Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel

Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'

This study aims at exploring a general and adaptive control strategy to confront the rapid evolution of an emerging infectious disease ('Disease X'), drawing lessons from the management of COVID-19 in China. We employ a dynamic model incorporating age structures and vaccination statuses, which is calibrated using epidemic data. We therefore estimate the cumulative infection rate (CIR) during the first epidemic wave of Omicron variant after China relaxed its zero-COVID policy to be 82.9% (95% CI: 82.3%, 83.5%), with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.25% (95% CI: 0.248%, 0.253%). We further show that if the zero-COVID policy had been eased in January 2022, the CIR and CFR would have decreased to 81.64% and 0.205%, respectively, due to a higher level of immunity from vaccination. However, if we ease the zero-COVID policy during the circulation of Delta variant from June 2021, the CIR would decrease to 74.06% while the CFR would significantly increase to 1.065%. Therefore, in the face of a 'Disease X', the adaptive strategies should be guided by multiple factors, the 'zero-COVID-like' policy could be a feasible and effective way for the control of a variant with relative low transmissibility. However, we should ease the strategy as the virus matures into a new variant with much higher transmissibility, particularly when the population is at a high level of immunity.

Joint analysis of time-varying effect of vaccine and antiviral drug for preventing severe complications and mortality

This study investigated the time-varying effects of vaccines and oral antiviral drugs in preventing severe COVID-19 complications and mortality in Hong Kong. Utilizing data from hospitalized patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 between March 15, 2022, and November 30, 2022, the study employed the Andersen-Gill model with time-dependent explanatory variables to address immortal time bias. Results demonstrate that both vaccines and oral antivirals offered time-dependent protection, with vaccines showing significant waning effects after the fourth dose. Oral antivirals were most effective if administered within five days of diagnosis. Understanding these temporal effects is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies and improving clinical outcomes. The study also underscores the importance of considering pharmacodynamics and vaccination schedules in combating COVID-19.

Real-world cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir as treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Belgian setting with omicron variant

Background

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is an oral treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients who are at high risk of developing severe COVID-19 disease. This antiviral has proven to significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization and death compared to no anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatment in this target population. This paper aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in Belgium using real-world evidence.

Methods

A static decision tree model was developed to capture the health progression of patients infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Outcomes were expressed in Quality Adjusted-Life Years (QALYs), hospitalizations, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, deaths and Long Covid cases, derived from epidemiological data over the first full year of the Omicron variant's circulation (2022). Costs were calculated for the year 2023 from the healthcare payer's perspective. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results.

Results

In a cohort of 1,000 patients, treatment with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is projected to save 95 QALYs and €82,658 compared to no anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatment over a lifetime horizon. These savings primarily stem from the reduction in hospitalizations among vulnerable patients who typically require a longer recovery time. The analysis also indicates 5 fewer ICU admissions and 8 fewer premature deaths per 1,000 infected patients.

Conclusion

In the context of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection, administering nirmatrelvir-ritonavir to patients at high risk of severe disease improves health outcomes and reduces costs. Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is 100% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of €2,000 per QALY.

Safety and humoral immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine administered as a fourth dose booster following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and a third dose of BNT162b2 (COV009): A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Evaluation of the safety and humoral immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 as a fourth dose booster in individuals who have had two initial doses of the vaccine and a third dose of BNT162b2.

METHODS

COV009 is a safety follow-up study of volunteers enroled in the pivotal pre-licensure ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. In this sub-study, 149 eligible participants were given a fourth dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Primary outcomes were reactogenicity, safety, and humoral immunogenicity. Anti-spike IgG and pseudo-neutralising antibody against multiple variants were measured from pre-first dose to 28 days post-second and post-fourth dose (third dose samples were unavailable).

RESULTS

A fourth dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 had an acceptable safety profile with no vaccine-related serious adverse events. Humoral responses against various SARS CoV-2 variants post-fourth dose were significantly increased compared with the responses after the second dose (7- to 9-fold increase for anti-spike IgG responses across variants, all p<0.05). Those with lower antibody levels prior to the 4th dose had stronger responses to a 4th dose booster. Seropositivity by anti-nucleocapsid, or higher antibody responses pre-fourth dose correlated with lower infection risks six months thereafter (OR: 0.16, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 fourth dose is well tolerated and boosts humoral immunity; this was evident as an increased humoral response across multiple variants of concern. These data support its use as a booster dose against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Enhancing the immunogenicity of lipid-nanoparticle mRNA vaccines by adjuvanting the ionizable lipid and the mRNA

To elicit optimal immune responses, messenger RNA vaccines require intracellular delivery of the mRNA and the careful use of adjuvants. Here we report a multiply adjuvanted mRNA vaccine consisting of lipid nanoparticles encapsulating an mRNA-encoded antigen, optimized for efficient mRNA delivery and for the enhanced activation of innate and adaptive responses. We optimized the vaccine by screening a library of 480 biodegradable ionizable lipids with headgroups adjuvanted with cyclic amines and by adjuvanting the mRNA-encoded antigen by fusing it with a natural adjuvant derived from the C3 complement protein. In mice, intramuscular or intranasal administration of nanoparticles with the lead ionizable lipid and with mRNA encoding for the fusion protein (either the spike protein or the receptor-binding domain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)) increased the titres of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 tenfold with respect to the vaccine encoding for the unadjuvanted antigen. Multiply adjuvanted mRNA vaccines may improve the efficacy, safety and ease of administration of mRNA-based immunization.

Neutralizing antibody immune correlates in COVAIL trial recipients of an mRNA second COVID-19 vaccine boost

Neutralizing antibody titer has been a surrogate endpoint for guiding COVID-19 vaccine approval and use, although the pandemic's evolution and the introduction of variant-adapted vaccine boosters raise questions as to this surrogate's contemporary performance. For 985 recipients of an mRNA second bivalent or monovalent booster containing various Spike inserts [Prototype (Ancestral), Beta, Delta, and/or Omicron BA.1 or BA.4/5] in the COVAIL trial (NCT05289037), titers against 5 strains were assessed as correlates of risk of symptomatic COVID-19 ("COVID-19") and as correlates of relative (Pfizer-BioNTech Omicron vs. Prototype) booster protection against COVID-19 over 6 months of follow-up during the BA.2-BA.5 Omicron-dominant period. Consistently across the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine platforms and across all variant Spike inserts assessed, both peak and exposure-proximal ("predicted-at-exposure") titers correlated with lower Omicron COVID-19 risk in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, albeit significantly less so in naïve individuals [e.g., exposure-proximal hazard ratio per 10-fold increase in BA.1 titer 0.74 (95% CI 0.59, 0.94) for naïve vs. 0.41 (95% CI 0.23, 0.64) for non-naïve; interaction p = 0.013]. Neutralizing antibody titer was a strong inverse correlate of Omicron COVID-19 in non-naïve individuals and a weaker correlate in naïve individuals, posing questions about how prior infection alters the neutralization correlate.

B and T cell responses to the 3rd and 4th dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine in dialysis patients

Patients on dialysis (PoD) are at high risk of severe morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Characterizing long-term vaccine immune responses in these patients will help optimize vaccine schedule for PoD. This study aimed to determine whether long-term humoral and B and T cell-responses post 3rd and 4th dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine differed between PoD and controls. Non-infected PoD and controls vaccinated with BNT162b2 were recruited in Ziv Medical Center, Israel, between 2021 and 2022. Specimens were collected 1-2 months pre 3rd dose; 1-3 months post 3rd dose; 4-5 months post 3rd dose and 3-5 months post the 4th dose. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (spike) specific antibodies, spike specific memory B cells, and spike specific CD154+ T cells as well as cytokines producing CD4+/CD8+ T cells were measured using standardized assays and compared between PoD and controls at each time point using Mann Whitney and Fisher's exact tests. We recruited 22 PoD and 20 controls. Antibody levels in PoD were lower compared to controls pre 3rd dose but not post 3rd and 4th doses. Frequencies of spike specific memory B cell populations were similar between PoD and controls overall. Frequencies of spike specific T cells, including those producing IFNγ and TNFα, were not lower in PoD. B and T cell mediated immune response in PoD following a 3rd and a 4th dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was not inferior to controls up to 5 months post vaccination. Our results suggest that standard BNT162b2 vaccination is suitable for this group.

Enhanced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in returning Chinese individuals

Global COVID-19 vaccination programs effectively contained the fast spread of SARS-CoV-2. Characterizing the immunity status of returned populations will favor understanding the achievement of herd immunity and long-term management of COVID-19 in China. Individuals were recruited from 7 quarantine stations in Guangzhou, China. Blood and throat swab specimens were collected from participants, and their immunity status was determined through competitive ELISA, microneutralization assay and enzyme-linked FluoroSpot assay. A total of 272 subjects were involved in the questionnaire survey, of whom 235 (86.4%) were returning Chinese individuals and 37 (13.6%) were foreigners. Blood and throat swab specimens were collected from 108 returning Chinese individuals. Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in ~90% of returning Chinese individuals, either in the primary or the homologous and heterologous booster vaccination group. The serum NAb titers were significantly decreased against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, BF.7, BQ.1 and XBB.1 compared with the prototype virus. However, memory T-cell responses, including specific IFN-γ and IL-2 responses, were not different in either group. Smoking, alcohol consumption, SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 vaccination, and the time interval between last vaccination and sampling were independent influencing factors for NAb titers against prototype SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern. The vaccine dose was the unique common influencing factor for Omicron subvariants. Enhanced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 was established in returning Chinese individuals who were exposed to reinfection and vaccination. Domestic residents will benefit from booster homologous or heterologous COVID-19 vaccination after reopening of China, which is also useful against breakthrough infection.

Vaccination for solid organ transplanted patients: Recommendations, efficacy, and safety

Solid organ transplant recipients face unique challenges in managing their immunosuppressed status, making vaccination a critical consideration. This review aimed to comprehensively analyze current recommendations, evaluate the efficacy of vaccinations in this population, and assess safety concerns. We explored the latest evidence on vaccine types, timing, and potential benefits for transplant patients, highlighting the importance of individualized approaches for routinely used vaccines as well as coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines. By synthesizing available data, this review underscored the pressing need to optimize vaccination strategies, ensuring that transplant recipients can obtain the full protection against many pathogens while minimizing risks associated with their post-transplant immunosuppression.

Maintenance and functional regulation of immune memory to COVID-19 vaccines in tissues

Memory T and B cells in tissues are essential for protective immunity. Here, we performed a comprehensive analysis of the tissue distribution, phenotype, durability, and transcriptional profile of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-induced immune memory across blood, lymphoid organs, and lungs obtained from 63 vaccinated organ donors aged 23-86, some of whom experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection. Spike (S)-reactive memory T cells were detected in lymphoid organs and lungs and variably expressed tissue-resident markers based on infection history, and S-reactive B cells comprised class-switched memory cells resident in lymphoid organs. Compared with blood, S-reactive tissue memory T cells persisted for longer times post-vaccination and were more prevalent with age. S-reactive T cells displayed site-specific subset compositions and functions: regulatory cell profiles were enriched in tissues, while effector and cytolytic profiles were more abundant in circulation. Our findings reveal functional compartmentalization of vaccine-induced T cell memory where surveilling effectors and in situ regulatory responses confer protection with minimal tissue damage.

Behavioral and Health Outcomes of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination: A Case-Control Study in Japanese Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Background Despite ongoing waves of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, including significant surges such as the 10th wave, understanding the impact of messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccination on infection risk and associated behavioral changes remains crucial. This study aims to urgently evaluate the effects of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination on COVID-19 infection rates and related behaviors among participants of the Yamato Project, which includes employees of Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Methods A case-control study was conducted using data collected from a survey administered by the Japan Small and Medium Enterprise Management Council in December 2023. Participants included individuals who were part of the Yamato Project, not necessarily limited to SME employees. The survey gathered information on demographic characteristics, COVID-19 infection status, vaccination history, health status before January 2020, and various preventive behaviors. The primary outcome was the presence or absence of COVID-19 infection. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between vaccination status and COVID-19 infection. Results A total of 913 participants were included in the final analysis. The adjusted ORs for COVID-19 infection among vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals were 1.85 (95% CI: 1.33-2.57, p < 0.001). The odds of contracting COVID-19 increased with the number of vaccine doses: one to two doses (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.08-2.46, p = 0.020), three to four doses (OR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.35-3.08, p = 0.001), and five to seven doses (OR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.07-4.56, p = 0.033). Behavioral analysis indicated that a reduced frequency of bathing and exercising was significantly associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates (p < 0.05). Conclusions The study observed a higher reported incidence of COVID-19 infection among vaccinated individuals during the pandemic period, which increased with the number of vaccine doses received. This paradoxical finding may be influenced by various factors, including immune response mechanisms, such as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) or original antigenic sin, behavioral changes, and exposure risk. Understanding these factors is crucial for urgently enhancing public health strategies and vaccination programs.

Longitudinal effects of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection on imprinting of neutralizing antibody responses

BACKGROUND

The impact of the infecting SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) and the vaccination status was determined on the magnitude, breadth, and durability of the neutralizing antibody (nAb) profile in a longitudinal multicentre cohort study.

METHODS

173 vaccinated and 56 non-vaccinated individuals were enrolled after SARS-CoV-2 Alpha, Delta, or Omicron infection and visited four times within 6 months and nAbs were measured for D614G, Alpha, Delta, BA.1, BA.2, BA.5, BQ.1.1, XBB.1.5 and JN.1.

FINDINGS

Magnitude-breadth-analysis showed enhanced neutralization capacity in vaccinated individuals against multiple VOCs. Longitudinal analysis revealed sustained neutralization magnitude-breadth after antigenically distant Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection (BTI), with triple-vaccinated individuals showing significantly elevated titres and improved breadth. Antigenic mapping and antibody landscaping revealed initial boosting of vaccine-induced WT-specific responses after BTI, a shift in neutralization towards infecting VOCs at peak responses and an immune imprinted bias towards dominating WT immunity in the long-term. Despite that bias, machine-learning models confirmed a sustained shift of the immune-profiles following BTI.

INTERPRETATION

In summary, our longitudinal analysis revealed delayed and short lived nAb shifts towards the infecting VOC, but an immune imprinted bias towards long-term vaccine induced immunity after BTI.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts for the CoVaKo study and the ForCovid project. The funders had no influence on the study design, data analysis or data interpretation.

Early Elevated Inflammatory Markers in SARS-CoV-2 Vaccinated Patients Are Associated with Reduced Mortality, Morbidity, and Lung Injury

Background The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 has proved to be a highly successful strategy. In this work, the aim is to study the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine on the production of inflammatory markers and how this affect morbidity and mortality. Electronic medical record (EMR) data from 210 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from November 2020 to June 2021 were collected. The admitted patients were divided into three groups, the one-dose vaccinated, two-dose vaccinated, and the non-vaccinated. All patients were moderate or severe in disease level as defined by the WHO classification. The results show that CRP was 101 ± 5.3, 97 ± 10.8, and 145 ± 17.3 (p < 0.05), fibrinogen 529 ± 16.3, 397 ± 33.8, and 610 ± 15 (p < 0.05), D-dimer 1244 ± 89, 1279 ± 297, and 1615 ± 224 (p < 0.05), ferritin was 1170 ± 122, 999 ± 202, and 1663 ± 409 (p < 0.05), IL-6 was 196 ± 12, 96 ± 5, and 580 ± 402 (NS), for the non-vaccinated, one-dose vaccinated, and two-dose vaccinated groups, respectively. The high level of CRP up to 150-200 mg/dL was more common among the surviving vaccinated patients. Oxygen supplementation, mechanical ventilation, and mortality were higher in the non-vaccinated group. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level was higher in the vaccinated patients, 25 ± 0.14 vs. 33 ± 6.15, respectively (p < 0.05). Inflammation markers were significantly higher in the vaccinated groups compared to non-vaccinated groups. On the other hand, extremely high levels of CRP (>200 mg/dL) were correlated with high mortality incidence.

A novel multivariate time series forecasting dendritic neuron model for COVID-19 pandemic transmission tendency

A novel coronavirus discovered in late 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread into a global epidemic and, thankfully, was brought under control by 2022. Because of the virus's unknown mutations and the vaccine's waning potency, forecasting is still essential for resurgence prevention and medical resource management. Computational efficiency and long-term accuracy are two bottlenecks for national-level forecasting. This study develops a novel multivariate time series forecasting model, the densely connected highly flexible dendritic neuron model (DFDNM) to predict daily and weekly positive COVID-19 cases. DFDNM's high flexibility mechanism improves its capacity to deal with nonlinear challenges. The dense introduction of shortcut connections alleviates the vanishing and exploding gradient problems, encourages feature reuse, and improves feature extraction. To deal with the rapidly growing parameters, an improved variation of the adaptive moment estimation (AdamW) algorithm is employed as the learning algorithm for the DFDNM because of its strong optimization ability. The experimental results and statistical analysis conducted across three Japanese prefectures confirm the efficacy and feasibility of the DFDNM while outperforming various state-of-the-art machine learning models. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed DFDNM is the first to restructure the dendritic neuron model's neural architecture, demonstrating promising use in multivariate time series prediction. Because of its optimal performance, the DFDNM may serve as an important reference for national and regional government decision-makers aiming to optimize pandemic prevention and medical resource management. We also verify that DFDMN is efficiently applicable not only to COVID-19 transmission prediction, but also to more general multivariate prediction tasks. It leads us to believe that it might be applied as a promising prediction model in other fields.

The epidemiology and phylogenetic trends of Omicron subvariants from BA.5 to XBB.1 in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Omicron, a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, entered Taiwan at the end of 2021. The Taiwanese government ended its "zero-COVID" policy in March 2022. Multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks began in April 2022. We monitored the replacement of Omicron subvariants after BA.1/BA.2 and analyzed their correlation with COVID-19 outbreaks.

METHODS

We collected SARS-CoV-2 real-time qRTPCR-positive nasopharyngeal swabs from Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital (KMUH), Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, and performed sequencing for specimens exhibiting a cytopathic effect in Vero E6 cells to determine their clades and lineages. We analyzed the medical records of COVID-19 patients and identified hospitalization risk factor(s). We retrieved SARS-CoV-2 sequences identified in Taiwan from GISAID and analyzed their correlation with COVID-19 data from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control.

RESULTS

We analyzed the phylogenesis of KMUH-47 to KMUH-104 (SARS-CoV-2 isolates identified herein) and all of the Omicron subvariants from BA.5 to XBB.1 (n = 1930). Age and comorbidities were hospitalization risk factors. Men generally exhibited a greater fatality rate than women. COVID-19-related deaths predominantly occurred in individuals over 70 years old. The COVID-19-related case fatality rate increased as nucleotide (NT) and amino acid (AA) substitutions increased. The number of COVID-19-related cases and deaths progressively decreased with each outbreak between August 2022 and October 2023.

CONCLUSION

Hospitalization was associated with age and the presence of comorbidities. COVID-19-related fatality was linked to sex, age, and the accumulation of NT and AA substitutions in emerging Omicron subvariants.

Antibody Response After a Fifth Dose (Third Booster) of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine in Healthcare Workers

Although a fourth dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was shown to be effective, the immunogenicity of a fifth dose in immunocompetent individuals had not been well described. This was a prospective observational cohort study of previously vaccinated healthcare workers at a single tertiary hospital in Israel. Individuals were administered up to three booster doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (i.e., up to five overall doses), during the period between July 2021 and January 2023. Immunogenicity was assessed using the SARS-CoV-2 IgG (sCOVG) semi-quantitative assay, performed at several time points. The cohort consisted of 162 individuals (median age 69 years, 62% female). Of these, 104 (64%) received four doses and 58 (36%) received five doses. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels increased in all cases, regardless of the baseline levels. The fold-change increase in the mean sCOVG index was 29.2 (SD 2.6) after the third vaccine, 3.8 (SD 2.4) after the fourth vaccine, and 3.6 (SD 3.0) after the fifth vaccine. A waning effect over time was seen in 78% and 43% of participants for the third and fourth doses, respectively. Adverse events following the fifth dose were limited and mild. Similar to previous booster vaccines, a fifth dose of BNT162b2 is immunogenic and safe in healthy individuals, although the clinical implications remain unclear.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthy blood donors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The development of a potent immune response and antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 is important for herd immunity. The serological response may be due to a previous infection or vaccination. Healthy blood donors could represent and provide information on the immune status of the general population. Therefore, we estimated the global and regional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthy blood donors.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, Scopus, and ProQuest from December 2019 to January 2023. After critical appraisal and quality assessment, a qualitative synthesis of the identified relevant articles was performed. The random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Funnel plots and Egger's test were used to assess publication bias. Sensitivity analysis was performed, and heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 70 peer-reviewed articles were selected that together included 2,454,192 blood donors. The global estimated pooled prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthy blood donors was 10.3% (95% CI: 4.6 - 18.0%, n = 70). The highest seroprevalence was observed in Asia (17.7%), followed by Africa (16.1%). The seroprevalence in studies conducted before the introduction of the vaccine was 6.1%, whereas those of studies conducted after vaccines were available was 27.6%. High seroprevalence was observed in studies that measured antibodies against the S protein of the virus (15.2%), while lower (12.5%) in those that measured antibodies against the N protein. A high seroprevalence was observed in studies that only measured IgG antibodies (16.3%), and it was 5.9% in studies that measured total antibodies.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthy blood donors varies, potentially indicating geographical disparities in transmission and vaccination rates. To enhance community resilience, addressing these differences through inclusive health policies and adaptable public health measures is crucial.

Comparable antibody levels in heterologous and homologous mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, with superior neutralizing and IgA antibody responses in mRNA homologous boosting

BACKGROUND

Priming with two doses of AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca; ChAd) followed by a third mRNA vaccine boosting is considered in several countries, yet comparisons between heterologous and homologous booster efficacy remain unexplored.

AIM

To evaluate and contrast the immunogenicity of homologous and heterologous boosting regimens.

METHOD

The study examined antibody responses in 1113 subjects, comprising 895 vaccine-naïve individuals across different vaccination strategies (partial, primary series, heterologous booster, homologous booster) and 218 unvaccinated, naturally infected individuals. Assessments included neutralizing total antibodies (NTAbs), total antibodies (TAbs), anti-S-RBD IgG, and anti-S1 IgA levels.

RESULTS

The study found mRNA vaccines to exhibit superior immunogenicity in primary series vaccination compared to ChAd, with mRNA-1273 significantly enhancing NTAbs, TAbs, anti-S-RBD IgG, and anti-S1 IgA levels (p < 0.001). Both booster types improved antibody levels beyond primary outcomes, with no significant difference in TAbs and anti-S-RBD IgG levels between regimens. However, homologous mRNA boosters significantly outperformed heterologous boosters in enhancing NTAbs and anti-S1 IgA levels, with the BNT/BNT/BNT regimen yielding particularly higher enhancements (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The study concludes that although TAbs and anti-S-RBD IgG antibody levels are similar for both regimens, homologous mRNA boosting outperform heterologous regimen by enhancing anti-S1 IgA and neutralizing antibody levels.

Mucosal adenovirus vaccine boosting elicits IgA and durably prevents XBB.1.16 infection in nonhuman primates

A mucosal route of vaccination could prevent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication at the site of infection and limit transmission. We compared protection against heterologous XBB.1.16 challenge in nonhuman primates (NHPs) ~5 months following intramuscular boosting with bivalent mRNA encoding WA1 and BA.5 spike proteins or mucosal boosting with a WA1-BA.5 bivalent chimpanzee adenoviral-vectored vaccine delivered by intranasal or aerosol device. NHPs boosted by either mucosal route had minimal virus replication in the nose and lungs, respectively. By contrast, protection by intramuscular mRNA was limited to the lower airways. The mucosally delivered vaccine elicited durable airway IgG and IgA responses and, unlike the intramuscular mRNA vaccine, induced spike-specific B cells in the lungs. IgG, IgA and T cell responses correlated with protection in the lungs, whereas mucosal IgA alone correlated with upper airway protection. This study highlights differential mucosal and serum correlates of protection and how mucosal vaccines can durably prevent infection against SARS-CoV-2.

Effects of the induction of humoral and cellular immunity by third vaccination for SARS-CoV-2

INTRODUCTION

To control the spread of severe disease caused by mutant strains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it is necessary to determine whether continued vaccination enhances humoral and cellular immunity.

AIM

In this study, we examined the changes in humoral and cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 after administration of the third vaccination in Japanese adults who had received the second dose of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-1273 vaccine and the third vaccination (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273).

METHODS

We measured anti-spike antibodies in immunoglobulin G (IgG) and anti-nucleocapsid IgG titers in the serum of the vaccinated subjects. To evaluate cellular immunity, the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of inoculated individuals were cultured with spiked proteins, including those of the SARS-CoV-2 conventional strain and Omicron strain, and then subjected to enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT).

RESULTS

The results revealed that the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibody titer increased after the third vaccination and was maintained; however, a decrease was observed at 6 months after vaccination. SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific T helper (Th)1 and Th2 cell responses were also induced after the third vaccination and were maintained for 6 months after vaccination. Furthermore, induction of cellular immunity against Omicron strains by the omicron non-compliant vaccines, BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, was observed.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination against unknown mutant strains that may occur in the future and provide important insights into vaccination strategies.

COVID-19 vaccine adverse events: Evaluating the pathophysiology with an emphasis on sulfur metabolism and endotheliopathy

In this narrative review, we assess the pathophysiology of severe adverse events that presented after vaccination with DNA and mRNA vaccines against COVID-19. The focus is on the perspective of an undersulfated and degraded glycocalyx, considering its impact on immunomodulation, inflammatory responses, coagulation and oxidative stress. The paper explores various factors that lead to glutathione and inorganic sulfate depletion and their subsequent effect on glycocalyx sulfation and other metabolites, including hormones. Components of COVID-19 vaccines, such as DNA and mRNA material, spike protein antigen and lipid nanoparticles, are involved in possible cytotoxic effects. The common thread connecting these adverse events is endotheliopathy or glycocalyx degradation, caused by depleted glutathione and inorganic sulfate levels, shear stress from circulating nanoparticles, aggregation and formation of protein coronas; leading to imbalanced immune responses and chronic release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, ultimately resulting in oxidative stress and systemic inflammatory response syndrome. By understanding the underlying pathophysiology of severe adverse events, better treatment options can be explored.

Science-based exit from stringent countermeasures against COVID-19: Mortality prediction using immune landscape between 2021 and 2022 in Japan

Background

Stringent public health and social measures against COVID-19 infection were implemented to avoid an overwhelming hospital caseload and excessive number of deaths, especially among elderly people. We analyzed population-level immunity and predicted mortality, calculated as the potential number of deaths on a given calendar date in Japan, to develop a science-based exit strategy from stringent control measures.

Methods

Immune proportions were inferred by age group using vaccination coverage data and the estimated number of naturally infected individuals. Immunity against symptomatic illness and death were estimated separately, allowing for inference of the immune fraction that was protected against either COVID-19-related symptomatic infection or death. By multiplying the infection fatality risk by age group for the immune fraction, the potential number of deaths was obtained.

Results

Accounting for a second and third dose of messenger RNA vaccine in the present-day population, approximately 155,000 potential deaths would be expected among people aged ≥ 60 years if all individuals were infected at the very end of 2022. A fourth dose (i.e., second booster) with a coverage identical to that of the third dose could reduce mortality by 60%. In all examined settings, the largest number of deaths occurred among people aged 80 years and older.

Conclusions

Our estimates can help policymakers understand the mortality impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in a quantitative manner and the critical importance of timely immunization so as to assist in decision making.

Kinetics of humoral and cellular immune responses 5 months post-COVID-19 booster dose by immune response groups at the peak immunity phase: An observational historical cohort study using the Fukushima vaccination community survey

Background

Understanding the waning of immunity after booster vaccinations is important to identify which immune-low populations should be prioritized.

Methods

We investigated longitudinal cellular and humoral immunity after the third vaccine dose in both high- and low-cellular and humoral immunity groups at the peak immunity phase after the booster vaccination in a large community-based cohort. Blood samples were collected from 1045 participants at peak (T1: median 54 days post-third dose) and decay (T2: median 145 days post-third dose) phases to assess IgG(S), neutralizing activity, and ELISpot responses. Participants were categorized into high/low ELISpot/IgG(S) groups at T1. Cellular and humoral responses were tracked for approximately five months after the third vaccination.

Results

In total, 983 participants were included in the cohort. IgG(S) geometric mean fold change between timepoints revealed greater waning in the >79 years age group (T2/T1 fold change: 0.27) and higher IgG(S) fold change in the low-ELISpot group at T1 (T2/T1 fold change: 0.32-0.33) than in the other groups, although ELISpot geometric mean remained stable.

Conclusions

Antibody level of those who did not respond well to third dose vaccination waned rapidly than those who responded well. Evidence-based vaccine strategies are essential in preventing potential health issues caused by vaccines, including side-effects.

Long-term antibody response after the third dose of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in MASLD patients

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients are at an elevated risk of developing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of this study was to assess antibody responses and safety profiles six months after the third dose of the inactivated acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine in MASLD patients.

METHODS

This study included MASLD patients and healthy volunteers without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Blood samples were collected six months after receiving the third dose of the inactivated vaccine to measure the levels of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) and anti-spike IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

A total of 335 participants (214 MASLD patients and 121 healthy volunteers) were enrolled. The seroprevalence of NAb was 61.7% (132 of 214) in MASLD patients and 74.4% (90 of 121) in healthy volunteers, which was a significant difference (p = 0.018). Statistically significant differences in IgG seroprevalence were also observed between MASLD patients and healthy volunteers (p = 0.004). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the severity of MASLD (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.32-6.68; p = 0.009) and age (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; p = 0.004) were independent risk factors for NAb negativity in MASLD patients. Moderate/severe MASLD patients had a lower NAb seroprevalence than mild MASLD patients (45.0% vs. 65.5%, p = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

Lower antibody responses were observed in MASLD patients six months after their third dose of the inactivated vaccine than in healthy volunteers, providing further assistance in monitoring patients who are more vulnerable to hypo-responsiveness to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

Low booster uptake in cancer patients despite health benefits

Patients with cancer are at increased risk of death from COVID-19 and have reduced immune responses to SARS-CoV2 vaccines, necessitating regular boosters. We performed comprehensive chart reviews, surveys of patients attitudes, serology for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and T cell receptor (TCR) β sequencing for cellular responses on a cohort of 982 cancer patients receiving active cancer therapy accrued between November-3-2020 and Mar-31-2023. We found that 92 · 3% of patients received the primer vaccine, 70 · 8% received one monovalent booster, but only 30 · 1% received a bivalent booster. Booster uptake was lower under age 50, and among African American or Hispanic patients. Nearly all patients seroconverted after 2+ booster vaccinations (>99%) and improved cellular responses, demonstrating that repeated boosters could overcome poor response to vaccination. Receipt of booster vaccinations was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0 · 61, p = 0 · 024). Booster uptake in high-risk cancer patients remains low and strategies to encourage booster uptake are needed.

Evaluation of Vaccine Strategies among Healthcare Workers during COVID-19 Omicron Outbreak in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of various SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and compare their protective effects against COVID-19 among healthcare workers (HCWs) during the Omicron outbreak in Taiwan.

METHODS

Conducted from March 2021 to July 2023, this prospective observational study included healthy HCWs without prior COVID-19 immunization. Participants chose between adenovirus-vectored (AstraZeneca), mRNA (Moderna, BioNTech-Pfizer), and protein-based (Medigen, Novavax) vaccines. Blood samples were taken at multiple points to measure neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and adverse events (AEs) were recorded via questionnaires.

RESULTS

Of 710 HCWs, 668 (94.1%) completed three doses, and 290 (40.8%) received a fourth dose during the Omicron outbreak. AEs were more common with AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines, while Medigen caused fewer AEs. Initial nAb titers were highest with Moderna but waned over time regardless of the vaccine. Booster doses significantly increased nAb titers, with the highest levels observed in Moderna BA1 recipients. The fourth dose significantly reduced COVID-19 incidence, with Moderna BA1 being the most effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Regular booster doses, especially with mRNA and adjuvant-protein vaccines, effectively enhance nAb levels and reduce infection rates, providing critical protection for frontline HCWs during variant outbreaks.

Ipsilateral or contralateral boosting of mice with mRNA vaccines confers equivalent immunity and protection against a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain

Boosting with mRNA vaccines encoding variant-matched spike proteins has been implemented to mitigate their reduced efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Nonetheless, in humans, it remains unclear whether boosting in the ipsilateral or contralateral arm with respect to the priming doses impacts immunity and protection. Here, we boosted K18-hACE2 mice with either monovalent mRNA-1273 (Wuhan-1 spike) or bivalent mRNA-1273.214 (Wuhan-1 + BA.1 spike) vaccine in the ipsilateral or contralateral leg after a two-dose priming series with mRNA-1273. Boosting in the ipsilateral or contralateral leg elicited equivalent levels of serum IgG and neutralizing antibody responses against Wuhan-1 and BA.1. While contralateral boosting with mRNA vaccines resulted in the expansion of spike-specific B and T cells beyond the ipsilateral draining lymph node (DLN) to the contralateral DLN, administration of a third mRNA vaccine dose at either site resulted in similar levels of antigen-specific germinal center B cells, plasmablasts/plasma cells, T follicular helper cells, and CD8+ T cells in the DLNs and the spleen. Furthermore, ipsilateral and contralateral boosting with mRNA-1273 or mRNA-1273.214 vaccines conferred similar homologous or heterologous immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 virus challenge with equivalent reductions in viral RNA and infectious virus in the nasal turbinates and lungs. Collectively, our data show limited differences in B and T cell immune responses after ipsilateral and contralateral site boosting by mRNA vaccines that do not substantively impact protection against an Omicron strain.IMPORTANCESequential boosting with mRNA vaccines has been an effective strategy to overcome waning immunity and neutralization escape by emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, it remains unclear how the site of boosting relative to the primary vaccination series shapes optimal immune responses or breadth of protection against variants. In K18-hACE2 transgenic mice, we observed that intramuscular boosting with historical monovalent or variant-matched bivalent vaccines in the ipsilateral or contralateral limb elicited comparable levels of serum spike-specific antibody and antigen-specific B and T cell responses. Moreover, boosting on either side conferred equivalent protection against a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron challenge strain. Our data in mice suggest that the site of intramuscular boosting with an mRNA vaccine does not substantially impact immunity or protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines: unveiling dynamic epigenetic regulation of host immunity

Background

COVID-19 vaccines are crucial for reducing the threat and burden of the pandemic on global public health, yet the epigenetic, especially RNA editing in response to the vaccines remains unelucidated.

Results

Our current study performed an epitranscriptomic analysis of RNA-Seq data of 260 blood samples from 102 healthy and SARS-CoV-2 naïve individuals receiving different doses of the COVID-19 vaccine and revealed dynamic, transcriptome-wide adenosine to inosine (A-to-I) RNA editing changes in response to COVID-19 vaccines (RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines). 5592 differential RNA editing (DRE) sites in 1820 genes were identified, with most of them showing up-regulated RNA editing and correlated with increased expression of edited genes. These deferentially edited genes were primarily involved in immune- and virus-related gene functions and pathways. Differential ADAR expression probably contributed to RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines. One of the most significant DRE in RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines was in apolipoprotein L6 (APOL6) 3' UTR, which positively correlated with its up-regulated expression. In addition, recoded key antiviral and immune-related proteins such as IFI30 and GBP1 recoded by missense editing was observed as an essential component of RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines. Furthermore, both RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines and its functions dynamically depended on the number of vaccine doses.

Conclusion

Our results thus underscored the potential impact of blood RNA editing in response to COVID-19 vaccines on the host's molecular immune system.

Assessing the Impact of Primary-Series Infection and Booster Vaccination on Protection against Omicron in Hong Kong: A Population-Based Observational Study

This study aimed to assess the real-world effectiveness of vaccines and hybrid immunity in preventing infections during the Omicron prevalent period in Hong Kong. This study analyzed vaccination records and COVID-19 confirmed case records from 1 January 2022 to 28 January 2023 and included a total of 7,165,862 individuals with vaccination or infection records. This study found that an additional vaccine dose offered increased protection against Omicron BA.1/2 and BA.4 infections for individuals without prior infections in general. Hybrid immunity, acquired through vaccination and natural infection, was found to be significantly stronger than that provided by vaccines alone. The Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine, introduced in December 2022, was associated with a lower risk of BA.4 infection when administered as a booster dose after three doses of CoronaVac. However, individuals with four doses of the CoronaVac vaccine did not exhibit a significantly lower risk of infection compared to those with three doses during the BA.4 dominant period. This study highlights the importance of promoting booster shot uptake and encouraging vaccination among those who have recovered from COVID-19 infections. The potential immune imprinting effect associated with the Comirnaty and CoronaVac vaccine underscores the need for continued surveillance and research to optimize vaccination strategies for emerging variants.

Development of antibody levels and subsequent decline in individuals with vaccine induced and hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to compare antibody trajectories among individuals with SARS-CoV-2 hybrid and vaccine-induced immunity.

METHODS

Danish adults receiving three doses of BTN162b2 or mRNA-1237 were included prior to first vaccination (Day 0). SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG levels were assessed before each vaccine dose, at Day 90, Day 180, 28 days after 3rd vaccination (Day 251), Day 365, and prior to 4th vaccination (Day 535). SARS-CoV-2 PCR results were extracted from the national microbiology database. Mixed-effect multivariable linear regression investigated the impact of hybrid-immunity (stratified into 4 groups: no hybrid immunity, PCR+ prior to 3rd dose, PCR+ after 3rd dose and before Day 365, PCR+ after Day 365) on anti-spike IgG trajectories.

RESULTS

A total of 4,936 individuals were included, 47% developed hybrid-immunity. Anti-spike IgG increases were observed in all groups at Day 251, with the highest levels in those PCR+ prior to 3rd dose (Geometric Mean; 535,647AU/mL vs. 374,665AU/mL with no hybrid-immunity, P<0.0001). Further increases were observed in participants who developed hybrid immunity after their 3rd dose. Anti-spike IgG levels declined from Day 251-535 in individuals without hybrid-immunity and in those who developed hybrid-immunity prior to their 3rd dose, with lower rate of decline in those with hybrid-immunity.

CONCLUSION

Hybrid-immunity results in higher and more durable antibody trajectories in vaccinated individuals.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Studies against Symptomatic and Severe Outcomes during the Omicron Period in Four Countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies provide real-world evidence to monitor vaccine performance and inform policy. The WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean supported a regional study to assess the VE of COVID-19 vaccines against different clinical outcomes in four countries between June 2021 and August 2023. Health worker cohort studies were conducted in 2707 health workers in Egypt and Pakistan, of whom 171 experienced symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Test-negative design case-control studies were conducted in Iran and Jordan in 4017 severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) patients (2347 controls and 1670 cases) during the Omicron variant dominant period. VE estimates were calculated for each study and pooled by study design for several vaccine types (BBIBP-CorV, AZD1222, BNT162b2, and mRNA-1273, among others). Among health workers, VE against symptomatic infection of a complete primary series could only be computed compared to partial vaccination, suggesting a benefit of providing an additional dose of mRNA vaccines (VE: 88.9%, 95%CI: 15.3-98.6%), while results were inconclusive for other vaccine products. Among SARI patients, VE against hospitalization of a complete primary series with any vaccine compared to non-vaccinated was 20.9% (95%CI: 4.5-34.5%). Effectiveness estimates for individual vaccines, booster doses, and secondary outcomes (intensive care unit admission and death) were inconclusive. Future VE studies will need to address challenges in both design and analysis when conducted late during a pandemic and will be able to utilize the strengthened capacities in countries.

Impacts of COVID-19 vaccine boosters on clinical outcomes associated with the Omicron variant in China: A cross-sectional survey

Objective

To investigate the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine boosters during China's Omicron wave.

Methods

In January 2023, we surveyed Shenzhen, China residents via online questionnaires to investigate their COVID-19 symptoms and vaccination history. The outcomes of interest included fever, other COVID-19-related symptoms, severity of symptoms, whether early onset (before December 23, 2022) and duration. Respondents were categorized as no booster, one booster 6mo ago, one booster within 6mo, or two boosters based on dose count and vaccination timing. We used multivariable logistic regressions and Tobit models to assess COVID-19 vaccine booster impacts.

Results

Compared to the no booster group, two booster recipients had a lower fever risk (OR = 0.35, 95 %CI = 0.16-0.76) but not lower risks of COVID-19-related symptoms (OR = 0.74, 95 %CI = 0.26-2.06) and self-reported severe symptoms (OR = 0.47, 95 %CI = 0.19-1.15). Nor did the two booster recipients had a shorter illness duration (marginal effect = -0.79 days, 95 %CI = -1.65-0.07) and a lower risk of symptom onset delay (OR = 0.48, 95 %CI = 0.19-1.23). Compared to the no booster group, both one booster within six months (OR = 2.17, 95 %CI = 1.34-3.52) and one booster six months ago (OR = 1.30, 95 %CI = 0.92-1.82) did not reduce the risks of fever and symptoms (one booster within six months: OR = 1.57, 95 %CI = 0.84-2.90; one booster six months ago: OR = 1.23, 95 %CI = 0.79-1.93). Regardless of timing, one booster did not reduce illness duration (within six months: marginal effect = 0.25 days, 95 %CI = -0.20-0.70; six months ago: marginal effect = 0.27 days, 95 %CI = -0.08-0.62). However, receiving one booster within six months delayed symptom onset (OR = 0.54, 95 %CI = 0.34-0.86), while one booster six months ago did not (OR = 1.03, 95 %CI = 0.74-1.44).

Conclusions

Receiving two booster doses reduced the onset of fever during the Omicron outbreak in mainland China.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 vaccination for elderly people in Japan

BACKGROUND

NVX-CoV2373 is one of the vaccines marketed for COVID-19 prevention in Japan. Information on its cost-effectiveness is important for making well-informed decisions on the future of Japan's COVID-19 vaccination programme from the public healthcare payer's perspective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NVX-CoV2373 vaccination in the elderly Japanese population.

METHODS

Two analysis populations that included elderly Japanese individuals (aged ≥ 65 years) were defined in this study: those who had not received a COVID-19 vaccine or had not completed a primary vaccination series (i.e., first two vaccinations) with an approved COVID-19 vaccine (analysis population 1), and those who had received two primary vaccinations with an approved COVID-19 vaccine (analysis population 2). A literature-informed Markov model for each analysis population was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 against no vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 from the public healthcare payer's perspective as a base-case analysis and from the societal perspective as a scenario analysis. Vaccine efficacy was estimated from a phase 3 study of NVX-CoV2373 (EudraCT number: 2020-004123-16). Cost-effectiveness was assessed using a willingness-to-pay threshold of Japanese yen (JPY) 5 million per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed.

RESULTS

For analysis population 1, NVX-CoV2373 primary and booster vaccinations would reduce costs by JPY 37,647 and prolong QALYs by 0.01601. Therefore, NVX-CoV2373 primary and booster vaccinations were considered to be dominant over no vaccination. For analysis population 2, an NVX-CoV2373 booster vaccination would increase costs by JPY 5010 and prolong QALYs by 0.00550, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of JPY 910,566 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses suggest that a vaccination strategy with NVX-CoV2373 is cost-effective in the elderly population (aged ≥ 65 years) of Japan.

Impact of booster vaccination interval on SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death

OBJECTIVES

We investigated how booster interval affects the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19-related hospitalization and death in different age groups.

METHODS

We collected data on booster receipts and Covid-19 outcomes between September 22, 2021 and February 9, 2023 for 5,769,205 North Carolina residents ≥12 years of age who had completed their primary vaccination series. We related Covid-19 outcomes to baseline characteristics and booster doses through Cox regression models.

RESULTS

For adults ≥65 years of age, boosting every 9 months was associated with proportionate reductions (compared with no boosting) of 18.9% (95% CI, 18.5-19.4) in the cumulative frequency of infection, 37.8% (95% CI, 35.3-40.3) in the cumulative risk of hospitalization or death, and 40.9% (95% CI, 37.2-44.7) in the cumulative risk of death at 2 years after completion of primary vaccination. The reductions were lower by boosting every 12 months and higher by boosting every 6 months. The reductions were smaller for individuals 12-64 years of age.

CONCLUSION

Boosting at a shorter interval was associated with a greater reduction in Covid-19 outcomes, especially hospitalization and death. Frequent boosting conferred greater benefits for individuals aged ≥65 than for individuals aged 12-64.

Implementation of an Approach to Equitable Allocation of SARS-CoV-2 Monoclonal Antibodies for Preexposure Prophylaxis: Experience From a Single Medical Center

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies for preexposure prophylaxis (SMA-PrEP) offered patients who were immunocompromised another option for protection. However, SMA-PrEP posed administrative, operational, and ethical challenges for health care facilities, resulting in few patients receiving them. Although the first SMA-PrEP medication, tixagevimab and cilgavimab, had its authorization revoked due to compromised in vitro efficacy, new SMA-PrEP medications are currently completing clinical trials. This article provides an operational framework for administrative organization, patient identification and prioritization, equitable medication allocation, medication ordering and administration, and patient tracking.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study evaluating our hospital's SMA-PrEP administration strategy was performed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with receipt of SMA-PrEP.

Results

Despite the barriers in administering this medication and the scarcity of resources, our hospital was able to administer at least 1 dose of SMA-PrEP to 1359 of 5902 (23.0%) eligible patients. Even with the steps taken to promote equitable allocation, multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that there were still differences by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. As compared with patients who identified as Black, patients who identified as White (odds ratio [OR], 1.85; 95% CI, 1.46-2.33), Asian (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.03-2.46), and Hispanic (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.02-2.44) were more likely to receive SMA-PrEP. When compared with patients with low socioeconomic status, patients with high socioeconomic status (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05-1.78) were more likely to be allocated SMA-PrEP.

Conclusions

Despite efforts to mitigate health care disparities, differences by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status still arose in patients receiving SMA-PrEP.

Association of Prior COVID-19 Infection with Risk of Breakthrough Infection Following Vaccination: A Cohort Study in Isfahan, Iran

Background

Many people worldwide have developed a combination of natural and vaccine-induced immunity to COVID-19. This study investigated whether exposure to SARS-CoV-2 before full vaccination promotes protection against a breakthrough infection.

Methods

We studied a total of 2,902,545 people in the Isfahan COVID-19 Registry. All the participants had received two doses of either Sinopharm BIBP, ChAdOx1-nCoV-19, Gam-COVID-Vac, or BIV1-CovIran vaccines. A cohort study examined the association between prior COVID-19 infection and the risk of a breakthrough infection for each vaccine. Cohorts in each pair were matched by gender, age group, calendar week of the first dose, the interval between the first and second doses, and the proportion of healthcare workers. The probable virus variant for the previous infections was also considered. Each individual's follow-up started 14 days after their second vaccine dose until either the end of the study censoring date, occurrence of a COVID-19 infection, or death. The breakthrough infection risk was compared between each cohort pair by using the hazard ratio (HR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR).

Results

Total breakthrough HRs (95% confidence interval) (previously infected over infection-naïve matched cohort) were 0.36 (0.23-0.55), 0.35 (0.32-0.40), 0.37 (0.30-0.46), and 0.43 (0.32-0.56) for the BIV1-CovIran, Sinopharm BIBP, Gam-COVID-Vac, and ChAdOx1-nCoV-19 vaccine groups, respectively. The breakthrough infection IRRs were approximately similar to the total HRs mentioned above.

Conclusion

Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection conferred additive immunity against breakthrough after vaccination, no matter which vaccine brand was injected. Such a result could guide health authorities to codify low-cost high-benefit vaccination protocols and protect the community's well-being.

Safety, Immunogenicity, and Effectiveness of Chinese-Made COVID-19 Vaccines in the Real World: An Interim Report of a Living Systematic Review

Background: Several COVID-19 vaccines were developed and approved in China. Of these, the BIBB-CorV and CoronaVac inactivated whole-virion vaccines were widely distributed in China and developing countries. However, the performance of the two vaccines in the real world has not been summarized. Methods: A living systematic review based on findings from ongoing post-licensure studies was conducted, applying standardized algorithms. Articles published between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2022 in English and Chinese were searched for in Medline, Embase, WanFang Data, medRxiv, bioRxiv, arXiv, SSRN, and Research Square, using SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, and vaccine as the MeSH terms. Studies with estimates of safety, immunogenicity, and effectiveness from receiving the BIBB-CorV or CoronaVac vaccine that met the predefined screening criteria underwent a full-text review. The Joanna Briggs Institute's Critical Appraisal Checklist and the Cochrane risk of bias were used for assessment of the quality. A random-effects meta-regression model was applied to identify the potential impact factors on the vaccines' effectiveness. Results: In total, 32578 articles were identified, of these, 770 studies underwent a full-text review. Eventually, 213 studies were included. The pooled occurrence of solicited and unsolicited adverse events after any dose of either vaccine varied between 10% and 40%. The top five commonly reported rare adverse events were immunization stress-related responses (211 cases, 50.0%), cutaneous responses (43 cases, 10.2%), acute neurological syndrome (39 cases, 9.2%), anaphylaxis (17 cases, 4.0%), and acute stroke (16 cases, 3.8%). The majority (83.3%) recovered or were relieved within several days. The peak neutralization titers against the ancestral strain was found within 1 month after the completion of the primary series of either vaccine, with a GMT (geometric mean titer) of 43.7 (95% CI: 23.2-82.4), followed by a dramatic decrease within 3 months. At Month 12, the GMT was 4.1 (95% CI: 3.8-4.4). Homologous boosting could restore humoral immunity, while heterologous boosting elicited around sixfold higher neutralization titers in comparison with homologous boosting. The effectiveness of receiving either vaccine against death and severe disease was around 85% for both shortly after the primary series. At Month 12, the protection against death did not decline, while the protection against severe disease decreased to ~75%. Conclusions: Both the BIBP-CorV and CoronaVac inactivated vaccines are safe. Sustained vaccine effectiveness against death was determined 12 months after the primary series, although protection against severe disease decreased slightly over time. A booster dose could strengthen the waning effectiveness; however, the duration of the incremental effectiveness and the additional benefit provided by a heterologous booster need to be studied.

The Protective Efficacy of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Candidate B.1.351V against Several Variant Challenges in K18-hACE2 Mice

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) with increased transmissibility and partial resistance to neutralization by antibodies has been observed globally. There is an urgent need for an effective vaccine to combat these variants. Our study demonstrated that the B.1.351 variant inactivated vaccine candidate (B.1.351V) generated strong binding and neutralizing antibody responses in BALB/c mice against the B.1.351 virus and other SARS-CoV-2 variants after two doses within 28 days. Immunized K18-hACE2 mice also exhibited elevated levels of live virus-neutralizing antibodies against various SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Following infection with these viruses, K18-hACE2 mice displayed a stable body weight, a high survival rate, minimal virus copies in lung tissue, and no lung damage compared to the control group. These findings indicate that B.1.351V offered protection against infection with multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants in mice, providing insights for the development of a vaccine targeting SARS-CoV-2 VOCs for human use.

Duration of effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine in Japan: a retrospective cohort study using large-scale population-based registry data

BACKGROUND

Most evidence of the waning of vaccine effectiveness is limited to a relatively short period after vaccination.

METHODS

Data obtained from a linked database of healthcare administrative claims and vaccination records maintained by the municipality of a city in the Kanto region of Japan were used in this study. The study period extended from April 1, 2020, to December 31, 2022. The duration of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine was analyzed using a time-dependent piecewise Cox proportional hazard model using the age, sex and history of cancer, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease as covariates.

RESULTS

Among the 174,757 eligible individuals, 14,416 (8.3%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 and 936 (0.54%) were hospitalized for COVID-19. Multivariate analysis based on the time-dependent Cox regression model with reference of non-vaccine group revealed a lower incidence of COVID-19 in the one-dose group (hazard ratio, 0.76 [95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.91]), two-dose (0.89 [0.85-0.93]), three-dose (0.80 [0.76-0.85]), four-dose (0.93 [0.88-1.00]), and five-dose (0.72 [0.62-0.84]) groups. A lower incidence of COVID-19-related hospitalization was observed in the one-dose group (0.42 [0.21-0.81]), two-dose (0.44 [0.35-0.56]), three-dose (0.38 [0.30-0.47]), four-dose (0.20 [0.14-0.28]), and five-dose (0.11 [0.014-0.86]) groups. Multivariable analyses based on the time-dependent piecewise Cox proportional hazard model with reference of non-vaccine group revealed significant preventive effects of the vaccine for 4 months for the incidence of COVID-19 and ≥ 6 months for hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine effectiveness showed gradual attenuation with time after vaccination; however, protective effects against the incidence of COVID-19 and hospitalization were maintained for 4 months and ≥ 6 months, respectively. These results may aid in formulating routine vaccination plans after the COVID-19 pandemic.

SIRS epidemics with individual heterogeneity of immunity waning

In the current paper we analyse an extended SIRS epidemic model in which immunity at the individual level wanes gradually at exponential rate, but where the waning rate may differ between individuals, for instance as an effect of differences in immune systems. The model also includes vaccination schemes aimed to reach and maintain herd immunity. We consider both the informed situation where the individual waning parameters are known, thus allowing selection of vaccinees being based on both time since last vaccination as well as on the individual waning rate, and the more likely uninformed situation where individual waning parameters are unobserved, thus only allowing vaccination schemes to depend on time since last vaccination. The optimal vaccination policies for both the informed and uniformed heterogeneous situation are derived and compared with the homogeneous waning model (meaning all individuals have the same immunity waning rate), as well as to the classic SIRS model where immunity at the individual level drops from complete immunity to complete susceptibility in one leap. It is shown that the classic SIRS model requires least vaccines, followed by the SIRS with homogeneous gradual waning, followed by the informed situation for the model with heterogeneous gradual waning. The situation requiring most vaccines for herd immunity is the most likely scenario, that immunity wanes gradually with unobserved individual heterogeneity. For parameter values chosen to mimic COVID-19 and assuming perfect initial immunity and cumulative immunity of 12 months, the classic homogeneous SIRS epidemic suggests that vaccinating individuals every 15 months is sufficient to reach and maintain herd immunity, whereas the uninformed case for exponential waning with rate heterogeneity corresponding to a coefficient of variation being 0.5, requires that individuals instead need to be vaccinated every 4.4 months.

COVID-19 point-of-care tests can identify low-antibody individuals: In-depth immunoanalysis of boosting benefits in a healthy cohort

The recommended COVID-19 booster vaccine uptake is low. At-home lateral flow assay (LFA) antigen tests are widely accepted for detecting infection during the pandemic. Here, we present the feasibility and potential benefits of using LFA-based antibody tests as a means for individuals to detect inadequate immunity and make informed decisions about COVID-19 booster immunization. In a health care provider cohort, we investigated the changes in the breadth and depth of humoral and T cell immune responses following mRNA vaccination and boosting in LFA-positive and LFA-negative antibody groups. We show that negative LFA antibody tests closely reflect the lack of functional humoral immunity observed in a battery of sophisticated immune assays, while positive results do not necessarily reflect adequate immunity. After booster vaccination, both groups gain depth and breadth of systemic antibodies against evolving SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses. Our findings show that LFA-based antibody tests can alert individuals about inadequate immunity against COVID-19, thereby increasing booster shots and promoting herd immunity.

Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

Government responses to COVID-19 are among the most globally impactful events of the 21st century. The extent to which responses-such as school closures-were associated with changes in COVID-19 outcomes remains unsettled. Multiverse analyses offer a systematic approach to testing a large range of models. We used daily data on 16 government responses in 181 countries in 2020-2021, and 4 outcomes-cases, infections, COVID-19 deaths, and all-cause excess deaths-to construct 99,736 analytic models. Among those, 42% suggest outcomes improved following more stringent responses ("helpful"). No subanalysis (e.g. limited to cases as outcome) demonstrated a preponderance of helpful or unhelpful associations. Among the 14 associations with P values < 1 × 10-30, 5 were helpful and 9 unhelpful. In summary, we find no patterns in the overall set of models that suggests a clear relationship between COVID-19 government responses and outcomes. Strong claims about government responses' impacts on COVID-19 may lack empirical support.

Country-specific determinants for COVID-19 case fatality rate and response strategies from a global perspective: an interpretable machine learning framework

BACKGROUND

There are significant geographic inequities in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs), and comprehensive understanding its country-level determinants in a global perspective is necessary. This study aims to quantify the country-specific risk of COVID-19 CFR and propose tailored response strategies, including vaccination strategies, in 156 countries.

METHODS

Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in COVID-19 CFR was identified using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) including 35 factors from seven dimensions in 156 countries from 28 January, 2020 to 31 January, 2022. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to further clarify the clustering of countries by the key factors driving CFR and the effect of concurrent risk factors for each country. Increases in vaccination rates was simulated to illustrate the reduction of CFR in different classes of countries.

FINDINGS

Overall COVID-19 CFRs varied across countries from 28 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 31 2022, ranging from 68 to 6373 per 100,000 population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the determinants of CFRs first changed from health conditions to universal health coverage, and then to a multifactorial mixed effect dominated by vaccination. In the Omicron period, countries were divided into five classes according to risk determinants. Low vaccination-driven class (70 countries) mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and include the majority of low-income countries (95.7%) with many concurrent risk factors. Aging-driven class (26 countries) mainly distributed in high-income European countries. High disease burden-driven class (32 countries) mainly distributed in Asia and North America. Low GDP-driven class (14 countries) are scattered across continents. Simulating a 5% increase in vaccination rate resulted in CFR reductions of 31.2% and 15.0% for the low vaccination-driven class and the high disease burden-driven class, respectively, with greater CFR reductions for countries with high overall risk (SHAP value > 0.1), but only 3.1% for the ageing-driven class.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from this study suggests that geographic inequities in COVID-19 CFR is jointly determined by key and concurrent risks, and achieving a decreasing COVID-19 CFR requires more than increasing vaccination coverage, but rather targeted intervention strategies based on country-specific risks.

Functional antibody responses targeting the Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB.1.5 in elderly nursing home residents following Wuhan-Hu-1-based mRNA booster vaccination

The immune effector mechanisms involved in protecting against severe COVID-19 infection in elderly nursing home residents following vaccination or natural infection are not well understood. Here, we measured SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S)-directed functional antibody responses, including neutralizing antibodies (NtAb) and antibody Fc-mediated NK cell activity (degranulation and IFNγ production), against the Wuhan-Hu-1, BA.4/5 (for NtAb), and Omicron XBB.1.5 variants in elderly nursing home residents (n = 39; median age, 91 years) before and following a third (pre- and post-3D) and a fourth (pre- and post-4D) mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose. Both 3D and 4D boosted NtAb levels against both (sub)variants. Likewise, 3D and 4D increased the ability of sera to trigger both LAMP1- and IFNγ-producing NK cells, in particular against XBB.1.5. In contrast to NtAb titres, the frequencies of LAMP1- and IFNγ-producing NK cells activated by antibodies binding to Wuhan-Hu-1 and Omicron XBB.1.5 S were comparable at all testing times. Stronger functional antibody responses were observed in vaccine-experienced participants compared to vaccine-naïve at some testing times. These findings can contribute to identifying a reliable correlate of protection in elderly nursing home residents against severe COVID-19 and inform future vaccine strategies in this population group.

Mutational dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: Impact on future COVID-19 vaccine strategies

The rapid emergence of multiple strains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has sparked profound concerns regarding the ongoing evolution of the virus and its potential impact on global health. Classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as variants of concern (VOC), these strains exhibit heightened transmissibility and pathogenicity, posing significant challenges to existing vaccine strategies. Despite widespread vaccination efforts, the continual evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants presents a formidable obstacle to achieving herd immunity. Of particular concern is the coronavirus spike (S) protein, a pivotal viral surface protein crucial for host cell entry and infectivity. Mutations within the S protein have been shown to enhance transmissibility and confer resistance to antibody-mediated neutralization, undermining the efficacy of traditional vaccine platforms. Moreover, the S protein undergoes rapid molecular evolution under selective immune pressure, leading to the emergence of diverse variants with distinct mutation profiles. This review underscores the urgent need for vigilance and adaptation in vaccine development efforts to combat the evolving landscape of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and ensure the long-term effectiveness of global immunization campaigns.

Immunologic responses to the third and fourth doses of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines in cell therapy recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies have provided evidence of suboptimal or poor immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in recipients of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and chimeric antigen receptor-T (CAR-T) cell therapy compared to healthy individuals. Given the dynamic nature of SARS-CoV2, characterized by the emergence of many viral variations throughout the general population, there is ongoing discussion regarding the optimal quantity and frequency of additional doses required to sustain protection against SARS-CoV2 especially in this susceptible population. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the immune responses of HSCT and CAR-T cell therapy recipients to additional doses of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, the study involved a comprehensive search across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science Core Collection, Embase, and Cochrane Biorxiv and medRxiv, focusing on the serological responses to the third and fourth vaccine doses in HSCT and CAR-T cell patients.

RESULTS

This study included 32 papers, with 31 qualifying for the meta-analysis. Results showed that after the third dose, the seroconversion rate in HSCT and CAR-T cell therapy recipients who didn't respond to the second dose was 46.10 and 17.26%, respectively. Following the fourth dose, HSCT patients had a seroconversion rate of 27.23%. Moreover, post-third-dose seropositivity rates were 87.14% for HSCT and 32.96% for CAR-T cell therapy recipients. Additionally, the seropositive response to the fourth dose in the HSCT group was 90.04%.

CONCLUSION

While a significant portion of HSCT recipients developed antibodies after additional vaccinations, only a minority of CAR-T cell therapy patients showed a similar response. This suggests that alternative vaccination strategies are needed to protect these vulnerable groups effectively. Moreover, few studies have reported cellular responses to additional SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations in these patients. Further studies evaluating cellular responses are required to determine a more precise assessment of immunogenicity strength against SARS-CoV-2 after additional doses.

Follow-Up and Comparative Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 IgA, IgG, Neutralizing, and Total Antibody Responses After BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 Heterologous Booster Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Priming with ChAdOx1 followed by heterologous boosting is considered in several countries. Nevertheless, analyses comparing the immunogenicity of heterologous booster to homologous primary vaccination regimens and natural infection are lacking. In this study, we aimed to conduct a comparative assessment of the immunogenicity between homologous primary vaccination regimens and heterologous prime-boost vaccination using BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273.

METHODS

We matched vaccinated naïve (VN) individuals (n = 673) with partial vaccination (n = 64), primary vaccination (n = 590), and primary series plus mRNA vaccine heterologous booster (n = 19) with unvaccinated naturally infected (NI) individuals with a documented primary SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 206). We measured the levels of neutralizing total antibodies (NTAbs), total antibodies (TAbs), anti-S-RBD IgG, and anti-S1 IgA titers.

RESULTS

Homologous primary vaccination with ChAdOx1 not only showed less potent NTAb, TAb, anti-S-RBD IgG, and anti-S1 IgA immune responses compared to primary BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination regimens (p < 0.05) but also showed ~3-fold less anti-S1 IgA response compared to infection-induced immunity (p < 0.001). Nevertheless, a heterologous booster led to an increase of ~12 times in the immune response when compared to two consecutive homologous ChAdOx1 immunizations. Furthermore, correlation analyses revealed that both anti-S-RBD IgG and anti-S1 IgA significantly contributed to virus neutralization among NI individuals, particularly in symptomatic and pauci-symptomatic individuals, whereas among VN individuals, anti-S-RBD IgG was the main contributor to virus neutralization.

CONCLUSION

The results emphasize the potential benefit of using heterologous mRNA boosters to increase antibody levels and neutralizing capacity particularly in patients who received primary vaccination with ChAdOx1.

A virus-like particle candidate vaccine based on CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing technology elicits broad-spectrum protection against SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with frequent mutations has seriously damaged the effectiveness of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine. There is an urgent need to develop a broad-spectrum vaccine while elucidating the underlying immune mechanisms. Here, we developed a SARS-CoV-2 virus-like particles (VLPs) vaccine based on the Canarypox-virus vector (ALVAC-VLPs) using CRISPR/Cas9. Immunization with ALVAC-VLPs showed the effectively induce SARS-CoV-2 specific T and B cell responses to resist the lethal challenge of mouse adaptive strains. Notably, ALVAC-VLPs conferred protection in golden hamsters against SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-Hu-1 (wild-type, WT) and variants (Beta, Delta, Omicron BA.1, and BA.2), as evidenced by the prevention of weight loss, reduction in lung and turbinate tissue damage, and decreased viral load. Further investigation into the mechanism of immune response induced by ALVAC-VLPs revealed that toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) mediates the recruitment of dendritic cells (DCs) to secondary lymphoid organs, thereby initiating follicle assisted T (Tfh) cell differentiation, the proliferation of germinal center (GC) B cells and plasma cell production. These findings demonstrate the immunogenicity and efficacy of the safe ALVAC-VLPs vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 and provide valuable insight into the development of COVID-19 vaccine strategies.

Modeling and predicting individual variation in COVID-19 vaccine-elicited antibody response in the general population

As we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are one of the most important tools in infectious disease control. To date, an unprecedentedly large volume of high-quality data on COVID-19 vaccinations have been accumulated. For preparedness in future pandemics beyond COVID-19, these valuable datasets should be analyzed to best shape an effective vaccination strategy. We are collecting longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, that consists of 2,407 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time courses of the vaccine-elicited antibody response based on mathematical modeling, we first identified basic demographic and health information that contributed to the main features of the antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We showed that these three features of antibody dynamics were partially explained by underlying medical conditions, adverse reactions to vaccinations, and medications, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit an "antibody score", which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used as a basis for identifying individuals with higher or lower antibody titers from basic demographic and health information. The score can be easily calculated by individuals themselves or by medical practitioners. Although the sensitivity of this score is currently not very high, in the future, as more data become available, it has the potential to identify vulnerable populations and encourage them to get booster vaccinations. Our mathematical model can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.

Durability of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 in humans has caused a pandemic of unprecedented dimensions. SARS-CoV-2 is primarily transmitted through respiratory droplets and targets ciliated epithelial cells in the nasal cavity, trachea, and lungs by utilizing the cellular receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The innate immune response, including type I and III interferons, inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1β), innate immune cells (monocytes, DCs, neutrophils, natural killer cells), antibodies (IgG, sIgA, neutralizing antibodies), and adaptive immune cells (B cells, CD8+ and CD4+ T cells) play pivotal roles in mitigating COVID-19 disease. Broad and durable B-cell- and T-cell immunity elicited by infection and vaccination is essential for protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that evade neutralizing antibodies continue to jeopardize vaccine efficacy. In this review, we highlight our understanding the infection- and vaccine-mediated humoral, B and T cell responses, the durability of the immune responses, and how variants continue to threaten the efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.