Thresholds for ecological responses to global change do not emerge from empirical data

Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems

The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world

Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations for the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes and mammals, (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most 1 year in advance and (ii) the median 1-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a prediction R 2 of only 20%. Predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, incorporating explanatory variables, accounting for time trends and considering multivariate time series can enhance predictability. To effectively address the challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the information within the available data that can be used for prediction and explore efficient ways to leverage this knowledge for environmental stewardship.

Positive feedbacks and alternative stable states in forest leaf types

The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4-43% higher growth rates, 14-17% higher survival rates and 4-7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration-Scientific Transculturalism-recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

A taxonomy of multiple stable states in complex ecological communities

Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A fragility scenario of particular relevance concerns so-called regime shifts: abrupt transitions from healthy to degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as transitions between alternative stable states, a process that is well-understood in few-species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains a debated question. Here, we identify that four different multistability regimes generically emerge in models of species-rich communities and other archetypical complex biological systems assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each regime consistently emerges under a specific interaction scheme and leaves a distinct set of fingerprints in terms of the number of observed states, their species richness and their response to perturbations. Our results help clarify the conditions and types of multistability that can be expected to occur in complex ecological communities.

Application of early warning signs to physiological contexts: a comparison of multivariate indices in patients on long-term hemodialysis

Early warnings signs (EWSs) can anticipate abrupt changes in system state, known as "critical transitions," by detecting dynamic variations, including increases in variance, autocorrelation (AC), and cross-correlation. Numerous EWSs have been proposed; yet no consensus on which perform best exists. Here, we compared 15 multivariate EWSs in time series of 763 hemodialyzed patients, previously shown to present relevant critical transition dynamics. We calculated five EWSs based on AC, six on variance, one on cross-correlation, and three on AC and variance. We assessed their pairwise correlations, trends before death, and mortality predictive power, alone and in combination. Variance-based EWSs showed stronger correlations (r = 0.663 ± 0.222 vs. 0.170 ± 0.205 for AC-based indices) and a steeper increase before death. Two variance-based EWSs yielded HR95 > 9 (HR95 standing for a scale-invariant metric of hazard ratio), but combining them did not improve the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) much compared to using them alone (AUC = 0.798 vs. 0.796 and 0.791). Nevertheless, the AUC reached 0.825 when combining 13 indices. While some indicators did not perform overly well alone, their addition to the best performing EWSs increased the predictive power, suggesting that indices combination captures a broader range of dynamic changes occurring within the system. It is unclear whether this added benefit reflects measurement error of a unified phenomenon or heterogeneity in the nature of signals preceding critical transitions. Finally, the modest predictive performance and weak correlations among some indices call into question their validity, at least in this context.

Critical thresholds for nonlinear responses of ecosystem water use efficiency to drought

Climate change is expected to lead to greater variability in precipitation and drought in different regions. However, the responses of ecosystem carbon and water cycles (i.e., water use efficiency, WUE) to different levels of drought stress are not fully understood. Here, we examined the relationship between WUE and precipitation anomalies and identified the critical drought threshold (DrCW) above which WUE showed substantial decrease. The results revealed that 85.56 % of the study area had nonlinear WUE responses to drought stress; that is, the WUE decreased sustainably and steeply when the precipitation deficit exceeded the DrCW. DrCW indicates inflection points for changing ecosystem responses from relatively resistant to vulnerable to drought stress, thus providing an instructive early warning for intensifying suppressive impacts on vegetation growth. Additionally, DrCW varies across aridity gradients and among vegetation types. Based on the DrCW at the pixel level, the future eco-drought is projected to increase in >67 % of the study area under both the SSP2&RCP4.5 and SSP5&RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Our study elucidates the response of the ecosystem function to drought and supports the development of accurate ecosystem adaptation policies for future drought stress.

Spatio-temporal coupling analysis and tipping points detection of China's coastal integrated land-human activity-ocean system

The coastal zone is typically highly developed and its ocean environment is vastly exposed to the onshore activities. Land-based pollution, as the "metabolite" of terrestrial human activities, significantly impacts the ocean environment. Although numerous studies have investigated these effects, few have quantified the interactions among land-human activity-ocean across both spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we have developed a land-human activity-ocean systemic framework integrating the coupling coordination degree model and tipping point to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamic interaction mechanism among the land-based pollution, human activities, and ocean environment in China from 2001 to 2020. Our findings revealed that the overall coupling coordination degree of the China's coastal zone increased by 36.9 % over last two decades. Furthermore, the effect of human activities on China's coastal environment remained within acceptable thresholds, as no universal tipping points for coastal pollution or ocean environment has been found over the 20-year period. Notably, the lag time for algal blooms, the key indicator of ocean environment health, was found to be 0-3 years in response to the land economic development and 0-4 years in response to land-based pollution. Based on the differences in spatiotemporal interactions among land-human activity-ocean system, we employed cluster analysis to categorize China's coastal provinces into four types and to develop appropriate management measures. Quantifying the interaction mechanism within the land-human activity-ocean system could aid decision-makers in creating sustainable coastal development strategies. This enables efficient use of land and ocean resources, supports coastal conservation and restoration efforts, and fosters effective management recommendations to enhance coastal sustainability and resilience.

Improving ecosystem health in highly altered river basins: a generalized framework and its application to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

Continued large-scale public investment in declining ecosystems depends on demonstrations of "success". While the public conception of "success" often focuses on restoration to a pre-disturbance condition, the scientific community is more likely to measure success in terms of improved ecosystem health. Using a combination of literature review, workshops and expert solicitation we propose a generalized framework to improve ecosystem health in highly altered river basins by reducing ecosystem stressors, enhancing ecosystem processes and increasing ecosystem resilience. We illustrate the use of this framework in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central United States (U.S.), by (i) identifying key stressors related to human activities, and (ii) creating a conceptual ecosystem model relating those stressors to effects on ecosystem structure and processes. As a result of our analysis, we identify a set of landscape-level indicators of ecosystem health, emphasizing leading indicators of stressor removal (e.g., reduced anthropogenic nutrient inputs), increased ecosystem function (e.g., increased water storage in the landscape) and increased resilience (e.g., changes in the percentage of perennial vegetative cover). We suggest that by including these indicators, along with lagging indicators such as direct measurements of water quality, stakeholders will be better able to assess the effectiveness of management actions. For example, if both leading and lagging indicators show improvement over time, then management actions are on track to attain desired ecosystem condition. If, however, leading indicators are not improving or even declining, then fundamental challenges to ecosystem health remain to be addressed and failure to address these will ultimately lead to declines in lagging indicators such as water quality. Although our model and indicators are specific to the MARB, we believe that the generalized framework and the process of model and indicator development will be valuable in an array of altered river basins.

Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming

Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can.

More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data

Research aimed at identifying indicators of persistent abrupt shifts in ecological communities, a.k.a regime shifts, has led to the development of a suite of early warning signals (EWSs). As these often perform inaccurately when applied to real-world observational data, it remains unclear whether critical transitions are the dominant mechanism of regime shifts and, if so, which EWS methods can predict them. Here, using multi-trophic planktonic data on multiple lakes from around the world, we classify both lake dynamics and the reliability of classic and second generation EWSs methods to predict whole-ecosystem change. We find few instances of critical transitions, with different trophic levels often expressing different forms of abrupt change. The ability to predict this change is highly processing dependant, with most indicators not performing better than chance, multivariate EWSs being weakly superior to univariate, and a recent machine learning model performing poorly. Our results suggest that predictive ecology should start to move away from the concept of critical transitions, developing methods suitable for predicting resilience loss not limited to the strict bounds of bifurcation theory.

Treated and highly diluted, but wastewater still impacts diversity and energy fluxes of freshwater food webs

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have greatly improved water quality globally. However, treated effluents still contain a complex cocktail of pollutants whose environmental effects might go unnoticed, masked by additional stressors in the receiving waters or by spatiotemporal variability. We conducted a BACI (Before-After/Control-Impact) ecosystem manipulation experiment, where we diverted part of the effluent of a large tertiary WWTP into a small, unpolluted stream to assess the effects of a well-treated and highly diluted effluent on riverine diversity and food web dynamics. We sampled basal food resources, benthic invertebrates and fish to search for changes on the structure and energy transfer of the food web with the effluent. Although effluent toxicity was low, it reduced diversity, increased primary production and herbivory, and reduced energy fluxes associated to terrestrial inputs. Altogether, the effluent decreased total energy fluxes in stream food webs, showing that treated wastewater can lead to important ecosystem-level changes, affecting the structure and functioning of stream communities even at high dilution rates. The present study shows that current procedures to treat wastewater can still affect freshwater ecosystems and highlights the need for further efforts to treat polluted waters to conserve aquatic food webs.

Widespread synchronous decline of Mediterranean-type forest driven by accelerated aridity

Large-scale, abrupt ecosystem change in direct response to climate extremes is a critical but poorly documented phenomenon1. Yet, recent increases in climate-induced tree mortality raise concern that some forest ecosystems are on the brink of collapse across wide environmental gradients2,3. Here we assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world's five Mediterranean forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2021 and detected a large-scale, abrupt forest browning and productivity decline in Chile (>90% of the forest in <100 days), responding to a sustained, acute drought. The extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are akin to those projected to arise in the second half of the century4. Long-term recovery of this forest is uncertain given an ongoing decline in regional water balance. This dramatic plummet of forest productivity may be a spyglass to the future for other Mediterranean ecosystems.

Tipping point arises earlier under a multiple-stressor scenario

Anthropogenic impacts and global changes have profound implications for natural ecosystems and may lead to their modification, degradation or collapse. Increases in the intensity of single stressors may create abrupt shifts in biotic responses (i.e. thresholds). The effects of multiple interacting stressors may create non-additive responses, known as synergistic or antagonistic interactions. Here we combine both concepts-ecological thresholds and interactions between multiple stressors-to understand the effects of multiple interacting stressors along environmental gradients, and how this can affect the occurrence of thresholds. Using an experimental approach to investigate the effect of nutrient enrichment and saltwater intrusion on mortality in the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, we show that multiple stressors can create thresholds at lower levels of an environmental gradient. Our results reveal a major shortcoming in how we currently investigate these two ecological concepts, as considering them separately may be causing underestimation of thresholds and stressor-interaction impacts.

Marine heatwaves are not a dominant driver of change in demersal fishes

Marine heatwaves have been linked to negative ecological effects in recent decades1,2. If marine heatwaves regularly induce community reorganization and biomass collapses in fishes, the consequences could be catastrophic for ecosystems, fisheries and human communities3,4. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves have negative impacts on fish biomass or community composition, or even whether their effects can be distinguished from natural and sampling variability, remains unclear. We investigated the effects of 248 sea-bottom heatwaves from 1993 to 2019 on marine fishes by analysing 82,322 hauls (samples) from long-term scientific surveys of continental shelf ecosystems in North America and Europe spanning the subtropics to the Arctic. Here we show that the effects of marine heatwaves on fish biomass were often minimal and could not be distinguished from natural and sampling variability. Furthermore, marine heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization (gain of warm-affiliated species) or deborealization (loss of cold-affiliated species) in these ecosystems. Although steep declines in biomass occasionally occurred after marine heatwaves, these were the exception, not the rule. Against the highly variable backdrop of ocean ecosystems, marine heatwaves have not driven biomass change or community turnover in fish communities that support many of the world's largest and most productive fisheries.

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

Microbial Composition of Freshwater Marsh Sediment Responds more Strongly to Microcosm Seawater Addition than Simulated Nitrate or Phosphate Eutrophication

As sea level rise impacts coastal wetlands, saltmarsh will overtake coastal freshwater marsh in many areas, but changes in the sediment microbiome in response to saltwater intrusion are difficult to predict. Coastal freshwater marsh sediment was exposed to ambient, brackish, and saline conditions as well as to elevated nitrate and phosphate to model the combined stresses of saltwater intrusion and coastal eutrophication. Initially, sediment prokaryotic composition was similar to prior studies of freshwater marsh but diverged over time, reflecting the magnitude of increase in saltwater. There was no observed effect of nutrient amendment, potentially ranking seawater intrusion as a higher-importance compositional driver. Although the previously described loss of methanogenic populations and promotion of sulfate reducers in response to saltwater exposure was observed, taxonomic distribution was not similar to typical meso-polyhaline wetlands. Without colonization by marine taxa, such a community may be short-lived naturally, ultimately equilibrating with more common saltmarsh species. However, the recapitulation of salinity concentration by freshwater sediment microbial composition demonstrates the overwhelming nature of saltwater intrusion relative to other drivers like eutrophication.

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions

This issue addresses the multifaceted problems of understanding biodiversity change to meet emerging international development and conservation goals, national economic accounting and diverse community needs. Recent international agreements highlight the need to establish monitoring and assessment programmes at national and regional levels. We identify an opportunity for the research community to develop the methods for robust detection and attribution of biodiversity change that will contribute to national assessments and guide conservation action. The 16 contributions of this issue address six major aspects of biodiversity assessment: connecting policy to science, establishing observation, improving statistical estimation, detecting change, attributing causes and projecting the future. These studies are led by experts in Indigenous studies, economics, ecology, conservation, statistics, and computer science, with representations from Asia, Africa, South America, North America and Europe. The results place biodiversity science in the context of policy needs and provide an updated roadmap for how to observe biodiversity change in a way that supports conservation action via robust detection and attribution science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Toward a cohesive understanding of ecological complexity

Ecological systems are quintessentially complex systems. Understanding and being able to predict phenomena typical of complex systems is, therefore, critical to progress in ecology and conservation amidst escalating global environmental change. However, myriad definitions of complexity and excessive reliance on conventional scientific approaches hamper conceptual advances and synthesis. Ecological complexity may be better understood by following the solid theoretical basis of complex system science (CSS). We review features of ecological systems described within CSS and conduct bibliometric and text mining analyses to characterize articles that refer to ecological complexity. Our analyses demonstrate that the study of complexity in ecology is a highly heterogeneous, global endeavor that is only weakly related to CSS. Current research trends are typically organized around basic theory, scaling, and macroecology. We leverage our review and the generalities identified in our analyses to suggest a more coherent and cohesive way forward in the study of complexity in ecology.

Integrating the flow regime and water quality effects into a niche-based metacommunity dynamics model for river ecosystems

Aquatic community dynamics are closely dominated by flow regime and water quality conditions, which are increasingly threatened by dam regulation, water diversion, and nutrition pollution. However, further understanding of the ecological impacts of flow regime and water quality conditions on aquatic multi-population dynamics has rarely been integrated into existing ecological models. To address this issue, a new niche-based metacommunity dynamics model (MDM) is proposed. The MDM aims to simulate the coevolution processes of multiple populations under changing abiotic environments, pioneeringly applied to the mid-lower Han River, China. The quantile regression method was used for the first time to derive ecological niches and competition coefficients of the MDM, which are demonstrated to be reasonable by comparing them with the empirical evidence. Simulation results show that the Nash efficiency coefficients for fish, zooplankton, zoobenthos, and macrophytes are more than 0.64, while the Pearson correlation coefficients for them are no less than 0.71. Overall, the MDM performs effectively in simulating metacommunity dynamics. For all river stations, the average contributions of biological interaction, flow regime effects, and water quality effects to multi-population dynamics are 64%, 21%, and 15%, respectively, suggesting that the population dynamics are dominated by biological interaction. For upstream stations, the fish population is 8%-22% more responsive to flow regime alteration than other populations, while other populations are 9%-26% more responsive to changes in water quality conditions than fish. For downstream stations, flow regime effects on each population account for less than 1% due to more stable hydrological conditions. The innovative contribution of this study lies in proposing a multi-population model to quantify the effects of flow regime and water quality on aquatic community dynamics by incorporating multiple indicators of water quantity, water quality, and biomass. This work has potential for the ecological restoration of rivers at the ecosystem level. This study also highlights the importance of considering threshold and tipping point issues when analyzing the "water quantity-water quality-aquatic ecology" nexus in future works.

Scientific novelty beyond the experiment

Practical experiments drive important scientific discoveries in biology, but theory-based research studies also contribute novel-sometimes paradigm-changing-findings. Here, we appraise the roles of theory-based approaches focusing on the experiment-dominated wet-biology research areas of microbial growth and survival, cell physiology, host-pathogen interactions, and competitive or symbiotic interactions. Additional examples relate to analyses of genome-sequence data, climate change and planetary health, habitability, and astrobiology. We assess the importance of thought at each step of the research process; the roles of natural philosophy, and inconsistencies in logic and language, as drivers of scientific progress; the value of thought experiments; the use and limitations of artificial intelligence technologies, including their potential for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research; and other instances when theory is the most-direct and most-scientifically robust route to scientific novelty including the development of techniques for practical experimentation or fieldwork. We highlight the intrinsic need for human engagement in scientific innovation, an issue pertinent to the ongoing controversy over papers authored using/authored by artificial intelligence (such as the large language model/chatbot ChatGPT). Other issues discussed are the way in which aspects of language can bias thinking towards the spatial rather than the temporal (and how this biased thinking can lead to skewed scientific terminology); receptivity to research that is non-mainstream; and the importance of theory-based science in education and epistemology. Whereas we briefly highlight classic works (those by Oakes Ames, Francis H.C. Crick and James D. Watson, Charles R. Darwin, Albert Einstein, James E. Lovelock, Lynn Margulis, Gilbert Ryle, Erwin R.J.A. Schrödinger, Alan M. Turing, and others), the focus is on microbiology studies that are more-recent, discussing these in the context of the scientific process and the types of scientific novelty that they represent. These include several studies carried out during the 2020 to 2022 lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic when access to research laboratories was disallowed (or limited). We interviewed the authors of some of the featured microbiology-related papers and-although we ourselves are involved in laboratory experiments and practical fieldwork-also drew from our own research experiences showing that such studies can not only produce new scientific findings but can also transcend barriers between disciplines, act counter to scientific reductionism, integrate biological data across different timescales and levels of complexity, and circumvent constraints imposed by practical techniques. In relation to urgent research needs, we believe that climate change and other global challenges may require approaches beyond the experiment.

Physiological tipping points in the relationship between foraging success and lifetime fitness of a long-lived mammal

Although anthropogenic change is often gradual, the impacts on animal populations may be precipitous if physiological processes create tipping points between energy gain, reproduction or survival. We use 25 years of behavioural, diet and demographic data from elephant seals to characterise their relationships with lifetime fitness. Survival and reproduction increased with mass gain during long foraging trips preceding the pupping seasons, and there was a threshold where individuals that gained an additional 4.8% of their body mass (26 kg, from 206 to 232 kg) increased lifetime reproductive success three-fold (from 1.8 to 4.9 pups). This was due to a two-fold increase in pupping probability (30% to 76%) and a 7% increase in reproductive lifespan (6.0 to 6.4 years). The sharp threshold between mass gain and reproduction may explain reproductive failure observed in many species and demonstrates how small, gradual reductions in prey from anthropogenic disturbance could have profound implications for animal populations.

Functional thresholds alter the relationship of plant resistance and recovery to drought

The ecological consequences of future droughts are difficult to predict due to a limited understanding of the nonlinear responses of plants to increasing drought intensity, which can change abruptly when critical thresholds of drought intensity are crossed. Drought responses are composed of resistance and postdrought recovery. Although it is well established that higher drought intensity increases the impact and, thus, reduces plant resistance, less is known about how drought intensity affects recovery and how resistance and recovery are related. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that resistance, recovery, and their relationship change abruptly upon crossing critical thresholds of drought intensity. We exposed mesocosms of two monospecific stands of the common grassland species Dactylis glomerata and Plantago lanceolata to a large gradient of drought intensity and quantified the resistance and recovery of multiple measures of plant productivity, including gross-primary productivity, vegetative height, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and aboveground biomass production. Drought intensity had nonlinear and contrasting effects on plant productivity during drought and recovery, which differed between the two species. Increasing drought intensity decreased the resistance of plant productivity and caused rapid compensatory growth during postdrought recovery, the degree of which was highly dependent on drought intensity. Across multiple response parameters two thresholds of drought intensity emerged, upon which we observed abrupt changes in plant resistance and recovery, as well as their relationship. We conclude that across gradients of drought intensity resistance and recovery are tightly coupled and that both the magnitude and the direction of drought effects on resistance and recovery can change abruptly upon specific thresholds of stress intensity. These findings highlight the urgent need to account for nonlinear responses of resistance and recovery to drought intensity as critical drivers of productivity in a changing climate.

Bimodality and alternative equilibria do not help explain long-term patterns in shallow lake chlorophyll-a

Since its inception, the theory of alternative equilibria in shallow lakes has evolved and been applied to an ever wider range of ecological and socioecological systems. The theory posits the existence of two alternative stable states or equilibria, which in shallow lakes are characterised by either clear water with abundant plants or turbid water where phytoplankton dominate. Here, we used data simulations and real-world data sets from Denmark and north-eastern USA (902 lakes in total) to examine the relationship between shallow lake phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a) and nutrient concentrations across a range of timescales. The data simulations demonstrated that three diagnostic tests could reliably identify the presence or absence of alternative equilibria. The real-world data accorded with data simulations where alternative equilibria were absent. Crucially, it was only as the temporal scale of observation increased (>3 years) that a predictable linear relationship between nutrient concentration and chlorophyll-a was evident. Thus, when a longer term perspective is taken, the notion of alternative equilibria is not required to explain the response of chlorophyll-a to nutrient enrichment which questions the utility of the theory for explaining shallow lake response to, and recovery from, eutrophication.

Identifying thresholds of nitrogen enrichment for substantial shifts in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal community metrics in a temperate grassland of northern China

Nitrogen (N) enrichment poses threats to biodiversity and ecosystem stability, while arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi play important roles in ecosystem stability and functioning. However, the ecological impacts, especially thresholds of N enrichment potentially causing AM fungal community shifts have not been adequately characterized. Based on a long-term field experiment with nine N addition levels ranging from 0 to 50 g N m^-2  yr^-1 in a temperate grassland, we characterized the community response patterns of AM fungi to N enrichment. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal biomass continuously decreased with increasing N addition levels. However, AM fungal diversity did not significantly change below 20 g N m^-2  yr^-1 , but dramatically decreased at higher N levels, which drove the AM fungal community to a potentially unstable state. Structural equation modeling showed that the decline in AM fungal biomass could be well explained by soil acidification, whereas key driving factors for AM fungal diversity shifted from soil nitrogen : phosphorus (N : P) ratio to soil pH with increasing N levels. Different aspects of AM fungal communities (biomass, diversity and community composition) respond differently to increasing N addition levels. Thresholds for substantial community shifts in response to N enrichment in this grassland ecosystem are identified.

A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections

Climate change has dramatic impacts on ecological systems, affecting a range of ecological factors including phenology, species abundance, diversity, and distribution. The breadth of climate change impacts on ecological systems leads to the occurrence of fingerprints of climate change. However, climate fingerprints are usually identified across broad geographical scales and are potentially influenced by publication biases. In this study, we used natural history collections spanning over 250 years, to quantify a range of ecological responses to climate change, including phenology, abundance, diversity, and distributions, across a range of taxa, including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fungi, within a single region, Central Norway. We tested the hypotheses that ecological responses to climate change are apparent and coherent at a regional scale, that longer time series show stronger trends over time and in relation to temperature, and that ecological responses change in trajectory at the same time as shifts in temperature. We identified a clear regional coherence in climate signal, with decreasing abundances of limnic zooplankton (on average by 7691 individuals m-3 °C-1) and boreal forest breeding birds (on average by 1.94 territories km-2 °C-1), and earlier plant flowering phenology (on average 2 days °C-1) for every degree of temperature increase. In contrast, regional-scale species distributions and species diversity were largely stable. Surprisingly, the effect size of ecological response did not increase with study duration, and shifts in responses did not occur at the same time as shifts in temperature. This may be as the long-term studies include both periods of warming and temperature stability, and that ecological responses lag behind warming. Our findings demonstrate a regional climate fingerprint across a long timescale. We contend that natural history collections provide a unique window on a broad spectrum of ecological responses at timescales beyond most ecological monitoring programs. Natural history collections are thus an essential source for long-term ecological research.

Estimating comparable distances to tipping points across mutualistic systems by scaled recovery rates

Mutualistic systems can experience abrupt and irreversible regime shifts caused by local or global stressors. Despite decades of efforts to understand ecosystem dynamics and determine whether a tipping point could occur, there are no current approaches to estimate distances (in state/parameter space) to tipping points and compare the distances across various mutualistic systems. Here we develop a general dimension-reduction approach that simultaneously compresses the natural control and state parameters of high-dimensional complex systems and introduces a scaling factor for recovery rates. Our theoretical framework places various systems with entirely different dynamical parameters, network structure and state perturbations on the same scale. More importantly, it compares distances to tipping points across different systems on the basis of data on abundance and topology. By applying the method to 54 real-world mutualistic networks, our analytical results unveil the network characteristics and system parameters that control a system's resilience. We contribute to the ongoing efforts in developing a general framework for mapping and predicting distance to tipping points of ecological and potentially other systems.

Detection of social-ecological drivers and impact thresholds of ecological degradation and ecological restoration in the last three decades

Special consideration should be given to the differential coupling relationships between natural and anthropogenic factors on ecological degradation and ecological restoration. However, few studies have focused on how to quantify the contribution rate of social-ecological interactions to vegetation growth and determine the impact thresholds of vegetation coverage at the county scale. Notably, it is more conducive to evaluating the impact of anthropogenic factors on vegetation coverage by integrating ecological land use policy into the research framework. This study combined remote sensing technology, as well as the Geo-detector model and elasticity coefficient to identify the key factors affecting ecological degradation and ecological restoration and quantitatively determine the impact thresholds from the aspects of climate change, topography, hydrological condition, human disturbance, and ecological land use policy. The results showed that ecosystems shifted from severe degradation (1990-2000) to restoration (2000-2010) and then to slight degradation (2010-2020). Meteorological factors and topographic factors revealed a stronger impact on ecological degradation and ecological restoration before the implementation of large-scale ecological engineering, and then they were most affected by ecological land use policy. In addition, the ecological thresholds of some factors were found in this study. Specifically, when average annual precipitation and slope reached the threshold of 523 mm and 5° respectively under ecological degradation, they had the greatest influence on vegetation coverage. Under ecological degradation and ecological restoration, the threshold of altitude was 1500 mm, and the threshold of drainage density was 10 and 14, respectively. The information from this study is expected to enhance the practical value of ecological research and provide an important reference for ecological standards and sustainable environmental management.

Bimodal distribution of seafloor microbiota diversity and function are associated with marine aquaculture

The aim of the current work was to investigate the impact of marine aquaculture on seafloor biogeochemistry and diversity from pristine environments in the northern part of Norway. Our analytical approach included analyses of 182 samples from 16 aquaculture sites using 16S and 18S rRNA, shotgun analyses, visual examination of macro-organisms, in addition to chemical measurements. We observed a clear bimodal distribution of the prokaryote composition and richness, determined by analyses of 16S rRNA gene operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The high OTU richness cluster was associated with non-perturbed environments and farness from the aquaculture sites, while the low OTU richness cluster was associated with perturbed environments and proximity to the aquaculture sites. Similar patterns were also observed for eukaryotes using 18S rRNA gene analyses and visual examination, but without a bimodal distribution of OTU richness. Shotgun sequencing showed the archaeum Nitrosopumilus as dominant for the high OTU richness cluster, and the epsilon protobacterium Sulfurovum as dominant for the low OTU richness cluster. Metabolic reconstruction of Nitrosopumilus indicates nitrification as the main metabolic pathway. Sulfurovum, on the other hand, was associated with sulfur oxidation and denitrification. Changes in nitrogen and sulfur metabolism is proposed as a potential explanation for the difference between the high and low OTU richness clusters. In conclusion, these findings suggest that pollution from elevated loads of organic waste drives the microbiota towards a complete alteration of respiratory routes and species composition, in addition to a collapse in prokaryote OTU richness.

Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale

Lakes can change dramatically following a slow change in conditions. They can abruptly shift from being oligotrophic to eutrophic or vice versa, in what is called a regime shift. Despite the important consequences for ecosystems and human activities of abrupt shifts, we do not know how frequent they are or how they are distributed globally. To answer these questions, we analyze lake productivity dynamics of 1,015 lakes worldwide. Our results show few experienced regime shifts, yet the occurrence of observed regime shifts is increasing over time. Our analysis' global scope allows us to better understand the occurrence of regime shifts and the socioeconomic drivers associated with them. This knowledge will help manage lakes' response to global change.

Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing. Here, we provide a first global assessment of regime shifts and stability in the productivity of 1,015 lakes worldwide using trophic state index (TSI) time series derived from satellite imagery. We find that 12.8% of the lakes studied show regime shifts whose signatures are compatible with tipping points, while the number of detected regime shifts from low to high TSI has increased over time. Although our results suggest an overall stable picture for global lake dynamics, the limited instability signatures do not mean that lakes are insensitive to global change. Modeling the interaction between lake climatic, geophysical, and socioeconomic features and their stability properties, we find that the probability of a lake experiencing a tipping point increases with human population density in its catchment, while it decreases as the gross domestic product of that population increases. Our results show how quantifying lake productivity dynamics at a global scale highlights socioeconomic inequalities in conserving natural environments.

Critical rates of climate warming and abrupt collapse of ecosystems

In the age of climate warming, comprehension of ecosystems’ future is one of the pressing challenges to humanity. While most studies on climate warming focus on the ‘magnitude of change’ of the Earth’s temperature, the ‘rate’ at which it is increasing cannot be ruled out. Rapid warming has already caused sudden ecosystem transitions at numerous biodiversity hot spots; a mechanistic understanding of such transitions is crucial. Here, we study a slow–fast consumer–resource ecosystem interacting in rapid warming scenarios. Employing geometric singular perturbation theory, we find that while a gradual change in mean temperature may accord population persistence, a critical warming rate can drive the resource’s sudden collapse, termed a warming-induced abrupt transition. This further triggers the bottom-up effect, resulting in the extinction of the consumer. The difference between the optimum temperature of the resource’s growth rate and the habitat temperature is crucial in deciding the critical rate of warming. Consequently, species inhabiting extreme temperature regions are more susceptible to warming-induced collapse than those within intermediate temperature ranges. We find that stochastic fluctuations in the system can advance warming-induced transitions, and the efficacy of generic early warning signals to anticipate sudden transitions is challenged.

Threshold effects of climate change on benthic diatom communities: Evaluating impacts of salinity and wind disturbance on functional traits and benthic biomass

The responses of biotic communities and ecosystems to climate change may be abrupt and non-linear. Thus, resolving ecological threshold mechanisms is crucial for understanding the consequences of climate change and for improving environmental management. Here, we present a study on the threshold responses of benthic diatom communities that are an important component of all aquatic environments and strongly contribute to global primary production. We reach beyond the taxonomic perspective by focusing on the diversity and functions of diatom communities and benthic biomass along gradients of salinity and wind disturbance, whose climate-change-induced changes have been predicted to strongly affect biotic communities in the marine and brackish systems in the future. To improve the generality of our results, we examine three self-collected datasets from different spatial scales (6-830 km) and ecosystem types. We collected samples from rock pools or from littoral stones and studied taxonomic thresholds using Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN2). We investigated threshold responses of community diversity, community functions, and benthic biomass using t-tests and regression analyses. Our results indicated that decreasing salinity may result in increasing diversity but decreasing biomass of brackish communities, while the effects of increasing wind disturbance were contradictory among spatial scales. Benthic biomass correlated with the taxonomic and functional diversity, as well as with the body size distribution of communities, highlighting the importance of considering community functions and organismal size when predicting ecosystem functions. The most pronounced effects of decreasing salinity and increasing wind disturbance on community functions were changes in the abundance of low-profile diatom species, which, due to the high resilience of low-profile diatoms, may lead to changes in ecosystem functioning and resilience. To conclude, decreasing salinity and increasing wind disturbance may lead to threshold responses of biotic communities, and these changes may have profound effects on ecosystem functioning along marine coastal areas.

Understanding the combined effects of multiple stressors: A new perspective on a longstanding challenge

Wildlife populations and their habitats are exposed to an expanding diversity and intensity of stressors caused by human activities, within the broader context of natural processes and increasing pressure from climate change. Estimating how these multiple stressors affect individuals, populations, and ecosystems is thus of growing importance. However, their combined effects often cannot be predicted reliably from the individual effects of each stressor, and we lack the mechanistic understanding and analytical tools to predict their joint outcomes. We review the science of multiple stressors and present a conceptual framework that captures and reconciles the variety of existing approaches for assessing combined effects. Specifically, we show that all approaches lie along a spectrum, reflecting increasing assumptions about the mechanisms that regulate the action of single stressors and their combined effects. An emphasis on mechanisms improves analytical precision and predictive power but could introduce bias if the underlying assumptions are incorrect. A purely empirical approach has less risk of bias but requires adequate data on the effects of the full range of anticipated combinations of stressor types and magnitudes. We illustrate how this spectrum can be formalised into specific analytical methods, using an example of North Atlantic right whales feeding on limited prey resources while simultaneously being affected by entanglement in fishing gear. In practice, case-specific management needs and data availability will guide the exploration of the stressor combinations of interest and the selection of a suitable trade-off between precision and bias. We argue that the primary goal for adaptive management should be to identify the most practical and effective ways to remove or reduce specific combinations of stressors, bringing the risk of adverse impacts on populations and ecosystems below acceptable thresholds.

A whole-ecosystem experiment reveals flow-induced shifts in a stream community

The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible changes to the functioning of freshwater ecosystems compels robust measures of tipping point thresholds. To determine benthic cyanobacteria regime shifts in a potable water supply system in the tropical Andes, we conducted a whole ecosystem-scale experiment in which we systematically diverted 20 to 90% of streamflow and measured ecological responses. Benthic cyanobacteria greatly increased with a 60% flow reduction and this tipping point was related to water temperature and nitrate concentration increases, both known to boost algal productivity. We supplemented our experiment with a regional survey collecting > 1450 flow-benthic algal measurements at streams varying in water abstraction levels. We confirmed the tipping point flow value, albeit at a slightly lower threshold (40-50%). A global literature review broadly confirmed our results with a mean tipping point at 58% of flow reduction. Our study provides robust in situ demonstrations of regime shift thresholds in running waters with potentially strong implications for environmental flows management.

Field experiments underestimate aboveground biomass response to drought

Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to experimentally imposed drought events as to natural droughts. Our findings indicate that experimental results may underestimate climate change impacts and highlight the need to integrate results across approaches.

Ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean revealed from the unprecedented reduction in marine growth of Atlantic salmon

Ecological regime shifts are abrupt changes in the structure and function of ecosystems that persist over time, but evidence of contemporary regime shifts are rare. Historical scale data from 52,384 individual wild Atlantic salmon caught in 180 rivers from 1989 to 2017 reveal that growth of Atlantic salmon across the Northeast Atlantic Ocean abruptly decreased following the year 2004. At the same time, the proportion of early maturing Atlantic salmon decreased. These changes occurred after a marked decrease in the extent of Arctic water in the Norwegian Sea, a subsequent warming of spring water temperature before Atlantic salmon entering the sea, and an approximately 50% reduction of zooplankton across large geographic areas of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. A sudden decrease in growth was also observed among Atlantic mackerel in the Norwegian Sea. Our results point toward an ecosystem-scale regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean.

An integrated assessment of the Good Environmental Status of Mediterranean Marine Protected Areas

Local, regional and global targets have been set to halt marine biodiversity loss. Europe has set its own policy targets to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) of marine ecosystems by implementing the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) across member states. We combined an extensive dataset across five Mediterranean ecoregions including 26 Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), their reference unprotected areas, and a no-trawl case study. Our aim was to assess if MPAs reach GES, if their effects are local or can be detected at ecoregion level or up to a Mediterranean scale, and which are the ecosystem components driving GES achievement. This was undertaken by using the analytical tool NEAT (Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool), which allows an integrated assessment of the status of marine systems. We adopted an ecosystem approach by integrating data from several ecosystem components: the seagrass Posidonia oceanica, macroalgae, sea urchins and fish. Thresholds to define the GES were set by dedicated workshops and literature review. In the Western Mediterranean, most MPAs are in good/high status, with P. oceanica and fish driving this result within MPAs. However, GES is achieved only at a local level, and the Mediterranean Sea, as a whole, results in a moderate environmental status. Macroalgal forests are overall in bad condition, confirming their status at risk. The results are significantly affected by the assumption that discrete observations over small spatial scales are representative of the total extension investigated. This calls for large-scale, dedicated assessments to realistically detect environmental status changes under different conditions. Understanding MPAs effectiveness in reaching GES is crucial to assess their role as sentinel observatories of marine systems. MPAs and trawling bans can locally contribute to the attainment of GES and to the fulfillment of the MSFD objectives. Building confidence in setting thresholds between GES and non-GES, investing in long-term monitoring, increasing the spatial extent of sampling areas, rethinking and broadening the scope of complementary tools of protection (e.g., Natura 2000 Sites), are indicated as solutions to ameliorate the status of the basin.

Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development

While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be detrimental to this cause. Locked‐in debates are often unnecessarily polarised and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked‐in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social‐ecological systems in general. We identified four features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked‐in debates: (1) The strongly context‐dependent behaviour of ecological systems. (2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. (3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. (4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.

Animal board invited review: Animal source foods in healthy, sustainable, and ethical diets - An argument against drastic limitation of livestock in the food system

Animal source foods are evolutionarily appropriate foods for humans. It is therefore remarkable that they are now presented by some as unhealthy, unsustainable, and unethical, particularly in the urban West. The benefits of consuming them are nonetheless substantial, as they offer a wide spectrum of nutrients that are needed for cell and tissue development, function, and survival. They play a role in proper physical and cognitive development of infants, children, and adolescents, and help promote maintenance of physical function with ageing. While high-red meat consumption in the West is associated with several forms of chronic disease, these associations remain uncertain in other cultural contexts or when consumption is part of wholesome diets. Besides health concerns, there is also widespread anxiety about the environmental impacts of animal source foods. Although several production methods are detrimental (intensive cropping for feed, overgrazing, deforestation, water pollution, etc.) and require substantial mitigation, damaging impacts are not intrinsic to animal husbandry. When well-managed, livestock farming contributes to ecosystem management and soil health, while delivering high-quality foodstuffs through the upcycling of resources that are otherwise non-suitable for food production, making use of marginal land and inedible materials (forage, by-products, etc.), integrating livestock and crop farming where possible has the potential to benefit plant food production through enhanced nutrient recycling, while minimising external input needs such as fertilisers and pesticides. Moreover, the impacts on land use, water wastage, and greenhouse gas emissions are highly contextual, and their estimation is often erroneous due to a reductionist use of metrics. Similarly, whether animal husbandry is ethical or not depends on practical specificities, not on the fact that animals are involved. Such discussions also need to factor in that animal husbandry plays an important role in culture, societal well-being, food security, and the provision of livelihoods. We seize this opportunity to argue for less preconceived assumptions about alleged effects of animal source foods on the health of the planet and the humans and animals involved, for less top-down planning based on isolated metrics or (Western) technocratic perspectives, and for more holistic and circumstantial approaches to the food system.

Low statistical power and overestimated anthropogenic impacts, exacerbated by publication bias, dominate field studies in global change biology

Field studies are essential to reliably quantify ecological responses to global change because they are exposed to realistic climate manipulations. Yet such studies are limited in replicates, resulting in less power and, therefore, potentially unreliable effect estimates. Furthermore, while manipulative field experiments are assumed to be more powerful than non-manipulative observations, it has rarely been scrutinized using extensive data. Here, using 3847 field experiments that were designed to estimate the effect of environmental stressors on ecosystems, we systematically quantified their statistical power and magnitude (Type M) and sign (Type S) errors. Our investigations focused upon the reliability of field experiments to assess the effect of stressors on both ecosystem's response magnitude and variability. When controlling for publication bias, single experiments were underpowered to detect response magnitude (median power: 18%-38% depending on effect sizes). Single experiments also had much lower power to detect response variability (6%-12% depending on effect sizes) than response magnitude. Such underpowered studies could exaggerate estimates of response magnitude by 2-3 times (Type M errors) and variability by 4-10 times. Type S errors were comparatively rare. These observations indicate that low power, coupled with publication bias, inflates the estimates of anthropogenic impacts. Importantly, we found that meta-analyses largely mitigated the issues of low power and exaggerated effect size estimates. Rather surprisingly, manipulative experiments and non-manipulative observations had very similar results in terms of their power, Type M and S errors. Therefore, the previous assumption about the superiority of manipulative experiments in terms of power is overstated. These results call for highly powered field studies to reliably inform theory building and policymaking, via more collaboration and team science, and large-scale ecosystem facilities. Future studies also require transparent reporting and open science practices to approach reproducible and reliable empirical work and evidence synthesis.