The effect of food taxes and subsidies on population health and health costs: a modelling study

Fruit for thought

OBJECTIVE

This commentary discusses the New Zealand Labour Party's announcement to remove tax on fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables. It aims to explore its potential impact on the psychological well-being of New Zealanders in the context of the growing global burden of mental illnesses in the current food environment.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed tax exemption on fruits and vegetables demonstrates the government's commitment to improving the food environment. While the precise mental health effects of this potential tax change remain unstudied, existing evidence suggests a positive impact on New Zealanders' well-being, marking a pivotal step in addressing broader health issues and fostering a healthier, more equitable food landscape.

Long-term impact of unhealthy food tax on consumption and the drivers behind: A longitudinal study in Hungary

Several countries have introduced public health product taxes with the objective of reducing the absolute amount of consumption of unhealthy food and tackling obesity. This study aims to estimate the long-term impact of the Hungarian public health product tax introduced in 2011. To achieve this, a unique consumer purchase dataset was analysed to examine daily fast-moving consumer goods purchases from a representative sample of 2,000 households from 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that the tax has been fully reflected in consumer prices. A decline in consumption was observed initially, consistent with previous experiences in Hungary and other countries. However, over time, the data suggests a recovery and even an increase in line with the growth of disposable income. The proportion of taxed products in total fast-moving consumer goods purchases increased from 5.9 % (95 % CI: 5.7 % to 6.0 %) in 2010 to 7.4 % (95 % CI: 7.3 % to 7.6 %) in 2018. Furthermore, the tax has contributed to increased inequality as low-income households spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on it. Although taxes on unhealthy foods have proven effective in the short-term, they may not be adequate for reducing overall consumption in the long-term, particularly as disposable income increases. In conclusion, implementing complex interventions is necessary to achieve sustainable positive changes in dietary habits.

Health gains from achieving optimal body mass index in Australia: a simulation study

Background

We estimated the health gains and health inequality impacts for the Australian population alive in 2021 (n = 25.0 million) in the next 20 years and over their remaining lifespan, from shifting everyone above a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 25 kg/m2 compared to the BMI distribution in 2021 persisting into the future.

Methods

National Health Survey 2017-2018 was used to estimate BMI distributions by sex, age and, socio-economic status (Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas; SEIFA). A proportional multistate life table linking BMI to 19 associated diseases and allowing for time lags and competing morbidity and mortality, was used to estimate the future stream of health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained from eradicating high BMI.

Findings

Undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years and lifetime of the population were, respectively, 2.00 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.70-2.32) and 20.4 million (17.0-24.2) (at a 3% annual discount rate, HALY gains were 1.37 and 5.77 million, respectively). Reductions in the incidence of cardio metabolic diseases contributed 61% (95% UI: 54%-68%) of the undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years, musculoskeletal diseases contributed 26% (20%-32%) and cancer 5% (3%-8%). HALY gains in the first 20 years and lifetime, per person alive in 2021, were 2.5 (2.4-2.5) and 1.9 (1.9-2.0) times higher for the most compared to the least deprived SEIFA quintile.

Interpretation

The total theoretical envelope of health gains, and health inequality reductions, through eradication of BMI is substantial. Our modeling infrastructure can be used to estimate the health impacts and cost effectiveness of many actual interventions.

Funding

No funding was received for the study.

Benefits of population-level interventions for dementia risk factors: an economic modelling study for England

BACKGROUND

Individual-level interventions for dementia risk factors could reduce costs associated with dementia and some are cost-effective. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions for tackling dementia risk factors.

METHODS

In this economic modelling study, we included recommended population-based interventions from a previously published review article for which there was consistent and robust evidence of effectiveness in tackling a dementia risk factor (tobacco smoking, excess alcohol use, hypertension, obesity, air pollution, and head injury). We only included interventions if they had not been introduced in England or were in place but could be extended. The interventions studied were increases in tobacco pricing, minimum pricing for alcohol, raising alcohol price, salt reduction policies, sugar reduction policies, low emission zones, and compulsory helmet use for cycling by children (aged 5-18 years). We used published intervention effect sizes and relative risks for each risk factor and a Markov model to estimate progression to dementia in populations with and without the intervention, looking at lifetime risk, in the population of England.

FINDINGS

We estimated that reductions in excess alcohol use through minimum unit pricing would lead to cost-savings of £280 million and 4767 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over an indefinite succession of age cohorts. Reformulation of food products to reduce salt would lead to cost-savings of £2·4 billion and 39 433 QALYs gained and reformulation to reduce sugar would lead to cost-savings of £1·046 billion and 17 985 QALYs gained. Reducing dementia risk from air pollution by introducing low emission zones in English cities with a population of 100 000 or more (that do not already impose restrictions) would lead to £260 million cost-savings and 5119 QALYs gained. Raising cigarette prices by 10% to reduce dementia risk from smoking would lead to 2277 QALYs gained and cost-savings of £157 million. Making bicycle helmets compulsory for children (aged 5-18 years) to reduce dementia risk from head injury would lead to cost-savings of £91 million and 1554 QALYs gained.

INTERPRETATION

Population-level interventions could help tackle life course dementia risk and save costs.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Three Schools dementia research programme.

Changes in UK price disparities between healthy and less healthy foods over 10 years: An updated analysis with insights in the context of inflationary increases in the cost-of-living from 2021

Food prices and affordability play an important role in influencing dietary choices, which in turn have implications for public health. With inflationary increases in the cost-of-living in the UK since 2021, understanding the dynamics of food prices becomes increasingly important. In this longitudinal study, we aimed to examine changes in food prices from 2013 to 2023 by food group and by food healthiness. We established a dataset spanning the years 2013-2023 by combining price data from the UK Consumer Price Index for food and beverage items with nutrient and food data from the UK nutrient databank and UK Department of Health & Social Care's National Diet and Nutrition Survey data. We calculated the price (£/100 kcal) for each food item by year as well as before and during the period of inflationary pressure, and classified items into food groups according to the UK Eatwell Guide and as either "more healthy" or "less healthy" using the UK nutrient profiling score model. In 2023, bread, rice, potatoes and pasta was cheapest (£0.12/100 kcal) and fruit and vegetables most expensive (£1.01/100 kcal). Less healthy food was cheaper than more healthy food (£0.33/100 kcal versus £0.81/100 kcal). Before the inflationary pressure period (from 2013 to late 2021), the price of foods decreased by 3%. After this period, the price of food increased by 22%: relative increases were highest in the food group milk and dairy food (31%) and less healthy category (26%). While healthier foods saw smaller relative price increases since 2021, they remain more expensive, potentially exacerbating dietary inequalities. Policy responses should ensure food affordability and mitigate price disparities via, for example, healthy food subsidies.

Economic Evaluations of Obesity-Targeted Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) Taxes-A Review to Identify Methodological Issues

INTRODUCTION

Economic evaluations of public health interventions like sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes face difficulties similar to those previously identified in other public health areas. This stems from challenges in accurately attributing effects, capturing outcomes and costs beyond health, and integrating equity effects. This review examines how these challenges were addressed in economic evaluations of SSB taxes.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to identify economic evaluations of SSB taxes focused on addressing obesity in adults, published up to February 2021. The methodological challenges examined include measuring effects, valuing outcomes, assessing costs, and incorporating equity.

RESULTS

Fourteen economic evaluations of SSB taxes were identified. Across these evaluations, estimating SSB tax effects was uncertain due to a reliance on indirect evidence that was less robust than evidence from randomised controlled trials. Health outcomes, like quality-adjusted life years, along with a healthcare system perspective for costs, dominated the evaluations of SSB taxes, with a limited focus on broader non-health consequences. Equity analyses were common but employed significantly different approaches and exhibited varying degrees of quality.

CONCLUSION

Addressing the methodological challenges remains an issue for economic evaluations of public health interventions like SSB taxes, suggesting the need for increased attention on those issues in future studies. Dedicated methodological guidelines, in particular addressing the measurement of effect and incorporation of equity impacts, are warranted.

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: Knowledge, beliefs and where should the money go?

Background

The Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) industry consciously and subconsciously influences consumers to buy its products. Countering unhealthy messaging and behaviour could be tackled through the SSB levy and allocation of revenue toward healthy lifestyle programs. Given the limited information in the UAE on demographic and consumer knowledge and beliefs and allocation of SSB levy, we conducted a study to explore this further. The study objectives were to a) explore the association between demographic factors (nationality, income and education) with knowledge and beliefs for SSB and b) explore participants' views on allocating SSB levy toward healthy lifestyle programs.

Methods

A cross-sectional study of adults in the United Arab Emirates.

Results

The findings suggest knowledge was high for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages (SSB), obesity, and diabetes (1,231, 96.1%), and there was a high awareness of SSB tax (1,066, 83.2%). Knowledge and beliefs about Sugar-Sweetened Beverages were statistically significant for two demographic factors. There was support for the tax revenue to be spent on government programs and greater support for spending to be directed toward specific healthy lifestyle programs such as school health programmes (514, 39.8%), children's diet and nutrition programmes (497, 38.5%), physical activity programmes (480, 37.2%), among others.

Conclusions

The findings shed light on the influence demographic factors have on knowledge and beliefs, public health gaps and potential areas for SSB levy expenditure. Further research is needed to understand how best to implement healthy lifestyle programs within the community to optimise coverage, cost-effectiveness, and health outcomes.

From cause and effect to causes and effects

It is now-at least loosely-acknowledged that most health and clinical outcomes are influenced by different interacting causes. Surprisingly, medical research studies are nearly universally designed to study-usually in a binary way-the effect of a single cause. Recent experiences during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic brought to the forefront that most of our challenges in medicine and healthcare deal with systemic, that is, interdependent and interconnected problems. Understanding these problems defy simplistic dichotomous research methodologies. These insights demand a shift in our thinking from 'cause and effect' to 'causes and effects' since this transcends the classical way of Cartesian reductionist thinking. We require a shift to a 'causes and effects' frame so we can choose the research methodology that reflects the relationships between variables of interest-one-to-one, one-to-many, many-to-one or many-to-many. One-to-one (or cause and effect) relationships are amenable to the traditional randomized control trial design, while all others require systemic designs to understand 'causes and effects'. Researchers urgently need to re-evaluate their science models and embrace research designs that allow an exploration of the clinically obvious multiple 'causes and effects' on health and disease. Clinical examples highlight the application of various systemic research methodologies and demonstrate how 'causes and effects' explain the heterogeneity of clinical outcomes. This shift in scientific thinking will allow us to find the necessary personalized or precise clinical interventions that address the underlying reasons for the variability of clinical outcomes and will contribute to greater health equity.

How prices and income influence global patterns in saturated fat intake by age, sex and world region: a cross-sectional analysis of 160 countries

OBJECTIVE

When considering proposals to improve diets, it is important to understand how factors like price and income can affect saturated fat (SF) intake and demand. In this study, we examine and estimate the influence of price and income on intake across 160 countries, by age and sex, and derive sensitivity measures (price elasticities) that vary by age, sex and world region.

DESIGN

We econometrically estimate intake responsiveness to income and prices across countries, accounting for differences by world region, age and sex. Intake data by age, sex and country were obtained from the 2018 Global Dietary Database. These data were then linked to global price data for select food groups from the World Bank International Comparison Programme and income data from the World Development Indicators Databank (World Bank).

RESULTS

Intake differences due to price were highly significant, with a 1% increase in price associated with a lower SF intake (% energy/d) of about 4.3 percentage points. We also find significant differences across regions. In high-income countries, median (age 40) intake reductions were 1.4, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, given a 1% increase in the price of meat, dairy, and oils and fats, respectively. Price elasticities varied with age but not sex. Intake differences due to income were insignificant when regional binary variables were included in the analysis.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among prices and intake within and across countries. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneous effects as they address global nutrition and health challenges.

Attitudes and perceived knowledge of health professionals on the food labelling reform in Israel

OBJECTIVES

To assess the attitudes and perceived knowledge of health professionals regarding the food product judgemental-labelling reform that began in January 2020 in Israel.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTINGS

An online survey among health professionals working in the Israeli health system.

PARTICIPANTS

456 participants (118 physicians, 207 nurses, 131 nutritionists).

RESULTS

Most respondents (89·9 %) were women, 36 % had over 20 years of professional experience. All nutritionists, 96·6 % of physicians and 94·7 % of nurses reported hearing about the reform, and most (88·9 % of nurses, 76·3 % of physicians and 75·6 % of nutritionists) claimed supporting the reform to a great or very great extent. Most respondents believe they should discuss issues related to healthy eating with their patients (91·8 % of nurses, 94·9 % of physicians and all nutritionists), but only about half (47·5 % of physicians and 57·0 % of nurses) reported that they have sufficient knowledge in this field, particularly about food labelling. Almost two-thirds of nutritionists (60·3 %) reported instructing patients to change their food intake according to labelling v. 40·1 % and 34·7 % of nurses and physicians, respectively. Only some respondents felt that they could influence their patients' nutrition habits. Most participants believe that additional regulatory measures should also be used to promote healthy nutrition.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a gap between the desire of physicians and nurses to provide nutritional guidance to the public and their actual knowledge about the labels' meaning as well as their competencies in providing nutrition counselling. When formulating a reform, policymakers should provide clear guidelines about the expectations of implementing it in therapeutic practice.

Structural responses to the obesity epidemic in Latin America: what are the next steps for food and physical activity policies?

Obesity is among the most complex public health challenges, particularly in Latin America, where obesity rates have increased faster than in any other region. Many countries have proposed or enacted comprehensive policies to promote adequate diet and physical activity under a structural framework. We summarize articles discussing the scope and impact of recently implemented obesity-related interventions in the light of a structural response framework. Overall, we find that: (1) market-based food interventions, including taxes on junk food, nutrition labelling, and marketing restrictions, decrease the consumption of targeted foods, (2) programs directly providing healthy foods are effective in reducing obesity, and (3) the construction of public areas for recreation increases the average frequency of physical activity. Although obesity-related interventions in the region have somewhat improved health behaviours, obesity prevalence remains on an upward trend. We discuss some opportunities to continue tackling the obesity epidemic in LATAM under a structural framework.

A multiple case study of pre-diabetes care undertaken by general practice in Aotearoa/New Zealand: de-incentivised and de-prioritised work

BACKGROUND

In Aotearoa/New Zealand (NZ) general practices diagnose and manage pre-diabetes. This work is important as it has the potential to delay or prevent the onset of Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM), reduce NZ's health inequities, and the burden that T2DM places on health care services. However, no study has previously examined how this work routinely occurs in NZ.

METHODS

Two case studies of practices serving ethnically and socio-economically diverse populations, followed by cross-case analysis.

RESULTS

The NZ health care context including funding mechanisms, reporting targets, and the disease centred focus of care, acted together to dis-incentivise and de-prioritise pre-diabetes care in general practices. The social determinants of health differentially influenced patients' ability to engage with and respond to pre-diabetes care, significantly impacting this work. Differing perspectives about the significance of pre-diabetes and gaps in systematic screening practices were identified. Interventions used were inconsistent and lacked comprehensive ongoing support.

CONCLUSIONS

Complex multi-layered factors impact on pre-diabetes care, and many of the barriers cannot be addressed at the general practice level. The practice serving the most disadvantaged population who concurrently have higher rates of pre-diabetes/T2DM were more adversely affected by the barriers identified.

Predicting high health-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease using machine learning and nationwide linked social administrative datasets

OBJECTIVES

To optimise planning of public health services, the impact of high-cost users needs to be considered. However, most of the existing statistical models for costs do not include many clinical and social variables from administrative data that are associated with elevated health care resource use, and are increasingly available. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches and big data to predict high-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

We used nationally representative linked datasets in New Zealand to predict CVD prevalent cases with the most expensive cost belonging to the top quintiles by cost. We compared the performance of four popular machine learning models (L1-regularised logistic regression, classification trees, k-nearest neighbourhood (KNN) and random forest) with the traditional regression models.

RESULTS

The machine learning models had far better accuracy in predicting high health-cost users compared with the logistic models. The harmony score F1 (combining sensitivity and positive predictive value) of the machine learning models ranged from 30.6% to 41.2% (compared with 8.6-9.1% for the logistic models). Previous health costs, income, age, chronic health conditions, deprivation, and receiving a social security benefit were among the most important predictors of the CVD high-cost users.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides additional evidence that machine learning can be used as a tool together with big data in health economics for identification of new risk factors and prediction of high-cost users with CVD. As such, machine learning may potentially assist with health services planning and preventive measures to improve population health while potentially saving healthcare costs.

Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data

AIM

We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings.

RESULTS

Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Māori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

An examination of public support for 35 nutrition interventions across seven countries

BACKGROUND

Public support for evidence-based nutrition interventions can be an important determinant of government willingness to develop and implement such interventions. The aim of this study was to assess support for a broad range of nutrition interventions across seven countries: Australia, Canada, China, India, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Assessed interventions included those relating to food availability, affordability, reformulation, labelling, and promotion.

METHODS

Approximately 1000 adults per country (total n = 7559) completed an online survey assessing support for 35 nutrition interventions/policies. ANOVA analyses were used to identify differences between countries on overall levels of support and by intervention category. Multiple regression analyses assessed demographic and diet-related factors associated with higher levels of support across the total sample and by country.

RESULTS

Substantial levels of public support were found for the assessed interventions across the seven countries and five intervention categories. The highest levels were found in India (Mean across all interventions of 4.16 (standard deviation (SD) 0.65) on a 5-point scale) and the lowest in the United States (Mean = 3.48, SD = 0.83). Support was strongest for interventions involving food labelling (Mean = 4.20, SD = 0.79) and food reformulation (Mean = 4.17, SD = 0.87), and weakest for fiscal interventions (Mean = 3.52, SD = 1.06). Consumer characteristics associated with stronger support were higher self-rated health, higher educational attainment, female sex, older age, and perceptions of consuming a healthy diet.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate substantial support for a large range of nutrition interventions across the assessed countries, and hence governments could potentially be more proactive in developing and implementing such initiatives.

The Effects of Food Taxes and Subsidies on Promoting Healthier Diets in Iranian Households

Background and Aim

Price, as a key driver of food purchasing, has an important role in determining the consumer demand. This study is aimed to estimate the effect of food taxes and subsidies on purchasing patterns of Iranian households (HHs).

Methods

This study was performed in two phases. In phase one, a two-round Delphi study was conducted to determine and prioritize food-related fiscal policies; and in the second phase, using the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), we estimated an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and simulated changes in purchases, nutrient intake, and consumer welfare under six different policy scenarios: (1) 20% subsidy on vegetables, (2) 20% subsidy on fruits, (3) 30% subsidy on legumes, (4) 25% tax on sugar and sweets, (5) 30% tax on sweetened beverages, and (6) 30% tax on hydrogenated oil and animal fats.

Results

The highest calorie reduction was detected in sugar and sweets tax, which has resulted in 949.67, 971.68, and 1,148.03 kilocalories decrease in energy intake per Adult Male Equivalent (AME) in all HHs, low-income HHs, and high-income HHs, respectively. In terms of welfare changes, high-income HHs will experience a lower change in welfare (−0.81 to 0.11%) relative to their income when compared with low-income HHs (−0.88 to 0.28%) due to fiscal policies.

Conclusion

Fiscal policies in Iran can be a potential way to improve dietary choices. The findings provide essential information for decision makers for the implementation of food-related fiscal policies.

Dietary Change and Global Sustainable Development Goals

Food production for human consumption is a leading cause of environmental damage in the world and yet over two billion people suffer from malnutrition. Several studies have presented evidence that changes in dietary patterns across the world can lead to win-win outcomes for environmental and social sustainability and can complement ongoing technological and policy efforts to improve the efficiency of agricultural production. However, the existing evidence have been compiled in “silos” by a large range of researchers across several disciplines using different indicators. The aim of this quantitative review is to bring together the existing knowledge on heterogeneity of current dietary patterns across the world and how a transition toward healthy diets in different countries can aid in progress toward multiple global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We first summarize the nutritional quality, economic cost, and environmental footprint of current diets of over 150 countries using multiple indicators. Next, we review which shifts in dietary patterns across different world regions can help toward achievement of SDG2 (Zero hunger), SDG3 (Good health and wellbeing), SDG 6 (Clean water and sanitation), SDG13 (Climate action), SDG14 (Life below water), and SDG15 (Life on land). Finally, we briefly discuss how to enable the shift toward sustainable dietary patterns and identify the research and data gaps that need to be filled through future efforts. Our analysis reveals that dietary change is necessary in all countries as each one has unique priorities and action items. For regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, increased intake of nutrient dense foods is needed to address deficiency of essential nutrients like folate, potassium, and vitamin A. For North America and Europe, shifting toward more plant-based diets would be healthier and simultaneously reduce the per capita environmental footprints. The results can be useful for policymakers in designing country-specific strategies for adoption of sustainable dietary behaviors and for food industry to ensure the supply of sustainable food items customized with regions' need.

Neighborhood Conditions and Type 2 Diabetes Risk among Latino Adolescents with Obesity in Phoenix

Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) has reached epidemic levels among the pediatric population. Furthermore, disparities in T2D among youth are distributed in a manner that reflects the social inequality between population sub-groups. Here, we investigated the neighborhood determinants of T2D risk among a sample of Latino adolescents with obesity residing in Phoenix, Arizona (n = 133). In doing so we linked together four separate contextual data sources: the American Community Survey, the United States Department of Agriculture Food Access Research Atlas, the Arizona Healthy Community Map, and the National Neighborhood Data Archive to systematically analyze how and which neighborhood characteristics were associated with T2D risk factors as measured by fasting and 2-h glucose following a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Using linear regression models with and without individual/household covariates, we investigated how twenty-two housing and transportation sociodemographic and built and food environment characteristics were independently and jointly associated with T2D risk. The main finding from these analyses was the strong association between the density of fast food restaurants and 2-h glucose values (b = 2.42, p < 0.01). This association was independent of individual, household, and other neighborhood characteristics. Our results contribute to an increasingly robust literature demonstrating the deleterious influence of the neighborhood food environment, especially fast food, for T2D risk among Latino youth.

The benefits and challenges of taxing sugar in a small island state: an interrupted time series analysis

Background

Beverage and food taxes have become a popular ‘best buy’ public health intervention in the global battle to tackle noncommunicable diseases. Though many countries have introduced taxes, mainly targeting products containing sugar, there is great heterogeneity in tax design. For taxes levied as import tariffs, there is limited evidence of effectiveness in changing the price and sale of taxed products, while the evidence base is stronger for excise taxes levied as a fixed amount per quantity of product. This paper examines the effect of the Bermuda Discretionary Foods Tax, which was based on import tariff changes, on retail prices and sales of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and on selected fruits and vegetables that benefited from a tariff reduction.

Methods

We used weekly electronic point-of-sale data from a major food retailer in Bermuda. We assessed historical weekly sales and price data using an interrupted time series design on 2,703 unique products between the dates of January 2018 through January 2020, covering 103 weeks.

Results

By January 2020, the average price per ounce of SSBs increased by 26.0%, while the price of untaxed beverages (including waters and non-added sugar drinks) remained constant. The increasing price of SSBs was the sole observable structural driver of SSB market share, responsible for a decrease in the market share by nearly eight percentage points by the end of the study period. The subsidy on fruits and vegetables was ineffective in changing prices and sales, due to the relatively small 5% import tax decrease.

Conclusions

The tax was largely passed through to consumers. However, several factors mitigated the impact of the tax on the prices paid for SSBs by consumers, including the specific design of the tax, price promotions and consumer responses. The experience of Bermuda provides important lessons for the planning of similar taxes in the future.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-022-01308-x.

Embedding the Community and Individuals in Disease Prevention

The primary prevention of non-communicable diseases is one of the most challenging and exciting aspects of medicine and primary care this century. For cancer, it is an urgent matter in light of the increasing burden of the disease among younger people and the higher frequency of more aggressive forms of the disease for all ages. Most chronic disorders result from the influence of the environment on the expression of genes within an individual. The environment at-large encompasses lifestyle (including nutrition), and chemical/physical and social exposures. In cancer, the interaction between the (epi)genetic makeup of an individual and a multiplicity of environmental risk and protecting factors is considered key to disease onset. Thus, like for precision therapy developed for patients, personalized or precision prevention is envisioned for individuals at risk. Prevention means identifying people at higher risk and intervening to reduce the risk. It requires biological markers of risk and non-aggressive preventive actions for the individual, but it also involves acting on the environment and the community. Social scientists are considering micro (individual/family), meso (community), and macro (country population) levels of care to illustrate that problems and solutions exist on different scales. Ideally, the design of interventions in prevention should integrate all these levels. In this perspective article, using the example of breast cancer, we are discussing challenges and possible solutions for a multidisciplinary community of scientists, primary health care practitioners and citizens to develop a holistic approach of primary prevention, keeping in mind equitable access to care.

Can a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tax on Food also Be Healthy and Equitable? A Systemised Review and Modelling Study from Aotearoa New Zealand

Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits in Aotearoa NZ. We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality-adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Twenty-eight modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., -15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N = 12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N = 19 studies). The "GHG weighted tax on all foods" scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZD 8.8 billion), followed by the tax-fruit and vegetable subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZD 6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions and higher age standardised per capita QALYs for Māori. Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health.

Potential effect of real-world junk food and sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on population health, health system costs and greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand: a modelling study

Poor diet is a major risk factor for excess weight gain and obesity-related diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis and several cancers. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of real-world food and beverage taxes on change in dietary risk factors, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), health system costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as if they had all been implemented in New Zealand (NZ). Ten taxes or tax packages were modelled. A proportional multistate life table model was used to predict resultant QALYs and costs over the remaining lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011, as well as GHG emissions. QALYs ranged from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 10.2 to 15.0; 3% discount rate) per 1000 population for the import tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in Palau to 143 (95% UI 118 to 171) per 1000 population for the excise duties on saturated fat, chocolate and sweets in Denmark, while health expenditure savings ranged from 2011 NZ$245 (95% UI 188 to 310; 2020 US$185) per capita to NZ$2770 (95% UI 2140 to 3480; US$2100) per capita, respectively. The modelled taxes resulted in decreases in GHG emissions from baseline diets, ranging from −0.2% for the tax on SSB in Barbados to −2.8% for Denmark’s tax package. There is strong evidence for the implementation of food and beverage tax packages in NZ or similar high-income settings.

Exploring the Impact of Policies to Improve Geographic and Economic Access to Vegetables among Low-Income, Predominantly Latino Urban Residents: An Agent-Based Model

Modifying the food environment of cities is a promising strategy for improving dietary behaviors, but using traditional empirical methods to test the effectiveness of these strategies remains challenging. We developed an agent-based model to simulate the food environment of Austin, Texas, USA, and to test the impact of different food access policies on vegetable consumption among low-income, predominantly Latino residents. The model was developed and calibrated using empirical data from the FRESH-Austin Study, a natural experiment. We simulated five policy scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2)−(4) expanding geographic and/or economic healthy food access via the Fresh for Less program (i.e., through farm stands, mobile markets, and healthy corner stores); and (5) expanding economic access to vegetables in supermarkets and small grocers. The model predicted that increasing geographic and/or economic access to healthy corner stores will not meaningfully improve vegetable intake, whilst implementing high discounts (>85%) on the cost of vegetables, or jointly increasing geographic and economic access to mobile markets or farm stands, will increase vegetable intake among low-income groups. Implementing discounts at supermarkets and small grocers is also predicted to be an effective policy for increasing vegetable consumption. This work highlights the utility of agent-based modeling for informing food access policies.

Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities

BACKGROUND

Simulation models can be used to quantify the projected health impact of interventions. Quantifying heterogeneity in these impacts, for example by socioeconomic status, is important to understand impacts on health inequalities. We aim to disaggregate one type of Markov macro-simulation model, the proportional multistate lifetable, ensuring that under business-as-usual (BAU) the sum of deaths across disaggregated strata in each time step returns the same as the initial non-disaggregated model. We then demonstrate the application by deprivation quintiles for New Zealand (NZ), for: hypothetical interventions (50% lower all-cause mortality, 50% lower coronary heart disease mortality) and a dietary intervention to substitute 59% of sodium with potassium chloride in the food supply.

METHODS

We developed a disaggregation algorithm that iteratively rescales mortality, incidence and case-fatality rates by time-step of the model to ensure correct total population counts were retained at each step. To demonstrate the algorithm on deprivation quintiles in NZ, we used the following inputs: overall (non-disaggregated) all-cause mortality & morbidity rates, coronary heart disease incidence & case fatality rates; stroke incidence & case fatality rates. We also obtained rate ratios by deprivation for these same measures. Given all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates by deprivation quintile, we derived values for the incidence, case fatality and mortality rates for each quintile, ensuring rate ratios across quintiles and the total population mortality and morbidity rates were returned when averaged across groups. The three interventions were then run on top of these scaled BAU scenarios.

RESULTS

The algorithm exactly disaggregated populations by strata in BAU. The intervention scenario life years and health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained differed slightly when summed over the deprivation quintile compared to the aggregated model, due to the stratified model (appropriately) allowing for differential background mortality rates by strata. Modest differences in health gains (HALYs) resulted from rescaling of sub-population mortality and incidence rates to ensure consistency with the aggregate population.

CONCLUSION

Policy makers ideally need to know the effect of population interventions estimated both overall, and by socioeconomic and other strata. We demonstrate a method and provide code to do this routinely within proportional multistate lifetable simulation models and similar Markov models.

Quality and environmental footprints of diets by socio-economic status in Argentina

Food consumption and production plays a major role on human health and environmental sustainability. In addition, socio-economic status (SES) could be an important determinant on these impacts. Here we investigated the quality and environmental footprints of diets of different SES in Argentina. Dietary data was obtained from a recent national-wide representative survey (21,547 households), and individual intake was estimated by applying the Adult-Male Equivalent (AME) approach. Dietary quality was assessed by comparing the apparent consumption of foods and nutrients with the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality, and applying the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010). The environmental footprints were assessed with a set of six environmental indicators: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, total land occupation, cropland demand, fossil energy use, freshwater consumption and eutrophying emissions. Per capita total expenditure was utilized as an indicator of SES. We found a suboptimal intake of healthy and excess of unhealthy foods and nutrients in all SES, as well as a low AHEI-2010 score (34.7 ± 3.56 over 100). Regarding environmental footprints per AME, we estimated 8.91 ± 2.49 kg CO₂-eq/day for GHG emissions, 9.30 ± 2.93 MJ/day for fossil energy use, 54.2 ± 14.8 m²/day for total land occupation, 7.07 ± 1.90 m²/day for cropland demand, 205 ± 65.3 L/day for freshwater consumption and 19.8 ± 6.43 g PO₄-eq/day for eutrophying emissions. The Argentinian diet was found to be both unhealthy and unsustainable in all socio-economic levels.

In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food: A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality

Taxes and subsidies on foods and nutrients have the potential to promote healthier diets and thereby reduce mortality. In this study, we examine the effects of such policy instruments on Swedish public health. Specifically, we estimate the effects of food and nutrient taxes and subsidies on mortality averted and postponed in Sweden, using both demand system estimations and simulation models. We evaluate different Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms. The VAT is raised on food products that are particularly rich in saturated fat or salt and lowered on fruit and vegetables. Our models predict that an increase in the current VAT of 12% on food, to 25% VAT on products rich in saturated fat plus a 0% VAT on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 1100 deaths (95% CI: -832; -1363) averted or postponed in a year in Sweden, while the combination of a 34.4% VAT on products rich in saturated fat and a -10.4% VAT (i.e. a subsidy) on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 2100 (95% CI: -1572; -2311) deaths averted or postponed corresponding to a 4.8% reduction in diet-related annual death. Most of the deaths averted or delayed from this reform would be deaths from coronary heart disease (-1,148, 95% CI: -728; -1586), followed by stroke -641 (95% CI: -408; -887) and diet-related cancer deaths (-288, 95% CI: -11; -435). We find that health-related food taxes and subsidies improve dietary habits as well as reduce the mortality of the Swedish population. However, the effect of these reforms on different socioeconomic classes and which reforms provide the best value for money, i.e., cost-effectiveness of these reforms needs to be established first before implementation.

Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands.

METHODS

We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products' own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models.

RESULTS

Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p < 0.05) and included values greater than 0.10. Supplementary and complementary effects were particularly found in the dairy, meats and snacks categories. For example, a 1% increase in the price of high saturated fat dairy was associated with a 0.18% (SE 0.06%) increase in purchases of low saturated fat dairy. For name- and home-brand products, significant substitution effects were found in 50% (n = 3) of cases, but only in one case this was above the 0.10 threshold.

CONCLUSIONS/POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Given the relatively low own-price elasticities and the limited substitution and complementary effects, relatively high taxes are needed to substantively increase healthy food purchases at the population level.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study included secondary analyses; the original trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 .

Socio-economic inequalities in dietary intake in Chile: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Understanding the socio-economic inequalities in dietary intake is crucial when addressing the socio-economic gradient in obesity rates and non-communicable diseases. We aimed to systematically assess the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and dietary intake in Chile.

DESIGN

We searched for peer-reviewed and grey literature from inception until 31 December 2019 in PubMed, Scopus, PsycINFO, Web of Sciences and LILACS databases. Observational studies published in English and Spanish, reporting the comparison of at least one dietary factor between at least two groups of different SEP in the general Chilean population, were selected. Two researchers independently conducted data searches, screening and extraction and assessed study quality using an adaptation of the Newcastle Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale.

RESULTS

Twenty-one articles (from eighteen studies) were included. Study quality was considered low, medium and high for 24, 52 and 24 % of articles, respectively. Moderate-to-large associations indicated lower intake of fruit and vegetables, dairy products and fish/seafood and higher pulses consumption among adults of lower SEP. Variable evidence of association was found for energy intake and macronutrients, in both children and adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight some socio-economic inequalities in diets in Chile, evidencing an overall less healthy food consumption among the lower SEP groups. New policies to reduce these inequalities should tackle the unequal distribution of factors affecting healthy eating among the lower SEP groups. These findings also provide important insights for developing strategies to reduce dietary inequalities in Chile and other countries that have undergone similar nutritional transitions.

Estimating Health over Space and Time: A Review of Spatial Microsimulation Applied to Public Health

There is an ongoing demand for data on population health, for reasons of resource allocation, future planning and crucially to address inequalities in health between people and between populations. Although there are regular sources of data at coarse spatial scales, such as countries or large sub-national units such as states, there is often a lack of good quality health data at the local level. One method to develop reliable estimates of population health outcomes is spatial microsimulation, an approach that has its roots in economic studies. Here, we share a review of this method for estimating health in populations, explaining the different approaches available and examples where the method is applied successfully for creating both static and dynamic populations. Recent notable advances in the method that allow uncertainty to be represented are highlighted, along with the evolving approaches to validation that are an ongoing challenge in small-area estimation. The summary serves as a primer for academics new to the area of research as well as an overview for non-academic researchers who consider using these models for policy evaluations.

Unhealthy Diet Pattern Mediates the Disproportionate Prevalence of Obesity among Adults with Socio-Economic Disadvantage: An Australian Representative Cross-Sectional Study

The role of unhealthy dietary pattern in the association between socio-economic factors and obesity is unclear. The aim was to examine the association between socio-economic disadvantage and obesity and to assess mediation effect of unhealthy dietary pattern defined using the Mediterranean diet criteria. The data source was the Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The study sample included 7744 participants aged 18 years and over, 28% of whom had obesity. We used the Australian Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) classification system for categorizing socio-economic disadvantage; calculated the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) using standard criteria; and used measured body mass index to define obesity. We conducted a mediation analysis using log–binomial models to generate the prevalence ratio for obesity and the proportion mediated by the MDS. The most disadvantaged group was associated with higher level of obesity after controlling for covariates (1.40, 95% CI 1.25, 1.56) compared to the least disadvantaged group, and in a dose–response way for each decreasing SEIFA quintile. The relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and obesity was mediated by the MDS (4.0%, 95% CI 1.9, 8.0). Public health interventions should promote healthy dietary patterns, such as the Mediterranean diet, to reduce obesity, especially in communities with high socio-economic disadvantage.

Trend in potassium intake and Na/K ratio in the Italian adult population between the 2008 and 2018 CUORE project surveys

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Low potassium intake, in addition to high sodium, has been associated with higher risk of hypertension and CVD. The Study assessed habitual potassium intake and sodium/potassium ratio of the Italian adult population from 2008 to 2012 to 2018-2019 based on 24-h urine collection, in the framework of the CUORE Project/MINISAL-GIRCSI/MENO SALE PIU' SALUTE national surveys.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were from cross-sectional surveys of randomly selected age-and-sex stratified samples of resident persons aged 35-74 years in 10 (out of 20) Italian regions. Urinary electrolyte and creatinine measurements were performed in a central laboratory. Analyses considered 942 men and 916 women, examined in 2008-2012, and 967 men and 1010 women, examined in 2018-2019. In 2008-2012, the age-standardized mean of potassium intake (urinary potassium accounts for 70% of potassium intake) was 3147 mg (95% CI 3086-3208) in men and 2784 mg (2727-2841) in women, whereas in 2018-2019, it was 3043 mg (2968-3118) and 2561 mg (2508-2614) respectively. In 2008-2012, age-adjusted prevalence of persons with an adequate potassium intake (i.e. ≥ 3510 mg/day) was 31% (95% CI 28-34%) for men and 18% (16-21%) for women; in 2018-2019, it was 26% (23-29%) and 12% (10-14%) respectively. The sodium/potassium ratio significantly decreased both in men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

The average daily potassium intake of the Italian general adult population remains lower than the WHO and EFSA recommended level. These results suggest the need of a revision to strengthen initiatives for the promotion of an adequate potassium intake at the population level.

Ensuring the right to food for indigenous children: a case study of stakeholder perspectives on policy options to ensure the rights of tamariki Māori to healthy food

BACKGROUND

The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child confirms a child's right to adequate food, and to the highest attainable standard of health. For indigenous children, these rights are also recognised in the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. However, Indigenous children endure higher rates of obesity and related health conditions than non-indigenous children, including in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). For indigenous tamariki (Māori children) in NZ, high levels of obesity are interconnected with high rates of food insecurity. Therefore there is a need for action. This study aimed to investigate policy options that would safeguard the rights of indigenous children to healthy food. We explored with key stakeholder's policy options to ensure the rights of indigenous children to healthy food, through a case study of the rights of tamariki.

METHODS

Interviews were conducted with 15 key stakeholders, with experience in research, development or delivery of policies to safeguard the rights of tamariki to healthy food. Iterative thematic analysis of the transcripts identified both deductive themes informed by Kaupapa Māori theory and literature on rights-based approaches and inductive themes from the interviews.

RESULTS

The analysis suggests that to ensure the right to adequate food and to healthy food availability for tamariki, there needs to be: a comprehensive policy response that supports children's rights; an end to child poverty; food provision and food policy in schools; local government policy to promote healthy food availability; and stronger Māori voices and values in decision-making.

CONCLUSIONS

The right to food for indigenous children, is linked to political and economic systems that are an outcome of colonisation. A decolonising approach where Māori voices and values are central within NZ policies and policy-making processes is needed. Given the importance of food to health, a broad policy approach from the NZ government to ensure the right to adequate food is urgent. This includes economic policies to end child poverty and specific strategies such as food provision and food policy in schools. The role of Iwi (tribes) and local governments needs to be further explored if we are to improve the right to adequate food within regions of NZ.

The Educational Gradient in Intake of Energy and Macronutrients in the General Adult and Elderly Population: The Tromsø Study 2015-2016

Worldwide, there are socioeconomic inequalities in health and diet. We studied the relationship between education and nutrient intake in 11,302 women and men aged 40-96 years who participated in the seventh survey of the population-based Tromsø Study (2015-2016), Norway (attendance 65%). Diet was assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. We examined the association between education and intake of total energy and macronutrients by sex using linear and logistic regression models adjusted for age, body mass index, leisure time physical activity and smoking. The intake of macronutrients was compared with the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2012. There was a positive association between education and intake of fiber and alcohol, and a negative association between education and intake of total carbohydrates and added sugar in both women and men. Participants with long tertiary education had higher odds of being compliant with the recommended intake of fiber and protein and the maximum recommended level for added sugar and had lower odds of being compliant with the recommended intake of total carbohydrates and the maximum recommended level for alcohol, compared to participants with primary education. Overall, we found that participants with higher education were more compliant with the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2012.

Nutritional and Environmental Assessment of Increasing the Content of Fruit and Vegetables in the UK Diet

Despite the interest in increasing the consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, the total average consumption is still below the recommended intakes. Evidence indicates that the UK government’s “five-a-day” policy has not been effective in reaching its goal. The results of fiscal policies (e.g., subsidies) to increase fruit and vegetable consumption are uncertain due to complex substitutions done by consumers amongst overall food choice. The goal of the present study was to estimate the prices (i.e., shadow prices) at which consumers can increase their intake of fruits and vegetables by 10% (higher than that achieved by the “five-a-day” policy) without changing the overall taste of the diet (utility). We estimated the ex-ante effect of increasing the UK’s fruit and vegetable consumption by 10% on household nutrient purchases and greenhouse gas emissions. The required changes in prices were estimated by extending the model of consumer behaviour under rationing. The model combines consumption data, demand elasticities estimated from home scan data, and nutrient coefficients for 20 foods consumed in the UK. Our results suggest that to increase vegetable and fruit consumption by 10% (under the current preferences), their prices should decline by 21% and 13%, respectively. However, there is a trade-off between nutrition and environmental goals; total average household caloric purchase declined by 11 kcal, but greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.7 CO2-eq kg/kg of food.

Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040

INTRODUCTION

As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.

RESULTS

Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.

Consumption of Foods Derived from Subsidized Crops Remains Associated with Cardiometabolic Risk: An Update on the Evidence Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2014

In this study, we examined the associations between the consumption of foods derived from crops subsidized under the 2008 United States (US) Farm Bill and cardiometabolic risk factors and whether the magnitude of these associations has changed since the 2002 US Farm Bill. Four federal databases were used to estimate daily consumption of the top seven subsidized commodities (corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, sorghum, dairy, and livestock) and to calculate a subsidy score (0-1 scale) for Americans' daily dietary intake during 2009-2014, with a higher score indicative of a higher proportion of the diet derived from subsidized commodities. The cardiometabolic risk factors included obesity, abdominal adiposity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and dysglycemia. Linear and logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, the poverty-income ratio, the smoking status, educational attainment, physical activity, and daily calorie intake. During 2009-2014, adults with the highest subsidy score had higher probabilities of obesity, abdominal adiposity, and dysglycemia compared to the lowest subsidy score. After the 2002 Farm Bill (measured using data from 2001-2006), the subsidy score decreased from 56% to 50% and associations between consuming a highly-subsidized diet and dysglycemia did not change (p = 0.54), whereas associations with obesity (p = 0.004) and abdominal adiposity (p = 0.002) significantly attenuated by more than half. The proportion of calories derived from subsidized food commodities continues to be associated with adverse cardiometabolic risk factors, though the relationship with obesity and abdominal adiposity has weakened in recent years.

Creating Healthy Change in the Preconception Period for Women with Overweight or Obesity: A Qualitative Study Using the Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills Model

Worldwide, half of women begin a pregnancy with overweight or obesity, which increases the risk of pregnancy and birth complications and adversely affects the lifelong health of the offspring. In order for metabolic changes to influence the gestational environment, research suggests that weight loss should take place before conception. This study aimed to understand women’s emotional and social contexts, knowledge, motivations, skills and self-efficacy in making healthy change. Semi-structured interviews conducted with twenty-three women with overweight or obesity, informed by the Information–Motivation–Behavioural Skills (IMB) model, were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Information-related themes identified included poor health risk knowledge, healthy food decisions and health versus convenience. The Motivation themes comprised taking responsibility, flexible options, social expectations, interpersonal challenges and accountability. Behavioural Skills entailed themes such as the mental battle, time management, self-care and inspiration. An environmental factor was identified in affordability—limiting access to healthier alternatives. Women wanted simple, flexible options that considered family commitments, time and budgetary constraints. Unprompted, several mentioned the importance of psychological support in managing setbacks, stress and maintaining motivation. Strategies for enhancing self-efficacy and motivational support are required to enable longstanding health behaviour change. Findings will inform intervention mapping development of an eHealth solution for women preconception.