Causal analyses of existing databases: no power calculations required

Migraine and Risk of Parkinson Disease in Women: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Migraine and Parkinson disease (PD) are common neurologic disorders, which are hypothesized to share some pathophysiologic mechanisms. However, data on the association between migraine and risk of developing PD are sparse. We estimate the effect of migraine, migraine subtypes, and migraine episode frequency on the risk of developing PD in middle-aged and older women.

METHODS

We used data from the Women's Health Study, a United States-based cohort of women in health professions aged 45 years and older at baseline (1992-1995). Only women with complete self-reported information on migraine and headache and no history of PD were included. Participants were followed up for self-reported physician-diagnosed PD through December 31, 2021. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% CIs of the association between migraine, migraine subtypes, and migraine episode frequency and the risk of developing PD.

RESULTS

A total of 39,312 women were included in the analyses. Among those, 7,321 women (18.6%) reported any migraine at baseline, of whom 2,153 (5.5%) reported a history of migraine, 2,057 (5.2%) reported migraine with aura, and 3,111 (7.9%) reported migraine without aura. During a mean follow-up of 22.0 years, 685 PD cases were reported. Of those, 128 (18.7%) were reported by women who also reported any migraine and 557 (81.3%) by women without any migraine. After adjusting for confounding, the HR for the association of any migraine on the risk of PD was 1.07 (0.88-1.29). Compared with women without migraine, the HRs (95% CI) for PD were 0.87 (0.59-1.27) for migraine with aura, 1.21 (0.93-1.58) for migraine without aura, and 1.05 (0.76-1.45) for history of migraine. Compared with those with a migraine frequency of less than monthly, the HRs were 1.09 (0.64-1.87) for a monthly frequency and 1.10 (0.44-2.75) for a weekly or greater frequency.

DISCUSSION

In this large cohort of women, the risk of developing PD was not elevated among those experiencing migraine, irrespective of migraine subtypes or the frequency of migraine. The generalizability of our findings to other populations, such as men, should be further investigated.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000479.

Heterogeneity, Bayesian thinking, and phenotyping in critical care: A primer

PURPOSE

To familiarize clinicians with the emerging concepts in critical care research of Bayesian thinking and personalized medicine through phenotyping and explain their clinical relevance by highlighting how they address the issues of frequent negative trials and heterogeneity of treatment effect.

SUMMARY

The past decades have seen many negative (effect-neutral) critical care trials of promising interventions, culminating in calls to improve the field's research through adopting Bayesian thinking and increasing personalization of critical care medicine through phenotyping. Bayesian analyses add interpretive power for clinicians as they summarize treatment effects based on probabilities of benefit or harm, contrasting with conventional frequentist statistics that either affirm or reject a null hypothesis. Critical care trials are beginning to include prospective Bayesian analyses, and many trials have undergone reanalysis with Bayesian methods. Phenotyping seeks to identify treatable traits to target interventions to patients expected to derive benefit. Phenotyping and subphenotyping have gained prominence in the most syndromic and heterogenous critical care disease states, acute respiratory distress syndrome and sepsis. Grouping of patients has been informative across a spectrum of clinically observable physiological parameters, biomarkers, and genomic data. Bayesian thinking and phenotyping are emerging as elements of adaptive clinical trials and predictive enrichment, paving the way for a new era of high-quality evidence. These concepts share a common goal, sifting through the noise of heterogeneity in critical care to increase the value of existing and future research.

CONCLUSION

The future of critical care medicine will inevitably involve modification of statistical methods through Bayesian analyses and targeted therapeutics via phenotyping. Clinicians must be familiar with these systems that support recommendations to improve decision-making in the gray areas of critical care practice.

Glycemic Control and Risk of Congenital Malformations in Women With Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between maternal glycemic control and the risk of congenital malformations in offspring of women with type 1 diabetes and to examine whether there is a hemoglobin A1C (Hb A1C) threshold value at which the risk for malformations increases significantly.

METHODS

Analyses were performed on data from a multinational, observational cohort of 1,908 liveborn offspring of women with type 1 diabetes recruited in early pregnancy from 17 countries between 2013 and 2018. Offspring with malformations were identified according to European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies version 1.4 and categorized as having one or more major malformations or minor malformations exclusively. The association between first-trimester Hb A1C levels and the risk of congenital malformations was investigated with splines in crude and adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 11.9% of the offspring (n=227) of women with type 1 diabetes had congenital malformations, including 2.1% (n=40) with at least one severe malformation. Women giving birth to offspring with malformations had a higher prevalence of psychiatric disorders (13.2% vs 7.2%, P<.01), thyroid disorders (33.0% vs 26.7%, P<.05), and folic acid supplementation (87.1% vs 77.7%, P<.01). The Hb A1C levels in the first trimester were similar (median 6.8% [interquartile range 6.3-7.6%] vs 6.7% [6.2-7.6%], P=.13) compared with women giving birth to offspring without malformations. The spline analysis illustrated a curvilinear association between Hb A1C levels and the risk of malformations with no clear threshold values. Higher first-trimester Hb A1C levels were associated with an increased risk of malformations (crude odds ratio [OR] 1.13, 95% CI, 1.01-1.27, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.29, 95% CI, 1.10-1.51) and major malformations (crude OR 1.49, 95% CI, 1.23-1.81, aOR 1.57, 95% CI, 1.15-2.09).

CONCLUSION

An increased risk for congenital malformations was curvilinearly associated with higher Hb A1C levels in early pregnancy among women with type 1 diabetes without any threshold values identified.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01892319.

Association of oral hypofunction with aspiration pneumonia, fractures, and mortality in older Japanese adults

AIM

In Japan's public health system, dentists can assess and intervene in oral hypofunction cases. However, the associations between oral hypofunction and health outcomes and costs remain unclear. This study aimed to identify these associations.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study using a Japanese health insurance claims database included 45 916 individuals aged ≥65 years who underwent dental examinations for oral hypofunction. The primary outcomes were incidence rates of aspiration pneumonia, femoral or vertebral fractures and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were annual medical and dental costs. We used competing risk regression and Cox models to estimate primary outcomes, and gamma regression models for secondary outcomes.

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard ratios were 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.96) for the incidence of aspiration pneumonia, 1.11 (1.02-1.21) for the incidence of femoral or vertebral fractures and 1.27 (1.07-1.50) for all-cause mortality in individuals with oral hypofunction compared with those without. The adjusted relative risk was 1.05 (1.01-1.10) for annual medical costs and 0.94 (0.81-1.09) for annual dental costs in individuals with oral hypofunction compared with those without.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with oral hypofunction were at increased risk of femoral or vertebral fractures and all-cause mortality, and they incurred significantly higher annual medical costs, compared with those without this condition. Notably, they showed a lower risk of aspiration pneumonia, suggesting potential benefits of dental intervention. Integrating dental care into medical strategies might be necessary to improve health outcomes and reduce healthcare costs for those with oral hypofunction. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; ••: ••-••.

Umbilical Cord Blood as an Alternative to Neonatal Blood for Complete Blood Count: A Comparison Study

OBJECTIVE

To assess concordance between umbilical cord blood (UCB) and neonatal blood (NB) laboratory test results at birth.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective study considered very preterm neonates (<32 weeks' gestational age) admitted to a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit from 2012 to 2023. Inclusion criteria required neonates with a complete blood count measured in both UCB and NB drawn within 2 hours after birth. Median hemoglobin (Hb) and hematocrit (Hct) concentrations were compared between UCB (venous samples) and NB (venous, arterial, or capillary samples).

RESULTS

A total of 432 neonates with paired UCB and NB values were included in the study. Hb concentration in UCB was 14.7 g/dL (IQR 13.5-16.1 g/dL) compared with 14.8 g/dL (IQR 12.6-19.3 g/dL) in venous NB samples, 13.9 g/dL (IQR 12.9-15.3 g/dL) in arterial NB and 18.7 g/dL (IQR 16.6-20.8 g/dL) in capillary NB. The regression equation showed a correction factor of 1.08 for converting Hb values from UCB to venous NB. Median Hct concentration in UCB was 0.45 L/L (IQR: 0.41-0.49 L/L) compared with 0.48 L/L (IQR 0.43-0.54 L/L) in venous NB, 0.42 L/L (IQR 0.38-0.45 L/L) in arterial NB and 0.57 L/L, (IQR 0.51-0.63 L/L) in capillary NB.

CONCLUSIONS

Hb and Hct concentrations measured in UCB are similar to those measured in venous blood in very preterm infants and are valid alternatives for NB tests at birth. Hb and Hct concentrations in arterial and capillary NB are respectively lower and higher compared with UCB measurements.

Association between perception of harm and valence of shoulder movement images with disability levels related to chronic shoulder pain

ABSTRACT

Recent studies highlight an interplay between pain perception and emotional responses. This necessitates a thorough investigation into how beliefs and motivational influences respond to visual stimuli of movements. Such an analysis is crucial for understanding the extent to which these factors contribute to disability levels associated with shoulder pain. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the perception of harm and the valence in images depicting shoulder movements and determine how these perceptions are linked to disability levels associated with shoulder pain. This cross-sectional study recruited 42 individuals with chronic shoulder pain. Participants were presented with 58 shoulder movements images. Each participant evaluated these images for emotional valence and arousal using the self-assessment manikin. For every image, they provided their level of avoidance, fear, and perception of harm in a numerical scale. We measured disability levels and pain catastrophizing using the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. A direct acyclic graph was used. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted with shoulder disability as the dependent variable and perception of harm and valence as independent variables, adjusted for the confounders catastrophizing and arousal. This analysis resulted in a significant model (F4,37 = 11.44; adjusted R2 = 0.547; P < 0.01). The perception of harm to shoulder movement (β = 0.11; P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval = 5.6-11.8) was significantly associated with the level of shoulder disability, whereas valence did not show a significant association (β = 0.26; P = 0.15; 95% confidence interval = 1.7-10.8). The perception of harm associated with shoulder movements images during daily activities was associated with disability. Individuals who believe that shoulder movements are harmful have greater disability.

Effect of elevated depressive symptoms during adolescence on health-related quality of life in young adulthood-a six-year cohort study with repeated exposure measurements

Objectives

Depression is a major contributor of young people's burden of disease. In this study we aim to estimate the effect of elevated depressive symptoms on physical health-related quality of life.

Design

We used self-reported information from the prospective BELLA cohort study, which included adolescents selected from the general population in Germany. The baseline assessment (2003-2006) and the 1-, 2-, and 6-year follow-up waves provide the data basis.

Participants

The baseline study population consisted of 1,460 adolescents between the ages of 12 and 17 who, according to their caregivers, did not suffer from depression.

Variables

The primary outcome, as measured by the physical component score (PCS) of the SF-36 at a 6-year follow-up (range: 0-100), is physical health-related quality of life. The exposure of interest is depressive symptoms, as measured by the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC) at baseline, 1-year follow-up and 2-year follow-ups (range: 0-60). We dichotomized the exposure into subthreshold (≤15) and elevated depressive symptoms (>15). For the main analyses we considered a cumulative index for elevated depressive symptoms across the three time points (range: 0-3). Considered confounders are sex, age, socioeconomic status, migrant background, social support, anxiety symptoms, physical activity, chronic diseases, and sleeping problems.

Statistical methods

We used multiple imputation to account for missing values. Within each imputed dataset, we applied inverse probability weighting (IPW) to estimate the effect of the cumulative index for elevated depressive symptoms at baseline, 1- and 2-year follow-up on physical health-related quality of life at 6-year follow-up. We derived 95% confidence intervals by bootstrapping.

Results

After adjusting with IPW, the effect of the cumulative index per one unit increase of elevated depressive symptoms on the physical component score was -1.71 (95% CI: -3.51 to -0.04). The adjusted effect estimates of single exposure of elevated depressive symptoms on physical health-related quality of life were -0.83 (95% CI: -3.69 to 1.87) at baseline, -2.96 (95% CI: -4.94 to -0.52) at 1-year follow-up and -1.32 (95% CI: -3.85 to 1.15) at 2-year follow-up.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that elevated depressive symptoms during adolescence decrease physical health-related quality of life in young adulthood.

Epidemiology of Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis infection in dogs in Denmark

OBJECTIVES

This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the risk factors (age and breed group) associated with Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis infection in dogs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Faecal examinations obtained in dogs from January 2016 to December 2021 as part of routine clinical practice at two veterinary clinics in the Odsherred region of Zealand, Denmark, were included in this study. Faecal samples were analysed using the Baermann technique for nematode detection. Samples were collected from two clinics located in Northwestern Zealand, Denmark. Multinomial regression analysis, quasi-Poisson models and a generalised additive model for linearity were used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

A total of 2,013 faecal samples were included in the study. Age was a significant risk factor for a positive Baermann, with a negative linear relationship observed (A. vasorum odds ratio: 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.70 to 0.91, C. vulpis odds ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.91 to 0.99, both nematodes: odds ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.77 to 0.99). Breed group analysis considering retrievers and flushing and water dog as reference group, demonstrated that sheep- and cattle dogs had a reduced risk of C. vulpis infection (odds ratio: 0.49, 95% confidence interval: 0.24 to 0.97), whereas dachshunds had an increased risk of A. vasorum infection (odds ratio: 3.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.14 to 9.47). Variations in the number of nematodes was found, with companion and toy dogs exhibiting higher numbers of C. vulpis (incidence rate ratio: 21.40, 95% confidence interval: 2.88 to 159) and sheep- and cattle dogs displaying higher numbers of A. vasorum (incidence rate ratio: 30.20, 95% confidence interval: 7.33 to 125). The prevalence rates of C. vulpis and A. vasorum were estimated at 14.50% (95% confidence interval: 13 to 16.10) and 3.40% (95% confidence interval: 2.70 to 4.30), respectively.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

There are significant risk factors for nematode infection in dogs that can be considered for proper preventive care of this condition.

Substitutions of saturated fat intakes with other macronutrients and foods and risk of NAFLD cirrhosis and all-cause hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Short-term trials have shown a reduction in liver fat when saturated fatty acids (SFAs) are substituted with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), or with low-glycemic carbohydrates. However, few cohort studies have been conducted to investigate the associations of replacing SFA and SFA-rich foods with different macronutrients and foods in more severe stages of liver disease; nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate associations between the substitution of SFA and SFA-rich foods with other macronutrients and foods and NAFLD cirrhosis and HCC in a middle-aged to elderly Swedish population of n = 77,059 males and females.

METHODS

Time-to-event analyses were performed to investigate associations between the food and macronutrient substitutions and NAFLD cirrhosis and HCC. Multivariable Cox regression models were constructed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical isocaloric and equal-mass substitutions were performed using the leave-one-out method. Prespecified nutrient and food substitutions of interest were SFA with carbohydrates, SFA with fiber, SFA with PUFA, butter with margarine and vegetable oils, unprocessed red meat with fish, and milk with fermented milk.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 24 y, 566 cases of NAFLD cirrhosis and 205 cases of HCC were registered. Overall, dietary substitutions showed no clear associations with either NAFLD cirrhosis or HCC. Substituting SFA with carbohydrates showed an HR of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.02) for HCC and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.11) for NAFLD cirrhosis. Substituting milk with fermented milk showed an HR of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.01) for HCC and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.03) for NAFLD cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

No clear associations were observed between diet and NAFLD cirrhosis or HCC. Although accompanied by low precision, possible lowered risks of HCC by substituting SFA with carbohydrates or milk with fermented milk might be of interest, but needs replication in other cohorts.

Propensity Score-Weighted Analysis of Postoperative Infection in Patients With and Without Preoperative Urine Culture

Importance

Although recent guidelines recommend against performance of preoperative urine culture before nongenitourinary surgery, many clinicians still order preoperative urine cultures and prescribe antibiotics for treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria in an effort to reduce infection risk.

Objective

To assess the association between preoperative urine culture testing and postoperative urinary tract infection (UTI) or surgical site infection (SSI), independent of baseline patient characteristics or type of surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study analyzed surgical procedures performed from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, at any of 112 US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers. The cohort comprised VA enrollees who underwent major elective noncardiac, nonurological operations. Machine learning and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were used to balance the characteristics between those who did and did not undergo a urine culture. Data analyses were performed between January 2023 and January 2024.

Exposures

Performance of urine culture within 30 days prior to surgery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The 2 main outcomes were UTI and SSI occurring within 30 days after surgery. Weighted logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for postoperative infection based on treatment status.

Results

A total of 250 389 VA enrollees who underwent 288 858 surgical procedures were included, with 88.9% (256 753) of surgical procedures received by males and 48.9% (141 340) received by patients 65 years or older. Baseline characteristics were well balanced among treatment groups after applying IPTW weights. Preoperative urine culture was performed for 10.5% of surgical procedures (30 384 of 288 858). The IPTW analysis found that preoperative urine culture was not associated with SSI (adjusted OR [AOR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90-1.10) or postoperative UTI (AOR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.98-1.40). In analyses limited to orthopedic surgery and neurosurgery as a proxy for prosthetic implants, the adjusted risks for UTI and SSI were also not associated with preoperative urine culture performance.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found no association between performance of a preoperative urine culture and lower risk of postoperative UTI or SSI. The results support the deimplementation of urine cultures and associated antibiotic treatment prior to surgery, even when using prosthetic implants.

Effect of Seclusion on Mental Health Status in Hospitalized Psychiatric Populations: A Trial Emulation using Observational Data

The use of coercive practices, i.e., interventions against a person's will, is controversial. Recent observational studies highlighted their potential detrimental effects on patients' mental health, but this topic remains understudied. This study investigated the effect of a common coercive practice, seclusion (i.e., being locked in a closed room), on mental health using a trial emulation of observational data to allow causal inference. We used data from 1200 psychiatric inpatients, classified as being either secluded or non-secluded during their hospital stay. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to emulate the random assignment to the intervention. The primary outcome was the Health of the Nations Outcome Scales (HoNOS). The secondary outcome was the first item of the HoNOS, which focuses on overactive, aggressive, disruptive, or agitated behavior. Both outcomes were assessed at hospital discharge. There was a significant effect of seclusion with increases in both total HoNOS score (p = .002) and item 1 of the HoNOS (p = .01). Seclusion may have a negative causal effect of patients' mental health status and should therefore be avoided in mental health care settings. Training efforts should raise the awareness of the medical staff about potential adverse effects instead of therapeutic benefits.

Movement efficiency in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a report from the St. Jude lifetime cohort study

PURPOSE

Movement efficiency, a measure of neuromuscular biomechanics, may be modified by physical activity. We aimed to assess the risk of and risk factors for low movement efficiency in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL).

METHODS

Participants underwent an assessment of activity energy expenditure (AEE) with actigraphy, and the gold standard doubly labeled water, where the differences between elimination rates of oxygen and hydrogen from body water are evaluated over a week. Movement efficiency was assessed using the raw residuals of a linear regression between AEEs from accelerometers and doubly labeled water. Elastic-net logistic regressions were used to identify demographic, treatment, and functional variables associated with movement efficiency.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 256 non-cancer controls and 302 ALL survivors (48% female), categorized as efficient (N = 24), normal (N = 245), or inefficient (N = 33) based on their movement efficiency. There was no difference in the odds for poor movement efficiency between survivors (n = 33, 10.9%) compared to controls (n = 23, 9.0%, odds ratio [OR]: 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67, 2.10; p = 0.55). In survivors, neuropathy was associated with a higher risk of being inefficient compared to efficient (OR 4.30, 95% CI 1.03-17.96), while obesity (≥ 30 kg/m2) had a protective association (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Neuropathy was associated with a higher risk of poor movement efficiency in survivors of childhood ALL.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS

These results further highlight impairments associated with treatment-induced neuropathy in survivors of childhood ALL.

The impact of maternal pertussis vaccination recommendation on infant pertussis incidence and mortality in the USA: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Pertussis is a contagious respiratory disease. Maternal tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccination during pregnancy has been recommended by the United States Centres for Disease Control (US CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for unvaccinated pregnant women since October 2011 to prevent infection among infants; in 2012, ACIP extended this recommendation to every pregnancy, regardless of previous vaccination status. The population-level effect of these recommendations on infant pertussis is unknown. This study aimed to examine the impact of the 2011/2012 ACIP pertussis recommendation on pertussis incidence and mortality among US infants.

METHODS

We used monthly data on pertussis deaths among infants aged <1 year between January 2005 and December 2017 in the CDC Death Data and yearly infant pertussis incidence data from the CDC National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System to perform an interrupted time series analysis, accounting for the passage of the Affordable Care Act.

RESULTS

This study included 156 months of data. A potential decline in trend in infant pertussis incidence was noted during the post-recommendations period. No appreciable differences in trend were found in population-level infant pertussis mortality after the guideline changes in both adjusted and unadjusted models. Results were similar for all mortality sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2011/2012 ACIP maternal pertussis vaccination recommendations were not associated with a population-level change in the trend in mortality, but were potentially associated with a decrease in incidence in the USA between 2005 and 2017.

No Superior Bone Union Outcomes with Allografts Compared to No Grafts and Autografts Following Medial Opening Wedge High Tibial Osteotomy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

There has been long-standing debate about whether a medial opening wedge high tibial osteotomy (MOWHTO) gap should be filled with autologous bone graft or any other filler to expedite the healing process. The main purpose of this study was to compare the clinical and radiological outcomes of MOWHTO with an opening gap ≥10 mm, utilizing autograft, allograft, or no graft at 1 year postoperatively.

METHODS

A total of 68 patients were included in this retrospective study and divided into three treatment groups: Group A (no bone graft), Group B (autologous iliac crest graft), and Group C (allogenous tibia plateau graft). At postoperative 1-year follow-up, the area of callus filling in the most medial side of the knee was measured using anteroposterior radiographs, and a modified van Hemert scoring system was used to evaluate bone union outcomes in five mediolaterally divided zones. Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores and relevant complications were assessed. The correlations between the gap width and bone union scores were evaluated.

RESULTS

Patients in the autograft group demonstrated better bone union progression (p = 0.031) and higher bone union scores (p < 0.01) compared to patients in the allograft or no graft groups. There were no significant differences in terms of postoperative WOMAC scores and incidence of complications among the three groups. No discernible linear relationships between the width of the opening gap and the bone union score were found.

CONCLUSION

For MOWHTOs with an average gap opening width of 12.1 mm, autografts resulted in superior bone union outcomes compared to allografts and no graft at 1 year postoperatively. However, no bone graft achieved similar outcomes to allografts, suggesting that routine use of allografts should not be recommended.

Functional limitations of people with rheumatoid arthritis or axial spondyloarthritis and severe functional disability: a cross-sectional descriptive study

The objective of the study is to describe the nature of functional limitations in activities and participation in people with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) or axial SpondyloArthritis (axSpA) with severe functional disability. Baseline data from people with RA (n = 206) or axSpA (n = 155) and severe functional disability participating in an exercise trial were used. Their three most limited activities were derived from the Patient Specific Complaint (PSC) instrument and linked to the International Classification of Functioning and Health (ICF). The frequencies of ICF categories were calculated and compared with Activities and Participation items of the ICF Core Sets for RA (32 second-level categories) and Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) (24 second-level categories). In total 618 and 465 PSC activities were linked to 909 (72 unique in total; 25 unique second-level) and 759 (57 unique in total; 23 unique second-level) ICF categories in RA and axSpA. Taking into account all three prioritized activities, the five most frequent limited activities concerned the ICF chapter "Mobility", and included "Walking" (RA and axSpA 2 categories), "Changing basic body position" (RA and axSpA 1 category), "Stair climbing"(RA) and "Grasping" (RA),"Lifting" (axSpA) and "Maintaining a standing position" (axSpA). In RA, 21/32 (66%) and in axSpA 14/24 (58%) unique second-level categories identified in the prioritized activities are present in the Comprehensive Core Sets. Most limitations of people with RA or axSpA and severe functional disability were seen in the ICF chapter "Mobility". Most of the identified ICF categories were covered by the corresponding items of the ICF RA and AS Core Sets.

Secondary Bony Defects after Soft Tissue Reconstruction in Limb-Threatening Lower Extremity Injuries: Does the Approach to Flap Elevation Matter?

BACKGROUND

 Limb-threatening lower extremity injuries often require secondary bone grafting after soft tissue reconstruction. We hypothesized that there would be fewer wound complications when performing secondary bone grafting via a remote surgical approach rather than direct flap elevation.

METHODS

 A retrospective cohort study was performed at a single Level 1 trauma center comparing complications after secondary bone grafting in patients who had undergone previous soft tissue reconstruction after open tibia fractures between 2006 and 2020. Comparing bone grafting via a remote surgical incision versus direct flap elevation, we evaluated wound dehiscence requiring return to the operating room as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were deep infection and delayed amputation.

RESULTS

 We identified 129 patients (mean age: 40 years, 82% male) with 159 secondary bone grafting procedures. Secondary bone grafting was performed via a remote surgical approach in 54% (n = 86) and direct flap elevation in 46% (n = 73) of cases. Wound dehiscence requiring return to the operating room occurred in one patient in the flap elevation group (1%) and none of the patients in the remote surgical approach. The odds of deep wound infection (OR, 1.77; p = 0.31) or amputation (OR, 1.43; p = 0.73) did not significantly differ between surgical approaches. No significant differences were found in complications between the reconstructive surgeon elevating and re-insetting the flap and the orthopaedic trauma surgeon performing the flap elevation and re-inset.

CONCLUSION

 Direct flap elevation for secondary bone grafting after soft tissue reconstruction for open tibia fractures did not result in more complications than bone grafting via a remote surgical approach. These findings should reassure surgeons to allow other clinical factors to influence the surgical approach for bone grafting.

Microbiological profile of patients treated for postoperative peritonitis: temporal trends 1999-2019

BACKGROUND

Temporal changes in the microbiological resistance profile have been reported in several life-threatening infections. However, no data have ever assessed this issue in postoperative peritonitis (POP). Our purpose was to assess the rate of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in POP over a two-decade period and to analyse their influence on the adequacy of empirical antibiotic therapy (EAT).

METHODS

This retrospective monocentric analysis (1999-2019) addressed the changes over time in microbiologic data, including the emergence of MDROs and the adequacy of EAT for all intensive care unit adult patients treated for POP. The in vitro activities of 10 antibiotics were assessed to determine the most adequate EAT in the largest number of cases among 17 antibiotic regimens in patients with/without MDRO isolates. Our primary endpoint was to determine the frequency of MDRO and their temporal changes. Our second endpoint assessed the impact of MDROs on the adequacy of EAT per patient and their temporal changes based on susceptibility testing. In this analysis, the subgroup of patients with MDRO was compared with the subgroup of patients free of MDRO.

RESULTS

A total of 1,318 microorganisms were cultured from 422 patients, including 188 (45%) patients harbouring MDROs. The growing proportions of MDR Enterobacterales were observed over time (p = 0.016), including ESBL-producing strains (p = 0.0013), mainly related to Klebsiella spp (p < 0.001). Adequacy of EAT was achieved in 305 (73%) patients. Decreased adequacy rates were observed when MDROs were cultured [p = 0.0001 vs. MDRO-free patients]. Over the study period, decreased adequacy rates were reported for patients receiving piperacillin/tazobactam in monotherapy or combined with vancomycin and imipenem/cilastatin combined with vancomycin (p < 0.01 in the three cases). In patients with MDROs, the combination of imipenem/cilastatin + vancomycin + amikacin or ciprofloxacin reached the highest adequacy rates (95% and 91%, respectively) and remained unchanged over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed high proportions of MDRO in patients treated for POP associated with increasing proportions of MDR Enterobacterales over time. High adequacy rates were only achieved in antibiotic combinations involving carbapenems and vancomycin, while piperacillin/tazobactam is no longer a drug of choice for EAT in POP in infections involving MDRO.

APOE-Genotype and Insulin Modulate Estimated Effect of Dietary Macronutrients on Cognitive Performance: Panel Analyses in Nondiabetic Older Adults at Risk of Dementia

BACKGROUND

The apolipoprotein E gene (APOE ε-2/3/4, combined as 6 different genotypes: ε-22/23/24/33/34/44) and insulin status modulate dementia risk and play a role in the metabolism of macronutrients.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine APOE-genotype and fasting insulin as effect modifiers of the slopes between dietary macronutrients and cognitive performance among older adults at risk of dementia.

METHODS

Panel analyses-with diet and cognition measured at baseline and follow-up at years 1 and 2-were performed in a sub-sample from the FINGER (Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability) trial (n = 676, 60-77 y, 46% females, all nondiabetics). The associations between macronutrients (3-d food records, z-scores) and global cognition (modified Neuropsychological Test Battery, z-score) were analyzed in mixed regression models adjusted for confounders selected a priori. After a gradient was implied by the point estimates in categorical APOE analyses, we investigated a continuous APOE variable [APOE-gradient, coded -1 (for ε-23), -0.5 (ε-24), 0 (ε-33), 1 (ε-34), 2 (ε-44)] as an effect-modifier.

RESULTS

At increasing levels of the APOE-gradient, a relatively more favorable slope between diet and cognition was observed for a lower carbohydrate/fat ratio [β = -0.040, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.074, -0.006; P = 0.020 for interaction diet × APOE-gradient), and higher protein (β = 0.075, 95% CI: 0.042, 0.109; P = 9.4 × 10-6). Insulin concentration (log-linear) modulated the association between the carbohydrate/fat ratio and cognition by a quadratic interaction (β = -0.016, P = 0.039). Coherent findings for exploratory predictors (fiber, fat subtypes, composite score, metabolic biomarkers) were compatible with published hypotheses of differential dietary adaptation by APOE, with cognition among ε-33 being relatively independent of dietary parameters-implying "metabolic flexibility." Antagonistic slopes to cognition for ε-23 (positive) compared with ε-34 and ε-44 (negative) were found for a Higher-carbohydrates-fiber-Lower-fat-protein composite score, even as within-subjects effects.

CONCLUSIONS

APOE-based precision nutrition appears conceptually promising, but replications in wider samples are warranted, as well as support from trials. Both relative hyper- and hypoinsulinemia might modulate the effect of diet on cognition.

Fetal Exposure to Preeclampsia and Later Risk of Cardiometabolic Disorders: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Fetal preeclampsia exposure has been associated with later cardiometabolic disease. However, this association has been investigated in few large population-wide studies, and it is unknown whether the association represents a causal relationship or is the result of shared etiological factors.

METHODS

To further investigate the relationship between preeclampsia exposure and later cardiometabolic disease, we identified 1 692 944 singleton infants born in Norway during 1967 to 1997, where 44 299 were exposed to preeclampsia in utero. The individuals were followed for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia as defined by dispensed medication. We used Cox regression models to calculate the association between preeclampsia exposure and cardiometabolic outcomes adjusting for measured confounders. We also used full sibling comparisons and stratified Cox regression to control for unmeasured familial confounders.

RESULTS

On the population level, exposed individuals had increased risk of hypertension (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.51 [95% CI, 1.41-1.63]), diabetes (aHR 1.33 [95% CI, 1.24-1.43], and dyslipidemia (aHR 1.28 [95% CI, 1.13-1.45]) compared with unexposed individuals. In sibling data, individuals not exposed to preeclampsia, but with an exposed sibling, had higher risk of hypertension and diabetes than individuals where no siblings were exposed to preeclampsia. Moreover, when comparing siblings discordant on preeclampsia exposure, there were no associations between preeclampsia and hypertension (aHR 1.05 [95% CI, 0.88-1.26]), diabetes (aHR 0.96 [95% CI, 0.80-1.14]), and dyslipidemia (aHR 0.86 [95% CI, 0.62-1.20]).

CONCLUSIONS

Fetal preeclampsia exposure was associated with adult life hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia, but these associations were likely due to shared etiological factors, rather than exposure to the preeclamptic condition itself.

Case study of semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes: An application of the Causal Roadmap to a hybrid design for augmenting an RCT control arm with real-world data

Introduction

Increasing interest in real-world evidence has fueled the development of study designs incorporating real-world data (RWD). Using the Causal Roadmap, we specify three designs to evaluate the difference in risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care: (1) the actual sequence of non-inferiority and superiority randomized controlled trials (RCTs), (2) a single RCT, and (3) a hybrid randomized-external data study.

Methods

The hybrid design considers integration of the PIONEER 6 RCT with RWD controls using the experiment-selector cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator. We evaluate 95% confidence interval coverage, power, and average patient time during which participants would be precluded from receiving a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) for each design using simulations. Finally, we estimate the effect of oral semaglutide on MACE for the hybrid PIONEER 6-RWD analysis.

Results

In simulations, Designs 1 and 2 performed similarly. The tradeoff between decreased coverage and patient time without the possibility of a GLP1-RA for Designs 1 and 3 depended on the simulated bias. In real data analysis using Design 3, external controls were integrated in 84% of cross-validation folds, resulting in an estimated risk difference of -1.53%-points (95% CI -2.75%-points to -0.30%-points).

Conclusions

The Causal Roadmap helps investigators to minimize potential bias in studies using RWD and to quantify tradeoffs between study designs. The simulation results help to interpret the level of evidence provided by the real data analysis in support of the superiority of oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care for cardiovascular risk reduction.

The Association between Birthweight and Use of Cardiovascular Medications: The Role of Health Behaviors

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the effect of low birthweight on the use of cardiovascular medications and the role of health behaviors. This study aims to determine the independent effect of low birthweight and its combination with adult health behaviors on the number of dispensed cardiovascular medications.

METHODS

We included 15618 participants with information on birthweight and self-reported health behaviors. Dispensed cardiovascular medications were identified from the Prescribed Drug Register based on a three-digit level Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification code (C01 to C10 and B01) and categorized into 0, 1, and ≥2 different types of medications. We applied multinomial logistic regression models estimating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Participants with low birthweight had a higher estimated OR of using ≥2 types of cardiovascular medications (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.06, 2.01). Further, an increased risk for using ≥2 types of cardiovascular medications was found in participants with poor health behaviors for normal (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.80, 2.62) and high (OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.29, 2.62) birthweight. The strongest effect on using ≥2 types of cardiovascular medications was found for low birthweight and poor health behaviors (OR = 3.14, 95% CI = 1.80, 5.50).

CONCLUSION

This cohort study provides evidence that low birthweight increases the risk of using more types of cardiovascular medications in adulthood. This study also suggests that ideal health behaviors reduce this risk.

Emulated trial investigating effects of multiple treatments: estimating combined effects of mucoactive nebulisers in cystic fibrosis using registry data

INTRODUCTION

People with cystic fibrosis (CF) are often on multiple long-term treatments, including mucoactive nebulisers. In the UK, the most common mucoactive nebuliser is dornase alfa (DNase). A common therapeutic approach for people already on DNase is to add hypertonic saline (HS). The effects of DNase and HS used alone have been studied in randomised trials, but their effects in combination have not. This study investigates whether, for people already prescribed DNase, adding HS has additional benefit for lung function or use of intravenous antibiotics.

METHODS

Using UK CF Registry data from 2007 to 2018, we emulated a target trial. We included people aged 6 years and over who were prescribed DNase without HS for 2 years. We investigated the effects of combinations of DNase and HS over 5 years of follow-up. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting was used to control confounding. The period predated triple combination CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulators in routine care.

RESULTS

4498 individuals were included. At baseline, average age and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%) predicted were 21.1 years and 69.7 respectively. During first year of follow-up, 3799 individuals were prescribed DNase alone; 426 added HS; 57 switched to HS alone and 216 were prescribed neither. We found no evidence that adding HS improved FEV1% at 1-5 years, or use of intravenous antibiotics at 1-4 years, compared with DNase alone.

CONCLUSION

For individuals with CF prescribed DNase, we found no evidence that adding HS had an effect on FEV1% or prescription of intravenous antibiotics. Our study illustrates the emulated target trial approach using CF Registry data.

Do superficial infections increase the risk of deep infections in tibial plateau and plafond fractures?

PURPOSE

Open reduction internal fixation of tibial plateau and pilon fractures may be complicated by deep surgical site infection requiring operative debridement and antibiotic therapy. The management of superficial surgical site infection is controversial. We sought to determine whether superficial infection is associated with an increased risk of deep infection requiring surgical debridement after fixation of tibial plateau and pilon fractures.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of data from the VANCO trial, which included 980 adult patients with a tibial plateau or pilon fracture at elevated risk of infection who underwent open reduction internal fixation with plates and screws with or without intrawound vancomycin powder. An association of superficial surgical site infection with deep surgical site infection requiring debridement surgery and antibiotics was explored after matching on risk factors for deep surgical site infection.

RESULTS

Of the 980 patients, we observed 30 superficial infections (3.1%) and 76 deep infections (7.8%). Among patients who developed a superficial infection, the unadjusted incidence of developing a deep infection within 90 days was 12.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-24.2%). However, after a 3:1 match on infection risk factors, the 90-day marginal probability of a deep surgical site infection after sustaining a superficial infection was 6.0% (95% CI  - 6.5-18.5%, p = 0.35).

CONCLUSION

Deep infection after superficial infection is uncommon following operative fixation of tibial plateau and pilon fractures. Increased risk of subsequent deep infection attributable to superficial infection was inconclusive in these data.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level II.

Associations between cardiorespiratory fitness in youth and the incidence of site-specific cancer in men: a cohort study with register linkage

OBJECTIVES

To assess the associations between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in young men and the incidence of site-specific cancer.

METHODS

A Swedish population-based cohort study with register linkage of men who underwent military conscription in 1968-2005 was undertaken. CRF was assessed by maximal aerobic workload cycle test at conscription. Cox regression models assessed linear associations and included CRF, age, year and site of conscription, body mass index and parental level of education. CRF was also categorised into low, moderate and high for facilitated interpretation and results comparing high and low CRF are reported.

RESULTS

Primary analyses were performed in 1 078 000 men, of whom 84 117 subsequently developed cancer in at least one site during a mean follow-up of 33 years. Higher CRF was linearly associated with a lower hazard ratio (HR) of developing cancer in the head and neck (n=2738, HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.90), oesophagus (n=689, HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.74), stomach (n=902, HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.94), pancreas (n=1280, HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.01), liver (n=1111, HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.71), colon (n=3222, HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.90), rectum (n=2337, HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.05), kidney (n=1753, HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.90) and lung (n=1635, HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.66). However, higher CRF predicted a higher hazard of being diagnosed with prostate cancer (n=14 232, HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12) and malignant skin cancer (n=23 064, HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.36).

CONCLUSION

We report a number of protective associations between higher CRF in healthy young men and the subsequent hazard of site-specific cancers. These results have implications for public health policymaking, strengthening the incentive to promote health through improving CRF in youth.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and BMI measured in youth and 5-year mortality after site-specific cancer diagnoses in men-A population-based cohort study with register linkage

BACKGROUND

Our aim was to assess associations between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and body mass index (BMI) in youth and 5-year mortality after site-specific cancer diagnoses in men.

METHODS

Men with cancer from a population who underwent military conscription at ages 16-25 during 1968-2005 in Sweden were included. CRF was assessed as maximal aerobic workload on a cycle ergometer test and was classified as low, moderate, or high. BMI (kg/m2 ) was classified as underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5-24.9), overweight (25-29.9), or obesity (>30). Conscription data were linked with register data on cancer diagnosis and mortality. Analyses included CRF, BMI, date of diagnosis, and age, year, and center for conscription.

RESULTS

A total of 84,621 cancer cases were included. Mean age at diagnosis was 52 years. Follow-up data were available during a mean of 6.5 years. There were linear protective associations between CRF and mortality after any cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] for high vs. low CRF 0.70), malignant skin cancer (HR 0.80), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 0.78), and cancer in the lungs (HR 0.80), head and neck (HR 0.68), pancreas (HR 0.83), stomach (HR 0.78), liver (HR 0.84), rectum (HR 0.79), and bladder (HR 0.71). Overweight and/or obesity were associated with increased mortality after any cancer (HR for obesity vs. normal weight 1.89), malignant skin cancer (HR 2.03), Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 2.86) and cancer in the head and neck (HR 1.38), thyroid (HR 3.04), rectum (HR 1.53), kidney (HR 1.90), bladder (HR 2.10), and prostate (HR 2.44).

CONCLUSION

We report dose-dependent associations between CRF and BMI in youth and mortality after site-specific cancer diagnoses in men. The associations with mortality could be due to both cancer inhibition and an improved tolerance to withstand cancer treatment. These results strengthen the incentive for public health efforts aimed at establishing a high CRF and normal weight in youth.

Demystifying BRAF Mutation Status in Colorectal Liver Metastases : A Multi-institutional, Collaborative Approach to 6 Open Clinical Questions

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the clinical implications of BRAF -mutated (mut BRAF ) colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs).

BACKGROUND

The clinical implications of mut BRAF status in CRLMs are largely unknown.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection for mut BRAF CRLM were identified from prospectively maintained registries of the collaborating institutions. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were compared among patients with V600E versus non-V600E mutations, KRAS/BRAF comutation versus mut BRAF alone, microsatellite stability status (Microsatellite Stable (MSS) vs instable (MSI-high)), upfront resectable versus converted tumors, extrahepatic versus liver-limited disease, and intrahepatic recurrence treated with repeat hepatectomy versus nonoperative management.

RESULTS

A total of 240 patients harboring BRAF -mutated tumors were included. BRAF V600E mutation was associated with shorter OS (30.6 vs 144 mo, P =0.004), but not RFS compared with non-V600E mutations. KRAS/BRAF comutation did not affect outcomes. MSS tumors were associated with shorter RFS (9.1 vs 26 mo, P <0.001) but not OS (33.5 vs 41 mo, P =0.3) compared with MSI-high tumors, whereas patients with resected converted disease had slightly worse RFS (8 vs 11 mo, P =0.01) and similar OS (30 vs 40 mo, P =0.4) compared with those with upfront resectable disease. Patients with extrahepatic disease had worse OS compared with those with liver-limited disease (8.8 vs 40 mo, P <0.001). Repeat hepatectomy after intrahepatic recurrence was associated with improved OS compared with nonoperative management (41 vs 18.7 mo, P =0.004). All results continued to hold true in the multivariable OS analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although surgery may be futile in patients with BRAF -mutated CRLM and concurrent extrahepatic disease, resection of converted disease resulted in encouraging survival in the absence of extrahepatic spread. Importantly, second hepatectomy in select patients with recurrence was associated with improved outcomes. Finally, MSI-high status identifies a better prognostic group, with regard to RFS while patients with non-V600E mutations have excellent prognosis.

Variation in Early Anakinra Use and Short-Term Outcomes in Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children

OBJECTIVE

Evidence regarding effectiveness of interleukin-1 receptor antagonism in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is lacking. We characterized variation in initial treatment with anakinra and evaluated cardiovascular outcomes associated with adding anakinra to standard initial therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of MIS-C cases in a US surveillance registry from November 2020 to December 2021. Day 0 was the first calendar day of immunomodulatory treatment. Factors associated with initial anakinra use (days 0-1) were identified. We compared cases in patients ages 2-20 years receiving intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and glucocorticoids versus anakinra plus IVIG and/or glucocorticoids on days 0-1, using inverse probability weighting to balance disease severity. Primary outcomes were vasopressor requirement on day 3 and impaired left ventricular ejection fraction on days 3-4. The secondary outcome was 50% reduction in C-reactive protein on day 3.

RESULTS

Among 1,516 MIS-C cases at 44 sites, 193 (13%) patients received anakinra alone or with other immunomodulators as initial treatment (range 0-74% by site). Site accounted for 59% of residual variance in anakinra use. After balancing disease severity, initial treatment with anakinra plus IVIG and/or glucocorticoids (n = 121) versus IVIG plus glucocorticoids (n = 389) was not associated with significant differences in vasopressor requirement (25.6% versus 20.1%, respectively; risk ratio [RR] 1.27 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.88-1.84]), ventricular dysfunction (33.7% versus 25.7%, respectively; RR 1.31 [95% CI 0.98-1.75]), or C-reactive protein reduction.

CONCLUSION

We identified substantial variation in initial anakinra use in a real-world population of children with MIS-C, but no average short-term improvement in cardiovascular outcomes associated with early addition of anakinra to IVIG and/or glucocorticoids compared to IVIG and glucocorticoids alone.

Life expectancy following a cardiovascular event in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes: A UK multi-ethnic population-based observational study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the life expectancy following the first cardiovascular disease (CVD) event by type 2 diabetes (T2D) status and ethnicity.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database in England (UK), linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics information, to identify individuals with and without T2D who survived a first CVD event between 1st Jan 2007 and 31st Dec 2017; subsequent death events were extracted from the Office for National Statistics database. Ethnicity was categorised as White, South Asian (SA), Black, or other. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate survival and predict life expectancy. 59,939 individuals with first CVD event were included: 7596 (12.7%) with T2D (60.9% men; mean age at event: 69.7 years [63.2 years in SA, 65.9 in Black, 70.2 in White]) and 52,343 without T2D (56.7% men; 65.9 years [54.7 in Black, 58.2 in SA, 66.3 in White]). Accounting for potential confounders (sex, deprivation, lipid-lowering medication, current smoking, and pre-existing hypertension), comparing individuals with vs without T2D the mortality rate was 53% higher in White (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.53 [95% CI: 1.44, 1.62]), corresponding to a potential loss of 3.87 (3.30, 4.44) life years at the age of 50 years in individuals with T2D. No evidence of a difference in life expectancy was observed in individuals of SA (HR: 0.82 [0.52, 1.29]; -1.36 [-4.58, 1.86] life years), Black (HR: 1.26 [0.59, 2.70]; 1.21 [-2.99, 5.41] life years); and other (HR: 1.64 [0.80, 3.39]; 3.89 [-2.28, 9.99] life years) ethnic group.

CONCLUSION

Following a CVD event, T2D is associated with a different prognosis and life years lost among ethnic groups.

Association between intraoperative remifentanil use and postoperative hyperalgesia in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis surgery: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The liberal use of remifentanil in spine surgery has been associated with an increased incidence of postoperative hyperalgesia. Nevertheless, controversies remain as the existing evidence is inconclusive to determine the relationship between remifentanil use and the development of opioid-induced hyperalgesia. We hypothesized that intraoperative infusion of higher dose remifentanil during scoliosis surgery is associated with postoperative hyperalgesia, manifesting clinically as greater postoperative morphine consumption and pain scores.

METHODS

Ninety-seven patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) who underwent posterior spinal fusion surgery at a single tertiary institution from March 2019 until June 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Anesthesia was maintained using a target-controlled infusion of remifentanil combined with volatile anesthetic desflurane in 92 patients, while five patients received it as part of total intravenous anesthesia. Intravenous ketamine, paracetamol, and fentanyl were administered as multimodal analgesia. All patients received patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) morphine postoperatively. Pain scores at rest and on movement, assessed using the numerical rating scale, and the cumulative PCA morphine consumption were collected at a six-hourly interval for up to 48 h. According to the median intraoperative remifentanil dose usage of 0.215 µg/kg/min, patients were divided into two groups: low dose and high dose group.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the pain score and cumulative PCA morphine consumption between the low and high dose remifentanil group. The mean duration of remifentanil infusion was 134.9 ± 22.0 and 123.4 ± 23.7 min, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Intraoperative use of remifentanil as an adjuvant in AIS patients undergoing posterior spinal fusion surgery was not associated with postoperative hyperalgesia.

Comparative effectiveness of bovine carotid artery xenograft and polytetrafluoroethylene in hemodialysis access revision

BACKGROUND

When hemodialysis arteriovenous accesses fail, autogenous options are often limited. Non-autogenous conduit choices include bovine carotid artery xenografts (BCAG) and expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), yet their comparative effectiveness in hemodialysis access revision remains largely unknown.

METHODS

A cohort study was performed from a prospectively collected institutional database from August 2010 to July 2021. All patients undergoing an arteriovenous access revision with either BCAG or PTFE were followed for up to 3 years from their index access revision. Revision was defined as graft placement to address a specific problem of an existing arteriovenous access while maintaining one or more of the key components of the original access (e.g. inflow, outflow, and cannulation zone). Outcomes were measured starting at the date of the index revision procedure. The primary outcome was loss of secondary patency at 3 years. Secondary outcomes included loss of post-intervention primary patency, rates of recurrent interventions, and 30-day complications. Pooled logistic regression was used to estimate inverse probability weighted marginal structural models for the time-to-event outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 159 patients were included in the study, and 58% received access revision with BCAG. Common indications for revision included worn out cannulation zones (32%), thrombosis (18%), outflow augmentation (16%), and inflow augmentation (13%). Estimated risk of secondary patency loss at 3 years was lower in the BCAG group (8.6%, 3.9-15.1) compared to the PTFE group (24.8%, 12.4-38.7). Patients receiving BCAG experienced a 60% decreased relative risk of secondary patency loss at 3 years (risk ratio 0.40, 0.14-0.86). Recurrent interventions occurred at similar rates in the BCAG and PTFE groups, with 1.86 (1.31-2.43) and 1.60 (1.07-2.14) interventions at 1 year, respectively (hazard ratio 1.22, 0.74-1.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Under the conditions of this contemporary cohort study, use of BCAG in upper extremity hemodialysis access revision decreased access abandonment when compared to PTFE.

Ocular Adverse Events after Coronavirus Disease 2019 mRNA Vaccination: Matched Cohort and Self-Controlled Case Series Studies Using a Large Database

PURPOSE

To investigate the risk of ocular adverse events after Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccination.

DESIGN

Matched cohort and self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies.

PARTICIPANTS

We used a population-based database of medical claims and vaccination records in a large Japanese city. In the matched cohort study, we identified individuals who received COVID-19 vaccination (BNT162b2) from February 2021 to September 2021. One control was selected from nonvaccinated individuals by matching time, date of birth, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, and the enrollment period for health insurance. In the SCCS study, we analyzed individuals who developed ocular adverse events.

METHODS

In the matched cohort study, we applied the Kaplan-Meier estimator to estimate the cumulative incidence of ocular adverse events over 21 days after the first dose and 84 days after the second dose. In the SCCS method, we used conditional Poisson regression to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of ocular adverse events during the risk periods (0-21 days after the first dose and 0-84 days after the second dose) compared with the remaining periods.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Composite outcome of uveitis, scleritis, retinal vein occlusion (RVO), and optic neuritis.

RESULTS

There were 99 718 pairs eligible for the matched cohort study after the first dose (mean age, 69.3 years; male, 44%). The vaccinated and control groups developed 29 and 21 events, respectively, over 21 days after the first dose, and 79 and 28 events, respectively, over 84 days after the second dose. The differences in cumulative incidence (reference, the control group) were 2.9 (95% confidence interval, -14.5 to 19.1) events/100 000 persons and 51.3 (16.2-84.3) events/100 000 persons, respectively, for the first and second doses. The SCCS study showed the IRRs of 0.89 (0.62-1.28) and 0.89 (0.71-1.11) for the first and second doses, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The matched cohort analysis found an increased risk for the composite outcome after the second dose; however, the SCCS analysis showed no increased risk. Considering that the SCCS can cancel out time-invariant confounders, the current results suggest that COVID-19 vaccination is unlikely to causally increase the risk of ocular adverse events.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Risk and Subtypes of Stroke Following New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Coronary Bypass Surgery: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) develops in approximately one-third of patients undergoing cardiac surgery and is associated with a higher incidence of ischemic stroke and increased mortality. However, it remains unknown to what extent ischemic stroke events in patients with POAF are cardioembolic and whether anticoagulant therapy is indicated. We investigated the long-term risk and pathogenesis of postoperative stroke in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting experiencing POAF. Methods and Results This was a register-based cohort study. Data from the WDHR (Western Denmark Heart Registry) were linked with the DNPR (Danish National Patient Register), the Danish National Prescription Register, and the Cause of Death Register. All stroke diagnoses were verified, and ischemic stroke cases were subclassified according to pathogenesis. Furthermore, investigations of all-cause mortality and the use of anticoagulation medicine for the individual patient were performed. A total of 7813 patients without a preoperative history of atrial fibrillation underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018, in Western Denmark. POAF was registered in 2049 (26.2%) patients, and a postoperative ischemic stroke was registered in 195 (2.5%) of the patients. After adjustment, there was no difference in the risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 0.74-1.56]) or all-cause mortality (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 0.98-1.23]) between patients who developed POAF and non-POAF patients. Although not statistically significant, patients with POAF had a higher incidence rate (IR; per 1000 patient-years) of cardioembolic stroke (IR, 1 [95% CI, 0.6-1.6] versus IR, 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-0.8]), whereas non-POAF patients had a higher incidence rate of large-artery occlusion stroke (IR, 1.1 [95% CI, 0.8-1.5] versus IR, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.4-1.4]). Early initiation of anticoagulation medicine was not associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. However, patients with POAF were more likely to die of cardiovascular causes than non-POAF patients (P<0.001). Conclusions We found no difference in the adjusted risk of postoperative stroke or all-cause mortality in POAF versus non-POAF patients. Patients with POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting presented with a higher, although not significant, proportion of ischemic strokes of the cardioembolic type.

Dynamics of disease characteristics and clinical management of critically ill COVID-19 patients over the time course of the pandemic: an analysis of the prospective, international, multicentre RISC-19-ICU registry

Background

It remains elusive how the characteristics, the course of disease, the clinical management and the outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) worldwide have changed over the course of the pandemic.

Methods

Prospective, observational registry constituted by 90 ICUs across 22 countries worldwide including patients with a laboratory-confirmed, critical presentation of COVID-19 requiring advanced organ support. Hierarchical, generalized linear mixed-effect models accounting for hospital and country variability were employed to analyse the continuous evolution of the studied variables over the pandemic.

Results

Four thousand forty-one patients were included from March 2020 to September 2021. Over this period, the age of the admitted patients (62 [95% CI 60–63] years vs 64 [62–66] years, p < 0.001) and the severity of organ dysfunction at ICU admission decreased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment 8.2 [7.6–9.0] vs 5.8 [5.3–6.4], p < 0.001) and increased, while more female patients (26 [23–29]% vs 41 [35–48]%, p < 0.001) were admitted. The time span between symptom onset and hospitalization as well as ICU admission became longer later in the pandemic (6.7 [6.2–7.2| days vs 9.7 [8.9–10.5] days, p < 0.001). The PaO₂/FiO₂ at admission was lower (132 [123–141] mmHg vs 101 [91–113] mmHg, p < 0.001) but showed faster improvements over the initial 5 days of ICU stay in late 2021 compared to early 2020 (34 [20–48] mmHg vs 70 [41–100] mmHg, p = 0.05). The number of patients treated with steroids and tocilizumab increased, while the use of therapeutic anticoagulation presented an inverse U-shaped behaviour over the course of the pandemic. The proportion of patients treated with high-flow oxygen (5 [4–7]% vs 20 [14–29], p < 0.001) and non-invasive mechanical ventilation (14 [11–18]% vs 24 [17–33]%, p < 0.001) throughout the pandemic increased concomitant to a decrease in invasive mechanical ventilation (82 [76–86]% vs 74 [64–82]%, p < 0.001). The ICU mortality (23 [19–26]% vs 17 [12–25]%, p < 0.001) and length of stay (14 [13–16] days vs 11 [10–13] days, p < 0.001) decreased over 19 months of the pandemic.

Conclusion

Characteristics and disease course of critically ill COVID-19 patients have continuously evolved, concomitant to the clinical management, throughout the pandemic leading to a younger, less severely ill ICU population with distinctly different clinical, pulmonary and inflammatory presentations than at the onset of the pandemic.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-022-04065-2.

Tobacco use and risk of COVID-19 infection in the Finnish general population

Empirical evidence, primarily based on hospital-based or voluntary samples, suggests that current smokers have a lower risk of COVID-19 infection than never smokers. In this study, we used nationally representative data to examine the association between tobacco use and the risk of having a confirmed COVID-19 case. We explored several forms of tobacco use, contributing to separate the role of nicotine from smoking. We used data from 44,199 participants from three pooled national health surveys in Finland (FinSote 2018-2020). The primary outcome was a confirmed COVID-19 case. We examined current smoking, moist smokeless tobacco (snus), e-cigarettes with and without nicotine and nicotine replacement therapy products. Current daily smokers had a relative risk of 1.12 of a confirmed COVID-19 case (95% CI 0.65; 1.94) in fully adjusted models compared with never smokers. Current snus use was associated with a 68% higher risk of a confirmed COVID-19 case (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02; 2.75) than never users. We did not find conclusive evidence of associations between e-cigarettes with and without nicotine and nicotine replacement therapy products and the risk of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our findings suggest that nicotine might not have a protective role in the risk of COVID-19 as previously hypothesized.

Psychological Network of Stress, Coping and Social Support in an Aboriginal Population

Over the past decades, increasing research interest has been directed towards the psychosocial factors that impact Aboriginal health, including stress, coping and social support. However, there has been no study that examined whether the behaviours, cognitions and emotions related to stress, coping and social support constitute a psychological network in an Aboriginal population and that examined its properties. To address this gap, the current study employed a new methodology, network psychometrics, to evaluate stress, coping and social support in an Aboriginal Australian population. This study conducted a secondary analysis of the South Australian Aboriginal Birth Cohort (SAABC) study, a randomised controlled trial in South Australia, which included 367 pregnant Aboriginal women at study baseline. The Gaussian Graphical Model was estimated with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Node centrality was evaluated with eigencentrality, strength and bridge centrality. Network communities were investigated with the walktrap algorithm. The findings indicated that stress, coping and social support constituted a connected psychological network in an Aboriginal population. Furthermore, at the centre of the network were the troubles experienced by the Aboriginal pregnant women, bridging their perceptions of stress and coping and constituting a potential target for future interventions.

Assessment of Glucose Lowering Medications' Effectiveness for Cardiovascular Clinical Risk Management of Real-World Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation under Model Misspecification and Missing Outcomes

The results from many cardiovascular (CV) outcome trials suggest that glucose lowering medications (GLMs) are effective for the CV clinical risk management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. The aim of this study is to compare the effectiveness of two GLMs (SGLT2i and GLP-1RA) for the CV clinical risk management of T2D patients in a real-world setting, by simultaneously reducing glycated hemoglobin, body weight, and systolic blood pressure. Data from the real-world Italian multicenter retrospective study Dapagliflozin Real World evideNce in Type 2 Diabetes (DARWINT 2D) are analyzed. Different statistical approaches are compared to deal with the real-world-associated issues, which can arise from model misspecification, nonrandomized treatment assignment, and a high percentage of missingness in the outcome, and can potentially bias the marginal treatment effect (MTE) estimate and thus have an influence on the clinical risk management of patients. We compare the logistic regression (LR), propensity score (PS)-based methods, and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE), which allows for the use of machine learning (ML) models. Furthermore, a simulation study is performed, resembling the structure of the conditional dependencies among the main variables in DARWIN-T2D. LR and PS methods do not underline any difference in the effectiveness regarding the attainment of combined CV risk factor goals between the two treatments. TMLE suggests instead that dapagliflozin is significantly more effective than GLP-1RA for the CV risk management of T2D patients. The results from the simulation study suggest that TMLE has the lowest bias and SE for the estimate of the MTE.

Using primary care data to assess comparative effectiveness and safety of apixaban and rivaroxaban in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in the UK: an observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To compare real-world effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AFib) for prevention of stroke.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A comparative cohort study in UK general practice data from The Health Improvement Network database.

PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

Before matching, 5655 patients ≥18 years with nonvalvular AFib who initiated at least one DOAC between 1 July 2014 and 31 December 2020 were included. DOACs of interest included apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban and dabigatran, with the primary comparison between apixaban and rivaroxaban. Initiators of DOACs were defined as new users with no record of prescription for any DOAC during 12 months before index date.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic). Secondary outcomes included the occurrence of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), transient ischaemic attacks (TIA), major bleeding events and a composite angina/MI/stroke (AMS) endpoint.

RESULTS

Compared with rivaroxaban, patients initiating apixaban showed similar rates of stroke (HR: 0.93; 95% CI 0.64 to 1.34), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.87 to 1.22), MI (HR: 0.95; 95% CI 0.54 to 1.68), TIA (HR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.61 to 1.72) and AMS (HR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.72 to 1.27). Apixaban initiators showed lower rates of major bleeding events (HR: 0.60; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with nonvalvular AFib, apixaban was as effective as rivaroxaban in reducing rate of stroke and safer in terms of major bleeding episodes. This head-to-head comparison supports conclusions drawn from indirect comparisons of DOAC trials against warfarin and demonstrates the potential for real-world evidence to fill evidence gaps and reduce uncertainty in both health technology assessment decision-making and clinical guideline development.

The effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV-related outcomes in 42 countries from 1996 to 2019

Many countries have introduced cash transfer programmes as part of their poverty reduction and social protection strategies. These programmes have the potential to overcome drivers of HIV risk behaviours and usage of HIV services, but their overall effects on HIV-related outcomes remain unknown. Here we evaluate the effects of cash transfer programmes covering >5% of the impoverished population on country- and individual-level HIV-related outcomes in 42 countries with generalized epidemics. Cash transfer programmes were associated with a lower probability of sexually transmitted infections among females (odds ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50-0.91; P = 0.01), a higher probability of recent HIV testing among females (odds ratio, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.15-5.88; P = 0.02) and among males (odds ratio, 3.19; 95% CI, 2.45-4.15; P < 0.001), a reduction in new HIV infections (incidence rate ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99; P = 0.03) and delayed improvements in antiretroviral coverage (3%; 95% CI, 0.3-5.7 at year 2; P = 0.03) and AIDS-related deaths (incidence rate ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99 at year 2; P = 0.03). Anti-poverty programmes can play a greater role in achieving global targets for HIV prevention and treatment.

Subdural electrodes versus stereoelectroencephalography for pediatric epileptogenic zone localization: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to compare the relative safety and effectiveness of invasive monitoring with subdural electrodes (SDEs) and stereoelectroencephalography (sEEG) in pediatric patients with drug-resistant epilepsy.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed in 176 patients who underwent invasive monitoring evaluations at UPMC Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh between January 2000 and September 2021. To examine differences between SDE and sEEG groups, independent-samples t-tests for continuous variables and Pearson chi-square tests for categorical variables were performed. A p value < 0.1 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

There were 134 patients (76%) in the SDE group and 42 (24%) in the sEEG group. There was a difference in the proportion with complications (17.9% in the SDE group vs 7.1% in the sEEG group, p = 0.09) and resection (75.4% SDE vs 21.4% sEEG, p < 0.01) between SDE and sEEG patients. However, there was no observable difference in the rates of postresection seizure freedom at 1-year clinical follow-up (60.2% SDE vs 75.0% sEEG, p = 0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reveal a difference in rates of surgical complications and resection between SDEs and sEEG. Larger prospective, multi-institutional pediatric comparative effectiveness studies may further explore these associations.

Intracorporeal reinforcement with barbed suture is associated with low anastomotic leakage rates after laparoscopic low anterior resection for rectal cancer: a retrospective study

Background

Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of most severe postoperative complications following low anterior resection (LAR) for rectal cancer, and has an adverse impact on postoperative recovery. The occurence of AL is associated with several factors, while few studies explored the role of intracorporeal barbed suture reinforcement in it.

Methods

Consecutive cases underwent laparoscopic LAR for rectal cancer from Mar. 2018 to Feb. 2021 in our center were retrospectively collected. Cases were classified into the intracorporeal barbed suture reinforcement group and the control group according to whether performing intracorporeal reinforcement with barbed suture, and AL incidences were compared between two groups. Propensity score matching (PSM) was then performed based on identified risk factors to reduce biases from covariates between two groups. AL incidences in the matched cohort were compared.

Results

A total of 292 cases entered into the study, and AL incidences were significantly lower in the intracorporeal barbed suture reinforcement group compared with the control group (10.00% vs 2.82%, P = 0.024). Sex, BMI, preoperative adjuvant chemoradiotherapy and anastomotic level were chose for PSM analyses based on previous studies. In the matched cohort, the AL incidences were still significantly lower in the intracorporeal barbed suture reinforcement group (10.57% vs 2.44%, SD = 0.334).

Conclusions

Intracorporeal barbed suture reinforcement is associated with low AL incidences after laparoscopic LAR for rectal cancer, which is a potential procedure for reducing AL and worthy of application clinically.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12893-022-01782-x.

Molecular mediators of the association between child obesity and mental health

Biological mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and depression remain unclear. We investigated the role of metabolites and DNA methylation as mediators of the relationship between childhood obesity and subsequent poor mental health in the English Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Obesity was defined according to United Kingdom Growth charts at age 7 years and mental health through the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ) completed at age 11 years. Metabolites and DNA methylation were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and Illumina array in blood at the age of 7 years. The associations between obesity and SMFQ score, as continuous count data or using cut-offs to define depressive symptoms (SMFQ >7) or depression (SMFQ >11), were tested using adjusted Poisson and logistic regression. Candidate metabolite mediators were identified through metabolome-wide association scans for obesity and SMFQ score, correcting for false-discovery rate. Candidate DNA methylation mediators were identified through testing the association of putative BMI-associated CpG sites with SMFQ scores, correcting for look-up false-discovery rate. Mediation by candidate molecular markers was tested. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were additionally applied to test causal associations of metabolites with depression in independent adult samples. 4,018 and 768 children were included for metabolomics and epigenetics analyses, respectively. Obesity at 7 years was associated with a 14% increase in SMFQ score (95% CI: 1.04, 1.25) and greater odds of depression (OR: 1.46 (95% CI: 0.78, 2.38) at 11 years. Natural indirect effects (mediating pathways) between obesity and depression for tyrosine, leucine and conjugated linoleic acid were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.13, proportion mediated (PM): 15%), 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.10, PM: 9.6%) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.12, PM: 13.9%) respectively. In MR analysis, one unit increase in tyrosine was associated with 0.13 higher log odds of depression (p = 0.1). Methylation at cg17128312, located in the FBXW9 gene, had a natural indirect effect of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01,1.13, PM: 27%) as a mediator of obesity and SMFQ score. Potential biologically plausible mechanisms involving these identified molecular features include neurotransmitter regulation, inflammation, and gut microbiome modulation. These results require replication in further observational and mechanistic studies.

Challenges and recommendations for high quality research using electronic health records

Harnessing Real World Data is vital to improve health care in the 21st Century. Data from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are a rich source of patient centred data, including information on the patient's clinical condition, laboratory results, diagnoses and treatments. They thus reflect the true state of health systems. However, access and utilisation of EHR data for research presents specific challenges. We assert that using data from EHRs effectively is dependent on synergy between researchers, clinicians and health informaticians, and only this will allow state of the art methods to be used to answer urgent and vital questions for patient care. We propose that there needs to be a paradigm shift in the way this research is conducted - appreciating that the research process is iterative rather than linear. We also make specific recommendations for organisations, based on our experience of developing and using EHR data in trusted research environments.

Using a target trial approach to evaluate the role of hyperketonemia in sole ulcer and white line hoof lesion development

This observational cohort study enrolled cows from 7 freestall dairy herds in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The objective was to estimate the causal role of hyperketonemia on new sole ulcer and white line hoof lesions (SUWL). Multiparous cows were enrolled at the time of their precalving hoof trim, at the end of their previous lactation. Enrolled cows were hoof trimmed twice: precalving between 90 to 21 d before calving (n = 2,037), and postcalving between 21 to 150 d after calving (n = 1,408). We trained 7 commercial hoof trimmers, employed by the farms, in lesion identification to standardize lesion recording. Hoof trimmers conducted therapeutic trimming as well as diagnosing and treating lesions. After parturition, cows between 3 and 16 d in milk were tested once weekly for hyperketonemia using a hand-held ketone meter. Farm staff and research personnel conducted the β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) testing. Cows were classified as hyperketonemic (HYK+) if they had a blood BHB ≥1.2 mmol/L or hyperketonemia-negative (HYK-) if blood BHB <1.2 mmol/L. At the precalving hoof trim, 15.6% of cows trimmed had a lesion and 1.9% of cows had a SUWL; thus, cows with a SUWL were excluded from further analysis (n = 38). At the postcalving hoof trim, 25.8% of cows trimmed had a hoof lesion, and 3.6% of cows had a SUWL. The most prevalent lesions at the pre- and postcalving hoof trims were digital dermatitis and corkscrew lesions. The incidence of hyperketonemia among cows was 21.1% (421/1,999) and the incidence on farms ranged from 5.7 to 29.1%. After excluding cows due to being hoof trimmed outside our designated window, the multilevel logistic regression model for the odds of SUWL at the postcalving hoof trim included 1,209 cows (HYK+ = 257/1,209; SUWL = 42/1,209). The odds of having SUWL in HYK+ was 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.29, 1.49) times the odds of that for HYK- cows. For cows diagnosed with a lesion (digital dermatitis, corkscrew, toe, foot rot, or other lesion) at their precalving hoof trim (n = 199), the odds of having SUWL for HYK+ cows were 0.43 (95% confidence interval: 0.05, 3.92) times the odds of that for HYK- cows. The wide range of compatible causal estimates suggest that hyperketonemia likely has a limited role in the development of SUWL in cows with or without a hoof lesion precalving. Future research should investigate other transition period factors such as inflammation or structural changes to the foot that may have a causative role in the development of SUWL.

Cord blood metabolites and rapid postnatal growth as multiple mediators in the prenatal propensity to childhood overweight

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms underlying childhood overweight and obesity are poorly known. Here, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of different prenatal exposures on offspring rapid postnatal growth and overweight in childhood, mediated through cord blood metabolites. Additionally, rapid postnatal growth was considered a potential mediator on childhood overweight, alone and sequentially to each metabolite.

METHODS

Within four European birth-cohorts (N = 375 mother-child dyads), information on seven prenatal exposures (maternal education, pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain and tobacco smoke during pregnancy, age at delivery, parity, and child gestational age), selected as obesogenic according to a-priori knowledge, was collected. Cord blood levels of 31 metabolites, associated with rapid postnatal growth and/or childhood overweight in a previous study, were measured via liquid-chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight-mass-spectrometry. Rapid growth at 12 months and childhood overweight (including obesity) between four and eight years were defined with reference to WHO growth charts. Single mediation analysis was performed using the imputation approach and multiple mediation analysis using the extended-imputation approach.

RESULTS

Single mediation suggested that the effect of maternal education, pregnancy weight gain, parity, and gestational age on rapid postnatal growth but not on childhood overweight was partly mediated by seven metabolites, including cholestenone, decenoylcarnitine(C10:1), phosphatidylcholine(C34:3), progesterone and three unidentified metabolites; and the effect of gestational age on childhood overweight was mainly mediated by rapid postnatal growth. Multiple mediation suggested that the effect of gestational age on childhood overweight was mainly mediated by rapid postnatal growth and that the mediating role of the metabolites was marginal.

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide evidence of the involvement of in utero metabolism in the propensity to rapid postnatal growth and of rapid postnatal growth in the propensity to childhood overweight. We did not find evidence supporting a mediating role of the studied metabolites alone between the studied prenatal exposures and the propensity to childhood overweight.

Paediatric and adult patients from New Caledonia Island admitted to the ICU for community-acquired Panton-Valentine leucocidin-producing Staphylococcus aureus infections

Severe infections involving Panton-Valentine leukocidin-producing Staphylococcus aureus (PVL + Sa) are increasing. This monocentre, retrospective descriptive cohort assessed clinical characteristics and outcome of paediatric and adult patients admitted for community-acquired PVL + Sa infections to the unique intensive care unit (ICU) on New Caledonia Island. Overall, 72 patients (including 23 children) admitted for acute respiratory failure (42%), sepsis/septic shock (21%), and/or postoperative care (32%) were analysed. Most patients had pulmonary (64%), skin/soft tissue (SSTI) (54%) and/or osteoarticular (38%) infections. Multifocal infections (≥ 2 sites) and bacteraemia were reported in 65% and 76% of the patients, respectively. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus isolates were reported in 61% of adult cases versus 30% in children (p < 0.05). Mechanical ventilation, vasoactive support and source control were administered in 53%, 43% and 58% of the patients, respectively. All paediatric patients received adequate empirical antibiotic therapy versus 30/49 adults (p < 0.001). Adequate documented therapy was obtained ≤ 72 h in 70/72 (97%) patients. Death was only reported in adults (n = 10 (14%)), mainly during pulmonary infection (22%), SSTIs (21%) and bacteraemia (24%)). In summary, in ICU patients from New Caledonia Island the clinical presentation of severe community-acquired PVL + Sa infections seems different from Western European observations with high rates of multifocal infections and methicillin-resistant strains.

Age and sex-specific risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following Covid-19 messenger RNA vaccines

Cases of myocarditis and pericarditis have been reported following the receipt of Covid-19 mRNA vaccines. As vaccination campaigns are still to be extended, we aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the association, by vaccine and across sex and age groups. Using nationwide hospital discharge and vaccine data, we analysed all 1612 cases of myocarditis and 1613 cases of pericarditis that occurred in France in the period from May 12, 2021 to October 31, 2021. We perform matched case-control studies and find increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis during the first week following vaccination, and particularly after the second dose, with adjusted odds ratios of myocarditis of 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7 to 9.9) for the BNT162b2 and 30 (95% CI, 21 to 43) for the mRNA-1273 vaccine. The largest associations are observed for myocarditis following mRNA-1273 vaccination in persons aged 18 to 24 years. Estimates of excess cases attributable to vaccination also reveal a substantial burden of both myocarditis and pericarditis across other age groups and in both males and females.