Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Spatial consistency of co-exposure to air and surface water pollution and cancer in China

Humans can be exposed to multiple pollutants in the air and surface water. These environments are non-static, trans-boundary and correlated, creating a complex network, and significant challenges for research on environmental hazards, especially in real-world cancer research. This article reports on a large study (377 million people in 30 provinces of China) that evaluated the combined impact of air and surface water pollution on cancer. We formulate a spatial evaluation system and a common grading scale for co-pollution measurement, and validate assumptions that air and surface water environments are spatially connected and that cancers of different types tend to cluster in areas where these environments are poorer. We observe "dose-response" relationships in both the number of affected cancer types and the cancer incidence with an increase in degree of co-pollution. We estimate that 62,847 (7.4%) new cases of cancer registered in China in 2016 were attributable to air and surface water pollution, and the majority (69.7%) of these excess cases occurred in areas with the highest level of co-pollution. The findings clearly show that the environment cannot be considered as a set of separate entities. They also support the development of policies for cooperative environmental governance and disease prevention.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV-negative tuberculosis, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major infectious disease with significant public health implications. Its widespread transmission, prolonged treatment duration, notable side effects, and high mortality rate pose severe challenges. This study examines the epidemiological characteristics of TB globally and across major regions, providing a scientific basis for enhancing TB prevention and control measures worldwide.

METHODS

The ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. It assessed new incidence cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALY rates for drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project ASIR and ASMR.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global ASIR for all HIV-negative TB was 103.00 per 100,000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 92.21, 114.91 per 100,000 population], declining by 0.40% (95% UI: - 0.43, - 0.38%) compared to 1990. The global ASMR was 13.96 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.61, 15.72 per 100,000 population), with a decline of 0.44% (95% UI: - 0.61, - 0.23%) since 1990. The global age-standardized DALY rate for HIV-negative TB was 580.26 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 522.37, 649.82 per 100,000 population), showing a decrease of 0.65% (95% UI: - 0.69, - 0.57 per 100,000 population) from 1990. The global ASIR of MDR-TB has not decreased since 2015, instead, it has shown a slow upward trend in recent years. The ASIR of XDR-TB has exhibited significant increase in the past 30 years. The projections indicate MDR-TB and XDR-TB are expected to see significant increases in both ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2035, highlighting the growing challenge of drug-resistant TB.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that the ASIR of MDR-TB and XDR-TB has shown an upward trend in recent years. To reduce the TB burden, it is essential to enhance health infrastructure and increase funding in low-SDI regions. Developing highly efficient, accurate, and convenient diagnostic reagents, along with more effective therapeutic drugs, and improving public health education and community engagement, are crucial for curbing TB transmission.

The Global Incident Gastrointestinal Cancers Attributable to Suboptimal Diets From 1990 to 2018

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The contribution of suboptimal diets to gastrointestinal (GI) cancer incidence globally remains unquantified, and we aimed to evaluate it.

METHODS

Comprehensive meta-analyses and rigorous evidence-grading assessment identified the associations between suboptimal diets and 6 GI cancers and their subtypes. A comparative risk assessment model was used to estimate the proportional attributable burden and attributable rate of GI cancers to suboptimal diets by using the corroborative association estimates. In addition, correlation assessments with the Sociodemographic Index were carried out.

RESULTS

In 2018, 21.5% (95% uncertainty interval, 19.1%-24.5%) of incident GI cancer cases globally were attributable to suboptimal diets, maintaining a relatively stable proportion since 1990 (22.4%; 19.7%-25.6%), whereas the absolute diet-attributable cases doubled from 580,862 (510,658-664,076) in 1990 to 1,039,877 (923,482-1,187,244) in 2018. Excessive processed meat consumption (5.9%; 4.2%-7.9%), insufficient fruit intake (4.8%; 3.8%-5.9%), and insufficient whole grain intake (3.6%; 2.8%-5.1%) were the most significant dietary risk factors in 2018, a shift from 1990 when the third major concern was insufficient nonstarchy vegetable intake. In addition, Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia experienced the highest attributable burden across regions in both 1990 (31.6%; 27.0%-37.4%) and 2018 (31.6%; 27.3%-36.5%), and a positive correlation (P < .001) between the Sociodemographic Index and the attributable GI cancer incidence was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the proportional attributable GI incidence remains relatively stable, the doubling of absolute cases from 1990 to 2018, along with the discrepancies among urbanicity and countries/regions, informs dietary priorities and more targeted preventive measures.

Trends of gastric cancer burdens attributable to risk factors in China from 2000 to 2050

Background

The incidence of gastric cancer (GC) decreased in past decades, which was thought largely attributable to risk factors control, yet China still accounts for 44% of global GC burdens. We aimed to estimate changing trajectories of proportions of GC burdens attributable to modifiable risk factors from 2000 to 2050 in China, to inform future targeted preventive strategies.

Methods

The incidence and new cases of GC were predicted to 2050 using Bayesian age-period-cohort model based on incidence data by anatomical subsites drawn from 682 cancer registries from National Central Cancer Registry. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on prevalence of risk factors and relative risks with GC. Temporal trends of PAFs were described by sex and categories of risk factors using joinpoint analysis.

Findings

We observed declining trends of PAFs of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, smoking, pickled vegetable and alcohol consumption, but increasing trends of PAFs of unhealthy body mass index and diabetes for GC in China. The combined PAFs of these risk factors were estimated to decrease by 10.57% from 2000 to 2050 for GC. We estimated there will be 279,707 GC (122,796 cardia gastric cancer [CGC] and 156,911 non-cardia gastric cancer [NCGC]) cases in 2050. Out of these cases, 70.18% of GC cases could be attributable to modifiable risk factors, while H. pylori infection was predicted to be responsible for 40.7% of CGC and 62.1% of NCGC cases in 2050.

Interpretation

More than half of GC remained attributable to modifiable risk factors in China. Continued effective strategies on risk factors control are needed to reduce the burden of this highly life-threatening cancer in future.

Funding

Beijing Nova Program (No. Z201100006820069), CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS, grant No. 2021-I2M-1-023), CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS, grant No. 2021-I2M-1-010), Talent Incentive Program of Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (Hope Star).

The methodology of quantitative risk assessment studies

Once an external factor has been deemed likely to influence human health and a dose response function is available, an assessment of its health impact or that of policies aimed at influencing this and possibly other factors in a specific population can be obtained through a quantitative risk assessment, or health impact assessment (HIA) study. The health impact is usually expressed as a number of disease cases or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to or expected from the exposure or policy. We review the methodology of quantitative risk assessment studies based on human data. The main steps of such studies include definition of counterfactual scenarios related to the exposure or policy, exposure(s) assessment, quantification of risks (usually relying on literature-based dose response functions), possibly economic assessment, followed by uncertainty analyses. We discuss issues and make recommendations relative to the accuracy and geographic scale at which factors are assessed, which can strongly influence the study results. If several factors are considered simultaneously, then correlation, mutual influences and possibly synergy between them should be taken into account. Gaps or issues in the methodology of quantitative risk assessment studies include 1) proposing a formal approach to the quantitative handling of the level of evidence regarding each exposure-health pair (essential to consider emerging factors); 2) contrasting risk assessment based on human dose-response functions with that relying on toxicological data; 3) clarification of terminology of health impact assessment and human-based risk assessment studies, which are actually very similar, and 4) other technical issues related to the simultaneous consideration of several factors, in particular when they are causally linked.

The current and future costs of colorectal cancer attributable to red and processed meat consumption in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Compelling evidence supports the association between red and processed meat consumption and increased risk of colorectal cancer. Herein, we estimated the current (2018) and future (2030) federal direct healthcare costs of colorectal cancer in the Brazilian Unified Health System attributable to red and processed meat consumption. Considering reduced red and processed meat consumption, we also projected attributable costs of colorectal cancer in 2040.

METHODS

We retrieved information on red and processed meat consumption from two nationally representative dietary surveys, the Household Budget Survey 2008-2009 and 2017-2018; relative risks for colorectal cancer from a meta-analysis; direct healthcare costs of inpatient and outpatient procedures in adults ≥ 30 years with colorectal cancer (C18-C20) from 2008-2019 by sex.

RESULTS

Attributable costs of colorectal cancer were calculated via comparative risk assessment, assuming a 10-year lag. In 2018, US$ 20.6 million (8.4%) of direct healthcare costs of colorectal cancer were attributable to red and processed meat consumption. In 2030, attributable costs will increase to US$ 86.6 million (19.3%). Counterfactual scenarios of reducing red and processed meat consumption in 2030 suggested that US$ 2.2 to 11.9 million and US$ 13 to 74 million could be saved in 2040, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Red and processed meat consumption has an escalating economic impact on the Brazilian Unified Health System. Our findings support interventions and policies focused on primary prevention and cancer.

Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity, Its Complications, and Progression in a 10-Year Follow-Up in the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS)

INTRODUCTION

Overweight and obesity lead to numerous complications and their treatment. The associated costs represent a health and sociopolitical burden. Therefore, the development of overweight and obesity is of great importance for health policy.

METHODS

The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS), a population-based observational study of individuals aged 35-74 years in the city of Mainz and the district of Mainz-Bingen, examined current data on the prevalence and development of overweight and obesity and their association with concomitant diseases and medication use.

RESULTS

Among men, 48.1% were overweight and 26.3% had obesity. Among women, these proportions were 32.1% and 24.1%, respectively. Elevated body mass index (BMI) was associated with numerous complications, particularly insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes, arterial hypertension, elevated triglycerides and low HDL cholesterol, and cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, medications to treat these conditions were used significantly more often in individuals with elevated BMI. During the 10-year observation period, mean weight increased in the population. Both men and women had a moderate but significant increase in BMI compared to men and women of the same age at baseline. Individual weight changes over the 10-year observation period, on the other hand, were age-dependent. In the two younger age decades, weight gain was observed, while in the oldest age decade, mean body weight decreased.

CONCLUSION

These current data confirm that overweight and obesity are associated with relevant complications and that these complications lead to significant use of appropriate medications. The study also suggests that there is a significant trend toward increased prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30) over the 10-year period.

Environmental and life-style risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The African Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) corridor, which spans from Ethiopia down to South Africa, is an esophageal cancer hotspot. Disproportionately high incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer have been reported from this region. The aim of this study was to systematically assess the evidence on environmental and life-style risk factors associated with ESCC in African populations.

METHODS

We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and carried out a comprehensive search of all African published studies up to March 2023 using PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and African Index Medicus databases.

RESULTS

We identified 45 studies with measures of association [odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI)], which reported on several environmental and lifestyle risk factors for ESCC in Africa. We performed a meta-analysis on 38 studies investigating tobacco, alcohol use, combined tobacco and alcohol use, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure, hot food and beverages consumption (which served as a proxy for esophageal injury through exposure to high temperature), and poor oral health. We found significant associations between all the risk factors and ESCC development. Analysis of fruit and vegetable consumption showed a protective effect. Using population attributable fraction (PAF) analysis, we calculated the proportion of ESCC attributable to tobacco (18%), alcohol use (12%), combined tobacco and alcohol use (18%), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure (12%), hot food and beverages intake (16%), poor oral health (37%), and fruit and vegetable consumption (-12%).

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption were the most studied risk factors overall. Areas where there is an emerging body of evidence include hot food and beverages and oral health. Concurrently, new avenues of research are also emerging in PAH exposure, and diet as risk factors. Our results point to a multifactorial etiology of ESCC in African populations with further evidence on prevention potential.

Identification of Risk Groups for and Factors Affecting Metabolic Syndrome in South Korean Single-Person Households Using Latent Class Analysis and Machine Learning Techniques: Secondary Analysis Study

BACKGROUND

The rapid increase of single-person households in South Korea is leading to an increase in the incidence of metabolic syndrome, which causes cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, due to lifestyle changes. It is necessary to analyze the complex effects of metabolic syndrome risk factors in South Korean single-person households, which differ from one household to another, considering the diversity of single-person households.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify the factors affecting metabolic syndrome in single-person households using machine learning techniques and categorically characterize the risk factors through latent class analysis (LCA).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 10-year secondary data obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2018). We selected 1371 participants belonging to single-person households. Data were analyzed using SPSS (version 25.0; IBM Corp), Mplus (version 8.0; Muthen & Muthen), and Python (version 3.0; Plone & Python). We applied 4 machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and extreme gradient boost) to identify important factors and then applied LCA to categorize the risk groups of metabolic syndromes in single-person households.

RESULTS

Through LCA, participants were classified into 4 groups (group 1: intense physical activity in early adulthood, group 2: hypertension among middle-aged female respondents, group 3: smoking and drinking among middle-aged male respondents, and group 4: obesity and abdominal obesity among middle-aged respondents). In addition, age, BMI, obesity, subjective body shape recognition, alcohol consumption, smoking, binge drinking frequency, and job type were investigated as common factors that affect metabolic syndrome in single-person households through machine learning techniques. Group 4 was the most susceptible and at-risk group for metabolic syndrome (odds ratio 17.67, 95% CI 14.5-25.3; P<.001), and obesity and abdominal obesity were the most influential risk factors for metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified risk groups and factors affecting metabolic syndrome in single-person households through machine learning techniques and LCA. Through these findings, customized interventions for each generational risk factor for metabolic syndrome can be implemented, leading to the prevention of metabolic syndrome, which causes cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. In conclusion, this study contributes to the prevention of metabolic syndrome in single-person households by providing new insights and priority groups for the development of customized interventions using classification.

Cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality associated with individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have investigated the association between cardiometabolic risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but evidence of the attributable burden of individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors for CVD and mortality is limited. We aimed to investigate and quantify the associations and population attributable fraction (PAF) of cardiometabolic risk factors on CVD and all-cause mortality, and calculate the loss of CVD-free years and years of life lost in relation to the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors.

METHODS

Twenty-two thousand five hundred ninety-six participants aged ≥ 35 without CVD at baseline were included between October 2012 and December 2015. The outcomes were the composite of fatal and nonfatal CVD events and all-cause mortality, which were followed up in 2018 and 2019 and ascertained by hospital records and death certificates. Cox regression was applied to evaluate the association of individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors (including hypertension, diabetes and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)) with CVD risk and all-cause mortality. We also described the PAF for CVD and reductions in CVD-free years and life expectancy associated with different combination of cardiometabolic conditions.

RESULTS

During the 4.92 years of follow-up, we detected 991 CVD events and 1126 deaths. Hazard ratio were 1.59 (95% confidential interval (CI) 1.37-1.85), 1.82 (95%CI 1.49-2.24) and 2.97 (95%CI 1.85-4.75) for CVD and 1.38 (95%CI 1.20-1.58), 1.66 (95%CI 1.37-2.02) and 2.97 (95%CI 1.88-4.69) for all-cause mortality, respectively, in participants with one, two or three cardiometabolic risk factors compared with participants without diabetes, hypertension, and high LDL-C. 21.48% of CVD and 15.38% of all-cause mortality were attributable to the combined effect of diabetes and hypertension. Participants aged between 40 and 60 years old, with three cardiometabolic disorders, had approximately 4.3-year reductions life expectancy compared with participants without any abnormalities of cardiometabolic disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiometabolic risk factors were associated with a multiplicative risk of CVD incidence and all-cause mortality, highlighting the importance of comprehensive management for hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia in the prevention of CVD.

Influence of analytic methods, data sources, and repeated measurements on the population attributable fraction of lifestyle risk factors

Population attributable risk (PAR%) reflects the preventable fraction of disease. However, PAR% estimates of cancer have shown large variation across populations, methods, data sources, and timing of measurements. Three statistical methods to estimate PAR% were identified from a systematic literature review: the Levin's formula, the comparative incidence rate method, and the comparative risk assessment method. We compared the variations in PAR% of postmenopausal breast cancer in the Nurses' Health Study to evaluate the influence by method choice, source of prevalence data, use of single vs repeated exposure measurements, and potential joint effects of obesity, alcohol, physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake. Across models of the three methods, the estimated PAR% using repeated measurements were higher than that using baseline measurement; overall PAR% for the baseline, simple update, and cumulative average models were 13.8%, 21.1%, 18.6% by Levin's formula; 13.7%, 28.0%, 31.2% by comparative risk assessment; and 17.4%, 25.2%, 29.3% by comparative incidence rate method. The estimated PAR% of the combination of multiple risk factors was higher than the product of the individual PAR%: 18.9% when assuming independence and 31.2% when considering the risk factors jointly. The three methods provided similar PAR% based on the same data source, timing of measurements, and target populations. However, sizable increases in the PAR% were observed for repeated measures over a single measure and for calculations based on achieving all recommendations jointly rather than individually.

Time-Varying Food Retail and Incident Disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Natural experiments can strengthen evidence linking neighborhood food retail presence to dietary intake patterns and cardiometabolic health outcomes, yet sample size and follow-up duration are typically not extensive. To complement natural experiment evidence, longitudinal data were used to estimate the impacts of neighborhood food retail presence on incident disease.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Health Study recruited adults aged 65+ years in 1989-1993. Analyses conducted in 2021-2022 included those in good baseline health, with addresses updated annually through the year of death (restricted to 91% who died during >2 decades of cohort follow-up). Baseline and annually updated presence of 2 combined food retail categories (supermarkets/produce markets and convenience/snack focused) was characterized using establishment-level data for 1-km and 5-km Euclidean buffers. Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations with time to each incident outcome (cardiovascular disease, diabetes), adjusting for individual and area-based confounders.

RESULTS

Among 2,939 participants, 36% with baseline supermarket/produce market presence within 1 km had excess incident cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio=1.12; 95% CI=1.01, 1.24); the association was attenuated and no longer statistically significant after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted associations were robustly null for time-varying supermarket/produce market or convenience/fast food retail presence across analyses with outcomes of cardiovascular disease or diabetes incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Food environment changes continue to be studied to provide an evidence base for policy decisions, and null findings in this longitudinal analysis add literature that casts doubt on the sufficiency of strategies targeting food retail presence alone of an elderly cohort for curtailing incident events of clinical importance.

Transition of cooking fuel types and mortality risk in China, 1991-2015

BACKGROUND

The decision for household cooking fuel choice is a complex and multi-dimensional process. This study aims to: 1) examine the trend of cooking fuel types during past decades; and 2) examine the association between switching from polluting to clean fuels for cooking and mortality risk.

METHODS

This analysis included data on 39,359 participants from 9 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) (1991-2015). Participants with consistent polluting fuel use and with the polluting-to-clean transition were identified. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine the trend of clean fuel use from 1991 to 2015. Propensity score matching was used to address the data imbalance and confounding factors and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association.

RESULTS

We found an increasing trend of clean fuel use after adjusting for potential confounders in the full sample (OR = 56.89, 95 % CI: 48.17, 67.19), which appeared to be more pronounced for those in rural areas and with low socioeconomic status. Switching from polluting to clean fuels was associated with a 75 % lower risk of mortality (HR = 0.25, 95 % CI: 0.11, 0.54). These associations became more pronounced during the lag period from 9 to 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The transition from polluting to clean cooking fuels reduced excess deaths in China, particularly over a long period. Our findings support the increasing implementation of clean fuels and call for more efforts to improve its universal service, especially in rural and low socioeconomic status areas, to minimize health inequality.

Quantifying COVID-19's silver lining: Avoided deaths from air quality improvements in Bogotá

In cities around the world, COVID-19 lockdowns have significantly improved outdoor air quality. Even if only temporary, these improvements could have longer-lasting effects by making chronic air pollution more salient and boosting political pressure for change. To that end, it is important to develop objective estimates of both the air quality improvements associated with lockdowns and the benefits they generate. We use panel data econometric models to estimate the effect of Bogotá's 16-month lockdown on PM_2.5 and NO₂ pollution, epidemiological models to simulate the effect of reductions in these pollutants on long- and short-term mortality, and benefit transfer methods to value the avoided mortality. We find that on average, Bogotá's lockdown cut PM_2.5 pollution by 15% and NO₂ pollution by 21%. However, the magnitude of these effects varied considerably over time and across the city's neighborhoods. Equivalent permanent reductions in these pollutants would reduce long-term premature deaths from air pollution by 23% each year, a benefit valued at $1 billion annually. Finally, we estimate that if they occurred ceteris paribus, the temporary reductions in pollutant concentrations in 2020-2021 due to Bogotá's lockdown would have cut short-term deaths from air pollution by 19%, a benefit valued at $244 million.

Social determinants of diabesity and its association with multimorbidity among older adults in India: a population-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

India, a major contributor to the global diabetes burden, is witnessing a simultaneous epidemic of obesity leading to rise in diabesity. Diabesity, the coexistence of diabetes and obesity in an individual, has emerged as a risk factor for other morbidities and hence, multimorbidity. Although diabesity has long been recognised, still, there is a poor understanding of its social determinants in India, necessary for its control. We aimed to estimate and compare the prevalence and identify social determinants of obesity, diabetes and diabesity; explore their association with other selected non-communicable diseases (NCDs) multimorbidity; and assess its outcomes among adults aged ≥45 years.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We undertook an observational analyses employing nationally representative data from Longitudinal Ageing Study in India, 2017-2018.

PARTICIPANTS

This study was conducted among n=59 073 respondents.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Descriptive analysis was conducted among n=59 073 respondents to determine prevalence of diabetes, obesity and diabesity. The social determinants were assessed using multinomial regression, reported as adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR). A multiple correspondence analysis generated life satisfaction.

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and diabesity was 21.2%, 6%, and 5.8%, respectively. We identified women (RRR: 2.16 (1.72 to 2.71)), urban residents (RRR: 3.73 (3.07 to 4.54)) and affluent groups (RRR: 3.60 (2.46 to 4.58)) had a higher likelihood of having diabesity. The association with various NCDs showed multimorbidity to be akin to the diabesity group. We observed inferior life satisfaction and significantly higher healthcare utilisation among participants with diabesity as compared with other two groups.

CONCLUSION

Increased obesity prevalence has led to the rise in diabesity in India. Additionally, the level of multimorbidity in this group cannot be overlooked. Rather than focusing on individual conditions, an in toto approach to multimorbidity is warranted.

Evaluation of cardiovascular diseases risk calculators for CVDs prevention and management: scoping review

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. This review aimed to summarise evidence on the key features, usability and benefits of CVD risk calculators using digital platforms for CVDs prevention and management in populations.

METHODS

We used search engines and thematic analyses to conduct a scoping review. As the reporting guideline for this review, we used Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR).

RESULTS

A total of 17 studies meeting eligibility criteria were included in the analysis, from which about 70% of the studies have prognostic level I (n = 8) and level II (n = 4) evidence. The review found that various guidelines are recommending different algorithms for CVD risk prediction. The QRISK® was the most accurate CVD risk calculator for several study populations, whereas World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk scores were the least accurate. The key features of CVD risk calculators are variables, predictive accuracy, discrimination index, applicability, understandability, and cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

For the selected risk prediction tool, development and validation research must be done, which considers a mix of stroke-specific risk and CVD risk to establish its usability in the local community and advantages to the particular health-care environment. To get healthcare professionals more involved in preventing and treating CVDs, each healthcare setting should use an online CVD risk assessment tool that is more useful, accurate, and easy to use, based on the population and health system.

Causes of Cancer in the World: Comparative Risk Assessment of Nine Behavioral and Environmental Risk Factors

Some malignancies have very few technologies available for screening, and advancements in cancer therapy have not been as effective in lowering death as those for other chronic diseases. The major method for decreasing cancer incidence is primary avoidance through dietary and environmental changes. The potentially reversible risk factors were projected to be responsible for cancer-related mortality worldwide. Of these fatalities, many of the cases occurred in high-income nations, whereas very few cases did so in low- and middle-income countries. Risk factors in Europe and Central Asia were responsible for the majority of cancer mortality in low- and middle-income regions. Smoking, drinking alcohol, and eating few fruits and vegetables were some of the primary factors that contributed to cancer mortality both globally and in low- and middle-income countries. In high-income countries, alcohol consumption, smoking, and obesity were the main cancer-causing factors. The sexual transmission of the human papillomavirus is one of the leading risk factors for cervical cancer in women in low- and middle-income countries.

Burden of cancer attributable to modifiable factors in Japan in 2015

The This study estimated the cancer burden attributable to modifiable factors in Japan in 2015 using the best available epidemiological evidence and a standard methodology. We selected the following factors for inclusion in the estimates, namely tobacco smoking (active smoking and secondhand smoking), alcohol drinking, excess bodyweight, physical inactivity, infectious agents (Helicobacter pylori, hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus, human papilloma virus, Epstein-Barr virus, and human T-cell leukemia virus type 1), dietary intake (highly salted food, fruit, vegetables, dietary fiber, red meat, processed meat), exogenous hormone use, never breastfeeding and air pollution, given that these were considered modifiable, in theory at least. We first estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of each cancer attributable to these factors using representative relative risks of Japanese and the prevalence of exposures in Japanese around 2005, in consideration of the 10-year interval between exposure and cancer outcomes. Using nationwide cancer incidence and mortality statistics, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2015. We finally obtained the PAF for site-specific and total cancers attributable to all modifiable risk factors using this formula, with statistical consideration of the effect of overlap between risk factors. The results showed that 35.9% of all cancer incidence (43.4% in men and 25.3% in women) and 41.0% of all cancer mortality (49.7% in men and 26.8% in women) would be considered preventable by avoidance of these exposures. Infections and active smoking followed by alcohol drinking were the greatest contributing factors to cancer in Japan in 2015.

Association of Serum Asymmetric Dimethylarginine with the Severity of Coronary Artery Disease: A Pilot Study

Background

Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), an inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase (NOS), has been implicated in endothelial dysfunction and atherogenesis. Though there is much evidence linking ADMA with atherosclerosis and adverse cardiovascular events, only a few studies have established the independent relationship between elevated ADMA and the angiographic extent of coronary artery disease (CAD). The aim of the study was to analyze serum ADMA levels in patients with varied extent and severity of coronary atherosclerosis and to see whether the levels of ADMA in male and female participants vary significantly.

Methods

We analyzed 40 individuals with obstructive CAD, including men and women, between the ages of 30 and 60. According to their coronary angiographic reports, the participants were divided into four groups: minor CAD, single vessel disease (SVD), double vessel disease (DVD) group and triple vessel disease (TVD). Then, serum ADMA levels was measured and compared among these groups.

Results

ADMA level was significantly higher in patients with TVD (167.74±16.69) than those in the DVD (159.46±10.40), SVD (149.54±16.39) and minor CAD (144.5± 24.16) group (p-value= 0.0001). There was no significant difference in ADMA levels between male and female participants (p= 0.534).

Conclusion

ADMA concentration in the serum may be useful in identifying whether CAD correlates significantly to the extent and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.

The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe

BACKGROUND

Smoking, obesity and alcohol abuse greatly affect mortality and exhibit a distinct time dynamic, with their prevalence and associated mortality rates increasing and (eventually) declining over time. Their combined impact on secular trends in life expectancy is unknown but is relevant for understanding these trends. We therefore estimate the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.

METHODS

We used estimated national age-specific smoking-, obesity- and alcohol-attributable mortality fractions for 30 European countries by sex, 1990-2014, which we aggregated multiplicatively to obtain lifestyle-attributable mortality. We estimated potential gains in life expectancy by eliminating lifestyle-attributable mortality and compared past trends in life expectancy at birth (e0) with and without lifestyle-attributable mortality. We examined all countries combined, by region and individually.

RESULTS

Among men, the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on e0 declined from 6.6 years in 1990 to 5.8 years in 2014, mainly due to declining smoking-attributable mortality. Among women, the combined impact increased from 1.9 to 2.3 years due to mortality increases in all three lifestyle-related factors. The observed increase in e0 over the 1990-2014 period was 5.0 years for men and 4.0 years for women. After excluding lifestyle-attributable mortality, this increase would have been 4.2-4.3 years for both men and women.

CONCLUSION

Without the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol, the increase over time in life expectancy at birth would have been smaller among men but larger among women, resulting in a stable increase in e0, parallel for men and women.

Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol

Introduction: In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to unreliable outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifestyle 'epidemics'. Methods: We project life expectancy for 18 European countries by taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol on mortality, and the mortality experiences of forerunner populations. Results: We project that life expectancy in these 18 countries will increase from, on average, 83.4 years for women and 78.3 years for men in 2014 to 92.8 years for women and 90.5 years for men in 2065. Compared to others (Lee-Carter, Eurostat, United Nations), we project higher future life expectancy values and more realistic differences between countries and sexes. Conclusions: Our results imply longer individual lifespans, and more elderly in society. Funding: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (grant no. 452-13-001).

Diet Quality as Measured by the Healthy Eating Index 2015 and Oral and Pharyngeal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

Alcohol and tobacco are the major risk factors for oral and pharyngeal cancer, but diet is likely to have a role, too.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to analyze the relationship between adherence to the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA), as measured by the Healthy Eating Index 2015 (HEI-2015), and oral and pharyngeal cancer risk. Moreover, this work aimed to quantify the number of avoidable cases under different scenarios of increased adherence to the DGA, with the use of the potential impact fraction. This estimates the proportion of cases that would occur if the distribution of the risk factor in the population followed an alternative distribution.

DESIGN

A multicenter, case-control study was conducted in Italy between 1991 and 2009. Participants' usual diet for the 2 years preceding study enrolment was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Cases were 946 patients admitted to major hospitals with incident, histologically confirmed oral and pharyngeal cancer. Controls were 2,492 patients admitted to the same hospitals for acute non neoplastic conditions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The adherence to the DGA was assessed using the HEI-2015 score (range = 0 to 100), based on 13 components. The outcome was oral and pharyngeal cancer.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Odds ratios and the corresponding 95% CIs were estimated using multiple logistic regression models adjusted for tobacco, alcohol, and other relevant covariates. The potential impact fraction was estimated under different scenarios of adherence to the DGA.

RESULTS

In this Italian population the HEI-2015 score ranged from 33.4 to 97.5. A higher HEI-2015 score was associated with a lower risk of oral and pharyngeal cancer, with an odds ratio of 0.70 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.79) for a 10-point increment of the score. The estimated potential impact fraction was 64.8% under the maximum achievable reduction scenario, and it ranged from 9% to 27% following other more feasible scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The HEI-2015 score was inversely related to oral and pharyngeal cancer risk in this Italian population. This analysis allowed for the estimation of the fraction of preventable cases, under different feasible scenarios. A share of 9% to 27% of avoidable cases of oral and pharyngeal cancer might be obtained across real-world scenarios of adherence to the DGA as measured by the HEI-2015 score.

The relationship between neighbourhood walkability and cardiovascular risk factors in northern France

BACKGROUND

Although walkability is known to be associated with obesity and hypertension through increased physical activity; data on cardiovascular risk factors (especially in the Europe) are scarce. We assessed the relationship between neighbourhood walkability and cardiometabolic factors (including obesity, hypertension, the blood lipid profile, and serum glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels) among adults living in northern France.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the ELISABET study database (2011-2013). The participants (aged between 40 and 65) resided in or around the cities of Lille and Dunkirk. For each residential address, we determined a neighbourhood walkability index (using a geographic information system) and the Walk Score®. Multilevel linear and logistic models were used to assess the relationships between neighbourhood walkability on one hand and body mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, hypertension, serum HDLC, LDL-C, triglyceride and HbA1c levels, and physical activity level on the other.

RESULTS

3218 participants were included. After adjusting for individual and neighbourhood variables, we found that a higher neighbourhood walkability index was associated with a lower BMI (-0.23 kg.m^-2; 95% confidence interval (CI) [-0.44;-0.01] for a one interquartile range (IQR) increment), a lower systolic blood pressure (-1.66 mmHg; 95% CI [-2.46;-0.85] per IQR), a lower prevalence of hypertension (% of increase: -7.12, 95% CI [-13.56;-0.52] per IQR), and a higher prevalence of moderate or high physical activity (% of increase = 6.9; 95% CI [1.2;12.72] per IQR). The walkability index was not significantly associated with other cardiovascular risk factors. Similar results were observed for the Walk Score®.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed that residence in a more walkable neighbourhood was associated with a lower prevalence of vascular risk factors. Promoting neighbourhood walkability might help to improve the population's cardiovascular health.

Validation of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk predictions in Sri Lankans based on findings from a prospective cohort study

Introduction and objectives

There are no cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction models for Sri Lankans. Different risk prediction models not validated for Sri Lankans are being used to predict CV risk of Sri Lankans. We validated the WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) risk prediction charts prospectively in a population-based cohort of Sri Lankans.

Method

We selected 40–64 year-old participants from the Ragama Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area in 2007 by stratified random sampling and followed them up for 10 years. Ten-year risk predictions of a fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular event (CVE) in 2007 were calculated using WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) charts with and without cholesterol. The CVEs that occurred from 2007–2017 were ascertained. Risk predictions in 2007 were validated against observed CVEs in 2017.

Results

Of 2517 participants, the mean age was 53.7 year (SD: 6.7) and 1132 (45%) were males. Using WHO/ISH chart with cholesterol, the percentages of subjects with a 10-year CV risk <10%, 10–19%, 20%-29%, 30–39%, ≥40% were 80.7%, 9.9%, 3.8%, 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively. 142 non-fatal and 73 fatal CVEs were observed during follow-up. Among the cohort, 9.4% were predicted of having a CV risk ≥20% and 8.6% CVEs were observed in the risk category. CVEs were within the predictions of WHO/ISH charts with and without cholesterol in both high (≥20%) and low(<20%) risk males, but only in low(<20%) risk females. The predictions of WHO/ISH charts, with-and without-cholesterol were in agreement in 81% of subjects (ĸ = 0.429; p<0.001).

Conclusions

WHO/ISH (SEAR B) risk prediction charts with-and without-cholesterol may be used in Sri Lanka. Risk charts are more predictive in males than in females and for lower-risk categories. The predictions when stratifying into 2 categories, low risk (<20%) and high risk (≥20%), are more appropriate in clinical practice.

Migrant Communities at the Center in Co-design of Health Literacy-Based Innovative Solutions for Non-communicable Diseases Prevention and Risk Reduction: Application of the OPtimising HEalth LIteracy and Access (Ophelia) Process

The drivers of high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCD) among migrants are well-documented. Health literacy is regarded as a potential tool to reduce health inequalities and improve migrant's access to and quality of health care. Yet, little is known about the health literacy needs among these groups and how to address them. This paper outlines the protocol for a migrant community-based co-design project that seeks to optimize health literacy, health promotion, and social cohesion in support of prevention of NCDs among migrants in Lisbon using the OPtismizing HEalth LIteracy and Access (Ophelia) process. This participatory implementation research project starts with a mixed-methods needs assessment covering health literacy strengths, weaknesses and needs of migrants, and local data about determinants of health behaviors, service engagement, and organizational responsiveness. Diverse migrant groups will be engaged and surveyed using the Health Literacy Questionnaire and questions on sociodemographic and economic characteristics, health status, use of health services, and perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Semi-structured interviews with migrants will also be conducted. Based on data collected, vignettes will be developed representing typical persons with diverse health literacy profiles. Migrants and stakeholders will participate in ideas generation workshops for depth co-creation discussions in simulated real-world situations based on the vignettes, to design health literacy-based multisectoral interventions. Selected interventions will be piloted through quality improvement cycles to ensure ongoing local refinements and ownership development. Through a genuine engagement, the project will evaluate the uptake, effectiveness and sustainability of the interventions. This protocol takes a grounded approach to produce evidence on real health literacy needs from the perspective of key stakeholders, especially migrants, and embodies strong potential for effective knowledge translation into innovative, locally relevant, culturally and context congruent solutions for prevention of NCDs among migrants. Given the diverse communities engaged, this protocol will likely be adaptable to other migrant groups in a wide range of contexts, particularly in European countries. The scale-up of interventions to similar contexts and populations will provide much needed evidence on how health literacy interventions can be developed and applied to reduce health inequality and improve health in diverse communities.

An Association Rule Mining Analysis of Lifestyle Behavioral Risk Factors in Cancer Survivors with High Cardiovascular Disease Risk

We aimed to assess which lifestyle risk behaviors have the greatest influence on the risk of cardiovascular disease in cancer survivors and which of these behaviors are most prominently clustered in cancer survivors, using logistic regression and association rule mining (ARM). We analyzed a consecutive series of 897 cancer survivors from the Korean National Health and Nutritional Exam Survey (2012-2016). Cardiovascular disease risks were assessed using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease score (ASCVDs). We classified participants as being in a low-risk group if their calculated ASCVDs was less than 10% and as being in a high-risk group if their score was 10% or higher. We used association rule mining to analyze patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors by ASCVDs risk group, based upon public health recommendations described in the Alameda 7 health behaviors (current smoking, heavy drinking, physical inactivity, obesity, breakfast skipping, frequent snacking, and suboptimal sleep duration). Forty-two percent of cancer survivors had a high ASCVD. Current smoking (common odds ratio, 11.19; 95% confidence interval, 3.66-34.20, p < 0.001) and obesity (common odds ratio, 2.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-5.08, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of high ASCVD in cancer survivors within a multivariate model. In ARM analysis, current smoking and obesity were identified as important lifestyle risk behaviors in cancer survivors. In addition, various lifestyle risk behaviors co-occurred with smoking in male cancer survivors.

Association between the combined effects of GSTM1 present/null and CYP1A1 MspI polymorphisms with lung cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis

Background: Many studies have been performed to explore the combined effects of glutathione-S-transferase M1 (GSTM1) present/null and cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1) MspI polymorphisms with lung cancer (LC) risk, but the results are contradictory. Two previous meta-analyses have been reported on the issue in 2011 and 2014. However, several new articles since then have been published. In addition, their meta-analyses did not valuate the credibility of significantly positive results.

Objectives: We performed an updated meta-analysis to solve the controversy following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

Methods: False-positive report probability (FPRP), Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP), and the Venice criteria were used to verify the credibility of meta-analyses.

Results: Twenty-three publications including 5734 LC cases and 7066 controls met the inclusion criteria in the present study. A significantly increased risk of LC was found in overall analysis, Asians and Indians. However, all positive results were considered as ‘less-credible’ when we used the Venice criteria, FPRP, and BFDP test to assess the credibility of the positive results.

Conclusion: These positive findings should be interpreted with caution and results indicate that significant associations may be less-credible, there are no significantly increased LC risk between the combined effects of GSTM1 present/null and CYP1A1 MspI polymorphisms.

Tools and Methods to Include Health in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policies: A Scoping Review

Climate change represents a serious threat to the health and well-being of populations. Today, many countries, regions, and cities around the world are implementing policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects. A scoping review was performed to identify tools and methods that help integrate health into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies. The literature search includes scientific and grey literature. The scientific literature was conducted using PubMed, Elsevier Embase, and Web of Science databases. A grey literature web search was performed to complement the results. A total of 35 studies (28 from the scientific literature and 7 from the grey literature) were finally included. A large majority of research articles (24/28) and almost all reports (6/7) from the grey literature were published after 2010. Results show that the tools that were found most frequently are the nested models (12/35), health impact assessment (6/35), vulnerability and adaptation assessment (3/35), conceptual frameworks (3/35), and mixed methods (3/35). This review shows an increasing interest in the topic of developing tools to better manage health issues in adaptation and mitigation strategies, with a recent increase in the number of publications. Additional analyses of tools' effectiveness should be conducted in further studies.

High educational attainment redresses the effect of occupational social class on health-related lifestyle: findings from four Spanish national health surveys

PURPOSE

Social determinants as occupational social class or educational attainment might influence health outcomes. This phenomenon is known as the social gradient of health and is related to a skewed distribution of health behaviours that might explain differences in morbidity and mortality between social groups. But social class and educational attainment differ in their nature and might have distinct effects on health. Here we study the combined effect of educational attainment and occupational social class on health-related lifestyle.

METHODS

We retrieved data from four large-scale, national representative Spanish surveys (n = 67,171). A latent class regression analysis was run to identify clusters of health-related lifestyle behaviours. Clusters were made according to sociodemographic factors, including a combined analysis of education and occupational social class.

RESULTS

Higher educational attainment and occupational social class were associated with a healthier lifestyle for both sexes. The combined analysis of education and social class indicated that women with secondary education showed a high risk combination of unhealthy behaviours, as men with middle, primary or no education.

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of social class, a higher educational attainment redresses the effect of occupational social class on health-related behaviours. Our results suggest that education likely plays a crucial role in population health outcomes through its effects on lifestyle.

Caffeinated Coffee Consumption and Health Outcomes in the US Population: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis and Estimation of Disease Cases and Deaths Avoided

To explore the role of coffee on health outcomes in the United States, where coffee consumption is common, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies investigating the magnitude (any compared with no consumption) and the dose-response shape (cups per day) of the associations between caffeinated coffee consumption and incidence/mortality of cardiovascular disease (CVD), as well as incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), endometrial cancer, melanoma, and nonmelanoma skin cancer. We selected the desirable health outcomes that have been shown to be positively associated with coffee consumption. Studies were identified by searching PubMed/Embase databases up to September 2019. Inclusion criteria included prospective studies that investigated the relation of ≥3 categories of caffeinated coffee consumption and the outcomes of interest. Twenty-six studies (42 distinct cohorts), with 93,706 cases/deaths and 3,713,932 participants, met the inclusion criteria. In any coffee consumers, there was a significant inverse association with the risk of CVD (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.96), T2D (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.96), endometrial cancer (RR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.92), melanoma (RR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.99), and nonmelanoma skin cancer (RR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.95). Coffee consumption was also inversely associated with HCC (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.80, 1.08), without reaching statistical significance. The dose-response relation was nonlinear uniquely for CVD (P-nonlinearity = 0.01). In particular, the largest risk reduction was observed for 3-4 cups/d (∼120 mL/cup) and no reduction thereafter. For other outcomes, the risk decreased linearly over the whole coffee consumption range. Current patterns of consumption in the United States would account for a fraction of avoided cases/deaths ranging from 6% to 12% according to the outcome considered. This study confirms the beneficial health effects of caffeinated coffee consumption in the US population on the health outcomes considered, and quantifies their possible magnitude.

Lifestyle factors associated with incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in US adults: analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To quantify rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases attributable to selected non-genetic risk factors.

DESIGN

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and meta-analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

US adults.

DATA SOURCES

The prevalence of exposure was obtained from NHANES. Weighted analysis was performed to account for the complex sampling design in NHANES. PubMed and Web of Science up to 31 March 2019 were searched to identify epidemiological studies reported the association between non-genetic risk factors and RA in US adults. Relative risk (RR) value and the corresponding CI were pooled by meta-analysis to evaluate the associations between modifiable risk factors and RA. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated based on the prevalence and RR data.

RESULTS

The weighted percentages of former smokers, current smokers and overweight or obese people were 24.84%, 23.93% and 63.97%, and the average alcohol consumption was 51.34 g/week. In the meta-analysis, we found that former smokers (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.36) and current smokers (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.68) had higher risks of RA. Overweight and obese individuals had 1.27-fold (95% CI 1.09 to 1.48) increased risk of RA. Each per 50 g/week increment of alcohol consumption was associated with 8% (95% CI 0% to 16%) reduction in the risk of RA. Therefore, PAF value of smoking was 14.00% (95% CI 8.13% to 23.33%). Excess body mass index (BMI) was found to account for 14.73% (95% CI 5.45% to 23.50%) of RA incidence. The fraction of RA risk attributed by low alcohol intake was 8.21% (95% CI 0.31% to 16.39%). Collectively, we found that 32.69% (95% CI 13.41% to 50.96%) of RA cases were attributable to smoking, overweight or obesity and low alcohol drinking.

CONCLUSION

Nearly 33% of RA incidence was attributed to smoking, excess BMI and low alcohol drinking in USA. Our findings could provide a basis for developing guidelines of RA prevention and control in USA.

Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh

Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM_2.5 concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM_2.5 exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM_2.5 exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh's NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh's NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM_2.5 emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. These emission reductions could reduce population-weighted ambient PM_2.5 concentrations in Bangladesh by 18% in 2030, and avoid approximately 12,000 and 100,000 premature deaths attributable to ambient and household PM_2.5 exposures, respectively, in 2030. As countries are simultaneously planning to achieve the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, improve air quality to reduce health impacts and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the LEAP-IBC tool provides a practical framework by which planners can develop integrated strategies, achieving multiple air quality and climate benefits.

Factors Associated With Length of Stay for Patients With Stroke in Malaysia

Introduction

Globally, stroke continues to become a significant public health issue contributing to one of the significant causes of morbidity and mortality. The study aimed to describe the characteristics of patients with stroke who were admitted to a teaching hospital in Malaysia and to determine the factors associated with length of stay (LOS).

Methods

This is a single-center, cross-sectional study using in-patient data maintained by the Case-Mix Unit of a teaching hospital in Malaysia from 2016 to 2017. The study included all patients with International Classification of Disease (ICD) code 164 (stroke, not specified as hemorrhage or infarct). The significance of association was determined using nonparametric tests in the form of the Mann-Whitney U test and the Kruskal-Wallis test.

Results

A total of 162 stroke patients from 2016 to 2017 from Case-Mix database were included in the study. The age ranged from 31 to 97 years old. The minimum and maximum LOS for patients with stroke ranged from 1 to 17 days. The severity of illness was found to be significantly associated with longer LOS (p < 0.001); however, age, sex, and presence of co-morbidities did not show any significant association.

Conclusion

Despite its limitations, this study is an essential first step to examine the characteristics of patients with stroke and to determine the factors associated with LOS.

Population Attributable Fraction of Established Modifiable Risk Factors on Colorectal Cancer in Korea

Purpose

We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of established risk factors for colorectal cancer, to provide evidence for prioritizing cancer prevention policy.

Materials and Methods

The exposure prevalence was calculated by using data from the 2005 Korean National Health Examination Survey for tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, physical inactivity, and meat intake. Risk estimates (relative risks) were selected from the published meta-analyses. Cancer incidence data from the Korea Central Cancer Registry were used to estimate the preventable number of colorectal cancer cases in 2015.

Results

The PAFs of the tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, physical inactivity, and consumption of red and processed meat were as follows: 9.2%, 11.1%, 9.1%, 18.9%, and 10.1% for colon cancer and 21.8%, 12.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%, and 9.2% for rectal cancer among men; 1.0%, 1.3%, 2.7%, 12.3% and 9.2% for colon cancer and 1.7%, 2.3%, 0.8%, 7.2%, and 8.3% for rectal cancer among women. The PAFs of selected risk factors were 46.2% for colon and 42.4% for rectum among men, while 24.3% for colon and 18.9% for rectum among women. The attributable numbers of colon and rectal cancer to selected risk factors were 4,028 and 3,049 cases among men, respectively, while 1,644 and 778 cases among women in the year of 2015.

Conclusion

Changes in modifiable risk factors could prevent half of the colorectal cancer in the Korean population.

Critical appraisal of a mHealth-assisted community-based cardiovascular disease risk screening program in rural Kenya: an operational research study

Community health workers (CHWs) can participate in the cascade of hypertension and diabetes management in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Their services may be enhanced with mobile health (mHealth) tools. In this operational research study, we describe the AFYACHAT mHealth-assisted cardiovascular health screening program in rural Kenya. In this study, A CHW screened a convenience sample of adults ≥ 40 years old in rural Kenya for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using the two-way AFYACHAT mHealth instrument. AFYACHAT analyzes a patient's age, sex, smoking, diabetes and systolic blood pressure and provides a four-tiered 10-year CVD risk score. User acceptability was assessed by an end-of-study interview with the CWH. Automated error logs were analyzed. Patient satisfaction was measured with a six-question satisfaction questionnaire. Screened participants with high CVD risk were followed-up via telephone to explore any actions taken following screening. In 24 months, one CHW screened 1650 participants using AFYACHAT. The 10-year risk of CVD was <10% for 1611 (98%) patients, 10 to <20% for 26 (1.6%), 20 to <30% in 12 (0.7%), and ≥30% for 1 (0.1%). The point prevalence of hypertension and diabetes was 27% and 1.9%, respectively. Seventy-five percent of participants with elevated CVD risk sought further medical care. There was high acceptability, a 15% miscode error rate, and high participant satisfaction with the screening program. Our operational research outlines how AFYACHAT mHealth tool can assist CHW perform rapid CVD screening; this provides a model framework for non-communicable disease screening in LMICs.

Coronary heart disease diagnosis by artificial neural networks including aortic pulse wave velocity index and clinical parameters

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), are the main cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. CHD is not entirely predicted by classic risk factors; however, they are preventable. Facing this major problem, the development of novel methods for CHD risk prediction is of practical interest. The purpose of our study was to construct an artificial neural networks (ANNs)-based diagnostic model for CHD risk using a complex of clinical and haemodynamics factors of this disease and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) index.

METHODS

A total of 437 patients were included from 2012 to 2017: 99 CHD and 338 non-CHD patients. Theoretical PWV was calculated, on 93 patients free of hypertension, diabetes and CHD, according to age, blood pressure, sex and heart rate. The results were expressed as an index [(measured PWV - theoretical PWV)/theoretical PWV] for each patient. The original database for ANNs included clinical, haemodynamic and laboratory characteristics. Multilayered perceptron ANNs architecture were applied. The performance of prediction was evaluated by accuracy values based on standard definitions.

RESULTS

By changing the types of ANNs and the number of input factors applied, we created models that demonstrated 0.63-0.93 accuracy. The best accuracy was obtained with ANNs topology of multilayer perceptron with three hidden layers for models, parameters included by both biological factors, carotid plaque and PWV index.

CONCLUSION

ANNs models including a PWV index could be used as promising approaches for predicting CHD risk without the need for invasive diagnostic methods and may help in the clinical decision.

A Mitochondrial Approach to Cardiovascular Risk and Disease

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a leading risk factor for mortality worldwide and the number of CVDs victims is predicted to rise through 2030. While several external parameters (genetic, behavioral, environmental and physiological) contribute to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; intrinsic metabolic and functional determinants such as insulin resistance, hyperglycemia, inflammation, high blood pressure and dyslipidemia are considered to be dominant factors.

METHODS

Pubmed searches were performed using different keywords related with mitochondria and cardiovascular disease and risk. In vitro, animal and human results were extracted from the hits obtained.

RESULTS

High cardiac energy demand is sustained by mitochondrial ATP production, and abnormal mitochondrial function has been associated with several lifestyle- and aging-related pathologies in the developed world such as diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and kidney diseases, that in turn can lead to cardiac injury. In order to delay cardiac mitochondrial dysfunction in the context of cardiovascular risk, regular physical activity has been shown to improve mitochondrial parameters and myocardial tolerance to ischemia-reperfusion (IR). Furthermore, pharmacological interventions can prevent the risk of CVDs. Therapeutic agents that can target mitochondria, decreasing ROS production and improve its function have been intensively researched. One example is the mitochondria-targeted antioxidant MitoQ10, which already showed beneficial effects in hypertensive rat models. Carvedilol or antidiabetic drugs also showed protective effects by preventing cardiac mitochondrial oxidative damage.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the role of mitochondrial dysfunction in CVDs, also show-casing several approaches that act by improving mitochondrial function in the heart, contributing to decrease some of the risk factors associated with CVDs.

Estimating the potential impact of behavioral public health interventions nationally while maintaining agreement with global patterns on relative risks

Objective

This paper introduces a novel method to evaluate the local impact of behavioral scenarios on disease prevalence and burden with representative individual level data while ensuring that the model is in agreement with the qualitative patterns of global relative risk (RR) estimates. The method is used to estimate the impact of behavioral scenarios on the burden of disease due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) and diabetes in the Turkish adult population.

Methods

Disease specific Hierarchical Bayes (HB) models estimate the individual disease probability as a function of behaviors, demographics, socio-economics and other controls, where constraints are specified based on the global RR estimates. The simulator combines the counterfactual disease probability estimates with disability adjusted life year (DALY)-per-prevalent-case estimates and rolls up to the targeted population level, thus reflecting the local joint distribution of exposures. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study meta-analysis results guide the analysis of the Turkish National Health Surveys (2008 to 2016) that contain more than 90 thousand observations.

Findings

The proposed Qualitative Informative HB models do not sacrifice predictive accuracy versus benchmarks (logistic regression and HB models with non-informative and numerical informative priors) while agreeing with the global patterns. In the Turkish adult population, Increasing Physical Activity reduces the DALYs substantially for both IHD by 8.6% (6.4% 11.2%), and Diabetes by 8.1% (5.8% 10.6%), (90% uncertainty intervals). Eliminating Smoking and Second-hand Smoke predominantly decreases the IHD burden 13.1% (10.4% 15.8%) versus Diabetes 2.8% (1.1% 4.6%). Increasing Fruit and Vegetable Consumption, on the other hand, reduces IHD DALYs by 4.1% (2.8% 5.4%) while not improving the Diabetes burden 0.1% (0% 0.1%).

Conclusion

While the national RR estimates are in qualitative agreement with the global patterns, the scenario impact estimates are markedly different than the attributable risk estimates from the GBD analysis and allow evaluation of practical scenarios with multiple behaviors.

Socio-demographic differentials of cognitive development and nutrition among school children: evidence from the tribal areas of Jharkhand, India

BACKGROUND

This study attempts to assess the differentials of cognitive development and nutrition of school children in tribal areas of Jharkhand, India.

METHODOLOGY

A cross-sectional study was carried out in 16 schools of Jharkhand amongst 962 children during the period of November to December 2017. Anthropometry, hemoglobin and IQ tests were assessed along-with their socio-demographic characteristics using standard procedures after obtaining their guardian's consent. Various tests of significance were used such as an independent sample t-test and Fisher's exact test along with multinomial logistic regression for determination of predictors for low-normal to borderline IQ among school children.

RESULTS

Stunting and thinness were noted in 38% and 35% children, respectively, whereas anemia and low IQ were observed in more than 4/5th of the total children assessed. Anemia was more common in children >12 years of age and IQ was lower in tribal ethnic children (p < 0.05) amongst socio-demographic characteristics. Among the predictors, only tribal ethnicity appeared to be associated with low IQ [odds ratio (OR)-1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) - 1.25, 2.75].

CONCLUSION

Despite various nutrition-related programs being run in government schools, the malnutrition and hemoglobin status of the children presents a poor picture. Cognitive development of children particularly tribal children is unsatisfactory and needs to be worked upon by government agencies.

Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Disease in China and Opportunities for Improvement: JACC International

The burden of cardiovascular (CV) disease is very high in China, due to highly prevalent and poorly controlled risk factors resulting from changing sociodemographic structure and lifestyles in its large population. Rapid economic development and urbanization have been accompanied by changing patterns, expression, and management of CV disease. However, the health care system in China lacks a hierarchical structure, with a focus on treating acute diseases in hospital while ignoring long-term management, and primary health care is too weak to effectively control CV risk factors. To address these challenges, the Chinese central government has ensured health is a national priority and has introduced reforms that include implementing policies for a healthy environment, strengthening primary care, and improving affordability and accessibility within the health system. Turning the inverted pyramid of the health care system is essential in the ongoing battle against CV disease.

Hostility, depression and incident cardiac events in the GAZEL cohort

BACKGROUND

Psychological factors such as hostility and depression have been associated with cardiovascular disease. However, their role in predicting incident cardiac events independently one of another is not clear.

METHODS

Among 10,304 GAZEL middle-aged workers free of cardiovascular diseases in 1993, 581 incident cardiac events were validated from 1994-2014. Hostile traits (cognitive hostility, behavioral hostility, irritability and negativism) were assessed with the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory at baseline. Depressive symptoms were assessed at baseline and every three years with the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) of hostile traits for incident cardiac events adjusting for baseline self-reported socio-demographics and family history of coronary heart diseases (model 1), then additionally for time-dependent depressive symptoms (either as a binary or continuous variable) (model 2) and for yearly self-reported modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (physical activity, smoking, body mass index, diabetes, dyslipidemia and hypertension) (model 3).

RESULTS

In Model 1, the only hostile trait associated with incident cardiac events was irritability (HR for one interquartile range: 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.32). This association was no longer statistically significant when further adjusting for depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms, in turn, remained significant predictors of cardiac events with HRs ranging from 1.40-1.49 (binary).

LIMITATIONS

Hostility traits were measured only once.

CONCLUSIONS

Depressive symptoms might explain the association between irritability and cardiac events and should therefore be prioritized in interventions aiming to prevent cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying this association.

The Association of Childhood Pneumonia with Household Air Pollution in Nepal: Evidence from Nepal Demographic Health Surveys

INTRODUCTION

Childhood pneumonia is a major cause of mortality worldwide while household air pollution (HAP) is a major contributor to childhood pneumonia in low and middle-income countries. This paper presents the prevalence trend of childhood pneumonia in Nepal and assesses its association with household air pollution.

METHODS

The study analysed data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Nepal Demographic Health Surveys (NDHS). It calculated the prevalence of childhood pneumonia and the factors that cause household air pollution. The association of childhood pneumonia and HAP was assessed using univariate and multi-variate analysis. The population attributable fraction (PAF) of indoor pollution for causing pneumonia was calculated using 2016 NDHS data to assess the burden of pneumonia attributable to HAP factors.

RESULTS

The prevalence of childhood pneumonia decreased in Nepal between 2006 and 2016 and was higher among households using polluting cooking fuels. There was a higher risk of childhood pneumonia among children who lived in households with no separate kitchens in 2011 [Adjusted risk ratio (ARR) 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.97] and in 2016 (ARR 1.93, 95% CI 1.14-3.28). In 2016, the risk of children contracting pneumonia in households using polluting fuels was double (ARR 1.98, 95% CI 1.01-3.92) that of children from households using clean fuels. Based on the 2016 data, the PAF for pneumonia was calculated as 30.9% for not having a separate kitchen room and 39.8% for using polluting cooking fuel.

DISCUSSION FOR PRACTICE

Although the occurrence of childhood pneumonia in Nepal has decreased, the level of its association with HAP remained high.

The effects of temperature on human mortality in a Chinese city: burden of disease calculation, attributable risk exploration, and vulnerability identification

Few studies have examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature to mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL), especially in developing countries. This study aims to explore the short-term effect of the cold and hot temperatures on the cause-specific YLL and mortality, discover the attributable contributions from the temperature variations, and identify the vulnerable populations in Weifang, China. Daily registered death information and meteorological data over the period 2010-2016 were obtained in Weifang, a northern Chinese city. Generalized additive Poisson and Gaussian regression models were used to assess the impacts of temperatures on both mortality and YLL, explore the AF of the temperature variations on mortality, after adjusting for other covariates. Both hot and cold temperatures have had significant negative impacts on cause-specific mortality counts and YLL, with heat presented an acute and short effect and the cold temperatures had delayed effects and lasted for several days. In terms of the attributable fraction calculations, the contributions from cold effects was higher than that of hot effects on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths (YLL 10.88 vs. 1.23%, 19.58 vs. 1.71%, and 14.47 vs. 3.05%; mortality 13.97 vs. 1.65%, 19.20 vs. 1.59%, and 14.89 vs. 3.09%), respectively. The elderly and women and people with low education level were the most vulnerable. The findings will provide important scientific evidences and policy implications for developing adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse effect of cold and hot exposure in Weifang, in terms of resource allocation, healthcare workforce capacity building, and community health education, especially for the vulnerable groups.

Cancers Due to Infection and Selected Environmental Factors

BACKGROUND

Causal relationships with the occurrence of cancer have been established for a number of infections and environmental risk factors.

METHODS

Numbers and proportions (population-attributable fractions, PAF) of cancer cases attributable to these factors in Germany were calculated by sex and age groups for ages 35 to 84 years based on population projections, national cancer incidence, exposure data, and published risk estimates.

RESULTS

For 2018, more than 17 600 cancer cases (4.0% of all incident cancers) were estimated to be attributable to infections. The largest contributions come from Helicobacter pylori (n = 8764) and human papillomavirus (n = 7669) infections. Infection with hepatitis B and C, human immunodeficiency virus, and human herpesvirus 8 were estimated to cause 983 cases, 144 cases, and 116 cases, respectively. More than 5400 cancer cases (1.2% of all incident cancers) were estimated to be attributable to selected environmental factors, of which the largest contributor is indoor radon (n = 3185), followed by particulate matter (n = 1049), sunbed use (n = 892), and secondhand smoke (n = 309).

CONCLUSION

Of all cancers expected in 2018 in Germany, at least 5% are attributable to potentially avoidable infections and environmental factors. Further research should be directed towards more comprehensive identification and quantification of environmental risks as a basis for targeted cancer prevention.

Relative contribution of overweight and obesity to rising public hospital in-patient expenditure in South Australia

Objective Arguments to fund obesity prevention have often focused on the growing hospital costs of associated diseases. However, the relative contribution of overweight and obesity to public hospital expenditure growth is not well understood. This paper examines the effect of overweight and obesity on acute public hospital in-patient expenditure in South Australia over time compared with other expenditure drivers. Methods Annual inflation-adjusted acute public admitted expenditure attributable to a high body mass index was estimated for 2007-08 and 2011-12 and compared with other expenditure drivers. Results Expenditure attributable to overweight and obesity increased by A$45million, from 4.7% to 5.4% of total acute public in-patient expenditure. This increase accounted for 7.8% of the A$583million total expenditure growth, whereas the largest component of total growth (62.4%) was a real increase in the average cost per separation. Conclusions The relatively minor contribution of overweight and obesity to expenditure growth over the time period examined invites reflection on arguments to boost preventive spending that centre upon reducing hospital costs. These arguments may inadvertently detract attention from the considerable health and social burdens of overweight and obesity and from unrelated sources of expenditure growth that reduce opportunities for state governments to fund obesity prevention programs despite their comparative benefits to population health. What is known about the topic? Stand-alone estimates suggest that overweight and obesity are placing a considerable financial burden on the Australian public healthcare system. What does this paper add? Our findings challenge common perceptions about the relative importance of overweight and obesity in the context of rising public in-patient expenditure in Australia. What are the implications for practitioners? Consistent serial estimates of overweight- and obesity-attributable expenditure enable its tracking and comparison with other potentially controllable expenditure drivers that may also warrant attention. Explicit consideration of population health trade-offs in expenditure-related decisions, including in enterprise bargaining, would enhance transparency in priority setting.

Three Public Health Interventions Could Save 94 Million Lives in 25 Years

BACKGROUND

Preventable noncommunicable diseases, mostly cardiovascular diseases, are responsible for 38 million deaths annually. A few well-documented interventions have the potential to prevent many of these deaths, but a large proportion of the population in need does not have access to these interventions. We quantified the global mortality impact of 3 high-impact and feasible interventions: scaling up treatment of high blood pressure to 70%, reducing sodium intake by 30%, and eliminating the intake of artificial trans fatty acids.

METHODS

We used global data on mean blood pressure levels and sodium and trans fat intake by country, age, and sex from a pooled analysis of population health surveys, and regional estimates of current coverage of antihypertensive medications, and cause-specific mortality rates in each country, as well, with projections from 2015 to 2040. We used the most recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies to derive relative risk reductions for each intervention. We estimated the proportional effect of each intervention on reducing mortality from related causes by using a generalized version of the population-attributable fraction. The effect of antihypertensive medications and lowering sodium intake were modeled through their impact on blood pressure and as immediate increase/reduction to the proposed targets.

RESULTS

The combined effect of the 3 interventions delayed 94.3 million (95% uncertainty interval, 85.7-102.7) deaths during 25 years. Increasing coverage of antihypertensive medications to 70% alone would delay 39.4 million deaths (35.9-43.0), whereas reducing sodium intake by 30% would delay another 40.0 million deaths (35.1-44.6) and eliminating trans fat would delay an additional 14.8 million (14.7-15.0). The estimated impact of trans fat elimination was largest in South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest proportion of premature delayed deaths out of all delayed deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Three effective interventions can save almost 100 million lives globally within 25 years. National and international efforts to scale up these interventions should be a focus of cardiovascular disease prevention programs.

Short-term and long-term case-fatality rates for myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke by socioeconomic position and sex: a population-based cohort study in Sweden, 1990-1994 and 2005-2009

OBJECTIVE

Case-fatality rates (CFRs) for myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke (IS) have decreased over time due to better prevention, medication and hospital care. It is unclear whether these improvements have been equally distributed according to socioeconomic position (SEP) and sex. The aim of this study is to analyse differences in short-term and long-term CFR for MI and IS by SEP and sex between the periods 1990-1994 to 2005-2009 for the entire Swedish population.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study based on Swedish national registers.

METHODS

We used logistic regression and flexible parametric models to estimate short-term CFR (death before reaching the hospital or on the disease event day) and long-term CFR (1 year case-fatality conditional on surviving short-term) across five distinct SEP groups, as well as CFR differences (CFRDs) between SEP groups for both MI and IS from 1990-1994 to 2005-2009. : Result S: Overall short-term CFR for both MI and IS decreased between study periods. For MI, differences in short-term and long-term CFR between the least and most favourable SEP group were generally stable, except in long-term CFR among women; intermediate SEP groups mostly managed to catch up with the most favourable SEP group. For IS, short-term CFRD generally decreased compared with the most favourable group; but long-term CFRD were mostly stable, except for an increase for older subjects.

CONCLUSION

Despite a general decline in CFR for MI and IS across all SEP groups and both sexes as well as some reductions in CFRD, we found persistent and even increasing CFRD among the least advantaged SEP groups, older patients and women. We speculate that targeted prevention rather than treatment strategies have the potential to reduce these inequalities.