Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated

Tropical forest degradation from selective logging, fire and edge effects is a major driver of carbon and biodiversity loss1-3, with annual rates comparable to those of deforestation4. However, its actual extent and long-term impacts remain uncertain at global tropical scale5. Here we quantify the magnitude and persistence of multiple types of degradation on forest structure by combining satellite remote sensing data on pantropical moist forest cover changes4 with estimates of canopy height and biomass from spaceborne6 light detection and ranging (LiDAR). We estimate that forest height decreases owing to selective logging and fire by 15% and 50%, respectively, with low rates of recovery even after 20 years. Agriculture and road expansion trigger a 20% to 30% reduction in canopy height and biomass at the forest edge, with persistent effects being measurable up to 1.5 km inside the forest. Edge effects encroach on 18% (approximately 206 Mha) of the remaining tropical moist forests, an area more than 200% larger than previously estimated7. Finally, degraded forests with more than 50% canopy loss are significantly more vulnerable to subsequent deforestation. Collectively, our findings call for greater efforts to prevent degradation and protect already degraded forests to meet the conservation pledges made at recent United Nations Climate Change and Biodiversity conferences.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Kudus K, Saleh MN. Tropical Forests Stand Recovery 30-year After Selectively Logged in Peninsular Malaysia

This article analysed the 25–30 years of growth of dipterocarps forests that were logged under the Selective Management System (SMS) at three sites in Peninsular Malaysia to understand how management regimes affected forest stem density and basal area. The management regimes were (1) unlogged, (2) moderately logged forests that logged all dipterocarps ≥ 65 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) and all non-dipterocarps ≥ 60 cm dbh, and (3) intensely logged forests that logged all dipterocarps ≥ 50 cm dbh and non-dipterocarps ≥ 45 cm dbh. The intensely logged regime is similar to the SMS practices in Peninsular Malaysia. This result showed that one-year post-logging, there was no difference in the total stem density and basal area between forests logged according to the two management regimes. Forest stem density decreased over time in all management regimes, significantly greater in unlogged forests (-15.1 stems/ha/yr, confidence interval (CI): -16.9 to -13.3). This decline in stem density reflected that mortality exceeded recruitment in all management regimes. Despite the consistent decline of forest stem density, the basal area increased over time, and the rate of increase in the intensely logged forest (0.22 m2 /ha/yr, CI: 0.19 to 0.25) was significantly greater than the other management regimes. Our study showed that 30 years post-logging, the effect of selective logging remained evident. Both logged forest stem density and the basal area did not recover to that of unlogged forests, indicating the importance of enrichment planting and extending the cutting cycles beyond 30 years for the sustainability of dipterocarps forests.

Lianas increase lightning-caused disturbance severity in a tropical forest

Lightning is an important agent of plant mortality and disturbance in forests. Lightning-caused disturbance is highly variable in terms of its area of effect and disturbance severity (i.e. tree damage and death), but we do not know how this variation is influenced by forest structure and plant composition. We used a novel lightning detection system to quantify how lianas influenced the severity and spatial extent (i.e. area) of lightning disturbance using 78 lightning strikes in central Panama. The local density of lianas (measured as liana basal area) was positively associated with the number of trees killed and damaged by lightning, and patterns of plant damage indicated that this occurred because lianas facilitated more electrical connections from large to small trees. Liana presence, however, did not increase the area of the disturbance. Thus, lianas increased the severity of lightning disturbance by facilitating damage to additional trees without influencing the footprint of the disturbance. These findings indicate that lianas spread electricity to damage and kill understory trees that otherwise would survive a strike. As liana abundance increases in tropical forests, their negative effects on tree survival with respect to the severity of lightning-related tree damage and death are likely to increase.

The spatial and temporal distribution of China’s forest carbon

Introduction

China’s forests have sequestrated a significant amount of carbon over the past two decades. However, it is not clear whether China’s forests will be able to continue to have as much carbon sequestration potential capacity in the future.

Methods

In order to research China’s forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential capacities at spatial and temporal scales, we built a digital forest model for each province of China using the data from The China Forest Resources Report (2014– 2018) and calculated the carbon storage capacity and sequestration potential capacity of each province with the current management practices without considering natural successions.

Results

The results showed that the current forest carbon storage is 10.0 Pg C, and the carbon sequestration potential in the next 40 years (from year 2019 to 2058) will be 5.04 Pg C. Since immature forests account for the majority of current forests, the carbon sequestration capacity of the forest was also high (0.202 Pg C year−1). However, the forest carbon storage reached the maximum with the increase of stand maturity. At this time, if scenarios such as afforestation and reforestation, human and natural disturbances, and natural succession are not considered, the carbon sequestration capacity of forests will continue to decrease. After 90 years, all stands will develop into mature and over-mature forests, and the forest carbon sequestration capacity is 0.008 Pg year−1; and the carbon sequestration rate is ~4% of what it is nowadays. The change trend of forest carbon in each province is consistent with that of the country. In addition, considering the large forest coverage area in China, the differences in tree species and growing conditions, the forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacities among provinces were different. The growth rate of carbon density in high-latitude provinces (such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia) was lower than that in the south (Guangdong, Guangxi, or Hunan), but the forest carbon potential was higher.

Discussion

Planning and implementing targeted forest management strategies is the key to increasing forest carbon storage and extending the service time of forest carbon sinks in provinces. In order to reach the national carbon neutrality goals, we recommend that each province have an informative strategic forest management plan.

The road to recovery: a synthesis of outcomes from ecosystem restoration in tropical and sub-tropical Asian forests

Current policy is driving renewed impetus to restore forests to return ecological function, protect species, sequester carbon and secure livelihoods. Here we assess the contribution of tree planting to ecosystem restoration in tropical and sub-tropical Asia; we synthesize evidence on mortality and growth of planted trees at 176 sites and assess structural and biodiversity recovery of co-located actively restored and naturally regenerating forest plots. Mean mortality of planted trees was 18% 1 year after planting, increasing to 44% after 5 years. Mortality varied strongly by site and was typically ca 20% higher in open areas than degraded forest, with height at planting positively affecting survival. Size-standardized growth rates were negatively related to species-level wood density in degraded forest and plantations enrichment settings. Based on community-level data from 11 landscapes, active restoration resulted in faster accumulation of tree basal area and structural properties were closer to old-growth reference sites, relative to natural regeneration, but tree species richness did not differ. High variability in outcomes across sites indicates that planting for restoration is potentially rewarding but risky and context-dependent. Restoration projects must prepare for and manage commonly occurring challenges and align with efforts to protect and reconnect remaining forest areas. The abstract of this article is available in Bahasa Indonesia in the electronic supplementary material. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Controlling synchronization of gamma oscillations by astrocytic modulation in a model hippocampal neural network

Recent in vitro and in vivo experiments demonstrate that astrocytes participate in the maintenance of cortical gamma oscillations and recognition memory. However, the mathematical understanding of the underlying dynamical mechanisms remains largely incomplete. Here we investigate how the interplay of slow modulatory astrocytic signaling with fast synaptic transmission controls coherent oscillations in the network of hippocampal interneurons that receive inputs from pyramidal cells. We show that the astrocytic regulation of signal transmission between neurons improves the firing synchrony and extends the region of coherent oscillations in the biologically relevant values of synaptic conductance. Astrocyte-mediated potentiation of inhibitory synaptic transmission markedly enhances the coherence of network oscillations over a broad range of model parameters. Astrocytic regulation of excitatory synaptic input improves the robustness of interneuron network gamma oscillations induced by physiologically relevant excitatory model drive. These findings suggest a mechanism, by which the astrocytes become involved in cognitive function and information processing through modulating fast neural network dynamics.

Forest fragmentation impacts the seasonality of Amazonian evergreen canopies

Predictions of the magnitude and timing of leaf phenology in Amazonian forests remain highly controversial. Here, we use terrestrial LiDAR surveys every two weeks spanning wet and dry seasons in Central Amazonia to show that plant phenology varies strongly across vertical strata in old-growth forests, but is sensitive to disturbances arising from forest fragmentation. In combination with continuous microclimate measurements, we find that when maximum daily temperatures reached 35 °C in the latter part of the dry season, the upper canopy of large trees in undisturbed forests lost plant material. In contrast, the understory greened up with increased light availability driven by the upper canopy loss, alongside increases in solar radiation, even during periods of drier soil and atmospheric conditions. However, persistently high temperatures in forest edges exacerbated the upper canopy losses of large trees throughout the dry season, whereas the understory in these light-rich environments was less dependent on the altered upper canopy structure. Our findings reveal a strong influence of edge effects on phenological controls in wet forests of Central Amazonia.

Even evergreen tropical forests can have seasonal dynamics, which may be sensitive to disturbance. Here, the authors combine high-resolution remote sensing observations and microclimate data to show that forest fragmentation impacts canopy phenology dynamics in the Amazon forest.

Aboveground biomass increments over 26 years (1993-2019) in an old-growth cool-temperate forest in northern Japan

Assessing long-term changes in the biomass of old-growth forests with consideration of climate effects is essential for understanding forest ecosystem functions under a changing climate. Long-term biomass changes are the result of accumulated short-term changes, which can be affected by endogenous processes such as gap filling in small-scale canopy openings. Here, we used 26 years (1993-2019) of repeated tree census data in an old-growth, cool-temperate, mixed deciduous forest that contains three topographic units (riparian, denuded slope, and terrace) in northern Japan to document decadal changes in aboveground biomass (AGB) and their processes in relation to endogenous processes and climatic factors. AGB increased steadily over the 26 years in all topographic units, but different tree species contributed to the increase among the topographic units. AGB gain within each topographic unit exceeded AGB loss via tree mortality in most of the measurement periods despite substantial temporal variation in AGB loss. At the local scale, variations in AGB gain were partially explained by compensating growth of trees around canopy gaps. Climate affected the local-scale AGB gain: the gain was larger in the measurement periods with higher mean air temperature during the current summer but smaller in those with higher mean air temperature during the previous autumn, synchronously in all topographic units. The influences of decadal summer and autumn warming on AGB growth appeared to be counteracting, suggesting that the observed steady AGB increase in KRRF is not fully explained by the warming. Future studies should consider global and regional environmental factors such as elevated CO₂ concentrations and nitrogen deposition, and include cool-temperate forests with a broader temperature range to improve our understanding on biomass accumulation in this type of forests under climate change.

Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

BACKGROUND

Understanding how warming influence above-ground biomass in the world's forests is necessary for quantifying future global carbon budgets. A climate-driven decrease in future carbon stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. Here we evaluate the impact of rising air temperature on the future above-ground biomass of old-growth forests using a model that explains well the observed current variation in the above-ground biomass over the humid lowland areas of the world based on monthly air temperature.

RESULTS

Applying this model to the monthly air temperature data for 1970-2000 and monthly air temperature projections for 2081-2100, we found that the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests is expected to decrease everywhere in the humid lowland areas except boreal regions. The temperature-driven decrease is estimated at 41% in the tropics and at 29% globally.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that rising temperatures impact the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests dramatically. However, this impact could be mitigated by fertilization effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition.

Accelerated forest fragmentation leads to critical increase in tropical forest edge area

Large areas of tropical forests have been lost through deforestation, resulting in fragmented forest landscapes. However, the dynamics of forest fragmentation are still unknown, especially the critical forest edge areas, which are sources of carbon emissions due to increased tree mortality. We analyzed the changes in forest fragmentation for the entire tropics using high-resolution forest cover maps. We found that forest edge area increased from 27 to 31% of the total forest area in just 10 years, with the largest increase in Africa. The number of forest fragments increased by 20 million with consequences for connectivity of tropical landscapes. Simulations suggest that ongoing deforestation will further accelerate forest fragmentation. By 2100, 50% of tropical forest area will be at the forest edge, causing additional carbon emissions of up to 500 million MT carbon per year. Thus, efforts to limit fragmentation in the world’s tropical forests are important for climate change mitigation.

Living on the edge: A continental-scale assessment of forest vulnerability to drought

Globally, forests are facing an increasing risk of mass tree mortality events associated with extreme droughts and higher temperatures. Hydraulic dysfunction is considered a key mechanism of drought-triggered dieback. By leveraging the climate breadth of the Australian landscape and a national network of research sites (Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network), we conducted a continental-scale study of physiological and hydraulic traits of 33 native tree species from contrasting environments to disentangle the complexities of plant response to drought across communities. We found strong relationships between key plant hydraulic traits and site aridity. Leaf turgor loss point and xylem embolism resistance were correlated with minimum water potential experienced by each species. Across the data set, there was a strong coordination between hydraulic traits, including those linked to hydraulic safety, stomatal regulation and the cost of carbon investment into woody tissue. These results illustrate that aridity has acted as a strong selective pressure, shaping hydraulic traits of tree species across the Australian landscape. Hydraulic safety margins were constrained across sites, with species from wetter sites tending to have smaller safety margin compared with species at drier sites, suggesting trees are operating close to their hydraulic thresholds and forest biomes across the spectrum may be susceptible to shifts in climate that result in the intensification of drought.

Assessing the Contrasting Effects of the Exceptional 2015 Drought on the Carbon Dynamics in Two Norway Spruce Forest Ecosystems

The occurrence of extreme drought poses a severe threat to forest ecosystems and reduces their capability to sequester carbon dioxide. This study analysed the impacts of a central European summer drought in 2015 on gross primary productivity (GPP) at two Norway spruce forest sites representing two contrasting climatic conditions—cold and humid climate at Bílý Kříž (CZ-BK1) vs. moderately warm and dry climate at Rájec (CZ-RAJ). The comparative analyses of GPP was based on a three-year eddy covariance dataset, where 2014 and 2016 represented years with normal conditions, while 2015 was characterized by dry conditions. A significant decline in the forest GPP was found during the dry year of 2015, reaching 14% and 6% at CZ-BK1 and CZ-RAJ, respectively. The reduction in GPP coincided with high ecosystem respiration (Reco) during the dry year period, especially during July and August, when several heat waves hit the region. Additional analyses of GPP decline during the dry year period suggested that a vapour pressure deficit played a more important role than the soil volumetric water content at both investigated sites, highlighting the often neglected importance of considering the species hydraulic strategy (isohydric vs. anisohydric) in drought impact assessments. The study indicates the high vulnerability of the Norway spruce forest to drought stress, especially at sites with precipitation equal or smaller than the atmospheric evaporative demand. Since central Europe is currently experiencing large-scale dieback of Norway spruce forests in lowlands and uplands (such as for CZ-RAJ conditions), the findings of this study may help to quantitatively assess the fate of these widespread cultures under future climate projections, and may help to delimitate the areas of their sustainable production.

Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

Mature Andean forests as globally important carbon sinks and future carbon refuges

It is largely unknown how South America's Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha^-1 y^-1) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y^-1. Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change.

Recovery of logged forest fragments in a human-modified tropical landscape during the 2015-16 El Niño

The past 40 years in Southeast Asia have seen about 50% of lowland rainforests converted to oil palm and other plantations, and much of the remaining forest heavily logged. Little is known about how fragmentation influences recovery and whether climate change will hamper restoration. Here, we use repeat airborne LiDAR surveys spanning the hot and dry 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event to measure canopy height growth across 3,300 ha of regenerating tropical forests spanning a logging intensity gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We show that the drought led to increased leaf shedding and branch fall. Short forest, regenerating after heavy logging, continued to grow despite higher evaporative demand, except when it was located close to oil palm plantations. Edge effects from the plantations extended over 300 metres into the forests. Forest growth on hilltops and slopes was particularly impacted by the combination of fragmentation and drought, but even riparian forests located within 40 m of oil palm plantations lost canopy height during the drought. Our results suggest that small patches of logged forest within plantation landscapes will be slow to recover, particularly as ENSO events are becoming more frequent.

It is unclear whether tropical forest fragments within plantation landscapes are resilient to drought. Here the authors analyse LiDAR and ground-based data from the 2015-16 El Niño event across a logging intensity gradient in Borneo. Although regenerating forests continued to grow, canopy height near oil palm plantations decreased, and a strong edge effect extended up to at least 300 m away.

Long-term (1990-2019) monitoring of forest cover changes in the humid tropics

Accurate characterization of tropical moist forest changes is needed to support conservation policies and to quantify their contribution to global carbon fluxes more effectively. We document, at pantropical scale, the extent and changes (degradation, deforestation, and recovery) of these forests over the past three decades. We estimate that 17% of tropical moist forests have disappeared since 1990 with a remaining area of 1071 million hectares in 2019, from which 10% are degraded. Our study underlines the importance of the degradation process in these ecosystems, in particular, as a precursor of deforestation, and in the recent increase in tropical moist forest disturbances (natural and anthropogenic degradation or deforestation). Without a reduction of the present disturbance rates, undisturbed forests will disappear entirely in large tropical humid regions by 2050. Our study suggests that reinforcing actions are needed to prevent the initial degradation that leads to forest clearance in 45% of the cases.

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂ ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂ ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂ ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂ ] (iCO₂ ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂ , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Global tree-ring analysis reveals rapid decrease in tropical tree longevity with temperature

Forests are the largest terrestrial biomass pool, with over half of this biomass stored in the highly productive tropical lowland forests. The future evolution of forest biomass depends critically on the response of tree longevity and growth rates to future climate. We present an analysis of the variation in tree longevity and growth rate using tree-ring data of 3,343 populations and 438 tree species and assess how climate controls growth and tree longevity across world biomes. Tropical trees grow, on average, two times faster compared to trees from temperate and boreal biomes and live significantly shorter, on average (186 ± 138 y compared to 322 ± 201 y outside the tropics). At the global scale, growth rates and longevity covary strongly with temperature. Within the warm tropical lowlands, where broadleaf species dominate the vegetation, we find consistent decreases in tree longevity with increasing aridity, as well as a pronounced reduction in longevity above mean annual temperatures of 25.4 °C. These independent effects of temperature and water availability on tree longevity in the tropics are consistent with theoretical predictions of increases in evaporative demands at the leaf level under a warmer and drier climate and could explain observed increases in tree mortality in tropical forests, including the Amazon, and shifts in forest composition in western Africa. Our results suggest that conditions supporting only lower tree longevity in the tropical lowlands are likely to expand under future drier and especially warmer climates.

Long-term droughts may drive drier tropical forests towards increased functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogeneity

Tropical ecosystems adapted to high water availability may be highly impacted by climatic changes that increase soil and atmospheric moisture deficits. Many tropical regions are experiencing significant changes in climatic conditions, which may induce strong shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of forest communities. However, it remains unclear if and to what extent tropical forests are shifting in these facets of diversity along climatic gradients in response to climate change. Here, we show that changes in climate affected all three facets of diversity in West Africa in recent decades. Taxonomic and functional diversity increased in wetter forests but tended to decrease in forests with drier climate. Phylogenetic diversity showed a large decrease along a wet-dry climatic gradient. Notably, we find that all three facets of diversity tended to be higher in wetter forests. Drier forests showed functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogenization. Understanding how different facets of diversity respond to a changing environment across climatic gradients is essential for effective long-term conservation of tropical forest ecosystems.

Different aspects of biodiversity may not necessarily converge in their response to climate change. Here, the authors investigate 25-year shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of tropical forests along a spatial climate gradient in West Africa, showing that drier forests are less stable than wetter forests.

Comparison of forest above-ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation-based estimates

Gaps in our current understanding and quantification of biomass carbon stocks, particularly in tropics, lead to large uncertainty in future projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. We use the recently published GlobBiomass data set of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) density for the year 2010, obtained from multiple remote sensing and in situ observations at 100 m spatial resolution to evaluate AGB estimated by nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The global total forest AGB of the nine DGVMs is 365 ± 66 Pg C, the spread corresponding to the standard deviation between models, compared to 275 Pg C with an uncertainty of ~13.5% from GlobBiomass. Model-data discrepancy in total forest AGB can be attributed to their discrepancies in the AGB density and/or forest area. While DGVMs represent the global spatial gradients of AGB density reasonably well, they only have modest ability to reproduce the regional spatial gradients of AGB density at scales below 1000 km. The 95th percentile of AGB density (AGB₉₅ ) in tropics can be considered as the potential maximum of AGB density which can be reached for a given annual precipitation. GlobBiomass data show local deficits of AGB density compared to the AGB₉₅ , particularly in transitional and/or wet regions in tropics. We hypothesize that local human disturbances cause more AGB density deficits from GlobBiomass than from DGVMs, which rarely represent human disturbances. We then analyse empirical relationships between AGB density deficits and forest cover changes, population density, burned areas and livestock density. Regression analysis indicated that more than 40% of the spatial variance of AGB density deficits in South America and Africa can be explained; in Southeast Asia, these factors explain only ~25%. This result suggests TRENDY v6 DGVMs tend to underestimate biomass loss from diverse and widespread anthropogenic disturbances, and as a result overestimate turnover time in AGB.

Carbon declines along tropical forest edges correspond to heterogeneous effects on canopy structure and function

Nearly 20% of tropical forests are within 100 m of a nonforest edge, a consequence of rapid deforestation for agriculture. Despite widespread conversion, roughly 1.2 billion ha of tropical forest remain, constituting the largest terrestrial component of the global carbon budget. Effects of deforestation on carbon dynamics in remnant forests, and spatial variation in underlying changes in structure and function at the plant scale, remain highly uncertain. Using airborne imaging spectroscopy and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, we mapped and quantified changes in forest structure and foliar characteristics along forest/oil palm boundaries in Malaysian Borneo to understand spatial and temporal variation in the influence of edges on aboveground carbon and associated changes in ecosystem structure and function. We uncovered declines in aboveground carbon averaging 22% along edges that extended over 100 m into the forest. Aboveground carbon losses were correlated with significant reductions in canopy height and leaf mass per area and increased foliar phosphorus, three plant traits related to light capture and growth. Carbon declines amplified with edge age. Our results indicate that carbon losses along forest edges can arise from multiple, distinct effects on canopy structure and function that vary with edge age and environmental conditions, pointing to a need for consideration of differences in ecosystem sensitivity when developing land-use and conservation strategies. Our findings reveal that, although edge effects on ecosystem structure and function vary, forests neighboring agricultural plantations are consistently vulnerable to long-lasting negative effects on fundamental ecosystem characteristics controlling primary productivity and carbon storage.

Recurrence Analysis of Vegetation Indices for Highlighting the Ecosystem Response to Drought Events: An Application to the Amazon Forest

Forests are important in sequestering CO2 and therefore play a significant role in climate change. However, the CO2 cycle is conditioned by drought events that alter the rate of photosynthesis, which is the principal physiological action of plants in transforming CO2 into biological energy. This study applied recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to describe the evolution of photosynthesis-related indices to highlight disturbance alterations produced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, years 2005 and 2010) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, year 2015) in the Amazon forest. The analysis was carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images to build time series of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the normalized difference water index (NDWI), and the land surface temperature (LST) covering the period 2001–2018. The results did not show significant variations produced by AMO throughout the study area, while a disruption due to the global warming phase linked to the extreme ENSO event occurred, and the forest was able to recover. In addition, spatial differences in the response of the forest to the ENSO event were found. These findings show that the application of RQA to the time series of vegetation indices supports the evaluation of the forest ecosystem response to disruptive events. This approach provides information on the capacity of the forest to recover after a disruptive event and, therefore is useful to estimate the resilience of this particular ecosystem.

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large-scale forest datasets

Tropical forest responses to climate and atmospheric change are critical to the future of the global carbon budget. Recent studies have reported increases in estimated above-ground biomass (EAGB) stocks, productivity, and mortality in old-growth tropical forests. These increases could reflect a shift in forest functioning due to global change and/or long-lasting recovery from past disturbance. We introduce a novel approach to disentangle the relative contributions of these mechanisms by decomposing changes in whole-plot biomass fluxes into contributions from changes in the distribution of gap-successional stages and changes in fluxes for a given stage. Using 30 years of forest dynamic data at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we investigated temporal variation in EAGB fluxes as a function of initial EAGB (EAGB_i ) in 10 × 10 m quadrats. Productivity and mortality fluxes both increased strongly with initial quadrat EAGB. The distribution of EAGB (and thus EAGB_i ) across quadrats hardly varied over 30 years (and seven censuses). EAGB fluxes as a function of EAGB_i varied largely and significantly among census intervals, with notably higher productivity in 1985-1990 associated with recovery from the 1982-1983 El Niño event. Variation in whole-plot fluxes among census intervals was explained overwhelmingly by variation in fluxes as a function of EAGB_i , with essentially no contribution from changes in EAGB_i distributions. The high observed temporal variation in productivity and mortality suggests that this forest is very sensitive to climate variability. There was no consistent long-term trend in productivity, mortality, or biomass in this forest over 30 years, although the temporal variability in productivity and mortality was so strong that it could well mask a substantial trend. Accurate prediction of future tropical forest carbon budgets will require accounting for disturbance-recovery dynamics and understanding temporal variability in productivity and mortality.

The fate of tropical forest fragments

Tropical forest fragmentation results in habitat and biodiversity loss and increased carbon emissions. Here, we link an increased likelihood of tropical forest loss to decreasing fragment size, particularly in primary forests. The relationship holds for protected areas, albeit with half the rate of loss compared with all fragments. The fact that disturbance increases as primary forest fragment size decreases reflects higher land use pressures and improved access for resource extraction and/or conversion in smaller fragments. Large remaining forest fragments are found in the Amazon and Congo Basins and Insular Southeast Asia, with the majority of large extent/low loss fragments located in the Amazon. Tropical areas without large fragments, including Central America, West Africa, and mainland Southeast Asia, have higher loss within and outside of protected areas. Results illustrate the need for rigorous land use planning, management, and enforcement in maintaining large tropical forest fragments and restoring regions of advanced fragmentation.

Estimating aboveground net biomass change for tropical and subtropical forests: Refinement of IPCC default rates using forest plot data

As countries advance in greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for climate change mitigation, consistent estimates of aboveground net biomass change (∆AGB) are needed. Countries with limited forest monitoring capabilities in the tropics and subtropics rely on IPCC 2006 default ∆AGB rates, which are values per ecological zone, per continent. Similarly, research into forest biomass change at a large scale also makes use of these rates. IPCC 2006 default rates come from a handful of studies, provide no uncertainty indications and do not distinguish between older secondary forests and old-growth forests. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we incorporate ∆AGB data available from 2006 onwards, comprising 176 chronosequences in secondary forests and 536 permanent plots in old-growth and managed/logged forests located in 42 countries in Africa, North and South America and Asia. We generated ∆AGB rate estimates for younger secondary forests (≤20 years), older secondary forests (>20 years and up to 100 years) and old-growth forests, and accounted for uncertainties in our estimates. In tropical rainforests, for which data availability was the highest, our ∆AGB rate estimates ranged from 3.4 (Asia) to 7.6 (Africa) Mg ha^-1  year^-1 in younger secondary forests, from 2.3 (North and South America) to 3.5 (Africa) Mg ha^-1  year^-1 in older secondary forests, and 0.7 (Asia) to 1.3 (Africa) Mg ha^-1  year^-1 in old-growth forests. We provide a rigorous and traceable refinement of the IPCC 2006 default rates in tropical and subtropical ecological zones, and identify which areas require more research on ∆AGB. In this respect, this study should be considered as an important step towards quantifying the role of tropical and subtropical forests as carbon sinks with higher accuracy; our new rates can be used for large-scale GHG accounting by governmental bodies, nongovernmental organizations and in scientific research.

Adaptation of Plants to Salt Stress: Characterization of Na+ and K+ Transporters and Role of CBL Gene Family in Regulating Salt Stress Response

Salinity is one of the most serious factors limiting the productivity of agricultural crops, with adverse effects on germination, plant vigor, and crop yield. This salinity may be natural or induced by agricultural activities such as irrigation or the use of certain types of fertilizer. The most detrimental effect of salinity stress is the accumulation of Na+ and Cl− ions in tissues of plants exposed to soils with high NaCl concentrations. The entry of both Na+ and Cl− into the cells causes severe ion imbalance, and excess uptake might cause significant physiological disorder(s). High Na+ concentration inhibits the uptake of K+, which is an element for plant growth and development that results in lower productivity and may even lead to death. The genetic analyses revealed K+ and Na+ transport systems such as SOS1, which belong to the CBL gene family and play a key role in the transport of Na+ from the roots to the aerial parts in the Arabidopsis plant. In this review, we mainly discuss the roles of alkaline cations K+ and Na+, Ion homeostasis-transport determinants, and their regulation. Moreover, we tried to give a synthetic overview of soil salinity, its effects on plants, and tolerance mechanisms to withstand stress.

The Forest Observation System, building a global reference dataset for remote sensing of forest biomass

Forest biomass is an essential indicator for monitoring the Earth's ecosystems and climate. It is a critical input to greenhouse gas accounting, estimation of carbon losses and forest degradation, assessment of renewable energy potential, and for developing climate change mitigation policies such as REDD+, among others. Wall-to-wall mapping of aboveground biomass (AGB) is now possible with satellite remote sensing (RS). However, RS methods require extant, up-to-date, reliable, representative and comparable in situ data for calibration and validation. Here, we present the Forest Observation System (FOS) initiative, an international cooperation to establish and maintain a global in situ forest biomass database. AGB and canopy height estimates with their associated uncertainties are derived at a 0.25 ha scale from field measurements made in permanent research plots across the world's forests. All plot estimates are geolocated and have a size that allows for direct comparison with many RS measurements. The FOS offers the potential to improve the accuracy of RS-based biomass products while developing new synergies between the RS and ground-based ecosystem research communities.

Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626

Intact tropical forests, free from substantial anthropogenic influence, store and sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon but are currently neglected in international climate policy. We show that between 2000 and 2013, direct clearance of intact tropical forest areas accounted for 3.2% of gross carbon emissions from all deforestation across the pantropics. However, full carbon accounting requires the consideration of forgone carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation. When these factors were considered, the net carbon impact resulting from intact tropical forest loss between 2000 and 2013 increased by a factor of 6 (626%), from 0.34 (0.37 to 0.21) to 2.12 (2.85 to 1.00) petagrams of carbon (equivalent to approximately 2 years of global land use change emissions). The climate mitigation value of conserving the 549 million ha of tropical forest that remains intact is therefore significant but will soon dwindle if their rate of loss continues to accelerate.

Species Matter: Wood Density Influences Tropical Forest Biomass at Multiple Scales

The mass of carbon contained in trees is governed by the volume and density of their wood. This represents a challenge to most remote sensing technologies, which typically detect surface structure and parameters related to wood volume but not to its density. Since wood density is largely determined by taxonomic identity this challenge is greatest in tropical forests where there are tens of thousands of tree species. Here, using pan-tropical literature and new analyses in Amazonia with plots with reliable identifications we assess the impact that species-related variation in wood density has on biomass estimates of mature tropical forests. We find impacts of species on forest biomass due to wood density at all scales from the individual tree up to the whole biome: variation in tree species composition regulates how much carbon forests can store. Even local differences in composition can cause variation in forest biomass and carbon density of 20% between subtly different local forest types, while additional large-scale floristic variation leads to variation in mean wood density of 10-30% across Amazonia and the tropics. Further, because species composition varies at all scales and even vertically within a stand, our analysis shows that bias and uncertainty always result if individual identity is ignored. Since sufficient inventory-based evidence based on botanical identification now exists to show that species composition matters biome-wide for biomass, we here assemble and provide mean basal-area-weighted wood density values for different forests across the lowand tropical biome. These range widely, from 0.467 to 0.728 g cm-3 with a pan-tropical mean of 0.619 g cm-3. Our analysis shows that mapping tropical ecosystem carbon always benefits from locally validated measurement of tree-by-tree botanical identity combined with tree-by-tree measurement of dimensions. Therefore whenever possible, efforts to map and monitor tropical forest carbon using remote sensing techniques should be combined with tree-level measurement of species identity by botanists working in inventory plots.

Uncovering Ecological Patterns with Convolutional Neural Networks

Using remotely sensed imagery to identify biophysical components across landscapes is an important avenue of investigation for ecologists studying ecosystem dynamics. With high-resolution remotely sensed imagery, algorithmic utilization of image context is crucial for accurate identification of biophysical components at large scales. In recent years, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have become ubiquitous in image processing, and are rapidly becoming more common in ecology. Because the quantity of high-resolution remotely sensed imagery continues to rise, CNNs are increasingly essential tools for large-scale ecosystem analysis. We discuss here the conceptual advantages of CNNs, demonstrate how they can be used by ecologists through distinct examples of their application, and provide a walkthrough of how to use them for ecological applications.

Natural disturbance and soils drive diversity and dynamics of seasonal dipterocarp forest in Southern Thailand

In 2000, we established a 24-ha plot in Peninsular Thailand to investigate how forest composition, structure and dynamics vary with spatial heterogeneity in resource availability. Detailed soil and topographic surveys were used to describe four edaphic habitats in the plot. Disturbance history was inferred from historical records and floristic analysis. The plot included >119 000 trees ≥1 cm dbh in 578 species, and was recensused in 2010. Species distributions, floristic turnover, stand structure, demographic rates and biomass dynamics were strongly influenced by heterogeneity in soils, topography and disturbance history. Over 75% of species were aggregated on specific edaphic habitats leading to strong compositional turnover across the plot. Soil chemistry more strongly affected species turnover than topography. Forest with high biomass and slow dynamics occurred on well-drained, low fertility ridges. The distribution and size structure of pioneer species reflected habitat-specific differences in disturbance history. Overall, above-ground biomass (AGB) increased by 0.64 Mg ha−1 y−1, from 385 to 392 Mg ha−1, an increase that was entirely attributable to recovery after natural disturbance. Forest composition and stand structure, by reflecting local disturbance history, provide insights into the likely drivers of AGB change in forests. Predicting future changes in tropical forests requires improved understanding of how soils and disturbance regulate forest dynamics.

The future of Southeast Asia's forests

While Southeast Asia's forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region's forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region's forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region's aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region's forests and their ecosystem functions and services.

Tree Circumference Changes and Species-Specific Growth Recovery After Extreme Dry Events in a Montane Rainforest in Southern Ecuador

Under drought conditions, even tropical rainforests might turn from carbon sinks to sources, and tree species composition might be altered by increased mortality. We monitored stem diameter variations of 40 tree individuals with stem diameters above 10 cm belonging to eleven different tree genera and three tree life forms with high-resolution dendrometers from July 2007 to November 2010 and additionally March 2015 to December 2017 in a tropical mountain rainforest in South Ecuador, a biodiversity hotspot with more than 300 different tree species belonging to different functional types. Although our study area receives around 2200 mm of annual rainfall, dry spells occur regularly during so-called "Veranillo del Niño" (VdN) periods in October-November. In climate change scenarios, droughts are expected with higher frequency and intensity as today. We selected dry intervals with a minimum of four consecutive days to examine how different tree species respond to drought stress, raising the question if some species are better adapted to a possible higher frequency and increasing duration of dry periods. We analyzed the averaged species-specific stem shrinkage rates and recovery times during and after dry periods. The two deciduous broadleaved species Cedrela montana and Handroanthus chrysanthus showed the biggest stem shrinkage of up to 2 mm after 10 consecutive dry days. A comparison of daily circumference changes over 600 consecutive days revealed different drought responses between the families concerning the percentage of days with stem shrinkage/increment, ranging from 27.5 to 72.5% for Graffenrieda emarginata to 45-55% for Podocarpus oleifolius under same climate conditions. Moreover, we found great difference of recovery times after longer-lasting (i.e., eight to ten days) VdN drought events between the two evergreen broadleaved species Vismia cavanillesiana and Tapirira guianensis. While Vismia replenished to pre-VdN stem circumference after only 5 days, Tapirira needed 52 days on average to restore its circumference. Hence, a higher frequency of droughts might increase inter-species competition and species-specific mortality and might finally alter the species composition of the ecosystem.

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

ENSO Drives interannual variation of forest woody growth across the tropics

Meteorological extreme events such as El Niño events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPP_stem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr^-1, with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr^-1 between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Niño events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Niño-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Niño 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation exerts a large influence on global climate regimes and on the global carbon cycle. Although El Niño is known to be associated with a reduction of the global total land carbon sink, results based on prognostic models or measurements disagree over the relative contribution of photosynthesis to the reduced sink. Here, we provide an independent remote sensing-based analysis on the impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using six global satellite-based photosynthesis products and a global solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) dataset. An ensemble of satellite-based photosynthesis products showed a negative anomaly of -0.7 ± 1.2 PgC in 2015, but a slight positive anomaly of 0.05 ± 0.89 PgC in 2016, which when combined with observations of the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations suggests that the reduction of the land residual sink was likely dominated by photosynthesis in 2015 but by respiration in 2016. The six satellite-based products unanimously identified a major photosynthesis reduction of -1.1 ± 0.52 PgC from savannahs in 2015 and 2016, followed by a highly uncertain reduction of -0.22 ± 0.98 PgC from rainforests. Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere enhanced photosynthesis before and after the peak El Niño, especially in grasslands (0.33 ± 0.13 PgC). The patterns of satellite-based photosynthesis ensemble mean were corroborated by SIF, except in rainforests and South America, where the anomalies of satellite-based photosynthesis products also diverged the most. We found the inter-model variation of photosynthesis estimates was strongly related to the discrepancy between moisture forcings for models. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple photosynthesis proxies when assessing responses to climatic anomalies.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Field methods for sampling tree height for tropical forest biomass estimation

Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site-to-site variation in height-diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan-tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height.Using a pan-tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in-field ground-based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally derived height-diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement.Using cross-validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate-based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand-level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over- or under-estimation bias when compared with biomass estimates using field measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height-diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size-class stratified approaches.Our results indicate that even limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height-diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.