants of measles vaccination impact: a DynaMICE modelling study in ten high-burden countries

BACKGROUND

Model-based estimates of measles burden and the impact of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) are crucial for global health priority setting. Recently, evidence from systematic reviews and database analyses have improved our understanding of key determinants of MCV impact. We explore how representations of these determinants affect model-based estimation of vaccination impact in ten countries with the highest measles burden.

METHODS

Using Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), we modelled the effect of evidence updates for five determinants of MCV impact: case-fatality risk, contact patterns, age-dependent vaccine efficacy, the delivery of supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) to zero-dose children, and the basic reproduction number. We assessed the incremental vaccination impact of the first (MCV1) and second (MCV2) doses of routine immunisation and SIAs, using metrics of total vaccine-averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 2000-2050. We also conducted a scenario capturing the effect of COVID-19 related disruptions on measles burden and vaccination impact.

RESULTS

Incorporated with the updated data sources, DynaMICE projected 253 million measles cases, 3.8 million deaths and 233 million DALYs incurred over 2000-2050 in the ten high-burden countries when MCV1, MCV2, and SIA doses were implemented. Compared to no vaccination, MCV1 contributed to 66% reduction in cumulative measles cases, while MCV2 and SIAs reduced this further to 90%. Among the updated determinants, shifting from fixed to linearly-varying vaccine efficacy by age and from static to time-varying case-fatality risks had the biggest effect on MCV impact. While varying the basic reproduction number showed a limited effect, updates on the other four determinants together resulted in an overall reduction of vaccination impact by 0.58%, 26.2%, and 26.7% for cases, deaths, and DALYs averted, respectively. COVID-19 related disruptions to measles vaccination are not likely to change the influence of these determinants on MCV impact, but may lead to a 3% increase in cases over 2000-2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating updated evidence particularly on vaccine efficacy and case-fatality risk reduces estimates of vaccination impact moderately, but its overall impact remains considerable. High MCV coverage through both routine immunisation and SIAs remains essential for achieving and maintaining low incidence in high measles burden settings.

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk during delivery of childhood vaccination campaigns: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the delivery of immunisation services globally. Many countries have postponed vaccination campaigns out of concern about infection risks to the staff delivering vaccination, the children being vaccinated, and their families. The World Health Organization recommends considering both the benefit of preventive campaigns and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when making decisions about campaigns during COVID-19 outbreaks, but there has been little quantification of the risks.

METHODS

We modelled excess SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators, vaccinees, and their caregivers resulting from vaccination campaigns delivered during a COVID-19 epidemic. Our model used population age structure and contact patterns from three exemplar countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Brazil). It combined an existing compartmental transmission model of an underlying COVID-19 epidemic with a Reed-Frost model of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators and vaccinees. We explored how excess risk depends on key parameters governing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, and aspects of campaign delivery such as campaign duration, number of vaccinations, and effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and symptomatic screening.

RESULTS

Infection risks differ considerably depending on the circumstances in which vaccination campaigns are conducted. A campaign conducted at the peak of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with high prevalence and without special infection mitigation measures could increase absolute infection risk by 32 to 45% for vaccinators and 0.3 to 0.5% for vaccinees and caregivers. However, these risks could be reduced to 3.6 to 5.3% and 0.1 to 0.2% respectively by use of PPE that reduces transmission by 90% (as might be achieved with N95 respirators or high-quality surgical masks) and symptomatic screening.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 infection risks to vaccinators, vaccinees, and caregivers during vaccination campaigns can be greatly reduced by adequate PPE, symptomatic screening, and appropriate campaign timing. Our results support the use of adequate risk mitigation measures for vaccination campaigns held during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, rather than cancelling them entirely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk during delivery of childhood vaccination campaigns: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted delivery of immunisation services globally. Many countries have postponed vaccination campaigns out of concern about infection risks to staff delivering vaccination, the children being vaccinated and their families. The World Health Organization recommends considering both the benefit of preventive campaigns and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when making decisions about campaigns during COVID-19 outbreaks, but there has been little quantification of the risks.

METHODS

We modelled excess SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators, vaccinees and their caregivers resulting from vaccination campaigns delivered during a COVID-19 epidemic. Our model used population age-structure and contact patterns from three exemplar countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Brazil). It combined an existing compartmental transmission model of an underlying COVID-19 epidemic with a Reed-Frost model of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators and vaccinees. We explored how excess risk depends on key parameters governing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, and aspects of campaign delivery such as campaign duration, number of vaccinations, and effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and symptomatic screening.

RESULTS

Infection risks differ considerably depending on the circumstances in which vaccination campaigns are conducted. A campaign conducted at the peak of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with high prevalence and without special infection mitigation measures could increase absolute infection risk by 32% to 45% for vaccinators, and 0.3% to 0.5% for vaccinees and caregivers. However, these risks could be reduced to 3.6% to 5.3% and 0.1% to 0.2% respectively by use of PPE that reduces transmission by 90% (as might be achieved with N95 respirators or high-quality surgical masks) and symptomatic screening.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 infection risks to vaccinators, vaccinees and caregivers during vaccination campaigns can be greatly reduced by adequate PPE, symptomatic screening, and appropriate campaign timing. Our results support the use of adequate risk mitigation measures for vaccination campaigns held during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, rather than cancelling them entirely.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Lessons for and from the COVID-19 pandemic response - An appraisal of guidance for the public health management of Invasive Meningococcal Disease

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has focussed public attention on the management of communicable disease like never before. Surveillance, contact tracing, and case management are recognised as key components of outbreak prevention. Development of guidance for COVID-19 has drawn from existing management of other communicable diseases, including Invasive Meningococcal Disease (IMD). IMD is a rare but severe outcome of Neisseria meningitidis infection that can be prevented through vaccination. Cases still occur sporadically, requiring ongoing surveillance and consistent management. To this end, national and international public health agencies have developed and published guidance for identification and management of IMD cases.

AIM

To assess national and international guidelines for the public health management of IMD, with a focus on the recommendations for identification and management of "close contacts" to IMD cases.

METHODS

Guidelines from six national and international public health agencies were assessed using a modified version of the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) Instrument in four key domains: stakeholder involvement, developmental rigour, clarity, and applicability. A direct comparison of terminology and recommendations for identification and management of close contacts to IMD cases was also conducted.

RESULTS

Guidelines from Europe and the United Kingdom rated most highly using the AGREE II Instrument, both presenting a clear, critical assessment of the strength of the available evidence, and the risks, costs, and benefits behind recommendations for management of close contacts. Direct comparison of guidelines identified inconsistencies in the language defining close contacts to IMD cases.

CONCLUSION

Discrepancies between guidelines could be due to limited evidence concerning mechanisms behind disease transmission, along with the lack of a consistent process for development and review of guideline recommendations. COVID-19 management has demonstrated that international collaboration for development of public health guidance is possible, a practice that should be extended to management of other communicable diseases.