Effects of high-dose versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine among patients with diabetes: A post-hoc analysis of the DANFLU-1 trial

AIM

High-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) has been shown to be more effective than standard-dose (QIV-SD) in reducing influenza infection, but whether diabetes status affects relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) is unknown. We aimed to assess rVE on change in glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c (∆HbA1c)], incident diabetes, total all-cause hospitalizations (first + recurrent), and a composite of all-cause mortality and hospitalization for pneumonia or influenza.

METHODS

DANFLU-1 was a pragmatic, open-label trial randomizing adults (65-79 years) 1:1 to QIV-HD or QIV-SD during the 2021/22 influenza season. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate rVE against incident diabetes and the composite endpoint, negative binomial regression to estimate rVE against all-cause hospitalizations, and ANCOVA when assessing rVE against ∆HbA1c.

RESULTS

Of the 12 477 participants, 1162 (9.3%) had diabetes at baseline. QIV-HD, compared with QIV-SD, was associated with a reduction in the rate of all-cause hospitalizations irrespective of diabetes [overall: 647 vs. 742 events, incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.87, 95% CI (0.76-0.99); diabetes: 93 vs. 118 events, IRR: 0.80, 95% CI (0.55-1.15); without diabetes: 554 vs. 624 events, IRR: 0.88, 95% CI (0.76-1.01), pinteraction = 0.62]. Among those with diabetes, QIV-HD was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome [2 vs. 11 events, HR: 0.18, 95% CI (0.04-0.83)] but had no effect on ∆HbA1c; QIV-HD adjusted mean difference: ∆ + 0.2 mmol/mol, 95% CI (-0.9 to 1.2). QIV-HD did not affect the risk of incident diabetes [HR 1.18, 95% CI (0.94-1.47)].

CONCLUSIONS

In this post-hoc analysis, QIV-HD versus QIV-SD was associated with an increased rVE against the composite of all-cause death and hospitalization for pneumonia/influenza, and the all-cause hospitalization rate irrespective of diabetes status.

Effects of Empagliflozin on Fluid Overload, Weight, and Blood Pressure in CKD

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

SGLT2 inhibitors reduce risk of kidney progression, AKI, and cardiovascular disease, but the mechanisms of benefit are incompletely understood. Bioimpedance spectroscopy can estimate body water and fat mass. One quarter of the EMPA-KIDNEY bioimpedance substudy CKD population had clinically significant levels of bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" at recruitment. Empagliflozin induced a prompt and sustained reduction in "Fluid Overload," irrespective of sex, diabetes, and baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or eGFR. No significant effect on bioimpedance-derived fat mass was observed. The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on body water may be one of the contributing mechanisms by which they mediate effects on cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND

CKD is associated with fluid excess that can be estimated by bioimpedance spectroscopy. We aimed to assess effects of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition on bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" and adiposity in a CKD population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY was a double-blind placebo-controlled trial of empagliflozin 10 mg once daily in patients with CKD at risk of progression. In a substudy, bioimpedance measurements were added to the main trial procedures at randomization and at 2- and 18-month follow-up visits. The substudy's primary outcome was the study-average difference in absolute "Fluid Overload" (an estimate of excess extracellular water) analyzed using a mixed model repeated measures approach.

RESULTS

The 660 substudy participants were broadly representative of the 6609-participant trial population. Substudy mean baseline absolute "Fluid Overload" was 0.4±1.7 L. Compared with placebo, the overall mean absolute "Fluid Overload" difference among those allocated empagliflozin was -0.24 L (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.38 to -0.11), with similar sized differences at 2 and 18 months, and in prespecified subgroups. Total body water differences comprised between-group differences in extracellular water of -0.49 L (95% CI, -0.69 to -0.30, including the -0.24 L "Fluid Overload" difference) and a -0.30 L (95% CI, -0.57 to -0.03) difference in intracellular water. There was no significant effect of empagliflozin on bioimpedance-derived adipose tissue mass (-0.28 kg [95% CI, -1.41 to 0.85]). The between-group difference in weight was -0.7 kg (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

In a broad range of patients with CKD, empagliflozin resulted in a sustained reduction in a bioimpedance-derived estimate of fluid overload, with no statistically significant effect on fat mass.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03594110 ; EuDRACT: 2017-002971-24 ( https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/ ).

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome.

Effectiveness of high-dose versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine against recurrent hospitalizations and mortality in relation to influenza circulation: A post-hoc analysis of the DANFLU-1 randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relative effectiveness of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-SD) against recurrent hospitalizations and its potential variation in relation to influenza circulation.

METHODS

We did a post-hoc analysis of a pragmatic, open-label, randomized trial of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD performed during the 2021-2022 influenza season among adults aged 65-79 years. Participants were enrolled in October 2021-November, 2021 and followed for outcomes from 14 days postvaccination until 31 May, 2022. We investigated the following outcomes: Hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza, respiratory hospitalizations, cardio-respiratory hospitalizations, cardiovascular hospitalizations, all-cause hospitalizations, and all-cause death. Outcomes were analysed as recurrent events. Cumulative numbers of events were assessed weekly. Cumulative relative effectiveness estimates were calculated and descriptively compared with influenza circulation. The trial is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT05048589.

RESULTS

Among 12,477 randomly assigned participants, receiving QIV-HD was associated with lower incidence rates of hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza (10 vs. 33 events, incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.30 [95% CI, 0.14-0.64]; p 0.002) and all-cause hospitalizations (647 vs. 742 events, IRR 0.87 [95% CI, 0.76-0.99]; p 0.032) compared with QIV-SD. Trends favouring QIV-HD were consistently observed over time including in the period before active influenza transmission; i.e. while the first week with a ≥10% influenza test positivity rate was calendar week 10, 2022, the first statistically significant reduction in hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza was already observed by calendar week 3, 2022 (5 vs. 15 events, IRR 0.33 [95% CI, 0.11-0.94]; p 0.037).

DISCUSSION

In a post-hoc analysis, QIV-HD was associated with lower incidence rates of hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza and all-cause hospitalizations compared with QIV-SD, with trends evident independent of influenza circulation levels. Our exploratory results correspond to a number needed to treat of 65 (95% CI 35-840) persons vaccinated with QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD to prevent one additional all-cause hospitalization per season. Further research is needed to confirm these hypothesis-generating findings.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Reliability of major bleeding events in UK routine data versus clinical trial adjudicated follow-up data

OBJECTIVE

To assess how reliable UK routine data are for ascertaining major bleeding events compared with adjudicated follow-up.

METHODS

The ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) primary prevention trial randomised 15 480 UK people with diabetes to aspirin versus matching placebo. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including intracranial haemorrhage, sight-threatening eye bleeding, serious gastrointestinal bleeding and other major bleeding (epistaxis, haemoptysis, haematuria, vaginal and other bleeding)) ascertained by direct-participant mail-based follow-up, with >90% of outcomes undergoing adjudication. Nearly all participants were linked to routinely collected hospitalisation and death data (ie, routine data). An algorithm categorised bleeding events from routine data as major/minor. Kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between data sources, and randomised comparisons were re-run using routine data.

RESULTS

When adjudicated follow-up and routine data were compared, there was agreement for 318 major bleeding events, with routine data identifying 281 additional-potential events, and not identifying 241 participant-reported events (kappa 0.53, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.57). Repeating ASCEND's randomised comparisons using routine data only found estimated relative and absolute effects of allocation to aspirin versus placebo on major bleeding similar to adjudicated follow-up (adjudicated follow-up: aspirin 314 (4.1%) vs placebo 245 (3.2%); rate ratio (RR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; absolute excess +6.3/5000 person-years (mean SE±2.1); vs routine data: 327 (4.2%) vs 272 (3.5%); RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.41; absolute excess +5.0/5000 (±2.2)).

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of the ASCEND randomised trial found that major bleeding events ascertained via UK routine data sources provided relative and absolute treatment effects similar to adjudicated follow-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN60635500; NCT00135226.

Delivering trials in the NHS: more than worth it

Randomised trials are the best method to determine the efficacy and safety of health technologies. A recent report by Lord O'Shaughnessy highlighted many of the current challenges to delivering trials in the UK and proposed potential solutions. Among these, making trials the business of all NHS institutions and a valued part of all doctors' work, while leveraging the potential of the data that the NHS collects routinely, offers an opportunity to improve NHS efficiency, doctors' job satisfaction and population health simultaneously.

Impact of outcome adjudication in kidney disease trials: observations from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP)

Introduction

We aimed to assess opportunities for trial streamlining and the scientific impact of adjudication on kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in CKD.

Methods

We analysed the effects of adjudication of ~2100 maintenance kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and ~1300 major atherosclerotic events (MAEs) recorded in SHARP. We first compared outcome classification before versus after adjudication, and then re-ran randomised comparisons using pre-adjudicated follow-up data.

Results

For maintenance KRT, adjudication had little impact with only 1% of events being refuted (28/2115). Consequently, randomised comparisons using pre-adjudication reports found almost identical results (pre-adjudication: simvastatin/ezetimibe 1038 vs placebo 1077; risk ratio [RR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.88-1.04; post-adjudicated: 1057 vs 1084; RR=0.97, 95%CI 0.89-1.05). For MAEs, about one-quarter of patient reports were refuted (324/1275 [25%]), and reviewing 3538 other potential vascular events and death reports identified only 194 additional MAEs. Nevertheless, randomised analyses using SHARP's pre-adjudicated data alone found similar results to analyses based on adjudicated outcomes (pre-adjudication: 573 vs 702; RR=0.80, 95%CI 0.72-0.89; adjudicated: 526 vs 619; RR=0.83, 95%CI 0.74- 0.94), and also suggested refuted MAEs were likely to represent atherosclerotic disease (RR for refuted MAEs=0.80, 95%CI 0.65-1.00).

Conclusions

These analyses provide three key insights. First, they provide a rationale for nephrology trials not to adjudicate maintenance KRT. Secondly, when an event that mimics an atherosclerotic outcome is not expected to be influenced by the treatment under study (e.g. heart failure), the aim of adjudicating atherosclerotic outcomes should be to remove such events. Lastly, restrictive definitions for the remaining suspected atherosclerotic outcomes may reduce statistical power.

A Pragmatic Randomized Feasibility Trial of Influenza Vaccines

Randomized Feasibility Trial of Influenza VaccinesThis pragmatic, open-label, active-controlled, randomized feasibility trial of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD was conducted in Danish citizens aged 65 to 79 years during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Randomization was integrated into routine vaccination practice. Only nationwide administrative health registries were used for data collection.

Empagliflozin in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

The effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease who are at risk for disease progression are not well understood. The EMPA-KIDNEY trial was designed to assess the effects of treatment with empagliflozin in a broad range of such patients.

METHODS

We enrolled patients with chronic kidney disease who had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of at least 20 but less than 45 ml per minute per 1.73 m² of body-surface area, or who had an eGFR of at least 45 but less than 90 ml per minute per 1.73 m² with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (with albumin measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams) of at least 200. Patients were randomly assigned to receive empagliflozin (10 mg once daily) or matching placebo. The primary outcome was a composite of progression of kidney disease (defined as end-stage kidney disease, a sustained decrease in eGFR to <10 ml per minute per 1.73 m², a sustained decrease in eGFR of ≥40% from baseline, or death from renal causes) or death from cardiovascular causes.

RESULTS

A total of 6609 patients underwent randomization. During a median of 2.0 years of follow-up, progression of kidney disease or death from cardiovascular causes occurred in 432 of 3304 patients (13.1%) in the empagliflozin group and in 558 of 3305 patients (16.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.82; P<0.001). Results were consistent among patients with or without diabetes and across subgroups defined according to eGFR ranges. The rate of hospitalization from any cause was lower in the empagliflozin group than in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.95; P = 0.003), but there were no significant between-group differences with respect to the composite outcome of hospitalization for heart failure or death from cardiovascular causes (which occurred in 4.0% in the empagliflozin group and 4.6% in the placebo group) or death from any cause (in 4.5% and 5.1%, respectively). The rates of serious adverse events were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a wide range of patients with chronic kidney disease who were at risk for disease progression, empagliflozin therapy led to a lower risk of progression of kidney disease or death from cardiovascular causes than placebo. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and others; EMPA-KIDNEY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03594110; EudraCT number, 2017-002971-24.).

Determining the Relationship Between Blood Pressure, Kidney Function, and Chronic Kidney Disease: Insights From Genetic Epidemiology

BACKGROUND

It is well established that decreased kidney function can increase blood pressure (BP), but it is unproven whether moderately elevated BP causes chronic kidney disease (CKD) or glomerular hyperfiltration.

METHODS

311 119 White British UK Biobank participants were included in logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds of CKD (defined as long-term kidney replacement therapy, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]< 60mL/min/1.73m², or urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥3 mg/mmol) associated with higher genetically predicted BP using genetic risk scores comprising 219 systolic and 223 diastolic BP loci. Analyses estimating associations with clinical categories of eGFR and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio were also conducted, with an eGFR ≥120 mL (min·1.73m²) considered evidence of glomerular hyperfiltration.

RESULTS

21 623 participants had CKD: 7781 with reduced eGFR and 15 500 with albuminuria. 1828 participants had an eGFR ≥120 mL/min/1.73m². Each genetically predicted 10 mmHg higher systolic BP and 5 mmHg higher diastolic BP were associated with a 37% (95% CI, 1.29-1.45) and 19% (1.14-1.25) higher odds of CKD, respectively. Associations were evident for both the reduced eGFR and albuminuria components of the CKD outcome. The odds of hyperfiltration (versus an eGFR ≥60 and <90 mL/min/1.73m² were 49% higher (95% CI, 1.21-1.84) for each genetically predicted 10 mmHg higher systolic BP. Associations with CKD and hyperfiltration were similar irrespective of preexisting diabetes, vascular disease, or different levels of adiposity.

CONCLUSIONS

In this general population, genetic epidemiological evidence supports a causal role of life-long differences in BP for decreased kidney function, glomerular hyperfiltration, and albuminuria. Physiological autoregulation may not afford complete renal protection against the moderate BP elevations.

Impact of diabetes on the effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on kidney outcomes: collaborative meta-analysis of large placebo-controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Large trials have shown that sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure or chronic kidney disease, or with type 2 diabetes and high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. None of the trials recruiting patients with and without diabetes were designed to assess outcomes separately in patients without diabetes.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitor trials. We searched the MEDLINE and Embase databases for trials published from database inception to Sept 5, 2022. SGLT2 inhibitor trials that were double-blind, placebo-controlled, performed in adults (age ≥18 years), large (≥500 participants per group), and at least 6 months in duration were included. Summary-level data used for analysis were extracted from published reports or provided by trial investigators, and inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses were conducted to estimate treatment effects. The main efficacy outcomes were kidney disease progression (standardised to a definition of a sustained ≥50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] from randomisation, a sustained low eGFR, end-stage kidney disease, or death from kidney failure), acute kidney injury, and a composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure. Other outcomes were death from cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular disease considered separately, and the main safety outcomes were ketoacidosis and lower limb amputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022351618.

FINDINGS

We identified 13 trials involving 90 413 participants. After exclusion of four participants with uncertain diabetes status, we analysed 90 409 participants (74 804 [82·7%] participants with diabetes [>99% with type 2 diabetes] and 15 605 [17·3%] without diabetes; trial-level mean baseline eGFR range 37-85 mL/min per 1·73 m2). Compared with placebo, allocation to an SGLT2 inhibitor reduced the risk of kidney disease progression by 37% (relative risk [RR] 0·63, 95% CI 0·58-0·69) with similar RRs in patients with and without diabetes. In the four chronic kidney disease trials, RRs were similar irrespective of primary kidney diagnosis. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of acute kidney injury by 23% (0·77, 0·70-0·84) and the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure by 23% (0·77, 0·74-0·81), again with similar effects in those with and without diabetes. SGLT2 inhibitors also reduced the risk of cardiovascular death (0·86, 0·81-0·92) but did not significantly reduce the risk of non-cardiovascular death (0·94, 0·88-1·02). For these mortality outcomes, RRs were similar in patients with and without diabetes. For all outcomes, results were broadly similar irrespective of trial mean baseline eGFR. Based on estimates of absolute effects, the absolute benefits of SGLT2 inhibition outweighed any serious hazards of ketoacidosis or amputation.

INTERPRETATION

In addition to the established cardiovascular benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors, the randomised data support their use for modifying risk of kidney disease progression and acute kidney injury, not only in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, but also in patients with chronic kidney disease or heart failure irrespective of diabetes status, primary kidney disease, or kidney function.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council and Kidney Research UK.

Comparison of the Accuracy and Completeness of Records of Serious Vascular Events in Routinely Collected Data vs Clinical Trial-Adjudicated Direct Follow-up Data in the UK: Secondary Analysis of the ASCEND Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Routinely collected data could substantially decrease the cost of conducting trials.

Objective

To assess the accuracy and completeness of UK routine data for ascertaining serious vascular events (SVEs) compared with adjudicated follow-up data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. From June 24, 2005, to July 28, 2011, the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial used mail-based methods to randomize people with diabetes without evidence of atherosclerotic vascular disease using a 2 × 2 factorial design to aspirin and/or ω-fatty acids vs matching placebo in the UK. Direct participant mail-based follow-up was the main source of outcome data, with more than 90% of the primary outcome events undergoing adjudication. Follow-up was completed on July 31, 2017. In parallel, more than 99% of participants were linked to routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data (ie, routine data), enabling post hoc randomized comparisons of different sources of outcome data (conducted from September 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021).

Interventions

Random allocation to 100 mg of aspirin once daily vs matching placebo and separately to 1 g of ω-3 fatty acids once daily vs placebo.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome consisted of SVEs (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or vascular death, excluding hemorrhagic stroke).

Results

A total of 15 480 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 63 [9] years; 9684 [62.6%] men) and followed up for a mean (SD) of 7.4 (1.8) years. For SVEs, agreement between adjudicated direct follow-up and routine data sources was strong (1401 vs 1127 events; κ = 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; sensitivity, 72.0% [95% CI, 69.7%-74.4%]; specificity, 99.2% [95% CI, 99.0%-99.3%]), and sensitivity improved for SVEs excluding transient ischemic attack (1129 vs 1026 events; sensitivity, 80.6% [95% CI, 78.3%-82.9%]). Rate ratios for the aspirin-randomized comparison for adjudicated direct follow-up vs follow-up solely through routine data alone were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.97) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for the primary outcome and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.03) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.02) for SVEs excluding TIA. Results were similar for the ω-3 fatty acid comparison, and adjudication did not seem to markedly change rate ratios.

Conclusions and Relevance

Post hoc analyses of the ASCEND trial suggest that routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data in the UK could be used as the sole method of follow-up for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke resulting in hospitalization, vascular death, and arterial revascularization in primary prevention cardiovascular trials, without the need for verification by clinical adjudication.

Association Between Administration of IL-6 Antagonists and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Meta-analysis

Importance

Clinical trials assessing the efficacy of IL-6 antagonists in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have variously reported benefit, no effect, and harm.

Objective

To estimate the association between administration of IL-6 antagonists compared with usual care or placebo and 28-day all-cause mortality and other outcomes.

Data Sources

Trials were identified through systematic searches of electronic databases between October 2020 and January 2021. Searches were not restricted by trial status or language. Additional trials were identified through contact with experts.

Study Selection

Eligible trials randomly assigned patients hospitalized for COVID-19 to a group in whom IL-6 antagonists were administered and to a group in whom neither IL-6 antagonists nor any other immunomodulators except corticosteroids were administered. Among 72 potentially eligible trials, 27 (37.5%) met study selection criteria.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

In this prospective meta-analysis, risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Inconsistency among trial results was assessed using the I2 statistic. The primary analysis was an inverse variance-weighted fixed-effects meta-analysis of odds ratios (ORs) for 28-day all-cause mortality.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 28 days after randomization. There were 9 secondary outcomes including progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death and risk of secondary infection by 28 days.

Results

A total of 10 930 patients (median age, 61 years [range of medians, 52-68 years]; 3560 [33%] were women) participating in 27 trials were included. By 28 days, there were 1407 deaths among 6449 patients randomized to IL-6 antagonists and 1158 deaths among 4481 patients randomized to usual care or placebo (summary OR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.79-0.95]; P = .003 based on a fixed-effects meta-analysis). This corresponds to an absolute mortality risk of 22% for IL-6 antagonists compared with an assumed mortality risk of 25% for usual care or placebo. The corresponding summary ORs were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.74-0.92; P < .001) for tocilizumab and 1.08 (95% CI, 0.86-1.36; P = .52) for sarilumab. The summary ORs for the association with mortality compared with usual care or placebo in those receiving corticosteroids were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87) for tocilizumab and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.61-1.38) for sarilumab. The ORs for the association with progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death, compared with usual care or placebo, were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.85) for all IL-6 antagonists, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.66-0.82) for tocilizumab, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.74-1.34) for sarilumab. Secondary infections by 28 days occurred in 21.9% of patients treated with IL-6 antagonists vs 17.6% of patients treated with usual care or placebo (OR accounting for trial sample sizes, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.85-1.16).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prospective meta-analysis of clinical trials of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, administration of IL-6 antagonists, compared with usual care or placebo, was associated with lower 28-day all-cause mortality.

Trial Registration

PROSPERO Identifier: CRD42021230155.

Independent risk factors for simvastatin-related myopathy and relevance to different types of muscle symptom

Aims

Statins are widely used to prevent cardiovascular events, but little is known about the impact of different risk factors for statin-related myopathy or their relevance to reports of other types of muscle symptom.

Methods and results

An observational analysis was undertaken of 171 clinically adjudicated cases of myopathy (defined as unexplained muscle pain or weakness with creatine kinase >10× upper limit of normal) and, separately, of 15 208 cases of other muscle symptoms among 58 390 individuals with vascular disease treated with simvastatin for a mean of 3.4 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of myopathy. The rate of myopathy was low: 9 per 10 000 person-years of simvastatin therapy. Independent risk factors for myopathy included: simvastatin dose, ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, medically treated diabetes, concomitant use of niacin-laropiprant, verapamil, beta-blockers, diltiazem and diuretics. In combination, these risk factors predicted more than a 30-fold risk difference between the top and bottom thirds of a myopathy risk score (hazard ratio : 34.35, 95% CI: 12.73–92.69, P across thirds = 9·1 × 10⁻⁴⁸). However, despite the strong association with myopathy, this score was not associated with the other reported muscle symptoms (P across thirds = 0.93). Likewise, although SLCO1B1 genotype was associated with myopathy, it was not associated with other muscle symptoms.

Conclusions

The absolute risk of simvastatin-related myopathy is low, but individuals at higher risk can be identified to help guide patient management. The lack of association of the myopathy risk score with other muscle symptoms reinforces randomized placebo-controlled evidence that statins do not cause the vast majority of reported muscle symptoms.

Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with diffuse lung damage. Glucocorticoids may modulate inflammation-mediated lung injury and thereby reduce progression to respiratory failure and death.

METHODS

In this controlled, open-label trial comparing a range of possible treatments in patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned patients to receive oral or intravenous dexamethasone (at a dose of 6 mg once daily) for up to 10 days or to receive usual care alone. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Here, we report the final results of this assessment.

RESULTS

A total of 2104 patients were assigned to receive dexamethasone and 4321 to receive usual care. Overall, 482 patients (22.9%) in the dexamethasone group and 1110 patients (25.7%) in the usual care group died within 28 days after randomization (age-adjusted rate ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.93; P<0.001). The proportional and absolute between-group differences in mortality varied considerably according to the level of respiratory support that the patients were receiving at the time of randomization. In the dexamethasone group, the incidence of death was lower than that in the usual care group among patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (29.3% vs. 41.4%; rate ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.81) and among those receiving oxygen without invasive mechanical ventilation (23.3% vs. 26.2%; rate ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94) but not among those who were receiving no respiratory support at randomization (17.8% vs. 14.0%; rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.55).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the use of dexamethasone resulted in lower 28-day mortality among those who were receiving either invasive mechanical ventilation or oxygen alone at randomization but not among those receiving no respiratory support. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936; ISRCTN number, 50189673.).

Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with diffuse lung damage. Glucocorticoids may modulate inflammation-mediated lung injury and thereby reduce progression to respiratory failure and death.

METHODS

In this controlled, open-label trial comparing a range of possible treatments in patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned patients to receive oral or intravenous dexamethasone (at a dose of 6 mg once daily) for up to 10 days or to receive usual care alone. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Here, we report the final results of this assessment.

RESULTS

A total of 2104 patients were assigned to receive dexamethasone and 4321 to receive usual care. Overall, 482 patients (22.9%) in the dexamethasone group and 1110 patients (25.7%) in the usual care group died within 28 days after randomization (age-adjusted rate ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.93; P<0.001). The proportional and absolute between-group differences in mortality varied considerably according to the level of respiratory support that the patients were receiving at the time of randomization. In the dexamethasone group, the incidence of death was lower than that in the usual care group among patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (29.3% vs. 41.4%; rate ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.81) and among those receiving oxygen without invasive mechanical ventilation (23.3% vs. 26.2%; rate ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94) but not among those who were receiving no respiratory support at randomization (17.8% vs. 14.0%; rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.55).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the use of dexamethasone resulted in lower 28-day mortality among those who were receiving either invasive mechanical ventilation or oxygen alone at randomization but not among those receiving no respiratory support. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936; ISRCTN number, 50189673.).

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD

BACKGROUND

The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown.

METHODS

Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR).

RESULTS

Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m² increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06-genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m² genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD-associated risk.

Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been proposed as treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) on the basis of in vitro activity and data from uncontrolled studies and small, randomized trials.

METHODS

In this randomized, controlled, open-label platform trial comparing a range of possible treatments with usual care in patients hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned 1561 patients to receive hydroxychloroquine and 3155 to receive usual care. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

The enrollment of patients in the hydroxychloroquine group was closed on June 5, 2020, after an interim analysis determined that there was a lack of efficacy. Death within 28 days occurred in 421 patients (27.0%) in the hydroxychloroquine group and in 790 (25.0%) in the usual-care group (rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.23; P = 0.15). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients. The results suggest that patients in the hydroxychloroquine group were less likely to be discharged from the hospital alive within 28 days than those in the usual-care group (59.6% vs. 62.9%; rate ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98). Among the patients who were not undergoing mechanical ventilation at baseline, those in the hydroxychloroquine group had a higher frequency of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (30.7% vs. 26.9%; risk ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.27). There was a small numerical excess of cardiac deaths (0.4 percentage points) but no difference in the incidence of new major cardiac arrhythmia among the patients who received hydroxychloroquine.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients hospitalized with Covid-19, those who received hydroxychloroquine did not have a lower incidence of death at 28 days than those who received usual care. (Funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ISRCTN number, ISRCTN50189673; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936.).

Lopinavir-ritonavir in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

BACKGROUND

Lopinavir-ritonavir has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of in vitro activity, preclinical studies, and observational studies. Here, we report the results of a randomised trial to assess whether lopinavir-ritonavir improves outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.

METHODS

In this randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial, a range of possible treatments was compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus lopinavir-ritonavir (400 mg and 100 mg, respectively) by mouth for 10 days or until discharge (or one of the other RECOVERY treatment groups: hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone, or azithromycin) using web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment. Randomisation to usual care was twice that of any of the active treatment groups (eg, 2:1 in favour of usual care if the patient was eligible for only one active group, 2:1:1 if the patient was eligible for two active groups). The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis in all randomly assigned participants. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.

FINDINGS

Between March 19, 2020, and June 29, 2020, 1616 patients were randomly allocated to receive lopinavir-ritonavir and 3424 patients to receive usual care. Overall, 374 (23%) patients allocated to lopinavir-ritonavir and 767 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·91-1·17; p=0·60). Results were consistent across all prespecified subgroups of patients. We observed no significant difference in time until discharge alive from hospital (median 11 days [IQR 5 to >28] in both groups) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days (rate ratio 0·98, 95% CI 0·91-1·05; p=0·53). Among patients not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, there was no significant difference in the proportion who met the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (risk ratio 1·09, 95% CI 0·99-1·20; p=0·092).

INTERPRETATION

In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, lopinavir-ritonavir was not associated with reductions in 28-day mortality, duration of hospital stay, or risk of progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death. These findings do not support the use of lopinavir-ritonavir for treatment of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research.

Association Between Administration of Systemic Corticosteroids and Mortality Among Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19: A Meta-analysis

Importance

Effective therapies for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are needed, and clinical trial data have demonstrated that low-dose dexamethasone reduced mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who required respiratory support.

Objective

To estimate the association between administration of corticosteroids compared with usual care or placebo and 28-day all-cause mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective meta-analysis that pooled data from 7 randomized clinical trials that evaluated the efficacy of corticosteroids in 1703 critically ill patients with COVID-19. The trials were conducted in 12 countries from February 26, 2020, to June 9, 2020, and the date of final follow-up was July 6, 2020. Pooled data were aggregated from the individual trials, overall, and in predefined subgroups. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Inconsistency among trial results was assessed using the I2 statistic. The primary analysis was an inverse variance-weighted fixed-effect meta-analysis of overall mortality, with the association between the intervention and mortality quantified using odds ratios (ORs). Random-effects meta-analyses also were conducted (with the Paule-Mandel estimate of heterogeneity and the Hartung-Knapp adjustment) and an inverse variance-weighted fixed-effect analysis using risk ratios.

Exposures

Patients had been randomized to receive systemic dexamethasone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone (678 patients) or to receive usual care or placebo (1025 patients).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 28 days after randomization. A secondary outcome was investigator-defined serious adverse events.

Results

A total of 1703 patients (median age, 60 years [interquartile range, 52-68 years]; 488 [29%] women) were included in the analysis. Risk of bias was assessed as "low" for 6 of the 7 mortality results and as "some concerns" in 1 trial because of the randomization method. Five trials reported mortality at 28 days, 1 trial at 21 days, and 1 trial at 30 days. There were 222 deaths among the 678 patients randomized to corticosteroids and 425 deaths among the 1025 patients randomized to usual care or placebo (summary OR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.53-0.82]; P < .001 based on a fixed-effect meta-analysis). There was little inconsistency between the trial results (I2 = 15.6%; P = .31 for heterogeneity) and the summary OR was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.48-1.01; P = .053) based on the random-effects meta-analysis. The fixed-effect summary OR for the association with mortality was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.50-0.82; P < .001) for dexamethasone compared with usual care or placebo (3 trials, 1282 patients, and 527 deaths), the OR was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.43-1.12; P = .13) for hydrocortisone (3 trials, 374 patients, and 94 deaths), and the OR was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.29-2.87; P = .87) for methylprednisolone (1 trial, 47 patients, and 26 deaths). Among the 6 trials that reported serious adverse events, 64 events occurred among 354 patients randomized to corticosteroids and 80 events occurred among 342 patients randomized to usual care or placebo.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prospective meta-analysis of clinical trials of critically ill patients with COVID-19, administration of systemic corticosteroids, compared with usual care or placebo, was associated with lower 28-day all-cause mortality.

Accelerometer-measured physical activity and functional behaviours among people on dialysis

BACKGROUND

The feasibility of wrist-worn accelerometers, and the patterns and determinants of physical activity, among people on dialysis are uncertain.

METHODS

People on maintenance dialysis were fitted with a wrist-worn AxivityAX3 accelerometer. Subsets also wore a 14-day electrocardiograph patch (Zio^®PatchXT) and wearable cameras. Age-, sex- and season-matched UK Biobank control groups were derived for comparison.

RESULTS

Median (interquartile range) accelerometer wear time for the 101 recruits was 12.5 (10.4-13.5) days, of which 73 participants (mean age 66.5 years) had excellent wear on both dialysis and non-dialysis days. Mean (standard error) overall physical activity levels were 15.5 (0.7) milligravity units (mg), 14.8 (0.7) mg on dialysis days versus 16.2 (0.8) mg on non-dialysis days. This compared with 28.1 (0.5) mg for apparently healthy controls, 23.4 (0.4) mg for controls with prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) and/or diabetes mellitus and 22.9 (0.6) mg for heart failure controls. Each day, we estimated that those on dialysis spent an average of about 1 hour (h/day) walking, 0.6 h/day engaging in moderate-intensity activity, 0.7 h/day on light tasks, 13.2 h/day sedentary and 8.6 h/day asleep. Older age and self-reported leg weakness were associated with decreased levels of physical activity, but the presence of prior CVD, arrhythmias and listing for transplantation were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Wrist-worn accelerometers are an acceptable and reliable method to measure physical activity in people on dialysis and may also be used to estimate functional behaviours. Among people on dialysis, who are broadly half as active as general population controls, age and leg weakness appear to be more important determinants of low activity levels than CVD.

COVID-19 pandemic and admission rates for and management of acute coronary syndromes in England

BACKGROUND

Several countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have reported a substantial drop in the number of patients attending the emergency department with acute coronary syndromes and a reduced number of cardiac procedures. We aimed to understand the scale, nature, and duration of changes to admissions for different types of acute coronary syndrome in England and to evaluate whether in-hospital management of patients has been affected as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We analysed data on hospital admissions in England for types of acute coronary syndrome from Jan 1, 2019, to May 24, 2020, that were recorded in the Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care database. Admissions were classified as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI), myocardial infarction of unknown type, or other acute coronary syndromes (including unstable angina). We identified revascularisation procedures undertaken during these admissions (ie, coronary angiography without percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI], PCI, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery). We calculated the numbers of weekly admissions and procedures undertaken; percentage reductions in weekly admissions and across subgroups were also calculated, with 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

Hospital admissions for acute coronary syndrome declined from mid-February, 2020, falling from a 2019 baseline rate of 3017 admissions per week to 1813 per week by the end of March, 2020, a reduction of 40% (95% CI 37-43). This decline was partly reversed during April and May, 2020, such that by the last week of May, 2020, there were 2522 admissions, representing a 16% (95% CI 13-20) reduction from baseline. During the period of declining admissions, there were reductions in the numbers of admissions for all types of acute coronary syndrome, including both STEMI and NSTEMI, but relative and absolute reductions were larger for NSTEMI, with 1267 admissions per week in 2019 and 733 per week by the end of March, 2020, a percent reduction of 42% (95% CI 38-46). In parallel, reductions were recorded in the number of PCI procedures for patients with both STEMI (438 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 346 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 21%, 95% CI 12-29) and NSTEMI (383 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 240 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 37%, 29-45). The median length of stay among patients with acute coronary syndrome fell from 4 days (IQR 2-9) in 2019 to 3 days (1-5) by the end of March, 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Compared with the weekly average in 2019, there was a substantial reduction in the weekly numbers of patients with acute coronary syndrome who were admitted to hospital in England by the end of March, 2020, which had been partly reversed by the end of May, 2020. The reduced number of admissions during this period is likely to have resulted in increases in out-of-hospital deaths and long-term complications of myocardial infarction and missed opportunities to offer secondary prevention treatment for patients with coronary heart disease. The full extent of the effect of COVID-19 on the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome will continue to be assessed by updating these analyses.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Investigating modifications to participant information materials to improve recruitment into a large randomized trial

Background

Large randomized trials are the best method to test the efficacy and safety of treatments expected to have moderate effects. We observed a significant decline in potential participants’ response to mailed invitations to participate in such trials over a 10-year period and investigated possible reasons behind this and potential modifications to the invitation process to mitigate it.

Methods

Participants who declined to participate in the HPS2-THRIVE trial were asked to give a reason. Formal focus groups were conducted to explore the reasons that potential participants might have for not participating. In addition, two embedded randomized comparisons around the timing of provision of the full participant information leaflet (PIL) and its style were conducted during recruitment into this large randomized trial. HPS2-THRIVE is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00461630).

Results

The commonest reason given for declining invitations related to mobility and transportation (despite the offer of travel expenses). Both the focus groups and potential participants who declined their invitation indicated concern about side-effects of the treatment (as presented in the PIL) as a reason for declining the invitation. Neither delaying provision of the full PIL until the potential participant attended the trial clinic, nor modifying the style of the PIL improved the proportion of potential participants entering the trial: odds ratio (OR) 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94–1.17) and 1.10 (95% CI 0.94–1.28), respectively. However, modifying the style of the PIL did increase the proportion of participants attending screening appointments (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03–1.33).

Conclusions

Many reasons given for not participating in trials are not tractable to individual trials. However, modification of the PIL does show potential to modestly improve participation. If further trials could identify similar simple interventions that were beneficial, their net effects could substantially improve trial participation and facilitate recruitment into large trials.

Effects of Sacubitril/Valsartan Versus Irbesartan in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

Sacubitril/valsartan reduces the risk of cardiovascular mortality among patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, but its effects on kidney function and cardiac biomarkers in people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease are unknown.

METHODS

The UK HARP-III trial (United Kingdom Heart and Renal Protection-III), a randomized double-blind trial, included 414 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) 20 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m² who were randomly assigned to sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg twice daily versus irbesartan 300 mg once daily. The primary outcome was measured GFR at 12 months using ANCOVA with adjustment for each individual's baseline measured GFR. All analyses were by intention to treat.

RESULTS

In total, 207 participants were assigned to sacubitril/valsartan and 207 to irbesartan. Baseline measured GFR was 34.0 (SE, 0.8) and 34.7 (SE, 0.8) mL/min/1.73 m², respectively. At 12 months, there was no difference in measured GFR: 29.8 (SE 0.5) among those assigned sacubitril/valsartan versus 29.9 (SE, 0.5) mL/min/1.73 m² among those assigned irbesartan; difference, -0.1 (0.7) mL/min/1.73 m². Effects were similar in all prespecified subgroups. There was also no significant difference in estimated GFR at 3, 6, 9, or 12 months and no clear difference in urinary albumin:creatinine ratio between treatment arms (study average difference, -9%; 95% CI, -18 to 1). However, compared with irbesartan, allocation to sacubitril/valsartan reduced study average systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 5.4 (95% CI, 3.4-7.4) and 2.1 (95% CI, 1.0-3.3) mm Hg and levels of troponin I and N terminal of prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (tertiary end points) by 16% (95% CI, 8-23) and 18% (95% CI, 11-25), respectively. The incidence of serious adverse events (29.5% versus 28.5%; rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.75-1.53), nonserious adverse reactions (36.7% versus 28.0%; rate ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.96-1.90), and potassium ≥5.5 mmol/L (32% versus 24%, P=0.10) was not significantly different between randomized groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 12 months, sacubitril/valsartan has similar effects on kidney function and albuminuria to irbesartan, but it has the additional effect of lowering blood pressure and cardiac biomarkers in people with chronic kidney disease.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.isrctn.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN11958993.

Impact of ADCY9 Genotype on Response to Anacetrapib

BACKGROUND

Exploratory analyses of previous randomized trials generated a hypothesis that the clinical response to cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibitor therapy differs by ADCY9 genotype, prompting the ongoing dal-GenE trial in individuals with a particular genetic profile. The randomized placebo-controlled REVEAL trial (Randomized Evaluation of the Effects of Anacetrapib through Lipid-Modification) demonstrated the clinical efficacy of the CETP inhibitor anacetrapib among patients with preexisting atherosclerotic vascular disease. In the present study, we examined the impact of ADCY9 genotype on response to anacetrapib in the REVEAL trial.

METHODS

Individuals with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease who were treated with intensive atorvastatin therapy received either anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for the first 5 principal components of ancestry, were used to estimate the effects of allocation to anacetrapib on major vascular events (a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or presumed ischemic stroke) and the interaction with ADCY9 rs1967309 genotype.

RESULTS

Among 19 210 genotyped individuals of European ancestry, 2504 (13.0%) had a first major vascular event during 4 years median follow-up: 1216 (12.6%) among anacetrapib-allocated participants and 1288 (13.4%) among placebo-allocated participants. Proportional reductions in the risk of major vascular events with anacetrapib did not differ significantly by ADCY9 genotype: hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92 (95% CI, 0.81-1.05) for GG; HR = 0.94 (95% CI, 0.84-1.06) for AG; and HR = 0.93 (95% CI, 0.76-1.13) for AA genotype carriers, respectively; genotypic P for interaction = 0.96. Furthermore, there were no associations between ADCY9 genotype and the proportional reductions in the separate components of major vascular events or meaningful differences in lipid response to anacetrapib.

CONCLUSIONS

The REVEAL trial is the single largest study to date evaluating the ADCY9 pharmacogenetic interaction. It provides no support for the hypothesis that ADCY9 genotype is materially relevant to the clinical effects of the CETP inhibitor anacetrapib. The ongoing dal-GenE study will provide direct evidence as to whether there is any specific pharmacogenetic interaction with dalcetrapib.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov. Unique identifier: NCT01252953. URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN48678192. URL: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu. Unique identifier: 2010-023467-18.

Serious Adverse Effects of Extended-release Niacin/Laropiprant: Results From the Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) Trial

PURPOSE

The Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) trial of patients at high risk of vascular disease found that adding extended-release niacin-laropiprant to intensive statin-based LDL-lowering therapy had no benefit on cardiovascular outcomes. However, the trial also identified previously unrecognized serious adverse effects (including new-onset diabetes, bleeding, and infection). Our objective was to explore the safety profile of niacin-laropiprant and examine whether any patients were at lower (or higher) risk of its adverse effects.

METHODS

HPS2-THRIVE was a randomized, double-blind trial of niacin-laropiprant (2000/40 mg/d) versus placebo among 25,673 patients at high risk of vascular disease. Information on all serious adverse events was collected during a median of 3.9 years of study treatment. Effects of niacin-laropiprant on new-onset diabetes, disturbances of diabetes control, bleeding, infection, and gastrointestinal upset were estimated by (1) time after randomization, (2) severity, (3) baseline characteristics, (4) baseline risk of the adverse event of interest, and (5) risk of major vascular event.

FINDINGS

The hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset diabetes with niacin/laropiprant was 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16-1.51; P < .001), which corresponded to an absolute excess of 4 people (95% CI, 2-6) developing diabetes per 1000 person-years in the study population as a whole. Among the 8299 participants with diabetes at baseline, the HR for serious disturbances in diabetes control was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.35-1.80), corresponding to an absolute excess of 12 (95% CI, 8-16) per 1000 person-years. The HR was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.17-1.63; P < .001) for serious bleeding, corresponding to an absolute excess of 2 (95% CI, 1-3) per 1000 person-years and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.11-1.34; P < .001) for serious infection, corresponding to an absolute excess of 4 (95% CI, 2-6) per 1000 person-years. The excess risks of these serious adverse events were larger in the first year after starting niacin-laropiprant therapy than in later years (except for the excess of infection, which did not appear to attenuate with time), and the risks of nonfatal and fatal events were similarly increased. The absolute excesses of each of these adverse effects were similar regardless of the baseline risk of the outcome.

IMPLICATIONS

Practitioners or patients considering the use of niacin (in addition to, or instead of, a statin) despite the lack of evidence of cardiovascular benefits (at least when added to effective statin therapy) should take account of the significant risks of these serious adverse effects when making such decisions. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00461630.

Cost-effectiveness of lipid lowering with statins and ezetimibe in chronic kidney disease

Statin-based treatments reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear which regimen is the most cost-effective. We used the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) CKD-CVD policy model to evaluate the effect of statins and ezetimibe on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Net costs below $100,000/QALY (US) or £20,000/QALY (UK) were considered cost-effective. We investigated statin regimens with or without ezetimibe 10 mg. Treatment effects on cardiovascular risk were estimated per 1-mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as reported in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, and reductions in LDL cholesterol were estimated for each statin/ezetimibe regimen. In the US, atorvastatin 40 mg ($0.103/day as of January 2019) increased life expectancy by 0.23 to 0.31 QALYs in non-dialysis patients with stages 3B to 5 CKD, at a net cost of $20,300 to $78,200/QALY. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg ($0.203/day) increased life expectancy by an additional 0.05 to 0.07 QALYs, at a net cost of $43,600 to $91,500/QALY. The cost-effectiveness findings and policy implications in the UK were similar. In summary, in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, the evidence suggests that statin/ezetimibe combination therapy is a cost-effective treatment to reduce the risk of CVD.

Erratum: The potential for improving cardio-renal outcomes by sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in people with chronic kidney disease: a rationale for the EMPA-KIDNEY study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfy090.].

Efficacy and safety of statin therapy in older people: a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Statin therapy has been shown to reduce major vascular events and vascular mortality in a wide range of individuals, but there is uncertainty about its efficacy and safety among older people. We undertook a meta-analysis of data from all large statin trials to compare the effects of statin therapy at different ages.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, randomised trials of statin therapy were eligible if they aimed to recruit at least 1000 participants with a scheduled treatment duration of at least 2 years. We analysed individual participant data from 22 trials (n=134 537) and detailed summary data from one trial (n=12 705) of statin therapy versus control, plus individual participant data from five trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (n=39 612). We subdivided participants into six age groups (55 years or younger, 56-60 years, 61-65 years, 66-70 years, 71-75 years, and older than 75 years). We estimated effects on major vascular events (ie, major coronary events, strokes, and coronary revascularisations), cause-specific mortality, and cancer incidence as the rate ratio (RR) per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. We compared proportional risk reductions in different age subgroups by use of standard χ2 tests for heterogeneity when there were two groups, or trend when there were more than two groups.

FINDINGS

14 483 (8%) of 186 854 participants in the 28 trials were older than 75 years at randomisation, and the median follow-up duration was 4·9 years. Overall, statin therapy or a more intensive statin regimen produced a 21% (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·77-0·81) proportional reduction in major vascular events per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. We observed a significant reduction in major vascular events in all age groups. Although proportional reductions in major vascular events diminished slightly with age, this trend was not statistically significant (ptrend=0·06). Overall, statin or more intensive therapy yielded a 24% (RR 0·76, 95% CI 0·73-0·79) proportional reduction in major coronary events per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, and with increasing age, we observed a trend towards smaller proportional risk reductions in major coronary events (ptrend=0·009). We observed a 25% (RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·73-0·78) proportional reduction in the risk of coronary revascularisation procedures with statin therapy or a more intensive statin regimen per 1·0 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol, which did not differ significantly across age groups (ptrend=0·6). Similarly, the proportional reductions in stroke of any type (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80-0·89) did not differ significantly across age groups (ptrend=0·7). After exclusion of four trials which enrolled only patients with heart failure or undergoing renal dialysis (among whom statin therapy has not been shown to be effective), the trend to smaller proportional risk reductions with increasing age persisted for major coronary events (ptrend=0·01), and remained non-significant for major vascular events (ptrend=0·3). The proportional reduction in major vascular events was similar, irrespective of age, among patients with pre-existing vascular disease (ptrend=0·2), but appeared smaller among older than among younger individuals not known to have vascular disease (ptrend=0·05). We found a 12% (RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·85-0·91) proportional reduction in vascular mortality per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, with a trend towards smaller proportional reductions with older age (ptrend=0·004), but this trend did not persist after exclusion of the heart failure or dialysis trials (ptrend=0·2). Statin therapy had no effect at any age on non-vascular mortality, cancer death, or cancer incidence.

INTERPRETATION

Statin therapy produces significant reductions in major vascular events irrespective of age, but there is less direct evidence of benefit among patients older than 75 years who do not already have evidence of occlusive vascular disease. This limitation is now being addressed by further trials.

FUNDING

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation.

Relationship of Estimated GFR and Albuminuria to Concurrent Laboratory Abnormalities: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis in a Global Consortium

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is complicated by abnormalities that reflect disruption in filtration, tubular, and endocrine functions of the kidney. Our aim was to explore the relationship of specific laboratory result abnormalities and hypertension with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria CKD staging framework.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional individual participant-level analyses in a global consortium.

SETTING & STUDY POPULATIONS

17 CKD and 38 general population and high-risk cohorts.

SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES

Cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data for eGFR and albuminuria, as well as a measurement of hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, or calcium, or hypertension.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were obtained and analyzed between July 2015 and January 2018.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

We modeled the association of eGFR and albuminuria with hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, and calcium values using linear regression and with hypertension and categorical definitions of each abnormality using logistic regression. Results were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

The CKD cohorts (n=254,666 participants) were 27% women and 10% black, with a mean age of 69 (SD, 12) years. The general population/high-risk cohorts (n=1,758,334) were 50% women and 2% black, with a mean age of 50 (16) years. There was a strong graded association between lower eGFR and all laboratory result abnormalities (ORs ranging from 3.27 [95% CI, 2.68-3.97] to 8.91 [95% CI, 7.22-10.99] comparing eGFRs of 15 to 29 with eGFRs of 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m2), whereas albuminuria had equivocal or weak associations with abnormalities (ORs ranging from 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60-0.99] to 1.92 [95% CI, 1.65-2.24] comparing urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 300 vs < 30mg/g).

LIMITATIONS

Variations in study era, health care delivery system, typical diet, and laboratory assays.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower eGFR was strongly associated with higher odds of multiple laboratory result abnormalities. Knowledge of risk associations might help guide management in the heterogeneous group of patients with CKD.

The potential for improving cardio-renal outcomes by sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in people with chronic kidney disease: a rationale for the EMPA-KIDNEY study

Diabetes is a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but in aggregate, non-diabetic diseases account for a higher proportion of cases of CKD than diabetes in many parts of the world. Inhibition of the renin–angiotensin system reduces the risk of kidney disease progression and treatments that lower blood pressure (BP) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk in this population. Nevertheless, despite such interventions, considerable risks for kidney and CV complications remain. Recently, large placebo-controlled outcome trials have shown that sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors reduce the risk of CV disease (including CV death and hospitalization for heart failure) in people with type 2 diabetes who are at high risk of atherosclerotic disease, and these effects were largely independent of improvements in hyperglycaemia, BP and body weight. In the kidney, increased sodium delivery to the macula densa mediated by SGLT-2 inhibition has the potential to reduce intraglomerular pressure, which may explain why SGLT-2 inhibitors reduce albuminuria and appear to slow kidney function decline in people with diabetes. Importantly, in the trials completed to date, these benefits appeared to be maintained at lower levels of kidney function, despite attenuation of glycosuric effects, and did not appear to be dependent on ambient hyperglycaemia. There is therefore a rationale for studying the cardio-renal effects of SGLT-2 inhibition in people at risk of CV disease and hyperfiltration (i.e. those with substantially reduced nephron mass and/or albuminuria), irrespective of whether they have diabetes.

Trends in the Incidence and Recurrence of Inpatient-Treated Spontaneous Pneumothorax, 1968-2016

IMPORTANCE

Spontaneous pneumothorax is a common disease known to have an unusual epidemiological profile, but there are limited contemporary population-based data.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax, its recurrence and trends over time using large, longstanding hospitalization data sets in England.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A population-based epidemiological study was conducted using an English national data set and an English regional data set, each spanning 1968 to 2016, and including 170 929 hospital admission records of patients 15 years and older. Final date of the study period was December 31, 2016.

EXPOSURES

Calendar year (for incidence) and readmission to hospital for spontaneous pneumothorax (for recurrence).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcomes were rates of hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax and recurrence, defined as a subsequent hospital readmission with spontaneous pneumothorax. Record-linkage was used to identify multiple admissions per person and comorbidity. Risk factors for recurrence over 5 years of follow-up were assessed using cumulative time-to-failure analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

From 1968 to 2016, there were 170 929 hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax (median age, 44 years [IQR, 26-88]; 73.0% male). In 2016, there were 14.1 spontaneous pneumothorax admissions per 100 000 population 15 years and older (95% CI, 13.7-14.4), a significant increase compared with earlier years, up from 9.1 (95% CI, 8.1-10.1) in 1968. The population-based rate per 100 000 population 15 years and older was higher for males (20.8 [95% CI, 20.2-21.4]) than for females (7.6 [95% CI, 7.2-7.9]). Of patients with spontaneous pneumothorax, 60.8% (95% CI, 59.5%-62.0%) had chronic lung disease. Record-linkage analysis demonstrated that the overall increase in admissions over time could be due in part to an increase in repeat admissions, but there were also significant increases in the annual rate of first-known spontaneous pneumothorax admissions in some population subgroups, for example in women 65 years and older (annual percentage change from 1968 to 2016, 4.08 [95% CI, 3.33-4.82], P < .001). The probability of recurrence within 5 years was similar by sex (25.5% [95% CI, 25.1%-25.9%] for males vs 26.0% [95% CI, 25.3%-26.7%] for females), but there was variation by age group and presence of chronic lung disease. For example, the probability of readmission within 5 years among males aged 15 to 34 years with chronic lung disease was 39.2% (95% CI, 37.7%-40.7%) compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 18.2%-21.1%) in men 65 years and older without chronic lung disease.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study provides contemporary information regarding the trends in incidence and recurrence of inpatient-treated spontaneous pneumothorax.

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 and Risks of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Diseases: A Meta-Analysis

Background Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) has been hypothesized to play a role in the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with CKD.Methods We identified prospective studies reporting associations between FGF-23 concentration and risk of cardiovascular events. Maximally adjusted risk ratios (RRs) were extracted for each outcome and scaled to a comparison of the top versus bottom third of the baseline FGF-23 concentration, and the results aggregated.Results Depending on the assay used, median FGF-23 concentrations were 43-74 RU/ml and 38-47 pg/ml in 17 general population cohorts; 102-392 RU/ml in nine cohorts of patients with CKD not requiring dialysis; and 79-4212 RU/ml and 2526-5555 pg/ml in eight cohorts of patients on dialysis. Overall, comparing participants in the top and bottom FGF-23 concentration thirds, the summary RRs (95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) were 1.33 (1.12 to 1.58) for myocardial infarction, 1.26 (1.13 to 1.41) for stroke, 1.48 (1.29 to 1.69) for heart failure, 1.42 (1.27 to 1.60) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.70 (1.52 to 1.91) for all-cause mortality. The summary RR for noncardiovascular mortality, calculated indirectly, was 1.52 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.79). When studies were ordered by average differences in FGF-23 concentration between the top and bottom thirds, there was no trend in RRs across the studies.Conclusions The similarly-sized associations between increased FGF-23 concentration and cardiovascular (atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic) and noncardiovascular outcomes, together with the absence of any exposure-response relationship, suggest that the relationship between FGF-23 and cardiovascular disease risk may be noncausal.

Campath, calcineurin inhibitor reduction, and chronic allograft nephropathy (the 3C Study) - results of a randomized controlled clinical trial

Calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs, eg, tacrolimus) reduce short-term kidney transplant failure, but chronic nephrotoxicity may contribute to late transplant loss. Elective conversion to inhibitors of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR, eg, sirolimus) pathway might avoid long-term CNI renal damage and improve outcomes. The 3C Study was a pragmatic randomized controlled trial of sequential randomizations between alemtuzumab and basiliximab induction therapy (at the time of surgery) and between tacrolimus and sirolimus maintenance therapy at 6 months posttransplantation. The primary outcome of this analysis was estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at 18 months after maintenance therapy randomization; 197 patients were assigned sirolimus-based and 197 to tacrolimus-based therapy. Allocation to sirolimus had no significant effect on eGFR at 18 months: baseline-adjusted mean (SEM) eGFR was 53.7 (0.9) mL/min/1.73 m² in the sirolimus group versus 54.6 (0.9) mL/min/1.73 m² in the tacrolimus group (P = .50). Biopsy-proven acute rejection (29 [14.7%]) vs 6 [3.0%]; P < .001) and serious infections (defined as opportunistic infections or those requiring hospitalization; 95 [48.2%] vs 70 [35.5%]; P = .008) were more common among participants allocated sirolimus. Compared with tacrolimus-based therapy, sirolimus-based maintenance therapy did not improve transplant function at 18 months after conversion and was associated with significant hazards of rejection and infection. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01120028 and ISRCTN88894088.

Declining comorbidity-adjusted mortality rates in English patients receiving maintenance renal replacement therapy

We aimed to compare long-term mortality trends in end-stage renal disease versus general population controls after accounting for differences in age, sex and comorbidity. Cohorts of 45,000 patients starting maintenance renal replacement therapy (RRT) and 5.3 million hospital controls were identified from two large electronic hospital inpatient data sets: the Oxford Record Linkage Study (1965-1999) and all-England Hospital Episode Statistics (2000-2011). All-cause and cause-specific three-year mortality rates for both populations were calculated using Poisson regression and standardized to the age, sex, and comorbidity structure of an average 1970-2008 RRT population. The median age at initiation of RRT in 1970-1990 was 49 years, increasing to 61 years by 2006-2008. Over that period, there were increases in the prevalence of vascular disease (from 10.0 to 25.2%) and diabetes (from 6.7 to 33.9%). After accounting for age, sex and comorbidity differences, standardized three-year all-cause mortality rates in treated patients with end-stage renal disease between 1970 and 2011 fell by about one-half (relative decline 51%, 95% confidence interval 41-60%) steeper than the one-third decline (34%, 31-36%) observed in the general population. Declines in three-year mortality rates were evident among those who received a kidney transplant and those who remained on dialysis, and among those with and without diabetes. These data suggest that the full extent of mortality rate declines among RRT patients since 1970 is only apparent when changes in comorbidity over time are taken into account, and that mortality rates in RRT patients appear to have declined faster than in the general population.

Challenges in conducting clinical trials in nephrology: conclusions from a Kidney Disease-Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference

Despite the high costs of treatment of people with kidney disease and associated comorbid conditions, the amount of reliable information available to guide the care of such patients is very limited. Some treatments have been assessed in randomized trials, but most such trials have been too small to detect treatment effects of a magnitude that would be realistic to achieve with a single intervention. Therefore, KDIGO convened an international, multidisciplinary controversies conference titled "Challenges in the Conduct of Clinical Trials in Nephrology" to identify the key barriers to conducting trials in patients with kidney disease. The conference began with plenary talks focusing on the key areas of discussion that included appropriate trial design (covering identification and evaluation of kidney and nonkidney disease outcomes) and sensible trial execution (with particular emphasis on streamlining both design and conduct). Break out group discussions followed in which the key areas of agreement and remaining controversy were identified. Here we summarize the main findings from the conference and set out a range of potential solutions. If followed, these solutions could ensure future trials among people with kidney disease are sufficiently robust to provide reliable answers and are not constrained by inappropriate complexities in design or conduct.

2017 Cardiovascular and Stroke Endpoint Definitions for Clinical Trials

This publication describes uniform definitions for cardiovascular and stroke outcomes developed by the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA established the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative in 2009 to simplify the design and conduct of clinical trials intended to support marketing applications. The writing committee recognizes that these definitions may be used in other types of clinical trials and clinical care processes where appropriate. Use of these definitions at the FDA has enhanced the ability to aggregate data within and across medical product development programs, conduct meta-analyses to evaluate cardiovascular safety, integrate data from multiple trials, and compare effectiveness of drugs and devices. Further study is needed to determine whether prospective data collection using these common definitions improves the design, conduct, and interpretability of the results of clinical trials.

Prognostic utility of estimated albumin excretion rate in chronic kidney disease: results from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection

Background

Estimated albumin excretion rate (eAER) provides a better estimate of 24-h albuminuria than albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR). However, whether eAER is superior to ACR in predicting end-stage renal disease (ESRD), vascular events (VEs) or death is uncertain.

Methods

The prognostic utility of ACR and eAER (estimated from ACR, sex, age and race) to predict mortality, ESRD and VEs was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression among 5552 participants with chronic kidney disease in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection, who were not on dialysis at baseline.

Results

During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 1959 participants developed ESRD, 1204 had a VE and 1130 died (641 from a non-vascular, 369 from a vascular and 120 from an unknown cause). After adjustment for age, sex and eGFR, both ACR and eAER were strongly and similarly associated with ESRD risk. The average relative risk (RR) per 10-fold higher level was 2.70 (95% confidence interval 2.45-2.98) for ACR and 2.67 (2.43-2.94) for eAER. Neither ACR nor eAER provided any additional prognostic information for ESRD risk over and above the other. For VEs, there were modest positive associations between both ACR and eAER and risk [adjusted RR per 10-fold higher level 1.37 (1.22-1.53) for ACR and 1.36 (1.22-1.52) for eAER]. Again, neither measure added prognostic information over and above the other. Similar results were observed when ACR and eAER were related to vascular mortality [RR per 10-fold higher level: 1.64 (1.33-2.03) and 1.62 (1.32-2.00), respectively] or to non-vascular mortality [1.53 (1.31-1.79) and 1.50 (1.29-1.76), respectively].

Conclusions

In this study, eAER did not improve risk prediction of ESRD, VEs or mortality.

Use of Mobile Devices to Measure Outcomes in Clinical Research, 2010-2016: A Systematic Literature Review

Background

The use of mobile devices in clinical research has advanced substantially in recent years due to the rapid pace of technology development. With an overall aim of informing the future use of mobile devices in interventional clinical research to measure primary outcomes, we conducted a systematic review of the use of and clinical outcomes measured by mobile devices (mobile outcomes) in observational and interventional clinical research.

Method

We conducted a PubMed search using a range of search terms to retrieve peer-reviewed articles on clinical research published between January 2010 and May 2016 in which mobile devices were used to measure study outcomes. We screened each publication for specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. We then identified and qualitatively summarized the use of mobile outcome assessments in clinical research, including the type and design of the study, therapeutic focus, type of mobile device(s) used, and specific mobile outcomes reported.

Results

The search retrieved 2,530 potential articles of interest. After screening, 88 publications remained. Twenty-five percent of the publications (n = 22) described mobile outcomes used in interventional research, and the rest (n = 66) described observational clinical research. Thirteen therapeutic areas were represented. Five categories of mobile devices were identified: (1) inertial sensors, (2) biosensors, (3) pressure sensors and walkways, (4) medication adherence monitors, and (5) location monitors; inertial sensors/accelerometers were most common (reported in 86% of the publications). Among the variety of mobile outcomes, various assessments of physical activity were most common (reported in 74% of the publications). Other mobile outcomes included assessments of sleep, mobility, and pill adherence, as well as biomarkers assessed using a mobile device, including cardiac measures, glucose, gastric reflux, respiratory measures, and intensity of head-related injury.

Conclusion

Mobile devices are being widely used in clinical research to assess outcomes, although their use in interventional research to assess therapeutic effectiveness is limited. For mobile devices to be used more frequently in pivotal interventional research – such as trials informing regulatory decision-making – more focus should be placed on: (1) consolidating the evidence supporting the clinical meaningfulness of specific mobile outcomes, and (2) standardizing the use of mobile devices in clinical research to measure specific mobile outcomes (e.g., data capture frequencies, placement of device). To that aim, this manuscript offers a broad overview of the various mobile outcome assessments currently used in observational and interventional research, and categorizes and consolidates this information for researchers interested in using mobile devices to assess outcomes in interventional research.

Impact of CKD on Household Income

Introduction

The impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on income is unclear. We sought to determine whether CKD severity, serious adverse events, and CKD progression affected household income.

Methods

Analyses were undertaken in a prospective cohort of adults with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), with household income information available at baseline screening and study end. Logistic regressions, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, smoking, and prior diseases at baseline, estimated associations during the 5-year follow-up, among (i) baseline CKD severity, (ii) incident nonfatal serious adverse events (vascular or cancer), and (iii) CKD treatment modality (predialysis, dialysis, or transplanted) at study end and the outcome “fall into relative poverty.” This was defined as household income <50% of country median income.

Results

A total of 2914 SHARP participants from 14 countries were included in the main analysis. Of these, 933 (32%) were in relative poverty at screening; of the remaining 1981, 436 (22%) fell into relative poverty by study end. Compared with participants with stage 3 CKD at baseline, the odds of falling into poverty were 51% higher for those with stage 4 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–2.10), 66% higher for those with stage 5 (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.11–2.47), and 78% higher for those on dialysis at baseline (OR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.22–2.60). Participants with kidney transplant at study end had approximately half the risk of those on dialysis or those with CKD stages 3 to 5.

Conclusion

More advanced CKD is associated with increased odds of falling into poverty. Kidney transplantation may have a role in reducing this risk.

Lowering LDL cholesterol reduces cardiovascular risk independently of presence of inflammation

Markers of inflammation, including plasma C-reactive protein (CRP), are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, and it has been suggested that this association is causal. However, the relationship between inflammation and cardiovascular disease has not been extensively studied in patients with chronic kidney disease. To evaluate this, we used data from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) to assess associations between circulating CRP and LDL cholesterol levels and the risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes. Major vascular events were defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction, cardiac death, stroke or arterial revascularization, with an expanded outcome of vascular events of any type. Higher baseline CRP was associated with an increased risk of major vascular events (hazard ratio per 3x increase 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.38). Higher baseline LDL cholesterol was also associated with an increased risk of major vascular events (hazard ratio per 0.6 mmol/L higher LDL cholesterol; 1.14, 1.06-1.22). Higher baseline CRP was associated with an increased risk of a range of non-vascular events (1.16, 1.12-1.21), but there was a weak inverse association between baseline LDL cholesterol and non-vascular events (0.96, 0.92-0.99). The efficacy of lowering LDL cholesterol with simvastatin/ezetimibe on major vascular events, in the randomized comparison, was similar irrespective of CRP concentration at baseline. Thus, decisions to offer statin-based therapy to patients with chronic kidney disease should continue to be guided by their absolute risk of atherosclerotic events. Estimation of such risk may include plasma biomarkers of inflammation, but there is no evidence that the relative beneficial effects of reducing LDL cholesterol depends on plasma CRP concentration.

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .).

A policy model of cardiovascular disease in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease

OBJECTIVE

To present a long-term policy model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

A Markov model with transitions between CKD stages (3B, 4, 5, on dialysis, with kidney transplant) and cardiovascular events (major atherosclerotic events, haemorrhagic stroke, vascular death) was developed with individualised CKD and CVD risks estimated using the 5 years' follow-up data of the 9270 patients with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) and multivariate parametric survival analysis. The model was assessed in three further CKD cohorts and compared with currently used risk scores.

RESULTS

Higher age, previous cardiovascular events and advanced CKD were the main contributors to increased individual disease risks. CKD and CVD risks predicted by the state-transition model corresponded well to risks observed in SHARP and external cohorts. The model's predictions of vascular risk and progression to end-stage renal disease were better than, or comparable to, those produced by other risk scores. As an illustration, at age 60-69 years, projected survival for SHARP participants in CKD stage 3B was 13.5 years (10.6 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) in men and 14.8 years (10.7 QALYs) in women. Corresponding projections for participants on dialysis were 7.5 (5.6 QALYs) and 7.8 years (5.4 QALYs). A non-fatal major atherosclerotic event reduced life expectancy by about 2 years in stage 3B and by 1 year in dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHARP CKD-CVD model is a novel resource for evaluating health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of interventions in CKD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00125593 and ISRCTN54137607; Post-results.