Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort

Moving beyond hotspots of HIV prevalence to geospatial hotspots of UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in sub-Saharan Africa

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa displays a varied geographical distribution, with particular regions termed as HIV hotspots due to a higher prevalence of infection. Addressing these hotspots is essential for controlling the epidemic. However, these regions, influenced by historical factors, challenge standard interventions. Legacy effects-the lasting impact of past events-play a substantial role in the persistence of these hotspots. To address this challenge of the standard interventions, we propose a shift towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. Spatial analysis of HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy coverage can provide a more comprehensive perspective on the epidemic's dynamics. Studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe, using this approach, have revealed disparities in HIV care metrics across regions. By focusing on the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, more effective control strategies can be designed, with consideration of both historical and current factors. This approach would offer a solution-oriented strategy, emphasising tailored interventions based on specific regional needs.

Local Network Interaction as a Mechanism for Wealth Inequality

Given limited institutional resources, low-income populations often rely on social networks to improve their socioeconomic outcomes. However, it remains in question whether small-scale social interactions could affect large-scale economic inequalities in under-resourced contexts. Here, we leverage population-level data from one of the poorest South African settings to construct a large-scale, geographically defined, inter-household social network. Using a multilevel network model, we show that having social ties in close geographic proximity is associated with stable household asset conditions, while geographically distant ties correlate to changes in asset allocation. Notably, we find that localised network interactions are associated with an increase in wealth inequality at the regional level, demonstrating how macro-level inequality may arise from micro-level social processes. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding complex social connections underpinning inter-household resource dynamics, and raise the potential of large-scale social assistance programs to reduce disparities in resource-ownership by accounting for local social constraints.

Cost-effectiveness of single-visit cervical cancer screening in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a model-based analysis accounting for the HIV epidemic

Introduction

Women living with human immunodeficiency virus (WLHIV) face elevated risks of human papillomavirus (HPV) acquisition and cervical cancer (CC). Coverage of CC screening and treatment remains low in low-and-middle-income settings, reflecting resource challenges and loss to follow-up with current strategies. We estimated the health and economic impact of alternative scalable CC screening strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, a region with high burden of CC and HIV.

Methods

We parameterized a dynamic compartmental model of HPV and HIV transmission and CC natural history to KwaZulu-Natal. Over 100 years, we simulated the status quo of a multi-visit screening and treatment strategy with cytology and colposcopy triage (South African standard of care) and six single-visit comparator scenarios with varying: 1) screening strategy (HPV DNA testing alone, with genotyping, or with automated visual evaluation triage, a new high-performance technology), 2) screening frequency (once-per-lifetime for all women, or repeated every 5 years for WLHIV and twice for women without HIV), and 3) loss to follow-up for treatment. Using the Ministry of Health perspective, we estimated costs associated with HPV vaccination, screening, and pre-cancer, CC, and HIV treatment. We quantified CC cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted for each scenario. We discounted costs (2022 US dollars) and outcomes at 3% annually and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

We projected 69,294 new CC cases and 43,950 CC-related deaths in the status quo scenario. HPV DNA testing achieved the greatest improvement in health outcomes, averting 9.4% of cases and 9.0% of deaths with one-time screening and 37.1% and 35.1%, respectively, with repeat screening. Compared to the cost of the status quo ($12.79 billion), repeat screening using HPV DNA genotyping had the greatest increase in costs. Repeat screening with HPV DNA testing was the most effective strategy below the willingness to pay threshold (ICER: $3,194/DALY averted). One-time screening with HPV DNA testing was also an efficient strategy (ICER: $1,398/DALY averted).

Conclusions

Repeat single-visit screening with HPV DNA testing was the optimal strategy simulated. Single-visit strategies with increased frequency for WLHIV may be cost-effective in KwaZulu-Natal and similar settings with high HIV and HPV prevalence.

Epidemiology and referral patterns of patients living with chronic kidney disease in Johannesburg, South Africa: A single centre experience

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant contributor to the global burden of non-communicable disease. Early intervention may facilitate slowing down of progression of CKD; recognition of at-risk patient groups may improve detection through screening. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 960 patients attending a specialist nephrology outpatient clinic during the period 1 January 2011-31 December 2021. A significant proportion (47.8%) of patients were referred with established CKD stage G4 or G5. Non-national immigration status, previous diagnosis with diabetes, and advancing age were associated with late referral; antecedent diagnosis with HIV reduced the odds of late referral. Black African patients comprised most of the sample cohort and were younger at referral and more frequently female than other ethnicities; non-nationals were younger at referral than South Africans. Hypertension-associated kidney disease was the leading ascribed aetiological factor for CKD (40.7% of cases), followed by diabetic kidney disease (DKD) (19%), glomerular disease (12.5%), and HIV-associated kidney disease (11.8%). Hypertension-related (25.9%) and diabetic (10.7%) kidney diseases were not uncommon in people living with HIV. Advancing age and male sex increased the likelihood of diagnosis with hypertensive nephropathy, DKD and obstructive uropathy; males were additionally at increased risk of HIV-associated kidney disease and nephrotoxin exposure, as were patients of Black African ethnicity. In summary, this data shows that hypertension, diabetes, and HIV remain important aetiological factors in CKD in the South African context. Despite the well-described risk of CKD in these disorders, referral to nephrology services occurs late. Interventions and policy actions targeting at-risk populations are required to improve referral practices.

Effect of a male-targeted digital decision support application aimed at increasing linkage to HIV care among men: Findings from the HITS cluster randomized clinical trial in rural South Africa

Introduction

Linkage to HIV care remains suboptimal among men. We investigated the effectiveness of a male-targeted HIV-specific decision support app, Empowering People through Informed Choices for HIV (EPIC-HIV), on increasing linkage to HIV care among men in rural South Africa.

Methods

Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start (HITS) was a multi-component cluster-randomized controlled trial among 45 communities in uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal. The development of EPIC-HIV was guided by self-determination theory and human-centered intervention design to increase intrinsic motivation to seek HIV testing and care among men. EPIC-HIV was offered in two stages: EPIC-HIV 1 at the time of home-based HIV counseling and testing (HBHCT), and EPIC-HIV 2 at 1 month after positive HIV diagnosis. Sixteen communities were randomly assigned to the arms to receive EPIC-HIV, and 29 communities to the arms without EPIC-HIV. Among all eligible men, we compared linkage to care (initiation or resumption of antiretroviral therapy after >3 months of care interruption) at local clinics within 1 year of a home visit, which was ascertained from individual clinical records. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for receiving another intervention (i.e., financial incentives) and clustering at the community level. We also conducted a satisfaction survey for EPIC-HIV 2.

Results

Among all 13,894 eligible men (i.e., ≥15 years and resident in the 45 communities), 20.7% received HBHCT, resulting in 122 HIV-positive tests. Among these, 54 men linked to care within 1 year after HBHCT. Additionally, of the 13,765 eligible participants who did not receive HBHCT or received HIV-negative results, 301 men linked to care within 1 year. Overall, only 13 men received EPIC-HIV 2. The proportion of linkage to care did not differ in the arms assigned to EPIC-HIV compared to those without EPIC-HIV (adjusted risk ratio=1.05; 95% CI:0.86-1.29). All 13 men who used EPIC-HIV 2 reported the app was acceptable, user-friendly, and useful for getting information on HIV testing and treatment.

Conclusion

Reach was low although acceptability and usability of the app was very high among those who engaged with it. Enhanced digital support applications could form part of interventions to increase knowledge of HIV treatment for men. Clinical Trial Number: ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03757104.

The impact of a conditional financial incentive on linkage to HIV care: Findings from the HITS cluster randomized clinical trial in rural South Africa

Introduction

HIV elimination requires innovative approaches to ensure testing and immediate treatment provision. We investigated the effectiveness of conditional financial incentives on increasing linkage to HIV care in a 2×2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial-Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start (HITS) - in rural South Africa.

Methods

Of 45 communities in uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal, 16 communities were randomly assigned to the arms to receive financial incentives for home-based HIV counseling and testing (HBHCT) and linkage to care within 6 weeks (R50 [US$3] food voucher each) and 29 communities to the arms without financial incentives. We examined linkage to care (i.e., initiation or resumption of antiretroviral therapy after >3 months of care interruption) at local clinics within 6 weeks of a home visit, the eligibility period to receive the second financial incentive. Linkage to care was ascertained from individual clinical records. Intention-to-treat analysis (ITT) was performed using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for receiving another intervention (i.e., male-targeted HIV-specific decision support app) and clustering of standard errors at the community level.

Results

Among 13,894 eligible men (i.e., ≥15 years and resident in the 45 communities), 20.7% received HBHCT, which resulted in 122 HIV-positive tests. Of these, 27 linked to care within 6 weeks of HBHCT. Additionally, of eligible men who did not receive HBHCT, 66 linked to care. In the ITT analysis, the proportion of linkage to care among men did not differ in the arms which received financial incentives and those without financial incentives (adjusted Risk Ratio [aRR]=0.78, 95% CI: 0.51-1.21). Among 19,884 eligible women, 29.1% received HBHCT, which resulted in 375 HIV-positive tests. Of these, 75 linked to care. Among eligible women who did not receive HBHCT, 121 linked to care within 6 weeks. Women in the financial incentive arms had a significantly higher probability of linkage to care, compared to those in the arms without financial incentives (aRR=1.50; 95% CI: 1.03-2.21).

Conclusion

While a small once-off financial incentive did not increase linkage to care among men during the eligibility period of 6 weeks, it significantly improved linkage to care among women over the same period. Clinical Trial Number: ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03757104.

Does Engagement in HIV Care Affect Screening, Diagnosis, and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Low- and middle-income countries are facing a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Providing HIV treatment may provide opportunities to increase access to NCD services in under-resourced environments. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate whether use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with increased screening, diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, or cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A comprehensive search of electronic literature databases for studies published between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2022 yielded 26 studies, describing 13,570 PLWH in SSA, 61% of whom were receiving ART. Random effects models were used to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) of the risk of diagnosis by ART status and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), where appropriate. ART use was associated with a small but imprecise increase in the odds of diabetes diagnosis (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.71, 1.60) and an increase in the odds of hypertension diagnosis (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.42, 3.09). We found minimal data on the association between ART use and screening, treatment, or control of NCDs. Despite a potentially higher NCD risk among PLWH and regional efforts to integrate NCD and HIV care, evidence to support effective care integration models is lacking.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Maternal exposure to heat and its association with miscarriage in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

We sought to improve the current understanding of how climate change impacts women's reproductive health in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage (pregnancy ending before 20 weeks gestation) in a South African setting.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

METHODS

Our study involved data for pregnancies collected via a health and demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa between 2012 and 2016. Data from the South African Weather Service were used to compute maternal exposure to heat during the following time windows for each pregnancy: during the month preceding conception (T1) and during the week preceding the study outcome (either a miscarriage or no miscarriage, T2). Heat exposure was operationalized as a continuous variable and defined as the number of days that a mother was exposed to a mean daily temperature of > 26.6°C (A "hot day," equivalent to a mean daily temperature of > 80°F) during T1 or T2. Binary logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage.

RESULTS

A total of 105/3477 pregnancies included in our analysis ended in miscarriage (3.0%). Each additional hot day during T1 was associated with a 26% higher odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 1.26; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-1.38). No significant associations were observed between maternal heat exposure during T2 and the odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.20). The relationship between maternal heat exposure during T1 and the odds of miscarriage was J-shaped.

CONCLUSION

There is a clear relationship between maternal heat exposure during the month preceding conception and miscarriage in our sub-Saharan African setting. Given the lack of feasible strategies to reduce pregnancy loss associated with prevailing high temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, progressive climate change will likely exacerbate existing challenges for women's reproductive health in this region.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus serological markers among pregnant women in Africa, 1984-2020

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a major public health concern, particularly in Africa where HIV rates remain substantial. Pregnant women are at an increased risk of acquiring HIV, which has a significant impact on both maternal and child health.

AIM

To review summarizes HIV seroprevalence among pregnant women in Africa. It also identifies regional and clinical characteristics that contribute to study-specific estimates variation.

METHODS

The study included pregnant women from any African country or region, irrespective of their symptoms, and any study design conducted in any setting. Using electronic literature searches, articles published until February 2023 were reviewed. The quality of the included studies was evaluated. The DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model was applied to determine HIV pooled seroprevalence among pregnant women in Africa. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify potential sources of heterogeneity. Heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran's Q test and I2 statistics, and publication bias was assessed with Egger's test.

RESULTS

A total of 248 studies conducted between 1984 and 2020 were included in the quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis). Out of the total studies, 146 (58.9%) had a low risk of bias and 102 (41.1%) had a moderate risk of bias. No HIV-positive pregnant women died in the included studies. The overall HIV seroprevalence in pregnant women was estimated to be 9.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.3-10.3]. The subgroup analysis showed statistically significant heterogeneity across subgroups (P < 0.001), with the highest seroprevalence observed in Southern Africa (29.4%, 95%CI: 26.5-32.4) and the lowest seroprevalence observed in Northern Africa (0.7%, 95%CI: 0.3-1.3).

CONCLUSION

The review found that HIV seroprevalence among pregnant women in African countries remains significant, particularly in Southern African countries. This review can inform the development of targeted public health interventions to address high HIV seroprevalence in pregnant women in African countries.

Prevalence of Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in a Population-Representative Sample of Young Adults in a High HIV Incidence Area in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Recent population-representative estimates of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence in high HIV burden areas in southern Africa are limited. We estimated the prevalence and associated factors of 3 STIs among adolescents and young adults (AYA) in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Between March 2020 and May 2021, a population-representative sample of AYA aged 16 to 29 years were randomly selected from a Health and Demographic Surveillance Site in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, for a 2 × 2 factorial randomized controlled trial. Participants in 2 intervention arms were offered baseline testing for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomoniasis using GeneXpert. Prevalence estimates were weighted for participation bias, and logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with STIs.

RESULTS

Of 2323 eligible AYA, 1743 (75%) enrolled in the trial. Among 863 eligible for STI testing, 814 (94%) provided specimens (median age of 21.8 years, 52% female, and 71% residing in rural areas). Population-weighted prevalence estimates were 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.2%-5.8%) for gonorrhea, 17.9% (16.5%-19.3%) for chlamydia, 5.4% (4.6%-6.3%) for trichomoniasis, and 23.7% (22.2%-25.3%) for any STI. In multivariable models, female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.24; 95% CI, 1.48-3.09) and urban/periurban (vs. rural) residence (aOR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.02-2.15) were associated with STIs; recent migration was associated with lower odds of STI (aOR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.15-0.89). Among those with an STI, 53 (31.0%) were treated within 7 days; median time to treatment was 11 days (interquartile range, 6-77 days).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a high prevalence of curable STIs among AYA in rural South Africa. Improved access to STI testing to enable etiologic diagnosis and rapid treatment is needed.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Risk Factors for Recent HIV Infections among Adults in 14 Countries in Africa Identified by Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys, 2015-2019

Identifying persons who have newly acquired HIV infections is critical for characterizing the HIV epidemic direction. We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted across 14 countries in Africa for recent infection risk factors. We included adults 15-49 years of age who had sex during the previous year and used a recent infection testing algorithm to distinguish recent from long-term infections. We collected risk factor information via participant interviews and assessed correlates of recent infection using multinomial logistic regression, incorporating each survey's complex sampling design. Compared with HIV-negative persons, persons with higher odds of recent HIV infection were women, were divorced/separated/widowed, had multiple recent sex partners, had a recent HIV-positive sex partner or one with unknown status, and lived in communities with higher HIV viremia prevalence. Prevention programs focusing on persons at higher risk for HIV and their sexual partners will contribute to reducing HIV incidence.

Improving HIV testing, linkage, and retention in care among South African men through U=U messaging: A study protocol for two sequential hybrid type 1 effectiveness- implementation randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Increasing HIV testing and treatment coverage among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is essential for achieving global AIDS epidemic control. However, compared to women, cis-gender heterosexual men living with HIV are significantly less likely to know their HIV status, initiate anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and achieve viral suppression. This is particularly true in South Africa, where men are also at increased risk of mortality resulting from AIDS-related illnesses. While there is growing knowledge of Treatment as Prevention or the concept Undetectable=Untransmittable (U=U) among PLHIV in Western and high-income countries, the reach and penetration of the U=U message in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited, and few studies have evaluated the impact of accessible and relatable U=U messages on ART initiation and adherence. To address these gaps, rigorous evaluations of interventions that incorporate U=U messages are needed, especially among men in high prevalence settings.

METHODS

Building on our U=U messages that we previously developed for men using behavioral economics insights and a human-centered design, we will conduct two sequential hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation trials to evaluate the impact of U=U messages on men's uptake of community-based HIV testing and ART initiation (Trial 1), and retention in care and achievement of viral suppression (Trial 2). A cluster randomized trial will be implemented for Trial 1, with HIV testing service site-days randomized to U=U or standard-of-care (SoC) messages inviting men to test for HIV. An individual-level randomized control trial will be implemented for Trial 2, with men initiating ART at six government clinics randomized to receive U=U counselling or SoC treatment adherence messaging. We will incorporate a multi-method evaluation to inform future implementation of U=U messaging interventions. The study will be conducted in the Buffalo City Metro Health District of the Eastern Cape Province and in the Cape Town Metro Health District in the Western Cape Province in South Africa.

DISCUSSION

These trials are the first to rigorously evaluate the impact of U=U messaging on HIV testing uptake, ART initiation and achievement of viral suppression among African men. If effective, these messaging interventions can shape global HIV testing, treatment and adherence counselling guidelines and practices.

HIV incidence among non-migrating persons following a household migration event: a population-based, longitudinal study in Uganda

Background

The impact of migration on HIV risk among non-migrating household members is poorly understood. We measured HIV incidence among non-migrants living in households with and without migrants in Uganda.

Methods

We used four survey rounds of data collected from July 2011-May 2018 from non-migrant participants aged 15-49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open, population-based cohort. Non-migrants were individuals with no evidence of migration between surveys or at the prior survey. The primary exposure, household migration, was assessed using census data and defined as ≥1 household member migrating in or out of the house from another community between surveys (∼18 months). Incident HIV cases tested positive following a negative result at the preceding visit. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors. Analyses were stratified by gender, migration into or out of the household, and the relationship between non-migrants and migrants (i.e., any household migration, spouse, child).

Findings

Overall, 11,318 non-migrants (5,674 women) were followed for 37,320 person-years. 28% (6,059/21,370) of non-migrant person-visits had recent migration into or out of the household, and 240 HIV incident cases were identified in non-migrating household members. Overall, non-migrants in migrant households were not at greater risk of acquiring HIV. However, HIV incidence among men was significantly higher when the spouse had recently migrated in (adjIRR:2·12;95%CI:1·05-4·27) or out (adjIRR:4·01;95%CI:2·16-7·44) compared to men with no spousal migration. Women with in- and out-migrant spouses also had higher HIV incidence, but results were not statistically significant.

Interpretation

HIV incidence is higher among non-migrating persons with migrant spouses, especially men. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for those with migrant spouses.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Research in context

We searched PubMed for studies focused on HIV acquisition, prevalence or sexual behaviors among non-migrants who lived with migrants in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using search terms such as "HIV", "Emigration and Immigration", "family", "spouses", "household", "parents", and "children". Despite high levels of migration and an established association with HIV risk in SSA, there is limited data on the broader societal impacts of migration on HIV acquisition risk among non-migrant populations directly impacted by it.There has been only one published study that has previously evaluated impact of migration on HIV incidence among non-migrating persons in sub-Saharan Africa. This study, which exclusively assessed spousal migration, was conducted in Tanzania more than two decades earlier prior to HIV treatment availability and found that non-migrant men with long-term mobile partners were more than four times as likely to acquire HIV compared to men who had partners that were residents. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the effect of non-spousal migration, including any household migration and child migration, on HIV incidence among non-migrants.

Added value of this study

In this study, we used data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), a population-based HIV surveillance cohort to measure the impact of migration on HIV incidence for non-migrant household members. The RCCS captures HIV incident events through regular, repeat HIV testing of participants and migration events through household censuses. Our study adds to the current literature by examining the general effect of migration in the household on HIV incidence in addition to child, and spousal migration. Using data from over 11,000 non-migrant individuals, we found that spousal, but not other types of household migration, substantially increased HIV risk among non-migrants, especially among men. Taken together, our results suggest that spousal migration may be associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition in the period surrounding and immediately after spousal migration.

Implications of all the available evidence

Our findings suggest that spousal migration in or out of the household is associated with greater HIV incidence. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for men with migrant spouses.

Can we find the missing men in clinics? Clinic attendance by sex and HIV status in rural South Africa

Background: HIV-negative men are over-represented in tuberculosis (TB) prevalence surveys including the first South African national TB prevalence survey in 2018. Traditionally, TB screening is focused in clinics. We aimed to determine the frequency of primary healthcare clinic (PHC) attendance among HIV-negative men in a TB-prevalent setting. Methods: Since January 2017, PHC attendees in a rural South African demographic surveillance area (DSA) were asked their reason for attendance. HIV status was defined as positive if tested positive in a DSA sero-survey or attended clinic for HIV care; negative if tested negative between January 2014-December 2017 and no HIV-related visits; and HIV-unknown otherwise. Results: Among 67124 DSA residents (≥15 years), 27038 (40.3%) were men; 14196 (21.2%) were classified HIV-positive, 18892 (28.1%) HIV-negative and 34036 (50.7%) HIV-unknown. Between April 2017 and March 2018, 24382/67124 (36.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 36.0-36.7) adults made ≥1 PHC visit, comprising 9805/40086 (24.5%, 95%CI 23.6-25.3) of HIV-negative or unknown women and 3440/27038 (12.7%, 95%CI 11.6-13.8) of HIV-negative or unknown men. Overall, HIV care accounted for 37556/88109 (42.6%) of adult PHC visits. Conclusion: In this rural population, HIV-negative and -unknown men rarely attend PHCs. Improving TB screening in clinics may not reach a key population with respect to undiagnosed TB. Additional strategies are needed to diagnose and treat TB earlier.

Thetha Nami ngithethe nawe (Let's Talk): a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial of social mobilisation by peer navigators into community-based sexual health and HIV care, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), to reduce sexually transmissible HIV amongst young people in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) through universal test and treat (UTT) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) substantially reduces HIV-related mortality and incidence. Effective ART based prevention has not translated into population-level impact in southern Africa due to sub-optimal coverage among youth. We aim to investigate the effectiveness, implementation and cost effectiveness of peer-led social mobilisation into decentralised integrated HIV and sexual reproductive health (SRH) services amongst adolescents and young adults in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

METHODS

We are conducting a type 1a hybrid effectiveness/implementation study, with a cluster randomized stepped-wedge trial (SWT) to assess effectiveness and a realist process evaluation to assess implementation outcomes. The SWT will be conducted in 40 clusters in rural KZN over 45 months. Clusters will be randomly allocated to receive the intervention in period 1 (early) or period 2 (delayed). 1) Intervention arm: Resident peer navigators in each cluster will approach young men and women aged 15-30 years living in their cluster to conduct health, social and educational needs assessment and tailor psychosocial support and health promotion, peer mentorship, and facilitate referrals into nurse led mobile clinics that visit each cluster regularly to deliver integrated SRH and differentiated HIV prevention (HIV testing, UTT for those positive, and PrEP for those eligible and negative). Standard of Care is UTT and PrEP delivered to 15-30 year olds from control clusters through primary health clinics. There are 3 co-primary outcomes measured amongst cross sectional surveys of 15-30 year olds: 1) effectiveness of the intervention in reducing the prevalence of sexually transmissible HIV; 2) uptake of universal risk informed HIV prevention intervention; 3) cost of transmissible HIV infection averted. We will use a realist process evaluation to interrogate the extent to which the intervention components support demand, uptake, and retention in risk-differentiated biomedical HIV prevention.

DISCUSSION

The findings of this trial will be used by policy makers to optimize delivery of universal differentiated HIV prevention, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis through peer-led mobilisation into community-based integrated adolescent and youth friendly HIV and sexual and reproductive health care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier-NCT05405582. Registered: 6th June 2022.

Impact of family networks on uptake of health interventions: evidence from a community-randomized control trial aimed at increasing HIV testing in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

While it is widely acknowledged that family relationships can influence health outcomes, their impact on the uptake of individual health interventions is unclear. In this study, we quantified how the efficacy of a randomized health intervention is shaped by its pattern of distribution in the family network.

METHODS

The "Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start" (HITS) was a 2×2 factorial community-randomized controlled trial in Umkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, embedded in the Africa Health Research Institute's population-based demographic and HIV surveillance platform (ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03757104). The study investigated the impact of two interventions: a financial micro-incentive and a male-targeted HIV-specific decision support programme. The surveillance area was divided into 45 community clusters. Individuals aged ≥15 years in 16 randomly selected communities were offered a micro-incentive (R50 [$3] food voucher) for rapid HIV testing (intervention arm). Those living in the remaining 29 communities were offered testing only (control arm). Study data were collected between February and November 2018. Using routinely collected data on parents, conjugal partners, and co-residents, a socio-centric family network was constructed among HITS-eligible individuals. Nodes in this network represent individuals and ties represent family relationships. We estimated the effect of offering the incentive to people with and without family members who also received the offer on the uptake of HIV testing. We fitted a linear probability model with robust standard errors, accounting for clustering at the community level.

RESULTS

Overall, 15,675 people participated in the HITS trial. Among those with no family members who received the offer, the incentive's efficacy was a 6.5 percentage point increase (95% CI: 5.3-7.7). The efficacy was higher among those with at least one family member who received the offer (21.1 percentage point increase (95% CI: 19.9-22.3). The difference in efficacy was statistically significant (21.1-6.5 = 14.6%; 95% CI: 9.3-19.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Micro-incentives appear to have synergistic effects when distributed within family networks. These effects support family network-based approaches for the design of health interventions.

Does engagement in HIV care affect screening, diagnosis, and control of noncommunicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

Low- and middle-income countries are facing a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Providing HIV treatment may also provide opportunities to increase access to NCD services in under-resourced environments. We sought to investigate whether reported use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with increased screening, diagnosis, treatment, and/or control of diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, or cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

We searched 10 electronic literature databases for studies published between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2022 using a comprehensive search strategy. We sought studies reporting on screening, diagnosis, treatment, and/or control of NCDs of interest by ART use among non-pregnant adults with HIV ≥16 years of age in SSA. Random effects models were used to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) of the risk of diagnosis by ART status and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), where appropriate.

Results

Twenty-six studies, describing 13,570 PLWH in SSA, 61% of whom were receiving ART, were included. ART use was associated with a small but imprecise increase in the odds of diabetes diagnosis (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.71, 1.60) and an increase in the odds of hypertension diagnosis (OR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.42, 3.09). We found minimal data on the association between ART use and screening, treatment, or control of NCDs.

Conclusion

Despite a potentially higher NCD risk among PLWH and regional efforts to integrate NCD and HIV care, evidence to support effective care integration models is lacking.

A genome-wide CRISPR screen in human prostate cancer cells reveals drivers of macrophage-mediated cell killing and positions AR as a tumor-intrinsic immunomodulator

The crosstalk between prostate cancer (PCa) cells and the tumor microenvironment plays a pivotal role in disease progression and metastasis and could provide novel opportunities for patient treatment. Macrophages are the most abundant immune cells in the prostate tumor microenvironment (TME) and are capable of killing tumor cells. To identify genes in the tumor cells that are critical for macrophage-mediated killing, we performed a genome-wide co-culture CRISPR screen and identified AR, PRKCD, and multiple components of the NF-κB pathway as hits, whose expression in the tumor cell are essential for being targeted and killed by macrophages. These data position AR signaling as an immunomodulator, and confirmed by androgen-deprivation experiments, that rendered hormone-deprived tumor cells resistant to macrophage-mediated killing. Proteomic analyses showed a downregulation of oxidative phosphorylation in the PRKCD- and IKBKG-KO cells compared to the control, suggesting impaired mitochondrial function, which was confirmed by electron microscopy analyses. Furthermore, phosphoproteomic analyses revealed that all hits impaired ferroptosis signaling, which was validated transcriptionally using samples from a neoadjuvant clinical trial with the AR-inhibitor enzalutamide. Collectively, our data demonstrate that AR functions together with the PRKCD and the NF-κB pathway to evade macrophage-mediated killing. As hormonal intervention represents the mainstay therapy for treatment of prostate cancer patients, our findings may have direct implications and provide a plausible explanation for the clinically observed persistence of tumor cells despite androgen deprivation therapy.

HIV treatment-as-prevention and its effect on incidence of HIV among cisgender gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in Australia: a 10-year longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although HIV treatment-as-prevention reduces individual-level HIV transmission, population-level effects are unclear. We aimed to investigate whether treatment-as-prevention could achieve population-level reductions in HIV incidence among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) in Australia's most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.

METHODS

TAIPAN was a longitudinal cohort study using routine health record data extracted from 69 health services that provide HIV diagnosis and care to GBM in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. Data from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2019, were linked within and between services and over time. TAIPAN collected data from all cisgender GBM who attended participating services, resided in New South Wales or Victoria, and were 16 years or older. Two cohorts were established: one included HIV-positive patients, and the other included HIV-negative patients. Population prevalence of viral suppression (plasma HIV viral load <200 RNA copies per μL) was calculated by combining direct measures of viral load among the HIV-positive cohort with estimates for undiagnosed GBM. The primary outcome of HIV incidence was measured directly via repeat testing in the HIV-negative cohort. Poisson regression analyses with generalised estimating equations assessed temporal associations between population prevalence of viral suppression and HIV incidence among the subsample of HIV-negative GBM with multiple instances of HIV testing.

FINDINGS

At baseline, the final sample (n=101 772) included 90 304 HIV-negative and 11 468 HIV-positive GBM. 59 234 patients in the HIV-negative cohort had two or more instances of HIV testing and were included in the primary analysis. Over the study period, population prevalence of viral suppression increased from 69·27% (95% CI 66·41-71·96) to 88·31% (86·37-90·35), while HIV incidence decreased from 0·64 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·55-0·76) to 0·22 per 100 person-years (0·17-0·28). Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, treatment-as-prevention achieved significant population-level reductions in HIV incidence among GBM: a 1% increase in population prevalence of viral suppression corresponded with a 6% decrease in HIV incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·93-0·96; p<0·0001). PrEP was introduced in 2016 with 17·60% uptake among GBM that year, which increased to 36·38% in 2019. The relationship between population prevalence of viral suppression and HIV incidence was observed before the availability of PrEP (IRR 0·98, 95% CI 0·96-0·99; p<0·0001) and was even stronger after the introduction of PrEP (0·80, 0·70-0·93; p=0·0030).

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that further investment in HIV treatment, especially alongside PrEP, can improve public health by reducing HIV incidence among GBM.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Evaluating use of mass-media communication intervention 'MTV-Shuga' on increased awareness and demand for HIV and sexual health services by adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: an observational study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of exposure to MTV Shuga:Down South' (MTVShuga-DS) during the scale-up of combination HIV-prevention interventions on awareness and uptake of sexual reproductive health (SRH) and HIV-prevention services by adolescent girls and young women (AGYW).

DESIGN

One longitudinal and three cross-sectional surveys of representative samples of AGYW.

SETTING

AGYW in four South African districts with high HIV prevalence (>10%) (May 2017 and September 2019).

PARTICIPANTS

6311 AGYW aged 12-24.

MEASURES

Using logistic regression, we measured the relationship between exposure to MTV Shuga-DS and awareness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), condom use at last sex, uptake of HIV-testing or contraception, and incident pregnancy or herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) infection.

RESULTS

Within the rural cohort 2184 (85.5%) of eligible sampled individuals were enrolled, of whom 92.6% had at least one follow-up visit; the urban cross-sectional surveys enrolled 4127 (22.6%) of eligible sampled individuals. Self-report of watching at least one MTV Shuga-DS episode was 14.1% (cohort) and 35.8% (cross-section), while storyline recall was 5.5% (cohort) and 6.7% (cross-section). In the cohort, after adjustment (for HIV-prevention intervention-exposure, age, education, socioeconomic status), MTVShuga-DS exposure was associated with increased PrEP awareness (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.06, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.70), contraception uptake (aOR 2.08, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.98) and consistent condom use (aOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.93), but not with HIV testing (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.21) or acquiring HSV-2 (aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.38). In the cross-sections, MTVShuga-DS was associated with greater PrEP awareness (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.43), but no other outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Among both urban and rural AGYW in South Africa, MTVShuga-DS exposure was associated with increased PrEP awareness and improved demand for some HIV prevention and SRH technologies but not sexual health outcomes. However, exposure to MTVShuga-DS was low. Given these positive indications, supportive programming may be required to raise exposure and allow future evaluation of edu-drama impact in this setting.

Long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence in India: an application of joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses: a gendered perspective

Background

Monitoring the transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a population is fundamental for identifying the key population and designing prevention interventions. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the gender disparities in HIV incidence and the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of HIV in India for identifying the predictors that might have led to changes in the last three decades.

Data and methods

This study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify the magnitude of the changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV. The average annual percentage changes in the incidence were computed, and the age-period-cohort analysis was performed.

Results

A decreasing trend in the overall estimates of age-standardized HIV incidence rates were observed in the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly declined from its peak in 1997 to 2019 (38.0 and 27.6 among males and females per 100,000 in 1997 to 5.4 and 4.6, respectively, in 2019). The APC was estimated to be 2.12 among males and 1.24 among females for the period 1990-2019. In recent years, although the gender gap in HIV incidence has reduced, females were observed to bear a proportionately higher burden of HIV incidence. Age effect showed a decline in HIV incidence by 91.1 and 70.1% among males and females aged between 15-19 years and 75-79 years. During the entire period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, the RR of HIV incidence decreased by 36.2 and 33.7% among males and females, respectively.

Conclusion

India is experiencing a decline in new HIV infections in recent years. However, the decline is steeper for males than for females. Findings highlight the necessity of providing older women and young women at risk with effective HIV prevention. This study emphasizes the need for large-scale HIV primary prevention efforts for teenage girls and young women.

A review of public health, social and ethical implications of voluntary medical male circumcision programs for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa

Ideally, the benefits of public health interventions should outweigh any associated harms, burdens, and adverse unintended consequences. The intended benefit of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs in eastern and southern Africa (ESA) is the reduction of HIV infections. We review the literature for evidence of reductions in HIV incidence, evaluate the extent to which decreases in HIV incidence can be reasonably attributed to VMMC programs, and summarize social harms and ethical concerns associated with these programs. Review findings suggest that HIV incidence had been declining across ESA since before the large-scale rollout of VMMC as a public health intervention, and that this decline may be due to the combined effects of HIV prevention and treatment interventions, such as expanded antiretroviral therapy. The independent effect of VMMC programs in reducing HIV infections at the population level remains unknown. On the other hand, VMMC-associated evidence is increasing for the existence of negative social impacts such as stigmatization and/or discrimination, and ethically problematic practices, including lack of informed consent. We conclude that the relationship between the benefits and burdens of VMMC programs may be more unfavorable than what has been commonly suggested by proponents of global VMMC campaigns.

Transcriptomic Analysis of the Ocular Posterior Segment Completes a Cell Atlas of the Human Eye

Although the visual system extends through the brain, most vision loss originates from defects in the eye. Its central element is the neural retina, which senses light, processes visual signals, and transmits them to the rest of the brain through the optic nerve (ON). Surrounding the retina are numerous other structures, conventionally divided into anterior and posterior segments. Here we used high-throughput single nucleus RNA sequencing (snRNA-seq) to classify and characterize cells in the extraretinal components of the posterior segment: ON, optic nerve head (ONH), peripheral sclera, peripapillary sclera (PPS), choroid, and retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). Defects in each of these tissues are associated with blinding diseases - for example, glaucoma (ONH and PPS), optic neuritis (ON), retinitis pigmentosa (RPE), and age-related macular degeneration (RPE and choroid). From ∼151,000 single nuclei, we identified 37 transcriptomically distinct cell types, including multiple types of astrocytes, oligodendrocytes, fibroblasts, and vascular endothelial cells. Our analyses revealed a differential distribution of many cell types among distinct structures. Together with our previous analyses of the anterior segment and retina, the new data complete a "Version 1" cell atlas of the human eye. We used this atlas to map the expression of >180 genes associated with the risk of developing glaucoma, which is known to involve ocular tissues in both anterior and posterior segments as well as neural retina. Similar methods can be used to investigate numerous additional ocular diseases, many of which are currently untreatable.

Epstein-Barr virus oral shedding and viremia and their association with oral hairy leukoplakia in HIV+ individuals

OBJECTIVE

To assess the oral shedding and viremia of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in HIV-positive patients and their relationship with oral hairy leukoplakia (OHL).

METHODOLOGY

A total of 94 HIV-positive patients were included in the study, in which blood and saliva samples were collected for EBV quantification. Data on gender, age, time of HIV seropositivity, combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), CD4+ T-cell counts, and HIV viral load were collected. OHL diagnosis was based on histopathological examination and EBV in situ hybridization.

RESULTS

The EBV load in the 94 HIV-positive patients was higher in saliva than in blood (2.4 and 1.6, respectively), and there was a positive correlation between EBV oral shedding and viremia (p = 0.001). Twenty (21.27%) patients had OHL and also a higher EBV load in saliva (mean log₁₀  = 3.11) compared to those who had no OHL (p = 0.045). Presence of OHL was only associated with age (p = 0.030).

CONCLUSION

In HIV-positive patients, the presence of OHL was associated with EBV oral shedding but not with viremia, regardless of the amount of circulating CD4+ T cells.

Mortality in rural coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a 16-year descriptive analysis

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003-2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003-2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15-54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1-4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was ±10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2018, mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003-2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

Grey matter reshaping of language-related regions depends on tumor lateralization

A brain tumor in the left hemisphere can decrease language laterality as assessed with fMRI. However, it remains unclear whether or not this decreased language laterality is associated with a structural reshaping of the grey matter, particularly within the language network. Here, we examine if the disruption of language hubs exclusively affects macrostructural properties of contralateral homologues (as suggested by previous research), or whether it affects both hemispheres. This study uses voxel-based morphometry applied to high-resolution MR T1-weighted MPRAGE images from 31 adult patients left-dominant for language. Eighteen patients had brain tumors in the left hemisphere, and 13 had tumors in the right hemisphere. A cohort of 71 healthy individuals matched on age and sex was used as a baseline. We defined 10 ROIs per hemisphere known to subserve language function. Two separate repeated-measures ANOVAs were conducted with the volume per region as the dependent variables. For the patients, tumor lateralization (right versus left) served as a between-subject factor. The current study demonstrated that the presence of a brain tumor generates a global volumetric change affecting left language regions and their contralateral homologues. These changes are mediated by the lateralization of the lesion. Our findings suggest that compensatory functional mechanisms are supported by the rearrangement of the grey matter, although future longitudinal research should determine the temporal course of such changes.

EstroGene database reveals diverse temporal, context-dependent and directional estrogen receptor regulomes in breast cancer

As one of the most successful cancer therapeutic targets, estrogen receptor-α (ER/ESR1) has been extensively studied in decade-long. Sequencing technological advances have enabled genome-wide analysis of ER action. However, reproducibility is limited by different experimental design. Here, we established the EstroGene database through centralizing 246 experiments from 136 transcriptomic, cistromic and epigenetic datasets focusing on estradiol-treated ER activation across 19 breast cancer cell lines. We generated a user-friendly browser ( https://estrogene.org/ ) for data visualization and gene inquiry under user-defined experimental conditions and statistical thresholds. Notably, documentation-based meta-analysis revealed a considerable lack of experimental details. Comparison of independent RNA-seq or ER ChIP-seq data with the same design showed large variability and only strong effects could be consistently detected. We defined temporal estrogen response metasignatures and showed the association with specific transcriptional factors, chromatin accessibility and ER heterogeneity. Unexpectedly, harmonizing 146 transcriptomic analyses uncovered a subset of E2-bidirectionally regulated genes, which linked to immune surveillance in the clinical setting. Furthermore, we defined context dependent E2 response programs in MCF7 and T47D cell lines, the two most frequently used models in the field. Collectively, the EstroGene database provides an informative resource to the cancer research community and reveals a diverse mode of ER signaling.

Male Partner Opinions of the Dapivirine Vaginal Ring Used During an Open-Label Extension HIV Prevention Trial in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

The dapivirine vaginal ring ("the ring") reduced HIV acquisition by about 35% in phase III trials, with modeling from open-label extension trials estimating 50% HIV protection with consistent use. The ring may be used without male partner knowledge. The Assessment of ASPIRE and HOPE Adherence (AHA) substudy aimed to understand the impact of sociocontextual issues on ring adherence. This subanalysis provides insight into disclosure and male partner influence on ring acceptability.

METHODS

Data were collected using 4 focus group discussions with 18 male partners of phase III trial participants at 2 sites in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Qualitative data were coded, summarized by urban vs. rural location, and analyzed thematically.

RESULTS

Male partners aged 23-49 years wanted to be informed about the ring use to maintain the trust in their relationships. Their initial response to the ring was characterized by fear due to perceived impact of the ring on their female partner's reproductive system, their penile safety, and that the ring would encourage women to engage in unprotected sex and infidelity. Over time and with information and experience with having a partner who had used the vaginal ring, this fear transformed to support for women to have their own HIV prevention option.

CONCLUSION

Male partners supported the ring as an HIV prevention method for women but wanted to be informed about its use. Engaging male partners on female-initiated HIV prevention methods and increased education among rural men may contribute to improved partner support and facilitate women's consistent use.

HIV incidence and associated risk factors in adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, high HIV incidence rates in adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) persist despite extensive HIV prevention efforts.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 2,710 HIV-negative AGYW (15-24 years) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa were interviewed at baseline and followed-up approximately 18 months later (2014-2017). Associations between HIV seroconversion and socio-demographic and behavioural variables measured at baseline and follow-up were examined using Cox regression and a proximate determinants framework. Inter-relationships between determinants were measured using logistic regression. Separate models were built for 15-19 and 20-24-year-olds.

RESULTS

Weighted HIV incidence was 3.92 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 3.27-4.69; 163 seroconversions over 4,016 person-years). Among 15-19-year-olds, absence of family support (adjusted hazards ratio (aHR): 3.82 (1.89-7.72)), having a circumcised partner (aHR: 0.5 (0.27-0.94)) or one who was HIV-positive and not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) (aHR: 6.21 (2.56-15.06)) were associated with HIV incidence. Those reporting an absence of family support were also more likely to report >1 partner during follow-up (odds ratio (OR): 2.7(1.11-6.57)). Among 20-24-year-olds, failure to complete secondary school (aHR: 1.89 (1.11-3.21)), inconsistent condom use (aHR: 3.01 (1.14-7.96)) and reporting partner(s) who were HIV-positive and not on ART (aHR: 7.75 (3.06-19.66)) were associated with HIV incidence. Failure to complete secondary school among 20-24-year-olds was associated with inconsistent condom use (OR: 1.82 (1.20-2.77)) and reporting an HIV-positive partner not on ART (OR: 3.53(1.59-7.82)) or an uncircumcised partner (OR: 1.39 (1.08-1.82).

CONCLUSION

Absence of family support and incomplete schooling are associated with risky sexual behaviours and HIV acquisition in AGYW. In addition, partner-level prevention-condom use, medical circumcision, and viral suppression-continue to play an important role in reducing HIV risk in AGYW. These findings support the use of combination HIV prevention programs that consider structural as well as biological and behavioural HIV risk factors in their design.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

End-user research in support of long-acting systemic antiretroviral delivery systems: insights from qualitative research with providers and target users in South Africa

BACKGROUND

While oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to reduce the risk of HIV, challenges such as adhering to a daily-dosing regimen and persistence have emerged as barriers for at-risks populations in South Africa. This qualitative research sought to investigate perceptions of and preferences for a long-acting, biodegradable implantable PrEP product designed to address these barriers.

METHODS

To identify and understand motivators, barriers, and preferences for the PrEP implant, we conducted qualitative in-depth interviews (IDIs) among health care providers (HCPs) and target end-users (young women, adolescent girls, and female sex workers) in urban and rural/peri-urban regions of Gauteng Province, South Africa. The IDIs focused on defining values, beliefs, habits, lifestyles, influencers, and information channels for potential PrEP implant end-users.

RESULTS

We conducted 36 IDIs across health care providers and target end-user respondent segments. Respondents had generally positive reactions to the PrEP implant. Most end-users felt that some undesirable aspects of the implant (e.g., side effects, pain during insertion, potential scarring, and inability to remove implant) would be offset by having a highly effective, and long-lasting HIV prevention product. Although some HCPs believed the implantable PrEP would lead to increases in promiscuity and risky sexual behavior, most HCPs saw value in the PrEP implant's long duration of protection, its biodegradability, and the likelihood of higher adherence relative to oral PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is a first step toward further research needed to demonstrate the demand for a biodegradable, long-acting implantable PrEP and suggests such a product would be accepted by end-users and HCPs in South Africa. This study indicates the need to develop more convenient, discreet, long-acting, and highly effective biomedical HIV prevention options for at-risk populations.

Deep learning and social network analysis elucidate drivers of HIV transmission in a high-incidence cohort of people who inject drugs

Globally, people who inject drugs (PWID) experience some of the fastest-growing HIV epidemics. Network-based approaches represent a powerful tool for understanding and combating these epidemics; however, detailed social network studies are limited and pose analytical challenges. We collected longitudinal social (injection partners) and spatial (injection venues) network information from 2512 PWID in New Delhi, India. We leveraged network analysis and graph neural networks (GNNs) to uncover factors associated with HIV transmission and identify optimal intervention delivery points. Longitudinal HIV incidence was 21.3 per 100 person-years. Overlapping community detection using GNNs revealed seven communities, with HIV incidence concentrated within one community. The injection venue most strongly associated with incidence was found to overlap six of the seven communities, suggesting that an intervention deployed at this one location could reach the majority of the sample. These findings highlight the utility of network analysis and deep learning in HIV program design.

Analysing behavioural outcome effectiveness in a musical theatre-based HIV/AIDS intervention among South African farm workers

In 2005, an applied theatre community outreach programme was launched to address low levels of HIV/AIDS awareness among farm workers in the Cape Winelands of South Africa. In cooperation with HIV testing organizations, the Lucky, the Hero mini-musical promoted regular HIV testing, condom use and acceptance of people living with HIV until being retired in 2017. Applying principles of the health belief model to interview data collected in 2015 from former Lucky, the Hero participants, this paper examines the effectiveness of the theatre production to achieve the behavioural outcomes of (i) encouraging regular HIV testing and ongoing awareness of HIV serostatus, and (ii) reducing AIDS-related social stigma. The findings suggest that the interventions were successful in persuading participants to know their HIV status immediately following the shows, as well as potentially contributing to a reduction of community-based external social stigma. However, the interventions were unable to maintain engagement with these behavioural outcomes in the years following the performances, resulting in low adherence to regular HIV testing and inconsistent condom use. Additionally, ongoing social and structural barriers to regular HIV testing and the potential for self-imposed HIV-related stigma were highlighted during the discussions. While applied theatre can be an effective avenue for HIV awareness and prevention, the paper demonstrates the importance of creating and maintaining strong community networks to support continued engagement with health-related behavioural outcomes.

Social normative origins of the taboo gap and implications for adolescent risk for HIV infection in Zambia

Zambian Demographic and Health Survey data reveal that increased discordance between professed attitudes and measures of behaviour regarding premarital sex among adults is strongly associated with increased risk of HIV in adolescents, particularly girls. We hypothesised that this was due to the reluctance to talk about premarital sex, resulting in a situation we call the “taboo gap” where sexual behaviour is a forbidden topic and adolescents feel unable to seek advice or sexual and reproductive health services. Our analysis revealed that the taboo gap is rooted in harmful gender norms that are perpetuated by schools, churches, cultural influences, development programmes and health systems. Challenges like food insecurity and household poverty may place girls in positions where they are vulnerable to sexual exploitation, increasing their risk of exposure to HIV. Unmarried adolescents, particularly girls, report being ridiculed when they go to reproductive health clinics, which discourages them from seeking care in the future. Strengthening peer support and parent-child interactions are important programmatic elements. We conclude that discordance serves as a novel measure and harbinger for the presence of gender norms which generated a taboo gap that impeded carseeking and increased risk for HIV among adolescents, especially girls, in Zambia. We propose that successful interventions must involve a multifaceted, gender transformative approach which engages peers and stakeholders in schools, churches, clinics, and families, particularly parents, to reduce the gendered gap in HIV risk and transmission.

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Premarital sex attitude-behaviour discordance is associated with risk of adolescent HIV.

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Taboo gap occurs where sexual behaviour is a forbidden topic and impedes care-seeking.

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Taboo gap was generated in schools, churches, culture, and development programmes.

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Unmarried adolescents, especially girls, risk sanction in seeking reproductive care.

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Strengthening peer support and parent-child interactions are important programmatically.

Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community

Background: South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in the world, with HIV prevalence and transmission patterns varying greatly between provinces. Transmission between regions is still poorly understood, but phylodynamics of HIV-1 evolution can reveal how many infections are attributable to contacts outside a given community. We analysed whole genome HIV-1 genetic sequences to estimate incidence and the proportion of transmissions between communities in Hlabisa, a rural South African community. Methods: We separately analysed HIV-1 for gag, pol, and env genes sampled from 2,503 PLWHIV. We estimated time-scaled phylogenies by maximum likelihood under a molecular clock model. Phylodynamic models were fitted to time-scaled trees to estimate transmission rates, effective number of infections, incidence through time, and the proportion of infections imported to Hlabisa. We also partitioned time-scaled phylogenies with significantly different distributions of coalescent times. Results: Phylodynamic analyses showed similar trends in epidemic growth rates between 1980 and 1990. Model-based estimates of incidence and effective number of infections were consistent across genes. Parameter estimates with gag were generally smaller than those estimated with pol and env. When estimating the proportions of new infections in Hlabisa from immigration or transmission from external sources, our posterior median estimates were 85% (95% credible interval (CI) = 78%–92%) for gag, 62% (CI = 40%–78%) for pol, and 77% (CI = 58%–90%) for env in 2015. Analysis of phylogenetic partitions by gene showed that most close global reference sequences clustered within a single partition. This suggests local evolving epidemics or potential unmeasured heterogeneity in the population. Conclusions: We estimated consistent epidemic dynamic trends for gag, pol and env genes using phylodynamic models. There was a high probability that new infections were not attributable to endogenous transmission within Hlabisa, suggesting high inter-connectedness between communities in rural South Africa.

DREAMS impact on HIV status knowledge and sexual risk among cohorts of young women in Kenya and South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We sought evidence of DREAMS' impact on uptake of services and sexual risk among adolescent-girls-and-young-women (AGYW).

DESIGN

Cohorts of AGYW aged 13-22 years were randomly selected in 2017-2018 and followed-up to 2019; 1081 in Nairobi, Kenya;1171 in Gem, western Kenya;and 2184 in uMkhanyakude, South Africa.

METHODS

Outcomes were knowledge of HIV status, condomless sex (past 12 months), lifetime partners, transactional sex (past 12 months), and awareness and use of condoms and pre-exposure-prophylaxis (PrEP). Using a causal inference framework, we estimated the proportions with each outcome if all vs. none were DREAMS invitees by 2018.

RESULTS

Among AGYW followed up in 2019, the percentage invited to DREAMS by 2018 was 74, 57, and 53% in Nairobi, Gem, and uMkhanyakude, respectively. By 2018, the estimated percentages of AGYW who would know their HIV status, comparing the scenarios that all vs. none were DREAMS invitees, were 86 vs. 56% in Nairobi, 80 vs. 68% in Gem, and 56 vs. 49% in uMkhanyakude. By 2019, awareness of condoms and PrEP was high among DREAMS invitees, but recent participation in condom promotion activities was less than 50% and recent PrEP use was around 0-10%. In Gem, there was evidence of a reduction attributable to DREAMS in condomless sex, and among younger AGYW in the number of lifetime partners;in Nairobi evidence of a reduction in condomless sex among sexually active older AGYW;and in uMkhanya-kude no evidence that DREAMS changed these outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Alongside sustaining high levels of knowledge of HIV status, more is needed to link AGYW into prevention methods such as PrEP and condoms.Comprehensive HIV prevention promotes safer sexual partnerships, but poverty, social norms, and inequalities limit AGYW's prevention choices.

The association of exposure to DREAMS on sexually acquiring or transmitting HIV amongst adolescent girls and young women living in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

We investigate how risk of sexually acquiring or transmitting HIV in adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) changed following the real-world implementation of DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS free, Mentored and Safe) HIV prevention programme.

DESIGN

A representative population-based prospective cohort study of AGYW living in rural KwaZulu-Natal.

METHODS

Between 2017 and 2019, we interviewed a random sample of AGYW aged 13-22 years annually. We measured exposure to DREAMS as self-reported receipt of an invitation to participate and/or participation in DREAMS activities that were provided by DREAMS implementing organizations. HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) statuses were ascertained through blood tests on Dried Blood Spot (DBS). We used multivariable regression analysis to assess the association between exposure to DREAMS and risk of acquiring HIV: measured as incident HSV-2 (a proxy of sexual risk) and incident HIV;and the risk of sexually transmitting HIV: measured as being HIV positive with a detectable HIV viral load (≥50 copie/ml) on the last available DBS. We adjusted for sociodemographic, sexual relationship, and migration.

RESULTS

Two thousand one hundred and eighty-four (86.4%) of those eligible agreed to participate and 2016 (92.3%) provided data for at least one follow-up time-point. One thousand and thirty (54%) were exposed to DREAMS;HIV and HSV-2 incidence were 2.2/100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.66-2.86] and 17.3/100 person-years (95% CI 15.5-19.4), respectively. There was no evidence that HSV-2 and HIV incidence were lower in those exposed to DREAMS: adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 0.96 (95% CI 0.76-1.23 and 0.83 (95% CI 0.46-1.52), respectively. HIV viral load was detectable for 169 (8.9%) respondents;there was no evidence this was lower in those exposed to DREAMS with an adjusted risk difference, compared with those not exposed to DREAMS, of 0.99% (95% CI-1.52 to 3.82]. Participants who lived in peri-urban/ urban setting were more likely to have incident HIV and transmissible HIV. Both HSV-2 incidence and the transmissible HIV were associated with older age and ever having sex. Findings did not differ substantively by respondent age group.

CONCLUSION

DREAMS exposure was not associated with measurable reductions in risk of sexually acquiring or transmitting HIV amongst a representative cohort of AGYW in rural South Africa.

Predictors of migration in an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African community: evidence from a population-based cohort (2005-2017)

Globally, South Africa hosts the highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the unique legacy of internal labour migration continues to be a major driver of the regional epidemic, interrupting treatment-as-prevention efforts. The study examined levels, trends, and predictors of migration in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using population-based surveillance data from 2005 through 2017. We followed 69 604 adult participants aged 15-49 years and recorded their migration events (i.e., out-migration from the surveillance area) in 423 038 person-years over 525 397 observations. Multiple failure Cox-regression models were used to measure the risk of migration by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, educational status, marital status, HIV, and community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Overall, 69% of the population cohort experienced at least one migration event during the follow-up period. The average incidence rate of migration was 9.96 events and 13.23 events per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively. Migration rates declined from 2005 to 2008 then peaked in 2012 for both women and men. Adjusting for other covariates, the risk of migration was 3.4-times higher among young women aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 3:19-3.57), and 2.9-times higher among young men aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (aHR = 2.86, 95% CI:2.69-3.04). There was a 9% and 27% decrease in risk of migration among both women (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83 - 0.99) and men (aHR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.66 - 0.82) respectively per every 1% increase in community ART coverage. Young unmarried women including those living with HIV, migrated at a magnitude similar to that of their male counterparts, and lowered as ART coverage increased over time, reflecting the role of improved HIV services across space in reducing out-migration. A deeper understanding of the characteristics of a migrating population provides critical information towards identifying and addressing gaps in the HIV prevention and care continuum in an era of high mobility.

Testing a social network approach to promote HIV self-testing and linkage to care among fishermen at Lake Victoria: study protocol for the Owete cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Nearly 50% of men living with HIV in many countries are unaware of their HIV status; men also have lower uptake of HIV treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). In SSA, highly mobile men such as those working in fishing communities alongside Lake Victoria have low uptake of HIV testing and low rates of linkage to HIV treatment and PrEP, despite increasing availability of these services. HIV self-testing (HIVST) kits hold promise for overcoming barriers to HIV testing and linkage to services for HIV-positive and HIV-negative men. We describe here a protocol for an HIV status-neutral, social network-based approach to promote HIV testing, linkage to care and prevention, and better health outcomes, including adherence, in fishermen around Lake Victoria.

METHODS

Utilizing beach management unit (BMU) registries of fishermen operating in three Lake Victoria fishing communities in Siaya County, Kenya, we completed a census and social network mapping to identify close social networks of men. Network clusters identified by a socially-central lead ("promotor") and selected to ensure maximal separation between treatment and control will be randomized. Promotors in both arms will receive basic HIV training; intervention promotors are further trained in HIVST to distribute kits to their cluster, while control promotors will distribute to their cluster vouchers for free HIVST at nearby clinics. We will test whether these promoters can enhance linkage to ART and PrEP after self-testing, thereby addressing a key limitation of HIVST. We will also measure 6- and 12-month viral load in those living with HIV and PrEP adherence among those without HIV via urine tenofovir levels as objective markers of adherence.

DISCUSSION

This study has the potential to improve HIV health and promote HIV prevention among a hard to reach, at-risk, and highly mobile population of men in Western Kenya-a critical population in Kenya's HIV prevention and treatment program. Further, if successful, this innovative social networks-based model could be scaled at the regional level to address HIV prevention and care among similarly at-risk populations of men in eastern Africa and inland fisheries settings across the continent.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Self-Test Strategies and Linkage Incentives to Improve ART and PrEP Uptake in Men, registered on February 26, 2021, registration # NCT04772469 .

The Effect of HIV Programs in South Africa on National HIV Incidence Trends, 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown HIV incidence declines at a population level in several African countries. However, these studies have not directly quantified the extent to which incidence declines are attributable to different HIV programs.

METHODS

We calibrated a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic to age- and sex-specific data from antenatal surveys, household surveys, and death registration, using a Bayesian approach. The model was also parameterized using data on self-reported condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment (ART). Model estimates of HIV incidence were compared against the incidence rates that would have been expected had each program not been implemented.

RESULTS

The model estimated incidence in 15-49 year olds of 0.84% (95% CI: 0.75% to 0.96%) at the start of 2019. This represents a 62% reduction (95% CI: 55% to 66%) relative to 2000, a 47% reduction (95% CI: 42% to 51%) relative to 2010, and a 73% reduction (95% CI: 68% to 77%) relative to the incidence that would have been expected in 2019 in the absence of any interventions. The reduction in incidence in 2019 because of interventions was greatest for ART and condom promotion, with VMMC and behavior change after HIV testing having relatively modest impacts. HIV program impacts differed significantly by age and sex, with condoms and VMMC having greatest impact in youth, and overall incidence reductions being greater in men than in women.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV incidence in South Africa has declined substantially since 2000, with ART and condom promotion contributing most significantly to this decline.

Protocol: Mapping social networks, social influence and sexual health among youth in rural KwaZulu-Natal, the Sixhumene cohort study

Background: Sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections are strongly affected by social connections, and interventions are often adapted more readily when diffused through social networks. However, evidence on how young people acquire ideas and change behaviour through the influence of important social contacts is not well understood in high-HIV-prevalence settings, with the result that past peer-led HIV-prevention interventions have had limited success.

Methods: We therefore designed a cohort study (named Sixhumene or ‘we are connected’) to follow young people in three rural and small-town communities in uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and the people that these youth identify as important in their lives. We will interview them five times over three years, at each visit collecting information on their socioeconomic, social and sexual health lives, and testing them for HIV and herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2). We will use this information to understand how these young people’s sexual health decisions are formed. This will include evaluating how poor sexual health outcomes are correlated across social networks, how youth mimic the attitudes and behaviours of those around them, who is at greatest risk of acquiring HIV and HSV-2, and who might be most influential within communities and thus best able to promote protective interventions.

Discussion: The information gathered through this study will allow us to describe social connection and influence spread through these real-world social networks, and how this leads to sexual health outcomes. Sixhumene will provide vital inputs for mathematical models of communities and spreading processes, as well as inform the development of effective interventions to protect the sexual health of community members through appropriate targeting with optimised messaging requiring fewer resources.

Isisekelo Sempilo study protocol for the effectiveness of HIV prevention embedded in sexual health with or without peer navigator support (Thetha Nami) to reduce prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst adolescents and young adults in rural KwaZulu-Natal: a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) through universal test and treat (UTT) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) substantially reduces HIV-related mortality, morbidity and incidence. Effective individual-level prevention modalities have not translated into population-level impact in southern Africa due to sub-optimal coverage among adolescents and youth who are hard to engage. We aim to investigate the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary population level effectiveness of HIV prevention services with or without peer support to reduce prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst adolescents and young adults in KwaZulu-Natal.

Methods

We are conducting a 2 × 2 factorial trial among young men and women aged 16–29 years, randomly selected from the Africa Health Research Institute demographic surveillance area. Participants are randomly allocated to one of four intervention combinations: 1) Standard of Care (SOC): nurse-led services for HIV testing plus ART if positive or PrEP for those eligible and negative; 2) Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH): Baseline self-collected vaginal and urine samples with study-organized clinic appointments for results, treatment and delivery of HIV testing, ART and PrEP integrated with SRH services; 3) Peer-support: Study referral of participants to a peer navigator to assess their health, social and educational needs and provide risk-informed HIV prevention, including facilitating clinic attendance; or 4) SRH + peer-support.

The primary outcomes for effectiveness are: (1) the proportion of individuals with infectious HIV at 12 months and (2) uptake of risk-informed comprehensive HIV prevention services within 60 days of enrolment. At 12 months, all participants will be contacted at home and the study team will collect a dried blood spot for HIV ELISA and HIV viral load testing.

Discussion

This trial will enable us to understand the relative importance of SRH and peer support in creating demand for effective and risk informed biomedical HIV prevention and preliminary data on their effectiveness on reducing the prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst all adolescents and youth.

Trial registration

Trial Registry: clincialtrials.gov. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04532307. Registered: March 2020.

Quantifying rates of HIV-1 flow between risk groups and geographic locations in Kenya: A country-wide phylogenetic study

In Kenya, HIV-1 key populations including men having sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSW) are thought to significantly contribute to HIV-1 transmission in the wider, mostly heterosexual (HET) HIV-1 transmission network. However, clear data on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between these groups are limited. We aimed to empirically quantify rates of HIV-1 flow between key populations and the HET population, as well as between different geographic regions to determine HIV-1 'hotspots' and their contribution to HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. We used maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian inference to analyse 4058 HIV-1 pol sequences (representing 0.3 per cent of the epidemic in Kenya) sampled 1986-2019 from individuals of different risk groups and regions in Kenya. We found 89 per cent within-risk group transmission and 11 per cent mixing between risk groups, cyclic HIV-1 exchange between adjoining geographic provinces and strong evidence of HIV-1 dissemination from (i) West-to-East (i.e. higher-to-lower HIV-1 prevalence regions), and (ii) heterosexual-to-key populations. Low HIV-1 prevalence regions and key populations are sinks rather than major sources of HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. Targeting key populations in Kenya needs to occur concurrently with strengthening interventions in the general epidemic.

Race, place, and HIV: The legacies of apartheid and racist policy in South Africa

Black South Africans accounted for 6.2 out of 6.4 million people living with HIV in South Africa in 2012, highlighting extreme racial disparities in HIV infection. These racial disparities are the result of structural and historical factors, specifically, the racist policies which were facilitated by segregation before, during, and after Apartheid. First, we describe the theoretical context of how racist policies and segregation are linked to HIV prevalence. Next, using data from a 2012 national survey of South Africans (SABSSM IV) and Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), we describe the race-specific geospatial distribution of HIV in South Africa, provide empirical evidence for the impact of Apartheid on important risk factors for HIV infection, and describe the relationship between these risk factors and HIV within racial groups. Using multilevel logistic regression, we find that segregation increases the odds of HIV infection among Black South Africans, even after adjusting for many covariates which are sometimes blamed, in place of structural factors, for a higher HIV prevalence in Black South Africans. We found that the estimated odds of infection in the most segregated municipality was 1.95 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.32) times the odds of infection in the least segregated municipality for Black South Africans. In addition to segregation, we also find other covariates to be differentially associated with HIV infection depending on race, such as gender, age, and sexual behavior. We also find that the HIV infection odds ratio comparing Black and Coloured (i.e., multiple ethnic groups with mixed ancestries from Africa, Asia, and Europe) South Africans varies over space. These results continue to build evidence for the influence of structural and historical factors on the modern geospatial and demographic distribution of HIV.

HIV incidence and prevalence among adults aged 15-64 years in Rwanda: Results from the Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (RPHIA) and District-level Modeling, 2019

OBJECTIVES

The 2018-2019 Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (RPHIA) was conducted to measure national HIV incidence and prevalence. District-level estimates were modeled to inform resources allocation.

METHODS

RPHIA was a nationally representative cross-sectional household survey. Consenting adults were interviewed and tested for HIV using the national diagnostic algorithm followed by laboratory-based confirmation of HIV status and testing for viral load (VL), limiting antigen (LAg) avidity, and presence of antiretrovirals. Incidence was calculated using normalized optical density ≤ 1·5, VL ≥ 1,000 copies/mL, and undetectable antiretrovirals. Survey and programmatic data were used to model district-level HIV incidence and prevalence.

RESULTS

Of 31,028 eligible adults, 98·7% participated in RPHIA and 934 tested HIV positive. HIV prevalence among adults in Rwanda was 3·0% (95% CI:2·7-3·3). National HIV incidence was 0·08% (95% CI:0·02-0·14) and 0·11% (95% CI:0·00-0·26) in the City of Kigali (CoK). Based on district-level modeling, HIV incidence was greatest in the 3 CoK districts (0·11% to 0·15%) and varied across other districts (0·03% to 0·10%).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV prevalence among adults in Rwanda is 3.0%; HIV incidence is low at 0.08%. District-level modeling has identified disproportionately affected urban hotspots: areas to focus resources.

Antiretroviral therapy based HIV prevention targeting young women who sell sex: a mixed method approach to understand the implementation of PrEP in a rural area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is a potential game-changer for HIV. We used PrEP introduction for Young Women Who Sell Sex (YWSS) in a rural South Africa district to understand community norms and PrEP coverage in YWSS. Between 2017 and 2018, we measured awareness and uptake of PrEP in a representative cohort of 2184 Adolescent Girls and Young Women (AGYW) aged 13-22. We conducted group discussions with young people and community members (19); key informant interviews (9), in-depth interviews with 15-24 year-olds (58) and providers (33). Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. PrEP awareness increased from 2% to 9%. Among 965 AGYW sexually-active by 2018, 13.4% (95%CI: 11.4%-15.7%) reported transactional sex and 10.6% (95%CI: 8.85-12.7%) sex for money. Of the 194 YWSS, 21 were aware of PrEP, but none had used it. Youth were enthusiastic about PrEP as tool for HIV prevention; whilst older community members were cautious about a technology they had limited experience with but could benefit select groups. Teachers and healthcare providers were concerned that PrEP would lower personal responsibility for sexual health. In conclusion, the narrow and limited introduction of PrEP to YWSS reduced the accessibility and reach. Introducing PrEP as part of sexual healthcare may improve demand and access for YWSS.

Predicting the Risk of Hiv-1 Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data

Background

Accurate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment can guide optimal HIV prevention. We evaluated the performance of risk prediction models incorporating geospatial measures.

Methods

We developed and validated HIV risk prediction models in a population-based cohort in South Africa. Individual-level covariates included demographic and sexual behavior measures, and geospatial covariates included community HIV prevalence and viral load estimates. We trained models on 2012–2015 data using LASSO Cox models and validated predictions in 2016–2019 data. We compared full models to simpler models restricted to only individual-level covariates or only age and geospatial covariates. We compared the spatial distribution of predicted risk to that of high incidence areas (≥ 3/100 person-years).

Results

Our analysis included 19 556 individuals contributing 44 871 person-years and 1308 seroconversions. Incidence among the highest predicted risk quintile using the full model was 6.6/100 person-years (women) and 2.8/100 person-years (men). Models using only age group and geospatial covariates had similar performance (women: AUROC = 0.65, men: AUROC = 0.71) to the full models (women: AUROC = 0.68, men: AUROC = 0.72). Geospatial models more accurately identified high incidence regions than individual-level models; 20% of the study area with the highest predicted risk accounted for 60% of the high incidence areas when using geospatial models but only 13% using models with only individual-level covariates.

Conclusions

Geospatial models with no individual measures other than age group predicted HIV risk nearly as well as models that included detailed behavioral data. Geospatial models may help guide HIV prevention efforts to individuals and geographic areas at highest risk.

The prevalence and incidence of HIV in the ART era (2006-2016) in North West Tanzania

Background

Sub-Saharan countries bears a disproportionate percentage of HIV infections and HIV related deaths despite the efforts to strengthen HIV prevention and treatments services, including ART. It is important to demonstrate how these services have contributed to reducing the epidemic using available population data.

Methods

We estimated the prevalence and incidence rates from a cohort running over 23 years in Magu District, Mwanza Region-North West Tanzania. Adults 15 years and over who were residents of the Kisesa observational HIV cohort study between 2006 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Survival analysis was used to calculate person-time at risk, incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Cox regression models were used for the risk factor analyses disaggregated by sex and age group.

Results

The HIV prevalence in the sero-surveys decreased from 7.2% in 2006/07 to 6.6% in 2016, with a notable decrease of over 50% for both men and women aged 15-24 years. The incidence rate for HIV was estimated to be 5.5 (95% CI 4.6 - 6.6) per 1000 person-years in women compared to 4.6 (95% CI 3.5 – 5.8) in men, with a decrease over time. Despite the availability of ART services, the uptake is still small.

Conclusions

New infections are still occurring, with high HIV incidence in individuals aged below 45 years. With new guidelines and the 95-95-95 UNAIDS target, prevalence and incidence must be adequately assessed. In addition, there is a need for additional efforts to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS prevention programmes and intervention services, especially in these areas where resources are limited.