Life course plasma metabolomic signatures of genetic liability to Alzheimer's disease

Mechanisms through which most known Alzheimer's disease (AD) loci operate to increase AD risk remain unclear. Although Apolipoprotein E (APOE) is known to regulate lipid homeostasis, the effects of broader AD genetic liability on non-lipid metabolites remain unknown, and the earliest ages at which metabolic perturbations occur and how these change over time are yet to be elucidated. We examined the effects of AD genetic liability on the plasma metabolome across the life course. Using a reverse Mendelian randomization framework in two population-based cohorts [Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, n = 5648) and UK Biobank (n ≤ 118,466)], we estimated the effects of genetic liability to AD on 229 plasma metabolites, at seven different life stages, spanning 8 to 73 years. We also compared the specific effects of APOE ε4 and APOE ε2 carriage on metabolites. In ALSPAC, AD genetic liability demonstrated the strongest positive associations with cholesterol-related traits, with similar magnitudes of association observed across all age groups including in childhood. In UK Biobank, the effect of AD liability on several lipid traits decreased with age. Fatty acid metabolites demonstrated positive associations with AD liability in both cohorts, though with smaller magnitudes than lipid traits. Sensitivity analyses indicated that observed effects are largely driven by the strongest AD instrument, APOE, with many contrasting effects observed on lipids and fatty acids for both ε4 and ε2 carriage. Our findings indicate pronounced effects of the ε4 and ε2 genetic variants on both pro- and anti-atherogenic lipid traits and sphingomyelins, which begin in childhood and either persist into later life or appear to change dynamically.

Trans-ancestral genome-wide association study of longitudinal pubertal height growth and shared heritability with adult health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Pubertal growth patterns correlate with future health outcomes. However, the genetic mechanisms mediating growth trajectories remain largely unknown. Here, we modeled longitudinal height growth with Super-Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) growth curve analysis on ~ 56,000 trans-ancestry samples with repeated height measurements from age 5 years to adulthood. We performed genetic analysis on six phenotypes representing the magnitude, timing, and intensity of the pubertal growth spurt. To investigate the lifelong impact of genetic variants associated with pubertal growth trajectories, we performed genetic correlation analyses and phenome-wide association studies in the Penn Medicine BioBank and the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

Large-scale growth modeling enables an unprecedented view of adolescent growth across contemporary and 20th-century pediatric cohorts. We identify 26 genome-wide significant loci and leverage trans-ancestry data to perform fine-mapping. Our data reveals genetic relationships between pediatric height growth and health across the life course, with different growth trajectories correlated with different outcomes. For instance, a faster tempo of pubertal growth correlates with higher bone mineral density, HOMA-IR, fasting insulin, type 2 diabetes, and lung cancer, whereas being taller at early puberty, taller across puberty, and having quicker pubertal growth were associated with higher risk for atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSION

We report novel genetic associations with the tempo of pubertal growth and find that genetic determinants of growth are correlated with reproductive, glycemic, respiratory, and cardiac traits in adulthood. These results aid in identifying specific growth trajectories impacting lifelong health and show that there may not be a single "optimal" pubertal growth pattern.

Identifying metabolic features of colorectal cancer liability using Mendelian randomization

Background

Recognizing the early signs of cancer risk is vital for informing prevention, early detection, and survival.

Methods

To investigate whether changes in circulating metabolites characterize the early stages of colorectal cancer (CRC) development, we examined the associations between a genetic risk score (GRS) associated with CRC liability (72 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) and 231 circulating metabolites measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 6221). Linear regression models were applied to examine the associations between genetic liability to CRC and circulating metabolites measured in the same individuals at age 8 y, 16 y, 18 y, and 25 y.

Results

The GRS for CRC was associated with up to 28% of the circulating metabolites at FDR-P < 0.05 across all time points, particularly with higher fatty acids and very-low- and low-density lipoprotein subclass lipids. Two-sample reverse Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses investigating CRC liability (52,775 cases, 45,940 controls) and metabolites measured in a random subset of UK Biobank participants (N = 118,466, median age 58 y) revealed broadly consistent effect estimates with the GRS analysis. In conventional (forward) MR analyses, genetically predicted polyunsaturated fatty acid concentrations were most strongly associated with higher CRC risk.

Conclusions

These analyses suggest that higher genetic liability to CRC can cause early alterations in systemic metabolism and suggest that fatty acids may play an important role in CRC development.

Funding

This work was supported by the Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol, the Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, Diabetes UK, the University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and Cancer Research UK. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This work used the computational facilities of the Advanced Computing Research Centre, University of Bristol - http://www.bristol.ac.uk/acrc/.

Childhood socioeconomic position and sex-specific trajectories of metabolic traits across early life: prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease risk begin early in life and are more pronounced in females than males later in life. Causal atherogenic traits explaining this are not well understood. We explored sex-specific associations between childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) and molecular measures of systemic metabolism across early life.

METHODS

Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a population-based birth cohort in southwest England. Pregnant women with an expected delivery date between 1991 and 1992 were invited to participate. Maternal education was the primary indicator of SEP. Concentrations of 148 metabolic traits from targeted metabolomics (nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy) from research clinics at ages 7, 15, 18 and 25 years were analysed. The sex-specific slope index of inequality (SII) in trajectories of metabolic traits was estimated using multilevel models.

FINDINGS

Total number of participants included was 6537 (12,543 repeated measures). Lower maternal education was associated with more adverse levels of several atherogenic lipids and key metabolic traits among females at age 7 years, but not males. For instance, SII for very small very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) concentrations was 0.16SD (95% CI: 0.01, 0.30) among females and -0.02SD (95% CI: -0.16, 0.13) among males. Between 7 and 25 years, inequalities widened among females and emerged among males particularly for VLDL particle concentrations, apolipoprotein-B concentrations, and inflammatory glycoprotein acetyls. For instance, at 25 years, SII for very small VLDL concentrations was 0.36SD (95% CI: 0.20, 0.52) and 0.22SD (95% CI: 0.04, 0.40) among females and males respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Prevention of socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease risk requires a life course approach beginning at the earliest opportunity, especially among females.

FUNDING

The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (grant ref: 217065/Z/19/Z) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC. A comprehensive list of grants funding is available on the ALSPAC website (http://www.bristol.ac.uk/alspac/external/documents/grant-acknowledgements.pdf). KON is supported by a Health Research Board (HRB) of Ireland Investigator Led Award (ILP-PHR-2022-008). JB, GDS and KT work in a unit funded by the UK MRC (MC_UU_00011/1 and MC UU 00011/3) and the University of Bristol. OR is supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S03532X/1). These funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of this study. This publication is the work of the authors and KON will serve as guarantor for the contents of this paper.

Identifying metabolic features of colorectal cancer liability using Mendelian randomization

Background

Recognizing the early signs of cancer risk is vital for informing prevention, early detection, and survival.

Methods

To investigate whether changes in circulating metabolites characterise the early stages of colorectal cancer (CRC) development, we examined associations between a genetic risk score (GRS) associated with CRC liability (72 single nucleotide polymorphisms) and 231 circulating metabolites measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N=6,221). Linear regression models were applied to examine associations between genetic liability to colorectal cancer and circulating metabolites measured in the same individuals at age 8, 16, 18 and 25 years.

Results

The GRS for CRC was associated with up to 28% of the circulating metabolites at FDR-P<0.05 across all time points, particularly with higher fatty acids and very-low- and low-density lipoprotein subclass lipids. Two-sample reverse Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses investigating CRC liability (52,775 cases, 45,940 controls) and metabolites measured in a random subset of UK Biobank participants (N=118,466, median age 58y) revealed broadly consistent effect estimates with the GRS analysis. In conventional (forward) MR analyses, genetically predicted polyunsaturated fatty acid concentrations were most strongly associated with higher CRC risk.

Conclusions

These analyses suggest that higher genetic liability to CRC can cause early alterations in systemic metabolism, and suggest that fatty acids may play an important role in CRC development.

Funding

This work was supported by the Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol, the Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, Diabetes UK, the University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and Cancer Research UK. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This work used the computational facilities of the Advanced Computing Research Centre, University of Bristol - http://www.bristol.ac.uk/acrc/.

Life course effects of genetic susceptibility to higher body size on body fat and lean mass: prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Different genetic variants are associated with larger body size in childhood vs adulthood. Whether and when these variants predominantly influence adiposity are unknown. We examined how genetic variants influence total body fat and total lean mass trajectories.

METHODS

Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort (N = 6926). Sex-specific genetic risk scores (GRS) for childhood and adulthood body size were generated, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans measured body fat and lean mass six times between the ages of 9 and 25 years. Multilevel linear spline models examined associations of GRS with fat and lean mass trajectories.

RESULTS

In males, the sex-specific childhood and adulthood GRS were associated with similar differences in fat mass from 9 to 18 years; 8.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1, 11.6] and 7.5% (95% CI 4.3, 10.8) higher fat mass at 18 years per standard deviation (SD) higher childhood and adulthood GRS, respectively. In males, the sex-combined childhood GRS had stronger effects at ages 9 to 15 than the sex-combined adulthood GRS. In females, associations for the sex-specific childhood GRS were almost 2-fold stronger than the adulthood GRS from 9 to 18 years: 10.5% (95% CI 8.5, 12.4) higher fat mass at 9 years per SD higher childhood GRS compared with 5.1% (95% CI 3.2, 6.9) per-SD higher adulthood GRS. In females, the sex-combined GRS had similar effects, with slightly larger effect estimates. Lean mass effect sizes were much smaller.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variants for body size are more strongly associated with adiposity than with lean mass. Sex-combined childhood variants are more strongly associated with increased adiposity until early adulthood. This may inform future studies that use genetics to investigate the causes and impact of adiposity at different life stages.

Sex-specific trajectories of molecular cardiometabolic traits from childhood to young adulthood

BACKGROUND

The changes which typically occur in molecular causal risk factors and predictive biomarkers for cardiometabolic diseases across early life are not well characterised.

METHODS

We quantified sex-specific trajectories of 148 metabolic trait concentrations including various lipoprotein subclasses from age 7 years to 25 years. Data were from 7065 to 7626 offspring (11 702 to14 797 repeated measures) of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort study. Outcomes were quantified using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 7, 15, 18 and 25 years. Sex-specific trajectories of each trait were modelled using linear spline multilevel models.

RESULTS

Females had higher very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particle concentrations at 7 years. VLDL particle concentrations decreased from 7 years to 25 years with larger decreases in females, leading to lower VLDL particle concentrations at 25 years in females. For example, females had a 0.25 SD (95% CI 0.20 to 0.31) higher small VLDL particle concentration at 7 years; mean levels decreased by 0.06 SDs (95% CI -0.01 to 0.13) in males and 0.85 SDs (95% CI 0.79 to 0.90) in females from 7 years to 25 years, leading to 0.42 SDs (95% CI 0.35 to 0.48) lower small VLDL particle concentrations in females at 25 years. Females had lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle concentrations at 7 years. HDL particle concentrations increased from 7 years to 25 years with larger increases among females leading to higher HDL particle concentrations in females at 25 years.

CONCLUSION

Childhood and adolescence are important periods for the emergence of sex differences in atherogenic lipids and predictive biomarkers for cardiometabolic disease, mostly to the detriment of males.

Distinct metabolic features of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease: a reverse Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary artery disease (CAD) both have known genetic determinants, but the mechanisms through which their associated genetic variants lead to disease onset remain poorly understood.

METHODS

We used large-scale metabolomics data in a two-sample reverse Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to estimate effects of genetic liability to T2D and CAD on 249 circulating metabolites in the UK Biobank (N = 118,466). We examined the potential for medication use to distort effect estimates by conducting age-stratified metabolite analyses.

FINDINGS

Using inverse variance weighted (IVW) models, higher genetic liability to T2D was estimated to decrease high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (e.g.

, HDL-C

 -0.05 SD; 95% CI -0.07 to -0.03, per doubling of liability), whilst increasing all triglyceride groups and branched chain amino acids (BCAAs). IVW estimates for CAD liability suggested an effect on reducing HDL-C as well as raising very-low density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) and LDL-C. In pleiotropy-robust models, T2D liability was still estimated to increase BCAAs, but several estimates for higher CAD liability reversed and supported decreased LDL-C and apolipoprotein-B. Estimated effects of CAD liability differed substantially by age for non-HDL-C traits, with higher CAD liability lowering LDL-C only at older ages when statin use was common.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, our results support largely distinct metabolic features of genetic liability to T2D and CAD, illustrating both challenges and opportunities for preventing these commonly co-occurring diseases.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust [218495/Z/19/Z], UK MRC [MC_UU_00011/1; MC_UU_00011/4], the University of Bristol, Diabetes UK [17/0005587], World Cancer Research Fund [IIG_2019_2009].

Attitudes and uses of archival materials among science-based anthropologists

While archival user studies have largely focused on humanities (and adjacent) scholars, this paper focuses on anthropologists engaged in scientific research. Based on qualitative results from an open-ended survey, we investigate how science-based anthropologists perceive and use archives in their work. We ask: How are science-based anthropologists and archaeologists reusing archival data in their research? What difficulties or barriers do they encounter in reusing archival data in scientific contexts? What attitudes or understandings about archival research are held by science-based anthropologists and archaeologists? Our findings primarily add to the body of literature about user experience in archives and more broadly to the emerging literature on archival data reuse. Major findings include (1) barriers and gatekeeping legacies that impact archival research and the ability of researchers to reuse data and (2) mixed perceptions about archives among researchers. We also discuss suggestions made by these communities of practice, and the ways that barriers to archival data reuse may stem from a lack of knowledge about core archival and information infrastructures among researcher communities. Together, this research showcases possible (re)uses of important primary source data in archives among scientific communities but highlights that barriers to access and misperceptions create a gap in exploiting that potential. We argue for a "re-imagining" of anthropological archives as relevant to contemporary communities and scientific pursuits toward a richer scientific research environment.

Strategies to investigate and mitigate collider bias in genetic and Mendelian randomisation studies of disease progression

Genetic studies of disease progression can be used to identify factors that may influence survival or prognosis, which may differ from factors that influence on disease susceptibility. Studies of disease progression feed directly into therapeutics for disease, whereas studies of incidence inform prevention strategies. However, studies of disease progression are known to be affected by collider (also known as "index event") bias since the disease progression phenotype can only be observed for individuals who have the disease. This applies equally to observational and genetic studies, including genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. In this paper, our aim is to review several statistical methods that can be used to detect and adjust for index event bias in studies of disease progression, and how they apply to genetic and MR studies using both individual- and summary-level data. Methods to detect the presence of index event bias include the use of negative controls, a comparison of associations between risk factors for incidence in individuals with and without the disease, and an inspection of Miami plots. Methods to adjust for the bias include inverse probability weighting (with individual-level data), or Slope-Hunter and Dudbridge et al.'s index event bias adjustment (when only summary-level data are available). We also outline two approaches for sensitivity analysis. We then illustrate how three methods to minimise bias can be used in practice with two applied examples. Our first example investigates the effects of blood lipid traits on mortality from coronary heart disease, while our second example investigates genetic associations with breast cancer mortality.

Separating the effects of early and later life adiposity on colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk.

METHODS

We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77-1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76-1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90-1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood.

Effects of general and central adiposity on circulating lipoprotein, lipid, and metabolite levels in UK Biobank: A multivariable Mendelian randomization study

Background

The direct effects of general adiposity (body mass index (BMI)) and central adiposity (waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR)) on circulating lipoproteins, lipids, and metabolites are unknown.

Methods

We used new metabolic data from UK Biobank (N=109,532, a five-fold higher N over previous studies). EDTA-plasma was used to quantify 249 traits with nuclear-magnetic-resonance spectroscopy including subclass-specific lipoprotein concentrations and lipid content, plus pre-glycemic and inflammatory metabolites. We used univariable and multivariable two-stage least-squares regression models with genetic risk scores for BMI and WHR as instruments to estimate total (unadjusted) and direct (mutually-adjusted) effects of BMI and WHR on metabolic traits; plus effects on statin use and interaction by sex, statin use, and age (proxy for medication use).

Findings

Higher BMI decreased apolipoprotein B and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) before and after WHR-adjustment, whilst BMI increased triglycerides only before WHR-adjustment. These effects of WHR were larger and BMI-independent. Direct effects differed markedly by sex, e.g., triglycerides increased only with BMI among men, and only with WHR among women. Adiposity measures increased statin use and showed metabolic effects which differed by statin use and age. Among the youngest (38-53y, statins-5%), BMI and WHR (per-SD) increased LDL-C (total effects: 0.04-SD, 95%CI=-0.01,0.08 and 0.10-SD, 95%CI=0.02,0.17 respectively), but only WHR directly. Among the oldest (63-73y, statins-29%), BMI and WHR directly lowered LDL-C (-0.19-SD, 95%CI=-0.27,-0.11 and -0.05-SD, 95%CI=-0.16,0.06 respectively).

Interpretation

Excess adiposity likely raises atherogenic lipid and metabolite levels exclusively via adiposity stored centrally, particularly among women. Apparent effects of adiposity on lowering LDL-C are likely explained by an effect of adiposity on statin use.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; Novo Nordisk; National Institute for Health Research; Wellcome Trust; Cancer Research UK.

Puberty Timing and Sex-Specific Trajectories of Systolic Blood Pressure: a Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Sex differences in systolic blood pressure (SBP) emerge during adolescence but the role of puberty is not well understood. We examined sex-specific changes in SBP preceding and following puberty and examined the impact of puberty timing on SBP trajectories in females and males.

METHODS

Trajectories of SBP before and after puberty and by timing of puberty in females and males in a contemporary birth cohort study were analyzed. Repeated measures of height from age 5 to 20 years were used to identify puberty timing (age at peak height velocity). SBP was measured on ten occasions from 3 to 24 years (N participants, 4062; repeated SBP measures, 29 172). Analyses were performed using linear spline multilevel models based on time before and after puberty and were adjusted for parental factors and early childhood factors.

RESULTS

Mean age at peak height velocity was 11.7 years (SD, 0.8) for females and 13.6 years (SD, 0.9) for males. Males had faster rates of increase in SBP before puberty leading to 10.19 mm Hg (95% CI, 6.80-13.57) higher mean SBP at puberty which remained similar at 24 years (mean difference, 11.43 mm Hg [95% CI, 7.22-15.63]). Puberty timing was associated with small transient differences in SBP trajectories postpuberty in both sexes and small differences at 24 years in females only.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of the higher SBP observed in males compared with females in early adulthood is accrued before puberty. Interventions targeting puberty timing are unlikely to influence SBP in early adulthood.

Should an Age Cutoff Be Considered for Elective Total Knee Arthroplasty Patients? An Analysis of Operative Success Based on Patient-Reported Outcomes

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is increasing in the elderly population; however, some patients, family members, and surgeons raise age-related concerns over expected improvement and risks. This study aimed to (1) evaluate the relationship between age and change in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs); (2) model how many patients would be denied improvements in PROMs if hypothetical age cutoffs were implemented; and (3) assess length of stay (LOS), readmission, reoperation, and mortality per age group. A prospective cohort of 4,396 primary TKAs (August 2015-August 2018) was analyzed. One-year PROMs were evaluated via Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS)-pain, -physical function short form (-PS), and -quality of life (-QOL), as well as Veterans Rand-12 (VR-12) physical (-PCS) and mental component (-MCS) scores. Positive predictive values (PPVs) of the number of postoperative "failures" (i.e., unattained minimal clinically important difference in PROMs) relative to number of hypothetically denied "successes" from a theoretical age-group restriction was estimated. KOOS-PS and QOL median score improvements were equivalent among all age groups (p = 0.946 and p = 0.467, respectively). KOOS-pain improvement was equivalent for ≥80 and 60-69-year groups (44.4 [27.8-55.6]). Median VR-12 PCS improvements diminished as age increased (15.9, 14.8, and 13.4 for the 60-69, 70-79, and ≥80 groups, respectively; p = 0.002) while improvement in VR-12 MCS was similar among age groups (p = 0.440). PPV for failure was highest in the ≥80 group, yet remained <34% for all KOOS measures. Overall mortality was highest in the ≥80 group (2.14%, n = 9). LOS >2, non-home discharge, and 90-day readmission were highest in the ≥80 group (8.11% [n = 24], p < 0.001; 33.7% [n = 109], p < 0.001; and 34.4% [n = 111], p = 0.001, respectively). Elderly patients exhibited similar improvement in PROMs to younger counterparts despite higher LOS, non-home discharge, and 90-day readmission. Therefore, special care pathways should be implemented for those age groups.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Characterising metabolomic signatures of lipid-modifying therapies through drug target mendelian randomisation

Large-scale molecular profiling and genotyping provide a unique opportunity to systematically compare the genetically predicted effects of therapeutic targets on the human metabolome. We firstly constructed genetic risk scores for 8 drug targets on the basis that they primarily modify low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (HMGCR, PCKS9, and NPC1L1), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (CETP), or triglycerides (APOC3, ANGPTL3, ANGPTL4, and LPL). Conducting mendelian randomisation (MR) provided strong evidence of an effect of drug-based genetic scores on coronary artery disease (CAD) risk with the exception of ANGPTL3. We then systematically estimated the effects of each score on 249 metabolic traits derived using blood samples from an unprecedented sample size of up to 115,082 UK Biobank participants. Genetically predicted effects were generally consistent among drug targets, which were intended to modify the same lipoprotein lipid trait. For example, the linear fit for the MR estimates on all 249 metabolic traits for genetically predicted inhibition of LDL cholesterol lowering targets HMGCR and PCSK9 was r² = 0.91. In contrast, comparisons between drug classes that were designed to modify discrete lipoprotein traits typically had very different effects on metabolic signatures (for instance, HMGCR versus each of the 4 triglyceride targets all had r² < 0.02). Furthermore, we highlight this discrepancy for specific metabolic traits, for example, finding that LDL cholesterol lowering therapies typically had a weak effect on glycoprotein acetyls, a marker of inflammation, whereas triglyceride modifying therapies assessed provided evidence of a strong effect on lowering levels of this inflammatory biomarker. Our findings indicate that genetically predicted perturbations of these drug targets on the blood metabolome can drastically differ, despite largely consistent effects on risk of CAD, with potential implications for biomarkers in clinical development and measuring treatment response.

Disease consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects using Mendelian randomisation

Background

Some individuals living with obesity may be relatively metabolically healthy, whilst others suffer from multiple conditions that may be linked to adverse metabolic effects or other factors. The extent to which the adverse metabolic component of obesity contributes to disease compared to the non-metabolic components is often uncertain. We aimed to use Mendelian randomisation (MR) and specific genetic variants to separately test the causal roles of higher adiposity with and without its adverse metabolic effects on diseases.

Methods

We selected 37 chronic diseases associated with obesity and genetic variants associated with different aspects of excess weight. These genetic variants included those associated with metabolically 'favourable adiposity' (FA) and 'unfavourable adiposity' (UFA) that are both associated with higher adiposity but with opposite effects on metabolic risk. We used these variants and two sample MR to test the effects on the chronic diseases.

Results

MR identified two sets of diseases. First, 11 conditions where the metabolic effect of higher adiposity is the likely primary cause of the disease. Here, MR with the FA and UFA genetics showed opposing effects on risk of disease: coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, hypertension, stroke, type 2 diabetes, polycystic ovary syndrome, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, renal cancer, and gout. Second, 9 conditions where the non-metabolic effects of excess weight (e.g. mechanical effect) are likely a cause. Here, MR with the FA genetics, despite leading to lower metabolic risk, and MR with the UFA genetics, both indicated higher disease risk: osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, gallstones, adult-onset asthma, psoriasis, deep vein thrombosis, and venous thromboembolism.

Conclusions

Our results assist in understanding the consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects, including the risks to individuals with high body mass index who may be relatively metabolically healthy.

Funding

Diabetes UK, UK Medical Research Council, World Cancer Research Fund, National Cancer Institute.

Sex-specific associations of adiposity with cardiometabolic traits in the UK: A multi-life stage cohort study with repeat metabolomics

BACKGROUND

Sex differences in cardiometabolic disease risk are commonly observed across the life course but are poorly understood and may be due to different associations of adiposity with cardiometabolic risk in females and males. We examined whether adiposity is differently associated with cardiometabolic trait levels in females and males at 3 different life stages.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were from 2 generations (offspring, Generation 1 [G1] born in 1991/1992 and their parents, Generation 0 [G0]) of a United Kingdom population-based birth cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Follow-up continues on the cohort; data up to 25 y after recruitment to the study are included in this analysis. Body mass index (BMI) and total fat mass from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were measured at mean age 9 y, 15 y, and 18 y in G1. Waist circumference was measured at 9 y and 15 y in G1. Concentrations of 148 cardiometabolic traits quantified using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were measured at 15 y, 18 y, and 25 y in G1. In G0, all 3 adiposity measures and the same 148 traits were available at 50 y. Using linear regression models, sex-specific associations of adiposity measures at each time point (9 y, 15 y, and 18 y) with cardiometabolic traits 3 to 6 y later were examined in G1. In G0, sex-specific associations of adiposity measures and cardiometabolic traits were examined cross-sectionally at 50 y. A total of 3,081 G1 and 4,887 G0 participants contributed to analyses. BMI was more strongly associated with key atherogenic traits in males compared with females at younger ages (15 y to 25 y), and associations were more similar between the sexes or stronger in females at 50 y, particularly for apolipoprotein B-containing lipoprotein particles and lipid concentrations. For example, a 1 standard deviation (SD) (3.8 kg/m2) higher BMI at 18 y was associated with 0.36 SD (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.20, 0.52) higher concentrations of extremely large very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particles at 25 y in males compared with 0.15 SD (95% CI = 0.09, 0.21) in females, P value for sex difference = 0.02. By contrast, at 50 y, a 1 SD (4.8 kg/m2) higher BMI was associated with 0.33 SD (95% CI = 0.25, 0.42) and 0.30 SD (95% CI = 0.26, 0.33) higher concentrations of extremely large VLDL particles in males and females, respectively, P value for sex difference = 0.42. Sex-specific associations of DXA-measured fat mass and waist circumference with cardiometabolic traits were similar to findings for BMI and cardiometabolic traits at each age. The main limitation of this work is its observational nature, and replication in independent cohorts using methods that can infer causality is required.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that associations of adiposity with adverse cardiometabolic risk begin earlier in the life course among males compared with females and are stronger until midlife, particularly for key atherogenic lipids. Adolescent and young adult males may therefore be high priority targets for obesity prevention efforts.

Evaluating the direct effects of childhood adiposity on adult systemic metabolism: a multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Individuals who are obese in childhood have an elevated risk of disease in adulthood. However, whether childhood adiposity directly impacts intermediate markers of this risk, independently of adult adiposity, is unclear. In this study, we have simultaneously evaluated the effects of childhood and adulthood body size on 123 systemic molecular biomarkers representing multiple metabolic pathways.

METHODS

Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted to estimate the causal effect of childhood body size on a total of 123 nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolic markers using summary genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from up to 24 925 adults. Multivariable MR was then applied to evaluate the direct effects of childhood body size on these metabolic markers whilst accounting for adult body size. Further MR analyses were undertaken to estimate the potential mediating effects of these circulating metabolites on the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in adulthood using a sample of 60 801 cases and 123 504 controls.

RESULTS

Univariable analyses provided evidence that childhood body size has an effect on 42 of the 123 metabolic markers assessed (based on P < 4.07 × 10-4). However, the majority of these effects (35/42) substantially attenuated when accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR. We found little evidence that the biomarkers that were potentially influenced directly by childhood body size (leucine, isoleucine and tyrosine) mediate this effect onto adult disease risk. Very-low-density lipoprotein markers provided the strongest evidence of mediating the long-term effect of adiposity on CAD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that childhood adiposity predominantly exerts its detrimental effect on adult systemic metabolism along a pathway that involves adulthood body size.

Effects of adiposity on the human plasma proteome: observational and Mendelian randomisation estimates

BACKGROUND

Variation in adiposity is associated with cardiometabolic disease outcomes, but mechanisms leading from this exposure to disease are unclear. This study aimed to estimate effects of body mass index (BMI) on an extensive set of circulating proteins.

METHODS

We used SomaLogic proteomic data from up to 2737 healthy participants from the INTERVAL study. Associations between self-reported BMI and 3622 unique plasma proteins were explored using linear regression. These were complemented by Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses using a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 654 BMI-associated polymorphisms from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of adult BMI. A disease enrichment analysis was performed using DAVID Bioinformatics 6.8 for proteins which were altered by BMI.

RESULTS

Observationally, BMI was associated with 1576 proteins (P < 1.4 × 10-5), with particularly strong evidence for a positive association with leptin and fatty acid-binding protein-4 (FABP4), and a negative association with sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). Observational estimates were likely confounded, but the GRS for BMI did not associate with measured confounders. MR analyses provided evidence for a causal relationship between BMI and eight proteins including leptin (0.63 standard deviation (SD) per SD BMI, 95% CI 0.48-0.79, P = 1.6 × 10-15), FABP4 (0.64 SD per SD BMI, 95% CI 0.46-0.83, P = 6.7 × 10-12) and SHBG (-0.45 SD per SD BMI, 95% CI -0.65 to -0.25, P = 1.4 × 10-5). There was agreement in the magnitude of observational and MR estimates (R2 = 0.33) and evidence that proteins most strongly altered by BMI were enriched for genes involved in cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence for a broad impact of adiposity on the human proteome. Proteins strongly altered by BMI include those involved in regulating appetite, sex hormones and inflammation; such proteins are also enriched for cardiovascular disease-related genes. Altogether, results help focus attention onto new proteomic signatures of obesity-related disease.

Body muscle gain and markers of cardiovascular disease susceptibility in young adulthood: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

The potential benefits of gaining body muscle for cardiovascular disease (CVD) susceptibility, and how these compare with the potential harms of gaining body fat, are unknown. We compared associations of early life changes in body lean mass and handgrip strength versus body fat mass with atherogenic traits measured in young adulthood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were from 3,227 offspring of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (39% male; recruited in 1991-1992). Limb lean and total fat mass indices (kg/m2) were measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans performed at age 10, 13, 18, and 25 y (across clinics occurring from 2001-2003 to 2015-2017). Handgrip strength was measured at 12 and 25 y, expressed as maximum grip (kg or lb/in2) and relative grip (maximum grip/weight in kilograms). Linear regression models were used to examine associations of change in standardised measures of these exposures across different stages of body development with 228 cardiometabolic traits measured at age 25 y including blood pressure, fasting insulin, and metabolomics-derived apolipoprotein B lipids. SD-unit gain in limb lean mass index from 10 to 25 y was positively associated with atherogenic traits including very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) triglycerides. This pattern was limited to lean gain in legs, whereas lean gain in arms was inversely associated with traits including VLDL triglycerides, insulin, and glycoprotein acetyls, and was also positively associated with creatinine (a muscle product and positive control). Furthermore, this pattern for arm lean mass index was specific to SD-unit gains occurring between 13 and 18 y, e.g., -0.13 SD (95% CI -0.22, -0.04) for VLDL triglycerides. Changes in maximum and relative grip from 12 to 25 y were both positively associated with creatinine, but only change in relative grip was also inversely associated with atherogenic traits, e.g., -0.12 SD (95% CI -0.18, -0.06) for VLDL triglycerides per SD-unit gain. Change in fat mass index from 10 to 25 y was more strongly associated with atherogenic traits including VLDL triglycerides, at 0.45 SD (95% CI 0.39, 0.52); these estimates were directionally consistent across sub-periods, with larger effect sizes with more recent gains. Associations of lean, grip, and fat measures with traits were more pronounced among males. Study limitations include potential residual confounding of observational estimates, including by ectopic fat within muscle, and the absence of grip measures in adolescence for estimates of grip change over sub-periods.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that muscle strengthening, as indicated by grip strength gain, was weakly associated with lower atherogenic trait levels in young adulthood, at a smaller magnitude than unfavourable associations of fat mass gain. Associations of muscle mass gain with such traits appear to be smaller and limited to gains occurring in adolescence. These results suggest that body muscle is less robustly associated with markers of CVD susceptibility than body fat and may therefore be a lower-priority intervention target.

Impact of sex hormone-binding globulin on the human phenome

Background: Sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) is a circulating glycoprotein and a regulator of sex hormone levels, which has been shown to influence various traits and diseases. The molecular nature of SHBG makes it a feasible target for preventative or therapeutic interventions. A systematic study of its effects across the human phenome may uncover novel associations. Methods: We used a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) approach to systematically appraise the potential functions of SHBG while reducing potential biases such as confounding and reverse causation common to the literature. We searched for potential causal effects of SHBG in UK Biobank (N = 334 977) and followed-up our top findings using two-sample MR analyses to evaluate whether estimates may be biased due to horizontal pleiotropy. Results: Results of the MR-pheWAS across over 21 000 outcome phenotypes identified 12 phenotypes associated with genetically elevated SHBG after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. Follow-up analysis using two-sample MR indicated the associations of increased natural log SHBG with higher impedance of the arms and whole body, lower pulse rate, lower bone density, higher odds of hip replacement, lower odds of high cholesterol or cholesterol medication use and higher odds of gallbladder removal. Conclusions: Our systematic MR-pheWAS of SHBG, which was comprehensive to the range of phenotypes available in UK Biobank, suggested that higher circulating SHBG affects the body impedance, bone density and cholesterol levels, among others. These phenotypes should be prioritized in future studies aiming to investigate the biological effects of SHBG or develop targets for therapeutic intervention.

Sex differences in systemic metabolites at four life stages: cohort study with repeated metabolomics

BACKGROUND

Males experience higher rates of coronary heart disease (CHD) than females, but the circulating traits underpinning this difference are poorly understood. We examined sex differences in systemic metabolites measured at four life stages, spanning childhood to middle adulthood.

METHODS

Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (7727 offspring, 49% male; and 6500 parents, 29% male). Proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H-NMR) spectroscopy from a targeted metabolomics platform was performed on EDTA-plasma or serum samples to quantify 229 systemic metabolites (including lipoprotein-subclass-specific lipids, pre-glycaemic factors, and inflammatory glycoprotein acetyls). Metabolites were measured in the same offspring once in childhood (mean age 8 years), twice in adolescence (16 years and 18 years) and once in early adulthood (25 years), and in their parents once in middle adulthood (50 years). Linear regression models estimated differences in metabolites for males versus females on each occasion (serial cross-sectional associations).

RESULTS

At 8 years, total lipids in very-low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) were lower in males; levels were higher in males at 16 years and higher still by 18 years and 50 years (among parents) for medium-or-larger subclasses. Larger sex differences at older ages were most pronounced for VLDL triglycerides-males had 0.19 standard deviations (SD) (95% CI = 0.12, 0.26) higher at 18 years, 0.50 SD (95% CI = 0.42, 0.57) higher at 25 years, and 0.62 SD (95% CI = 0.55, 0.68) higher at 50 years. Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, apolipoprotein-B, and glycoprotein acetyls were generally lower in males across ages. The direction and magnitude of effects were largely unchanged when adjusting for body mass index measured at the time of metabolite assessment on each occasion.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that males begin to have higher VLDL triglyceride levels in adolescence, with larger sex differences at older ages. Sex differences in other CHD-relevant metabolites, including LDL cholesterol, show the opposite pattern with age, with higher levels among females. Such life course trends may inform causal analyses with clinical endpoints in specifying traits which underpin higher age-adjusted CHD rates commonly seen among males.

Adiposity, metabolites, and colorectal cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Higher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood.

METHODS

We examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models.

RESULTS

In sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relations. In multivariable MR analyses, associations of BMI and WHR with CRC were not attenuated following adjustment for representative metabolite classes, e.g., the univariable IVW OR for BMI with CRC was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.26), and this became 1.11 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.26) when adjusting for cholesterol in low-density lipoprotein particles.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that higher BMI more greatly raises CRC risk among men, whereas higher WHR more greatly raises CRC risk among women. Adiposity was associated with numerous metabolic alterations, but none of these explained associations between adiposity and CRC. More detailed metabolomic measures are likely needed to clarify the mechanistic pathways.

Puberty timing and adiposity change across childhood and adolescence: disentangling cause and consequence

STUDY QUESTION

Is earlier puberty more likely a result of adiposity gain in childhood than a cause of adiposity gain in adulthood?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Pre-pubertal fat mass is associated with earlier puberty timing but puberty timing is not associated with post-pubertal fat mass change.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Age at puberty onset has decreased substantially in the last several decades. Whether reducing childhood adiposity prevents earlier puberty and if early puberty prevention itself also has additional independent benefits for prevention of adult adiposity is not well understood.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Prospective birth cohort study of 4176 participants born in 1991/1992 with 18 232 repeated measures of fat mass from age 9 to 18 years.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We used repeated measures of height from 5 to 20 years to identify puberty timing (age at peak height velocity, aPHV) and repeated measures of directly measured fat mass from age 9 to 18 years, from a contemporary UK birth cohort study to model fat mass trajectories by chronological age and by time before and after puberty onset. We then examined associations of these trajectories with puberty timing separately in females and males.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

In models by chronological age, a 1-year later aPHV was associated with 20.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 18.6-22.4%) and 23.4% (95% (CI): 21.3-25.5%) lower fat mass in females and males, respectively, at 9 years. These differences were smaller at age 18 years: 7.8% (95% (CI): 5.9-9.6%) and 12.4% (95% (CI): 9.6-15.2%) lower fat mass in females and males per year later aPHV. Trajectories of fat mass by time before and after puberty provided strong evidence for an association of pre-pubertal fat mass with puberty timing, and little evidence of an association of puberty timing with post-pubertal fat mass change. The role of chance is likely to be small in this study given the large sample sizes available.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Participants included in our analyses were more socially advantaged than those excluded. The findings of this work may not apply to non-White populations and further work examining associations of puberty timing and fat mass in other ethnicities is required.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Previous research has relied on self-reported measures of puberty timing such as age of voice breaking in males, has lacked data on pre-and post-pubertal adiposity together and relied predominantly on indirect measures of adiposity such as BMI. This has led to conflicting results on the nature and direction of the association between puberty timing and adiposity in females and males. Our work provides important clarity on this, suggesting that prevention of adiposity in childhood is key for prevention of early puberty, adult adiposity and associated cardiovascular risk. In contrast, our findings suggest that prevention of early puberty without prevention of childhood adiposity would have little impact on prevention of adult adiposity.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (Grant ref: 102215/2/13/2) and the University of Bristol provide core support for Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). L.M.O.K. is supported by a UK Medical Research Council Population Health Scientist fellowship (MR/M014509/1) and a Health Research Board (HRB) of Ireland Emerging Investigator Award (EIA-FA-2019-007 SCaRLeT). J.A.B. is supported by the Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol and the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund (204813/Z/16/Z). L.D.H. and A.F. are supported by Career Development Awards from the UK Medical Research Council (grants MR/M020894/1 and MR/M009351/1, respectively). All authors work in a unit that receives funds from the UK Medical Research Council (grant MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6). No competing interests to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Early Metabolic Features of Genetic Liability to Type 2 Diabetes: Cohort Study With Repeated Metabolomics Across Early Life

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes develops for many years before diagnosis. We aimed to reveal early metabolic features characterizing liability to adult disease by examining genetic liability to adult type 2 diabetes in relation to metabolomic traits across early life.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Up to 4,761 offspring from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were studied. Linear models were used to examine effects of a genetic risk score (162 variants) for adult type 2 diabetes on 229 metabolomic traits (lipoprotein subclass-specific cholesterol and triglycerides, amino acids, glycoprotein acetyls, and others) measured at age 8 years, 16 years, 18 years, and 25 years. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was also conducted using genome-wide association study data on metabolomic traits in an independent sample of 24,925 adults.

RESULTS

At age 8 years, associations were most evident for type 2 diabetes liability (per SD higher) with lower lipids in HDL subtypes (e.g., -0.03 SD [95% CI -0.06, -0.003] for total lipids in very large HDL). At 16 years, associations were stronger with preglycemic traits, including citrate and with glycoprotein acetyls (0.05 SD; 95% CI 0.01, 0.08), and at 18 years, associations were stronger with branched-chain amino acids. At 25 years, associations had strengthened with VLDL lipids and remained consistent with previously altered traits, including HDL lipids. Two-sample MR estimates among adults indicated persistent patterns of effect of disease liability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support perturbed HDL lipid metabolism as one of the earliest features of type 2 diabetes liability, alongside higher branched-chain amino acid and inflammatory levels. Several features are apparent in childhood as early as age 8 years, decades before the clinical onset of disease.

Examining associations between physical activity and cardiovascular mortality using negative control outcomes

BACKGROUND

The purpose of a negative control is to reproduce a condition that cannot involve the hypothesized causal mechanism, but does involve the same sources of bias and confounding that may distort the primary association of interest. Observational studies suggest physical inactivity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), although potential sources of bias, including reverse causation and residual confounding, make it difficult to infer causality. The aim was to employ a negative control outcome to explore the extent to which the association between physical activity and CVD mortality is explained by confounding.

METHODS

The sample comprised 104 851 participants (aged 47 ± 17 years; 45.4% male) followed up over mean (SD) 9.4 ± 4.5 years, recruited from the Health Survey for England and the Scottish Health Survey.

RESULTS

There were 10 309 deaths, of which 3109 were attributed to CVD and 157 to accidents (negative control outcome). Accidental death was related to age, male sex, smoking, longstanding illness and psychological distress, with some evidence of social patterning. This confounding structure was similar to that seen with CVD mortality, suggesting that our negative control outcome was appropriate. Physical activity (per SD unit increase in MET-hr-wk) was inversely associated with CVD [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.75; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70, 0.80]; the point estimate between physical activity and accidental death was in the same direction but of lesser magnitude (HR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.69, 1.07). A linear dose-response pattern was observed for physical activity and CVD but not with the negative control.

CONCLUSIONS

Inverse associations between physical activity and risk of CVD mortality are likely causal but of a smaller magnitude than commonly observed. Negative control studies have the potential to improve causal inference within the physical activity field.

Gender Differences for Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Complications and Healthcare Utilization

INTRODUCTION

The influence of patient gender on complications and healthcare utilization remains unexplored. The purpose of the present study was to determine if patient gender significantly affected outcomes following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of THA and TKA patients was performed using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2002 to 2011. Only patients who underwent elective procedures and those with complete perioperative data were included. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compare the rates of adverse events between male and female cohorts while controlling for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 6,123,637 patients were included in the study (31.2% THA and 68.8% TKA). The cohort was 61.1% female. While males had a lower rate of any adverse event (odds ratio [OR] = 0.8, P < .001), urinary tract infection (OR = 0.4, P < .001), deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism (OR = 0.9, P < .001), and blood transfusion (OR = 0.5, P < .001), male gender was associated with statistically significant increases in the rates of death (OR = 1.6, P < .001), acute kidney injury (OR = 1.6, P < .001), cardiac arrest (OR = 1.7, P < .001), myocardial infarction (OR = 1.6, P < .001), pneumonia (OR = 1.1, P < .001), sepsis (OR = 1.6, P < .001), surgical site infection (OR = 1.4, P < .001), and wound dehiscence (OR = 1.4, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Males had increased rates of many individual adverse events. Females had higher rates of urinary tract infection, which translated to an overall higher rate of adverse events in females because of the rarity of the other individual adverse events.

Do worse baseline risk factors explain the association of healthy obesity with increased mortality risk? Whitehall II Study

OBJECTIVE

To describe 20-year risk factor trajectories according to initial weight/health status and investigate the extent to which baseline differences explain greater mortality among metabolically healthy obese (MHO) individuals than healthy non-obese individuals.

METHODS

The sample comprised 6529 participants in the Whitehall II study who were measured serially between 1991-1994 and 2012-2013. Baseline weight (non-obese or obese; body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2) and health status (healthy or unhealthy; two or more of hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), high triglycerides, high glucose, and high homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)) were defined. The relationships of baseline weight/health status with 20-year trajectories summarizing ~25,000 observations of systolic and diastolic blood pressures, HDL-C, triglycerides, glucose, and HOMA-IR were investigated using multilevel models. Relationships of baseline weight/health status with all-cause mortality up until July 2015 were investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Trajectories tended to be consistently worse for the MHO group compared to the healthy non-obese group (e.g., glucose by 0.21 (95% CI 0.09, 0.33; p < 0.001) mmol/L at 20-years of follow-up). Consequently, the MHO group had a greater risk of mortality (hazard ratio 2.11 (1.24, 3.58; p = 0.006)) when the referent group comprised a random sample of healthy non-obese individuals. This estimate, however, attenuated (1.34 (0.85, 2.13; p = 0.209)) when the referent group was matched to the MHO group on baseline risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Worse baseline risk factors may explain any difference in mortality risk between obese and non-obese groups both labelled as healthy, further challenging the concept of MHO.

Does peritrochanteric fat thickness increase the risk of early reoperation for infection or wound complications following total hip arthroplasty?

Background

Radiographically measured subcutaneous peri-incisional tissue depth has been correlated with post-operative surgical site infection after cardiac, cervical spine, and total knee surgery. Its impact following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has not been studied. We compare the interobserver reliability of measuring peritrochanteric fat thickness on pre-operative radiographs and hypothesize that these measurements are a reproducible way to predict acute post-operative wound complications and infection in patients undergoing THA.

Methods

A retrospective case-control analysis was performed at a single institution. Patients taken to the operating room within 90 days of their primary THA for a wound complication or deep infection between 2008 and 2016 were identified. Patients <18 years old, those with history of open surgery on the affected hip, or with inadequate radiographs were excluded. Patients were matched 1:1 for gender, age, BMI, and ASA score to THA patients without early wound complications.

Results

All radiographic measurements performed were found to have excellent inter-rater reliabilities (range 0.96-0.98). There was no difference in peritrochanteric fat thickness measurements between the two groups including the sourcil to skin surface (89.5 mm vs. 91.9 mm, p = 0.5), tip of greater trochanter to skin surface (52.9 mm vs. 53.7 mm, p = 0.8), and lateral greater trochanter to skin surface (36.0 mm vs. 37.8 mm, p = 0.6) measurements.

Conclusion

Contrary to other previously reported surgical procedures, radiographic measurement of subcutaneous depth is not a valid tool for predicting a return to the OR for wound complications in the early post-operative period following primary total hip arthroplasty.

Associations of Body Mass and Fat Indexes With Cardiometabolic Traits

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI) is criticized for not distinguishing fat from lean mass and ignoring fat distribution, leaving its ability to detect health effects unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare BMI with total and regional fat indexes from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry in their associations with cardiometabolic traits. Duration of exposure to and change in each index across adolescence were examined in relation to detailed traits in young adulthood.

METHODS

BMI was examined alongside total, trunk, arm, and leg fat indexes (each in kilograms per square meter) from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry at ages 10 and 18 years in relation to 230 traits from targeted metabolomics at age 18 years in 2,840 offspring from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

RESULTS

Higher total fat mass index and BMI at age 10 years were similarly associated with cardiometabolic traits at age 18 years, including higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure, higher very low-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, higher triglycerides, and higher insulin and glycoprotein acetyls. Associations were stronger for both indexes measured at age 18 years and for gains in each index from age 10 to 18 years (e.g., 0.45 SDs [95% confidence interval: 0.38 to 0.53] in glycoprotein acetyls per SD unit gain in fat mass index vs. 0.38 SDs [95% confidence interval: 0.27 to 0.48] per SD unit gain in BMI). Associations resembled those for trunk fat index. Higher lean mass index was weakly associated with traits and was not protective against higher fat mass index.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study support abdominal fatness as a primary driver of cardiometabolic dysfunction and BMI as a useful tool for detecting its effects.

Obesity and loss of disease-free years owing to major non-communicable diseases: a multicohort study

BACKGROUND

Obesity increases the risk of several chronic diseases, but the extent to which the obesity-related loss of disease-free years varies by lifestyle category and across socioeconomic groups is unclear. We estimated the number of years free from major non-communicable diseases in adults who are overweight and obese, compared with those who are normal weight.

METHODS

We pooled individual-level data on body-mass index (BMI) and non-communicable diseases from men and women with no initial evidence of these diseases in European cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis in Working Populations consortium. BMI was assessed at baseline (1991-2008) and non-communicable diseases (incident type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) were ascertained via linkage to records from national health registries, repeated medical examinations, or self-report. Disease-free years from age 40 years to 75 years associated with underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2), overweight (≥25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2), and obesity (class I [mild] ≥30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2; class II-III [severe] ≥35 kg/m2) compared with normal weight (≥18·5 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2) were estimated.

FINDINGS

Of 137 503 participants from ten studies, we excluded 6973 owing to missing data and 10 349 with prevalent disease at baseline, resulting in an analytic sample of 120 181 participants. Of 47 127 men, 211 (0·4%) were underweight, 21 468 (45·6%) normal weight, 20 738 (44·0%) overweight, 3982 (8·4%) class I obese, and 728 (1·5%) class II-III obese. The corresponding numbers among the 73 054 women were 1493 (2·0%), 44 760 (61·3%), 19 553 (26·8%), 5670 (7·8%), and 1578 (2·2%), respectively. During 1 328 873 person-years at risk (mean follow-up 11·5 years [range 6·3-18·6]), 8159 men and 8100 women developed at least one non-communicable disease. Between 40 years and 75 years, the estimated number of disease-free years was 29·3 (95% CI 28·8-29·8) in normal-weight men and 29·4 (28·7-30·0) in normal-weight women. Compared with normal weight, the loss of disease-free years in men was 1·8 (95% CI -1·3 to 4·9) for underweight, 1·1 (0·7 to 1·5) for overweight, 3·9 (2·9 to 4·9) for class I obese, and 8·5 (7·1 to 9·8) for class II-III obese. The corresponding estimates for women were 0·0 (-1·4 to 1·4) for underweight, 1·1 (0·6 to 1·5) for overweight, 2·7 (1·5 to 3·9) for class I obese, and 7·3 (6·1 to 8·6) for class II-III obese. The loss of disease-free years associated with class II-III obesity varied between 7·1 and 10·0 years in subgroups of participants of different socioeconomic level, physical activity level, and smoking habit.

INTERPRETATION

Mild obesity was associated with the loss of one in ten, and severe obesity the loss of one in four potential disease-free years during middle and later adulthood. This increasing loss of disease-free years as obesity becomes more severe occurred in both sexes, among smokers and non-smokers, the physically active and inactive, and across the socioeconomic hierarchy.

FUNDING

NordForsk, UK Medical Research Council, US National Institute on Aging, Academy of Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, and Cancer Research UK.

Associations of device-measured physical activity across adolescence with metabolic traits: Prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multiple occasions of device-measured physical activity have not been previously examined in relation to metabolic traits. We described associations of total activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and sedentary time from three accelerometry measures taken across adolescence with detailed traits related to systemic metabolism.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

There were 1,826 male and female participants recruited at birth in 1991-1992 via mothers into the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children offspring cohort who attended clinics in 2003-2005, 2005-2006, and 2006-2008 who were included in ≥1 analysis. Waist-worn uniaxial accelerometers measured total activity (counts/min), MVPA (min/d), and sedentary time (min/d) over ≥3 d at mean age 12y, 14y, and 15y. Current activity (at age 15y), mean activity across occasions, interaction by previous activity, and change in activity were examined in relation to systolic and diastolic blood pressure, insulin, C-reactive protein, and 230 traits from targeted metabolomics (nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy), including lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides, amino and fatty acids, glycoprotein acetyls, and others, at age 15y. Mean current total activity was 477.5 counts/min (SD = 164.0) while mean MVPA and sedentary time durations were 23.6 min/d (SD = 17.9) and 522.1 min/d (SD = 66.0), respectively. Mean body mass index at age 15y was 21.4 kg/m2 (SD = 3.5). Correlations between first and last activity measurement occasions were low (e.g., r = 0.40 for counts/min). Current activity was most strongly associated with cholesterol and triglycerides in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particles (e.g., -0.002 mmol/l or -0.18 SD units; 95% CI -0.24--0.11 for triglycerides in chylomicrons and extremely large very low-density lipoprotein [XL VLDL]) and with glycoprotein acetyls (-0.02 mmol/l or -0.16 SD units; 95% CI -0.22--0.10), among others. Associations were similar for mean activity across 3 occasions. Attenuations were modest with adjustment for fat mass index based on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). In mutually adjusted models, higher MVPA and sedentary time were oppositely associated with cholesterol and triglycerides in VLDL and HDL particles (MVPA more strongly with glycoprotein acetyls and sedentary time more strongly with amino acids). Associations appeared less consistent for sedentary time than for MVPA based on longer-term measures and were weak for change in all activity types from age 12y-15y. Evidence was also weak for interaction between activity types at age 15y and previous activity measures in relation to most traits (minimum P = 0.003; median P = 0.26 for counts/min) with interaction coefficients mostly positive. Study limitations include modest sample sizes and relatively short durations of accelerometry measurement on each occasion (3-7 d) and of time lengths between first and last accelerometry occasions (<4 years), which can obscure patterns from chance variation and limit description of activity trajectories. Activity was also recorded using uniaxial accelerometers which predated more sensitive triaxial devices.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support associations of physical activity with metabolic traits that are small in magnitude and more robust for higher MVPA than lower sedentary time. Activity fluctuates over time, but associations of current activity with most metabolic traits do not differ by previous activity. This suggests that the metabolic effects of physical activity, if causal, depend on most recent engagement.

Influence of puberty timing on adiposity and cardiometabolic traits: A Mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND

Earlier puberty is widely linked with future obesity and cardiometabolic disease. We examined whether age at puberty onset likely influences adiposity and cardiometabolic traits independent of childhood adiposity.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

One-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses were conducted on up to 3,611 white-European female and male offspring from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort recruited at birth via mothers between 1 April 1991 and 31 December 1992. Time-sensitive exposures were age at menarche and age at voice breaking. Outcomes measured at age 18 y were body mass index (BMI), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-based fat and lean mass indices, blood pressure, and 230 cardiometabolic traits derived from targeted metabolomics (150 concentrations plus 80 ratios from nuclear magnetic resonance [NMR] spectroscopy covering lipoprotein subclasses of cholesterol and triglycerides, amino acids, inflammatory glycoproteins, and others). Adjustment was made for pre-pubertal BMI measured at age 8 y. For negative control MR analyses, BMI and cardiometabolic trait measures taken at age 8 y (before puberty, and which therefore cannot be an outcome of puberty itself) were used. For replication analyses, 2-sample MR was conducted using summary genome-wide association study data on up to 322,154 adults for post-pubertal BMI, 24,925 adults for post-pubertal NMR cardiometabolic traits, and 13,848 children for pre-pubertal obesity (negative control). Like observational estimates, 1-sample MR estimates in ALSPAC using 351 polymorphisms for age at menarche (explaining 10.6% of variance) among 2,053 females suggested that later age at menarche (per year) was associated with -1.38 kg/m2 of BMI at age 18 y (or -0.34 SD units, 95% CI -0.46, -0.23; P = 9.77 × 10-09). This coefficient attenuated 10-fold upon adjustment for BMI at age 8 y, to -0.12 kg/m2 (or -0.03 SDs, 95% CI -0.13, 0.07; P = 0.55). Associations with blood pressure were similar, but associations across other traits were small and inconsistent. In negative control MR analyses, later age at menarche was associated with -0.77 kg/m2 of pre-pubertal BMI measured at age 8 y (or -0.39 SDs, 95% CI -0.50, -0.29; P = 6.28 × 10-13), indicating that variants influencing menarche also influence BMI before menarche. Cardiometabolic trait associations were weaker and less consistent among males and both sexes combined. Higher BMI at age 8 y (per 1 kg/m2 using 95 polymorphisms for BMI explaining 3.4% of variance) was associated with earlier menarche among 2,648 females (by -0.26 y, 95% CI -0.37, -0.16; P = 1.16 × 10-06), likewise among males and both sexes combined. In 2-sample MR analyses using 234 polymorphisms and inverse variance weighted (IVW) regression, each year later age at menarche was associated with -0.81 kg/m2 of adult BMI (or -0.17 SD units, 95% CI -0.21, -0.12; P = 4.00 × 10-15). Associations were weaker with cardiometabolic traits. Using 202 polymorphisms, later menarche was associated with lower odds of childhood obesity (IVW-based odds ratio = 0.52 per year later, 95% CI 0.48, 0.57; P = 6.64 × 10-15). Study limitations include modest sample sizes for 1-sample MR, lack of inference to non-white-European populations, potential selection bias through modest completion rates of puberty questionnaires, and likely disproportionate measurement error of exposures by sex. The cardiometabolic traits examined were heavily lipid-focused and did not include hormone-related traits such as insulin and insulin-like growth factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that puberty timing has a small influence on adiposity and cardiometabolic traits and that preventive interventions should instead focus on reducing childhood adiposity.

Can the use of an inclinometer improve the positioning of the acetabular component in total hip arthroplasty?

Aims

Accurate placement of the acetabular component is essential in total hip arthroplasty (THA). The purpose of this study was to determine if the ability to achieve inclination of the acetabular component within the 'safe-zone' of 30° to 50° could be improved with the use of an inclinometer.

Patients and Methods

We reviewed 167 primary THAs performed by a single surgeon over a period of 14 months. Procedures were performed at two institutions: an inpatient hospital, where an inclinometer was used (inclinometer group); and an ambulatory centre, where an inclinometer was not used as it could not be adequately sterilized (control group). We excluded 47 patients with a body mass index (BMI) of > 40 kg/m², age of > 68 years, or a surgical indication other than osteoarthritis whose treatment could not be undertaken in the ambulatory centre. There were thus 120 patients in the study, 68 in the inclinometer group and 52 in the control group. The inclination angles of the acetabular component were measured from de-identified plain radiographs by two blinded investigators who were not involved in the surgery. The effect of the use of the inclinometer on the inclination angle was determined using multivariate regression analysis.

Results

The mean inclination angle for the THAs in the inclinometer group was 42.9° (95% confidence interval (CI) 41.7° to 44.0°; range 29.0° to 63.8°) and 46.5° (95% CI 45.2° to 47.7°; range 32.8° to 63.2°) in the control group (p < 0.001). Regression analysis identified a 9.1% difference in inclination due to the use of an inclinometer (p < 0.001), and THAs performed without the inclinometer were three times more likely to result in inclination angles of > 50° (odds ratio (OR) 2.8, p = 0.036). The correlation coefficient for the interobserver reliability of the measurement of the two investigators was 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.97).

Conclusion

The use of a simple inclinometer resulted in a significant reduction in the number of outliers compared with a freehand technique. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:862-6.

Involvement of Residents Does Not Increase Postoperative Complications After Open Reduction Internal Fixation of Ankle Fractures: An Analysis of 3251 Cases

Ankle fractures are common injuries frequently treated by foot and ankle surgeons. Therefore, it has become a core competency for orthopedic residency training. Surgical educators must balance the task of training residents with optimizing patient outcomes and minimizing morbidity and mortality. The present study aimed to determine the effect of resident involvement on the 30-day postoperative complication rates after open reduction and internal fixation of ankle fractures. A second objective of the present study was to determine the independent risk factors for complications after this procedure. We identified patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database who had undergone open reduction internal fixation for ankle fractures from 2005 to 2012. Propensity score matching was used to help account for a potential selection bias. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify the independent risk factors associated with short-term postoperative complications. A total of 3251 open reduction internal fixation procedures for ankle fractures were identified, of which 959 (29.4%) had resident involvement. Univariate (2.82% versus 4.54%; p = .024) and multivariate (odds ratio 0.71; p = .75) analyses demonstrated that resident involvement did not increase short-term complication rates. The independent risk factors for complications after open reduction internal fixation of ankle fractures included insulin-dependent diabetes, increasing age, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and longer operative times.

The Electrocardiogram in General Practice: Its Use and Its Interpretation

General practitioners in one health district were surveyed by postal questionnaire (including 15 sample electrocardiogram tracings) to assess their usage and competence in interpretation of the electrocardiogram. A response rate of 60% was achieved, of whom 40% said they used the electrocardiogram at least monthly and 43% used it 'always' or 'usually' in patients with suspected myocardial infarction at home. Overall competence in recognizing a variety of abnormalities was felt to be good. Recent qualification, the possession of a higher qualification (MRCP/MRCGP) and frequency of usage were associated with better performance. Even so, unequivocal acute myocardial infarction was misdiagnosed by 20% of respondents. These findings have implications for the provision of electrocardiographic services in primary care and the management of patients in the home with suspected myocardial infarction, particularly with the advent of thrombolytic therapy.

The Influence of Patient Gender on Morbidity Following Total Hip or Total Knee Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Little research has focused on the influence of gender on postoperative morbidity following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This study aimed to compare operative time, length of stay, 30-day complications, and readmissions based on patient gender.

METHODS

The prospectively collected National Surgical Quality Improvement Program registry from 2005 to 2014 was queried to identify primary elective THA and TKA patients. Multivariate regression was used to compare the rates of 30-day adverse events, rates of readmission, operative time, and postoperative length of stay between men and women. Multivariate analyses were controlled for baseline patient characteristics and procedure type.

RESULTS

A total of 173,777 patients were included (63.5% TKA and 36.5% THA). Male gender increased the risk of multiple adverse events, including death (relative risk [RR] 1.1, P < .001), surgical site infection (RR 1.2, P < .001), sepsis (RR 1.4, P < .001), cardiac arrest (RR 1.8, P < .001), and return to the operating room (RR 1.3, P < .001). Men had decreased overall adverse events (RR 0.8, P < .001) secondary to a lower risk of urinary tract infection (RR 0.5, P < .001) and blood transfusion (RR 0.7, P < .001), which were prevalent adverse events. Men had an increased risk of 30-day readmission (RR 1.2, P < .001), slightly increased operative time (+6 minutes, P < .001), and slightly decreased length of stay (-0.2 days, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Men had increased risk of multiple individual adverse events including death, surgical site infection, cardiac arrest, return to the operating room, and readmission. Conversely, women had increased risk of urinary tract infection and blood transfusion.

First Record of Leucocytozoon (Haemosporida: Leucocytozoidae) in Amazonia: Evidence for Rarity in Neotropical Lowlands or Lack of Sampling for This Parasite Genus?

Birds harbor an astonishing diversity of haemosporidian parasites belonging to the genera Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium. Currently there are more than 250 morphologically described avian haemosporidian species and 2,828 unique lineages found in virtually all avian clades and zoogeographic regions, except for Antarctica. Our report is based on PCR and microscopic screening of 1,302 individual avian samples from Brazil to detect the underrepresented genus Leucocytozoon. This survey primarily focuses on passerine birds collected from Amazonia, the Atlantic Rain Forest, and Pantanal. We also summarize studies conducted in Brazil that report haemosporidian prevalence using both microscopy and molecular tools and present for the first time a record of Leucocytozoon infecting an avian host population in Amazonia. Based on our findings, we suggest that high average temperatures may be constraining both the distribution and diversity of Leucocytozoon in lowland tropical South America.

A Bundle of Relations: Collections, Collecting, and Communities

Anthropology has always involved collections and collecting. Collections helped give rise to the discipline's formation and were integral to theoretical perspectives rooted in hierarchies of race and technology in the nineteenth century. With the disavowal of these perspectives, collecting, and its resulting collections, remained an ongoing but unacknowledged activity. The material (re)turn in the 1980s brought anthropology's material legacies under renewed scrutiny by repositioning objects as having histories and agency. Ethnographies of collecting have helped reveal the often obscured collaborations that were, and are, critical to anthropological knowledge. Collaborations with indigenous communities involving collections are helping to address the discipline's asymmetry by challenging anthropological categories and authority. In the process, experimental ethnographies through digital and nondigital means are demonstrating that collections are profoundly relational. This relational perspective is helping to chart new directions for work in museums and the wider discipline.

Stability-preserving decompression in degenerative versus congenital spinal stenosis: demographic patterns and patient outcomes

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Although lumbar spinal stenosis often presents as a degenerative condition (degenerative stenosis [DS]), some patients present with symptoms from lifelong narrowing of the spinal canal. These patients have congenital stenosis (CS) and present with symptoms of stenosis at a younger age. Patients with CS often have a distinct pathophysiology with fewer degenerative changes but present with multilevel involvement. In the setting of neurologic symptoms, decompression alone while preserving stability has been proposed for both patient populations.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to evaluate if the different etiology for narrowing in CS and DS results in a different natural history of pain progression, different locations requiring decompression, and different outcomes following a stability-preserving decompression procedure.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

This study used a retrospective cohort study patient sample: We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients of a single surgeon with DS or CS who underwent surgical decompression without fusion between 2008 and 2014. Patients were excluded if they had undergone a previous lumbar surgical procedure (decompression or fusion) or follow-up less than 12 months.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Pre- and postoperative clinical outcome scores including visual analogue scale (VAS) and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were recorded. Postoperatively, data were collected regarding complications, the presence of new radicular or myelopathic symptoms, and necessity of reoperation in the lumbar spine.

METHODS

Demographic information included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, and Charleston Comorbidity Index (CCI). Preoperative clinical symptoms as well as the presence of lower extremity radiculopathy and claudication were evaluated. Patients were determined to have a diagnosis of CS by the treating surgeon if primary radiographs revealed shortened pedicles and decreased cross-sectional area of the spinal canal as detailed by previous studies. Binary outcomes were compared between congenital and degenerative cohorts using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Multivariate regressions controlled for baseline patient and operative characteristics.

RESULTS

The average age of the DS cohort was 66.7±10.7 years, whereas for the CS group, it was 47.1±9.2 years. Average follow-up was 27.6 months. The patients with DS had significantly more comorbidities as shown by the CCI score (2.8±1.6 vs. 0.5±0.6); p<.001) and the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥3 (52.8% vs. 11.1%; p<.001). Patients with CS presented with higher VAS back (8.0 vs. 5.1; p=.008) and leg (7.9 vs. 4.5; p<.001) scores. Patients with DS presented with significantly greater duration of preoperative back pain and leg pain (42.7 vs. 30.5 months; p=.042). Postoperatively, there were no significant differences in VAS back, leg, or ODI scores. However, a trend toward a lower VAS leg score was present in the patients with CS when compared with patients with DS (2.6±3.0 vs. 4.2±3.2; p<.117). Both patient groups experienced similar levels of symptomatic relief and improvement in VAS and ODI scores. There were no significant differences in new-onset radicular symptoms requiring conservative treatment or reoperation. In both groups combined, 81.9% of patients reported resolution of lower extremity symptoms at final follow-up. Overall, 20.6% of patients experienced new lower-extremity radicular symptoms after a period of resolution of symptoms postoperatively. There were significantly more reoperations following surgical decompression in patients with DS (13.9% vs. 2.8%; p=.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with CS and patients with DS respond well to decompression alone, without a supplemental fusion, despite differences in pain experience and presentation. The localization of pathology requiring decompression is similar. The patients with DS were more susceptible to require another operation resulting in a fusion, which confirms the theory that initial microinstability can progress in DS, but is likely not part of the disease process in CS. At just over 2 years after decompression, patients with CS may not need to be treated by a fusion in the setting of lower back pain; however, longer-term follow up is necessary to further assess these outcomes.

Improving risk estimates for metabolically healthy obesity and mortality using a refined healthy reference group

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to re-examine mortality risk estimates for metabolically healthy obesity by using a 'stable' healthy non-obese referent group.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Participants were 5427 men and women (aged 65.9 ± 9.4 years, 45.9% men) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 (vs non-obese as below this threshold). Based on blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glycated hemoglobin and C-reactive protein, participants were classified as 'healthy' (0 or 1 metabolic abnormality) or 'unhealthy' (≥2 metabolic abnormalities).

RESULTS

Totally, 671 deaths were observed over an average follow-up of 8 years. When defining the referent group based on 1 clinical assessment, the unhealthy non-obese (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.45) and unhealthy obese (HR = 1.29; CI: 1.05, 1.60) were at greater risk of all-cause mortality compared to the healthy non-obese, yet no excess risk was seen in the healthy obese (HR = 1.14; CI: 0.83, 1.52). When we re-defined the referent group based on 2 clinical assessments, effect estimates were accentuated and healthy obesity was at increased risk of mortality (HR = 2.67; CI: 1.64, 4.34).

CONCLUSION

An unstable healthy referent group may make 'healthy obesity' appear less harmful by obscuring the benefits of remaining never obese without metabolic dysfunction.

Overweight, obesity, and risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity: pooled analysis of individual-level data for 120 813 adults from 16 cohort studies from the USA and Europe

BACKGROUND

Although overweight and obesity have been studied in relation to individual cardiometabolic diseases, their association with risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is poorly understood. Here we aimed to establish the risk of incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity (ie, at least two from: type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke) in adults who are overweight and obese compared with those who are a healthy weight.

METHODS

We pooled individual-participant data for BMI and incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity from 16 prospective cohort studies from the USA and Europe. Participants included in the analyses were 35 years or older and had data available for BMI at baseline and for type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke at baseline and follow-up. We excluded participants with a diagnosis of diabetes, coronary heart disease, or stroke at or before study baseline. According to WHO recommendations, we classified BMI into categories of healthy (20·0-24·9 kg/m2), overweight (25·0-29·9 kg/m2), class I (mild) obesity (30·0-34·9 kg/m2), and class II and III (severe) obesity (≥35·0 kg/m2). We used an inclusive definition of underweight (<20 kg/m2) to achieve sufficient case numbers for analysis. The main outcome was cardiometabolic multimorbidity (ie, developing at least two from: type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke). Incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity was ascertained via resurvey or linkage to electronic medical records (including hospital admissions and death). We analysed data from each cohort separately using logistic regression and then pooled cohort-specific estimates using random-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

Participants were 120  813 adults (mean age 51·4 years, range 35-103; 71 445 women) who did not have diabetes, coronary heart disease, or stroke at study baseline (1973-2012). During a mean follow-up of 10·7 years (1995-2014), we identified 1627 cases of multimorbidity. After adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, compared with individuals with a healthy weight, the risk of developing cardiometabolic multimorbidity in overweight individuals was twice as high (odds ratio [OR] 2·0, 95% CI 1·7-2·4; p<0·0001), almost five times higher for individuals with class I obesity (4·5, 3·5-5·8; p<0·0001), and almost 15 times higher for individuals with classes II and III obesity combined (14·5, 10·1-21·0; p<0·0001). This association was noted in men and women, young and old, and white and non-white participants, and was not dependent on the method of exposure assessment or outcome ascertainment. In analyses of different combinations of cardiometabolic conditions, odds ratios associated with classes II and III obesity were 2·2 (95% CI 1·9-2·6) for vascular disease only (coronary heart disease or stroke), 12·0 (8·1-17·9) for vascular disease followed by diabetes, 18·6 (16·6-20·9) for diabetes only, and 29·8 (21·7-40·8) for diabetes followed by vascular disease.

INTERPRETATION

The risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity increases as BMI increases; from double in overweight people to more than ten times in severely obese people compared with individuals with a healthy BMI. Our findings highlight the need for clinicians to actively screen for diabetes in overweight and obese patients with vascular disease, and pay increased attention to prevention of vascular disease in obese individuals with diabetes.

FUNDING

NordForsk, Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Finnish Work Environment Fund, and Academy of Finland.

Healthy obesity and risk of accelerated functional decline and disability

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Some obese adults have a normal metabolic profile and are considered 'healthy', but whether they experience faster ageing than healthy normal-weight adults is unknown. We compared decline in physical function, worsening of bodily pain and likelihood of future mobility limitation and disability between these groups.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

This was a population-based observational study using repeated measures over 2 decades (Whitehall II cohort data). Normal-weight (body mass index (BMI) 18.5-24.9 kg m-2), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg m-2) and obese (⩾30.0 kg m-2) adults were considered metabolically healthy if they had 0 or 1 of 5 risk factors (hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high triacylglycerol, high blood glucose and insulin resistance) in 1991/1994. Decline in physical function and worsening of bodily pain based on change in Short Form Health Survey items using eight repeated measures over 18.8 years (1991/1994-2012/2013) were compared between metabolic-BMI groups using linear mixed models. Odds of mobility limitation based on objective walking speed (slowest tertile) and of disability based on limitations in ⩾1 of 6 basic activities of daily living, each using three repeated measures over 8.3 years (2002/2004-2012/2013), were compared using logistic mixed models.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted mixed models on up to 6635 adults (initial mean age 50 years; 70% male), healthy normal-weight adults experienced a decline in physical function of -3.68 (95% CI=-4.19, -3.16) score units per decade; healthy obese adults showed an additional -3.48 (-4.88, -2.08) units decline. Healthy normal-weight adults experienced a -0.49 (-1.11, 0.12) score unit worsening of bodily pain per decade; healthy obese adults had an additional -2.23 (-3.78, -0.69) units worsening. Healthy obesity versus healthy normal-weight conferred 3.39 (2.29, 5.02) times higher odds of mobility limitation and 3.75 (1.94, 7.24) times higher odds of disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that obesity, even if metabolically healthy, accelerates age-related declines in functional ability and poses a threat to independence in older age.