Viral Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Persons

A mechanistic modeling and estimation framework for environmental pathogen surveillance

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a promising disease surveillance modality that has been widely adopted for SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. The highly variable nature of environmental pathogen data is a challenge for integrating these data into public health response. One source of this variability is heterogeneous infection both within an individual over the course of infection as well as between individuals in their pathogen shedding over time. We present a mechanistic modeling and estimation framework for connecting environmental pathogen data to the number of infected individuals. Infected individuals are modeled as shedding pathogen into the environment via a Poisson process whose rate parameter λt varies over the course of their infection. These shedding curves λt are themselves random, allowing for variation between individuals. We show that this results in a Poisson process for environmental pathogen levels with rate parameter a function of the number of infected individuals, total shedding over the course of infection, and pathogen removal from the environment. Theoretical results include determination of identifiable parameters for the model from environmental pathogen data and simple, explicit formulas for the likelihood for particular choices of individual shedding curves. We give a two step Bayesian inference framework, where the first step corresponds to calibration from data where the number of infected individuals is known, followed by an estimation step from environmental surveillance data when the number of infected individuals is unknown. We apply this modeling and estimation framework to synthetic data, as well as to an empirical case study of SARS-CoV-2 in environmental dust collected from isolation rooms housing university students. Both the synthetic data and empirical case study indicate high inter-individual variation in shedding, leading to wide credible intervals for the number of infected individuals. We examine how uncertainty in estimates of the number of infected individuals from environmental pathogen levels scales with the true number of infected individuals and model misspecification. While credible intervals for the number of infected individuals are wide, our results suggest that distinguishing between no infection and small-to-moderate levels of infection (≈10 infected individuals) may be possible, and that it is broadly possible to differentiate between moderate (≈40) and high (≈200) numbers of infected individuals.

Humoral and cellular immune responses in vaccinated and unvaccinated children following SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection

Objectives

The immune response in children elicited by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection alone or in combination with COVID-19 vaccination (hybrid immunity) is poorly understood. We examined the humoral and cellular immune response following SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in unvaccinated children and children who were previously vaccinated with COVID-19 mRNA vaccine.

Methods

Participants were recruited as part of a household cohort study conducted during the Omicron predominant wave (Jan to July 2022) in Victoria, Australia. Blood samples were collected at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months following COVID-19 diagnosis. Humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 Spike proteins from Wuhan, Omicron BA.1, BA.4/5 and JN.1, as well as cellular immune responses to Wuhan and BA.1 were assessed.

Results

A total of 43 children and 113 samples were included in the analysis. Following Omicron infection, unvaccinated children generated low antibody responses but elicited Spike-specific CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses. In contrast, vaccinated children infected with the Omicron variant mounted robust humoral and cellular immune responses to both ancestral strain and Omicron subvariants. Hybrid immunity persisted for at least 6 months post infection, with cellular immune memory characterised by the generation of Spike-specific polyfunctional CD8 T-cell responses.

Conclusion

SARS-CoV-2 hybrid immunity in children is characterised by persisting SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and robust CD4 and CD8 T-cell activation and polyfunctional responses. Our findings contribute to understanding hybrid immunity in children and may have implications regarding COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 re-infections.

Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance

Vaccination is the most effective tool to control infectious diseases. However, the evolution of vaccine resistance, exemplified by vaccine resistance in SARS-CoV-2, remains a concern. Here, we model complex vaccination strategies against a pathogen with multiple epitopes-molecules targeted by the vaccine. We found that a vaccine targeting one epitope was ineffective in preventing vaccine escape. Vaccine resistance in highly infectious pathogens was prevented by the full-epitope vaccine, that is, one targeting all available epitopes, but only when the rate of pathogen evolution was low. Strikingly, a bet-hedging strategy of random administration of vaccines targeting different epitopes was the most effective in preventing vaccine resistance in pathogens with the low rate of infection and high rate of evolution. Thus, complex vaccination strategies, when biologically feasible, may be preferable to the currently used single-vaccine approaches for long-term control of disease outbreaks, especially when applied to livestock with near 100% vaccination rates.

Modeling suggests SARS-CoV-2 rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment is driven by target cell preservation coupled with incomplete viral clearance

In a subset of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals treated with the oral antiviral nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, the virus rebounds following treatment. The mechanisms driving this rebound are not well understood. We used a mathematical model to describe the longitudinal viral load dynamics of 51 individuals treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, 20 of whom rebounded. Target cell preservation, either by a robust innate immune response or initiation of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir near the time of symptom onset, coupled with incomplete viral clearance, appear to be the main factors leading to viral rebound. Moreover, the occurrence of viral rebound is likely influenced by time of treatment initiation relative to the progression of the infection, with earlier treatments leading to a higher chance of rebound. Finally, our model demonstrates that extending the course of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment, in particular to a 10-day regimen, may greatly diminish the risk for rebound in people with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 and who are at high risk of progression to severe disease. Altogether, our results suggest that in some individuals, a standard 5-day course of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir starting around the time of symptom onset may not completely eliminate the virus. Thus, after treatment ends, the virus can rebound if an effective adaptive immune response has not fully developed. These findings on the role of target cell preservation and incomplete viral clearance also offer a possible explanation for viral rebounds following other antiviral treatments for SARS-CoV-2.

Genome-wide association study between SARS-CoV-2 single nucleotide polymorphisms and virus copies during infections

Significant variations have been observed in viral copies generated during SARS-CoV-2 infections. However, the factors that impact viral copies and infection dynamics are not fully understood, and may be inherently dependent upon different viral and host factors. Here, we conducted virus whole genome sequencing and measured viral copies using RT-qPCR from 9,902 SARS-CoV-2 infections over a 2-year period to examine the impact of virus genetic variation on changes in viral copies adjusted for host age and vaccination status. Using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach, we identified multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) corresponding to amino acid changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome associated with variations in viral copies. We further applied a marginal epistasis test to detect interactions among SNPs and identified multiple pairs of substitutions located in the spike gene that have non-linear effects on viral copies. We also analyzed the temporal patterns and found that SNPs associated with increased viral copies were predominantly observed in Delta and Omicron BA.2/BA.4/BA.5/XBB infections, whereas those associated with decreased viral copies were only observed in infections with Omicron BA.1 variants. Our work showcases how GWAS can be a useful tool for probing phenotypes related to SNPs in viral genomes that are worth further exploration. We argue that this approach can be used more broadly across pathogens to characterize emerging variants and monitor therapeutic interventions.

Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats

In this review, we assess the status of computational modelling of pathogens. We focus on three disparate but interlinked research areas that produce models with very different spatial and temporal scope. First, we examine antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Many mechanisms of AMR are not well understood. As a result, it is hard to measure the current incidence of AMR, predict the future incidence, and design strategies to preserve existing antibiotic effectiveness. Next, we look at how to choose the finite number of bacterial strains that can be included in a vaccine. To do this, we need to understand what happens to vaccine and non-vaccine strains after vaccination programmes. Finally, we look at within-host modelling of antibody dynamics. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic produced huge amounts of antibody data, prompting improvements in this area of modelling. We finish by discussing the challenges that persist in understanding these complex biological systems.

An intranasal nanoparticle STING agonist protects against respiratory viruses in animal models

Respiratory viral infections cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite the success of vaccines, vaccination efficacy is weakened by the rapid emergence of viral variants with immunoevasive properties. The development of an off-the-shelf, effective, and safe therapy against respiratory viral infections is thus desirable. Here, we develop NanoSTING, a nanoparticle formulation of the endogenous STING agonist, 2'-3' cGAMP, to function as an immune activator and demonstrate its safety in mice and rats. A single intranasal dose of NanoSTING protects against pathogenic strains of SARS-CoV-2 (alpha and delta VOC) in hamsters. In transmission experiments, NanoSTING reduces the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC to naïve hamsters. NanoSTING also protects against oseltamivir-sensitive and oseltamivir-resistant strains of influenza in mice. Mechanistically, NanoSTING upregulates locoregional interferon-dependent and interferon-independent pathways in mice, hamsters, as well as non-human primates. Our results thus implicate NanoSTING as a broad-spectrum immune activator for controlling respiratory virus infection.

Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform evidence-based public health guidance and policies. Here, we discuss requirements for an effective surveillance system to support decision making during a pandemic, drawing on the lessons of COVID-19 in the U.S., while looking to jurisdictions in the U.S. and beyond to learn lessons about the value of specific data types. In this report, we define the range of decisions for which surveillance data are required, the data elements needed to inform these decisions and to calibrate inputs and outputs of transmission-dynamic models, and the types of data needed to inform decisions by state, territorial, local, and tribal health authorities. We define actions needed to ensure that such data will be available and consider the contribution of such efforts to improving health equity.

Viral Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Pediatric Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the viral dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in children. Understanding viral load changes over the course of illness and duration of viral shedding may provide insight into transmission dynamics to inform public health and infection-control decisions.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of children aged 18 years and younger with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 between 1 February 2022 and 14 March 2022. SARS-CoV-2 testing occurred on daily samples for 10 days; a subset of participants completed daily rapid antigen tests (RATs). Viral RNA trajectories were described in relation to symptom onset and resolution. The associations between both time since symptom onset/resolution and non-infectious viral load were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Among 101 children aged 2 to 17 years, the median time to study-defined non-infectious viral load was 5 days post-symptom onset, with 75% meeting this threshold by 7 days and 90% by 10 days. On the day of and day after symptom resolution, 43 (49%) and 52 (60%) of 87 had met the non-infectious thresholds, respectively. Of the 50 participants completing a RAT, positivity at symptom onset and on the day after symptom onset was 67% (16/24) and 75% (14/20). On the first day where the non-infectious threshold was met, 61% (n = 27/44) of participant RAT results were positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Children often met the study-defined non-infectiousness threshold on the day after symptom resolution. The RATs were often negative early in the course of illness and should not be relied on to exclude infection. Clinical Trials Registration. clinicaltrials.org; NCT05240183.

Time to SARS-CoV-2 clearance in African, Caucasian, and Asian ethnic groups

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 may become a seasonal disease. SARS-CoV-2 active circulation coupled with vaccination efforts has undoubtedly modified the virus dynamic. It is therefore important investigate SARS-CoV-2 dynamic in different groups of population following the course of spatiotemporal variance and immunization.

METHODS

To investigate SARS-CoV-2 clearance in different ethnic groups and the impact of immunization, we recruited 777 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients (570 Africans, 156 Caucasians, and 51 Asians). Participants were followed and regularly tested for 2 months until they had two negative tests.

RESULTS

The vaccination rate was 64.6%. African individuals were less symptomatic (2%), Caucasians (41%) and Asians (36.6%). On average, viral clearance occurred after 10.5 days. Viral load at diagnosis was inversely correlated with viral clearance (p < 0.0001). The time of SARS-CoV-2 clearance was higher in Africans and Caucasians than in Asians (Dunn's test p < 0.0001 and p < 0.05, respectively). On average, viral clearance occurred within 9.5 days during the second semester (higher rate of vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 exposition), whereas it took 13.6 days during the first semester (lower rate of vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 exposition) (Mann-Whitney t-test p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, ethnicity and spatiotemporal changes including SARS-CoV-2 exposition and immunization affect SARS-CoV-2 clearance.

Differential Viral Dynamics by Sex and Body Mass Index During Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results From a Longitudinal Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There is evidence of an association of severe coroanavirus disease (COVID-19) outcomes with increased body mass index (BMI) and male sex. However, few studies have examined the interaction between sex and BMI on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral dynamics.

METHODS

Participants conducted RT-PCR testing every 24-48 hours over a 15-day period. Sex and BMI were self-reported, and Ct values from E-gene were used to quantify viral load. Three distinct outcomes were examined using mixed-effects generalized linear models, linear models, and logistic models, respectively: all Ct values (model 1), nadir Ct value (model 2), and strongly detectable infection (at least 1 Ct value ≤28 during their infection) (model 3). An interaction term between BMI and sex was included, and inverse logit transformations were applied to quantify the differences by BMI and sex using marginal predictions.

RESULTS

In total, 7988 participants enrolled in this study and 439 participants (model 1) and 309 (models 2 and 3) were eligible for these analyses. Among males, increasing BMI was associated with lower Ct values in a dose-response fashion. For participants with BMIs greater than 29 kg/m2, males had significantly lower Ct values and nadir Ct values than females. In total, 67.8% of males and 55.3% of females recorded a strongly detectable infection; increasing proportions of men had Ct values <28 with BMIs of 35 and 40 kg/m2.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed sex-based dimorphism in relation to BMI and COVID-19 viral load. Further investigation is needed to determine the cause, clinical impact, and transmission implications of this sex-differential effect of BMI on viral load.

Characterizing Infections in Two Epidemic Waves of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants: A Cohort Study in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

After the adjustment of COVID-19 epidemic policy, mainland China experienced two consecutive waves of Omicron variants within a seven-month period. In Guangzhou city, as one of the most populous regions, the viral infection characteristics, molecular epidemiology, and the dynamic of population immunity are still elusive.

METHODS

We launched a prospective cohort study in the Guangdong Provincial CDC from December 2022 to July 2023. Fifty participants who received the same vaccination regimen and had no previous infection were recruited.

RESULTS

90% of individuals were infected with Omicron BA.5* variants within three weeks in the first wave. Thirteen cases (28.26%) experienced infection with XBB.1* variants, occurring from 14 weeks to 21 weeks after the first wave. BA.5* infections exhibited higher viral loads in nasopharyngeal sites compared to oropharyngeal sites. Compared to BA.5* infections, the XBB.1* infections had significantly milder clinical symptoms, lower viral loads, and shorter durations of virus positivity. The infection with the BA.5* variant elicited varying levels of neutralizing antibodies against XBB.1* among different individuals, even with similar levels of BA.5* antibodies. The level of neutralizing antibodies specific to XBB.1* determined the risk of reinfection.

CONCLUSIONS

The rapid large-scale infections of the Omicron variants have quickly established herd immunity among the population in mainland China. In the future of the COVID-19 epidemic, a lower infection rate but a longer duration can be expected. Given the large population size and ongoing diversified herd immunity, it remains crucial to closely monitor the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 for the emergence of new variants of concern in this region. Additionally, the timely evaluation of the immune status across different age groups is essential for informing future vaccination strategies and intervention policies.

A joint Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating SARS-CoV-2 genomic and subgenomic RNA viral dynamics and seroconversion

Understanding the viral dynamics of and natural immunity to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is crucial for devising better therapeutic and prevention strategies for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model that jointly estimates the genomic RNA viral load, the subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) viral load (correlated to active viral replication), and the rate and timing of seroconversion (correlated to presence of antibodies). Our proposed method accounts for the dynamical relationship and correlation structure between the two types of viral load, allows for borrowing of information between viral load and antibody data, and identifies potential correlates of viral load characteristics and propensity for seroconversion. We demonstrate the features of the joint model through application to the COVID-19 post-exposure prophylaxis study and conduct a cross-validation exercise to illustrate the model's ability to impute the sgRNA viral trajectories for people who only had genomic RNA viral load data.

Mucosal Vaccination with a Newcastle Disease Virus-Vectored Vaccine Reduces Viral Loads in SARS-CoV-2-Infected Cynomolgus Macaques

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged following an outbreak of unexplained viral illness in China in late 2019. Since then, it has spread globally causing a pandemic that has resulted in millions of deaths and has had enormous economic and social consequences. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 saw the rapid and widespread development of a number of vaccine candidates worldwide, and this never-before-seen pace of vaccine development led to several candidates progressing immediately through clinical trials. Many countries have now approved vaccines for emergency use, with large-scale vaccination programs ongoing. Despite these successes, there remains a need for ongoing pre-clinical and clinical development of vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2, as well as vaccines that can elicit strong mucosal immune responses. Here, we report on the efficacy of a Newcastle disease virus-vectored vaccine candidate expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (NDV-FLS) administered to cynomolgus macaques. Macaques given two doses of the vaccine via respiratory immunization developed robust immune responses and had reduced viral RNA levels in nasal swabs and in the lower airway. Our data indicate that NDV-FLS administered mucosally provides significant protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, resulting in reduced viral burden and disease manifestation, and should be considered as a viable candidate for clinical development.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of interindividual variability. We identified 6 distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate, and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1,510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection as well as by an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during Omicron infection, following vaccination, and following reinfection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

Self- and informant-reported personality traits and vaccination against COVID-19

As COVID-19 vaccines' accessibility has grown, so has the role of personal choice in vaccination, and not everybody is willing to vaccinate. Exploring personality traits' associations with vaccination could highlight some person-level drivers of, and barriers to, vaccination. We used self- and informant-ratings of the Five-Factor Model domains and their subtraits (a) measured approximately at the time of vaccination with the 100 Nuances of Personality (100NP) item pool (N = 56,575) and (b) measured on average ten years before the pandemic with the NEO Personality Inventory-3 (NEO-PI-3; N = 3,168). We tested individual domains' and either items' (in the 100NP sample) or facets' (in the NEO-PI-3 sample) associations with vaccination, as well as their collective ability to predict vaccination using elastic net models trained and tested in independent sample partitions. Although the NEO-PI-3 domains and facets did not predict vaccination ten years later, the domains correlated with vaccination in the 100NP sample, with vaccinated people scoring slightly higher on neuroticism and agreeableness and lower on openness, controlling for age, sex, and education. Collectively, the five domains predicted vaccination with an accuracy of r = .08. Associations were stronger at the item level. Vaccinated people were, on average, more science-minded, politically liberal, respectful of rules and authority, and anxious but less spiritual, religious, and self-assured. The 100NP items collectively predicted vaccination with r = .31 accuracy. We conclude that unvaccinated people may be a psychologically heterogeneous group and highlight some potential areas for action in vaccination campaigns.

Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series

The time-varying reproduction number R(t) measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely known, and analysis of epidemics usually relies on time series data for other outcomes such as symptom onset. A common implicit assumption, when estimating R(t) from an epidemic time series, is that R(t) has the same relationship with these downstream outcomes as it does with the time series of incidence. However, this assumption is unlikely to be valid given that most epidemic time series are not perfect proxies of incidence. Rather they represent convolutions of incidence with uncertain delay distributions. Here we define the apparent time-varying reproduction number, RA(t), the reproduction number calculated from a downstream epidemic time series and demonstrate how differences between RA(t) and R(t) depend on the convolution function. The mean of the convolution function sets a time offset between the two signals, whilst the variance of the convolution function introduces a relative distortion between them. We present the convolution functions of epidemic time series that were available during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Infection prevalence, measured by random sampling studies, presents fewer biases than other epidemic time series. Here we show that additionally the mean and variance of its convolution function were similar to that obtained from traditional surveillance based on mass-testing and could be reduced using more frequent testing, or by using stricter thresholds for positivity. Infection prevalence studies continue to be a versatile tool for tracking the temporal trends of R(t), and with additional refinements to their study protocol, will be of even greater utility during any future epidemics or pandemics.

Host and viral determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Syrian hamster

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne virus (24-48 hr), shorter than compared to oropharyngeal swabs. The loss of airborne shedding was linked to airway constriction resulting in a decrease of fine aerosols (1-10 µm) produced, which are suspected to be the major driver of airborne transmission. Male sex was associated with increased viral replication and virus shedding in the air. Next, we compared the transmission efficiency of both variants and found no significant differences. Transmission efficiency varied mostly among donors, 0-100% (including a superspreading event), and aerosol transmission over multiple chain links was representative of natural heterogeneity of exposure dose and downstream viral kinetics. Co-infection with VOCs only occurred when both viruses were shed by the same donor during an increased exposure timeframe (24-48 hr). This highlights that assessment of host and virus factors resulting in a differential exhaled particle profile is critical for understanding airborne transmission.

Infection-mediated immune response in SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection and implications for next-generation COVID-19 vaccine development

Post-vaccination infections, termed breakthrough infections, occur after the virus infection overcomes the vaccine-induced immune barrier. During the early stages of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron wave, high serum-neutralizing antibody titers against the Omicron variant were detected in individuals with breakthrough infections as well as those who received a third vaccine dose (i.e., booster recipients). Additionally, these cases indicated that Omicron antigens triggered an immune response that differed from that triggered by the vaccine strain before analysis of the effectiveness of new vaccines updated for the Omicron variants. Moreover, the magnitude and breadth of neutralizing antibody titers induced by breakthrough infections are correlated with the upper respiratory viral load at diagnosis and the duration between vaccination and infection, respectively. Unlike booster vaccine recipients, patients with breakthrough infections have varying durations between vaccination and infection. Accordingly, optimal booster vaccination intervals may be estimated based on the cross-neutralizing antibody response induced over time. Examination of breakthrough infection cases has provided valuable insights that could not be yielded by only examining vaccinated individuals alone. These insights include estimates of vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants and the various factors related to the clinical status. This review describes the immune response elicited by breakthrough infections; specifically, it discusses factors that affect the magnitude and breadth of serum antibody titers as well as the appropriate booster vaccination strategy. This review provides key aspects that could contribute to developing next-generation COVID-19 vaccines through breakthrough infection cases.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of inter-individual variability. We identified six distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection, as well as an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during omicron infection, following vaccination, and following re-infection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks1-5, give rise to highly divergent lineages6-8 and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (long COVID)9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Here, using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as 'persistent infections' as available evidence suggests that they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Individuals with persistent infection had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting long COVID than individuals with non-persistent infection. We estimate that 0.1-0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, whereas others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies and/or are commonly found in immunocompromised people11-14. This work has profound implications for understanding and characterizing SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology and evolution.

Clinical and immunological benefits of full primary COVID-19 vaccination in individuals with SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections: A prospective cohort study in non-hospitalized adults

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) may result in breakthrough infections (BTIs) in vaccinated individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of full primary (two-dose) COVID-19 vaccination with wild-type-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on symptoms and immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 VOC BTIs.

METHODS

In a longitudinal multicenter controlled cohort study in Bavaria, Germany, COVID-19 vaccinated and unvaccinated non-hospitalized individuals were prospectively enrolled within 14 days of a PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals were visited weekly up to 4 times, performing a structured record of medical data and viral load assessment. SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody response was characterized by anti-spike-(S)- and anti-nucleocapsid-(N)-antibody concentrations, anti-S-IgG avidity and neutralization capacity.

RESULTS

A total of 300 individuals (212 BTIs, 88 non-BTIs) were included with VOC Alpha or Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections. Full primary COVID-19 vaccination provided a significant effectiveness against five symptoms (relative risk reduction): fever (33 %), cough (21 %), dysgeusia (22 %), dizziness (52 %) and nausea/vomiting (48 %). Full primary vaccinated individuals showed significantly higher 50 % inhibitory concentration (IC50) values against the infecting VOC compared to unvaccinated individuals at week 1 (269 vs. 56, respectively), and weeks 5-7 (1,917 vs. 932, respectively) with significantly higher relative anti-S-IgG avidity (78% vs. 27 % at week 4, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Full primary COVID-19 vaccination reduced symptom frequencies in non-hospitalized individuals with BTIs and elicited a more rapid and longer lasting neutralization capacity against the infecting VOC compared to unvaccinated individuals. These results support the recommendation to offer at least full primary vaccination to all adults to reduce disease severity caused by immune escape-variants.

More to Offer Than Direct Clinical Benefit: FDA's Vaccine Licensure Process Ignores Population Health and Social Determinants of Disease

The current US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensure process underestimates the potential benefits of vaccines at both the individual and population levels by considering only direct clinical outcomes of vaccination. While all approved vaccines do protect the person who takes them from poor clinical outcomes for a specific infectious disease, many vaccines also have the potential to offer measurable, direct nonclinical benefits. For example, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinations for school-aged children may prevent school absenteeism. Also, by preventing infection or reducing its length and severity, some vaccines also protect-to some extent-the patient's immediate contacts from contracting the same disease. These nonclinical and population-level benefits are not considered as part of the FDA's current vaccine approval process, but they could be. We argue that the FDA's structured benefit-risk assessment framework, used for vaccine approvals, can and should consider both clinical and nonclinical benefits of vaccination when sufficient evidence exists to make an informed assessment. Including them could incentivize vaccine developers to measure additional vaccination effects, inform population health, and address health inequalities-including inequalities in the social determinants of health.

Reconstructing the COVID-19 incidence in India using airport screening data in Japan

BACKGROUND

A major epidemic of COVID-19 caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) occurred in India from March to July 2021, resulting in 19 million documented cases. Given the limited healthcare and testing capacities, the actual number of infections is likely to have been greater than reported, and several modelling studies and excess mortality research indicate that this epidemic involved substantial morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

To estimate the incidence during this epidemic, we used border entry screening data in Japan to estimate the daily incidence and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 infection in India. Analysing the results of mandatory testing among non-Japanese passengers entering Japan from India, we calculated the prevalence and then backcalculated the incidence in India from February 28 to July 3, 2021.

RESULTS

The estimated number of infections ranged from 448 to 576 million people, indicating that 31.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26.1, 37.7) - 40.9% (95% CI: 33.5, 48.4) of the population in India had experienced COVID-19 infection from February 28 to July 3, 2021. In addition to obtaining cumulative incidence that was consistent with published estimates, we showed that the actual incidence of COVID-19 infection during the 2021 epidemic in India was approximately 30 times greater than that based on documented cases, giving a crude infection fatality risk of 0.47%. Adjusting for test-negative certificate before departure, the quality control of which was partly questionable, the cumulative incidence can potentially be up to 2.3-2.6 times greater than abovementioned estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimate of approximately 32-41% cumulative infection risk from February 28 to July 3, 2021 is roughly consistent with other published estimates, and they can potentially be greater, given an exit screening before departure. The present study results suggest the potential utility of border entry screening data to backcalculate the incidence in countries with limited surveillance capacity owing to a major surge in infections.

Does the COVID-19 Vaccination Reduce the Risk to Transmit SARS-CoV-2 to Others?

It has been assumed that the COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of transmission to others. Results during the delta predominance show that the viral load in the vaccinated population is not consistently lower compared to the unvaccinated, and during the omicron predominance, the viral load was even somewhat higher. Levels of infectious SARS-CoV-2 were partly lower in the vaccinated population. Viral loads were mostly lower in re-infections compared to breakthrough infections. Viral clearance including the detection of infectious virus has mostly been described to be faster in the vaccinated population suggesting a shorter duration as a possible source for transmission. The epidemiological relevance of this finding remains uncertain. Approximately half of the transmission studies found lower secondary attack rates from the fully vaccinated population, but the results are probably best explained by the vaccination status of the contact population. Public health data from the UK show that the number of COVID-19 cases is higher among the fully vaccinated and boosted population who might be possible sources, in contrast to lower case numbers within the first three months among the vaccinated obtained in phase 3 trials on symptomatic cases. Overall, there is no convincing evidence that the COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduces the risk to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others.

Evaluation of the analytical performance of the 15-minute point-of-care DASH™ SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR test

Accurate and timely diagnosis for COVID-19 diagnosis allows highly effective antiviral medications to be prescribed. The DASH™ Rapid PCR System is a sample-to-answer point-of-care platform combining state-of-the-art PCR kinetics with sequence specific hybridization. The platform's first assay, the DASH™ SARS-CoV-2/S test for anterior nares direct swab specimens, received FDA Emergency Use Authorization in March 2022 for point-of-care use. Here we report the analytical characteristics of the assay including limit of detection, dynamic range, and robustness of SARS-CoV-2 variant detection. The limit of detection was determined by testing swabs contrived with one hundred copies of wild type or Omicron BA.5 virus and detecting 20/20 and 19/20, respectively. The dynamic range was assessed with contrived swabs containing 102-106 copies; the log-linear relationship between Cq and copy input was plotted, and the qPCR efficiency calculated from the slope of the line was 101.4%. Detection of seven SARS-CoV-2 variants was demonstrated.

Combined analyses of within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and information on past exposures to the virus in a human cohort identifies intrinsic differences of Omicron and Delta variants

The emergence of successive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) during 2020 to 2022, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics-such as varying levels of immunity-can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) planning and response and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both interindividual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics-such as vaccination status, exposure history, and age-we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least 5 prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs. Trial Registration: The Legacy study is a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening for SARS-CoV-2 at University College London Hospitals or at the Francis Crick Institute (NCT04750356) (22,23). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469) and is sponsored by University College London Hospitals. Written consent was given by all participants.

The domestication of SARS-CoV-2 into a seasonal infection by viral variants

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic was caused by the zoonotic betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged due to adaptation in humans, shifting SARS-CoV-2 towards an endemic seasonal virus. We have termed this process 'virus domestication'.

Methods

We analyzed aggregate COVID-19 data from a publicly funded healthcare system in Canada from March 7, 2020 to November 21, 2022. We graphed surrogate calculations of COVID-19 disease severity and SARS-CoV-2 variant plaque sizes in tissue culture.

Results and Discussion

Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 adapt the virus to better infect humans and evade the host immune response, resulting in the emergence of variants with altered pathogenicity. We observed a decrease in COVID-19 disease severity surrogates after the arrival of the Delta variant, coinciding with significantly smaller plaque sizes. Overall, we suggest that SARS-CoV-2 has become more infectious and less virulent through viral domestication. Our findings highlight the importance of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and help inform public policy on the highest probability outcomes during viral pandemics.

Number of initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with the risk of otological symptoms: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The characteristics of otological symptoms in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are lacking. Almost no research has been conducted to explore the emergence of otological symptoms after coronavirus disease 2019 infection. The aims of this study were to investigate the prevalence and specific clinical characteristics of and risk factors for otological symptoms among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We included two groups to investigate the prevalence and clinical characteristics of otological symptoms among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The first sample (S1) was drawn retrospectively from four communities via questionnaires, and the second sample (S2) from an outpatient clinic.

RESULTS

A total of 189 participants were included in S1 (124 women [65.6%]; mean [standard deviation (SD)] age, 33.66 [13.56] years), and 47 in S2 (25 women [53.2%]; mean [SD] age, 45.28 [14.64] years). The most prevalent otological symptoms in S1 were dizziness (15.9%), tinnitus (7.9%), aural fullness (6.9%), otalgia (5.3%), hearing loss (1.6%), and otopyorrhoea (1.1%). Moreover, for each additional typical symptom of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the risk (odds ratio) of otological symptoms increased by 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.61, p = 0.003). The prevalence of aural fullness was higher in the unvaccinated group than that in the group receiving two or three vaccinations (p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

Various otological symptoms may occur in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The number of typical symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection is positively associated with the probability of otological symptoms. However, vaccination may reduce the probability of certain otological symptoms.

Diagnostic performance of rapid antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk based on cycle threshold values in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic performance of the rapid antigen test (RAT) for screening patients with cycle threshold (Ct) values of SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the emergency department. Previous studies have shown that Ct values could be used as indicators of infectiousness. Therefore, we considered the Ct value an indicator of potential infectiousness.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective observational study was conducted between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2022. Patients who underwent both RT-PCR and RAT for the diagnosis of COVID-19 were included. Patients with negative RT-PCR results were excluded. Patients with Ct values lower than 26 and 30 were considered potentially infectious for COVID-19.

RESULT

A total of 386 patients were analyzed. At Ct value cutoffs of 26 and 30, the result of the RAT showed a sensitivity of 82% and 74%, specificity of 84% and 89%, and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.829 and 0.813, respectively, in the receiver operating characteristic curve. However, the NPV was relatively low at 55% and 25%.

CONCLUSION

The RAT might be a rapid screening tool for detecting patients with the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2. However, considering the low NPV, it is challenging to depend only on a negative test result from an antigen test to terminate quarantine. Clinicians should consider additional factors, such as the duration of symptoms and the immunocompromised state, for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

The "Bubble": What Can Be Learned from the National Basketball Association (NBA)'s 2019-20 Season Restart in Orlando during the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

The National Basketball Association (NBA) suspended operations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. To safely complete the 2019-20 season, the NBA created a closed campus in Orlando, Florida, known as the NBA "Bubble." More than 5000 individuals lived, worked, and played basketball at a time of high local prevalence of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Stringent protocols governed campus life to protect NBA and support personnel from contracting COVID-19. Participants quarantined before departure and upon arrival. Medical and social protocols required that participants remain on campus, test regularly, physically distance, mask, use hand hygiene, and more. Cleaning, disinfection, and air filtration was enhanced. Campus residents were screened daily and confirmed cases of COVID-19 were investigated.

RESULTS

In the Bubble population, 148 043 COVID-19 reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) tests were performed across approximately 5000 individuals; Orlando had a 4% to 15% test positivity rate in this timeframe. There were 44 COVID-19 cases diagnosed either among persons during arrival quarantine or in non-team personnel while working on campus after testing but before receipt of a positive result. No cases of COVID-19 were identified among NBA players or NBA team staff living in the Bubble once cleared from quarantine.

CONCLUSIONS

Drivers of success included the requirement for players and team staff to reside and remain on campus, well-trained compliance monitors, unified communication, layers of protection between teams and the outside, activation of high-quality laboratory diagnostics, and available mental health services. An emphasis on data management, evidence-based decision-making, and the willingness to evolve protocols were instrumental to successful operations. These lessons hold broad applicability for future pandemic preparedness efforts.

Associations of SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold values with age, gender, sample collection setting, and pandemic period

Cycle threshold (Ct) values in COVID-19 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests estimate the viral load in biological samples. Studies have investigated variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral load, aiming to identify factors associated with higher transmissibility. Using the results from tests performed between May/2020-July/2022 obtained from the database of a referent hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil, we investigated associations between Ct values and patient's age, gender, sample collection setting and pandemic period according to the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant locally. We also examined variations in Ct values, COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and vaccination coverage over time. The study sample included 42,741 tests. Gender was not significantly associated with Ct values. Age, sample collection setting and the pandemic period were significantly associated with Ct values even after adjustment to the multivariable model. Results showed lower Ct values in older groups, during the Gamma and Delta periods, and in samples collected in emergency units; and higher Ct values in children under 10 years old, home-based tests, during the Omicron period. We found evidence of a linear trend in the association between age and Ct values, with Ct values decreasing as age increases. We found no clear temporal associations between Ct values and local indicators of COVID-19 incidence, mortality, or vaccination between February/2020-November/2022. Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 Ct values, a proxy for viral load and transmissibility, can be influenced by demographic and epidemiological variables.

Host and viral determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Syrian hamster

It remains poorly understood how SARS-CoV-2 infection influences the physiological host factors important for aerosol transmission. We assessed breathing pattern, exhaled droplets, and infectious virus after infection with Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOC) in the Syrian hamster. Both VOCs displayed a confined window of detectable airborne virus (24-48 h), shorter than compared to oropharyngeal swabs. The loss of airborne shedding was linked to airway constriction resulting in a decrease of fine aerosols (1-10μm) produced, which are suspected to be the major driver of airborne transmission. Male sex was associated with increased viral replication and virus shedding in the air. Next, we compared the transmission efficiency of both variants and found no significant differences. Transmission efficiency varied mostly among donors, 0-100% (including a superspreading event), and aerosol transmission over multiple chain links was representative of natural heterogeneity of exposure dose and downstream viral kinetics. Co-infection with VOCs only occurred when both viruses were shed by the same donor during an increased exposure timeframe (24-48 h). This highlights that assessment of host and virus factors resulting in a differential exhaled particle profile is critical for understanding airborne transmission.

Viral kinetics of sequential SARS-CoV-2 infections

The impact of a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on the progression of subsequent infections has been unclear. Using a convenience sample of 94,812 longitudinal RT-qPCR measurements from anterior nares and oropharyngeal swabs, we identified 71 individuals with two well-sampled SARS-CoV-2 infections between March 11th, 2020, and July 28th, 2022. We compared the SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics of first vs. second infections in this group, adjusting for viral variant, vaccination status, and age. Relative to first infections, second infections usually featured a faster clearance time. Furthermore, a person's relative (rank-order) viral clearance time, compared to others infected with the same variant, was roughly conserved across first and second infections, so that individuals who had a relatively fast clearance time in their first infection also tended to have a relatively fast clearance time in their second infection (Spearman correlation coefficient: 0.30, 95% credible interval (0.12, 0.46)). These findings provide evidence that, like vaccination, immunity from a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection shortens the duration of subsequent acute SARS-CoV-2 infections principally by reducing viral clearance time. Additionally, there appears to be an inherent element of the immune response, or some other host factor, that shapes a person's relative ability to clear SARS-CoV-2 infection that persists across sequential infections.

Index cases first identified by nasal-swab rapid COVID-19 tests had more transmission to household contacts than cases identified by other test types

At-home rapid COVID-19 tests in the U.S. utilize nasal-swab specimens and require high viral loads to reliably give positive results. Longitudinal studies from the onset of infection have found infectious virus can present in oral specimens days before nasal. Detection and initiation of infection-control practices may therefore be delayed when nasal-swab rapid tests are used, resulting in greater transmission to contacts. We assessed whether index cases first identified by rapid nasal-swab COVID-19 tests had more transmission to household contacts than index cases who used other test types (tests with higher analytical sensitivity and/or non-nasal specimen types). In this observational cohort study, 370 individuals from 85 households with a recent COVID-19 case were screened at least daily by RT-qPCR on one or more self-collected upper-respiratory specimen types. A two-level random intercept model was used to assess the association between the infection outcome of household contacts and each covariable (household size, race/ethnicity, age, vaccination status, viral variant, infection-control practices, and whether a rapid nasal-swab test was used to initially identify the household index case). Transmission was quantified by adjusted secondary attack rates (aSAR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR). An aSAR of 53.6% (95% CI 38.8-68.3%) was observed among households where the index case first tested positive by a rapid nasal-swab COVID-19 test, which was significantly higher than the aSAR for households where the index case utilized another test type (27.2% 95% CI 19.5-35.0%, P = 0.003 pairwise comparisons of predictive margins). We observed an aOR of 4.90 (95% CI 1.65-14.56) for transmission to household contacts when a nasal-swab rapid test was used to identify the index case, compared to other test types. Use of nasal-swab rapid COVID-19 tests for initial detection of infection and initiation of infection control may be less effective at limiting transmission to household contacts than other test types.

A Flexible Regression Modeling Approach Applied to Observational Laboratory Virological Data Suggests That SARS-CoV-2 Load in Upper Respiratory Tract Samples Changes with COVID-19 Epidemiology

(1) Background. Exploring the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 load and clearance from the upper respiratory tract samples is important to improving COVID-19 control. Data were collected retrospectively from a laboratory dataset on SARS-CoV-2 load quantified in leftover nasal pharyngeal swabs (NPSs) collected from symptomatic/asymptomatic individuals who tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection in the framework of testing activities for diagnostic/screening purpose during the 2020 and 2021 winter epidemic waves. (2) Methods. A Statistical approach (quantile regression and survival models for interval-censored data), novel for this kind of data, was applied. We included in the analysis SARS-CoV-2-positive adults >18 years old for whom at least two serial NPSs were collected. A total of 262 SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals and 784 NPSs were included: 193 (593 NPSs) during the 2020 winter wave (before COVID-19 vaccine introduction) and 69 (191 NPSs) during the 2021 winter wave (all COVID-19 vaccinated). We estimated the trend of the median value, as well as the 25th and 75th centiles of the viral load, from the index episode (i.e., first SARS-CoV-2-positive test) until the sixth week (2020 wave) and the third week (2021 wave). Interval censoring methods were used to evaluate the time to SARS-CoV-2 clearance (defined as Ct < 35). (3) Results. At the index episode, the median value of viral load in the 2021 winter wave was 6.25 log copies/mL (95% CI: 5.50-6.70), and the median value in the 2020 winter wave was 5.42 log copies/mL (95% CI: 4.95-5.90). In contrast, 14 days after the index episode, the median value of viral load was 3.40 log copies/mL (95% CI: 3.26-3.54) for individuals during the 2020 winter wave and 2.93 Log copies/mL (95% CI: 2.80-3.19) for those of the 2021 winter wave. A significant difference in viral load shapes was observed among age classes (p = 0.0302) and between symptomatic and asymptomatic participants (p = 0.0187) for the first wave only; the median viral load value is higher at the day of episode index for the youngest (18-39 years) as compared to the older (40-64 years and >64 years) individuals. In the 2021 epidemic, the estimated proportion of individuals who can be considered infectious (Ct < 35) was approximately half that of the 2020 wave. (4) Conclusions. In case of the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, the application of these statistical methods to the analysis of virological laboratory data may provide evidence with which to inform and promptly support public health decision-makers in the modification of COVID-19 control measures.

Modelling how increased Cathepsin B/L and decreased TMPRSS2 usage for cell entry by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant may affect the efficacy and synergy of TMPRSS2 and Cathepsin B/L inhibitors

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant harbours many mutations in its spike protein compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, which may alter its ability to enter cells, cell tropism, and response to interventions blocking virus entry. To elucidate these effects, we developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 entry into target cells and applied it to analyse recent in vitro data. SARS-CoV-2 can enter cells via two pathways, one using the host proteases Cathepsin B/L and the other using the host protease TMPRSS2. We found enhanced entry efficiency of the Omicron variant in cells where the original strain preferentially used Cathepsin B/L and reduced efficiency where it used TMPRSS2. The Omicron variant thus appears to have evolved to use the Cathepsin B/L pathway better but at the expense of its ability to use the TMPRSS2 pathway compared to the original strain. We estimated >4-fold enhanced efficiency of the Omicron variant in entry via the Cathepsin B/L pathway and >3-fold reduced efficiency via the TMPRSS2 pathway compared to the original or other strains in a cell type-dependent manner. Our model predicted that Cathepsin B/L inhibitors would be more efficacious and TMPRSS2 inhibitors less efficacious in blocking Omicron variant entry into cells than the original strain. Furthermore, model predictions suggested that drugs simultaneously targeting the two pathways would exhibit synergy. The maximum synergy and drug concentrations yielding it would differ for the Omicron variant compared to the original strain. Our findings provide insights into the cell entry mechanisms of the Omicron variant and have implications for intervention targeting these mechanisms.

Association between SARS-CoV-2 Symptoms, Ct Values, and Serological Response in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Healthcare Personnel

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are effective at reducing symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19. Limited studies have compared symptoms, threshold cycle (Ct) values from reverse transcription (RT)-PCR testing, and serological testing results between previously vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

Healthcare personnel (HCP) with a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test within the previous 14 to 28 days completed surveys including questions about demographics, medical conditions, social factors, and symptoms of COVID-19. Ct values were observed, and serological testing was performed for anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) and anti-Spike (anti-S) antibodies at enrollment and 40 to 90 days later. Serological results were compared to HCP with no known SARS-CoV-2 infection and negative anti-N testing.

RESULTS

There were 104 unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated and 77 vaccinated HCP with 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine at time of infection. No differences in type or duration of symptoms were reported (P = 0.45). The median (interquartile range [IQR]) Ct was 21.4 (17.6-24.6) and 21.5 (18.1-24.6) for the unvaccinated and vaccinated HCP, respectively. Higher anti-N IgG was observed in unvaccinated HCP (5.08 S/CO, 3.08-6.92) than vaccinated (3.61 signal to cutoff ratio [S/CO], 2.16-5.05). Anti-S IgG was highest among vaccinated HCP with infection (34 285 aribitrary units [AU]/mL, 17 672-61 775), followed by vaccinated HCP with no prior infection (1452 AU/mL, 791-2943), then unvaccinated HCP with infection (829 AU/mL, 290-1555). Anti-S IgG decreased 1.56% (0.9%-1.79%) per day in unvaccinated and 0.38% (0.03%-0.94%) in vaccinated HCP.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinated HCP infected with SARS-CoV-2 reported comparable symptoms and had similar Ct values relative to unvaccinated. However, vaccinated HCP had increased and prolonged anti-S and decreased anti-N response relative to unvaccinated.

Dynamical modelling of viral infection and cooperative immune protection in COVID-19 patients

Once challenged by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the human host immune system triggers a dynamic process against infection. We constructed a mathematical model to describe host innate and adaptive immune response to viral challenge. Based on the dynamic properties of viral load and immune response, we classified the resulting dynamics into four modes, reflecting increasing severity of COVID-19 disease. We found the numerical product of immune system's ability to clear the virus and to kill the infected cells, namely immune efficacy, to be predictive of disease severity. We also investigated vaccine-induced protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results suggested that immune efficacy based on memory T cells and neutralizing antibody titers could be used to predict population vaccine protection rates. Finally, we analyzed infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants within the construct of our mathematical model. Overall, our results provide a systematic framework for understanding the dynamics of host response upon challenge by SARS-CoV-2 infection, and this framework can be used to predict vaccine protection and perform clinical diagnosis.

COVID-19 in immunocompromised children: comparison of SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics between the first and third waves

SARS-CoV-2 dynamics across different COVID-19 waves has been unclear in immunocompromised children. We aimed to compare the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral load (VL) during the first and third waves of COVID-19 in immunocompromised children. A retrospective and longitudinal cohort study was conducted in a pediatric referral hospital of Argentina. The study included 28 admitted immunocompromised children with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Thirteen acquired the infection during COVID-19 first wave (May to August 2020, group 1 (G1)) and fifteen in the third wave (January to March 2022, group 2 (G2)). RNA viral load measure and its dynamic reconstruction were performed in nasopharyngeal swabs by validated quantitative, real time RT-PCR, and linear mixed-effects model, respectively. Of the 28 children included, 54% were girls, most of them had hemato-oncological pathology (57%), and the median age was 8 years (interquartile range (IQR): 3-13). The dynamic of VL was similar in both groups (P = 0.148), starting from a level of 5.34 log10 copies/mL (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.47-6.21) in G1 and 5.79 log10 copies/mL (95% CI: 4.93-6.65) in G2. Then, VL decayed with a rate of 0.059 (95% CI: 0.038-0.080) and 0.088 (95% CI: 0.058-0.118) log10 copies/mL per day since diagnosis and fell below the limit of quantification at days 51 and 39 after diagnosis in G1 and G2, respectively. Our results evidenced a longer viral RNA persistence in immunocompromised pediatric patients and no difference in VL dynamic between COVID-19 first wave-attributed to ancestral infections-and third wave-attributed to Omicron infections.

Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Daily SARS-CoV-2 Nasal Antigen Tests Miss Infected and Presumably Infectious People Due to Viral Load Differences among Specimen Types

In a recent household transmission study of SARS-CoV-2, we found extreme differences in SARS-CoV-2 viral loads among paired saliva, anterior nares swab (ANS), and oropharyngeal swab specimens collected from the same time point. We hypothesized these differences may hinder low-analytical-sensitivity assays (including antigen rapid diagnostic tests [Ag-RDTs]) by using a single specimen type (e.g., ANS) from reliably detecting infected and infectious individuals. We evaluated daily at-home ANS Ag-RDTs (Quidel QuickVue) in a cross-sectional analysis of 228 individuals and a longitudinal analysis (throughout infection) of 17 individuals enrolled early in the course of infection. Ag-RDT results were compared to reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) results and high, presumably infectious viral loads (in each, or any, specimen type). The ANS Ag-RDT correctly detected only 44% of time points from infected individuals on cross-sectional analysis, and this population had an inferred limit of detection of 7.6 × 106 copies/mL. From the longitudinal cohort, daily Ag-RDT clinical sensitivity was very low (<3%) during the early, preinfectious period of the infection. Further, the Ag-RDT detected ≤63% of presumably infectious time points. The poor observed clinical sensitivity of the Ag-RDT was similar to what was predicted based on quantitative ANS viral loads and the inferred limit of detection of the ANS Ag-RDT being evaluated, indicating high-quality self-sampling. Nasal Ag-RDTs, even when used daily, can miss individuals infected with the Omicron variant and even those presumably infectious. Evaluations of Ag-RDTs for detection of infected or infectious individuals should be compared with a composite (multispecimen) infection status to correctly assess performance. IMPORTANCE We reveal three findings from a longitudinal study of daily nasal antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) evaluated against SARS-CoV-2 viral load quantification in three specimen types (saliva, nasal swab, and throat swab) in participants enrolled at the incidence of infection. First, the evaluated Ag-RDT showed low (44%) clinical sensitivity for detecting infected persons at all infection stages. Second, the Ag-RDT poorly detected (≤63%) time points that participants had high and presumably infectious viral loads in at least one specimen type. This poor clinical sensitivity to detect infectious individuals is inconsistent with the commonly held view that daily Ag-RDTs have near-perfect detection of infectious individuals. Third, use of a combination nasal-throat specimen type was inferred by viral loads to significantly improve Ag-RDT performance to detect infectious individuals.

The role of vaccination route with an adenovirus-vectored vaccine in protection, viral control, and transmission in the SARS-CoV-2/K18-hACE2 mouse infection model

Introduction

Vaccination is the most effective mechanism to prevent severe COVID-19. However, breakthrough infections and subsequent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remain a significant problem. Intranasal vaccination has the potential to be more effective in preventing disease and limiting transmission between individuals as it induces potent responses at mucosal sites.

Methods

Utilizing a replication-deficient adenovirus serotype 5-vectored vaccine expressing the SARS-CoV-2 RBD (AdCOVID) in homozygous and heterozygous transgenic K18-hACE2, we investigated the impact of the route of administration on vaccine immunogenicity, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and survival.

Results

Mice vaccinated with AdCOVID via the intramuscular or intranasal route and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV-2 showed that animals vaccinated intranasally had improved cellular and mucosal antibody responses. Additionally, intranasally vaccinated animals had significantly better viremic control, and protection from lethal infection compared to intramuscularly vaccinated animals. Notably, in a novel transmission model, intranasal vaccination reduced viral transmission to naïve co-housed mice compared to intramuscular vaccination.

Discussion

Our data provide convincing evidence for the use of intranasal vaccination in protecting against SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission.

Mutational basis of serum cross-neutralization profiles elicited by infection or vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 variants

A series of SARS-CoV-2 variants emerged during the pandemic under selection for neutralization resistance. Convalescent and vaccinated sera show consistently different cross-neutralization profiles depending on infecting or vaccine variants. To understand the basis of this heterogeneity, we modeled serum cross-neutralization titers for 165 sera after infection or vaccination with historically prominent lineages tested against 18 variant pseudoviruses. Cross-neutralization profiles were well captured by models incorporating autologous neutralizing titers and combinations of specific shared and differing mutations between the infecting/vaccine variants and pseudoviruses. Infecting/vaccine variant-specific models identified mutations that significantly impacted cross-neutralization and quantified their relative contributions. Unified models that explained cross-neutralization profiles across all infecting and vaccine variants provided accurate predictions of holdout neutralization data comprising untested variants as infecting or vaccine variants, and as test pseudoviruses. Finally, comparative modeling of 2-dose versus 3-dose mRNA-1273 vaccine data revealed that the third dose overcame key resistance mutations to improve neutralization breadth.

HIGHLIGHTS

Modeled SARS-CoV-2 cross-neutralization using mutations at key sitesIdentified resistance mutations and quantified relative impactAccurately predicted holdout variant and convalescent/vaccine sera neutralizationShowed that the third dose of mRNA-1273 vaccination overcomes resistance mutations.

Total and Subgenomic RNA Viral Load in Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Alpha, Delta, and Omicron Variants

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomic and subgenomic RNA levels are frequently used as a correlate of infectiousness. The impact of host factors and SARS-CoV-2 lineage on RNA viral load is unclear.

METHODS

Total nucleocapsid (N) and subgenomic N (sgN) RNA levels were measured by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in specimens from 3204 individuals hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at 21 hospitals. RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were used to estimate RNA viral load. The impact of time of sampling, SARS-CoV-2 variant, age, comorbidities, vaccination, and immune status on N and sgN Ct values were evaluated using multiple linear regression.

RESULTS

Mean Ct values at presentation for N were 24.14 (SD 4.53) for non-variants of concern, 25.15 (SD 4.33) for Alpha, 25.31 (SD 4.50) for Delta, and 26.26 (SD 4.42) for Omicron. N and sgN RNA levels varied with time since symptom onset and infecting variant but not with age, comorbidity, immune status, or vaccination. When normalized to total N RNA, sgN levels were similar across all variants.

CONCLUSIONS

RNA viral loads were similar among hospitalized adults, irrespective of infecting variant and known risk factors for severe COVID-19. Total N and subgenomic RNA N viral loads were highly correlated, suggesting that subgenomic RNA measurements add little information for the purposes of estimating infectivity.

Metallic nanoplatforms for COVID-19 diagnostics: versatile applications in the pandemic and post-pandemic era

The COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in Hubei, China, in December 2019, has had a profound impact on global public health. With the elucidation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus structure, genome type, and routes of infection, a variety of diagnostic methods have been developed for COVID-19 detection and surveillance. Although the pandemic has been declared over, we are still significantly affected by it in our daily lives in the post-pandemic era. Among the various diagnostic methods, nanomaterials, especially metallic nanomaterials, have shown great potential in the field of bioanalysis due to their unique physical and chemical properties. This review highlights the important role of metallic nanosensors in achieving accurate and efficient detection of COVID-19 during the pandemic outbreak and spread. The sensing mechanisms of each diagnostic device capable of analyzing a range of targets, including viral nucleic acids and various proteins, are described. Since SARS-CoV-2 is constantly mutating, strategies for dealing with new variants are also suggested. In addition, we discuss the analytical tools needed to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants in the current post-pandemic era, with a focus on achieving rapid and accurate detection. Finally, we address the challenges and future directions of metallic nanomaterial-based COVID-19 detection, which may inspire researchers to develop advanced biosensors for COVID-19 monitoring and rapid response to other virus-induced pandemics based on our current achievements.

Viral and antibody dynamics of acute infection with SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant (B.1.1.529): a prospective cohort study from Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND

Elucidating viral dynamics within the host is important for designing public health measures against SARS-CoV-2, particularly during the early stages of infection when transmission potential rapidly increases. We aimed to analyse the viral and antibody dynamics of the omicron variant in relation to symptom onset or laboratory confirmation and replication dynamics throughout the infection course.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to Shenzhen Third People's Hospital (Shenzhen, China) between Jan 11, 2020, and April 24, 2022, were screened for eligibility. We included immunocompetent individuals with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection without antiviral agents targeting SARS-CoV-2. Serial nasopharyngeal swabs and plasma samples were analysed for viral RNAs and specific IgG antibodies of SARS-CoV-2. The comparative viral and antibody kinetics in association with symptom onset or laboratory confirmation and replication dynamics throughout the infection course were calculated by the locally estimated scatterplot smoothing curve fitting polynomial regression. The associations between viral and antibody dynamics and vaccination, age, sex, disease severity, and underlying health conditions were analysed using the Mann-Whitney U test and the Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon method.

FINDINGS

15 406 serial nasopharyngeal swabs and 2324 plasma samples were taken from 2043 individuals with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (n=217 prototype [A.1] and D614G [B.1] variant [wild-type]; n=105 delta variant [B.1.617.2]; n=1721 omicron variant [B.1.1.529]) and were included for the analyses. The mean Ct value of omicron variant on the first day post symptom onset (dpo; defined as the first day post laboratory confirmation in asymptomatic participants) was 22·65 (95% CI 22·05-23·26). Peak viral load was reached with a mean Ct value of 17·63 (17·47-17·79) at a mean of 3·19 dpo (95% CI 3·09-3·28), and viral clearance (Ct values ≥35) was reached at a mean of 13·50 dpo (95% CI 13·32-13·67). Omicron variant showed faster viral replication and clearance than wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and delta variant, and the viral load at the first dpo and the peak viral load was lower than delta variant but higher than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Age, sex, disease severity, and underlying health conditions were associated with the viral dynamics of omicron variant, with faster viral clearance found in young (aged 0-14 years), male, and asymptomatic participants, and those without underlying health conditions. Replication dynamics thoughout the infection course showed that peak viral load was reached at a mean of 5·06 dpo (4·76-5·36) and viral clearance took a mean of 14·27 days (13·6-14·93) for omicron variant. SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG increased earlier and faster to significantly higher concentrations in breakthrough infection than naive infection with omicron variant, despite long intervals (≥7 months) between the last dose of vaccination and infection.

INTERPRETATION

Our data provide a comprehensive overview of the longitudinal viral and antibody dynamics of omicron variant in people with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, with important implications for public health strategies, including population screening, antiviral treatment, isolation periods, and vaccination.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China and Emergency Key Program of Guangzhou Laboratory.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Humoral immune responses associated with control of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in a vaccinated US military population

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines have been critical for protection against severe disease following infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) but gaps remain in our understanding of the immune responses that contribute to controlling subclinical and mild infections.

METHODS

Vaccinated, active-duty US military service members were enrolled in a non-interventional, minimal-risk, observational study starting in May, 2021. Clinical data, serum, and saliva samples were collected from study participants and were used to characterise the humoral immune responses to vaccination and to assess its impact on clinical and subclinical infections, as well as virologic outcomes of breakthrough infections (BTI) including viral load and infection duration.

FINDINGS

The majority of VIRAMP participants had received the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine and by January, 2022, N = 149 had a BTI. The median BTI duration (PCR+ days) was 4 days and the interquartile range was 1-8 days. Participants that were nucleocapsid seropositive prior to their BTI had significantly higher levels of binding and functional antibodies to the spike protein, shorter median duration of infections, and lower median peak viral loads compared to seronegative participants. Furthermore, levels of neutralising antibody, ACE2 blocking activity, and spike-specific IgA measured prior to BTI also correlated with the duration of infection.

INTERPRETATION

We extended previous findings and demonstrate that a subset of vaccine-induced humoral immune responses, along with nucleocapsid serostatus are associated with control of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in the upper airways.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the DoD Joint Program Executive Office for Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense (JPEO-CBRND) in collaboration with the Defense Health Agency (DHA) COVID-19 funding initiative for the VIRAMP study.