Youth Exposure to Recreational Cannabis Legalization: Moderation of Effects by Sex and Parental Cannabis Use during Adolescence

OBJECTIVE

Few studies of recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) have assessed adolescents both before and after RCL or considered moderators of RCL effects. The present study tested whether RCL was more strongly associated with cannabis use for girls and among youth whose parents had a history of cannabis use during adolescence.

METHOD

Data were pooled from 940 adolescents from three intergenerational studies that began in Washington (where RCL was enacted in 2012), Oregon (RCL year = 2015), and New York (RCL year = 2021). Youth were assessed repeatedly from ages 13 to 18 years (k = 3,650 person-years) from 1999 to 2020 (prior to RCL in New York). Parent cannabis use at or before age 18 years (yes/no) was assessed prospectively during the parent's adolescence. Multilevel models focused on the between-subjects effects of years of youth exposure to RCL on adolescents' mean cannabis use likelihood, and interactions with child sex and parent use history.

RESULTS

Child exposure to RCL was associated with a higher likelihood of cannabis use if their parents had a history of adolescent use, (Estimate [SE] = 0.67 [0.25], p = 0.008), versus no such history (Estimate [SE] = -0.05 [0.28], p = 0.855). RCL effects were not moderated by child sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of RCL on adolescents' cannabis use may depend on their parents' history of using the drug. Identifying other moderators of RCL effects, and understanding the mechanisms of these risks and the ways that parents and communities can offset them, are prevention priorities.

The Co-Occurrence of Conduct Problems and Depressive Symptoms From Childhood to Adulthood for Men: Stability Over Time and Prediction to Substance Use

The dual pathway hypothesis of risk for substance use was tested by examining risk from symptoms of conduct problems and depressive symptoms in adolescence (from ages 10-11 to 17-18 years) to substance use-including tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, and other illicit drugs-in both early adulthood (approximately from ages 20 to 29 years) and middle adulthood (approximately from ages 29 to 38 years). Hypotheses were tested on a sample of boys who were at risk for conduct problems by virtue of the neighborhoods where they lived in childhood (the Oregon Youth Study; N = 206 at Wave 1). Dual-trajectory modeling (Latent Class Analysis) resulted in a 3-group solution of high, moderate, and low co-occurring symptoms. The latent class of boys with co-occurring symptoms in adolescence showed higher levels of substance use in adulthood; namely, higher levels of cannabis and illicit substance use during early adulthood compared to either of the moderate or low symptom classes, and higher use of cannabis in midadulthood than the low symptom class. Those with co-occurring symptoms also showed, overall, higher vulnerability to use of tobacco in these 2 periods, but not to higher use of alcohol. Regression analyses indicated that the higher substance use of the co-occur group of men was related to their adolescent conduct problems, but was not related to their adolescent depressive symptoms; however, these associations were nonsignificant when adolescent use of the respective substances were included in the models. Thus, the dual-trajectory hypothesis was not supported. However, the findings indicated that, as assessed in the present study, the psychopathology symptoms of boys with conduct problems in adolescence who show risk for later substance use may be complex, involving depressive symptoms.

Commentary: The roles of mothers versus fathers in intergenerational family risk - a commentary on Rothenberg et al. (2023)

Basic research studies in the past 2 decades have established that conduct problems and antisocial behavior are associated across generations within families. The Fast Track study represents a major prevention effort with children showing higher levels of conduct problems in childhood, and the Rothenberg et al. (Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 2022) study sheds light on whether this intervention has beneficial effects on the family of procreation. In this commentary, we consider the implications of the major finding that such effects were found for women but not for men. We discuss evidence that men's parenting behavior is influenced by the parenting behavior and overall risk of their women partners, and thus preventive interventions in childhood may have beneficial influences on fathers through mothers.

Effects of Cannabis Legalization on Adolescent Cannabis Use Across 3 Studies

INTRODUCTION

Canada, Uruguay, and 18 states in the U.S. have legalized the use of nonmedical (recreational) cannabis for adults, yet the impact of legalization on adolescent cannabis use remains unclear. This study examined whether cannabis legalization for adults predicted changes in the probability of cannabis use among adolescents aged 13-18 years.

METHODS

Data were drawn from 3 longitudinal studies of youth (spanning 1999-2020) centered in 3 U.S. states: Oregon, New York, and Washington. During this time, Oregon (2015) and Washington (2012) passed cannabis legalization; New York did not. In each study, youth average age was 15 years (total N=940; 49%-56% female, 11%-81% Black/African American and/or Latinx). Multilevel modeling (in 2021) of repeated measures tested whether legalization predicted within- or between-person change in past-year cannabis use or use frequency over time.

RESULTS

Change in legalization status across adolescence was not significantly related to within-person change in the probability or frequency of self-reported past-year cannabis use. At the between-person level, youth who spent more of their adolescence under legalization were no more or less likely to have used cannabis at age 15 years than adolescents who spent little or no time under legalization.

CONCLUSIONS

This study addresses several limitations of repeated cross-sectional studies of the impact of cannabis legalization on adolescent cannabis use. Findings are not consistent with changes in the prevalence or frequency of adolescent cannabis use after legalization. Ongoing surveillance and analyses of subpopulations are recommended.

Associations between partner violence, parenting, and children's adjustment: A dyadic framework

To date, our knowledge of the effects of exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) on children's functioning via parenting have relied on individual approaches, effectively placing parents outside of a relationship context, and greatly neglecting to incorporate fathers. The present study addresses these gaps by utilizing a dyadic model to assess how mothers' and fathers' psychological and physical IPV perpetration in early childhood (age 5 years) predicts both their own and each other's parenting in midchildhood (age 7 years) and, in turn, children's social and scholastic competence in late childhood (ages 11-12 years). Such models reflect the current consensus that bidirectional IPV is the most common pattern among couples. The present study involved 175 children (87 females) of 105 mothers and 102 fathers who were originally in the Oregon Youth Study (OYS, N = 206). Simple mediation results suggest maternal involvement in parenting is an important mediational mechanism for the relation between maternal IPV as a perpetrator and victim and childhood competencies. Similarly, father's involvement with parenting served as a mediational mechanism for social competence but only for his own IPV perpetration. Dyadic actor-partner models with maternal and paternal parenting yielded few significant mediational pathways, which is likely partially due to strong shared variance across partners in both IPV and parenting, leaving little unique variance. Overall, results indicated that father's IPV perpetration adds valuable information in explaining child adjustment. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Associations of Cannabis Use across Adolescence and Early Adulthood With Health and Psychosocial Adjustment in Early Adulthood and Midadulthood in Men

Background:

Associations between men’s prior cannabis use and their physical and psychosocial adjustment were examined using prospective data across adolescence (ages 13-20 years), early adulthood (ages 20-30 years), and midadulthood (ages 30-38 years). The theoretical framework was based in developmental-contextual and lifespan approaches.

Method:

Models were tested using men in the Oregon Youth Study who had been studied since ages 9 to 10 years and who, in childhood, lived in neighborhoods with higher than average rates of delinquency. Cannabis use in adolescence was used to predict early adult outcomes (and early adult use to midadult outcomes). In addition, a set of covariates was added to the models, including childhood risk factors assessed at age 9 years (ie, family socioeconomic status; externalizing behaviors; and if available, the childhood proxy for the outcome [eg, age 9 intelligence scale]) and alcohol use in adolescence (or early adulthood). physical health outcomes included accidental injuries, problems resulting from a prior injury, body mass index, self-report health, and also pain and cardiovascular risk (blood pressure and pulse rate) in midadulthood. Psychosocial outcomes included income, housing insecurity, intelligence, depressive symptoms, psychosis symptoms, hostility/aggression, social problems, and attention problems.

Results:

Whereas there was almost no prediction from prior cannabis use to the physical health outcomes, there were comprehensive associations of cannabis use from the prior developmental period and psychosocial outcomes in both early adulthood and midadulthood.

Conclusion:

Cannabis use in prior developmental periods was associated with a broad range of types of poor psychosocial adjustment in adulthood.

Intergenerational Associations in Crime for an At-Risk Sample of US Men: Factors that May Mitigate or Exacerbate Transmission

PURPOSE

To examine moderation of intergenerational transmission of crime and antisocial behavior of parents to adult arrests of sons (from age 18 years to ages 37-38 years). Moderators examined were from late childhood (constructive parenting and sons' inhibitory control, internalizing symptoms, and cognitive function), adolescence (delinquency and deviant peer association), and early adulthood (educational achievement, employment history, substance use, deviant peer association, and partner antisocial behavior).

METHODS

Study participants were parents and sons (N = 206) from the longitudinal Oregon Youth Study, recruited from schools in the higher crime areas of a medium-sized metropolitan region in the Pacific Northwest. Assessment included official arrest records, school data, interviews, and questionnaires.

RESULTS

As hypothesized, parents' and sons' histories of two or more arrests were significantly associated. Predictions of sons' arrests from a broader construct of parental antisocial behavior were significantly moderated by sons' late childhood cognitive function and early adult employment history, substance use, and romantic partner's antisocial behavior. Overall, there was relatively little intergenerational association in crime at low levels of these moderators.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicate relatively large intergenerational associations in crime. The identified moderators may be used as selection criteria or targeted in prevention and treatment efforts aimed at reducing such associations.

Long-term effects of father involvement in childhood on their son's physiological stress regulation system in adulthood

Using a long-term prospective longitudinal study of U.S. men and their fathers, the present study examined the extent to which the quantity (i.e., shared activities between fathers and sons) and the quality (i.e., assessors' ratings of fathers' positive behaviors toward sons and the relationship quality between fathers and sons) of father involvement during childhood influenced sons' diurnal patterns of salivary cortisol in adulthood (late 30s) directly and indirectly through substance use across the 20s. Findings indicated that the quantity of father involvement during childhood was directly associated with sons' diurnal cortisol patterns assessed almost 30 years later. Specifically, the quantity of father involvement in childhood significantly increased the intercept (i.e., upon awakening) and also led to a greater reduction in cortisol across the day, suggesting a well-regulated diurnal cortisol pattern. The quantity of father involvement significantly reduced the amount of sons' illicit drug and tobacco use across the 20s. Tobacco use across the 20s was associated with a lower cortisol intercept level (upon awakening), although the mediating path was not significant. The present study provided empirical evidence demonstrating long-term physiological and behavioral consequences of father involvement in childhood and its potency as a crucial early caregiving environment for sons.

Introduction to the special section on the intergenerational transmission of risk for substance use

Six original research papers were submitted to this Special Section to address questions regarding the intergenerational transmission of risk for cannabis and other substance use. Study teams recruited youth in Iowa, Washington, Oregon, New York, and Arizona in the 1980s-1990s, assessed them into adulthood, and recruited their partners and offspring for another study. All of the studies assessed substance use in 2 or more generations. Other strengths in this section include the strong representation of fathers, the demographic diversity of the samples as a whole, and the demonstrations of varied statistical and replication approaches. The findings highlight features of parental histories of cannabis use during adolescence that are associated with their children's risk for cannabis use and factors that explain or weaken intergenerational similarities. Two groups of prevention scholars also offered commentaries on the implications of these studies for prevention and training, and collaboration. It is hoped that the Special Section will stimulate new hypotheses, replications, and communication among etiological and prevention researchers. Furthermore, the papers highlight that the familial transmission of substance use risk should be taken into account more fully in the design of prevention programs to maximize impacts for youth as well as their future offspring. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Intergenerational associations in onset of cannabis use during adolescence: A data synthesis approach

The present study examined associations between parents' and their children's ages of onset of cannabis use using a data synthesis methodology to pool data from 3 similarly designed intergenerational studies. Regarding age of first use of cannabis, prospective data were collected at one or more assessments from early to late adolescence in each generation. The extent to which parent and offspring gender separately or jointly moderated intergenerational effects was examined. Data were harmonized from studies originating in the states of Washington (Bailey, Hill, Epstein, Steeger, & Hawkins, 2018), New York (Thornberry, Henry, Krohn, Lizotte, & Nadel, 2018), and Oregon (Capaldi, Kerr, & Tiberio, 2018) when the parents were in late childhood to early adolescence; analyses concerned 1,081 parents and their children from 971 unique families. Parents' and their children's age of cannabis use onset during adolescence were modeled using discrete-time survival analysis techniques. Although data were successfully synthesized across the studies, the primary hypothesis was not supported: parents' earlier age of first cannabis use during adolescence was not significantly associated with earlier onset of cannabis use in the offspring generation. Rather, parents' histories of any cannabis use in adolescence-regardless of timing-were linked with increased risk for early onset cannabis use by their children compared to parents with no history of use during adolescence. There were no significant parent, child, or parent-by-child gender moderation effects. Thus, prevention of adolescent onset of cannabis in one generation may have prevention benefits for the next. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Associations of exposure to intimate partner violence and parent-to-child aggression with child competence and psychopathology symptoms in two generations

BACKGROUND

Associations of exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and parent-to-child aggression (PCA) with child adjustment have not been examined adequately for community samples.

OBJECTIVE

To examine main, cumulative, and interactive associations of IPV and PCA (separately for physical and psychological aggression) with four aspects of child adjustment (i.e., externalizing and internalizing behavior; social and scholastic competence). Associations were examined between (a) G1 parent behavior and the adjustment of G2 boys (N = 203) at ages 13-14 years and (b) G2 parent behavior and the adjustment of G3 children (N = 294) at ages 4-5 and 11-12 years.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Families in a prospective, multigenerational dataset.

METHODS

Measures included reports by caregivers, children, and teachers. Cross-sectional regression models (controlling for parent socioeconomic status and G3 child gender) examined: (a) main effects of IPV or PCA, (b) the simultaneous (i.e., cumulative) effects of both IPV and PCA, and (c) interactive effects of IPV and PCA (sample size permitting) on each of the child adjustment outcomes.

RESULTS

When considered simultaneously, PCA (but not IPV) was associated with each aspect of child adjustment. The interaction between PCA and IPV indicated lower G2 adolescent scholastic competence and greater G3 preschool externalizing behavior for children exposed to lower levels of IPV and higher levels of PCA.

CONCLUSION

Psychological and physical PCA were associated with child adjustment problems even when accounting for IPV. Findings support the use of evidence-based programs to prevent PCA and PCA-associated child adjustment problems.

Paternal and maternal prescription opioid use and misuse: General and specific risks for early adolescents' substance use

BACKGROUND

Parent substance use is a risk factor early adolescents' substance use. Theoretical models of deviance and general substance use risk may not apply to risk-transmission pathways involving parents' prescription opioid misuse (POM) and child outcomes. Thus, we examined predictions of children's alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana (ATM) use in early adolescence, from parental POM, delinquency, depressive symptoms, and ATM use.

METHOD

Children (n = 216; 121 female) participated from early childhood to ages 11-12 or 13-14 years with their 111 fathers and 136 mothers. At all available waves, self-reports were collected on each parents' POM, ATM, prescription opioid use (POU), depressive symptoms, and delinquent behavior, and children's ATM use.

RESULTS

Poisson regressions were run separately by parent, controlled for child age and gender and paternal age at child's birth, and accounted for clustering of children in families. Child ATM use was predicted by paternal POM, but the effect was better explained by paternal ATM use, which was a stronger effect in families with higher father-child residential contact. In contrast and unexpectedly, mothers' POU but not POM predicted child ATM use, and the effect was not explained by the significant predictions from maternal ATM use and delinquency.

CONCLUSION

Fathers' POM and mothers' POU predicted child ATM use by early adolescence. Findings generally were consistent with parent-child risk-transmission processes described for other substances. Resident fathers' substance use and multiple maternal risk factors are worthy foci for prevention of the intergenerational transmission of substance use.

Intergenerational congruence in adolescent onset of alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use

We examined alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana (ATM) use onset across early to late adolescence in a sample of fathers and their offspring. We tested a theory of developmental congruence in polysubstance use, or the extent to which fathers' ATM use onset in early adolescence increased risk for earlier ATM onset by their offspring. Average rates of adolescent ATM use onset were also compared across generations, which may reflect intergenerational discontinuity and secular trends. Children (n = 223, 44% boys) and their fathers (n = 113; originally recruited as boys at neighborhood risk for delinquency) contributed repeated prospective self-reports of their ATM use across adolescence (as late as age 18 years). Mothers' ATM use (retrospective) through age 18 years was available for 205 children. Data were analyzed using discrete-time survival mixture analysis. Compared with their fathers, boys and girls showed later onset for tobacco use, and girls showed later onset alcohol use. Developmental congruence was partially supported: Children showed earlier ATM use onset if their fathers were assigned to the early adolescent polysubstance use onset class, compared to the late-adolescent predominantly alcohol and tobacco onset class; mothers' ATM use in adolescence attenuated this effect. Consistent with national secular trends, rates of adolescent onset tobacco and alcohol use declined across generations, whereas marijuana use onset did not. However, there was intergenerational transmission of risk for early polysubstance use onset. Prevention that delays early substance use may have early life span effects as well as transgenerational implications. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Men's misuse of prescription opioids from early to middle adulthood: An examination of developmental and concurrent prediction models

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of misuse of prescription opioids across adulthood and the associations of such misuse with symptoms of psychopathology and use of other substances were examined for an at-risk community sample of men.

METHOD

For a longitudinal study of boys (N = 206) followed to adulthood, misuse of prescription opioids was assessed on 13 occasions from ages 20-21 years to 37-38 years. Prediction of misuse was examined from prospectively assessed risk factors in 3 models: (a) parental substance use during the men's adolescence; (b) the men's own risk behaviors in adolescence-delinquent behavior, depressive symptoms, and use of tobacco, alcohol, marijuana, and opioids; and (c) within- and between-individual effects of the men's risk behaviors during adulthood.

RESULTS

Opioid misuse was reported by 29% of men. After accounting for effects of age and considered individually, parent marijuana use and all of the adolescent and adult risk factors (except adolescent depressive symptoms) were significant between-individual predictors of opioid misuse. Furthermore, within-individual prediction was significant for adult delinquency and alcohol use after accounting for increases in opioid misuse with age. When risk factors were tested simultaneously, men's adult delinquency and use of marijuana and tobacco remained significant between-individual predictors, whereas no parental or adolescent risk factors remained significant in these models.

CONCLUSION

Both adolescent and adult risk factors were examined that predicted adult opioid misuse. Preventing adolescent problem behavior and using such histories to inform screening for misuse risk in adulthood may reduce the burden of the opioid crisis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Mediation analysis with binary outcomes: Direct and indirect effects of pro-alcohol influences on alcohol use disorders

A risk factor or intervention (an independent variable) may influence a substance abuse outcome (the dependent variable) indirectly, by affecting an intervening variable (a mediator) that in turn affects that outcome. Mediation analysis is a statistical method commonly used to examine the interrelations among independent, mediating, and dependent variables to obtain the direct and indirect effects of an independent variable on a continuous dependent variable. However, mediation analysis may also be used with binary outcomes, such as a diagnosis of an alcohol use disorder (AUD). Study 1 demonstrated methods of mediation analysis with binary outcomes by examining the direct and indirect effects of pro-alcohol social influences on an AUD, as a function of: (a) the distribution of the independent variable (binary vs. continuous), (b) the frequency of the outcome (non-rare vs. rare), and (c) the effect metric (probability vs. odds ratio). Study 2 was a Monte Carlo (simulation) study of bias in the indirect effects based on estimates from the first study. These methods have wide applicability in addictions research because many key outcomes are binary, and mediation analysis is frequently used to study the causal mechanisms by which interventions and risk factors affect substance abuse.

Peer teasing experiences of fathers and their children: Intergenerational associations and transmission mechanisms

Being the victim or perpetrator of peer teasing threatens children's immediate and long-term well-being. Given that many individual and contextual risk factors for peer victimization are transmitted within families, we tested whether fathers' childhood victimization experiences were directly or indirectly (via poor parenting and poor child adjustment) associated with their children's increased risk for similar experiences. Generation two (G2) fathers (n = 130) who had been assessed since age 9 years participated in an intergenerational study with their 268 G3 children and the 163 G2 mothers of these children. Peer teasing ratings were collected annually from G1 mothers, fathers, and teachers across G2 ages 9-16 years, and from the same three informant types across the same ages for G3 children. Also assessed was G2 fathers' poor parenting of G3 at ages 3-7 years and G3 poor adjustment (externalizing and internalizing behaviors, deviant peer association, low social competence) and body mass index (BMI) at ages 7-16 years. Models supported intergenerational stability in being teased that was partially mediated through G2 fathers' poor parenting and G3 poor adjustment. A direct intergenerational path in being teased remained significant, and G3 BMI uniquely predicted being teased. Childhood peer victimization is perpetuated across generations. Prevention aimed at poor parenting, child poor adjustment, and peer victimization itself may disrupt intergenerational stability in these adverse experiences.

Assessing Associations in Substance Use across Three Generations: From Grandparents to Sons and from Sons to Their Children

The Three Generational Study (3GS) began in the early 90s and involves the third generation (G3) offspring of second generation (G2) fathers who were originally recruited in 1984 as part of the Oregon Youth Study (OYS) in mid childhood (ages 9-10 years) along with their first- generation (G1) parents. As boys, the G2 fathers lived in higher delinquency neighborhoods of a medium-sized Pacific Northwestern United States city. The OYS-3GS examines questions concerning socially mediated intergenerational transmission versus discontinuity (or moderation) of antisocial behavior, substance use, and related problem behaviors. Questions address influences of the grandparents, or Generation 1 (G1), on their sons in G2 and in turn of these sons and their partners on their own children in G3. In this article, we present an overview of the study design-and underlying theory-related to general and outcome-specific transmission pathways. We then summarize key issues and findings to date related to the current main focus of the study regarding intergenerational associations in substance use.

Intergenerational Associations in Sexual Onset: Mediating Influences of Parental and Peer Sexual Teasing and Youth Substance Use

PURPOSE

The prospective intergenerational association between fathers' age of onset of sexual intercourse and their son's or daughter's age of onset of oral sex or intercourse up to 30 years later was examined using survival analyses across child ages 11-12 years to 17-18 years. In addition, novel constructs of parental and peer sexual teasing (at ages 11-12 years) and general risk factors of child substance use onset (alcohol and marijuana) before or concurrent with sexual onset were assessed as predictors of children's sexual onset and mediators of intergenerational associations.

METHODS

Hypotheses were tested using the Oregon Youth Study Intergenerational sample, including 100 fathers and 176 children (46% girls).

RESULTS

Univariate findings indicated that children were at risk for earlier sexual onset, provided their fathers had onset of sex at younger ages; in addition, child alcohol and marijuana onset and parental, but not peer, sexual teasing predicted earlier age of sexual onset for children. Multivariate findings indicated that child alcohol onset fully mediated the intergenerational association in age of sexual onset, whereas parental teasing and child marijuana onset did not explain the intergenerational association.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings of intergenerational associations in risk of sexual onset indicate that mechanisms of this association should be further examined. Substance use onset also confers risk for earlier child sexual onset, with alcohol use onset accounting for intergenerational associations; thus, substance use onset should be a prime target for prevention. Parental sexual teasing warrants further study as a mechanism related to possibly unintended encouragement of youth's early sexual onset.

Young men's suicidal behavior, depression, crime, and substance use risks linked to childhood teasing

The consequences in adulthood of bullying, teasing, and other peer victimization experiences in childhood rarely have been considered in prospective studies. Studies of peer victimization are mixed regarding whether negative outcomes are explained by pre-existing child vulnerabilities. Furthermore, replication of prior studies with broader definitions and other methods and demographic groups is needed. Based on mother, father, and teacher reports at ages 10-12 years, we classified American boys (n=206) from higher delinquency neighborhoods as perpetrators of teasing, victims, perpetrator-victims, or uninvolved (n=26, 35, 29, and 116, respectively). Family income, parent and child depressive symptoms, and child antisocial behavior served as controls. Boys were assessed to age 34 years for suicide-attempt history (including death) and adult (ages 20-32 years) suicidal ideation, depressive symptoms, alcohol use, patterned tobacco and illicit drug use, and arrest. Relative to uninvolved boys, means or odds were higher for: suicide attempt among perpetrator-victims; all three groups for depressive symptoms and clinically significant symptoms; arrest for perpetrators and perpetrator-victims; number of arrests and violent arrest among perpetrator-victims; and patterned tobacco use among perpetrators and perpetrator-victims. With childhood vulnerabilities controlled, however, odds remained higher only for suicide attempt among perpetrator-victims, and criminal arrest and patterned tobacco use among perpetrators. Overall, childhood involvement in teasing predicted serious adverse outcomes in adulthood, in some cases beyond childhood risks. Programs that prevent peer victimization and identify already involved individuals for additional services may have positive impacts on the diverse public health problems of suicide, crime, depression, and tobacco use.

Patterns and Correlates of Offender Versatility and Specialization across a 23-Year Span for At-Risk Young Men

This study examined patterns and correlates of offender specialization versus versatility, or more random offenses, among 206 at-risk men. Both official records and self-report data of offending from late childhood to ages 31/32 were used. Aggregate-level and individual-level analyses indicated that the predominant offender pattern for this sample was versatility. Three correlates of offender versatility were examined (offense frequency, early onset, gang association). Aggregate-level findings consistently revealed offense frequency as a robust correlate of offender versatility, whereas individual-level findings differed among the three measures of offender versatility. The congruence of these findings with predictions from Patterson's (1982) coercion model is discussed.

Understanding Persistence and Desistance in Crime and Risk Behaviors in Adulthood: Implications for Theory and Prevention

Recent theoretical advances related to the development and course, including persistence and desistance, of antisocial behaviors and conduct problems, violent behaviors, and related problem behaviors are discussed. Integrative theoretical models, including the Dynamic Developmental Systems (DDS), are discussed. Aspects of the DDS model regarding the development of and change in antisocial behavior and violence across adolescence and early adulthood are illustrated with findings from the Oregon Youth Study, an ongoing, long-term examination of the causes and consequences of antisocial behavior for a community-based sample of men (and their romantic partners) who were raised in neighborhoods with high delinquency rates. Preventive implications of the model are discussed.

The Relationships of Parental Alcohol Versus Tobacco and Marijuana Use With Early Adolescent Onset of Alcohol Use

OBJECTIVE

This study examined whether the use of tobacco and marijuana by fathers or mothers predicted onset of alcohol use in their offspring over and above effects of parental alcohol use.

METHOD

The present study included 146 children of 93 parents (90 fathers and 85 mothers). The fathers were originally recruited as boys to the Oregon Youth Study, a study of community, familial, and individual risk factors for delinquency.

RESULTS

Only mothers' but not fathers' alcohol use was associated with children's age at onset. Children's age at onset was predicted by mothers' tobacco use and by the interaction of fathers' marijuana use and alcohol use. These effects were observed when controlling for parental education, child's gender, and also child's antisocial behavior-a general developmental risk factor for substance use onset in adolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

Mothers' substance use played a major role in childhood onset of alcohol use, yet the role of maternal substance use as a risk factor for their children has previously received less attention than the role of paternal substance use. Also, findings imply that it may be important to identify children of polysubstance-using parents for targeted prevention programs.

The Reliability of Retrospective Report for Timing First Sexual Intercourse for Adolescent Males

Several recent studies have employed retrospective report of the timing of events at adolescence, particularly of age atfirst sexual intercourse. The value of such studies rests on the assumption of reliability of the report of age on the occasion. The current study provides a test of the reliability of report of age atfirst intercourse over relatively short peniods of time and consistency of reports of ever having engaged in intercourse. Subjects were an at-risk sample of approximately 200 adolescent boys in the Oregon Youth Study. Every yearfrom Grade 8 through Grade 11, subjects were asked if they had ever had sexual intercourse and when was thefirst time. Consistency of responses as to whether they had ever had intercourse was high. Report of age at first intercourse, however, appeared very unreliable. Behavioralfactors were assessedfor their possible association with unreliable date reporting.

Affective Expression in Family Problem-Solving Discussions with Adolescent Boys

Families who fail to stay problem-focused and instead resort to the exchange of negatively charged emotions during family problem-solving discussions tend to have more distressed adolescents and also fail to solve their disputes. The current study examined the role of 10 affects observed during family problem solving for an at-risk sample of approximately 200 boys and their parent(s). Affects were assessed at Grade 8 and at Grade 10 as part of an ongoing longitudinal study with extensive multimethod, multi-agent assessments. Stability of affect over the 2-year period as well as the relation of affect to problem-solving outcome, parent-adolescent relationship, and adolescent self-esteem was examined. Analyses were conducted by family structure (intact, single-mother, stepfather). Results provided evidence for the value of studying the role of a range of affects in family interaction andfor the predictive validity of observed affects duringfamily process.

Middle Childhood Antecedents to Progressions in Male Adolescent Substance Use

Initiation of substance use before the age of 15 to 16 is a distinct risk factor for a variety of mental health problems and eventual drug abuse. Using multimethod, multi-agent measures of child, family, and peer antecedents at age 9 to 10, we studied the longitudinal effects in an at-risk sample of 206 boys. Event history analysis was used to examine the antecedents to patterned alcohol and tobacco use as well as experimentation with marijuana between ages 11 and 16. Univariate models revealed that at Grade 4, most constructs were prognostic of boys’ early substance use. Multivariate event history models clarified the risk and protective structure associated with tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use. The level of intercorrelation among the predictor variables, however, suggested that family, peer, and child characteristics were inextricably connected within an ecology of development. A structural equation prediction model suggested a higher order construct, “childhood risk structure. ”

Contextual risks linking parents' adolescent marijuana use to offspring onset

OBJECTIVE

We studied the extent to which parent marijuana use in adolescence is associated with marijuana use onset in offspring through contextual family and peer risks.

METHOD

Fathers assessed (n=93) since childhood, their 146 offspring (n=83 girls), and offspring's mothers (n=85) participated in a longitudinal study. Using discrete-time survival analysis, fathers' (prospectively measured) and mothers' (retrospective) adolescent marijuana use was used to predict offspring marijuana use onset through age 19 years. Parental monitoring, child exposure to marijuana use, peer deviance, peer marijuana use, and perceptions of parent disapproval of child use were measured before or concurrent with onset.

RESULTS

Parents' adolescent marijuana use was significantly associated with less monitoring, offspring alcohol use, the peer behaviors, exposure to adult marijuana use, and perceptions of less parent disapproval. Male gender and the two peer behaviors were positively associated with children's marijuana use onset, controlling for their alcohol use. Parents' adolescent marijuana use had a significant indirect effect on child onset through children's deviant peer affiliations and a composite contextual risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

Parents' histories of marijuana use may contribute indirectly to children's marijuana use onset through their influence on the social environments children encounter; specifically, those characterized by more liberal use norms, exposure to marijuana use and deviant and marijuana-using peers, and less adult supervision. Given that alcohol use onset was controlled, findings suggest that the contextual factors identified here confer unique risk for child marijuana use onset.

Contextual risks linking parents' adolescent marijuana use to offspring onset

OBJECTIVE

We studied the extent to which parent marijuana use in adolescence is associated with marijuana use onset in offspring through contextual family and peer risks.

METHOD

Fathers assessed (n=93) since childhood, their 146 offspring (n=83 girls), and offspring's mothers (n=85) participated in a longitudinal study. Using discrete-time survival analysis, fathers' (prospectively measured) and mothers' (retrospective) adolescent marijuana use was used to predict offspring marijuana use onset through age 19 years. Parental monitoring, child exposure to marijuana use, peer deviance, peer marijuana use, and perceptions of parent disapproval of child use were measured before or concurrent with onset.

RESULTS

Parents' adolescent marijuana use was significantly associated with less monitoring, offspring alcohol use, the peer behaviors, exposure to adult marijuana use, and perceptions of less parent disapproval. Male gender and the two peer behaviors were positively associated with children's marijuana use onset, controlling for their alcohol use. Parents' adolescent marijuana use had a significant indirect effect on child onset through children's deviant peer affiliations and a composite contextual risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

Parents' histories of marijuana use may contribute indirectly to children's marijuana use onset through their influence on the social environments children encounter; specifically, those characterized by more liberal use norms, exposure to marijuana use and deviant and marijuana-using peers, and less adult supervision. Given that alcohol use onset was controlled, findings suggest that the contextual factors identified here confer unique risk for child marijuana use onset.

Growth, Persistence, and Desistance of Alcohol Use for At-Risk Men in Their 30s

BACKGROUND

Little is known about heterogeneity in men's drinking behaviors and their related consequences across mid-adulthood, and moreover, whether individual or social factors may predict such differences. This study examined 3 indicators of alcohol use, namely alcohol volume, heavy episodic drinking (HED), and drinking-related problems for men in their 30s.

METHODS

Participants were 197 at-risk men from the Oregon Youth Study assessed 5 times across ages 29 to 38 years. Growth mixture modeling with count outcomes was used to examine unobserved heterogeneity in alcohol trajectories. Associations of latent classes of alcohol users with (i) classes for the other alcohol indicators, (ii) alcohol use by peers and romantic partners, (iii) alcohol classes previously extracted from ages 18 to 29 years, and (iv) past year alcohol use disorder (AUD) diagnostic status at ages 35 to 36 years were examined.

RESULTS

A 3-class solution afforded the best fit for each alcohol indicator. Alcohol problems were relatively established in the 30s, with an ascending use class found only for volume. Although relatively few men were in higher classes for all 3 indicators, 45% of the sample was in the highest class on at least 2 indicators of use. Peer drunkenness was a robust predictor of the alcohol classes. Concordance among classes of alcohol users was seen from the 20s to the 30s, with prior desistance likely to be maintained for alcohol volume and HED. AUD diagnoses at ages 35 to 36 years were more common in the higher classes obtained for alcohol volume and alcohol problems.

CONCLUSIONS

Many men in their 30s engaged in a high volume of alcohol use without frequent engagement in HED, likely relating to continuing alcohol problems. The convergence of men's alcohol use with that of their peers found at younger ages was maintained into early mid-adulthood.

Changes in the Associations of Heavy Drinking and Drug Use with Intimate Partner Violence in Early Adulthood

The hypothesis that the disinhibitory effects induced by alcohol consumption contribute to domestic violence has gained support from meta-analyses of mainly cross-sectional studies that examined the association between alcohol abuse and perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). However, findings from multilevel analyses of longitudinal data investigating the time-varying effects of heavy episodic drinking (HED) on physical IPV have been equivocal. This 12-year prospective study used multilevel analysis to examine the effects of HED and illicit drug use on perpetration of both physical and psychological IPV during early adulthood. Participants were 157 romantic couples who were assessed biennially 2 to 6 times for substance misuse and IPV. The analyses found no significant main effect of either HED or drug use on perpetration of IPV but there were significant interactions of both HED and drug use with age. Moreover, the developmental trends in substance use effects on IPV typically varied by gender and type of IPV.

Intimate partner violence and diurnal cortisol patterns in couples

This study examined whether physical intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization was associated with diurnal patterns of salivary cortisol in a community sample of 122 couples in their 30s from predominantly lower socioeconomic status backgrounds. Findings indicate that women with higher levels of victimization exhibited flatter patterns of diurnal cortisol characterized by both higher midday levels and more attenuated decreases in cortisol levels across the day, compared to women with lower levels of victimization. However, men's victimization was not associated with their diurnal cortisol levels. This study advances our understanding of the association between physical IPV victimization and dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis functioning in women, which is likely to have further implications for their subsequent mental and physical health.

Alcohol and marijuana use in early adulthood for at-risk men: time-varying associations with peer and partner substance use

BACKGROUND

Time-varying associations of 185 at-risk men's (from the Oregon Youth Study) substance use with that of their peers and partner over a 10-year period (ages 23 to 32 years) were examined. Moderation of effects by time with peers and partner and their age were tested.

METHOD

Growth models were used to predict changes in heavy episodic drinking (HED) alcohol use and marijuana use as a function of substance use by their female partners and male peers.

RESULTS

Time with peers and peer substance use significantly predicted HED (ORs=1.6, 2.3), alcohol use (ORs=1.6, 2.1), volume of alcohol use (IRRs=1.5, 1.3), and marijuana use (ORs=12.8, 1.7); peer marijuana use predicted volume of marijuana use (B=2.5). Partner substance use significantly predicated marijuana volume (B=2.7). Partner alcohol use predicted alcohol volume (IRR=1.1), but was moderated by time with partner and age (IRR=1.0). Time with partner and partner marijuana use predicted marijuana use (OR=0.5, 2.7), as did the interaction of the two (OR=3.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Outcome-specific substance use of peers and partners was significantly associated with indicators of alcohol and marijuana use in men's early adulthood, with robust effects of peer substance use through age 30 years and with time spent with peers influencing alcohol use. Time with partner was protective against marijuana use unless the partner used marijuana. Peers and partners should be considered in intervention efforts to effectively reduce men's substance use in early adulthood.

Parental monitoring of children's media consumption: the long-term influences on body mass index in children

IMPORTANCE

Although children's media consumption has been one of the most robust risk factors for childhood obesity, effects of specific parenting influences, such as parental media monitoring, have not been effectively investigated.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the potential influences of maternal and paternal monitoring of child media exposure and children's general activities on body mass index (BMI) in middle childhood.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A longitudinal study, taken from a subsample of the Three Generational Study, a predominantly white, Pacific Northwest community sample (overall participation rate, 89.6%), included assessments performed from June 1998 to September 2012. Analyses included 112 mothers, 103 fathers, and their 213 children (55.4% girls) at age 5, 7, and/or 9 years. Participation rates ranged from 66.7% to 72.0% of all eligible Three Generational Study children across the 3 assessments.

EXPOSURES

Parents reported on their general monitoring of their children (whereabouts and activities), specific monitoring of child media exposure, children's participation in sports and recreational activities, children's media time (hours per week), annual income, and educational level. Parental BMI was recorded.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Predictions to level and change in child BMI z scores were tested.

RESULTS

Linear mixed-effects modeling indicated that more maternal, but not paternal, monitoring of child media exposure predicted lower child BMI z scores at age 7 years (95% CI, -0.39 to -0.07) and less steeply increasing child BMI z scores from 5 to 9 years (95% CI, -0.11 to -0.01). These effects held when more general parental monitoring, and parent BMI, annual income, and educational level were controlled for. The significant negative effect of maternal media monitoring on children's BMI z scores at age 7 years was marginally accounted for by the effect of child media time. The maternal media monitoring effect on children's BMI z score slopes remained significant after adjustment for children's media time and sports and recreational activity.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that parental behaviors related to children's media consumption may have long-term effects on children's BMI in middle childhood. They underscore the importance of targeting parental media monitoring in efforts to prevent childhood obesity.

Influences on Boys' Marijuana Use in High School: A Two-Part Random Intercept Growth Model

This study examined differences in predictors of marijuana use versus quantity of marijuana use across the high school years, using annual assessments from the Oregon Youth Study (OYS) and a two-part model for semicontinuous data. The OYS is a community sample of at-risk boys followed from age 10 years. In order to capture dynamic prediction effects, change scores of predictors, as well as baseline scores, were included. Baseline predictors predominantly showed associations with the intercepts but not with the slopes of growth models. Change scores for parental monitoring, peer substance use, and antisocial behavior and deviant associations were associated with both parts of the model. Findings highlight the importance of looking at marijuana use compared to quantity of marijuana use.

Associations of Women's Substance Dependency Symptoms with Intimate Partner Violence

Associations of substance dependencies and experiences with intimate partner violence (IPV) were examined in a community sample of 146 female participants in a longitudinal study of couples. The women with a history of dependence on hard drugs (but not alcohol, cannabis, or sedatives) were more likely to also have perpetrated IPV. However, only women dependent on cocaine were more likely to have been a victimized by their male partners. Psychological IPV was found to be more stable across time than physical IPV, but associations of substance abuse with IPV did not vary by IPV type. Findings were compared with results from a prior study of men's substance abuse and IPV that also found associations between dependence on hard drugs (but not alcohol dependence alone) and perpetration of IPV.

Two longterm studies of seasonal variation in depressive symptoms among community participants

BACKGROUND

There is evidence that seasonal variation in depressive symptoms is common in the population. However, research is limited by a reliance on longterm retrospective methods.

METHODS

Seasonal patterns were tested in two samples of community participants recruited in separate prospective studies in the Midwestern (n=556 males/females) and Pacific Northwestern (n=206 males) United States. Participants completed self-report measures of depressive symptoms 10-19 times from ages 14 to 36 years (n=8316 person observations). These data were compared with local meteorological conditions (e.g., solar radiation) recorded across the 2 weeks prior to each self-report.

RESULTS

In within-subjects analyses, participants' depressive symptoms and the probability of clinically significant symptoms varied with the time of year, as hypothesized (highest in the weeks of early Winter; lowest in early Fall). However, effect sizes were modest and were not explained by recent sunlight or other meteorological conditions.

LIMITATIONS

Samples were not nationally representative. Participants did not complete retrospective reports of seasonal depression or measures of current vegetative symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither time of the year nor recent seasonally linked meteorological conditions were powerful influences on depressive symptoms experienced by community populations in relevant geographic regions. Prior studies may have overestimated the prevalence and significance of seasonal variation in depressive symptoms for the general population.

Growth of men's alcohol use in early adulthood: intimate partners' influence

The present study examined the effects of intimate partners' alcohol use on the developmental trajectories of men's alcohol use across their early to late 20s. Longitudinal data from a community sample of 110 at-risk young men and their intimate partners were analyzed using latent growth modeling. Results indicated that, in general, men showed a significant linear decrease in alcohol use across their 20s, as expected. However, partners' alcohol use had significant and positive effects on men's concurrent alcohol use across their 20s, regardless of relationship status, even after taking into account autoregressive effects of men's own alcohol use and their antisocial behavior. Furthermore, a new partner's alcohol use had a significantly greater influence on the man's alcohol use in his late 20s compared to a partner's alcohol use from intact relationships. Findings from the present study highlight the importance of considering intimate partners' alcohol use as part of the proximal psychosocial environment influencing men's alcohol use during early adulthood. Implications for prevention and intervention efforts are discussed.

New approaches for examining associations with latent categorical variables: applications to substance abuse and aggression

Assessments of substance use behaviors often include categorical variables that are frequently related to other measures using logistic regression or chi-square analysis. When the categorical variable is latent (e.g., extracted from a latent class analysis [LCA]), classification of observations is often used to create an observed nominal variable from the latent one for use in a subsequent analysis. However, recent simulation studies have found that this classical 3-step analysis championed by the pioneers of LCA produces underestimates of the associations of latent classes with other variables. Two preferable but underused alternatives for examining such linkages-each of which is most appropriate under certain conditions-are (a) 3-step analysis, which corrects the underestimation bias of the classical approach, and (b) 1-step analysis. The purpose of this article is to dissuade researchers from conducting classical 3-step analysis and to promote the use of the 2 newer approaches that are described and compared. In addition, the applications of these newer models-for use when the independent, the dependent, or both categorical variables are latent-are illustrated through substantive analyses relating classes of substance abusers to classes of intimate partner aggressors.

The interplay between interpersonal stress and psychological intimate partner violence over time for young at-risk couples

The substantial number of young people in romantic relationships that involve intimate partner violence, a situation deleterious to physical and mental health, has resulted in increased attention to understanding the links between risk factors and course of violence. The current study examined couples' interpersonal stress related to not liking partners' friends and not getting along with parents as contextual factors associated with couples' psychological partner violence and determined whether and when couples' friend and parent stress increased the likelihood of couples' psychological partner violence. A linear latent growth curve modeling approach was used with multiwave measures of psychological partner violence, friend stress, parent stress, and relationship satisfaction obtained from 196 men at risk for delinquency and their women partners over a 12-year period. At the initial assessment, on average, the men were age 21.5 years and the women were age 21 years. Findings indicated that couples experiencing high levels of friend and parent stress were more likely to engage in high levels of psychological partner violence and that increases in couples' friend stress predicted increases in couples' partner violence over time, even when accounting for the couples' relationship satisfaction, marital status, children in the home, and financial strain. Interactive effects were at play when the couples were in their early 20s, with couples being most at risk for increases in psychological partner violence if they experienced both high friend stress and low relationship satisfaction. Couples' friend stress had the greatest effect on psychological partner violence when the couples were in their early to mid 20s when levels of friend stress were high. As the couples reached their 30s, low relationship satisfaction became the leading predictor of couples' psychological partner violence.

Stability of intimate partner violence by men across 12 years in young adulthood: effects of relationship transitions

The present study examined the stability of young men's intimate partner violence (IPV) over a 12-year period as a function of relationship continuity or discontinuity. Multiwave measures of IPV (physical and psychological aggression) were obtained from 184 men at risk for delinquency and their women partners. The effects of relationship continuity versus transitions on change in IPV were examined using multilevel analyses. In general, men's IPV decreased over time. Men's physical aggression in their early 20s predicted levels of physical aggression about 7 years later, and men's psychological aggression in their early 20s predicted levels of psychological aggression about 10-12 years later. As hypothesized, higher stability in IPV was found for men who stayed with the same partners, whereas men experiencing relationship transitions showed greater change. The IPV of new partners was linked to the changes in men's IPV that occurred with repartnering. There was less change in men's IPV over time as men changed partners less frequently.

Growth in externalizing and internalizing problems in childhood: a prospective study of psychopathology across three generations

Three generations of participants were assessed over approximately 27 years, and intergenerational prediction models of growth in the third generation's (G3) externalizing and internalizing problems across ages 3-9 years were examined. The sample included 103 fathers and mothers (G2), at least 1 parent (G1) for all of the G2 fathers (99 mothers, 72 fathers), and 185 G3 offspring (83 boys, 102 girls) of G2, with prospective data available on the G2 fathers beginning at age 9 years. Behavior of the G2 mother, along with father contact and mother age at birth were included in the models. Intergenerational associations in psychopathology were modest, and much of the transmission occurred via contextual risk within the family of procreation.

Heterogeneity in growth and desistance of alcohol use for men in their 20s: prediction from early risk factors and association with treatment

BACKGROUND

The course of men's alcohol use from ages 18 to 19 through 28 to 29 years was examined using growth mixture modeling (GMM) to determine alcohol trajectories for 3 conceptualizations of alcohol use: volume of use, heavy episodic drinking (HED), and drinking-related problems. Trajectory classes were validated against the young men's alcohol treatment history, and childhood/adolescent predictors of trajectory membership were examined.

METHODS

Participants were 205 men from the Oregon Youth Study, an ongoing longitudinal study of predominantly White men recruited from higher crime neighborhoods who were assessed annually during their 20s. The multivariate association between 3 prospectively assessed risk factors-parental alcohol use, child antisocial behavior, and age at first drunken experience-and the latent classes extracted from the GMM were examined for each alcohol indicator.

RESULTS

A 3-class-solution model best fit the data for each alcohol indicator. The classes for both HED and problematic drinking for the men were significantly associated with history of treatment for alcohol use. Overall, the findings indicated a relatively large class with persistently high volume of alcohol use across the 20s and a greater prevalence of desistance for HED and alcohol problems. Age at first intoxication was the best predictor of latent class membership, and men in the initially high-then-desisting alcohol classes had a high level of early risk. Concordance of trajectory class membership across alcohol indicators was moderate overall but particularly strong for higher problem groups, as almost all men in the increasing HED trajectory were also in the highest volume and alcohol problems trajectory classes. Levels of treatment were high for the higher and desisting HED and alcohol problems classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Many of the men showed chronic alcohol use across the decade of the 20s and had problems resulting from their high usage. Whereas most of the men showed low and/or desisting HED across this period, desistance was less common for volume of use and for alcohol problems.

A Systematic Review of Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence

A systematic review of risk factors for intimate partner violence was conducted. Inclusion criteria included publication in a peer-reviewed journal, a representative community sample or a clinical sample with a control-group comparison, a response rate of at least 50%, use of a physical or sexual violence outcome measure, and control of confounding factors in the analyses. A total of 228 articles were included (170 articles with adult and 58 with adolescent samples). Organized by levels of a dynamic developmental systems perspective, risk factors included: (a) contextual characteristics of partners (demographic, neighborhood, community and school factors), (b) developmental characteristics and behaviors of the partners (e.g., family, peer, psychological/behavioral, and cognitive factors), and (c) relationship influences and interactional patterns. Comparisons to a prior review highlight developments in the field in the past 10 years. Recommendations for intervention and policy along with future directions for intimate partner violence (IPV) risk factor research are presented.

General versus specific predictors of male arrest trajectories: a test of the Moffitt and Patterson theories

Developmental taxonomies of crime disagree on whether distinctive offender trajectories are related to common or unique risks. This study examined childhood risks of differing arrest trajectories across childhood through early adulthood (from ages 10-11 to 26-27 years) that were identified in prior work for 203 at-risk, predominantly Caucasian young men. Multivariate analyses revealed that when both distal (childhood risk factors) and proximal risk factors (deviant peer association as a time-varying covariate) were included in the model, relatively few childhood risk factors (assessed at age 9-10 years) discriminated the chronic offender groups from rare offenders (i.e., child antisocial behavior, child attention problems, parents' antisocial behavior). Rather, deviant peer association was significantly related to levels of offending within each trajectory group (i.e., chronic and rare offender groups). No predictor differentially predicted membership in the two chronic groups, supporting the linear gradation argument. Theoretical and prevention implications are discussed.

Early Adult Outcomes of Male Arrest Trajectories: Propensity versus Causation Effects

This study examined early adult outcomes of differing arrest trajectories across childhood through early adulthood that were identified in prior work for 197 at-risk young men. Early adult outcomes were assessed at ages 27-28 to 29-30 years. Predictive effects of arrest trajectory membership on outcomes were examined after controlling for various factors, including prior levels and early antisocial propensity. As early adults, both chronic offender groups showed poorer adjustment in terms of deviant peer affiliation, education, and work domains than did the Rare Offenders; High-Level Chronic Offenders stood out from all other groups in terms of mental health problems and physical aggression toward a partner. These effects represent plausible causal effects of developmental pathways of offending on the outcomes. Evidence for propensity effects on the outcomes was more limited. Theoretical and prevention implications are discussed.

The timing of smoking onset, prolonged abstinence and relapse in men: a prospective study from ages 18 to 32 years

AIM

To describe the rate and timing of smoking onset, prolonged abstinence (≥1 year) and relapses from ages 18 to 32 years in initially smoking and non-smoking men.

DESIGN

A 23-year longitudinal study.

SETTING

Untreated community sample.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 154 American boys were recruited at age 10 years to a larger study (n=206) of delinquency risk; 71 participants who smoked cigarettes and did not use smokeless tobacco and 83 participants who initially did not use tobacco were followed from age 18 to 32 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Frequency of tobacco use and weekly cigarettes smoked in the past year were assessed annually. Onset (>6 cigarettes/week), abstinence (0 tobacco uses in the past year) and relapse (>0 cigarettes/week) were tracked annually.

FINDINGS

Of smokers, 36% achieved 1 or more years of abstinence by age 32 years; 52% who reached abstinence relapsed at least once. One-half of men who showed onset after age 18 years were smoking at the end of the study, compared to nearly three-quarters of men who were smokers at age 18 years. Risk for relapse following prolonged abstinence was strongest initially and diminished thereafter. Transition probabilities were stronger for the second period of abstinence than for the first. Models were limited by sample size and statistical power.

CONCLUSIONS

Relapses continue to erode men's quit success even after long periods of abstinence from smoking. Long-term abstinence, despite intervening relapse, bodes well for eventual abstinence. Adolescent onset appears relevant to the likelihood of adult abstinence and relapse patterns.