Northern forest tree populations are physiologically maladapted to drought

Leaf isotopes reveal tree diversity effects on the functional responses to the pan-European 2018 summer drought

Recent droughts have strongly impacted forest ecosystems and are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in the future together with continued warming. While evidence suggests that tree diversity can regulate drought impacts in natural forests, few studies examine whether mixed tree plantations are more resistant to the impacts of severe droughts. Using natural variations in leaf carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) isotopic ratios, that is δ13C and δ15N, as proxies for drought response, we analyzed the effects of tree species richness on the functional responses of tree plantations to the pan-European 2018 summer drought in seven European tree diversity experiments. We found that leaf δ13C decreased with increasing tree species richness, indicating less drought stress. This effect was not related to drought intensity, nor desiccation tolerance of the tree species. Leaf δ15N increased with drought intensity, indicating a shift toward more open N cycling as water availability diminishes. Additionally, drought intensity was observed to alter the influence of tree species richness on leaf δ15N from weakly negative under low drought intensity to weakly positive under high drought intensity. Overall, our findings suggest that dual leaf isotope analysis helps understand the interaction between drought, nutrients, and species richness.

Contrasting physiological strategies explain heterogeneous responses to severe drought conditions within local populations of a widespread conifer

Understanding how trees prioritize carbon gain at the cost of drought vulnerability under severe drought conditions is crucial for predicting which genetic groups and individuals will be resilient to future climate conditions. In this study, we investigated variations in growth, tree-ring anatomy as well as carbon and oxygen isotope ratios to assess the sensitivity and the xylem formation process in response to an episode of severe drought in 29 mature white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) families grown in a common garden trial. During the drought episode, the majority of families displayed decreased growth and exhibited either sustained or increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), which was largely influenced by reduced stomatal conductance as revealed by the dual carbon‑oxygen isotope approach. Different water-use strategies were detected within white spruce populations in response to drought conditions. Our results revealed intraspecific variation in the prevailing physiological mechanisms underlying drought response within and among populations of Picea glauca. The presence of different genetic groups reflecting diverse water-use strategies within this largely-distributed conifer is likely to lessen the negative effects of drought and decrease the overall forest ecosystems' sensitivity to it.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Climate response of a glacial relict conifer across its distribution range is invariant in space but not in time

Climate change impacts on forest trees will be particularly severe for relict species endemic to the subalpine forest, such as Pinus cembra in the Alps and Carpathians. Most current knowledge about the response of this species to climate comes from tree-ring width analysis. However, this approach cannot perform in-depth and highly time-resolved analysis on the climate influence on specific growth processes and xylem functions. We analyzed xylem anatomical traits from six sites covering most of the longitudinal range of this species. Associations between climate and cell number, lumen area and cell wall thickness were computed for the 1920-2010 period using climate records aligned to degree-day temperature sum thresholds. The anatomical chronologies were clearly distinct between the Alps and Carpathians. However, climate responses were similar for all sites, suggesting common species-specific response mechanisms. Temperature showed a positive correlation with both cell number and cell wall thickness. Cell lumen size exhibited an early positive association, followed by strong negative association with temperature and a positive one with precipitation. This highlights that the cell enlargement process was negatively related to high temperature at high elevation, where meristematic processes are rather supposed to be constrained by low temperatures. Therefore, long-term climate warming can have negative consequences on the xylem potential to transport water at all investigated sites. Moreover, in the last 30 years, we observed a slight anticipation of some responses and a decrease in climate sensitivity of some xylem parameters. Our findings provide evidence of temporally unstable but spatially consistent climate response of Pinus cembra from the Alps to the Carpathians. The low diversity in xylem phenotypic responses to climate suggests that future warming could extensively and evenly affect the species throughout its entire distribution.

Long-term soil water limitation and previous tree vigor drive local variability of drought-induced crown dieback in Fagus sylvatica

Ongoing climate warming is increasing evapotranspiration, a process that reduces plant-available water and aggravates the impact of extreme droughts during the growing season. Such an exceptional hot drought occurred in Central Europe in 2018 and caused widespread defoliation in mid-summer in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests. Here, we recorded crown damage in 2021 in nine mature even-aged beech-dominated stands in northwestern Switzerland along a crown damage severity gradient (low, medium, high) and analyzed tree-ring widths of 21 mature trees per stand. We aimed at identifying predisposing factors responsible for differences in crown damage across and within stands such as tree growth characteristics (average growth rates and year-to-year variability) and site-level variables (mean canopy height, soil properties). We found that stand-level crown damage severity was strongly related to soil water availability, inferred from tree canopy height and plant available soil water storage capacity (AWC). Trees were shorter in drier stands, had higher year-to-year variability in radial growth, and showed higher growth sensitivity to moisture conditions of previous late summer than trees growing on soils with sufficient AWC, indicating that radial growth in these forests is principally limited by soil water availability. Within-stand variation of post-drought crown damage corresponded to growth rate and tree size (diameter at breast height, DBH), i.e., smaller and slower-growing trees that face more competition, were associated with increased crown damage after the 2018 drought. These findings point to tree vigor before the extreme 2018 drought (long-term relative growth rate) as an important driver of damage severity within and across stands. Our results suggest that European beech is less likely to be able to cope with future climate change-induced extreme droughts on shallow soils with limited water retention capacity.

Selection against early flowering in geothermally heated soils is associated with pollen but not prey availability in a carnivorous plant

PREMISE

In high-latitude environments, plastic responses of phenology to increasing spring temperatures allow plants to extend growing seasons while avoiding late frosts. However, evolved plasticity might become maladaptive if climatic conditions change and spring temperatures no longer provide reliable cues for conditions important for fitness. Maladaptative phenological responses might be related to both abiotic factors and mismatches with interacting species. When mismatches arise, we expect selection to favor changes in phenology.

METHODS

We combined observations along a soil temperature gradient in a geothermally heated area with pollen and prey supplementation experiments and examined how phenotypic selection on flowering time in the carnivorous plant Pinguicula vulgaris depends on soil temperature, and pollen and prey availability.

RESULTS

Flowering advanced and fitness decreased with increasing soil temperature. However, in pollen-supplemented plants, fitness instead increased with soil temperature. In heated soils, there was selection favoring later flowering, while earlier flowering was favored in unheated soils. This pattern remained also after artificially increasing pollen and prey availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Plant-pollinator mismatches can be an important reason why evolved plastic responses of flowering time to increasing spring temperatures become maladaptive under novel environmental conditions, and why there is selection to delay flowering. In our study, selection for later flowering remained after artificially increasing pollen availability, suggesting that abiotic factors also contribute to the observed selection. Identifying the factors that make evolved phenological responses maladaptive under novel conditions is fundamental for understanding and predicting evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Amplifying effects of recurrent drought on the dynamics of tree growth and water use in a subalpine forest

Despite recent advances in our understanding of drought impacts on tree functioning, we lack knowledge about the dynamic responses of mature trees to recurrent drought stress. At a subalpine forest site, we assessed the effects of three years of recurrent experimental summer drought on tree growth and water relations of Larix decidua Mill. and Picea abies (L. Karst.), two common European conifers representative for contrasting water-use strategies. We combined dendrometer and xylem sap flow measurements with analyses of xylem anatomy and non-structural carbohydrates and their carbon-isotope composition. Recurrent drought increased the effects of soil moisture limitation on growth and xylogenesis, and to a lesser extent on xylem sap flow. P. abies showed stronger growth responses to recurrent drought, reduced starch concentrations in branches and increased water-use efficiency when compared to L. decidua. Despite comparatively larger maximum tree water deficits than in P. abies, xylem formation of L. decidua was less affected by drought, suggesting a stronger capacity of rehydration or lower cambial turgor thresholds for growth. Our study shows that recurrent drought progressively increases impacts on mature trees of both species, which suggests that in a future climate increasing drought frequency could impose strong legacies on carbon and water dynamics of treeline species.

Identifying Western North American Tree Populations Vulnerable to Drought under Observed and Projected Climate Change

Global climate change has affected forest health and productivity. A highly visible, direct climate impact is dieback caused by drought periods in moisture-limited forest ecosystems. Here, we have used a climate moisture index (CMI), which has been developed in order to map forest–grassland transitions, to investigate the shifts of the zero-CMI isopleths, in order to infer drought vulnerabilities. Our main objective was to identify populations of the 24 most common western North American forest tree species that are most exposed to drought conditions by using a western North American forest inventory database with 55,700 plot locations. We have found that climate change projections primarily increase the water deficits for tree populations that are already in vulnerable positions. In order to test the realism of this vulnerability assessment, we have compared the observed population dieback with changes in index values between the 1961–1990 reference period and a recent 1991–2020 average. The drought impacts that were predicted by negative CMI values largely conformed to the observed dieback in Pinus edulis, Populus tremuloides, and Pinus ponderosa. However, there was one notable counter-example. The observed dieback in the Canadian populations of Populus tremuloides were not associated with directional trends in the drought index values but were instead caused by a rare extreme drought event that was not apparently linked to directional climate change. Nevertheless, a macro-climatic drought index approach appeared to be generally suitable to identify and forecast the drought threats to the tree populations.

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Managing Fire in a Changing Climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO2

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

Contrasting life-history traits of black spruce and jack pine influence their physiological response to drought and growth recovery in northeastern boreal Canada

An increase in frequency, intensity and duration of drought events affects forested ecosystems. Trees react to these changes by adjusting stomatal conductance to maximize the trade-off between carbon gains and water losses. A better understanding of the consequences of these drought-induced physiological adjustments for tree growth could help inferring future productivity potentials of boreal forests. Here, we used samples from a forest inventory network in Canada where a decline in growth rates of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) occurred in 1988-1992, an exceptionally dry period, to verify if this growth decline resulted from physiological adjustments of trees to drought. We measured carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in growth rings of 95 spruces and 49 pines spanning 1985-1993. We used ¹³C discrimination (Δ¹³C) and ¹⁸O enrichment (Δ¹⁸O) as proxies for intrinsic water use efficiency and stomatal conductance, respectively. We studied how inter-annual variability in isotopic signals was linked to climate moisture index, vapor pressure deficit and annual snowfall amount. We found significantly lower Δ¹³C values over 1988-1990, and significantly higher Δ¹⁸O values in 1988-1989 and 1991 compared to the 1985-1993 averages. We also observed that a low climatic water balance and a high vapor pressure deficit were linked with low Δ¹³C and high Δ¹⁸O in the two study species, in parallel with low growth rates. The latter effect persisted into the year following drought for black spruce, but not for jack pine. These findings highlight that small differences in physiological parameters between species could translate into large differences in post-drought recovery. The stronger and longer lasting impact on black spruce compared to jack pine suggests a less efficient carbon use and a lower acclimation potential to future warmer and drier climate conditions.

Sensitivity and threshold dynamics of Pinus strobus and Quercus spp. in response to experimental and naturally occurring severe droughts

Increased drought frequency and severity are a pervasive global threat, yet the capacity of mesic temperate forests to maintain resilience in response to drought remains poorly understood. We deployed a throughfall removal experiment to simulate a once in a century drought in New Hampshire, USA, which coupled with the region-wide 2016 drought, intensified moisture stress beyond that experienced in the lifetimes of our study trees. To assess the sensitivity and threshold dynamics of two dominant northeastern tree genera (Quercus and Pinus), we monitored sap flux density (Js), leaf water potential and gas exchange, growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) for one pretreatment year (2015) and two treatment years (2016-17). Results showed that Js in pine (Pinus strobus L.) declined abruptly at a soil moisture threshold of 0.15 m3 m-3, whereas oak's (Quercus rubra L. and Quercus velutina Lam.) threshold was 0.11 m3 m-3-a finding consistent with pine's more isohydric strategy. Nevertheless, once oaks' moisture threshold was surpassed, Js declined abruptly, suggesting that while oaks are well adapted to moderate drought, they are highly susceptible to extreme drought. The radial growth reduction in response to the 2016 drought was more than twice as great for pine as for oaks (50 vs 18%, respectively). Despite relatively high precipitation in 2017, the oaks' growth continued to decline (low recovery), whereas pine showed neutral (treatment) or improved (control) growth. The iWUE increased in 2016 for both treatment and control pines, but only in treatment oaks. Notably, pines exhibited a significant linear relationship between iWUE and precipitation across years, whereas the oaks only showed a response during the driest conditions, further underscoring the different sensitivity thresholds for these species. Our results provide new insights into how interactions between temperate forest tree species' contrasting physiologies and soil moisture thresholds influence their responses and resilience to extreme drought.

Tree resistance and recovery from drought mediated by multiple abiotic and biotic processes across a large geographic gradient

Worldwide, increasing severity of droughts threatens to change forest ecosystem functioning and community structure. Understanding how forest resilience is determined by its two underlying components, resistance and recovery, will help elucidate the mechanisms of drought responses and help inform management strategies. However, drought responses are shaped by complex processes across different scales, including species-specific drought strategies, tree size, competition, local environmental conditions, and the intensity of the drought event. Here, we quantified the reduction in tree growth during drought (an inverse measure of drought resistance) and post-drought recovery for three montane conifers (Abies concolor, Pinus jeffreyi, and Pinus lambertiana) in California. We used tree ring analysis to quantify responses to drought events of varying intensity between 1895 and 2018 across a geographic climatic gradient, to examine the roles of tree size (DBH) and competition (tree density) in mediating drought responses. We found that years of more intense drought corresponded with larger growth reductions and recovery rates were lower following drought years where trees suffered larger reductions. We found little variation among species in their growth reductions during drought events, but significant differences among species in their recovery post-drought. Across the geographic gradient, trees in the driest locations were susceptible to large growth reductions, signaling either strong sensitivity to drought intensity or exposure to the most extreme drought conditions. These growth reductions were not always compensated for by higher recovery rates. We also found that larger trees were more susceptible to drought due to a steeper negative relationship between recovery rates and the intensity of growth reduction during the drought. Contrary to expectations, recovery rates following the most detrimental drought years were higher in denser forests. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering how factors at various spatial and temporal scales affect the different components of drought responses.

Continent-wide synthesis of the long-term population dynamics of quaking aspen in the face of accelerating human impacts

In recent decades, climate change has disrupted forest functioning by promoting large-scale mortality events, declines in productivity and reduced regeneration. Understanding the temporal dynamics and spatial extent of these changes is critical given the essential ecosystem services provided by forests. As the most widespread tree species in North America, quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is well suited for studying the dynamics of tree populations during a period of unprecedented climate change. Synthesizing continent-wide data, we show that mortality rates of mature aspen stems have increased over the past two-to-three decades, while relative gains in aspen basal area have decreased during the same period. Patterns were pervasive across multiple stand size classes and composition types in western North America biomes, suggesting that trends in demographic rates were not simply a reflection of stand development and succession. Our review of the literature revealed that increased aspen mortality and reduced growth rates were most often associated with hotter, drier conditions, whereas reduced recruitment was most often associated with herbivory. Furthermore, interactions between climate and competition, as well as climate and insect herbivory, had important, context-dependent effects on mortality and growth, respectively. Our analyses of aspen across its entire geographic range indicate that this important tree species is experiencing substantial increases in mortality and decreases in population growth rates across multiple biomes. If such trends are not accompanied by increased recruitment, we expect that the reduced dominance of aspen in forests will lead to major declines in the many essential ecosystem services it provides.

Post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection have shaped growth responses of silver fir across Europe

Warmer climate and more frequent extreme droughts will pose major threats to forest ecosystems. Past demography processes due to post-glacial recolonization and adaptation to local environmental conditions are among the main contributors to genetic differentiation processes among provenances. Assessing the intra-specific variability of tree growth responses to such changes is crucial to explore a species' potential to cope with climate warming. We combined growth-related traits derived from tree-ring width series with neutral genetic information of 18 European provenances of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) growing in two common garden experiments in Switzerland. Analyses based on neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms revealed that the studied provenances grouped into three longitudinal clusters. These three genetic clusters showed differences in growth traits (height and DBH), with the provenances from the eastern cluster exhibiting the highest growth. The Pyrenees cluster showed significantly lower recovery and resilience to the extreme drought of 2003 as well as lower values of growth autocorrelation. Q_ST-F_ST and correlation analyses with climate of provenance origin suggest that the differences among provenances found in some traits result from natural selection. Our study suggests that the last post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection are the major drivers explaining the intra-specific variability in growth of silver fir across Europe. These findings highlight the importance of combining dendroecology and genetic analyses on fitness-related traits to assess the potential of a species to cope with global environmental change and provide insights to support assisted gene flow to ensure the persistence of the species in European forests.

Looking for the needle in a downsized haystack: Whole-exome sequencing unravels genomic signals of climatic adaptation in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii)

Conifers often occur along steep gradients of diverse climates throughout their natural ranges, which is expected to result in spatially varying selection to local climate conditions. However, signals of climatic adaptation can often be confounded, because unraveled clines covary with signals caused by neutral evolutionary processes such as gene flow and genetic drift. Consequently, our understanding of how selection and gene flow have shaped phenotypic and genotypic differentiation in trees is still limited.A 40-year-old common garden experiment comprising 16 Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) provenances from a north-to-south gradient of approx. 1,000 km was analyzed, and genomic information was obtained from exome capture, which resulted in an initial genomic dataset of >90,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used a restrictive and conservative filtering approach, which permitted us to include only SNPs and individuals in environmental association analysis (EAA) that were free of potentially confounding effects (LD, relatedness among trees, heterozygosity deficiency, and deviations from Hardy-Weinberg proportions). We used four conceptually different genome scan methods based on FST outlier detection and gene-environment association in order to disentangle truly adaptive SNPs from neutral SNPs.We found that a relatively small proportion of the exome showed a truly adaptive signal (0.01%-0.17%) when population substructuring and multiple testing was accounted for. Nevertheless, the unraveled SNP candidates showed significant relationships with climate at provenance origins, which strongly suggests that they have featured adaptation in Douglas-fir along a climatic gradient. Two SNPs were independently found by three of the employed algorithms, and one of them is in close proximity to an annotated gene involved in circadian clock control and photoperiodism as was similarly found in Populus balsamifera. Synthesis. We conclude that despite neutral evolutionary processes, phenotypic and genomic signals of adaptation to climate are responsible for differentiation, which in particular explain disparity between the well-known coastal and interior varieties of Douglas-fir.

Modeling Ambitions Outpace Observations of Forest Carbon Allocation

There have been vociferous calls for 'tree-centered' vegetation models to refine predictions of forest carbon (C) cycling. Unfortunately, our global survey at flux-tower sites indicates insufficient empirical data support for this much-needed model development. We urge for a new generation of studies across large environmental gradients that strategically pair long-term ecosystem monitoring with manipulative experiments on mature trees. For this, we outline a versatile experimental framework to build cross-scale data archives of C uptake and allocation to structural, non-structural, and respiratory sinks. Community-wide efforts and discussions are needed to implement this framework, especially in hitherto underrepresented tropical forests. Global coordination and realistic priorities for data collection will thereby be key to achieve and maintain adequate empirical support for tree-centered vegetation modeling.

Annual aboveground carbon uptake enhancements from assisted gene flow in boreal black spruce forests are not long-lasting

Assisted gene flow between populations has been proposed as an adaptive forest management strategy that could contribute to the sequestration of carbon. Here we provide an assessment of the mitigation potential of assisted gene flow in 46 populations of the widespread boreal conifer Picea mariana, grown in two 42-year-old common garden experiments and established in contrasting Canadian boreal regions. We use a dendroecological approach taking into account phylogeographic structure to retrospectively analyse population phenotypic variability in annual aboveground net primary productivity (NPP). We compare population NPP phenotypes to detect signals of adaptive variation and/or the presence of phenotypic clines across tree lifespans, and assess genotype-by-environment interactions by evaluating climate and NPP relationships. Our results show a positive effect of assisted gene flow for a period of approximately 15 years following planting, after which there was little to no effect. Although not long lasting, well-informed assisted gene flow could accelerate the transition from carbon source to carbon sink after disturbance.

Local adaptation to precipitation in the perennial grass Elymus elymoides: Trade-offs between growth and drought resistance traits

Understanding local adaptation to climate is critical for managing ecosystems in the face of climate change. While there have been many provenance studies in trees, less is known about local adaptation in herbaceous species, including the perennial grasses that dominate arid and semiarid rangeland ecosystems. We used a common garden study to quantify variation in growth and drought resistance traits in 99 populations of Elymus elymoides from a broad geographic and climatic range in the western United States. Ecotypes from drier sites produced less biomass and smaller seeds, and had traits associated with greater drought resistance: small leaves with low osmotic potential and high integrated water use efficiency (δ13C). Seasonality also influenced plant traits. Plants from regions with relatively warm, wet summers had large seeds, large leaves, and low δ13C. Irrespective of climate, we also observed trade-offs between biomass production and drought resistance traits. Together, these results suggest that much of the phenotypic variation among E. elymoides ecotypes represents local adaptation to differences in the amount and timing of water availability. In addition, ecotypes that grow rapidly may be less able to persist under dry conditions. Land managers may be able to use this variation to improve restoration success by seeding ecotypes with multiple drought resistance traits in areas with lower precipitation. The future success of this common rangeland species will likely depend on the use of tools such as seed transfer zones to match local variation in growth and drought resistance to predicted climatic conditions.

Evolvability of Drought Response in Four Native and Non-native Conifers: Opportunities for Forest and Genetic Resource Management in Europe

Intraspecific genetic variation in drought response is expected to play an important role in determining the persistence of tree populations in global change as it (1) allows for spontaneous selection and local adaptation of tree populations, (2) supports assisted seed transfer of less-drought-sensitive provenance, and (3) enables the integration of drought-sensitivity traits into tree breeding. Estimating the potential of such adaptation options requires quantitative genetic knowledge of drought sensitivity across significant parts of species distributions and a comparative assessment of genetic variation within economically and ecologically important tree species. We quantified genetic variation within and among populations of four conifers growing within common garden experiments in the drought-prone eastern Austria. This region experienced three strong drought periods between 1980 and 2010 that resulted in significant reductions in radial growth. Among the four tested species, Douglas-fir revealed the highest resistance during drought and silver fir the best recovery after drought, while European larch and Norway spruce showed the lowest resistance. High genetic variation among populations and phenotypic stability across all three drought events was found for Norway spruce and silver fir, but not for the other species. Heritability and evolvability of drought traits, both approximated via genetic repeatability, revealed strong differences among populations of all four species. Repeatability and evolvability for resistance were highest in Norway spruce and, for recovery, highest in European larch. Our comparison indicates that the mean drought sensitivity of a species is not related to the intraspecific genetic variation in drought response. Thus, also highly drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce and European larch, harbor significant genetic variation in drought response within and among populations to justify targeted tree breeding, assisted gene flow, and supportive forest management to foster local adaptations to future conditions.

Across climates and species, higher vapour pressure deficit is associated with wider vessels for plants of the same height

While plant height is the main driver of variation in mean vessel diameter at the stem base (VD) across angiosperms, climate, specifically temperature, does play an explanatory role, with vessels being wider with warmer temperature for plants of the same height. Using a comparative approach sampling 537 species of angiosperms across 19 communities, we rejected selection favouring freezing-induced embolism resistance as being able to account for wider vessels for a given height in warmer climates. Instead, we give reason to suspect that higher vapour pressure deficit (VPD) accounts for the positive scaling of height-standardized VD (and potential xylem conductance) with temperature. Selection likely favours conductive systems that are able to meet the higher transpirational demand of warmer climates, which have higher VPD, resulting in wider vessels for a given height. At the same time, wider vessels are likely more vulnerable to dysfunction. With future climates likely to experience ever greater extremes of VPD, future forests could be increasingly vulnerable.

Impact of Precipitation and Temperature Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) on Annual Radial Increment of Selected Tree Species in Northeast China

A dendroclimatological approach was used to analyze growth responses of the tree species Pinus tabuliformis Carr., Larix gmelinii Rupr., Picea asperata Mast. and Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. in a region of temperate climate in Northeast China. Annual radial increment (ARI) measurements from stem cross-sections were used to identify the effects of precipitation, air temperature and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on tree growth under monsoon-related conditions. We analyzed the ARI of 144 trees from 49 forest stands and applied response function and moving correlation analysis as well as a linear mixed-effects model to detect climate signal in the tree-ring series. Analyses of climate-growth relations confirmed the influence of monsoon intensities on ARI, especially in the months of May to July of the current year. Particularly in times of a weak monsoon, the preceding autumn months significantly affect the ARI. The positive effect of precipitation in times of a strong monsoon and the negative effect of air temperature-indicating increased evapotranspiration-in times of a weak monsoon alternate. An increase in drought sensitivity of the ARI was found, especially after long dry periods. The results revealed for L. gmelinii the highest climate sensitivity, with ARI more strongly influenced by precipitation in the monsoon-related months, whereas Q. mongolica was most drought tolerant and recovered quicker after growth depression. P. asperata and P. tabuliformis were located in between. Our findings provide evidence for a strong influence of the periodically fluctuating monsoon intensities on the ARI of all investigated tree species. Our results support decision-making for forest management under anticipated climate change, especially for tree species selection, in the climate sensitive region of Northeast China.

Adaptation to drought is coupled with slow growth, but independent from phenology in marginal silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations

Drought is one of the most important selection pressures for forest trees in the context of climate change. Yet, the different evolutionary mechanisms, and their environmental drivers, by which certain populations become more drought tolerant than others is still little understood. We studied adaptation to drought in 16 silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations from the French Mediterranean Alps by combining observations on seedlings from a greenhouse experiment (N = 8,199) and on adult tress in situ (N = 315). In the greenhouse, we followed half-sib families for four growing seasons for growth and phenology traits, and tested their water stress response in a "drought until death" experiment. Adult trees in the field were assessed for δ 13C, a proxy for water use efficiency, and genotyped at 357 SNP loci. SNP data was used to generate a null expectation for seedling trait divergence between populations in order to detect the signature of selection, and 31 environmental variables were used to identify the selective environment. We found that seedlings originating from populations with low soil water capacity grew more slowly, attained a smaller stature, and resisted water stress for a longer period of time in the greenhouse. Additionally, adult trees of these populations exhibited a higher water use efficiency as evidenced by their δ 13C. These results suggest a correlated evolution of the growth-drought tolerance trait complex. Population divergence in bud break phenology was adaptive only in the second growing season, and evolved independently from the growth-drought tolerance trait complex. Adaptive divergence in bud break phenology was principally driven by the inter- and intra-annual variation in temperature at the geographic origin of the population. Our results illustrate the different evolutionary strategies used by populations to cope with drought stress at the range limits across a highly heterogeneous landscape, and can be used to inform assisted migration programs.

Continental-scale tree-ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth: Testing the limits of space-for-time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models.

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees' phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long-term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree-level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree-, site-, and drought-related factors and their interactions driving the tree-level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree-ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid-elevation and low productivity sites from 1980-1999 to 2000-2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree-level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long-term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.

Strong overestimation of water-use efficiency responses to rising CO2 in tree-ring studies

The carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³ C) in tree rings is commonly used to derive estimates of the assimilation-to-stomatal conductance rate of trees, that is, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). Recent studies have observed increased iWUE in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (C_a ), in many different species, genera and biomes. However, increasing rates of iWUE vary widely from one study to another, likely because numerous covarying factors are involved. Here, we quantified changes in iWUE of two widely distributed boreal conifers using tree samples from a forest inventory network that were collected across a wide range of growing conditions (assessed using the site index, SI), developmental stages and stand histories. Using tree-ring isotopes analysis, we assessed the magnitude of increase in iWUE after accounting for the effects of tree size, stand age, nitrogen deposition, climate and SI. We also estimated how growth conditions have modulated tree physiological responses to rising C_a . We found that increases in tree size and stand age greatly influenced iWUE. The effect of C_a on iWUE was strongly reduced after accounting for these two variables. iWUE increased in response to C_a , mostly in trees growing on fertile stands, whereas iWUE remained almost unchanged on poor sites. Our results suggest that past studies could have overestimated the CO₂ effect on iWUE, potentially leading to biased inferences about the future net carbon balance of the boreal forest. We also observed that this CO₂ effect is weakening, which could affect the future capacity of trees to resist and recover from drought episodes.

Wood anatomical traits in black spruce reveal latent water constraints on the boreal forest

The effects of climate change on high-latitude forest ecosystems are complex, making forecasts of future scenarios uncertain. The predicted lengthening of the growing season under warming conditions is expected to increase tree growth rates. However, there is evidence of an increasing sensitivity of the boreal forest to drought stress. To assess the influence of temperature and precipitation on the growth of black spruce (Picea mariana), we investigated long-term series of wood anatomical traits on 20 trees from four sites along 600 km, the latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. We correlated the anatomical traits resolved at intraring level with daily temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation during the 1943-2010 period. Tree-ring width, number of cells per ring and cell wall thickness were positively affected by spring and summer daily mean and maximum temperature at the northern sites. These results agree with the well-known positive effect of high temperatures on tree ring formation at high latitudes. However, we captured, for the first time in this region, the latent impact of water availability on xylem traits. Indeed, in all the four sites, cell lumen area showed positive correlations with daily precipitation (mostly at low latitude), and/or negative correlations with daily mean and maximum temperature and VPD (mostly at high latitude). We inferred that drought, due to high temperatures, low precipitations, or both, negatively affects cell enlargement across the closed boreal forest, including the northernmost sites. The production of tracheids with narrower lumen, potentially more resistant to cavitation, could increase xylem hydraulic safety under a warmer and drier climate. However, this would result in lower xylem conductivity, with consequent long-term hydraulic deterioration, growth decline, and possibly lead to tree dieback, as observed in other forest ecosystems at lower latitudes.

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

How populations of long-living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre-adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range-wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness-related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.

Low growth resilience to drought is related to future mortality risk in trees

Severe droughts have the potential to reduce forest productivity and trigger tree mortality. Most trees face several drought events during their life and therefore resilience to dry conditions may be crucial to long-term survival. We assessed how growth resilience to severe droughts, including its components resistance and recovery, is related to the ability to survive future droughts by using a tree-ring database of surviving and now-dead trees from 118 sites (22 species, >3,500 trees). We found that, across the variety of regions and species sampled, trees that died during water shortages were less resilient to previous non-lethal droughts, relative to coexisting surviving trees of the same species. In angiosperms, drought-related mortality risk is associated with lower resistance (low capacity to reduce impact of the initial drought), while it is related to reduced recovery (low capacity to attain pre-drought growth rates) in gymnosperms. The different resilience strategies in these two taxonomic groups open new avenues to improve our understanding and prediction of drought-induced mortality.

Effects of Soil Microbes on Functional Traits of Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda) Seedling Families From Contrasting Climates

Examining factors that influence seedling establishment is essential for predicting the impacts of climate change on tree species' distributions. Seedlings originating from contrasting climates differentially express functional traits related to water and nutrient uptake and drought resistance that reflect their climate of origin and influence their responses to drought. Soil microbes may improve seedling establishment because they can enhance water and nutrient uptake and drought resistance. However, the relative influence of soil microbes on the expression of these functional traits between seedling families or populations from contrasting climates is unknown. To determine if soil microbes may differentially alter functional traits to enhance water and nutrient uptake and drought resistance between dry and wet families, seeds of loblolly pine families from the driest and wettest ends of its geographic range (dry, wet) were planted in sterilized sand (controls) or in sterilized sand inoculated with a soil microbial community (inoculated). Functional traits related to seedling establishment (germination), water and nutrient uptake and C allocation (root:shoot biomass ratio, root exudate concentration, leaf C:N, leaf N isotope composition (δ¹⁵N)), and drought resistance (turgor loss point, leaf carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C)) were measured. Then, plants were exposed to a drought treatment and possible shifts in photosynthetic performance were monitored using chlorophyll fluorescence. Inoculated plants exhibited significantly greater germination than controls regardless of family. The inoculation treatment significantly increased root:shoot biomass ratio in the wet family but not in the dry family, suggesting soil microbes alter functional traits that improve water and nutrient uptake more so in a family originating from a wetter climate than in a family originating from a drier climate. Microbial effects on photosynthetic performance during drought also differed between families, as photosynthetic performance of the dry inoculated group declined fastest. Regardless of treatment, the dry family exhibited a greater root:shoot biomass ratio, root exudate concentration, and leaf δ¹⁵N than the wet family. This indicates that the dry family allocated more resources belowground than the wet and the two family may have used different sources of plant available N, which may be related to their contrasting climates of origin and influence their drought resistance. Examination of variation in impacts of soil microbes on seedling physiology improves efforts to enhance seedling establishment and beneficial plant-microbe interactions under climate change.

Evaluating genomic data for management of local adaptation in a changing climate: A lodgepole pine case study

We evaluate genomic data, relative to phenotypic and climatic data, as a basis for assisted gene flow and genetic conservation. Using a seedling common garden trial of 281 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) populations from across western Canada, we compare genomic data to phenotypic and climatic data to assess their effectiveness in characterizing the climatic drivers and spatial scale of local adaptation in this species. We find that phenotype-associated loci are equivalent or slightly superior to climate data for describing local adaptation in seedling traits, but that climate data are superior to genomic data that have not been selected for phenotypic associations. We also find agreement between the climate variables associated with genomic variation and with 20-year heights from a long-term provenance trial, suggesting that genomic data may be a viable option for identifying climatic drivers of local adaptation where phenotypic data are unavailable. Genetic clines associated with the experimental traits occur at broad spatial scales, suggesting that standing variation of adaptive alleles for this and similar species does not require management at scales finer than those indicated by phenotypic data. This study demonstrates that genomic data are most useful when paired with phenotypic data, but can also fill some of the traditional roles of phenotypic data in management of species for which phenotypic trials are not feasible.

Short-interval wildfire and drought overwhelm boreal forest resilience

The size and frequency of large wildfires in western North America have increased in recent years, a trend climate change is likely to exacerbate. Due to fuel limitations, recently burned forests resist burning for upwards of 30 years; however, extreme fire-conducive weather enables reburning at shorter fire-free intervals than expected. This research quantifies the outcomes of short-interval reburns in upland and wetland environments of northwestern Canadian boreal forests and identifies an interactive effect of post-fire drought. Despite adaptations to wildfire amongst boreal plants, post-fire forests at paired short- and long-interval sites were significantly different, with short-interval sites having lower stem densities of trees due to reduced conifer recruitment, a higher proportion of broadleaf trees, less residual organic material, and reduced herbaceous vegetation cover. Drought reinforced changes in proportions of tree species and decreases in tree recruitment, reinforcing non-resilient responses to short-interval reburning. Drier and warmer weather will increase the incidence of short-interval reburning and amplify the ecological changes such events cause, as wildfire activity and post-fire drought increase synergistically. These interacting disturbances will accelerate climate-driven changes in boreal forest structure and composition. Our findings identify processes of ongoing and future change in a climate-sensitive biome.

Widespread drought-induced tree mortality at dry range edges indicates that climate stress exceeds species' compensating mechanisms

Drought-induced tree mortality is projected to increase due to climate change, which will have manifold ecological and societal impacts including the potential to weaken or reverse the terrestrial carbon sink. Predictions of tree mortality remain limited, in large part because within-species variations in ecophysiology due to plasticity or adaptation and ecosystem adjustments could buffer mortality in dry locations. Here, we conduct a meta-analysis of 50 studies spanning >100 woody plant species globally to quantify how populations within species vary in vulnerability to drought mortality and whether functional traits or climate mediate mortality patterns. We find that mortality predominantly occurs in drier populations and this pattern is more pronounced in species with xylem that can tolerate highly negative water potentials, typically considered to be an adaptive trait for dry regions, and species that experience higher variability in water stress. Our results indicate that climate stress has exceeded physiological and ecosystem-level tolerance or compensating mechanisms by triggering extensive mortality at dry range edges and provides a foundation for future mortality projections in empirical distribution and mechanistic vegetation models.

Intra-specific variation in growth and wood density traits under water-limited conditions: Long-term-, short-term-, and sudden responses of four conifer tree species

Consequences of climate change will severely affect forest ecosystems in the near future, yet our understanding of how and why trees are responding to their abiotic environment is still limited. Intra-specific variation (ITV) in the growth response of trees to warming and drought has been widely neglected so far, but could play a key role for adapting forests to future climate conditions. We analyzed tree rings from four conifers (Picea abies, Abies alba, Larix decidua, Pseudotsuga menziesii) regarding their intra-specific adaptation potential when trees are growing at the warm and dry margins of species distributions. Our study comprises data from four common garden experiments (45 provenances and a total of 743 trees) and assessed growth response at different temporal scales from decades (long-term) to only a few event years (short-term) and finally for density fluctuations within one year (sudden response). We observed significant variation among provenances at all time-scales, but with varying degree among species. However, variation in short-term response (drought years) was remarkably unstable across all species, when the seasonal variation of drought occurrence was considered. Silver-fir and Douglas-fir showed significant associations between seed-source climate and growth response as well as trade-offs between early- and latewood growth reaction which strongly suggests that growth responses are adaptive. Intra-specific variation in conifers in response to drought will probably be sufficient to mitigate climate change consequences on forest growth, but growth-environment interactions as well as dependencies between temporal scales could create major pitfalls for adaptive forest management in the future.