Performance of amplicon and capture based next-generation sequencing approaches for the epidemiological surveillance of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 and other variants of concern

To control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, healthcare systems have focused on ramping up their capacity for epidemiological surveillance through viral whole genome sequencing. In this paper, we tested the performance of two protocols of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid enrichment, an amplicon enrichment using different versions of the ARTIC primer panel and a hybrid-capture method using KAPA RNA Hypercap. We focused on the challenge of the Omicron variant sequencing, the advantages of automated library preparation and the influence of the bioinformatic analysis in the final consensus sequence. All 94 samples were sequenced using Illumina iSeq 100 and analysed with two bioinformatic pipelines: a custom-made pipeline and an Illumina-owned pipeline. We were unsuccessful in sequencing six samples using the capture enrichment due to low reads. On the other hand, amplicon dropout and mispriming caused the loss of mutation G21987A and the erroneous addition of mutation T15521A respectively using amplicon enrichment. Overall, we found high sequence agreement regardless of method of enrichment, bioinformatic pipeline or the use of automation for library preparation in eight different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Automation and the use of a simple app for bioinformatic analysis can simplify the genotyping process, making it available for more diagnostic facilities and increasing global vigilance.

The impact of conflict on infectious disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Conflict situations, armed or not, have been associated with emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. This review aims to identify the pathways through which infectious diseases emerge within conflict situations and to outline appropriate infectious disease preparedness and response strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed representing published evidence from January 2000 to October 2023. Ovid Medline and Embase were utilised to obtain literature on infectious diseases in any conflict settings. The systematic review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis). No geographical restrictions were imposed.

FINDINGS

Our review identified 51 studies covering AIDS, Hepatitis B, Tuberculosis, Cholera, Coronavirus 2, Ebola, Poliomyelitis, Malaria, Leishmaniasis, Measles, Diphtheria, Dengue and Acute Bacterial Meningitis within conflict settings in Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Africa since October 2023. Key factors contributing to disease emergence and transmission in conflict situations included population displacement, destruction of vital infrastructure, reduction in functioning healthcare systems and healthcare personnel, disruption of disease control programmes (including reduced surveillance, diagnostic delays, and interrupted vaccinations), reduced access by healthcare providers to populations within areas of active conflict, increased population vulnerability due to limited access to healthcare services, and disruptions in the supply chain of safe water, food, and medication. To mitigate these infectious disease risks reported preparedness and response strategies included both disease-specific intervention strategies as well as broader concepts such as the education of conflict-affected populations through infectious disease awareness programmes, investing in and enabling health care in locations with displaced populations, intensifying immunisation campaigns, and ensuring political commitment and intersectoral collaborations between governments and international organisations.

CONCLUSION

Conflict plays a direct and indirect role in the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases. The findings from this review can assist decision-makers in the development of evidence-based preparedness and response strategies for the timely and effective containment of infectious disease outbreaks in conflict zones and amongst conflict-driven displaced populations.

FUNDING

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control under specific contract No. 22 ECD.13,154 within Framework contract ECDC/2019/001 Lot 1B.

Phenotypic and genetic characterization of antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella enterica serovar Choleraesuis isolates from humans and animals in Spain from 2006 to 2021

OBJECTIVES

While an increase in the levels of MDR in Salmonella enterica sevorar Choleraesuis has been reported in Europe, little is known about the situation in Spain. Therefore, we first aimed to assess the phenotypic resistance profile and to determine the presence of genetic determinants of resistance of S. Choleraesuis isolates collected in animal and human. Our second objective was to identify and characterize clusters of highly related isolates.

METHODS

We analysed 50 human and 45 animal isolates retrieved from 2006 to 2021 using the disc diffusion method and performed WGS followed by analyses of genetic determinants and phylogenetic analysis.

RESULTS

All isolates were of ST145 and corresponded to the variant Kunzendorf. Swine isolates harboured a significantly higher number of antimicrobial resistance genes than human isolates, and often carried plasmid replicons of the IncHI2/IncHI2A type (42% of all animal isolates). In addition, we identified several MDR S. Choleraesuis strains circulating in humans and swine between 2006 and 2021. The phylogenetic analyses identified four clades associated with specific patterns of resistance genes and plasmid replicons. The clades also included isolates that differed in terms of year and region of isolation as well as host of origin.

CONCLUSIONS

This One Health approach highlights that reducing human MDR S. Choleraesuis infections may require the adoption of strategies that not only seek to prevent cases in humans but also to characterize and reduce the infection burden in swine.

Effectiveness of XBB.1.5 Monovalent COVID-19 Vaccines During a Period of XBB.1.5 Dominance in EU/EEA Countries, October to November 2023: A VEBIS-EHR Network Study

Using a common protocol across seven countries in the European Union/European Economic Area, we estimated XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death in booster-eligible ≥ 65-year-olds, during October-November 2023. We linked electronic records to construct retrospective cohorts and used Cox models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and derive VE. VE for COVID-19 hospitalisation and death was, respectively, 67% (95%CI: 58-74) and 67% (95%CI: 42-81) in 65- to 79-year-olds and 66% (95%CI: 57-73) and 72% (95%CI: 51-85) in ≥ 80-year-olds. Results indicate that periodic vaccination of individuals ≥ 65 years has an ongoing benefit and support current vaccination strategies in the EU/EEA.

Validation of the prevalence to incidence conversion method for healthcare associated infections in long-term care facilities

INTRODUCTION

Residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are a population at high risk of developing severe healthcare associated infections (HAIs). In the assessment of HAIs in acute-care hospitals, selection bias can occur due to cases being over-represented: patients developing HAIs usually have longer lengths of stays compared to controls, and therefore have an increased probability of being sampled in PPS, leading to an overestimation of HAI prevalence. Our hypothesis was that in LTCFs, the opposite may occur: residents developing HAIs either may have a greater chance of being transferred to acute-care facilities or of dying, and therefore could be under-represented in PPS, leading to an underestimation of HAI prevalence. Our aim was to test this hypothesis by comparing HAI rates obtained through longitudinal and cross-sectional studies.

METHODS

Results from two studies conducted simultaneously in four LTCFs in Italy were compared: a longitudinal study promoted by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC, HALT4 longitudinal study, H4LS), and a PPS. Prevalence was estimated from the PPS and converted into incidence per year using an adapted version of the Rhame and Sudderth formula proposed by the ECDC. Differences between incidence rates calculated from the PPS results and obtained from H4LS were investigated using the Byar method for rate ratio (RR).

RESULTS

On the day of the PPS, HAI prevalence was 1.47% (95% confidence interval, CI 0.38-3.97), whereas the H4LS incidence rate was 3.53 per 1000 patient-days (PDs, 95% CI 2.99-4.08). Conversion of prevalence rates obtained through the PPS into incidence using the ECDC formula resulted in a rate of 0.86 per 1000 PDs (95% CI 0-2.68). Comparing the two rates, a RR of 0.24 (95% CI 0.03-2.03, p 0.1649) was found.

CONCLUSIONS

This study did not find significant differences between HAI incidence estimates obtained from a longitudinal study and through conversion from PPS data. Results of this study support the validity of the ECDC method.

Vaccine effectiveness against influenza hospitalisation in adults during the 2022/2023 mixed season of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B circulation, Europe: VEBIS SARI VE hospital network

We conducted a multicentre hospital-based test-negative case-control study to measure vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR-confirmed influenza in adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the 2022/2023 influenza season in Europe. Among 5547 SARI patients ≥18 years, 2963 (53%) were vaccinated against influenza. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 11% (95% CI: -23-36); 20% (95% CI: -4-39) against A(H3N2) and 56% (95% CI: 22-75) against B. During the 2022/2023 season, while VE against hospitalisation with influenza B was >55%, it was ≤20% for influenza A subtypes. While influenza vaccination should be a priority for future seasons, improved vaccines against influenza are needed.

Hospitalisations and Deaths Averted by COVID-19 Vaccination in Navarre, Spain, 2021-2022

In 2021-2022, most of the Spanish population received COVID-19 vaccines and a high proportion of them had SARS-CoV-2 infection. We estimated the rate of hospitalisations and deaths that were averted by risk reduction among vaccinated COVID-19 cases. Hospitalisations and deaths were analysed among COVID-19 cases confirmed in 2021 and 2022 in Navarre, Spain. To calculate the number of prevented outcomes by sex, age, comorbidities, and semester, the difference in the risk of each outcome between unvaccinated and vaccinated cases was multiplied by the number of vaccinated cases. COVID-19 vaccination coverage with any dose reached 88%, 86% with full vaccination, and 56% with a booster dose. The cumulative rates per 1000 inhabitants were 382 COVID-19 confirmed cases, 6.70 hospitalisations, and 1.15 deaths from COVID-19. The estimated rates of prevented events by vaccination were 16.33 hospitalisations and 3.39 deaths per 1000 inhabitants, which was 70.9% and 74.7% of expected events without vaccination, respectively. People aged 80 years and older or with major chronic conditions accounted for the majority of hospitalizations and deaths prevented by COVID-19 vaccination. One hospitalisation and death due to COVID-19 were averted for every 53 and 258 people vaccinated, respectively. The high COVID-19 vaccine effect in reducing the risk of severe outcomes and the high vaccination coverage in risk populations prevented three out of four hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 during a period of intense circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

Effectiveness and durability of a second COVID-19 booster against severe outcomes among older people in Norway: a population-based cohort study comparing mono- and bivalent booster doses

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the durability of the protection of a fourth dose of a monovalent or bivalent messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among older people during the predominant Omicron period is needed.

METHODS

We performed a population-based cohort study in Norway covering the time from 1 July 2022 to 15 January 2023, including individuals ≥75 years of age who had received at least a third dose. Using Cox proportional hazard models on severe COVID-19-associated outcome measures and all-cause mortality, we estimated the vaccine effectiveness of mono- and bivalent vaccines, comparing fourth- to third-dose recipients (>24 weeks ago). Vaccine status was included as a time-varying covariate and models were adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We included 408 073 individuals. A fourth dose with either monovalent or bivalent mRNA vaccine showed increased protection against COVID-19-associated mortality relative to a third dose in individuals ≥75 years of age. We estimated a protective effect for the bivalent BA.1 vaccine [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.32] relative to the bivalent BA.4-5 (aHR 0.27, 95% CI 0.14-0.56) and a monovalent dose (aHR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.45) 2-9 weeks after vaccination compared with recipients with a third dose >24 weeks ago. The increased protective effect waned with no added protection for the monovalent vaccine after 33 weeks compared with a third dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate an increased protective effect of a fourth dose against severe outcomes compared with a third dose, with decreasing effect with time since the last dose.

The Modification of the Illumina® CovidSeq™ Workflow for RSV Genomic Surveillance: The Genetic Variability of RSV during the 2022-2023 Season in Northwest Spain

There is growing interest in the molecular surveillance of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus and the monitorization of emerging mutations that could impair the efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis and treatments. A simple, scalable protocol for viral nucleic acid enrichment could improve the surveillance of RSV. We developed a protocol for RSV-A and B amplification based on the Illumina CovidSeq workflow using an RSV primer panel. A total of 135 viral genomes were sequenced from nasopharyngeal samples through the optimization steps of this panel, while an additional 15 samples were used to test the final version. Full coverage of the G gene and over 95% of the coverage of the F gene, the target of the available RSV antivirals or monoclonal antibodies, were obtained. The F:K68N mutation, associated with decreased nirsevimab activity, was detected in our facility. Additionally, phylogenetic analysis showed several sublineages in the 2022-2023 influenza season in Europe. Our protocol allows for a simple and scalable simultaneous amplification of the RSV-A and B whole genome, increasing the yield of RSV sequencing and reducing costs. Its application would allow the world to be ready for the detection of arising mutations in relation to the widespread use of nirsevimab for RSV prevention.

Monitoring COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death using electronic health registries in ≥65 years old population in six European countries, October 2021 to November 2022

BACKGROUND

Within the ECDC-VEBIS project, we prospectively monitored vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and COVID-19-related death using electronic health registries (EHR), between October 2021 and November 2022, in community-dwelling residents aged 65-79 and ≥80 years in six European countries.

METHODS

EHR linkage was used to construct population cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Navarre (Spain), Norway and Portugal. Using a common protocol, for each outcome, VE was estimated monthly over 8-week follow-up periods, allowing 1 month-lag for data consolidation. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and VE = (1 - aHR) × 100%. Site-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

For ≥80 years, considering unvaccinated as the reference, VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation decreased from 66.9% (95% CI: 60.1; 72.6) to 36.1% (95% CI: -27.3; 67.9) for the primary vaccination and from 95.6% (95% CI: 88.0; 98.4) to 67.7% (95% CI: 45.9; 80.8) for the first booster. Similar trends were observed for 65-79 years. The second booster VE against hospitalisation ranged between 82.0% (95% CI: 75.9; 87.0) and 83.9% (95% CI: 77.7; 88.4) for the ≥80 years and between 39.3% (95% CI: -3.9; 64.5) and 80.6% (95% CI: 67.2; 88.5) for 65-79 years. The first booster VE against COVID-19-related death declined over time for both age groups, while the second booster VE against death remained above 80% for the ≥80 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Successive vaccine boosters played a relevant role in maintaining protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death, in the context of decreasing VE over time. Multicountry data from EHR facilitate robust near-real-time VE monitoring in the EU/EEA and support public health decision-making.

Cost of the COVID-19 pandemic versus the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies in EU/UK/OECD: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic is substantial, with both direct and indirect costs playing a significant role.

DESIGN

A systematic literature review was conducted to estimate the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. All cost data were adjusted to the 2021 Euro, and interventions compared with null.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 2020 through 22 April 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies regarding COVID-19 outbreak or public health preparedness measures or interventions with outcome measures related to the direct and indirect costs for disease and preparedness and/or response in countries of the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA), the UK and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) of all relevant epidemiological designs which estimate cost within the selected time frame were considered eligible.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Studies were searched, screened and coded independently by two reviewers with high measure of inter-rater agreement. Data were extracted to a predefined data extraction sheet. The risk of bias was assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria checklist.

RESULTS

We included data from 41 economic studies. Ten studies evaluated the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 31 assessed the cost-benefit of public health surveillance, preparedness and response measures. Overall, the economic burden of the COVID-19 pandemic was found to be substantial. Community screening, bed provision policies, investing in personal-protective-equipment and vaccination strategies were cost-effective. Physical distancing measures were associated with health benefits; however, their cost-effectiveness was dependent on the duration, compliance and the phase of the epidemic in which it was implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 pandemic is associated with substantial short-term and long-term economic costs to healthcare systems, payers and societies, while interventions including testing and screening policies, vaccination and physical distancing policies were identified as those presenting cost-effective options to deal with the pandemic, dependent on population vaccination and the Re at the stage of the pandemic.

The Spatial Distribution of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever and Its Potential Vectors in Europe and Beyond

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is considered to be spreading across the globe, with many countries reporting new human CCHF cases in recent decades including Georgia, Türkiye, Albania, and, most recently, Spain. We update a human CCHF distribution map produced in 2015 to include global disease occurrence records to June 2022, and we include the recent records for Europe. The predicted distributions are based on long-established spatial modelling methods and are extended to include all European countries and the surrounding areas. The map produced shows the environmental suitability for the disease, taking into account the distribution of the most important known and potential tick vectors Hyalomma marginatum and Hyalomma lusitanicum, without which the disease cannot occur. This limits the disease's predicted distribution to the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean seaboard, along with Türkiye and the Caucasus, with a more patchy suitability predicted for inland Greece, the southern Balkans, and extending north to north-west France and central Europe. These updated CCHF maps can be used to identify the areas with the highest probability of disease and to therefore target areas where mitigation measures should currently be focused.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Cases and Hospitalizations in Navarre, Spain, 2022-2023

We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing outpatient and hospitalized cases in the 2022-2023 season. A test-negative design included a representative sample of outpatients and all hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) from October 2022 to May 2023 in Navarre, Spain. ILI patients were tested by PCR for influenza virus. Influenza vaccination status was compared between confirmed influenza cases and test-negative controls. Among 3321 ILI patients tested, IVE to prevent influenza cases was 34% (95% confidence interval (CI): 16 to 48) overall, 85% (95%CI: 63 to 94) against influenza B, and 28% (95%CI: 3 to 46) against A(H3N2). Among 558 outpatients, 222 (40%) were confirmed for influenza: 55% A(H3N2), 11% A(H1N1), and 31% B. Overall, IVE to prevent outpatient cases was 48% (95%CI: 8 to 70), 88% (95%CI: 3 to 98) against influenza B, and 50% (95%CI: -4 to 76) against A(H3N2). Of 2763 hospitalized patients, 349 (13%) were positive for influenza: 64% A(H3N2), 17% A(H1N1), and 8% B. IVE to prevent hospitalization was 24% (95%CI: -1 to 42) overall, 82% (95%CI: 49 to 93) against influenza B, and 16% (95%CI: -17 to 40) against A(H3N2). No IVE was observed in preventing influenza A(H1N1). IVE was high to prevent influenza B, moderate against A(H3N2) and null against A(H1N1). A lower proportion of influenza B cases may explain the smaller IVE in hospitalized patients than in outpatients. The null IVE against A(H1N1) was consistent with the observed antigenic drift and supports the new composition of the 2023-2024 influenza vaccine.

The European experience with testing and surveillance during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to learn the challenges encountered by public health emergency preparedness systems, both in terms of problems encountered and adaptations during and after the first wave, as well as successful responses to them.

RESULTS

This work draws on published literature, interviews with countries and institutional documents as part of a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control project that aims to identify the implications for preparedness measurement derived from COVID-19 pandemic experience in order to advance future preparedness efforts in European Union member states. The analysis focused on testing and surveillance themes and five countries were considered, namely Italy, Germany, Finland, Spain and Croatia. Our analysis shown that a country's ability to conduct testing at scale was critical, especially early in the pandemic, and the inability to scale up testing operations created critical issues for public health operations such as contact tracing. Countries were required to develop new strategies, approaches, and policies under pressure and to review and revise them as the pandemic evolved, also considering that public health systems operate at the national, regional, and local level with respect to testing, contact tracing, and surveillance, and involve both government agencies as well as private organizations. Therefore, communication among multiple public and private entities at all levels and coordination of the testing and surveillance activities was critical.

CONCLUSION

With regard to testing and surveillance, three capabilities that were essential to the COVID-19 response in the first phase, and presumably in other public health emergencies: the ability to scale-up testing, contact tracing, surveillance efforts; flexibility to develop new strategies, approaches, and policies under pressure and to review and revise them as the pandemic evolved; and the ability to coordinate and communicate in complex public health systems that operate at the national, regional, and local level with respect and involve multiple government agencies as well as private organizations.

Enhancing SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance through Regular Genomic Sequencing in Spain: The RELECOV Network

Millions of SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences have been generated to date. However, good quality data and adequate surveillance systems are required to contribute to meaningful surveillance in public health. In this context, the network of Spanish laboratories for coronavirus (RELECOV) was created with the main goal of promoting actions to speed up the detection, analyses, and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 at a national level, partially structured and financed by an ECDC-HERA-Incubator action (ECDC/GRANT/2021/024). A SARS-CoV-2 sequencing quality control assessment (QCA) was developed to evaluate the network's technical capacity. QCA full panel results showed a lower hit rate for lineage assignment compared to that obtained for variants. Genomic data comprising 48,578 viral genomes were studied and evaluated to monitor SARS-CoV-2. The developed network actions showed a 36% increase in sharing viral sequences. In addition, analysis of lineage/sublineage-defining mutations to track the virus showed characteristic mutation profiles for the Delta and Omicron variants. Further, phylogenetic analyses strongly correlated with different variant clusters, obtaining a robust reference tree. The RELECOV network has made it possible to improve and enhance the genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain. It has provided and evaluated genomic tools for viral genome monitoring and characterization that make it possible to increase knowledge efficiently and quickly, promoting the genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain.

Prognostic factors for mortality, intensive care unit and hospital admission due to SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies in Europe

BACKGROUND

As mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age-/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of underlying medical conditions as prognostic factors for adverse outcomes due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), including death, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation within three separate settings (community, hospital and ICU). Cohort studies that reported at least age and gender-adjusted data from Europe were identified through a search of peer-reviewed articles published until 11 June 2021 in Ovid Medline and Embase. Results are presented as odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals and absolute risk differences in deaths per 1000 COVID-19 patients.

FINDINGS

We included 88 cohort studies with age-/gender-adjusted data from 6 653 207 SARS-CoV-2 patients from Europe. Hospital-based mortality was associated with high and moderate certainty evidence for solid organ tumours, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, arrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, liver disease and obesity, while a higher risk, albeit with low certainty, was noted for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure. Community-based mortality was associated with a history of heart failure, stroke, diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Evidence of high/moderate certainty revealed a strong association between hospitalisation for COVID-19 and solid organ transplant recipients, sleep apnoea, diabetes, stroke and liver disease.

INTERPRETATION

The results confirmed the strong association between specific prognostic factors and mortality and hospital admission. Prioritisation of booster vaccinations and the implementation of nonpharmaceutical protective measures for these populations may contribute to a reduction in COVID-19 mortality, ICU and hospital admissions.

VectorNet: Putting Vectors on the Map

Public and animal health authorities face many challenges in surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases. Those challenges are principally due to the multitude of interactions between vertebrate hosts, pathogens, and vectors in continuously changing environments. VectorNet, a joint project of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) facilitates risk assessments of VBD threats through the collection, mapping and sharing of distribution data for ticks, mosquitoes, sand flies, and biting midges that are vectors of pathogens of importance to animal and/or human health in Europe. We describe the development and maintenance of this One Health network that celebrated its 10th anniversary in 2020 and the value of its most tangible outputs, the vector distribution maps, that are freely available online and its raw data on request. VectorNet encourages usage of these maps by health professionals and participation, sharing and usage of the raw data by the network and other experts in the science community. For the latter, a more complete technical description of the mapping procedure will be submitted elsewhere.

Cost-effectiveness of emergency preparedness measures in response to infectious respiratory disease outbreaks: a systematic review and econometric analysis

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory infectious disease outbreaks pose a threat for loss of life, economic instability and social disruption. We conducted a systematic review of published econometric analyses to assess the direct and indirect costs of infectious respiratory disease outbreaks that occurred between 2003 and 2019.

SETTING

Respiratory infectious disease outbreaks or public health preparedness measures or interventions responding to respiratory outbreaks in OECD countries (excluding South Korea and Japan) so as to assess studies relevant to the European context. The cost-effectiveness of interventions was assessed through a dominance ranking matrix approach. All cost data were adjusted to the 2017 Euro, with interventions compared with the null. We included data from 17 econometric studies.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Direct and indirect costs for disease and preparedness and/or response or cost-benefit and cost-utility were measured.

RESULTS

Overall, the economic burden of infectious respiratory disease outbreaks was found to be significant to healthcare systems and society. Indirect costs were greater than direct costs mainly due to losses of productivity. With regard to non-pharmaceutical strategies, prehospitalisation screening and the use of protective masks were identified as both an effective strategy and cost-saving. Community contact reduction was effective but had ambiguous results for cost saving. School closure was an effective measure, but not cost-saving in the long term. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis was the most cost-saving and effective pharmaceutical intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Our cost analysis results provide evidence to policymakers on the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies which may be applied to mitigate or respond to infectious respiratory disease outbreaks.

A community-driven resource for genomic epidemiology and antimicrobial resistance prediction of Neisseria gonorrhoeae at Pathogenwatch

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae is an urgent threat to public health, as strains resistant to at least one of the two last-line antibiotics used in empiric therapy of gonorrhoea, ceftriaxone and azithromycin, have spread internationally. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) data can be used to identify new AMR clones and transmission networks and inform the development of point-of-care tests for antimicrobial susceptibility, novel antimicrobials and vaccines. Community-driven tools that provide an easy access to and analysis of genomic and epidemiological data is the way forward for public health surveillance.

METHODS

Here we present a public health-focussed scheme for genomic epidemiology of N. gonorrhoeae at Pathogenwatch ( https://pathogen.watch/ngonorrhoeae ). An international advisory group of experts in epidemiology, public health, genetics and genomics of N. gonorrhoeae was convened to inform on the utility of current and future analytics in the platform. We implement backwards compatibility with MLST, NG-MAST and NG-STAR typing schemes as well as an exhaustive library of genetic AMR determinants linked to a genotypic prediction of resistance to eight antibiotics. A collection of over 12,000 N. gonorrhoeae genome sequences from public archives has been quality-checked, assembled and made public together with available metadata for contextualization.

RESULTS

AMR prediction from genome data revealed specificity values over 99% for azithromycin, ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone and sensitivity values around 99% for benzylpenicillin and tetracycline. A case study using the Pathogenwatch collection of N. gonorrhoeae public genomes showed the global expansion of an azithromycin-resistant lineage carrying a mosaic mtr over at least the last 10 years, emphasising the power of Pathogenwatch to explore and evaluate genomic epidemiology questions of public health concern.

CONCLUSIONS

The N. gonorrhoeae scheme in Pathogenwatch provides customised bioinformatic pipelines guided by expert opinion that can be adapted to public health agencies and departments with little expertise in bioinformatics and lower-resourced settings with internet connection but limited computational infrastructure. The advisory group will assess and identify ongoing public health needs in the field of gonorrhoea, particularly regarding gonococcal AMR, in order to further enhance utility with modified or new analytic methods.

High dispersal capacity of Culicoides obsoletus (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vector of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses, revealed by landscape genetic analyses

BACKGROUND

In the last two decades, recurrent epizootics of bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus have been reported in the western Palearctic region. These viruses affect domestic cattle, sheep, goats and wild ruminants and are transmitted by native hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Culicoides dispersal is known to be stratified, i.e. due to a combination of dispersal processes occurring actively at short distances and passively or semi-actively at long distances, allowing individuals to jump hundreds of kilometers.

METHODS

Here, we aim to identify the environmental factors that promote or limit gene flow of Culicoides obsoletus, an abundant and widespread vector species in Europe, using an innovative framework integrating spatial, population genetics and statistical approaches. A total of 348 individuals were sampled in 46 sites in France and were genotyped using 13 newly designed microsatellite markers.

RESULTS

We found low genetic differentiation and a weak population structure for C. obsoletus across the country. Using three complementary inter-individual genetic distances, we did not detect any significant isolation by distance, but did detect significant anisotropic isolation by distance on a north-south axis. We employed a multiple regression on distance matrices approach to investigate the correlation between genetic and environmental distances. Among all the environmental factors that were tested, only cattle density seems to have an impact on C. obsoletus gene flow.

CONCLUSIONS

The high dispersal capacity of C. obsoletus over land found in the present study calls for a re-evaluation of the impact of Culicoides on virus dispersal, and highlights the urgent need to better integrate molecular, spatial and statistical information to guide vector-borne disease control.

Sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in eight Balkan countries: historical review and region-wide entomological survey

BACKGROUND

Sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) are medically important vectors of human and veterinary disease-causing agents. Among these, the genus Leishmania (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae), and phleboviruses are of utmost importance. Despite such significance, updated information about sand fly fauna is missing for Balkan countries where both sand flies and autochtonous leishmaniases are historically present and recently re-emerging. Therefore, a review of historical data on sand fly species composition and distribution in the region was followed by a large-scale entomological survey in eight Balkan countries to provide a recent update on local sand fly fauna.

METHODS

The literature search involved the period 1910-2019. The entomological survey was conducted at 1189 sampling stations in eight countries (Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia), covering 49 settlements and 358 sampling sites between June and October in the years 2014 and 2016, accumulating 130 sampling days. We performed a total of 1189 trapping nights at these stations using two types of traps (light and CO2 attraction traps) in each location. Sampling was performed with a minimal duration of 6 (Montenegro) and a maximal of 47 days (Serbia) between 0-1000 m.a.s.l. Collected sand flies were morphologically identified.

RESULTS

In total, 8490 sand fly specimens were collected. Morphological identification showed presence of 14 species belonging to genera Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia. Historical data were critically reviewed and updated with our recent findings. Six species were identified in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2 new records), 5 in Montenegro (2 new records), 5 in Croatia (2 new records), 9 in Bulgaria (5 new records), 11 in North Macedonia (1 new record), 10 in Serbia (no new records), 9 in Kosovo (3 new records) and 4 in Slovenia (no new records).

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents results of the first integrated sand fly fauna survey of such scale for the Balkan region, providing first data on sand fly populations for four countries in the study area and presenting new species records for six countries and updated species lists for all surveyed countries. Our findings demonstrate presence of proven and suspected vectors of several Leishmania species.

Methodology for assessment of public health emergency preparedness and response synergies between institutional authorities and communities

BACKGROUND

This paper describes a participatory methodology that supports investigation of the synergistic collaboration between communities affected by infectious disease outbreak events and relevant official institutions. The core principle underlying the methodology is the recognition that synergistic relationships, characterised by mutual trust and respect, between affected communities and official institutions provide the most effective means of addressing outbreak situations.

METHODS

The methodological approach and lessons learned were derived from four qualitative case studies including (i) two tick-borne disease events (Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in Spain, 2016, and tick-borne encephalitis in the Netherlands, 2016); and (ii) two outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis (norovirus in Iceland, 2017, and verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli [VTEC] in Ireland, 2018). An after-event qualitative case study approach was taken using mixed methods. The studies were conducted in collaboration with the respective national public health authorities in the affected countries by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). The analysis focused on the specific actions undertaken by the participating countries' public health and other authorities in relation to community engagement, as well as the view from the perspective of affected communities.

RESULTS

Lessons highlight the critical importance of collaborating with ECDC National Focal Points during preparation and planning and with anthropological experts. Field work for each case study was conducted over one working week, which although limiting the number of individuals and institutions involved, still allowed for rich data collection due to the close collaboration with local authorities. The methodology enabled efficient extraction of synergies between authorities and communities. Implementing the methodology required a reflexivity among fieldworkers that ackowledges that different versions of reality can co-exist in the social domain. The method allowed for potential generalisability across studies. Issues of extra attention included insider-outsider perspectives, politically sensitivity of findings, and how to deal with ethical and language issues.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall objective of the assessment is to identify synergies between institutional decision-making bodies and community actors and networks before, during and after an outbreak response to a given public health emergency. The methodology is generic and could be applied to a range of public health emergencies, zoonotic or otherwise.

Molecular characterization of Campylobacter causing human clinical infection using whole-genome sequencing: Virulence, antimicrobial resistance and phylogeny in Ireland

OBJECTIVES

We characterized clinical isolates of Campylobacter using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) for detection of virulence genes, antimicrobial resistance markers and phylogenetic analysis in order to increase the knowledge on the molecular epidemiology of Campylobacter in Ireland, where there are significant gaps due to the widespread in the use of culture independent methods for the diagnosis of campylobacteriosis.

METHODS

WGS was applied to 122 Campylobacter human isolates collected over a 10-years period, from diarrhoeal stool samples submitted for routine enteric screening.

RESULTS

Genes associated with cytotoxin production such as cdtA, cdtB and cdtC were found in 88%, 89% and 89% isolates, respectively; adherence, colonization and invasion genes such as cadF, dnaJ, racR, iam, virB11 and ciaB were found in 99%, 99%, 98%, 99%, 1% and 80% isolates, respectively. Genetic markers associated with resistance to quinolones (C257T in gyrA), beta-lactams (blaoxa-61) and tetracycline (tet(O)) were present in 43%, 71% and 25% isolates, respectively. The cmeABC operon was present in 94% of isolates. No macrolide or aminoglycoside resistance markers were detected. Phylogenetic analysis showed that 112 isolates were assigned to 29 sequence types grouped into 17 clonal complexes. Four clusters previously unidentified were detected. These results shown the similarity of Irish data compared to what has been described globally.

CONCLUSIONS

WGS has shown a high discriminatory power for cluster detection, demonstrating that its integration in routine laboratory surveillance could improve the detection and management of outbreaks. In addition we were able to demonstrate that virulence genes in clinical Campylobacter infections in Ireland were similar to those known previously. High prevalence of quinolone resistance markers has been found, which has implications for antimicrobial stewardship.

Updates on the distribution and diversity of sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Romania

BACKGROUND

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) are haematophagous insects that transmit the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae), the main causative agent of both zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and canine leishmaniasis (CanL) in the Mediterranean basin. Eight species of sand flies have been previously recorded in Romania: Phlebotomus papatasi, Phlebotomus alexandri, Phlebotomus sergenti, Phlebotomus perfiliewi, Phlebotomus neglectus, Phlebotomus longiductus, Phlebotomus balcanicus and Sergentomyia minuta. Three of them (P. perfiliewi, P. neglectus and P. balcanicus) were incriminated as vectors of L. infantum. Recent reports of autochthonous CanL in Romania require updates on sand fly distribution and diversity in this country.

METHODS

Between 2013-2014 and 2016-2018, CDC light traps and mouth aspirators were used to collect sand flies in 132 locations from Romania, indoors and around various animal species shelters. Species identification of collected specimens was done using morphological keys, genetic tools and MALDI-TOF protein profiling.

RESULTS

Sand flies were present in seven localities (5.3%): Eibenthal, Baia Nouă, Gura Văii (south-western Romania, Mehedinţi County); Fundătura, Pâhneşti, Epureni (eastern Romania, Vaslui County); and Schitu (southern Romania, Giurgiu County). Of the total number of collected sand flies (n = 251), 209 (83.27%) were Phlebotomus neglectus, 39 (15.53%) P. perfiliewi, 1 (0.40%) P. papatasi, 1 (0.40%) P. balcanicus and 1 (0.40%) P. sergenti (sensu lato).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the presence of five sand fly species previously recorded in Romania. However, their updated distribution differs from historical data. The diversity of sand fly species in Romania and their presence in areas with Mediterranean climatic influences constitutes a threat for the reemergence of vector-borne diseases. In the context of CanL and VL reemergence in Romania, but also due to imported cases of the diseases in both humans and dogs, updates on vector distribution are imperative.

"Treatment is of primary importance, and social assistance is secondary": A qualitative study on the organisation of tuberculosis (TB) care and patients' experience of starting and staying on TB treatment in Riga, Latvia

BACKGROUND

Vulnerable individuals with tuberculosis (TB) struggle to access and stay on treatment. While patient-related and social barriers to TB treatment adherence are well documented, less is known about how the organisation and delivery of TB care influences adherence behaviour.

AIM

To examine the influence of TB service organisation and culture on patients' experience of starting and staying on treatment in Riga, Latvia.

METHODS

An intervention package to support adherence to TB treatment amongst vulnerable patients in Riga, Latvia was piloted between August 2016 and March 2017. Qualitative observations (5), interviews with staff (20) and with TB patients (10) were conducted mid-way and at the end of the intervention to understand perceptions, processes, and experiences of TB care.

RESULTS

The organisation of TB services is strongly influenced by a divide between medical and social aspects of TB care. Communication and care practices are geared towards addressing individual risk factors for non-adherence rather than the structural vulnerabilities that patients experience in accessing care. Support for vulnerable patients is limited because of standardised programmatic approaches, resource constraints and restricted job descriptions for non-medical staff.

CONCLUSION

Providing support for vulnerable patients is challenged in this setting by the strict division between medical and social aspects of TB care, and the organisational focus on patient-related rather than systems-related barriers to access and adherence. Potential systems interventions include the introduction of multi-disciplinary approaches and teams in TB care, strengthening patient literacy at the point of treatment initiation, as well as stronger linkages with social care organisations.

Effectiveness of service models and organisational structures supporting tuberculosis identification and management in hard-to-reach populations in countries of low and medium tuberculosis incidence: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine which service models and organisational structures are effective and cost-effective for delivering tuberculosis (TB) services to hard-to-reach populations.

DESIGN

Embase and MEDLINE (1990-2017) were searched in order to update and extend the 2011 systematic review commissioned by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), discussing interventions targeting service models and organisational structures for the identification and management of TB in hard-to-reach populations. The NICE and Cochrane Collaboration standards were followed.

SETTING

European Union, European Economic Area, European Union candidate countries and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Hard-to-reach populations, including migrants, homeless people, drug users, prisoners, sex workers, people living with HIV and children within vulnerable and hard-to-reach populations.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions.

RESULTS

From the 19 720 citations found, five new studies were identified, in addition to the six discussed in the NICE review. Community health workers from the same migrant community, street teams and peers improved TB screening uptake by providing health education, promoting TB screening and organising contact tracing. Mobile TB clinics, specialised TB clinics and improved cooperation between healthcare services can be effective at identifying and treating active TB cases and are likely to be cost-effective. No difference in treatment outcome was detected when directly observed therapy was delivered at a health clinic or at a convenient location in the community.

CONCLUSIONS

Although evidence is limited due to the lack of high-quality studies, interventions using peers and community health workers, mobile TB services, specialised TB clinics and improved cooperation between health services can be effective to control TB in hard-to-reach populations. Future studies should evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of interventions on TB identification and management in hard-to-reach populations and countries should be urged to publish the outcomes of their TB control systems.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42015017865.

Exploring the effect of previous inactivated influenza vaccination on seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza: Results of the European I-MOVE multicentre test-negative case-control study, 2011/2012-2016/2017

BACKGROUND

Results of previous influenza vaccination effects on current season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

To explore previous influenza vaccination effects on current season VE among population targeted for vaccination.

METHODS

We used 2011/2012 to 2016/2017 I-MOVE primary care multicentre test-negative data. For each season, we compared current season adjusted VE (aVE) between individuals vaccinated and unvaccinated in previous season. Using unvaccinated in both seasons as a reference, we then compared aVE between vaccinated in both seasons, current only, and previous only.

RESULTS

We included 941, 2645 and 959 influenza-like illness patients positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively, and 5532 controls. In 2011/2012, 2014/2015 and 2016/2017, A(H3N2) aVE point estimates among those vaccinated in previous season were -68%, -21% and -19%, respectively; among unvaccinated in previous season, these were 33%, 48% and 46%, respectively (aVE not computable for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B). Compared to current season vaccination only, VE for both seasons' vaccination was (i) similar in two of four seasons for A(H3N2) (absolute difference [ad] 6% and 8%); (ii) lower in three of four seasons for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (ad 18%, 26% and 29%), in two seasons for influenza A(H3N2) (ad 27% and 39%) and in two of three seasons for influenza B (ad 26% and 37%); (iii) higher in one season for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (ad 20%) and influenza B (ad 24%).

CONCLUSIONS

We did not identify any pattern of previous influenza vaccination effect. Prospective cohort studies documenting influenza infections, vaccinations and vaccine types are needed to understand previous influenza vaccinations' effects.

Aedes aegypti in the Black Sea: recent introduction or ancient remnant?

BACKGROUND

The yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti transmits viral diseases that have plagued humans for centuries. Its ancestral home are forests of Africa and ~400-600 years ago it invaded the New World and later Europe and Asia, causing some of the largest epidemics in human history. The species was rarely detected in countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea after the 1950s, but during the last 16 years it re-appeared in Madeira, Russia and in the eastern coast of the Black Sea. We genotyped Ae. aegypti populations from the Black Sea region to investigate whether this is a recent invasion (and if so, where it came from) or a remnant of pre-eradication populations that extended across the Mediterranean. We also use the Black Sea populations together with a world reference panel of populations to shed more light into the phylogeographical history of this species.

RESULTS

Microsatellites and ~19,000 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) support the monophyletic origin of all populations outside Africa, with the New World as the site of first colonization. Considering the phylogenetic relationships, the Black Sea populations are basal to all Asian populations sampled. Bayesian analyses combined with multivariate analyses on both types of markers suggest that the Black Sea population is a remnant of an older population. Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis indicates with equal probability, that the origin of Black Sea populations was Asia or New World and assignment tests favor the New World.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed that Ae. aegypti left Africa and arrived in New World ~500 years ago. The lineage that returned to the Old World and gave rise to present day Asia and the Black Sea populations split from the New World approximately 100-150 years ago. Globally, the Black Sea population is genetically closer to Asia, but still highly differentiated from both New World and Asian populations. This evidence, combined with bottleneck signatures and divergence time estimates, support the hypothesis of present day Black Sea populations being remnants of older populations, likely the now extinct Mediterranean populations that, consistent with the historic epidemiological record, likely represent the original return of Ae. aegypti to the Old World.

External quality assessment for molecular typing of Salmonella 2013-2015: performance of the European national public health reference laboratories

We report the results of three consecutive External Quality Assessments (EQAs) for molecular subtyping of Salmonella to assess the performance of the European national public health reference laboratories (NPHRLs). The EQA included the molecular typing methods used for European enhanced surveillance of human Salmonella infections: pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), including gel analysis by the use of the software BioNumerics, and 5-locus multiple locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) for serovar Typhimurium. The participation in the PFGE laboratory part was higher (27/35) than in the gel analysis (19/35) and MLVA (15/35), suggestive of the need for capacity building in methods requiring specialized equipment (MLVA) or software (gel analysis). The majority (25/27) of the participating NPHRLs produced inter-laboratory comparable PFGE gel(s). Two laboratories continued to produce low-quality gels and should have additional technical assistance in the future. In particular, two gel quality evaluation parameters, measuring "image acquisition and running conditions" and "bands", were identified to cause gel quality problems throughout the EQAs. Despite the high number of laboratories participating in the PFGE laboratory part, the participation in gel analysis was low, although increasing. In the MLVA part, the NPHRLs correctly assigned 96% (405/420) allelic profiles according to the nomenclature. In conclusion, the EQAs identified critical parameters for unsuccessful performance and helped to offer assistance to those laboratories that needed it most. The assessments supported the development of quality in molecular typing and promoted the harmonization of subtyping methods used for EU/EEA-wide surveillance of human Salmonella infections.

Predicting late-onset sepsis by routine neonatal screening for colonisation by gram-negative bacteria in neonates at intensive care units: a protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Hospitals conduct extensive screening procedures to assess colonisation of the body surface of neonates by gram-negative bacteria to avoid complications like late-onset sepsis. However, the benefits of these procedures are controversially discussed. Until now, no systematic review has investigated the value of routine screening for colonisation by gram-negative bacteria in neonates for late-onset sepsis prediction.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a systematic review, considering studies of any design that include infants up to an age of 12 months. We will search MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to 2016), reference lists and grey literature. Screening of titles, abstracts and full texts will be conducted by two independent reviewers. We will extract data on study characteristics and study results. Risk of bias will be assessed using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) and Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tools. Subgroup analyses are planned according to characteristics of studies, participants, index tests and outcome. For quantitative data synthesis on prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of screening to detect late-onset sepsis will be calculated. If sufficient data are available, we will calculate summary estimates using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics and bivariate models. Applying a risk factor approach, pooled summary estimates will be calculated as relative risk or OR, using fixed-effects and random-effects models. I-squared will be used to assess heterogeneity. All calculations will be performed in Stata V14.1 (College Station, Texas, USA). The results will be used to calculate positive and negative predictive value and number needed to be screened to prevent one case of sepsis. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) will be used to assess certainty in the evidence. The protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) guideline.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study will not require ethical approval since it is not carried out in humans. The systematic review will be published in an open-access peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42016036664.

No Evidence for Disease History as a Risk Factor for Narcolepsy after A(H1N1)pdm09 Vaccination

OBJECTIVES

To investigate disease history before A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination as a risk factor for narcolepsy.

METHODS

Case-control study in Sweden. Cases included persons referred for a Multiple Sleep Latency Test between 2009 and 2010, identified through diagnostic sleep centres and confirmed through independent review of medical charts. Controls, selected from the total population register, were matched to cases on age, gender, MSLT-referral date and county of residence. Disease history (prescriptions and diagnoses) and vaccination history was collected through telephone interviews and population-based healthcare registers. Conditional logistic regression was used to investigate disease history before A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination as a risk-factor for narcolepsy.

RESULTS

In total, 72 narcolepsy cases and 251 controls were included (range 3-69 years mean19-years). Risk of narcolepsy was increased in individuals with a disease history of nervous system disorders (OR range = 3.6-8.8) and mental and behavioural disorders (OR = 3.8, 95% CI 1.6-8.8) before referral. In a second analysis of vaccinated individuals only, nearly all initial associations were no longer statistically significant and effect sizes were smaller (OR range = 1.3-2.6). A significant effect for antibiotics (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8) and a marginally significant effect for nervous system disorders was observed. In a third case-only analysis, comparing cases referred before vaccination to those referred after; prescriptions for nervous system disorders (OR = 26.0 95% CI 4.0-170.2) and ADHD (OR = 35.3 95% CI 3.4-369.9) were statistically significant during the vaccination period, suggesting initial associations were due to confounding by indication.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study do not support disease history before A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination as a risk factor for narcolepsy.

The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.