Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) with human heart valve transplantation: evaluation of cardio-vascular tissues from two consecutive heart donors with asymptomatic COVID-19

We report on two living donors of explanted hearts while receiving heart transplantation that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the day of donation, although clinically asymptomatic. They underwent heart transplantation for ischaemic and hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy, respectively. After evaluation of donor hearts, we cryopreserved and stored two pulmonary valves for clinical application and one aortic valve for research. Light microscopy of myocardium, mitral valve and aortic and pulmonary arterial wall and RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 test of myocardium, mitral and tricuspid valve and aortic wall for detection of SARS-CoV-2 were performed. Presence of ACE2 in tissues was assessed with immunostaining. Light microscopy revealed a mild eosinophilic myocarditis in the ischemic cardiomyopathy heart, whereas enlarged cardiomyocytes with irregular nucleus and some with cytoplasmic vacuoles in the hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy heart. Aortic and pulmonary wall were histologically normal. Immunostaining revealed diffuse presence of ACE2 in the myocardium of the heart with eosinophilic myocarditis, but only discrete presence in the hypertrophic cardiomyopathy heart. The RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 test showed no presence of the virus in tested tissues. Despite eosinophilic myocarditis in the ischemic cardiomyopathy heart, no viral traces were found in the myocardium and valve tissues. However, ACE2 was present diffusely in the ischemic cardiomyopathy heart. SARS-CoV-2 could not be detected in the cardiac tissues of these COVID-19 asymptomatic heart donors. In our opinion, clinical application of the valves from these donors presents negligible risk for coronavirus transmission. Nonetheless, considering the uncertainty regarding the risk of virus transmission with the human tissue transplantation, we would not release in any case the pulmonary valve recovered from the eosinophilic myocarditis heart. In contrast, we may consider the release of the pulmonary valve from the dilated cardiomyopathy heart only for a life-threatening situation when no other similar allograft were available.

Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations

BACKGROUND

We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years.

METHODS

We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%).

FINDINGS

At 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively.

INTERPRETATIONS

Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children.

FUNDING

National Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4).

Regular testing of asymptomatic healthcare workers identifies cost-efficient SARS-CoV-2 preventive measures

Protecting healthcare professionals is crucial in maintaining a functioning healthcare system. The risk of infection and optimal preventive strategies for healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic remain poorly understood. Here we report the results of a cohort study that included pre- and asymptomatic healthcare workers. A weekly testing regime has been performed in this cohort since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify infected healthcare workers. Based on these observations we have developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that integrates the sources of infection from inside and outside the hospital. The data were used to study how regular testing and a desynchronisation protocol are effective in preventing transmission of COVID-19 infection at work, and compared both strategies in terms of workforce availability and cost-effectiveness. We showed that case incidence among healthcare workers is higher than would be explained solely by community infection. Furthermore, while testing and desynchronisation protocols are both effective in preventing nosocomial transmission, regular testing maintains work productivity with implementation costs.

Simulating near-field enhancement in transmission of airborne viruses with a quadrature-based model

Some infectious diseases, such as influenza, tuberculosis, and SARS-CoV-2, may be transmitted when virus-laden particles expelled from an infectious person are inhaled by someone else, which is known as the airborne transmission route. These virus-laden particles are more concentrated in the expiratory jet of an infectious person than elsewhere in a well-mixed room, but this near-field enhancement in virion exposure has not been well quantified. Transmission of airborne viruses depends on factors that are inherently variable and, in many cases, poorly constrained, and quantifying this uncertainty requires large ensembles of model simulations that span the variability in input parameters. However, models that are well-suited to simulate the near-field evolution of respiratory particles are also computationally expensive, which limits the exploration of parametric uncertainty. In order to perform many simulations that span the wide variability in factors governing airborne transmission, we developed the Quadrature-based model of Respiratory Aerosol and Droplets (QuaRAD). QuaRAD is an efficient framework for simulating the evolution of virus-laden particles after they are expelled from an infectious person, their deposition to the nasal cavity of a susceptible person, and the subsequent risk of initial infection. We simulated 10 000 scenarios to quantify the risk of initial infection by a particular virus, SARS-CoV-2. The predicted risk of infection was highly variable among scenarios and, in each scenario, was strongly enhanced near the infectious individual. In more than 50% of scenarios, the physical distancing needed to avoid near-field enhancements in airborne transmission was beyond the recommended safe distance of two meters (six feet) if the infectious person is not wearing a mask, though this distance defining the near-field extent was also highly variable among scenarios; the variability in the near-field extent is explained predominantly by variability in expiration velocity. Our findings suggest that maintaining at least two meters of distance from an infectious person greatly reduces exposure to airborne virions; protections against airborne transmission, such as N95 respirators, should be available when distancing is not possible.

Routine, Cost-Effective SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance Testing Using Pooled Saliva Limits Viral Spread on a Residential College Campus

Routine testing for SARS-CoV-2 is rare for institutes of higher education due to prohibitive costs and supply chain delays. During spring 2021, we routinely tested all residential students 1 to 2 times per week using pooled, RNA-extraction-free, reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) testing of saliva at a cost of $0.43/sample with same-day results. The limit of detection was 500 copies/ml on individual samples, and analysis indicates 1,000 and 2,500 copies/ml in pools of 5 and 10, respectively, which is orders of magnitude more sensitive than rapid antigen tests. Importantly, saliva testing flagged 83% of semester positives (43,884 tests administered) and was 95.6% concordant with nasopharyngeal diagnostic results (69.0% concordant on the first test when the nucleocapsid gene (N1) cycle threshold (CT) value was >30). Moreover, testing reduced weekly cases by 59.9% in the spring despite far looser restrictions, allowing for more normalcy while eliminating outbreaks. We also coupled our testing with a survey to clarify symptoms and transmissibility among college-age students. While only 8.5% remained asymptomatic throughout, symptoms were disparate and often cold-like (e.g., only 37.3% developed a fever), highlighting the difficulty with relying on symptom monitoring among this demographic. Based on reported symptom progression, we estimate that we removed 348 days of infectious individuals by routine testing. Interestingly, viral load (CT value) at the time of testing did not affect transmissibility (R2 = 0.0085), though those experiencing noticeable symptoms at the time of testing were more likely to spread the virus to close contacts (31.6% versus 14.3%). Together, our findings support routine testing for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Implementation of cost- and resource-efficient approaches should receive strong consideration in communities that lack herd immunity. IMPORTANCE This study highlights the utility of routine testing for SARS-CoV-2 using pooled saliva while maintaining high sensitivity of detection (under 2,500 copies/ml) and rapid turnaround of high volume (up to 930 samples in 8 h by two technicians and one quantitative PCR [qPCR] machine). This pooled approach allowed us to test all residential students 1 to 2 times per week on our college campus during the spring of 2021 and flagged 83% of our semester positives. Most students were asymptomatic or presented with symptoms mirroring common colds at the time of testing, allowing for removal of infectious individuals before they otherwise would have sought testing. To our knowledge, the total per-sample consumable cost of $0.43 is the lowest to date. With many communities still lagging in vaccination rates, routine testing that is cost-efficient highlights the capacity of the laboratory's role in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

COVID-19 underreporting and its impact on vaccination strategies

BACKGROUND

Underreporting cases of infectious diseases poses a major challenge in the analysis of their epidemiological characteristics and dynamical aspects. Without accurate numerical estimates it is difficult to precisely quantify the proportions of severe and critical cases, as well as the mortality rate. Such estimates can be provided for instance by testing the presence of the virus. However, during an ongoing epidemic, such tests' implementation is a daunting task. This work addresses this issue by presenting a methodology to estimate underreported infections based on approximations of the stable rates of hospitalization and death.

METHODS

We present a novel methodology for the stable rate estimation of hospitalization and death related to the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) using publicly available reports from various distinct communities. These rates are then used to estimate underreported infections on the corresponding areas by making use of reported daily hospitalizations and deaths. The impact of underreporting infections on vaccination strategies is estimated under different disease-transmission scenarios using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Removed-like (SEIR) epidemiological model.

RESULTS

For the considered locations, during the period of study, the estimations suggest that the number of infected individuals could reach 30% of the population of these places, representing, in some cases, more than six times the observed numbers. These results are in close agreement with estimates from independent seroprevalence studies, thus providing a strong validation of the proposed methodology. Moreover, the presence of large numbers of underreported infections can reduce the perceived impact of vaccination strategies in reducing rates of mortality and hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

pBy using the proposed methodology and employing a judiciously chosen data analysis implementation, we estimate COVID-19 underreporting from publicly available data. This leads to a powerful way of quantifying underreporting impact on the efficacy of vaccination strategies. As a byproduct, we evaluate the impact of underreporting in the designing of vaccination strategies.

Validation of the COVID-19 Transmission Misinformation Scale and Conditional Indirect Negative Effects on Wearing a Mask in Public

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic devastated the world economy. Global infections and deaths altered the behaviors of generations. The Internet acted as an incredible vehicle for communication but was also a source of unfounded rumors. Unfortunately, this freedom of information sharing and fear of COVID-19 fostered unfounded claims about transmission (e.g., 5G networks spread the disease). With negligible enforcement to stop the spread of rumors and government officials spouting unfounded claims, falsities became ubiquitous. Organizations, public health officials, researchers, and businesses spent limited resources addressing rumors instead of implementing policies to overcome challenges (e.g., speaking to defiant mask wearers versus safe reopening actions). The researchers defined COVID-19 transmission misinformation as false beliefs about the spread and prevention of contracting the disease. Design and validation of the 12-item COVID-19 Transmission Misinformation Scale (CTMS) provides a measure to identify transmission misinformation believers. Indirect COVID-19 transmission misinformation beliefs with a fear of COVID-19 decreased wearing a mask in public intentions. Callousness exacerbated COVID-19 transmission misinformation beliefs as a moderator.

High-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater provides insights into circulating variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) likely emerged from a zoonotic spill-over event and has led to a global pandemic. The public health response has been predominantly informed by surveillance of symptomatic individuals and contact tracing, with quarantine, and other preventive measures have then been applied to mitigate further spread. Non-traditional methods of surveillance such as genomic epidemiology and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) have also been leveraged during this pandemic. Genomic epidemiology uses high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to inform local and international transmission events, as well as the diversity of circulating variants. WBE uses wastewater to analyse community spread, as it is known that SARS-CoV-2 is shed through bodily excretions. Since both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contribute to wastewater inputs, we hypothesized that the resultant pooled sample of population-wide excreta can provide a more comprehensive picture of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity circulating in a community than clinical testing and sequencing alone. In this study, we analysed 91 wastewater samples from 11 states in the USA, where the majority of samples represent Maricopa County, Arizona (USA). With the objective of assessing the viral diversity at a population scale, we undertook a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) analysis on data from 52 samples with >90% SARS-CoV-2 genome coverage of sequence reads, and compared these SNVs with those detected in genomes sequenced from clinical patients. We identified 7973 SNVs, of which 548 were "novel" SNVs that had not yet been identified in the global clinical-derived data as of 17^th June 2020 (the day after our last wastewater sampling date). However, between 17^th of June 2020 and 20^th November 2020, almost half of the novel SNVs have since been detected in clinical-derived data. Using the combination of SNVs present in each sample, we identified the more probable lineages present in that sample and compared them to lineages observed in North America prior to our sampling dates. The wastewater-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequence data indicates there were more lineages circulating across the sampled communities than represented in the clinical-derived data. Principal coordinate analyses identified patterns in population structure based on genetic variation within the sequenced samples, with clear trends associated with increased diversity likely due to a higher number of infected individuals relative to the sampling dates. We demonstrate that genetic correlation analysis combined with SNVs analysis using wastewater sampling can provide a comprehensive snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic population structure circulating within a community, which might not be observed if relying solely on clinical cases.

High-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater provides insights into circulating variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) likely emerged from a zoonotic spill-over event and has led to a global pandemic. The public health response has been predominantly informed by surveillance of symptomatic individuals and contact tracing, with quarantine, and other preventive measures have then been applied to mitigate further spread. Non-traditional methods of surveillance such as genomic epidemiology and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) have also been leveraged during this pandemic. Genomic epidemiology uses high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to inform local and international transmission events, as well as the diversity of circulating variants. WBE uses wastewater to analyse community spread, as it is known that SARS-CoV-2 is shed through bodily excretions. Since both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contribute to wastewater inputs, we hypothesized that the resultant pooled sample of population-wide excreta can provide a more comprehensive picture of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity circulating in a community than clinical testing and sequencing alone. In this study, we analysed 91 wastewater samples from 11 states in the USA, where the majority of samples represent Maricopa County, Arizona (USA). With the objective of assessing the viral diversity at a population scale, we undertook a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) analysis on data from 52 samples with >90% SARS-CoV-2 genome coverage of sequence reads, and compared these SNVs with those detected in genomes sequenced from clinical patients. We identified 7973 SNVs, of which 548 were "novel" SNVs that had not yet been identified in the global clinical-derived data as of 17^th June 2020 (the day after our last wastewater sampling date). However, between 17^th of June 2020 and 20^th November 2020, almost half of the novel SNVs have since been detected in clinical-derived data. Using the combination of SNVs present in each sample, we identified the more probable lineages present in that sample and compared them to lineages observed in North America prior to our sampling dates. The wastewater-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequence data indicates there were more lineages circulating across the sampled communities than represented in the clinical-derived data. Principal coordinate analyses identified patterns in population structure based on genetic variation within the sequenced samples, with clear trends associated with increased diversity likely due to a higher number of infected individuals relative to the sampling dates. We demonstrate that genetic correlation analysis combined with SNVs analysis using wastewater sampling can provide a comprehensive snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic population structure circulating within a community, which might not be observed if relying solely on clinical cases.

Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns

The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events and only moderate restrictions remain necessary. In this equilibrium, daily cases stabilize around ten or fewer new infections per million people. However, stability is endangered if restrictions are relaxed or case numbers grow too high. The latter destabilization marks a tipping point beyond which the spread self-accelerates. We show that a lockdown can reestablish control and that recurring lockdowns are not necessary given sustained, moderate contact reduction. We illustrate how this strategy profits from vaccination and helps mitigate variants of concern. This strategy reduces cumulative cases (and fatalities) four times more than strategies that only avoid hospital collapse. In the long term, immunization, large-scale testing, and international coordination will further facilitate control.

Value of Including CT Chest in the Management of Acute Abdominal Emergencies: Experience During First Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic at a UK District General Hospital

Aims COVID-19 can present with abdominal pain and affects the management of emergency surgical patients. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the incidence of positive findings on CT chest in patients presenting with acute abdomen, who underwent CT thorax as part of the Intercollegiate General Surgical Guidance on COVID-19 during the first wave. To correlate CT chest findings with confirmed cases on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and to determine its influence on surgical management of abdominal emergencies. Methods A retrospective observational study of adult emergency surgical referrals (excluding trauma) for acute abdomen over a 10-week period was performed. COVID-19 changes on CT chest were categorized as per the British Society of Thoracic Imaging (BSTI) CT reporting criteria. Patient demographics, COVID-19 RT-PCR, management and outcome were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, USA) with p-value significant at ≤0.05. Results Of the 160 patients included, 111 (69.38%) had COVID-19 RT-PCR. Twenty-four patients had CT chest findings suggestive of COVID-19. Amongst these, 45.83% demonstrated classic/probable CT features of COVID-19, of which 36.36% had positive RT-PCR. Most patients who had acute abdominal findings had a normal CT chest (p=0.03). Twenty-five (15.63%) patients presenting with abdominal pain had normal CT abdomen and seven (28%) of these had CT features of COVID-19. Only 43 (34.4%) patients needed a surgical intervention, of which 18.6% had COVID-19 changes on CT, confirmed by positive RT-PCR in 12.5%. Conclusion CT chest is an important investigation during the COVID-19 pandemic in suspected cases to help assess the severity of lung involvement. CT chest as an additional investigation modality in acute abdomen had clinically helped in triaging of patients to appropriate specialties but did not influence emergency surgical management.

Impact of a binary triage system and structural reorganization of emergency department on health care workers exposed to suspected COVID-19 patients-a single-centre analysis

BACKGROUND

A binary triage system based on infectivity and facilitated by departmental restructuring was developed to manage suspected COVID-19 patients with an aim to provide effective prevention and control of infection among health care workers (HCWs) in the emergency department. This study analyses the effectiveness of the new triage system and structural reorganization in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A cross-sectional observational study was conducted in the Emergency and Trauma Department, Hospital Kuala Lumpur (ETDHKL). The implementation of a binary triage system separates patients with risk of COVID-19 who present with fever and respiratory symptoms from other patients. Data on exposed HCWs to COVID-19 patients were captured pre-restructuring and post-restructuring of the emergency department and analysed using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 846 HCWs were involved in this study. Pre-restructuring reported 542 HCWs exposed to COVID-19 patients while post-restructuring reported 122. Using the four categorical exposure risks for HCWs which are no identifiable risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk, the number of HCWs exposed during pre-restructuring were 15(1.8%), 504 (59.6%), 15 (1.8%), and 8 (0.9%), respectively, while post-restructuring the numbers were 122 (14.4%), 8 (0.9%), 109 (12.9%), and 5 (0.1%), respectively. There was a 77.5% reduction in the number of exposed HCWs after our implementation of the new system (542 vs 122).

CONCLUSION

A binary triage system based on severity and infectivity and supported with structural reorganization can be effective in reducing HCWs COVID-19 exposure.

Reduced subgenomic RNA expression is a molecular indicator of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

Background

It is estimated that up to 80% of infections caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are asymptomatic and asymptomatic patients can still effectively transmit the virus and cause disease. While much of the effort has been placed on decoding single nucleotide variation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes, considerably less is known about their transcript variation and any correlation with clinical severity in human hosts, as defined here by the presence or absence of symptoms.

Methods

To assess viral genomic signatures of disease severity, we conducted a systematic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 transcripts and genetic variants in 81 clinical specimens collected from symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals using multi-scale transcriptomic analyses including amplicon-seq, short-read metatranscriptome and long-read Iso-seq.

Results

Here we show a highly coordinated and consistent pattern of sgRNA expression from individuals with robust SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection and their expression is significantly repressed in the asymptomatic infections. We also observe widespread inter- and intra-patient variants in viral RNAs, known as quasispecies frequently found in many RNA viruses. We identify unique sets of deletions preferentially found primarily in symptomatic individuals, with many likely to confer changes in SARS-CoV-2 virulence and host responses. Moreover, these frequently occurring structural variants in SARS-CoV-2 genomes serve as a mechanism to further induce SARS-CoV-2 proteome complexity.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that differential sgRNA expression and structural mutational burden are highly correlated with the clinical severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Longitudinally monitoring sgRNA expression and structural diversity could further guide treatment responses, testing strategies, and vaccine development.

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational institutions, August to December 2020, Germany

This study aims at providing estimates on the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 in schools and day-care centres. We calculated secondary attack rates (SARs) using individual-level data from state-wide mandatory notification of index cases in educational institutions, followed by contact tracing and PCR-testing of high-risk contacts. From August to December 2020, every sixth of overall 784 independent index cases was associated with secondary cases in educational institutions. Monitoring of 14 594 institutional high-risk contacts (89% PCR-tested) of 441 index cases during quarantine revealed 196 secondary cases (SAR 1.34%, 0.99-1.78). SARS-CoV-2 infection among high-risk contacts was more likely around teacher-indexes compared to student-/child-indexes (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.17, 1.79-5.59), and in day-care centres compared to secondary schools (IRR 3.23, 1.76-5.91), mainly due to clusters around teacher-indexes in day-care containing a higher mean number of secondary cases per index case (142/113 = 1.26) than clusters around student-indexes in schools (82/474 = 0.17). In 2020, SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk in educational settings was low overall, but varied strongly between setting and role of the index case, indicating the chance for targeted intervention. Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational institutions can powerfully inform public health policy and improve educational justice during the pandemic.

Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance System for COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction in a Large European Dialysis Clinics Network

Accurate predictions of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics may enable timely organizational interventions in high-risk regions. We exploited the interconnection of the Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) European dialysis clinic network to develop a sentinel surveillance system for outbreak prediction. We developed an artificial intelligence-based model considering the information related to all clinics belonging to the European Nephrocare Network. The prediction tool provides risk scores of the occurrence of a COVID-19 outbreak in each dialysis center within a 2-week forecasting horizon. The model input variables include information related to the epidemic status and trends in clinical practice patterns of the target clinic, regional epidemic metrics, and the distance-weighted risk estimates of adjacent dialysis units. On the validation dates, there were 30 (5.09%), 39 (6.52%), and 218 (36.03%) clinics with two or more patients with COVID-19 infection during the 2-week prediction window. The performance of the model was suitable in all testing windows: AUC = 0.77, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively. The occurrence of new cases in a clinic propagates distance-weighted risk estimates to proximal dialysis units. Our machine learning sentinel surveillance system may allow for a prompt risk assessment and timely response to COVID-19 surges throughout networked European clinics.

Molecular diagnostics in the era of COVID-19

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate globally and acquires new mutations, accurate diagnostic technologies continue to play a vital role in controlling and understanding the epidemiology of this disease. A plethora of technologies have enabled the diagnosis of individuals, informed clinical management, aided population-wide screening to determine transmission rates and identified cases within the wider community and high-risk settings. This review explores the application of molecular diagnostics technologies in controlling the spread of COVID-19, and the key factors that affect the sensitivity and specificity of the tests used.

Vaccination and testing of the border workforce for COVID-19 and risk of community outbreaks: a modelling study

Throughout 2020 and the first part of 2021, Australia and New Zealand have followed a COVID-19 elimination strategy. Both countries require overseas arrivals to quarantine in government-managed facilities at the border. In both countries, community outbreaks of COVID-19 have been started via infection of a border worker. This workforce is rightly being prioritized for vaccination. However, although vaccines are highly effective in preventing disease, their effectiveness in preventing infection with and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is less certain. There is a danger that vaccination could prevent symptoms of COVID-19 but not prevent transmission. Here, we use a stochastic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and testing to investigate the effect that vaccination of border workers has on the risk of an outbreak in an unvaccinated community. We simulate the model starting with a single infected border worker and measure the number of people who are infected before the first case is detected by testing. We show that if a vaccine reduces transmission by 50%, vaccination of border workers increases the risk of a major outbreak from around 7% per seed case to around 9% per seed case. The lower the vaccine effectiveness against transmission, the higher the risk. The increase in risk as a result of vaccination can be mitigated by increasing the frequency of routine testing for high-exposure vaccinated groups.

SARS-CoV-2 disease severity and transmission efficiency is increased for airborne compared to fomite exposure in Syrian hamsters

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by contact, fomite, and airborne transmission. The relative contribution of different transmission routes remains subject to debate. Here, we show Syrian hamsters are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection through intranasal, aerosol and fomite exposure. Different routes of exposure present with distinct disease manifestations. Intranasal and aerosol inoculation causes severe respiratory pathology, higher virus loads and increased weight loss. In contrast, fomite exposure leads to milder disease manifestation characterized by an anti-inflammatory immune state and delayed shedding pattern. Whereas the overall magnitude of respiratory virus shedding is not linked to disease severity, the onset of shedding is. Early shedding is linked to an increase in disease severity. Airborne transmission is more efficient than fomite transmission and dependent on the direction of the airflow. Carefully characterized SARS-CoV-2 transmission models will be crucial to assess potential changes in transmission and pathogenic potential in the light of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

Mathematical modelling of the spread of COVID-19 on a university campus

In this paper we present a deterministic transmission dynamic compartmental model for the spread of the novel coronavirus on a college campus for the purpose of analyzing strategies to mitigate an outbreak. The goal of this project is to determine and compare the utility of certain containment strategies including gateway testing, surveillance testing, and contact tracing as well as individual level control measures such as mask wearing and social distancing. We modify a standard SEIR-type model to reflect what is currently known about COVID-19. We also modify the model to reflect the population present on a college campus, separating it into students and faculty. This is done in order to capture the expected different contact rates between groups as well as the expected difference in outcomes based on age known for COVID-19. We aim to provide insight into which strategies are most effective, rather than predict exact numbers of infections. We analyze effectiveness by looking at relative changes in the total number of cases as well as the effect a measure has on the estimated basic reproductive number. We find that the total number of infections is most sensitive to parameters relating to student behaviors. We also find that contact tracing can be an effective control strategy when surveillance testing is unavailable. Lastly, we validate the model using data from Villanova University's online COVID-19 Dashboard from Fall 2020 and find good agreement between model and data when superspreader events are incorporated in the model as shocks to the number of infected individuals approximately two weeks after each superspreader event.

Recursive contact tracing in Reed-Frost epidemic models

We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work (Bulchandani et al 2021Phys. Biol.18045004) to finite populations and general contact networks. We simulate the model numerically for two representative examples, the complete graph and the square lattice. On both networks, we observe clear signatures of a contact-tracing phase transition from an 'epidemic phase' to an 'immune phase' as contact-network coverage is increased. We verify that away from the singular line of perfect tracing, the finite-size scaling of the contact-tracing phase transition on each network lies in the corresponding percolation universality class. Finally, we use the model to quantify the efficacy of recursive contact-tracing in regimes where epidemic spread is not contained.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Drug Use in Trauma Patients from Six Sites in the United States

In comparison to the general patient population, trauma patients show higher level detections of bloodborne infectious diseases, such as Hepatitis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus. In comparison to bloodborne pathogens, the prevalence of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 and how that relates with other variables, such as drug usage and trauma type, is currently unknown in trauma populations. Here, we evaluated SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and antibody isotype profile in 2,542 trauma patients from six Level-1 trauma centers between April and October of 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the seroprevalence in trauma victims 18-44 years old (9.79%, 95% confidence interval/CI: 8.33 - 11.47) was much higher in comparison to older patients (45-69 years old: 6.03%, 4.59-5.88; 70+ years old: 4.33%, 2.54 - 7.20). Black/African American (9.54%, 7.77 - 11.65) and Hispanic/Latino patients (14.95%, 11.80 - 18.75) also had higher seroprevalence in comparison, respectively, to White (5.72%, 4.62 - 7.05) and Non-Latino patients (6.55%, 5.57 - 7.69). More than half (55.54%) of those tested for drug toxicology had at least one drug present in their system. Those that tested positive for narcotics or sedatives had a significant negative correlation with seropositivity, while those on anti-depressants trended positive. These findings represent an important consideration for both the patients and first responders that treat trauma patients facing potential risk of respiratory infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies to contain school-associated transmission: model-based analysis of impact and cost of diagnostic testing, screening, and surveillance

Background

In March 2021, the Biden administration allocated $10 billion for COVID-19 testing in schools. We evaluate the costs and benefits of testing strategies to reduce the infection risks of full-time in-person K-8 education at different levels of community incidence.

Methods

We used an agent-based network model to simulate transmission in elementary and middle school communities, parameterized to a US school structure and assuming dominance of the delta COVID-19 variant. We assess the value of different strategies for testing students and faculty/staff, including expanded diagnostic testing ("test to stay" policies that take the place of isolation for symptomatic students or quarantine for exposed classrooms); screening (routinely testing asymptomatic individuals to identify infections and contain transmission); and surveillance (testing a random sample of students to signaling undetected transmission and trigger additional investigation or interventions).

Main outcome measures

We project 30-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection; proportion of cases detected; proportion of planned and unplanned days out of school; and the cost of testing programs and of childcare costs associated with different strategies. For screening policies, we further estimate cost per SARS-CoV-2 infection averted in students and staff, and for surveillance, probability of correctly or falsely triggering an outbreak response at different incidence and attack rates.

Results

Accounting for programmatic and childcare costs, "test to stay" policies achieve similar model-projected transmission to quarantine policies, with reduced overall costs. Weekly universal screening prevents approximately 50% of in-school transmission, with a lower projected societal cost than hybrid or remote schooling. The cost per infection averted in students and staff by weekly screening is lower for older students and schools with higher mitigation and declines as community transmission rises. In settings where local student incidence is unknown or rapidly changing, surveillance may trigger detection of moderate-to-large in-school outbreaks with fewer resources compared to screening.

Conclusions

"Test to stay" policies and/or screening tests can facilitate consistent in-person school attendance with low transmission risk across a range of community incidence. Surveillance may be a useful reduced-cost option for detecting outbreaks and identifying school environments that may benefit from increased mitigation.

COVID-19 Case Rates in the UK: Modelling Uncertainties as Lockdown Lifts

Background: The UK was one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. A strict lockdown from early 2021 combined with an aggressive vaccination programme enabled a gradual easing of lockdown measures to be introduced whilst both deaths and reported case numbers reduced to less than 3% of their peak. The emergence of the Delta variant in April 2021 has reversed this trend, and the UK is once again experiencing surging cases, albeit with reduced average severity due to the success of the vaccination rollout. This study presents the results of a modelling exercise which simulates the progression of the pandemic in the UK through projection of daily case numbers as lockdown lifts. Methods: A simulation model based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered structure was built. A timeline of UK lockdown measures was used to simulate the changing restrictions. The model was tailored for the UK, with some values set based on research and others obtained through calibration against 16 months of historical data. Results: The model projects that if lockdown restrictions are lifted in July 2021, UK COVID-19 cases will peak at hundreds of thousands daily in most viable scenarios, reducing in late 2021 as immunity acquired through both vaccination and infection reduces the susceptible population percentage. Further lockdown measures can be used to reduce daily cases. Other than the ever-present threat of the emergence of new variants, the most significant unknown factors affecting the profile of the pandemic in the UK are the length and strength of immunity, with daily peak cases over 50% higher if immunity lasts 8 months compared to 12 months. Another significant factor is the percentage of unreported cases. The reduced case severity associated with vaccination may lead to a higher proportion of unreported mild or asymptomatic cases, meaning that unmanaged infections resulting from unknown cases will continue to be a major source of infection. Conclusions: Further research into the length and strength of both recovered and vaccinated COVID-19 immunity is critical to delivering more accurate projections from models, thus enabling more finely tuned policy decisions. The model presented in this article, whilst by no means perfect, aims to contribute to greater transparency of the modelling process, which can only increase trust between policy makers, journalists and the general public.

Differential Kinetics of Cycle Threshold Values during Admission by Symptoms among Patients with Mild COVID-19: A Prospective Cohort Study

In the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, more than half of the cases of transmission may occur via asymptomatic individuals, which makes it difficult to contain. However, whether viral load in the throat during admission is different between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients is not well known. By conducting a prospective cohort study of patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19, cycle threshold (Ct) values of the polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19 were examined every other day during admission. The Ct values during admission increased more steadily in symptomatic patients and febrile patients than in asymptomatic patients, with significance (p = 0.01 and p = 0.004, respectively), although the Ct values as a whole were not significantly different between the two groups. Moreover, the Ct values as a whole were higher in patients with dysosmia/dysgeusia than in those without it (p = 0.02), whereas they were lower in patients with a headache than those without (p = 0.01). Patients who were IgG-positive at discharge maintained higher Ct values, e.g., more than 35, during admission than those with IgG-negative (p = 0.03). Assuming that viral load and Ct values are negatively associated, the viral loads as a whole and their changes by time may be different by symptoms and immune reaction, i.e., IgG-positive at discharge.

Rapid, early and accurate SARS-CoV-2 detection using RT-qPCR in primary care: a prospective cohort study (REAP-1)

OBJECTIVES

We explore the importance of SARS-CoV-2 sentinel surveillance testing in primary care during a regional COVID-19 outbreak in Austria.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

A single sentinel practice serving 22 829 people in the ski-resort of Schladming-Dachstein.

PARTICIPANTS

All 73 patients presenting with mild-to-moderate flu-like symptoms between 24 February and 03 April, 2020.

INTERVENTION

Nasopharyngeal sampling to detect SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcriptase-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR).

OUTCOME MEASURES

We compared RT-qPCR at presentation with confirmed antibody status. We split the outbreak in two parts, by halving the period from the first to the last case, to characterise three cohorts of patients with confirmed infection: early acute (RT-qPCR reactive) in the first half; and late acute (reactive) and late convalescent (non-reactive) in the second half. For each cohort, we report the number of cases detected, the accuracy of RT-qPCR, the duration and variety of symptoms, and the number of viral clades present.

RESULTS

Twenty-two patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 (eight early acute, seven late acute and seven late convalescent), 44 patients tested SARS-CoV-2 negative and 7 were excluded. The sensitivity of RT-qPCR was 100% among all acute cases, dropping to 68.1% when including convalescent. Test specificity was 100%. Mean duration of symptoms for each group were 2 days (range 1-4) among early acute, 4.4 days (1-7) among late acute and 8 days (2-12) among late convalescent. Confirmed infection was associated with loss of taste. Acute infection was associated with loss of taste, nausea/vomiting, breathlessness, sore throat and myalgia; but not anosmia, fever or cough. Transmission clusters of three viral clades (G, GR and L) were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

RT-qPCR testing in primary care can rapidly and accurately detect SARS-CoV-2 among people with flu-like illness in a heterogeneous viral outbreak. Targeted testing in primary care can support national sentinel surveillance of COVID-19.

A systematic approach to estimating the effectiveness of multi-scale IAQ strategies for reducing the risk of airborne infection of SARS-CoV-2

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has made more than 125 million people infected and more than 2.7 million people dead globally. Airborne transmission has been recognized as one of the major transmission routes for SARS-CoV-2. This paper presents a systematic approach for evaluating the effectiveness of multi-scale IAQ control strategies in mitigating the infection risk in different scenarios. The IAQ control strategies across multiple scales from a whole building to rooms, and to cubical and personal microenvironments and breathing zone, are introduced, including elevated outdoor airflow rates, high-efficiency filters, advanced air distribution strategies, standalone air cleaning technologies, personal ventilation and face masks. The effectiveness of these strategies for reducing the risk of COVID-19 infection are evaluated for specific indoor spaces, including long-term care facility, school and college, meat plant, retail stores, hospital, office, correctional facility, hotel, restaurant, casino and transportation spaces like airplane, cruise ship, subway, bus and taxi, where airborne transmission are more likely to occur due to high occupancy densities. The baseline cases of these spaces are established according to the existing standards, guidelines or practices. Several integrated mitigation strategies are recommended and classified based on their relative cost and effort of implementation for each indoor space. They can be applied to help meet the current challenge of ongoing COVID-19, and provide better preparation for other possible epidemics and pandemics of airborne infectious diseases in the future.

Empowering the crowd: feasible strategies for epidemic management in high-density informal settlements. The case of COVID-19 in Northwest Syria

More than 1 billion people live in informal settlements worldwide, where precarious living conditions pose unique challenges to managing a COVID-19 outbreak. Taking Northwest Syria as a case study, we simulated an outbreak in high-density informal Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps using a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model. Expanding on previous studies, taking social conditions and population health/structure into account, we modelled several interventions feasible in these settings: moderate self-distancing, self-isolation of symptomatic cases and protection of the most vulnerable in 'safety zones'. We considered complementary measures to these interventions that can be implemented autonomously by these communities, such as buffer zones, health checks and carers for isolated individuals, quantifying their impact on the micro-dynamics of disease transmission. All interventions significantly reduce outbreak probability and some of them reduce mortality when an outbreak does occur. Self-distancing reduces mortality by up to 35% if contacts are reduced by 50%. A reduction in mortality by up to 18% can be achieved by providing one self-isolation tent per eight people. Protecting the most vulnerable in a safety zone reduces the outbreak probability in the vulnerable population and has synergistic effects with the other interventions. Our model predicts that a combination of all simulated interventions may reduce mortality by more than 90% and delay an outbreak's peak by almost 2 months. Our results highlight the potential for non-medical interventions to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. Similar measures may be applicable to controlling COVID-19 in other informal settlements, particularly IDP camps in conflict regions, around the world.

Passing the Test: A Model-Based Analysis of Safe School-Reopening Strategies

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced historic educational disruptions. In April 2021, about 40% of U.S. public school students were not offered full-time in-person education.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools.

DESIGN

An agent-based network model was developed to simulate transmission in elementary and high school communities, including home, school, and interhousehold interactions.

SETTING

School structure was parametrized to reflect average U.S. classrooms, with elementary schools of 638 students and high schools of 1451 students. Daily local incidence was varied from 1 to 100 cases per 100 000 persons.

PARTICIPANTS

Students, faculty, staff, and adult household members.

INTERVENTION

Isolation of symptomatic individuals, quarantine of an infected individual's contacts, reduced class sizes, alternative schedules, staff vaccination, and weekly asymptomatic screening.

MEASUREMENTS

Transmission was projected among students, staff, and families after a single infection in school and over an 8-week quarter, contingent on local incidence.

RESULTS

School transmission varies according to student age and local incidence and is substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Nevertheless, when transmission occurs, it may be difficult to detect without regular testing because of the subclinical nature of most children's infections. Teacher vaccination can reduce transmission to staff, and asymptomatic screening improves understanding of local circumstances and reduces transmission.

LIMITATION

Uncertainty exists about the susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and precision is low regarding the effectiveness of specific countermeasures, particularly with new variants.

CONCLUSION

With controlled community transmission and moderate mitigation, elementary schools can open safety, but high schools require more intensive mitigation. Asymptomatic screening can facilitate reopening at higher local incidence while minimizing transmission risk.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and Facebook.

A Machine-Generated View of the Role of Blood Glucose Levels in the Severity of COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 started spreading toward the end of 2019 causing COVID-19, a disease that reached pandemic proportions among the human population within months. The reasons for the spectrum of differences in the severity of the disease across the population, and in particular why the disease affects more severely the aging population and those with specific preconditions are unclear. We developed machine learning models to mine 240,000 scientific articles openly accessible in the CORD-19 database, and constructed knowledge graphs to synthesize the extracted information and navigate the collective knowledge in an attempt to search for a potential common underlying reason for disease severity. The machine-driven framework we developed repeatedly pointed to elevated blood glucose as a key facilitator in the progression of COVID-19. Indeed, when we systematically retraced the steps of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, we found evidence linking elevated glucose to each major step of the life-cycle of the virus, progression of the disease, and presentation of symptoms. Specifically, elevations of glucose provide ideal conditions for the virus to evade and weaken the first level of the immune defense system in the lungs, gain access to deep alveolar cells, bind to the ACE2 receptor and enter the pulmonary cells, accelerate replication of the virus within cells increasing cell death and inducing an pulmonary inflammatory response, which overwhelms an already weakened innate immune system to trigger an avalanche of systemic infections, inflammation and cell damage, a cytokine storm and thrombotic events. We tested the feasibility of the hypothesis by manually reviewing the literature referenced by the machine-generated synthesis, reconstructing atomistically the virus at the surface of the pulmonary airways, and performing quantitative computational modeling of the effects of glucose levels on the infection process. We conclude that elevation in glucose levels can facilitate the progression of the disease through multiple mechanisms and can explain much of the differences in disease severity seen across the population. The study provides diagnostic considerations, new areas of research and potential treatments, and cautions on treatment strategies and critical care conditions that induce elevations in blood glucose levels.

COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection

Scientists across disciplines, policymakers, and journalists have voiced frustration at the unprecedented polarization and misinformation around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Several false dichotomies have been used to polarize debates while oversimplifying complex issues. In this comprehensive narrative review, we deconstruct six common COVID-19 false dichotomies, address the evidence on these topics, identify insights relevant to effective pandemic responses, and highlight knowledge gaps and uncertainties. The topics of this review are: 1) Health and lives vs. economy and livelihoods, 2) Indefinite lockdown vs. unlimited reopening, 3) Symptomatic vs. asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, 4) Droplet vs. aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, 5) Masks for all vs. no masking, and 6) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection vs. no reinfection. We discuss the importance of multidisciplinary integration (health, social, and physical sciences), multilayered approaches to reducing risk ("Emmentaler cheese model"), harm reduction, smart masking, relaxation of interventions, and context-sensitive policymaking for COVID-19 response plans. We also address the challenges in understanding the broad clinical presentation of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. These key issues of science and public health policy have been presented as false dichotomies during the pandemic. However, they are hardly binary, simple, or uniform, and therefore should not be framed as polar extremes. We urge a nuanced understanding of the science and caution against black-or-white messaging, all-or-nothing guidance, and one-size-fits-all approaches. There is a need for meaningful public health communication and science-informed policies that recognize shades of gray, uncertainties, local context, and social determinants of health.

Determination of the characteristic inactivation fluence for SARS-CoV-2 under UV-C radiation considering light absorption in culture media

The optical absorption coefficient of culture media is critical for the survival analysis of pathogens under optical irradiation. The quality of the results obtained from experiments relies on the optical analysis of the spatial distribution of fluence which also depends on the geometry of the sample. In this contribution, we consider both the geometrical shape and the culture medium's absorption coefficient to evaluate how the spatial distribution of optical radiation affects pathogens/viruses. In this work, we exposed SARS-CoV-2 to UV-C radiation ([Formula: see text] = 254 nm) and we calculated-considering the influence of the optical absorption of the culture medium-a characteristic inactivation fluence of [Formula: see text] = 4.7 J/m2, or an equivalent 10% survival (D90 dose) of 10.8 J/m2. Experimentally, we diluted the virus into sessile drops of Dulbecco's Modified Eagle Medium to evaluate pathogen activity after controlled doses of UV irradiation. To validate the optical absorption mode, we carried out an additional experiment where we varied droplet size. Our model-including optical absorption and geometrical considerations-provides robust results among a variety of experimental situations, and represents our experimental conditions more accurately. These results will help to evaluate the capability of UV disinfecting strategies applied to a variety of everyday situations, including the case of micro-droplets generated by respiratory functions.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Dogs and Cats from Southern Germany and Northern Italy during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has affected millions of people globally since its first detection in late 2019. Besides humans, cats and, to some extent, dogs were shown to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, highlighting the need for surveillance in a One Health context. Seven veterinary clinics from regions with high incidences of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were recruited during the early pandemic (March to July 2020) for the screening of patients. A total of 2257 oropharyngeal and nasal swab specimen from 877 dogs and 260 cats (including 18 animals from COVID-19-affected households and 92 animals with signs of respiratory disease) were analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) targeting the viral envelope (E) and RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) genes. One oropharyngeal swab from an Italian cat, living in a COVID-19-affected household in Piedmont, tested positive in RT-qPCR (1/260; 0.38%, 95% CI: 0.01-2.1%), and SARS-CoV-2 infection of the animal was serologically confirmed six months later. One oropharyngeal swab from a dog was potentially positive (1/877; 0.1%, 95% CI: 0.002-0.63%), but the result was not confirmed in a reference laboratory. Analyses of convenience sera from 118 animals identified one dog (1/94; 1.1%; 95% CI: 0.02-5.7%) from Lombardy, but no cats (0/24), as positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) antibodies and neutralizing activity. These findings support the hypothesis that the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pet cat and dog populations, and hence, the risk of zoonotic transmission to veterinary staff, was low during the first wave of the pandemic, even in hotspot areas.

A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US

A model of a COVID-19 epidemic is used to predict the effectiveness of vaccination in the US. The model incorporates key features of COVID-19 epidemics: asymptomatic and symptomatic infectiousness, reported and unreported cases data, and social measures implemented to decrease infection transmission. The model analyzes the effectiveness of vaccination in terms of vaccination efficiency, vaccination scheduling, and relaxation of social measures that decrease disease transmission. The model demonstrates that the subsiding of the epidemic as vaccination is implemented depends critically on the scale of relaxation of social measures that reduce disease transmission.

Risk of infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among children and adolescents in households, communities and educational settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty with respect to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in children (0-19 years) with controversy on effectiveness of school-closures in controlling the pandemic. It is of equal importance to evaluate the risk of transmission in children who are often asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers that may incidentally transmit SARS-CoV-2 in different settings. We conducted this review to assess transmission and risks for SARS-CoV-2 in children (by age-groups or grades) in community and educational-settings compared to adults.

METHODS

Data for the review were retrieved from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, WHO COVID-19 Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) Database, WanFang Database, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Google Scholar, and preprints from medRixv and bioRixv) covering a timeline from December 1, 2019 to April 1, 2021. Population-screening, contact-tracing and cohort studies reporting prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in children were included. Data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3.

RESULTS

Ninety studies were included. Compared to adults, children showed comparable national (risk ratio (RR) = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-1.060 and subnational (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01) prevalence in population-screening studies, and lower odds of infection in community/household contact-tracing studies (odds ratio (OR) = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.46-0.84). On disaggregation, adolescents observed comparable risk (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.74-2.04) with adults. In educational-settings, children attending daycare/preschools (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.38-0.72) were observed to be at lower-risk when compared to adults, with odds of infection among primary (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.55-1.31) and high-schoolers (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.71-2.38) comparable to adults. Overall, children and adolescents had lower odds of infection in educational-settings compared to community and household clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Children (<10 years) showed lower susceptibility to COVID-19 compared to adults, whereas adolescents in communities and high-schoolers had comparable risk. Risks of infection among children in educational-settings was lower than in communities. Evidence from school-based studies demonstrate it is largely safe for children (<10 years) to be at schools, however older children (10-19 years) might facilitate transmission. Despite this evidence, studies focusing on the effectiveness of mitigation measures in educational settings are urgently needed to support both public health and educational policy-making for school reopening.

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background

Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load).

Methods

We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression.

Results

Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9-32.8, 14-56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative.

Conclusions

Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator.

Funding

Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust.

Protocol of the Cologne Corona Surveillance (CoCoS) Study- a prospective population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Surveillance strategies are critical to cope with the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and to evaluate, as well as adjust government-imposed countermeasures. Incidence estimates are widely based on laboratory confirmed cases reported by health authorities. Prevalence and incidence data of SARS-CoV-2 is still scarce, along with demographic and behavioural factors associated with infection risk.

METHODS

The Cologne Corona Surveillance Study will be conducted in the City of Cologne, which is the fourth-largest city in Germany with a population of approximately 1.1 million. Researchers will apply self-sampling surveillance to a rolling cohort of Cologne residents. Random samples of 6000 Cologne residents 18 years of age and older will be drawn from the registration office. Upon receiving the information and saliva sample kit, participants will be asked to fill out a questionnaire online or via phone, sign written informed consent, and send back written consent, as well as saliva sample. The saliva samples will be tested for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse PCR. The questionnaire will be administered to gather information about personal characteristics such as health status and risks. A second round of testing will take place 6 weeks after the first.

DISCUSSION

Self-administered saliva sampling proved to be a legitimate and feasible alternative to nasopharyngeal swabs taken by health professionals. However, it is unclear whether the targeted response rate of 40% can be achieved and whether the results are representative of the population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Denmark: nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study

Seroprevalence studies have proven an important tool to monitor the progression of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We present results of consecutive population-based seroprevalence surveys performed in Denmark in 2020. In spring, late summer and autumn/winter of 2020, invitation letters including a questionnaire covering symptoms were sent to representative samples of the population above 12 years and to parents of children below 18 years in the sample. Blood samples were analysed for total Ig and seroprevalence estimates per population segment were calculated and compared to other surveillance parameters. Based on 34 081 participants (participation rate 33%), seroprevalence estimates increased from 1.2% (95%CI: 0.3-1.9%) in May to 4.1% (95%CI: 3.1-4.9%) in December 2020. Seroprevalence estimates were roughly three times higher in those aged 12-29 years compared to 65 + and higher in metropolitan municipalities. By December 2020, 1.5% of the population had tested positive by RT-PCR. Infected individuals in older age groups were hospitalised several fold more often than in younger. Amongst seropositives, loss of taste/smell were the more specific symptoms, 32-56% did not report any symptoms. In more than half of seroconverted families, we did not see evidence of transmission between generations. Seroprevalence increased during 2020; adolescents were primarily infected in the autumn/winter. Denmark has a high per capita test rate; roughly one undiagnosed infection of SARS-CoV-2 were estimated to occur for each diagnosed case. Approximately half were asymptomatically infected. The epidemic appears to have progressed relatively modestly during 2020 in Denmark.

Real-World Evidence: The Low Validity of Temperature Screening for COVID-19 Triage

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic forced health-related organizations to rapidly launch country-wide procedures that were easy to use and inexpensive. Body temperature measurement with non-contact infrared thermometers (NCITs) is among the most common procedures, both in hospital settings and in many other entities. However, practical hospital experiences have raised great doubts about the procedure's validity. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the validity of the body temperature measured using NCITs among oncological and transplant patients who took the polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-Cov-2 PCR+ and PCR- in a Romanian Hospital. Methods: Body temperature was measured for 5,231 inpatients using NCITs. The cutoff point for fever was equal to or above 37.3°C. Patients then completed a questionnaire about their symptoms, contact, and travel history. Findings: Fever was detected in five of 53 persons with PCR+, resulting in a sensitivity of 9.43% (95% CI, 3.13-20.66%). No fever was verified in 5,131 of 5,171 persons with PCR-, resulting in a specificity of 99.15% (95% CI, 98.86-99.38%). A defensive vision of NCIT procedure (maximum standard error only in favor) had a sensitivity of 15.09% (95% CI, 6.75-27.59%). Conclusions: The use of NCITs in a triage provides little value for detection of COVID-19. Moreover, it provides a false sense of protection against the disease while possibly discriminating individuals that could present fever due to other reasons, such as oncologic treatments, where fever is a common therapeutical consequence. The consumption of qualified human resources should be considered, especially in the context of the shortage of healthcare professionals worldwide.

Global seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Many studies report the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies. We aimed to synthesize seroprevalence data to better estimate the level and distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection, identify high-risk groups, and inform public health decision making.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched publication databases, preprint servers, and grey literature sources for seroepidemiological study reports, from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020. We included studies that reported a sample size, study date, location, and seroprevalence estimate. We corrected estimates for imperfect test accuracy with Bayesian measurement error models, conducted meta-analysis to identify demographic differences in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and meta-regression to identify study-level factors associated with seroprevalence. We compared region-specific seroprevalence data to confirmed cumulative incidence. PROSPERO: CRD42020183634.

RESULTS

We identified 968 seroprevalence studies including 9.3 million participants in 74 countries. There were 472 studies (49%) at low or moderate risk of bias. Seroprevalence was low in the general population (median 4.5%, IQR 2.4-8.4%); however, it varied widely in specific populations from low (0.6% perinatal) to high (59% persons in assisted living and long-term care facilities). Median seroprevalence also varied by Global Burden of Disease region, from 0.6% in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania to 19.5% in Sub-Saharan Africa (p<0.001). National studies had lower seroprevalence estimates than regional and local studies (p<0.001). Compared to Caucasian persons, Black persons (prevalence ratio [RR] 3.37, 95% CI 2.64-4.29), Asian persons (RR 2.47, 95% CI 1.96-3.11), Indigenous persons (RR 5.47, 95% CI 1.01-32.6), and multi-racial persons (RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.60-2.24) were more likely to be seropositive. Seroprevalence was higher among people ages 18-64 compared to 65 and over (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.45). Health care workers in contact with infected persons had a 2.10 times (95% CI 1.28-3.44) higher risk compared to health care workers without known contact. There was no difference in seroprevalence between sex groups. Seroprevalence estimates from national studies were a median 18.1 times (IQR 5.9-38.7) higher than the corresponding SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, but there was large variation between Global Burden of Disease regions from 6.7 in South Asia to 602.5 in Sub-Saharan Africa. Notable methodological limitations of serosurveys included absent reporting of test information, no statistical correction for demographics or test sensitivity and specificity, use of non-probability sampling and use of non-representative sample frames.

DISCUSSION

Most of the population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Public health measures must be improved to protect disproportionately affected groups, including racial and ethnic minorities, until vaccine-derived herd immunity is achieved. Improvements in serosurvey design and reporting are needed for ongoing monitoring of infection prevalence and the pandemic response.

What containment strategy leads us through the pandemic crisis? An empirical analysis of the measures against the COVID-19 pandemic

Since January 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak has been progressing at a rapid pace. To keep the pandemic at bay, countries have implemented various measures to interrupt the transmission of the virus from person to person and prevent an overload of their health systems. We analyze the impact of these measures implemented against the COVID-19 pandemic by using a sample of 68 countries, Puerto Rico and the 50 federal states of the United States of America, four federal states of Australia, and eight federal states of Canada, involving 6,941 daily observations. We show that measures are essential for containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. After controlling for daily COVID-19 tests, we find evidence to suggest that school closures, shut-downs of non-essential business, mass gathering bans, travel restrictions in and out of risk areas, national border closures and/or complete entry bans, and nationwide curfews decrease the growth rate of the coronavirus and thus the peak of daily confirmed cases. We also find evidence to suggest that combinations of these measures decrease the daily growth rate at a level outweighing that of individual measures. Consequently, and despite extensive vaccinations, we contend that the implemented measures help contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and ease the overstressed capacity of the healthcare systems.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection Detection by PCR and Serologic Testing in Clinical Practice

Patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be diagnosed by PCR during acute infection or later in their clinical course by detection of virus-specific antibodies. While in theory complementary, both PCR and serologic tests have practical shortcomings. A retrospective study was performed in order to further define these limitations in a clinical context and to determine how to best utilize these tests in a coherent fashion. A total of 3,075 patients underwent both PCR and serology tests at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), in the study period. Among these, 2,731 (89%) had no positive tests at all, 73 (2%) had a positive PCR test and only negative serology tests, 144 (5%) had a positive serology test and only negative PCR tests, and 127 (4%) had positive PCR and serology tests. Approximately half of the patients with discordant results (i.e., PCR positive and serology negative or vice versa) had mistimed tests in reference to the course of their disease. PCR-positive patients who were asymptomatic or pregnant were less likely to generate a detectable humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2. On a quantitative level, the log number of days between symptom onset and PCR test was positively correlated with cycle threshold (CT) values. However, there was no apparent relationship between PCR CT and serologic (arbitrary units per milliliter) results.

Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador

In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40-70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in the North American deer mouse

Widespread circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in humans raises the theoretical risk of reverse zoonosis events with wildlife, reintroductions of SARS-CoV-2 into permissive nondomesticated animals. Here we report that North American deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection following intranasal exposure to a human isolate, resulting in viral replication in the upper and lower respiratory tract with little or no signs of disease. Further, shed infectious virus is detectable in nasal washes, oropharyngeal and rectal swabs, and viral RNA is detectable in feces and occasionally urine. We further show that deer mice are capable of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to naïve deer mice through direct contact. The extent to which these observations may translate to wild deer mouse populations remains unclear, and the risk of reverse zoonosis and/or the potential for the establishment of Peromyscus rodents as a North American reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown.

Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies

We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated from in-sample data using a random optimization scheme, and indicate changes in social distancing along the course of the pandemic. That allows the estimation of the time evolution of classical and age-dependent reproduction numbers. With those parameters we predict the disease dynamics, and compare our results with out-of-sample data from the City of Rio de Janeiro. Finally, we provide a numerical investigation regarding age-based vaccination policies, shedding some light on whether is preferable to vaccinate those at most risk (the elderly) or those who spread the disease the most (the youngest). There is no clear upshot, as the results depend on the age of those immunized, contagious parameters, vaccination schedules and efficiency.

Identification of Lung and Blood Microbiota Implicated in COVID-19 Prognosis

The implications of the microbiome on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prognosis has not been thoroughly studied. In this study we aimed to characterize the lung and blood microbiome and their implication on COVID-19 prognosis through analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples, lung biopsy samples, and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples. In all three tissue types, we found panels of microbes differentially abundant between COVID-19 and normal samples correlated to immune dysregulation and upregulation of inflammatory pathways, including key cytokine pathways such as interleukin (IL)-2, 3, 5-10 and 23 signaling pathways and downregulation of anti-inflammatory pathways including IL-4 signaling. In the PBMC samples, six microbes were correlated with worse COVID-19 severity, and one microbe was correlated with improved COVID-19 severity. Collectively, our findings contribute to the understanding of the human microbiome and suggest interplay between our identified microbes and key inflammatory pathways which may be leveraged in the development of immune therapies for treating COVID-19 patients.

More than the Eye Can See: Shedding New Light on SARS-CoV-2 Lateral Flow Device-Based Immunoassays

Containing the global severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been an unprecedented challenge due to high horizontal transmissivity and asymptomatic carriage rates. Lateral flow device (LFD) immunoassays were introduced in late 2020 to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection in asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals rapidly. While LFD technologies have been used for over 60 years, their widespread use as a public health tool during a pandemic is unprecedented. By the end of 2020, data from studies into the efficacy of the LFDs emerged and showed these point-of-care devices to have very high specificity (ability to identify true negatives) but inadequate sensitivity with high false-negative rates. The low sensitivity (<50%) shown in several studies is a critical public health concern, as asymptomatic or presymptomatic carriers may wrongly be assumed to be noninfectious, posing a significant risk of further spread in the community. Here, we show that the direct visual readout of SARS-CoV-2 LFDs is an inadequate approach to discriminate a potentially infective viral concentration in a biosample. We quantified significant immobilized antigen-antibody-labeled conjugate complexes within the LFDs visually scored as negative using high-sensitivity synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging. Correlating quantitative X-ray fluorescence measurements and quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) determined numbers of viral copies, we identified that negatively scored samples could contain up to 100 PFU (equivalent here to ∼10 000 RNA copies/test). The study demonstrates where the shortcomings arise in many of the current direct-readout SARS-CoV-2 LFDs, namely, being a deficiency in the readout as opposed to the potential level of detection of the test, which is orders of magnitude higher. The present findings are of importance both to public health monitoring during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to the rapid refinement of these tools for immediate and future applications.

Reversion of Gut Microbiota during the Recovery Phase in Patients with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19: Longitudinal Study

Patients with COVID-19 have been reported to experience gastrointestinal symptoms as well as respiratory symptoms, but the effects of COVID-19 on the gut microbiota are poorly understood. We explored gut microbiome profiles associated with the respiratory infection of SARS-CoV-2 during the recovery phase in patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. A longitudinal analysis was performed using the same patients to determine whether the gut microbiota changed after recovery from COVID-19. We applied 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to analyze two paired fecal samples from 12 patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Fecal samples were selected at two time points: during SARS-CoV-2 infection (infected state) and after negative conversion of the viral RNA (recovered state). We also compared the microbiome data with those from 36 healthy controls. Microbial evenness of the recovered state was significantly increased compared with the infected state. SARS-CoV-2 infection induced the depletion of Bacteroidetes, while an abundance was observed with a tendency to rapidly reverse in the recovered state. The Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio in the infected state was markedly higher than that in the recovered state. Gut dysbiosis was observed after infection even in patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19, while the composition of the gut microbiota was recovered after negative conversion of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Modifying intestinal microbes in response to COVID-19 might be a useful therapeutic alternative.

Symptom and Age Homophilies in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Networks during the Early Phase of the Pandemic in Japan

Kanagawa and Hokkaido were affected by COVID-19 in the early stage of the pandemic. Japan's initial response included contact tracing and PCR analysis on anyone who was suspected of having been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. In this retrospective study, we analyzed publicly available COVID-19 registry data from Kanagawa and Hokkaido (n = 4392). Exponential random graph model (ERGM) network analysis was performed to examine demographic and symptomological homophilies. Age, symptomatic, and asymptomatic status homophilies were seen in both prefectures. Symptom homophilies suggest that nuanced genetic differences in the virus may affect its epithelial cell type range and can result in the diversity of symptoms seen in individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Environmental variables such as temperature and humidity may also play a role in the overall pathogenesis of the virus. A higher level of asymptomatic transmission was observed in Kanagawa. Moreover, patients who contracted the virus through secondary or tertiary contacts were shown to be asymptomatic more frequently than those who contracted it from primary cases. Additionally, most of the transmissions stopped at the primary and secondary levels. As expected, significant viral transmission was seen in healthcare settings.