Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Does social intolerance vary according to cognitive styles, genetic cognitive capacity, or education?

BACKGROUND

Low education, low cognitive abilities, and certain cognitive styles are suggested to predispose to social intolerance and prejudices. Evidence is, however, restricted by comparatively small samples, neglect of confounding variables and genetic factors, and a narrow focus on a single sort of prejudice. We investigated the relationships of education, polygenic cognitive potential, cognitive performance, and cognitive styles with social intolerance in adulthood over a 15-year follow-up.

METHODS

We used data from the prospective population-based Young Finns Study (n = 960-1679). Social intolerance was evaluated with the Social Intolerance Scale in 1997, 2001, and 2011; cognitive performance with the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery in 2011; cognitive styles in 1997; and socioeconomic factors in 1980 (childhood) and 2011 (adulthood); and polygenic cognitive potential was calculated based on genome-wide association studies.

RESULTS

We found that nonrational thinking, polygenic cognitive potential, cognitive performance, or socioeconomic factors were not related to social intolerance. Regarding cognitive styles, low flexibility (B = -0.759, p < .001), high perseverance (B = 1.245, p < .001), and low persistence (B = -0.329, p < .001) predicted higher social intolerance consistently in the analyses.

DISCUSSION

When developing prejudice-reduction interventions, it should be considered that educational level or cognitive performance may not be crucial for development of social intolerance. Adopting certain cognitive styles may play more important roles in development of social intolerance.

Neurocognitive trajectory and proteomic signature of inherited risk for Alzheimer's disease

For Alzheimer's disease-a leading cause of dementia and global morbidity-improved identification of presymptomatic high-risk individuals and identification of new circulating biomarkers are key public health needs. Here, we tested the hypothesis that a polygenic predictor of risk for Alzheimer's disease would identify a subset of the population with increased risk of clinically diagnosed dementia, subclinical neurocognitive dysfunction, and a differing circulating proteomic profile. Using summary association statistics from a recent genome-wide association study, we first developed a polygenic predictor of Alzheimer's disease comprised of 7.1 million common DNA variants. We noted a 7.3-fold (95% CI 4.8 to 11.0; p < 0.001) gradient in risk across deciles of the score among 288,289 middle-aged participants of the UK Biobank study. In cross-sectional analyses stratified by age, minimal differences in risk of Alzheimer's disease and performance on a digit recall test were present according to polygenic score decile at age 50 years, but significant gradients emerged by age 65. Similarly, among 30,541 participants of the Mass General Brigham Biobank, we again noted no significant differences in Alzheimer's disease diagnosis at younger ages across deciles of the score, but for those over 65 years we noted an odds ratio of 2.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.2; p = 0.002) in the top versus bottom decile of the polygenic score. To understand the proteomic signature of inherited risk, we performed aptamer-based profiling in 636 blood donors (mean age 43 years) with very high or low polygenic scores. In addition to the well-known apolipoprotein E biomarker, this analysis identified 27 additional proteins, several of which have known roles related to disease pathogenesis. Differences in protein concentrations were consistent even among the youngest subset of blood donors (mean age 33 years). Of these 28 proteins, 7 of the 8 proteins with concentrations available were similarly associated with the polygenic score in participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. These data highlight the potential for a DNA-based score to identify high-risk individuals during the prolonged presymptomatic phase of Alzheimer's disease and to enable biomarker discovery based on profiling of young individuals in the extremes of the score distribution.

Association of polygenic risk scores with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among individuals with coronary artery calcium score of zero: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. We studied incident ASCVD among individuals with absent coronary artery calcium (CAC = 0), to investigate the association of PRS with incident ASCVD among such individuals.

METHODS

Data was used from Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective cohort study of participants free of clinical CVD at baseline. PRS were developed based on a literature-derived list of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) weighted by effect size. The coronary heart disease (CHD) PRS contained 180 SNPs, and the stroke PRS had 32 SNPs. These SNPs were combined to compute an ASCVD PRS. The PRS were calculated among 3132 participants with CAC = 0. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between each PRS (top 20% vs bottom 50%) and ASCVD.

RESULTS

The study population included 3132 individuals with CAC = 0 [mean (SD) age 58 (9) years; 63% female, 33% White, 31% Black, 12% Chinese-American, 24% Hispanic]. Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 108 incident CHD events and 93 stroke events. ASCVD event rates were generally <7.5 per 1000-person years for all ASCVD events regardless of PRS risk stratum. The ASCVD PRS was significantly associated with incident ASCVD: (HR; 95% CI) (1.63; 1.11, 2.39). The CHD PRS was not associated with any ASCVD outcome, whereas the stroke PRS was significantly associated with ASCVD (1.84; 1.27, 2.68), CHD (1.79; 1.05, 3.06), and stroke (1.96; 1.19, 3.23). The stroke PRS results were significant among women and non-Whites.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with CAC = 0, the ASCVD PRS was associated with incident ASCVD events. This appears to be driven by genetic variants related to stroke but not CHD, and particularly among women and non-Whites. ASCVD event rates remained below the threshold recommended for consideration for initiation of statin therapy even in the high PRS groups.

OARD: Open annotations for rare diseases and their phenotypes based on real-world data

Diagnosis for rare genetic diseases often relies on phenotype-driven methods, which hinge on the accuracy and completeness of the rare disease phenotypes in the underlying annotation knowledgebase. Existing knowledgebases are often manually curated with additional annotations found in published case reports. Despite their potential, real-world data such as electronic health records (EHRs) have not been fully exploited to derive rare disease annotations. Here, we present open annotation for rare diseases (OARD), a real-world-data-derived resource with annotation for rare-disease-related phenotypes. This resource is derived from the EHRs of two academic health institutions containing more than 10 million individuals spanning wide age ranges and different disease subgroups. By leveraging ontology mapping and advanced natural-language-processing (NLP) methods, OARD automatically and efficiently extracts concepts for both rare diseases and their phenotypic traits from billing codes and lab tests as well as over 100 million clinical narratives. The rare disease prevalence derived by OARD is highly correlated with those annotated in the original rare disease knowledgebase. By performing association analysis, we identified more than 1 million novel disease-phenotype association pairs that were previously missed by human annotation, and >60% were confirmed true associations via manual review of a list of sampled pairs. Compared to the manual curated annotation, OARD is 100% data driven and its pipeline can be shared across different institutions. By supporting privacy-preserving sharing of aggregated summary statistics, such as term frequencies and disease-phenotype associations, it fills an important gap to facilitate data-driven research in the rare disease community.

Methylation risk scores are associated with a collection of phenotypes within electronic health record systems

Inference of clinical phenotypes is a fundamental task in precision medicine, and has therefore been heavily investigated in recent years in the context of electronic health records (EHR) using a large arsenal of machine learning techniques, as well as in the context of genetics using polygenic risk scores (PRS). In this work, we considered the epigenetic analog of PRS, methylation risk scores (MRS), a linear combination of methylation states. We measured methylation across a large cohort (n = 831) of diverse samples in the UCLA Health biobank, for which both genetic and complete EHR data are available. We constructed MRS for 607 phenotypes spanning diagnoses, clinical lab tests, and medication prescriptions. When added to a baseline set of predictive features, MRS significantly improved the imputation of 139 outcomes, whereas the PRS improved only 22 (median improvement for methylation 10.74%, 141.52%, and 15.46% in medications, labs, and diagnosis codes, respectively, whereas genotypes only improved the labs at a median increase of 18.42%). We added significant MRS to state-of-the-art EHR imputation methods that leverage the entire set of medical records, and found that including MRS as a medical feature in the algorithm significantly improves EHR imputation in 37% of lab tests examined (median R2 increase 47.6%). Finally, we replicated several MRS in multiple external studies of methylation (minimum p-value of 2.72 × 10-7) and replicated 22 of 30 tested MRS internally in two separate cohorts of different ethnicity. Our publicly available results and weights show promise for methylation risk scores as clinical and scientific tools.

Local genetic covariance between serum urate and kidney function estimated with Bayesian multitrait models

Hyperuricemia (serum urate >6.8 mg/dl) is associated with several cardiometabolic and renal diseases, such as gout and chronic kidney disease. Previous studies have examined the shared genetic basis of chronic kidney disease and hyperuricemia in humans either using single-variant tests or estimating whole-genome genetic correlations between the traits. Individual variants typically explain a small fraction of the genetic correlation between traits, thus the ability to map pleiotropic loci is lacking power for available sample sizes. Alternatively, whole-genome estimates of genetic correlation indicate a moderate correlation between these traits. While useful to explain the comorbidity of these traits, whole-genome genetic correlation estimates do not shed light on what regions may be implicated in the shared genetic basis of traits. Therefore, to fill the gap between these two approaches, we used local Bayesian multitrait models to estimate the genetic covariance between a marker for chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate) and serum urate in specific genomic regions. We identified 134 overlapping linkage disequilibrium windows with statistically significant covariance estimates, 49 of which had positive directionalities, and 85 negative directionalities, the latter being consistent with that of the overall genetic covariance. The 134 significant windows condensed to 64 genetically distinct shared loci which validate 17 previously identified shared loci with consistent directionality and revealed 22 novel pleiotropic genes. Finally, to examine potential biological mechanisms for these shared loci, we have identified a subset of the genomic windows that are associated with gene expression using colocalization analyses. The regions identified by our local Bayesian multitrait model approach may help explain the association between chronic kidney disease and hyperuricemia.

The construction of transcriptional risk scores for breast cancer based on lightGBM and multiple omics data

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS) can evaluate the individual-level genetic risk of breast cancer. However, standalone single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) data used for PRS may not provide satisfactory prediction accuracy. Additionally, current PRS models based on linear regression have insufficient power to leverage non-linear effects from thousands of associated SNPs. Here, we proposed a transcriptional risk score (TRS) based on multiple omics data to estimate the risk of breast cancer.

METHODS

The multiple omics data and clinical data of breast invasive carcinoma (BRCA) were collected from the cancer genome atlas (TCGA) and the gene expression omnibus (GEO). First, we developed a novel TRS model for BRCA utilizing single omic data and LightGBM algorithm. Subsequently, we built a combination model of TRS derived from each omic data to further improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, we performed association analysis and prognosis prediction to evaluate the utility of the TRS generated by our method.

RESULTS

The proposed TRS model achieved better predictive performance than the linear models and other ML methods in single omic dataset. An independent validation dataset also verified the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, the combination of the TRS can efficiently strengthen prediction accuracy. The analysis of prevalence and the associations of the TRS with phenotypes including case-control and cancer stage indicated that the risk of breast cancer increases with the increases of TRS. The survival analysis also suggested that TRS for the cancer stage is an effective prognostic metric of breast cancer patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed TRS model expanded the current definition of PRS from standalone SNP data to multiple omics data and outperformed the linear models, which may provide a powerful tool for diagnostic and prognostic prediction of breast cancer.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Cardiovascular disease is the leading contributor to years lost due to disability or premature death among adults. Current efforts focus on risk prediction and risk factor mitigation' which have been recognized for the past half-century. However, despite advances, risk prediction remains imprecise with persistently high rates of incident cardiovascular disease. Genetic characterization has been proposed as an approach to enable earlier and potentially tailored prevention. Rare mendelian pathogenic variants predisposing to cardiometabolic conditions have long been known to contribute to disease risk in some families. However, twin and familial aggregation studies imply that diverse cardiovascular conditions are heritable in the general population. Significant technological and methodological advances since the Human Genome Project are facilitating population-based comprehensive genetic profiling at decreasing costs. Genome-wide association studies from such endeavors continue to elucidate causal mechanisms for cardiovascular diseases. Systematic cataloging for cardiovascular risk alleles also enabled the development of polygenic risk scores. Genetic profiling is becoming widespread in large-scale research, including in health care-associated biobanks, randomized controlled trials, and direct-to-consumer profiling in tens of millions of people. Thus, individuals and their physicians are increasingly presented with polygenic risk scores for cardiovascular conditions in clinical encounters. In this scientific statement, we review the contemporary science, clinical considerations, and future challenges for polygenic risk scores for cardiovascular diseases. We selected 5 cardiometabolic diseases (coronary artery disease, hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and venous thromboembolic disease) and response to drug therapy and offer provisional guidance to health care professionals, researchers, policymakers, and patients.

Multiancestry exome sequencing reveals INHBE mutations associated with favorable fat distribution and protection from diabetes

Body fat distribution is a major, heritable risk factor for cardiometabolic disease, independent of overall adiposity. Using exome-sequencing in 618,375 individuals (including 160,058 non-Europeans) from the UK, Sweden and Mexico, we identify 16 genes associated with fat distribution at exome-wide significance. We show 6-fold larger effect for fat-distribution associated rare coding variants compared with fine-mapped common alleles, enrichment for genes expressed in adipose tissue and causal genes for partial lipodystrophies, and evidence of sex-dimorphism. We describe an association with favorable fat distribution (p = 1.8 × 10-09), favorable metabolic profile and protection from type 2 diabetes (~28% lower odds; p = 0.004) for heterozygous protein-truncating mutations in INHBE, which encodes a circulating growth factor of the activin family, highly and specifically expressed in hepatocytes. Our results suggest that inhibin βE is a liver-expressed negative regulator of adipose storage whose blockade may be beneficial in fat distribution-associated metabolic disease.

Multiethnic polygenic risk prediction in diverse populations through transfer learning

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) leverage the genetic contribution of an individual's genotype to a complex trait by estimating disease risk. Traditional PRS prediction methods are predominantly for the European population. The accuracy of PRS prediction in non-European populations is diminished due to much smaller sample size of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In this article, we introduced a novel method to construct PRS for non-European populations, abbreviated as TL-Multi, by conducting a transfer learning framework to learn useful knowledge from the European population to correct the bias for non-European populations. We considered non-European GWAS data as the target data and European GWAS data as the informative auxiliary data. TL-Multi borrows useful information from the auxiliary data to improve the learning accuracy of the target data while preserving the efficiency and accuracy. To demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed method, we applied TL-Multi to predict the risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Asian population and the risk of asthma in the Indian population by borrowing information from the European population. TL-Multi achieved better prediction accuracy than the competing methods, including Lassosum and meta-analysis in both simulations and real applications.

A Phenome-wide Association and Mendelian Randomization Study for Alzheimer's Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study of 502,493 Participants From the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding associations of multiple risk factors with Alzheimer's disease (AD). We aimed to systematically screen and validate a wide range of potential risk factors for AD.

METHODS

Among 502,493 participants from the UK Biobank, baseline data were extracted for 4171 factors spanning 10 different categories. Phenome-wide association analyses and time-to-event analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with both polygenic risk scores for AD and AD diagnosis at follow-up. We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to further assess their potential causal relationships with AD and imaging association analysis to discover underlying mechanisms.

RESULTS

We identified 39 factors significantly associated with both AD polygenic risk scores and risk of incident AD, where higher levels of education, body size, basal metabolic rate, fat-free mass, computer use, and cognitive functions were associated with a decreased risk of developing AD, and selective food intake and more outdoor exposures were associated with an increased risk of developing AD. The identified factors were also associated with AD-related brain structures, including the hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, and inferior/middle temporal cortex, and 21 of these factors were further supported by Mendelian randomization evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively and rigorously assess the effects of wide-ranging risk factors on AD. Strong evidence was found for fat-free body mass, basal metabolic rate, computer use, selective food intake, and outdoor exposures as new risk factors for AD. Integration of genetic, clinical, and neuroimaging information may help prioritize risk factors and prevention targets for AD.

Leveraging Therapy-Specific Polygenic Risk Scores to Predict Restrictive Lung Defects in Childhood Cancer Survivors

Therapy-related pulmonary complications are among the leading causes of morbidity among long-term survivors of childhood cancer. Restrictive ventilatory defects (RVD) are prevalent, with risks increasing after exposures to chest radiotherapy and radiomimetic chemotherapies. Using whole-genome sequencing data from 1,728 childhood cancer survivors in the St. Jude Lifetime Cohort Study, we developed and validated a composite RVD risk prediction model that integrates clinical profiles and polygenic risk scores (PRS), including both published lung phenotype PRSs and a novel survivor-specific pharmaco/radiogenomic PRS (surPRS) for RVD risk reflecting gene-by-treatment (GxT) interaction effects. Overall, this new therapy-specific polygenic risk prediction model showed multiple indicators for superior discriminatory accuracy in an independent data set. The surPRS was significantly associated with RVD risk in both training (OR = 1.60, P = 3.7 × 10-10) and validation (OR = 1.44, P = 8.5 × 10-4) data sets. The composite model featuring the surPRS showed the best discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76-0.87), a significant improvement (P = 9.0 × 10-3) over clinical risk scores only (AUC = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.72-0.83). The odds of RVD in survivors in the highest quintile of composite model-predicted risk was ∼20-fold higher than those with median predicted risk or less (OR = 20.01, P = 2.2 × 10-16), exceeding the comparable estimate considering nongenetic risk factors only (OR = 9.20, P = 7.4 × 10-11). Inclusion of genetic predictors also selectively improved risk stratification for pulmonary complications across at-risk primary cancer diagnoses (AUCclinical = 0.72; AUCcomposite = 0.80, P = 0.012). Overall, this PRS approach that leverages GxT interaction effects supports late effects risk prediction among childhood cancer survivors.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study develops a therapy-specific polygenic risk prediction model to more precisely identify childhood cancer survivors at high risk for pulmonary complications, which could help improve risk stratification for other late effects.

Infection Polygenic Factors Account for a Small Proportion of the Relationship Between Infections and Mental Disorders

BACKGROUND

Several recent studies have suggested a role for infections in the development of mental disorders; however, the genetic contribution to this association is understudied.

METHODS

We use the iPSYCH case-cohort genotyped sample (n = 65,534) and Danish health care registry data to study the genetic association between infections and mental disorders. To test the hypothesis that these associations are due to genetic pleiotropy, we estimated the genetic correlation between infection and mental disorders. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were used to assess whether genetic pleiotropy of infections and mental disorders was mediated by actual infection diagnoses.

RESULTS

We observed that schizophrenia, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder (r_g ranging between 0.18 and 0.83), but not autism spectrum disorder and anorexia nervosa, were significantly genetically correlated with infection diagnoses. PRSs for infections were associated with modest increase in risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia in the iPSYCH case-cohort (hazard ratios = 1.04 to 1.10) but was not associated with risk of anorexia, autism, or bipolar disorder. Using mediation analysis, we show that infection diagnoses account for only a small proportion (6%-14%) of the risk for mental disorders conferred by infection PRSs.

CONCLUSIONS

Infections and mental disorders share a modest genetic architecture. Infection PRSs can predict risk of certain mental disorders; however, this effect is moderate. Finally, recorded infections partially explain the relationship between infection PRSs and mental disorders.

Challenges and Opportunities for Developing More Generalizable Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate an individual's genetic likelihood of complex traits and diseases by aggregating information across multiple genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. PRS can predict a broad spectrum of diseases and have therefore been widely used in research settings. Some work has investigated their potential applications as biomarkers in preventative medicine, but significant work is still needed to definitively establish and communicate absolute risk to patients for genetic and modifiable risk factors across demographic groups. However, the biggest limitation of PRS currently is that they show poor generalizability across diverse ancestries and cohorts. Major efforts are underway through methodological development and data generation initiatives to improve their generalizability. This review aims to comprehensively discuss current progress on the development of PRS, the factors that affect their generalizability, and promising areas for improving their accuracy, portability, and implementation.

Phenotypic Causal Inference Using Genome-Wide Association Study Data: Mendelian Randomization and Beyond

statistics for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are increasingly available for downstream analyses. Meanwhile, the popularity of causal inference methods has grown as we look to gather robust evidence for novel medical and public health interventions. This has led to the development of methods that use GWAS summary statistics for causal inference. Here, we describe these methods in order of their escalating complexity, from genetic associations to extensions of Mendelian randomization that consider thousands of phenotypes simultaneously. We also cover the assumptions and limitations of these approaches before considering the challenges faced by researchers performing causal inference using GWAS data. GWAS summary statistics constitute an important data source for causal inference research that offers a counterpoint to nongenetic methods when triangulating evidence. Continued efforts to address the challenges in using GWAS data for causal inference will allow the full impact of these approaches to be realized.

Genome-first recall of healthy individuals by polygenic risk score reveals differences in coronary artery calcium

Genetic risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) is commonly measured with polygenic risk scores (PRS); yet, the relationship of atherosclerotic burden with PRS in healthy individuals not at high clinical risk for CAD (ie, without a high pooled cohort equations [PCE] score) is unknown. Here, we implemented a novel recall-by-PRS strategy to measure coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores prospectively in 53 healthy individuals with extreme high PRS (median [IQR] PRS = 94% [83-98]) and low PRS (median [IQR] PRS = 3.6% [1.2-10]). The high PRS group was associated with a 2.8-fold greater CAC than the low PRS group, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, smoking, and statin use, and had a 6.7-fold greater proportion of individuals with CAC exceeding 300 HU. These findings reveal that extreme PRS tracks with CAD risk even in those without high clinical risk and demonstrate proof of principle for recall-by-PRS approaches that should be assessed prospectively in larger trials.

Genome-wide Association Study of Liking for Several Types of Physical Activity in the UK Biobank and Two Replication Cohorts

INTRODUCTION

A lack of physical activity (PA) is one of the most pressing health issues today. Our individual propensity for PA is influenced by genetic factors. Stated liking of different PA types may help capture additional and informative dimensions of PA behavior genetics.

METHODS

In over 157,000 individuals from the UK Biobank, we performed genome-wide association studies of five items assessing the liking of different PA types, plus an additional derived trait of overall PA-liking. We attempted to replicate significant associations in the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR) and TwinsUK. Additionally, polygenic scores (PGS) were trained in the UK Biobank for each PA-liking item and for self-reported PA behavior, and tested for association with PA in the NTR.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 19 unique significant loci across all five PA-liking items and the overall PA-liking trait, and these showed strong directional consistency in the replication cohorts. Four of these loci were previously identified for PA behavior, including CADM2 , which was associated with three PA-liking items. The PA-liking items were genetically correlated with self-reported ( rg = 0.38-0.80) and accelerometer ( rg = 0.26-0.49) PA measures, and with a wide range of health-related traits. Each PA-liking PGS significantly predicted the same PA-liking item in NTR. The PGS of liking for going to the gym predicted PA behavior in the NTR ( r2 = 0.40%) nearly as well as a PGS based on self-reported PA behavior ( r2 = 0.42%). Combining the two PGS into a single model increased the r2 to 0.59%, suggesting that PA-liking captures distinct and relevant dimensions of PA behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified the first loci associated with PA-liking and extended our understanding of the genetic basis of PA behavior.

Novel functional genomics approaches bridging neuroscience and psychiatry

The possibility of establishing a metric of individual genetic risk for a particular disease or trait has sparked the interest of the clinical and research communities, with many groups developing and validating genomic profiling methodologies for their potential application in clinical care. Current approaches for calculating genetic risk to specific psychiatric conditions consist of aggregating genome-wide association studies-derived estimates into polygenic risk scores, which broadly represent the number of inherited risk alleles for an individual. While the traditional approach for polygenic risk score calculation aggregates estimates of gene-disease associations, novel alternative approaches have started to consider functional molecular phenotypes that are closer to genetic variation and are less penalized by the multiple testing required in genome-wide association studies. Moving the focus from genotype-disease to genotype-gene regulation frameworks, these novel approaches incorporate prior knowledge regarding biological processes involved in disease and aggregate estimates for the association of genotypes and phenotypes using multi-omics data modalities. In this review, we discuss and list different functional genomics tools that can be used and integrated to inform researchers and clinicians for a better understanding and diagnosis of psychopathology. We suggest that these novel approaches can help generate biologically driven hypotheses for polygenic signals that can ultimately serve the clinical community as potential biomarkers of psychiatric disease susceptibility.

Association of Genome-Wide Polygenic Risk Score for Body Mass Index With Cardiometabolic Health From Childhood Through Midlife

BACKGROUND

Genetic information may help to identify individuals in childhood who are at increased risk for cardiometabolic disease.

METHODS

We included 1201 BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study) participants (832 White participants and 369 Black participants) who were followed up to 42.3 years, starting at a mean age of 9.8 years. A validated genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) was tested for association with midlife body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, and systolic blood pressure using multiple linear regression models. Cox proportional hazards models tested associations of the PRS with incident obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. All analyses were conducted according to race and adjusted for baseline age, sex, ancestry, and BMI.

RESULTS

The constructed PRS was significantly and modestly correlated with midlife BMI in both White and Black participants, with correlation coefficients of 0.27 (P=1.94×10-8) and 0.16 (P=5.50×10-3), respectively. In White participants, per SD increase of PRS was associated with an average 1.29 kg/m2 higher BMI (P=4.44×10-9), 2.82 mg/dL higher fasting plasma glucose (P=1.17×10-3), and 1.09 mm Hg higher systolic blood pressure (P=3.57×10-2) at midlife. The PRS also conferred a 26% higher increased risk of obesity (P=3.50×10-6) in White participants. In addition, the variance in midlife BMI explained increased from 0.1973 to 0.2293 when PRS was added to the model including age, sex, principal components, and baseline BMI (P<0.0001). No associations were observed in Black participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Adiposity-related genetic information independently predicted cardiometabolic health in White BHS participants. Null associations observed in Black BHS participants highlight the urgent need for PRS development in multi-ancestry populations.

Cognitive Capacity Genome-Wide Polygenic Scores Identify Individuals with Slower Cognitive Decline in Aging

The genetic protective factors for cognitive decline in aging remain unknown. Predicting an individual’s rate of cognitive decline—or with better cognitive resilience—using genetics will allow personalized intervention for cognitive enhancement and the optimal selection of target samples in clinical trials. Here, using genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) of cognitive capacity as the genomic indicators for variations of human intelligence, we analyzed the 18-year records of cognitive and behavioral data of 8511 European-ancestry adults from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS), specifically focusing on the cognitive assessments that were repeatedly administered to the participants with their average ages of 64.5 and 71.5. We identified a significant interaction effect between age and cognitive capacity GPS, which indicated that a higher cognitive capacity GPS significantly correlated with a slower cognitive decline in the domain of immediate memory recall (β = 1.86 × 10⁻¹, p-value = 1.79 × 10⁻³). The additional phenome-wide analyses identified several associations between cognitive capacity GPSs and cognitive/behavioral phenotypes, such as similarities task (β = 1.36, 95% CI = (1.22, 1.51), p-value = 3.59 × 10⁻⁷⁴), number series task (β = 0.94, 95% CI = (0.85, 1.04), p-value = 2.55 × 10⁻⁷⁸), IQ scores (β = 1.42, 95% CI = (1.32, 1.51), p-value = 7.74 × 10⁻¹⁷⁹), high school classrank (β = 1.86, 95% CI = (1.69, 2.02), p-value = 3.07 × 10⁻¹⁰¹), Openness from the BIG 5 personality factor (p-value = 2.19 × 10⁻¹⁴, β = 0.57, 95% CI = (0.42, 0.71)), and leisure activity of reading books (β = 0.50, 95% CI = (0.40, 0.60), p-value = 2.03 × 10⁻²¹), attending cultural events, such as concerts, plays, or museums (β = 0.60, 95% CI = (0.49, 0.72), p-value = 2.06 × 10⁻²³), and watching TV (β = −0.48, 95% CI = (−0.59, −0.37), p-value = 4.16 × 10⁻¹⁸). As the first phenome-wide analysis of cognitive and behavioral phenotypes, this study presents the novel genetic protective effects of cognitive ability on the decline of memory recall in an aging population.

The consequences of a year of the COVID-19 pandemic for the mental health of young adult twins in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all our lives, not only through the infection itself but also through the measures taken to control the spread of the virus (e.g. lockdown).

AIMS

Here, we investigated how the COVID-19 pandemic and unprecedented lockdown affected the mental health of young adults in England and Wales.

METHOD

We compared the mental health symptoms of up to 4773 twins in their mid-20s in 2018 prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (T1) and during four-wave longitudinal data collection during the pandemic in April, July and October 2020, and in March 2021 (T2-T5) using phenotypic and genetic longitudinal designs.

RESULTS

The average changes in mental health were small to medium and mainly occurred from T1 to T2 (average Cohen d = 0.14). Despite the expectation of catastrophic effects of the pandemic on mental health, we did not observe trends in worsening mental health during the pandemic (T3-T5). Young people with pre-existing mental health problems were disproportionately affected at the beginning of the pandemic, but their increased problems largely subsided as the pandemic persisted. Twin analyses indicated that the aetiology of individual differences in mental health symptoms did not change during the lockdown (average heritability 33%); the average genetic correlation between T1 and T2-T5 was 0.95, indicating that genetic effects before the pandemic were substantially correlated with genetic effects up to a year later.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that on average the mental health of young adults in England and Wales has been remarkably resilient to the effects of the pandemic and associated lockdown.

Polygenic risk for type 2 diabetes, lifestyle, metabolic health, and cardiovascular disease: a prospective UK Biobank study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined associations between genetic risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), lifestyle, clinical risk factors, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to investigate the association of and potential interactions among genetic risk for T2D, lifestyle behavior, and metabolic risk factors with CVD.

METHODS

A total of 345,217 unrelated participants of white British descent were included in analyses. Genetic risk for T2D was estimated as a genome-wide polygenic risk score constructed from > 6 million genetic variants. A favorable lifestyle was defined in terms of four modifiable lifestyle components, and metabolic health status was determined according to the presence of metabolic syndrome components.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 21,865 CVD cases (6.3%) were identified. Compared with the low genetic risk group, participants at high genetic risk for T2D had higher rates of overall CVD events, CVD subtypes (coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation/flutter), and CVD mortality. Individuals at very high genetic risk for T2D had a 35% higher risk of CVD than those with low genetic risk (HR 1.35 [95% CI 1.19 to 1.53]). A significant gradient of increased CVD risk was observed across genetic risk, lifestyle, and metabolic health status (P for trend > 0.001). Those with favorable lifestyle and metabolically healthy status had significantly reduced risk of CVD events regardless of T2D genetic risk. This risk reduction was more apparent in young participants (≤ 50 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic risk for T2D was associated with increased risks of overall CVD, various CVD subtypes, and fatal CVD. Engaging in a healthy lifestyle and maintaining metabolic health may reduce subsequent risk of CVD regardless of genetic risk for T2D.

Incorporating family history of disease improves polygenic risk scores in diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from genotype data and family history (FH) of disease provide valuable information for predicting disease risk, but PRSs perform poorly when applied to diverse populations. Here, we explore methods for combining both types of information (PRS-FH) in UK Biobank data. PRSs were trained using all British individuals (n = 409,000), and target samples consisted of unrelated non-British Europeans (n = 42,000), South Asians (n = 7,000), or Africans (n = 7,000). We evaluated PRS, FH, and PRS-FH using liability-scale R 2, primarily focusing on 3 well-powered diseases (type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and depression). PRS attained average prediction R 2s of 5.8%, 4.0%, and 0.53% in non-British Europeans, South Asians, and Africans, confirming poor cross-population transferability. In contrast, PRS-FH attained average prediction R 2s of 13%, 12%, and 10%, respectively, representing a large improvement in Europeans and an extremely large improvement in Africans. In conclusion, including family history improves the accuracy of polygenic risk scores, particularly in diverse populations.

Leveraging the local genetic structure for trans-ancestry association mapping

Over the past two decades, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have successfully advanced our understanding of the genetic basis of complex traits. Despite the fruitful discovery of GWASs, most GWAS samples are collected from European populations, and these GWASs are often criticized for their lack of ancestry diversity. Trans-ancestry association mapping (TRAM) offers an exciting opportunity to fill the gap of disparities in genetic studies between non-Europeans and Europeans. Here, we propose a statistical method, LOG-TRAM, to leverage the local genetic architecture for TRAM. By using biobank-scale datasets, we showed that LOG-TRAM can greatly improve the statistical power of identifying risk variants in under-represented populations while producing well-calibrated p values. We applied LOG-TRAM to the GWAS summary statistics of various complex traits/diseases from BioBank Japan, UK Biobank, and African populations. We obtained substantial gains in power and achieved effective correction of confounding biases in TRAM. Finally, we showed that LOG-TRAM can be successfully applied to identify ancestry-specific loci and the LOG-TRAM output can be further used for construction of more accurate polygenic risk scores in under-represented populations.

Genome-wide Association Meta-analysis of Childhood and Adolescent Internalizing Symptoms

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the genetic architecture of internalizing symptoms in childhood and adolescence.

METHOD

In 22 cohorts, multiple univariate genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were performed using repeated assessments of internalizing symptoms, in a total of 64,561 children and adolescents between 3 and 18 years of age. Results were aggregated in meta-analyses that accounted for sample overlap, first using all available data, and then using subsets of measurements grouped by rater, age, and instrument.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis of overall internalizing symptoms (INToverall) detected no genome-wide significant hits and showed low single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability (1.66%, 95% CI = 0.84-2.48%, neffective = 132,260). Stratified analyses indicated rater-based heterogeneity in genetic effects, with self-reported internalizing symptoms showing the highest heritability (5.63%, 95% CI = 3.08%-8.18%). The contribution of additive genetic effects on internalizing symptoms appeared to be stable over age, with overlapping estimates of SNP heritability from early childhood to adolescence. Genetic correlations were observed with adult anxiety, depression, and the well-being spectrum (|rg| > 0.70), as well as with insomnia, loneliness, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, and childhood aggression (range |rg| = 0.42-0.60), whereas there were no robust associations with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or anorexia nervosa.

CONCLUSION

Genetic correlations indicate that childhood and adolescent internalizing symptoms share substantial genetic vulnerabilities with adult internalizing disorders and other childhood psychiatric traits, which could partially explain both the persistence of internalizing symptoms over time and the high comorbidity among childhood psychiatric traits. Reducing phenotypic heterogeneity in childhood samples will be key in paving the way to future GWAS success.

Using DNA to predict behaviour problems from preschool to adulthood

BACKGROUND

One goal of the DNA revolution is to predict problems in order to prevent them. We tested here if the prediction of behaviour problems from genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) can be improved by creating composites across ages and across raters and by using a multi-GPS approach that includes GPS for adult psychiatric disorders as well as for childhood behaviour problems.

METHOD

Our sample included 3,065 genotyped unrelated individuals from the Twins Early Development Study who were assessed longitudinally for hyperactivity, conduct, emotional problems, and peer problems as rated by parents, teachers, and children themselves. GPS created from 15 genome-wide association studies were used separately and jointly to test the prediction of behaviour problems composites (general behaviour problems, externalising, and internalising) across ages (from age 2 to 21) and across raters in penalised regression models. Based on the regression weights, we created multi-trait GPS reflecting the best prediction of behaviour problems. We compared GPS prediction to twin heritability using the same sample and measures.

RESULTS

Multi-GPS prediction of behaviour problems increased from <2% of the variance for observed traits to up to 6% for cross-age and cross-rater composites. Twin study estimates of heritability, although to a lesser extent, mirrored patterns of multi-GPS prediction as they increased from <40% to 83%.

CONCLUSIONS

The ability of GPS to predict behaviour problems can be improved by using multiple GPS, cross-age composites and cross-rater composites, although the effect sizes remain modest, up to 6%. Our approach can be used in any genotyped sample to create multi-trait GPS predictors of behaviour problems that will be more predictive than polygenic scores based on a single age, rater, or GPS.

Genome-wide polygenic score to predict chronic kidney disease across ancestries

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common complex condition associated with high morbidity and mortality. Polygenic prediction could enhance CKD screening and prevention; however, this approach has not been optimized for ancestrally diverse populations. By combining APOL1 risk genotypes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of kidney function, we designed, optimized and validated a genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) for CKD. The new GPS was tested in 15 independent cohorts, including 3 cohorts of European ancestry (n = 97,050), 6 cohorts of African ancestry (n = 14,544), 4 cohorts of Asian ancestry (n = 8,625) and 2 admixed Latinx cohorts (n = 3,625). We demonstrated score transferability with reproducible performance across all tested cohorts. The top 2% of the GPS was associated with nearly threefold increased risk of CKD across ancestries. In African ancestry cohorts, the APOL1 risk genotype and polygenic component of the GPS had additive effects on the risk of CKD.

Establishment and Analysis of a Combined Diagnostic Model of Alzheimer's Disease With Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative condition that causes cognitive decline over time. Because existing diagnostic approaches for AD are limited, improving upon previously established diagnostic models based on genetic biomarkers is necessary. Firstly, four AD gene expression datasets were collected from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Two datasets were used to establish diagnostic models, and the other two datasets were used to verify the model effect. We merged GSE5281 with GSE44771 as the training dataset and found 120 DEGs. Then, we used random forest (RF) to screen 6 key genes (KLF15, MAFF, ITPKB, SST, DDIT4, and NRXN3) as being critical for separating AD and normal samples. The weights of these key genes were measured, and a diagnostic model was created using an artificial neural network (ANN). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model is 0.953, while the accuracy is 0.914. In the final step, two validation datasets were utilized to assess AUC performance. In GSE109887, our model had an AUC of 0.854, and in GSE132903, it had an AUC of 0.810. To summarize, we successfully identified key gene biomarkers and developed a new AD diagnostic model.

Construction and Application of Polygenic Risk Scores in Autoimmune Diseases

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of genetic variants associated with autoimmune diseases and provided unique mechanistic insights and informed novel treatments. These individual genetic variants on their own typically confer a small effect of disease risk with limited predictive power; however, when aggregated (e.g., via polygenic risk score method), they could provide meaningful risk predictions for a myriad of diseases. In this review, we describe the recent advances in GWAS for autoimmune diseases and the practical application of this knowledge to predict an individual’s susceptibility/severity for autoimmune diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) via the polygenic risk score method. We provide an overview of methods for deriving different polygenic risk scores and discuss the strategies to integrate additional information from correlated traits and diverse ancestries. We further advocate for the need to integrate clinical features (e.g., anti-nuclear antibody status) with genetic profiling to better identify patients at high risk of disease susceptibility/severity even before clinical signs or symptoms develop. We conclude by discussing future challenges and opportunities of applying polygenic risk score methods in clinical care.

Impact of linkage disequilibrium heterogeneity along the genome on genomic prediction and heritability estimation

BACKGROUND

Compared to medium-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, high-density SNP data contain abundant genetic variants and provide more information for the genetic evaluation of livestock, but it has been shown that they do not confer any advantage for genomic prediction and heritability estimation. One possible reason is the uneven distribution of the linkage disequilibrium (LD) along the genome, i.e., LD heterogeneity among regions. The aim of this study was to effectively use genome-wide SNP data for genomic prediction and heritability estimation by using models that control LD heterogeneity among regions.

METHODS

The LD-adjusted kinship (LDAK) and LD-stratified multicomponent (LDS) models were used to control LD heterogeneity among regions and were compared with the classical model that has no such control. Simulated and real traits of 2000 dairy cattle individuals with imputed high-density (770K) SNP data were used. Five types of phenotypes were simulated, which were controlled by very strongly, strongly, moderately, weakly and very weakly tagged causal variants, respectively. The performances of the models with high- and medium-density (50K) panels were compared to verify that the models that controlled LD heterogeneity among regions were more effective with high-density data.

RESULTS

Compared to the medium-density panel, the use of the high-density panel did not improve and even decreased prediction accuracies and heritability estimates from the classical model for both simulated and real traits. Compared to the classical model, LDS effectively improved the accuracy of genomic predictions and unbiasedness of heritability estimates, regardless of the genetic architecture of the trait. LDAK applies only to traits that are mainly controlled by weakly tagged causal variants, but is still less effective than LDS for this type of trait. Compared with the classical model, LDS improved prediction accuracy by about 13% for simulated phenotypes and by 0.3 to ~ 10.7% for real traits with the high-density panel, and by ~ 1% for simulated phenotypes and by - 0.1 to ~ 6.9% for real traits with the medium-density panel.

CONCLUSIONS

Grouping SNPs based on regional LD to construct the LD-stratified multicomponent model can effectively eliminate the adverse effects of LD heterogeneity among regions, and greatly improve the efficiency of high-density SNP data for genomic prediction and heritability estimation.

Advancing our understanding of genetic risk factors and potential personalized strategies for pelvic organ prolapse

Pelvic organ prolapse is a common gynecological condition with limited understanding of its genetic background. In this work, we perform a genome-wide association meta-analysis comprising 28,086 cases and 546,291 controls from European ancestry. We identify 19 novel genome-wide significant loci, highlighting connective tissue, urogenital and cardiometabolic as likely affected systems. Here, we prioritize many genes of potential interest and assess shared genetic and phenotypic links. Additionally, we present the first polygenic risk score, which shows similar predictive ability (Harrell C-statistic (C-stat) 0.583, standard deviation (sd) = 0.007) as five established clinical risk factors combined (number of children, body mass index, ever smoked, constipation and asthma) (C-stat = 0.588, sd = 0.007) and demonstrates a substantial incremental value in combination with these (C-stat = 0.630, sd = 0.007). These findings improve our understanding of genetic factors underlying pelvic organ prolapse and provide a solid start evaluating polygenic risk scores as a potential tool to enhance individual risk prediction.

Although pelvic organ prolapse is a common gynecological condition, the genetic component of disease risk is not well known. Here the authors find common genetic variants associated with the disease and present a polygenic risk score to enhance individual risk prediction.

The female protective effect against autism spectrum disorder

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is diagnosed three to four times more frequently in males than in females. Genetic studies of rare variants support a female protective effect (FPE) against ASD. However, sex differences in common inherited genetic risk for ASD are less studied, particularly within families. Leveraging the Danish iPSYCH resource, we found siblings of female ASD cases (n = 1,707) had higher rates of ASD than siblings of male ASD cases (n = 6,270; p < 1.0 × 10-10). In the Simons Simplex and SPARK collections, mothers of ASD cases (n = 7,436) carried more polygenic risk for ASD than fathers of ASD cases (n = 5,926; 0.08 polygenic risk score [PRS] SD; p = 7.0 × 10-7). Further, male unaffected siblings under-inherited polygenic risk (n = 1,519; p = 0.03). Using both epidemiologic and genetic approaches, our findings strongly support an FPE against ASD's common inherited influences.

Population differentiation of polygenic score predictions under stabilizing selection

Given the many small-effect loci uncovered by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), polygenic scores have become central to genomic medicine, and have found application in diverse settings including evolutionary studies of adaptation. Despite their promise, polygenic scores have been found to suffer from limited portability across human populations. This at first seems in conflict with the observation that most common genetic variation is shared among populations. We investigate one potential cause of this discrepancy: stabilizing selection on complex traits. Counterintuitively, while stabilizing selection constrains phenotypic evolution, it accelerates the loss and fixation of alleles underlying trait variation within populations (GWAS loci). Thus even when populations share an optimum phenotype, stabilizing selection erodes the variance contributed by their shared GWAS loci, such that predictions from GWAS in one population explain less of the phenotypic variation in another. We develop theory to quantify how stabilizing selection is expected to reduce the prediction accuracy of polygenic scores in populations not represented in GWAS samples. In addition, we find that polygenic scores can substantially overstate average genetic differences of phenotypes among populations. We emphasize stabilizing selection around a common optimum as a useful null model to connect patterns of allele frequency and polygenic score differentiation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Celebrating 50 years since Lewontin's apportionment of human diversity'.

Shared components of heritability across genetically correlated traits

Most disease-associated genetic variants are pleiotropic, affecting multiple genetically correlated traits. Their pleiotropic associations can be mechanistically informative: if many variants have similar patterns of association, they may act via similar pleiotropic mechanisms, forming a shared component of heritability. We developed pleiotropic decomposition regression (PDR) to identify shared components and their underlying genetic variants. We validated PDR on simulated data and identified limitations of existing methods in recovering the true components. We applied PDR to three clusters of five to six traits genetically correlated with coronary artery disease (CAD), asthma, and type II diabetes (T2D), producing biologically interpretable components. For CAD, PDR identified components related to BMI, hypertension, and cholesterol, and it clarified the relationship among these highly correlated risk factors. We assigned variants to components, calculated their posterior-mean effect sizes, and performed out-of-sample validation. Our posterior-mean effect sizes pool statistical power across traits and substantially boost the correlation (r2) between true and estimated effect sizes (compared with the original summary statistics) by 94% and 70% for asthma and T2D out of sample, respectively, and by a predicted 300% for CAD.

Specificity of Psychiatric Polygenic Risk Scores and their Effects on Associated Risk Phenotypes

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are indices of genetic liability for illness, but their clinical utility for predicting risk for a specific psychiatric disorder is limited. Genetic overlap among disorders and their effects on allied phenotypes may be a possible explanation, but this has been difficult to quantify given focus on singular disorders and/or allied phenotypes.

Methods

We constructed PRSs for 5 psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) and 3 nonpsychiatric control traits (height, type II diabetes, irritable bowel disease) in the UK Biobank (N = 31,616) and quantified associations between PRSs and phenotypes allied with mental illness: behavioral (symptoms, cognition, trauma) and brain measures from magnetic resonance imaging. We then evaluated the extent of specificity among PRSs and their effects on these allied phenotypes.

Results

Correlations among psychiatric PRSs replicated previous work, with overlap between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, which was distinct from overlap between autism spectrum disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; overlap between psychiatric and control PRSs was minimal. There was, however, substantial overlap of PRS effects on allied phenotypes among psychiatric disorders and among psychiatric disorders and control traits, where the extent and pattern of overlap was phenotype specific.

Conclusions

Results show that genetic distinctions between psychiatric disorders and between psychiatric disorders and control traits exist, but this does not extend to their effects on allied phenotypes. Although overlap can be informative, work is needed to construct PRSs that will function at the level of specificity needed for clinical application.

Mendelian imputation of parental genotypes improves estimates of direct genetic effects

Effects estimated by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) include effects of alleles in an individual on that individual (direct genetic effects), indirect genetic effects (for example, effects of alleles in parents on offspring through the environment) and bias from confounding. Within-family genetic variation is random, enabling unbiased estimation of direct genetic effects when parents are genotyped. However, parental genotypes are often missing. We introduce a method that imputes missing parental genotypes and estimates direct genetic effects. Our method, implemented in the software package snipar (single-nucleotide imputation of parents), gives more precise estimates of direct genetic effects than existing approaches. Using 39,614 individuals from the UK Biobank with at least one genotyped sibling/parent, we estimate the correlation between direct genetic effects and effects from standard GWASs for nine phenotypes, including educational attainment (r = 0.739, standard error (s.e.) = 0.086) and cognitive ability (r = 0.490, s.e. = 0.086). Our results demonstrate substantial confounding bias in standard GWASs for some phenotypes.

Shared exposure liability of type 2 diabetes and other chronic conditions in the UK Biobank

AIMS

To investigate whether the cumulative exposure risks of incident T2D are shared with other common chronic diseases.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We first establish and report the cross-sectional prevalence, cross-sectional co-prevalence, and incidence of seven T2D-associated chronic diseases [hypertension, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic kidney and liver diseases] in the UK Biobank. We use published weights of genetic variants and exposure variables to derive the T2D polygenic (PGS) and polyexposure (PXS) risk scores and test their associations to incident diseases.

RESULTS

PXS was associated with higher levels of clinical risk factors including BMI, systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, triglycerides, and HbA1c in individuals without overt or diagnosed T2D. In addition to predicting incident T2D, PXS and PGS were significantly and positively associated with the incidence of all 7 other chronic diseases. There were 4% and 8% of individuals in the bottom deciles of PXS and PGS, respectively, who were prediabetic at baseline but had low risks of T2D and other chronic diseases. Compared to the remaining population, individuals in the top deciles of PGS and PXS had particularly high risks of developing chronic diseases. For instance, the hazard ratio of COPD and obesity for individuals in the top T2D PXS deciles was 2.82 (95% CI 2.39-3.35, P = 4.00 × 10-33) and 2.54 (95% CI 2.24-2.87, P = 9.86 × 10-50), respectively, compared to the remaining population. We also found that PXS and PGS were both significantly (P < 0.0001) and positively associated with the total number of incident diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

T2D shares polyexposure risks with other common chronic diseases. Individuals with an elevated genetic and non-genetic risk of T2D also have high risks of cardiovascular, liver, lung, and kidney diseases.

Human brain anatomy reflects separable genetic and environmental components of socioeconomic status

Socioeconomic status (SES) correlates with brain structure, a relation of interest given the long-observed relations of SES to cognitive abilities and health. Yet, major questions remain open, in particular, the pattern of causality that underlies this relation. In an unprecedently large study, here, we assess genetic and environmental contributions to SES differences in neuroanatomy. We first establish robust SES-gray matter relations across a number of brain regions, cortical and subcortical. These regional correlates are parsed into predominantly genetic factors and those potentially due to the environment. We show that genetic effects are stronger in some areas (prefrontal cortex, insula) than others. In areas showing less genetic effect (cerebellum, lateral temporal), environmental factors are likely to be influential. Our results imply a complex interplay of genetic and environmental factors that influence the SES-brain relation and may eventually provide insights relevant to policy.

Polygenic transcriptome risk scores for COPD and lung function improve cross-ethnic portability of prediction in the NHLBI TOPMed program

While polygenic risk scores (PRSs) enable early identification of genetic risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), predictive performance is limited when the discovery and target populations are not well matched. Hypothesizing that the biological mechanisms of disease are shared across ancestry groups, we introduce a PrediXcan-derived polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS) to improve cross-ethnic portability of risk prediction. We constructed the PTRS using summary statistics from application of PrediXcan on large-scale GWASs of lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV₁] and its ratio to forced vital capacity [FEV₁/FVC]) in the UK Biobank. We examined prediction performance and cross-ethnic portability of PTRS through smoking-stratified analyses both on 29,381 multi-ethnic participants from TOPMed population/family-based cohorts and on 11,771 multi-ethnic participants from TOPMed COPD-enriched studies. Analyses were carried out for two dichotomous COPD traits (moderate-to-severe and severe COPD) and two quantitative lung function traits (FEV₁ and FEV₁/FVC). While the proposed PTRS showed weaker associations with disease than PRS for European ancestry, the PTRS showed stronger association with COPD than PRS for African Americans (e.g., odds ratio [OR] = 1.24 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.43] for PTRS versus 1.10 [0.96-1.26] for PRS among heavy smokers with ≥ 40 pack-years of smoking) for moderate-to-severe COPD. Cross-ethnic portability of the PTRS was significantly higher than the PRS (paired t test p < 2.2 × 10^-16 with portability gains ranging from 5% to 28%) for both dichotomous COPD traits and across all smoking strata. Our study demonstrates the value of PTRS for improved cross-ethnic portability compared to PRS in predicting COPD risk.

Leveraging LD eigenvalue regression to improve the estimation of SNP heritability and confounding inflation

Heritability is a fundamental concept in genetic studies, measuring the genetic contribution to complex traits and bringing insights about disease mechanisms. The advance of high-throughput technologies has provided many resources for heritability estimation. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression (LDSC) estimates both heritability and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification, among single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) by using only summary statistics released from genome-wide association studies. However, only partial information in the LD matrix is utilized in LDSC, leading to loss in precision. In this study, we propose LD eigenvalue regression (LDER), an extension of LDSC, by making full use of the LD information. Compared to state-of-the-art heritability estimating methods, LDER provides more accurate estimates of SNP heritability and better distinguishes the inflation caused by polygenicity and confounding effects. We demonstrate the advantages of LDER both theoretically and with extensive simulations. We applied LDER to 814 complex traits from UK Biobank, and LDER identified 363 significantly heritable phenotypes, among which 97 were not identified by LDSC.

Polygenic risk for prostate cancer: Decreasing relative risk with age but little impact on absolute risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for a variety of diseases have recently been shown to have relative risks that depend on age, and genetic relative risks decrease with increasing age. A refined understanding of the age dependency of PRSs for a disease is important for personalized risk predictions and risk stratification. To further evaluate how the PRS relative risk for prostate cancer depends on age, we refined analyses for a validated PRS for prostate cancer by using 64,274 prostate cancer cases and 46,432 controls of diverse ancestry (82.8% European, 9.8% African American, 3.8% Latino, 2.8% Asian, and 0.8% Ghanaian). Our strategy applied a novel weighted proportional hazards model to case-control data to fully utilize age to refine how the relative risk decreased with age. We found significantly greater relative risks for younger men (age 30-55 years) compared with older men (70-88 years) for both relative risk per standard deviation of the PRS and dichotomized according to the upper 90th percentile of the PRS distribution. For the largest European ancestral group that could provide reliable resolution, the log-relative risk decreased approximately linearly from age 50 to age 75. Despite strong evidence of age-dependent genetic relative risk, our results suggest that absolute risk predictions differed little from predictions that assumed a constant relative risk over ages, from short-term to long-term predictions, simplifying implementation of risk discussions into clinical practice.

Can adult polygenic scores improve prediction of body mass index in childhood?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Modelling genetic pre-disposition may identify children at risk of obesity. However, most polygenic scores (PGSs) have been derived in adults, and lack validation during childhood. This study compared the utility of existing large-scale adult-derived PGSs to predict common anthropometric traits (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and body fat) in children and adults, and examined whether childhood BMI prediction could be improved by combining PGSs and non-genetic factors (maternal and earlier child BMI).

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Participants (n = 1365 children, and n = 2094 adults made up of their parents) were drawn from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Children were weighed and measured every two years from 0-1 to 12-13 years, and adults were measured or self-reported measurements were obtained concurrently (average analysed). Participants were genotyped from blood or oral samples, and PGSs were derived based on published genome-wide association studies. We used linear regression to compare the relative utility of these PGSs to predict their respective traits at different ages.

RESULTS

BMI PGSs explained up to 12% of child BMI z-score variance in 10-13 year olds, compared with up to 15% in adults. PGSs for waist circumference and body fat explained less variance (up to 8%). An interaction between BMI PGSs and puberty (p = 0.001-0.002) suggests the effect of some variants may differ across the life course. Individual BMI measures across childhood predicted 10-60% of the variance in BMI at 12-13 years, and maternal BMI and BMI PGS each added 1-9% above this.

CONCLUSION

Adult-derived PGSs for BMI, particularly those derived by modelling between-variant interactions, may be useful for predicting BMI during adolescence with similar accuracy to that obtained in adulthood. The level of precision presented here to predict BMI during childhood may be relevant to public health, but is likely to be less useful for individual clinical purposes.

Improving polygenic prediction in ancestrally diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have attenuated cross-population predictive performance. As existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been conducted predominantly in individuals of European descent, the limited transferability of PRS reduces their clinical value in non-European populations, and may exacerbate healthcare disparities. Recent efforts to level ancestry imbalance in genomic research have expanded the scale of non-European GWAS, although most remain underpowered. Here, we present a new PRS construction method, PRS-CSx, which improves cross-population polygenic prediction by integrating GWAS summary statistics from multiple populations. PRS-CSx couples genetic effects across populations via a shared continuous shrinkage (CS) prior, enabling more accurate effect size estimation by sharing information between summary statistics and leveraging linkage disequilibrium diversity across discovery samples, while inheriting computational efficiency and robustness from PRS-CS. We show that PRS-CSx outperforms alternative methods across traits with a wide range of genetic architectures, cross-population genetic overlaps and discovery GWAS sample sizes in simulations, and improves the prediction of quantitative traits and schizophrenia risk in non-European populations.

Development of a clinical polygenic risk score assay and reporting workflow

Implementation of polygenic risk scores (PRS) may improve disease prevention and management but poses several challenges: the construction of clinically valid assays, interpretation for individual patients, and the development of clinical workflows and resources to support their use in patient care. For the ongoing Veterans Affairs Genomic Medicine at Veterans Affairs (GenoVA) Study we developed a clinical genotype array-based assay for six published PRS. We used data from 36,423 Mass General Brigham Biobank participants and adjustment for population structure to replicate known PRS-disease associations and published PRS thresholds for a disease odds ratio (OR) of 2 (ranging from 1.75 (95% CI: 1.57-1.95) for type 2 diabetes to 2.38 (95% CI: 2.07-2.73) for breast cancer). After confirming the high performance and robustness of the pipeline for use as a clinical assay for individual patients, we analyzed the first 227 prospective samples from the GenoVA Study and found that the frequency of PRS corresponding to published OR > 2 ranged from 13/227 (5.7%) for colorectal cancer to 23/150 (15.3%) for prostate cancer. In addition to the PRS laboratory report, we developed physician- and patient-oriented informational materials to support decision-making about PRS results. Our work illustrates the generalizable development of a clinical PRS assay for multiple conditions and the technical, reporting and clinical workflow challenges for implementing PRS information in the clinic.

Polygenic risk scores for CARDINAL study

The Cardiometabolic Disorders in African-Ancestry Populations (CARDINAL) study site is a well-powered, first-of-its-kind resource for developing, refining and validating methods for research into polygenic risk scores that accounts for local ancestry, to improve risk prediction in diverse populations.

Stability of polygenic scores across discovery genome-wide association studies

Polygenic scores (PGS) are commonly evaluated in terms of their predictive accuracy at the population level by the proportion of phenotypic variance they explain. To be useful for precision medicine applications, they also need to be evaluated at the individual level when phenotypes are not necessarily already known. We investigated the stability of PGS in European American (EUR) and African American (AFR)-ancestry individuals from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort and the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study using different discovery genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and height. We found that pairs of EUR-ancestry GWAS for the same trait had genetic correlations >0.92. However, PGS calculated from pairs of same-ancestry and different-ancestry GWAS had correlations that ranged from <0.01 to 0.74. PGS stability was greater for height than for PTSD or T2D. A series of height GWAS in the UK Biobank suggested that correlation between PGS is strongly dependent on the extent of sample overlap between the discovery GWAS. Focusing on the upper end of the PGS distribution, different discovery GWAS do not consistently identify the same individuals in the upper quantiles, with the best case being 60% of individuals above the 80th percentile of PGS overlapping from one height GWAS to another. The degree of overlap decreases sharply as higher quantiles, less heritable traits, and different-ancestry GWAS are considered. PGS computed from different discovery GWAS have only modest correlation at the individual level, underscoring the need to proceed cautiously with integrating PGS into precision medicine applications.

Genome-wide risk prediction of common diseases across ancestries in one million people

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) measure genetic disease susceptibility by combining risk effects across the genome. For coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and breast and prostate cancer, we performed cross-ancestry evaluation of genome-wide PRSs in six biobanks in Europe, the United States, and Asia. We studied transferability of these highly polygenic, genome-wide PRSs across global ancestries, within European populations with different health-care systems, and local population substructures in a population isolate. All four PRSs had similar accuracy across European and Asian populations, with poorer transferability in the smaller group of individuals of African ancestry. The PRSs had highly similar effect sizes in different populations of European ancestry, and in early- and late-settlement regions with different recent population bottlenecks in Finland. Comparing genome-wide PRSs to PRSs containing a smaller number of variants, the highly polygenic, genome-wide PRSs generally displayed higher effect sizes and better transferability across global ancestries. Our findings indicate that in the populations investigated, the current genome-wide polygenic scores for common diseases have potential for clinical utility within different health-care settings for individuals of European ancestry, but that the utility in individuals of African ancestry is currently much lower.