Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US

Social and emotional loneliness among college students during the COVID-19 pandemic: The predictive role of coping behaviors, social support, and personal resilience

OBJECTIVE

To determine the influence of coping behaviors, resilience, and social support on students' emotional and social loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN AND METHODS

A cross-sectional research design was used to gather data from 303 college students from the Central Philippines using four standardized scales through an online survey.

FINDINGS

Loneliness among students was high during the coronavirus pandemic. Resilience, coping behaviors, and social support were identified as protective factors against loneliness.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Interventions directed toward increasing resilience, social support, and coping behaviors may help decrease emotional and social loneliness caused by the mandatory lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unequal Opportunity Spreaders: Higher COVID-19 Deaths with Later School Closure in the United States

Mixed evidence on the relationship between school closure and COVID-19 prevalence could reflect focus on large-scale levels of geography, limited ability to address endogeneity, and demographic variation. Using county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 data through June 15, 2020, two matching strategies address potential heterogeneity: nearest geographic neighbor and propensity scores. Within nearest neighboring pairs in different states with different school closure timing, each additional day from a county's first case until state-ordered school closure is related to 1.5 to 2.4 percent higher cumulative COVID-19 deaths per capita (1,227-1,972 deaths for a county with median population and deaths/capita). Results are consistent using propensity score matching, COVID-19 data from two alternative sources, and additional sensitivity analyses. School closure is more strongly related to COVID-19 deaths in counties with a high concentration of Black or poor residents, suggesting schools play an unequal role in transmission and earlier school closure is related to fewer lives lost in disadvantaged counties.

COVID-19 in children, adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional study in Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2020

OBJECTIVE

To analyze self-reported sociodemographic and clinical characteristics among individuals aged 2 to 22 years and possible associations with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

METHODS

This was a serial cross-sectional population-based study carried out from May to June 2020. The COVID-19 positivity rate was assessed by serological testing, and associated factors were assessed using Pearson's chi-square test (5% significance level).

RESULTS

Among 1,693 individuals aged 2 to 22 years, 6.1% tested positive for COVID-19 and, among these, 35.5% did not present any symptoms. Differences were identified between positive and negative cases regarding the number of symptoms (p-value=0.001).Coughing was reported by 40.4% of positive individuals. Only 14.3% sought health care, namely 29.8% among those who tested positive and 13.3% among those who tested negative (p-value=0.001).

CONCLUSION

The percentage of asymptomatic patients can impact the COVID-19 transmission chain in schools and fuel outbreaks of the disease in schools.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and COVID-19 Burden in the United States

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are mitigation strategies used to reduce the spread of transmissible diseases. The relative effectiveness of specific NPIs remains uncertain.

METHODS

We used state-level Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case and mortality data between January 19, 2020 and March 7, 2021 to model NPI policy effectiveness. Empirically derived breakpoints in case and mortality velocities were used to identify periods of stable, decreasing, or increasing COVID-19 burden. The associations between NPI adoption and subsequent decreases in case or death velocities were estimated using generalized linear models accounting for weekly variability shared across states. State-level NPI policies included: stay at home order, indoor public gathering ban (mild >10 or severe ≤10), indoor restaurant dining ban, and public mask mandate.

RESULTS

28,602,830 cases and 511,899 deaths were recorded. The odds of a decrease in COVID-19 case velocity were significantly elevated for stay at home (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.63-2.52), indoor dining ban (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.10), public mask mandate (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.47-3.23), and severe gathering ban (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.16). In mutually adjusted models, odds remained elevated for stay at home (AOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.04-2.07) and public mask mandate (AOR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.51-3.41). Stay at home (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.53-2.62; AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.25-2.87) was also associated with greater likelihood of decrease in death velocity in unadjusted and adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

NPIs employed in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic, most significantly stay at home orders, were associated with decreased COVID-19 burden.

Trends in Stress Throughout Pregnancy and Postpartum Period During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Study Using Ecological Momentary Assessment and Data From the Postpartum Mothers Mobile Study

BACKGROUND

Stress is associated with adverse birth and postpartum health outcomes. Few studies have longitudinally explored racial differences in maternal stress in a birthing population in the United States during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to do the following: (1) assess changes in reported stress before, during, and after initial emergency declarations (eg, stay-at-home orders) were in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and (2) assess Black-White differences in reported stress in a pregnant and postpartum population from Southwestern Pennsylvania.

METHODS

We leveraged data from the ongoing Postpartum Mothers Mobile Study (PMOMS), which surveys participants in real time throughout the pregnancy and postpartum periods via ecological momentary assessment (EMA) and smartphone technology. We analyzed data from a subset of PMOMS participants (n=85) who were either Black or White, and who submitted EMA responses regarding stress between November 1, 2019, and August 31, 2020, the time frame of this study. We divided data into four phases based on significant events during the COVID-19 pandemic: "pre" phase (baseline), "early" phase (first case of COVID-19 reported in United States), "during" phase (stay-at-home orders), and "post" phase (stay-at-home orders eased). We assessed mean stress levels at each phase using linear mixed-effects models and post hoc contrasts based on the models.

RESULTS

Overall mean stress (0=not at all to 4=a lot) during the pre phase was 0.8 for Black and White participants (range for Black participants: 0-3.9; range for White participants: 0-2.8). There was an increase of 0.3 points (t5649=5.2, P<.001) in the during phase as compared with the pre phase, and an increase of 0.2 points (t5649=3.1, P=.002) in the post phase compared with the pre phase (n=85). No difference was found between Black and White participants in the change in mean stress from the pre phase to the during phase (overall change predicted for the regression coefficient=-0.02, P=.87). There was a significant difference between Black and White participants in the change in mean stress from the during phase to the post phase (overall change predicted for the regression coefficient=0.4, P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There was an overall increase in mean stress levels in this subset of pregnant and postpartum participants during the same time as the emergency declarations/stay-at-home orders in the United States. Compared to baseline, mean stress levels remained elevated when stay-at-home orders eased. We found no significant difference in the mean stress levels by race. Given that stress is associated with adverse birth outcomes and postpartum health, stress induced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic may have adverse implications for birthing populations in the United States.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/13569.

Return-to-School Practices for Pediatric Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Recipients during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Although organizations such as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and American Academy of Pediatrics have published guidelines favoring the resumption of in-person schooling during the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, there is no specific guidance on hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) recipients' safe return to school. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of pediatric HCT physician members of the Pediatric Transplantation and Cellular Therapy Consortium practicing in the United States to describe current return-to-school practices during the COVID-19 pandemic for HCT recipients. A total of 122 respondents (response rate, 30.6%) from 60 transplant centers in 32 US states completed the survey. Most of the respondents (76%) recommended that HCT recipients consider a remote or hybrid school option at this time if possible. If not possible, the respondents recommended a return to in-person school if the patient is at least 12 months post-transplantation or off immune suppression, while taking school safety measures and local COVID-19 cases into account. These results provide valuable guidance for the HCT community, patients, and caregivers on important topics to consider while making return-to-school decisions.

COVID-19-associated school closures and related efforts to sustain education and subsidized meal programs, United States, February 18-June 30, 2020

Pre-emptive school closures are frontline community mitigation measures recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for implementation during severe pandemics. This study describes the spatiotemporal patterns of publicly announced school closures implemented in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and assesses how public K-12 districts adjusted their methods of education delivery and provision of subsidized meals. During February 18–June 30, 2020, we used daily systematic media searches to identify publicly announced COVID-19–related school closures lasting ≥1 day in the United States (US). We also collected statewide school closure policies from state government websites. Data on distance learning and subsidized meal programs were collected from a stratified sample of 600 school districts. The first COVID-19–associated school closure occurred on February 27, 2020 in Washington state. By March 30, 2020, all but one US public school districts were closed, representing the first-ever nearly synchronous nationwide closure of public K-12 schools in the US. Approximately 100,000 public schools were closed for ≥8 weeks because of COVID-19, affecting >50 million K-12 students. Of 600 districts sampled, the vast majority offered distance learning (91.0%) and continued provision of subsidized meal programs (78.8%) during the closures. Despite the sudden and prolonged nature of COVID-19–associated school closures, schools demonstrated flexibility by implementing distance learning and alternate methods to continue subsidized meal programs.

Screening plans for SARS-CoV-2 based on sampling and rotation: An example in a European school setting

Screening plans for prevention and containment of SARS-CoV-2 infection should take into account the epidemic context, the fact that undetected infected individuals may transmit the disease and that the infection spreads through outbreaks, creating clusters in the population. In this paper, we compare through simulations the performance of six screening plans based on poorly sensitive individual tests, in detecting infection outbreaks at the level of single classes in a typical European school context. The performance evaluation is done by simulating different epidemic dynamics within the class during the four weeks following the day of the initial infection. The plans have different costs in terms of number of individual tests required for the screening and are based on recurrent evaluations on all students or subgroups of students in rotation. Especially in scenarios where the rate of contagion is high, at an equal cost, testing half of the class in rotation every week appears to be better in terms of sensitivity than testing all students every two weeks. Similarly, testing one-fourth of the students every week is comparable with testing all students every two weeks, despite the first one is a much cheaper strategy. In conclusion, we show that in the presence of natural clusters in the population, testing subgroups of individuals belonging to the same cluster in rotation may have a better performance than testing all the individuals less frequently. The proposed simulations approach can be extended to evaluate more complex screening plans than those presented in the paper.

Understanding Psychological Distress and Protective Factors Amongst Older Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the emotional distress and loneliness during COVID-19 and the roles of resiliency and activities.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional national survey.

SETTING

Amazon Mechanical Turk (mTurk) and Prolific Research Platforms.

PARTICIPANTS

Five hundred and one U.S. dwelling English-speaking adults 60 years old and older.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants completed an online survey with the PHQ-9; GAD-7; Short Health Anxiety Inventory; 3-item UCLA Loneliness scale; PROMIS measures of global health, instrumental, and emotional support; 10-item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale; and COVID-19 needs assessment.

RESULTS

Across the sample 13% reported moderate depressive symptoms, 9% reported moderate anxiety symptoms, and 26% endorsed being "lonely." The emotionally distressed group endorsed more loneliness, lower resiliency, less physical exercise, and worse physical health. The low Socio-Economic Status group endorsed less loneliness, less likely to engage in physical exercise and worse physical health.The lonely group endorsed less resilience, less physical exercise, and worse physical health. A multiple logistic regression found that resilience, socioeconomic status, and physical health were significant predictors of loneliness, whereas global health was the best predictor of emotional distress.

CONCLUSIONS

Even after prolonged social distancing, older adults in this study did not report greater psychological distress compared to earlier studies of older adults during COVID-19. Older adults with lower SES, worse physical health, and less resiliency, were more likely to report more loneliness. It is this group that should be the focus of intervention.

Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties

IMPORTANCE

Mass incarceration is known to foster infectious disease outbreaks, amplification of infectious diseases in surrounding communities, and exacerbation of health disparities in disproportionately policed communities. To date, however, policy interventions intended to achieve epidemic mitigation in US communities have neglected to account for decarceration as a possible means of protecting public health and safety.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of jail decarceration and government anticontagion policies with reductions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used county-level data from January to November 2020 to analyze COVID-19 cases, jail populations, and anticontagion policies in a panel regression model to estimate the association of jail decarceration and anticontagion policies with COVID-19 growth rates. A total of 1605 counties with data available on both jail population and COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. This sample represents approximately 51% of US counties, 72% of the US population, and 60% of the US jail population.

EXPOSURES

Changes to jail populations and implementation of 10 anticontagion policies: nursing home visitation bans, school closures, mask mandates, prison visitation bans, stay-at-home orders, and closure of nonessential businesses, gyms, bars, movie theaters, and restaurants.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Daily COVID-19 case growth rates.

RESULTS

In the 1605 counties included in this study, the mean (SD) prison population was 283.38 (657.78) individuals, and the mean (SD) population was 315.24 (2151.01) persons per square mile. An estimated 80% reduction in US jail populations, achievable through noncarceral management of nonviolent alleged offenses and in line with average international incarceration rates, would have been associated with a 2.0% (95% CI, 0.8%-3.1%) reduction in daily COVID-19 case growth rates. Jail decarceration was associated with 8 times larger reductions in COVID-19 growth rates in counties with above-median population density (4.6%; 95% CI, 2.2%- 7.1%) relative to those below this median (0.5%; 95% CI, 0.1%-0.9%). Nursing home visitation bans were associated with a 7.3% (95% CI, 5.8%-8.9%) reduction in COVID-19 case growth rates, followed by school closures (4.3%; 95% CI, 2.0%-6.6%), mask mandates (2.5%; 95% CI, 1.7%-3.3%), prison visitation bans (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.2%-2.2%), and stay-at-home orders (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Although many studies have documented that high incarceration rates are associated with communitywide health harms, this study is, to date, the first to show that decarceration is associated with population-level public health benefits. Its findings suggest that, among other anticontagion interventions, large-scale decarceration and changes to pretrial detention policies are likely to be important for improving US public health, biosecurity, and pandemic preparedness.

Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been more and less effective in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of published and unpublished empirical studies, either observational or interventional, analysing the comparative effectiveness of NPIs against the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched Embase/Medline and medRxiv to identify the relevant literature.

RESULTS

We identified 34 studies. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, school closing was the most effective NPI, followed by workplace closing, business and venue closing and public event bans. Public information campaigns and mask wearing requirements were also effective in controlling the pandemic while being less disruptive for the population than other NPIs. There was no evidence on the effectiveness of public transport closure, testing and contact tracing strategies and quarantining or isolation of individuals. Early implementation was associated with a higher effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths, while general stringency of the NPIs was not.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review, we found that school closing, followed by workplace closing, business and venue closing and public event bans were the most effective NPIs in controlling the spread of COVID-19. An early response and a combination of specific social distancing measures are effective at reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths. Continuous monitoring of NPIs effectiveness is needed in order to adapt decision making.

Selection of determinants of students' adherence to COVID-19 guidelines and translation into a brief intervention

Background

When reopening universities in times of COVID-19, students still have to adhere to COVID-19 behavioral guidelines. We explored what behavioral determinants (and underlying beliefs) related to the adherence to guidelines are both relevant and changeable, as input for future interventions.

Methods

A cross-sectional online survey was conducted (Oct–Nov 2020), identifying behavioral determinants (and underlying beliefs) of university students' adherence to COVID-19-guidelines, including keeping 1.5 m distance, getting tested, and isolating (N = 255).

Results

Attitude, perceived norm, self-efficacy, and several beliefs (e.g., risk perception beliefs ‘I am not afraid because I am young’ [r = −0.33; p < .001]; attitudinal beliefs, e.g., ‘I feel responsible for telling people to adhere to guidelines’ [r = 0.37; p < .001]; self-efficacy beliefs, e.g., ‘COVID-19-prevention guidelines are difficult to adhere to’ [r = −0.30; p < .001]) were associated with intention to adhere to guidelines, and for those beliefs there was room for improvement, making them suitable as possible intervention targets.

Conclusions

Students mostly adhere to COVID-19 guidelines, but there is room for improvement. Interventions need to enhance students' adherence behavior by targeting the most relevant determinants as identified in this study. Based on these findings, a small intervention was introduced targeting the determinants of students' adherence to guidelines.

[COVID-19: Critical appraisal of the evidence]

We present the summary of a critical appraisal document of the available evidence on COVID-19, developed with a clinical practice guide format following GRADE methodology. The document tries to provide answers to a series of structured clinical questions, with an explicit definition of the population, intervention/exposure, comparison and outcome, and a rating of the clinical relevance of the outcome measures. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to answer the questions, grouped into six chapters: epidemiology, clinical practice, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and vaccination. We assessed the risk of bias of the selected studies with standard instruments (RoB-2, ROBINS-I, QUADAS and Newcastle-Ottawa). We constructed evidence tables and, when necessary and possible, meta-analysis of the of the most relevant outcome measures. We followed the GRADE system to synthesize the evidence, assessing its quality, and, when appropriate, giving recommendations, rated according to the quality of the evidence, the values and preferences, the balance between benefits, risks and costs, equity and feasibility.

COVID-19: Critical appraisal of the evidence

We present the summary of a critical appraisal document of the available evidence on COVID-19, developed with a clinical practice guide format following GRADE methodology. The document tries to provide answers to a series of structured clinical questions, with an explicit definition of the population, intervention / exposure, comparison and outcome, and a rating of the clinical relevance of the outcome measures. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to answer the questions, grouped into six chapters: epidemiology, clinical practice, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and vaccination. We assessed the risk of bias of the selected studies with standard instruments (RoB-2, ROBINS-I, QUADAS and Newcastle-Ottawa). We constructed evidence tables and, when necessary and possible, meta-analysis of the of the most relevant outcome measures. We followed the GRADE system to synthesise the evidence, assessing its quality, and, when appropriate, giving recommendations, rated according to the quality of the evidence, the values and preferences, the balance between benefits, risks and costs, equity and feasibility.

Impact of nonpharmacological COVID-19 interventions in hospitalizations for childhood pneumonia in Brazil

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The knowledge about the impact of the nonpharmacological measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic can give insight into ways in which they can also be applied for other respiratory diseases. To assess the impact of containment measures of the COVID-19 pandemic on pneumonia hospitalizations in children from 0 to 14 years of age in Brazil.

METHODS

Data from hospital admissions for pneumonia were obtained from the Department of Informatics of Brazilian Public Health System database in the period of 2015-2020 and analyzed by macroregions and age groups. To evaluate the effect of containment measures, on the incidence of pneumonia, the absolute reduction and relative reduction were calculated by analyzing the subsets 2015-2019 vs. 2020.

RESULTS

Comparing the subsets of April-August 2015-2019 vs. April-August 2020 for Brazil (total), there was an significant reduction in the average incidence of hospitalizations, with numbers ranging from -82% [IRR 0.17 (0.14-0.21)] for <4 years (prepandemic 741.8/100,000 vs. pandemic 132.7/100.000), -83% [IRR 0.17 (0.10-0.27)] for 5-9 years (prepandemic 113.6/100,000 vs. pandemic 19.6/100.000), -77% [IRR 0.23 (0.11-0.46)] for 10-14 (prepandemic 42.0/100,000 vs. pandemic 9.8/100.000) and -82% [IRR 0.18 (0.15-0.21)] for all children ≤14 years (prepandemic 897.4/100,000 vs. pandemic 162.1/100.000).

CONCLUSION

We found a significant decrease in cases of all cause pneumonia in children under 14 years and especially in the age group <9 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be associated with the nonpharmacological measures applied to control the SARS-CoV-2.

Effect of Fall 2020 K-12 instruction types on COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths in Illinois counties

Background

One of the most difficult public policy decisions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has been about how to offer K-12 instruction. We sought to determine whether differences in instruction types at the beginning of the 2020-2021 school year were related to differences in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Illinois counties during the first 3 weeks of the school year.

Methods

We divided Illinois counties into 3 groups based on the instruction type used for a majority of K-12 students at the start of the school year: in-person, hybrid, or online-only. We used synthetic control analysis to match counties between the 3 groups.

Results

Both majority hybrid and majority online-only counties had significantly fewer new cases than majority in-person counties. There were no significant differences in new cases between majority hybrid counties and majority online-only counties or in new hospital admissions or deaths between any of the 3 county groups.

Conclusions

This paper adds to the growing scientific consensus that at least some forms of in-person K-12 instruction have not contributed significantly to the spread of the pandemic. However, our results suggest that there may be an important difference between fully in-person instruction and hybrid instruction.

COVID-19 incidence, hospitalizations and mortality trends in Croatia and school closures

Objectives

COVID-19 pandemic affected majority of students worldwide because school closures were one of the first and frequently taken measures in tackling epidemic. This study analyzed trends in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality from the beginning of pandemic in Croatia, in relation to schools opening and closing.

Study design

Retrospective data review.

Methods

Data on COVID-19 positive patients in Croatia from week 9 of 2020 to week 10 of 2021 in Croatia were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Analysis also included hospitalizations and mortality trends for age groups 26 to 65 and 66+ from week 30 of 2020.

Results

Schools opened in fall after the summer holidays in week 37. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a statistically significant increase in cumulative incidence rates of COVID-19 in all age groups until 50th week, except in the 19–25 age group which saw an increase until 49th week. During the period of increase, there were periods of moderate increases and rapid increases in incidence that were present between 39/41 week and 43/44 week in all age groups except in those 0–6 years [from 40th till 43rd week in age groups 7–14 and 15–18, average percentage change (APC) = 87.41, P = 0.035, and APC = 83.47, P = 0.013; from 39th till 43rd in 19–25, APC = 91.90, P = 0.002; from 40th till 44th in 26–65, APC = 74.79, P < 0.001; from 41st till 44th in 66+, APC = 81.95, P = 0.004]. Steeper increase in hospitalizations was seen in 40th week for age groups 26 to 65 (40th to 45th week APC = 34.67, P < 0.001) and 66+ (40th to 45th week APC = 38.76, P < 0.001). Steeper increase in mortality started in 41st week for both age groups 26 to 65 and 66+ (41st to 46th week APC = 59.59, P < 0.001 and 41st to 45th week APC = 70.28, P < 0.001). Schools were closed for winter holidays in week 51. A steep decrease occurred in week 50 for cases and in week 51 for mortality and hospitalizations. There was no significant increase in hospitalizations and mortality after schools were re-opened in week 03 of 2021 (primary schools) and week 07 (secondary schools).

Conclusion

COVID-19 morbidity and mortality trends in Croatia observed in fall 2020 in Croatia perhaps cannot completely exclude potential association of school opening in all age groups. However, in winter 2021 effect was completely lacking and numbers were independent of schools’ dynamics. The observed inconsistent pattern indicates that there were no association of school openings and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality trends in Croatia and that other factors were leading to increasing and decreasing numbers. This emphasizes the need to consider the introduction of other effective and less harmful measures by stakeholders, or at least to use school closures as a last resort.

Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and began reopening in August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In states where in-person instruction resumed at that time, two major unknowns were the capacity at which schools would operate, which depended on the proportion of families opting for remote instruction, and adherence to face-mask requirements in schools, which depended on cooperation from students and enforcement by schools. To determine the impact of these conditions on the statewide burden of COVID-19 in Indiana, we used an agent-based model calibrated to and validated against multiple data types. Using this model, we quantified the burden of COVID-19 on K-12 students, teachers, their families, and the general population under alternative scenarios spanning three levels of school operating capacity (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %) and three levels of face-mask adherence in schools (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %). Under a scenario in which schools operated remotely, we projected 45,579 (95 % CrI: 14,109–132,546) infections and 790 (95 % CrI: 176–1680) deaths statewide between August 24 and December 31. Reopening at 100 % capacity with 50 % face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 42.9 (95 % CrI: 41.3–44.3) and 9.2 (95 % CrI: 8.9–9.5) times that number of infections and deaths, respectively. In contrast, our results showed that at 50 % capacity with 100 % face-mask adherence, the number of infections and deaths were 22 % (95 % CrI: 16 %–28 %) and 11 % (95 % CrI: 5 %–18 %) higher than the scenario in which schools operated remotely. Within this range of possibilities, we found that high levels of school operating capacity (80–95 %) and intermediate levels of face-mask adherence (40–70 %) resulted in model behavior most consistent with observed data. Together, these results underscore the importance of precautions taken in schools for the benefit of their communities.

Do school closures and school reopenings affect community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies

OBJECTIVES

To systematically reivew the observational evidence of the effect of school closures and school reopenings on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission.

SETTING

Schools (including early years settings, primary schools and secondary schools).

INTERVENTION

School closures and reopenings.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (including any measure of community infections rate, hospital admissions or mortality attributed to COVID-19).

METHODS

On 7 January 2021, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, the WHO Global COVID-19 Research Database, ERIC, the British Education Index, the Australian Education Index and Google, searching title and abstracts for terms related to SARS-CoV-2 AND terms related to schools or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool to evaluate bias.

RESULTS

We identified 7474 articles, of which 40 were included, with data from 150 countries. Of these, 32 studies assessed school closures and 11 examined reopenings. There was substantial heterogeneity between school closure studies, with half of the studies at lower risk of bias reporting reduced community transmission by up to 60% and half reporting null findings. The majority (n=3 out of 4) of school reopening studies at lower risk of bias reported no associated increases in transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

School closure studies were at risk of confounding and collinearity from other non-pharmacological interventions implemented around the same time as school closures, and the effectiveness of closures remains uncertain. School reopenings, in areas of low transmission and with appropriate mitigation measures, were generally not accompanied by increasing community transmission. With such varied evidence on effectiveness, and the harmful effects, policymakers should take a measured approach before implementing school closures; and should look to reopen schools in times of low transmission, with appropriate mitigation measures.

Challenges for Child Mental Health Raised by School Closure and Home Confinement During the COVID-19 Pandemic

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The closure of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the education of children worldwide. This paper reviews the psychological effects of this action on children and the impact on school-based services.

RECENT FINDINGS

Emerging epidemiologic findings have generated an intense debate about the need for, and potential benefit of, school closure in the context of COVID-19. International research reveals reactions in children that are not typically considered in the disaster literature as well as those that arise in other disasters. School closure also has curtailed the delivery of mental health services commonly offered in schools. The debate about school closure will likely persist depending on local disease conditions and school readiness. Moreover, school closure is a possibility in future epidemics and pandemics and other disasters. The benefit of school closure must be balanced against the risk to children's education and psychosocial development.

Acute kidney injury, a common and severe complication in hospitalized patients during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the main clinical sign of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), but little is known about the outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) associated with ARF.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study on clinical features of adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between March 1st and April 30th, 2020 in the district of Piacenza (Italy).

RESULTS

Among 1894 hospitalized patients, 1701 affected by COVID-19 underwent at least two serum creatinine evaluations. According to KDIGO definitions, 233 of 1,701 patients (13.7%) developed AKI: 159, 34, and 40 had stage 1, 2 and 3 AKI, respectively. Patients with AKI were older (mean age 73.5 ± 14 years, range 24-95) than those without AKI (72 ± 14 years, range 20-102). In-hospital mortality was high in COVID patients (567/1701 patients, 33%), which almost doubled among AKI patients (132/233 patients, 57%), compared with those without AKI (p < 0.01). Risk factors for AKI included older age, male gender, diabetes and need for ventilation. Fourteen patients with stage 3 AKI underwent renal replacement therapy (RRT).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalized COVID-19 patients with AKI associated with ARF have poor chances of survival. Diagnosing and preventing the progression of renal damage is fundamental in order to delay initiating RRT, especially when resources are limited.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in school settings during the second COVID-19 wave: a cross-sectional study, Berlin, Germany, November 2020

BackgroundSchool attendance during the COVID-19 pandemic is intensely debated.AimIn November 2020, we assessed SARS-CoV-2 infections and seroreactivity in 24 randomly selected school classes and connected households in Berlin, Germany.MethodsWe collected oro-nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples, examining SARS-CoV-2 infection and IgG antibodies by RT-PCR and ELISA. Household members self-swabbed. We assessed individual and institutional prevention measures. Classes with SARS-CoV-2 infection and connected households were retested after 1 week.ResultsWe examined 1,119 participants, including 177 primary and 175 secondary school students, 142 staff and 625 household members. SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in eight classes, affecting each 1-2 individuals. Infection prevalence was 2.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-5.0; 9/338), 1.4% (95% CI: 0.2-5.1; 2/140), and 2.3% (95% CI: 1.3-3.8; 14/611) among students, staff and household members. Six of nine infected students were asymptomatic at testing. We detected IgG antibodies in 2.0% (95%CI: 0.8-4.1; 7/347), 1.4% (95% CI: 0.2-5.0; 2/141) and 1.4% (95% CI: 0.6-2.7; 8/576). Prevalence increased with inconsistent facemask-use in school, walking to school, and case-contacts outside school. For three of nine households with infection(s), origin in school seemed possible. After 1 week, no school-related secondary infections appeared in affected classes; the attack rate in connected households was 1.1%.ConclusionSchool attendance under rigorously implemented preventive measures seems reasonable. Balancing risks and benefits of school closures need to consider possible spill-over infection into households. Deeper insight is required into the infection risks due to being a schoolchild vs attending school.

Factors associated with clinical severity in emergency department patients presenting with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

OBJECTIVE

To measure the association of race, ethnicity, comorbidities, and insurance status with need for hospitalization of symptomatic emergency department patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

METHODS

This study is a cohort study of symptomatic patients presenting to a single emergency department (ED) with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 7-August 9, 2020. We collected patient-level information regarding demographics, insurance status, comorbidities, level of care, and mortality using a structured chart review. We compared characteristics of patients categorized by (1) home discharge, (2) general hospital ward admission, and (3) intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death within 30 days of the index visit. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to report odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) between hospital admission versus ED discharge home and between ICU care versus general hospital ward admission.

RESULTS

In total, 994 patients who presented to the ED with symptoms were included in the analysis with 551 (55.4%) patients discharged home, 314 (31.6%) patients admitted to the general hospital ward, and 129 (13.0%) admitted to the ICU or dying. Patients requiring admission were more likely to be Black or to have public insurance (Medicaid and/or Medicare). Patients who were admitted to the ICU or dying were more likely aged ≥ 65 years or male. In multivariable logistic regression, old age, public insurance, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, heart failure, and hyperlipidemia were independent predictors of hospital admission. When comparing those who needed ICU care versus general hospital ward admission in univariate logistic regression, patients with Medicaid (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.6), Medicare (OR 4.2, 95% CI 2.1-8.4), Medicaid and Medicare (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.4-7.7), history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-4.2), hypertension (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.7), and heart failure (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.7) were more likely to be admitted into the ICU or die; Black (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.4-2.9) and Hispanic/Latino (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.6-1.8) patients were less likely to be admitted into the ICU; however, the associations were not statistically significant. In multivariable logistic regression, old age, male sex, public insurance, and heart failure were independent predictors of ICU care/death.

CONCLUSION

Comorbidities and public insurance are predictors of more severe illness for patients with SARS-CoV-2. This study suggests that the disparities in severity seen in COVID-19 among Black patients may be attributable, in part, to low socioeconomic status and chronic health conditions.

Passing the Test: A Model-Based Analysis of Safe School-Reopening Strategies

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced historic educational disruptions. In April 2021, about 40% of U.S. public school students were not offered full-time in-person education.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools.

DESIGN

An agent-based network model was developed to simulate transmission in elementary and high school communities, including home, school, and interhousehold interactions.

SETTING

School structure was parametrized to reflect average U.S. classrooms, with elementary schools of 638 students and high schools of 1451 students. Daily local incidence was varied from 1 to 100 cases per 100 000 persons.

PARTICIPANTS

Students, faculty, staff, and adult household members.

INTERVENTION

Isolation of symptomatic individuals, quarantine of an infected individual's contacts, reduced class sizes, alternative schedules, staff vaccination, and weekly asymptomatic screening.

MEASUREMENTS

Transmission was projected among students, staff, and families after a single infection in school and over an 8-week quarter, contingent on local incidence.

RESULTS

School transmission varies according to student age and local incidence and is substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Nevertheless, when transmission occurs, it may be difficult to detect without regular testing because of the subclinical nature of most children's infections. Teacher vaccination can reduce transmission to staff, and asymptomatic screening improves understanding of local circumstances and reduces transmission.

LIMITATION

Uncertainty exists about the susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and precision is low regarding the effectiveness of specific countermeasures, particularly with new variants.

CONCLUSION

With controlled community transmission and moderate mitigation, elementary schools can open safety, but high schools require more intensive mitigation. Asymptomatic screening can facilitate reopening at higher local incidence while minimizing transmission risk.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and Facebook.

School closures were over-weighted against the mitigation of COVID-19 transmission: A literature review on the impact of school closures in the United States

BACKGROUND

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread wildly across the world. In March of 2020, almost all kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) schools were closed in the United States in an urgent attempt to curb the pandemic in the absence of effective therapeutics or vaccination. Thirteen months since then, schools remain partially closed. Accumulated evidence suggests that children and adolescents are not the primary facilitators of transmission, limiting the restrictive effects of school closures on disease transmission. The negative effects of school closures on K-12 students need to be systematically reviewed.

METHODS

Following the guideline of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyzes, a comprehensive literature search from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Web of Science regarding school closures and its impact on K-12 students was conducted. The primary outcomes included the impact of school closures on the mitigation of the pandemic and the resulting public health concerns of K-12 students.

RESULTS

Prolonged school closures possessed negative effects on K-12 students' physical, mental, and social well-being and reduced the number of health and social workers, hindering the reopening of the country.

CONCLUSIONS

School closures were over-weighted against the mitigation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. A safe reopening of all K-12 schools in the United States should be of top priority.

Onset of effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 infection rates in 176 countries

BACKGROUND

During the initial phase of the global COVID-19 outbreak, most countries responded with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study we investigate the general effectiveness of these NPIs, how long different NPIs need to be in place to take effect, and how long they should be in place for their maximum effect to unfold.

METHODS

We used global data and a non-parametric machine learning model to estimate the effects of NPIs in relation to how long they have been in place. We applied a random forest model and used accumulated local effect (ALE) plots to derive estimates of the effectiveness of single NPIs in relation to their implementation date. In addition, we used bootstrap samples to investigate the variability in these ALE plots.

RESULTS

Our results show that closure and regulation of schools was the most important NPI, associated with a pronounced effect about 10 days after implementation. Restrictions of mass gatherings and restrictions and regulations of businesses were found to have a more gradual effect, and social distancing was associated with a delayed effect starting about 18 days after implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results can inform political decisions regarding the choice of NPIs and how long they need to be in place to take effect.

Study Designs to Assess Real-World Interventions to Prevent COVID-19

Background: In the face of the novel virus SARS-CoV-2, scientists and the public are eager for evidence about what measures are effective at slowing its spread and preventing morbidity and mortality. Other than mathematical modeling, studies thus far evaluating public health and behavioral interventions at scale have largely been observational and ecologic, focusing on aggregate summaries. Conclusions from these studies are susceptible to bias from threats to validity such as unmeasured confounding, concurrent policy changes, and trends over time. We offer recommendations on how to strengthen frequently applied study designs which have been used to understand the impact of interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19, and suggest implementation-focused, pragmatic designs that, moving forward, could be used to build a robust evidence base for public health practice. Methods: We conducted a literature search of studies that evaluated the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and policies to reduce spread, morbidity, and mortality of COVID-19. Our targeted review of the literature aimed to explore strengths and weaknesses of implemented studies, provide recommendations for improvement, and explore alternative real-world study design methods to enhance evidence-based decision-making. Results:Study designs such as pre/post, interrupted time series, and difference-in-differences have been used to evaluate policy effects at the state or country level of a range of interventions, such as shelter-in-place, face mask mandates, and school closures. Key challenges with these designs include the difficulty of disentangling the effects of contemporaneous changes in policy and correctly modeling infectious disease dynamics. Pragmatic study designs such as the SMART (Sequential, Multiple-Assignment Randomized Trial), stepped wedge, and preference designs could be used to evaluate community re-openings such as schools, and other policy changes. Conclusions: As the epidemic progresses, we need to move from post-hoc analyses of available data (appropriate for the beginning of the pandemic) to proactive evaluation to ensure the most rigorous approaches possible to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 prevention interventions. Pragmatic study designs, while requiring initial planning and community buy-in, could offer more robust evidence on what is effective and for whom to combat the global pandemic we face and future policy decisions.

Evaluating Effectiveness of Public Health Intervention Strategies for Mitigating COVID-19 Pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance closure (lockdown), stay-at-home order, mandatory facial mask in public in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the effectiveness of these NPIs, we propose a nested case-control design with propensity score weighting under the quasi-experiment framework to estimate the average intervention effect on disease transmission across states. We further develop a method to test for factors that moderate intervention effect to assist precision public health intervention. Our method takes account of the underlying dynamics of disease transmission and balance state-level pre-intervention characteristics. We prove that our estimator provides causal intervention effect under assumptions. We apply this method to analyze US COVID-19 incidence cases to estimate the effects of six interventions. We show that lockdown has the largest effect on reducing transmission and reopening bars significantly increase transmission. States with a higher percentage of non-white population are at greater risk of increased $R_t$ associated with reopening bars.

Risk of infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among children and adolescents in households, communities and educational settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty with respect to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in children (0-19 years) with controversy on effectiveness of school-closures in controlling the pandemic. It is of equal importance to evaluate the risk of transmission in children who are often asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers that may incidentally transmit SARS-CoV-2 in different settings. We conducted this review to assess transmission and risks for SARS-CoV-2 in children (by age-groups or grades) in community and educational-settings compared to adults.

METHODS

Data for the review were retrieved from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, WHO COVID-19 Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) Database, WanFang Database, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Google Scholar, and preprints from medRixv and bioRixv) covering a timeline from December 1, 2019 to April 1, 2021. Population-screening, contact-tracing and cohort studies reporting prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in children were included. Data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3.

RESULTS

Ninety studies were included. Compared to adults, children showed comparable national (risk ratio (RR) = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-1.060 and subnational (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01) prevalence in population-screening studies, and lower odds of infection in community/household contact-tracing studies (odds ratio (OR) = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.46-0.84). On disaggregation, adolescents observed comparable risk (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.74-2.04) with adults. In educational-settings, children attending daycare/preschools (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.38-0.72) were observed to be at lower-risk when compared to adults, with odds of infection among primary (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.55-1.31) and high-schoolers (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.71-2.38) comparable to adults. Overall, children and adolescents had lower odds of infection in educational-settings compared to community and household clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Children (<10 years) showed lower susceptibility to COVID-19 compared to adults, whereas adolescents in communities and high-schoolers had comparable risk. Risks of infection among children in educational-settings was lower than in communities. Evidence from school-based studies demonstrate it is largely safe for children (<10 years) to be at schools, however older children (10-19 years) might facilitate transmission. Despite this evidence, studies focusing on the effectiveness of mitigation measures in educational settings are urgently needed to support both public health and educational policy-making for school reopening.

The Impact of School Opening Model on SARS-CoV-2 Community Incidence and Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study

The role that in-person schooling contributes to community incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths remains unknown. We conducted an event study evaluating the effect of in-person school on SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths per 100,000 persons during the 12-weeks following school opening, stratified by US Census region. There was no impact of in-person school opening and COVID-19 deaths. In most regions, COVID-19 incidence rates were not statistically different in counties with in-person versus remote school modes. However, in the South, there was a significant and sustained increase in cases per week among counties that opened for in-person learning versus remote learning, with weekly effects ranging from 7.8 (95% CI: 1.2-14.5) to 18.9 (95% CI: 7.9-29.9) additional cases per 100,000, driven by increases among 0-9 year olds and adults.

Warp Speed for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccines: Why Are Children Stuck in Neutral?

While adult clinical trials of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have moved quickly into phase 3 clinical trials, clinical trials have not started in children in the United States. The direct COVID-19 impact upon children is greater than that observed for a number of other pathogens for which we now have effective pediatric vaccines. Additionally, the role of children in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has clearly been underappreciated. Carefully conducted phase 2 clinical trials can adequately address potential COVID-19 vaccine safety concerns. Delaying phase 2 vaccine clinical trials in children will delay our recovery from COVID-19 and unnecessarily prolong its impact upon children's education, health, and emotional well-being, and equitable access to opportunities for development and social success. Given the potential direct and indirect benefits of pediatric vaccination, implementation of phase 2 clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines should begin now.

Impact of school reopening on pandemic spread: A case study using an agent-based model for COVID-19

This article examines the impact of partial/full reopening of school/college campuses on the spread of a pandemic using COVID-19 as a case study. The study uses an agent-based simulation model that replicates community spread in an urban region of U.S.A. via daily social mixing of susceptible and infected individuals. Data representing population demographics, SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, and social interventions guides the model's behavior, which is calibrated and validated using data reported by the government. The model indicates a modest but significant increase (8.15%) in the total number of reported cases in the region for a complete (100%) reopening compared to keeping schools and colleges fully virtual. For partial returns of 75% and 50%, the percent increases in the number of reported cases are shown to be small (2.87% and 1.26%, respectively) and statistically insignificant. The AB model also predicts that relaxing the stringency of the school safety protocol for sanitizing, use of mask, social distancing, testing, and quarantining and thus allowing the school transmission coefficient to double may result in a small increase in the number of reported infected cases (2.14%). Hence for pandemic outbreaks from viruses with similar characteristics as for SARS-CoV-2, keeping the schools and colleges open with a modest campus safety protocol and in-person attendance below a certain threshold may be advisable.

The triumvirate: why hypertension, obesity, and diabetes are risk factors for adverse effects in patients with COVID-19

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become a pandemic. The cellular receptor for SARS-CoV-2 entry is the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, a membrane-bound homolog of angiotensin-converting enzyme. Henceforth, this has brought the attention of the scientific community to study the interaction between COVID-19 and the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), as well as RAS inhibitors. However, these inhibitors are commonly used to treat hypertension, chronic kidney disorder, and diabetes. Obesity is a known risk factor for heart disease, diabetes, and hypertension, whereas diabetes and hypertension may be indirectly related to each other through the effects of obesity. Furthermore, people with hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and other related complications like cardiovascular and kidney diseases have a higher risk of severe COVID-19 infection than the general population and usually exhibit poor prognosis. This severity could be due to systemic inflammation and compromised immune response and RAS associated with these comorbid conditions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop evidence-based treatment methods that do not affect the severity of COVID-19 infection and effectively manage these chronic diseases in people with COVID-19.

The Patterns and Predictors of Loneliness for the Chinese Medical Students Since Post-Lockdown to New Normal With COVID-19

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related quarantine has had unique psychological challenges for medical students, particularly loneliness. In this study, we demonstrated the patterns and predictors of loneliness in medical students since post-lockdown to new normal with COVID-19.

Methods: A convenience sampling method was used in this study. Face-to-face online questionnaires of UCLA Loneliness Scale and psychological characteristics scales were completed by 1,478 participants. Latent profile analysis and multinominal logistic regressions were performed.

Results: Three latent profile models were identified in this study: low loneliness (52.3%), interpersonal sensitivity loneliness (3.5%), and high loneliness (44.1%). Sophomore (Est = 1.937; p < 0.05) and junior students (Est = 2.939; p < 0.05), neuroticism (Est = 2.475; p < 0.05), high arousal symptoms (Est = 2.618; p < 0.01), and the quality of support from friends (Est = 2.264; p < 0.05) were the risk factors for high loneliness profile. In addition, sophomore (Est = 2.065; p < 0.05) and junior students (Est = 2.702; p < 0.01), openness (Est = 2.303; p < 0.05), and conscientiousness personality (Est = −2.348; p < 0.05) were the predictors of an interpersonal sensitive loneliness profile. Good peer relationship (Est = −2.266; p < 0.05) and other support (Est = −2.247; p < 0.05) were protective factors for low loneliness profile.

Limitations: Participants were selected from one medical university; the generalizability is limited.

Conclusions: Timely loneliness-focused interventions should be targeted on the different profiles and predictors of loneliness in medical students.

Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020

BACKGROUND

Social distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease.

METHODS

We obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google. We used a pre-post comparison and two linear mixed-effects models to first assess the relationship between implementation of national policies and observed changes in mobility, and then to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID-19 infections in subsequent weeks.

RESULTS

Compared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%). The largest declines in mobility were associated with mandatory stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures, and non-mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: -23.7% to -9.7%), non-mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: -14.9% to -1.8%). Large-gathering bans were associated with the smallest change in mobility compared with other policy types. Changes in mobility were in turn associated with changes in COVID-19 case growth. For example, a 10% decrease in time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new COVID-19 cases.

DISCUSSION

This comprehensive evaluation across Europe suggests that mandatory stay-at-home orders and workplace closures had the largest impacts on population mobility and subsequent COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic. With a better understanding of policies' relative performance, countries can more effectively invest in, and target, early nonpharmacological interventions.

State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases

BACKGROUND

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sickened over 20 million residents in the United States (US) by January 2021. Our objective was to describe state variation in the effect of initial social distancing policies and non-essential business (NEB) closure on infection rates early in 2020.

METHODS

We used an interrupted time series study design to estimate the total effect of all state social distancing orders, including NEB closure, shelter-in-place, and stay-at-home orders, on cumulative COVID-19 cases for each state. Data included the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for all 50 states and Washington, DC from the New York Times database (January 21 to May 7, 2020). We predicted cumulative daily cases and deaths using a generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution and a log link for two models.

RESULTS

Social distancing was associated with a 15.4% daily reduction (Relative Risk = 0.846; Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.832, 0.859) in COVID-19 cases. After 3 weeks, social distancing prevented nearly 33 million cases nationwide, with about half (16.5 million) of those prevented cases among residents of the Mid-Atlantic census division (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania). Eleven states prevented more than 10,000 cases per 100,000 residents within 3 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of social distancing on the infection rate of COVID-19 in the US varied substantially across states, and effects were largest in states with highest community spread.

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39) or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models should be used to guide decisions pertaining to vaccination programmes for the best possible results. In the months following the introduction of vaccines, their availability and the human resources needed to run the vaccination programmes have been scarce in many countries. Vaccine hesitancy is also being encountered from some sections of the general public. We emphasize that decision-making under uncertainty and imperfect information, and with only conditionally optimal outcomes, is a unique forte of established game-theoretic modelling. Therefore, we can use this approach to obtain the best framework for modelling and simulating vaccination prioritization and uptake that will be readily available to inform important policy decisions for the optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vaccination in the Philippines: experiences from history and lessons for the future

In anticipation of a potential vaccine for COVID-19, vaccine uptake may be critical in overcoming the pandemic, especially in countries like the Philippines, which has among the highest rates of infection in the region. Looking at the progress of vaccination in the country - its promises, pitfalls, and challenges - may provide insight for public health professionals and the public. The history of vaccination in the Philippines is marked by strong achievements, such as the establishment and growth of a national programme for immunization, and importantly, the eradication of poliomyelitis and maternal and neonatal tetanus. It is also marred by critical challenges which provide a springboard for improvement across all sectors - vaccine stock-outs,strong opposition from certain advocacy groups, and the widely publicized Dengvaxia controversy. Moving forward, with recent surveys having shown that vaccine confidence has begun to improve, these experiences may inform the approaches taken to address vaccine uptake. These lessons from the past highlight the importance of a strong partnership between health leaders and the local community, bearing in mind cultural appropriateness and humility; the engagement of multidisciplinary stakeholders; and the importance of foresight in preparing public health infrastructure for the arrival of a COVID-19 vaccine.

A cross-sectional study measuring contact patterns using diaries in an urban and a rural community in South Africa, 2018

BACKGROUND

Describing contact patterns is crucial to understanding infectious disease transmission dynamics and guiding targeted transmission mitigation interventions. Data on contact patterns in Africa, especially South Africa, are limited. We measured and compared contact patterns in a rural and urban community, South Africa. We assessed participant and contact characteristics associated with differences in contact rates.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study nested in a prospective household cohort study. We interviewed participants to collect information on persons in contact with for one day. We described self-reported contact rates as median number people contacted per day, assessed differences in contact rates based on participant characteristics using quantile regression, and used a Poisson model to assess differences in contact rates based on contact characteristics within age groups. We also calculated cumulative person hours in contact within age groups at different locations.

RESULTS

We conducted 535 interviews (269 rural, 266 urban), with 17,252 contacts reported. The overall contact rate was 14 (interquartile range (IQR) 9-33) contacts per day. Those ≤18 years had higher contact rates at the rural site (coefficient 17, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 10-23) compared to the urban site, for those aged 14-18 years (13, 95%CI 3-23) compared to < 7 years. No differences were observed for adults. There was a strong age-based mixing, with age groups interacting more with similar age groups, but also interaction of participants of all ages with adults. Children aged 14-18 years had the highest cumulative person hours in contact (116.3 rural and 76.4 urban).

CONCLUSIONS

Age played an important role in the number and duration of contact events, with children at the rural site having almost double the contact rate compared to the urban site. These contact rates can be utilized in mathematical models to assess transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in similar communities.

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly developed into a global epidemic. To control its spread, countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures, bans of small gatherings, or even stay-at-home orders. Here we study the effectiveness of seven NPIs in reducing the number of new infections, which was inferred from the reported cases of COVID-19 using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n = 20 countries (i.e., the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-15 countries, Norway, and Switzerland), we estimate the relative reduction in the number of new infections attributed to each NPI. Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective. With this retrospective cross-country analysis, we provide estimates regarding the effectiveness of different NPIs during the first epidemic wave.

The clinical epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 in children and adolescents mirrors the widening gap in healthcare disparities

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has exacerbated the longstanding racial/ethnic health disparities in the USA, with a disproportionately negative effect on children of color. This review summarizes recently published studies that describe the clinical epidemiology and racial/ethnic disparities associated with SARS-CoV-2 in children.

RECENT FINDINGS

Children with SARS-CoV-2 infections manifest with a wide spectrum of disease. Most are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic with fever, gastrointestinal, and/or upper respiratory disease. Some children can progress to develop severe lower respiratory disease or a hyper-inflammatory, Kawasaki-like syndrome leading to cardiovascular shock. Although SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in children are rare, more children died within the first nine months of the pandemic than have died during any influenza season over the last decade.Black and Hispanic children represent less than 41% of the US population but account for three out of every four SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalizations and deaths in the USA. The drivers of these disparities in children are complex and likely a combination of societal, biological, and behavioral influences.

SUMMARY

This pandemic brought to light longstanding health disparities in historically marginalized populations, and minority children have suffered tremendously. It provides an opportunity to understand how a virus hijacked deep-rooted inequities, address these inequities, and work to prevent this outcome in future pandemics/epidemics.

Remdesivir in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment: a review of evidence

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a novel β-coronavirus, belonging to the same subgenus as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus. Remdesivir, an investigational broad-spectrum antiviral agent has previously demonstrated in vitro activity against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and in vivo efficacy against other related coronaviruses in animal models. Its safety profile has been tested in a compassionate use setting for patients with COVID-19. The current therapeutic studies demonstrate clinical effectiveness of remdesivir in COVID-19 patients by shortening time to clinical recovery, and hospital stay. In this review, we critically analyze the current evidence of remdesivir against COVID-19 and dissect the aspects over its safety and efficacy. Based on existing data, remdesivir can be regarded as a potential therapeutic agent against COVID-19. Further large-scale, randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials are, however, awaited to validate these findings.