Global patterns and drivers of tree diversity integrated across a continuum of spatial grains

Predicting the responses of European grassland communities to climate and land cover change

European grasslands are among the most species-rich ecosystems on small spatial scales. However, human-induced activities like land use and climate change pose significant threats to this diversity. To explore how climate and land cover change will affect biodiversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, we conducted joint species distribution models (SDMs) on the extensive vegetation-plot database sPlotOpen to project distributions of 1178 grassland species across Europe under current conditions and three future scenarios. We further compared model accuracy and computational efficiency between joint SDMs (JSDMs) and stacked SDMs, especially for rare species. Our results show that: (i) grassland communities in the mountain ranges are expected to suffer high rates of species loss, while those in western, northern and eastern Europe will experience substantial turnover; (ii) scaling anomalies were observed in the predicted species richness, reflecting regional differences in the dominant drivers of assembly processes; (iii) JSDMs did not outperform stacked SDMs in predictive power but demonstrated superior efficiency in model fitting and predicting; and (iv) incorporating co-occurrence datasets improved the model performance in predicting the distribution of rare species. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Seed rain composition responds to climate change in a subtropical forest

Recent climate change has been shown to alter aspects of forest plant demography, such as growth and mortality, but less attention has been focused on how climate change alters the reproduction of plant populations through time. We hypothesized that the plant seed production would respond to climate change, and that the response would differ according to plant life form and functional traits. We tested this hypothesis by examining climate change from 2005 to 2020 and by determining the temporal trends of seed rain and seed production from plants with different life forms (e.g., herbs, vines, trees, palms) and of tree species with different statures as well as leaf, seed and wood traits during 2014-2020. We also tested the correlation between meteorological variables and time series of seed rain using cross correlation analysis. We found increasing wetness (lower vapor pressure deficit) through time but with decreasing minimum relative humidity, which is a pattern consistent with trends seen in many other parts of the world. During the study period, seed production of shrubs and relative contribution of woody vines to total seed rain decreased, while relative contribution of palms to total seed rain and tree species with more conservative leaf traits increased their contribution to total seed rain. Overall, these trends were well explained by the trends of meteorological variables and the responses of these life forms to climate change in previous studies. Additionally, the increasingly conservative leaf traits were also consistent with shifts in traits following recovery from disturbance. Our results suggest that a trait-based approach may help to unveil trends that are not readily apparent by examining seed counts alone. The compositional change found in the seed rain may indicate future shifts in forest species composition and should be incorporated into future studies of forest modelling and projections under climate change.

SPARSE 1.0: a template for databases of species inventories, with an open example of Czech birds

Here, we introduce SPARSE (acronym for "SPecies AcRoss ScalEs"), a simple and portable template for databases that can store data on species composition derived from ecological inventories, surveys and checklists, with emphasis on metadata describing sampling effort and methods. SPARSE can accommodate resurveys and time series and data from different spatial scales, as well as complex sampling designs. SPARSE focuses on inventories that report multiple species for a given site, together with sampling methods and effort, which can be used in statistical models of true probability of occurrence of species. SPARSE is spatially explicit and can accommodate nested spatial structures from multiple spatial scales, including sampling designs where multiple sites within a larger area have been surveyed and the larger area can again be nested in an even larger region. Each site in SPARSE is represented either by a point, line (for transects) or polygon, stored in an ESRI shapefile. SPARSE implements a new combination of our own field definitions with Darwin Core biodiversity data standard and its Humboldt core extension. The use of Humboldt core also makes SPARSE suitable for biodiversity data with temporal replication. We provide an example use of the SPARSE framework by digitising data on birds from the Czech Republic, from 348 sites and 524 sampling events, with 15,969 unique species-per-event observations of presence, abundance or population density. To facilitate use without the need for a high-level database expertise, the Czech bird example is implemented as MS Access .accdb file, but can be ported to other database engines. The example of Czech birds complements other bird datasets from the Czech Republic, specifically the four gridded national atlases and the breeding bird survey which cover a similar temporal extent, but different locations and spatial scales.

The contribution of plant life and growth forms to global gradients of vascular plant diversity

Plant life and growth forms (shortened to 'plant forms') represent key functional strategies of plants in relation to their environment and provide important insights into the ecological constraints acting on the distribution of biodiversity. Despite their functional importance, how the spectra of plant forms contribute to global gradients of plant diversity is unresolved. Using a novel dataset comprising > 295 000 species, we quantify the contribution of different plant forms to global gradients of vascular plant diversity. Furthermore, we establish how plant form distributions in different biogeographical regions are associated with contemporary and paleoclimate conditions, environmental heterogeneity and phylogeny. We find a major shift in representation of woody perennials in tropical latitudes to herb-dominated floras in temperate and boreal regions, following a sharp latitudinal gradient in plant form diversity from the tropics to the poles. We also find significant functional differences between regions, mirroring life and growth form responses to environmental conditions, which is mostly explained by contemporary climate (18-87%), and phylogeny (6-62%), with paleoclimate and heterogeneity playing a lesser role (< 23%). This research highlights variation in the importance of different plant forms to diversity gradients world-wide, shedding light on the ecological and evolutionary pressures constraining plant-trait distributions.

Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees

Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species' phylogenetic endemism, its macroecological drivers, and how future pressures may affect the conservation status of the identified hotspots. We found that low-to-mid latitudes host most endemism hotspots, with current climate being the strongest driver, and climatic stability across thousands to millions of years back in time as a major co-determinant. These hotspots are mostly located outside of protected areas and face relatively high land-use change and future climate change pressure. Our study highlights the risk from climate change for tree diversity and the necessity to strengthen conservation and restoration actions in global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees to avoid major future losses of tree diversity.

Notable conservation gaps for biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change adaptation on the Tibetan Plateau, China

Incorporating biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESs) and climate change adaptation into the conservation targets of protected areas (PAs) is being acknowledged. Targeting conservation actions requires a thorough understanding of the relationship between PAs and these important regions. However, few studies have identified conservation gaps while simultaneously considering these three aspects. Here, we assessed the representativeness of the PAs network for biodiversity, ESs and climate refugia (as a proxy for climate change adaptation ability) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our analysis showed that these priority conservation regions were primarily located in the south and southeast of the TP, while they were impacted by intense human pressure. Most ESs and all types of species richness showed a significant positive correlation. Additionally, a positive correlation between multiple climate refugia and different types of species richness was detected. Representativeness analysis revealed notable conservation gaps for these three aspects in existing PAs, highlighting the urgency of adjusting their distribution and improving their representativeness. By integrating these conservation targets, priority regions for future conservation were further delineated. Taken together, our findings contribute to improving the efficiency of PAs and optimizing conservation planning.

Occurrence-based diversity estimation reveals macroecological and conservation knowledge gaps for global woody plants

Incomplete sampling of species' geographic distributions has challenged biogeographers for many years to precisely quantify global-scale biodiversity patterns. After correcting for the spatial inequality of sample completeness, we generated a global species diversity map for woody angiosperms (82,974 species, 13,959,780 occurrence records). The standardized diversity estimated more pronounced latitudinal and longitudinal diversity gradients than the raw data and improved the spatial prediction of diversity based on environmental factors. We identified areas with potentially high species richness and rarity that are poorly explored, unprotected, and threatened by increasing human pressure: They are distributed mostly at low latitudes across central South America, Central Africa, subtropical China, and Indomalayan islands. These priority areas for botanical exploration can help to efficiently fill spatial knowledge gaps for better describing the status of biodiversity and improve the effectiveness of the protected area network for global woody plant conservation.

Flora of Northeast Asia

As a component of the MAP project, the study of the flora in Northeast Asia (comprising Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Northeast China, and Mongolia) convincingly underscores the indispensability of precise and comprehensive diversity data for flora research. Due to variations in the description of flora across different countries in Northeast Asia, it is essential to update our understanding of the region's overall flora using the latest high-quality diversity data. This study employed the most recently published authoritative data from various countries to conduct a statistical analysis of 225 families, 1782 genera, and 10,514 native vascular species and infraspecific taxa in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, species distribution data were incorporated to delineate three gradients in the overall distribution pattern of plant diversity in Northeast Asia. Specifically, Japan (excluding Hokkaido) emerged as the most prolific hotspot for species, followed by the Korean Peninsula and the coastal areas of Northeast China as the second richest hotspots. Conversely, Hokkaido, inland Northeast China, and Mongolia constituted species barren spots. The formation of the diversity gradients is primarily attributed to the effects of latitude and continental gradients, with altitude and topographic factors within the gradients modulating the distribution of species.

Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change

As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

Combining environmental niche models, multi-grain analyses, and species traits identifies pervasive effects of land use on butterfly biodiversity across Italy

Understanding how species respond to human activities is paramount to ecology and conservation science, one outstanding question being how large-scale patterns in land use affect biodiversity. To facilitate answering this question, we propose a novel analytical framework that combines environmental niche models, multi-grain analyses, and species traits. We illustrate the framework capitalizing on the most extensive dataset compiled to date for the butterflies of Italy (106,514 observations for 288 species), assessing how agriculture and urbanization have affected biodiversity of these taxa from landscape to regional scales (3-48 km grains) across the country while accounting for its steep climatic gradients. Multiple lines of evidence suggest pervasive and scale-dependent effects of land use on butterflies in Italy. While land use explained patterns in species richness primarily at grains ≤12 km, idiosyncratic responses in species highlighted "winners" and "losers" across human-dominated regions. Detrimental effects of agriculture and urbanization emerged from landscape (3-km grain) to regional (48-km grain) scales, disproportionally affecting small butterflies and butterflies with a short flight curve. Human activities have therefore reorganized the biogeography of Italian butterflies, filtering out species with poor dispersal capacity and narrow niche breadth not only from local assemblages, but also from regional species pools. These results suggest that global conservation efforts neglecting large-scale patterns in land use risk falling short of their goals, even for taxa typically assumed to persist in small natural areas (e.g., invertebrates). Our study also confirms that consideration of spatial scales will be crucial to implementing effective conservation actions in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. In this context, applications of the proposed analytical framework have broad potential to identify which mechanisms underlie biodiversity change at different spatial scales.

Global models and predictions of plant diversity based on advanced machine learning techniques

Despite the paramount role of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and human welfare, knowledge of its global distribution is still incomplete, hampering basic research and biodiversity conservation. Here, we used machine learning (random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks) and conventional statistical methods (generalized linear models and generalized additive models) to test environment-related hypotheses of broad-scale vascular plant diversity gradients and to model and predict species richness and phylogenetic richness worldwide. To this end, we used 830 regional plant inventories including c. 300 000 species and predictors of past and present environmental conditions. Machine learning showed a superior performance, explaining up to 80.9% of species richness and 83.3% of phylogenetic richness, illustrating the great potential of such techniques for disentangling complex and interacting associations between the environment and plant diversity. Current climate and environmental heterogeneity emerged as the primary drivers, while past environmental conditions left only small but detectable imprints on plant diversity. Finally, we combined predictions from multiple modeling techniques (ensemble predictions) to reveal global patterns and centers of plant diversity at multiple resolutions down to 7774 km² . Our predictive maps provide accurate estimates of global plant diversity available at grain sizes relevant for conservation and macroecology.

Toward a forest biomass reference measurement system for remote sensing applications

Forests contribute to climate change mitigation through carbon storage and uptake, but the extent to which this carbon pool varies in space and time is still poorly known. Several Earth Observation missions have been specifically designed to address this issue, for example, NASA's GEDI, NASA-ISRO's NISAR and ESA's BIOMASS. Yet, all these missions' products require independent and consistent validation. A permanent, global, in situ, site-based forest biomass reference measurement system relying on ground data of the highest possible quality is therefore needed. Here, we have assembled a list of almost 200 high-quality sites through an in-depth review of the literature and expert knowledge. In this study, we explore how representative these sites are in terms of their coverage of environmental conditions, geographical space and biomass-related forest structure, compared to those experienced by forests worldwide. This work also aims at identifying which sites are the most representative, and where to invest to improve the representativeness of the proposed system. We show that the environmental coverage of the system does not seem to improve after at least the 175 most representative sites are included, but geographical and structural coverages continue to improve as more sites are added. We highlight the areas of poor environmental, geographical, or structural coverage, including, but not limited to, Canada, the western half of the USA, Mexico, Patagonia, Angola, Zambia, eastern Russia, and tropical and subtropical highlands (e.g. in Colombia, the Himalayas, Borneo, Papua). For the proposed system to succeed, we stress that (1) data must be collected and processed applying the same standards across all countries and continents; (2) system establishment and management must be inclusive and equitable, with careful consideration of working conditions; and (3) training and site partner involvement in downstream activities should be mandatory.

Why we should be looking for longitudinal patterns in biodiversity

Our understanding of global diversity patterns relies overwhelmingly on ecological and evolutionary correlates of latitude, and largely ignores longitude. However, the two major explanations of biodiversity patterns – energy and stability – are confounded across latitudes, and longitude offers potential solutions. Recent literature shows that the global biogeography of the Cenozoic world is structured by longitudinal barriers. In a few well-studied regions, such as South Africa’s Cape, the Himalayas and the Amazon-Andes continuum, there are strong longitudinal gradients in biodiversity. Often, such gradients occur where high and low past climatic velocities are juxtaposed, and there is clear evidence of higher biodiversity at the climatically-stable end. Understanding longitudinal biodiversity variations more widely can offer new insights towards biodiversity conservation in the face of anthropogenic climatic change.

Global patterns of vascular plant alpha diversity

Global patterns of regional (gamma) plant diversity are relatively well known, but whether these patterns hold for local communities, and the dependence on spatial grain, remain controversial. Using data on 170,272 georeferenced local plant assemblages, we created global maps of alpha diversity (local species richness) for vascular plants at three different spatial grains, for forests and non-forests. We show that alpha diversity is consistently high across grains in some regions (for example, Andean-Amazonian foothills), but regional 'scaling anomalies' (deviations from the positive correlation) exist elsewhere, particularly in Eurasian temperate forests with disproportionally higher fine-grained richness and many African tropical forests with disproportionally higher coarse-grained richness. The influence of different climatic, topographic and biogeographical variables on alpha diversity also varies across grains. Our multi-grain maps return a nuanced understanding of vascular plant biodiversity patterns that complements classic maps of biodiversity hotspots and will improve predictions of global change effects on biodiversity.

Global variation in diversification rate and species richness are unlinked in plants

Species richness varies immensely around the world. Variation in the rate of diversification (speciation minus extinction) is often hypothesized to explain this pattern, while alternative explanations invoke time or ecological carrying capacities as drivers. Focusing on seed plants, the world's most important engineers of terrestrial ecosystems, we investigated the role of diversification rate as a link between the environment and global species richness patterns. Applying structural equation modeling to a comprehensive distribution dataset and phylogenetic tree covering all circa 332,000 seed plant species and 99.9% of the world's terrestrial surface (excluding Antarctica), we test five broad hypotheses postulating that diversification serves as a mechanistic link between species richness and climate, climatic stability, seasonality, environmental heterogeneity, or the distribution of biomes. Our results show that the global patterns of species richness and diversification rate are entirely independent. Diversification rates were not highest in warm and wet climates, running counter to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, one of the dominant explanations for global gradients in species richness. Instead, diversification rates were highest in edaphically diverse, dry areas that have experienced climate change during the Neogene. Meanwhile, we confirmed climate and environmental heterogeneity as the main drivers of species richness, but these effects did not involve diversification rates as a mechanistic link, calling for alternative explanations. We conclude that high species richness is likely driven by the antiquity of wet tropical areas (supporting the "tropical conservatism hypothesis") or the high ecological carrying capacity of warm, wet, and/or environmentally heterogeneous environments.

High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressure

Safeguarding Earth's tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species' range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species' range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

Integrating remote sensing with ecology and evolution to advance biodiversity conservation

Remote sensing has transformed the monitoring of life on Earth by revealing spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity through structural, compositional and functional measurements of ecosystems. Yet, many aspects of Earth's biodiversity are not directly quantified by reflected or emitted photons. Inclusive integration of remote sensing with field-based ecology and evolution is needed to fully understand and preserve Earth's biodiversity. In this Perspective, we argue that multiple data types are necessary for almost all draft targets set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. We examine five key topics in biodiversity science that can be advanced by integrating remote sensing with in situ data collection from field sampling, experiments and laboratory studies to benefit conservation. Lowering the barriers for bringing these approaches together will require global-scale collaboration.

Warming impacts on photosynthetic processes in dominant plant species in a subtropical forest

Climate warming could shift some subtropical regions to a tropical climate in the next 30 years. Yet, climate warming impacts on subtropical species and ecosystems remain unclear. We conducted a passive warming experiment in a subtropical forest in Florida, USA, to determine warming impacts on four species differing in their climatic distribution, growth form, and functional type: Serenoa repens (palm), Andropogon glomeratus (C₄ grass), Pinus palustris (needled evergreen tree), and Quercus laevis (broadleaved deciduous tree). We hypothesized that warming would have neutral-positive effects on photosynthetic processes in monocot species with warmer climatic distributions or adaptations to warmer temperatures, but negative effects on photosynthesis in tree species. We also hypothesized that periods of low soil moisture would alter photosynthetic responses to warming. In both monocot species, warming had no significant effect on net photosynthesis (A) or stomatal conductance (g_s ) measured at prevailing temperatures, or photosynthetic capacity measured at a common temperature. In P. palustris, warming reduced A (-15%) and g_s (-28%), and caused small reductions in Rubisco carboxylation and RuBP regeneration. Warming had little effect on photosynthetic processes in Q. laevis. Interestingly, A. glomeratus showed little sensitivity to reduced soil moisture, and all C₃ species reduced A and g_s as soil moisture declined and did so consistently across temperature treatments. In subtropical forests of the southeastern US, we conclude that climate warming may have neutral or slightly positive effects on the performance of grasses and broadleaved species but negative effects on P. palustris seedlings, foreshadowing possible changes in community and ecosystem properties.

Host phylogenetic diversity predicts the global extent and composition of tree pests

Tree pests cause billions of dollars of damage annually; yet, we know little about what limits their regional composition and distribution. Here, we model the co-occurrence of 4510 pests and 981 tree host genera spread across 233 countries. We show the composition of tree pests is primarily driven by the phylogenetic composition of host trees, whereas effects of climate and geography tend to be more minor. Pests that utilise many hosts tend to be more widespread; however, most pests do not fill the geographic range of their hosts-indicating that many pests could expand their extents if able to overcome barriers limiting their current distribution. Our results suggest that the establishment of pests in new regions may be largely dictated by the presence of suitable host trees, but more work is needed to fully understand the influences climate has on the distributions of individual pest species.

A unified model of species abundance, genetic diversity, and functional diversity reveals the mechanisms structuring ecological communities

Biodiversity accumulates hierarchically by means of ecological and evolutionary processes and feedbacks. Within ecological communities drift, dispersal, speciation, and selection operate simultaneously to shape patterns of biodiversity. Reconciling the relative importance of these is hindered by current models and inference methods, which tend to focus on a subset of processes and their resulting predictions. Here we introduce massive ecoevolutionary synthesis simulations (MESS), a unified mechanistic model of community assembly, rooted in classic island biogeography theory, which makes temporally explicit joint predictions across three biodiversity data axes: (i) species richness and abundances, (ii) population genetic diversities, and (iii) trait variation in a phylogenetic context. Using simulations we demonstrate that each data axis captures information at different timescales, and that integrating these axes enables discriminating among previously unidentifiable community assembly models. MESS is unique in generating predictions of community‐scale genetic diversity, and in characterizing joint patterns of genetic diversity, abundance, and trait values. MESS unlocks the full potential for investigation of biodiversity processes using multidimensional community data including a genetic component, such as might be produced by contemporary eDNA or metabarcoding studies. We combine MESS with supervised machine learning to fit the parameters of the model to real data and infer processes underlying how biodiversity accumulates, using communities of tropical trees, arthropods, and gastropods as case studies that span a range of data availability scenarios, and spatial and taxonomic scales.

Scale-dependent effects of niche specialisation: The disconnect between individual and species ranges

One of the most general expectations of species range dynamics is that widespread species tend to have broader niches. However, it remains unclear how this relationship is expressed at different levels of biological organisation, which involve potentially distinctive processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we show that range sizes of terrestrial non-volant mammals at the individual and species level show contrasting relationships with two ecological niche dimensions: diet and habitat breadth. While average individual home range size appears to be mainly shaped by the interplay of diet niche breadth and body mass, species geographical range size is primarily related to habitat niche breadth but not to diet niche breadth. Our findings suggest that individual home range size is shaped by the trade-off between energetic requirements, movement capacity and trophic specialisation, whereas species geographical range size is related to the ability to persist under various environmental conditions.

Implications of scale dependence for cross-study syntheses of biodiversity differences

Biodiversity studies are sensitive to well-recognised temporal and spatial scale dependencies. Cross-study syntheses may inflate these influences by collating studies that vary widely in the numbers and sizes of sampling plots. Here we evaluate sources of inaccuracy and imprecision in study-level and cross-study estimates of biodiversity differences, caused by within-study grain and sample sizes, biodiversity measure, and choice of effect-size metric. Samples from simulated communities of old-growth and secondary forests demonstrated influences of all these parameters on the accuracy and precision of cross-study effect sizes. In cross-study synthesis by formal meta-analysis, the metric of log response ratio applied to measures of species richness yielded better accuracy than the commonly used Hedges' g metric on species density, which dangerously combined higher precision with persistent bias. Full-data analyses of the raw plot-scale data using multilevel models were also susceptible to scale-dependent bias. We demonstrate the challenge of detecting scale dependence in cross-study synthesis, due to ubiquitous covariation between replication, variance and plot size. We propose solutions for diagnosing and minimising bias. We urge that empirical studies publish raw data to allow evaluation of covariation in cross-study syntheses, and we recommend against using Hedges' g in biodiversity meta-analyses.

Multifaceted biodiversity measurements reveal incongruent conservation priorities for rivers in the upper reach and lakes in the middle-lower reach of the largest river-floodplain ecosystem in China

Biological conservation necessitates robust understanding of multifaceted biodiversity from local to regional scales. Mismatches among multifaceted diversity and conservation trade-offs are the most important challenge for conservation planning. The Yangtze River floodplain is among the most speciose whereas threatened and poorly protected ecosystems in China. Here we evaluated multifaceted (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional) alpha and beta fish diversity by simultaneously addressing two typical habitats (FRs, floodplain rivers and FLs, floodplain lakes) in this basin, to reliably aid conservation planning across local and regional scales. Our results demonstrated spatially incongruent multifaceted fish diversity between FRs and FLs. Characterizing by flocks of phylogenetic close species, we detected significantly higher species richness while lower phylogenetic and functional alpha diversity in FRs. In contrast, fish assemblages in FLs exhibited significantly higher functional alpha diversity characterized by functional unique species. Consequently, conservation planning should fasten on clusters of phylogenetic close endemic species to sustain high intrinsic species richness in FRs, and sustain high functional diversity as well as protecting fish species with unique functions in FLs. Meanwhile, for all the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets, our results demonstrated significantly higher turnover components in FRs, and the dominant contribution of the nestedness components to overall beta diversity in FLs. As a result, conservation planning in FLs may just focus on several richest lakes, while multiple spatially disjunct river networks should be protected in FRs. Contradicting the anthropocentric "new conservation", our study advocated protecting intrinsic uniqueness and peculiarity of multifaceted biodiversity as well as the ecological integrity.

Drivers of beta diversity in modern and ancient reef-associated soft-bottom environments

Beta diversity, the compositional variation among communities, is often associated with environmental gradients. Other drivers of beta diversity include stochastic processes, priority effects, predation, or competitive exclusion. Temporal turnover may also explain differences in faunal composition between fossil assemblages. To assess the drivers of beta diversity in reef-associated soft-bottom environments, we investigate community patterns in a Middle to Late Triassic reef basin assemblage from the Cassian Formation in the Dolomites, Northern Italy, and compare results with a Recent reef basin assemblage from the Northern Bay of Safaga, Red Sea, Egypt. We evaluate beta diversity with regard to age, water depth, and spatial distance, and compare the results with a null model to evaluate the stochasticity of these differences. Using pairwise proportional dissimilarity, we find very high beta diversity for the Cassian Formation (0.91 ± 0.02) and slightly lower beta diversity for the Bay of Safaga (0.89 ± 0.04). Null models show that stochasticity only plays a minor role in determining faunal differences. Spatial distance is also irrelevant. Contrary to expectations, there is no tendency of beta diversity to decrease with water depth. Although water depth has frequently been found to be a key factor in determining beta diversity, we find that it is not the major driver in these reef-associated soft-bottom environments. We postulate that priority effects and the biotic structuring of the sediment may be key determinants of beta diversity.

In memoriam Ching-I Peng (1950-2018)-an outstanding scientist and mentor with a remarkable legacy

Ching-I Peng, the most prolific and internationally recognized Taiwanese plant taxonomist of his generation, passed away on May 1, 2018. Dr. Peng was an eminent worker on the taxonomy of East Asian plants and the genus Ludwigia, and the foremost expert on Asian Begonia. He served as associate editor, co-editor in chief, and editor-in-chief of Botanical Studies and its predecessor Botanical Bulletin of Academia Sinica during the period 1992-2016. He gathered over 25,000 plant specimens, name 121 plant taxa, and has left a remarkable legacy of literature, collaborations and collections. This article summarizes Dr. Peng's academic career and commemorates his enduring contribution.

Climate and plant community diversity in space and time

Climate strongly shapes plant diversity over large spatial scales, with relatively warm and wet (benign, productive) regions supporting greater numbers of species. Unresolved aspects of this relationship include what causes it, whether it permeates to community diversity at smaller spatial scales, whether it is accompanied by patterns in functional and phylogenetic diversity as some hypotheses predict, and whether it is paralleled by climate-driven changes in diversity over time. Here, studies of Californian plants are reviewed and new analyses are conducted to synthesize climate-diversity relationships in space and time. Across spatial scales and organizational levels, plant diversity is maximized in more productive (wetter) climates, and these consistent spatial relationships are mirrored in losses of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity over time during a recent climatic drying trend. These results support the tolerance and climatic niche conservatism hypotheses for climate-diversity relationships, and suggest there is some predictability to future changes in diversity in water-limited climates.

Climatic and vegetational drivers of insect beta diversity at the continental scale

AIM

We construct a framework for mapping pattern and drivers of insect diversity at the continental scale and use it to test whether and which environmental gradients drive insect beta diversity.

LOCATION

Global; North and Central America; Western Europe.

TIME PERIOD

21st century.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Insects.

METHODS

An informatics system was developed to integrate terrestrial data on insects with environmental parameters. We mined repositories of data for distribution, climatic data were retrieved (WorldClim), and vegetation parameters inferred from remote sensing analysis (MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields). Beta diversity between sites was calculated and then modeled with two methods, Mantel test with multiple regression and generalized dissimilarity modeling.

RESULTS

Geographic distance was the main driver of insect beta diversity. Independent of geographic distance, bioclimate variables explained more variance in dissimilarity than vegetation variables, although the particular variables found to be significant were more consistent in the latter, particularly, tree cover. Tree cover gradients drove compositional dissimilarity at denser coverages, in both continental case studies. For climate, gradients in temperature parameters were significant in driving beta diversity more so than gradients in precipitation parameters.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Although environmental gradients drive insect beta diversity independently of geography, the relative contribution of different climatic and vegetational parameters is not expected to be consistent in different study systems. With further incorporation of additional temporal information and variables, this approach will enable the development of a predictive framework for conserving insect biodiversity at the global scale.