Cohort Profile: The Framingham Heart Study (FHS): overview of milestones in cardiovascular epidemiology

Higher intake of dietary flavonols, specifically dietary quercetin, is associated with lower odds of frailty onset over 12 years of follow-up among adults in the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Polyphenolic antioxidants derived from plant foods may reduce oxidative stress and frailty, but the effect of the polyphenol subclass of dietary flavonoids and their subclasses on frailty is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between dietary flavonoids, their subclasses, quercetin (a specific flavonol), and frailty onset in adults.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included individuals from the Framingham Heart Study with no frailty at baseline. Intake of total flavonoids, subclasses of flavonoids (flavonols, flavan-3-ols, flavonones, flavones, anthocyanins, and polymeric flavonoids), and quercetin were estimated via semi-quantitative FFQ along with frailty (Fried phenotype), and covariates at baseline (1998-2001). Frailty was re-evaluated in 2011-2014. Logistic regression estimated OR and 95% CIs for each flavonoid variable and frailty onset.

RESULTS

Mean age was 58.4 y (SD ± 8.3, n = 1701; 55.5% women). The mean total flavonoid intake was 309 mg/d (SD ± 266). After 12.4 (SD ± 0.8) y, 224 (13.2%) individuals developed frailty. Although total flavonoid intake was not statistically associated with frailty onset (adjusted OR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99-1.01), each 10 mg/d of higher flavonol intake was linked with 20% lower odds of frailty onset (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.67-0.96). Other subclasses showed no association (P values range: 0.12-0.99), but every 10 mg/d of higher quercetin intake was associated with 35% lower odds of frailty onset (OR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.48-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Although no association was observed between total flavonoid intake and frailty onset in adults, a higher intake of flavonols was associated with lower odds of frailty onset, with a particularly strong association for quercetin. This hypothesis-generating study highlights the importance of assessing specific subclasses of flavonoids and the potential of dietary flavonols and quercetin as a strategy to prevent the development of frailty.

Design and Implementation of the All of Us Research Program COVID-19 Participant Experience (COPE) Survey

In response to the rapidly evolving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the All of Us Research Program longitudinal cohort study developed the COVID-19 Participant Experience (COPE) survey to better understand the pandemic experiences and health impacts of COVID-19 on diverse populations within the United States. Six survey versions were deployed between May 2020 and March 2021, covering mental health, loneliness, activity, substance use, and discrimination, as well as COVID-19 symptoms, testing, treatment, and vaccination. A total of 104,910 All of Us Research Program participants, of whom over 73% were from communities traditionally underrepresented in biomedical research, completed 275,201 surveys; 9,693 completed all 6 surveys. Response rates varied widely among demographic groups and were lower among participants from certain racial and ethnic minority populations, participants with low income or educational attainment, and participants with a Spanish language preference. Survey modifications improved participant response rates between the first and last surveys (13.9% to 16.1%, P < 0.001). This paper describes a data set with longitudinal COVID-19 survey data in a large, diverse population that will enable researchers to address important questions related to the pandemic, a data set that is of additional scientific value when combined with the program's other data sources.

Association of the Mediterranean Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) Diet With the Risk of Dementia

Importance

Dementia threatens the well-being of older adults, making efforts toward prevention of great importance.

Objective

To evaluate the association of the Mediterranean-Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) diet with the risk of dementia in 3 prospective studies and a meta-analysis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cohort analyses included the Whitehall II study (WII), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort (FOS), and the meta-analysis included 11 cohort studies. Participants were middle-aged and older women and men from WII in 2002 to 2004, HRS in 2013, and FOS in 1998 to 2001 without dementia at the study baseline. Data were analyzed from May 25 to September 1, 2022.

Exposures

MIND diet score was measured using food frequency questionnaires, and scores ranged from 0 to 15, with a higher score indicating higher adherence to the MIND diet.

Main Outcome and Measures

Incident all-cause dementia, with cohort-specific definitions.

Results

Included in this study were 8358 participants (mean [SD] age, 62.2 [6.0] years; 5777 male [69.1%]) from WII, 6758 participants (mean [SD] age, 66.5 [10.4] years; 3965 female [58.7%]) from HRS, and 3020 participants (mean [SD] age, 64.2 [9.1] years; 1648 female [54.6%]) from FOS. The mean (SD) baseline MIND diet score was 8.3 (1.4) in WII, 7.1 (1.9) in HRS, and 8.1 (1.6) in FOS. Over 166 516 person-years, a total of 775 participants (220 in WII, 338 in HRS, and 217 in FOS) developed incident dementia. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard model, higher MIND diet score was associated with lower risk of dementia (pooled hazard ratio [HR] for every 3-point increment, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.95; P for trend = .01; I2 = 0%). The associations were consistently observed in subgroups defined by sex, age, smoking status, and body mass index. In the meta-analysis of 11 cohort studies with 224 049 participants (5279 incident dementia cases), the highest tertile of MIND diet score was associated with lower risk of dementia compared with the lowest tertile (pooled HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.90; I2 = 35%).

Conclusions and Relevance

Results suggest that adherence to the MIND diet was associated with lower risk of incident dementia in middle-aged and older adults. Further studies are warranted to develop and refine the specific MIND diet for different populations.

Circulating Metabolites May Illustrate Relationship of Alcohol Consumption with Cardiovascular Disease

Background

Metabolite signatures of long-term alcohol consumption are lacking. To better understand the molecular basis linking alcohol drinking and cardiovascular disease (CVD), we investigated circulating metabolites associated with long-term alcohol consumption and examined whether these metabolites were associated with incident CVD.

Methods

Cumulative average alcohol consumption (g/day) was derived from the total consumption of beer, wine and liquor on average of 19 years in 2,428 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants (mean age 56 years, 52% women). We used linear mixed models to investigate the associations of alcohol consumption with 211 log-transformed plasma metabolites, adjusting for age, sex, batch, smoking, diet, physical activity, BMI, and familial relationship. Cox models were used to test the association of alcohol-related metabolite scores with fatal and nonfatal incident CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure).

Results

We identified 60 metabolites associated with cumulative average alcohol consumption (p<0.05/211≈0.00024). For example, one g/day increase of alcohol consumption was associated with higher levels of cholesteryl esters (e.g., CE 16:1, beta=0.023±0.002, p=6.3e-45) and phosphatidylcholine (e.g., PC 32:1, beta=0.021±0.002, p=3.1e-38). Survival analysis identified that 10 alcohol-associated metabolites were also associated with a differential CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and batch. Further, we built two alcohol consumption weighted metabolite scores using these 10 metabolites and showed that, with adjustment age, sex, batch, and common CVD risk factors, the two scores had comparable but opposite associations with incident CVD, hazard ratio 1.11(95% CI=[1.02, 1.21],p=0.02) vs 0.88 (95% CI=[0.78, 0.98], p=0.02).

Summary

We identified 60 long-term alcohol consumption-associated metabolites. The association analysis with incident CVD suggests a complex metabolic basis between alcohol consumption and CVD.

A Healthy Diet is Associated with a Lower Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Higher diet quality is associated with a lower risk of NAFLD.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the relationship between diet quality and hepatic fibrosis.

METHODS

We analyzed cross-sectional associations between 3 a priori diet quality scores-the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) score, the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), and a modified Mediterranean-style Diet Score (MDS)-and hepatic fat [controlled attenuation parameter (CAP)] and fibrosis [liver stiffness measurement (LSM)] measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in 2532 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants and 3295 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

RESULTS

Higher diet quality scores were associated with lower LSM in both FHS and NHANES after adjustment for demographic and lifestyle factors. Additional adjustment for CAP or BMI attenuated the observed associations. Association strength was similar across all 3 diet quality scores. Fixed-effect meta-analysis demonstrated that, under CAP-adjusted models, the LSM decreases associated with 1-SD increase of the DASH, AHEI, and MDS scores were 2% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%; P = 0.002), 2% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%; P = 0.003), and 1.7% (95% CI: 0.7%, 2.6%; P = 0.001), respectively, whereas in the meta-analysis of BMI-adjusted models, LSM reductions associated with 1-SD increase of the DASH, AHEI, and MDS scores were 2.2% (95% CI: -0.1%, 2.2%; P = 0.07), 1.5% (95% CI: 0.3%, 2.7%; P = 0.02), and 0.9 (95% CI: -0.1%, 1.9%; P = 0.07), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated associations of higher diet quality with favorable hepatic fat and fibrosis measures. Our data suggest that a healthy diet may reduce the likelihood of obesity and hepatic steatosis as well as the progression of steatosis to fibrosis.

Dairy Food Intake Is Not Associated With Frailty in Adults From the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Nutrients, including protein, calcium, and fat may be associated with risk of frailty, yet specific contributions from whole dairy foods rich in these nutrients remain understudied.

OBJECTIVE

To determine associations between dairy intake (milk, yogurt, cheese, total (milk + yogurt + cheese), low-fat and high-fat dairy, and servings per week) and frailty onset and frailty phenotype components.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study. All dairy intake exposures (servings per week) were assessed via a food frequency questionnaire.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Participants (aged 33 to 86 years) from the Framingham Offspring Study who were not frail at baseline (1998-2001) completed a food frequency questionnaire and had 1 or 2 follow-up frailty assessments (2005-2008 and 2011-2014) were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Frailty was defined as the presence of ≥3 Fried frailty phenotype components: unintentional weight-loss, exhaustion, slowness (gait speed), weakness (grip strength), and low physical activity. Individuals with zero to two components were considered nonfrail.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Repeated measures logistic regression estimated odds ratios and 95% CIs for frailty onset. Logistic (exhaustion and weight loss) and linear regression (gait speed, grip strength, and physical activity) estimated the association between baseline dairy intake and each frailty component at follow-up, adjusting for baseline values for age, sex, energy intake (residual analysis), current smoking, and multivitamin use. Models were further adjusted for health status in a secondary analysis.

RESULTS

Mean baseline age ± SD was 61 ± 9 years (range = 33 to 87 years), and 54% were women. Of 2,550 nonfrail individuals at baseline, 8.8% (2005-2008) and 13.5% (2011-2014) became frail. Higher yogurt intake was associated with decreased odds of frailty (odds ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99; P = 0.02). Each additional serving of yogurt (β ± SE) .004 ± .001; P < 0.01) and low-fat dairy (β ± SE) .001 ± .0006; P = 0.04) was associated with significantly faster follow-up gait speed. Dietary intakes of high-fat dairy were associated with increased odds of frailty (odds ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.04; P = 0.05), but the P value was of borderline significance. No associations were observed for other dairy foods. After adjusting for health status, the associations of high-fat dairy and yogurt with frailty became nonsignificant, although the magnitudes of the associations did not change. The association between yogurt and gait speed decreased in magnitude after adjusting for health status (β ± SE) .002 ± .001; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary intakes of yogurt were modestly associated with reduced frailty onset and dietary intakes of high-fat dairy had a borderline association with increased odds of frailty, but other dairy food intakes showed no association in this study of healthy adults. Some dairy food intakes were modestly associated with follow-up gait speed. However, effect sizes were small, and the clinical importance of these associations remains undetermined.

APOL1 Risk Variants Associate with the Prevalence of Stroke in African American Current and Past Smokers

Introduction

Among African Americans, tobacco smokers have 2.5 times higher risk for stroke compared to non-smokers; the tobacco-related stroke risk being higher than in other races/ethnicities. About one half of African Americans carry at least one of two genetic variants (G1 and G2; rare in other races) of apolipoprotein L1 (apoL1), a component of high-density lipoproteins. Several studies showed APOL1 G1/G2 risk variants associate with stroke. However, the role of APOL1 variants in tobacco-related stroke is unknown.

Methods

In a cross-sectional study, we examined whether APOL1 risk variants modify the relationship between smoking and stroke in 513 African American adults (median age 58 years, 52% female) recruited through the University of California, San Francisco Lipid Clinic. Using DNA, plasma, and questionnaires we determined APOL1 variants, smoking status, and history of stroke. Using unstratified and stratified multivariable logistic regression models we examined the association between smoking history (ever smokers vs. never smokers) and odds of stroke overall, and among carriers of risk variants and non-carriers, separately.

Results

Among participants, 41% were ever (current and past) smokers, 54% were carriers of the APOL1 risk variant, and 41 have had stroke. In all stroke cases, where full medical records were available, stroke types were determined to be an ischemic, and not hemorrhagic, stroke. The association of smoking history and stroke differed by APOL1 genotype status in the unstratified model (Pinteraction term=0.016). Among carriers of risk variants, ever smokers had odds ratio (OR) =2.88 for stroke compared to never smokers (P=0. 0.038). The OR for stroke comparing ever vs. never smokers showed a dose-response trend among carriers of one risk allele of 2.35 and two risk alleles of 4.96. Among non-carriers, smoking history was not associated with a stroke.

Conclusion

In conclusion, current and past smokers who carry APOL1 G1 and/or G2 risk variants may be more susceptible to stroke, in particular ischemic stroke, among African Americans.

Trends in predicted 10-year risk for cardiovascular diseases among patients with type 2 diabetes in Thailand, from 2014 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading causes of death globally, including Thailand. Approximately one-tenth of Thai adults have type 2 diabetes (T2D), a significantly increasing CVD. Our study aimed to determine the trends of predicted 10-year CVD risk among patients with T2D.

METHODS

A series of hospital-based cross-sectional studies were conducted in 2014, 2015 and 2018. We included Thai patients with T2D aged 30-74-year-old without a history of CVD. The predicted 10-year risk for CVD was calculated based on Framingham Heart Study equations both with simple office-based nonlaboratory and laboratory-based. Age- and sex-adjusted means and proportions of predicted 10-year risk for CVD were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 84,602 patients with T2D were included in the present study. The average SBP among study participants was 129.3 ± 15.7 mmHg in 2014 and rose to 132.6 ± 14.9 mmHg in 2018. Likewise, the average body mass index was 25.7 ± 4.5 kg/m² in 2014 and elevated to 26.0 ± 4.8 kg/m² in 2018. The age- and sex-adjusted mean of the predicted 10-year CVD risk (simple office-based) was 26.2% (95% CI: 26.1-26.3%) in 2014 and rose to 27.3% (95% CI: 27.2-27.4%) in 2018 (p-for trend < 0.001). While the age- and sex-adjusted mean of the predicted 10-year CVD risk (laboratory-based) ranged from 22.4-22.9% from 2014 to 2018 (p-for trend < 0.001). The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of the high predicted 10-year CVD risk (simple office-based) was 67.2% (95% CI: 66.5-68.0%) in 2014 and significantly rose to 73.1% (95% CI: 72.4-73.7%) in 2018 (p-for trend < 0.001). Nevertheless, the age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of the high predicted 10-year CVD risk (laboratory-based) ranged from 46.0-47.4% from 2014 to 2018 (p-for trend = 0.405). However, among patients with available laboratory results, a significantly positive correlation was noted between predicted 10-year CVD risk, simple office-based and laboratory-based (r = 0.8765, p-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated significant rising trends in the predicated 10-year CVD risk among Thai patients with T2D. In addition, the results empowered further improved modifiable CVD risks, especially regarding high BMI and high blood pressure.

Comparison of Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risks in Sweden- and foreign-born primary health care patients in Sweden

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease around the world varies by ethnicity and region of birth. Immigrants living in Sweden may have a higher prevalence of cardiovascular diseases than native-born Swedes, but little is known about their actual cardiovascular risk. This study aimed to examine the relationship in Sweden between 10-year cardiovascular risk and birthplace.

METHOD

This cross-sectional study was based on cardiovascular risk factor data obtained from the 4D Diabetes Project, a Programme 4D subproject in Sweden. Participants were recruited from two primary healthcare centres in Stockholm without a history of diabetes or pre-diabetes. The outcome variable was 10-year cardiovascular risk based on the calculation of a Framingham Risk Score with six risk factors: age, sex, LDL, HDL, BP, diabetes and smoking for each participant. Multiple linear regression was performed to generate β-coefficients for the outcome.

RESULTS

There was an average of 8.86% cardiovascular risk over 10 years in Sweden-born participants and a 5.45% 10-year risk in foreign-born, (P < 0.0001). Foreign-born participants were about 10 years younger (mean age 46 years vs. 56 years, P < 0.001), with a significantly higher proportion of smokers (23.9% vs. 13.7%; P = 0.001). To be born in Sweden (with parents born in Sweden) was significantly associated with a 10-year cardiovascular risk in the crude model (β- coefficient = 3.40, 95% CI 2.59-4.22; P < 0.0001) and when adjusted for education and alcohol consumption (β- coefficient = 2.70 95% CI 1.86-3.54; P < 0.0001). Regardless of the birthplace, 10-year cardiovascular risk was lower for those with higher education compared to those with less than 10 years of education.

CONCLUSION

This study found a relationship between 10-year calculated cardiovascular risk and place of birth. Sweden-born participants had a higher association with 10-year cardiovascular risk than foreign-born participants. These results contradict previous reports of higher rates of CVD in residents of Middle-Eastern countries and Middle-Eastern immigrants living in Sweden.

Family History of Modifiable Risk Factors and Association With Future Cardiovascular Disease

Background A parental history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) confers greater risk of future CVD among offspring. Whether the presence of parental modifiable risk factors contribute to or modify CVD risk in offspring is unclear. Methods and Results We studied 6278 parent-child trios in the multigenerational longitudinal Framingham Heart Study. We assessed parental history of CVD and modifiable risk factors (smoking, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and hyperlipidemia). Multivariable Cox models were used to evaluate the association of parental history and future CVD among offspring. Among 6278 individuals (mean age 45±11 years), 44% had at least 1 parent with history of CVD. Over a median follow-up of 15 years, 353 major CVD events occurred among offspring. Parental history of CVD conferred 1.7-fold increased hazard of future CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.71 [95% CI, 1.33-2.21]). Parental obesity and smoking status were associated with higher hazard of future CVD (obesity: HR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.06-1.64]; smoking: HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.07-1.68], attenuated after adjusting for offspring smoking status). By contrast, parental history of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia were not associated with future CVD in offspring (P>0.05 for all). Furthermore, parental risk factors did not modify the association of parental CVD history on future offspring CVD risk. Conclusions Parental history of obesity and smoking were associated with a higher hazard of future CVD in offspring. By contrast, other parental modifiable risk factors did not alter offspring CVD risk. In addition to parental CVD, the presence of parental obesity should prompt a focus on disease prevention.

The prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathology in old age: harmonisation of 12 measures across six community-based autopsy studies of dementia

BACKGROUND

Population-based autopsy studies provide valuable insights into the causes of dementia but are limited by sample size and restriction to specific populations. Harmonisation across studies increases statistical power and allows meaningful comparisons between studies. We aimed to harmonise neuropathology measures across studies and assess the prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies in the ageing population.

METHODS

We combined data from six community-based autopsy cohorts in the US and the UK in a coordinated cross-sectional analysis. Among all decedents aged 80 years or older, we assessed 12 neuropathologies known to be associated with dementia: arteriolosclerosis, atherosclerosis, macroinfarcts, microinfarcts, lacunes, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, Braak neurofibrillary tangle stage, Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's disease (CERAD) diffuse plaque score, CERAD neuritic plaque score, hippocampal sclerosis, limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC), and Lewy body pathology. We divided measures into three groups describing level of confidence (low, moderate, and high) in harmonisation. We described the prevalence, correlations, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies.

FINDINGS

The cohorts included 4354 decedents aged 80 years or older with autopsy data. All cohorts included more women than men, with the exception of one study that only included men, and all cohorts included decedents at older ages (range of mean age at death across cohorts 88·0-91·6 years). Measures of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change, Braak stage and CERAD scores, were in the high confidence category, whereas measures of vascular neuropathologies were in the low (arterioloscerosis, atherosclerosis, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and lacunes) or moderate (macroinfarcts and microinfarcts) categories. Neuropathology prevalence and co-occurrence was high (2443 [91%] of 2695 participants had more than one of six key neuropathologies and 1106 [41%] of 2695 had three or more). Co-occurrence was strongly but not deterministically associated with dementia status. Vascular and Alzheimer's disease features clustered separately in correlation analyses, and LATE-NC had moderate associations with Alzheimer's disease measures (eg, Braak stage ρ=0·31 [95% CI 0·20-0·42]).

INTERPRETATION

Higher variability and more inconsistency in the measurement of vascular neuropathologies compared with the measurement of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change suggests the development of new frameworks for the measurement of vascular neuropathologies might be helpful. Results highlight the complexity and multi-morbidity of the brain pathologies that underlie dementia in older adults and suggest that prevention efforts and treatments should be multifaceted.

FUNDING

Gates Ventures.

Genetic Effect on Body Mass Index and Cardiovascular Disease Across Generations

BACKGROUND

Whether genetics contribute to the rising prevalence of obesity or its cardiovascular consequences in today's obesogenic environment remains unclear. We sought to determine whether the effects of a higher aggregate genetic burden of obesity risk on body mass index (BMI) or cardiovascular disease (CVD) differed by birth year.

METHODS

We split the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) into 4 equally sized birth cohorts (birth year before 1932, 1932 to 1946, 1947 to 1959, and after 1960). We modeled a genetic predisposition to obesity using an additive genetic risk score (GRS) of 941 BMI-associated variants and tested for GRS-birth year interaction on log-BMI (outcome) when participants were around 50 years old (N=7693). We repeated the analysis using a GRS of 109 BMI-associated variants that increased CVD risk factors (type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein) in addition to BMI. We then evaluated whether the effects of the BMI GRSs on CVD risk differed by birth cohort when participants were around 60 years old (N=5493).

RESULTS

Compared with participants born before 1932 (mean age, 50.8 yrs [2.4]), those born after 1960 (mean age, 43.3 years [4.5]) had higher BMI (median, 25.4 [23.3-28.0] kg/m2 versus 26.9 [interquartile range, 23.7-30.6] kg/m2). The effect of the 941-variant BMI GRS on BMI and CVD risk was stronger in people who were born in later years (GRS-birth year interaction: P=0.0007 and P=0.04 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The significant GRS-birth year interactions indicate that common genetic variants have larger effects on middle-age BMI and CVD risk in people born more recently. These findings suggest that the increasingly obesogenic environment may amplify the impact of genetics on the risk of obesity and possibly its cardiovascular consequences.

Rising trends in the predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases among Royal Thai Army personnel from 2017 to 2021

Deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are becoming a growing threat to global health, including in Thailand. The aim of the present study was to identify the recent trends in the predicted 10-year risk of CVD among Royal Thai Army (RTA) personnel from 2017 to 2021. The predicted 10-year risk for CVD was calculated through the use of the 2008 updated version of the risk algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study data. The current study included 346,355 active-duty RTA personnel aged 30-60 years. The age- and sex-adjusted mean of the predicted 10-year risk for CVD significantly increased from 10.8% (95% CI: 10.8-10.9%) in 2017 to 11.7% (95% CI: 11.6-11.7%) in 2021 (p for trend < 0.001). The overall age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of intermediate-to-high predicted 10-year risk for CVD remarkably surged from 24.9% (95% CI: 24.4-25.4%) in 2017 to 29.5% (95% CI: 29.0-30.0%) in 2021 (p for trend < 0.001). The modifiable risk factors for CVD, including high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, and current smoking in this population, should be alleviated to mitigate the risk for CVD in the future.

Regulation of Human Endogenous Metabolites by Drug Transporters and Drug Metabolizing Enzymes: An Analysis of Targeted SNP-Metabolite Associations

Drug transporters and drug-metabolizing enzymes are primarily known for their role in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) of small molecule drugs, but they also play a key role in handling endogenous metabolites. Recent cross-tissue co-expression network analyses have revealed a "Remote Sensing and Signaling Network" of multispecific, oligo-specific, and monospecific transporters and enzymes involved in endogenous metabolism. This includes many proteins from families involved in ADME (e.g., SLC22, SLCO, ABCC, CYP, UGT). Focusing on the gut-liver-kidney axis, we identified the endogenous metabolites potentially regulated by this network of ~1000 proteins by associating SNPs in these genes with the circulating levels of thousands of small, polar, bioactive metabolites, including free fatty acids, eicosanoids, bile acids, and other signaling metabolites that act in part via G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), nuclear receptors, and kinases. We identified 77 genomic loci associated with 7236 unique metabolites. This included metabolites that were associated with multiple, distinct loci, indicating coordinated regulation between multiple genes (including drug transporters and drug-metabolizing enzymes) of specific metabolites. We analyzed existing pharmacogenomic data and noted SNPs implicated in endogenous metabolite handling (e.g., rs4149056 in SLCO1B1) also affecting drug ADME. The overall results support the existence of close relationships, via interactions with signaling metabolites, between drug transporters and drug-metabolizing enzymes that are part of the Remote Sensing and Signaling Network, and with GPCRs and nuclear receptors. These analyses highlight the potential for drug-metabolite interactions at the interfaces of the Remote Sensing and Signaling Network and the ADME protein network.

Effectiveness of Telemedicine for Reducing Cardiovascular Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally. There are six cardiovascular risk factors: diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, overweight, sedentary lifestyle and smoking. Due to the low attendance of healthy people in the health system, the use of telemedicine can influence the acquisition of a heart-healthy lifestyle.

OBJECTIVE

this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the effectiveness of telemedicine and e-health in reducing cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out using the PubMed, Scopus, Cinhal and WOS databases. Randomized controlled studies between 2017 and 2022 in which telemedicine was used to reduce any of the risk factors were included. The methodological quality was assessed using the "PEDro" scale.

RESULTS

In total, 763 studies were obtained; after the review, 28 target articles were selected and finally grouped as follows: 13 studies on diabetes, six on hypertension, seven on obesity and two on physical activity. For all of the risk factors, a small effect of the intervention was seen.

CONCLUSIONS

although the current evidence is heterogeneous regarding the statistically significant effects of telemedicine on various cardiovascular risk factors, its clinical relevance is undeniable; therefore, its use is recommended as long as the necessary infrastructure exists.

Normalization Approach by a Reference Material to Improve LC-MS-Based Metabolomic Data Comparability of Multibatch Samples

Large cohorts of samples from multiple batches are usually required for global metabolomic studies to characterize the metabolic state of human disease. As such, it is critical to eliminate systematic variation and truly reveal the biologically associated alterations. In this study, we proposed a reference material-based approach (Ref-M) for data correction by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and represented by an analysis of multibatch human serum samples. The reference material was generated by mixing serum from healthy donors and distributed to each extraction batch of subject samples. Pooled quality control samples and isotopic internal standards were then applied in each acquisition batch for data quality control. Finally, each metabolite in subject samples was normalized by its counterpart in the reference serum. We demonstrated that Ref-M significantly enhanced the numbers of efficient features and effectively eliminated the batch variation of 522 serum samples of healthy individuals, benign pulmonary nodules, and lung cancer patients. Twenty differential metabolites were identified to distinguish lung cancer from healthy controls in the training set. The discriminant model was validated in an independent data set with an area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.853. Another 40 serum samples further tested with Ref-M were achieved an AUC of 0.843 by the established model. Our results showed that the reference material-based approach presents the potential to improve the data comparability and precision for biomarker discovery in large-scale metabolomic studies.

Association of Parental Cardiovascular Health With Disability-Adjusted Life Years in the Offspring: Results From the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are used to evaluate the relative burden of diseases in populations to help set prevention or treatment priorities. The impact of parental cardiovascular health (CVH) on healthy life years lost from cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adult offspring is unknown. We compared parent-offspring CVD DALYs trends over the life course and examined the association of parental CVH with offspring CVD DALYs.

METHODS

Using data from the Framingham Heart Study, 4814 offspring-mother-father trios were matched for age at selected baseline exams. CVH score was computed from the number of CVH metrics attained at recommended levels: poor (0-2), intermediate (3-4), and ideal (5-7). CVD DALYs were defined as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with CVD. Age-sex-standardized life expectancy and disability weights were derived from the actuarial life tables and Global Burden of Disease study, respectively. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression was used to investigate the association of parental CVH with offspring CVD DALYs.

RESULTS

Over an equal 47-year follow-up, parents lost nearly twice the number of CVD DALYs compared to their offspring (23 234 versus 12 217). However, age-adjusted CVD DALYs were higher at younger ages and similar along the life course for parents and offspring. One-unit increase in parental CVH was associated with 5 healthy life months saved in offspring. Offspring of mothers with ideal versus poor CVH had 3 healthy life years saved (β=-3.0 DALYs [95% CI, -5.6 to -0.3]). No statistically significant association was found between paternal CVH categories and offspring CVD DALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher maternal and paternal CVH were associated with increased healthy life years in offspring; however, the association was strongest between mothers and offspring. Investment in CVH promotion along the life course has the potential to reduce the burden of CVD in the current and future generation of adults.

Recalibration of the Framingham risk score for predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular events: A non-concurrent rural cohort study from Tamil Nadu

OBJECTIVE

To recalibrate the Framingham Risk Score-cardiovascular diseases (FRS-CVD) using 10-year mortality data and baseline risk factor data for a rural cohort and assess the effect of recalibration on proportion categorised as high risk.

METHODS

Participants of a cardiovascular risk factor survey aged 30-64 years in 2011-12, from 9 villages of a rural block in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, were followed up for mortality till 2021, as part of an established demographic surveillance system. We calculated both lipid-based and Body Mass Index-based FRS-CVD risk scores, as well as recalibrated scores using risk factor data from the baseline survey and CVD mortality observed over 10 years.

RESULTS

Based on original lipid-based FRS-CVD scores, 8.48% (109) of 1285 males had a 10-year CVD risk ≥30%, compared to 11.60% (149) with recalibrated scores. Among 1737 females, 1.50% (26) had a 10-year CVD risk of ≥30%, using original FRS-CVD scores, and 3.22% (56) using recalibrated scores. Similarly, for BMI based FRS-CVD scores, overall, 3.63% (110/3028) had a 10-year risk of ≥30%, compared to 6.64% (201) using recalibrated scores. The median 10-year FRS-CVD original score in males was 7.57 (IQR: 3.67-15.83), and 2.53 (IQR: 1.28-5.32) in females, compared to 8.95 (IQR: 4.35-18.52) and 3.79 (IQR: 1.92-7.93) respectively, for the recalibrated FRS-CVD risk scores.

CONCLUSION

The recalibrated Framingham models showed a greater proportion of the population at risk of CVDs compared to the original FRS scores, with males having 2-3 times greater CVD risk scores compared to females.

Joint inference of physiological network and survival analysis identifies factors associated with aging rate

We describe methodology for joint reconstruction of physiological-survival networks from observational data capable of identifying key survival-associated variables, inferring a minimal physiological network structure, and bridging this network to the Gompertzian survival layer. Using synthetic network structures, we show that the method is capable of identifying aging variables in cohorts as small as 5,000 participants. Applying the methodology to the observational human cohort, we find that interleukin-6, vascular calcification, and red-blood distribution width are strong predictors of baseline fitness. More important, we find that red blood cell counts, kidney function, and phosphate level are directly linked to the Gompertzian aging rate. Our model therefore enables discovery of processes directly linked to the aging rate of our species. We further show that this epidemiological framework can be applied as a causal inference engine to simulate the effects of interventions on physiology and longevity.

The design and implementation of natural population cohort study Biobank: A multiple-center project cooperation with medical consortia in Southwest China

Objective

The West China Hospital of Sichuan University collaborated with regional medical consortia in Sichuan Province to launch a natural population cohort study (NPCS) to investigate the health status of residents and collect public health data in southwest China.

Methods

Up to 80,000 participants will be enrolled by the NPCS from 11 regional medical consortia over five years. Individuals are invited to visit one of 11 participating medical consortia to fill out questionnaires, receive a free health exam, and donate biospecimens upon enrolment. All participating medical facilities adhered to standard operating procedures for collecting and processing biospecimens to ensure uniformity (serum, lithium heparinized plasma, ethylene diamine tetraacetie acid plasma, and buffy coat). The Electronic Data Capture System, Picture Archiving and Communication System, Laboratory Information Management System, Biospecimen Quality Control System, Biobank Information Management System, and will be used to sort and classify clinical indices, imaging data, laboratory parameters, pre-analytical variables, and biospecimen information, respectively. All quality assurance and quality control procedures in the NPCS biobank adhered to the "DAIDS Guidelines for Good Clinical Laboratory Practice Standards". This project will integrate high-dimensional multi-omics data, laboratory data, clinical data, questionnaire data, and environmental risk factors.

Results

An estimated 2,240,000 aliquots of the sample will be stored by the end of the study. These samples are linked with comprehensively collected clinical indices, imaging data, and laboratory parameters. Big data analysis can be implemented to create predictive algorithms, explore pathogenesis mechanisms, uncover potential biomarkers, and provide information on public health.

Conclusions

NPCS will provide an integrative approach to research risk factors and pathogenesis of major chronic or endemic diseases in Sichuan Province and provide key scientific evidence to support the formulation of health management policies in China.

Coronary artery disease in women

Cardiovascular disease is the leading global cause of death in women but remains underdiagnosed and undertreated. Health professionals play an important role in improving the heart health of Australian women. Routine heart health checks should be offered to all women 45 years of age and older and to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women 30 years of age and older. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women must include traditional and sex-specific risk factors, including their pregnancy history and early-onset menopause. Women with pregnancy-related hypertensive and metabolic disorders have an increased long-term cardiovascular risk and require close monitoring. Women with acute coronary syndrome may not experience classical chest pain. More often, they experience cardiovascular events in the absence of obstructive coronary disease and have poorer cardiovascular outcomes. The recognition of sex-specific differences and more sex-specific trials are key to improving clinical outcomes.

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis polygenic risk scores are associated with cardiovascular phenotypes in early adulthood: a phenome-wide association study

BACKGROUND

There is growing concern about the long-term cardiovascular health of patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). In this study we assessed the association between JIA polygenic risk and cardiovascular phenotypes (cardiovascular risk factors, early atherosclerosis/arteriosclerosis markers, and cardiac structure and function measures) early in life.

METHODS

JIA polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed for 2,815 participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, using the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) weights from the most recent JIA genome wide association study. The association between JIA PRSs and cardiovascular phenotypes at age 24 years was assessed using linear and logistic regression. For outcomes with strong evidence of association, further analysis was undertaken to examine how early in life (from age seven onwards) these associations manifest.

RESULTS

The JIA PRS was associated with diastolic blood pressure (β 0.062, 95% CI 0.026 to 0.099, P = 0.001), insulin (β 0.050, 95% CI 0.011 to 0.090, P = 0.013), insulin resistance index (HOMA2_IR, β 0.054, 95% CI 0.014 to 0.095, P = 0.009), log hsCRP (β 0.053, 95% CI 0.011 to 0.095, P = 0.014), waist circumference (β 0.041, 95% CI 0.007 to 0.075, P = 0.017), fat mass index (β 0.049, 95% CI 0.016 to 0.083, P = 0.004) and body mass index (β 0.046, 95% CI 0.011 to 0.081, P = 0.010). For anthropometric measures and diastolic blood pressure, there was suggestive evidence of association with JIA PRS from age seven years. The findings were consistent across multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic liability to JIA is associated with multiple cardiovascular risk factors, supporting the hypothesis of increased cardiovascular risk in JIA. Our findings suggest that cardiovascular risk is a core feature of JIA, rather than secondary to the disease activity/treatment, and that cardiovascular risk counselling should form part of patient care.

Monitoring Risk Factors and Improving Adherence to Therapy in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (Smit-CKD Project): Pilot Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease is a major public health issue, with about 13% of the general adult population and 30% of the elderly affected. Patients in the last stage of this disease have an almost uniquely high risk of death and cardiovascular events, with reduced adherence to therapy representing an additional risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Considering the increased penetration of mobile phones, a mobile app could educate patients to autonomously monitor cardiorenal risk factors.

OBJECTIVE

With this background in mind, we developed an integrated system of a server and app with the aim of improving self-monitoring of cardiovascular and renal risk factors and adherence to therapy.

METHODS

The software infrastructure for both the Smit-CKD server and Smit-CKD app was developed using standard web-oriented development methodologies preferring open source tools when available. To make the Smit-CKD app suitable for Android and iOS, platforms that allow the development of a multiplatform app starting from a single source code were used. The integrated system was field tested with the help of 22 participants. User satisfaction and adherence to therapy were measured by questionnaires specifically designed for this study; regular use of the app was measured using the daily reports available on the platform.

RESULTS

The Smit-CKD app allows the monitoring of cardiorenal risk factors, such as blood pressure, weight, and blood glucose. Collected data are transmitted in real time to the referring general practitioner. In addition, special reminders improve adherence to the medication regimen. Via the Smit-CKD server, general practitioners can monitor the clinical status of their patients and their adherence to therapy. During the test phase, 73% (16/22) of subjects entered all the required data regularly and sent feedback on drug intake. After 6 months of use, the percentage of regular intake of medications rose from 64% (14/22) to 82% (18/22). Analysis of the evaluation questionnaires showed that both the app and server components were well accepted by the users.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that a simple mobile app, created to self-monitor modifiable cardiorenal risk factors and adherence to therapy, is well tolerated by patients affected by chronic kidney disease. Further studies are required to clarify if the use of this integrated system will have long-term effects on therapy adherence and if self-monitoring of risk factors will improve clinical outcomes in this population.

Pathophysiology, Diagnosis and Treatment of Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection in Peripartum Women

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is an infrequent cause of nonobstructive ischemic heart disease in previously healthy young women and therefore is not usually considered in differential diagnoses. The overall incidence of SCAD in angiographic series is between 0.28 and 1.1%, with a clear predominance in young, healthy women (70%) of whom approximately 30% are in the postpartum period. In the United Kingdom, between 2008 and 2012, SCAD was the cause of 27% of acute myocardial infarctions during pregnancy, with a prevalence of 1.81 per 100,000 pregnancies. Regarding the mechanism of arterial obstruction, this may be due to the appearance of an intramural hematoma or to a tear in the intima of the arteries, both spontaneously. Although multiple diagnostic methods are available, it is suggested to include an appropriate anamnesis, an electrocardiogram in the first 10 min after admission to the service or the onset of symptoms, and subsequently, a CT angiography of the coronary arteries or urgent coronary angiography if the hemodynamic status of the patient allows it. Treatment should be individualized for each case; however, the appropriate approach is generally based on two fundamental pillars: conservative medical treatment with antiplatelet agents, beta-blockers, and nitrates, and invasive treatment with percutaneous coronary intervention for stent implantation or balloon angioplasty, if necessary.

Two Novel Functional Mutations in Promoter Region of SCN3B Gene Associated with Atrial Fibrillation

The sodium voltage-gated channel beta subunit 3 (SCN3B) plays a crucial role in electrically excitable cells and conduction tissue in the heart. Some previous studies have established that genetic modification in sodium voltage-channel genes encoding for the cardiac β-subunits, such as SCN1B, SCN2B, SCN3B and SCN4B, can result in atrial fibrillation (AF). In the current study, we identified two rare variants in 5′UTR (NM_018400.4: c.-324C>A, rs976125894 and NM_018400.4: c.-303C>T, rs1284768362) of SCN3B in two unrelated lone AF patients. Our further functional studies discovered that one of them, the A allele of c.-324C>A (rs976125894), can improve transcriptional activity and may raise SCN3B expression levels. The A allele of c.-324C>A (rs976125894) has higher transcriptional activity when it interacts with GATA4, as we confirmed transcription factor GATA4 is a regulator of SCN3B. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the first to demonstrate that the gain-of-function mutation of SCN3B can produce AF and the first to link a mutation occurring in the non-coding 5′UTR region of SCN3B to lone AF. The work also offers empirical proof that GATA4 is a critical regulator of SCN3B gene regulation. Our findings may serve as an encyclopedia for AF susceptibility variants and can also provide insight into the investigation of the functional mechanisms behind AF variants discovered by genetic methods.

Is dietary choline intake related to dementia and Alzheimer's disease risks? Results from the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

The positive association of choline for cognition has been reported in both animal and human studies, yet the associations of choline with the risks of incident dementia or Alzheimer's disease (AD) in humans is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to test the hypothesis that lower or higher dietary choline intake is associated with increased or decreased, respectively, risks of incident dementia and AD.

METHODS

Data from the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort exam 5 to exam 9 were used. Participants were free of dementia and stroke, with a valid self-reported 126-item Harvard FFQ at exam 5. The intakes of total choline, its contributing compounds, and betaine were estimated based on a published nutrient database. The intakes were updated at each exam to represent the cumulative average intake across the 5 exams. The associations between dietary choline intakes and incident dementia and AD were examined in mixed-effect Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

A total of 3224 participants (53.8% female; mean ± SD age, 54.5 ± 9.7 y) were followed up for a mean ± SD of 16.1 ± 5.1 y (1991-2011). There were 247 incident dementia cases, of which 177 were AD. Dietary choline intake showed nonlinear relationships with incident dementia and AD. After adjusting for covariates, low choline intake (defined as ≤ 219 and ≤ 215 mg/d for dementia and AD, respectively) was significantly associated with incident dementia and incident AD.

CONCLUSIONS

Low choline intake was associated with increased risks of incident dementia and AD.

Cumulative Consumption of Sulfur Amino Acids and Risk of Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional studies have suggested that consumption of sulfur amino acids (SAAs), including methionine and cysteine, is associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in humans and with T2D-related biomarkers in animals. But whether higher long-term SAA intake increases the risk of T2D in humans remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the association between long-term dietary SAA intake and risk of T2D.

METHODS

We analyzed data collected from 2 different cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study, a long-term, prospective, and ongoing study. The Offspring cohort (1991-2014) included participants from fifth through ninth examinations, and the Third-Generation cohort (2002-2011) included participants from first and second examinations. After excluding participants with a clinical history of diabetes, missing dietary data, or implausible total energy intake, 3222 participants in the Offspring cohort and 3205 participants in the Third-Generation cohort were included. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated FFQ. The relations between energy-adjusted total SAA (methionine and cysteine) intake or individual SAA intake (in quintiles) and risk of incident T2D were estimated via Cox proportional hazards models after adjusting for dietary and nondietary risk factors. Associations across the 2 cohorts were determined by direct combination and meta-analysis.

RESULTS

During the 23 y of follow-up, 472 participants reported a new diagnosis of T2D in the 2 cohorts. In the meta-analysis, the HRs of T2D comparing the highest with the lowest intake of total SAAs, methionine, and cysteine were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.5), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.2, 2.3), and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.1), respectively. The association of SAA intake with T2D was attenuated after adjusting animal protein intake in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that excess intake of SAAs is associated with higher risk of T2D. Dietary patterns that are low in SAAs could help in preventing T2D.

Using Causal Diagrams for Biomedical Research

Causal diagrams are used in biomedical research to develop and portray conceptual models that accurately and concisely convey assumptions about putative causal relations. Specifically, causal diagrams can be used for both observational studies and clinical trials to provide a scientific basis for some aspects of multivariable model selection. This methodology also provides an explicit framework for classifying potential sources of bias and enabling the identification of confounder, collider, and mediator variables for statistical analyses. We illustrate the potential serious miscalculation of effect estimates resulting from incorrect selection of variables for multivariable modeling without regard to their type and causal ordering as demonstrated by causal diagrams. Our objective is to improve researchers' understanding of the critical variable selection process to enhance their communication with collaborating statisticians regarding the scientific basis for intended study designs and multivariable statistical analyses. We introduce the concept of causal diagrams and their development as directed acyclic graphs to illustrate the usefulness of this methodology. We present numeric examples of effect estimate calculations and miscalculations based on analyses of the well-known Framingham Heart Study. Clinical researchers can use causal diagrams to improve their understanding of complex causation relations to determine accurate and valid multivariable models for statistical analyses. The Framingham Heart Study dataset and software codes for our analyses are provided in Appendix E1 (available online at http://www.annemergmed.com) to allow readers the opportunity to conduct their analyses.

A population-based meta-analysis of circulating GFAP for cognition and dementia risk

OBJECTIVE

Expression of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), a marker of reactive astrocytosis, colocalizes with neuropathology in the brain. Blood levels of GFAP have been associated with cognitive decline and dementia status. However, further examinations at a population-based level are necessary to broaden generalizability to community settings.

METHODS

Circulating GFAP levels were assayed using a Simoa HD-1 analyzer in 4338 adults without prevalent dementia from four longitudinal community-based cohort studies. The associations between GFAP levels with general cognition, total brain volume, and hippocampal volume were evaluated with separate linear regression models in each cohort with adjustment for age, sex, education, race, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, body mass index, apolipoprotein E ε4 status, site, and time between GFAP blood draw and the outcome. Associations with incident all-cause and Alzheimer's disease dementia were evaluated with adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. Meta-analysis was performed on the estimates derived from each cohort using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses indicated that higher circulating GFAP associated with lower general cognition (ß = -0.09, [95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.15 to -0.03], p = 0.005), but not with total brain or hippocampal volume (p > 0.05). However, each standard deviation unit increase in log-transformed GFAP levels was significantly associated with a 2.5-fold higher risk of incident all-cause dementia (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 2.47 (95% CI: 1.52-4.01)) and Alzheimer's disease dementia (HR: 2.54 [95% CI: 1.42-4.53]) over up to 15-years of follow-up.

INTERPRETATION

Results support the potential role of circulating GFAP levels for aiding dementia risk prediction and improving clinical trial stratification in community settings.

Temporal Trends in Incidence of Premature Cardiovascular Disease Over the Past 7 Decades: The Framingham Heart Study

Background Premature onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD) imposes a significant societal burden and challenges prevention efforts. Methods and Results Trends in the incidence of premature CVD (before age 55, 60, or 65 years, separate analysis for each threshold) were evaluated in 14 464 Framingham Heart Study participants over 7 decades of observation (1950-2019). The change in the incidence of premature CVD (per decade) in men and women was assessed using overdispersed Poisson regression (accounting for cohort effects), adjusting for age at entry and age at onset of premature CVD within each decade. CVD was defined as a composite of fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke or transient ischemic attack, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. There were 2223 first CVD events (832 in women) before age 65 years during 282 481 person-years of observations (154 587 in women) between 1950 and 2019. The age-adjusted CVD incidence before age 65 years decreased from 14.8 per 1000 person-years (1950-1959) to 4.69 per 1000 person-years (2010-2019) in men and from 7.23 per 1000 person-years (1950-1959) to 1.73 per 1000 person-years (2010-2019) in women. In adjusted analyses, the incidence of premature CVD decreased per decade in men (18.4% [95% CI, 12.0%-24.0%], for onset before age 55 years; 19.5% [95% CI, 12.0%-27.0%], for onset before age 60 years; 21.3% [95% CI, 16.0%-27.0%], for onset before age 65 years) and women (15.1% [95% CI, 7.0%-22.0%], for onset before age 55 years; 14.0% [95% CI, 6.0%-22.0%], for onset before age 60 years; 18.2% [95% CI, 12.0%-24.0%], for onset before age 65 years). The decline in premature CVD was accompanied by a reduction in smoking and increased use of lipid-lowering treatments across the decades. Incidence of premature coronary heart disease decreased, whereas the contribution of stroke to premature CVD burden increased over time. Conclusions The incidence of premature CVD has decreased among White adults in the Framingham cohort over the past 70 years; the residual burden of premature stroke warrants further study. Additional studies of trends in premature CVD in more racially and geographically diverse populations are warranted to elucidate the generalizability of these findings.

Algorithmic fairness datasets: the story so far

Data-driven algorithms are studied and deployed in diverse domains to support critical decisions, directly impacting people’s well-being. As a result, a growing community of researchers has been investigating the equity of existing algorithms and proposing novel ones, advancing the understanding of risks and opportunities of automated decision-making for historically disadvantaged populations. Progress in fair machine learning and equitable algorithm design hinges on data, which can be appropriately used only if adequately documented. Unfortunately, the algorithmic fairness community, as a whole, suffers from a collective data documentation debt caused by a lack of information on specific resources (opacity) and scatteredness of available information (sparsity). In this work, we target this data documentation debt by surveying over two hundred datasets employed in algorithmic fairness research, and producing standardized and searchable documentation for each of them. Moreover we rigorously identify the three most popular fairness datasets, namely Adult, COMPAS, and German Credit, for which we compile in-depth documentation. This unifying documentation effort supports multiple contributions. Firstly, we summarize the merits and limitations of Adult, COMPAS, and German Credit, adding to and unifying recent scholarship, calling into question their suitability as general-purpose fairness benchmarks. Secondly, we document hundreds of available alternatives, annotating their domain and supported fairness tasks, along with additional properties of interest for fairness practitioners and researchers, including their format, cardinality, and the sensitive attributes they encode. We summarize this information, zooming in on the tasks, domains, and roles of these resources. Finally, we analyze these datasets from the perspective of five important data curation topics: anonymization, consent, inclusivity, labeling of sensitive attributes, and transparency. We discuss different approaches and levels of attention to these topics, making them tangible, and distill them into a set of best practices for the curation of novel resources.

Digital methylation assessments of alcohol and cigarette consumption account for common variance in accelerated epigenetic ageing

Smoking and Heavy Alcohol Consumption (HAC) are established risk factors for myriad complex disorders of ageing. Yet many prior studies of Epigenetic Ageing (EA) have shown only modest effects of smoking and drinking on accelerated ageing. One potential reason for this conundrum might be the reliance of some prior EA studies on self-reported substance use, which may be unreliable in many samples. To test whether novel, non-self-reported indices would show a stronger association of smoking and HAC to EA, we used methylation sensitive digital PCR (MSdPCR) and data from 437 African American subjects from Wave 7 of the Family and Community Health Study Offspring Cohort to examine the effects of subjective and objective measures of smoking and HAC on 7 indices of EA. Because of limited overall correlations between the various EA indices, we examined patterns of association separately for each index. Consistent with expectations, MSdPCR assessments of smoking and HAC, but not self-reported alcohol consumption, were strongly correlated with accelerated EA. MSdPCR assessments of smoking and HAC accounted for 57% of GrimAge acceleration and the shared variance in GrimAge and DunedinPOAM accelerated EA. We conclude that MSdPCR assessments of smoking and HAC are valuable tools for understanding EA, represent directly targetable conditions for the prevention of premature ageing, and substantially improve upon self-reported assessment of smoking and HAC.

The diverse life-course cohort (DLCC): protocol of a large-scale prospective study in China

The Diverse Life-Course Cohort (DLCC) is a large-scale prospective study including around 130,000 participants in mainland China. The primary aims of DLCC include contributing to knowledge on noncommunicable chronic disease determinants, particularly cardiometabolic diseases, and exploring the long-term effect of ambient air pollutants or other environmental risk factors on health among all-age populations. The cohort consists of several sub-populations that cover the whole life-course and diverse resources: from premarital to adolescents, adults from workplace and communities ranged from 18 to 93 years old. Baseline assessment (2017–2021) included face-to-face standardized questionnaire interview and measurements to assess social and biological factors of health. Blood samples were collected from each participant (except for children younger than 6) to establish the biobank. DLCC consists of two visits. Visit 1 was conducted from 2017, and 114850 individuals from one of the world-class urban agglomerations: Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei area were recruited. By the end of 2021, at least one follow-up was carried out, with an overall follow-up rate of 92.33%. In 2021, we initiated Visit 2, newly recruited 9,866 adults from Guangdong province (South China) and Hebei province (Central China), with research focuses on the comparations on ambient pollution hazards and other unique dietary or environmental risks for health. The baseline survey of Visit 2 was finished in July 2021. DLCC is still ongoing with a long-term follow-up design, and not limited by the current funding period. With reliable data and the well-established biobank which consists of over 120,000 individuals’ blood samples, DLCC will provide invaluable resources for scientific research.

Arsenic Exposure, Blood DNA Methylation, and Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Epigenetic dysregulation has been proposed as a key mechanism for arsenic-related cardiovascular disease (CVD). We evaluated differentially methylated positions (DMPs) as potential mediators on the association between arsenic and CVD.

METHODS

Blood DNA methylation was measured in 2321 participants (mean age 56.2, 58.6% women) of the Strong Heart Study, a prospective cohort of American Indians. Urinary arsenic species were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We identified DMPs that are potential mediators between arsenic and CVD. In a cross-species analysis, we compared those DMPs with differential liver DNA methylation following early-life arsenic exposure in the apoE knockout (apoE-/-) mouse model of atherosclerosis.

RESULTS

A total of 20 and 13 DMPs were potential mediators for CVD incidence and mortality, respectively, several of them annotated to genes related to diabetes. Eleven of these DMPs were similarly associated with incident CVD in 3 diverse prospective cohorts (Framingham Heart Study, Women's Health Initiative, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). In the mouse model, differentially methylated regions in 20 of those genes and DMPs in 10 genes were associated with arsenic.

CONCLUSIONS

Differential DNA methylation might be part of the biological link between arsenic and CVD. The gene functions suggest that diabetes might represent a relevant mechanism for arsenic-related cardiovascular risk in populations with a high burden of diabetes.

Association of Apolipoprotein E ɛ4 Allele with Enlarged Perivascular Spaces

OBJECTIVE

Enlarged perivascular spaces have emerged as markers of cerebral small vessel disease and are linked to perivascular drainage dysfunction. The apolipoprotein E-ɛ4 (APOE-ɛ4) allele is the strongest genetic risk factor for cerebral amyloid angiopathy and Alzheimer's neuropathology, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We studied the relationship between APOE-ɛ4 and the topography and burden of enlarged perivascular spaces to elucidate underlying mechanisms between APOE-ɛ4 and adverse clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We included 3,564 Framingham Heart Study participants with available genotypes and magnetic resonance imaging. Enlarged perivascular spaces in the basal ganglia and centrum semiovale were rated using a validated scale. We related APOE-ɛ4 allele presence to high burden of enlarged perivascular spaces in each region and a mixed score reflecting high burden in both regions using multivariable logistic regression. Exploratory analyses incorporated presence of cerebral microbleeds and assessed effect modification by hypertension.

RESULTS

Mean age was 60.7 years (SD = 14.6), 1,644 (46.1%) were men, 1,486 (41.8%) were hypertensive, and 836 (23.5%) participants were APOE-ɛ4 carriers. APOE-ɛ4 was associated with high burden of enlarged perivascular spaces in the centrum semiovale (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.16, 1.81) and mixed regions (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.11, 1.68). Associations were slightly stronger in hypertensive subjects.

INTERPRETATION

The APOE-ɛ4 allele plays a modest role in the burden of enlarged perivascular spaces in the centrum semiovale. Further studies are needed to clarify the underlying small vessel disease type in community-dwelling individuals with predominant centrum semiovale enlarged perivascular spaces, which may be hypertensive angiopathy in our sample. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:23-31.

Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults comprising 14 established US prospective cohort studies. Starting as early as 1971, investigators in the C4R cohort studies have collected data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R links this pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotyping to information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and acute and postacute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the United States. C4R ascertains SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey conducted via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations and high-quality event surveillance. Extensive prepandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these data will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including postacute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term health trajectories.

Large-scale Integrated Analysis of Genetics and Metabolomic Data Reveals Potential Links Between Lipids and Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

The etiology of colorectal cancer is not fully understood.

METHODS

Using genetic variants and metabolomics data including 217 metabolites from the Framingham Heart Study (n = 1,357), we built genetic prediction models for circulating metabolites. Models with prediction R2 > 0.01 (Nmetabolite = 58) were applied to predict levels of metabolites in two large consortia with a combined sample size of approximately 46,300 cases and 59,200 controls of European and approximately 21,700 cases and 47,400 controls of East Asian (EA) descent. Genetically predicted levels of metabolites were evaluated for their associations with colorectal cancer risk in logistic regressions within each racial group, after which the results were combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 58 metabolites tested, 24 metabolites were significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk [Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (BH-FDR) < 0.05] in the European population (ORs ranged from 0.91 to 1.06; P values ranged from 0.02 to 6.4 × 10-8). Twenty one of the 24 associations were replicated in the EA population (ORs ranged from 0.26 to 1.69, BH-FDR < 0.05). In addition, the genetically predicted levels of C16:0 cholesteryl ester was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk in the EA population only (OREA: 1.94, 95% CI, 1.60-2.36, P = 2.6 × 10-11; OREUR: 1.01, 95% CI, 0.99-1.04, P = 0.3). Nineteen of the 25 metabolites were glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols (TAG). Eighteen associations exhibited significant heterogeneity between the two racial groups (PEUR-EA-Het < 0.005), which were more strongly associated in the EA population. This integrative study suggested a potential role of lipids, especially certain glycerophospholipids and TAGs, in the etiology of colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified potential novel risk biomarkers for colorectal cancer by integrating genetics and circulating metabolomics data.

IMPACT

The identified metabolites could be developed into new tools for risk assessment of colorectal cancer in both European and EA populations.

Core Concepts in Pharmacoepidemiology: Fundamentals of the cohort and case-control study designs

In this review paper, I outline the principles of the cohort as a sampling frame and provide a basic introduction to the cohort study design and the case–control study design, two of the most important designs in the pharmacoepidemiologist's toolbox. Further, I discuss when to prefer one design over the other. The paper is intended as a primer for people new to the field of pharmacoepidemiology and contains a range of suggestions for additional reading regarding the study designs and related epidemiological topics.

Predictors of incident diabetes in two populations: framingham heart study and hispanic community health study / study of latinos

BACKGROUND

Non-genetic factors contribute to differences in diabetes risk across race/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, which raises the question of whether effects of predictors of diabetes are similar across populations. We studied diabetes incidence in the primarily non-Hispanic White Framingham Heart Study (FHS, N = 4066) and the urban, largely immigrant Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL, N = 6891) Please check if the affiliations are captured and presented correctly.

METHODS

Clinical, behavioral, and socioeconomic characteristics were collected at in-person examinations followed by seven-day accelerometry. Among individuals without diabetes, Cox proportional hazards regression models (both age- and sex-adjusted, and then multivariable-adjusted for all candidate predictors) identified predictors of incident diabetes over a decade of follow-up, defined using clinical history or laboratory assessments.

RESULTS

Four independent predictors were shared between FHS and HCHS/SOL. In each cohort, the multivariable-adjusted hazard of diabetes increased by approximately 50% for every ten-year increment of age and every five-unit increment of body mass index (BMI), and was 50-70% higher among hypertensive than among non-hypertensive individuals (all P < 0.01). Compared with full-time employment status, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for part-time employment was 0.61 (0.37,1.00) in FHS and 0.62 (0.41,0.95) in HCHS/SOL. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was an additional predictor in common observed in age- and sex-adjusted models, which did not persist after adjustment for other covariates (compared with MVPA ≤ 5 min/day, HR for MVPA level ≥ 30 min/day was 0.48 [0.31,0.74] in FHS and 0.74 [0.56,0.97] in HCHS/SOL). Additional predictors found in sex- and age-adjusted analyses among the FHS participants included male gender and lower education, but these predictors were not found to be independent of others in multivariable adjusted models, nor were they associated with diabetes risk among HCHS/SOL adults.

CONCLUSIONS

The same four independent predictors - age, body mass index, hypertension and employment status - were associated with diabetes risk across two disparate US populations. While the reason for elevated diabetes risk in full-time workers is unclear, the findings suggest that diabetes may be part of the work-related burden of disease. Our findings also support prior evidence that differences by gender and socioeconomic position in diabetes risk are not universally present across populations.

Adherence to the Mediterranean-style diet and high intake of total carotenoids reduces the odds of frailty over 11 years in older adults: Results from the Framingham Offspring Study

BACKGROUND

The benefit of a Mediterranean-style diet in reducing frailty is not well established in older Americans.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine associations of a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern and related antioxidants with frailty onset and worsening of the Fried phenotype in adults.

METHODS

This prospective study included 2384 nonfrail adults from the Framingham Offspring Study with a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern score (MSDPS) and data on antioxidant intakes (vitamin C, E, and total carotenoids) estimated from an FFQ at the index examination (1998-2001) and 1 prior examination (if available), as well as a frailty assessment at the index examination and at least 1 follow-up. Frailty onset was defined as ≥3 of 5 Fried frailty phenotype criteria at follow-up and the worsening of the Fried frailty phenotype was defined as an increased number of frailty criteria over follow-up (yes or no). Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations estimated ORs and 95% CIs, adjusting for confounders. Analyses were stratified by age (<60 and ≥60 years) for significant interactions.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD age was 60 ± 9 years (range, 33-86 years) and 55% were female. In adjusted models, a 1-unit higher MSDPS reduced the odds of frailty by 3% (OR, 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99). Each 10-mg higher total carotenoid and vitamin E intake reduced the odds of frailty by 16% (OR, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.73-0.98) and 1% (OR, 0.99; 95% CI: 0.98-1.00), respectively. No association with vitamin C (P = 0.36) was observed. The associations among participants aged <60 years of age were stronger for each 1-unit higher MSDPS (OR, 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.96) and total carotenoid intake (OR, 0.59; 95% CI: 0.41-0.82) than those observed in older individuals [ORs, 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-1.00) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.79-1.08), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet and higher total carotenoid intake are associated with frailty prevention over time, particularly in adults <60 years.

Cardiovascular disease protein biomarkers are associated with kidney function: The Framingham Heart Study

Background

Biomarkers common to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) may reflect early impairments underlying both diseases.

Methods

We evaluated associations of 71 CVD-related plasma proteins measured in 2,873 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring cohort participants with cross-sectional continuous eGFR and with longitudinal change in eGFR from baseline to follow-up (ΔeGFR). We also evaluated the associations of the 71 CVD proteins with the following dichotomous secondary outcomes: prevalent CKD stage ≥3 (cross-sectional), new-onset CKD stage ≥3 (longitudinal), and rapid decline in eGFR (longitudinal). Proteins significantly associated with eGFR and ΔeGFR were subsequently validated in 3,951 FHS Third Generation cohort participants and were tested using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to infer putatively causal relations between plasma protein biomarkers and kidney function.

Results

In cross-sectional analysis, 37 protein biomarkers were significantly associated with eGFR at FDR<0.05 in the FHS Offspring cohort and 20 of these validated in the FHS Third Generation cohort at p<0.05/37. In longitudinal analysis, 27 protein biomarkers were significantly associated with ΔeGFR at FDR<0.05 and 12 of these were validated in the FHS Third Generation cohort at p<0.05/27. Additionally, 35 protein biomarkers were significantly associated with prevalent CKD, five were significantly associated with new-onset CKD, and 17 were significantly associated with rapid decline in eGFR. MR suggested putatively causal relations of melanoma cell adhesion molecule (MCAM; -0.011±0.003 mL/min/1.73m², p = 5.11E-5) and epidermal growth factor-containing fibulin-like extracellular matrix protein 1 (EFEMP1; -0.006±0.002 mL/min/1.73m², p = 0.0001) concentration with eGFR.

Discussion/conclusions

Eight protein biomarkers were consistently associated with eGFR in cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis in both cohorts and may capture early kidney impairment; others were implicated in association and causal inference analyses. A subset of CVD protein biomarkers may contribute causally to the pathogenesis of kidney impairment and should be studied as targets for CKD treatment and early prevention.

An adverse lipoprotein phenotype-hypertriglyceridaemic hyperapolipoprotein B-and the long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study examines the risk of new-onset diabetes in patients with hypertriglyceridaemic hyperapolipoprotein B (high triglycerides, high apolipoprotein B [apoB], low LDL cholesterol to apoB ratio, and low HDL cholesterol). The aim was to establish whether this lipoprotein phenotype identified a substantial group at high risk of developing diabetes over the next 20 years.

METHODS

In this prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study, we used data from the Framingham Offspring cohort (recruited in Framingham, MA, USA). Participants were aged 40-69 years and free of diabetes and cardiovascular disease at a baseline examination done between April, 1987, and November, 1991, and were followed up until March, 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression with hierarchical adjustment for age and sex, waist circumference, and fasting blood glucose were used to model the relationship between each lipid marker and incident diabetes, as well as the relationship between hypertriglyceridaemic hyperapoB (defined as values greater than sample medians of triglycerides and apoB, and less than medians of HDL cholesterol and LDL cholesterol to apoB ratio) and incident diabetes.

FINDINGS

Of 3446 individuals aged 40-69 years who completed baseline examination, 2515 participants were eligible and included in all analyses. During median 21·1 years (IQR 11·1-23·1) of follow-up, 402 (16·0%) individuals developed diabetes. Age (p=0·032), waist circumference (p<0·0001), fasting blood glucose (p<0·0001), and natural logarithm-transformed triglycerides (p<0·0001) were associated with new-onset diabetes, as were apoB (p=0·0016), LDL cholesterol to apoB ratio (p=0·0018), and HDL cholesterol (p=0·0016) when added to this model. The age and sex-adjusted incidence of diabetes in the hypertriglyceridaemic hyperapoB group was 32·4% (95% CI 27·8-37·7) versus 5·5% (3·5-8·6) in the optimal lipid phenotype group and 15·5% (13·5-17·7) in the mixed lipid phenotype group. The fully adjusted hazard ratio, including glucose and waist circumference, for individuals with hypertriglyceridaemic hyperapoB was 3·30 (95% CI 2·06-5·30; p=0·0008) and for mixed lipid phenotype was 2·17 (1·38-3·40; p<0·0001) compared with those with the optimal lipid phenotype.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that individuals with hypertriglyceridaemic hyperapoB are at high risk of new-onset diabetes and might benefit from intensive measures to prevent diabetes. The association between this phenotype and incident diabetes is consistent with a pro-diabetic effect due to increased clearance of apoB particles from plasma, which could injure pancreatic islet cells. This mechanism might explain the increased risk of diabetes with statin therapy.

FUNDING

Doggone Foundation.

Identifying Blood Biomarkers for Dementia Using Machine Learning Methods in the Framingham Heart Study

Blood biomarkers for dementia have the potential to identify preclinical disease and improve participant selection for clinical trials. Machine learning is an efficient analytical strategy to simultaneously identify multiple candidate biomarkers for dementia. We aimed to identify important candidate blood biomarkers for dementia using three machine learning models. We included 1642 (mean 69 ± 6 yr, 53% women) dementia-free Framingham Offspring Cohort participants attending examination, 7 who had available blood biomarker data. We developed three machine learning models, support vector machine (SVM), eXtreme gradient boosting of decision trees (XGB), and artificial neural network (ANN), to identify candidate biomarkers for incident dementia. Over a mean 12 ± 5 yr follow-up, 243 (14.8%) participants developed dementia. In multivariable models including all 38 available biomarkers, the XGB model demonstrated the strongest predictive accuracy for incident dementia (AUC 0.74 ± 0.01), followed by ANN (AUC 0.72 ± 0.01), and SVM (AUC 0.69 ± 0.01). Stepwise feature elimination by random sampling identified a subset of the nine most highly informative biomarkers. Machine learning models confined to these nine biomarkers showed improved model predictive accuracy for dementia (XGB, AUC 0.76 ± 0.01; ANN, AUC 0.75 ± 0.004; SVM, AUC 0.73 ± 0.01). A parsimonious panel of nine candidate biomarkers were identified which showed moderately good predictive accuracy for incident dementia, although our results require external validation.

Temporal Trends in the Remaining Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Middle-Aged Adults Across 6 Decades: The Framingham Study

BACKGROUND

The remaining lifetime risk (RLR) is the probability of developing an outcome over the remainder of one's lifespan at any given age. The RLR for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in three 20-year periods were assessed using data from a single community-based cohort study of predominantly White participants.

METHODS

Longitudinal data from the Framingham study in 3 epochs (epoch 1, 1960-1979; epoch 2, 1980-1999; epoch 3, 2000-2018) were evaluated. The RLR of a first ASCVD event (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or stroke) from 45 years of age (adjusting for competing risk of death) in the 3 epochs were compared overall, and according to the following strata: sex, body mass index, blood pressure and cholesterol categories, diabetes, smoking, and Framingham risk score groups.

RESULTS

There were 317 849 person-years of observations during the 3 epochs (56% women; 94% White) and 4855 deaths occurred. Life expectancy rose by 10.1 years (men) to 11.9 years (women) across the 3 epochs. There were 1085 ASCVD events over the course of 91 330 person-years in epoch 1, 1330 ASCVD events over the course of 107 450 person-years in epoch 2, and 775 ASCVD events over the course of 119 069 person-years in epoch 3. The mean age at onset of first ASCVD event was greater in the third epoch by 8.1 years (men) to 10.3 years (women) compared with the first epoch. The RLR of ASCVD from 45 years of age declined from 43.7% in epoch 1 to 28.1% in epoch 3 (P<0.0001), a finding that was consistent in both sexes (RLR [epoch 1 versus epoch 3], 36.3% versus 26.5% [women]; 52.5% versus 30.1% [men]; P<0.001 for both). The lower RLR of ASCVD in the last 2 epochs was observed consistently across body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, smoking, and Framingham risk score strata (P<0.001 for all). The RLR of coronary heart disease events and stroke declined in both sexes (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past 6 decades, mean life expectancy increased and the RLR of ASCVD decreased in the community-based, predominantly White Framingham study. The residual burden of ASCVD underscores the importance of continued and effective primary prevention efforts with better screening for risk factors and their effective treatment.

Circulating Metabolome and White Matter Hyperintensities in Women and Men

BACKGROUND

White matter hyperintensities (WMH), identified on T2-weighted magnetic resonance images of the human brain as areas of enhanced brightness, are a major risk factor of stroke, dementia, and death. There are no large-scale studies testing associations between WMH and circulating metabolites.

METHODS

We studied up to 9290 individuals (50.7% female, average age 61 years) from 15 populations of 8 community-based cohorts. WMH volume was quantified from T2-weighted or fluid-attenuated inversion recovery images or as hypointensities on T1-weighted images. Circulating metabolomic measures were assessed with mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Associations between WMH and metabolomic measures were tested by fitting linear regression models in the pooled sample and in sex-stratified and statin treatment-stratified subsamples. Our basic models were adjusted for age, sex, age×sex, and technical covariates, and our fully adjusted models were also adjusted for statin treatment, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Population-specific results were meta-analyzed using the fixed-effect inverse variance-weighted method. Associations with false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted P values (PFDR)<0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis of results from the basic models, we identified 30 metabolomic measures associated with WMH (PFDR<0.05), 7 of which remained significant in the fully adjusted models. The most significant association was with higher level of hydroxyphenylpyruvate in men (PFDR.full.adj=1.40×10-7) and in both the pooled sample (PFDR.full.adj=1.66×10-4) and statin-untreated (PFDR.full.adj=1.65×10-6) subsample. In men, hydroxyphenylpyruvate explained 3% to 14% of variance in WMH. In men and the pooled sample, WMH were also associated with lower levels of lysophosphatidylcholines and hydroxysphingomyelins and a larger diameter of low-density lipoprotein particles, likely arising from higher triglyceride to total lipids and lower cholesteryl ester to total lipids ratios within these particles. In women, the only significant association was with higher level of glucuronate (PFDR=0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating metabolomic measures, including multiple lipid measures (eg, lysophosphatidylcholines, hydroxysphingomyelins, low-density lipoprotein size and composition) and nonlipid metabolites (eg, hydroxyphenylpyruvate, glucuronate), associate with WMH in a general population of middle-aged and older adults. Some metabolomic measures show marked sex specificities and explain a sizable proportion of WMH variance.

Leveraging Observational Cohorts to Study Diet and Nutrition in Older Adults: Opportunities and Obstacles

By 2060, the number of adults aged ≥65 y is expected to double, and the ≥85 y segment of the population is expected to triple in the United States. US federal nutrition guidance is based on the premise that healthy diets contribute to delaying the onset and progression of many age-related diseases and disability. Yet, little is known about the dietary intakes or nutritional needs across the older adulthood age span. This review aims to identify community-based cohorts that collected information on dietary intake of adults ≥65 y in the United States. Thirty-two cohorts met all inclusion criteria. We summarized information on the cohorts' design, demographics, and diet assessment. We also identified key gaps in the existing databases that, if filled, could enhance their utility to address certain research questions. This review serves as a valuable inventory of cohorts that can be leveraged to answer key questions about the diet and nutritional needs of the oldest old, who represent the fastest growing segment of the population in the United States.

Using psychosis biotypes and the Framingham model for parsing psychosis biology

The Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) has invested in the collection and use of multiple biomarkers in individuals with psychosis. We expect psychosis biology and its distinctive types to be reflected in the biomarkers, as they are the 'behaviors' of the brain. Like infectious diseases, we expect the etiologies of these biomarker-driven entities to be multiple and complex. Biomarkers have not yet been annotated with disease characteristics and need to be. As a model, we seek to adopt aspects of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to guide and organize these observations.

The application of arterio-venous ratio (AVR) cut-off values in clinic to stratify cardiovascular risk in patients

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular risk calculators are a useful tool for identifying at-risk individuals. There are standardised methods for assessing the retinal microcirculation which alters as a consequence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to explore if a standardised retinal vessel assessment conducted in primary optometric care reflects current cardiovascular risk, as measured using two validated CVD risk calculators (QRISK 2; Mayo Clinic).

METHODS

A total of 120 subjects were included in the analyses. Following a routine eye examination, participants had disc-centred retinal photographs and systemic blood pressure taken. Retinal vessel parameters (central retinal artery and vein equivalent and arterio-venous ratio (AVR)) were calculated using semi-automated software. Participants were then grouped into AVR quintiles as defined by the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). Cardiovascular risk was calculated with the validated QRISK and Mayo Clinic health calculators.

RESULTS

Systolic blood pressure was significantly greater in those with an AVR value falling in the lowest quintile compared to the highest quintile (150.65 mmHg vs. 132.21 mmHg [p = 0.001]). Similarly, CVD risk was significantly higher in those with the lowest AVR compared to the highest (QRISK: 14.28% vs. 9.87% [p = 0.05]; MAYO risk: 36.35% vs. 19.21% [p = 0.01]). Chi squared analyses showed a significant difference in the number of hypertensives in the lowest AVR quintile compared to those in the highest [p = 0.02].

CONCLUSION

Whilst the ARIC population is not directly comparable to the population used to develop the QRISK calculator, it has been shown that its application could help to identify at risk individuals using retinal vessel analyses.