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Tench H, Phipps J, Loosley R, Wolf-Roberts R, Coetzee S, Omar Z, Ross A, Card B, Carr C, King C, Wood C, Copeland D, Calvelo E, Chilvers ER, Russell E, Gordon H, Nunag JL, Schronce J, March K, Samuel K, Burden L, Evison L, McLeavey L, Orriss-Dib L, Tarusan L, Mariveles M, Roy M, Mohamed N, Simpson N, Yasmin N, Cullinan P, Daly P, Haq S, Moriera S, Fayzan T, Munawar U, Nwanguma U, Lingford-Hughes A, Altmann D, Johnston D, Mitchell J, Valabhji J, Price L, Molyneaux PL, Thwaites RS, Walsh S, Frankel A, Lightstone L, Wilkins M, Willicombe M, McAdoo S, Touyz R, Guerdette AM, Warwick K, Hewitt M, Reddy R, White S, McMahon A, Hoare A, Knighton A, Ramos A, Te A, Jolley CJ, Speranza F, Assefa-Kebede H, Peralta I, Breeze J, Shevket K, Powell N, Adeyemi O, Dulawan P, Adrego R, Byrne S, Patale S, Hayday A, Malim M, Pariante C, Sharpe C, Whitney J, Bramham K, Ismail K, Wessely S, Nicholson T, Ashworth A, Humphries A, Tan AL, Whittam B, Coupland C, Favager C, Peckham D, Wade E, Saalmink G, Clarke J, 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D, Walsh JA, Liyanage K, Gummadi M, Dormand N, Polgar O, George P, Barker RE, Patel S, Price L, Gibbons M, Matila D, Jarvis H, Lim L, Olaosebikan O, Ahmad S, Brill S, Mandal S, Laing C, Michael A, Reddy A, Johnson C, Baxendale H, Parfrey H, Mackie J, Newman J, Pack J, Parmar J, Paques K, Garner L, Harvey A, Summersgill C, Holgate D, Hardy E, Oxton J, Pendlebury J, McMorrow L, Mairs N, Majeed N, Dark P, Ugwuoke R, Knight S, Whittaker S, Strong-Sheldrake S, Matimba-Mupaya W, Chowienczyk P, Pattenadk D, Hurditch E, Chan F, Carborn H, Foot H, Bagshaw J, Hockridge J, Sidebottom J, Lee JH, Birchall K, Turner K, Haslam L, Holt L, Milner L, Begum M, Marshall M, Steele N, Tinker N, Ravencroft P, Butcher R, Misra S, Walker S, Coburn Z, Fairman A, Ford A, Holbourn A, Howell A, Lawrie A, Lye A, Mbuyisa A, Zawia A, Holroyd-Hind B, Thamu B, Clark C, Jarman C, Norman C, Roddis C, Foote D, Lee E, Ilyas F, Stephens G, Newell H, Turton H, Macharia I, Wilson I, Cole J, McNeill J, Meiring J, Rodger J, Watson J, Chapman K, Harrington K, Chetham L, Hesselden L, Nwafor L, Dixon M, Plowright M, Wade P, Gregory R, Lenagh R, Stimpson R, Megson S, Newman T, Cheng Y, Goodwin C, Heeley C, Sissons D, Sowter D, Gregory H, Wynter I, Hutchinson J, Kirk J, Bennett K, Slack K, Allsop L, Holloway L, Flynn M, Gill M, Greatorex M, Holmes M, Buckley P, Shelton S, Turner S, Sewell TA, Whitworth V, Lovegrove W, Tomlinson J, Warburton L, Painter S, Vickers C, Redwood D, Tilley J, Palmer S, Wainwright T, Breen G, Hotopf M, Dunleavy A, Teixeira J, Ali M, Mencias M, Msimanga N, Siddique S, Samakomva T, Tavoukjian V, Forton D, Ahmed R, Cook A, Thaivalappil F, Connor L, Rees T, McNarry M, Williams N, McCormick J, McIntosh J, Vere J, Coulding M, Kilroy S, Turner V, Butt AT, Savill H, Fraile E, Ugoji J, Landers G, Lota H, Portukhay S, Nasseri M, Daniels A, Hormis A, Ingham J, Zeidan L, Osborne L, Chablani M, Banerjee A, David A, Pakzad A, Rangelov B, Williams B, Denneny E, Willoughby J, Xu M, Mehta P, Batterham R, Bell R, Aslani S, Lilaonitkul W, Checkley A, Bang D, Basire D, Lomas D, Wall E, Plant H, Roy K, Heightman M, Lipman M, Merida Morillas M, Ahwireng N, Chambers RC, Jastrub R, Logan S, Hillman T, Botkai A, Casey A, Neal A, Newton-Cox A, Cooper B, Atkin C, McGee C, Welch C, Wilson D, Sapey E, Qureshi H, Hazeldine J, Lord JM, Nyaboko J, Short J, Stockley J, Dasgin J, Draxlbauer K, Isaacs K, Mcgee K, Yip KP, Ratcliffe L, Bates M, Ventura M, Ahmad Haider N, Gautam N, Baggott R, Holden S, Madathil S, Walder S, Yasmin S, Hiwot T, Jackson T, Soulsby T, Kamwa V, Peterkin Z, Suleiman Z, Chaudhuri N, Wheeler H, Djukanovic R, Samuel R, Sass T, Wallis T, Marshall B, Childs C, Marouzet E, Harvey M, Fletcher S, Dickens C, Beckett P, Nanda U, Daynes E, Charalambou A, Yousuf AJ, Lea A, Prickett A, Gooptu B, Hargadon B, Bourne C, Christie C, Edwardson C, Lee D, Baldry E, Stringer E, Woodhead F, Mills G, Arnold H, Aung H, Qureshi IN, Finch J, Skeemer J, Hadley K, Khunti K, Carr L, Ingram L, Aljaroof M, Bakali M, Bakau M, Baldwin M, Bourne M, Pareek M, Soares M, Tobin M, Armstrong N, Brunskill N, Goodman N, Cairns P, Haldar P, McCourt P, Dowling R, Russell R, Diver S, Edwards S, Glover S, Parker S, Siddiqui S, Ward TJC, Mcnally T, Thornton T, Yates T, Ibrahim W, Monteiro W, Thickett D, Wilkinson D, Broome M, McArdle P, Upthegrove R, Wraith D, Langenberg C, Summers C, Bullmore E, Heeney JL, Schwaeble W, Sudlow CL, Adeloye D, Newby DE, Rudan I, Shankar-Hari M, Thorpe M, Pius R, Walmsley S, McGovern A, Ballard C, Allan L, Dennis J, Cavanagh J, Petrie J, O'Donnell K, Spears M, Sattar N, MacDonald S, Guthrie E, Henderson M, Guillen Guio B, Zhao B, Lawson C, Overton C, Taylor C, Tong C, Mukaetova-Ladinska E, Turner E, Pearl JE, Sargant J, Wormleighton J, Bingham M, Sharma M, Steiner M, Samani N, Novotny P, Free R, Allen RJ, Finney S, Terry S, Brugha T, Plekhanova T, McArdle A, Vinson B, Spencer LG, Reynolds W, Ashworth M, Deakin B, Chinoy H, Abel K, Harvie M, Stanel S, Rostron A, Coleman C, 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Francis C, Francis R, Hughes RA, Hughes J, Hughes AD, Thompson T, Kelly S, Smith D, Smith N, Smith A, Smith J, Smith L, Smith S, Evans T, Evans RI, Evans D, Evans R, Evans H, Evans J. Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study. Lancet Respir Med 2023; 11:1003-1019. [PMID: 37748493 PMCID: PMC7615263 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(23)00262-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/27/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. METHODS In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. FINDINGS Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. INTERPRETATION After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification. FUNDING UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.
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Evans RA, Leavy OC, Richardson M, Elneima O, McAuley HJC, Shikotra A, Singapuri A, Sereno M, Saunders RM, Harris VC, Houchen-Wolloff L, Aul R, Beirne P, Bolton CE, Brown JS, Choudhury G, Diar-Bakerly N, Easom N, Echevarria C, Fuld J, Hart N, Hurst J, Jones MG, Parekh D, Pfeffer P, Rahman NM, Rowland-Jones SL, Shah AM, Wootton DG, Chalder T, Davies MJ, De Soyza A, Geddes JR, Greenhalf W, Greening NJ, Heaney LG, Heller S, Howard LS, Jacob J, Jenkins RG, Lord JM, Man WDC, McCann GP, Neubauer S, Openshaw PJM, Porter JC, Rowland MJ, Scott JT, Semple MG, Singh SJ, Thomas DC, Toshner M, Lewis KE, Thwaites RS, Briggs A, Docherty AB, Kerr S, Lone NI, Quint J, Sheikh A, Thorpe M, Zheng B, Chalmers JD, Ho LP, Horsley A, Marks M, Poinasamy K, Raman B, Harrison EM, Wain LV, Brightling CE, Abel K, Adamali H, Adeloye D, Adeyemi O, Adrego R, Aguilar Jimenez LA, Ahmad S, Ahmad Haider N, Ahmed R, Ahwireng N, Ainsworth M, Al-Sheklly B, Alamoudi A, Ali M, Aljaroof M, All AM, Allan L, Allen RJ, Allerton L, 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N, Major E, Malein F, Malim M, Mallison G, Mandal S, Mangion K, Manisty C, Manley R, March K, Marciniak S, Marino P, Mariveles M, Marouzet E, Marsh S, Marshall B, Marshall M, Martin J, Martineau A, Martinez LM, Maskell N, Matila D, Matimba-Mupaya W, Matthews L, Mbuyisa A, McAdoo S, Weir McCall J, McAllister-Williams H, McArdle A, McArdle P, McAulay D, McCormick J, McCormick W, McCourt P, McGarvey L, McGee C, Mcgee K, McGinness J, McGlynn K, McGovern A, McGuinness H, McInnes IB, McIntosh J, McIvor E, McIvor K, McLeavey L, McMahon A, McMahon MJ, McMorrow L, Mcnally T, McNarry M, McNeill J, McQueen A, McShane H, Mears C, Megson C, Megson S, Mehta P, Meiring J, Melling L, Mencias M, Menzies D, Merida Morillas M, Michael A, Milligan L, Miller C, Mills C, Mills NL, Milner L, Misra S, Mitchell J, Mohamed A, Mohamed N, Mohammed S, Molyneaux PL, Monteiro W, Moriera S, Morley A, Morrison L, Morriss R, Morrow A, Moss AJ, Moss P, Motohashi K, Msimanga N, Mukaetova-Ladinska E, Munawar U, Murira J, Nanda U, Nassa H, Nasseri M, Neal A, Needham R, Neill P, Newell H, Newman T, Newton-Cox A, Nicholson T, Nicoll D, Nolan CM, Noonan MJ, Norman C, Novotny P, Nunag J, Nwafor L, Nwanguma U, Nyaboko J, O'Donnell K, O'Brien C, O'Brien L, O'Regan D, Odell N, Ogg G, Olaosebikan O, Oliver C, Omar Z, Orriss-Dib L, Osborne L, Osbourne R, Ostermann M, Overton C, Owen J, Oxton J, Pack J, Pacpaco E, Paddick S, Painter S, Pakzad A, Palmer S, Papineni P, Paques K, Paradowski K, Pareek M, Parfrey H, Pariante C, Parker S, Parkes M, Parmar J, Patale S, Patel B, Patel M, Patel S, Pattenadk D, Pavlides M, Payne S, Pearce L, Pearl JE, Peckham D, Pendlebury J, Peng Y, Pennington C, Peralta I, Perkins E, Peterkin Z, Peto T, Petousi N, Petrie J, Phipps J, Pimm J, Piper Hanley K, Pius R, Plant H, Plein S, Plekhanova T, Plowright M, Polgar O, Poll L, Porter J, Portukhay S, Powell N, Prabhu A, Pratt J, Price A, Price C, Price C, Price D, Price L, Price L, Prickett A, Propescu J, Pugmire S, Quaid S, Quigley J, Qureshi H, Qureshi IN, Radhakrishnan K, Ralser M, Ramos A, Ramos H, Rangeley J, Rangelov B, Ratcliffe L, Ravencroft P, Reddington A, Reddy R, Redfearn H, Redwood D, Reed A, Rees M, Rees T, Regan K, Reynolds W, Ribeiro C, Richards A, Richardson E, Rivera-Ortega P, Roberts K, Robertson E, Robinson E, Robinson L, Roche L, Roddis C, Rodger J, Ross A, Ross G, Rossdale J, Rostron A, Rowe A, Rowland A, Rowland J, Roy K, Roy M, Rudan I, Russell R, Russell E, Saalmink G, Sabit R, Sage EK, Samakomva T, Samani N, Sampson C, Samuel K, Samuel R, Sanderson A, Sapey E, Saralaya D, Sargant J, Sarginson C, Sass T, Sattar N, Saunders K, Saunders P, Saunders LC, Savill H, Saxon W, Sayer A, Schronce J, Schwaeble W, Scott K, Selby N, Sewell TA, Shah K, Shah P, Shankar-Hari M, Sharma M, Sharpe C, Sharpe M, Shashaa S, Shaw A, Shaw K, Shaw V, Shelton S, Shenton L, Shevket K, Short J, Siddique S, Siddiqui S, Sidebottom J, Sigfrid L, Simons G, Simpson J, Simpson N, Singh C, Singh S, Sissons D, Skeemer J, Slack K, Smith A, Smith D, Smith S, Smith J, Smith L, Soares M, Solano TS, Solly R, Solstice AR, Soulsby T, Southern D, Sowter D, Spears M, Spencer LG, Speranza F, Stadon L, Stanel S, Steele N, Steiner M, Stensel D, Stephens G, Stephenson L, Stern M, Stewart I, Stimpson R, Stockdale S, Stockley J, Stoker W, Stone R, Storrar W, Storrie A, Storton K, Stringer E, Strong-Sheldrake S, Stroud N, Subbe C, Sudlow CL, Suleiman Z, Summers C, Summersgill C, Sutherland D, Sykes DL, Sykes R, Talbot N, Tan AL, Tarusan L, Tavoukjian V, Taylor A, Taylor C, Taylor J, Te A, Tedd H, Tee CJ, Teixeira J, Tench H, Terry S, Thackray-Nocera S, Thaivalappil F, Thamu B, Thickett D, Thomas C, Thomas S, Thomas AK, Thomas-Woods T, Thompson T, Thompson AAR, Thornton T, Tilley J, Tinker N, Tiongson GF, Tobin M, Tomlinson J, Tong C, Touyz R, Tripp KA, Tunnicliffe E, Turnbull A, Turner E, Turner S, Turner V, Turner K, Turney S, Turtle L, Turton H, Ugoji J, Ugwuoke R, Upthegrove R, Valabhji J, Ventura M, Vere J, Vickers C, Vinson B, Wade E, Wade P, Wainwright T, Wajero LO, Walder S, Walker S, Walker S, Wall E, Wallis T, Walmsley S, Walsh JA, Walsh S, Warburton L, Ward TJC, Warwick K, Wassall H, Waterson S, Watson E, Watson L, Watson J, Welch C, Welch H, Welsh B, Wessely S, West S, Weston H, Wheeler H, White S, Whitehead V, Whitney J, Whittaker S, Whittam B, Whitworth V, Wight A, Wild J, Wilkins M, Wilkinson D, Williams N, Williams N, Williams J, Williams-Howard SA, Willicombe M, Willis G, Willoughby J, Wilson A, Wilson D, Wilson I, Window N, Witham M, Wolf-Roberts R, Wood C, Woodhead F, Woods J, Wormleighton J, Worsley J, Wraith D, Wrey Brown C, Wright C, Wright L, Wright S, Wyles J, Wynter I, Xu M, Yasmin N, Yasmin S, Yates T, Yip KP, Young B, Young S, Young A, Yousuf AJ, Zawia A, Zeidan L, Zhao B, Zongo O. Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study. Lancet Respir Med 2022; 10:761-775. [PMID: 35472304 PMCID: PMC9034855 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00127-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 144] [Impact Index Per Article: 72.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2022] [Revised: 03/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge. METHODS The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing. FINDINGS 2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. INTERPRETATION The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials. FUNDING UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.
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Whitehead PG, Jin L, Bussi G, Voepel HE, Darby SE, Vasilopoulos G, Manley R, Rodda H, Hutton C, Hackney C, Tri VPD, Hung NN. Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta. Sci Total Environ 2019; 673:218-229. [PMID: 30991313 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2019] [Revised: 03/19/2019] [Accepted: 03/20/2019] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3-4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- P G Whitehead
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
| | - L Jin
- Geology Department, State University of New York College at Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, USA
| | - G Bussi
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - H E Voepel
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - S E Darby
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - G Vasilopoulos
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK; Energy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Cottingham Road, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
| | - R Manley
- Water Resource Associates, Wallingford, PO Box 838, Oxon OX10 9XA, UK
| | - H Rodda
- Water Resource Associates, Wallingford, PO Box 838, Oxon OX10 9XA, UK
| | - C Hutton
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - C Hackney
- Energy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Cottingham Road, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
| | - Van Pham Dang Tri
- Department of Water Resources, College of Environment and Natural Resources, Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University, Viet Nam
| | - N N Hung
- Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), Research Centre for Rural Infrastructure Engineering Development, 658th Vo Van Kiet avenue Dist.5 HCMC, Viet Nam
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Zafonte SJ, Rafkin L, Sosenko JM, Kenyon NS, Santiago I, Krischer JP, Bundy B, Abbondondolo M, Dixit S, Pasha M, King K, Adcock H, Atterberry L, Fox K, Englert N, Mauras J, Permuy K, Sikes T, Adams T, Berhe B, Guendling L, McLennan L, Paganessi C, Murphy M, Draznin M, Kamboj S, Sheppard V, Lewis L, Coates W, Amado D, Moore G, Babar J, Bedard D, Brenson-Hughes J, Cernich M, Clements R, Duprau S, Goodman L, Hester L, Huerta-Saenz A, Asif I, Karmazin T, Letjen S, Raman D, Morin W, Bestermann E, Morawski J, White A, Brockmyer R, Bays S, Campbell A, Boonstra M, Stapleton N, Stone A, Donoho H, Everett H, Hensley M, Johnson C, Marshall N, Skirvin P, Taylor R, Williams L, Burroughs C, Ray C, Wolverton D, Nickels C, Dothard P, Speiser M, Pellizzari L, Bokor K, Izuora S, Abdelnour P, Cummings S, Cuthbertson D, Paynor M, Leahy M, Riedl S, Shockley R, Saad T, Briones S, Casella C, Herz K, Walsh J, Greening F, Deemer M, Hay S, Hunt N, Sikotra L, Simons D, Karounos R, Oremus L, Dye L, Myers D, Ballard W, Miers R, Eberhard C, Sparks K, Thraikill K, Edwards J, Fowlkes S, Kemp A, Morales L, Holland L, Johnson P, Paul A, Ghatak K, Fiske S, Phelen H, Leyland T, Henderson D, Brenner E, Oppenheimer I, Mamkin C, Moniz C, Clarson M, Lovell A, Peters V, Ford J, Ruelas D, Borut D, Burt M, Jordan S, Castilla P, Flores M, Ruiz L, Hanson J, Green-Blair R, Sheridan K, Garmeson J, Wintergerst G, Pierce A, Omoruyi M, Foster S, Kingery A, Lunsford I, Cervantes T, Parker P, Price J, Urben I, Guillette H, Doughty H, Haydock V, Parker P, Bergman S, Duncum C, Rodda A, Perelman R, Calendo C, Barrera E, Arce-Nunez Y, Geyer S, Martinez M, De la Portilla I, Cardenas L, Garrido M, Villar R, Lorini E, Calandra G, D’Annuzio K, Perri N, Minuto C, Hays B, Rebora R, Callegari O, Ali J, Kramer B, Auble S, Cabrera P, Donohoue R, Fiallo-Scharer M, Hessner P, Wolfgram A, Henderson C, Kansra N, Bettin R, McCuller A, Miller S, Accacha J, Corrigan E, Fiore R, Levine T, Mahoney C, Polychronakos V, Henry M, Gagne H, Starkman M, Fox D, Chin F, Melchionne L, Silverman I, Marshall L, Cerracchio J, Cruz A, Viswanathan J, Heyman K, Wilson S, Chalew S, Valley S, Layburn A, Lala P, Clesi M, Genet G, Uwaifo A, Charron T, Allerton W, Hsiao B, Cefalu L, Melendez-Ramirez R, Richards C, Alleyn E, Gustafson M, Lizanna J, Wahlen S, Aleiwe M, Hansen H, Wahlen C, Karges C, Levy A, Bonaccorso R, Rapaport Y, Tomer D, Chia M, Goldis L, Iazzetti M, Klein C, Levister L, Waldman E, Keaton N, Wallach M, Regelmann Z, Antal M, Aranda C, Reynholds A, Vinik P, Barlow M, Bourcier M, Nevoret J, Couper S, Kinderman A, Beresford N, Thalagne H, Roper J, Gibbons J, Hill S, Balleaut C, Brennan J, Ellis-Gage L, Fear T, Gray L, Law P, Jones C, McNerney L, Pointer N, Price K, Few D, Tomlinson N, Leech D, Wake C, Owens M, Burns J, Leinbach A, Wotherspoon A, Murray K, Short G, Curry S, Kelsey J, Lawson J, Porter S, Stevens E, Thomson S, Winship L, Liu S, Wynn E, Wiltshire J, Krebs P, Cresswell H, Faherty C, Ross L, Denvir J, Drew T, Randell P, Mansell S, Lloyd J, Bell S, Butler Y, Hooton H, Navarra A, Roper G, Babington L, Crate H, Cripps A, Ledlie C, Moulds R, Malloy J, Norton B, Petrova O, Silkstone C, Smith K, Ghai M, Murray V, Viswanathan M, Henegan O, Kawadry J, Olson L, Maddox K, Patterson T, Ahmad B, Flores D, Domek S, Domek K, Copeland M, George J, Less T, Davis M, Short A, Martin J, Dwarakanathan P, O’Donnell B, Boerner L, Larson M, Phillips M, Rendell K, Larson C, Smith K, Zebrowski L, Kuechenmeister M, Miller J, Thevarayapillai M, Daniels H, Speer N, Forghani R, Quintana C, Reh A, Bhangoo P, Desrosiers L, Ireland T, Misla C, Milliot E, Torres S, Wells J, Villar M, Yu D, Berry D, Cook J, Soder A, Powell M, Ng M, Morrison Z, Moore M, Haslam M, Lawson B, Bradley J, Courtney C, Richardson C, Watson E, Keely D, DeCurtis M, Vaccarcello-Cruz Z, Torres K, Muller S, Sandberg H, Hsiang B, Joy D, McCormick A, Powell H, Jones J, Bell S, Hargadon S, Hudson M, Kummer S, Nguyen T, Sauder E, Sutton K, Gensel R, Aguirre-Castaneda V, Benavides, Lopez D, Hemp S, Allen J, Stear E, Davis T, O’Donnell R, Jones A, Roberts J, Dart N, Paramalingam L, Levitt Katz N, Chaudhary K, Murphy S, Willi B, Schwartzman C, Kapadia D, Roberts A, Larson D, McClellan G, Shaibai L, Kelley G, Villa C, Kelley R, Diamond M, Kabbani T, Dajani F, Hoekstra M, Sadler K, Magorno J, Holst V, Chauhan N, Wilson P, Bononi M, Sperl A, Millward M, Eaton L, Dean J, Olshan H, Stavros T, Renna C, Milliard, Brodksy L, Bacon J, Quintos L, Topor S, Bialo B, Bancroft A, Soto W, Lagarde H, Tamura R, Lockemer T, Vanderploeg M, Ibrahim M, Huie V, Sanchez R, Edelen R, Marchiando J, Palmer T, Repas M, Wasson P, Wood K, Auker J, Culbertson T, Kieffer D, Voorhees T, Borgwardt L, DeRaad K, Eckert E, Isaacson H, Kuhn A, Carroll M, Xu P, Schubert G, Francis S, Hagan T, Le M, Penn E, Wickham C, Leyva K, Rivera J, Padilla I, Rodriguez N, Young K, Jospe J, Czyzyk B, Johnson U, Nadgir N, Marlen G, Prakasam C, Rieger N, Glaser E, Heiser B, Harris C, Alies P, Foster H, Slater K, Wheeler D, Donaldson M, Murray D, Hale R, Tragus D, Word J, Lynch L, Pankratz W, Badias F, Rogers R, Newfield S, Holland M, Hashiguchi M, Gottschalk A, Philis-Tsimikas R, Rosal S, Franklin S, Guardado N, Bohannon M, Baker A, Garcia T, Aguinaldo J, Phan V, Barraza D, Cohen J, Pinsker U, Khan J, Wiley L, Jovanovic P, Misra M, Bassi M, Wright D, Cohen K, Huang M, Skiles S, Maxcy C, Pihoker K, Cochrane J, Fosse S, Kearns M, Klingsheim N, Beam C, Wright L, Viles H, Smith S, Heller M, Cunningham A, Daniels L, Zeiden J, Field R, Walker K, Griffin L, Boulware D, Bartholow C, Erickson J, Howard B, Krabbenhoft C, Sandman A, Vanveldhuizen J, Wurlger A, Zimmerman K, Hanisch L, Davis-Keppen A, Bounmananh L, Cotterill J, Kirby M, Harris A, Schmidt C, Kishiyama C, Flores J, Milton W, Martin C, Whysham A, Yerka T, Bream S, Freels J, Hassing J, Webster R, Green P, Carter J, Galloway D, Hoelzer S, Roberts S, Said P, Sullivan H, Freeman D, Allen E, Reiter E, Feinberg C, 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Cullen K, Johnson P, Parrimon Y, Hampton M, McCarrell C, Curtis E, Paul, Zambrano Y, Paulus K, Pilger J, Ramiro J, Luvon Ritzie AQ, Sharma A, Shor A, Song X, Terry A, Weinberger J, Wootten M, Lachin JM, Foulkes M, Harding P, Krause-Steinrauf H, McDonough S, McGee PF, Owens Hess K, Phoebus D, Quinlan S, Raiden E, Batts E, Buddy C, Kirpatrick K, Ramey M, Shultz A, Webb C, Romesco M, Fradkin J, Leschek E, Spain L, Savage P, Aas S, Blumberg E, Beck G, Brillon D, Gubitosi-Klug R, Laffel L, Vigersky R, Wallace D, Braun J, Lernmark A, Lo B, Mitchell H, Naji A, Nerup J, Orchard T, Steffes M, Tsiatis A, Veatch R, Zinman B, Loechelt B, Baden L, Green M, Weinberg A, Marcovina S, Palmer JP, Weinberg A, Yu L, Babu S, Winter W, Eisenbarth GS, Bingley P, Clynes R, DiMeglio L, Eisenbarth G, Hays B, Leschek E, Marks J, Matheson D, Rafkin L, Rodriguez H, Spain L, Wilson D, Redondo M, Gomez D, McDonald A, Pena S, Pietropaolo M, Shippy K, Batts E, Brown T, Buckner J, Dove A, Hammond M, Hefty D, Klein J, Kuhns K, Letlau M, Lord S, McCulloch-Olson M, Miller L, Nepom G, Odegard J, Ramey M, Sachter E, St. Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Pat Gallagher M, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Pugliese A, Sanders-Branca N, Ray Arce LA, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Peterson Eck S, Finney L, Albright Fischer T, Martin A, Jacqueline Muzamhindo C, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Jo Ricci M, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Teresa Muscato M, Viscardi M, Bingley P, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del A, Rio A, Logan H, Collier C, Rishton G, Whalley A, Ali S, Ramtoola T, Quattrin L, Mastrandea A, House M, Ecker C, Huang C, Gougeon J, Ho D, Pacuad D, Dunger J, May C, O’Brien C, Acerini B, Salgin A, Thankamony R, Williams J, Buse G, Fuller M, Duclos J, Tricome H, Brown D, Pittard D, Bowlby A, Blue T, Headley S, Bendre K, Lewis K, Sutphin C, Soloranzo J, Puskaric H, Madison M, Rincon M, Carlucci R, Shridharani B, Rusk E, Tessman D, Huffman H, Abrams B, Biederman M, Jones V, Leathers W, Brickman P, Petrie D, Zimmerman J, Howard L, Miller R, Alemzadeh D, Mihailescu R, Melgozza-Walker N, Abdulla C, Boucher-Berry D, Ize-Ludlow R, Levy C, Swenson, Brousell N, Crimmins D, Edler T, Weis C, Schultz D, Rogers D, Latham C, Mawhorter C, Switzer W, Spencer P, Konstantnopoulus S, Broder J, Klein L, Knight L, Szadek G, Welnick B, Thompson R, Hoffman A, Revell J, Cherko K, Carter E, Gilson J, Haines G, Arthur B, Bowen W, Zipf P, Graves R, Lozano D, Seiple K, Spicer A, Chang J, Fregosi J, Harbinson C, Paulson S, Stalters P, Wright D, Zlock A, Freeth J, Victory H, Maheshwari A, Maheshwari T, Holmstrom J, Bueno R, Arguello J, Ahern L, Noreika V, Watson S, Hourse P, Breyer C, Kissel Y, Nicholson M, Pfeifer S, Almazan J, Bajaj M, Quinn K, Funk J, McCance E, Moreno R, Veintimilla A, Wells J, Cook S, Trunnel J, Henske S, Desai K, Frizelis F, Khan R, Sjoberg K, Allen P, Manning G, Hendry B, Taylor S, Jones W, Strader M, Bencomo T, Bailey L, Bedolla C, Roldan C, Moudiotis B, Vaidya C, Anning S, Bunce S, Estcourt E, Folland E, Gordon C, Harrill J, Ireland J, Piper L, Scaife K, Sutton S, Wilkins M, Costelloe J, Palmer L, Casas C, Miller M, Burgard C, Erickson J, Hallanger-Johnson P, Clark W, Taylor A, Lafferty S, Gillett C, Nolan M, Pathak L, Sondrol T, Hjelle S, Hafner J, Kotrba R, Hendrickson A, Cemeroglu T, Symington M, Daniel Y, Appiagyei-Dankah D, Postellon M, Racine L, Kleis K, Barnes S, Godwin H, McCullough K, Shaheen G, Buck L, Noel M, Warren S, Weber S, Parker I, Gillespie B, Nelson C, Frost J, Amrhein E, Moreland A, Hayes J, Peggram J, Aisenberg M, Riordan J, Zasa E, Cummings K, Scott T, Pinto A, Mokashi K, McAssey E, Helden P, Hammond L, Dinning S, Rahman S, Ray C, Dimicri S, Guppy H, Nielsen C, Vogel C, Ariza L, Morales Y, Chang R, Gabbay L, Ambrocio L, Manley R, Nemery W, Charlton P, Smith L, Kerr B, Steindel-Kopp M, Alamaguer D, Liljenquist G, Browning T, Coughenour M, Sulk E, Tsalikan M, Tansey J, Cabbage N. Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes. Diabetes Care 2019; 42:192-199. [PMID: 30061316 PMCID: PMC6341285 DOI: 10.2337/dc18-0288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2018] [Accepted: 06/28/2018] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years. RESULTS At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects. CONCLUSIONS Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taylor M. Triolo
- Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO
| | - Alexandra Fouts
- Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO
| | - Laura Pyle
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO
| | - Liping Yu
- Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO
| | - Peter A. Gottlieb
- Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO
| | - Andrea K. Steck
- Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO
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Sender J, Bradford S, Watson D, Lipscombe S, Rees T, Manley R, Dowson A. Setting up a Specialist Headache Clinic in Primary Care: General Practitioners with a Special Interest (GPwSI) in Headache. Headache 2004. [DOI: 10.1185/174234304125003786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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Murphy MF, Manley R, Roberts D. Neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia. Haematologica 1999; 84 Suppl EHA-4:110-4. [PMID: 10907486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- M F Murphy
- National Blood Service, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK.
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Manley R, Monteath J, Patton WN. Co-incidental presentation of IgA lambda multiple myeloma and pleural involvement with IgM kappa non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Clin Lab Haematol 1999; 21:61-3. [PMID: 10197266 DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2257.1999.00181.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Pleural effusions occur in approximately 6% of patients with myeloma. The aetiology is multifactorial and effusions due to pleural myelomatous involvement are rare, occurring in < 1% of cases. We report the case of a 68-year-old lady who presented with IgA myeloma and a concurrent pleural effusion due to a second IgM kappa producing B cell neoplasm. The former responded but the latter was resistant to standard myeloma therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Manley
- Department of Haematology, Christchurch Hospital, New Zealand
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8
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Manley R, Cochrane J, McDonald M, Rigby S, Moore A, Kirk A, Clarke S, Crossen PE, Morris CM, Patton WN. Clonally unrelated BCR-ABL-negative acute myeloblastic leukemia masquerading as blast crisis after busulphan and interferon therapy for BCR-ABL-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. Leukemia 1999; 13:126-9. [PMID: 10049047 DOI: 10.1038/sj.leu.2401220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
We report a patient with Philadelphia (Ph)-positive, BCR-ABL rearrangement positive, chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) with a prolonged chronic phase of 24 years who was first prescribed alpha-2 interferon 22 years after initial diagnosis. This therapy was tolerated poorly on account of thrombocytopenia, but an eventual major cytogenetic response was followed soon afterwards by transformation to terminal acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Cytogenetic studies indicated that the transformed myeloblasts were karyotypically normal and Ph negative. Although polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of total leukemic mRNA remained BCR-ABL positive, other molecular studies, including Southern blotting and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) analyses, showed that myeloblasts were BCR-ABL rearrangement negative. PCR-based clonality studies using an X-chromosome-linked restriction fragment polymorphism within the phosphoglycerate kinase gene (PGK1) further showed that the Ph-negative blast cells had a different clonal origin from the Ph-positive clone of chronic phase. We suggest that cases of underlying Ph-negative leukemic transformation in Ph-positive CML warrant further study and should be considered for trial of intensive remission induction therapy as appropriate for acute leukemia.
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MESH Headings
- Acute Disease
- Adult
- Blast Crisis/diagnosis
- Bone Marrow/pathology
- Busulfan/therapeutic use
- Diagnosis, Differential
- Female
- Fusion Proteins, bcr-abl/genetics
- Gene Rearrangement
- Humans
- In Situ Hybridization, Fluorescence
- Interferon-alpha/therapeutic use
- Leukemia, Myelogenous, Chronic, BCR-ABL Positive/blood
- Leukemia, Myelogenous, Chronic, BCR-ABL Positive/genetics
- Leukemia, Myelogenous, Chronic, BCR-ABL Positive/pathology
- Leukemia, Myelogenous, Chronic, BCR-ABL Positive/therapy
- Phosphoglycerate Kinase/genetics
- Polymerase Chain Reaction
- Polymorphism, Restriction Fragment Length
- Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
- X Chromosome
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Affiliation(s)
- R Manley
- Department of Hematology, Canterbury Health Laboratories, Christchurch Hospital, New Zealand
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Abstract
Structural chromosomal abnormalities are common in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), and complex abnormalities are known to confer a poor prognosis. Polyploidy is rare. We report a patient with MDS in whom 8/15 cells were 77,XYY; 2/15 were 83,XYY, and 5/15 were diploid (46,XY). He experienced rapid evolution of disease, transforming to terminal acute leukemia.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Manley
- Department of Haematology, Canterbury Health Laboratories, Christchurch, New Zealand
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10
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Manley R, Murphy MF. Thrombocytopenia-Platelet Support or Growth Factors? Hematology 1998; 3:469-82. [PMID: 27420334 DOI: 10.1080/10245332.1998.11746421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The prevention and treatment of hemorrhage in patients with severe thrombocytopenia following cytotoxic chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy remain important issues in the supportive care of these patients. Platelet transfusions have been available for this purpose for over 30 years, and there have been recent initiatives to refine the way in which they are used and to improve their safety. An alternative to platelet transfusions is the enhancement of platelet recovery through the use of hemopoietic growth factors, and the recent identification of thrombopoietin and its potential for clinical use are exciting developments. Further work is needed to ensure its safety, and to define the appropriate indications for its use. Another alternative to platelet transfusions is the use of platelet substitutes, and a number of products are being developed. The clinical use of hemopoietic growth factors and platelet substitutes raises the prospect of reducing the current high demand for platelet concentrates. However, it remains to be seen whether their potential will be fully realised, and platelet transfusions will continue to be needed for the forseeable future.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Manley
- a Department of Haematology , The John Radcliffe Hospital , Oxford , UK
| | - M F Murphy
- a Department of Haematology , The John Radcliffe Hospital , Oxford , UK.,b National Blood Service , The John Radcliffe Hospital , Oxford , UK
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Manley R, Fearnley D, Patton WN, Newhook C, Spearing RL, Hart DN. Syngeneic peripheral blood stem cell transplantation for severe aplastic anaemia. South Island Bone Marrow Transplant Team. Bone Marrow Transplant 1997; 20:1009-10. [PMID: 9422486 DOI: 10.1038/sj.bmt.1701009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
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12
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Manley R, Cuddeford JD. An assessment of the effectiveness of the revised FDA checklist. AANA J 1996; 64:277-82. [PMID: 9095699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
In 1978, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), developed a generic anesthesia equipment preuse checklist. The checklist was first released by the FDA in August 1986 and endorsed by the American Association of Nurse Anesthetists on October 18, 1986. The FDA checklist was revised in 1992 to improve the abilities of anesthesia providers to detect machine faults. In the present study, the investigators attempted to determine the effectiveness of the revised FDA checklist in detection of anesthesia machine faults as compared to providers' usual methods. Whereas no published study of preanesthesia safety inspection had been performed since the revision of the FDA checklist, the authors compared the detection abilities of anesthesia providers before and after inclusion of the revised FDA checklist. Twenty-two anesthesia providers were tested to compare the number of prearranged anesthesia machine faults that could be detected with (1) their usual checkout methods, and (2) with the revised FDA checklist. Data describing the subjects' fault detection abilities were analyzed using the t test for paired observation (P value < 0.05 considered significant). Statistical analysis revealed no significant difference (P = 0.479) when subjects used the FDA checklist and when they used their usual method. Use of the FDA machine checklist was no more effective than the provider's usual method in discovering machine faults. When using their normal method, 54.5% of providers did not discover more than 50% of programmed faults. Approximately 40.9% of providers who used the revised FDA checklist did not discover over 50% of programmed faults.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Manley
- Alaska Native Medical Center, Anchorage, USA
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14
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Manley R. Meeting of the International Continence Society. Geriatr Nurs Home Care 1986; 6:11. [PMID: 3643141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
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15
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Manley R. Geriatric care in South Africa. Geriatr Nurs (Lond) 1986; 6:31-3. [PMID: 3640728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
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16
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Manley R. 'It's never too late'. Geriatr Nurs (Lond) 1985; 5:31. [PMID: 3847387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
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Manley R. A revolution in wound care? Geriatr Nurs (Lond) 1985; 5:31-3. [PMID: 3846558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
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Manley R. Promoting continence: winning the fight against apathy. Community Outlook 1984:118. [PMID: 6561982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2023]
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Manley R. Aspects of incontinence. Focus on the elderly: containing the problem. Nurs Mirror 1984; 158:37-8. [PMID: 6560615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2023]
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Manley R. The dark side of the moon. Nurs Times 1984; 80:64. [PMID: 6560498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2023]
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Manley R. Dependence with dignity. Nurs Times 1983; 79:14. [PMID: 6558582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2023]
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Manley R. The challenge of nursing old people. Nurs Times 1983; 79:62-64. [PMID: 6555693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
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Manley R. Issues in nursing 8: Look back in anger. Nurs Mirror 1982; 155:38-40. [PMID: 6921713] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
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Manley R. Independence for district nurses? Nurs Mirror Midwives J 1970; 131:7. [PMID: 5204443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
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25
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Hart FD, Manley R, Burley D, Brown G. Penicillin V. West J Med 1956. [DOI: 10.1136/bmj.1.4969.749-b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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