Formal registration of visual impairment in people with diabetic retinopathy significantly underestimates the scale of the problem: a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary care eye hospital service in the UK

AIMS

To analyse the prevalence of visual impairment (VI), compare it to certification of visual impairment (CVI) and analyse VI associations in patients with diabetic retinopathy (DR).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study, which included 8007 patients with DR referred from the English diabetic eye screening programme to a tertiary referral eye hospital. Main outcome measure was VI, defined as vision in the best eye of <6/24. We conducted a multivariable logistic regression for VI as primary outcome of interest, controlling for age, sex, type of diabetes, baseline DR grade, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation (IMD).

RESULTS

Mean age was 64.5 (SD 13.6) years; 61% of patients were men; and 31% of South Asian ethnicity. There were 68 patients with CVI during the study period, and 84% (272/325) of patients with VI did not have CVI after a mean follow-up of 1.87 (SD ±0.86) years. Older age showed a positive association with VI (OR per decade rise 1.88, 95% CI 1.70 to 2.08; p=1.8×10-34). Men had a lower risk of VI (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.79, p=6.0×10-5), and less deprivation had a graded inverse association with VI (OR per IMD category increase 0.83, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.93, p value for linear trend 0.002).

CONCLUSION

The majority of people with vision impairment are not registered at the point of care, which could translate to underestimation of diabetes-related VI and all-cause VI at a national level if replicated at other centres. Further work is needed to explore rates of VI and uptake of registration.

Two-year recall for people with no diabetic retinopathy: a multi-ethnic population-based retrospective cohort study using real-world data to quantify the effect

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The English Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) offers people living with diabetes (PLD) annual screening. Less frequent screening has been advocated among PLD without diabetic retinopathy (DR), but evidence for each ethnic group is limited. We examined the potential effect of biennial versus annual screening on the detection of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) among PLD without DR from a large urban multi-ethnic English DESP.

METHODS

PLD in North-East London DESP (January 2012 to December 2021) with no DR on two prior consecutive screening visits with up to 8 years of follow-up were examined. Annual STDR and PDR incidence rates, overall and by ethnicity, were quantified. Delays in identification of STDR and PDR events had 2-year screening intervals been used were determined.

FINDINGS

Among 82 782 PLD (37% white, 36% South Asian, and 16% black people), there were 1788 incident STDR cases over mean (SD) 4.3 (2.4) years (STDR rate 0.51, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.55 per 100-person-years). STDR incidence rates per 100-person-years by ethnicity were 0.55 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.62) for South Asian, 0.34 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.40) for white, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.90) for black people. Biennial screening would have delayed diagnosis by 1 year for 56.3% (1007/1788) with STDR and 43.6% (45/103) with PDR. Standardised cumulative rates of delayed STDR per 100 000 persons for each ethnic group were 1904 (95% CI 1683 to 2154) for black people, 1276 (95% CI 1153 to 1412) for South Asian people, and 844 (95% CI 745 to 955) for white people.

INTERPRETATION

Biennial screening would have delayed detection of some STDR and PDR by 1 year, especially among those of black ethnic origin, leading to healthcare inequalities.

Ethnic disparities in progression rates for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in diabetic eye screening: a population-based retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The English Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) offers people living with diabetes (PLD) annual eye screening. We examined incidence and determinants of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in a sociodemographically diverse multi-ethnic population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

North East London DESP cohort data (January 2012 to December 2021) with 137 591 PLD with no retinopathy, or non-STDR at baseline in one/both eyes, were used to calculate STDR incidence rates by sociodemographic factors, diabetes type, and duration. HR from Cox models examined associations with STDR.

RESULTS

There were 16 388 incident STDR cases over a median of 5.4 years (IQR 2.8-8.2; STDR rate 2.214, 95% CI 2.214 to 2.215 per 100 person-years). People with no retinopathy at baseline had a lower risk of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) compared with those with non-STDR in one eye (HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.91 to 3.15, p<0.001) and both eyes (HR 7.88, 95% CI 7.59 to 8.18, p<0.001). Black and South Asian individuals had higher STDR hazards than white individuals (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.50 to 1.64 and HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.42, respectively). Additionally, every 5-year increase in age at inclusion was associated with an 8% reduction in STDR hazards (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnic disparities exist in a health system limited by capacity rather than patient economic circumstances. Diabetic retinopathy at first screen is a strong determinant of STDR development. By using basic demographic characteristics, screening programmes or clinical practices can stratify risk for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy development.

Automated analysis of vessel morphometry in retinal images from a Danish high street optician setting

PURPOSE

To evaluate the test performance of the QUARTZ (QUantitative Analysis of Retinal vessel Topology and siZe) software in detecting retinal features from retinal images captured by health care professionals in a Danish high street optician chain, compared with test performance from other large population studies (i.e., UK Biobank) where retinal images were captured by non-experts.

METHOD

The dataset FOREVERP (Finding Ophthalmic Risk and Evaluating the Value of Eye exams and their predictive Reliability, Pilot) contains retinal images obtained from a Danish high street optician chain. The QUARTZ algorithm utilizes both image processing and machine learning methods to determine retinal image quality, vessel segmentation, vessel width, vessel classification (arterioles or venules), and optic disc localization. Outcomes were evaluated by metrics including sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy and compared to human expert ground truths.

RESULTS

QUARTZ's performance was evaluated on a subset of 3,682 images from the FOREVERP database. 80.55% of the FOREVERP images were labelled as being of adequate quality compared to 71.53% of UK Biobank images, with a vessel segmentation sensitivity of 74.64% and specificity of 98.41% (FOREVERP) compared with a sensitivity of 69.12% and specificity of 98.88% (UK Biobank). The mean (± standard deviation) vessel width of the ground truth was 16.21 (4.73) pixels compared to that predicted by QUARTZ of 17.01 (4.49) pixels, resulting in a difference of -0.8 (1.96) pixels. The differences were stable across a range of vessels. The detection rate for optic disc localisation was similar for the two datasets.

CONCLUSION

QUARTZ showed high performance when evaluated on the FOREVERP dataset, and demonstrated robustness across datasets, providing validity to direct comparisons and pooling of retinal feature measures across data sources.

Nonpharmacological Interventions to Lengthen Sleep Duration in Healthy Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Adequate sleep duration is necessary for many aspects of child health, development, and well-being, yet sleep durations for children are declining, and effective strategies to increase sleep in healthy children remain to be elucidated.

Objective

To determine whether nonpharmaceutical interventions to improve sleep duration in healthy children are effective and to identify the key components of these interventions.

Data Sources

CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science Core collection, ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO trials databases were searched from inception to November 15, 2021.

Study Selection

Randomized clinical trials of interventions to improve sleep duration in healthy children were independently screened by 2 researchers. A total of 28 478 studies were identified.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data were processed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) reporting guideline. Random-effects meta-analytic models were used to estimate pooled effect sizes.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Difference in sleep duration, measured in minutes.

Results

A total of 13 539 child participants from 45 randomized clinical trials were included. Of these, 6897 (50.9%) were in the intervention group and 6642 (49.1%) in the control group, and the mean age ranged from 18 months to 19 years. Pooled results indicate that sleep interventions were associated with 10.5 minutes (95% CI, 5.6-15.4) longer nocturnal sleep duration. There was substantial variation between trials. Sources of variation that were not associated with the study effect size included age group, whether the population was identified as having a sleep problem or being at a socioeconomic disadvantage (eg, coming from a low-income family or area), method of assessment of sleep duration (objective vs subjective), location of intervention delivery (home vs school), whether interventions were delivered in person or used parental involvement, whether behavioral theory was used, environmental change, or had greater or lower intensity. Interventions that included earlier bedtimes were associated with a 47-minute sleep extension (95% CI, 18.9-75.0; 3 trials) compared with remaining studies (7.4 minutes; 95% CI, 2.9-11.8; 42 trials) (P = .006 for group difference). Trials of shorter duration (6 months or less) had larger effects.

Conclusions and Relevance

Interventions focused on earlier bedtimes may offer a simple, pragmatic, effective way to meaningfully increase sleep duration that could have important benefits for child health.

Retinal microvascular associations with cardiometabolic risk factors differ by diabetes status: results from the UK Biobank

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of the study was to examine the association of retinal vessel morphometry with BP, body composition and biochemistry, and to determine whether these associations differ by diabetes status.

METHODS

The UK Biobank ocular assessment included 68,550 participants aged 40-70 years who underwent non-mydriatic retinal photography, BP and body composition measurements, and haematological analysis. A fully automated image analysis program provided measurements of retinal vessel diameter and tortuosity. The associations between retinal vessel morphology and cardiometabolic risk factors by diabetes status were examined using multilevel linear regression, to provide absolute differences in vessel diameter and percentage differences in tortuosity (allowing for within-person clustering).

RESULTS

A total of 50,233 participants (a reduction from 68,550) were included in these analyses. Overall, those with diabetes had significantly more tortuous venules and wider arteriolar diameters compared with those without. Associations between venular tortuosity and cardiometabolic risk factors differed according to diabetes status (p interaction <0.01) for total fat mass index, HbA_1c, C-reactive protein, white cell count and granulocyte count. For example, a unit rise in white cell count was associated with a 0.18% increase (95% CI 0.05, 0.32%) in venular tortuosity for those without diabetes and a 1.48% increase (95% CI 0.90, 2.07%) among those with diabetes. For arteriolar diameter, significant interactions were evident for systolic BP, diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and LDL-cholesterol. For example, a 10 mmHg rise in systolic BP was associated with a -0.92 μm difference (95% CI -0.96 to -0.88 μm) in arteriolar diameter for those without diabetes, and a -0.58 μm difference (95% CI -0.76 to -0.41 μm) among those with diabetes. No interactions were observed for arteriolar tortuosity or venular diameters.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

We provide clear evidence of the modifying effect of diabetes on cardiometabolic risk factor associations with retinal microvascular architecture. These observations suggest the occurrence of preclinical disease processes, and may be a sign of impaired autoregulation due to hyperglycaemia, which has been suggested to play a pivotal role in the development of diabetes-related microvascular complications.

DATA AVAILABILITY

The data supporting the results reported here are available through the UK Biobank ( https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/enable-your-research/apply-for-access ).

Foveal Curvature and Its Associations in UK Biobank Participants

Purpose

To examine whether sociodemographic, and ocular factors relate to optical coherence tomography (OCT)-derived foveal curvature (FC) in healthy individuals.

Methods

We developed a deep learning model to quantify OCT-derived FC from 63,939 participants (age range, 39-70 years). Associations of FC with sociodemographic, and ocular factors were obtained using multilevel regression analysis (to allow for right and left eyes) adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, height (model 1), visual acuity, spherical equivalent, corneal astigmatism, center point retinal thickness (CPRT), intraocular pressure (model 2), deprivation (Townsend index), higher education, annual income, and birth order (model 3). Fovea curvature was modeled as a z-score.

Results

Males had on average steeper FC (0.077; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.077-0.078) than females (0.068; 95% CI 0.068-0.069). Compared with whites, non-white individuals showed flatter FC, particularly those of black ethnicity. In black males, -0.80 standard deviation (SD) change when compared with whites (95% CI -0.89, -0.71; P 5.2e10-68). In black females, -0.70 SD change when compared with whites (95% CI -0.77, -0.63; p 2.3e10-93). Ocular factors (visual acuity, refractive status, and CPRT) showed a graded inverse association with FC that persisted after adjustment. Macular curvature showed a positive association with FC. Income showed a linear trend increase in males (P for linear trend = 0.005).

Conclusions

We demonstrate marked differences in FC with ethnicity on the largest cohort studied for this purpose to date. Ocular factors showed a graded association with FC. Implementation of FC quantification in research and on the clinical setting can enhance the understanding of clinical macular phenotypes in health and disease.

Effect of ethnicity and other sociodemographic factors on attendance at diabetic eye screening: a 12-month retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association of sociodemographic characteristics with attendance at diabetic eye screening in a large ethnically diverse urban population.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Screening visits in the North East London Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (NELDESP).

PARTICIPANTS

84 449 people with diabetes aged 12 years or older registered in the NELDESP and scheduled for screening between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Attendance at diabetic eye screening appointments.

RESULTS

The mean age of people with diabetes was 60 years (SD 14.2 years), 53.4% were men, 41% South Asian, 29% White British and 17% Black; 83.4% attended screening. Black people with diabetes had similar levels of attendance compared with White British people. However, South Asian, Chinese and 'Any other Asian' background ethnicities showed greater odds of attendance compared with White British. When compared with their respective reference group, high levels of deprivation, younger age, longer duration of diabetes and worse visual acuity, were all associated with non-attendance. There was a higher likelihood of attendance per quintile improvement in deprivation (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.08), with increasing age (OR per decade, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.19), with better visual acuity (OR per Bailey-Lovie chart line 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.14) and with longer time of NELDESP registration (OR per year, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03).

CONCLUSION

Ethnic differences in diabetic eye screening uptake, though small, are evident. Despite preconceptions, a higher likelihood of screening attendance was observed among Asian ethnic groups when compared with the White ethnic group. Poorer socioeconomic profile was associated with higher likelihood of non-attendance for screening. Further work is needed to understand how to target individuals at risk of non-attendance and reduce inequalities.

Association of Childhood Fat Mass and Weight With Adult-Onset Type 2 Diabetes in Denmark

IMPORTANCE

Childhood obesity, defined by cutoffs based on the weight-based marker of body mass index, is associated with adult type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. Whether childhood fat mass (FM) is the driver of these associations is currently unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify and compare height-independent associations between childhood FM and weight with adult T2D risk in a historic Danish cohort.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based retrospective cohort study included schoolchildren from The Copenhagen School Health Records Register born between January 1930 and December 1985 with follow-up to adulthood through December 31, 2015. Analyses were based on 269 913 schoolchildren aged 10 years with 21 896 established adult T2D cases and 261 192 children aged 13 years with 21 530 established adult T2D cases for whom childhood height and weight measurements, as well as predicted FM, were available. Statistical analyses were performed between April 2019 to August 2020.

EXPOSURES

Childhood FM and weight at ages 10 and 13 years.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Diagnoses of T2D were established by linkage to national disease registers for adults aged at least 30 years. Sex-specific Cox regression quantified associations, adjusted for childhood height, which were evaluated within 5 birth-cohort groups. Group-specific results were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses accounting for heterogeneity across group-specific associations.

RESULTS

This cohort study analyzed data from 269 913 children aged 10 years (135 940 boys [50.4%]) with 21 896 established adult T2D cases and 261 192 children aged 13 years (131 025 boys [50.2%]) with 21 530 established adult T2D cases. After adjusting for childhood height, increases in FM and weight (per kilogram) among boys aged 10 years were associated with elevated T2D risks at age 50 years of 12% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% CI, 1.10-1.14) and 7% (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09), respectively, and among girls aged 10 years of 15% (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.13-1.17) and 10% (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.08-1.11), respectively. Among children aged 13 years, increases in FM and weight (per kilogram) were associated with increased T2D risks at age 50 years of 10% (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.09-1.10) and 6% (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.07) for boys, respectively, and of 10% (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.10-1.11) and 7% (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08), respectively, for girls.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that a 1-kg increase in childhood FM was more strongly associated with increased adult T2D risk than a 1-kg increase in weight, independent of childhood height. Information on FM, rather than weight-based measures, focuses on a modifiable component of weight that may be associated with adult T2D risk. These findings support the assessment of childhood FM in adiposity surveillance initiatives in an effort to reduce long-term T2D risk.

Evaluating an Intervention to Increase Cereal Fiber Intake in Children: A Randomized Controlled Feasibility Trial

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have shown that higher cereal fiber intake is associated with reduced type 2 diabetes risk. However, it remains uncertain whether this association is causal.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the feasibility of an intervention to increase cereal fiber intake in children using breakfast cereals.

METHODS

The study was a 2-arm parallel group randomized controlled trial in 9-10-y-old children, who received free supplies of high-fiber breakfast cereals (>3.5 g/portion) or low-fiber breakfast cereals (<1.0 g/portion) to eat daily for 1 mo with behavioral support to promote adherence. Children provided baseline and 1-mo fasting blood samples, physical measurements, and 24-h dietary recalls. The primary outcome was the group difference in change in plasma total alkylresorcinol (AR) concentration; secondary outcomes were group differences in nutrient intakes and adiposity indices. Analyses (complete case and multiple imputation) were conducted by regressing the final AR concentration on baseline AR in models adjusted for sex, ethnicity, age, and school (random effect).

RESULTS

Two-hundred seventy-two children were randomly assigned (137 receiving a low-fiber and 135 a high-fiber diet) and 193 (71%) provided fasting blood samples at baseline and follow-up. Among randomized participants, median (IQR) of baseline AR was 43.1 (24.6-85.5) nmol/L and of cereal fiber intake was 4.5 (2.7-6.4) g; 87% of participants reported consuming the cereal on most or all days. Compared with changes in the low-fiber group, the high-fiber group had greater increases in AR (40.7 nmol/L; 95% CI: 21.7, 59.8 nmol/L, P < 0.0001) and in reported cereal fiber intake (2.9g/d; 95% CI: 2.0, 3.7 g; P < 0.0001). There were no appreciable differences in other secondary outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a simple and acceptable nutritional intervention that increases markers of daily cereal fiber intake in children. This intervention could be used to test whether increases in cereal fiber intake in children might reduce insulin resistance. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN33260236.

Retinal Vasculometry Associations With Glaucoma: Findings From the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Eye Study

Purpose

To examine retinal vasculometry associations with different glaucomas in older British people.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Methods

A total of 8,623 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk Eye study participants were examined, who underwent retinal imaging, ocular biometry assessment, and clinical ascertainment of ocular hypertensive or glaucoma status (including glaucoma suspect [GS], high-tension open-angle glaucoma [HTG], and normal-tension glaucoma [NTG]). Automated measures of arteriolar and venular tortuosity, area, and width from retinal images were obtained. MainOutcomeMeasures: Associations between glaucoma and retinal vasculometry outcomes were analyzed using multilevel linear regression, adjusted for age, sex, height, axial length, intraocular and systemic blood pressure, and within-person clustering, to provide absolute differences in width and area, and percentage differences in vessel tortuosity. Presence or absence of within-person-between-eye differences in retinal vasculometry by diagnoses were examined.

Results

A total of 565,593 vessel segments from 5,947 participants (mean age 67.6 years, SD 7.6 years, 57% women) were included; numbers with HTG, NTG, and GS in at least 1 eye were 87, 82, and 439, respectively. Thinner arterioles (−3.2 μm; 95% confidence interval [CI] −4.4 μm, −1.9 μm) and venules (−2.7 μm; 95% CI −4.9 μm, −0.5 μm) were associated with HTG. Reduced venular area was associated with HTG (−0.2 mm²; 95% CI −0.3 mm², −0.1 mm²) and NTG (−0.2 mm²; 95% CI −0.3 mm², −0.0 mm²). Less tortuous retinal arterioles and venules were associated with all glaucomas, but only significantly for GS (−3.9%; 95% CI −7.7%, −0.1% and −4.8%; 95% CI −7.4%, −2.1%, respectively). There was no evidence of within-person-between-eye differences in retinal vasculometry associations by diagnoses.

Conclusions

Retinal vessel width associations with glaucoma and novel associations with vessel area and tortuosity, together with no evidence of within-person-between-eye differences in retinal vasculometry, suggest a vascular cause of glaucoma.

•

Retinal vessel measurements, including (as a first report) vessel tortuosity and area, were associated with high-tension glaucoma and other glaucoma-related outcomes.

•

Novel analyses showing that within-person-between-eye glaucoma diagnoses, intraocular pressure, and retinal vasculometry were uncorrelated provides further evidence that systemic microvascular changes may cause glaucoma.

Weekend and weekday associations between the residential built environment and physical activity: Findings from the ENABLE London study

Background

We assessed whether the residential built environment was associated with physical activity (PA) differently on weekdays and weekends, and contributed to socio-economic differences in PA.

Methods

Measures of PA and walkability, park proximity and public transport accessibility were derived for baseline participants (n = 1,064) of the Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) Study. Multilevel-linear-regressions examined associations between weekend and weekday steps and Moderate to Vigorous PA (MVPA), residential built environment factors, and housing tenure status as a proxy for socio-economic position.

Results

A one-unit decrease in walkability was associated with 135 (95% CI [28; 242]) fewer steps and 1.2 (95% CI [0.3; 2.1]) fewer minutes of MVPA on weekend days, compared with little difference in steps and minutes of MVPA observed on weekdays. A 1km-increase in distance to the nearest local park was associated with 597 (95% CI [161; 1032]) more steps and 4.7 (95% CI [1.2; 8.2]) more minutes of MVPA on weekend days; 84 fewer steps (95% CI [-253;420]) and 0.3 fewer minutes of MVPA (95%CI [-2.3, 3.0]) on weekdays. Lower public transport accessibility was associated with increased steps on a weekday (767 steps, 95%CI [–13,1546]) compared with fewer steps on weekend days (608 fewer steps, 95% CI [–44, 1658]). None of the associations between built environment factors and PA on either weekend or weekdays were modified by socio-economic status. However, socio-economic differences in PA related moderately to socio-economic disparities in PA-promoting features of the residential neighbourhood.

Conclusions

The residential built environment is associated with PA differently at weekends and on weekdays, and contributes moderately to socio-economic differences in PA.

Retinal Vascular Tortuosity and Diameter Associations with Adiposity and Components of Body Composition

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess whether adiposity or body composition relates to microvascular characteristics of the retina, indicative of cardiometabolic function.

METHODS

A fully automated QUARTZ software processed retinal images from 68,550 UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years). Differences in retinal vessel diameter and tortuosity with body composition measures from the Tanita analyzer were obtained by using multilevel regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, clinic, smoking, and Townsend deprivation index.

RESULTS

Venular tortuosity and diameter increased by approximately 2% (P < 10^-300 ) and 0.6 μm (P < 10^-6 ), respectively, per SD increase in BMI, waist circumference index, waist-hip ratio, total body fat mass index, and fat-free mass index (FFMI). Venular associations with adiposity persisted after adjustment for FFMI, whereas associations with FFMI were weakened by FMI adjustment. Arteriolar diameter (not tortuosity) narrowing with FFMI was independent of adiposity (-0.6 μm; -0.7 to -0.4 μm per SD increment of FFMI), while adiposity associations with arteriolar diameter were largely nonsignificant after adjustment for FFMI.

CONCLUSIONS

This demonstrates, on an unprecedented scale, that venular tortuosity and diameter are more strongly associated with adiposity, whereas arteriolar diameter relates more strongly to fat-free mass. Different attributes of the retinal microvasculature may reflect distinct roles of body composition and fatness on the cardiometabolic system.

Active design of built environments for increasing levels of physical activity in adults: the ENABLE London natural experiment study

Background

Low physical activity is widespread and poses a serious public health challenge both globally and in the UK. The need to increase population levels of physical activity is recognised in current health policy recommendations. There is considerable interest in whether or not the built environment influences health behaviours, particularly physical activity levels, but longitudinal evidence is limited.

Objectives

The effect of moving into East Village (the former London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games Athletes’ Village, repurposed on active design principles) on the levels of physical activity and adiposity, as well as other health-related and well-being outcomes among adults, was examined.

Design

The Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Environments in London (ENABLE London) study was a longitudinal cohort study based on a natural experiment.

Setting

East Village, London, UK.

Participants

A cohort of 1278 adults (aged ≥ 16 years) and 219 children seeking to move into social, intermediate and market-rent East Village accommodation were recruited in 2013–15 and followed up after 2 years.

Intervention

The East Village neighbourhood, the former London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games Athletes’ Village, is a purpose-built, mixed-use residential development specifically designed to encourage healthy active living by improving walkability and access to public transport.

Main outcome measure

Change in objectively measured daily steps from baseline to follow-up.

Methods

Change in environmental exposures associated with physical activity was assessed using Geographic Information System-derived measures. Individual objective measures of physical activity using accelerometry, body mass index and bioelectrical impedance (per cent of fat mass) were obtained, as were perceptions of change in crime and quality of the built environment. We examined changes in levels of physical activity and adiposity using multilevel models adjusting for sex, age group, ethnic group, housing sector (fixed effects) and baseline household (random effect), comparing the change in those who moved to East Village (intervention group) with the change in those who did not move to East Village (control group). Effects of housing sector (i.e. social, intermediate/affordable, market-rent) as an effect modifier were also examined. Qualitative work was carried out to provide contextual information about the perceived effects of moving to East Village.

Results

A total of 877 adults (69%) were followed up after 2 years (mean 24 months, range 19–34 months, postponed from 1 year owing to the delayed opening of East Village), of whom 50% had moved to East Village; insufficient numbers of children moved to East Village to be considered further. In adults, moving to East Village was associated with only a small, non-significant, increase in mean daily steps (154 steps, 95% confidence interval –231 to 539 steps), more so in the intermediate sector (433 steps, 95% confidence interval –175 to 1042 steps) than in the social and market-rent sectors (although differences between housing sectors were not statistically significant), despite sizeable improvements in walkability, access to public transport and neighbourhood perceptions of crime and quality of the built environment. There were no appreciable effects on time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity or sedentary time, body mass index or percentage fat mass, either overall or by housing sector. Qualitative findings indicated that, although participants enjoyed their new homes, certain design features might actually serve to reduce levels of activity.

Conclusions

Despite strong evidence of large positive changes in neighbourhood perceptions and walkability, there was only weak evidence that moving to East Village was associated with increased physical activity. There was no evidence of an effect on markers of adiposity. Hence, improving the physical activity environment on its own may not be sufficient to increase population physical activity or other health behaviours.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 8, No. 12. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This research was also supported by project grants from the Medical Research Council National Prevention Research Initiative (MR/J000345/1).

Quantifying childhood fat mass: comparison of a novel height-and-weight-based prediction approach with DXA and bioelectrical impedance

Accurate assessment of childhood adiposity is important both for individuals and populations. We compared fat mass (FM) predictions from a novel prediction model based on height, weight and demographic factors (height–weight equation) with FM from bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), using the deuterium dilution method as a reference standard. FM data from all four methods were available for 174 ALSPAC Study participants, seen 2002–2003, aged 11–12-years. FM predictions from the three approaches were compared to the reference standard using; R², calibration (slope and intercept) and root mean square error (RMSE). R² values were high from ‘height–weight equation’ (90%) but lower than from DXA (95%) and BIA (91%). Whilst calibration intercepts from all three approaches were close to the ideal of 0, the calibration slope from the ‘height–weight equation’ (slope = 1.02) was closer to the ideal of 1 than DXA (slope = 0.88) and BIA (slope = 0.87) assessments. The ‘height–weight equation’ provided more accurate individual predictions with a smaller RMSE value (2.6 kg) than BIA (3.1 kg) or DXA (3.4 kg). Predictions from the ‘height–weight equation’ were at least as accurate as DXA and BIA and were based on simpler measurements and open-source equation, emphasising its potential for both individual and population-level FM assessments.

Longitudinal impact of changes in the residential built environment on physical activity: findings from the ENABLE London cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous research has reported associations between features of the residential built environment and physical activity but these studies have mainly been cross-sectional, limiting inference. This paper examines whether changes in a range of residential built environment features are associated with changes in measures of physical activity in adults. It also explores whether observed effects are moderated by socio-economic status.

METHODS

Data from the Examining Neighbourhood Activity in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) study were used. A cohort of 1278 adults seeking to move into social, intermediate, and market-rent East Village accommodation was recruited in 2013-2015, and followed up after 2 years. Accelerometer-derived steps (primary outcome), and GIS-derived measures of residential walkability, park proximity and public transport accessibility were obtained both at baseline and follow-up. Daily steps at follow-up were regressed on daily steps at baseline, change in built environment exposures and confounding variables using multilevel linear regression to assess if changes in neighbourhood walkability, park proximity and public transport accessibility were associated with changes in daily steps. We also explored whether observed effects were moderated by housing tenure as a marker of socio-economic status.

RESULTS

Between baseline and follow-up, participants experienced a 1.4 unit (95%CI 1.2,1.6) increase in neighbourhood walkability; a 270 m (95%CI 232,307) decrease in distance to their nearest park; and a 0.7 point (95% CI 0.6,0.9) increase in accessibility to public transport. A 1 s.d. increase in neighbourhood walkability was associated with an increase of 302 (95%CI 110,494) daily steps. A 1 s.d. increase in accessibility to public transport was not associated with any change in steps overall, but was associated with a decrease in daily steps amongst social housing seekers (- 295 steps (95%CI - 595, 3), and an increase in daily steps for market-rent housing seekers (410 95%CI -191, 1010) (P-value for effect modification = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Targeted changes in the residential built environment may result in increases in physical activity levels. However, the effect of improved accessibility to public transport may not be equitable, showing greater benefit to the more advantaged.

Evaluating the effect of change in the built environment on mental health and subjective well-being: a natural experiment

BACKGROUND

Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mental health and well-being, but longitudinal evidence is limited. We examined the effect of relocating to East Village (the former London 2012 Olympic Athletes' Village), repurposed to encourage healthy active living, on mental health and well-being.

METHODS

1278 adults seeking different housing tenures in East village were recruited and examined during 2013-2015. 877 (69%) were followed-up after 2  years; 50% had moved to East Village. Analysis examined change in objective measures of the built environment, neighbourhood perceptions (scored from low to high; quality -12 to 12, safety -10 to 10 units), self-reported mental health (depression and anxiety) and well-being (life satisfaction, life being worthwhile and happiness) among East Village participants compared with controls who did not move to East Village. Follow-up measures were regressed on baseline for each outcome with group status as a binary variable, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, housing tenure and household clustering (random effect).

RESULTS

Participants who moved to East Village lived closer to their nearest park (528 m, 95% CI 482 to 575 m), in more walkable areas, and had better access to public transport, compared with controls. Living in East Village was associated with marked improvements in neighbourhood perceptions (quality 5.0, 95% CI 4.5 to 5.4 units; safety 3.4, 95% CI 2.9 to 3.9 units), but there was no overall effect on mental health and well-being outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Despite large improvements in the built environment, there was no evidence that moving to East Village improved mental health and well-being. Changes in the built environment alone are insufficient to improve mental health and well-being.

The effect of moving to East Village, the former London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games Athletes' Village, on mode of travel (ENABLE London study, a natural experiment)

BACKGROUND

Interventions to encourage active modes of travel (walking, cycling) may improve physical activity levels, but longitudinal evidence is limited and major change in the built environment / travel infrastructure may be needed. East Village (the former London 2012 Olympic Games Athletes Village) has been repurposed on active design principles with improved walkability, open space and public transport and restrictions on residential car parking. We examined the effect of moving to East Village on adult travel patterns.

METHODS

One thousand two hundred seventy-eight adults (16+ years) seeking to move into social, intermediate, and market-rent East Village accommodation were recruited in 2013-2015, and followed up after 2 years. Individual objective measures of physical activity using accelerometry (ActiGraph GT3X+) and geographic location using GPS travel recorders (QStarz) were time-matched and a validated algorithm assigned four travel modes (walking, cycling, motorised vehicle, train). We examined change in time spent in different travel modes, using multilevel linear regresssion models adjusting for sex, age group, ethnicity, housing group (fixed effects) and household (random effect), comparing those who had moved to East Village at follow-up with those who did not.

RESULTS

Of 877 adults (69%) followed-up, 578 (66%) provided valid accelerometry and GPS data for at least 1 day (≥540 min) at both time points; half had moved to East Village. Despite no overall effects on physical activity levels, sizeable improvements in walkability and access to public transport in East Village resulted in decreased daily vehicle travel (8.3 mins, 95%CI 2.5,14.0), particularly in the intermediate housing group (9.6 mins, 95%CI 2.2,16.9), and increased underground travel (3.9 mins, 95%CI 1.2,6.5), more so in the market-rent group (11.5 mins, 95%CI 4.4,18.6). However, there were no effects on time spent walking or cycling.

CONCLUSION

Designing walkable neighbourhoods near high quality public transport and restrictions on car usage, may offer a community-wide strategy shift to sustainable transport modes by increasing public transport use, and reducing motor vehicle travel.

Associations of Retinal Microvascular Diameters and Tortuosity With Blood Pressure and Arterial Stiffness: United Kingdom Biobank

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

To examine the baseline associations of retinal vessel morphometry with blood pressure (BP) and arterial stiffness in United Kingdom Biobank. The United Kingdom Biobank included 68 550 participants aged 40 to 69 years who underwent nonmydriatic retinal imaging, BP, and arterial stiffness index assessment. A fully automated image analysis program (QUARTZ [Quantitative Analysis of Retinal Vessel Topology and Size]) provided measures of retinal vessel diameter and tortuosity. The associations between retinal vessel morphology and cardiovascular disease risk factors/outcomes were examined using multilevel linear regression to provide absolute differences in vessel diameter and percentage differences in tortuosity (allowing within person clustering), adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, clinic, body mass index, smoking, and deprivation index. Greater arteriolar tortuosity was associated with higher systolic BP (relative increase, 1.2%; 95% CI, 0.9; 1.4% per 10 mmHg), higher mean arterial pressure, 1.3%; 0.9, 1.7% per 10 mmHg, and higher pulse pressure (PP, 1.8%; 1.4; 2.2% per 10 mmHg). Narrower arterioles were associated with higher systolic BP (−0.9 µm; −0.94, −0.87 µm per 10 mmHg), mean arterial pressure (−1.5 µm; −1.5, −1.5 µm per 10 mmHg), PP (−0.7 µm; −0.8, −0.7 µm per 10 mmHg), and arterial stiffness index (−0.12 µm; −0.14, −0.09 µm per ms/m²). Associations were in the same direction but marginally weaker for venular tortuosity and diameter. This study assessing the retinal microvasculature at scale has shown clear associations between retinal vessel morphometry, BP, and arterial stiffness index. These observations further our understanding of the preclinical disease processes and interplay between microvascular and macrovascular disease.

The effect of moving to East Village, the former London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games Athletes' Village, on physical activity and adiposity (ENABLE London): a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The built environment can affect health behaviours, but longitudinal evidence is limited. We aimed to examine the effect of moving into East Village, the former London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games Athletes' Village that was repurposed on active design principles, on adult physical activity and adiposity.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we recruited adults seeking new accommodation in East Village and compared physical activity and built environment measures with these data in control participants who had not moved to East Village. At baseline and after 2 years, we objectively measured physical activity with accelerometry and adiposity with body-mass index and bioimpedance, and we assessed objective measures of and participants' perceptions of change in their built environment. We examined the change in physical activity and adiposity between the East Village and control groups, after adjusting for sex, age group, ethnicity, housing tenure, and household (as a random effect).

FINDINGS

We recruited participants for baseline assessment between Jan 24, 2013, and Jan 7, 2016, and we followed up the cohort after 2 years, between Feb 24, 2015, and Oct 24, 2017. At baseline, 1819 households (one adult per household) consented to initial contact by the study team. 1278 adults (16 years and older) from 1006 (55%) households participated at baseline; of these participants, 877 (69%) adults from 710 (71%) households were assessed after 2 years, of whom 441 (50%) participants from 343 (48%) households had moved to East Village. We found no effect associated with moving to East Village on daily steps, the time spent doing moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (either in total or in 10-min bouts or more), daily sedentary time, body-mass index, or fat mass percentage between participants who had moved to East Village and those in the control group, despite sizeable improvements in walkability and neighbourhood perceptions of crime and quality among the East Village group relative to their original neighbourhood at baseline.

INTERPRETATION

Despite large improvements in neighbourhood perceptions and walkability, we found no clear evidence that moving to East Village was associated with increased physical activity. Improving the built environment on its own might be insufficient to increase physical activity.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research and National Prevention Research Initiative.

Development and validation of a prediction model for fat mass in children and adolescents: meta-analysis using individual participant data

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a prediction model for fat mass in children aged 4-15 years using routinely available risk factors of height, weight, and demographic information without the need for more complex forms of assessment.

DESIGN

Individual participant data meta-analysis.

SETTING

Four population based cross sectional studies and a fifth study for external validation, United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

A pooled derivation dataset (four studies) of 2375 children and an external validation dataset of 176 children with complete data on anthropometric measurements and deuterium dilution assessments of fat mass.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Multivariable linear regression analysis, using backwards selection for inclusion of predictor variables and allowing non-linear relations, was used to develop a prediction model for fat-free mass (and subsequently fat mass by subtracting resulting estimates from weight) based on the four studies. Internal validation and then internal-external cross validation were used to examine overfitting and generalisability of the model's predictive performance within the four development studies; external validation followed using the fifth dataset.

RESULTS

Model derivation was based on a multi-ethnic population of 2375 children (47.8% boys, n=1136) aged 4-15 years. The final model containing predictor variables of height, weight, age, sex, and ethnicity had extremely high predictive ability (optimism adjusted R²: 94.8%, 95% confidence interval 94.4% to 95.2%) with excellent calibration of observed and predicted values. The internal validation showed minimal overfitting and good model generalisability, with excellent calibration and predictive performance. External validation in 176 children aged 11-12 years showed promising generalisability of the model (R²: 90.0%, 95% confidence interval 87.2% to 92.8%) with good calibration of observed and predicted fat mass (slope: 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.07). The mean difference between observed and predicted fat mass was -1.29 kg (95% confidence interval -1.62 to -0.96 kg).

CONCLUSION

The developed model accurately predicted levels of fat mass in children aged 4-15 years. The prediction model is based on simple anthropometric measures without the need for more complex forms of assessment and could improve the accuracy of assessments for body fatness in children (compared with those provided by body mass index) for effective surveillance, prevention, and management of clinical and public health obesity.

Retinal Vasculometry Associations with Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Study

PURPOSE

To examine associations between retinal vessel morphometry and cardiometabolic risk factors in older British men and women.

DESIGN

Retinal imaging examination as part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk Eye Study.

PARTICIPANTS

Retinal imaging and clinical assessments were carried out in 7411 participants. Retinal images were analyzed using a fully automated validated computerized system that provides novel measures of vessel morphometry.

METHODS

Associations between cardiometabolic risk factors, chronic disease, and retinal markers were analyzed using multilevel linear regression, adjusted for age, gender, and within-person clustering, to provide percentage differences in tortuosity and absolute differences in width.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Retinal arteriolar and venular tortuosity and width.

RESULTS

In all, 279 802 arterioles and 285 791 venules from 5947 participants (mean age, 67.6 years; standard deviation [SD], 7.6 years; 57% female) were analyzed. Increased venular tortuosity was associated with higher body mass index (BMI; 2.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7%-3.3% per 5 kg/m2), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level (2.2%; 95% CI, 1.0%-3.5% per 1%), and prevalent type 2 diabetes (6.5%; 95% CI, 2.8%-10.4%); wider venules were associated with older age (2.6 μm; 95% CI, 2.2-2.9 μm per decade), higher triglyceride levels (0.6 μm; 95% CI, 0.3-0.9 μm per 1 mmol/l), BMI (0.7 μm; 95% CI, 0.4-1.0 per 5 kg/m2), HbA1c level (0.4 μm; 95% CI, -0.1 to 0.9 per 1%), and being a current smoker (3.0 μm; 95% CI, 1.7-4.3 μm); smoking also was associated with wider arterioles (2.1 μm; 95% CI, 1.3-2.9 μm). Thinner venules were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (1.4 μm; 95% CI, 0.7-2.2 per 1 mmol/l). Arteriolar tortuosity increased with age (5.4%; 95% CI, 3.8%-7.1% per decade), higher systolic blood pressure (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.5%-1.9% per 10 mmHg), in females (3.8%; 95% CI, 1.4%-6.4%), and in those with prevalent stroke (8.3%; 95% CI, -0.6% to 18%); no association was observed with prevalent myocardial infarction. Narrower arterioles were associated with age (0.8 μm; 95% CI, 0.6-1.0 μm per decade), higher systolic blood pressure (0.5 μm; 95% CI, 0.4-0.6 μm per 10 mmHg), total cholesterol level (0.2 μm; 95% CI, 0.0-0.3 μm per 1 mmol/l), and HDL (1.2 μm; 95% CI, 0.7-1.6 μm per 1 mmol/l).

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolic risk factors showed a graded association with both tortuosity and width of retinal venules, even among people without clinical diabetes, whereas atherosclerotic risk factors correlated more closely with arteriolar width, even excluding those with hypertension and cardiovascular disease. These noninvasive microvasculature measures should be evaluated further as predictors of future cardiometabolic disease.

Exploring the use of adjusted body mass index thresholds based on equivalent insulin resistance for defining overweight and obesity in UK South Asian children

Background

Body mass index (BMI) overweight/obesity thresholds in South Asian (SA) adults, at equivalent type-2 diabetes risk are lower than for white Europeans (WE). We aimed to define adjusted overweight/obesity thresholds for UK–SA children based on equivalent insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) to WE children.

Methods

In 1138 WE and 1292 SA children aged 9.0–10.9 years, multi-level regression models quantified associations between BMI and HOMA-IR by ethnic group. HOMA-IR levels for WE children were calculated at established overweight/obesity thresholds (at 9.5 years and 10.5 years), based on UK90 BMI cut-offs. Quantified associations in SA children were then used to estimate adjusted SA weight-status thresholds at the calculated HOMA-IR levels.

Results

At 9.5 years, current WE BMI overweight and obesity thresholds were 19.2 kg/m², 21.3 kg/m² (boys) and 20.0 kg/m², 22.5 kg/m² (girls). At equivalent HOMA-IR, SA overweight and obesity thresholds were lower by 2.9 kg/m² (95% CI: 2.5–3.3 kg/m²) and 3.2 kg/m² (95% CI: 2.7–3.6 kg/m²) in boys and 3.0 kg/m² (95% CI: 2.6–3.4 kg/m²) and 3.3 kg/m² (95% CI: 2.8–3.8 kg/m²) in girls, respectively. At these lower thresholds, overweight/obesity prevalences in SA children were approximately doubled (boys: 61%, girls: 56%). Patterns at 10.5 years were similar.

Conclusions

SA adjusted overweight/obesity thresholds based on equivalent IR were markedly lower than BMI thresholds for WE children, and defined more than half of SA children as overweight/obese.

An open-source tool to identify active travel from hip-worn accelerometer, GPS and GIS data

Background

Increases in physical activity through active travel have the potential to have large beneficial effects on populations, through both better health outcomes and reduced motorized traffic. However accurately identifying travel mode in large datasets is problematic. Here we provide an open source tool to quantify time spent stationary and in four travel modes(walking, cycling, train, motorised vehicle) from accelerometer measured physical activity data, combined with GPS and GIS data.

Methods

The Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London study evaluates the effect of the built environment on health behaviours, including physical activity. Participants wore accelerometers and GPS receivers on the hip for 7 days. We time-matched accelerometer and GPS, and then extracted data from the commutes of 326 adult participants, using stated commute times and modes, which were manually checked to confirm stated travel mode. This yielded examples of five travel modes: walking, cycling, motorised vehicle, train and stationary. We used this example data to train a gradient boosted tree, a form of supervised machine learning algorithm, on each data point (131,537 points), rather than on journeys. Accuracy during training was assessed using five-fold cross-validation. We also manually identified the travel behaviour of both 21 participants from ENABLE London (402,749 points), and 10 participants from a separate study (STAMP-2, 210,936 points), who were not included in the training data. We compared our predictions against this manual identification to further test accuracy and test generalisability.

Results

Applying the algorithm, we correctly identified travel mode 97.3% of the time in cross-validation (mean sensitivity 96.3%, mean active travel sensitivity 94.6%). We showed 96.0% agreement between manual identification and prediction of 21 individuals’ travel modes (mean sensitivity 92.3%, mean active travel sensitivity 84.9%) and 96.5% agreement between the STAMP-2 study and predictions (mean sensitivity 85.5%, mean active travel sensitivity 78.9%).

Conclusion

We present a generalizable tool that identifies time spent stationary and time spent walking with very high precision, time spent in trains or vehicles with good precision, and time spent cycling with moderate precisionIn studies where both accelerometer and GPS data are available this tool complements analyses of physical activity, showing whether differences in PA may be explained by differences in travel mode. All code necessary to replicate, fit and predict to other datasets is provided to facilitate use by other researchers.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12966-018-0724-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Housing, neighbourhood and sociodemographic associations with adult levels of physical activity and adiposity: baseline findings from the ENABLE London study

OBJECTIVES

The neighbourhood environment is increasingly shown to be an important correlate of health. We assessed associations between housing tenure, neighbourhood perceptions, sociodemographic factors and levels of physical activity (PA) and adiposity among adults seeking housing in East Village (formerly London 2012 Olympic/Paralympic Games Athletes' Village).

SETTING

Cross-sectional analysis of adults seeking social, intermediate and market-rent housing in East Village.

PARTICIPANTS

1278 participants took part in the study (58% female). Complete data on adiposity (body mass index (BMI) and fat mass %) were available for 1240 participants (97%); of these, a subset of 1107 participants (89%) met the inclusion criteria for analyses of accelerometer-based measurements of PA. We examined associations between housing sector sought, neighbourhood perceptions (covariates) and PA and adiposity (dependent variables) adjusted for household clustering, sex, age group, ethnic group and limiting long-standing illness.

RESULTS

Participants seeking social housing had the fewest daily steps (8304, 95% CI 7959 to 8648) and highest BMI (26.0 kg/m², 95% CI 25.5kg/m² to 26.5 kg/m²) compared with those seeking intermediate (daily steps 9417, 95% CI 9106 to 9731; BMI 24.8 kg/m², 95% CI 24.4 kg/m² to 25.2 kg/m²) or market-rent housing (daily steps 9313, 95% CI 8858 to 9768; BMI 24.6 kg/m², 95% CI 24.0 kg/m² to 25.2 kg/m²). Those seeking social housing had lower levels of PA (by 19%-42%) at weekends versus weekdays, compared with other housing groups. Positive perceptions of neighbourhood quality were associated with higher steps and lower BMI, with differences between social and intermediate groups reduced by ~10% following adjustment, equivalent to a reduction of 111 for steps and 0.5 kg/m² for BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

The social housing group undertook less PA than other housing sectors, with weekend PA offering the greatest scope for increasing PA and tackling adiposity in this group. Perceptions of neighbourhood quality were associated with PA and adiposity and reduced differences in steps and BMI between housing sectors. Interventions to encourage PA at weekends and improve neighbourhood quality, especially among the most disadvantaged, may provide scope to reduce inequalities in health behaviour.

The contribution of physical fitness to individual and ethnic differences in risk markers for type 2 diabetes in children: The Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

BACKGROUND

The relationship between physical fitness and risk markers for type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children and the contribution to ethnic differences in these risk markers have been little studied. We examined associations between physical fitness and early risk markers for T2D and cardiovascular disease in 9- to 10-year-old UK children.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 1445 9- to 10-year-old UK children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. A fasting blood sample was used for measurement of insulin, glucose (from which homeostasis model assessment [HOMA]-insulin resistance [IR] was derived), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), urate, C-reactive protein (CRP), and lipids. Measurements of blood pressure (BP) and fat mass index (FMI) were made; physical activity was measured by accelerometry. Estimated VO_{2 max} was derived from a submaximal fitness step test. Associations were estimated using multilevel linear regression.

RESULTS

Higher VO_{2 max} was associated with lower FMI, insulin, HOMA-IR, HbA1c, glucose, urate, CRP, triglycerides, LDL-cholesterol, BP and higher HDL-cholesterol. Associations were reduced by adjustment for FMI, but those for insulin, HOMA-IR, glucose, urate, CRP, triglycerides and BP remained statistically significant. Higher levels of insulin and HOMA-IR in South Asian children were partially explained by lower levels of VO_2max compared to white Europeans, accounting for 11% of the difference.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical fitness is associated with risk markers for T2D and CVD in children, which persist after adjustment for adiposity. Higher levels of IR in South Asians are partially explained by lower physical fitness levels compared to white Europeans. Improving physical fitness may provide scope for reducing risks of T2D.

The Effect of Longer-Term and Exclusive Breastfeeding Promotion on Visual Outcome in Adolescence

Purpose

Breastfeeding may influence early visual development. We examined whether an intervention to promote increased duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding improves visual outcomes at 16 years of age.

Methods

Follow-up of a cluster-randomized trial in 31 Belarusian maternity hospitals/polyclinics randomized to receive a breastfeeding promotion intervention, or usual care, where 46% vs. 3% were exclusively breastfed at 3 months respectively. Low vision in either eye was defined as unaided logMAR vision of ≥0.3 or worse (equivalent to Snellen 20/40) and was used as the primary outcome. Open-field autorefraction in a subset (n = 963) suggested that 84% of those with low vision were myopic. Primary analysis was based on modified intention-to-treat, accounting for clustering within hospitals/clinics. Observational analyses also examined the effect of breastfeeding duration and exclusivity, as well as other sociodemographic and environmental determinants of low vision.

Results

A total of 13,392 of 17,046 (79%) participants were followed up at 16 years. Low vision prevalence was 19.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.5, 22.0%) in the experimental group versus 21.6% (19.5, 23.8%) in the control group. Cluster-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of low vision associated with the intervention was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.16); 0.88 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.05) after adjustment for parental and early life factors. In observational analyses, breastfeeding duration and exclusivity had no significant effect on low vision. However, maternal age at birth (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.14/5-year increase) and urban versus rural residence were associated with increased risk of low vision. Lower parental education, number of older siblings was associated with a lower risk of low vision; boys had lower risk compared with girls (0.64, 95% CI: 0.59,0.70).

Conclusions

Exclusive breastfeeding promotion had no significant effect on visual outcomes in this study, but other environmental factors showed strong associations. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01561612.)

Takeaway meal consumption and risk markers for coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and obesity in children aged 9-10 years: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between takeaway meal consumption and risk markers for coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and obesity risk markers in children.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional, school-based observational study.

SETTING

85 primary schools across London, Birmingham and Leicester.

PARTICIPANTS

1948 UK primary school children in year 5, aged 9-10 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Children reported their frequency of takeaway meal consumption, completed a 24-hour dietary recall, had physical measurements and provided a fasting blood sample.

RESULTS

Among 1948 participants with complete data, 499 (26%) never/hardly ever consumed a takeaway meal, 894 (46%) did so <1/week and 555 (28%) did ≥1/week. In models adjusted for age, sex, month, school, ethnicity and socioeconomic status, more frequent takeaway meal consumption was associated with higher dietary intakes of energy, fat % energy and saturated fat % energy and higher energy density (all P trend <0.001) and lower starch, protein and micronutrient intakes (all P trend <0.05). A higher frequency of takeaway meal consumption was associated with higher serum total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (P trend=0.04, 0.01, respectively); children eating a takeaway meal ≥1/week had total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol 0.09 mmol/L (95% CI 0.01 to 0.18) and 0.10 mmol/L (95% CI 0.02 to 0.18) higher respectively than children never/hardly ever eating a takeaway meal; their fat mass index was also higher.

CONCLUSIONS

More frequent takeaway meal consumption in children was associated with unhealthy dietary nutrient intake patterns and potentially with adverse longer term consequences for obesity and coronary heart disease risk.

An observational study to assess if automated diabetic retinopathy image assessment software can replace one or more steps of manual imaging grading and to determine their cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Diabetic retinopathy screening in England involves labour-intensive manual grading of retinal images. Automated retinal image analysis systems (ARIASs) may offer an alternative to manual grading.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the screening performance and cost-effectiveness of ARIASs to replace level 1 human graders or pre-screen with ARIASs in the NHS diabetic eye screening programme (DESP). To examine technical issues associated with implementation.

DESIGN

Observational retrospective measurement comparison study with a real-time evaluation of technical issues and a decision-analytic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness.

SETTING

A NHS DESP.

PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive diabetic patients who attended a routine annual NHS DESP visit.

INTERVENTIONS

Retinal images were manually graded and processed by three ARIASs: iGradingM (version 1.1; originally Medalytix Group Ltd, Manchester, UK, but purchased by Digital Healthcare, Cambridge, UK, at the initiation of the study, purchased in turn by EMIS Health, Leeds, UK, after conclusion of the study), Retmarker (version 0.8.2, Retmarker Ltd, Coimbra, Portugal) and EyeArt (Eyenuk Inc., Woodland Hills, CA, USA). The final manual grade was used as the reference standard. Arbitration on a subset of discrepancies between manual grading and the use of an ARIAS by a reading centre masked to all grading was used to create a reference standard manual grade modified by arbitration.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Screening performance (sensitivity, specificity, false-positive rate and likelihood ratios) and diagnostic accuracy [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] of ARIASs. A secondary analysis explored the influence of camera type and patients' ethnicity, age and sex on screening performance. Economic analysis estimated the cost per appropriate screening outcome identified.

RESULTS

A total of 20,258 patients with 102,856 images were entered into the study. The sensitivity point estimates of the ARIASs were as follows: EyeArt 94.7% (95% CI 94.2% to 95.2%) for any retinopathy, 93.8% (95% CI 92.9% to 94.6%) for referable retinopathy and 99.6% (95% CI 97.0% to 99.9%) for proliferative retinopathy; and Retmarker 73.0% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.0%) for any retinopathy, 85.0% (95% CI 83.6% to 86.2%) for referable retinopathy and 97.9% (95% CI 94.9 to 99.1%) for proliferative retinopathy. iGradingM classified all images as either 'disease' or 'ungradable', limiting further iGradingM analysis. The sensitivity and false-positive rates for EyeArt were not affected by ethnicity, sex or camera type but sensitivity declined marginally with increasing patient age. The screening performance of Retmarker appeared to vary with patient's age, ethnicity and camera type. Both EyeArt and Retmarker were cost saving relative to manual grading either as a replacement for level 1 human grading or used prior to level 1 human grading, although the latter was less cost-effective. A threshold analysis testing the highest ARIAS cost per patient before which ARIASs became more expensive per appropriate outcome than human grading, when used to replace level 1 grader, was Retmarker £3.82 and EyeArt £2.71 per patient.

LIMITATIONS

The non-randomised study design limited the health economic analysis but the same retinal images were processed by all ARIASs in this measurement comparison study.

CONCLUSIONS

Retmarker and EyeArt achieved acceptable sensitivity for referable retinopathy and false-positive rates (compared with human graders as reference standard) and appear to be cost-effective alternatives to a purely manual grading approach. Future work is required to develop technical specifications to optimise deployment and address potential governance issues.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme, a Fight for Sight Grant (Hirsch grant award) and the Department of Health's NIHR Biomedical Research Centre for Ophthalmology at Moorfields Eye Hospital and the University College London Institute of Ophthalmology.

Reassessing Ethnic Differences in Mean BMI and Changes Between 2007 and 2013 in English Children

OBJECTIVE

National body fatness (BF) data for English South Asian and Black children use BMI, which provides inaccurate ethnic comparisons. BF levels and time trends in the English National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) between 2007 and 2013 were assessed by using ethnic-specific adjusted BMI (aBMI) for South Asian and Black children.

METHODS

Analyses were based on 3,195,323 children aged 4 to 5 years and 2,962,673 children aged 10 to 11 years. aBMI values for South Asian and Black children (relating to BF as in White children) were derived independently. Mean aBMI levels and 5-year aBMI changes were obtained by using linear regression.

RESULTS

In the 2007-2008 NCMP, mean aBMIs in 10- to 11-year-old children (boys, girls) were higher in South Asian children (20.1, 19.9 kg/m² ) and Black girls, but not in Black boys (18.4, 19.2 kg/m² ) when compared with White children (18.6, 19.0 kg/m² ; all P < 0.001). Mean 5-year changes (boys, girls) were higher in South Asian children (0.16, 0.32 kg/m² per 5 y; both P < 0.001) and Black boys but not girls (0.13, 0.15 kg/m² per 5 y; P = 0.01, P = 0.41) compared with White children (0.02, 0.11 kg/m² per 5 y). Ethnic differences at 4 to 5 years were similar. Unadjusted BMI showed similar 5-year changes but different mean BMI patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

BF levels were higher in South Asian children than in other groups in 2007 and diverged from those in White children until 2013, a pattern not apparent from unadjusted BMI data.

Comparisons of depression, anxiety, well-being, and perceptions of the built environment amongst adults seeking social, intermediate and market-rent accommodation in the former London Olympic Athletes' Village

The Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) study provides a unique opportunity to examine differences in mental health and well-being amongst adults seeking social, intermediate (affordable rent), and market-rent housing in a purpose built neighbourhood (East Village, the former London 2012 Olympic Athletes' Village), specifically designed to encourage positive health behaviours. Multi-level logistic regression models examined baseline differences in levels of depression, anxiety and well-being across the housing groups. Compared with the intermediate group, those seeking social housing were more likely to be depressed, anxious and had poorer well-being after adjustment for demographic and health status variables. Further adjustments for neighbourhood perceptions suggest that compared with the intermediate group, perceived neighbourhood characteristics may be an important determinant of depression amongst those seeking social housing, and lower levels of happiness the previous day amongst those seeking market-rent housing. These findings add to the extensive literature on inequalities in health, and provide a strong basis for future longitudinal work that will examine change in depression, anxiety and well-being after moving into East Village, where those seeking social housing potentially have the most to gain.

Automated arteriole and venule classification using deep learning for retinal images from the UK Biobank cohort

The morphometric characteristics of the retinal vasculature are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, analysis of data from large population based studies is needed to help resolve uncertainties in some of these associations. This requires automated systems that extract quantitative measures of vessel morphology from large numbers of retinal images. Associations between retinal vessel morphology and disease precursors/outcomes may be similar or opposing for arterioles and venules. Therefore, the accurate detection of the vessel type is an important element in such automated systems. This paper presents a deep learning approach for the automatic classification of arterioles and venules across the entire retinal image, including vessels located at the optic disc. This comprises of a convolutional neural network whose architecture contains six learned layers: three convolutional and three fully-connected. Complex patterns are automatically learnt from the data, which avoids the use of hand crafted features. The method is developed and evaluated using 835,914 centreline pixels derived from 100 retinal images selected from the 135,867 retinal images obtained at the UK Biobank (large population-based cohort study of middle aged and older adults) baseline examination. This is a challenging dataset in respect to image quality and hence arteriole/venule classification is required to be highly robust. The method achieves a significant increase in accuracy of 8.1% when compared to the baseline method, resulting in an arteriole/venule classification accuracy of 86.97% (per pixel basis) over the entire retinal image.

Sleep Duration and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Associations between sleep duration and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk markers in childhood have been little studied. We examined associations between self-reported sleep duration and T2D risk markers in children.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 4525 multiethnic UK children aged 9 to 10 years. Sleep time was calculated from self-reported usual time of going to bed and getting up on a school day, validated in a subset using accelerometers. Fasting blood samples provided levels of serum lipids and insulin, plasma glucose, and HbA1c. Physical measures included height, weight, bioimpedance, and blood pressure. Multilevel linear regression models of anthropometric, T2D, and cardiovascular risk markers with sleep duration were adjusted for sex, age, month, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, observer (physical measures only), and random effect of school.

RESULTS

On average, children slept 10.5 hours per night (95% range 8.0-12.0 hours). There were strong inverse graded relationships between sleep duration, adiposity, and diabetes risk markers. In adjusted models, a 1-hour-longer sleep duration was associated with 0.19 lower BMI (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09 to 0.28), 0.03 kg/m⁵ lower fat mass index (95% CI 0.00 to 0.05 kg/m⁵), 2.9% lower homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (95% CI 1.2% to 4.4%), and 0.24% lower fasting glucose (95% CI 0.03% to 0.44%); there was no association with HbA1c or cardiovascular risk. Associations with insulin and glucose remained after an additional adjustment for adiposity markers.

CONCLUSIONS

The finding of an inverse association between sleep duration and T2D risk markers in childhood is novel. Intervention studies are needed to establish the causality of these associations, which could provide a simple strategy for early T2D prevention.

Screen time is associated with adiposity and insulin resistance in children

BACKGROUND

Higher screen time is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk in adults, but the association with T2D risk markers in children is unclear. We examined associations between self-reported screen time and T2D risk markers in children.

METHODS

Survey of 4495 children aged 9-10 years who had fasting cardiometabolic risk marker assessments, anthropometry measurements and reported daily screen time; objective physical activity was measured in a subset of 2031 children.

RESULTS

Compared with an hour or less screen time daily, those reporting screen time over 3 hours had higher ponderal index (1.9%, 95% CI 0.5% to 3.4%), skinfold thickness (4.5%, 0.2% to 8.8%), fat mass index (3.3%, 0.0% to 6.7%), leptin (9.2%, 1.1% to 18.0%) and insulin resistance (10.5%, 4.9% to 16.4%); associations with glucose, HbA1c, physical activity and cardiovascular risk markers were weak or absent. Associations with insulin resistance remained after adjustment for adiposity, socioeconomic markers and physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong graded associations between screen time, adiposity and insulin resistance suggest that reducing screen time could facilitate early T2D prevention. While these observations are of considerable public health interest, evidence from randomised controlled trials is needed to suggest causality.

Automated Diabetic Retinopathy Image Assessment Software: Diagnostic Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness Compared with Human Graders

OBJECTIVE

With the increasing prevalence of diabetes, annual screening for diabetic retinopathy (DR) by expert human grading of retinal images is challenging. Automated DR image assessment systems (ARIAS) may provide clinically effective and cost-effective detection of retinopathy. We aimed to determine whether ARIAS can be safely introduced into DR screening pathways to replace human graders.

DESIGN

Observational measurement comparison study of human graders following a national screening program for DR versus ARIAS.

PARTICIPANTS

Retinal images from 20 258 consecutive patients attending routine annual diabetic eye screening between June 1, 2012, and November 4, 2013.

METHODS

Retinal images were manually graded following a standard national protocol for DR screening and were processed by 3 ARIAS: iGradingM, Retmarker, and EyeArt. Discrepancies between manual grades and ARIAS results were sent to a reading center for arbitration.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Screening performance (sensitivity, false-positive rate) and diagnostic accuracy (95% confidence intervals of screening-performance measures) were determined. Economic analysis estimated the cost per appropriate screening outcome.

RESULTS

Sensitivity point estimates (95% confidence intervals) of the ARIAS were as follows: EyeArt 94.7% (94.2%-95.2%) for any retinopathy, 93.8% (92.9%-94.6%) for referable retinopathy (human graded as either ungradable, maculopathy, preproliferative, or proliferative), 99.6% (97.0%-99.9%) for proliferative retinopathy; Retmarker 73.0% (72.0 %-74.0%) for any retinopathy, 85.0% (83.6%-86.2%) for referable retinopathy, 97.9% (94.9%-99.1%) for proliferative retinopathy. iGradingM classified all images as either having disease or being ungradable. EyeArt and Retmarker saved costs compared with manual grading both as a replacement for initial human grading and as a filter prior to primary human grading, although the latter approach was less cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Retmarker and EyeArt systems achieved acceptable sensitivity for referable retinopathy when compared with that of human graders and had sufficient specificity to make them cost-effective alternatives to manual grading alone. ARIAS have the potential to reduce costs in developed-world health care economies and to aid delivery of DR screening in developing or remote health care settings.

Cohort profile: Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London: the ENABLE London-Olympic Park cohort

PURPOSE

The Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) project is a natural experiment which aims to establish whether physical activity and other health behaviours show sustained changes among individuals and families relocating to East Village (formerly the London 2012 Olympics Athletes' Village), when compared with a control population living outside East Village throughout.

PARTICIPANTS

Between January 2013 and December 2015, 1497 individuals from 1006 households were recruited and assessed (at baseline) (including 392 households seeking social housing, 421 seeking intermediate and 193 seeking market rent homes). The 2-year follow-up rate is 62% of households to date, of which 57% have moved to East Village.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Assessments of physical activity (measured objectively using accelerometers) combined with Global Positioning System technology and Geographic Information System mapping of the local area are being used to characterise physical activity patterns and location among study participants and assess the attributes of the environments to which they are exposed. Assessments of body composition, based on weight, height and bioelectrical impedance, have been made and detailed participant questionnaires provide information on socioeconomic position, general health/health status, well-being, anxiety, depression, attitudes to leisure time activities and other personal, social and environmental influences on physical activity, including the use of recreational space and facilities in their residential neighbourhood.

FUTURE PLANS

The main analyses will examine the changes in physical activity, health and well-being observed in the East Village group compared with controls and the influence of specific elements of the built environment on observed changes. The ENABLE London project exploits a unique opportunity to evaluate a 'natural experiment', provided by the building and rapid occupation of East Village. Findings from the study will be generalisable to other urban residential housing developments, and will help inform future evidence-based urban planning.

Cross-sectional study of ethnic differences in physical fitness among children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about levels of physical fitness in children from different ethnic groups in the UK. We therefore studied physical fitness in UK children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Primary schools in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

1625 children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin in the UK studied between 2006 and 2007.

OUTCOME MEASURES

A step test assessed submaximal physical fitness from which estimated VO2 max was derived. Ethnic differences in estimated VO2 max were estimated using multilevel linear regression allowing for clustering at school level and adjusting for age, sex and month as fixed effects.

RESULTS

The study response rate was 63%. In adjusted analyses, boys had higher levels of estimated VO2 max than girls (mean difference 3.06 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.47, p<0.0001). Levels of estimated VO2 max were lower in South Asians than those in white Europeans (mean difference -0.79 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI -1.41 to -0.18, p=0.01); levels of estimated VO2 max in black African-Caribbeans were higher than those in white Europeans (mean difference 0.60 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.17, p=0.04); these patterns were similar in boys and girls. The lower estimated VO2 max in South Asians, compared to white Europeans, was consistent among Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi children and was attenuated by 78% after adjustment for objectively measured physical activity (average daily steps).

CONCLUSIONS

South Asian children have lower levels of physical fitness than white Europeans and black African-Caribbeans in the UK. This ethnic difference in physical fitness is at least partly explained by ethnic differences in physical activity.

Fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes and plasma vitamin C: cross-sectional associations with insulin resistance and glycaemia in 9-10 year-old children

AIM

To examine whether low circulating vitamin C concentrations and low fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with insulin resistance and other Type 2 diabetes risk markers in childhood.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional, school-based study in 2025 UK children aged 9-10 years, predominantly of white European, South-Asian and black African origin. A 24-h dietary recall was used to assess fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes. Height, weight and fat mass were measured and a fasting blood sample collected to measure plasma vitamin C concentrations and Type 2 diabetes risk markers.

RESULTS

In analyses adjusting for confounding variables (including socio-economic status), a one interquartile range higher plasma vitamin C concentration (30.9 μmol/l) was associated with a 9.6% (95% CI 6.5, 12.6%) lower homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance value, 0.8% (95% CI 0.4, 1.2%) lower fasting glucose, 4.5% (95% CI 3.2, 5.9%) lower urate and 2.2% (95% CI 0.9, 3.4%) higher HDL cholesterol. HbA1c concentration was 0.6% (95% CI 0.2, 1.0%) higher. Dietary fruit, vegetable and total vitamin C intakes were not associated with any Type 2 diabetes risk markers. Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations in South-Asian and black African-Caribbean children could partly explain their higher insulin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations are associated with insulin resistance and could partly explain ethnic differences in insulin resistance. Experimental studies are needed to establish whether increasing plasma vitamin C can help prevent Type 2 diabetes at an early stage.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis: implications for aetiology and early prevention

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. 143 published articles (42 countries, 374 349 subjects aged 1–18 years, 74 847 myopia cases) were included. Increase in myopia prevalence with age varied by ethnicity. East Asians showed the highest prevalence, reaching 69% (95% credible intervals (CrI) 61% to 77%) at 15 years of age (86% among Singaporean-Chinese). Blacks in Africa had the lowest prevalence; 5.5% at 15 years (95% CrI 3% to 9%). Time trends in myopia prevalence over the last decade were small in whites, increased by 23% in East Asians, with a weaker increase among South Asians. Children from urban environments have 2.6 times the odds of myopia compared with those from rural environments. In whites and East Asians sex differences emerge at about 9 years of age; by late adolescence girls are twice as likely as boys to be myopic. Marked ethnic differences in age-specific prevalence of myopia exist. Rapid increases in myopia prevalence over time, particularly in East Asians, combined with a universally higher risk of myopia in urban settings, suggest that environmental factors play an important role in myopia development, which may offer scope for prevention.

Automated retinal vessel recognition and measurements on large datasets

The characteristics of the retinal vascular network have been prospectively associated with many systemic and vascular diseases. QUARTZ is a fully automated software that has been developed to localize and quantify the morphological characteristics of blood vessels in retinal images for use in epidemiological studies. This software was used to analyse a dataset containing 16,000 retinal images from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study. The objective of this paper is to both assess the suitability of this dataset for computational analysis and to further evaluate the QUARTZ software.

Inter-Relationship between Rhinitis and Conjunctivitis in Allergic Rhinoconjunctivitis and Associated Risk Factors in Rural UK Children

Objective

Allergic conjunctivitis (AC) is a common condition, especially in childhood. The extent to which it occurs concurrently with or independently from allergic rhinitis (AR) has not been well described.

Aim

To examine the inter-relationship between rhinitis and conjunctivitis and the epidemiological risk factors for these conditions in a rural UK population.

Methods

Cross-sectional study of rural school children (aged 5–11 years). Parental questionnaires were used to diagnose allergic outcomes (including conjunctivitis, rhinitis and rhinoconjunctivitis), and to collect data on atopic history, demographic and environmental exposures. Odds ratios of allergic outcome by exposure were examined adjusted for age, sex, breastfeeding, family history of allergy, number of older and younger siblings.

Results

Prevalence of conjunctivitis was 17.5%, rhinitis 15.1% and rhinoconjunctivitis 13.0%. Seasonality of symptoms varied by condition: 64.7% of those with conjunctivitis had seasonal symptoms (April-Sept only), 46.7% of those with rhinitis and 92.2% of those with rhinoconjunctivitis. Living on a farm consistently reduced the risk of conjunctivitis (odds ratio 0.47, 95%CI 0.29–0.79, p = 0.004), rhinitis (OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.33–1.01, p = 0.05) and rhinoconjunctivitis (OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.32–1.03, p = 0.06). Exposure to farm animals (particularly in early life), current consumption of unpasteurised milk and playing in a barn or stable significantly reduced the risk of all three conditions.

Conclusion

More children had parent-reported conjunctivitis than rhinitis. The majority of children with either condition also reported symptoms with the other condition. Farmers’ children have less eye and/or nasal symptoms. A number of farming variables linked with the farm microbial environment are likely to be mediating the protective effect.

Body mass index in early and middle adult life: prospective associations with myocardial infarction, stroke and diabetes over a 30-year period: the British Regional Heart Study

OBJECTIVES

Adiposity in middle age is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes; less is known about the impact of adiposity from early adult life. We examined the effects of high body mass index (BMI) in early and middle adulthood on myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and diabetes risks.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

7735 men with BMI measured in middle age (40-59 years) and BMI ascertained at 21 years from military records or participant recall.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

30-year follow-up data for type 2 diabetes, MI and stroke incidence; Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the effect of BMI at both ages on these outcomes, adjusted for age and smoking status.

RESULTS

Among 4846 (63%) men (with complete data), a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI at 21 years was associated with a 6% (95% CI 4% to 9%) higher type 2 diabetes risk, compared with a 21% (95% CI 18% to 24%) higher diabetes risk for a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI in middle age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.24). Higher BMI in middle age was associated with a 6% (95% CI 4% to 8%) increase in MI and a 4% (95% CI 1% to 7%) increase in stroke; BMI at 21 years showed no associations with MI or stroke risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher BMI at 21 years of age is associated with later diabetes incidence but not MI or stroke, while higher BMI in middle age is strongly associated with all outcomes. Early obesity prevention may reduce later type 2 diabetes risk, more than MI and stroke.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Systematic review of published population based surveys to examine the relationship between primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) prevalence and demographic factors. A literature search identified population-based studies with quantitative estimates of POAG prevalence (to October 2014). Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log-odds of POAG was used to examine the effect of age and gender among populations of different geographical and ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. Eighty-one studies were included (37 countries, 216 214 participants, 5266 POAG cases). Black populations showed highest POAG prevalence, with 5.2% (95% credible interval (CrI) 3.7%, 7.2%) at 60 years, rising to 12.2% (95% CrI 8.9% to 16.6%) at 80 years. Increase in POAG prevalence per decade of age was greatest among Hispanics (2.31, 95% CrI 2.12, 2.52) and White populations (1.99, 95% CrI 1.86, 2.12), and lowest in East and South Asians (1.48, 95% CrI 1.39, 1.57; 1.56, 95% CrI 1.31, 1.88, respectively). Men were more likely to have POAG than women (1.30, 95% CrI 1.22, 1.41). Older studies had lower POAG prevalence, which was related to the inclusion of intraocular pressure in the glaucoma definition. Studies with visual field data on all participants had a higher POAG prevalence than those with visual field data on a subset. Globally 57.5 million people (95% CI 46.4 to 73.1 million) were affected by POAG in 2015, rising to 65.5 million (95% CrI 52.8, 83.2 million) by 2020. This systematic review provides the most precise estimates of POAG prevalence and shows omitting routine visual field assessment in population surveys may have affected case ascertainment. Our findings will be useful to future studies and healthcare planning.

Incidence of Late-Stage Age-Related Macular Degeneration in American Whites: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To estimate incidence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by subtype in American whites aged ≥50 years.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

SETTING

Prospective cohort studies of AMD incidence in populations of white European ancestry published in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science.

STUDY POPULATION

Fourteen publications in 10 populations that examined AMD incident cases were identified.

OBSERVATION PROCEDURE

Data on age-sex-specific incidence of late AMD, geographic atrophy (GA) and neovascular AMD (NVAMD), year of recruitment, AMD grading method, and continent were extracted.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Annual incidence of late AMD, GA, and NVAMD by age-sex in American whites aged ≥50 years from a Bayesian meta-analysis of incidence studies was compared with incidence extrapolated from published prevalence estimates.

RESULTS

Incidence rates from the review agreed with those derived from prevalence, but the latter were based on more data, especially at older ages and by AMD subtypes. Annual incidence (estimated from prevalence) of late AMD in American whites was 3.5 per 1000 aged ≥50 years (95% credible interval 2.5, 4.7 per 1000), equivalent to 293 000 new cases in American whites per year (95% credible interval 207 000, 400 000). Incidence rates approximately quadrupled per decade in age. Annual incidence GA rates were 1.9 per 1000 aged ≥50 years, NVAMD rates were 1.8 per 1000. Late AMD incidence was 38% higher in women vs men (95% credible interval 6%, 82%).

CONCLUSIONS

Estimating AMD incidence from prevalence allows better characterization at older ages and by AMD subtype where longitudinal data from incidence studies are limited.

A study of whether automated Diabetic Retinopathy Image Assessment could replace manual grading steps in the English National Screening Programme

OBJECTIVES

Diabetic retinopathy screening in England involves labour intensive manual grading of digital retinal images. We present the plan for an observational retrospective study of whether automated systems could replace one or more steps of human grading.

METHODS

Patients aged 12 or older who attended the Diabetes Eye Screening programme, Homerton University Hospital (London) between 1 June 2012 and 4 November 2013 had macular and disc-centred retinal images taken. All screening episodes were manually graded and will additionally be graded by three automated systems. Each system will process all screening episodes, and screening performance (sensitivity, false positive rate, likelihood ratios) and diagnostic accuracy (95% confidence intervals of screening performance measures) will be quantified. A sub-set of gradings will be validated by an approved Reading Centre. Additional analyses will explore the effect of altering thresholds for disease detection within each automated system on screening performance.

RESULTS

2,782/20,258 diabetes patients were referred to ophthalmologists for further examination. Prevalence of maculopathy (M1), pre-proliferative retinopathy (R2), and proliferative retinopathy (R3) were 7.9%, 3.1% and 1.2%, respectively; 4749 (23%) patients were diagnosed with background retinopathy (R1); 1.5% were considered ungradable by human graders.

CONCLUSIONS

Retinopathy prevalence was similar to other English diabetic screening programmes, so findings should be generalizable. The study population size will allow the detection of differences in screening performance between the human and automated grading systems as small as 2%. The project will compare performance and economic costs of manual versus automated systems.

Birthweight and risk markers for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in childhood: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Lower birthweight (a marker of fetal undernutrition) is associated with higher risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and could explain ethnic differences in these diseases. We examined associations between birthweight and risk markers for diabetes and CVD in UK-resident white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean children.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study of risk markers for diabetes and CVD in 9- to 10-year-old children of different ethnic origins, birthweight was obtained from health records and/or parental recall. Associations between birthweight and risk markers were estimated using multilevel linear regression to account for clustering in children from the same school.

RESULTS

Key data were available for 3,744 (66%) singleton study participants. In analyses adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, birthweight was inversely associated with serum urate and positively associated with systolic BP. After additional height adjustment, lower birthweight (per 100 g) was associated with higher serum urate (0.52%; 95% CI 0.38, 0.66), fasting serum insulin (0.41%; 95% CI 0.08, 0.74), HbA1c (0.04%; 95% CI 0.00, 0.08), plasma glucose (0.06%; 95% CI 0.02, 0.10) and serum triacylglycerol (0.30%; 95% CI 0.09, 0.51) but not with BP or blood cholesterol. Birthweight was lower among children of South Asian (231 g lower; 95% CI 183, 280) and black African-Caribbean origin (81 g lower; 95% CI 30, 132). However, adjustment for birthweight had no effect on ethnic differences in risk markers.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Birthweight was inversely associated with urate and with insulin and glycaemia after adjustment for current height. Lower birthweight does not appear to explain emerging ethnic difference in risk markers for diabetes.

No evidence for genome-wide interactions on plasma fibrinogen by smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index: results from meta-analyses of 80,607 subjects

Plasma fibrinogen is an acute phase protein playing an important role in the blood coagulation cascade having strong associations with smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a variety of gene regions associated with elevated plasma fibrinogen concentrations. However, little is yet known about how associations between environmental factors and fibrinogen might be modified by genetic variation. Therefore, we conducted large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide interaction studies to identify possible interactions of genetic variants and smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI on fibrinogen concentration. The present study included 80,607 subjects of European ancestry from 22 studies. Genome-wide interaction analyses were performed separately in each study for about 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the 22 autosomal chromosomes. For each SNP and risk factor, we performed a linear regression under an additive genetic model including an interaction term between SNP and risk factor. Interaction estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed-effects model. No genome-wide significant interaction with smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI was observed in the meta-analyses. The most suggestive interaction was found for smoking and rs10519203, located in the LOC123688 region on chromosome 15, with a p value of 6.2×10⁻⁸. This large genome-wide interaction study including 80,607 participants found no strong evidence of interaction between genetic variants and smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI on fibrinogen concentrations. Further studies are needed to yield deeper insight in the interplay between environmental factors and gene variants on the regulation of fibrinogen concentrations.

Regular breakfast consumption and type 2 diabetes risk markers in 9- to 10-year-old children in the child heart and health study in England (CHASE): a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Regular breakfast consumption may protect against type 2 diabetes risk in adults but little is known about its influence on type 2 diabetes risk markers in children. We investigated the associations between breakfast consumption (frequency and content) and risk markers for type 2 diabetes (particularly insulin resistance and glycaemia) and cardiovascular disease in children.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cross-sectional study of 4,116 UK primary school children aged 9-10 years. Participants provided information on breakfast frequency, had measurements of body composition, and gave fasting blood samples for measurements of blood lipids, insulin, glucose, and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). A subgroup of 2,004 children also completed a 24-hour dietary recall. Among 4,116 children studied, 3,056 (74%) ate breakfast daily, 450 (11%) most days, 372 (9%) some days, and 238 (6%) not usually. Graded associations between breakfast frequency and risk markers were observed; children who reported not usually having breakfast had higher fasting insulin (percent difference 26.4%, 95% CI 16.6%-37.0%), insulin resistance (percent difference 26.7%, 95% CI 17.0%-37.2%), HbA1c (percent difference 1.2%, 95% CI 0.4%-2.0%), glucose (percent difference 1.0%, 95% CI 0.0%-2.0%), and urate (percent difference 6%, 95% CI 3%-10%) than those who reported having breakfast daily; these differences were little affected by adjustment for adiposity, socioeconomic status, and physical activity levels. When the higher levels of triglyceride, systolic blood pressure, and C-reactive protein for those who usually did not eat breakfast relative to those who ate breakfast daily were adjusted for adiposity, the differences were no longer significant. Children eating a high fibre cereal breakfast had lower insulin resistance than those eating other breakfast types (p for heterogeneity <0.01). Differences in nutrient intakes between breakfast frequency groups did not account for the differences in type 2 diabetes markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Children who ate breakfast daily, particularly a high fibre cereal breakfast, had a more favourable type 2 diabetes risk profile. Trials are needed to quantify the protective effect of breakfast on emerging type 2 diabetes risk. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.