Averting obesity and type 2 diabetes in India through sugar-sweetened beverage taxation: an economic-epidemiologic modeling study

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity

Background

Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy.

Methods

We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model.

Results

Two NZ studies gave TFEe’s of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy–implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000’s) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy.

Conclusions

If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options.

Revisiting the Global Overfat Pandemic

The previously described overfat pandemic, estimated to be 62-76% worldwide, is comprised of individuals with excess body fat sufficient to impair health. The overfat condition is common in those who are overweight and obese, and can also occur in significant numbers of normal-weight non-obese individuals. Being overfat increases the risk for a wide spectrum of common cardiovascular and metabolic (cardiometabolic) abnormalities, chronic diseases and physical impairment. In some ethnicities, up to 40% or more of those who are normal-weight and non-obese may be overfat, a figure twice that used in the original global overfat estimates. In addition to the rates of overfat outpacing overweight and obesity, non-White populations outnumber Whites 6:1, with the recently estimated overfat prevalence being low when considering ethnicities such as Asians, Chinese, Africans and Latin Americans, including these individuals living among predominantly White populations. An awareness of the extent of the overfat pandemic is important because excess body fat can precede cardiometabolic risk factors, chronic diseases, and physical disabilities, and can reduce quality of life and increase healthcare expenditure. The purpose of this Perspective is to demonstrate that the global overfat prevalence of 62-76% may be considerably underestimated.

Determinants of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption among Indian Adults: Findings from the National Family Health Survey-4

Background

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are associated with obesity, and various other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). The aim of the study was to study the patterns of consumption of SSBs and association of SSB consumption with various socioeconomic factors and fried food consumption.

Methodology

We used data of the 4^th round of National Family Health Survey. We used multiple logistic regression to estimate the extent of the relationship between consumption of aerated drinks and various predictors. Furthermore, generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) was used to derive a path diagram that showed a significant linkage between aerated drinks and observed variables.

Results

Our study showed a clear association between consumption of aerated drinks with socioeconomic variables age, sex, marital status, and wealth index. The consumption of aerated drinks was also significantly associated with watching television and eating fried foods.

Conclusion

Aerated drinks are a popular source of added sugar in the Indian diet. Limiting such factors can prove to be beneficial in reducing their consumption and further help in reducing the burden of NCDs.

Determining predictors of change in sugar sweetened beverage consumption behaviour among university students in India

Background Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is a significant risk behaviour that leads to the development of several chronic diseases. The present study aimed to predict the SSB consumption behaviour among Indian university students by utilising a multi theory model (MTM) of health behaviour change. Methods In a cross-sectional design, a validated 37-item self-report questionnaire was administered to 267 participants from a mid-size university in the National Capital Region (NCR) of India. Stepwise multiple regressions were used to determine predictors of change in initiation and sustenance of SSB consumption behaviour. For stepwise multiple regression, the a priori criteria of probability of F to enter the predictor in the model was set as less than or equal to 0.05 and for removing the predictor as greater than or equal to 0.10. Results The model was able to predict 16.7% variance in behavioural initiation through the constructs of participatory dialogue and behavioural confidence, and 30.2% variance in sustenance through emotional transformation and change in social environment. Participatory dialogue and behavioural confidence were predictors of behaviour initiation; and emotional transformation, and change in social environment were predictors of behaviour sustenance for SSB consumption behaviour change. Conclusion The study provided a pathway for design of interventions for SSB intake reduction in Indian university students. Interventions should be designed using participatory dialogue and behavioural confidence initiation, and emotional transformation and change in social environment for sustenance of change in SSB consumption in this population.

Economic effects of the double burden of malnutrition

Observations from many countries indicate that multiple forms of malnutrition might coexist in a country, a household, and an individual. In this Series, the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) encompasses undernutrition in the form of stunting, and overweight and obesity. Health effects of the DBM include those associated with both undernutrition, such as impaired childhood development and greater susceptibility to infectious diseases, and overweight, especially in terms of increased risk of added visceral fat and increased risk of non-communicable diseases. These health effects have not been translated into economic costs for individuals and economies in the form of lost wages and productivity, as well as higher medical expenses. We summarise the existing approaches to modelling the economic effects of malnutrition and point out the weaknesses of these approaches for measuring economic losses from the DBM. Where population needs suggest that nutrition interventions take into account the DBM, economic evaluation can guide the choice of so-called double-duty interventions as an alternative to separate programming for stunting and overweight. We address the evidence gap with an economic analysis of the costs and benefits of an illustrative double-duty intervention that addresses both stunting and overweight in children aged 4 years and older by providing school meals with improved quality of diet. We assess the plausibility of our method and discuss how improved data and models can generate better estimates. Double-duty interventions could save money and be more efficient than single-duty interventions.

Impact of population distribution shifts in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland

PURPOSE

We simulate population shifts in the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and address previous methodological limitations to provide valid and reliable estimates of the potential impact of public health interventions on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland.

METHODS

A comparative risk assessment was conducted, using distribution shift calculations to estimate potential impact fractions (PIFs) for percentage reductions in SSB consumption. Data from the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition was analyzed. Individual risk of developing type II diabetes was estimated using a risk prediction algorithm. PIFs were calculated using risk estimates, changes in SSB consumption, and an appropriately specified relative risk. The impact of a 20% levy on SSBs was explored. Monte-Carlo simulation with 150,000 iterations estimated uncertainty intervals (UIs). PIFs were applied to 2016 census data, estimating the absolute incident cases that may potentially be avoided through reduced SSB consumption.

RESULTS

Of the 7272 Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition participants, 53.3% consumed SSBs. The 10-year rate of type II diabetes was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.2%, 4.4%). Simulating a 100% reduction in SSB consumption, the population attributable fraction was 1.8% (95%UI: 0.1%, 3.3%). Population shifts in consumption after a 20% levy results in a PIF of 0.37% (95%UI: 0.02%, 0.7%). We estimate 135,850 incident type II diabetes cases over a 10-year period. Of these, 2446 (95% UI: 136, 4483) cases may be attributable to SSB consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Overcoming previous methodological limitations, unbiased estimates demonstrate that a population shift in SSB consumption can potentially play a role in the primary prevention of type II diabetes.

Health Warnings on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: Simulation of Impacts on Diet and Obesity Among U.S. Adults

INTRODUCTION

Overconsumption of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) is a significant contributor to obesity. Policymakers have proposed requiring health warnings on SSBs to reduce SSB consumption. Randomized trials indicate that SSB warnings reduce SSB purchases, but uncertainty remains about how warnings affect population-level dietary and health outcomes.

METHODS

This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of dietary behaviors and body weight using the 2005-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, research on SSB health warnings, and a validated model of weight change. In 2019, the model simulated a national SSB health warning policy's impact on SSB intake, total energy intake, BMI, and obesity among U.S. adults over 5 years. Sensitivity analyses varied assumptions about: (1) how warning efficacy changes over time, (2) the magnitude of warnings' impact on SSB intake, and (3) caloric compensation.

RESULTS

A national SSB health warning policy would reduce average SSB intake by 25.3 calories/day (95% uncertainty interval [UI]= -27.0, -23.6) and total energy intake by 31.2 calories/day (95% UI= -32.2, -30.1). These dietary changes would reduce average BMI by 0.64 kg/m² (95% UI= -0.67, -0.62) and obesity prevalence by 3.1 percentage points (95% UI= -3.3%, -2.8%). Obesity reductions persisted when assuming warning efficacy wanes over time and when using conservative estimates of warning impact and caloric compensation. Benefits were larger for black and Hispanic adults than for white adults, and for adults with lower SES than for those with higher SES.

CONCLUSIONS

A national SSB health warning policy could reduce adults' SSB consumption and obesity prevalence. Warnings could also narrow sociodemographic disparities in these outcomes.

Diabetes in developing countries

There has been a rapid escalation of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in developing countries, with varied prevalence according to rural vs urban habitat and degree of urbanization. Some ethnic groups (eg, South Asians, other Asians, and Africans), develop diabetes a decade earlier and at a lower body mass index than Whites, have prominent abdominal obesity, and accelerated the conversion from prediabetes to diabetes. The burden of complications, both macro- and microvascular, is substantial, but also varies according to populations. The syndemics of diabetes with HIV or tuberculosis are prevalent in many developing countries and predispose to each other. Screening for diabetes in large populations living in diverse habitats may not be cost-effective, but targeted high-risk screening may have a place. The cost of diagnostic tests and scarcity of health manpower pose substantial hurdles in the diagnosis and monitoring of patients. Efforts for prevention remain rudimentary in most developing countries. The quality of care is largely poor; hence, a substantial number of patients do not achieve treatment goals. This is further amplified by a delay in seeking treatment, "fatalistic attitudes", high cost and non-availability of drugs and insulins. To counter these numerous challenges, a renewed political commitment and mandate for health promotion and disease prevention are urgently needed. Several low-cost innovative approaches have been trialed with encouraging outcomes, including training and deployment of non-medical allied health professionals and the use of mobile phones and telemedicine to deliver simple health messages for the prevention and management of T2D.

Attitudes and perceptions among urban South Africans towards sugar-sweetened beverages and taxation

OBJECTIVE

A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was introduced in South Africa in April 2018. Our objective was to document perceptions and attitudes among urban South Africans living in Soweto on factors that contribute to their SSB intake and on South Africa's use of a tax to reduce SSB consumption.

DESIGN

We conducted six focus group discussions using a semi-structured guide.

SETTING

The study was conducted in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa, 3 months before South Africa's SSB tax was implemented.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 18 years or above living in Soweto (n 57).

RESULTS

Participants reported frequent SSB consumption and attributed this to habit, addiction, advertising and wide accessibility of SSB. Most of the participants were not aware of the proposed SSB tax; when made aware of the tax, their responses included both beliefs that it would and would not result in reduced SSB intake. However, participants indicated cynicism with regard to the government's stated motivation in introducing the tax for health rather than revenue reasons.

CONCLUSIONS

While an SSB tax is a policy tool that could be used with other strategies to reduce people's high level of SSB consumption in Soweto, our findings suggest a need to complement the SSB tax with a multipronged behaviour change strategy. This strategy could include both environmental and individual levers to reduce SSB consumption and its associated risks.

The Use of Excise Taxes to Reduce Tobacco, Alcohol, and Sugary Beverage Consumption

In countries around the world, tobacco use, excessive alcohol consumption, and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are significant contributors to the global epidemic of noncommunicable diseases. As a consequence, they contribute, as well, to excess health care costs and productivity losses. A large and growing body of research documents that taxes specific to such products, known as excise taxes, reduce consumption of these products and thereby diminish their adverse health consequences. Although such taxation has historically been motivated primarily by revenue generation, governments are increasingly using these taxes to discourage unhealthy consumption. We review the global evidence on the impact of taxes and prices on the consumption of these products and the health and social consequences. We then evaluate arguments commonly raised against these taxes, identify best practices in excise tax policy, and conclude with a summary of the current status of tobacco, alcohol, and SSB excise taxes globally.

Society of Behavioral Medicine (SBM) position statement: Enact taxes on sugar sweetened beverages to prevent chronic disease

The Society of Behavioral Medicine (SBM) encourages stakeholders to implement a sugar sweetened beverage excise tax. Sugar sweetened beverages are the largest source of added sugars in the USA and have detrimental effects on population health by increasing risks for chronic diseases. Based on existing research evidence, SBM supports an excise tax equivalent to at least 20% to meaningfully affect consumption patterns. As evidenced by research studies in Mexico and the USA, sugar sweetened beverage taxes can have positive impacts on population health and can raise significant tax revenue. To avoid potential unintended consequences that may arise from taxes to improve diet-related behaviors, it is important to monitor industry and consumer behavior in response to the tax.

Obesity in South Asia: Phenotype, Morbidities, and Mitigation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity has increased in South Asian countries that are still grappling with undernutrition. In this review, we highlight the characteristics of obesity, its relation to morbidities, and its management in South Asians. A literature search was conducted using relevant search engines and based on key words focusing on obesity in South Asians.

RECENT FINDINGS

The increasing trend in obesity prevalence is caused by imbalanced diets and physical inactivity. South Asians, in general, have higher body fat and lower skeletal muscle mass at the same or lower BMIs compared to white people ("high body fat-normal BMI-low muscle mass" phenotype). In addition, excess abdominal adiposity, typically seen in South Asians, and increased hepatic fat (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) are associated with an increased risk for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Challenges in treatment include lack of awareness regarding correct diets and non-compliance to diet and exercise regimens. Social and cultural issues limit physical activity in South Asian women. Finally, there is a lack of expert health professionals to deal with increased cases of obesity. Aggressive management of obesity is required in South Asians, with more intensive and earlier diet and exercise interventions (i.e., at lower BMI levels than internationally accepted). At a population level, there is no clear policy for tackling obesity in any South Asian country. Prevention strategies focusing on obesity in childhood and the creation of food and activity environments that encourage healthy lifestyles should be firmly applied. Obesity in South Asians should be evaluated with ethnic-specific guidelines and prevention and management strategies should be applied early and aggressively.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in the early years and implications for type-2 diabetes: a sub-Saharan Africa context

This review aims to explore trends of early consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), within the context of growing child and adolescent obesity and escalating type-2 diabetes prevalence. We explore efforts to mitigate these, drawing on examples from Africa and elsewhere. SSB, including carbonated drinks and fruit juices, play a contributory role in the development of obesity and associated non-communicable diseases (NCD). SSA is an attractive market for beverage companies owing to its rapid economic growth, growing middle class and youthful populations. SSB already contribute significantly to total sugar and energy consumption in SSA where a plethora of marketing techniques targeted at younger people are utilised to ensure brand recognition and influence purchasing and brand loyalty. Coupled with a general lack of nutrition knowledge or engagement with preventative health, this can lead to frequent consumption of sugary drinks at a young age. Public health efforts in many high income and some middle-income countries address increasing prevalence of obesity and type-2 diabetes by focusing on strategies to encourage reduction in sugar consumption via health policy and public education campaigns. However, similar efforts are not as developed or forthcoming in low-income countries. Health care systems across SSA are ill-prepared to cope with epidemic proportions of NCD, particularly when contextualised with the ongoing battle with infectious diseases. We conclude that greater efforts by governments and the nutrition community to educate the public on the health effects of increased and excessive consumption of SSB are necessary to help address this issue.

Socioeconomic transition and its influence on body mass index (BMI) pattern in Bangladesh

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Bangladesh is an underdeveloped country that has recently joined the ranks of low-middle-income countries. This study aims to investigate how socioeconomic and developmental factors have influenced women towards a shift in their body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

The trend was analysed using data on ever-married women from 6 nationwide surveys covering the years 1996 to 2014, conducted by the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). To assess the relationship between the socioeconomic factors and BMI, binary regression models were fitted for 6 surveys and forest plots were applied to display the results.

RESULTS

Factors such as age, education, residence, economic status, and contraceptive use were found to have had an increasing influence on BMI over the years that were being analysed. Age and education for women were potential factors influencing BMI. Growing urbanization and economic inequality were found to have been substantial over time, and marital status and contraceptive use were influential whilst the employment status of women held no consequence.

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid urbanization allied with growing wealth inequality and dietary alteration seems to have forced a change in the capacity of women in Bangladesh to control their weight. Additional information is still needed on such factors as the amount of time that women are inactive and sitting down, for example, as well as their daily calorie intake in order to assemble all the pieces for addressing necessary health policy changes in Bangladesh. These factors will also help to indicate a shift of focus from rural malnutrition to urban obesity.

Sugary beverages are associated with cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic patients

Purpose

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) containing high amount of added sugars have increased over the last decades. Due to increased risk of cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, we designed a study to assess the association between SSBs and metabolic syndrome, a collection of cardiovascular risk factors, in these patients.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was performed on T2DM adults (N = 157). Participants had no serious disease or insulin treatment. SSBs records were obtained from a validated food frequency questionnaire. Metabolic syndrome status was extracted from biochemical and anthropometric measurements. Subjects risk factors were compared based on their usual SSBs consumption.

Results

About half of participants consumed at least one serving of SSBs (Mean intake: 145.6 mL/d) on a weekly basis. Men and women had a similar SSBs pattern. Demographic and anthropometric characteristics were identical in both groups. Higher SSBs intake (≥ 0.5 vs <0.5 serving/ week) was positively associated with hypertension (OR: 3.48, 95% CI: 1.31, 9.26) and obesity (OR: 4.61, 95% CI: 1.31, 16.25). After adjustment for confounders, a higher risk of the metabolic syndrome was observed in those with higher SSBs intake (OR: 4.23, 95% CI: 1.42, 12.62).

Conclusion

Drinking SSBs, even in low amounts, could potentially elevate the risk of cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic patients. Reduction of sugary drinks would be an urgent recommendation.

What are the potential preventive population-health effects of a tax on processed meat? A quantitative health impact assessment for Germany

The International Agency for Research on Cancer considers processed meat to be carcinogenic. Further, processed meat is associated with diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to assess health gains of four processed meat taxation scenarios in comparison to the reference and a minimum-risk-exposure-scenario. To estimate the shift in processed meat intake following respective taxes, we calculated price elasticities for processed meat. DYNAMO-HIA was used to dynamically project policy-attributable differences in the prevalence of diseases and deaths. In projection year 10, an extra 9300 males and 4500 females would be alive under the lowest tax scenario (4% tax), compared to the reference scenario. Prevalent IHD, diabetes and colorectal cancer cases in males would be 8400, 9500 and 500 lower, respectively, and there would be 4600, 7800 and 300 less cases in females. Of the respective death and disease reduction that would be achieved under the minimum-risk-exposure-scenario, the lowest tax reaches 2.84% (colorectal cancer in males) to 6.02% (diabetes in females). Under the highest tax scenario (33.3% tax), an extra 76,700 males and 37,100 females would be alive, compared to the reference scenario. Prevalent IHD, diabetes and colorectal cancer cases would be 70,800, 77,900 and 4900 lower in males and 29,900, 48,900 and 2300 lower in females, which represents 27.84% (colorectal cancer in males) to 37.76% (diabetes in females) of the maximal preventable death and disease burden. Further research needs to examine to what extent these health benefits are outweighed by a simultaneous tax-induced decrease in fish intake.

Public health and health systems: implications for the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes in south Asia

Many non-communicable chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, are highly prevalent, costly, and largely preventable. The prevention and management of type 2 diabetes in south Asia requires a combination of lifestyle changes and long-term health-care management. However, public health and health-care systems in south Asian countries face serious challenges, including the need to provide services to many people with inadequate resources, and substantial between-population and within-population inequalities. In this Series paper, we explore the importance and particular challenges of public health and health systems in south Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) with respect to the provision of culturally appropriate lifestyle modification to prevent and manage diabetes, especially in resource-poor settings. Effective primary prevention strategies are urgently needed to counter risk factors and behaviours preconception, in utero, in infancy, and during childhood and adolescence. A concerted focus on education, training, and capacity building at the community level would ensure the more widespread use of non-physician care, including community health workers. Major investment from governments and other sources will be essential to achieve substantial improvements in the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes in the region.

Cardiovascular Diseases in India Compared With the United States

This review describes trends in the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and risk factors in India compared with the United States; provides potential explanations for these differences; and describes strategies to improve cardiovascular health behaviors, systems, and policies in India. The prevalence of CVD in India has risen over the past 2 decades due to population growth, aging, and a stable age-adjusted CVD mortality rate. Over the same time period, the United States has experienced an overall decline in age-adjusted CVD mortality, although the trend has begun to plateau. These improvements in CVD mortality in the United States are largely due to favorable population-level risk factor trends, specifically with regard to tobacco use, cholesterol, and blood pressure, although improvements in secondary prevention and acute care have also contributed. To realize similar gains in reducing premature death and disability from CVD, India needs to implement population-level policies while strengthening and integrating its local, regional, and national health systems. Achieving universal health coverage that includes financial risk protection should remain a goal to help all Indians realize their right to health.

Addressing Health Equity Through Action on the Social Determinants of Health: A Global Review of Policy Outcome Evaluation Methods

Background: Epidemiological evidence on the social determinants of health inequity is well-advanced, but considerably less attention has been given to evaluating the impact of public policies addressing those social determinants. Methodological challenges to produce evidence on policy outcomes present a significant barrier to mobilising policy actions for health equities. This review aims to examine methodological approaches to policy evaluation of health equity outcomes and identify promising approaches for future research.

Methods: We conducted a systematic narrative review of literature critically evaluating policy impact on health equity, synthesizing information on the methodological approaches used. We searched and screened records from five electronic databases, using pre-defined protocols resulting in a total of 50 studies included for review. We coded the studies according to (1) type of policy analysed; (2) research design; (3) analytical techniques; (4) health outcomes; and (5) equity dimensions evaluated.

Results: We found a growing number of a wide range of policies being evaluated for health equity outcomes using a variety of research designs. The majority of studies employed an observational research design, most of which were cross-sectional, however, other approaches included experimental designs, simulation modelling, and meta-analysis. Regression techniques dominated the analytical approaches, although a number of novel techniques were used which may offer advantages over traditional regression analysis for the study of distributional impacts of policy. Few studies made intra-national or cross-national comparisons or collected primary data. Despite longstanding challenges of attribution in policy outcome evaluation, the majority of the studies attributed change in physical or mental health outcomes to the policy being evaluated.

Conclusion: Our review provides an overview of methodological approaches to health equity policy outcome evaluation, demonstrating what is most commonplace and opportunities from novel approaches. We found the number of studies evaluating the impacts of public policies on health equity are on the rise, but this area of policy evaluation still requires more attention given growing inequities.

Economic Studies on Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in India: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

The burden from non-communicable diseases and injuries (NCDI) in India is increasing rapidly. With low public sector investment in the health sector generally, and a high financial burden on households for treatment, it is important that economic evidence is used to set priorities in the context of NCDI.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to understand the extent to which economic analysis has been used in India to (1) analyze the impact of NCDI and (2) evaluate prevention and treatment interventions. Specifically, this analysis focused on the type of economic analysis used, disease categories, funding patterns, authorship, and author characteristics.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review based on economic keywords to identify studies on NCDI in India published in English between January 2006 and November 2016. In all, 96 studies were included in the review. The analysis used descriptive statistics, including frequencies and percentages.

RESULTS

A majority of the studies were economic impact studies, followed by economic evaluation studies, especially cost-effectiveness analysis. In the costing/partial economic evaluation category, most were cost-description and cost-analysis studies. Under the economic impact/economic burden category, most studies investigated out-of-pocket spending. The studies were mostly on cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and neoplasms. Slightly over half of the studies were funded, with funding coming mainly from outside of India. Half of the studies were led by domestic authors. In most of the studies, the lead author was a clinician or a public health professional; however, most of the economist-led studies were by authors from outside India.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate the lack of engagement of economists generally and health economists in particular in research on NCDI in India. Demand from health policy makers for evidence-based decision making appears to be lacking, which in turn solidifies the divergence between economics and health policy, and highlights the need to prioritize scarce resources based on evidence regarding what works. Capacity building in health economics needs focus, and the government's support in this is recommended.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study

BACKGROUND

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Validation of Risk Equations for Complications of Type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) Using Individual Participant Data From Diverse Longitudinal Cohorts in the U.S

OBJECTIVE

We sought to validate Risk Equations for Complications of Type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) among diverse populations.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We compared risk predictions from RECODe equations and from two alternative risk models (UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 [UKPDS OM2] and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations) to observed outcomes in two studies: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA, n = 1,555 adults with type 2 diabetes, median follow-up 9.1 years) and the Jackson Heart Study (JHS, n = 1,746 adults with type 2 diabetes, median follow-up 8.0 years). Outcomes included nephropathy by multiple measures (microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, renal failure, end-stage renal disease, and reduction in glomerular filtration rate), moderate to severe diabetic retinopathy by Airlie House classification, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal or nonfatal stroke, congestive heart failure, and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

RECODe equations for microvascular and cardiovascular outcomes had C-statistics for discrimination ranging from 0.71 to 0.85 in MESA and 0.64 to 0.91 in JHS for alternative outcomes. Calibration slopes in MESA ranged from 0.62 for a composite nephropathy outcome, 0.83-1.04 for individual nephropathy outcomes, 1.07 for retinopathy, 1.00-1.05 for cardiovascular outcomes, and 1.03 for all-cause mortality. Slopes in JHS ranged from 0.47 for retinopathy, 0.97-1.16 for nephropathy, 0.72-1.05 for cardiovascular outcomes, and 1.01 for all-cause mortality. The alternative models had C-statistics 0.50-0.72 and calibration slopes 0.07-0.60.

CONCLUSIONS

RECODe equations improved risk estimation for diverse patients with type 2 diabetes, as compared with two commonly used alternatives.

Association between excess weight and beverage portion size consumed in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To describe the beverage portion size consumed and to evaluate their association with excess weight in Brazil. METHODS We used data from the National Dietary Survey, which included individuals with two days of food record aged over 20 years (n = 24,527 individuals). The beverages were categorized into six groups: soft drink, 100% fruit juice, fruit drink, alcoholic beverage, milk, and coffee or tea. We estimated the average portion consumed for each group and we evaluated, using linear regression, the association between portion size per group and the variables of age, sex, income, and nutritional status. We tested the association between portion size and excess weight using Poisson regression, adjusted for age, sex, income, and total energy intake. RESULTS The most frequently consumed beverages in Brazil were coffee and tea, followed by 100% fruit juices, soft drinks, and milk. Alcoholic beverages presented the highest average in the portion size consumed, followed by soft drinks, 100% fruit juice, fruit drink, and milk. Portion size showed positive association with excess weight only in the soft drink (PR = 1.19, 95%CI 1.10-1.27) and alcoholic beverage groups (PR = 1.20, 95%CI, 1.11-1.29), regardless of age, sex, income, and total energy intake. CONCLUSIONS Alcoholic beverages and soft drinks presented the highest averages in portion size and positive association with excess weight. Public health interventions should address the issue of portion sizes offered to consumers by discouraging the consumption of large portions, especially sweetened and low nutritional beverages.

The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

BACKGROUND

Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US.

METHODS

Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES).

RESULTS

Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

Accelerated ageing and renal dysfunction links lower socioeconomic status and dietary phosphate intake

BACKGROUND

We have sought to explore the impact of dietary Pi intake on human age related health in the pSoBid cohort (n=666) to explain the disparity between health and deprivation status in this cohort. As hyperphosphataemia is a driver of accelerated ageing in rodent models of progeria we tested whether variation in Pi levels in man associate with measures of biological ageing and health.

RESULTS

We observed significant relationships between serum Pi levels and markers of biological age (telomere length (p=0.040) and DNA methylation content (p=0.028), gender and chronological age (p=0.032). When analyses were adjusted for socio-economic status and nutritional factors, associations were observed between accelerated biological ageing (telomere length, genomic methylation content) and dietary derived Pi levels among the most deprived males, directly related to the frequency of red meat consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Accelerated ageing is associated with high serum Pi levels and frequency of red meat consumption. Our data provide evidence for a mechanistic link between high intake of Pi and age-related morbidities tied to socio-economic status.

Exploring perceptions of the Mexican sugar-sweetened beverage tax among adolescents in north-west Mexico: a qualitative study

Objective

To explore awareness and perceptions of the sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax implemented in Mexico in 2014 among a sample of Mexican adolescents, and to investigate how the tax has affected their purchases and intake of SSB.

Design

Qualitative.

Setting

Semi-structured interviews were conducted in April–May 2016. The data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Subjects

Adolescents residing in north-west Mexico (n29, 55·2 % females), aged 15–19 years.

Results

Four main themes emerged: awareness of taxation; perceptions of how the tax has affected SSB intake; reasons why the tax was not perceived to have affected SSB intake; and preferences for substitution of the taxed SSB. Participants were mostly unaware of the tax and perceived that it would not cause reductions in their intake of SSB; they felt that the price increase was low and insufficient to affect intake. Taste preferences and ‘addiction’ to SSB were highlighted as the main reasons why participants perceived taxation would not affect intake. If SSB prices were to increase further via a higher tax, participants would consider substituting SSB with other beverages, namely home-made drinks (e.g. 100 % fruit juices), non-caloric, instant-flavoured drinks and water.

Conclusions

These findings provide important insights into the views of this sample of Mexican adolescents regarding the taxation of SSB, by pointing out several possible limitations of the tax policy in Mexico. These results could inform the design of future interventions directed at Mexican youth that would complement and strengthen the current SSB taxation.

Development and validation of Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) using individual participant data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND

In view of substantial mis-estimation of risks of diabetes complications using existing equations, we sought to develop updated Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe).

METHODS

To develop and validate these risk equations, we used data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes study (ACCORD, n=9635; 2001-09) and validated the equations for microvascular events using data from the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS, n=1018; 1996-2001), and for cardiovascular events using data from the Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD, n=4760; 2001-12). Microvascular outcomes were nephropathy, retinopathy, and neuropathy. Cardiovascular outcomes were myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality. We also included all-cause mortality as an outcome. We used a cross-validating machine learning method to select predictor variables from demographic characteristics, clinical variables, comorbidities, medications, and biomarkers into Cox proportional hazards models for each outcome. The new equations were compared to older risk equations by assessing model discrimination, calibration, and the net reclassification index.

FINDINGS

All equations had moderate internal and external discrimination (C-statistics 0·55-0·84 internally, 0·57-0·79 externally) and high internal and external calibration (slopes 0·71-1·31 between observed and estimated risk). Our equations had better discrimination and calibration than the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (for microvascular and cardiovascular outcomes, C-statistics 0·54-0·62, slopes 0·06-1·12) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (for fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke, C-statistics 0·61-0·66, slopes 0·30-0·39).

INTERPRETATION

RECODe might improve estimation of risk of complications for patients with type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

National Institute for Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disease, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, National Institutes of Health, and US Department of Veterans Affairs.

Metabolic effects of aspartame in adulthood: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Data about harms or benefits associated with the consumption of aspartame, a nonnutritive sweetener worldwide consumed, are still controversial. This systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials aimed to assess the effect of aspartame consumption on metabolic parameters related to diabetes and obesity. The search was performed on Cochrane, LILACS, PubMed, SCOPUS, Web of Science databases, and on a gray literature using Open Grey, Google Scholar, and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global. Searches across all databases were conducted from the earliest available date up to April 13, 2016, without date and language restrictions. Pooled mean differences were calculated using a random or fixed-effects model for heterogeneous and homogenous studies, respectively. Twenty-nine articles were included in qualitative synthesis and twelve, presenting numeric results, were used in meta-analysis. Fasting blood glucose (mmol/L), insulin levels (μU/mL), total cholesterol (mmol/L), triglycerides concentrations (mmol/L), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L), body weight (kg), and energy intake (MJ) were considered as the main outcomes in subjects that consumed aspartame, and results were presented as mean difference; % confidence interval, range. Aspartame consumption was not associated with alterations on blood glucose levels compared to control (-0.03 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.21 to 0.14) or to sucrose (0.31 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.67) and on insulin levels compared to control (0.13 μU/mL; 95% CI, -0.69 to 0.95) or to sucrose (2.54 μU/mL; 95% CI, -6.29 to 11.37). Total cholesterol was not affected by aspartame consumption compared to control (-0.02 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.31 to 0.27) or to sucrose (-0.24 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.89 to 0.42). Triglycerides concentrations were not affected by aspartame consumption compared to control (0.00 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.04 to 0.05) or to sucrose (0.00 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.09). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol serum levels were higher on aspartame compared to control (-0.03 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.06 to -0.01) and lower on aspartame compared to sucrose (0.05 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.09). Body weight did not change after aspartame consumption compared to control (5.00 kg; 95% CI, -1.56 to 11.56) or to sucrose (3.78 kg; 95% CI, -2.18 to 9.74). Energy intake was not altered by aspartame consumption compared to control (-0.49 MJ; 95% CI, -1.21 to 0.22) or to sucrose (-0.17 MJ; 95% CI, -2.03 to 1.69). Data concerning effects of aspartame on main metabolic variables associated to diabetes and obesity do not support a beneficial related to its consumption.

Policy lessons from health taxes: a systematic review of empirical studies

BACKGROUND

Taxes on alcohol and tobacco have long been an important means of raising revenues for public spending in many countries but there is increasing interest in using taxes on these, and other unhealthy products, to achieve public health goals. We present a systematic review of the research on health taxes, and aim to generate insights into how such taxes can: (i) reduce consumption of targeted products and related harms; (ii) generate revenues for health objectives and distribute the tax burden across income groups in an efficient and equitable manner; and (iii) be made politically sustainable.

METHODS

Six scientific and four grey-literature databases were searched for empirical studies of 'health taxes' - defined as those intended to increase the costs of manufacturing, distributing, retailing and/or consuming health-damaging products. Since reviews already exist of the evidence relating to traditional alcohol and tobacco excise taxes, we focus on other taxes such as taxes on retailers and manufacturers of unhealthy products, and consumer taxes targeting unhealthy foods, such as sugar-sweetened beverages.

RESULTS

Ninety-one peer-reviewed and 11 grey-literature studies met our inclusion criteria. The review highlights a recent, rapid rise in research in this area, most of which focuses on high-income countries and on taxes on food products or nutrients. Findings demonstrate that high tax rates on sugar-sweetened beverages are likely to have a positive impact on health behaviours and outcomes, and, while taxes on products reduce demand, they add to fiscal revenues. Common concerns about health taxes are also discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

If the primary policy goal of a health tax is to reduce consumption of unhealthy products, then evidence supports the implementation of taxes that increase the price of products by 20% or more. However, where taxes are effective in changing health behaviours, the predictability of the revenue stream is reduced. Hence, policy actors need to be clear about the primary goal of any health tax and frame the tax accordingly - not doing so leaves taxes vulnerable to hostile lobbying. Conversely, earmarking health taxes for health spending tends to increase public support so long as policymakers follow through on specified spending commitments.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42016048603.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

STUDY QUESTION

What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico?

METHODS

Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario.

STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS

Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Cardiovascular Diseases in India: Current Epidemiology and Future Directions

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have now become the leading cause of mortality in India. A quarter of all mortality is attributable to CVD. Ischemic heart disease and stroke are the predominant causes and are responsible for >80% of CVD deaths. The Global Burden of Disease study estimate of age-standardized CVD death rate of 272 per 100 000 population in India is higher than the global average of 235 per 100 000 population. Some aspects of the CVD epidemic in India are particular causes of concern, including its accelerated buildup, the early age of disease onset in the population, and the high case fatality rate. In India, the epidemiological transition from predominantly infectious disease conditions to noncommunicable diseases has occurred over a rather brief period of time. Premature mortality in terms of years of life lost because of CVD in India increased by 59%, from 23.2 million (1990) to 37 million (2010). Despite wide heterogeneity in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors across different regions, CVD has emerged as the leading cause of death in all parts of India, including poorer states and rural areas. The progression of the epidemic is characterized by the reversal of socioeconomic gradients; tobacco use and low fruit and vegetable intake have become more prevalent among those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. In addition, individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds frequently do not receive optimal therapy, leading to poorer outcomes. Countering the epidemic requires the development of strategies such as the formulation and effective implementation of evidence-based policy, reinforcement of health systems, and emphasis on prevention, early detection, and treatment with the use of both conventional and innovative techniques. Several ongoing community-based studies are testing these strategies.

Role of lifestyle factors in the epidemic of diabetes: lessons learnt from India

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing steadily globally with the largest increases occurring in developing countries like India. This is attributed to the changes in the lifestyle factors, including physical inactivity and unhealthy diet, both of which are modifiable. Existing evidence suggests that increasing physical activity reduces the risk of T2D. Improving the built environment can make it more conducive to people to increase physical activity. There is also a rapid nutrition transition with consumption of diets with higher intake of refined grains, higher fat, increased consumption of sugar and sweetened beverages, and lower intake of fruits and vegetables. A multisectoral approach promoting healthier diets and increasing physical activity can help in slowing down the diabetic epidemic. However, this requires political will to make necessary policy changes, as well as empowerment of the community, if the preventive measures are to be sustainable and scalable.

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: impact on overweight and obesity in Germany

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany.

METHODS

The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups.

RESULTS

Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%).

CONCLUSIONS

An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.

Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction

Objectives

To examine the prospective associations between consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice with type 2 diabetes before and after adjustment for adiposity, and to estimate the population attributable fraction for type 2 diabetes from consumption of sugar sweetened beverages in the United States and United Kingdom.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data sources and eligibility

PubMed, Embase, Ovid, and Web of Knowledge for prospective studies of adults without diabetes, published until February 2014. The population attributable fraction was estimated in national surveys in the USA, 2009–10 (n=4729 representing 189.1 million adults without diabetes) and the UK, 2008–12 (n=1932 representing 44.7 million).

Synthesis methods

Random effects meta-analysis and survey analysis for population attributable fraction associated with consumption of sugar sweetened beverages.

Results

Prespecified information was extracted from 17 cohorts (38 253 cases/10 126 754 person years). Higher consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, by 18% per one serving/day (95% confidence interval 9% to 28%, I² for heterogeneity=89%) and 13% (6% to 21%, I²=79%) before and after adjustment for adiposity; for artificially sweetened beverages, 25% (18% to 33%, I²=70%) and 8% (2% to 15%, I²=64%); and for fruit juice, 5% (−1% to 11%, I²=58%) and 7% (1% to 14%, I²=51%). Potential sources of heterogeneity or bias were not evident for sugar sweetened beverages. For artificially sweetened beverages, publication bias and residual confounding were indicated. For fruit juice the finding was non-significant in studies ascertaining type 2 diabetes objectively (P for heterogeneity=0.008). Under specified assumptions for population attributable fraction, of 20.9 million events of type 2 diabetes predicted to occur over 10 years in the USA (absolute event rate 11.0%), 1.8 million would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 8.7%, 95% confidence interval 3.9% to 12.9%); and of 2.6 million events in the UK (absolute event rate 5.8%), 79 000 would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 3.6%, 1.7% to 5.6%).

Conclusions

Habitual consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, independently of adiposity. Although artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice also showd positive associations with incidence of type 2 diabetes, the findings were likely to involve bias. None the less, both artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice were unlikely to be healthy alternatives to sugar sweetened beverages for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Under assumption of causality, consumption of sugar sweetened beverages over years may be related to a substantial number of cases of new onset diabetes.

Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Reduce Overweight and Obesity in Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Background

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which can lead to weight gain, is rising in middle-income countries (MICs). Taxing SSBs may help address this challenge. Systematic reviews focused on high-income countries indicate that taxing SSBs may reduce SSB consumption. Responsiveness to price changes may differ in MICs, where governments are considering the tax. To help inform their policy decisions, this review compiles evidence from MICs, assessing post-tax price increases (objective 1), changes in demand for SSBs and other products, overall and by socio-economic groups (objective 2), and effects on overweight and obesity prevalence (objective 3).

Methods and Findings

We conducted a systematic review on the effectiveness of SSB taxation in MICs (1990–2016) and identified nine studies from Brazil, Ecuador, India, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Estimates for own-price elasticity ranged from -0.6 to -1.2, and decreases in SSB consumption ranged from 5 to 39 kilojoules per person per day given a 10% increase in SSB prices. The review found that milk is a likely substitute, and foods prepared away from home, snacks, and candy are likely complements to SSBs. A quasi-experimental study and two modeling studies also found a negative relationship between SSB prices and obesity outcomes after accounting for substitution effects. Estimates are consistent despite variation in baseline obesity prevalence and per person per day consumption of SSBs across countries studied.

Conclusions

The review indicates that taxing SSBs will increase the prices of SSBs, especially sugary soda, in markets with few producers. Taxing SSBs will also reduce net energy intake by enough to prevent further growth in obesity prevalence, but not to reduce population weight permanently. Additional research using better survey data and stronger study designs is needed to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of an SSB tax on obesity prevalence in MICs.

Vascular Disease in Young Indians (20-40 years): Role of Dyslipidemia

Dyslipidemia is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Atherosclerosis begins early in life as suggested by "fatty streaks" observed in coronaries of healthy organ donors aged 20-29 years. Premature occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in Indians, increases the risk for young individuals. Management of Dyslipidemia in the young Indian poses several challenges. In this article we provide in-depth review of prevalence, guidelines' perspective and expert comments on management of Dyslipidemia in the young (20-40 years) Indian.

Death by Carbs: Added Sugars and Refined Carbohydrates Cause Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease in Asian Indians

By the year 2030, India will supplant China as the world's most populous nation. Rapid urbanization and an increasingly Westernized diet and lifestyle, in a population with genetic predisposition to insulin resistance is fueling a rising epidemic of non-communicable diseases in India. A diet that is high in processed foods, added sugars and other refined carbohydrates is a principle factor driving the growing epidemics of type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension (HTN), and cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD). Immediate postprandial spikes in the blood levels of glucose and triglycerides cause immediate parallel rises in oxidative stress, inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction; eventually leading to T2D, and CVD. Furthermore the Asian Indian population is particularly susceptible to exaggerated rises in postprandial glucose and triglycerides because they are genetically predisposed to metabolic syndrome (MetSyn), insulin resistance, and T2D. A diet restricting the consumption of refined carbohydrates and limiting added sugars to not more than 5 grams/day should be adopted by Asian Indians to reduce risk of T2D, HTN, coronary disease, and stroke.

Added sugars drive nutrient and energy deficit in obesity: a new paradigm

Obesity has traditionally been thought of as a state of caloric imbalance, where the intake of calories exceeds the expenditure or ‘burning’ of calories. However, a more nuanced appreciation for the complex biochemistry and physiology of cellular energy generation suggests that obesity is a state of hormonal imbalance causing increased shunting of food energy into adipose tissue for storage, resulting in decreased satiety and ultimately leading to increased caloric intake. Adding to this hypothesis, we propose that obesity is also a state of nutrient and energy deficit, leading to decreased fatty acid mobilisation and oxidation, the result of which may be a natural disinclination towards physical activity. Added sugars (sucrose, a.k.a. table sugar and high-fructose corn syrup) may provide energy (4 kcal/g) but at current intakes they do not facilitate—and may even hinder—the production of energy. Not only do added sugars displace nutritionally superior foods in the diet, but they may also deplete nutrients from other foods that have been consumed, as well as from body stores, in order to enable their proper oxidation and liberate their calories as energy. Additionally, the consumption of added sugars damages the mitochondria and hence impairs energy generation. Moreover, overconsuming added sugars may result in a kind of ‘internal starvation’ (via leptin and insulin resistance) leading to further hunger signals in the body. Added sugars promote nutrient and energy deficit and through this novel pathway promote obesity.

Cardiovascular diseases in mega-countries: the challenges of the nutrition, physical activity and epidemiologic transitions, and the double burden of disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There are today 11 mega-countries with more than 100 million inhabitants. Together these countries represent more than 60% of the world's population. All are facing noncommunicable chronic disease (NCD) epidemic where high cholesterol, obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases are becoming the main public health concerns. Most of these countries are facing the double burden of malnutrition where undernutrition and obesity coexist, increasing the complexity for policy design and implementation. The purpose of this study is to describe diverse sociodemographic characteristics of these countries and the challenges for prevention and control in the context of the nutrition transition.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mega-countries are mostly low or middle-income and are facing important epidemiologic, nutrition, and physical activity transitions because of changes in food systems and unhealthy lifestyles. NCDs are responsible of two-thirds of the 57 million global deaths annually. Approximately, 80% of these are in low and middle-income countries. Only developed countries have been able to reduce mortality rates attributable to recognized risk factors for NCDs, in particular high cholesterol and blood pressure.

SUMMARY

Mega-countries share common characteristics such as complex bureaucracies, internal ethnic, cultural and socioeconomic heterogeneity, and complexities to implement effective health promotion and education policies across population. Priorities for action must be identified and successful lessons and experiences should be carefully analyzed and replicated.

Impact of sugars and sugar taxation on body weight control: A comprehensive literature review

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a comprehensive literature review in the field of added-sugar consumption on weight gain including the effect of fructose-containing caloric sweeteners and sugar taxation.

METHODS

A search of three databases was conducted in the time period from the inception of the databases to August 2015. Sensitive search strategies were used in order to retrieve systematic reviews (SR) of fructose, sucrose, or sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on weight gain and metabolic adverse effects, conducted on humans and written in English, Spanish, or French. In addition, a review about SSB taxation and weight outcomes was conducted.

RESULTS

The search yielded 24 SRs about SSBs and obesity, 23 SRs on fructose or SSBs and metabolic adverse effects, and 24 studies about SSB taxation and weight control.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of SRs, especially the most recent ones, with the highest quality and without any disclosed conflict of interest, suggested that the consumption of SSBs is a risk factor for obesity. The effect of fructose-containing caloric sweeteners, on weight gain is mediated by overconsumption of beverages with these sweeteners, leading to an extra provision of energy intake. The tax tool alone on added sugars appears insufficient to curb the obesity epidemic, but it needs to be included in a multicomponent structural strategy.

Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.

METHODS

A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke.

RESULTS

Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000.

CONCLUSIONS

Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

The Effect of Price and Socio-Economic Level on the Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages (SSB): The Case of Ecuador

The objective of this article is to estimate the own-price, cross-price and income elasticities of demand for SSB in Ecuador, as an indispensable step for predicting a reduction in the consumption of said beverages caused by the potential implementation of taxes in Ecuador. In addition, the own-price, cross-price and income elasticities of sugar-free substitutes like mineral water and diet soft drinks and juices are also estimated. The data from the 2011–2012 ENIGHUR, which contains detailed information on household consumption and socioeconomic variables, was used. The estimates are done using Deaton’s Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) which accounts for differences in the quality of goods purchased. This demand system is estimated for different socio-economic groups, according to total household expenditure. The results reveal own-price elasticities for SSB between –1.17 and –1.33 depending on the socio-economic group, in line with the existing evidence for developed countries. Own-price elasticity for non-SSB is between -1 and -1.24. Income elasticities reveal that both SSB and non-SSB are normal goods with elasticities decreasing for higher socio-economic groups. These results show that the consumption of SSB is sensitive to price changes, meaning that the implementation of taxes on said beverages could be effective in reducing their consumption. The fact that non-SSB are also sensitive to price changes would indicate that subsidies could be implemented for the production of some of them.

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000-142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000-80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000-29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000-463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8-14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million-USD1.2 billion) may be averted.

CONCLUSION

Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan.

Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures.

DESIGN

A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the 2012 South African National Income Dynamics Survey to the log-normal distribution and shifting the mean values.

SETTING

Over the past decade the prevalence of obesity and related non-communicable diseases has increased in South Africa, as have the sales and availability of SSB. Soft drink sales in South Africa are projected to grow between 2012 and 2017 at an annual compounded growth rate of 2·4 % in the absence of preventive measures to curb consumption.

RESULTS

A 2·4 % annual growth in SSB sales alongside population growth and ageing will result in an additional 1 287 000 obese adults in South Africa by 2017, 22 % of which will be due to increased SSB consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to meet the South African target of reducing the number of people who are obese and/or overweight by 10 % by 2020, the country cannot afford to delay implementing effective population-wide interventions. In the face of plans to increase growth of SSB, the country will soon face even greater challenges in overcoming obesity and related non-communicable diseases.