Incidence and Determinants of Spontaneous Normalization of Subclinical Hypothyroidism in Older Adults

CONTEXT

With age, the prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism rises. However, incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization remain largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism.

DESIGN

Pooled data were used from the (1) pretrial population and (2) in-trial placebo group from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Untreated Older Adults With Subclinical Hypothyroidism Trial and Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age thyroid 80-plus thyroid trial).

SETTING

Community-dwelling 65+ adults with subclinical hypothyroidism from the Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

The pretrial population (N = 2335) consisted of older adults with biochemical subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥1 elevated TSH measurement (≥4.60 mIU/L) and a free T4 within the laboratory-specific reference range. Individuals with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥2 elevated TSH measurements ≥3 months apart, were randomized to levothyroxine/placebo, of which the in-trial placebo group (N = 361) was included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels and associations between participant characteristics and normalization.

RESULTS

In the pretrial phase, TSH levels normalized in 60.8% of participants in a median follow-up of 1 year. In the in-trial phase, levels normalized in 39.9% of participants after 1 year of follow-up. Younger age, female sex, lower initial TSH level, higher initial free T4 level, absence of thyroid peroxidase antibodies, and a follow-up measurement in summer were independent determinants for normalization.

CONCLUSION

Because TSH levels spontaneously normalized in a large proportion of older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (also after confirmation by repeat measurement), a third measurement may be recommended before considering treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01660126 and Netherlands Trial Register, NTR3851.

Cardiovascular disease and the risk of incident falls and mortality among adults aged ≥ 65 years presenting to the emergency department: a cohort study from national registry data in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Falls cause 58% of injury-related Emergency Department (ED) attendances. Previous research has highlighted the potential role of cardiovascular risk factors for falls. This study investigated the impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality.

METHODS

A matched cohort study design was employed using national registry data from 82,292 adults (33% male) aged ≥ 65 years living in Denmark who attended the ED in 2013. We compared age and gender matched ED attendees presenting with a fall versus another reason. The cohort was followed for three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality. The impact of falls-related CVDs was also examined.

RESULTS

Three-year incident falls was twofold higher among age and gender matched ED attendees aged ≥ 65 years presenting with a fall versus another reason at baseline. A presentation of falls with hip fracture had the highest percentage of incident falls in the 65-74 age group (22%) and the highest percentage mortality in all age groups (27-62%). CVD was not a significant factor in presenting with a fall at the ED, nor did it contribute significantly to the prediction of three-year incident falls. CVD was strongly associated with mortality risk among the ED fall group (RR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.67-1.97) and showed interactions with both age and fall history.

CONCLUSION

In this large study of adults aged ≥ 65 years attending the ED utilising data from national administrative registers in Denmark, we confirm that older adults attending the ED with a fall, including those with hip fracture, were at greatest risk for future falls. While CVD did not predict incident falls, it increased the risk of mortality in the three-year follow up with advancing age. This may be informative for the provision of care pathways for older adults attending the ED due to a fall.

The optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function defined by the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality.

METHODS

This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576.

FINDINGS

We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality.

INTERPRETATION

There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes.

FUNDING

None.

Machine learning models of healthcare expenditures predicting mortality: A cohort study of spousal bereaved Danish individuals

BACKGROUND

The ability to accurately predict survival in older adults is crucial as it guides clinical decision making. The added value of using health care usage for predicting mortality remains unexplored. The aim of this study was to investigate if temporal patterns of healthcare expenditures, can improve the predictive performance for mortality, in spousal bereaved older adults, next to other widely used sociodemographic variables.

METHODS

This is a population-based cohort study of 48,944 Danish citizens 65 years of age and older suffering bereavement within 2013-2016. Individuals were followed from date of spousal loss until death from all causes or 31st of December 2016, whichever came first. Healthcare expenditures were available on weekly basis for each person during the follow-up and used as predictors for mortality risk in Extreme Gradient Boosting models. The extent to which medical spending trajectories improved mortality predictions compared to models with sociodemographics, was assessed with respect to discrimination (AUC), overall prediction error (Brier score), calibration, and clinical benefit (decision curve analysis).

RESULTS

The AUC of age and sex for mortality the year after spousal loss was 70.8% [95% CI 68.8, 72.8]. The addition of sociodemographic variables led to an increase of AUC ranging from 0.9% to 3.1% but did not significantly reduce the overall prediction error. The AUC of the model combining the variables above plus medical spending usage was 80.8% [79.3, 82.4] also exhibiting smaller Brier score and better calibration. Overall, patterns of healthcare expenditures improved mortality predictions the most, also exhibiting the highest clinical benefit among the rest of the models.

CONCLUSION

Temporal patterns of medical spending have the potential to significantly improve our assessment on who is at high risk of dying after suffering spousal loss. The proposed methodology can assist in a more efficient risk profiling and prognosis of bereaved individuals.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study

BACKGROUND

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM_2.5 components are most relevant is unclear.

METHODS

We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM_2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM_2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM_2.5 mass.

RESULTS

Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

We present novel results of the relevance of different PM_2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.

Altered cardiovascular risk pattern of LDL cholesterol in older adults

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Elevated serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels at middle-age constitute a strong risk factor for later cardiovascular events. In older populations, however, LDL-C levels are no longer predictive of cardiovascular mortality or may even seem protective. Whether the altered risk pattern of LDL-C in old age reflects a causal mechanism or is due to confounding and bias is subject to debate. In this review, we briefly discuss the possible explanations for the altered risk pattern of LDL-C observed in old age.

RECENT FINDINGS

Using examples from the recent literature we illustrate how LDL-C levels 'lose' their predictive value as a cardiovascular risk factor in old age. We review three potential explanations for the changed cardiovascular risk pattern of LDL-C in older populations: survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification.

SUMMARY

The absent or protective effect of LDL-C on cardiovascular mortality in older populations found in observational studies might be explained by survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification. However, this does not necessarily preclude the possibility that (specific) cholesterol-lowering treatment could decrease the risk of morbidity and mortality. Placebo-controlled trials may importantly add to our understanding of who may benefit from lipid-lowering therapy or statins at an older age.

Sex differences in health care expenditures and mortality after spousal bereavement: A register-based Danish cohort study

BACKGROUND

Spousal bereavement is a life event that affects older people differently. We investigated the impact of spousal bereavement on medical expenditures and mortality in the general population, emphasizing on age and sex.

METHODS

Data are from a population-based, retrospective cohort study following 924,958 Danish citizens over the age of 65 years, within 2011-2016. Changes in health care expenditures in those who suffer bereavement were compared with time matched changes among those who did not. Mortality hazards were analysed with time to event analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 77,722 (~8.4%) individuals experienced bereavement, 65.8% being females. Among males, bereavement was associated with increase of expenditures the year after, that was 42 Euros per week (95% CI, 36 to 48) larger than the non-bereaved group. The corresponding increase for females was 35 Euros per week (95% CI, 30 to 40). The increase of mortality hazards was highest in the first year after bereavement, higher in males than females, in young old and almost absent in the oldest old. Compared with the reference, mortality the year after spousal loss was 70% higher (HR 1.70 [95% CI 1.40 to 2.08]) for males aged 65-69 years and remained elevated for a period of six years. Mortality for females aged 65-69 years was 27% higher in the first year (HR 1.27, [1.07 to 1.52]), normalizing thereafter.

CONCLUSION

Bereavement affects older people differently with younger males being most frail with limited recovery potential.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes: a systematic review and an individual participant data analysis of prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

Few prospective studies have assessed whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more likely to develop diabetes, with conflicting results. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and an individual participant data analysis of multiple prospective cohorts to investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of the literature in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to February 11, 2022. A two-stage individual participant data analysis was conducted to compare participants with subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism at baseline and the adjusted risk of developing diabetes at follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 61 178 adults from 18 studies, 49% were females, mean age was 58 years, and mean follow-up time was 8.2 years. At the last available follow-up, there was no association between subclinical hypothyroidism and incidence of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.17, I2 = 0%) or subclinical hyperthyroidism and incidence of diabetes (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.30, I2 = 0%), in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Time-to-event analysis showed similar results (hazard ratio for subclinical hypothyroidism: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.11; hazard ratio for subclinical hyperthyroidism: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.88-1.29). The results were robust in all sub-group and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the largest systematic review and individual participant data analysis to date investigating the prospective association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and diabetes. We did not find an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Our results do not support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Evidence is conflicting regarding whether an association exists between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. We therefore aimed to investigate whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more prone to develop diabetes in the long run as compared to euthyroid individuals. We included data from 18 international cohort studies with 61 178 adults and a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. We did not find an association between subclinical hypothyroidism or subclinical hyperthyroidism at baseline and incident diabetes at follow-up. Our results have clinical implications as they neither support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes nor treating them in the hope of preventing diabetes in the future.

Use of candles and risk of cardiovascular and respiratory events in a Danish cohort study

Burning candles at home emit small particles and gases that pollute indoor air. Exposure to fine particles in outdoor air has been convincingly linked to cardiovascular and respiratory events, while the associations with fine and ultrafine particles from candle burning remain unexplored. We examined the association between the use of candles and incident cardiovascular and respiratory events. We collected data on 6757 participants of the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank cohort recruited in 2009 and followed them up for the first hospital contact for incident cardiovascular and respiratory events until 2018. We investigated an association between the self-reported frequency of candle use in wintertime and cardiovascular and respiratory events, using Cox regression models adjusting for potential confounders. During follow-up, 1462 and 834 were admitted for cardiovascular and respiratory events, respectively. We found null associations between candle use and a hospital contact due to cardiovascular and respiratory events, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.11) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.18), respectively, among those using candles >4 times/week compared with <1 time/week. For cause-specific cardiovascular diseases, HRs were 1.10 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.43) for ischemic heart disease and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.77, 1.81) for myocardial infarction. For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, HR was 1.26 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.97). We found no statistically significant associations between candle use and the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory events. Studies with improved exposure assessments are warranted.

Bone geometry in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism upon levothyroxine therapy: A nested study within a randomized placebo controlled trial

The effect of levothyroxine (LT4) therapy for subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) on appendicular bone geometry and volumetric density has so far not been studied. In a nested study within the randomized, placebo-controlled Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Subclinical Hypothyroidism (TRUST) trial, we assessed the effect of LT4 therapy on bone geometry as measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT). In the TRUST trial, community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years with SHypo were randomized to LT4 with dose titration vs. placebo with mock titration. We analyzed data from participants enrolled at the TRUST site in Bern, Switzerland who had bone pQCT measured at baseline and at 1 to 2 years follow-up. The primary outcomes were the annual percentage changes of radius and tibia epi- and diaphysis bone geometry (total and cortical cross-sectional area (CSA) and cortical thickness), and of volumetric bone mineral density (bone mineral content (BMC) and total, trabecular and cortical volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD)). We performed linear regression of the annual percentage changes adjusted for sex, LT4 dose at randomization and muscle cross-sectional area. The 98 included participants had a mean age of 73.9 (±SD 5.4) years, 45.9% were women, and 12% had osteoporosis. They were randomized to placebo (n = 48) or LT4 (n = 50). Annual changes in BMC and vBMD were similar between placebo and LT4-treated groups, without significant difference in bone geometry or volumetric bone mineral density changes, neither at the diaphysis, nor at the epiphysis. For example, in the placebo group, epiphyseal BMC (radius) decreased by a mean 0.2% per year, with a similar decrease of 0.5% per year in the LT4 group (between-group difference in %ΔBMC 0.3, 95% CI -0.70 to 1.21, p = 0.91). Compared to placebo, LT4 therapy for an average 14 months had no significant effect on bone mass, bone geometry and volumetric density in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT01660126 (TRUST Thyroid trial) and NCT02491008 (Skeletal outcomes).

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study: Beyond mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, yet the evidence for other diseases remains limited.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution with mortality from diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma, acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), as well as mortality from all-natural and cardiorespiratory causes in the Danish nationwide administrative cohort.

METHODS

We followed all residents aged ≥ 30 years (3,083,227) in Denmark from 1 January 2000 until 31 December 2017. Annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone (warm season) were estimated using European-wide hybrid land-use regression models (100 m × 100 m) and assigned to baseline residential addresses. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between air pollution and mortality, accounting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. We additionally applied indirect adjustment for smoking and body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

During 47,023,454 person-years of follow-up, 803,881 people died from natural causes. Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 (mean: 12.4 µg/m³), NO₂ (20.3 µg/m³), and/or BC (1.0 × 10^-5/m) was statistically significantly associated with all studied mortality outcomes except CKD. A 5 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with higher mortality from all-natural causes (hazard ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.13), cardiovascular disease (1.09; 1.07-1.12), respiratory disease (1.11; 1.07-1.15), lung cancer (1.19; 1.15-1.24), diabetes (1.10; 1.04-1.16), dementia (1.05; 1.00-1.10), psychiatric disorders (1.38; 1.27-1.50), asthma (1.13; 0.94-1.36), and ALRI (1.14; 1.09-1.20). Associations with long-term exposure to ozone (mean: 80.2 µg/m³) were generally negative but became significantly positive for several endpoints in two-pollutant models. Generally, associations were attenuated but remained significant after indirect adjustment for smoking and BMI.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5, NO₂, and/or BC in Denmark were associated with mortality beyond cardiorespiratory diseases, including diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, asthma, and ALRI.

No Effect of Levothyroxine on Hemoglobin in Older Adults With Subclinical Hypothyroidism: Pooled Results From 2 Randomized Controlled Trials

CONTEXT

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and anemia are common disorders, and both have increasing prevalence with advancing age.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess whether levothyroxine treatment leads to a rise in hemoglobin levels in older persons with subclinical hypothyroidism.

METHODS

This preplanned combined analysis of 2 randomized controlled trials included community-dwelling persons aged 65 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism who were randomly assigned to levothyroxine or placebo treatment. The levothyroxine dose was periodically titrated aiming at thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level within the reference range, with mock titrations in the placebo group. The main outcome measure was the change in hemoglobin level after 12 months.

RESULTS

Analyses included 669 participants (placebo n = 337, levothyroxine n = 332) with a median age of 75 years (range, 65-97) and mean baseline hemoglobin of 13.8 ± 1.3 g/dL. Although levothyroxine treatment resulted in a reduction in TSH from baseline after 12 months of follow-up compared with placebo, the change in hemoglobin level was not different between the levothyroxine and the placebo groups (-0.03 g/dL [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.11]). Similar results were found in stratified analyses including sex, age, or TSH levels. No difference in change of hemoglobin levels after 12 months was identified in 69 participants with anemia at baseline (-0.33 g/dL [95% CI, -0.87 to 0.21]).

CONCLUSION

In persons aged 65 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism, treatment with levothyroxine does not lead to a rise in hemoglobin levels, regardless of the presence of anemia.

Do changes in frailty, physical functioning, and cognitive functioning predict mortality in old age? Results from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam

Background

The ability to accurately predict survival in older adults is crucial as it guides clinical decision making. The added value of using various health indicators as well as changes in these indicators for predicting mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether changes in health indicators such as frailty and physical performance improve mortality predictions in old age.

Methods

This is a population based prospective cohort study on 995 community-dwelling people aged 68–92 years from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam. Two measurements at a three-year interval (1995/1996 and 1998/1999) were available for the frailty index, frailty phenotype, grip strength, walking speed, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cox regression was used to analyze mortality risks associated with the current health status and changes in health, with mortality data up to 2017. The extent to which these health indicators improved mortality predictions compared to models with age and sex only was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

The AUC of age and sex for five-year mortality was 72.8% (95% CI 69.0 – 76.5) and was the lowest in the oldest old (age > 80.5 years). The added AUC of the current status of health indicators ranged from 0.7 to 3.3%. The added AUC of the three-year change was lower, ranging from -0.0 to 1.1%, whereas the added AUC of three-year change and current status combined was similar to current status alone, ranging from 0.6 to 3.2%. Across age, the added AUC of current status was highest in the oldest old, however there was no such pattern using three-year change. Overall, the frailty index appeared to improve mortality predictions the most, followed by the frailty phenotype, MMSE, grip strength, and walking speed.

Conclusions

Current health status improved mortality predictions better than changes in health. Its contribution was highest in the oldest old, but the added value to models with age and sex only was limited.

Polypharmacy occurrence and the related risk of premature death among older adults in Denmark: A nationwide register-based cohort study

Background

Polypharmacy, defined as the concurrent use of ≥5 medications, increases the risk of drug-drug and drug-disease interactions as well as non-adherence to drug therapy. This may have negative health consequences particularly among older adults due to age-related pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic changes. This study aims to uncover the occurrence of polypharmacy among older adults in Denmark and investigate how polypharmacy relates to mortality.

Method

This nationwide register-based study included 1,338,058 adults aged 65+ years between January 2013 and December 2017 in Denmark. Polypharmacy prevalence was measured at time of inclusion while incidence and the association between polypharmacy and mortality were measured over the five-year follow-up using Cox regression. In an attempt to adjust for confounding by indication, propensity scores with overlap weighting were introduced to the regression model.

Results

At time of inclusion, polypharmacy prevalence was 29% and over the five years follow-up, 47% of the remaining adults transitioned into polypharmacy. Identified risk factors included multimorbidity (2+ morbidities: HR = 3.51; 95% CI = 3.48–3.53), age (95+ years: HR = 2.85; 95% CI = 2.74–2.96), socioeconomic factors (Highest income quartile: HR = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.80–0.81), region of birth region (Non-western migrants: HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.75–0.79), marital status (Divorced: HR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.10–1.12) and year of inclusion (2017: HR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.19–1.22). Further analyses showed that polypharmacy involves many different drug cocktails with medication for the cardiovascular system (95%), blood and blood-forming organs (69%), alimentary tract and metabolism (61%) and nervous system (54%) contributing the most. After adjustment for propensity scores with OW, both polypharmacy (HR = 3.48, CI95% = 3.41–3.54) and excessive polypharmacy (HR = 3.48, CI95% = 3.43–3.53) increased the risk of death substantially.

Conclusion

A considerable proportion of older adults in Denmark were exposed to polypharmacy dependent on health status, socio-economic status, and societal factors. The associated three- to four-fold mortality risk indicate a need for further exploration of the appropriateness of polypharmacy among older adults.

Meeting Report: Aging Research and Drug Discovery

Aging is the single largest risk factor for most chronic diseases, and thus possesses large socioeconomic interest to continuously aging societies. Consequently, the field of aging research is expanding alongside a growing focus from the industry and investors in aging research. This year’s 8th Annual Aging Research and Drug Discovery (ARDD) meeting was organized as a hybrid meeting from August 30th to September 3rd 2021 with more than 130 attendees participating on-site at the Ceremonial Hall at University of Copenhagen, Denmark, and 1800 engaging online. The conference comprised of presentations from 75 speakers focusing on new research in topics including mechanisms of aging and how these can be modulated as well as the use of AI and new standards of practices within aging research. This year, a longevity workshop was included to build stronger connections with the clinical community.

Incorporating Baseline Outcome Data in Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Non-randomized Studies

BACKGROUND

In non-randomized studies (NRSs) where a continuous outcome variable (e.g., depressive symptoms) is assessed at baseline and follow-up, it is common to observe imbalance of the baseline values between the treatment/exposure group and control group. This may bias the study and consequently a meta-analysis (MA) estimate. These estimates may differ across statistical methods used to deal with this issue. Analysis of individual participant data (IPD) allows standardization of methods across studies. We aimed to identify methods used in published IPD-MAs of NRSs for continuous outcomes, and to compare different methods to account for baseline values of outcome variables in IPD-MA of NRSs using two empirical examples from the Thyroid Studies Collaboration (TSC).

METHODS

For the first aim we systematically searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane from inception to February 2021 to identify published IPD-MAs of NRSs that adjusted for baseline outcome measures in the analysis of continuous outcomes. For the second aim, we applied analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), change score, propensity score and the naïve approach (ignores the baseline outcome data) in IPD-MA from NRSs on the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and depressive symptoms and renal function. We estimated the study and meta-analytic mean difference (MD) and relative standard error (SE). We used both fixed- and random-effects MA.

RESULTS

Ten of 18 (56%) of the included studies used the change score method, seven (39%) studies used ANCOVA and one the propensity score (5%). The study estimates were similar across the methods in studies in which groups were balanced at baseline with regard to outcome variables but differed in studies with baseline imbalance. In our empirical examples, ANCOVA and change score showed study results on the same direction, not the propensity score. In our applications, ANCOVA provided more precise estimates, both at study and meta-analytical level, in comparison to other methods. Heterogeneity was higher when change score was used as outcome, moderate for ANCOVA and null with the propensity score.

CONCLUSION

ANCOVA provided the most precise estimates at both study and meta-analytic level and thus seems preferable in the meta-analysis of IPD from non-randomized studies. For the studies that were well-balanced between groups, change score, and ANCOVA performed similarly.

Association of Thyroid Dysfunction With Cognitive Function: An Individual Participant Data Analysis

IMPORTANCE

In clinical guidelines, overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction are mentioned as causal and treatable factors for cognitive decline. However, the scientific literature on these associations shows inconsistent findings.

OBJECTIVE

To assess cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of baseline thyroid dysfunction with cognitive function and dementia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicohort individual participant data analysis assessed 114 267 person-years (median, 1.7-11.3 years) of follow-up for cognitive function and 525 222 person-years (median, 3.8-15.3 years) for dementia between 1989 and 2017. Analyses on cognitive function included 21 cohorts comprising 38 144 participants. Analyses on dementia included eight cohorts with a total of 2033 cases with dementia and 44 573 controls. Data analysis was performed from December 2016 to January 2021.

EXPOSURES

Thyroid function was classified as overt hyperthyroidism, subclinical hyperthyroidism, euthyroidism, subclinical hypothyroidism, and overt hypothyroidism based on uniform thyrotropin cutoff values and study-specific free thyroxine values.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was global cognitive function, mostly measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Executive function, memory, and dementia were secondary outcomes. Analyses were first performed at study level using multivariable linear regression and multivariable Cox regression, respectively. The studies were combined with restricted maximum likelihood meta-analysis. To overcome the use of different scales, results were transformed to standardized mean differences. For incident dementia, hazard ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

Among 74 565 total participants, 66 567 (89.3%) participants had normal thyroid function, 577 (0.8%) had overt hyperthyroidism, 2557 (3.4%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism, 4167 (5.6%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 697 (0.9%) had overt hypothyroidism. The study-specific median age at baseline varied from 57 to 93 years; 42 847 (57.5%) participants were women. Thyroid dysfunction was not associated with global cognitive function; the largest differences were observed between overt hypothyroidism and euthyroidism-cross-sectionally (-0.06 standardized mean difference in score; 95% CI, -0.20 to 0.08; P = .40) and longitudinally (0.11 standardized mean difference higher decline per year; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.23; P = .09). No consistent associations were observed between thyroid dysfunction and executive function, memory, or risk of dementia.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this individual participant data analysis of more than 74 000 adults, subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were not associated with cognitive function, cognitive decline, or incident dementia. No rigorous conclusions can be drawn regarding the role of overt thyroid dysfunction in risk of dementia. These findings do not support the practice of screening for subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the context of cognitive decline in older adults as recommended in current guidelines.

Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution, Road Traffic Noise, and Heart Failure Incidence: The Danish Nurse Cohort

Background We examined the association of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with incident heart failure (HF). Methods And Results Using data on female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (aged >44 years), we investigated associations between 3-year mean exposures to air pollution and road traffic noise and incident HF using Cox regression models, adjusting for relevant confounders. Incidence of HF was defined as the first hospital contact (inpatient, outpatient, or emergency) between cohort baseline (1993 or 1999) and December 31, 2014, based on the Danish National Patient Register. Annual mean levels of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm since 1990 and NO₂ and road traffic noise since 1970 were estimated at participants' residences. Of the 22 189 nurses, 484 developed HF. We detected associations with all 3 pollutants, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36), 1.10 (95% CI, 0.99-1.22), and 1.12 (95% CI, 0.99-1.26) per increase of 5.1 µg/m³ in particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm, 8.6 µg/m³ in NO₂, and 9.3 dB in road traffic noise, respectively. We observed an enhanced risk of HF incidence for those exposed to high levels of the 3 pollutants; however, the effect modification of coexposure was not statistically significant. Former smokers and nurses with hypertension showed the strongest associations with particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm (P_{effect modification}<0.05). Conclusions We found that long-term exposures to air pollution and road traffic noise were independently associated with HF.

Tipping Points - Do the Prognostic Values of Multimorbidity and Functional Status Vary with Age?

Aging of the population is a pressing challenge for healthcare systems and knowledge of a patient’s prognosis is a key to shaping effective interventions. As the prevalence of multimorbidity strongly increases with age, the prognostic value of multiple disease diagnoses for survival among older people may diminish, whereas other measures of health, such as functional status (defined as a measure of an individual’s ability to perform activities of daily living), may become more important. In this commentary, the impact of age on the prognostic value of multimorbidity is discussed, with the aim of identifying relevant alternative risk indicators for different age groups. The key question is to determine at what age the prognostic value of multimorbidity for meaningful clinical outcomes decreases and is overridden by the prognostic value of functional status. This tipping point likely depends on age, calendar time, and birth cohort. The public health and clinical implications of these tipping points are important. Among younger and middle-aged persons, interventions could be directed towards prevention and treatment of specific diseases, while among older persons efforts should focus more on improving functional levels that include physical, emotional, and social dimensions.

The plasticity of late-onset dementia: A nationwide cohort study in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

The determinants of the secular decline in the incidence of dementia are not clear. The aim of this study was to investigate the influences of four factors-education, wealth, cerebrovascular health, and general health-on the secular decline.

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥65 years in Denmark from 2005 through 2018 (N = 1,757,168). Annual incidence rates of dementia and population attributable risks of the four factors were calculated and birth cohort trends were examined.

RESULTS

The incidence of dementia declined by 22.5% in men and 34.2% in women from 2005 through 2018. Population attributable risks of lower education, lower wealth, and stroke likewise declined. Independent of these improvements, the incidence of dementia fell across successive birth cohorts.

DISCUSSION

Most of the observed plasticity in late-onset dementia is associated with a risk decline across successive birth cohorts that is independent of improvements in traditional risk factors.

Familial longevity is associated with lower baseline bone turnover but not differences in bone turnover in response to rhTSH

Context: Offspring from long-lived families have a different thyroid status than controls, characterised by higher circulating levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and similar levels of thyroid hormone. Expression of the TSH receptor has previously been observed on various extrathyroidal tissues, including bone. However, potential physiological consequences of differences in circulating TSH as observed in familial longevity on bone tissue remain unclear.

Objective: Based on the hypothesis that TSH may inhibit bone resorption, we explored whether offspring of long-lived families have lower bone turnover than controls at baseline as well as following a challenge with recombinant human TSH (rhTSH).

Methods: Bone turnover markers CTX and P1NP were measured in fasted morning samples from 14 offspring and 12 controls at baseline and at 24 hour intervals following 0.1 mg rhTSH i.m. administration for four consecutive days.

Results: At baseline, mean (SEM) CTX was 0.32 (0.03) ng/ml in offspring and 0.50 (0.04) ng/ml in controls, p < 0.01, whereas mean (SEM) P1NP was 39.6 (3.2) ng/ml in offspring and 61.8 (6.6) ng/ml in controls, p < 0.01. Following rhTSH administration, both CTX and P1NP levels transiently increased over time and normalized towards baseline after 72 h (general linear modelling: CTX time p = 0.01, P1NP time p < 0.01); the response was similar between offspring and controls.

Conclusions: Bone turnover markers were lower at baseline in offspring from long-lived families than in controls but increased similarly following an rhTSH challenge.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and road traffic noise and asthma incidence in adults: The Danish Nurse cohort

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution is likely a risk factor for asthma, and recent evidence suggests the possible relevance of road traffic noise.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with adult-asthma incidence.

METHODS

We followed 28,731 female nurses (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, recruited in 1993 and 1999, for first hospital contact for asthma from 1977 until 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 with the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 with the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to associate air pollution and road traffic noise exposure with asthma incidence.

RESULTS

During 18.6 years' mean follow-up, 528 out of 23,093 participants had hospital contact for asthma. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for asthma incidence associated with 3-year moving average exposures were 1.29 (1.03, 1.61) per 6.3 µg/m³ for PM_2.5, 1.16 (1.07, 1.27) per 8.2 µg/m³ for NO₂, and 1.12 (1.00, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. The HR for NO₂ remained unchanged after adjustment for either PM_2.5 or L_den, while the HRs for PM_2.5 and L_den attenuated to unity after adjustment for NO₂.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with adult-asthma incidence independently of road traffic noise, with NO₂ most relevant. Road traffic noise was not independently associated with adult-asthma incidence.

Long-term air pollution and road traffic noise exposure and COPD: the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

While air pollution has been linked to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), evidence on the role of environmental noise is just emerging. We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

METHODS

We defined COPD incidence for 24 538 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (age>44 years) as the first hospital contact between baseline (1993 or 1999) and 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter<2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 by the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 by the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were applied to assess the associations of air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

RESULTS

977 nurses developed COPD during 18.6 years' mean follow-up. We observed associations with COPD for all three exposures with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.19 (1.01, 1.41) per 6.26 µg·m^-3 for PM_2.5, 1.13 (1.05, 1.20) per 8.19 µg·m^-3 for NO₂, and 1.15 (1.06, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. Associations with NO₂ and L_den attenuated slightly after mutual adjustment, but were robust to adjustment for PM_2.5. Associations with PM_2.5 were attenuated to null after adjustment for either NO₂ or L_den. No potential interaction effect was observed between air pollutants and noise.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially traffic-related NO₂, and road traffic noise were independently associated with COPD.

Neurovascular-glymphatic dysfunction and white matter lesions

Cerebral white matter lesions (WML) represent a spectrum of age-related structural changes that are identified as areas of white matter high signal intensity on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Preservation of white matter requires proper functioning of both the cerebrovascular and glymphatic systems. The cerebrovascular safeguards adequate cerebral blood flow to supply oxygen, energy, and nutrients through a dynamic process of cerebral autoregulation and neurovascular coupling to keep up with global and regional demands of the brain. The glymphatic system maintains white matter integrity by preserving flow of interstitial fluid, exchanging metabolic waste and eventually its clearance into the venous circulation. Here, we argue that these two systems should not be considered separate entities but as one single physiologically integrated unit to preserve brain health. Due to the process of aging, damage to the neurovascular-glymphatic system accumulates over the life course. It is an insidious process that ultimately leads to the disruption of cerebral autoregulation, to the neurovascular uncoupling, and to the accumulation of metabolic waste products. As cerebral white matter is particularly vulnerable to hypoxic, inflammatory, and metabolic insults, WML are the first recognized pathologies of neurovascular-glymphatic dysfunction. A better understanding of the underlying pathophysiology will provide starting points for developing effective strategies to prevent a wide range of clinical disorders among which there are gait disturbances, functional dependence, cognitive impairment, and dementia.

Differential effects of colorectal cancer screening across sociodemographic groups in Denmark: a register-based study

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) does not affect different sociodemographic groups uniformly. CRC screening programmes could seek to reduce this inequality; however, the screening programmes themselves might be subject to differential participation across sociodemographic groups. This study investigates the sociodemographic inequality at all steps in Denmark's nationwide CRC screening programme: screening participation, faecal immunochemical test (FIT) results, colonoscopy compliance, CRC diagnosis, and cancer stage.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cohort study includes all first-time invitees from the beginning of the Danish population-based CRC screening programme from 1 March 2014 to 31 December 2017.

RESULTS

Sixty-four percent of the invitees participated in the screening programme, and of those 7% were FIT-positive. After being invited to further diagnostic procedures, 90% responded to the invitation, and among those 5% were CRC-positive. Among those diagnosed with CRC, 9% were stage IV. Through multivariable analyses, we identified sociodemographic inequalities in all steps of the screening programme from returning a stool sample to being diagnosed with CRC. Specifically, we identified inequalities across sex, age, migration status, relationship status, the screening status of one's partner, education, income, and use of health services. Women were more likely to participate compared to men (RR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.12-1.13), but had a lower risk of a positive FIT result (RR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.66-0.68) and of a CRC diagnosis (RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.82-0.93) compared to men. The likelihood of participating as well as the risk of positive FIT results and CRC diagnosis increased with age.

CONCLUSION

All steps of the screening programme were subject to sociodemographic inequalities. Interventions are needed to target groups identified as having lower uptake as well as high-risk of being FIT- and/or CRC-positive. These groups include males, individuals aged 60+ years and individuals who do not visit their GP regularly.

Associations of Cytomegalovirus Infection With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Multiple Observational Cohort Studies of Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Whether latent cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in older adults has any substantial health consequences is unclear. Here, we sought associations between CMV-seropositivity and IgG titer with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 5 longitudinal cohorts.

METHODS

Leiden Longevity Study, Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk, Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins, and Leiden 85-plus Study were assessed at median (2.8-11.4 years) follow-up . Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis were used to estimate mortality risk dependent on CMV serostatus and/or IgG antibody titer, in quartiles after adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

CMV-seropositivity was seen in 47%-79% of 10 122 white community-dwelling adults aged 59-93 years. Of these, 3519 had died on follow-up (579 from cardiovascular disease). CMV seropositivity was not associated with all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], .97-1.14) or cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, .83-1.13). Subjects in the highest CMV IgG quartile group had increased all-cause mortality relative to CMV-seronegatives (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.29) but this association lost significance after adjustment for confounders (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, .99-1.29). The lack of increased mortality risk was confirmed in subanalyses.

CONCLUSIONS

CMV infection is not associated with all-cause or cardiovascular mortality in white community-dwelling older adults.

Reablement through time and space: a scoping review of how the concept of 'reablement' for older people has been defined and operationalised

BACKGROUND

While the field of rehabilitation has determined a common definition of professional practice, legislators and healthcare professionals in various Western countries have struggled to reach consensus about how the newer offer of 'reablement' should be organised, operationalised, and understood as a health service for older adults. International research indicates that there is confusion, ambiguity, and disagreement about the terminology and the structure of these programmes, and they may not be adequately supporting older people's self-identified goals. Could an analysis of the concept's genealogy illuminate how reablement can be more effective and beneficial in theory and in practice?

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative and quantitative scoping review to determine how reablement has developed through time and space. Eligible articles (N=86) had to focus on any of the defined features of current reablement programmes; there were no restrictions on study designs or publication dates. In articles published from 1947 to 2019, we identified themes and patterns, commonalities, and differences in how various countries described and defined reablement. We also performed an analysis using computer software to construct and visualise term maps based on significant words extracted from the article abstracts.

RESULTS

The fundamental principles of reablement have a long history. However, these programmes have undergone a widespread expansion since the mid-2000s with an intention to reduce costs related to providing long-term care services and in-home assistance to growing older populations. Despite theoretical aspirations to offer person-centred and goal-directed reablement, few countries have been able to implement programmes that adequately promote older people's goals, social involvement, or participation in their local community in a safe, culturally sensitive and adaptable way.

CONCLUSIONS

Reablement is meant to support older people in attaining their self-defined goals to be both more physically independent at home and socially involved in their communities. However, until legislators, health professionals, and older people can collectively reach consensus about how person-centred reablement can be more effectively implemented and supported in professional home-care practice, it will be difficult to determine a conceptual description of reablement as a service that is unique, separate, and distinct from standard rehabilitation.

Levothyroxine Treatment and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Older People With Subclinical Hypothyroidism: Pooled Individual Results of Two Randomised Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

The cardiovascular effects of treating older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) are uncertain. Although concerns have been raised regarding a potential increase in cardiovascular side effects from thyroid hormone replacement, undertreatment may also increase the risk of cardiovascular events, especially for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD).

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effects of levothyroxine treatment on cardiovascular outcomes in older adults with SCH.

METHODS

Combined data of two parallel randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trials TRUST (Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism - a randomised placebo controlled Trial) and IEMO80+ (the Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age 80-plus thyroid trial) were analysed as one-stage individual participant data. Participants aged ≥65 years for TRUST (n=737) and ≥80 years for IEMO80+ (n=105) with SCH, defined by elevated TSH with fT4 within the reference range, were included. Participants were randomly assigned to receive placebo or levothyroxine, with titration of the dose until TSH level was within the reference range. Cardiovascular events and cardiovascular side effects of overtreatment (new-onset atrial fibrillation and heart failure) were investigated, including stratified analyses according to CVD history and age.

RESULTS

The median [IQR] age was 75.0 [69.7-81.1] years, and 448 participants (53.2%) were women. The mean TSH was 6.38± SD 5.7 mIU/L at baseline and decreased at 1 year to 5.66 ± 3.3 mIU/L in the placebo group, compared with 3.66 ± 2.1 mIU/L in the levothyroxine group (p<0.001), at a median dose of 50 μg. Levothyroxine did not significantly change the risk of any of the prespecified cardiovascular outcomes, including cardiovascular events (HR 0.74 [0.41-1.25]), atrial fibrillation (HR 0.69 [0.32-1.52]), or heart failure (0.41 [0.13-1.35]), or all-cause mortality (HR 1.28 [0.54-3.03]), irrespective of history of CVD and age.

CONCLUSION

Treatment with levothyroxine did not significantly change the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism, irrespective of a history of cardiovascular disease and age.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

[ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT01660126] (TRUST); Netherlands Trial Register: NTR3851 (IEMO80+).

Night work and incidence of Parkinson's disease in the Danish Nurse Cohort

OBJECTIVES

Evidence on the association between night work and Parkinson's disease (PD) is sparse and conflicting, calling for more definitive studies.

METHODS

We included 20 138 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort without PD who at baseline in 1993 and/or 1999 reported their most common current work schedule (day, evening, night, and rotating (a combination of at least two of these)), including information on lifetime cumulative duration (years) of each shift in a 2009 follow-up survey. We obtained information on PD hospital contacts and PD medication until November 2018 via linkage to the Danish National Patient (inpatient from 1977 and outpatient contacts from 1995 onwards) and Prescription Registers starting in 1995. We defined the incidence of PD as the first-ever hospital contact due to PD, or the first-ever redeemed levodopa prescription, whichever came first. We used Cox regression models to calculate HRs and 95% CIs, adjusting for age, smoking status, coffee consumption and use of hormone replacement therapy.

RESULTS

We found no significant difference in PD risk among nurses who reported working evening (HR=0.86; 95% CI=0.55 to 1.34), night (HR=1.26; 95% CI=0.79 to 2.02) or rotating shifts (HR=0.83; 95% CI=0.56 to 1.21) at cohort baseline in 1993 or 1999, when compared with permanent day workers. Similarly, persistency of shift work (working the same work schedule for 6+ years) or duration of shift work was not associated with PD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, there was little evidence for an association between various shift work schedules including night work and PD in this cohort of middle-aged female nurses.

Onset of Workplace Bullying and Risk of Weight Gain: A Multicohort Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the onset of workplace bullying as a risk factor for BMI increase.

METHODS

Repeated biennial survey data from three Nordic cohort studies were used, totaling 46,148 participants (67,337 participant observations) aged between 18 and 65 who did not have obesity and who were not bullied at the baseline. Multinomial logistic regression was applied for the analysis under the framework of generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Five percent reported onset of workplace bullying within 2 years from the baseline. In confounder-adjusted models, onset of workplace bullying was associated with a higher risk of weight gain of ≥ 1 BMI unit (odds ratio = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01-1.19) and of ≥ 2.5 BMI units (odds ratio = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06-1.45). A dose-response pattern was observed, and those exposed to workplace bullying more frequently showed a higher risk (P_trend  = 0.04). The association was robust to adjustments, restrictions, stratifications, and use of relative/absolute scales for BMI change.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants with exposure to the onset of workplace bullying were more likely to gain weight, a possible pathway linking workplace bullying to increased long-term risk of type 2 diabetes.

Perceived stress and dementia: Results from the Copenhagen city heart study

Objectives: We investigated if perceived stress in midlife increased the risk of dementia. Furthermore, we explored differences between subgroups related to sex, age and employment status when reporting stress.Methods: In this longitudinal study, we used information on perceived stress from 10,814 participants (mean age 56.7 years). Participants were followed through Danish national registers for development of dementia. Participants were considered at risk of dementia from the date they turned 60 years. Perceived stress was assessed as a combination of self-reported intensity and frequency of stress, and categorized into low (score 0-1), medium (score 2-4), and high stress (score 5-6). We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) and adjusted for sociodemographic factors and psychiatric morbidity at baseline (main model) as well as cardio/cerebrovascular diseases and health behaviors at baseline (additional model).Results: The mean follow-up time was 13.8 years, and 1,519 participants were registered with dementia. Dementia risk was higher in participants reporting medium stress (IRR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.99-1.24) and high stress (IRR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.13-1.65). Adjustment for cardio/cerebrovascular diseases and health behaviors did not alter the results. We did not find strong support for differences between subgroups, although the association between stress and dementia was stronger for those who were employed at the time of reporting high stress.Conclusion: Our results provide empirical support for an effect of perceived stress on the risk of dementia in old age.

Do we know the effects of colorectal cancer screening? A short communication on selective uptake and differential effects of colorectal cancer screening in Scandinavia

Colorectal cancer (CRC) contributes extensively to the overall cancer burden, with substantial and increasing social inequality in both incidence and survival. In several countries, this social inequality in incidence and survival has been increasing over time, and the increase is expected to continue. To overcome this, it is advised to implement nationwide CRC screening programmes, as these are effective in detecting possible signs of CRC, hence identifying earlier-stage cancer and reducing mortality. However, little is known about the distribution of these effects across population groups. It is possible that the outcomes of CRC screening are not equally distributed among participants, but rather that the screening programme serves some population groups better than others. The aim of this short communication based on published data is to describe the status of selective uptake according to sociodemographic and economic factors in CRC screening in Scandinavia. Furthermore, we raise questions that need to be addressed in future research in order to grasp the full effects of the screening programme and ultimately to ensure high uptake as well as participation in subsequent diagnostic procedures across population groups.

Circulating Thyroid Hormone Profile in Response to a Triiodothyronine Challenge in Familial Longevity

Context

Familial longevity is associated with higher circulating levels of thyrotropin (TSH), in the absence of differences in circulating thyroid hormones, and a lower thyroid responsivity to TSH, as previously observed in the Leiden Longevity Study (LLS). Further mechanisms underlying these observations remain unknown.

Objective

We hypothesized that members from long-lived families (offspring) have higher thyroid hormone turnover or less negative feedback effect on TSH secretion compared to controls.

Methods

In a case-control intervention study, 14 offspring and 13 similarly aged controls received 100 µg 3,5,3′-triiodothyronine (T3) orally. Their circulating T3, free T3 (fT3), and TSH levels were measured during 5 consecutive days. We compared profiles of circulating T3, fT3, and TSH between offspring and controls using general linear modeling (GLM) and calculated the percentage decline in TSH following T3 administration.

Results

Circulating T3 and fT3 levels increased to supraphysiologic values and normalized over the course of 5 days. There were no serious adverse events. T3 and fT3 concentration profiles over 5 days were similar between offspring and controls (T3 GLM P = .11, fT3 GLM P = .46). TSH levels decreased in a biphasic manner and started returning to baseline by day 5. The TSH concentration profile over 5 days was similar between offspring and controls (GLM P = .08), as was the relative TSH decline (%).

Conclusions

Members of long-lived families have neither higher T3 turnover nor diminished negative feedback of T3 on TSH secretion. The cause and biological role of elevated TSH levels in familial longevity remain to be elucidated.

Shift work and incidence of dementia: A Danish Nurse Cohort study

INTRODUCTION

A few studies suggest that working night and rotating shifts increase the risk of dementia. We examined the association between shift work and the incidence of dementia in a cohort of female Danish nurses.

METHODS

We linked Danish Nurse Cohort participants, who reported work schedules (day, evening, night, rotating shifts) in 1993 and/or 1999 and their duration in 2009, to Danish registers to obtain information on dementia hospitalizations and prescription medication until November 2018.

RESULTS

Among 6048 nurses who reported work schedules in 1993 and 1999, nurses working night shifts ≥6 years had higher dementia incidence (hazard ratio: 2.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.39 to 4.23) than those working day shifts ≥6 years. Among 8059 nurses who reported shift work duration, nurses working night shifts ≥6 years had higher dementia incidence than those working night shifts <1 year (1.47, 1.06 to 2.06).

DISCUSSION

Persistent night shift work may increase the risk of dementia.

Familial Longevity is Associated with an Attenuated Thyroidal Response to Recombinant Human Thyroid Stimulating Hormone

CONTEXT

Longevity is associated with higher circulating levels of TSH in the absence of differences in circulating thyroid hormones (TH), as previously observed in F2 members of long-lived families (F2-LLS) and their partners (F2-Con). The mechanism underlying this observed difference remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We hypothesized that the thyroid gland of members from long-lived families are less responsive to TSH stimulation, thereby requiring higher circulating TSH levels to maintain adequate TH levels.

METHODS

We performed a case-control intervention study with a single intramuscular (gluteal) injection with 0.1 mg recombinant human TSH in a subgroup of 14 F2-LLS and 15 similarly aged F2-Con. They were followed for 4 days. No serious adverse events were reported. For analyses, we compared time trajectories of TSH and TH, and the ratio of TH to TSH using area under the curve (AUC) calculations.

RESULTS

The AUC free T4/AUC TSH ratio was significantly lower in F2-LLS than in F2-Con (estimated mean [95% confidence interval] 1.6 [1.2-1.9] and 2.2 [1.9-2.6], respectively, P = 0.01). The AUC thyroglobulin/AUC TSH ratio was also lower in F2-LLS than in F2-Con (median [interquartile range] 2.1 [1.4-3.6] and 3.2 [2.7-7.4], respectively, P = 0.04). We observed the same trend with the AUC free T3/AUC TSH ratio, although the difference was not statistically significant (estimated mean [95% confidence interval] 0.6 [0.4-0.7] and 0.7 [0.6-0.8], respectively, P = 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings show that members of long-living families have a lower thyroid responsivity to TSH compared with their partners.

Interrelationships Between Pituitary Hormones as Assessed From 24-hour Serum Concentrations in Healthy Older Subjects

CONTEXT

Hormones of the hypothalamic-pituitary-target gland axes are mostly investigated separately, whereas the interplay between hormones might be as important as each separate hormonal axis.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim is to determine the interrelationships between GH, TSH, ACTH, and cortisol in healthy older individuals.

DESIGN

We made use of 24-hour hormone serum concentrations assessed with intervals of 10 minutes from 38 healthy older individuals with a mean age (SD) of 65.1 (5.1) years from the Leiden Longevity Study. Cross-correlation analyses were performed to assess the relative strength between 2 24-hour hormone serum concentration series for all possible time shifts. Cross-approximate entropy was used to assess pattern synchronicity between 2 24-hour hormone serum concentration series.

RESULTS

Within an interlinked hormonal axis, ACTH and cortisol were positively correlated with a mean (95% confidence interval) correlation coefficient of 0.78 (0.74-0.81) with cortisol following ACTH concentrations with a delay of 10 minutes. Between different hormonal axes, we observed a negative correlation coefficient between cortisol and TSH of -0.30 (-0.36 to -0.25) with TSH following cortisol concentrations with a delay of 170 minutes. Furthermore, a positive mean (95% confidence interval) correlation coefficient of 0.29 (0.22-0.37) was found between TSH and GH concentrations without any delay. Moreover, cross-approximate entropy analyses showed that GH and cortisol exhibit synchronous serum concentration patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that interrelations between hormones from interlinked as well as different hypothalamic-pituitary-target gland axes are observed in healthy older individuals. More research is needed to determine the biological meaning and clinical consequences of these observations.

Skeletal Effects of Levothyroxine for Subclinical Hypothyroidism in Older Adults: A TRUST Randomized Trial Nested Study

CONTEXT

Both thyroid dysfunction and levothyroxine (LT4) therapy have been associated with bone loss, but studies on the effect of LT4 for subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) on bone yielded conflicting results.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of LT4 treatment on bone mineral density (BMD), Trabecular Bone Score (TBS), and bone turnover markers (BTMs) in older adults with SHypo.

DESIGN AND INTERVENTION

Planned nested substudy of the double-blind placebo-controlled TRUST trial. Participants with SHypo were randomized to LT4 with dose titration versus placebo with computerized mock titration.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

196 community-dwelling adults over 65 years enrolled at the Swiss TRUST sites had baseline and 1-year follow-up bone examinations; 4 participants withdrew due to adverse events not related to treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

One-year percentage changes of BMD, TBS, and 2 serum BTMs (serum CTX-1 [sCTX] and procollagen type 1 N-terminal polypeptide [P1NP]). Student's t-test for unadjusted analyses and linear regression adjusted for clinical center and sex were performed.

RESULTS

Mean age was 74.3 years ± 5.7, 45.4% were women, and 19.6% were osteoporotic. The unadjusted 1-year change in lumbar spine BMD was similar between LT4 (+0.8%) and placebo-treated groups (-0.6%; between-groups difference +1.4%: 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.1 to 2.9, P = .059). Likewise, there were no between-group differences in 1-year change in TBS (-1.3%: 95% CI -3.1 to 0.6, P = .19), total hip BMD (-0.2%: 95% CI -1.1 to 0.1, P = .61), or BTMs levels (sCTX +24.1%: 95% CI -7.9 to 56.2, P = .14), or after adjustment for clinical centers and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 1-year levothyroxine had no effect on bone health in older adults with SHypo.

REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrial.gov NCT01660126 and NCT02491008.

Association Between Levothyroxine Treatment and Thyroid-Related Symptoms Among Adults Aged 80 Years and Older With Subclinical Hypothyroidism

IMPORTANCE

It is unclear whether levothyroxine treatment provides clinically important benefits in adults aged 80 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association of levothyroxine treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism with thyroid-related quality of life in adults aged 80 years and older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospectively planned combined analysis of data involving community-dwelling adults aged 80 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism. Data from a randomized clinical trial were combined with a subgroup of participants aged 80 years and older from a second clinical trial. The trials were conducted between April 2013 and May 2018. Final follow-up was May 4, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Participants were randomly assigned to receive levothyroxine (n = 112; 52 participants from the first trial and 60 from the second trial) or placebo (n = 139; 53 participants from the first trial and 86 from the second trial).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Co-primary outcomes were Thyroid-Related Quality of Life Patient-Reported Outcome (ThyPRO) questionnaire scores for the domains of hypothyroid symptoms and tiredness at 1 year (range, 0-100; higher scores indicate worse quality of life; minimal clinically important difference, 9).

RESULTS

Of 251 participants (mean age, 85 years; 118 [47%] women), 105 were included from the first clinical trial and 146 were included from the second clinical trial. A total of 212 participants (84%) completed the study. The hypothyroid symptoms score decreased from 21.7 at baseline to 19.3 at 12 months in the levothyroxine group vs from 19.8 at baseline to 17.4 at 12 months in the placebo group (adjusted between-group difference, 1.3 [95% CI, -2.7 to 5.2]; P = .53). The tiredness score increased from 25.5 at baseline to 28.2 at 12 months in the levothyroxine group vs from 25.1 at baseline to 28.7 at 12 months in the placebo group (adjusted between-group difference, -0.1 [95% CI, -4.5 to 4.3]; P = .96). At least 1 adverse event occurred in 33 participants (29.5%) in the levothyroxine group (the most common adverse event was cerebrovascular accident, which occurred in 3 participants [2.2%]) and 40 participants (28.8%) in the placebo group (the most common adverse event was pneumonia, which occurred in 4 [3.6%] participants).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this prospectively planned analysis of data from 2 clinical trials involving adults aged 80 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism, treatment with levothyroxine, compared with placebo, was not significantly associated with improvement in hypothyroid symptoms or fatigue. These findings do not support routine use of levothyroxine for treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism in adults aged 80 years and older.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01660126; Netherlands Trial Register: NTR3851.

[Screening tools do not measure up against rigorous history taking]

Provision of appropriate care services for older adults is a challenge for contemporary medical practice, especially for cases where elderly patients present in an emergency department. Manifold questionnaires, inventories and screening tools have been developed to identify those who are at an increased risk of adverse outcomes. The complex problems with which older adults present are difficult to capture in these standardized instruments, whereas the prognostic accuracy is insufficient for personalized risk estimation. Instead of relying on questionnaires and inventories, it is strongly advised to follow the iterative and associate approach of history taking that starts with listening to what is there to say by patients and/or carers.

Do psychosocial factors modify the negative association between disability and life satisfaction in old age?

CONTEXT

Many assume that having poor physical health in old age lowers life satisfaction, but in fact there are large differences in life satisfaction among older people who experience disability.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether psychosocial factors modify the negative association between disability and life satisfaction in older people and whether these differ across the life course.

DESIGN

Cross sectional study.

SETTING

66,561 community-dwelling Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) participants aged 50-106 with a mean age of 67.8 ± 9.9 (SD) years from 17 European countries and Israel.

METHODS

Psychosocial factors included depression (EURO-D scale), perceived loneliness, having a spouse, having children, contact with children, and participation in social activities. Disability was assessed by limitations in (Instrumental) Activities of Daily Living ((I)ADL) and life satisfaction by Cantril's ladder. We also ran the analyses with the Control Autonomy Self-realization Pleasure (CASP-12) Index, a normative measure of quality of life. We used multiple linear regressions to estimate associations and proportion of variance explained.

RESULTS

The variance in life satisfaction that could be attributed uniquely to ADL and IADL disability was 0.17% and 0.33% respectively (both p < 0.001). The impact of (I)ADL disabilities on life satisfaction was strongest at age 50 and gradually decreased with increasing age (p trend < 0.001). Mental health explained more variance; 5.75% for depressive symptoms and 2.50% for loneliness and for social resources this ranged from 0.09% to 0.47% (all p < 0.001). While disability has a negative effect on life satisfaction, the effect was not stronger in older persons who were depressed, neither in those who felt lonely nor in those without social resources. Similar outcomes were found when using CASP-12 as the explained variable.

CONCLUSION

The impact of (I)ADL disabilities on life satisfaction in community-dwelling older people decreases with age. These associations are not affected by psychosocial factors and these patterns cannot be explained by people changing their norms and values.

Are skin senescence and immunosenescence linked within individuals?

With advancing age, many organs exhibit functional deterioration. The age‐associated accumulation of senescent cells is believed to represent one factor contributing to this phenomenon. While senescent cells are found in several different organ systems, it is not known whether they arise independently in each organ system or whether their prevalence within an individual reflects that individual's intrinsic aging process. To address this question, we studied senescence in two different organ systems in humans, namely skin and T cells in 80 middle‐aged and older individuals from the Leiden Longevity Study. Epidermal p16INK4a positivity was associated with neither CD4⁺ nor CD8⁺ T‐cell immunosenescence phenotype composites (i.e., end‐stage differentiated/senescent T cells, including CD45RA⁺CCR7^‐CD28^‐CD27^‐CD57⁺KLRG1⁺ T cells). Dermal p16INK4a positivity was significantly associated with the CD4⁺, but not with the CD8⁺ immunosenescence composite. We therefore conclude that there is limited evidence for a link between skin senescence and immunosenescence within individuals.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms: protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

INTRODUCTION

Prospective cohort studies on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms have yielded conflicting findings, possibly because of differences in age, sex, thyroid-stimulating hormone cut-off levels or degree of baseline depressive symptoms. Analysis of individual participant data (IPD) may help clarify this association.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of prospective studies on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms. We will identify studies through a systematic search of the literature in the Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases from inception to April 2019 and from the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We will ask corresponding authors of studies that meet our inclusion criteria to collaborate by providing IPD. Our primary outcome will be depressive symptoms at the first available individual follow-up, measured on a validated scale. We will convert all the scores to the Beck Depression Inventory scale. For each cohort, we will estimate the mean difference of depressive symptoms between participants with subclinical hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism and control adjusted for depressive symptoms at baseline. Furthermore, we will adjust our multivariable linear regression analyses for age, sex, education and income. We will pool the effect estimates of all studies in a random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity will be assessed by I². Our secondary outcomes will be depressive symptoms at a specific follow-up time, at the last available individual follow-up and incidence of depression at the first, last and at a specific follow-up time. For the binary outcome of incident depression, we will use a logistic regression model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval is not required as primary data will not be collected. Our findings will have considerable implications for patient care. We will seek to publish this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis in a high-impact clinical journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018091627.

Men Have a Stronger Monocyte-Derived Cytokine Production Response upon Stimulation with the Gram-Negative Stimulus Lipopolysaccharide than Women: A Pooled Analysis Including 15 Study Populations

The incidence of bacterial infections and sepsis, as well as the mortality risk from sepsis, is sex specific. These clinical findings have been attributed to sex differences in immune responsiveness. The aim of the present study was to investigate sex differences in monocyte-derived cytokine production response upon stimulation with the gram-negative stimulus lipopolysaccharide (LPS) using cytokine data from 15 study populations. Individual data on ex vivo cytokine production response upon stimulation with LPS in whole blood were available for 4,020 subjects originating from these 15 study populations, either from the general population or from patient populations with specific diseases. Men had a stronger cytokine production response than women to LPS for tumour necrosis factor-α, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-12, IL-1β, IL-1RA, and IL-10, but not for interferon-γ. The granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor production response was lower in men than in women. These sex differences were independent of chronological age. As men had higher monocyte concentrations, we normalized the cytokine production responses for monocyte concentration. After normalization, the sex differences in cytokine production response to LPS disappeared, except for IL-10, for which the production response was lower in men than in women. A sex-based approach to interpreting immune responsiveness is crucial.

Night shift work, long working hours and dementia: a longitudinal study of the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Shift work and long working hours are potential risk factors for dementia, but previous studies on shift work, long working hours and dementia are sparse and their findings are conflicting. Therefore, we investigated the effect of night shift work and long working hours on dementia.

DESIGN

A longitudinal study.

SETTING

Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS

3435 occupationally active men and women from the general working population.

METHODS

Work schedule covered day work (reference) and shift schedules without/with night work. Working hours covered <27, 28-36, 37 (reference), 38-44, and ≥45 hours/week. As the primary outcome, we used register-based information about dementia, and estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% CI. Estimates were adjusted for gender, age, psychosocial work factors and cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

We identified 85 dementia cases during a mean of 9.8 years of follow-up. We found a positive, but statistically insignificant association between night shift work and dementia (IRR=2.01; 95% CI: 0.87-4.65). Post hoc analyses indicated that this was only due to a higher risk in permanent night workers (IRR=3.25; 95% CI: 1.35-7.83). The dementia risk was also significantly higher among participants working 38-44 hours/week (IRR=2.08; 95% CI: 1.11-3.90) compared with those working 37 hours/week. We found no indications of a higher risk of dementia in participants working <37 hours/week or ≥45 hours/week.

CONCLUSION

We did not find arguments that night shift work or long working hours increased dementia risk in general. However, we found a higher risk of dementia in specific subgroups, that is, permanent night workers and employees with moderately longer weekly working hours than the standard.

Inflammation in older subjects with early- and late-onset depression in the NESDO study: a cross-sectional and longitudinal case-only design

OBJECTIVE

Different biological mechanisms may underlie depression beginning in early life (early-onset) and depression beginning later in life (late-onset). Although the relation between inflammation and depression has been studied extensively, the distinct role of inflammation in early and late-onset depression in older patients has not been addressed before. In the cross-sectional part of this study, we explored differences in levels of circulating inflammatory markers and cytokine levels in lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulated whole blood between older subjects with a late-life onset depression (≥60 years) and older subjects with an early-onset depression (<60 years). Secondly, in a 2-year follow-up study, we examined if circulating and stimulated inflammatory markers influenced the change in Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (IDS) scores, and if this relation was different for early- and late-onset depression.

METHODS

The study was part of the Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO). We included 350 patients, all aged 60 and older, with a depressive episode in the previous 6 months: 119 with a late-onset depression and 231 with an early-onset depression. Blood samples were collected and CRP, IL-6, NGAL, GDF15, and, LPS plasma levels were determined and whole blood was LPS stimulated and cytokine levels IL-1β, IL-6, TNFα, IFNγ, IL-10, and IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) were determined.

RESULTS

After adjustment for demographics, health indicators, and medication use, increased plasma CRP levels were more strongly associated with late-onset depression than early-onset depression (OR [95% CI]: 1.43 [1.05-1.94]). In the longitudinal analyses, higher circulating IL-6 levels were associated with a significantly slower decline in IDS scores in the crude and the adjusted models (p ≤ 0.027). This relation was not different between late- and early-onset depression. Other circulating and stimulated inflammatory markers were not associated with late- and/or early-onset depression.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides preliminary evidence that low-grade inflammation is more strongly associated with late-onset than early-onset depression in older adults, suggesting a distinct inflammatory etiology for late-onset depression. Cytokine production capacity did not distinguish between early- and late-onset depression.

The added value of health indicators to mortality predictions in old age: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Numerous risk prediction models use indicators of health to predict mortality in old age. The added value to mortality predictions based on demographic variables is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the accuracy of health indicators in predicting all-cause mortality among individuals aged 50+ using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Specifically, to assess the added value of health indicators relative to demographic variables.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. There were no restrictions on study designs, follow-up duration, language, or publication dates. We also examined the quality of studies using the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies.

RESULTS

Out of 804 studies investigating all-cause mortality in older persons, 16 studies were eligible. In community-dwelling populations, the accuracy of demographic variables and health indicators combined ranged from AUC 0.71 to 0.82, indicating modest ability to predict mortality. Age contributed the most to mortality prediction (AUC 0.65 to 0.78) and compared to age and sex, the added values of genetics, physiology, functioning, mood, cognition, nutritional status, subjective health, disease, frailty, and lifestyle ranged from AUC 0.01 to 0.10. The lack of validation samples made it difficult to assess their true added value. Findings were similar in institutionalized populations. Heterogeneity of the studies prevented us from performing a meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

Age and sex contributed the most to mortality predictions in old age while the added value of health indicators is likely to be limited.

The Relation Between Thyroid Function and Anemia: A Pooled Analysis of Individual Participant Data

Context

Anemia and thyroid dysfunction often co-occur, and both increase with age. Human data on relationships between thyroid disease and anemia are scarce.

Objective

To investigate the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between clinical thyroid status and anemia.

Design

Individual participant data meta-analysis.

Setting

Sixteen cohorts participating in the Thyroid Studies Collaboration (n = 42,162).

Main Outcome Measures

Primary outcome measure was anemia (hemoglobin <130 g/L in men and <120 g/L in women).

Results

Cross-sectionally, participants with abnormal thyroid status had an increased risk of having anemia compared with euthyroid participants [overt hypothyroidism, pooled OR 1.84 (95% CI 1.35 to 2.50), subclinical hypothyroidism 1.21 (1.02 to 1.43), subclinical hyperthyroidism 1.27 (1.03 to 1.57), and overt hyperthyroidism 1.69 (1.00 to 2.87)]. Hemoglobin levels were lower in all groups compared with participants with euthyroidism. In the longitudinal analyses (n = 25,466 from 14 cohorts), the pooled hazard ratio for the risk of development of anemia was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.20) for overt hypothyroidism, 1.18 (1.00 to 1.38) for subclinical hypothyroidism, 1.15 (0.94 to 1.42) for subclinical hyperthyroidism, and 1.47 (0.91 to 2.38) for overt hyperthyroidism. Sensitivity analyses excluding thyroid medication or high levels of C-reactive protein yielded similar results. No differences in mean annual change in hemoglobin levels were observed between the thyroid hormone status groups.

Conclusion

Higher odds of having anemia were observed in participants with both hypothyroid function and hyperthyroid function. In addition, reduced thyroid function at baseline showed a trend of increased risk of developing anemia during follow-up. It remains to be assessed in a randomized controlled trial whether treatment is effective in reducing anemia.

Mortality and Causes of Death in Inherited Antithrombin Deficiency

To assess the contribution of inherited antithrombin deficiency to mortality, we investigated the causes of death in 14 families with inherited antithrombin deficiency. Between 1830 and 1994, 86 of 266 family members who had a probability of 0.5 or more for heterozygosity died. The causes of death were obtained for 58 of 66 deaths occurring between 1940 and 1994. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated using mortality rates from the general population adjusted for age, sex and calendar period.

The overall SMR was 0.90 from 1830 to 1994 (95% C.1.0.72-1.11). From 1940 until 1994 44 men and 22 women died (SMR = 1.09, 95% C.I. 0.84-1.39; SMR men = 1.20, 95% C.I. 0.87-1.61; SMR women = 0.92,95% C.I. 0.58-1.39). No excess mortality compared to the general population was found for cancer (14 deaths) or circulatory diseases (28 deaths). A slightly increased mortality caused by respiratory diseases (7 deaths, SMR = 1.68,95% C.I. 0.68-3.47) seemed due to pneumonia (4 deaths, SMR = 2.86, 95% C.I. 0.78-7.32). Venous thromboembolic complications were listed once in association with a risk situation, and one other death could be attributed to fatal pulmonary embolism. Cerebral hemorrhages were listed three times. It could not be verified whether these hemorrhages were related to anticoagulant therapy; the frequency was slightly higher than the expected population figure (SMR = 1.49,95% C.I. 0.31-4.36). The mean age of death for all causes was 64 years; the two fatal thromboembolic episodes occurred at age 20 and 30 years.

The data show that antithrombin deficiency is associated with a normal survival and a low risk of fatal thromboembolic events. The use of long-term anticoagulant treatment in asymptomatic individuals should be considered carefully in view of the greater risk of fatal bleeding associated with long-term anticoagulant prophylaxis.

Inherited Prethrombotic Disorders and Infectious Purpura

Patients with severe meningococcal infection are characterized by extensive microvascular thrombosis, consumption coagulopathy and secondary hemorrhages. The contribution of the inherited prethrombotic disorders to the severity of the disease course is not established yet. Here, we report on the levels of protein C, protein S, antithrombin and the presence of the factor V Leiden mutation (R506Q) in 50 patients with meningococcal disease, as determined 6 to 58 months after hospital discharge. In addition, we recalled the parents of 16 deceased patients to screen for the mutation in factor V, an abnormality which results in resistance to activated protein C. Among the patients, the prevalence of the genetic risk factors for thrombosis was not higher than expected on the basis of their prevalence in the general population. Moreover, the prevalence of the factor V Leiden mutation was not increased among the parents of the deceased patients. The individual plasma levels of protein C, protein S, and antithrombin did not differ between the patients with or without severe purpura. The present data constitute circumstantial evidence that primary defects in the natural anticoagulant systems do not play a major role in the severity of the disease course. Screening of patients with infectious purpura for inherited thrombotic risk factors is therefore not indicated.