401
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Gorgens EB, Nunes MH, Jackson T, Coomes D, Keller M, Reis CR, Valbuena R, Rosette J, de Almeida DRA, Gimenez B, Cantinho R, Motta AZ, Assis M, de Souza Pereira FR, Spanner G, Higuchi N, Ometto JP. Resource availability and disturbance shape maximum tree height across the Amazon. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:177-189. [PMID: 33118242 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Revised: 10/15/2020] [Accepted: 10/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Tall trees are key drivers of ecosystem processes in tropical forest, but the controls on the distribution of the very tallest trees remain poorly understood. The recent discovery of grove of giant trees over 80 meters tall in the Amazon forest requires a reevaluation of current thinking. We used high-resolution airborne laser surveys to measure canopy height across 282,750 ha of old-growth and second-growth forests randomly sampling the entire Brazilian Amazon. We investigated how resources and disturbances shape the maximum height distribution across the Brazilian Amazon through the relations between the occurrence of giant trees and environmental factors. Common drivers of height development are fundamentally different from those influencing the occurrence of giant trees. We found that changes in wind and light availability drive giant tree distribution as much as precipitation and temperature, together shaping the forest structure of the Brazilian Amazon. The location of giant trees should be carefully considered by policymakers when identifying important hot spots for the conservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric B Gorgens
- Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Diamantina, MG, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Bruno Gimenez
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama City, Panama
| | | | - Alline Z Motta
- Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Diamantina, MG, Brazil
| | - Mauro Assis
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | | | - Gustavo Spanner
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Niro Higuchi
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Jean Pierre Ometto
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
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402
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Canelas T, Thomsen E, McDermott D, Sternberg E, Thomas MB, Worrall E. Spatial targeting of Screening + Eave tubes (SET), a house-based malaria control intervention, in Côte d'Ivoire: A geostatistical modelling study. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 1:e0000030. [PMID: 36962107 PMCID: PMC10021308 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
New malaria control tools and tailoring interventions to local contexts are needed to reduce the malaria burden and meet global goals. The housing modification, screening plus a targeted house-based insecticide delivery system called the In2Care® Eave Tubes, has been shown to reduce clinical malaria in a large cluster randomised controlled trial. However, the widescale suitability of this approach is unknown. We aimed to predict household suitability and define the most appropriate locations for ground-truthing where Screening + Eave Tubes (SET) could be implemented across Côte d'Ivoire. We classified DHS sampled households into suitable for SET based on the walls and roof materials. We fitted a Bayesian beta-binomial logistic model using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict suitability of SET and to define priority locations for ground-truthing and to calculate the potential population coverage and costs. Based on currently available data on house type and malaria infection rate, 31% of the total population and 17.5% of the population in areas of high malaria transmission live in areas suitable for SET. The estimated cost of implementing SET in suitable high malaria transmission areas would be $46m ($13m -$108m). Ground-truthing and more studies should be conducted to evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of SET in these settings. The study provides an example of implementing strategies to reflect local socio-economic and epidemiological factors, and move beyond blanket, one-size-fits-all strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiago Canelas
- Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | - Edward Thomsen
- Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel McDermott
- Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | - Eleanore Sternberg
- Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew B Thomas
- Department of Entomology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, United States of America
- York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, Yorkshire, United Kingdom
| | - Eve Worrall
- Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Merseyside, United Kingdom
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403
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Hassani A, Azapagic A, Shokri N. Predicting long-term dynamics of soil salinity and sodicity on a global scale. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:33017-33027. [PMID: 33318212 PMCID: PMC7776813 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013771117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Knowledge of spatiotemporal distribution and likelihood of (re)occurrence of salt-affected soils is crucial to our understanding of land degradation and for planning effective remediation strategies in face of future climatic uncertainties. However, conventional methods used for tracking the variability of soil salinity/sodicity are extensively localized, making predictions on a global scale difficult. Here, we employ machine-learning techniques and a comprehensive set of climatic, topographic, soil, and remote sensing data to develop models capable of making predictions of soil salinity (expressed as electrical conductivity of saturated soil extract) and sodicity (measured as soil exchangeable sodium percentage) at different longitudes, latitudes, soil depths, and time periods. Using these predictive models, we provide a global-scale quantitative and gridded dataset characterizing different spatiotemporal facets of soil salinity and sodicity variability over the past four decades at a ∼1-km resolution. Analysis of this dataset reveals that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm2 located in nonfrigid zones has been salt-affected with a frequency of reoccurrence in at least three-fourths of the years between 1980 and 2018, with 0.16 Mkm2 of this area being croplands. Although the net changes in soil salinity/sodicity and the total area of salt-affected soils have been geographically highly variable, the continents with the highest salt-affected areas are Asia (particularly China, Kazakhstan, and Iran), Africa, and Australia. The proposed method can also be applied for quantifying the spatiotemporal variability of other dynamic soil properties, such as soil nutrients, organic carbon content, and pH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amirhossein Hassani
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Analytical Science, The University of Manchester, M13 9PL Manchester, United Kingdom;
| | - Adisa Azapagic
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Analytical Science, The University of Manchester, M13 9PL Manchester, United Kingdom;
| | - Nima Shokri
- Institute of Geo-Hydroinformatics, Hamburg University of Technology, 21073 Hamburg, Germany
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404
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Winter Inputs Buffer Streamflow Sensitivity to Snowpack Losses in the Salt River Watershed in the Lower Colorado River Basin. WATER 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/w13010003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Recent streamflow declines in the Upper Colorado River Basin raise concerns about the sensitivity of water supply for 40 million people to rising temperatures. Yet, other studies in western US river basins present a paradox: streamflow has not consistently declined with warming and snow loss. A potential explanation for this lack of consistency is warming-induced production of winter runoff when potential evaporative losses are low. This mechanism is more likely in basins at lower elevations or latitudes with relatively warm winter temperatures and intermittent snowpacks. We test whether this accounts for streamflow patterns in nine gaged basins of the Salt River and its tributaries, which is a sub-basin in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). We develop a basin-scale model that separates snow and rainfall inputs and simulates snow accumulation and melt using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. Despite significant warming from 1968–2011 and snow loss in many of the basins, annual and seasonal streamflow did not decline. Between 25% and 50% of annual streamflow is generated in winter (NDJF) when runoff ratios are generally higher and potential evapotranspiration losses are one-third of potential losses in spring (MAMJ). Sub-annual streamflow responses to winter inputs were larger and more efficient than spring and summer responses and their frequencies and magnitudes increased in 1968–2011 compared to 1929–1967. In total, 75% of the largest winter events were associated with atmospheric rivers, which can produce large cool-season streamflow peaks. We conclude that temperature-induced snow loss in this LCRB sub-basin was moderated by enhanced winter hydrological inputs and streamflow production.
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405
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Exploratory Analysis of Driving Force of Wildfires in Australia: An Application of Machine Learning within Google Earth Engine. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13010010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Recent studies have suggested that due to climate change, the number of wildfires across the globe have been increasing and continue to grow even more. The recent massive wildfires, which hit Australia during the 2019–2020 summer season, raised questions to what extent the risk of wildfires can be linked to various climate, environmental, topographical, and social factors and how to predict fire occurrences to take preventive measures. Hence, the main objective of this study was to develop an automatized and cloud-based workflow for generating a training dataset of fire events at a continental level using freely available remote sensing data with a reasonable computational expense for injecting into machine learning models. As a result, a data-driven model was set up in Google Earth Engine platform, which is publicly accessible and open for further adjustments. The training dataset was applied to different machine learning algorithms, i.e., Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Classification and Regression Tree. The findings show that Random Forest outperformed other algorithms and hence it was used further to explore the driving factors using variable importance analysis. The study indicates the probability of fire occurrences across Australia as well as identifies the potential driving factors of Australian wildfires for the 2019–2020 summer season. The methodical approach and achieved results and drawn conclusions can be of great importance to policymakers, environmentalists, and climate change researchers, among others.
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406
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A Long-Term, 1-km Resolution Daily Meteorological Dataset for Modeling and Mapping Permafrost in Canada. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11121363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate warming is causing permafrost thaw and there is an urgent need to understand the spatial distribution of permafrost and its potential changes with climate. This study developed a long-term (1901–2100), 1-km resolution daily meteorological dataset (Met1km) for modeling and mapping permafrost at high spatial resolutions in Canada. Met1km includes eight climate variables (daily minimum, maximum, and mean air temperatures, precipitation, vapor pressure, wind speed, solar radiation, and downward longwave radiation) and is suitable to drive process-based permafrost and other land-surface models. Met1km was developed based on four coarser gridded meteorological datasets for the historical period. Future values were developed using the output of a new Canadian regional climate model under medium-low and high emission scenarios. These datasets were downscaled to 1-km resolution using the re-baselining method based on the WorldClim2 dataset as spatial templates. We assessed Met1km by comparing it to climate station observations across Canada and a gridded monthly anomaly time-series dataset. The accuracy of Met1km is similar to or better than the four coarser gridded datasets. The errors in long-term averages and average seasonal patterns are small. The error occurs mainly in day-to-day fluctuations, thus the error decreases significantly when averaged over 5 to 10 days. Met1km, as a data generating system, is relatively small in data volume, flexible to use, and easy to update when new or improved source datasets are available. The method can also be used to generate similar datasets for other regions, even for the entire global landmass.
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407
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Evaluation of Sixteen Gridded Precipitation Datasets over the Caribbean Region Using Gauge Observations. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11121334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The existence of several gridded precipitation products (GPP) has facilitated studies related to climate change, climate modeling, as well as a better understanding of the physical processes underpinning this key variable. Due to complexities in estimating rainfall, gridded datasets exhibit different levels of accuracy across regions, even when they are developed at relatively high resolution or using sophisticated procedures. The performance of 16 GPP are evaluated over the Caribbean region, which includes the Caribbean Islands, and portions of Central South America. Monthly data for sixty weather stations are used as a reference for the period 1983–2010. The 16 GPP include six products based on station data only, two that combine ground station and satellite information, two merging station and reanalysis information, four based on reanalysis, and two using multisource information. The temporal resolution of the GPP ranged between daily and monthly and spatial resolution from 0.033° to 0.5°. The methodological approach employed combined a comparison of regional and sub-regional precipitation annual cycles, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) index, as well as several metrics derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Overall, the best performances were obtained from GPCC025 and MSWEP2, likely reflecting the positive impact of the large number of station data utilized in their development. It is also demonstrated that a higher spatial resolution does not always mean better accuracy. There is a need for this kind of assessment when undertaking climate studies in regions like the Caribbean where resolution is a significant consideration. ERA5 performed best among the reanalyses analyzed and has the potential to be used to develop regionally based GPP by applying bias correction or downscaling techniques. The methodological approach employed provides a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of GPP in the Caribbean region.
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408
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Shaw WR, Holmdahl IE, Itoe MA, Werling K, Marquette M, Paton DG, Singh N, Buckee CO, Childs LM, Catteruccia F. Multiple blood feeding in mosquitoes shortens the Plasmodium falciparum incubation period and increases malaria transmission potential. PLoS Pathog 2020; 16:e1009131. [PMID: 33382824 PMCID: PMC7774842 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2020] [Accepted: 11/08/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Many mosquito species, including the major malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, naturally undergo multiple reproductive cycles of blood feeding, egg development and egg laying in their lifespan. Such complex mosquito behavior is regularly overlooked when mosquitoes are experimentally infected with malaria parasites, limiting our ability to accurately describe potential effects on transmission. Here, we examine how Plasmodium falciparum development and transmission potential is impacted when infected mosquitoes feed an additional time. We measured P. falciparum oocyst size and performed sporozoite time course analyses to determine the parasite's extrinsic incubation period (EIP), i.e. the time required by parasites to reach infectious sporozoite stages, in An. gambiae females blood fed either once or twice. An additional blood feed at 3 days post infection drastically accelerates oocyst growth rates, causing earlier sporozoite accumulation in the salivary glands, thereby shortening the EIP (reduction of 2.3 ± 0.4 days). Moreover, parasite growth is further accelerated in transgenic mosquitoes with reduced reproductive capacity, which mimic genetic modifications currently proposed in population suppression gene drives. We incorporate our shortened EIP values into a measure of transmission potential, the basic reproduction number R0, and find the average R0 is higher (range: 10.1%-12.1% increase) across sub-Saharan Africa than when using traditional EIP measurements. These data suggest that malaria elimination may be substantially more challenging and that younger mosquitoes or those with reduced reproductive ability may provide a larger contribution to infection than currently believed. Our findings have profound implications for current and future mosquito control interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- W. Robert Shaw
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Inga E. Holmdahl
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Maurice A. Itoe
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Kristine Werling
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Meghan Marquette
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Douglas G. Paton
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Naresh Singh
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Caroline O. Buckee
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Lauren M. Childs
- Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Flaminia Catteruccia
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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409
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Tepley AJ, Hood SM, Keyes CR, Sala A. Forest restoration treatments in a ponderosa pine forest enhance physiological activity and growth under climatic stress. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02188. [PMID: 32492227 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2019] [Revised: 01/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
As the climate warms, drought will increasingly occur under elevated temperatures, placing forest ecosystems at growing risk of extensive dieback and mortality. In some cases, increases in tree density following early 20th-century fire suppression may exacerbate this risk. Treatments designed to restore historical stand structure and enhance resistance to high-severity fire might also alleviate drought stress by reducing competition, but the duration of these effects and the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. To elucidate these mechanisms, we evaluate tree growth, mortality, and tree-ring stable-carbon isotope responses to stand-density reduction treatments with and without prescribed fire in a ponderosa pine forest of western Montana. Moderate and heavier cutting experiments (basal area reductions of 35% and 56%, respectively) were initiated in 1992, followed by prescribed burning in a subset of the thinned units. All treatments led to a growth release that persisted to the time of resampling. The treatments had little effect on climate-growth relationships, but they markedly altered seasonal carbon isotope signals and their relationship to climate. In burned and unburned treatments, carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13 C) increased in the earlywood (EW) and decreased in the latewood (LW) relative to the control. The sensitivity of LW Δ13 C to late-summer climate also increased in all treatments, but not in the control. Such increased sensitivity indicates that the reduction in competition enabled trees to continue to fix carbon for new stem growth, even when the climate became sufficiently stressful to stop new assimilation in slower-growing trees in untreated units. These findings would have been masked had we not separated EW and LW. The importance of faster growth and enhanced carbon assimilation under late-summer climatic stress became evident in the second decade post-treatment, when mountain pine beetle activity increased locally, and tree mortality rates in the controls of both experiments increased to more than twice those in their respective treatments. These findings highlight that, when thinning is used to restore historical forest structure or increase resistance to high-severity fire, there will likely be additional benefits of enhanced growth and physiological activity under climatic stress, and the effects may persist for more than two decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alan J Tepley
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
| | - Sharon M Hood
- Fire, Fuel and Smoke Science Program, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, 59808, USA
| | - Christopher R Keyes
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
| | - Anna Sala
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
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410
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Yin S. Biomass burning spatiotemporal variations over South and Southeast Asia. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 145:106153. [PMID: 33002702 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2020] [Revised: 09/16/2020] [Accepted: 09/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer active fire and land use products were integrated to extract and classify biomass burning (BB) data for South Asia (SA) and Southeast Asia (SEA). Several trend and geographic distribution analyses were conducted at the grid (0.25° × 0.25°) and regional scales. As the principal local form of BB, crop residue burning (CRB) in SA increased by 844 spots/yr, and the Mann-Kendall (MK) τ reached 0.61. Additionally, the CRB in Punjab-Haryana, a region a well-known for severest CRB, presented a significant declining trend. BB in mainland SEA was much more intense and was dominated by forest and shrubland fires. Forest fires in mainland SEA declined at a rate of -209 spots/yr, and shrubland fire conversely grew at a rate of 803 spots/yr, which was likely related to the dramatic land cover change induced by the local swidden agriculture. Unlike other regions, BB in equatorial SEA primarily occurred in the second half of the year (August to October), and it was extremely vulnerable to El Niño events. When the annual sea surface temperature anomalies within the Niño 3 region improved by 1 °C, the annual BB spots and fire radiative power in equatorial SEA increased by 5.18 × 104 and 2.40 × 106 MW, respectively. Although the interannual variations in equatorial SEA were dramatic, the robust Siegel's repeated median estimator still revealed that equatorial SEA BB significantly declined by -1825 spots/yr. This regional decline reflects government endeavors to curb indigenous BB. However, regions with enhanced BB still need to draw more attention, and it is imperative for the Indonesian government to take substantial measures to reduce anthropogenic fire sources during El Niño events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuai Yin
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 3058506, Japan.
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411
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Huang C, Yang Q, Guo Y, Zhang Y, Guo L. The pattern, change and driven factors of vegetation cover in the Qin Mountains region. Sci Rep 2020; 10:20591. [PMID: 33239641 PMCID: PMC7689444 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-75845-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2020] [Accepted: 10/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The Qin Mountains region is one of the most important climatic boundaries that divide the North and South of China. This study investigates vegetation covers changes across the Qin Mountains region over the past three decades based on the Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which were extracted from the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Our results show that the NDVI across the Qin Mountains have increased from 0.624 to 0.776 with annual change rates of 0.0053/a over the past 32 years. Besides, its abrupt point occurred in 2006 and the change rates after this point increased by 0.0094/a (R2 = 0.8159, p < 0.01) (2006-2018), which is higher than that in 1987-1999 and 1999-2006. The mean NDVI have changed in different elevation ranges. The NDVI in the areas below 3300 m increased, such increased is especially most obviously in the cropland. Most of the forest and grassland locate above 3300 m with higher increased rate. Before 2006, the temperature and reference evapotranspiration (PET) were the important driven factors of NDVI change below 3300 m. After afforestation, human activities become important factors that influenced NDVI changes in the low elevation area, but hydro-climatic factors still play an important role in NDVI increase in the higher elevations area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenlu Huang
- College of Urban and Environment, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China
| | - Qinke Yang
- College of Urban and Environment, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China.
| | - Yuhan Guo
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Yongqiang Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Linan Guo
- Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
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412
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Bisbing SM, Urza AK, Buma BJ, Cooper DJ, Matocq M, Angert AL. Can long‐lived species keep pace with climate change? Evidence of local persistence potential in a widespread conifer. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah M. Bisbing
- Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Science Program in Ecology, Evolution, & Conservation Biology University of Nevada ‐ Reno Reno NV USA
| | - Alexandra K. Urza
- Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Science Program in Ecology, Evolution, & Conservation Biology University of Nevada ‐ Reno Reno NV USA
- Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service Reno NV USA
| | - Brian J. Buma
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver CO USA
| | - David J. Cooper
- Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship & Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA
| | - Marjorie Matocq
- Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Science Program in Ecology, Evolution, & Conservation Biology University of Nevada ‐ Reno Reno NV USA
| | - Amy L. Angert
- Departments of Botany and Zoology University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
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413
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Ingenloff K, Peterson AT. Incorporating time into the traditional correlational distributional modelling framework: A proof‐of‐concept using the Wood Thrush
Hylocichla mustelina. Methods Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kate Ingenloff
- University of Kansas Biodiversity Institute Lawrence KS USA
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414
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Elbeltagi A, Aslam MR, Malik A, Mehdinejadiani B, Srivastava A, Bhatia AS, Deng J. The impact of climate changes on the water footprint of wheat and maize production in the Nile Delta, Egypt. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 743:140770. [PMID: 32679501 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2020] [Revised: 06/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/04/2020] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Spatial-temporal information of different water resources is essential to rationally manage, sustainably develop, and optimally utilize water. This study focused on simulating future water footprint (WF) of two agronomically important crops (i.e., wheat and maize) using deep neural networks (DNN) method in Nile delta. DNN model was calibrated and validated by using 2006-2014 and 2015-2017 datasets. Moreover, future data (2022-2040) were obtained from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, and incorporated into DNN prediction set. The findings showed that determination-coefficient between historical-predicted crop evapotranspiration (ETc) varied from 0.92 to 0.97 for two crops. The yield prediction values of wheat-maize deviated within the ranges of -3.21% to 3.47% and -4.93% to 5.88%, respectively. Based on the ensemble of RCP, precipitation was forecasted to decease by 667.40% and 261.73% in winter and summer in western as compared to eastern, respectively, which will ultimately be dropped to 105.02% and 60.87%, respectively parallel to historical. Therefore, the substantial fluctuations in precipitation caused an obvious decrease in green WF of wheat (i.e., 24.96% and 37.44%) in western and eastern, respectively. Additionally, for maize, it induced a 103.93% decrease in western and an 8.96% increase in eastern. Furthermore, increasing ETc by 8.46% and 12.45% gave rise to substantially increasing (i.e., 8.96% and 17.21%) in western for wheat-maize compared to the east, respectively. Likewise, grey wheat-maize WF findings reveals that there was an increase of 3.07% and 5.02% in western as compared to -14.51% and 12.37% in eastern. Hence, our results highly recommend the optimal use of the eastern delta to save blue-water by 16.58% and 40.25% of total requirements for wheat-maize in contrast to others. Overall, the current research framework and results derived from the adopted methodology will help in optimal planning of future water under climate change in the agricultural sector.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Elbeltagi
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; Agricultural Engineering Dept., Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt.
| | - Muhammad Rizwan Aslam
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
| | - Anurag Malik
- Punjab Agricultural University, Regional Research Station, Bathinda 151001, Punjab, India.
| | - Behrouz Mehdinejadiani
- Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
| | - Ankur Srivastava
- School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
| | - Amandeep Singh Bhatia
- Chitkara University Institute of Engineering and Technology, Chitkara University, Punjab, India.
| | - Jinsong Deng
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
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415
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Fendrich AN, Barretto A, de Faria VG, de Bastiani F, Tenneson K, Guedes Pinto LF, Sparovek G. Disclosing contrasting scenarios for future land cover in Brazil: Results from a high-resolution spatiotemporal model. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 742:140477. [PMID: 32623165 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Gaining information on the dynamics of land cover changes is a valuable step towards improving practical conservation actions. In recent years, the Brazilian presidential elections in 2018 and the recovery from one of the nation's worst economic recessions defined a political scenario that has been causing shifts in the patterns of land cover change. A variety of national plans for the near-future exist and include the construction of new roads connecting remote Amazonian areas and large dams that could flood up to 10 million hectares. These development plans threaten environmental conservation, but the potential effects on the local or regional land cover are mostly unknown. In this work, we construct a model to evaluate the possible consequences of policy actions on land cover dynamics in the near-future at a high-resolution scale. The regression model extracts the historical relationships between land cover and spatial drivers of change, and its extrapolation for the future enables the simulation of scenarios for the national plans currently discussed in Brazil. We also simulate three scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which makes contrasting management assumptions. The resulting maps indicate that considerable changes in land cover composition and configuration may occur even in a short period. The historical Brazilian economic forces make the decrease in natural vegetation probabilities challenging to stop even in an environmentally oriented scenario, where plans for the construction of new infrastructure are abruptly interrupted. Our results also indicate that environmental degradation cannot be prevented without coordinated efforts between public agencies with a broad diversity of development viewpoints.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alberto Barretto
- University of São Paulo, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, Brazil
| | | | - Fernanda de Bastiani
- Federal University of Pernambuco, Department of Statistics, 50740-540 Recife, PE, Brazil
| | - Karis Tenneson
- Spatial Informatics Group - SIG-GIS, 2529 Yolanda Ct, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA
| | | | - Gerd Sparovek
- University of São Paulo, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, Brazil
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416
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A climatic dipole drives short- and long-term patterns of postfire forest recovery in the western United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:29730-29737. [PMID: 33168732 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007434117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Researchers are increasingly examining patterns and drivers of postfire forest recovery amid growing concern that climate change and intensifying fires will trigger ecosystem transformations. Diminished seed availability and postfire drought have emerged as key constraints on conifer recruitment. However, the spatial and temporal extent to which recurring modes of climatic variability shape patterns of postfire recovery remain largely unexplored. Here, we identify a north-south dipole in annual climatic moisture deficit anomalies across the Interior West of the US and characterize its influence on forest recovery from fire. We use annually resolved establishment models from dendrochronological records to correlate this climatic dipole with short-term postfire juvenile recruitment. We also examine longer-term recovery trajectories using Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 989 burned plots. We show that annual postfire ponderosa pine recruitment probabilities in the northern Rocky Mountains (NR) and the southwestern US (SW) track the strength of the dipole, while declining overall due to increasing aridity. This indicates that divergent recovery trajectories may be triggered concurrently across large spatial scales: favorable conditions in the SW can correspond to drought in the NR that inhibits ponderosa pine establishment, and vice versa. The imprint of this climatic dipole is manifest for years postfire, as evidenced by dampened long-term likelihoods of juvenile ponderosa pine presence in areas that experienced postfire drought. These findings underscore the importance of climatic variability at multiple spatiotemporal scales in driving cross-regional patterns of forest recovery and have implications for understanding ecosystem transformations and species range dynamics under global change.
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417
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Reed CC, Merrill AG, Drew WM, Christman B, Hutchinson RA, Keszey L, Odell M, Swanson S, Verburg PSJ, Wilcox J, Hart SC, Sullivan BW. Montane Meadows: A Soil Carbon Sink or Source? Ecosystems 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-020-00572-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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418
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Leal CG, Lennox GD, Ferraz SFB, Ferreira J, Gardner TA, Thomson JR, Berenguer E, Lees AC, Hughes RM, Mac Nally R, Aragão LEOC, de Brito JG, Castello L, Garrett RD, Hamada N, Juen L, Leitão RP, Louzada J, Morello TF, Moura NG, Nessimian JL, Oliveira-Junior JMB, Oliveira VHF, de Oliveira VC, Parry L, Pompeu PS, Solar RRC, Zuanon J, Barlow J. Integrated terrestrial-freshwater planning doubles conservation of tropical aquatic species. Science 2020; 370:117-121. [PMID: 33004520 DOI: 10.1126/science.aba7580] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Conservation initiatives overwhelmingly focus on terrestrial biodiversity, and little is known about the freshwater cobenefits of terrestrial conservation actions. We sampled more than 1500 terrestrial and freshwater species in the Amazon and simulated conservation for species from both realms. Prioritizations based on terrestrial species yielded on average just 22% of the freshwater benefits achieved through freshwater-focused conservation. However, by using integrated cross-realm planning, freshwater benefits could be increased by up to 600% for a 1% reduction in terrestrial benefits. Where freshwater biodiversity data are unavailable but aquatic connectivity is accounted for, freshwater benefits could still be doubled for negligible losses of terrestrial coverage. Conservation actions are urgently needed to improve the status of freshwater species globally. Our results suggest that such gains can be achieved without compromising terrestrial conservation goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cecília G Leal
- Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, CEP 13418-900, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. .,Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
| | - Gareth D Lennox
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
| | - Silvio F B Ferraz
- Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, CEP 13418-900, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil
| | - Joice Ferreira
- EMBRAPA Amazônia Oriental, CEP 66095-100, Belém, Pará, Brazil
| | - Toby A Gardner
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Linegatan 87D, 11523, Stockholm Sweden
| | - James R Thomson
- Department of Environment, Land, Water, and Planning, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Heidelberg, Vic, Australia
| | - Erika Berenguer
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.,Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Alexander C Lees
- Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD, UK.,Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Robert M Hughes
- Amnis Opes Institute, Corvallis, OR, USA.,Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Ralph Mac Nally
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
| | - Luiz E O C Aragão
- Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Group (TREES), Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research-INPE, Avenida dos Astronautas, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.,College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Janaina G de Brito
- Escola Estadual Maria Miranda Araújo, Secretaria de Educação do Estado de Mato Grosso, Av. Aeroporto, s/n, CEP 78336-000, Colniza, MT, Brazil
| | - Leandro Castello
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Rachael D Garrett
- Environmental Policy Lab, Departments of Environmental System Science and Humanities, Social, and Political Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Neusa Hamada
- Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Avenida André Araújo, 2.936, Petrópolis, CEP 69067-375, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Leandro Juen
- Laboratório de Ecologia e Conservação, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Pará, Rua Augusto Correia, No. 1, Bairro Guamá, CEP 66075-110, Belém, PA, Brazil
| | - Rafael P Leitão
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Antônio Carlos 6627, CP 486, CEP 31270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
| | - Julio Louzada
- Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
| | | | | | - Jorge L Nessimian
- Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Av. Carlos Chagas Filho 373, CEP 21941-590, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - José Max B Oliveira-Junior
- Instituto de Ciências e Tecnologia das Águas, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Rua Vera Paz, s/n (Unidade Tapajós), Bairro Salé, CEP 68040-255, Santarém, PA, Brazil
| | - Victor Hugo F Oliveira
- Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
| | - Vívian C de Oliveira
- Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Avenida André Araújo, 2.936, Petrópolis, CEP 69067-375, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Luke Parry
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Paulo S Pompeu
- Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil
| | - Ricardo R C Solar
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Antônio Carlos 6627, CP 486, CEP 31270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
| | - Jansen Zuanon
- Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Avenida André Araújo, 2.936, Petrópolis, CEP 69067-375, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Jos Barlow
- Departamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900, Lavras, MG, Brazil.,Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
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419
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Lembrechts JJ, Aalto J, Ashcroft MB, De Frenne P, Kopecký M, Lenoir J, Luoto M, Maclean IMD, Roupsard O, Fuentes-Lillo E, García RA, Pellissier L, Pitteloud C, Alatalo JM, Smith SW, Björk RG, Muffler L, Ratier Backes A, Cesarz S, Gottschall F, Okello J, Urban J, Plichta R, Svátek M, Phartyal SS, Wipf S, Eisenhauer N, Pușcaș M, Turtureanu PD, Varlagin A, Dimarco RD, Jump AS, Randall K, Dorrepaal E, Larson K, Walz J, Vitale L, Svoboda M, Finger Higgens R, Halbritter AH, Curasi SR, Klupar I, Koontz A, Pearse WD, Simpson E, Stemkovski M, Jessen Graae B, Vedel Sørensen M, Høye TT, Fernández Calzado MR, Lorite J, Carbognani M, Tomaselli M, Forte TGW, Petraglia A, Haesen S, Somers B, Van Meerbeek K, Björkman MP, Hylander K, Merinero S, Gharun M, Buchmann N, Dolezal J, Matula R, Thomas AD, Bailey JJ, Ghosn D, Kazakis G, de Pablo MA, Kemppinen J, Niittynen P, Rew L, Seipel T, Larson C, Speed JDM, Ardö J, Cannone N, Guglielmin M, Malfasi F, Bader MY, Canessa R, Stanisci A, Kreyling J, Schmeddes J, Teuber L, Aschero V, Čiliak M, Máliš F, De Smedt P, Govaert S, Meeussen C, Vangansbeke P, Gigauri K, Lamprecht A, Pauli H, Steinbauer K, Winkler M, Ueyama M, Nuñez MA, Ursu TM, Haider S, Wedegärtner REM, Smiljanic M, Trouillier M, Wilmking M, Altman J, Brůna J, Hederová L, Macek M, Man M, Wild J, Vittoz P, Pärtel M, Barančok P, Kanka R, Kollár J, Palaj A, Barros A, Mazzolari AC, Bauters M, Boeckx P, Benito Alonso JL, Zong S, Di Cecco V, Sitková Z, Tielbörger K, van den Brink L, Weigel R, Homeier J, Dahlberg CJ, Medinets S, Medinets V, De Boeck HJ, Portillo-Estrada M, Verryckt LT, Milbau A, Daskalova GN, Thomas HJD, Myers-Smith IH, Blonder B, Stephan JG, Descombes P, Zellweger F, Frei ER, Heinesch B, Andrews C, Dick J, Siebicke L, Rocha A, Senior RA, Rixen C, Jimenez JJ, Boike J, Pauchard A, Scholten T, Scheffers B, Klinges D, Basham EW, Zhang J, Zhang Z, Géron C, Fazlioglu F, Candan O, Sallo Bravo J, Hrbacek F, Laska K, Cremonese E, Haase P, Moyano FE, Rossi C, Nijs I. SoilTemp: A global database of near-surface temperature. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:6616-6629. [PMID: 32311220 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2020] [Accepted: 03/31/2020] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonas J Lembrechts
- Research Group PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Juha Aalto
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Michael B Ashcroft
- Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
- Australian Museum, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Martin Kopecký
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UR 'Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisées' (EDYSAN, UMR 7058 CNRS-UPJV), Univ. de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ilya M D Maclean
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Olivier Roupsard
- CIRAD, UMR Eco&Sols, Dakar, Senegal
- Eco&Sols, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France
| | - Eduardo Fuentes-Lillo
- Laboratorio de Invasiones Biológicas (LIB), Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago, Chile
- School of Education and Social Sciences, Adventist University of Chile, Chile
| | - Rafael A García
- Laboratorio de Invasiones Biológicas (LIB), Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago, Chile
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Landscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Unit of Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Camille Pitteloud
- Landscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Unit of Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Juha M Alatalo
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Environmental Science Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Stuart W Smith
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Asian School of Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Robert G Björk
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Lena Muffler
- Experimental Plant Ecology, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
- Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - Amanda Ratier Backes
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Simone Cesarz
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Felix Gottschall
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Joseph Okello
- Isotope Bioscience Laboratory - ISOFYS, Ghent University, Gent, Belgium
- Mountains of the Moon University, Fort Portal, Uganda
| | - Josef Urban
- Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Mendel University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
| | - Roman Plichta
- Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Mendel University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Martin Svátek
- Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Mendel University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Shyam S Phartyal
- School of Ecology and Environment Studies, Nalanda University, Rajgir, India
- Department of Forestry and NR, H.N.B. Garhwal University, Srinagar-Garhwal, India
| | - Sonja Wipf
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
- Swiss National Park, Chastè Planta-Wildenberg, Zernez, Switzerland
| | - Nico Eisenhauer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Mihai Pușcaș
- A. Borza Botanical Garden and Department of Taxonomy and Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Geology, Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Pavel D Turtureanu
- A. Borza Botanical Garden, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Andrej Varlagin
- A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
| | - Romina D Dimarco
- Grupo de Ecología de Poblaciones de Insectos, IFAB (INTA - CONICET), Bariloche, Argentina
| | - Alistair S Jump
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK
| | - Krystal Randall
- Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Ellen Dorrepaal
- Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, Abisko, Sweden
| | - Keith Larson
- Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, Abisko, Sweden
| | - Josefine Walz
- Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, Abisko, Sweden
| | - Luca Vitale
- CNR - Institute for Mediterranean Agricultural and Forest Systems, Ercolano (Napoli), Italy
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | | | - Aud H Halbritter
- Department of Biological Sciences and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Salvatore R Curasi
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Ian Klupar
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Austin Koontz
- Department of Biology and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - William D Pearse
- Department of Biology and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - Elizabeth Simpson
- Department of Biology and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Michael Stemkovski
- Department of Biology and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Bente Jessen Graae
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Mia Vedel Sørensen
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Toke T Høye
- Department of Bioscience and Arctic Research Centre, Rønde, Denmark
| | | | - Juan Lorite
- Department of Botany, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Michele Carbognani
- Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Marcello Tomaselli
- Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - T'ai G W Forte
- Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Alessandro Petraglia
- Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Stef Haesen
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Ben Somers
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium
| | | | - Mats P Björkman
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Kristoffer Hylander
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sonia Merinero
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Mana Gharun
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Nina Buchmann
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jiri Dolezal
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science, Department of Botany, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
| | - Radim Matula
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Andrew D Thomas
- Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK
| | | | - Dany Ghosn
- Department of Geo-information in Environmental Management, Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Chania, Chania, Greece
| | - George Kazakis
- Department of Geo-information in Environmental Management, Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Chania, Chania, Greece
| | - Miguel A de Pablo
- Department of Geology, Geography and Environment, University of Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | - Julia Kemppinen
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Pekka Niittynen
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Lisa Rew
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Tim Seipel
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Christian Larson
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - James D M Speed
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jonas Ardö
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Nicoletta Cannone
- Department of Science and High Technology, Insubria University, Como, Italy
| | - Mauro Guglielmin
- Department of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, Insubria University, Varese, Italy
| | - Francesco Malfasi
- Department of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, Insubria University, Varese, Italy
| | - Maaike Y Bader
- Ecological Plant Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Rafaella Canessa
- Ecological Plant Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Angela Stanisci
- EnvixLab, Dipartimento di Bioscienze e Territorio, Università degli Studi del Molise, Termoli, Italy
| | - Juergen Kreyling
- Experimental Plant Ecology, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Jonas Schmeddes
- Experimental Plant Ecology, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Laurenz Teuber
- Experimental Plant Ecology, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Valeria Aschero
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Cuyo, Argentina
- Instituto Argentino de Nivologiá, Glaciologiá y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET, CCT-Mendoza, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Marek Čiliak
- Faculty of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Technical University in Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - František Máliš
- Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Pallieter De Smedt
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Sanne Govaert
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Camille Meeussen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Vangansbeke
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | | | - Andrea Lamprecht
- GLORIA Coordination, Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) & Department of Integrative Biology and Biodiversity Research, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Harald Pauli
- GLORIA Coordination, Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) & Department of Integrative Biology and Biodiversity Research, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Klaus Steinbauer
- GLORIA Coordination, Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) & Department of Integrative Biology and Biodiversity Research, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Manuela Winkler
- GLORIA Coordination, Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) & Department of Integrative Biology and Biodiversity Research, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Masahito Ueyama
- Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Martin A Nuñez
- Grupo de Ecología de Invasiones, INIBIOMA, CONICET/Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Bariloche, Argentina
| | - Tudor-Mihai Ursu
- Institute of Biological Research Cluj-Napoca, National Institute of Research and Development for Biological Sciences, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Sylvia Haider
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Ronja E M Wedegärtner
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Marko Smiljanic
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Mario Trouillier
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Martin Wilmking
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Jan Altman
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Josef Brůna
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Lucia Hederová
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Martin Macek
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Matěj Man
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Jan Wild
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Pascal Vittoz
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Meelis Pärtel
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Peter Barančok
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Róbert Kanka
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Jozef Kollár
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Andrej Palaj
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Agustina Barros
- Instituto Argentino de Nivologiá, Glaciologiá y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET, CCT-Mendoza, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Ana C Mazzolari
- Instituto Argentino de Nivologiá, Glaciologiá y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET, CCT-Mendoza, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Marijn Bauters
- Isotope Bioscience Laboratory - ISOFYS, Ghent University, Gent, Belgium
| | - Pascal Boeckx
- Isotope Bioscience Laboratory - ISOFYS, Ghent University, Gent, Belgium
| | | | - Shengwei Zong
- Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
| | - Valter Di Cecco
- Majella Seed Bank, Majella National Park, Lama dei Peligni, Italy
| | - Zuzana Sitková
- National Forest Centre, Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Katja Tielbörger
- Plant Ecology Group, Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Liesbeth van den Brink
- Plant Ecology Group, Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Robert Weigel
- Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - Jürgen Homeier
- Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - C Johan Dahlberg
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- County Administrative Board of Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Sergiy Medinets
- Regional Centre for Integrated Environmental Monitoring, Odesa National I.I. Mechnikov University, Odesa, Ukraine
| | - Volodymyr Medinets
- Regional Centre for Integrated Environmental Monitoring, Odesa National I.I. Mechnikov University, Odesa, Ukraine
| | - Hans J De Boeck
- Research Group PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | | | - Lore T Verryckt
- Research Group PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Ann Milbau
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium
| | | | | | | | - Benjamin Blonder
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Jörg G Stephan
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Patrice Descombes
- Landscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Unit of Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Esther R Frei
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Bernard Heinesch
- TERRA Teaching and Research Center, Faculty of Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | | | - Jan Dick
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Midlothian, UK
| | - Lukas Siebicke
- Bioclimatology, University of Goettingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Adrian Rocha
- Department of Biological Sciences and the Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Rebecca A Senior
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Christian Rixen
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
| | | | - Julia Boike
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Aníbal Pauchard
- Laboratorio de Invasiones Biológicas (LIB), Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago, Chile
| | - Thomas Scholten
- Chair of Soil Science and Geomorphology, Department of Geosciences, University of Tuebingen, Tuebingen, Germany
| | - Brett Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - David Klinges
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Edmund W Basham
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Jian Zhang
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhaochen Zhang
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
| | - Charly Géron
- Research Group PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
- Biodiversity and Landscape, TERRA Research Centre, University of Liège, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Gembloux, Belgium
| | - Fatih Fazlioglu
- Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Ordu University, Ordu, Turkey
| | - Onur Candan
- Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Ordu University, Ordu, Turkey
| | | | - Filip Hrbacek
- Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Kamil Laska
- Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Edoardo Cremonese
- Climate Change Unit, Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley, Aosta, Italy
| | - Peter Haase
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany
- Faculty of Biology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | | | - Christian Rossi
- Swiss National Park, Chastè Planta-Wildenberg, Zernez, Switzerland
- Remote Sensing Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Research Unit Community Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Ivan Nijs
- Research Group PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
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420
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Dolezal J, Kurnotova M, Stastna P, Klimesova J. Alpine plant growth and reproduction dynamics in a warmer world. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2020; 228:1295-1305. [PMID: 32632948 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2020] [Accepted: 06/26/2020] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming may stimulate growth and reproduction in cold-adapted plants, but also reduce their performance due to warming-induced drought limitation. We tested this theory using a unique experiment with the alpine forb Rumex alpinus. We examined how climate warming over the past four decades affected its annual rhizome growth, leaf production and flowering, and whether responses varied between alpine, subalpine and montane populations. Before the period of accelerated warming in the 1970s and 1980s, the primary limitation on growth had been cold temperatures and short growing seasons. Increased summer temperatures in the 1990s and 2000s enhanced rhizome growth and leaf production, but not flowering. Alpine and subalpine plants profit more than montane plants, currently producing three times longer annual rhizome increments and twice as many leaves as 40 yr ago, and achieving nearly the same values as montane plants. During the warmest 2005-2015 period, growth became contingent on summer precipitation and began to decrease across all populations, likely due to an increasing water shortage in dense monospecific stands. Warming releases plants from cold limitations but induces water shortage. Rumex alpinus exceeds its thermal optimum and becomes water-limited as the climate warms. Our results suggest that warming-induced responses in alpine plants will not be one-sided shifts to higher growth and reproduction, but rather multidimensional and spatiotemporally variable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiri Dolezal
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Science, Dukelská 135, Třeboň, CZ-379 01, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 31, České Budějovice, CZ-370 05, Czech Republic
| | - Margareta Kurnotova
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 31, České Budějovice, CZ-370 05, Czech Republic
| | - Petra Stastna
- Krkonoše Mts. National Park Administration, Dobrovského 3, Vrchlabí, CZ-543 01, Czech Republic
| | - Jitka Klimesova
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Science, Dukelská 135, Třeboň, CZ-379 01, Czech Republic
- Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Benátská 2, Prague, CZ-120 01, Czech Republic
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421
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Lobell DB, Deines JM, Tommaso SD. Changes in the drought sensitivity of US maize yields. NATURE FOOD 2020; 1:729-735. [PMID: 37128028 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-020-00165-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
As climate change leads to increased frequency and severity of drought in many agricultural regions, a prominent adaptation goal is to reduce the drought sensitivity of crop yields. Yet many of the sources of average yield gains are more effective in good weather, leading to heightened drought sensitivity. Here we consider two empirical strategies for detecting changes in drought sensitivity and apply them to maize in the United States, a crop that has experienced myriad management changes including recent adoption of drought-tolerant varieties. We show that a strategy that utilizes weather-driven temporal variations in drought exposure is inconclusive because of the infrequent occurrence of substantial drought. In contrast, a strategy that exploits within-county spatial variability in drought exposure, driven primarily by differences in soil water storage capacity, reveals robust trends over time. Yield sensitivity to soil water storage increased by 55% on average across the US Corn Belt since 1999, with larger increases in drier states. Although yields have been increasing under all conditions, the cost of drought relative to good weather has also risen. These results highlight the difficulty of simultaneously raising average yields and lowering drought sensitivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- David B Lobell
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Jillian M Deines
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Stefania Di Tommaso
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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422
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Response of Natural Vegetation to Climate in Dryland Ecosystems: A Comparative Study between Xinjiang and Arizona. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12213567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
As one of the most sensitive areas to climate change, drylands cover ~40% of the Earth’s terrestrial land surface and host more than 38% of the global population. Meanwhile, their response to climate change and variability carries large uncertainties as induced by background climate, topography, and land cover composition; but there is a lack of intercomparison of different dryland ecosystems. In this study, we compare the changing climate and corresponding responses of major natural vegetation cover types in Xinjiang and Arizona, two typical drylands with similar landscapes in Asia and North America. Long-term (2002–2019) quasi-8-day datasets of daily precipitation, daily mean temperature, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were constructed based on station observations and remote sensing products. We found that much of Xinjiang experienced warming and wetting trends (although not co-located) over the past 18 years. In contrast, Arizona was dominated by warming with insignificant wetting or drying trends. Significant greening trends were observed in most parts of both study areas, while the increasing rate of NDVI anomalies was relatively higher in Xinjiang, jointly contributed by its colder and drier conditions. Significant degradation of vegetation growth (especially for shrubland) was observed over 18.8% of Arizona due to warming. Our results suggest that responses of similar natural vegetation types under changing climate can be diversified, as controlled by temperature and moisture in areas with different aridity.
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423
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Iles RA, Sottile MJ, Amram O, Lofgren E, McConnel CS. Variable Cognition in ABM Decision-Making: An Application to Livestock Vaccine Choice. Front Vet Sci 2020; 7:564290. [PMID: 33195539 PMCID: PMC7597662 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.564290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2020] [Accepted: 09/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Modeling realistic human decision-making is an important feature of good policy design processes. The use of an agent-based modeling framework allows for quantitative human decision-models that assume fully rational agents. This research introduces a dynamic human decision-making sub-model. The parameterisation of human memory and "rationality" in a decision-making model represents an important extension of decision-making in ABMs. A data driven model of herd movement within a dynamic natural environment is the context for evaluating the cognitive decision-making model. The natural and human environments are linked via memory and rationality that affect herdsmen decision-making to vaccinate cattle using a once-for-life vaccine (Rift Valley fever) and an annual booster vaccine (Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia). The simulation model uses environmental data from Samburu county, Kenya from 2004 to 2015. The cognitive parameters of memory and "rationality" are shown to successfully differentiate between vaccination decisions that are characterized by annual and once-for-life choices. The preliminary specifications and findings from the dynamic cognition-pastoralist agent-based model (PastoralScape) indicate that the model offers much to livestock vaccination modeling among small-scale herders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard A. Iles
- School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Animal Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
| | - Matthew J. Sottile
- Department of Mathematics, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA, United States
| | - Ofer Amram
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Animal Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
- Department of Nutrition and Exercise Physiology, Washington State University, Spokane, WA, United States
| | - Eric Lofgren
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Animal Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
| | - Craig S. McConnel
- Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
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424
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Complexity of Forces Driving Trend of Reference Evapotranspiration and Signals of Climate Change. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11101081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the trends of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its influential meteorological variables due to climate change is required for studying the hydrological cycle, vegetation restoration, and regional agricultural production. Although several studies have evaluated these trends, they suffer from a number of drawbacks: (1) they used data series of less than 50 years; (2) they evaluated the individual impact of a few climatic variables on ETo, and thus could not represent the interactive effects of all forces driving trends of ETo; (3) they mostly studied trends of ETo and meteorological variables in similar climate regions; (4) they often did not eliminate the impact of serial correlations on the trends of ETo and meteorological variables; and finally (5) they did not study the extremum values of meteorological variables and ETo. This study overcame the abovementioned shortcomings by (1) analyzing the 50-year (1961–2010) annual trends of ETo and 12 meteorological variables from 18 study sites in contrasting climate types in Iran, (2) removing the effect of serial correlations on the trends analysis via the trend-free pre-whitening approach, (3) determining the most important meteorological variables that control the variations of ETo, and (4) evaluating the coincidence of annual extremum values of meteorological variables and ETo. The results showed that ETo and several meteorological variables (namely wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, cloudy days, minimum relative humidity, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature) had significant trends at the confidence level of 95% in more than 50% of the study sites. These significant trends were indicative of climate change in many regions of Iran. It was also found that the wind speed (WS) had the most significant influence on the trend of ETo in most of the study sites, especially in the years with extremum values of ETo. In 83.3% of the study sites (i.e., all arid, Mediterranean and humid regions and 66.7% of semiarid regions), both ETo and WS reached their extremum values in the same year. The significant changes in ETo due to WS and other meteorological variables have made it necessary to optimize cropping patterns in Iran.
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425
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Berner LT, Massey R, Jantz P, Forbes BC, Macias-Fauria M, Myers-Smith I, Kumpula T, Gauthier G, Andreu-Hayles L, Gaglioti BV, Burns P, Zetterberg P, D'Arrigo R, Goetz SJ. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4621. [PMID: 32963240 PMCID: PMC7509805 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18479-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2019] [Accepted: 08/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Logan T Berner
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA.
| | - Richard Massey
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Patrick Jantz
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Bruce C Forbes
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, 96101, Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Marc Macias-Fauria
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QF, UK
| | - Isla Myers-Smith
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK
| | - Timo Kumpula
- Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, 80101, Joensuu, Finland
| | - Gilles Gauthier
- Department of Biology and Centre d'études nordiques, Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, G1V0A6, Canada
| | - Laia Andreu-Hayles
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA
| | - Benjamin V Gaglioti
- Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
| | - Patrick Burns
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Pentti Zetterberg
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, 80101, Joensuu, Finland
| | - Rosanne D'Arrigo
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA
| | - Scott J Goetz
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
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426
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Hénault M, Marsit S, Charron G, Landry CR. The effect of hybridization on transposable element accumulation in an undomesticated fungal species. eLife 2020; 9:e60474. [PMID: 32955438 PMCID: PMC7584455 DOI: 10.7554/elife.60474] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Transposable elements (TEs) are mobile genetic elements that can profoundly impact the evolution of genomes and species. A long-standing hypothesis suggests that hybridization could deregulate TEs and trigger their accumulation, although it received mixed support from studies mostly in plants and animals. Here, we tested this hypothesis in fungi using incipient species of the undomesticated yeast Saccharomyces paradoxus. Population genomic data revealed no signature of higher transposition in natural hybrids. As we could not rule out the elimination of past transposition increase signatures by natural selection, we performed a laboratory evolution experiment on a panel of artificial hybrids to measure TE accumulation in the near absence of selection. Changes in TE copy numbers were not predicted by the level of evolutionary divergence between the parents of a hybrid genotype. Rather, they were highly dependent on the individual hybrid genotypes, showing that strong genotype-specific deterministic factors govern TE accumulation in yeast hybrids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Hénault
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Département de biochimie, microbiologie et bioinformatique, Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Quebec Network for Research on Protein Function, Engineering, and Applications (PROTEO), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Université Laval Big Data Research Center (BDRC_UL)QuébecCanada
| | - Souhir Marsit
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Département de biochimie, microbiologie et bioinformatique, Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Quebec Network for Research on Protein Function, Engineering, and Applications (PROTEO), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Université Laval Big Data Research Center (BDRC_UL)QuébecCanada
- Département de biologie, Université LavalQuébecCanada
| | - Guillaume Charron
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Quebec Network for Research on Protein Function, Engineering, and Applications (PROTEO), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Université Laval Big Data Research Center (BDRC_UL)QuébecCanada
- Département de biologie, Université LavalQuébecCanada
| | - Christian R Landry
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Département de biochimie, microbiologie et bioinformatique, Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Quebec Network for Research on Protein Function, Engineering, and Applications (PROTEO), Université LavalQuébecCanada
- Université Laval Big Data Research Center (BDRC_UL)QuébecCanada
- Département de biologie, Université LavalQuébecCanada
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427
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Wang S, Di Tommaso S, Deines JM, Lobell DB. Mapping twenty years of corn and soybean across the US Midwest using the Landsat archive. Sci Data 2020; 7:307. [PMID: 32934216 PMCID: PMC7493954 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00646-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Field-level monitoring of crop types in the United States via the Cropland Data Layer (CDL) has played an important role in improving production forecasts and enabling large-scale study of agricultural inputs and outcomes. Although CDL offers crop type maps across the conterminous US from 2008 onward, such maps are missing in many Midwestern states or are uneven in quality before 2008. To fill these data gaps, we used the now-public Landsat archive and cloud computing services to map corn and soybean at 30 m resolution across the US Midwest from 1999-2018. Our training data were CDL from 2008-2018, and we validated the predictions on CDL 1999-2007 where available, county-level crop acreage statistics, and state-level crop rotation statistics. The corn-soybean maps, which we call the Corn-Soy Data Layer (CSDL), are publicly hosted on Google Earth Engine and also available for download online.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherrie Wang
- Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Stefania Di Tommaso
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Jillian M Deines
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - David B Lobell
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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428
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Lark TJ, Spawn SA, Bougie M, Gibbs HK. Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4295. [PMID: 32908130 PMCID: PMC7481238 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18045-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2019] [Accepted: 07/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008-16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler J Lark
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Ave, Madison, WI, 53726, USA. .,DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
| | - Seth A Spawn
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Ave, Madison, WI, 53726, USA.,DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.,Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Matthew Bougie
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Ave, Madison, WI, 53726, USA.,DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Holly K Gibbs
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Ave, Madison, WI, 53726, USA.,DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.,Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
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429
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Hoffmann S, Beierkuhnlein C. Climate change exposure and vulnerability of the global protected area estate from an international perspective. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Hoffmann
- Department of Biogeography University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany
| | - Carl Beierkuhnlein
- Department of Biogeography University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research BayCEERUniversity of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany
- Geographical Institute University of BayreuthGIB Bayreuth Germany
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430
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Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km 2 of drylands towards desertification. Nat Commun 2020; 11:3853. [PMID: 32737311 PMCID: PMC7395722 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17710-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2020] [Accepted: 07/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Drylands cover 41% of the earth’s land surface and include 45% of the world’s agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO2 fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution. Here, we perform the first observation-based attribution study of desertification that accounts for climate change, climate variability, CO2 fertilization as well as both the gradual and rapid ecosystem changes caused by land use. We found that, between 1982 and 2015, 6% of the world’s drylands underwent desertification driven by unsustainable land use practices compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Despite an average global greening, anthropogenic climate change has degraded 12.6% (5.43 million km2) of drylands, contributing to desertification and affecting 213 million people, 93% of who live in developing economies. Drylands cover nearly half of Earth’s surface, yet how they will fare in light of anthropogenic climate change is debated. Here the authors find that over the past 40 years climate change has pushed ~13% of drylands towards desertification threatening hundreds of millions of people in developing nations.
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431
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Sannigrahi S, Pilla F, Basu B, Basu AS, Sarkar K, Chakraborti S, Joshi PK, Zhang Q, Wang Y, Bhatt S, Bhatt A, Jha S, Keesstra S, Roy PS. Examining the effects of forest fire on terrestrial carbon emission and ecosystem production in India using remote sensing approaches. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 725:138331. [PMID: 32302833 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2019] [Revised: 03/29/2020] [Accepted: 03/29/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Remote sensing techniques are effectively used for measuring the overall loss of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and biodiversity due to forest fires. The current research focuses on assessing the impacts of forest fires on terrestrial ecosystem productivity in India during 2003-2017. Spatiotemporal changes of satellite remote sensing derived burn indices were estimated for both fire and normal years to analyze the association between forest fires and ecosystem productivity. Two Light Use Efficiency (LUE) models were used to quantify the terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of the forest ecosystem using the open-source and freely available remotely sensed data. A novel approach (delta NPP/delta burn indices) is developed to quantify the effects of forest fires on terrestrial carbon emission and ecosystem production. During 2003-2017, the forest fire intensity was found to be very high (>2000) across the eastern Himalayan hilly region, which is mostly covered by dense forest and thereby highly susceptible to wildfires. Scattered patches of intense forest fires were also detected in the lower Himalayan and central Indian states. The spatial correlation between the burn indices and NPP were mainly negative (-0.01 to -0.89) for the fire-prone states as compared to the other neighbouring regions. Additionally, the linear approximation between the burn indices and NPP showed a positive relation (0.01 to 0.63), suggesting a moderate to high impact of the forest fires on the ecosystem production and terrestrial carbon emission. The present approach has the potential to quantify the loss of ecosystem productivity due to forest fires.
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Affiliation(s)
- Srikanta Sannigrahi
- School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Richview, Clonskeagh, Dublin, D14 E099, Ireland.
| | - Francesco Pilla
- School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Richview, Clonskeagh, Dublin, D14 E099, Ireland
| | - Bidroha Basu
- School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Richview, Clonskeagh, Dublin, D14 E099, Ireland
| | - Arunima Sarkar Basu
- School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Richview, Clonskeagh, Dublin, D14 E099, Ireland
| | - Konika Sarkar
- Rabindra Bharati University, Kolkata, West Bengal 700007, India
| | - Suman Chakraborti
- Center for the Study of Regional Development (CSRD), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India
| | - Pawan Kumar Joshi
- School of Environmental Sciences (SES), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India
| | - Qi Zhang
- The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Ying Wang
- School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
| | - Sandeep Bhatt
- Department of Geology & Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, 721302, India
| | - Anand Bhatt
- H.N.B.Garhwal University, Srinagar - 246174, Dist. Garhwal, Uttarakhand 246174, India
| | - Shouvik Jha
- Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research (ICCSIR), Kachchh, Gujarat 370465, India
| | - Saskia Keesstra
- Soil, Water and Land-use Team, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg3, 6708PB Wageningen, Netherlands; Civil, Surveying and Environmental Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, Australia
| | - P S Roy
- Innovation Systems for the Drylands (ISD), ICRISAT, Pathancheru, Hyderabad 502 324, India
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432
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Beerling DJ, Kantzas EP, Lomas MR, Wade P, Eufrasio RM, Renforth P, Sarkar B, Andrews MG, James RH, Pearce CR, Mercure JF, Pollitt H, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Khanna M, Koh L, Quegan S, Pidgeon NF, Janssens IA, Hansen J, Banwart SA. Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands. Nature 2020; 583:242-248. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 134] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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433
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Aguirre-Gutiérrez J, Malhi Y, Lewis SL, Fauset S, Adu-Bredu S, Affum-Baffoe K, Baker TR, Gvozdevaite A, Hubau W, Moore S, Peprah T, Ziemińska K, Phillips OL, Oliveras I. Long-term droughts may drive drier tropical forests towards increased functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogeneity. Nat Commun 2020; 11:3346. [PMID: 32620761 PMCID: PMC7335099 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16973-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Tropical ecosystems adapted to high water availability may be highly impacted by climatic changes that increase soil and atmospheric moisture deficits. Many tropical regions are experiencing significant changes in climatic conditions, which may induce strong shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of forest communities. However, it remains unclear if and to what extent tropical forests are shifting in these facets of diversity along climatic gradients in response to climate change. Here, we show that changes in climate affected all three facets of diversity in West Africa in recent decades. Taxonomic and functional diversity increased in wetter forests but tended to decrease in forests with drier climate. Phylogenetic diversity showed a large decrease along a wet-dry climatic gradient. Notably, we find that all three facets of diversity tended to be higher in wetter forests. Drier forests showed functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogenization. Understanding how different facets of diversity respond to a changing environment across climatic gradients is essential for effective long-term conservation of tropical forest ecosystems. Different aspects of biodiversity may not necessarily converge in their response to climate change. Here, the authors investigate 25-year shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of tropical forests along a spatial climate gradient in West Africa, showing that drier forests are less stable than wetter forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. .,Biodiversity Dynamics, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
| | - Yadvinder Malhi
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon L Lewis
- Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK.,Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sophie Fauset
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
| | - Stephen Adu-Bredu
- CSIR-Forestry Research Institute of Ghana, University Post Office, KNUST, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Timothy R Baker
- Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - Agne Gvozdevaite
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Wannes Hubau
- Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK.,Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren, Belgium
| | - Sam Moore
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Theresa Peprah
- CSIR-Forestry Research Institute of Ghana, University Post Office, KNUST, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Kasia Ziemińska
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.,Department of Plant Ecology and Evolution, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Oliver L Phillips
- Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - Imma Oliveras
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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434
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A Modified ABCD Model with Temperature-Dependent Parameters for Cold Regions: Application to Reconstruct the Changing Runoff in the Headwater Catchment of the Golmud River, China. WATER 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/w12061812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The runoff changes due to global warming in hydrological basins in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have received worldwide attention. The headwater catchment of the Golmud River, located in the northern QTP, is the main source of water resources for the Golmud city in an arid region but has been poorly known for the hydroclimatological behaviors. In this study, a widely-used hydrological model, the ABCD model (Thomas, H.A., Washington, DC, USA), is modified by incorporating temperature-dependent hydrological processes and groundwater evapotranspiration in cold regions with a few additional parameters. The new model is used to reconstruct the monthly runoff in the past decades for the headwater catchment of the Golmud River and performs better than other comparable models. As indicated, the annual snowmelt runoff increased with the increasing air temperature and became more concentrated in April than in May. The frozen soil degradation could increase the hydraulic conductivity of soils and lead to a rise in cold season runoff. The groundwater level in the Golmud city was positively correlated to the annual runoff in the headwater catchment of the Golmud River, indicating that an increase of the groundwater level could be triggered by the rising trend in the streamflow of the Golmud River. This study suggests a useful hydrological model for the groundwater management in the Golmud city.
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435
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Ramirez‐Parada T, Cabrera D, Diaz‐Martin Z, Browne L, Karubian J. Resource‐related variables drive individual variation in flowering phenology and mediate population‐level flowering responses to climate in an asynchronously reproducing palm. Biotropica 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.12792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Tadeo Ramirez‐Parada
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Tulane University New Orleans LA USA
| | - Domingo Cabrera
- Foundation for the Conservation of the Tropical Andes Quito Ecuador
| | - Zoe Diaz‐Martin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Tulane University New Orleans LA USA
- Foundation for the Conservation of the Tropical Andes Quito Ecuador
| | - Luke Browne
- Foundation for the Conservation of the Tropical Andes Quito Ecuador
- UCLA La Kretz Center for California Conservation Science, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
| | - Jordan Karubian
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Tulane University New Orleans LA USA
- Foundation for the Conservation of the Tropical Andes Quito Ecuador
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436
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Kath J, Byrareddy VM, Craparo A, Nguyen-Huy T, Mushtaq S, Cao L, Bossolasco L. Not so robust: Robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3677-3688. [PMID: 32223007 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2019] [Revised: 01/30/2020] [Accepted: 03/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Coffea canephora (robusta coffee) is the most heat-tolerant and 'robust' coffee species and therefore considered more resistant to climate change than other types of coffee production. However, the optimum production range of robusta has never been quantified, with current estimates of its optimal mean annual temperature range (22-30°C) based solely on the climatic conditions of its native range in the Congo basin, Central Africa. Using 10 years of yield observations from 798 farms across South East Asia coupled with high-resolution precipitation and temperature data, we used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify robusta's optimal temperature range for production. Our climate-based models explained yield variation well across the study area with a cross-validated mean R2 = .51. We demonstrate that robusta has an optimal temperature below 20.5°C (or a mean minimum/maximum of ≤16.2/24.1°C), which is markedly lower, by 1.5-9°C than current estimates. In the middle of robusta's currently assumed optimal range (mean annual temperatures over 25.1°C), coffee yields are 50% lower compared to the optimal mean of ≤20.5°C found here. During the growing season, every 1°C increase in mean minimum/maximum temperatures above 16.2/24.1°C corresponded to yield declines of ~14% or 350-460 kg/ha (95% credible interval). Our results suggest that robusta coffee is far more sensitive to temperature than previously thought. Current assessments, based on robusta having an optimal temperature range over 22°C, are likely overestimating its suitable production range and its ability to contribute to coffee production as temperatures increase under climate change. Robusta supplies 40% of the world's coffee, but its production potential could decline considerably as temperatures increase under climate change, jeopardizing a multi-billion dollar coffee industry and the livelihoods of millions of farmers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jarrod Kath
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
| | - Vivekananda M Byrareddy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
| | - Alessandro Craparo
- International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Hanoi, Vietnam
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia
| | - Thong Nguyen-Huy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
- Vietnam National Space Center, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Shahbaz Mushtaq
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
| | - Loc Cao
- Sustainable Management Services, ECOM Agroindustrial, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Laurent Bossolasco
- Sustainable Management Services, ECOM Agroindustrial, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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437
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Creating New Near-Surface Air Temperature Datasets to Understand Elevation-Dependent Warming in the Tibetan Plateau. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12111722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The Tibetan Plateau has been undergoing accelerated warming over recent decades, and is considered an indicator for broader global warming phenomena. However, our understanding of warming rates with elevation in complex mountain regions is incomplete. The most serious concern is the lack of high-quality near-surface air temperature (Tair) datasets in these areas. To address this knowledge gap, we developed an automated mapping framework for the estimation of seamless daily minimum and maximum Land Surface Temperatures (LSTs) for the Tibetan Plateau from the existing MODIS LST products for a long period of time (i.e., 2002–present). Specific machine learning methods were developed and linked with target-oriented validation and then applied to convert LST to Tair. Spatial variables in retrieving Tair, such as solar radiation and vegetation indices, were used in estimation of Tair, whereas MODIS LST products were mainly focused on temporal variation in surface air temperature. We validated our process using independent Tair products, revealing more reliable estimates on Tair; the R2 and RMSE at monthly scales generally fell in the range of 0.9–0.95 and 1–2 °C. Using these continuous and consistent Tair datasets, we found temperature increases in the elevation range between 2000–3000 m and 4000–5000 m, whereas the elevation interval at 6000–7000 m exhibits a cooling trend. The developed datasets, findings and methodology contribute to global studies on accelerated warming.
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438
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Zellweger F, De Frenne P, Lenoir J, Vangansbeke P, Verheyen K, Bernhardt-Römermann M, Baeten L, Hédl R, Berki I, Brunet J, Van Calster H, Chudomelová M, Decocq G, Dirnböck T, Durak T, Heinken T, Jaroszewicz B, Kopecký M, Máliš F, Macek M, Malicki M, Naaf T, Nagel TA, Ortmann-Ajkai A, Petřík P, Pielech R, Reczyńska K, Schmidt W, Standovár T, Świerkosz K, Teleki B, Vild O, Wulf M, Coomes D. Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming. Science 2020; 368:772-775. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6880] [Citation(s) in RCA: 208] [Impact Index Per Article: 52.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2020] [Accepted: 03/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Climate warming is causing a shift in biological communities in favor of warm-affinity species (i.e., thermophilization). Species responses often lag behind climate warming, but the reasons for such lags remain largely unknown. Here, we analyzed multidecadal understory microclimate dynamics in European forests and show that thermophilization and the climatic lag in forest plant communities are primarily controlled by microclimate. Increasing tree canopy cover reduces warming rates inside forests, but loss of canopy cover leads to increased local heat that exacerbates the disequilibrium between community responses and climate change. Reciprocal effects between plants and microclimates are key to understanding the response of forest biodiversity and functioning to climate and land-use changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Zellweger
- Forest Ecology and Conservation Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB23EA, UK
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, B-9090 Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UR “Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés” (EDYSAN, UMR 7058 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 800037 Amiens Cedex 1, France
| | - Pieter Vangansbeke
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, B-9090 Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Kris Verheyen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, B-9090 Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | | | - Lander Baeten
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, B-9090 Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Radim Hédl
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-602 00 Brno, Czech Republic
- Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, Palacký University in Olomouc, CZ-78371 Olomouc, Czech Republic
| | - Imre Berki
- Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, University of Sopron, H-9400 Sopron, Hungary
| | - Jörg Brunet
- Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 230 53 Alnarp, Sweden
| | - Hans Van Calster
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), B-1000 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Markéta Chudomelová
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-602 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Guillaume Decocq
- UR “Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés” (EDYSAN, UMR 7058 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 800037 Amiens Cedex 1, France
| | | | - Tomasz Durak
- Department of Plant Physiology and Ecology, University of Rzeszów, PL-35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
| | - Thilo Heinken
- General Botany, Insitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Bogdan Jaroszewicz
- Białowieża Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, 17-230 Białowieża, Poland
| | - Martin Kopecký
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-252 43 Průhonice, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, CZ-165 21 Prague 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - František Máliš
- Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, SK-960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia
- National Forest Centre, SK-960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Martin Macek
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-252 43 Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Marek Malicki
- Department of Botany, Institute of Environmental Biology, University of Wrocław, PL-50-328 50 Wrocław, Poland
| | - Tobias Naaf
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), D-15374 Muencheberg, Germany
| | - Thomas A. Nagel
- Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia
| | - Adrienne Ortmann-Ajkai
- Department of Hydrobiology, Institute of Biology, University of Pécs, H-7624 Pécs, Hungary
| | - Petr Petřík
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-252 43 Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Remigiusz Pielech
- Department of Forest Biodiversity, Faculty of Forestry, University of Agriculture in Kraków, PL-32-425 Kraków, Poland
| | - Kamila Reczyńska
- Department of Botany, Institute of Environmental Biology, University of Wrocław, PL-50-328 50 Wrocław, Poland
| | - Wolfgang Schmidt
- Department of Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Tibor Standovár
- Department of Plant Systematics, Ecology and Theoretical Biology, Institute of Biology, L. Eötvös University, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Balázs Teleki
- MTA-DE Lendület Functional and Restoration Ecology Research Group, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Ondřej Vild
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-602 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Monika Wulf
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), D-15374 Muencheberg, Germany
| | - David Coomes
- Forest Ecology and Conservation Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB23EA, UK
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439
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Scholl JP, Calle L, Miller N, Venable DL. Offspring polymorphism and bet hedging: a large-scale, phylogenetic analysis. Ecol Lett 2020; 23:1223-1231. [PMID: 32406146 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2019] [Revised: 11/17/2019] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Offspring polymorphism is a reproductive strategy where individual organisms simultaneously produce offspring that differ in morphology and ecology. It occurs across the Tree of Life but is particularly common among plants, where it is termed seed (diaspore) heteromorphism. The prevalence of this strategy in unpredictably varying environments has resulted in the assumption that it serves as a bet-hedging mechanism. We found 101 examples of this strategy in southwestern North America. We provide phylogenetically informed evidence for the hypothesis that the occurrence of seed heteromorphism increases with increasing environmental variability, though this pattern was only significant for aridity, one of our two rainfall variability metrics. We provide a strong test of bet hedging for a large, taxonomically diverse set of seed heteromorphic species, lending support to the hypothesis that bet hedging is an important mechanistic driver for the evolution of seed heteromorphism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua P Scholl
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Leonardo Calle
- Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59802, USA
| | - Nick Miller
- The Nature Conservancy, Tucson, AZ, 85719, USA
| | - D Lawrence Venable
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
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440
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Global Trends in Evapotranspiration Dominated by Increases across Large Cropland Regions. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12071221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Irrigated croplands require large annual water inputs and are critical to global food production. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is a main index of water use in croplands, and several remote-sensing products have been developed to quantify AET at the global scale. In this study, we estimate global trends in actual AET, potential ET (PET), and precipitation rate (PP) utilizing the MODIS Evapotranspiration product (2001–2018) within the Google Earth Engine cloud-computing environment. We then introduce a new index based on a combination of AET, PET, and PP estimates—the evapotranspiration warning index (ETWI)—which we use to evaluate the sustainability of observed AET trends. We show that while AET has not considerably changed across global natural lands, it has significantly increased across global croplands (+14% ± 5%). The average ETWI for global croplands is −0.40 ± 0.25, which is largely driven by an extreme trend in AET, exceeding both PET and PP trends. Furthermore, the trends in water and energy limited areas demonstrate, on a global scale, while AET and PET do not have significant trends in both water and energy limited areas, the increasing trend of PP in energy-limited areas is more than water-limited areas. Averaging cropland ETWI trends at the country level further revealed nonsustainable trends in cropland water consumptions in Thailand, Brazil, and China. These regions were also found to experiencing some of the largest increases in net primary production (NPP) and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), suggesting that recent increases in food production may be dependent on unsustainable water inputs. Globally, irrigated maize was found to be associated with nonsustainable AET trends relative to other crop types. We present an online open access application designed to enable near real-time monitoring and improve the understanding of global water consumption and availability.
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441
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Zhang DD, Zhang L. Land Cover Change in the Central Region of the Lower Yangtze River Based on Landsat Imagery and the Google Earth Engine: A Case Study in Nanjing, China. SENSORS 2020; 20:s20072091. [PMID: 32276373 PMCID: PMC7180629 DOI: 10.3390/s20072091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2020] [Revised: 04/03/2020] [Accepted: 04/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Urbanization in China is progressing rapidly and continuously, especially in the newly developed metropolitan areas. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a powerful tool that can be used to efficiently investigate these changes using a large repository of available optical imagery. This work examined land-cover changes in the central region of the lower Yangtze River and exemplifies the application of GEE using the random forest classification algorithm on Landsat dense stacks spanning the 30 years from 1987 to 2017. Based on the obtained time-series land-cover classification results, the spatiotemporal land-use/cover changes were analyzed, as well as the main factors driving the changes in different land-cover categories. The results show that: (1) The obtained land datasets were reliable and highly accurate, with an overall accuracy ranging from 88% to 92%. (2) Over the past 30 years, built-up areas have continued to expand, increasing from 537.9 km2 to 1500.5 km2, and the total area occupied by built-up regions has expanded by 178.9% to occupy an additional 962.7 km2. The surface water area first decreased, then increased, and generally showed an increasing trend, expanding by 17.9%, with an area increase of approximately 131 km2. Barren areas accounted for 6.6% of the total area in the period 2015–2017, which was an increase of 94.8% relative to the period 1987–1989. The expansion of the built-up area was accompanied by an overall 25.6% (1305.7 km2) reduction in vegetation. (3) The complexity of the key factors driving the changes in the regional surface water extent was made apparent, mainly including the changes in runoff of the Yangtze River and the construction of various water conservancy projects. The effects of increasing the urban population and expanding industrial development were the main factors driving the expansion of urban built-up areas and the significant reduction in vegetation. The advantages and limitations arising from land-cover mapping by using the Google Earth Engine are also discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong-Dong Zhang
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Multidimensional Information Processing, East China Normal University, Shanghai 201100, China;
| | - Lei Zhang
- MOE International Joint Lab of Trustworthy Software, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +86-188-1822-3050
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442
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Donnelly JP, King SL, Silverman NL, Collins DP, Carrera‐Gonzalez EM, Lafón‐Terrazas A, Moore JN. Climate and human water use diminish wetland networks supporting continental waterbird migration. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2042-2059. [PMID: 31967369 PMCID: PMC7155039 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2019] [Accepted: 12/26/2019] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Migrating waterbirds moving between upper and lower latitudinal breeding and wintering grounds rely on a limited network of endorheic lakes and wetlands when crossing arid continental interiors. Recent drying of global endorheic water stores raises concerns over deteriorating migratory pathways, yet few studies have considered these effects at the scale of continental flyways. Here, we investigate the resiliency of waterbird migration networks across western North America by reconstructing long-term patterns (1984-2018) of terminal lake and wetland surface water area in 26 endorheic watersheds. Findings were partitioned regionally by snowmelt- and monsoon-driven hydrologies and combined with climate and human water-use data to determine their importance in predicting surface water trends. Nonlinear patterns of lake and wetland drying were apparent along latitudinal flyway gradients. Pervasive surface water declines were prevalent in northern snowmelt watersheds (lakes -27%, wetlands -47%) while largely stable in monsoonal watersheds to the south (lakes -13%, wetlands +8%). Monsoonal watersheds represented a smaller proportion of total lake and wetland area, but their distribution and frequency of change within highly arid regions of the continental flyway increased their value to migratory waterbirds. Irrigated agriculture and increasing evaporative demands were the most important drivers of surface water declines. Underlying agricultural and wetland relationships however were more complex. Approximately 7% of irrigated lands linked to flood irrigation and water storage practices supported 61% of all wetland inundation in snowmelt watersheds. In monsoonal watersheds, small earthen dams, meant to capture surface runoff for livestock watering, were a major component of wetland resources (67%) that supported networks of isolated wetlands surrounding endorheic lakes. Ecological trends and human impacts identified herein underscore the importance of assessing flyway-scale change as our model depictions likely reflect new and emerging bottlenecks to continental migration.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Patrick Donnelly
- Intermountain West Joint Venture – U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceMissoulaMTUSA
| | - Sammy L. King
- U.S. Geological SurveyLouisiana Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit124 School of Renewable Natural ResourcesLouisiana State UniversityBaton RougeLAUSA
| | | | - Daniel P. Collins
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceRegion 2 Migratory Bird OfficeAlbuquerqueNMUSA
| | | | | | - Johnnie N. Moore
- Group For Quantitative Study of Snow and IceDepartment of GeosciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMTUSA
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443
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Funk C, Raghavan Sathyan A, Winker P, Breuer L. Changing climate - Changing livelihood: Smallholder's perceptions and adaption strategies. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2020; 259:109702. [PMID: 32072948 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2018] [Revised: 09/13/2019] [Accepted: 10/09/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Experts expect that climate change will soon have a severe impact on the lives of farmers in the region surrounding Kerala, India. This region, which is known for its monsoon climate (which involves a distinct temporal and spatial variation in rainfall), has experienced a decrease in annual rainfall over the last century. This study is aimed at investigating how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and at identifying the methods that these smallholders use to adapt to climate change. We use data collected from a survey of 215 households to compare the climate vulnerability of three watershed communities in Kerala. We find that the farmers perceive substantial increases in both temperature and the unpredictability of monsoons; this is in accordance with actual observed weather trends. The selection of effective adaptation strategies is one of the key challenges that smallholders face as they seek to reduce their vulnerability. The surveyed households simultaneously use various adaptation methods, including information and communication technology, crop and farm diversification, social networking through cooperatives, and soil and water conservation measures. The results of a binary regression model reveal that the household head's age, education and gender, as well as the farm's size and the household's size, assets, livestock ownership, poverty status and use of extension services, are all significantly correlated with the households' choices regarding adaptations to cope with climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Funk
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Licher Strasse 64, 35394, Giessen, Germany; Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University, 4 Eastern Road, North Ryde, NSW, 2109, Australia.
| | - Archana Raghavan Sathyan
- Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for Bio Systems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany; Department of Agricultural Extension, College of Agriculture, Vellayani, Kerala Agricultural University, Thiruvananthapuram, 695522, Kerala, India
| | - Peter Winker
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Licher Strasse 64, 35394, Giessen, Germany; Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 3, 35390, Giessen, Germany
| | - Lutz Breuer
- Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for Bio Systems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, 35392, Giessen, Germany; Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 3, 35390, Giessen, Germany
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444
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Trait velocities reveal that mortality has driven widespread coordinated shifts in forest hydraulic trait composition. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:8532-8538. [PMID: 32229563 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1917521117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the driving mechanisms behind existing patterns of vegetation hydraulic traits and community trait diversity is critical for advancing predictions of the terrestrial carbon cycle because hydraulic traits affect both ecosystem and Earth system responses to changing water availability. Here, we leverage an extensive trait database and a long-term continental forest plot network to map changes in community trait distributions and quantify "trait velocities" (the rate of change in community-weighted traits) for different regions and different forest types across the United States from 2000 to the present. We show that diversity in hydraulic traits and photosynthetic characteristics is more related to local water availability than overall species diversity. Finally, we find evidence for coordinated shifts toward communities with more drought-tolerant traits driven by tree mortality, but the magnitude of responses differs depending on forest type. The hydraulic trait distribution maps provide a publicly available platform to fundamentally advance understanding of community trait change in response to climate change and predictive abilities of mechanistic vegetation models.
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445
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Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands. Sci Rep 2020; 10:3891. [PMID: 32127547 PMCID: PMC7054431 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60270-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2019] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Changes in individual climate variables have been widely documented over the past century. However, assessments that consider changes in the collective interaction amongst multiple climate variables are relevant for understanding climate impacts on ecological and human systems yet are less well documented than univariate changes. We calculate annual multivariate climate departures during 1958-2017 relative to a baseline 1958-1987 period that account for covariance among four variables important to Earth's biota and associated systems: annual climatic water deficit, annual evapotranspiration, average minimum temperature of the coldest month, and average maximum temperature of the warmest month. Results show positive trends in multivariate climate departures that were nearly three times that of univariate climate departures across global lands. Annual multivariate climate departures exceeded two standard deviations over the past decade for approximately 30% of global lands. Positive trends in climate departures over the last six decades were found to be primarily the result of changes in mean climate conditions consistent with the modeled effects of anthropogenic climate change rather than changes in variability. These results highlight the increasing novelty of annual climatic conditions viewed through a multivariate lens and suggest that changes in multivariate climate departures have generally outpaced univariate departures in recent decades.
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446
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Responses of Seasonal Indicators to Extreme Droughts in Southwest China. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12050818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Significant impact of extreme droughts on human society and ecosystem has occurred in many places of the world, for example, Southwest China (SWC). Considerable research concentrated on analyzing causes and effects of droughts in SWC, but few studies have examined seasonal indicators, such as variations of surface water and vegetation phenology. With the ongoing satellite missions, more and more earth observation data become available to environmental studies. Exploring the responses of seasonal indicators from satellite data to drought is helpful for the future drought forecast and management. This study analyzed the seasonal responses of surface water and vegetation phenology to drought in SWC using the multi-source data including Seasonal Water Area (SWA), Permanent Water Area (PWA), Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), Length of Season (LOS), precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and data from water conservancy construction. The results showed that SWA and LOS effectively revealed the development and recovery of droughts. There were two obvious drought periods from 2000 to 2017. In the first period (from August 2003 to June 2007), SWA decreased by 11.81% and LOS shortened by 5 days. They reduced by 21.04% and 9 days respectively in the second period (from September 2009 to June 2014), which indicated that there are more severe droughts in the second period. The SOS during two drought periods delayed by 3~6 days in spring, while the EOS advanced 1~3 days in autumn. All of PDSI, SWA and LOS could reflect the period of droughts in SWC, but the LOS and PDSI were very sensitive to the meteorological events, such as precipitation and temperature, while the SWA performed a more stable reaction to drought and could be a good indicator for the drought periodicity. This made it possible for using SWA in drought forecast because of the strong correlation between SWA and drought. Our results improved the understanding of seasonal responses to extreme droughts in SWC, which will be helpful to the drought monitoring and mitigation for different seasons in this ecologically fragile region.
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447
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He P, Gleason SM, Wright IJ, Weng E, Liu H, Zhu S, Lu M, Luo Q, Li R, Wu G, Yan E, Song Y, Mi X, Hao G, Reich PB, Wang Y, Ellsworth DS, Ye Q. Growing-season temperature and precipitation are independent drivers of global variation in xylem hydraulic conductivity. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:1833-1841. [PMID: 31749261 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2019] [Accepted: 11/10/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Stem xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (KS ) represents the potential for plant water transport normalized by xylem cross section, length, and driving force. Variation in KS has implications for plant transpiration and photosynthesis, growth and survival, and also the geographic distribution of species. Clarifying the global-scale patterns of KS and its major drivers is needed to achieve a better understanding of how plants adapt to different environmental conditions, particularly under climate change scenarios. Here, we compiled a xylem hydraulics dataset with 1,186 species-at-site combinations (975 woody species representing 146 families, from 199 sites worldwide), and investigated how KS varied with climatic variables, plant functional types, and biomes. Growing-season temperature and growing-season precipitation drove global variation in KS independently. Both the mean and the variation in KS were highest in the warm and wet tropical regions, and lower in cold and dry regions, such as tundra and desert biomes. Our results suggest that future warming and redistribution of seasonal precipitation may have a significant impact on species functional diversity, and is likely to be particularly important in regions becoming warmer or drier, such as high latitudes. This highlights an important role for KS in predicting shifts in community composition in the face of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pengcheng He
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Plant Ecology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Sean M Gleason
- USDA-ARS Water Management and Systems Research Unit, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Ian J Wright
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ensheng Weng
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Hui Liu
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Plant Ecology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shidan Zhu
- Guangxi Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Conservation, College of Forestry, Guangxi University, Nanning, China
| | - Mingzhen Lu
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Qi Luo
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ronghua Li
- Institute of Tropical and Subtropical Ecology, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Guilin Wu
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Plant Ecology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Enrong Yan
- School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yanjun Song
- School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiangcheng Mi
- State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Guangyou Hao
- Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, China
| | - Peter B Reich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
| | - Yingping Wang
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic., Australia
| | - David S Ellsworth
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
| | - Qing Ye
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Plant Ecology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
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448
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Wagner FH, Sanchez A, Aidar MPM, Rochelle ALC, Tarabalka Y, Fonseca MG, Phillips OL, Gloor E, Aragão LEOC. Mapping Atlantic rainforest degradation and regeneration history with indicator species using convolutional network. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0229448. [PMID: 32109946 PMCID: PMC7048271 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2019] [Accepted: 02/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The Atlantic rainforest of Brazil is one of the global terrestrial hotspots of biodiversity. Despite having undergone large scale deforestation, forest cover has shown signs of increases in the last decades. Here, to understand the degradation and regeneration history of Atlantic rainforest remnants near São Paulo, we combine a unique dataset of very high resolution images from Worldview-2 and Worldview-3 (0.5 and 0.3m spatial resolution, respectively), georeferenced aerial photographs from 1962 and use a deep learning method called U-net to map (i) the forest cover and changes and (ii) two pioneer tree species, Cecropia hololeuca and Tibouchina pulchra. For Tibouchina pulchra, all the individuals were mapped in February, when the trees undergo mass-flowering with purple and pink blossoms. Additionally, elevation data at 30m spatial resolution from NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and annual mean climate variables (Terraclimate datasets at ∼ 4km of spatial resolution) were used to analyse the forest and species distributions. We found that natural forests are currently more frequently found on south-facing slopes, likely because of geomorphology and past land use, and that Tibouchina is restricted to the wetter part of the region (southern part), which annually receives at least 1600 mm of precipitation. Tibouchina pulchra was found to clearly indicate forest regeneration as almost all individuals were found within or adjacent to forests regrown after 1962. By contrast, Cecropia hololeuca was found to indicate older disturbed forests, with all individuals almost exclusively found in forest fragments already present in 1962. At the regional scale, using the dominance maps of both species, we show that at least 4.3% of the current region’s natural forests have regrown after 1962 (Tibouchina dominated, ∼ 4757 ha) and that ∼ 9% of the old natural forests have experienced significant disturbance (Cecropia dominated).
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabien H. Wagner
- Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
- Geoprocessing Division, Foundation for Science, Technology and Space Applications - FUNCATE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | - Alber Sanchez
- Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Marcos P. M. Aidar
- Department of Plant Physiology and Biochemistry, Institute of Botany, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - André L. C. Rochelle
- Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Yuliya Tarabalka
- Inria Sophia Antipolis, Sophia Antipolis, France
- Luxcarta Technology, Parc d’Activité l’Argile, Mouans Sartoux, France
| | - Marisa G. Fonseca
- Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Oliver L. Phillips
- Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom
| | - Emanuel Gloor
- Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom
| | - Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
- Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, England, United Kingdom
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449
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da Silva AB, de Oliveira EF, Encina CCC, de Figueiredo HR, Paranhos AC, de Oliveira AG. Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on human visceral leishmaniasis in the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso do Sul. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 2020; 115:e190298. [PMID: 32130366 PMCID: PMC7046144 DOI: 10.1590/0074-02760190298] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2019] [Accepted: 01/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Leishmaniases are considered a major public health problem in South America, specifically in Brazil. Moreover, the transmission and epidemiology of leishmaniasis are possibly associated with climatic and environmental variations. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess the association between the extreme climatic phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the maximum and minimum variations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture and the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, from 2002 to 2015. METHODS The Niño 3.4 index was used for the ENSO variation. The other climatic data were obtained from the climatic tool TerraClimate. Records regarding VL were obtained from the Notification of Injury Information System. FINDINGS From 2002 to 2015, there were 3,137 cases of VL recorded in MS. The annual incidence of the disease was negatively associated with the ENSO index and soil moisture in MS. The VL incidence increased during the negative phase of ENSO and decreased during the positive phase. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The results demonstrated that the interannual cycles of incidence of human VL are significantly associated with the occurrence of the ENSO phenomenon and its phases, El Niño and La Niña.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Brandão da Silva
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Programa de
Pós-Graduação em Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Campo
Grande, MS, Brasil
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Instituto de
Biociências, Laboratório de Parasitologia Humana, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil
| | - Everton Falcão de Oliveira
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Programa de
Pós-Graduação em Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Campo
Grande, MS, Brasil
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Instituto de
Biociências, Laboratório de Parasitologia Humana, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil
| | - César Claudio Cáceres Encina
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Laboratório de
Geoprocessamento para Aplicações Ambientais, Faculdade de Engenharias, Arquitetura e
Urbanismo e Geografia, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil
| | - Helen Rezende de Figueiredo
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Laboratório de
Geoprocessamento para Aplicações Ambientais, Faculdade de Engenharias, Arquitetura e
Urbanismo e Geografia, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil
| | - Antonio Conceição Paranhos
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Laboratório de
Geoprocessamento para Aplicações Ambientais, Faculdade de Engenharias, Arquitetura e
Urbanismo e Geografia, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil
| | - Alessandra Gutierrez de Oliveira
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Programa de
Pós-Graduação em Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Campo
Grande, MS, Brasil
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Instituto de
Biociências, Laboratório de Parasitologia Humana, Campo Grande, MS, Brasil
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Abstract
In this study, we corrected the bias in the Princeton forcing dataset, i.e., precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed, by adjusting its long-term mean monthly climatology to match observations for the period 1988–2012 using the delta-ratio method. To this end, we collected meteorological data from 97 stations covering the domain of Iran. We divided Iran into three climatic zones based on the De Martonne classification, i.e., Arid, Humid, and Per-Humid zones, and then applied the delta-ratio method for each climatic zone separately to adjust the bias. After adjustment, the new datasets were compared to the observations in 1958–1987. Results based on four skill scores, including the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and R2, indicate that the adjustment greatly improved the quality of the gridded dataset, specifically, precipitation, maximum temperature, and wind speed. For example, NSE for annual precipitation during the validation time period increased from −0.03 to 0.72, PBIAS reduced from 29.2% to 6.6%, RMSE decreased by 182.44 mm, and R2 increased from 0.06 to 0.75. Assessing the results in different climatic zones of Iran reveals that precipitation improved more significantly in the Per-Humid zone followed by the Humid zone, while maximum temperature improved better in the Arid areas. For wind speed, the values improved comparably in the three climate zones. However, the delta values for monthly minimum temperature calculated during the adjustment time period cannot be applied in the validation time period, due to the fact that the Princeton climate data cannot follow the behavior of minimum temperature during the validation phase. In short, we showed that a simple bias adjustment approach, along with minimum observed station data, can significantly improve the performance of global gridded datasets.
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