Evaluation of inconsistency in networks of interventions

Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation for the Treatment of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis: La Stimulation Magnétique Transcrânienne Répétitive Pour le Traitement du Trouble de Stress Post-Traumatique : Une Revue Systématique et une Méta-Analyse en Réseau

BACKGROUND

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is a promising treatment modality for Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Several targets and stimulation parameters have been investigated, and while previous meta-analyses have suggested that rTMS is efficacious, these have pooled different stimulation parameters and targets, and the relative efficacy of each is unknown.

METHODS

We therefore performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and PsycINFO and retaining RCTs with at least 5 individuals per arm and clinician-rated PTSD symptoms (PROSPERO CRD42019134984). We adhered to PRISMA guidelines, and 2 independent reviewers screened studies for eligibility and extracted the primary outcome of clinician-rated PTSD symptoms. Dropouts were extracted as a proxy for acceptability. Random effects pairwise meta-analyses and a network meta-analysis were performed.

RESULTS

We synthesize data from 10 RCTs with a total of 421 participants. Two rTMS interventions targeting the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) improved PTSD symptoms relative to sham: low-frequency stimulation (SMD = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.22 to 1.18) and high-frequency stimulation (SMD = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.11 to 1.31). Medial PFC dTMS, right DLPFC intermittent theta-burst stimulation, and left DLPFC high-frequency stimulation did not separate from sham. Dropouts as a proxy for acceptability revealed no differences between any of the active conditions or sham nor did any of the active conditions differ from each other.

CONCLUSION

The current literature does not support efficacy differences between interventions; however, protocols stimulating the right DLPFC appear superior to sham. It is unclear whether this reflects heterogeneity in pathology requiring a personalized medicine approach or nonspecific mechanisms of rTMS.

Which Bone-Modifying Agent is Associated with Better Outcomes in Patients with Skeletal Metastases from Lung Cancer? A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers and is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths. Metastatic bone disease occurs in 20% to 40% of patients with lung cancer, and these patients often present with pain or skeletal-related events (SREs) that are associated with decreased survival. Bone-modifying agents such as denosumab or bisphosphonates are routinely used; however, to our knowledge, there has been no quantitative synthesis of randomized controlled trial data to determine the most effective pharmacologic treatment of metastatic bone disease because of lung cancer.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We aimed to perform a network meta-analysis of randomized trials to identify the bone-modifying agent that is associated with the (1) highest overall survival, (2) longest time to SRE, (3) lowest SRE incidence, and (4) greatest likelihood of pain resolution.

METHODS

We conducted our study according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol and pre-registered the analysis on PROSPERO (ID: CRD42019124364). We performed a librarian-assisted search of MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Chinese databases including China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Data. We included randomized controlled trials reporting outcomes specifically for patients with lung cancer treated with a bisphosphonate or denosumab. SREs included pathologic fractures, spinal cord compression, hypercalcemia of malignancy, or pain resulting in surgical intervention or radiation therapy. We excluded trials exclusively reporting surrogate outcomes such as changes in bone turnover markers. Screening, data extraction, risk of bias evaluation, and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation evaluations were performed in duplicate. We included 131 randomized controlled trials that evaluated 11,105 patients with skeletal metastases from lung cancer. The network meta-analysis was performed using a frequentist model and the R statistical software. Results are reported as relative risks or mean differences, and the I2 value is reported for heterogeneity. The P-score, a measure of ranking certainty that accounts for standard error, is reported for each outcome. Heterogeneity in the network was considered moderate for overall survival and time to SRE, mild for the incidence of SRE, and low for pain resolution.

RESULTS

For overall survival, denosumab was ranked above zoledronic acid and estimated to confer a mean of 3.3 months (95% CI 0.3-6.3) of increased overall survival compared with untreated patients (P-score = 89%). For the time to SRE, denosumab was ranked first with a mean of 9.1 additional SRE-free months (95% CI 6.7-11.5) compared with untreated patients (P-score = 99%), while zoledronic acid conferred an additional 4.8 SRE-free months (95% CI 3.6-6.1). Reduction in the incidence of SREs was not different between patients treated with denosumab (relative risk 0.54; 95% CI 0.33-0.87) and those treated with zoledronic acid (relative risk 0.56; 95% CI 0.46-0.67). Patients treated with the combination of ibandronate and systemic therapy were more likely to experience successful pain resolution than untreated patients (relative risk 2.4; 95% CI 1.8-3.2).

CONCLUSION

In this comprehensive synthesis of all available randomized controlled trial evidence guiding the pharmacologic treatment of bone metastases from lung cancer, denosumab was ranked above zoledronic acid for overall survival and time to SRE and was not different for reducing the incidence of SRE. Both were superior to no treatment for each of these outcomes. Given this, we encourage physicians to consider the use of denosumab or zoledronic acid in treating this patient population. The combination of ibandronate and systemic therapy was the most effective at reducing pain because of metastases. No cost-effectiveness analysis has yet been performed for denosumab and zoledronic acid on patients with metastatic lung cancer, and this represents an avenue for future research.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level I, therapeutic study.

Work-related interventions for preventing back pain-protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Back pain is a widespread health problem that accounts for substantial disability and high costs. The workplace is considered to critically affect the occurrence and persistence of back pain and therefore offers an important opportunity for preventive interventions. Various work-related intervention strategies including both single- and multicomponent interventions have been developed and evaluated so far. To determine their effectiveness, a method of analysis is needed that particularly meets the challenges of the multidimensionality and diversity of these interventions. This planned systematic review and network meta-analysis aims to compare the effects of different work-related interventions for preventing non-specific back pain in people within a formal employment-related context.

METHODS

We will search the following databases: CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, PEDro, SPORTDiscus, and Academic Search Premier from their inception onwards, as well as additional sources. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs will be considered if they (1) include people within a formal employment-related context, (2) include people without back pain or mixed samples (i.e., people with and without back pain), (3) compare one or more work-related preventive intervention(s) to a control condition, and (4) assess non-specific back pain (incidence or/and pain intensity), ability to work (numbers of participants or/and numbers of days absent from work), intervention-related adverse events or/and self-reported satisfaction with the intervention. Random-effects pairwise meta-analyses and frequentist network meta-analyses will be conducted where appropriate. We will calculate summary effect sizes for each comparison of interventions and rank interventions according to their P scores. If feasible, we will conduct additional component network meta-analyses. We plan to conduct subgroup analyses for job exposure, intervention duration, baseline back pain, different localizations of back pain, and gender. Risk of bias will be assessed using RoB 2 and the certainty of the evidence will be rated using the GRADE approach.

DISCUSSION

This systematic review aims to identify work-related intervention strategies as well as components within work-related interventions that are effective for preventing back pain. We expect the results to provide guidance for selecting the most promising interventions and foster the purposeful use of resources. Additionally, they may inform the development and implementation of work-related interventions as well as the design of future research in this field.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021232469.

The comparative safety of human papillomavirus vaccines: A Bayesian network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The safety of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, one of the major challenges to public vaccination, has been controversial. This study assessed the adverse reactions of various HPV vaccines, including bivalent HPV (2vHPV), quadrivalent HPV (4vHPV), and 9-valent HPV (9vHPV) vaccines.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Central databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the comparative safety of HPV vaccines. A network meta-analysis was performed based on the Bayesian framework random-effects model.

RESULTS

This study included 23 RCTs. Analysis across these reports indicated that the 2vHPV vaccine was associated with significantly more systemic adverse events than the 4vHPV vaccine (risk ratio [RR]: 1.28, 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.14-1.44), 9vHPV vaccine (RR: 1.25, 95% CrI: 1.06-1.49), and placebo (RR: 1.31, 95% CrI: 1.18-1.46). However, there were no statistically significant differences in serious adverse events between the vaccinated and placebo groups. For injection-site adverse events, there were substantial inconsistencies between the direct and indirect effects; therefore, the analysis results of the safety were presented only for systemic and serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2vHPV vaccine resulted in more systemic adverse events than other vaccines and placebo. No significant differences in serious adverse events were observed. Further studies are needed to obtain more information regarding the safety of HPV vaccines.

Evaluation of Pharmacologic Treatments for H1 Antihistamine-Refractory Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis

Importance

The comparative benefits and harms of all available treatments for H1 antihistamine-refractory chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) have not been established.

Objective

To evaluate different treatment effects of pharmacologic treatments among patients with H1 antihistamine-refractory CSU.

Data Sources

Searches were conducted of MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, and CINAHL from inception to April 19, 2021, with no language restrictions. Gray literature from Google Scholar, ongoing trial registers, and preprint reports was added to the searches of electronic databases.

Study Selection

Randomized clinical trials using validated measurement tools that investigated the benefits and harms of pharmacologic treatments among adolescent or adult patients with CSU who had an inadequate response to H1 antihistamines were screened for inclusion independently by 2 investigators.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Two investigators independently extracted study data according to the predefined list of interests. A random-effects model was used to calculate the network estimates reported as standardized mean differences and odds ratios with corresponding 95% CIs.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes that reflect the patient's perspective included changes in urticaria symptoms from baseline and unacceptability of treatment (all-cause dropouts).

Results

Twenty-three randomized clinical trials with 2480 participants that compared 18 different interventions or dosages and placebo were included. The standardized mean differences for change in urticaria symptoms were -1.05 (95% CI, -1.37 to -0.73) for ligelizumab, 72 mg; -1.07 (95% CI, -1.39 to -0.75) for ligelizumab, 240 mg; -0.77 (95% CI, -0.91 to -0.63) for omalizumab, 300 mg; and -0.59 (95% CI, -1.10 to -0.08) for omalizumab, 600 mg. No significant differences in treatment unacceptability were observed. With respect to benefits and harms, the network estimates illustrated that the most efficacious treatments were achieved with ligelizumab, 72 or 240 mg (large beneficial effect) and omalizumab, 300 or 600 mg (moderate beneficial effect).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings in this meta-analysis suggest that the biologic agents ligelizumab, 72 or 240 mg, and omalizumab, 300 or 600 mg, can be recommended as effective treatments for patients with CSU who have had an inadequate response to H1 antihistamines. Head-to-head trials with high methodologic quality and harmonized design and outcome definitions are needed to help inform subsequent international guidelines for the management of CSU.

Beds, overlays and mattresses for preventing and treating pressure ulcers: an overview of Cochrane Reviews and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pressure ulcers (also known as pressure injuries, pressure sores and bed sores) are localised injuries to the skin or underlying soft tissue, or both, caused by unrelieved pressure, shear or friction. Specific kinds of beds, overlays and mattresses are widely used with the aim of preventing and treating pressure ulcers.

OBJECTIVES

To summarise evidence from Cochrane Reviews that assess the effects of beds, overlays and mattresses on reducing the incidence of pressure ulcers and on increasing pressure ulcer healing in any setting and population. To assess the relative effects of different types of beds, overlays and mattresses for reducing the incidence of pressure ulcers and increasing pressure ulcer healing in any setting and population. To cumulatively rank the different treatment options of beds, overlays and mattresses in order of their effectiveness in pressure ulcer prevention and treatment.

METHODS

In July 2020, we searched the Cochrane Library. Cochrane Reviews reporting the effectiveness of beds, mattresses or overlays for preventing or treating pressure ulcers were eligible for inclusion in this overview. Two review authors independently screened search results and undertook data extraction and risk of bias assessment using the ROBIS tool. We summarised the reported evidence in an overview of reviews. Where possible, we included the randomised controlled trials from each included review in network meta-analyses. We assessed the relative effectiveness of beds, overlays and mattresses for preventing or treating pressure ulcers and their probabilities of being, comparably, the most effective treatment. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We include six Cochrane Reviews in this overview of reviews, all at low or unclear risk of bias. Pressure ulcer prevention: four reviews (of 68 studies with 18,174 participants) report direct evidence for 27 pairwise comparisons between 12 types of support surface on the following outcomes: pressure ulcer incidence, time to pressure ulcer incidence, patient comfort response, adverse event rates, health-related quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. Here we focus on outcomes with some evidence at a minimum of low certainty. (1) Pressure ulcer incidence: our overview includes direct evidence for 27 comparisons that mostly (19/27) have very low-certainty evidence concerning reduction of pressure ulcer risk. We included 40 studies (12,517 participants; 1298 participants with new ulcers) in a network meta-analysis involving 13 types of intervention. Data informing the network are sparse and this, together with the high risk of bias in most studies informing the network, means most network contrasts (64/78) yield evidence of very low certainty. There is low-certainty evidence that, compared with foam surfaces (reference treatment), reactive air surfaces (e.g. static air overlays) (risk ratio (RR) 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29 to 0.75), alternating pressure (active) air surfaces (e.g. alternating pressure air mattresses, large-celled ripple mattresses) (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.93), and reactive gel surfaces (e.g. gel pads used on operating tables) (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.01) may reduce pressure ulcer incidence. The ranking of treatments in terms of effectiveness is also of very low certainty for all interventions. It is unclear which treatment is best for preventing ulceration. (2) Time to pressure ulcer incidence: four reviews had direct evidence on this outcome for seven comparisons. We included 10 studies (7211 participants; 699 participants with new ulcers) evaluating six interventions in a network meta-analysis. Again, data from most network contrasts (13/15) are of very low certainty. There is low-certainty evidence that, compared with foam surfaces (reference treatment), reactive air surfaces may reduce the hazard of developing new pressure ulcers (hazard ratio (HR) 0.20, 95% CI 0.04 to 1.05). The ranking of all support surfaces for preventing pressure ulcers in terms of time to healing is uncertain. (3) Cost-effectiveness: this overview includes direct evidence for three comparisons. For preventing pressure ulcers, alternating pressure air surfaces are probably more cost-effective than foam surfaces (moderate-certainty evidence). Pressure ulcer treatment: two reviews (of 12 studies with 972 participants) report direct evidence for five comparisons on: complete pressure ulcer healing, time to complete pressure ulcer healing, patient comfort response, adverse event rates, and cost-effectiveness. Here we focus on outcomes with some evidence at a minimum of low certainty. (1) Complete pressure ulcer healing: our overview includes direct evidence for five comparisons. There is uncertainty about the relative effects of beds, overlays and mattresses on ulcer healing. The corresponding network meta-analysis (with four studies, 397 participants) had only three direct contrasts and a total of six network contrasts. Again, most network contrasts (5/6) have very low-certainty evidence. There was low-certainty evidence that more people with pressure ulcers may heal completely using reactive air surfaces than using foam surfaces (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.80). We are uncertain which surfaces have the highest probability of being the most effective (all very low-certainty evidence). (2) Time to complete pressure ulcer healing: this overview includes direct evidence for one comparison: people using reactive air surfaces may be more likely to have healed pressure ulcers compared with those using foam surfaces in long-term care settings (HR 2.66, 95% CI 1.34 to 5.17; low-certainty evidence). (3) Cost-effectiveness: this overview includes direct evidence for one comparison: compared with foam surfaces, reactive air surfaces may cost an extra 26 US dollars for every ulcer-free day in the first year of use in long-term care settings (low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Compared with foam surfaces, reactive air surfaces may reduce pressure ulcer risk and may increase complete ulcer healing. Compared with foam surfaces, alternating pressure air surfaces may reduce pressure ulcer risk and are probably more cost-effective in preventing pressure ulcers. Compared with foam surfaces, reactive gel surfaces may reduce pressure ulcer risk, particularly for people in operating rooms and long-term care settings. There are uncertainties for the relative effectiveness of other support surfaces for preventing and treating pressure ulcers, and their efficacy ranking. More high-quality research is required; for example, for the comparison of reactive air surfaces with alternating pressure air surfaces. Future studies should consider time-to-event outcomes and be designed to minimise any risk of bias.

Network Meta-Analysis Techniques for Synthesizing Prevention Science Evidence

Network meta-analysis is a popular statistical technique for synthesizing evidence from studies comparing multiple interventions. Benefits of network meta-analysis, over more traditional pairwise meta-analysis approaches, include evaluating efficacy/safety of interventions within a single framework, increased precision, comparing pairs of interventions that have never been directly compared in a trial, and providing a hierarchy of interventions in terms of their effectiveness. Network meta-analysis is relatively underutilized in prevention science. This paper therefore presents a primer of network meta-analysis for prevention scientists who wish to apply this method or to critically appraise evidence from publications using the method. We introduce the key concepts and assumptions of network meta-analysis, namely, transitivity and consistency, and demonstrate their applicability to the field of prevention science. We then illustrate the method using a network meta-analysis examining the comparative effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions for preventing hazardous drinking among college students. We provide data and code for all examples. Finally, we discuss considerations that are particularly relevant in network meta-analyses in the field of prevention, such as including non-randomized evidence.

Comparative Effectiveness of Injection Therapies for Hemiplegic Shoulder Pain in Stroke: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Hemiplegic shoulder pain (HSP) hampers post-stroke functional recovery and is not well managed with conservative treatments. This systematic review aimed to examine the various injection therapies for HSP and investigate their effectiveness at different time points. The protocol of this meta-analysis was registered on INPLASY with a registration number of INPLASY202180010. PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus were searched from their inception to 4 August 2021 for the clinical studies investigating comparative effectiveness of different injection regimens for treating hemiplegic shoulder pain in patients with stroke. The primary outcome was the weighted mean difference (WMD) on the visual analog scale (VAS) of pain reduction in the fourth-week and between the fourth and twenty-fourth weeks. Ranking probabilities of the WMD for each treatment were obtained using simulations. Seventeen studies with 595 participants were included. The network meta-analysis showed that at the fourth-week, intra-muscular botulinum toxin (BoNT) injections and suprascapular nerve blocks (SSNB) were superior to a placebo, with WMDs of 1.55 (95% CI, 0.09 to 3.01) and 1.44 (95% CI, 0.07 to 2.80), respectively. SSNB possessed the highest probability (53.3%) and appeared to be the best treatment in the fourth-week, followed by intra-muscular BoNT injections (42.6%). Intramuscular BoNT injections were better than the placebo, with a WMD of 1.57 (95% CI, 0.30 to 2.84) between the 4th and 24th weeks. Intramuscular BoNT injections had the highest probability (79.8%) as the best treatment between the 4th and 24th weeks. SSNB was likely to rank first in relieving HSP at the fourth post-treatment week, whereas intra-muscular BoNT injections had the highest probability to achieve the best treatment effectiveness in the post-injection period between the fourth and twenty-fourth weeks. However, as some of the included studies used a non-randomized controlled design, more randomized controlled trials are needed in the future to validate and better understand the short- and long-term efficacy of different injection therapies for management of HSP.

Exercise versus Metformin to Improve Pregnancy Outcomes among Overweight Pregnant Women: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Being overweight is associated with pregnancy-related disorders such as gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), and excessive maternal weight gain (MWG). Exercise and metformin reduce the risk of these disorders. This network meta-analysis (NMA) aims to compare the effect of metformin and different types of exercise (aerobic, resistance and combined) on the risk of GDM, HDP, and MWG among overweight/obese pregnant women. Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane Library were searched from inception to June 2021. Meta-analyses and NMAs were performed. Sixteen randomized controlled trials were included. In the NMA, aerobic exercise showed an effect on GDM (RR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.26, 0.97), and metformin a reduction in MWG (MWG = -2.93 kg, 95% CI = -4.98, -0.87). No intervention showed any effect on the reduction of HDP. Our study suggests that aerobic exercise may have the greatest effect in reducing the risk of GDM, and perhaps, the MWG. Strategies should be developed to increase adherence to this type of intervention among overweight women without contraindications. Although metformin could reduce MWG, medicalization of pregnancy in healthy women is not justified with the present results. More research is needed on the effect of the intensity and frequency of exercise sessions and the length of interventions.

Comparative Efficacy of Antifungal Agents Used in the Treatment of Oropharyngeal Candidiasis among HIV-Infected Adults: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

The objective of this study was to assess the comparative efficacy and safety of different antifungal agents used for the treatment of oropharyngeal candidiasis (OPC) in adult patients with HIV. A systematic search was performed on the four major databases (Medline, Embase, CENTRAL and Scopus) to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the efficacy of antifungal agents in HIV patients with OPC. A network meta-analysis was performed from the data extracted from the selected studies. The agents were ranked according using surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA). The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used to determine the quality of evidence. A total of 15 trials were included in the quantitative analysis involving the data from a total of 2883 participants. Fluconazole was ranked as the most effective antifungal agent to achieve clinical cure (SUCRA = 0.87) in OPC followed by posaconazole and itraconazole. Posaconazole was ranked the most efficacious agent in achieving mycological cure (SUCRA = 0.81), followed by fluconazole. While nystatin was ranked the safest, the effect estimates of none of the other systemic antifungal agents were significantly higher than fluconazole. Based on the available evidence, fluconazole can be considered as the most effective drug in the treatment of OPC among HIV-infected adults and has a favorable safety profile, followed by posaconazole.

Computer-aided detection versus advanced imaging for detection of colorectal neoplasia: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Computer-aided detection (CADe) techniques based on artificial intelligence algorithms can assist endoscopists in detecting colorectal neoplasia. CADe has been associated with an increased adenoma detection rate, a key quality indicator, but the utility of CADe compared with existing advanced imaging techniques and distal attachment devices is unclear.

METHODS

For this systematic review and network meta-analysis, we did a comprehensive search of PubMed/Medline, Embase, and Scopus databases from inception to Nov 30, 2020, for randomised controlled trials investigating the effectiveness of the following endoscopic techniques in detecting colorectal neoplasia: CADe, high definition (HD) white-light endoscopy, chromoendoscopy, or add-on devices (ie, systems that increase mucosal visualisation, such as full spectrum endoscopy [FUSE] or G-EYE balloon endoscopy). We collected data on adenoma detection rates, sessile serrated lesion detection rates, the proportion of large adenomas detected per colonoscopy, and withdrawal times. A frequentist framework, random-effects network meta-analysis was done to compare artificial intelligence with chromoendoscopy, increased mucosal visualisation systems, and HD white-light endoscopy (the control group). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for the adenoma detection rate, sessile serrated lesion detection rate, and proportion of large adenomas detected per colonoscopy, and calculated mean differences for withdrawal time, with 95% CIs. Risk of bias and certainty of evidence were assessed with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

FINDINGS

50 randomised controlled trials, comprising 34 445 participants, were included in our main analysis (six trials of CADe, 18 of chromoendoscopy, and 26 of increased mucosal visualisation systems). HD white-light endoscopy was the control technique in all 50 studies. Compared with the control technique, the adenoma detection rate was 7·4% higher with CADe (OR 1·78 [95% CI 1·44-2·18]), 4·4% higher with chromoendoscopy (1·22 [1·08-1·39]), and 4·1% higher with increased mucosal visualisation systems (1·16 [1·04-1·28]). CADe ranked as the superior technique for adenoma detection (with moderate confidence in hierarchical ranking); cross-comparisons of CADe with other imaging techniques showed a significant increase in the adenoma detection rate with CADe versus increased mucosal visualisation systems (OR 1·54 [95% CI 1·22-1·94]; low certainty of evidence) and with CADe versus chromoendoscopy (1·45 [1·14-1·85]; moderate certainty of evidence). When focusing on large adenomas (≥10 mm) there was a significant increase in the detection of large adenomas only with CADe (OR 1·69 [95% CI 1·10-2·60], moderate certainty of evidence) when compared to HD white-light endoscopy; CADe ranked as the superior strategy for detection of large adenomas. CADe also seemed to be the superior strategy for detection of sessile serrated lesions (with moderate confidence in hierarchical ranking), although no significant increase in the sessile serrated lesion detection rate was shown (OR 1·37 [95% CI 0·65-2·88]). No significant difference in withdrawal time was reported for CADe compared with the other techniques.

INTERPRETATION

Based on the published literature, detection rates of colorectal neoplasia are higher with CADe than with other techniques such as chromoendoscopy or tools that increase mucosal visualisation, supporting wider incorporation of CADe strategies into community endoscopy services.

FUNDING

None.

Metabolic side effects of antipsychotic drugs in individuals with schizophrenia during medium- to long-term treatment: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Antipsychotic drugs and especially the newer compounds are known to cause metabolic side effects. However, a comprehensive comparison of the different substances regarding their propensity to cause metabolic side effects in medium- to long-term treatment of schizophrenia is lacking.

METHODS

We will conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA). We will include randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in which participants received either placebo or an antipsychotic (i.e. placebo-controlled trials and head-to-head comparisons of drugs). We will include studies in individuals with schizophrenia or related disorders (such as schizophreniform or schizoaffective disorders) at any stage of the disease (acute episode; maintenance phase). We will include studies with a duration of more than 3 months (medium- to long-term treatment). The primary outcome will be the change in body weight. Secondary outcomes will be the further metabolic parameters: fastening glucose, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and triglycerides. We will search for eligible studies (independent of the publication status) in Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's Study-Based Register of Trials, which is compiled by regular searches in trial registries and multiple electronic databases from their inception onwards including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO. Additionally, we will search previously published systematic reviews and websites of pharmaceutical companies for eligible studies. At least two reviewers will independently conduct the process of study selection and data extraction. We will use the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool to evaluate the risk of bias in studies. We will conduct random-effects NMA within a Bayesian framework to synthesize all evidence for each outcome. We will conduct sensitivity and subgroup analyses to assess the robustness of the findings and to explore heterogeneity. The confidence in the results will be evaluated using the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis (CINeMA) framework.

DISCUSSION

This systematic review and network meta-analysis will provide a synthesis of the existing evidence from RCTs how antipsychotic drugs differ in terms of metabolic side effects during medium- to long-term treatment. The findings have the potential to influence the choice of antipsychotic medication made by individuals with schizophrenia and their physicians.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020175414.

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Ultra-Long-Acting, Long-Acting, Intermediate-Acting, and Biosimilar Insulins for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: a Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Increasing availability of competing biosimilar alternatives makes it challenging to make treatment decisions. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the comparative efficacy and safety of ultra-long-/long-/intermediate-acting insulin products and biosimilar insulin compared to human/animal insulin in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and grey literature were searched from inception to March 27, 2019. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-experimental studies, and cohort studies of adults with T1DM receiving ultra-long-/long-/intermediate-acting insulin, compared to each other, as well as biosimilar insulin compared to human/animal insulin were eligible for inclusion. Two reviewers independently screened studies, abstracted data, and appraised risk-of-bias. Pairwise meta-analyses and network meta-analyses (NMA) were conducted. Summary effect measures were mean differences (MD) and odds ratios (OR).

RESULTS

We included 65 unique studies examining 14,200 patients with T1DM. Both ultra-long-acting and long-acting insulin were superior to intermediate-acting insulin in reducing A1c, FPG, weight gain, and the incidence of major, serious, or nocturnal hypoglycemia. For fasting blood glucose, long-acting once a day (od) was superior to long-acting twice a day (bid) (MD - 0.44, 95% CI: - 0.81 to - 0.06) and ultra-long-acting od was superior to long-acting bid (MD - 0.73, 95% CI - 1.36 to - 0.11). For weight change, long-acting od was inferior to long-acting bid (MD 0.58, 95% CI: 0.05 to 1.10) and long-acting bid was superior to long-action biosimilar od (MD - 0.90, 95% CI: - 1.67 to - 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results can be used to tailor insulin treatment according to the desired results of patients and clinicians and inform strategies to establish a competitive clinical market, address systemic barriers, expand the pool of potential suppliers, and favor insulin price reduction.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

CRD42017077051.

Teaching Parents to Be Responsive: A Network Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Children who receive more responsive care during their early childhood tend to exhibit stronger cognitive development, mental well-being, and physical health across their life course.

OBJECTIVE

Determine how to design effective responsivity training programs for caregivers.

DATA SOURCES

We searched seven electronic databases through October 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized trials (k = 120) of programs training parents of children ages 0 to 6 to be more responsive.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers independently extracted data. Data were pooled by using random-effects pairwise and network meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Programs had, on average, a medium effect (d = 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47 to 0.65). The most effective programs included didactic teaching and opportunities for parents to observe models, practice skills, and receive feedback (d = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.37 to 1.77), or all these instructional methods in addition to reflection (d = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.64 to 1.09). Programs that had participants observe examples of responsivity (d = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.83), used researchers as facilitators (d = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.66 to 1.12), assigned homework (d = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.66 to 1.02), and had a narrow scope (d = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.87) were more effective than those that did not.

LIMITATIONS

Most samples included only mothers from Western countries and lacked follow-up data.

CONCLUSIONS

Having parents observe examples of responsive caregiving and complete home-practice in short, focused programs may be an effective, scalable approach to enhancing responsivity in the general population and reducing inequalities in child development.

Complications associated with three brachial plexus blocking techniques: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Brachial plexus block has become one of the most widely-used anaesthetic techniques in the world for upper limb anaesthesia. There are three different brachial blocks techniques: supraclavicular, infraclavicular and axillary block. However, its execution is not exempt from possible clinical complications, and it is not clear which of these is associated with a lower complication rate and greater anaesthetic success.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis following the Cochrane and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines to identify controlled clinical trials reporting the three techniques. The main outcome was the incidence of anaesthetic complications, and the secondary ones were an anaesthetic success, time of performance and anaesthetic latency.

RESULTS

25 controlled clinical trials, with 2012 patient, were included. The methodological quality of the included studies is moderate to high. For the main outcome, the main complication reported was a vascular puncture, followed by transient neurological injury, symptomatic diaphragmatic paralysis and pneumothorax. No differences were found in complications associated with the three anaesthetic techniques. Additionally, no differences were found regarding anaesthetic success.

CONCLUSIONS

Anesthetic complications associated with the three brachial block techniques are low, with no medium and long-term sequelae; however, none of the three techniques seems to be superior among them to reduce these complications. All three techniques are highly successful when performed using ultrasound imaging.

Minimally invasive treatments for lower urinary tract symptoms in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A variety of minimally invasive treatments are available as an alternative to transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) for management of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). However, it is unclear which treatments provide better results.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective was to assess the comparative effectiveness of minimally invasive treatments for lower urinary tract symptoms in men with BPH through a network meta-analysis. Our secondary objective was to obtain an estimate of relative ranking of these minimally invasive treatments, according to their effects.

SEARCH METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search of multiple databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and LILACS), trials registries, other sources of grey literature, and conference proceedings, up to 24 February 2021. We had no restrictions on language of publication or publication status.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included parallel-group randomized controlled trials assessing the effects of the following minimally invasive treatments, compared to TURP or sham treatment, on men with moderate to severe LUTS due to BPH: convective radiofrequency water vapor therapy (CRFWVT); prostatic arterial embolization (PAE); prostatic urethral lift (PUL); temporary implantable nitinol device (TIND); and transurethral microwave thermotherapy (TUMT).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We performed statistical analyses using a random-effects model for pair-wise comparisons and a frequentist network meta-analysis for combined estimates. We interpreted them according to Cochrane methods. We planned subgroup analyses by age, prostate volume, and severity of baseline symptoms. We used risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to express dichotomous data and mean differences (MDs) with 95% CIs to express continuous data. We used the GRADE approach to rate the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 27 trials involving 3017 men, mostly over age 50, with severe LUTS due to BPH. The overall certainty of evidence was low to very low due to concerns regarding bias, imprecision, inconsistency (heterogeneity), and incoherence. Based on the network meta-analysis, results for our main outcomes were as follows. Urologic symptoms (19 studies, 1847 participants): PUL and PAE may result in little to no difference in urologic symptoms scores (MD of International Prostate Symptoms Score [IPSS]) compared to TURP (3 to 12 months; MD range 0 to 35; higher scores indicate worse symptoms; PUL: 1.47, 95% CI -4.00 to 6.93; PAE: 1.55, 95% CI -1.23 to 4.33; low-certainty evidence). CRFWVT, TUMT, and TIND may result in worse urologic symptoms scores compared to TURP at short-term follow-up, but the CIs include little to no difference (CRFWVT: 3.6, 95% CI -4.25 to 11.46; TUMT: 3.98, 95% CI 0.85 to 7.10; TIND: 7.5, 95% CI -0.68 to 15.69; low-certainty evidence). Quality of life (QoL) (13 studies, 1459 participants): All interventions may result in little to no difference in the QoL scores, compared to TURP (3 to 12 months; MD of IPSS-QoL score; MD range 0 to 6; higher scores indicate worse symptoms; PUL: 0.06, 95% CI -1.17 to 1.30; PAE: 0.09, 95% CI -0.57 to 0.75; CRFWVT: 0.37, 95% CI -1.45 to 2.20; TUMT: 0.65, 95% CI -0.48 to 1.78; TIND: 0.87, 95% CI -1.04 to 2.79; low-certainty evidence). Major adverse events (15 studies, 1573 participants): TUMT probably results in a large reduction of major adverse events compared to TURP (RR 0.20, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.43; moderate-certainty evidence). PUL, CRFWVT, TIND and PAE may also result in a large reduction in major adverse events, but CIs include substantial benefits and harms at three months to 36 months; PUL: RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.04 to 2.22; CRFWVT: RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.01 to 18.62; TIND: RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.01 to 24.46; PAE: RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.25 to 1.68; low-certainty evidence). Retreatment (10 studies, 799 participants): We are uncertain about the effects of PAE and PUL on retreatment compared to TURP (12 to 60 months; PUL: RR 2.39, 95% CI 0.51 to 11.1; PAE: RR 4.39, 95% CI 1.25 to 15.44; very low-certainty evidence). TUMT may result in higher retreatment rates (RR 9.71, 95% CI 2.35 to 40.13; low-certainty evidence). Erectile function (six studies, 640 participants): We are very uncertain of the effects of minimally invasive treatments on erectile function (MD of International Index of Erectile Function [IIEF-5]; range 5 to 25; higher scores indicates better function; CRFWVT: 6.49, 95% CI -8.13 to 21.12; TIND: 5.19, 95% CI -9.36 to 19.74; PUL: 3.00, 95% CI -5.45 to 11.44; PAE: -0.03, 95% CI -6.38, 6.32; very low-certainty evidence). Ejaculatory dysfunction (eight studies, 461 participants): We are uncertain of the effects of PUL, PAE and TUMT on ejaculatory dysfunction compared to TURP (3 to 12 months; PUL: RR 0.05, 95 % CI 0.00 to 1.06; PAE: RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.92; TUMT: RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.68; low-certainty evidence). TURP is the reference treatment with the highest likelihood of being the most efficacious for urinary symptoms, QoL and retreatment, but the least favorable in terms of major adverse events, erectile function and ejaculatory function. Among minimally invasive procedures, PUL and PAE have the highest likelihood of being the most efficacious for urinary symptoms and QoL, TUMT for major adverse events, PUL for retreatment, CRFWVT and TIND for erectile function and PUL for ejaculatory function.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Minimally invasive treatments may result in similar or worse effects concerning urinary symptoms and QoL compared to TURP at short-term follow-up. They may result in fewer major adverse events, especially in the case of PUL and PAE; resulting in better rankings for symptoms scores. PUL may result in fewer retreatments compared to other interventions, especially TUMT, which had the highest retreatment rates at long-term follow-up. We are very uncertain about the effects of these interventions on erectile function. There was limited long-term data, especially for CRFWVT and TIND. Future high-quality studies with more extended follow-up, comparing different, active treatment modalities, and adequately reporting critical outcomes relevant to patients, including those related to sexual function, could provide more information on the relative effectiveness of these interventions.

Management of social isolation and loneliness in community-dwelling older adults: protocol for a network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

Social isolation and loneliness in older adults are significant public health issues. Various interventions such as exercise programmes or social activities are used in the management of social isolation and loneliness in older adults. Network meta-analysis (NMA) provides effect estimates for all comparisons by considering the relative efficacy of multiple intervention alternatives. Therefore, this study will determine the comparative efficacy of intervention to alleviate social isolation and loneliness of older adults in community dwelling by comparing direct and indirect interventions through systematic review and NMA.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will include all relevant randomised controlled trials for interventions of social isolation and loneliness in older adults written in English without any limitation of publication date through electronic databases: MEDLINE via OVID, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PsycINFO and CINAHL. Independent teams of reviewers will screen trial eligibility, collect data, identify duplication and assess risk of bias, by using the Cochrane revised risk of bias tool. The interventions for the management of social isolation and loneliness will be included. The primary outcome is social isolation. The secondary outcomes are loneliness and health-related quality of life. We will conduct an NMA through a Bayesian hierarchical model, by testing assumption (ie, transitivity) for NMA. We will also estimate the ranking probabilities for all interventions at each possible rank for each intervention. For estimation of each intervention efficacy, we will assess the certainty and credibility using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval will not be obtained for this systematic review as it will be conducted with published papers. The review results will be presented at a field-specific conference and published in a relevant peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020155789.

Comparative efficacy and acceptability of psychosocial treatments for disruptive behaviour disorders in children and adolescents: study protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Disruptive behaviour disorders are common among children and adolescents, with negative impacts on the youths, their families and society. Although multiple psychosocial treatments are effective in decreasing the symptoms of disruptive behaviour disorders, comprehensive evidence regarding the comparative efficacy and acceptability between these treatments is still lacking. Therefore, we propose a systematic review and network meta-analysis, integrating both direct and indirect comparisons to obtain a hierarchy of treatment efficacy and acceptability.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The present protocol will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocols. Ten databases, including Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, MEDLINE, APA PsycArticles, Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection, OpenDissertations, The Cochrane Library, Embase and CINAHL, will be searched from inception for randomised controlled trials of psychosocial treatments for children and adolescents with disruptive behaviour disorders, without restrictions on language, publication year and status. The primary outcomes will be efficacy at post-treatment (severity of disruptive behaviour disorders at post-treatment) and acceptability (dropout rate for any reason) of psychosocial treatments. The secondary outcomes will involve efficacy at follow-up, severity of internalising problems and improvement of social functioning. Two authors will independently conduct the study selection and data extraction, assess the risk of bias using the revised Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias tool and evaluate the quality of the evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework to network meta-analysis. We will perform Bayesian network meta-analyses with a random effects model. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses will be performed to evaluate the robustness of the findings.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The research does not require ethical approval. Results are planned to be published in journals or presented at conferences. The network meta-analysis will provide information on a hierarchy of treatment efficacy and acceptability and help make a clinical treatment choice.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020197448.

Dismantling, optimising, and personalising internet cognitive behavioural therapy for depression: a systematic review and component network meta-analysis using individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Internet cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) is a viable delivery format of CBT for depression. However, iCBT programmes include training in a wide array of cognitive and behavioural skills via different delivery methods, and it remains unclear which of these components are more efficacious and for whom.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and individual participant data component network meta-analysis (cNMA) of iCBT trials for depression. We searched PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published from database inception to Jan 1, 2019, that compared any form of iCBT against another or a control condition in the acute treatment of adults (aged ≥18 years) with depression. Studies with inpatients or patients with bipolar depression were excluded. We sought individual participant data from the original authors. When these data were unavailable, we used aggregate data. Two independent researchers identified the included components. The primary outcome was depression severity, expressed as incremental mean difference (iMD) in the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores when a component is added to a treatment. We developed a web app that estimates relative efficacies between any two combinations of components, given baseline patient characteristics. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42018104683.

FINDINGS

We identified 76 RCTs, including 48 trials contributing individual participant data (11 704 participants) and 28 trials with aggregate data (6474 participants). The participants' weighted mean age was 42·0 years and 12 406 (71%) of 17 521 reported were women. There was suggestive evidence that behavioural activation might be beneficial (iMD -1·83 [95% credible interval (CrI) -2·90 to -0·80]) and that relaxation might be harmful (1·20 [95% CrI 0·17 to 2·27]). Baseline severity emerged as the strongest prognostic factor for endpoint depression. Combining human and automated encouragement reduced dropouts from treatment (incremental odds ratio, 0·32 [95% CrI 0·13 to 0·93]). The risk of bias was low for the randomisation process, missing outcome data, or selection of reported results in most of the included studies, uncertain for deviation from intended interventions, and high for measurement of outcomes. There was moderate to high heterogeneity among the studies and their components.

INTERPRETATION

The individual patient data cNMA revealed potentially helpful, less helpful, or harmful components and delivery formats for iCBT packages. iCBT packages aiming to be effective and efficient might choose to include beneficial components and exclude ones that are potentially detrimental. Our web app can facilitate shared decision making by therapist and patient in choosing their preferred iCBT package.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

Hybrid Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials of Interventions for Depressive Symptoms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE

Depression is common in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and is associated with poor outcomes. Although different treatments are available, it is unclear which are best or most acceptable to patients, so we conducted a network meta-analysis of evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of different depression treatments to ascertain relative efficacy.

METHODS

We searched for systematic reviews of RCTs of depression treatments in CAD and updated these with a comprehensive search for recent individual RCTs. RCTs comparing depression treatments (pharmacological, psychotherapeutic, combined pharmacological/psychotherapeutic, exercise, collaborative care) were included. Primary outcomes were acceptability (dropout rate) and change in depressive symptoms 8 week after treatment commencement. Change in 26-week depression and mortality were secondary outcomes. Frequentist, random-effects network meta-analysis was used to synthesize the evidence, and evidence quality was evaluated following Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations recommendations.

RESULTS

Thirty-three RCTs (7240 participants) provided analyzable data. All treatments were equally acceptable. At 8 weeks, combination therapy (1 study), exercise (1 study), and antidepressants (10 studies) yielded the strongest effects versus comparators. At 26 weeks, antidepressants were consistently effective, but psychotherapy was only effective versus usual care. There were no differences in treatment groups for mortality. Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations ratings ranged from very low to low.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the evidence was limited and biased. Although all treatments for post-CAD depression were equally acceptable, antidepressants have the most robust evidence base and should be the first-line treatment. Combinations of antidepressants and psychotherapy, along with exercise, could be more effective than antidepressants alone but require further rigorous, multiarm intervention trials.Systematic Review Registration: CRD42018108293 (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews).

A network meta-analysis of psychosocial interventions for refugees and asylum seekers with PTSD

INTRODUCTION

Refugees and asylum seekers are vulnerable to common mental disorders, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using a network meta-analysis (NMA) approach, the present systematic review compared and ranked psychosocial interventions for the treatment of PTSD in adult refugees and asylum seekers.

METHODS

Randomised studies of psychosocial interventions for adult refugees and asylum seekers with PTSD were systematically identified. PTSD symptoms at postintervention was the primary outcome. Standardised mean differences (SMDs) and ORs were pooled using pairwise and NMA. Study quality was assessed with the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) tool, and certainty of evidence was assessed through the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis application.

RESULTS

A total of 23 studies with 2308 participants were included. Sixteen studies were conducted in high-income countries, and seven in low-income or middle-income countries. Most studies were at low risk of bias according to the Cochrane RoB tool. NMA on PTSD symptoms showed that cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) (SMD=-1.41; 95% CI -2.43 to -0.38) and eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing (EMDR) (SMD=-1.30; 95% CI -2.40 to -0.20) were significantly more effective than waitlist (WL). CBT was also associated with a higher decrease in PTSD symptoms than treatment as usual (TAU) (SMD -1.51; 95% CI -2.67 to -0.36). For all other interventions, the difference with WL and TAU was not significant. CBT and EMDR ranked best according to the mean surface under the cumulative ranking. Regarding acceptability, no intervention had less dropouts than inactive interventions.

CONCLUSION

CBT and EMDR appeared to have the greatest effects in reducing PTSD symptoms in asylum seekers and refugees. This evidence should be considered in guidelines and implementation packages to facilitate dissemination and uptake in refugee settings.

Methods for managing miscarriage: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Miscarriage, defined as the spontaneous loss of a pregnancy before 24 weeks' gestation, is common with approximately 25% of women experiencing a miscarriage in their lifetime. An estimated 15% of pregnancies end in miscarriage. Miscarriage can lead to serious morbidity, including haemorrhage, infection, and even death, particularly in settings without adequate healthcare provision. Early miscarriages occur during the first 14 weeks of pregnancy, and can be managed expectantly, medically or surgically. However, there is uncertainty about the relative effectiveness and risks of each option.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the relative effectiveness and safety profiles for the different management methods for early miscarriage, and to provide rankings of the available methods according to their effectiveness, safety, and side-effect profile using a network meta-analysis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register (9 February 2021), ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (12 February 2021), and reference lists of retrieved studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all randomised controlled trials assessing the effectiveness or safety of methods for miscarriage management. Early miscarriage was defined as less than or equal to 14 weeks of gestation, and included missed and incomplete miscarriage. Management of late miscarriages after 14 weeks of gestation (often referred to as intrauterine fetal deaths) was not eligible for inclusion in the review. Cluster- and quasi-randomised trials were eligible for inclusion. Randomised trials published only as abstracts were eligible if sufficient information could be retrieved. We excluded non-randomised trials.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

At least three review authors independently assessed the trials for inclusion and risk of bias, extracted data and checked them for accuracy. We estimated the relative effects and rankings for the primary outcomes of complete miscarriage and composite outcome of death or serious complications. The certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE. Relative effects for the primary outcomes are reported subgrouped by the type of miscarriage (incomplete and missed miscarriage). We also performed pairwise meta-analyses and network meta-analysis to determine the relative effects and rankings of all available methods.

MAIN RESULTS

Our network meta-analysis included 78 randomised trials involving 17,795 women from 37 countries. Most trials (71/78) were conducted in hospital settings and included women with missed or incomplete miscarriage. Across 158 trial arms, the following methods were used: 51 trial arms (33%) used misoprostol; 50 (32%) used suction aspiration; 26 (16%) used expectant management or placebo; 17 (11%) used dilatation and curettage; 11 (6%) used mifepristone plus misoprostol; and three (2%) used suction aspiration plus cervical preparation. Of these 78 studies, 71 (90%) contributed data in a usable form for meta-analysis. Complete miscarriage Based on the relative effects from the network meta-analysis of 59 trials (12,591 women), we found that five methods may be more effective than expectant management or placebo for achieving a complete miscarriage: · suction aspiration after cervical preparation (risk ratio (RR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41 to 3.20, low-certainty evidence), · dilatation and curettage (RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.75, low-certainty evidence), · suction aspiration (RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.62, low-certainty evidence), · mifepristone plus misoprostol (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.66, moderate-certainty evidence), · misoprostol (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.46, low-certainty evidence). The highest ranked surgical method was suction aspiration after cervical preparation. The highest ranked non-surgical treatment was mifepristone plus misoprostol. All surgical methods were ranked higher than medical methods, which in turn ranked above expectant management or placebo. Composite outcome of death and serious complications Based on the relative effects from the network meta-analysis of 35 trials (8161 women), we found that four methods with available data were compatible with a wide range of treatment effects compared with expectant management or placebo: · dilatation and curettage (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.17 to 1.06, low-certainty evidence), · suction aspiration (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.32, low-certainty evidence), · misoprostol (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.15, low-certainty evidence), · mifepristone plus misoprostol (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.84, low-certainty evidence). Importantly, no deaths were reported in these studies, thus this composite outcome was entirely composed of serious complications, including blood transfusions, uterine perforations, hysterectomies, and intensive care unit admissions. Expectant management and placebo ranked the lowest when compared with alternative treatment interventions. Subgroup analyses by type of miscarriage (missed or incomplete) agreed with the overall analysis in that surgical methods were the most effective treatment, followed by medical methods and then expectant management or placebo, but there are possible subgroup differences in the effectiveness of the available methods.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on relative effects from the network meta-analysis, all surgical and medical methods for managing a miscarriage may be more effective than expectant management or placebo. Surgical methods were ranked highest for managing a miscarriage, followed by medical methods, which in turn ranked above expectant management or placebo. Expectant management or placebo had the highest chance of serious complications, including the need for unplanned or emergency surgery. A subgroup analysis showed that surgical and medical methods may be more beneficial in women with missed miscarriage compared to women with incomplete miscarriage. Since type of miscarriage (missed and incomplete) appears to be a source of inconsistency and heterogeneity within these data, we acknowledge that the main network meta-analysis may be unreliable. However, we plan to explore this further in future updates and consider the primary analysis as separate networks for missed and incomplete miscarriage.

Comparative efficacy and acceptability of neuromodulation procedures in the treatment of treatment-resistant depression: a network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Nearly half of the patients with depression experience suboptimal benefits from antidepressants. Neuromodulation therapies, a kind of technology that can regulate neuronal firing activity by electrical or magnetic stimulation, were introduced to improve this situation. However, the results from clinical trials have been inconsistent.

METHODS

We followed the extension of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement to perform this network meta-analysis (NMA). The results were evaluated by relative risk (RR) for the response, remission, and discontinuation rates.

RESULTS

In total, 49 trials with 2,941 patients were included in this study. Bilateral theta burst stimulation (TBS, RR 5.00, 95% CI 1.11-22.44), priming transcranial magnetic stimulation (pTMS, RR 2.97, 95% CI 1.20-7.39), low-frequency right repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) (LFR-rTMS, RR 2.62, 95% CI 1.56-4.39), high-frequency left repetitive TMS (HFL-rTMS, RR 2.18, 95% CI 1.52-3.13), and bilateral repetitive TMS (BL-rTMS, RR 3.08, 95% CI 1.78-5.31) were demonstrated to have higher response rates than sham control. BL-rTMS (RR 3.12, 95% CI 1.06-9.09) was found to have a higher response rate than deep brain stimulation in this NMA. All measures had the non-inferiority acceptability than the sham-control. BL-rTMS was more acceptable than bitemporal ECT (BT-ECT, RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.03-0.89), while pTMS was more acceptable than BT-ECT (RR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.55), HFL-rTMS (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12-0.93), and deep TMS (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.02-0.96).

CONCLUSION

Besides electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), rTMS, priming TMS, and bilateral TBS proved effective for patients with treatment-resistant depression (TRD). BL-rTMS showed high efficacy and acceptability, and bilateral TBS had the potential to be the most efficacious neuromodulation measures.

Non-pharmacological interventions for older adults with depressive symptoms: a network meta-analysis of 35 randomized controlled trials

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions for seniors with depressive symptoms.Methods: A comprehensive literature search was performed. We conducted network meta-analysis in two ways, intervention classes (psychosocial, psychotherapy, physical activity, combined, treatment as usual) and individual intervention (11 categories). Whenever included studies used different scales, the different instruments were converted to the units of the scale most frequently used (the Geriatric Depression Scale), such that the effect size was reported as a mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence interval (CI). The risk of bias of RCTs included in this review was assessed according to the Cochrane Handbook. Bayesian NMA was conducted using R-3.4.0 software.Results: A total of 35 RCTs with 3,797 enrolled patients were included. Compared to conventional treatment, physical activity and psychotherapy resulted in significant improvements in depressive symptoms (MD: 2.25, 95%CrI: 0.99-3.56; SUCRA = 86.07%; MD: 1.75, 95% CrI: 0.90-2.64; SUCRA = 66.44%, respectively). Similar results were obtained for music (MD: 2.6; 95% CrI: 0.84-4.35;SUCRA = 80.53%), life review (MD:1.92; 95% CrI:0.71-3.14; SUCRA = 65.62%), cognitive behavioral therapy (MD: 1.27; 95% CrI: 0.23-2.38; SUCRA = 45.4%), aerobic (MD: 1.84; 95% CrI: 0.39-3.36; SUCRA = 63%) and resistance training (MD: 1.72; 95% CrI: 0.06-3.42; SUCRA = 59.24%). Network meta-regression showed that there were no statistically significant subgroup effects.Conclusions: Physical activity and psychotherapy demonstrated statistically significant superiority over conventional treatment. Music and life review therapy proved the most promising individual interventions. However, conclusions are limited by the lack of sufficient sample size and consensus regarding intervention categories and so an adequately powered study is necessary to consolidate these findings.

Maintenance Treatment With Long-Acting Injectable Antipsychotics for People With Nonaffective Psychoses: A Network Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study compared relapse prevention and acceptability of long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics in the maintenance treatment of adults with nonaffective psychoses.

METHODS

The authors searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, CENTRAL, and online registers for randomized controlled trials published until June 2020. Relative risks and standardized mean differences were pooled using random-effects pairwise and network meta-analysis. The primary outcomes were relapse rate and all-cause discontinuation ("acceptability"). The quality of included studies was rated with the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and the certainty of pooled estimates was measured with GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation).

RESULTS

Of 86 eligible trials, 78 (N=11,505) were included in the meta-analysis. Regarding relapse prevention, most of the 12 LAIs included outperformed placebo. The largest point estimates and best rankings of LAIs compared with placebo were found for paliperidone (3-month formulation) and aripiprazole. Moderate to high GRADE certainty for superior relapse prevention compared with placebo was also found for (in descending ranking order) risperidone, pipothiazine, olanzapine, and paliperidone (1-month formulation). In head-to-head comparisons of LAIs, only haloperidol was inferior to aripiprazole, fluphenazine, and paliperidone. For acceptability, most LAIs outperformed placebo, with moderate to high GRADE certainty for (in descending ranking order) zuclopenthixol, aripiprazole, paliperidone (3-month formulation), olanzapine, flupenthixol, fluphenazine, and paliperidone (1-month formulation). In head-to-head comparisons, only LAI aripiprazole had superior acceptability to other LAIs (bromperidol, fluphenazine, paliperidone [1-month formulation], pipothiazine, and risperidone).

CONCLUSIONS

LAI formulations of paliperidone (3-month formulation), aripiprazole, olanzapine, and paliperidone (1-month formulation) showed the highest effect sizes and certainty of evidence for both relapse prevention and acceptability. Results from this network meta-analysis should inform frontline clinicians and guidelines.

Role of progesterone, cerclage and pessary in preventing preterm birth in twin pregnancies: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the role of progesterone, pessary and cervical cerclage in reducing the risk of (preterm birth) PTB in twin pregnancies and compare these interventions using pairwise and network meta-analysis.

STUDY DESIGN

Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases were explored. The inclusion criteria were studies in which twin pregnancies were randomized to an intervention for the prevention of PTB (any type of progesterone, cervical cerclage, cervical pessary, or any combination of these) or to a control group (e.g. placebo or treatment as usual). Interventions of interest were either progesterone [vaginal or oral natural progesterone or intramuscular 17a-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC)], cerclage (McDonald or Shirodkar), or cervical pessary. The primary outcome was PTB < 34 weeks of gestation. Both primary and secondary outcomes were explored in an unselected population of twin pregnancies and in women at higher risk of PTB (defined as those with cervical length <25 mm). Random-effect head-to-head and a multiple-treatment meta-analyses were used to analyze the data and results expressed as risk ratios.

RESULTS

26 studies were included in the meta-analysis. When considering an unselected population of twin pregnancies, vaginal progesterone, intra-muscular17-OHPC or pessary did not reduce the risk of PTB < 34 weeks of gestation (all p > 0.05). When stratifying the analysis for spontaneous PTB, neither pessary, vaginal or intramuscular 17-OHPC were associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PTB compared to controls (all p > 0.05), while there was no study on cerclage which explored this outcome in an unselected population of twin pregnancies. When considering twin pregnancies with short cervical length (≤25 mm), there was no contribution of either pessary, vaginal progesterone, intra-muscular 17-OHPC or cerclage in reducing the risk of overall PTB < 34 weeks of gestation.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical pessary, progesterone and cerclage do not show a significant effect in reducing the rate of PTB or perinatal morbidity in twins, either when these interventions are applied to an unselected population of twins or in pregnancies with a short cervix.

Systemic pharmacological treatments for chronic plaque psoriasis: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis is an immune-mediated disease for which some people have a genetic predisposition. The condition manifests in inflammatory effects on either the skin or joints, or both, and it has a major impact on quality of life. Although there is currently no cure for psoriasis, various treatment strategies allow sustained control of disease signs and symptoms. Several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have compared the efficacy of the different systemic treatments in psoriasis against placebo. However, the relative benefit of these treatments remains unclear due to the limited number of trials comparing them directly head-to-head, which is why we chose to conduct a network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the efficacy and safety of non-biological systemic agents, small molecules, and biologics for people with moderate-to-severe psoriasis using a network meta-analysis, and to provide a ranking of these treatments according to their efficacy and safety.

SEARCH METHODS

For this living systematic review we updated our searches of the following databases monthly to September 2020: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and Embase. We searched two trials registers to the same date. We checked the reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews for further references to eligible RCTs.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of systemic treatments in adults (over 18 years of age) with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis whose skin had been clinically diagnosed with moderate-to-severe psoriasis, at any stage of treatment, in comparison to placebo or another active agent. The primary outcomes of this review were: the proportion of participants who achieved clear or almost clear skin, that is, at least Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 90 at induction phase (from 8 to 24 weeks after the randomisation), and the proportion of participants with serious adverse events (SAEs) at induction phase. We did not evaluate differences in specific adverse events.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Several groups of two review authors independently undertook study selection, data extraction, 'Risk of bias' assessment, and analyses. We synthesised the data using pair-wise and network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare the treatments of interest and rank them according to their effectiveness (as measured by the PASI 90 score) and acceptability (the inverse of serious adverse events). We assessed the certainty of the body of evidence from the NMA for the two primary outcomes and all comparisons, according to CINeMA, as either very low, low, moderate, or high. We contacted study authors when data were unclear or missing. We used the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) to infer on treatment hierarchy: 0% (treatment is the worst for effectiveness or safety) to 100% (treatment is the best for effectiveness or safety).

MAIN RESULTS

We included 158 studies (18 new studies for the update) in our review (57,831 randomised participants, 67.2% men, mainly recruited from hospitals). The overall average age was 45 years; the overall mean PASI score at baseline was 20 (range: 9.5 to 39). Most of these studies were placebo-controlled (58%), 30% were head-to-head studies, and 11% were multi-armed studies with both an active comparator and a placebo. We have assessed a total of 20 treatments. In all, 133 trials were multicentric (two to 231 centres). All but two of the outcomes included in this review were limited to the induction phase (assessment from 8 to 24 weeks after randomisation). We assessed many studies (53/158) as being at high risk of bias; 25 were at an unclear risk, and 80 at low risk. Most studies (123/158) declared funding by a pharmaceutical company, and 22 studies did not report their source of funding. Network meta-analysis at class level showed that all of the interventions (non-biological systemic agents, small molecules, and biological treatments) were significantly more effective than placebo in reaching PASI 90. At class level, in reaching PASI 90, the biologic treatments anti-IL17, anti-IL12/23, anti-IL23, and anti-TNF alpha were significantly more effective than the small molecules and the non-biological systemic agents. At drug level, infliximab, ixekizumab, secukinumab, brodalumab, risankizumab and guselkumab were significantly more effective in reaching PASI 90 than ustekinumab and three anti-TNF alpha agents: adalimumab, certolizumab, and etanercept. Ustekinumab and adalimumab were significantly more effective in reaching PASI 90 than etanercept; ustekinumab was more effective than certolizumab, and the clinical effectiveness of ustekinumab and adalimumab was similar. There was no significant difference between tofacitinib or apremilast and three non-biological drugs: fumaric acid esters (FAEs), ciclosporin and methotrexate. Network meta-analysis also showed that infliximab, ixekizumab, risankizumab, bimekizumab, secukinumab, guselkumab, and brodalumab outperformed other drugs when compared to placebo in reaching PASI 90. The clinical effectiveness of these drugs was similar, except for ixekizumab which had a better chance of reaching PASI 90 compared with secukinumab, guselkumab and brodalumab. The clinical effectiveness of these seven drugs was: infliximab (versus placebo): risk ratio (RR) 50.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 20.96 to 120.67, SUCRA = 93.6; high-certainty evidence; ixekizumab (versus placebo): RR 32.48, 95% CI 27.13 to 38.87; SUCRA = 90.5; high-certainty evidence; risankizumab (versus placebo): RR 28.76, 95% CI 23.96 to 34.54; SUCRA = 84.6; high-certainty evidence; bimekizumab (versus placebo): RR 58.64, 95% CI 3.72 to 923.86; SUCRA = 81.4; high-certainty evidence; secukinumab (versus placebo): RR 25.79, 95% CI 21.61 to 30.78; SUCRA = 76.2; high-certainty evidence; guselkumab (versus placebo): RR 25.52, 95% CI 21.25 to 30.64; SUCRA = 75; high-certainty evidence; and brodalumab (versus placebo): RR 23.55, 95% CI 19.48 to 28.48; SUCRA = 68.4; moderate-certainty evidence. Conservative interpretation is warranted for the results for bimekizumab (as well as mirikizumab, tyrosine kinase 2 inhibitor, acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters, and methotrexate), as these drugs, in the NMA, have been evaluated in few trials. We found no significant difference between any of the interventions and the placebo for the risk of SAEs. Nevertheless, the SAE analyses were based on a very low number of events with low to moderate certainty for all the comparisons. Thus, the results have to be viewed with caution and we cannot be sure of the ranking. For other efficacy outcomes (PASI 75 and Physician Global Assessment (PGA) 0/1) the results were similar to the results for PASI 90. Information on quality of life was often poorly reported and was absent for several of the interventions.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our review shows that compared to placebo, the biologics infliximab, ixekizumab, risankizumab, bimekizumab, secukinumab, guselkumab and brodalumab were the most effective treatments for achieving PASI 90 in people with moderate-to-severe psoriasis on the basis of moderate- to high-certainty evidence. This NMA evidence is limited to induction therapy (outcomes were measured from 8 to 24 weeks after randomisation) and is not sufficient for evaluation of longer-term outcomes in this chronic disease. Moreover, we found low numbers of studies for some of the interventions, and the young age (mean age of 45 years) and high level of disease severity (PASI 20 at baseline) may not be typical of patients seen in daily clinical practice. Another major concern is that short-term trials provide scanty and sometimes poorly-reported safety data and thus do not provide useful evidence to create a reliable risk profile of treatments. We found no significant difference in the assessed interventions and placebo in terms of SAEs, and the evidence for all the interventions was of low to moderate quality. In order to provide long-term information on the safety of the treatments included in this review, it will also be necessary to evaluate non-randomised studies and postmarketing reports released from regulatory agencies. In terms of future research, randomised trials directly comparing active agents are necessary once high-quality evidence of benefit against placebo is established, including head-to-head trials amongst and between non-biological systemic agents and small molecules, and between biological agents (anti-IL17 versus anti-IL23, anti-IL23 versus anti-IL12/23, anti-TNF alpha versus anti-IL12/23). Future trials should also undertake systematic subgroup analyses (e.g. assessing biological-naïve participants, baseline psoriasis severity, presence of psoriatic arthritis, etc.). Finally, outcome measure harmonisation is needed in psoriasis trials, and researchers should look at the medium- and long-term benefit and safety of the interventions and the comparative safety of different agents. Editorial note: This is a living systematic review. Living systematic reviews offer a new approach to review updating, in which the review is continually updated, incorporating relevant new evidence as it becomes available. Please refer to the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for the current status of this review.

Effectiveness of treatments for acute and subacute mechanical non-specific low back pain: a systematic review with network meta-analysis

Objective

To assess the effectiveness of interventions for acute and subacute non-specific low back pain (NS-LBP) based on pain and disability outcomes.

Design

A systematic review of the literature with network meta-analysis.

Data sources

Medline, Embase and CENTRAL databases were searched from inception until 17 October 2020.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies

Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) involving adults with NS-LBP who experienced pain for less than 6 weeks (acute) or between 6 and 12 weeks (subacute).

Results

Forty-six RCTs (n=8765) were included; risk of bias was low in 9 trials (19.6%), unclear in 20 (43.5%), and high in 17 (36.9%). At immediate-term follow-up, for pain decrease, the most efficacious treatments against an inert therapy were: exercise (standardised mean difference (SMD) −1.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) −2.41 to –0.40), heat wrap (SMD −1.38; 95% CI −2.60 to –0.17), opioids (SMD −0.86; 95% CI −1.62 to –0.10), manual therapy (SMD −0.72; 95% CI −1.40 to –0.04) and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (SMD −0.53; 95% CI −0.97 to –0.09). Similar findings were confirmed for disability reduction in non-pharmacological and pharmacological networks, including muscle relaxants (SMD -0.24; 95% CI -0.43 to -0.04). Mild or moderate adverse events were reported in the opioids (65.7%), NSAIDs (54.3%) and steroids (46.9%) trial arms.

Conclusion

With uncertainty of evidence, NS-LBP should be managed with non-pharmacological treatments which seem to mitigate pain and disability at immediate-term. Among pharmacological interventions, NSAIDs and muscle relaxants appear to offer the best harm–benefit balance.

Effectiveness of intrapartum fetal surveillance to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND:

Cesarean delivery is the most common surgical procedure worldwide. Intrapartum fetal surveillance is routinely offered to improve neonatal outcomes, but the effects of different methods on the risk of emergency cesarean deliveries remains uncertain. We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of different types of fetal surveillance.

METHODS:

We searched MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL until June 1, 2020, for randomized trials evaluating any intrapartum fetal surveillance method. We performed a network meta-analysis within a frequentist framework. We assessed the quality and network inconsistency of trials. We reported primarily on intrapartum emergency cesarean deliveries and other secondary maternal and neonatal outcomes using risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS:

We included 33 trials (118 863 patients) evaluating intermittent auscultation with Pinard stethoscope/handheld Doppler (IA), cardiotocography (CTG), computerized cardiotocography (cCTG), CTG with fetal scalp lactate (CTG-lactate), CTG with fetal scalp pH analysis (CTG-FBS), CTG with fetal pulse oximetry (FPO-CTG), CTG with fetal heart electrocardiogram (CTG-STAN) and their combinations. Intermittent auscultation reduced the risk of emergency cesarean deliveries compared with other types of surveillance (IA v. CTG: RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.97; IA v. CTG-FBS: RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.63–0.80; IA v.CTG-lactate: RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.64–0.92; IA v. FPO-CTG: RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65–0.87; IA v.FPO-CTG-FBS: RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.67–0.99; cCTG-FBS v. IA: RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04–1.42), except STAN-CTG-FBS (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.98–1.40). There was a similar reduction observed for emergency cesarean deliveries for fetal distress. None of the evaluated methods was associated with a reduced risk of neonatal acidemia, neonatal unit admissions, Apgar scores or perinatal death.

INTERPRETATION:

Compared with other types of fetal surveillance, intermittent auscultation seems to reduce emergency cesarean deliveries in labour without increasing adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes.

Indirect comparison between ferric carboxymaltose and oral iron replacement in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a network meta-analysis

Treatment of iron deficiency (ID) in patients with heart failure (HF) has improved symptoms, quality of life, exercise capacity and has reduced hospitalizations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses. Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) provided convincing results in this field, while oral iron supplementation failed. However, FCM and oral iron were compared to placebo, and a comparison between the two strategies is still lacking. We aimed to fill this gap of knowledge with an indirect comparison between them by means of a network meta-analysis of RCTs. Five studies measuring exercise capacity (i.e. 6-minute walking test) and quality of life (i.e. Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire) were eligible to be included in our review. Given the limitations of a network meta-analysis, our findings support the better efficacy of FCM than oral iron as regards exercise capacity, with a trend towards an improvement in quality of life, suggesting that FCM seems to be strategy of choice to correct ID in HF patients.

Comparative efficacy of interventions for reducing symptoms of depression in people with dementia: systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To describe the comparative efficacy of drug and non-drug interventions for reducing symptoms of depression in people with dementia who experience depression as a neuropsychiatric symptom of dementia or have a diagnosis of a major depressive disorder.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and grey literature between inception and 15 October 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Randomised trials comparing drug or non-drug interventions with usual care or any other intervention targeting symptoms of depression in people with dementia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pairs of reviewers screened studies, abstracted aggregate level data, and appraised risk of bias with the Cochrane risk of bias tool, which facilitated the derivation of standardised mean differences and back transformed mean differences (on the Cornell scale for depression in dementia) from bayesian random effects network meta-analyses and pairwise meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Of 22 138 citations screened, 256 studies (28 483 people with dementia) were included. Missing data posed the greatest risk to review findings. In the network meta-analysis of studies including people with dementia without a diagnosis of a major depressive disorder who were experiencing symptoms of depression (213 studies; 25 177 people with dementia; between study variance 0.23), seven interventions were associated with a greater reduction in symptoms of depression compared with usual care: cognitive stimulation (mean difference -2.93, 95% credible interval -4.35 to -1.52), cognitive stimulation combined with a cholinesterase inhibitor (-11.39, -18.38 to -3.93), massage and touch therapy (-9.03, -12.28 to -5.88), multidisciplinary care (-1.98, -3.80 to -0.16), occupational therapy (-2.59, -4.70 to -0.40), exercise combined with social interaction and cognitive stimulation (-12.37, -19.01 to -5.36), and reminiscence therapy (-2.30, -3.68 to -0.93). Except for massage and touch therapy, cognitive stimulation combined with a cholinesterase inhibitor, and cognitive stimulation combined with exercise and social interaction, which were more efficacious than some drug interventions, no statistically significant difference was found in the comparative efficacy of drug and non-drug interventions for reducing symptoms of depression in people with dementia without a diagnosis of a major depressive disorder. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity precluded network meta-analysis of studies comparing the efficacy of interventions specifically for reducing symptoms of depression in people with dementia and a major depressive disorder (22 studies; 1829 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review, non-drug interventions were found to be more efficacious than drug interventions for reducing symptoms of depression in people with dementia without a major depressive disorder.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017050130.

Comparative efficacy and acceptability of psychological interventions for the treatment of adult outpatients with anorexia nervosa: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

No consistent first-option psychological interventions for adult outpatients with anorexia nervosa emerges from guidelines. We aimed to compare stand-alone psychological interventions for adult outpatients with anorexia nervosa with a specific focus on body-mass index, eating disorder symptoms, and all-cause dropout rate.

METHODS

In this systematic review and network meta-analysis, we assessed randomised controlled trials about stand-alone pharmacological or non-pharmacological treatments of adult outpatients with anorexia nervosa, defined according to standardised criteria, with data for at least two timepoints relating to either body-mass index or global eating disorder psychopathology. We searched Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and PsychINFO for published and unpublished literature from inception until March 20, 2020. The primary outcomes were the change in body mass index and clinical symptoms, and the secondary outcome was all-cause dropout rate, which were all assessed for treatment as usual, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), Maudsley anorexia treatment for adults, family-based treatment, psychodynamic-oriented psychotherapies, a form of CBT targeting compulsive exercise, and cognitive remediation therapy followed by CBT. Global and local inconsistencies for the network meta-analysis were measured, and CINeMA was used to assess the confidence in evidence for primary outcomes. The protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42017064429).

FINDINGS

Of 14 003 studies assessed for their title and abstract, 16 (0·1%) randomised controlled trials for psychological treatments were included in the systematic review, of which 13 (0·1%) contributed to the network meta-analysis, with 1047 patients in total (of whom 1020 [97·4%] were female). None of the interventions outperformed treatment as usual in our primary outcomes, but the all-cause dropout rate was lower for CBT than for psychodynamic-oriented psychotherapies (OR 0·54, 95% CI 0·31-0·93). Heterogeneity or inconsistency emerged only for a few comparisons. Confidence in the evidence was low to very low.

INTERPRETATION

Compared with treatment as usual, specific psychological treatments for adult outpatients with anorexia nervosa can be associated with modest improvements in terms of clinical course and quality of life, but no reliable evidence supports clear superiority or inferiority of the specific treatments that are recommended by clinical guidelines internationally. Our analysis is based on the best data from existing clinical studies, but these findings should not be seen as definitive or universally applicable. There is an urgent need to fund new research to develop and improve therapies for adults with anorexia nervosa. Meanwhile, to better understand the effects of available treatments, participant-level data should be made freely accessible to researchers to eventually identify whether specific subgroups of patients are more likely to respond to specific treatments.

FUNDING

Flinders University, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre.

Cholinesterase inhibitors for vascular dementia and other vascular cognitive impairments: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) describes a broad spectrum of cognitive impairments caused by cerebrovascular disease, ranging from mild cognitive impairment to dementia. There are currently no pharmacological treatments recommended for improving either cognition or function in people with VCI. Three cholinesterase inhibitors (donepezil, galantamine, and rivastigmine) are licenced for the treatment of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. They are thought to work by compensating for reduced cholinergic neurotransmission, which is also a feature of VCI. Through pairwise comparisons with placebo and a network meta-analysis, we sought to determine whether these medications are effective in VCI and whether there are differences between them with regard to efficacy or adverse events.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To assess the efficacy and safety of cholinesterase inhibitors in the treatment of adults with vascular dementia and other VCI. (2) To compare the effects of different cholinesterase inhibitors on cognition and adverse events, using network meta-analysis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's register, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), Web of Science Core Collection (ISI Web of Science), LILACS (BIREME), ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform on 19 August 2020.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials in which donepezil, galantamine, or rivastigmine was compared with placebo or in which the drugs were compared with each other in adults with vascular dementia or other VCI (excluding cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL)). We included all drug doses and routes of administration.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently identified eligible trials, extracted data, assessed risk of bias, and applied the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. The primary outcomes were cognition, clinical global impression, function (performance of activities of daily living), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes were serious adverse events, incidence of development of new dementia, behavioural disturbance, carer burden, institutionalisation, quality of life and death. For the pairwise analyses, we pooled outcome data at similar time points using random-effects methods. We also performed a network meta-analysis using Bayesian methods.

MAIN RESULTS

We included eight trials (4373 participants) in the review. Three trials studied donepezil 5 mg or 10 mg daily (n= 2193); three trials studied rivastigmine at a maximum daily dose of 3 to 12 mg (n= 800); and two trials studied galantamine at a maximum daily dose of 16 to 24 mg (n= 1380). The trials included participants with possible or probable vascular dementia or cognitive impairment following stroke. Mean ages were between 72.2 and 73.9 years. All of the trials were at low or unclear risk of bias in all domains, and the evidence ranged from very low to high level of certainty. For cognition, the results showed that donepezil 5 mg improves cognition slightly, although the size of the effect is unlikely to be clinically important (mean difference (MD) -0.92 Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) points (range 0 to 70), 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.44 to -0.40; high-certainty evidence). Donepezil 10 mg (MD -2.21 ADAS-Cog points, 95% CI -3.07 to -1.35; moderate-certainty evidence) and galantamine 16 to 24 mg (MD -2.01 ADAS-Cog point, 95%CI -3.18 to -0.85; moderate-certainty evidence) probably also improve cognition, although the larger effect estimates still may not be clinically important. With low certainty, there may be little to no effect of rivastigmine 3 to 12 mg daily on cognition (MD 0.03 ADAS-Cog points, 95% CI -3.04 to 3.10; low-certainty evidence). Adverse events reported in the studies included nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhoea, dizziness, headache, and hypertension. The results showed that there was probably little to no difference between donepezil 5 mg and placebo in the number of adverse events (odds ratio (OR) 1.22, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.58; moderate-certainty evidence), but there were slightly more adverse events with donepezil 10 mg than with placebo (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.15; high-certainty evidence). The effect of rivastigmine 3 to 12 mg on adverse events was very uncertain (OR 3.21, 95% CI 0.36 to 28.88; very low-certainty evidence). Galantamine 16 to 24 mg is probably associated with a slight excess of adverse events over placebo (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.43; moderate-certainty evidence). In the network meta-analysis (NMA), we included cognition to represent benefit, and adverse events to represent harm. All drugs ranked above placebo for cognition and below placebo for adverse events. We found donepezil 10 mg to rank first in terms of benefit, but third in terms of harms, when considering the network estimates and quality of evidence. Galantamine was ranked second in terms of both benefit and harm. Rivastigmine had the lowest ranking of the cholinesterase inhibitors in both benefit and harm NMA estimates, but this may reflect possibly inadequate doses received by some trial participants and small trial sample sizes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found moderate- to high-certainty evidence that donepezil 5 mg, donepezil 10 mg, and galantamine have a slight beneficial effect on cognition in people with VCI, although the size of the change is unlikely to be clinically important. Donepezil 10 mg and galantamine 16 to 24 mg are probably associated with more adverse events than placebo. The evidence for rivastigmine was less certain. The data suggest that donepezil 10 mg has the greatest effect on cognition, but at the cost of adverse effects. The effect is modest, but in the absence of any other treatments, people living with VCI may still wish to consider the use of these agents. Further research into rivastigmine is needed, including the use of transdermal patches.

Community-based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people, stratified by frailty: a protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Maintaining independence is a primary goal of community health and care services for older people, but there is currently insufficient guidance about which services to implement. Therefore, we aim to synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of community-based complex interventions to sustain independence for older people, including the effect of frailty, and group interventions to identify the best configurations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA). We will include randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster RCTs of community-based complex interventions to sustain independence for older people living at home (mean age ≥65 years), compared with usual care or another complex intervention. We will search MEDLINE (1946 to September 2020), Embase (1947 to September 2020), CINAHL (1981 to September 2020), PsycINFO (1806 to September 2020), CENTRAL and clinical trial registries from inception to September 2020, without date/language restrictions, and scan included papers' reference lists. Main outcomes were: living at home, activities of daily living (basic/instrumental), home-care services usage, hospitalisation, care home admission, costs and cost effectiveness. Additional outcomes were: health status, depression, loneliness, falls and mortality. Interventions will be coded, summarised and grouped. An NMA using a multivariate random-effects model for each outcome separately will determine the relative effects of different complex interventions. For each outcome, we will produce summary effect estimates for each pair of treatments in the network, with 95% CI, ranking plots and measures, and the borrowing of strength statistic. Inconsistency will be examined using a 'design-by-treatment interaction' model. We will assess risk of bias (Cochrane tool V.2) and certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation for NMA approach.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This research will use aggregated, anonymised, published data. Findings will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidance. They will be disseminated to policy-makers, commissioners and providers, and via conferences and scientific journals.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019162195.

Unveiling the comparative efficacy and tolerability of comprehensive treatments for migraine: A protocol of systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Migraine is a chronic paroxysmal incapacitating neurological disorder, which endangers the health of human worldwide ranking as the third most prevalent medical condition. There are no comprehensive estimates of treatments for migraine. We will conduct this systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) to synthesis quantitative and comparative evidence on the efficacy and tolerability of all the known pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for migraine.

METHOD

We will perform the systematic electronic search of the literature utilizing MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health (CINAHL), and PsycINFO. We will only include randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of high quality which appraise the efficacy or safety of any potential pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of patients with migraine. The traditional pairwise meta-analyses will be performed to anticipate the heterogeneities and publication bias and the NMA will be conducted within a Bayesian hierarchical model framework to obtain estimates for all valuable treatments for migraine. The entire heterogeneity will be quantified by Q statistic and I2 index. Other analyses included sensitivity analyses, meta-regression, and subgroup analyses will also be conducted. The whole process will be conducted using in R-3.6.0 software.

RESULTS

This study will obtain the efficacy and tolerability of all potential treatments for migraine, aiming at providing consolidated evidence to help make the best choice of interventions. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

DISCUSSION

This Bayesian network meta-analysis may be the first attempt to quantitatively synthesize the efficacy and tolerability of all potential treatments for migraine. And this method can ensure us to fully utilize both the direct and indirect evidence as well as gain the comparative estimates displayed in the derived hierarchies. Besides, we have registered this protocol on the international prospective register of systematic review (PROSPERO) (CRD42020157278).

Dexamethasone versus betamethasone for preterm birth: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the comparative clinical effectiveness and safety of dexamethasone vs betamethasone for preterm birth.

DATA SOURCES

The sources searched were MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, LILACS, ClinicalTrials.gov, and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform without language restrictions until October 2019 in addition to the reference lists of included studies. Field experts were also contacted.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing any corticosteroids against each other or against placebo at any dose for preterm birth were included in the study.

METHODS

Three researchers independently selected and extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies by using Early Review Organizing Software and Covidence software. Random-effects pairwise meta-analysis and Bayesian network meta-analysis were performed. The primary outcomes were chorioamnionitis, endometritis or puerperal sepsis, neonatal death, respiratory distress syndrome, and neurodevelopmental disability.

RESULTS

A total of 45 trials (11,227 women and 11,878 infants) were included in the study. No clinical or statistical difference was found between dexamethasone and betamethasone in neonatal death (odds ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.84; moderate-certainty evidence), neurodevelopmental disability (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.33; moderate-certainty evidence), intraventricular hemorrhage (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.78); low-certainty evidence), or birthweight (+5.29 g; 95% confidence interval, -49.79 to 58.97; high-certainty evidence). There was no statistically significant difference, but a potentially clinically important effect was found between dexamethasone and betamethasone in chorioamnionitis (odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.06; moderate-certainty evidence), fetal death (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-2.41; low-certainty evidence), puerperal sepsis (odds ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-6.06; low-certainty evidence), and respiratory distress syndrome (odds ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-2.11; moderate-certainty evidence). Meta-regression, subgroup, and sensitivity analyses did not reveal important changes regarding the main analysis.

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids have proven effective for most neonatal and child-relevant outcomes compared with placebo or no treatment for women at risk of preterm birth. No important difference was found on neonatal death, neurodevelopmental disability, intraventricular hemorrhage, and birthweight between corticosteroids, and there was no statistically significant difference, but a potentially important difference was found in chorioamnionitis, fetal death, endometritis or puerperal sepsis, and respiratory distress syndrome. Further research is warranted to improve the certainty of evidence and inform health policies.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter protein-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists for type 2 diabetes: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists in patients with type 2 diabetes at varying cardiovascular and renal risk.

DESIGN

Network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL up to 11 August 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Randomised controlled trials comparing SGLT-2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists with placebo, standard care, or other glucose lowering treatment in adults with type 2 diabetes with follow up of 24 weeks or longer. Studies were screened independently by two reviewers for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Frequentist random effects network meta-analysis was carried out and GRADE (grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation) used to assess evidence certainty. Results included estimated absolute effects of treatment per 1000 patients treated for five years for patients at very low risk (no cardiovascular risk factors), low risk (three or more cardiovascular risk factors), moderate risk (cardiovascular disease), high risk (chronic kidney disease), and very high risk (cardiovascular disease and kidney disease). A guideline panel provided oversight of the systematic review.

RESULTS

764 trials including 421 346 patients proved eligible. All results refer to the addition of SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists to existing diabetes treatment. Both classes of drugs lowered all cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and kidney failure (high certainty evidence). Notable differences were found between the two agents: SGLT-2 inhibitors reduced admission to hospital for heart failure more than GLP-1 receptor agonists, and GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced non-fatal stroke more than SGLT-2 inhibitors (which appeared to have no effect). SGLT-2 inhibitors caused genital infection (high certainty), whereas GLP-1 receptor agonists might cause severe gastrointestinal events (low certainty). Low certainty evidence suggested that SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists might lower body weight. Little or no evidence was found for the effect of SGLT-2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists on limb amputation, blindness, eye disease, neuropathic pain, or health related quality of life. The absolute benefits of these drugs vary substantially across patients from low to very high risk of cardiovascular and renal outcomes (eg, SGLT-2 inhibitors resulted in 3 to 40 fewer deaths in 1000 patients over five years; see interactive decision support tool (https://magicevidence.org/match-it/200820dist/#!/) for all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with type 2 diabetes, SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced cardiovascular and renal outcomes, with some differences in benefits and harms. Absolute benefits are determined by individual risk profiles of patients, with clear implications for clinical practice, as reflected in the BMJ Rapid Recommendations directly informed by this systematic review.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019153180.

Overall assessment of antibiotic substitutes for pigs: a set of meta-analyses

Background

Antibiotic growth promoters are widely used to improve weight gain. However, the abuse of antibiotics can have many negative effects on people. Developing alternatives to antibiotics is an urgent need in livestock production. We aimed to perform a meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) to investigate the effects of feed additives as potential antibiotic substitutes (ASs) on bacteriostasis, growth performance, intestinal morphology and immunity. Furthermore, the primary, secondary, and tertiary ASs were defined by comparing their results with the results of antibiotics.

Results

Among 16,309 identified studies, 37 were summarized to study the bacteriostasis effects of feed additives, and 89 were included in the meta-analysis and NMA (10,228 pigs). We summarized 268 associations of 57 interventions with 32 bacteria. The order of bacteriostasis effects was as follows: antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) ≈ antibiotics>organic acids>plant extracts>oligosaccharides. We detected associations of 11 feed additives and 11 outcomes. Compared with a basal diet, plant extract, AMPs, probiotics, microelements, organic acids, bacteriophages, lysozyme, zymin, and oligosaccharides significantly improved growth performance (P < 0.05); organic acids, probiotics, microelements, lysozyme, and AMPs remarkably increased the villus height:crypt depth ratio (V/C) (P < 0.05); and plant extracts, zymin, microelements, probiotics, and organic acids notably improved immunity (P < 0.05). The optimal AMP, bacteriophage, lysozyme, microelements, oligosaccharides, organic acids, plants, plant extracts, probiotics, and zymin doses were 0.100%, 0.150%, 0.012%, 0.010%, 0.050%, 0.750%, 0.20%, 0.040%, 0.180%, and 0.100%, respectively. Compared with antibiotics, all investigated feed additives exhibited no significant difference in effects on growth performance, IgG, and diarrhoea index/rate (P > 0.05); AMPs and microelements significantly increased V/C (P < 0.05); and zymin significantly improved lymphocyte levels (P < 0.05). Furthermore, linear weighting sum models were used to comprehensively estimate the overall impact of each feed additive on pig growth and health.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that AMPs and plant extracts can be used as primary ASs for weaned piglets and growing pigs, respectively. Bacteriophages, zymin, plants, probiotics, oligosaccharides, lysozyme, and microelements can be regarded as secondary ASs. Nucleotides and organic acids can be considered as tertiary ASs. Future studies should further assess the alternative effects of combinational feed additives.

Systematic review and network meta-analysis: efficacy of drugs for functional dyspepsia

BACKGROUND

Functional dyspepsia (FD) is a relapsing and remitting condition affecting between 5% and 10% of people. Efficacious therapies are available, but their relative efficacy is unknown.

AIM

To perform a systematic review with network meta-analysis to resolve this uncertainty.

METHODS

We searched the medical literature through July 2020 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) assessing efficacy of drugs for adults with FD, compared with each other, or placebo. Trials reported a dichotomous assessment of symptom status after completion of therapy. We pooled data using a random effects model. Efficacy was reported as a pooled relative risk (RR) of remaining symptomatic with a 95% confidence interval (CI) to summarise efficacy of each comparison tested. Relative ranking was assessed with surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probabilities.

RESULTS

We identified 71 eligible RCTs (19 243 participants). Tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) were ranked second for efficacy (RR of remaining symptomatic = 0.71; 95% CI 0.58-0.87, SUCRA 0.87), and first when only low risk of bias trials were included. Most RCTs that used TCAs recruited patients who were refractory to other drugs included in the network. Although sulpiride or levosulpiride were ranked first for efficacy (RR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.36-0.69, SUCRA 0.99), trial quality was low and only 86 patients received active therapy. TCAs were more likely to cause adverse events than placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

TCAs, histamine-₂ receptor antagonists, standard- and low-dose proton pump inhibitors, sulpiride or levosulpiride, itopride and acotiamide were all more efficacious than placebo for FD.

The long-term outcomes of different grafts in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: a network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To compare the long-term prognosis of patients with different types of grafts used in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR).

METHODS

PubMed, Ovid (MEDLINE and Embase) and the Cochrane library were searched up to Feb 2020. Eligible studies about different grafts in ACLR were searched for identifying the evidence comparing the long-term (mean or median follow-up time or the general description of the follow-up time≥2 years) knee outcomes of different grafts for ACLR. The final included articles and evaluation criteria were confirmed by the authors and senior clinicians to ensure the validity of the included articles. Lysholm score, the results of pivot shift test, Lachman test and International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) evaluation were selected as prognostic indicators. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 30 articles were included in our network meta-analysis. Finally, we found that artificial graft or augmentation can provide the not bad Lysholm score but the worse result of IKDC evaluation for patients with ACLR compared with other types of grafts. Double-bundle hamstring autograft can provide a good Lysholm score as well as lower positive rate of pivot shift test and Lachman test. Patellar tendon autograft can provide the better result of IKDC evaluation. The patients with allogeneic tendon graft may get the higher positive rate of pivot shift test and Lachman test. Patients with single-bundle hamstring autograft may get the ordinary result of IKDC evaluation and Lysholm score.

CONCLUSIONS

Double-bundle hamstring autograft may be a better choice because of more items of good prognosis for the patients with ACLR. Patellar tendon autograft is a right choice which only shows the disadvantage on the Lysholm score. The prognosis of patients with single-bundle hamstring autograft is ordinary. The effect of artificial graft or augmentation needs more evidence to prove. Allogeneic tendon graft is not a better choice when compared with other grafts referred in our network meta-analysis.

TRANSLATIONAL POTENTIAL STATEMENT

In this study, we made a comprehensive comparison of the grafts commonly used in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. The evidence presented in this study provides a reference for clinicians to select a suitable anterior cruciate ligament graft.

Incretin mimetics and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors as monotherapy or add-on to metformin for treatment of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Although there are many different methods of treating type 2 diabetes (T2D), it is still difficult to draw coincident conclusions concerning the efficacy and safety of different classes of new drugs, and the recommendation level of them has still kept uncertain as second anti-diabetic agents. Therefore, the aim of this study was to summarize evidence on the efficacy and safety of DPP-4is, GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is as monotherapy or add-on to metformin (Met) for treatment of T2D.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov for relevant articles in keeping with established methods using terms associated with anti-diabetic agents up to February, 2020, with no start date restriction. Weighted mean difference and risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated within traditional and network meta-analysis. Primary outcomes were the mean change in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) change and the frequency of hypoglycemic events from baseline after 12 weeks of treatment.

RESULTS

In total, 64 eligible studies comprising 37,780 patients and 7 treatment strategies were included. The results of primary outcomes showed that GLP-1RAs were significantly more effective than DPP-4is or SGLT-2is in reducing HbA1c when add-on to Met. For FPG, both GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is significantly reduced FPG compared with DPP-4is whether add-on to Met or not. For hypoglycemia, monotherapy has a lower risk than combination therapy except for SGLT-2is. Ranking probability analysis indicated that GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is, respectively, reduced HbA1c and FPG most when add-on to Met. Meanwhile, GLP-1RAs took the lowest risk to induce the hypoglycemia, whereas GLP-1RAs plus Met the highest.

CONCLUSIONS

Both GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is have their own advantages in efficacy and safety. Monotherapy is beneficial for reducing the risk of hypoglycemia. The recommendation should be a patient-centered approach when selecting treatment choices.

Which psychotherapy is effective in panic disorder? And which delivery formats are supported by the evidence? Study protocol for two systematic reviews and network meta-analyses

INTRODUCTION

Panic disorder is among the most prevalent anxiety diseases. Although psychotherapy is recommended as first-line treatment for panic disorder, little is known about the relative efficacy of different types of psychotherapies. Moreover, there is little evidence concerning the effectiveness of different formats of major psychotherapeutic types, such as cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT). In this protocol, we present an overarching project consisting of two systematic reviews and network meta-analyses (NMA) to shed light on which psychotherapy (NMA-1), and specifically, which CBT delivery format (NMA-2) should be considered most effective for adults suffering from panic disorder with or without agoraphobia.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

Starting from a common pool of data, we will conduct two systematic reviews and NMA of randomised controlled trials examining panic disorder. A comprehensive search will be performed in electronic databases MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials-CENTRAL from database inception to 1 January 2021 to identify relevant studies. A systematic approach to searching, screening, reviewing and data extraction will be applied. Titles, abstract and-whenever necessary-full texts will be examined independently by at least two reviewers. The quality of the included studies will be assessed using the revised Cochrane risk of bias tool V.2. The primary efficacy outcome will be anxiety symptoms at study endpoint. The primary acceptability outcome will be all-cause discontinuation, as measured by the proportion of patients who had discontinued treatment for any reason at endpoint. Data will be pooled using a random-effects model. Pairwise and NMA will be conducted.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethical approval is necessary for these two studies, as there will be no collection of primary data. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at national and international conferences and meetings.

Management of Frailty: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE

To analyze and determine the comparative effectiveness of interventions targeting frailty prevention or treatment on frailty as a primary outcome and quality of life, cognition, depression, and adverse events as secondary outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA).

METHODS

Data sources-Relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were identified by a systematic search of several electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and AMED. Duplicate title and abstract and full-text screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were performed. Data extraction-All RCTs examining frailty interventions aimed to decrease frailty were included. Comparators were standard care, placebo, or another intervention. Data synthesis-We performed both standard pairwise meta-analysis and Bayesian NMA. Dichotomous outcome data were pooled using the odds ratio effect size, whereas continuous outcome data were pooled using the standardized mean difference (SMD) effect size. Interventions were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) for each outcome. The quality of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

A total of 66 RCTs were included after screening of 7090 citations and 749 full-text articles. NMA of frailty outcome (including 21 RCTs, 5262 participants, and 8 interventions) suggested that the physical activity intervention, when compared to placebo and standard care, was associated with reductions in frailty (SMD -0.92, 95% confidence interval -1.55, -0.29). According to SUCRA, physical activity intervention and physical activity plus nutritional supplementation were probably the most effective intervention (100% and 71% likelihood, respectively) to reduce frailty. Physical activity was probably the most effective or the second most effective interventions for all included outcomes.

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

Physical activity is one of the most effective frailty interventions. The quality of evidence of the current review is low and very low. More robust RCTs are needed to increase the confidence of our NMA results and the quality of evidence.

Evidence inconsistency degrees of freedom in Bayesian network meta-analysis

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a popular tool to synthesize direct and indirect evidence for simultaneously comparing multiple treatments, while evidence inconsistency greatly threatens its validity. One may use the inconsistency degrees of freedom (ICDF) to assess the potential that an NMA might suffer from inconsistency. Multi-arm studies provide intrinsically consistent evidence and complicate the ICDF's calculation; they commonly appear in NMAs. The existing ICDF measure may not feasibly handle multi-arm studies. Motivated from the effective numbers of parameters of Bayesian hierarchical models, we propose new ICDF measures in generic NMAs that may contain multi-arm studies. Under the fixed- or random-effects setting, the new ICDF measure is the difference between the effective numbers of parameters of the consistency and inconsistency NMA models. We used artificial NMAs created based on an illustrative example and 39 empirical NMAs to evaluate the performance of the existing and new measures. In NMAs with two-arm studies only, the proposed ICDF measure under the fixed-effects setting was nearly the same with the existing measure. Among the empirical NMAs, 27 (69%) contained at least one multi-arm study. The existing measure was not applicable to them, while the proposed measures led to interpretable ICDFs in all NMAs.

Interventions for convergence insufficiency: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Convergence insufficiency is a common binocular vision disorder in which the eyes have a strong tendency to drift outward (exophoria) with difficulty turning the eyes inward when reading or doing close work.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the comparative effectiveness and relative ranking of non-surgical interventions for convergence insufficiency through a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed and three trials registers up to 20 September 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining any form of non-surgical intervention versus placebo, no treatment, sham treatment, or other non-surgical interventions. Participants were children and adults with symptomatic convergence insufficiency.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We followed standard Cochrane methodology. We performed NMAs separately for children and adults.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 12 trials (six in children and six in adults) with a total of 1289 participants. Trials evaluated seven interventions: 1) office-based vergence/accommodative therapy with home reinforcement; 2) home-based pencil/target push-ups; 3) home-based computer vergence/accommodative therapy; 4) office-based vergence/accommodative therapy alone; 5) placebo vergence/accommodative therapy or other placebo intervention; 6) prism reading glasses; and 7) placebo reading glasses. Six RCTs in the pediatric population randomized 968 participants. Of these, the Convergence Insufficiency Treatment Trial (CITT) Investigator Group completed four RCTs with 737 participants. All four CITT RCTs were rated at low risk of bias. Diagnostic criteria and outcome measures were identical or similar among these trials. The four CITT RCTs contributed data to the pediatric NMA, incorporating interventions 1, 2, 3 and 5. When treatment success was defined by a composite outcome requiring both clinical measures of convergence to be normal, and also show a pre-specified magnitude of improvement, we found high-certainty evidence that office-based vergence/accommodative therapy with home reinforcement increases the chance of a successful outcome, compared with home-based computer vergence/accommodative therapy (risk ratio (RR) 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 to 2.94), home-based pencil/target push-ups (RR 2.86, 95% CI 1.82 to 4.35); and placebo (RR 3.04, 95% CI 2.32 to 3.98). However, there may be no evidence of any treatment difference between home-based computer vergence/accommodative therapy and home-based pencil/target push-ups (RR 1.44, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.24; low-certainty evidence), or between either of the two home-based therapies and placebo therapy, for the outcome of treatment success. When treatment success was defined as the composite convergence and symptom success outcome, we found moderate-certainty evidence that participants who received office-based vergence/accommodative therapy with home reinforcement were 5.12 (95% CI 2.01 to 13.07) times more likely to achieve treatment success than those who received placebo therapy. We found low-certainty evidence that participants who received office-based vergence/accommodative therapy with home reinforcement might be 4.41 (95% CI 1.26 to 15.38) times more likely to achieve treatment success than those who received home-based pencil push-ups, and 4.65 (95% CI 1.23 to 17.54) times more likely than those who received home-based computer vergence/accommodative therapy. There was no evidence of any treatment difference between home-based pencil push-ups and home-based computer vergence/accommodative therapy, or between either of the two home-based therapies and placebo therapy. One RCT evaluated the effectiveness of base-in prism reading glasses in children. When base-in prism reading glasses were compared with placebo reading glasses, investigators found no evidence of a difference in the three outcome measures of near point convergence (NPC), positive fusional vergence (PFV), or symptom scores measured by the Convergence Insufficiency Symptom Survey (CISS). Six RCTs in the adult population randomized 321 participants. We rated only one RCT at low risk of bias. Because not all studies of adults included composite success data, we could not conduct NMAs for treatment success. We thus were limited to comparing the mean difference (MD) between interventions for improving NPC, PFV, and CISS scores individually using data from three RCTs (107 participants; interventions 1, 2, 4 and 5). Compared with placebo treatment, office-based vergence accommodative therapy was relatively more effective in improving PFV (MD 16.73, 95% CI 6.96 to 26.60), but there was no evidence of a difference for NPC or the CISS score. There was no evidence of difference for any other comparisons for any outcomes. One trial evaluated base-in prism glasses prescribed for near-work activities and found that the prism glasses group had fewer symptoms compared with the placebo glasses group at three months (MD -8.9, 95% CI -11.6 to -6.3). The trial found no evidence of a difference with this intervention in NPC or PFV. No adverse effects related to study treatments were reported for any of the included studies. Excellent adherence was reported for office-based vergence/accommodative therapy (96.6% or higher) in two trials. Reported adherence with home-based therapy was less consistent, with one study reporting decreasing adherence over time (weeks 7 to 12) and lower completion rates with home-based pencil/target push-ups.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Current research suggests that office-based vergence/accommodative therapy with home reinforcement is more effective than home-based pencil/target push-ups or home-based computer vergence/accommodative therapy for children. In adults, evidence of the effectiveness of various non-surgical interventions is less clear.

Efficacy of Fractional Flow Reserve-Guided Percutaneous Cornary Intervention for Patients with Angina Pectoris

Evaluation of hemodynamic parameters, such as fractional flow reserve (FFR), is recommended before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for patients with angina pectoris (AP). However, the advantage of FFR-guided PCI has not been fully established. This study was performed to confirm whether FFR-guided PCI improves the prognosis compared with other treatments. Multiple databases were searched for studies published from 2000 to 2018, and a network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to compare outcomes of FFR-guided PCI, non-FFR-guided PCI, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and medical treatment (MT) for AP based on estimated odds ratios (ORs). The study included 18,093 patients from 15 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). No evidence of inconsistency was observed among the studies. The NMA showed that the all-cause mortality of FFR-guided PCI was not significantly different from that of the other treatment groups (CABG: OR, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-1.7; non-FFR-guided PCI: OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.53-1.4; and MT: OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.52-1.3). The NMA for the composite of all-cause mortality and myocardial infarction, which included 15,454 patients from 12 RCTs, showed that FFR-guided PCI significantly reduced the composite outcome compared with non-FFR-guided PCI and MT (non-FFR-guided PCI: OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.95 and MT: OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.95). Although FFR-guided PCI for AP did not show significant prognostic improvement compared with non-FFR-guided PCI, CABG, and MT, FFR-guided PCI may significantly reduce the composite of all-cause mortality and myocardial infarction compared with non-FFR-guided PCI and MT.

Optimum duration of adjuvant trastuzumab in treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive early breast cancer: protocol for a network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

Controversy regarding optimum duration of trastuzumab treatment remains in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) positive early breast cancer. The objective of applying network meta-analysis (NMA) is to integrate existing evidence based on direct and indirect comparisons of efficacy and safety, and then to determine the duration of trastuzumab treatments with the greatest impact on therapeutic outcomes in HER2-positive early breast cancers.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Electronic searching of trastuzumab treatments for early breast cancer by titles and abstracts will be conducted for the period from inception to 16 June 2019 in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase and ClinicalTrils.gov, as well as the annual meetings of San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS), European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) and American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) online archives. The outcomes of interest are overall survival, disease-free survival, acceptability, cardiotoxicities and grade 3 to 4 non-haematological toxicities. Two independent reviewers will screen and extract eligible data based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and then assess the risk of bias and evidence quality of individual studies using Cochrane Collaboration's tool and Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). The heterogeneity, transitivity and inconsistency of NMA will be evaluated. In addition, we will perform subgroup and sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness and reliability of findings in our NMA.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not required for our NMA. Findings from our NMA will be submitted as peer-reviewed journal manuscripts and international conference reports.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019139109.