Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories

The Sequential Direct and Indirect Effects of Mountain Uplift, Climatic Niche, and Floral Trait Evolution on Diversification Dynamics in an Andean Plant Clade

Why and how organismal lineages radiate is commonly studied through either assessing abiotic factors (biogeography, geomorphological processes, and climate) or biotic factors (traits and interactions). Despite increasing awareness that both abiotic and biotic processes may have important joint effects on diversification dynamics, few attempts have been made to quantify the relative importance and timing of these factors, and their potentially interlinked direct and indirect effects, on lineage diversification. We here combine assessments of historical biogeography, geomorphology, climatic niche, vegetative, and floral trait evolution to test whether these factors jointly, or in isolation, explain diversification dynamics of a Neotropical plant clade (Merianieae, Melastomataceae). After estimating ancestral areas and the changes in niche and trait disparity over time, we employ Phylogenetic Path Analyses as a synthesis tool to test eleven hypotheses on the individual direct and indirect effects of these factors on diversification rates. We find strongest support for interlinked effects of colonization of the uplifting Andes during the mid-Miocene and rapid abiotic climatic niche evolution in explaining a burst in diversification rate in Merianieae. Within Andean habitats, later increases in floral disparity allowed for the exploitation of wider pollination niches (i.e., shifts from bee to vertebrate pollinators), but did not affect diversification rates. Our approach of including both vegetative and floral trait evolution, rare in assessments of plant diversification in general, highlights that the evolution of woody habit and larger flowers preceded the colonization of the Andes, but was likely critical in enabling the rapid radiation in montane environments. Overall, and in concert with the idea that ecological opportunity is a key element of evolutionary radiations, our results suggest that a combination of rapid niche evolution and trait shifts was critical for the exploitation of newly available niche space in the Andes in the mid-Miocene. Further, our results emphasize the importance of incorporating both abiotic and biotic factors into the same analytical framework if we aim to quantify the relative and interlinked effects of these processes on diversification.

Fossils can reveal a long-vanished combination of character states: Evidence from a mysterious foliicolous anamorphic fungus from the Middle Siwalik (Late Miocene) of Himachal Pradesh, India

Fossils can unveil a long-vanished combination of character states that inform inferences about the timing and patterns of diversification of modern fungi. By examining the well-preserved stacked chained vesicular conidiophores developed in clusters from the basal stroma, we describe a new taxon of fossil Zygosporiaceae with a combination of characters unknown among extant taxa on compressed serrated-margined dicot leaf (cf. Fagaceae) recovered from the Siwalik sediments (Late Miocene; ca. 12-8 Ma) of Himachal Pradesh, western Himalaya. Based upon conidiophore morphology, our Siwalik fungal remains, similar to Zygosporium Mont. (Zygosporiaceae: Xylariales: Sordariomycetes), are recognized as a new fossil species, Z. stromaticum Kundu & Khan, sp. nov. Zygosporium stromaticum is the only known fossil anamorphic fungus that occurs on plant cuticles and has a cluster of stacked chained vesicular conidiophores arising from a poorly preserved basal stroma formed by irregular, thick-walled cells. Its combination of morphological characteristics is unknown in extant fungal taxa, so Z. stromaticum likely represents a new anamorphic foliicolous fungus that may now be extinct. This unique evidence may be essential for the calibration of divergence time estimations of fungal lineages.

Identifying the multiple drivers of cactus diversification

Our understanding of the complexity of forces at play in the rise of major angiosperm lineages remains incomplete. The diversity and heterogeneous distribution of most angiosperm lineages is so extraordinary that it confounds our ability to identify simple drivers of diversification. Using machine learning in combination with phylogenetic modelling, we show that five separate abiotic and biotic variables significantly contribute to the diversification of Cactaceae. We reconstruct a comprehensive phylogeny, build a dataset of 39 abiotic and biotic variables, and predict the variables of central importance, while accounting for potential interactions between those variables. We use state-dependent diversification models to confirm that five abiotic and biotic variables shape diversification in the cactus family. Of highest importance are diurnal air temperature range, soil sand content and plant size, with lesser importance identified in isothermality and geographic range size. Interestingly, each of the estimated optimal conditions for abiotic variables were intermediate, indicating that cactus diversification is promoted by moderate, not extreme, climates. Our results reveal the potential primary drivers of cactus diversification, and the need to account for the complexity underlying the evolution of angiosperm lineages.

The origin and morphological character evolution of the paleotropical woody bamboos

The woody bamboos (Bambusoideae) exhibit distinctive biological traits within Poaceae, such as highly lignified culms, rapid shoot growth, monocarpic mass flowering and nutlike or fleshy caryopses. Much of the remarkable morphological diversity across the subfamily exists within a single hexaploid clade, the paleotropical woody bamboos (PWB), making it ideal to investigate the factors underlying morphological evolution in woody bamboos. However, the origin and biogeographical history of PWB remain elusive, as does the effect of environmental factors on the evolution of their morphological characters. We generated a robust and time-calibrated phylogeny of PWB using single nucleotide polymorphisms retrieved from optimized double digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing, and explored the evolutionary trends of habit, inflorescence, and caryopsis type in relation to environmental factors including climate, soil, and topography. We inferred that the PWB started to diversify across the Oligocene-Miocene boundary and formed four major clades, that is, Melocanninae, Racemobambosinae s.l. (comprising Dinochloinae, Greslanlinae, Racemobambosinae s.str. and Temburongiinae), Hickeliinae and Bambusinae s.l. (comprising Bambusinae s.str. plus Holttumochloinae). The ancestor of PWB was reconstructed as having erect habit, indeterminate inflorescence and basic caryopsis. The characters including climbing/scrambling habit, determinate inflorescence, and nucoid/bacoid caryopsis have since undergone multiple changes and reversals during the diversification of PWB. The evolution of all three traits was correlated with, and hence likely influenced by, aspects of climate, topography, and soil, with climate factors most strongly correlated with morphological traits, and soil factors least so. However, topography had more influence than climate or soil on the evolution of erect habit, whereas both factors had greater effect on the evolution of bacoid caryopsis than did soil. Our results provide novel insights into morphological diversity and adaptive evolution in bamboos for future ecological and evolutionary research.

High-resolution epidemiological landscape from ~290,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark

Vast amounts of pathogen genomic, demographic and spatial data are transforming our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 emergence and spread. We examined the drivers of molecular evolution and spread of 291,791 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark in 2021. With a sequencing rate consistently exceeding 60%, and up to 80% of PCR-positive samples between March and November, the viral genome set is broadly whole-epidemic representative. We identify a consistent rise in viral diversity over time, with notable spikes upon the importation of novel variants (e.g., Delta and Omicron). By linking genomic data with rich individual-level demographic data from national registers, we find that individuals aged  < 15 and  > 75 years had a lower contribution to molecular change (i.e., branch lengths) compared to other age groups, but similar molecular evolutionary rates, suggesting a lower likelihood of introducing novel variants. Similarly, we find greater molecular change among vaccinated individuals, suggestive of immune evasion. We also observe evidence of transmission in rural areas to follow predictable diffusion processes. Conversely, urban areas are expectedly more complex due to their high mobility, emphasising the role of population structure in driving virus spread. Our analyses highlight the added value of integrating genomic data with detailed demographic and spatial information, particularly in the absence of structured infection surveys.

A critique of Thompson and Ramírez-Barahona (2023) or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the fossil record

A recent study published in Biology Letters by Thompson and Ramírez-Barahona (2023) argued that, according to analyses of diversification on two massive molecular phylogenies comprising thousands of species, there is no evidence that angiosperms (i.e. flowering plants) were affected by the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Here, I critique these conclusions from both methodological and philosophical perspectives. I demonstrate that the methods used in their study possess statistical limitations that strongly reduce the power to detect a true mass extinction event using data similar to those analysed by Thompson and Ramírez-Barahona (2023). Additionally, I use their study as a springboard to examine the relationship between phylogenetic and fossil evidence in diversification studies.

Pelagic zone is an evolutionary catalyst, but an ecological dead end, for North American minnows

The colonization of a novel geographic area is a classic source of ecological opportunity. Likewise, complex microhabitats are thought to promote biodiversity. We sought to reconcile these two predictions when they are naturally opposing outcomes. We assess the macroevolutionary consequences of an ancestral shift from benthic to pelagic microhabitat zones on rates of speciation and phenotypic evolution in North American minnows. Pelagic species have more similar phenotypes and slower rates of phenotypic evolution, but faster speciation rates, than benthic species. These are likely two independent, opposing responses to specialization along the benthic-pelagic axis, as rates of phenotypic evolution and speciation are not directly correlated. The pelagic zone is more structurally homogenous and offers less ecological opportunity, acting as an ecological dead end for minnows. In contrast, pelagic species may be more mobile and prone to dispersal and subsequent geographic isolation and, consequently, experience elevated instances of allopatric speciation. Microhabitat shifts can have decoupled effects on different dimensions of biodiversity, highlighting the need for nuance when interpreting the macroevolutionary consequences of ecological opportunity.

Sequential trait evolution did not drive deep-time diversification in sharks

Estimating how traits evolved and impacted diversification across the tree of life represents a critical topic in ecology and evolution. Although there has been considerable research in comparative biology, large parts of the tree of life remain underexplored. Sharks are an iconic clade of marine vertebrates, and key components of marine ecosystems since the early Mesozoic. However, few studies have addressed how traits evolved or whether they impacted their extant diversity patterns. Our study aimed to fill this gap by reconstructing the largest time-calibrated species-level phylogeny of sharks and compiling an exhaustive database for ecological (diet, habitat) and biological (reproduction, maximum body length) traits. Using state-of-the-art models of evolution and diversification, we outlined the major character shifts and modes of trait evolution across shark species. We found support for sequential models of trait evolution and estimated a small to medium-sized lecithotrophic and coastal-dwelling most recent common ancestor for extant sharks. However, our exhaustive hidden traits analyses do not support trait-dependent diversification for any examined traits, challenging previous works. This suggests that the role of traits in shaping sharks' diversification dynamics might have been previously overestimated and should motivate future macroevolutionary studies to investigate other drivers of diversification in this clade.

The Evolution of Multiple Color Mechanisms Is Correlated with Diversification in Sunbirds (Nectariniidae)

How and why certain groups become speciose is a key question in evolutionary biology. Novel traits that enable diversification by opening new ecological niches are likely important mechanisms. However, ornamental traits can also promote diversification by opening up novel sensory niches and thereby creating novel inter-specific interactions. More specifically, ornamental colors may enable more precise and/or easier species recognition and may act as key innovations by increasing the number of species-specific patterns and promoting diversification. While the influence of coloration on diversification is well-studied, the influence of the mechanisms that produce those colors (e.g., pigmentary, nanostructural) is less so, even though the ontogeny and evolution of these mechanisms differ. We estimated a new phylogenetic tree for 121 sunbird species and combined color data of 106 species with a range of phylogenetic tools to test the hypothesis that the evolution of novel color mechanisms increases diversification in sunbirds, one of the most colorful bird clades. Results suggest that: (1) the evolution of novel color mechanisms expands the visual sensory niche, increasing the number of achievable colors, (2) structural coloration diverges more readily across the body than pigment-based coloration, enabling an increase in color complexity, (3) novel color mechanisms might minimize trade-offs between natural and sexual selection such that color can function both as camouflage and conspicuous signal, and (4) despite structural colors being more colorful and mobile, only melanin-based coloration is positively correlated with net diversification. Together, these findings explain why color distances increase with an increasing number of sympatric species, even though packing of color space predicts otherwise.

A Diffusion-Based Approach for Simulating Forward-in-Time State-Dependent Speciation and Extinction Dynamics

We establish a general framework using a diffusion approximation to simulate forward-in-time state counts or frequencies for cladogenetic state-dependent speciation-extinction (ClaSSE) models. We apply the framework to various two- and three-region geographic-state speciation-extinction (GeoSSE) models. We show that the species range state dynamics simulated under tree-based and diffusion-based processes are comparable. We derive a method to infer rate parameters that are compatible with given observed stationary state frequencies and obtain an analytical result to compute stationary state frequencies for a given set of rate parameters. We also describe a procedure to find the time to reach the stationary frequencies of a ClaSSE model using our diffusion-based approach, which we demonstrate using a worked example for a two-region GeoSSE model. Finally, we discuss how the diffusion framework can be applied to formalize relationships between evolutionary patterns and processes under state-dependent diversification scenarios.

Cenozoic seeds of Vitaceae reveal a deep history of extinction and dispersal in the Neotropics

The remarkably diverse plant communities of the Neotropics are the result of diversification driven by multiple biotic (for example, speciation, extinction and dispersal) and abiotic (for example, climatic and tectonic) processes. However, in the absence of a well-preserved, thoroughly sampled and critically assessed fossil record, the associated processes of dispersal and extinction are poorly understood. We report an exceptional case study documenting patterns of extinction in the grape family (Vitaceae Juss.) on the basis of fossil seeds discovered in four Neotropical palaeofloras dated between 60 and 19 Ma. These include a new species that provides the earliest evidence of Vitaceae in the Western Hemisphere. Eight additional species reveal the former presence of major clades of the family that are currently absent from the Neotropics and elucidate previously unknown dispersal events. Our results indicate that regional extinction and dispersal have substantially impacted the evolutionary history of Vitaceae in the Neotropics. They also suggest that while the Neotropics have been dynamic centres of diversification through the Cenozoic, extant Neotropical botanical diversity has also been shaped by extensive extinction over the past 66 million years.

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid-Permian synapsid extinctions

In the last decade, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) process has yielded interesting clues about the evolution of biodiversity through time. To facilitate such studies, we extend our method to compute the probability density of phylogenetic trees of extant and extinct taxa in which the only temporal information is provided by the fossil ages (i.e. without the divergence times) in order to deal with the piecewise constant FBD process, known as the "skyline FBD", which allows rates to change between pre-defined time intervals, as well as modelling extinction events at the bounds of these intervals. We develop approaches based on this method to assess hypotheses about the diversification process and to answer questions such as "Does a mass extinction occur at this time?" or "Is there a change in the fossilization rate between two given periods?". Our software can also yield Bayesian and maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of the skyline FBD model under various constraints. These approaches are applied to a simulated dataset in order to test their ability to answer the questions above. Finally, we study an updated dataset of Permo-Carboniferous synapsids to get additional insights into the dynamics of biodiversity change in three clades (Ophiacodontidae, Edaphosauridae and Sphenacodontidae) in the Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) and Cisuralian (Early Permian), and to assess support for end-Sakmarian (or Artinskian) and end-Cisuralian mass extinction events discussed in previous studies.

Imbalanced speciation pulses sustain the radiation of mammals

The evolutionary histories of major clades, including mammals, often comprise changes in their diversification dynamics, but how these changes occur remains debated. We combined comprehensive phylogenetic and fossil information in a new "birth-death diffusion" model that provides a detailed characterization of variation in diversification rates in mammals. We found an early rising and sustained diversification scenario, wherein speciation rates increased before and during the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. The K-Pg mass extinction event filtered out more slowly speciating lineages and was followed by a subsequent slowing in speciation rates rather than rebounds. These dynamics arose from an imbalanced speciation process, with separate lineages giving rise to many, less speciation-prone descendants. Diversity seems to have been brought about by these isolated, fast-speciating lineages, rather than by a few punctuated innovations.

To and fro in the archipelago: Repeated inter-island dispersal and New Guinea's orogeny affect diversification of Delias, the world's largest butterfly genus

The world's largest butterfly genus Delias, commonly known as Jezebels, comprises ca. 251 species found throughout Asia, Australia, and Melanesia. Most species are endemic to islands in the Indo-Australian Archipelago or to New Guinea and nearby islands in Melanesia, and many species are restricted to montane habitats over 1200 m. We inferred an extensively sampled and well-supported molecular phylogeny of the group to better understand the spatial and temporal dimensions of its diversification. The remarkable diversity of Delias evolved in just ca. 15-16 Myr (crown age). The most recent common ancestor of a clade with most of the species dispersed out of New Guinea ca. 14 Mya, but at least six subsequently diverging lineages dispersed back to the island. Diversification was associated with frequent dispersal of lineages among the islands of the Indo-Australian Archipelago, and the divergence of sister taxa on a single landmass was rare and occurred only on the largest islands, most notably on New Guinea. We conclude that frequent inter-island dispersal during the Neogene-likely facilitated by frequent sea level change-sparked much diversification during that period. Many extant New Guinea lineages started diversifying 5 Mya, suggesting that orogeny facilitated their diversification. Our results largely agree with the most recently proposed species group classification system, and we use our large taxon sample to extend this system to all described species. Finally, we summarize recent insights to speculate how wing pattern evolution, mimicry, and sexual selection might also contribute to these butterflies' rapid speciation and diversification.

Systematics and evolutionary dynamics of insect-fern interactions in the specialized fern-spore feeding Cuprininae (Lepidoptera, Stathmopodidae)

Fern-spore-feeding (FSF) is rare and found in only four families of Lepidoptera. Stathmopodidae is the most speciose family that contains FSF species, and its subfamily Cuprininae exclusively specializes on FSF. However, three species of Stathmopodinae also specialize on FSF. To better understand the evolutionary history of FSF and, more generally, the significance of specialization on a peculiar host, a phylogenetic and taxonomic revision for this group is necessary. We reconstructed the most comprehensive molecular phylogeny, including one mitochondrial and four nuclear genes, of Stathmopodidae to date, including 137 samples representing 62 species, with a particular focus on the FSF subfamily, Cuprininae, including 33 species (41% of named species) from 6 of the 7 Cuprininae genera. Species from two other subfamilies, Stathmopodinae and Atkinsoniinae, were also included. We found that FSF evolved only once in Stathmopodidae and that the previous hypothesis of multiple origins of FSF was misled by inadequate taxonomy. Moreover, we showed that (1) speciation/extinction rates do not differ significantly between FSF and non-FSF groups and that (2) oligophage is the ancestral character state in Cuprininae. We further revealed that a faster rate of accumulating specialists over time, and thus a higher number of specialists, was achieved by a higher transition rate from oligophagages to specialists compared to the transition rate in the opposite direction. We finish by describing three new genera, Trigonodagen. nov., Petalagen. nov., and Pediformisgen. nov., and revalidating five genera: Cuprina, Calicotis, Thylacosceles, Actinoscelis, Thylacosceloides in Cuprininae, and we provide an updated taxonomic key to genera and a revised global checklist of Cuprininae.

Phylogenomics and the rise of the angiosperms

Angiosperms are the cornerstone of most terrestrial ecosystems and human livelihoods1,2. A robust understanding of angiosperm evolution is required to explain their rise to ecological dominance. So far, the angiosperm tree of life has been determined primarily by means of analyses of the plastid genome3,4. Many studies have drawn on this foundational work, such as classification and first insights into angiosperm diversification since their Mesozoic origins5-7. However, the limited and biased sampling of both taxa and genomes undermines confidence in the tree and its implications. Here, we build the tree of life for almost 8,000 (about 60%) angiosperm genera using a standardized set of 353 nuclear genes8. This 15-fold increase in genus-level sampling relative to comparable nuclear studies9 provides a critical test of earlier results and brings notable change to key groups, especially in rosids, while substantiating many previously predicted relationships. Scaling this tree to time using 200 fossils, we discovered that early angiosperm evolution was characterized by high gene tree conflict and explosive diversification, giving rise to more than 80% of extant angiosperm orders. Steady diversification ensued through the remaining Mesozoic Era until rates resurged in the Cenozoic Era, concurrent with decreasing global temperatures and tightly linked with gene tree conflict. Taken together, our extensive sampling combined with advanced phylogenomic methods shows the deep history and full complexity in the evolution of a megadiverse clade.

Fossil-informed biogeographic analysis suggests Eurasian regionalization in crown Squamata during the early Jurassic

Background

Squamata (lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians) is a Triassic lineage with an extensive and complex biogeographic history, yet no large-scale study has reconstructed the ancestral range of early squamate lineages. The fossil record indicates a broadly Pangaean distribution by the end- Cretaceous, though many lineages (e.g., Paramacellodidae, Mosasauria, Polyglyphanodontia) subsequently went extinct. Thus, the origin and occupancy of extant radiations is unclear and may have been localized within Pangaea to specific plates, with potential regionalization to distinct Laurasian and Gondwanan landmasses during the Mesozoic in some groups.

Methods

We used recent tectonic models to code extant and fossil squamate distributions occurring on nine discrete plates for 9,755 species, with Jurassic and Cretaceous fossil constraints from three extinct lineages. We modeled ancestral ranges for crown Squamata from an extant-only molecular phylogeny using a suite of biogeographic models accommodating different evolutionary processes and fossil-based node constraints from known Jurassic and Cretaceous localities. We hypothesized that the best-fit models would not support a full Pangaean distribution (i.e., including all areas) for the origin of crown Squamata, but would instead show regionalization to specific areas within the fragmenting supercontinent, likely in the Northern Hemisphere where most early squamate fossils have been found.

Results

Incorporating fossil data reconstructs a localized origin within Pangaea, with early regionalization of extant lineages to Eurasia and Laurasia, while Gondwanan regionalization did not occur until the middle Cretaceous for Alethinophidia, Scolecophidia, and some crown Gekkotan lineages. While the Mesozoic history of extant squamate biogeography can be summarized as a Eurasian origin with dispersal out of Laurasia into Gondwana, their Cenozoic history is complex with multiple events (including secondary and tertiary recolonizations) in several directions. As noted by previous authors, squamates have likely utilized over-land range expansion, land-bridge colonization, and trans-oceanic dispersal. Tropical Gondwana and Eurasia hold more ancient lineages than the Holarctic (Rhineuridae being a major exception), and some asymmetries in colonization (e.g., to North America from Eurasia during the Cenozoic through Beringia) deserve additional study. Future studies that incorporate fossil branches, rather than as node constraints, into the reconstruction can be used to explore this history further.

Comprehensive phylogeny of Pieridae butterflies reveals strong correlation between diversification and temperature

Temperature is thought to be a key factor influencing global species richness patterns. We investigate the link between temperature and diversification in the butterfly family Pieridae by combining next generation DNA sequences and published molecular data with fine-grained distribution data. We sampled nearly 600 pierid butterfly species to infer the most comprehensive molecular phylogeny of the family and curated a distribution dataset of more than 800,000 occurrences. We found strong evidence that species in environments with more stable daily temperatures or cooler maximum temperatures in the warm seasons have higher speciation rates. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates decreased in tandem with global temperatures through geological time, resulting in a constant net diversification.

Commonly used Bayesian diversification methods lead to biologically meaningful differences in branch-specific rates on empirical phylogenies

Identifying along which lineages shifts in diversification rates occur is a central goal of comparative phylogenetics; these shifts may coincide with key evolutionary events such as the development of novel morphological characters, the acquisition of adaptive traits, polyploidization or other structural genomic changes, or dispersal to a new habitat and subsequent increase in environmental niche space. However, while multiple methods now exist to estimate diversification rates and identify shifts using phylogenetic topologies, the appropriate use and accuracy of these methods are hotly debated. Here we test whether five Bayesian methods-Bayesian Analysis of Macroevolutionary Mixtures (BAMM), two implementations of the Lineage-Specific Birth-Death-Shift model (LSBDS and PESTO), the approximate Multi-Type Birth-Death model (MTBD; implemented in BEAST2), and the Cladogenetic Diversification Rate Shift model (ClaDS2)-produce comparable results. We apply each of these methods to a set of 65 empirical time-calibrated phylogenies and compare inferences of speciation rate, extinction rate, and net diversification rate. We find that the five methods often infer different speciation, extinction, and net-diversification rates. Consequently, these different estimates may lead to different interpretations of the macroevolutionary dynamics. The different estimates can be attributed to fundamental differences among the compared models. Therefore, the inference of shifts in diversification rates is strongly method dependent. We advise biologists to apply multiple methods to test the robustness of the conclusions or to carefully select the method based on the validity of the underlying model assumptions to their particular empirical system.

Global analysis of Poales diversification - parallel evolution in space and time into open and closed habitats

Poales are one of the most species-rich, ecologically and economically important orders of plants and often characterise open habitats, enabled by unique suites of traits. We test six hypotheses regarding the evolution and assembly of Poales in open and closed habitats throughout the world, and examine whether diversification patterns demonstrate parallel evolution. We sampled 42% of Poales species and obtained taxonomic and biogeographic data from the World Checklist of Vascular Plants database, which was combined with open/closed habitat data scored by taxonomic experts. A dated supertree of Poales was constructed. We integrated spatial phylogenetics with regionalisation analyses, historical biogeography and ancestral state estimations. Diversification in Poales and assembly of open and closed habitats result from dynamic evolutionary processes that vary across lineages, time and space, most prominently in tropical and southern latitudes. Our results reveal parallel and recurrent patterns of habitat and trait transitions in the species-rich families Poaceae and Cyperaceae. Smaller families display unique and often divergent evolutionary trajectories. The Poales have achieved global dominance via parallel evolution in open habitats, with notable, spatially and phylogenetically restricted divergences into strictly closed habitats.

Scalable gradients enable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling for phylodynamic inference under episodic birth-death-sampling models

Birth-death models play a key role in phylodynamic analysis for their interpretation in terms of key epidemiological parameters. In particular, models with piecewise-constant rates varying at different epochs in time, to which we refer as episodic birth-death-sampling (EBDS) models, are valuable for their reflection of changing transmission dynamics over time. A challenge, however, that persists with current time-varying model inference procedures is their lack of computational efficiency. This limitation hinders the full utilization of these models in large-scale phylodynamic analyses, especially when dealing with high-dimensional parameter vectors that exhibit strong correlations. We present here a linear-time algorithm to compute the gradient of the birth-death model sampling density with respect to all time-varying parameters, and we implement this algorithm within a gradient-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to alleviate the computational burden of conducting inference under a wide variety of structures of, as well as priors for, EBDS processes. We assess this approach using three different real world data examples, including the HIV epidemic in Odesa, Ukraine, seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus dynamics in New York state, America, and Ebola outbreak in West Africa. HMC sampling exhibits a substantial efficiency boost, delivering a 10- to 200-fold increase in minimum effective sample size per unit-time, in comparison to a Metropolis-Hastings-based approach. Additionally, we show the robustness of our implementation in both allowing for flexible prior choices and in modeling the transmission dynamics of various pathogens by accurately capturing the changing trend of viral effective reproductive number.

Anatomy of a mega-radiation: Biogeography and niche evolution in Astragalus

PREMISE

Astragalus (Fabaceae), with more than 3000 species, represents a globally successful radiation of morphologically highly similar species predominant across the northern hemisphere. It has attracted attention from systematists and biogeographers, who have asked what factors might be behind the extraordinary diversity of this important arid-adapted clade and what sets it apart from close relatives with far less species richness.

METHODS

Here, for the first time using extensive phylogenetic sampling, we asked whether (1) Astragalus is uniquely characterized by bursts of radiation or whether diversification instead is uniform and no different from closely related taxa. Then we tested whether the species diversity of Astragalus is attributable specifically to its predilection for (2) cold and arid habitats, (3) particular soils, or to (4) chromosome evolution. Finally, we tested (5) whether Astragalus originated in central Asia as proposed and (6) whether niche evolutionary shifts were subsequently associated with the colonization of other continents.

RESULTS

Our results point to the importance of heterogeneity in the diversification of Astragalus, with upshifts associated with the earliest divergences but not strongly tied to any abiotic factor or biogeographic regionalization tested here. The only potential correlate with diversification we identified was chromosome number. Biogeographic shifts have a strong association with the abiotic environment and highlight the importance of central Asia as a biogeographic gateway.

CONCLUSIONS

Our investigation shows the importance of phylogenetic and evolutionary studies of logistically challenging "mega-radiations." Our findings reject any simple key innovation behind high diversity and underline the often nuanced, multifactorial processes leading to species-rich clades.

The macroevolutionary singularity of snakes

Snakes and lizards (Squamata) represent a third of terrestrial vertebrates and exhibit spectacular innovations in locomotion, feeding, and sensory processing. However, the evolutionary drivers of this radiation remain poorly known. We infer potential causes and ultimate consequences of squamate macroevolution by combining individual-based natural history observations (>60,000 animals) with a comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny that we anchored with genomic data (5400 loci) from 1018 species. Due to shifts in the dynamics of speciation and phenotypic evolution, snakes have transformed the trophic structure of animal communities through the recurrent origin and diversification of specialized predatory strategies. Squamate biodiversity reflects a legacy of singular events that occurred during the early history of snakes and reveals the impact of historical contingency on vertebrate biodiversity.

Genomes, fossils, and the concurrent rise of modern birds and flowering plants in the Late Cretaceous

The phylogeny and divergence timing of the Neoavian radiation remain controversial despite recent progress. We analyzed the genomes of 124 species across all Neoavian orders, using data from 25,460 loci spanning four DNA classes, including 5,756 coding sequences, 12,449 conserved nonexonic elements, 4,871 introns, and 2,384 intergenic segments. We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to account for the heterogeneity across different DNA classes, leading to an optimal tree of Neoaves with high resolution. This phylogeny features a novel Neoavian dichotomy comprising two monophyletic clades: a previously recognized Telluraves (land birds) and a newly circumscribed Aquaterraves (waterbirds and relatives). Molecular dating analyses with 20 fossil calibrations indicate that the diversification of modern birds began in the Late Cretaceous and underwent a constant and steady radiation across the KPg boundary, concurrent with the rise of angiosperms as well as other major Cenozoic animal groups including placental and multituberculate mammals. The KPg catastrophe had a limited impact on avian evolution compared to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which triggered a rapid diversification of seabirds. Our findings suggest that the evolution of modern birds followed a slow process of gradualism rather than a rapid process of punctuated equilibrium, with limited interruption by the KPg catastrophe. This study places bird evolution into a new context within vertebrates, with ramifications for the evolution of the Earth's biota.

Rapid in situ diversification rates in Rhamnaceae explain the parallel evolution of high diversity in temperate biomes from global to local scales

The macroevolutionary processes that have shaped biodiversity across the temperate realm remain poorly understood and may have resulted from evolutionary dynamics related to diversification rates, dispersal rates, and colonization times, closely coupled with Cenozoic climate change. We integrated phylogenomic, environmental ordination, and macroevolutionary analyses for the cosmopolitan angiosperm family Rhamnaceae to disentangle the evolutionary processes that have contributed to high species diversity within and across temperate biomes. Our results show independent colonization of environmentally similar but geographically separated temperate regions mainly during the Oligocene, consistent with the global expansion of temperate biomes. High global, regional, and local temperate diversity was the result of high in situ diversification rates, rather than high immigration rates or accumulation time, except for Southern China, which was colonized much earlier than the other regions. The relatively common lineage dispersals out of temperate hotspots highlight strong source-sink dynamics across the cosmopolitan distribution of Rhamnaceae. The proliferation of temperate environments since the Oligocene may have provided the ecological opportunity for rapid in situ diversification of Rhamnaceae across the temperate realm. Our study illustrates the importance of high in situ diversification rates for the establishment of modern temperate biomes and biodiversity hotspots across spatial scales.

Fifth mass extinction event triggered the diversification of the largest family of freshwater gastropods (Caenogastropoda: Truncatelloidea: Hydrobiidae)

The fifth mass extinction event (MEE) at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary 66 million years ago (Ma) led to massive species loss but also triggered the diversification of higher taxa. Five models have been proposed depending on whether this diversification occurred before, during or after the K-Pg boundary and the rate of species accumulation. While the effects of the K-Pg MEE on vertebrate evolution are relatively well understood, the impact on invertebrates, particularly in freshwater ecosystems, remains controversial. One example is the hyperdiverse Hydrobiidae-the most species-rich family of freshwater gastropods. Whereas some studies place its origin in the Jurassic or even Carboniferous, most fossil records postdate the K-Pg event. We therefore used robustly time-calibrated multi-locus phylogenies of >400 species representing >100 hydrobiid genera to unravel its evolutionary history and patterns of diversification. We found that the family started diversifying shortly after the K-Pg boundary (∼60 Ma; 95% highest posterior density 52-69 Ma). Lineage richness gradually increased to the present and phylogenetic diversity until ∼25 Ma. These findings suggest that diversification was not initially driven by ecological opportunity. Combining the two criteria of timing and rate of diversification, a soft-explosive diversification model of aquatic vertebrates best fits the patterns observed. We also show that most higher hydrobiid taxa (i.e. subfamilies) diversified from the Middle Oligocene to Middle Miocene (i.e. 12-28 Ma). Two of the 15 major clades delimited are described here as new subfamilies (i.e. Bullaregiinae n. subfam. and Pontobelgrandiellinae n. subfam.), whose members are restricted to subterranean waters. Our results are an important contribution to understanding how the fifth MEE has shaped evolution and patterns of biodiversity in continental aquatic systems. Given the high extinction risks faced by many hydrobiids today, they also emphasise the need to study the biodiversity of vulnerable ecosystems.

The causes of species richness patterns among clades

Two major types of species richness patterns are spatial (e.g. the latitudinal diversity gradient) and clade-based (e.g. the dominance of angiosperms among plants). Studies have debated whether clade-based richness patterns are explained primarily by larger clades having faster rates of species accumulation (speciation minus extinction over time; diversification-rate hypothesis) or by simply being older (clade-age hypothesis). However, these studies typically compared named clades of the same taxonomic rank, such as phyla and families. This study design is potentially biased against the clade-age hypothesis, since clades of the same rank may be more similar in age than randomly selected clades. Here, we analyse the causes of clade-based richness patterns across the tree of life using a large-scale, time-calibrated, species-level phylogeny and random sampling of clades. We find that within major groups of organisms (animals, plants, fungi, bacteria, archaeans), richness patterns are most strongly related to clade age. Nevertheless, weaker relationships with diversification rates are present in animals and plants. These overall results contrast with similar large-scale analyses across life based on named clades, which showed little effect of clade age on richness. More broadly, these results help support the overall importance of time for explaining diverse types of species richness patterns.

Genetic drift promotes and recombination hinders speciation on holey fitness landscapes

Dobzhansky and Muller proposed a general mechanism through which microevolution, the substitution of alleles within populations, can cause the evolution of reproductive isolation between populations and, therefore, macroevolution. As allopatric populations diverge, many combinations of alleles differing between them have not been tested by natural selection and may thus be incompatible. Such genetic incompatibilities often cause low fitness in hybrids between species. Furthermore, the number of incompatibilities grows with the genetic distance between diverging populations. However, what determines the rate and pattern of accumulation of incompatibilities remains unclear. We investigate this question by simulating evolution on holey fitness landscapes on which genetic incompatibilities can be identified unambiguously. We find that genetic incompatibilities accumulate more slowly among genetically robust populations and identify two determinants of the accumulation rate: recombination rate and population size. In large populations with abundant genetic variation, recombination selects for increased genetic robustness and, consequently, incompatibilities accumulate more slowly. In small populations, genetic drift interferes with this process and promotes the accumulation of genetic incompatibilities. Our results suggest a novel mechanism by which genetic drift promotes and recombination hinders speciation.

Diversification dynamics of a common deep-sea octocoral family linked to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The deep-sea has experienced dramatic changes in physical and chemical variables in the geological past. However, little is known about how deep-sea species richness responded to such changes over time and space. Here, we studied the diversification dynamics of one of the most diverse octocorallian families inhabiting deep sea benthonic environments worldwide and sustaining highly diverse ecosystems, Primnoidae. A newly dated species-level phylogeny was constructed to infer their ancestral geographic locations and dispersal rates initially. Then, we tested whether their global and regional (the Southern Ocean) diversification dynamics were mediated by dispersal rate and abiotic factors as changes in ocean geochemistry. Finally, we tested whether primnoids showed changes in speciation and extinction at discrete time points. Our results suggested primnoids likely originated in the southwestern Pacific Ocean during the Lower Cretaceous ∼112 Ma, with further dispersal after the physical separation of continental landmasses along the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Only the speciation rate of the Southern Ocean primnoids showed a significant correlation to ocean chemistry. Moreover, the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum marked a significant increase in the diversification of primnoids at global and regional scales. Our results provide new perspectives on the macroevolutionary and biogeographic patterns of an ecologically important benthic organism typically found in deep-sea environments.

The evolution of ectomycorrhizal symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous is a key driver of explosive diversification in Agaricomycetes

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) symbiosis, a ubiquitous plant-fungus interaction in forests, evolved in parallel in fungi. Why the evolution of EcM fungi did not necessarily increase ecological opportunities for explosive diversification remains unclear. This study aimed to reveal the driving mechanism of the evolutionary diversification in the fungal class Agaricomycetes, specifically by testing whether the evolution of EcM symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous increased ecological opportunities. The historical character transitions of trophic state and fruitbody form were estimated based on phylogenies inferred from fragments of 89 single-copy genes. Moreover, five analyses were used to estimate the net diversification rates (speciation rate minus extinction rate). The results indicate that the unidirectional evolution of EcM symbiosis occurred 27 times, ranging in date from the Early Triassic to the Early Paleogene. The increased diversification rates appeared to occur intensively at the stem of EcM fungal clades diverging in the Late Cretaceous, coinciding with the rapid diversification of EcM angiosperms. By contrast, the evolution of fruitbody form was not strongly linked with the increased diversification rates. These findings suggest that the evolution of EcM symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous, supposedly with coevolving EcM angiosperms, was the key drive of the explosive diversification in Agaricomycetes.

Skyline Fossilized Birth-Death Model is Robust to Violations of Sampling Assumptions in Total-Evidence Dating

Several total-evidence dating studies under the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model have produced very old age estimates, which are not supported by the fossil record. This phenomenon has been termed "deep root attraction (DRA)." For two specific data sets, involving divergence time estimation for the early radiations of ants, bees, and wasps (Hymenoptera) and of placental mammals (Eutheria), it has been shown that the DRA effect can be greatly reduced by accommodating the fact that extant species in these trees have been sampled to maximize diversity, so-called diversified sampling. Unfortunately, current methods to accommodate diversified sampling only consider the extreme case where it is possible to identify a cut-off time such that all splits occurring before this time are represented in the sampled tree but none of the younger splits. In reality, the sampling bias is rarely this extreme and may be difficult to model properly. Similar modeling challenges apply to the sampling of the fossil record. This raises the question of whether it is possible to find dating methods that are more robust to sampling biases. Here, we show that the skyline FBD (SFBD) process, where the diversification and fossil-sampling rates can vary over time in a piecewise fashion, provides age estimates that are more robust to inadequacies in the modeling of the sampling process and less sensitive to DRA effects. In the SFBD model we consider, rates in different time intervals are either considered to be independent and identically distributed or assumed to be autocorrelated following an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Through simulations and reanalyses of Hymenoptera and Eutheria data, we show that both variants of the SFBD model unify age estimates under random and diversified sampling assumptions. The SFBD model can resolve DRA by absorbing the deviations from the sampling assumptions into the inferred dynamics of the diversification process over time. Although this means that the inferred diversification dynamics must be interpreted with caution, taking sampling biases into account, we conclude that the SFBD model represents the most robust approach currently available for addressing DRA in total-evidence dating.

Completing a molecular timetree of apes and monkeys

The primate infraorder Simiiformes, comprising Old and New World monkeys and apes, includes the most well-studied species on earth. Their most comprehensive molecular timetree, assembled from thousands of published studies, is found in the TimeTree database and contains 268 simiiform species. It is, however, missing 38 out of 306 named species in the NCBI taxonomy for which at least one molecular sequence exists in the NCBI GenBank. We developed a three-pronged approach to expanding the timetree of Simiiformes to contain 306 species. First, molecular divergence times were searched and found for 21 missing species in timetrees published across 15 studies. Second, untimed molecular phylogenies were searched and scaled to time using relaxed clocks to add four more species. Third, we reconstructed ten new timetrees from genetic data in GenBank, allowing us to incorporate 13 more species. Finally, we assembled the most comprehensive molecular timetree of Simiiformes containing all 306 species for which any molecular data exists. We compared the species divergence times with those previously imputed using statistical approaches in the absence of molecular data. The latter data-less imputed times were not significantly correlated with those derived from the molecular data. Also, using phylogenies containing imputed times produced different trends of evolutionary distinctiveness and speciation rates over time than those produced using the molecular timetree. These results demonstrate that more complete clade-specific timetrees can be produced by analyzing existing information, which we hope will encourage future efforts to fill in the missing taxa in the global timetree of life.

Impact of the climatic changes in the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition on Irano-Turanian species. The radiation of genus Jurinea (Compositae)

The Irano-Turanian region is one of the world's richest floristic regions and the centre of diversity for numerous xerophytic plant lineages. However, we still have limited knowledge on the timing of evolution and biogeographic history of its flora, and potential drivers of diversification remain underexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, we focus on the Eurasian genus Jurinea (ca. 200 species), one of the largest plant radiations that diversified in the region. We applied a macroevolutionary integrative approach to explicitly test diversification hypotheses and investigate the relative roles of geography vs. ecology and niche conservatism vs. niche lability in speciation processes. To do so, we gathered a sample comprising 77% of total genus richness and obtained data about (1) its phylogenetic history, recovering 502 nuclear loci sequences; (2) growth forms; (3) ecological niche, compiling data of 21 variables for more than 2500 occurrences; and (4) paleoclimatic conditions, to estimate climatic stability. Our results revealed that climate was a key factor in the evolutionary dynamics of Jurinea. The main diversification and biogeographic events that occurred during past climate changes, which led to colder and drier conditions, are the following: (1) the origin of the genus (10.7 Ma); (2) long-distance dispersals from the Iranian Plateau to adjacent regions (∼7-4 Ma); and (3) the diversification shift during Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (ca. 3 Ma), when net diversification rate almost doubled. Our results supported the pre-adaptation hypothesis, i.e., the evolutionary success of Jurinea was linked to the retention of the ancestral niche adapted to aridity. Interestingly, the paleoclimatic analyses revealed that in the Iranian Plateau long-term climatic stability favoured old-lineage persistence, resulting in current high species richness of semi-arid and cold adapted clades; whereas moderate climate oscillations stimulated allopatric diversification in the lineages distributed in the Circumboreal region. In contrast, growth form lability and high niche disparity among closely related species in the Central Asian clade suggest adaptive radiation to mountain habitats. In sum, the radiation of Jurinea is the result of both adaptive and non-adaptive processes influenced by climatic, orogenic and ecological factors.

Dispersal modes affect Rhamnaceae diversification rates in a differentiated manner

The evolution of dispersal modes has been proposed to promote the diversification of angiosperms. However, little is known about the relative impact of different dispersal modes on plant diversification. We test the association between dispersal modes and diversification rates using Rhamnaceae, the cosmopolitan buckthorn family, as a model. We found that species with diplochory have the highest diversification rates followed by those with myrmecochory and ballistic dispersal, while lineages dispersed by vertebrates and wind have relatively low diversification rates. The difference in diversification rates may be closely linked to the difference in dispersal distance and ecological interactions implied by each dispersal mode. Species which disperse over larger geographical distances may have much higher speciation rates due to the increased chance of establishing isolated populations due to geological barriers or habitat fragmentation. However, long-distance dispersal may also increase the chance of extinction. By contrast, species with short-distance dispersal modes may have low speciation rates. Complex interactions with the surrounding environment may, however, impact diversification rates positively by increasing plant survival and reproductive success.

Diversification of flowering plants in space and time

The rapid diversification and high species richness of flowering plants is regarded as 'Darwin's second abominable mystery'. Today the global spatiotemporal pattern of plant diversification remains elusive. Using a newly generated genus-level phylogeny and global distribution data for 14,244 flowering plant genera, we describe the diversification dynamics of angiosperms through space and time. Our analyses show that diversification rates increased throughout the early Cretaceous and then slightly decreased or remained mostly stable until the end of the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago. After that, diversification rates increased again towards the present. Younger genera with high diversification rates dominate temperate and dryland regions, whereas old genera with low diversification dominate the tropics. This leads to a negative correlation between spatial patterns of diversification and genus diversity. Our findings suggest that global changes since the Cenozoic shaped the patterns of flowering plant diversity and support an emerging consensus that diversification rates are higher outside the tropics.

Angiosperm phylogenetic diversity is lower in Africa than South America

Although originating from a common Gondwanan flora, the diversity and composition of the floras of Africa and South America have greatly diverged since continental breakup of Africa from South America now having much higher plant species richness. However, the phylogenetic diversity of the floras and what this tells us about their evolution remained unexplored. We show that for a given species richness and considering land surface area, topography, and present-day climate, angiosperm phylogenetic diversity in South America is higher than in Africa. This relationship holds regardless of whether all climatically matched areas or only matched areas in tropical climates are considered. Phylogenetic diversity is high relative to species richness in refugial areas in Africa and in northwestern South America, once the gateway for immigration from the north. While species richness is strongly influenced by massive plant radiations in South America, we detect a pervasive influence of historical processes on the phylogenetic diversity of both the South American and African floras.

The radiation continuum and the evolution of frog diversity

Most of life's vast diversity of species and phenotypes is often attributed to adaptive radiation. Yet its contribution to species and phenotypic diversity of a major group has not been examined. Two key questions remain unresolved. First, what proportion of clades show macroevolutionary dynamics similar to adaptive radiations? Second, what proportion of overall species richness and phenotypic diversity do these adaptive-radiation-like clades contain? We address these questions with phylogenetic and morphological data for 1226 frog species across 43 families (which represent >99% of all species). Less than half of frog families resembled adaptive radiations (with rapid diversification and morphological evolution). Yet, these adaptive-radiation-like clades encompassed ~75% of both morphological and species diversity, despite rapid rates in other clades (e.g., non-adaptive radiations). Overall, we support the importance of adaptive-radiation-like evolution for explaining diversity patterns and provide a framework for characterizing macroevolutionary dynamics and diversity patterns in other groups.

Scalable gradients enable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling for phylodynamic inference under episodic birth-death-sampling models

Birth-death models play a key role in phylodynamic analysis for their interpretation in terms of key epidemiological parameters. In particular, models with piecewise-constant rates varying at different epochs in time, to which we refer as episodic birth-death-sampling (EBDS) models, are valuable for their reflection of changing transmission dynamics over time. A challenge, however, that persists with current time-varying model inference procedures is their lack of computational efficiency. This limitation hinders the full utilization of these models in large-scale phylodynamic analyses, especially when dealing with high-dimensional parameter vectors that exhibit strong correlations. We present here a linear-time algorithm to compute the gradient of the birth-death model sampling density with respect to all time-varying parameters, and we implement this algorithm within a gradient-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to alleviate the computational burden of conducting inference under a wide variety of structures of, as well as priors for, EBDS processes. We assess this approach using three different real world data examples, including the HIV epidemic in Odesa, Ukraine, seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus dynamics in New York state, America, and Ebola outbreak in West Africa. HMC sampling exhibits a substantial efficiency boost, delivering a 10- to 200-fold increase in minimum effective sample size per unit-time, in comparison to a Metropolis-Hastings-based approach. Additionally, we show the robustness of our implementation in both allowing for flexible prior choices and in modeling the transmission dynamics of various pathogens by accurately capturing the changing trend of viral effective reproductive number.

The macroevolutionary dynamics of activity pattern in mammals: Primates in context

Activity pattern has played a prominent role in discussions of primate evolutionary history. Most primates are either diurnal or nocturnal, but a small number are active both diurnally and nocturnally. This pattern-cathemerality-also occurs at low frequency across mammals. Using a large sample of mammalian species, this study evaluates two macroevolutionary hypotheses proposed to explain why cathemerality is less common than diurnality and nocturnality: 1) that cathemeral lineages have higher extinction probabilities (differential diversification) and 2) that transitions out of cathemerality are more frequent, making it a less persistent state (differential state persistence). Rates of speciation, extinction, and transition between character states were estimated using hidden-rates models applied to a phylogenetic tree containing 3013 mammals classified by activity pattern. The models failed to detect consistent differences in diversification dynamics among activity patterns, but there is strong support for differential state persistence. Transition rates out of cathemerality tend to be much higher than transition rates out of nocturnality. Transition rates out of diurnality are similar to those for cathemerality in most clades, with two important exceptions: diurnality is unusually persistent in anthropoid primates and sciurid rodents. These two groups combine very low rates of transition out of diurnality with high speciation rates. This combination has no parallels among cathemeral lineages, explaining why diurnality has become more common than cathemerality in mammals. Similarly, the combination of rates found in anthropoids is sufficient to explain the low relative frequency of cathemerality in primates, making it unnecessary to appeal to high extinction probabilities in cathemeral lineages in this clade. These findings support the hypothesis that the distribution of activity patterns across mammals has been influenced primarily by differential state persistence, whereas the effect of differential diversification appears to have been more idiosyncratic.

The Major Features of Macroevolution

Evolutionary dynamics operating across deep time leave footprints in the shapes of phylogenetic trees. For the last several decades, researchers have used increasingly large and robust phylogenies to study the evolutionary history of individual clades and to investigate the causes of the glaring disparities in diversity among groups. Whereas typically not the focal point of individual clade-level studies, many researchers have remarked on recurrent patterns that have been observed across many different groups and at many different time scales. Whereas previous studies have documented various such regularities in topology and branch length distributions, they have typically focused on a single pattern and used a disparate collection (oftentimes, of quite variable reliability) of trees to assess it. Here we take advantage of modern megaphylogenies and unify previous disparate observations about the shapes embedded in the Tree of Life to create a catalog of the "major features of macroevolution." By characterizing such a large swath of subtrees in a consistent way, we hope to provide a set of phenomena that process-based macroevolutionary models of diversification ought to seek to explain.

Numbers of fish species, higher taxa, and phylogenetic similarity decrease with latitude and depth, and deep-sea assemblages are unique

Species richness has been found to increase from the poles to the tropics but with a small dip near the equator over all marine fishes. Phylogenetic diversity measures offer an alternative perspective on biodiversity linked to evolutionary history. If phylogenetic diversity is standardized for species richness, then it may indicate places with relatively high genetic diversity. Latitudes and depths with both high species and phylogenetic diversity would be a priority for conservation. We compared latitudinal and depth gradients of species richness, and three measures of phylogenetic diversity, namely average phylogenetic diversity (AvPD), the sum of the higher taxonomic levels (STL) and the sum of the higher taxonomic levels divided by the number of species (STL/spp) for modelled ranges of 5,619 marine fish species. We distinguished all, bony and cartilaginous fish groups and four depth zones namely: whole water column; 0 -200 m; 201-1,000 m; and 1,001-6,000 m; at 5°  latitudinal intervals from 75°S to 75°N, and at 100 m depth intervals from 0 m to 3,500 m. Species richness and higher taxonomic richness (STL) were higher in the tropics and subtropics with a small dip at the equator, and were significantly correlated among fish groups and depth zones. Species assemblages had closer phylogenetic relationships (lower AvPD and STL/spp) in warmer (low latitudes and shallow water) than colder environments (high latitudes and deep sea). This supports the hypothesis that warmer shallow latitudes and depths have had higher rates of evolution across a range of higher taxa. We also found distinct assemblages of species in different depth zones such that deeper sea species are not simply a subset of shallow assemblages. Thus, conservation needs to be representative of all latitudes and depth zones to encompass global biodiversity.

No phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary

The Cretaceous-Palaeogene mass extinction event (K-Pg) witnessed upwards of 75% of animal species going extinct, most notably among these are the non-avian dinosaurs. A major question in macroevolution is whether this extinction event influenced the rise of flowering plants (angiosperms). The fossil record suggests that the K-Pg event had a strong regional impact on angiosperms with up to 75% species extinctions, but only had a minor impact on the extinction rates of major lineages (families and orders). Phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm extinction dynamics through time remains unexplored. By analysing two angiosperm mega-phylogenies containing approximately 32 000-73 000 extant species, here we show relatively constant extinction rates throughout geological time and no evidence for a mass extinction at the K-Pg boundary. Despite high species-level extinction observed in the fossil record, our results support the macroevolutionary resilience of angiosperms to the K-Pg mass extinction event via survival of higher lineages.

Their fates intertwined: diversification patterns of the Asian gliding vertebrates may have been forged by dipterocarp trees

The repeated evolution of gliding in diverse Asian vertebrate lineages is hypothesized to have been triggered by the dominance of tall dipterocarp trees in the tropical forests of Southeast Asia. These dipterocarp forests have acted as both centres of diversification and climatic refugia for gliding vertebrates, and support most of their extant diversity. We predict similarities in the diversification patterns of dipterocarp trees and gliding vertebrates, and specifically test whether episodic diversification events such as rate shifts and/or mass extinctions were temporally congruent in these groups. We analysed diversification patterns in reconstructed timetrees of Asian dipterocarps, the most speciose gliding vertebrates from different classes (Draco lizards, gliding frogs and Pteromyini squirrels) and compared them with similar-sized clades of non-gliding relatives (Diploderma lizards, Philautus frogs and Callosciurinae squirrels) from Southeast Asia. We found significant declines in net-diversification rates of dipterocarps and the gliding vertebrates during the Pliocene-Pleistocene, but not in the non-gliding groups. We conclude that the homogeneity and temporal coincidence of these rate declines point to a viable ecological correlation between dipterocarps and the gliding vertebrates. Further, we suggest that while the diversification decay in dipterocarps was precipitated by post-Miocene aridification of Asia, the crises in the gliding vertebrates were induced by both events concomitantly.

The diversification of Caribbean Buxus in time and space: elevated speciation rates in lineages that accumulate nickel and spreading to other islands from Cuba in non-obligate ultramafic species

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The genus Buxus has high levels of endemism in the Caribbean flora, with ~50 taxa. In Cuba, 82 % grow on ultramafic substrates and 59 % are nickel (Ni) accumulators or Ni hyperaccumulators. Hence it is an ideal model group to study if this diversification could be related to adaptation to ultramafic substrates and to Ni hyperaccumulation.

METHODS

We generated a well-resolved molecular phylogeny, including nearly all of the Neotropical and Caribbean Buxus taxa. To obtain robust divergence times we tested for the effects of different calibration scenarios, and we reconstructed ancestral areas and ancestral character states. Phylogenetic trees were examined for trait-independent shifts in diversification rates and we used multi-state models to test for state-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Storms could have contributed to Cuba acting as a species pump and to Buxus reaching other Caribbean islands and northern South America'.

KEY RESULTS

We found a Caribbean Buxus clade with Mexican ancestors, encompassing three major subclades, which started to radiate during the middle Miocene (13.25 Mya). Other Caribbean islands and northern South America were reached from ~3 Mya onwards.

CONCLUSIONS

An evolutionary scenario is evident in which Buxus plants able to grow on ultramafic substrates by exaptation became ultramafic substrate endemics and evolved stepwise from Ni tolerance through Ni accumulation to Ni hyperaccumulation, which has triggered species diversification of Buxus in Cuba. Storms could have contributed to Cuba acting as a species pump and to Buxus reaching other Caribbean islands and northern South America'.

A timescale for placental mammal diversification based on Bayesian modeling of the fossil record

The timing of the placental mammal radiation has been the focus of debate over the efficacy of competing methods for establishing evolutionary timescales. Molecular clock analyses estimate that placental mammals originated before the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction, anywhere from the Late Cretaceous to the Jurassic. However, the absence of definitive fossils of placentals before the K-Pg boundary is compatible with a post-Cretaceous origin. Nevertheless, lineage divergence must occur before it can be manifest phenotypically in descendent lineages. This, combined with the non-uniformity of the rock and fossil records, requires the fossil record to be interpreted rather than read literally. To achieve this, we introduce an extended Bayesian Brownian bridge model that estimates the age of origination and, where applicable, extinction through a probabilistic interpretation of the fossil record. The model estimates the origination of placentals in the Late Cretaceous, with ordinal crown groups originating at or after the K-Pg boundary. The results reduce the plausible interval for placental mammal origination to the younger range of molecular clock estimates. Our findings support both the Long Fuse and Soft Explosive models of placental mammal diversification, indicating that the placentals originated shortly prior to the K-Pg mass extinction. The origination of many modern mammal lineages overlapped with and followed the K-Pg mass extinction.

Patterns and drivers of heat production in the plant genus Amorphophallus

Thermogenesis - the ability to generate metabolic heat - is much more common in animals than in plants, but it has been documented in several plant families, most prominently the Araceae. Metabolic heat is produced in floral organs during the flowering time (anthesis), with the hypothesised primary functions being to increase scent volatilisation for pollinator attraction, and/or to provide a heat reward for invertebrate pollinators. Despite in-depth studies on the thermogenesis of single species, no attempts have yet been made to examine plant thermogenesis across an entire clade. Here, we apply time-series clustering algorithms to 119 measurements of the full thermogenic patterns in inflorescences of 80 Amorphophallus species. We infer a new time-calibrated phylogeny of this genus and use phylogenetic comparative methods to investigate the evolutionary determinants of thermogenesis. We find striking phenotypic variation across the phylogeny, with heat production in multiple clades reaching up to 15°C, and in one case 21.7°C above ambient temperature. Our results show that the thermogenic capacity is phylogenetically conserved and is also associated with inflorescence thickness. Our study paves the way for further investigations of the eco-evolutionary benefits of thermogenesis in plants.

Speciation rates are unrelated to the formation of population structure in Malagasy gemsnakes

Speciation rates vary substantially across the tree of life. These rates should be linked to the rate at which population structure forms if a continuum between micro and macroevolutionary patterns exists. Previous studies examining the link between speciation rates and the degree of population formation in clades have been shown to be either correlated or uncorrelated depending on the group, but no study has yet examined the relationship between speciation rates and population structure in a young group that is constrained spatially to a single-island system. We examine this correlation in 109 gemsnakes (Pseudoxyrhophiidae) endemic to Madagascar and originating in the early Miocene, which helps control for extinction variation across time and space. We find no relationship between rates of speciation and the formation rates of population structure over space in 33 species of gemsnakes. Rates of speciation show low variation, yet population structure varies widely across species, indicating that speciation rates and population structure are disconnected. We suspect this is largely due to the persistence of some lineages not susceptible to extinction. Importantly, we discuss how delimiting populations versus species may contribute to problems understanding the continuum between shallow and deep evolutionary processes.

Trait-based species richness: ecology and macroevolution

Understanding the origins of species richness patterns is a fundamental goal in ecology and evolutionary biology. Much research has focused on explaining two kinds of species richness patterns: (i) spatial species richness patterns (e.g. the latitudinal diversity gradient), and (ii) clade-based species richness patterns (e.g. the predominance of angiosperm species among plants). Here, I highlight a third kind of richness pattern: trait-based species richness (e.g. the number of species with each state of a character, such as diet or body size). Trait-based richness patterns are relevant to many topics in ecology and evolution, from ecosystem function to adaptive radiation to the paradox of sex. Although many studies have described particular trait-based richness patterns, the origins of these patterns remain far less understood, and trait-based richness has not been emphasised as a general category of richness patterns. Here, I describe a conceptual framework for how trait-based richness patterns arise compared to other richness patterns. A systematic review suggests that trait-based richness patterns are most often explained by when each state originates within a group (i.e. older states generally have higher richness), and not by differences in transition rates among states or faster diversification of species with certain states. This latter result contrasts with the widespread emphasis on diversification rates in species-richness research. I show that many recent studies of spatial richness patterns are actually studies of trait-based richness patterns, potentially confounding the causes of these patterns. Finally, I describe a plethora of unanswered questions related to trait-based richness patterns.

Clade density and the evolution of diversity-dependent diversification

The assumption of an ecological limit to the number of species in a given region is frequently invoked in evolutionary studies, yet its empirical basis is remarkably meager. We explore this assumption by integrating data on geographical distributions and phylogenetic relationships of nearly six thousand terrestrial vertebrate species. In particular, we test whether sympatry with closely-related species leads to decreasing speciation rates. We introduce the concept of clade density, which is the sum of the areas of overlap between a given species and other members of its higher taxon, weighted by their phylogenetic distance. Our results showed that, regardless of the chosen taxon and uncertainty in the phylogenetic relationships between the studied species, there is no significant relationship between clade density and speciation rate. We argue that the mechanistic foundation of diversity-dependent diversification is fragile, and that a better understanding of the mechanisms driving regional species pools is sorely needed.