Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Robust fisheries management strategies under deep uncertainty

Fisheries worldwide face uncertain futures as climate change manifests in environmental effects of hitherto unseen strengths. Developing climate-ready management strategies traditionally requires a good mechanistic understanding of stock response to climate change in order to build projection models for testing different exploitation levels. Unfortunately, model-based projections of fish stocks are severely limited by large uncertainties in the recruitment process, as the required stock-recruitment relationship is usually not well represented by data. An alternative is to shift focus to improving the decision-making process, as postulated by the decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) framework. Robust Decision Making (RDM), a key DMDU concept, aims at identifying management decisions that are robust to a vast range of uncertain scenarios. Here we employ RDM to investigate the capability of North Sea cod to support a sustainable and economically viable fishery under future climate change. We projected the stock under 40,000 combinations of exploitation levels, emission scenarios and stock-recruitment parameterizations and found that model uncertainties and exploitation have similar importance for model outcomes. Our study revealed that no management strategy exists that is fully robust to the uncertainty in relation to model parameterization and future climate change. We instead propose a risk assessment that accounts for the trade-offs between stock conservation and profitability under deep uncertainty.

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

Climate change impacts on oyster aquaculture - Part II: Impact assessment and adaptation measures

The oyster aquaculture sector plays a major role in food security, providing a sustainable way to obtain food and livelihood for coastal and Island nations. Oysters are one of the preferred choices by aquaculturists because of their resilience to harsh climatic conditions. Nonetheless, climate change will continue to pose threats to its culture. Climate-induced hazards such as floods, storms, disease, and invasive species are some of the key factors limiting oyster production globally. A thriving aquaculture industry needs optimal conditions to maximize exploitation. Here, we continue with the review of the impacts of climate change on oyster aquaculture at the global scale, highlighting climate vulnerability assessment. We also propose a framework for modeling oyster responses to future climate scenarios. Furthermore, we explore the health implications of infected oysters on consumer's health. We also identify knowledge gaps and challenges for sustainable oyster production. Additionally, we document mitigation and adaptation measures and future research directions.

Vulnerability of Eastern Tropical Pacific chondrichthyan fish to climate change

Climate change is an environmental emergency threatening species and ecosystems globally. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of anthropogenic heat and 20%-30% of the carbon emissions, resulting in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, changes in ocean stratification and nutrient availability, and more severe extreme events. Given predictions of further changes, there is a critical need to understand how marine species will be affected. Here, we used an integrated risk assessment framework to evaluate the vulnerability of 132 chondrichthyans in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) to the impacts of climate change. Taking a precautionary view, we found that almost a quarter (23%) of the ETP chondrichthyan species evaluated were highly vulnerable to climate change, and much of the rest (76%) were moderately vulnerable. Most of the highly vulnerable species are batoids (77%), and a large proportion (90%) are coastal or pelagic species that use coastal habitats as nurseries. Six species of batoids were highly vulnerable in all three components of the assessment (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). This assessment indicates that coastal species, particularly those relying on inshore nursery areas are the most vulnerable to climate change. Ocean warming, in combination with acidification and potential deoxygenation, will likely have widespread effects on ETP chondrichthyan species, but coastal species may also contend with changes in freshwater inputs, salinity, and sea level rise. This climate-related vulnerability is compounded by other anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing and habitat degradation already occurring in the region. Mitigating the impacts of climate change on ETP chondrichthyans involves a range of approaches that include addressing habitat degradation, sustainability of exploitation, and species-specific actions may be required for species at higher risk. The assessment also highlighted the need to further understand climate change's impacts on key ETP habitats and processes and identified knowledge gaps on ETP chondrichthyan species.

Assessing alternative lake management actions for climate change adaptation

Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty.

Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary resources.

Classification of eco-zones from the factors and processes controlling phytoplankton biomass

Phytoplankton is of utmost importance to the marine ecosystem and, subsequently, to the Blue Economy. This study aims to explain the reasons for variability of phytoplankton by estimating the dependency of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) on various limiting factors using statistics. The global oceans are classified into coherent units that display similar sensitivity to changing parameters and processes using the k-means algorithm. The resulting six clusters are based on the limiting factors (PAR, iron, or nitrate) that modulate Chl-a yield divisions of the oceans, similar to regions of different trophic statuses. The clusters range from the polar and equatorial regions with high nutrient values limited by light, to open oceanic regions in downwelling gyres limited by nutrients. Some clusters also show a high dependency on marine dissolved iron. Further, oceans are also divided into eight clusters based on the processes (stratification, upwelling, topography, and solar insolation) that impact ocean productivity. The study shows that considering temporal variations is crucial for segregating oceans into ecological zones by utilizing correlation of time-series data into classification. Our results provide valuable insights into the regulation of phytoplankton abundance and its variability, which can help in understanding the implications of climate change and other anthropogenic effects on marine biology.

Climate change impact on sub-tropical lakes - Lake Kinneret as a case study

Climate change is anticipated to alter lake ecosystems by affecting water quality, potentially resulting in loss of ecosystem services. Subtropical lakes have high temperatures to begin with and are expected to exhibit higher temperatures all year round which might affect the thermal structure and ecological processes in a different manner than lakes in temperate zones. In this study the ecosystem response of the sub-tropical Lake Kinneret to climate change was explored using lake ecosystem models. Projection reliability was increased by using a weather generator and ensemble modelling, confronting uncertainty of both climate projections and lake models. The study included running two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models over one thousand realizations of two gradual temperature increase scenarios that span over 49 years. Our predictions show that an increase in air temperature would have subtle effects on stratification properties but may result in considerable changes to biogeochemical processes. Water temperature rise would cause a reduction in dissolved oxygen. Both of these changes would produce elevated phosphate and lowered ammonium concentrations. In turn, these changes are predicted to modify the phytoplankton community, expressed chiefly in increased cyanobacteria blooms at the expense of green phytoplankton and dinoflagellates; these changes may culminate in overall reduction of primary production. Identification of these trends would not be possible without the use of many realizations of climate scenarios. The use of ensemble modelling increased prediction reliability and highlighted elements of uncertainty. Though we use Lake Kinneret, the patterns identified most likely indicate processes that are expected in sub-tropical lakes in general.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

Warming and pollution interact to alter energy transfer efficiency, performance and fitness across generations in zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Energy transfer efficiency across different trophic levels, from food to new biomass, can determine population dynamics and food-web function. Here we show that the energy needed to produce a unit of new biomass increases with warming and exposure to bisphenol A (BPA), an endocrine disrupting compound. These environmental effects are at least partially transmitted across generations via DNA methylation. We raised parental (F0) and their offspring (F1) zebrafish (Danio rerio) of two genotypes (DNA methyltransferase 3a knock-out [DNMT3a-/-] and wild type [DNMT3a+/+]) at different temperatures (24 and 30 °C), with and without BPA (0 and 10 μg l-1) to test whether the effects of BPA are i) temperature specific, ii) mediated by DNA methylation, and iii) transmitted across generations even if offspring are not exposed. All experimental factors interacted to influence growth in length and mass, and metabolic rates with the result that wild-type F0 and F1 fish experienced the greatest energetic cost of growth under warm conditions in the presence of BPA. However, this response was not observed in DNMT3a-/- fish, indicating that DNA methylation is at least partly responsible for mediating these effects. Under the same conditions (warm + BPA) wild-type parents had reduced swimming performance, and reduced fecundity, and offspring embryonic survival was reduced significantly; genotype affected these responses significantly. Our results indicate that the conditions that are becoming increasingly common globally - warming and endocrine disrupting compounds from plastic pollution and production - can have detrimental effects on energy transfer efficiency and thereby potentially on food-web structure. These effects can be transmitted across generations even if offspring are not exposed to the pollutant, and are likely to have ramifications for conservation and fisheries.

Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns

Globalization of fishery products is playing a significant role in shaping the harvesting and use of aquatic foods, but a vigorous debate has focused on whether the trade is a driver of the inequitable distribution of aquatic foods. Here, we develop species-level mass balance and trophic level identification datasets for 174 countries and territories to analyze global aquatic food consumption patterns, trade characteristics, and impacts from 1976 to 2019. We find that per capita consumption of aquatic foods has increased significantly at the global scale, but the human aquatic food trophic level (HATL), i.e., the average trophic level of aquatic food items in the human diet, is declining (from 3.42 to 3.18) because of the considerable increase in low-trophic level aquaculture species output relative to that of capture fisheries since 1976. Moreover, our study finds that trade has contributed to increasing the availability and trophic level of aquatic foods in >60% of the world's countries. Trade has also reduced geographic differences in the HATL among countries over recent decades. We suggest that there are important opportunities to widen the current focus on productivity gains and economic outputs to a more equitable global distribution of aquatic foods.

Size-dependence of food intake and mortality interact with temperature and seasonality to drive diversity in fish life histories

Understanding how growth and reproduction will adapt to changing environmental conditions is a fundamental question in evolutionary ecology, but predicting the responses of specific taxa is challenging. Analyses of the physiological effects of climate change upon life history evolution rarely consider alternative hypothesized mechanisms, such as size-dependent foraging and the risk of predation, simultaneously shaping optimal growth patterns. To test for interactions between these mechanisms, we embedded a state-dependent energetic model in an ecosystem size-spectrum to ask whether prey availability (foraging) and risk of predation experienced by individual fish can explain observed diversity in life histories of fishes. We found that asymptotic growth emerged from size-based foraging and reproductive and mortality patterns in the context of ecosystem food web interactions. While more productive ecosystems led to larger body sizes, the effects of temperature on metabolic costs had only small effects on size. To validate our model, we ran it for abiotic scenarios corresponding to the ecological lifestyles of three tuna species, considering environments that included seasonal variation in temperature. We successfully predicted realistic patterns of growth, reproduction, and mortality of all three tuna species. We found that individuals grew larger when environmental conditions varied seasonally, and spawning was restricted to part of the year (corresponding to their migration from temperate to tropical waters). Growing larger was advantageous because foraging and spawning opportunities were seasonally constrained. This mechanism could explain the evolution of gigantism in temperate tunas. Our approach addresses variation in food availability and individual risk as well as metabolic processes and offers a promising approach to understand fish life-history responses to changing ocean conditions.

Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines

Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.

Fish shrinking, energy balance and climate change

A decline in size is increasingly recognised as a major response by ectothermic species to global warming. Mechanisms underlying this phenomenon are poorly understood but could include changes in energy balance of consumers, driven by declines in prey size coupled with increased energy demands due to warming. The sardine Sardina pilchardus is a prime example of animal shrinking, European populations of this planktivorous fish are undergoing profound decreases in body condition and adult size. This is apparently a bottom-up effect coincident with a shift towards increased reliance on smaller planktonic prey. We investigated the hypothesis that foraging on smaller prey would lead to increased rates of energy expenditure by sardines, and that such expenditures would be exacerbated by warming temperature. Using group respirometry we measured rates of energy expenditure indirectly, as oxygen uptake, by captive adult sardines offered food of two different sizes (0.2 or 1.2 mm items) when acclimated to two temperatures (16 °C or 21 °C). Energy expenditure during feeding on small items was tripled at 16 °C and doubled at 21 °C compared to large items, linked to a change in foraging mode between filter feeding on small or direct capture of large. This caused daily energy expenditure to increase by ~10 % at 16 °C and ~40 % at 21 °C on small items, compared to large items at 16 °C. These results support that declines in prey size coupled with warming could influence energy allocation towards life-history traits in wild populations. This bottom-up effect could partially explain the shrinking and declining condition of many small pelagic fish populations and may be contributing to the shrinking of other fish species throughout the marine food web. Understanding how declines in prey size can couple with warming to affect consumers is a crucial element of projecting the consequences for marine fauna of ongoing anthropogenic global change.

Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.

Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on aquatic ecosystem - A review

All living things depend on their natural environment, either directly or indirectly, for their high quality of life, growth, nutrition, and development. Due to the fast emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the Earth's climate system is being negatively impacted by global warming. Stresses caused by climate change, such as rising and hotter seas, increased droughts and floods, and acrid waters, threaten the world's most populated areas and aquatic ecosystems. As a result, the aquatic ecosystems of the globe are quickly reaching hazardous conditions. Marine ecosystems are essential parts of the world's environment and provide several benefits to the human population, such as water for drinking and irrigation, leisure activities, and habitat for commercially significant fisheries. Although local human activities have influenced coastal zones for millennia, it is still unclear how these impacts and stresses from climate change may combine to endanger coastal ecosystems. Recent studies have shown that rising levels of greenhouse gases are causing ocean systems to experience conditions not seen in several million years, which may cause profound and irreversible ecological shifts. Ocean productivity has declined, food web dynamics have changed, habitat-forming species are less common, species ranges have changed, and disease prevalence has increased due to human climate change. We provide an outline of the interaction between global warming and the influence of humans along the coastline. This review aims to demonstrate the significance of long-term monitoring, the creation of ecological indicators, and the applications of understanding how aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning respond to global warming. This review discusses the effects of current climate change on marine biological processes both now and in the future, describes present climate change concerning historical change, and considers the potential roles aquatic systems could play in mitigating the effects of global climate change.

Shallow subtidal marine benthic communities of Nachvak Fjord, Nunatsiavut, Labrador: A glimpse into species composition and drivers of their distribution

Marine fjords along the northern Labrador coast of Arctic Canada are influenced by freshwater, nutrients, and sediment inputs from ice fields and rivers. These ecosystems, further shaped by both Atlantic and Arctic water masses, are important habitats for fishes, marine mammals, seabirds, and marine invertebrates and are vital to the Labrador Inuit who have long depended on these areas for sustenance. Despite their ecological and socio-cultural importance, these marine ecosystems remain largely understudied. Here we conducted the first quantitative underwater scuba surveys, down to 12 m, of the nearshore marine ecology of Nachvak Fjord, which is surrounded by Torngat Mountains National Park located in Nunatsiavut, the Indigenous lands claim region of northeastern Canada. Our goal was to provide the Nunatsiavut Government with a baseline of the composition and environmental influences on the subtidal community in this isolated region as they work towards the creation of an Indigenous-led National Marine Conservation Area that includes Nachvak Fjord. We identified four major benthic habitat types: (1) boulders (2) rocks with sediment, (3) sediment with rocks, and (4) unconsolidated sediments, including sand, gravel, and cobble. Biogenic cover (e.g., kelp, coralline algae, and sediment) explained much of the variability in megabenthic invertebrate community structure. The kelp species Alaria esculenta, Saccharina latissima, and Laminaria solidungula dominated the boulder habitat outside of the fjord covering 35%, 13%, and 11% of the sea floor, respectively. In contrast, the middle and inner portions of the fjord were devoid of kelp and dominated by encrusting coralline algae. More diverse megabenthic invertebrate assemblages were detected within the fjord compared to the periphery. Fish assemblages were depauperate overall with the shorthorn sculpin, Myoxocephalus scorpius, and the Greenland cod, Gadus ogac, dominating total fish biomass contributing 64% and 30%, respectively. Understanding the composition and environmental influences within this fjord ecosystem not only contributes towards the protection of this ecological and culturally important region but serves as a baseline in a rapidly changing climatic region.

Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood

Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already highly dependent on seafood-derived nutrients. At 4 oC of warming, nutrient availability is projected to decline by ~30% by 2100 in low income countries, while at 1.5-2.0 oC warming, decreases are projected to be ~10%. We demonstrate the importance of effective mitigation to support nutritional security of vulnerable nations and global health equity.

Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit

Climate change scenarios suggest that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO2 . However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate-induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high-emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown. The 'biogeochemical fingerprint' of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization-based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate-driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.

Industrial fisheries have reversed the carbon sequestration by tuna carcasses into emissions

To limit climate warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels, most economic sectors will need a rapid transformation toward a net zero emission of CO2 . Tuna fisheries is a key food production sector that burns fossil fuel to operate but also reduces the deadfall of large-bodied fish so the capacity of this natural carbon pump to deep sea. Yet, the carbon balance of tuna populations, so the net difference between CO2 emission due to industrial exploitation and CO2 sequestration by fish deadfall after natural mortality, is still unknown. Here, by considering the dynamics of two main contrasting tuna species (Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus obesus) across the Pacific since the 1980s, we show that most tuna populations became CO2 sources instead of remaining natural sinks. Without considering the supply chain, the main factors associated with this shift are exploitation rate, transshipment intensity, fuel consumption, and climate change. Our study urges for a better global ocean stewardship, by curbing subsidies and limiting transshipment in remote international waters, to quickly rebuild most pelagic fish stocks above their target management reference points and reactivate a neglected carbon pump toward the deep sea as an additional Nature Climate Solution in our portfolio. Even if this potential carbon sequestration by surface unit may appear low compared to that of coastal ecosystems or tropical forests, the ocean covers a vast area and the sinking biomass of dead vertebrates can sequester carbon for around 1000 years in the deep sea. We also highlight the multiple co-benefits and trade-offs from engaging the industrial fisheries sector with carbon neutrality.

Reconciling the variability in the biological response of marine invertebrates to climate change

As climate change increases the rate of environmental change and the frequency and intensity of disturbance events, selective forces intensify. However, given the complicated interplay between plasticity and selection for ecological - and thus evolutionary - outcomes, understanding the proximate signals, molecular mechanisms and the role of environmental history becomes increasingly critical for eco-evolutionary forecasting. To enhance the accuracy of our forecasting, we must characterize environmental signals at a level of resolution that is relevant to the organism, such as the microhabitat it inhabits and its intracellular conditions, while also quantifying the biological responses to these signals in the appropriate cells and tissues. In this Commentary, we provide historical context to some of the long-standing challenges in global change biology that constrain our capacity for eco-evolutionary forecasting using reef-building corals as a focal model. We then describe examples of mismatches between the scales of external signals relative to the sensors and signal transduction cascades that initiate and maintain cellular responses. Studying cellular responses at this scale is crucial because these responses are the basis of acclimation to changing environmental conditions and the potential for environmental 'memory' of prior or historical conditions through molecular mechanisms. To challenge the field, we outline some unresolved questions and suggest approaches to align experimental work with an organism's perception of the environment; these aspects are discussed with respect to human interventions.

Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Social experience influences thermal sensitivity: lessons from an amphibious mangrove fish

Understanding the factors affecting the capacity of ectothermic fishes to cope with warming temperature is critical given predicted climate change scenarios. We know that a fish's social environment introduces plasticity in how it responds to high temperature. However, the magnitude of this plasticity and the mechanisms underlying socially modulated thermal responses are unknown. Using the amphibious hermaphroditic mangrove rivulus fish Kryptolebias marmoratus as a model, we tested three hypotheses: (1) social stimulation affects physiological and behavioural thermal responses of isogenic lineages of fish; (2) social experience and acute social stimulation result in distinct physiological and behavioural responses; and (3) a desensitization of thermal receptors is responsible for socially modulated thermal responses. To test the first two hypotheses, we measured the temperature at which fish emerged from the water (i.e. pejus temperature) upon acute warming with socially naive isolated fish and with fish that were raised alone and then given a short social experience prior to exposure to increasing temperature (i.e. socially experienced fish). Our results did not support our first hypothesis as fish socially stimulated by mirrors during warming (i.e. acute social stimulation) emerged at similar temperatures to isolated fish. However, in support of our second hypothesis, a short period of prior social experience resulted in fish emerging at a higher temperature than socially naive fish suggesting an increase in pejus temperature with social experience. To test our third hypothesis, we exposed fish that had been allowed a brief social interaction and naive fish to capsaicin, an agonist of TRPV1 thermal receptors. Socially experienced fish emerged at significantly higher capsaicin concentrations than socially naive fish suggesting a desensitization of their TRPV1 thermal receptors. Collectively, our data indicate that past and present social experiences impact the behavioural response of fish to high temperature. We also provide novel data suggesting that brief periods of social experience affect the capacity of fish to perceive warm temperature.

Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO2 and temperature, CO2 and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%-6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (-8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (-5.0% vs. -9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of -10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (-7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.

Marine spatial planning to solve increasing conflicts at sea: A framework for prioritizing offshore windfarms and marine protected areas

Direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems are expected to lower the provided ecosystem services (ES) in the near future. To limit these impacts, protected areas will be implemented as part of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Simultaneously, as an answer to climate change, renewable energies are being rapidly developed on a worldwide scale, leading to a significant increase in space use in the coming decades. Sharing space is an increasingly complex task, especially because of the high rate of emergence of such competitors for space. In fisheries-dominated socio-ecosystems, acceptability of offshore windfarms (OWFs) and marine protected areas (MPAs) is usually very low, partly due to an underrepresentation of fisheries in spatial plans and poor attention to equity in the spatial distribution of restrictive areas. Here we developed a framework with a marine spatial planning case study in the Bay of Biscay represented by the socio-ecosystem of the Grande Vasière, a mid-shelf mud belt spanning over 21,000 km². We collected biological, environmental, and anthropogenic data to model the distribution of 62 bentho-demersal species, 7 regulating ES layers related to nutrient cycling, life cycle maintenance and food web functioning, as well as provisioning ES of 18 commercial species and 82 fisheries subdivisions. We used these spatial layers and a prioritization algorithm to explore siting scenarios of OWFs and two types of MPAs (benthic and total protection), aimed at conserving species, regulating and provisioning ES, while also ensuring that fisheries are equitably impacted. We demonstrate that equitable scenarios are not necessarily costlier and provide alternative spatial prioritizations. We emphasize the importance of exploring multiple targets with a Shiny app to visualize results and stimulate dialogue among stakeholders and policymakers. Overall, we show how our flexible, inclusive framework with particular attention to equity could be an ideal discussion tool to improve management practices.

Ecological indicators reveal historical regime shifts in the Black Sea ecosystem

Background

The Black Sea is one of the most anthropogenically disturbed marine ecosystems in the world because of introduced species, fisheries overexploitation, nutrient enrichment via pollution through river discharge, and the impacts of climate change. It has undergone significant ecosystem transformations since the 1960s. The infamous anchovy and alien warty comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi shift that occurred in 1989 is the most well-known example of the drastic extent of anthropogenic disturbance in the Black Sea. Although a vast body of literature exists on the Black Sea ecosystem, a holistic look at the multidecadal changes in the Black Sea ecosystem using an ecosystem- and ecology-based approach is still lacking. Hence, this work is dedicated to filling this gap.

Methods

First, a dynamic food web model of the Black Sea extending from 1960 to 1999 was established and validated against time-series data. Next, an ecological network analysis was performed to calculate the time series of synthetic ecological indicators, and a regime shift analysis was performed on the time series of indicators.

Results

The model successfully replicated the regime shifts observed in the Black Sea. The results showed that the Black Sea ecosystem experienced four regime shifts and was reorganized due to effects instigated by overfishing in the 1960s, eutrophication and establishment of trophic dead-end organisms in the 1970s, and overfishing and intensifying interspecies trophic competition by the overpopulation of some r-selected organisms (i.e., jellyfish species) in the 1980s. Overall, these changes acted concomitantly to erode the structure and function of the ecosystem by manipulating the food web to reorganize itself through the introduction and selective removal of organisms and eutrophication. Basin-wide, cross-national management efforts, especially with regard to pollution and fisheries, could have prevented the undesirable changes observed in the Black Sea ecosystem and should be immediately employed for management practices in the basin to prevent such drastic ecosystem fluctuations in the future.

Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global warming where key commercial species, such as demersal and pelagic fishes, and cephalopods, could experience abrupt distribution shifts in the near future. However, the extent to which these range shifts may impact fisheries catch potential remains poorly understood at the scale of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Here, we evaluated the projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries catches potential, by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. We show that the future Mediterranean maximum catch potential may decrease considerably by the end of the century under high emission scenarios in South Eastern Mediterranean countries. These projected decreases range between -20 to -75 % for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, -50 to -75 % for fixed nets and traps and exceed -75 % for benthic trawl. In contrast, fixed nets and traps, and benthic trawl fisheries may experience an increase in their catch potential in the North and Celtic seas, while future catches by pelagic trawl and seine may decrease in the same areas. We show that a high emission scenario may considerably amplify the future redistribution of fisheries catch potential across European Seas, thus highlighting the need to limit global warming. Our projections at the manageable scale of EEZ and the quantification of climate-induced impacts on a large part of the Mediterranean and European fisheries is therefore a first, and considerable step toward the development of climate mitigation and adaptations strategies for the fisheries sector.

May future climate change promote the invasion of the marsh frog? An integrative thermo-physiological study

Climate change and invasive species are two major drivers of biodiversity loss and their interaction may lead to unprecedented further loss. Invasive ectotherms can be expected to tolerate temperature variation because of a broad thermal tolerance and may even benefit from warmer temperatures in their new ranges that better match their thermal preference. Multi-trait studies provide a valuable approach to elucidate the influence of temperature on the invasion process and offer insights into how climatic factors may facilitate or hinder the spread of invasive ectotherms. We here used marsh frogs, Pelophylax ridibundus, a species that is invading large areas of Western Europe but whose invasive potential has been underestimated. We measured the maximal and minimal temperatures to sustain physical activity, the preferred temperature, and the thermal dependence of their stamina and jumping performance in relation to the environmental temperatures observed in their invasive range. Our results showed that marsh frogs can withstand body temperatures that cover 100% of the annual temperature variation in the pond they live in and 77% of the observed current annual air temperature variation. Their preferred body temperature and performance optima were higher than the average temperature in their pond and the average air temperature experienced under the shade. These data suggest that invasive marsh frogs may benefit from a warmer climate. Broad thermal tolerances, combined with high thermal preferences and traits maximised at high temperatures, may allow this species to expand their activity period and colonise underexploited shaded habitat, thereby promoting their invasion success.

Sensors for Coastal and Ocean Monitoring

In situ water monitoring sensors are critical to gain an understanding of ocean biochemistry and ecosystem health. They enable the collection of high-frequency data and capture ecosystem spatial and temporal changes, which in turn facilitate long-term global predictions. They are used as decision support tools in emergency situations and for risk mitigation, pollution source tracking, and regulatory monitoring. Advanced sensing platforms exist to support various monitoring needs together with state-of-the-art power and communication capabilities. To be fit-for-purpose, sensors must withstand the challenging marine environment and provide data at an acceptable cost. Significant technological advancements have catalyzed the development of new and improved sensors for coastal and oceanographic applications. Sensors are becoming smaller, smarter, more cost-effective, and increasingly specialized and diversified. This article, therefore, provides a review of the state-of-the art oceanographic and coastal sensors. Progress in sensor development is discussed in terms of performance and the key strategies used for achieving robustness, marine rating, cost reduction, and antifouling protection.

Exploring scenarios for the food system-zoonotic risk interface

The unprecedented economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic spillover events, which occur at the human-wildlife and domesticated animal interface. Spillover events are associated to varying degrees with high habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting-all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in the discourse of food systems to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of spillover events. Here, we adopt a scenario framework to highlight the many connections among food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions: the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability. Prophylactic measures to curb the emergence of zoonotic diseases are therefore closely linked to diets and food policies. Future research directions should explore more closely how they impact the risk of spillover events.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.

Regulation of CO2 by the sea in areas around Latin America in a context of climate change

Anthropogenic activities are increasing the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂); around a third of the CO₂ emitted by these activities has been taken up by the ocean. Nevertheless, this marine ecosystem service of regulation remains largely invisible to society, and not enough is known about regional differences and trends in sea-air CO₂ fluxes (FCO2), especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The objectives of this work were as follows: first to put values of FCO2 integrated over the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of five Latin-American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela) into perspective regarding total country-level greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Second, to assess the variability of two main biological factors affecting FCO2 at marine ecological time series (METS) in these areas. FCO2 over the EEZs were estimated using the NEMO model, and GHG emissions were taken from reports to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. For each METS, the variability in phytoplankton biomass (indexed by chlorophyll-a concentration, Chla) and abundance of different cell sizes (phy-size) were analyzed at two time periods (2000-2015 and 2007-2015). Estimates of FCO2 at the analyzed EEZs showed high variability among each other and non-negligible values in the context of greenhouse gas emissions. The trends observed at the METS indicated, in some cases, an increase in Chla (e.g., EPEA-Argentina) and a decrease in others (e.g., IMARPE-Peru). Evidence of increasing populations of small size-phytoplankton was observed (e.g., EPEA-Argentina, Ensenada-Mexico), which would affect the carbon export to the deep ocean. These results highlight the relevance of ocean health and its ecosystem service of regulation when discussing carbon net emissions and budgets.

Effects of high temperature and marine heat waves on seagrasses: Is warming affecting the nutritional value of Posidonia oceanica?

Primary producers nutritional content affects the entire food web. Here, changes in nutritional value associated with temperature rise and the occurrence of marine heat waves (MHWs) were explored in the endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica. The variability of fatty acids (FAs) composition and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content were examined during summer 2021 from five Mediterranean sites located at the same latitude but under different thermal environments. The results highlighted a decrease in unsaturated FAs and C/N ratio and an increase of monounsaturated FA (MUFA) and N content when a MHW occurred. By contrast, the leaf biochemical composition seems to be adapted to local water temperature since only few significant changes in MUFA were found and N and C/N had an opposite pattern compared to when a MHW occurs. The projected increase in temperature and frequency of MHW suggest future changes in the nutritional value and palatability of leaves.

Palaeontological evidence for community-level decrease in mesopelagic fish size during Pleistocene climate warming in the eastern Mediterranean

Mesopelagic fishes are an important element of marine food webs, a huge, still mostly untapped food resource and great contributors to the biological carbon pump, whose future under climate change scenarios is unknown. The shrinking of commercial fishes within decades has been an alarming observation, but its causes remain contended. Here, we investigate the effect of warming climate on mesopelagic fish size in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during a glacial-interglacial-glacial transition of the Middle Pleistocene (marine isotope stages 20-18; 814-712 kyr B.P.), which included a 4°C increase in global seawater temperature. Our results based on fossil otoliths show that the median size of lanternfishes, one of the most abundant groups of mesopelagic fishes in fossil and modern assemblages, declined by approximately 35% with climate warming at the community level. However, individual mesopelagic species showed different and often opposing trends in size across the studied time interval, suggesting that climate warming in the interglacial resulted in an ecological shift toward increased relative abundance of smaller sized mesopelagic fishes due to geographical and/or bathymetric distribution range shifts, and the size-dependent effects of warming.

Solar radiation, temperature and the reproductive biology of the coral Lobactis scutaria in a changing climate

Coral reefs worldwide are at risk due to climate change. Coral bleaching is becoming increasingly common and corals that survive bleaching events can suffer from temporary reproductive failure for several years. While water temperature is a key driver in causing coral bleaching, other environmental factors are involved, such as solar radiation. We investigated the individual and combined effects of temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) on the spawning patterns and reproductive physiology of the Hawaiian mushroom coral Lobactis scutaria, using long-term experiments in aquaria. We examined effects on spawning timing, fertilisation success, and gamete physiology. Both warmer temperatures and filtering UVR altered the timing of spawning. Warmer temperatures caused a drop in fertilisation success. Warmer temperatures and higher PAR both negatively affected sperm and egg physiology. These results are concerning for the mushroom coral L. scutaria and similar reproductive data are urgently needed to predict future reproductive trends in other species. Nonetheless, thermal stress from global climate change will need to be adequately addressed to ensure the survival of reef-building corals in their natural environment throughout the next century and beyond. Until then, reproduction is likely to be increasingly impaired in a growing number of coral species.

Temperature and feeding frequency impact the survival, growth, and metamorphosis success of Solea solea larvae

Human-induced climate change impacts the oceans, increasing their temperature, changing their circulation and chemical properties, and affecting marine ecosystems. Like most marine species, sole has a biphasic life cycle, where one planktonic larval stage and juvenile/adult stages occur in a different ecological niche. The year-class strength, usually quantified by the end of the larvae stage, is crucial for explaining the species' recruitment. We implemented an experimental system for rearing larvae under laboratory conditions and experimentally investigated the effects of temperature and feeding frequencies on survival, development (growth), and metamorphosis success of S. solea larvae. Specific questions addressed in this work include: what are the effects of feeding regimes on larvae development? How does temperature impact larvae development? Our results highlight that survival depends on the first feeding, that the onset of metamorphosis varies according to rearing temperature and that poorly fed larvae take significantly longer to start (if they do) metamorphosing. Moreover, larvae reared at the higher temperature (a +4°C scenario) showed a higher incidence in metamorphosis defects. We discuss the implications of our results in an ecological context, notably in terms of recruitment and settlement. Understanding the processes that regulate the abundance of wild populations is of primary importance, especially if these populations are living resources exploited by humans.

Metabolic responses of predators to prey density

The metabolic cost of foraging is the dark energy of ecological systems. It is much harder to observe and to measure than its beneficial counterpart, prey consumption, yet it is not inconsequential for the dynamics of prey and predator populations. Here I define the metabolic response as the change in energy expenditure of predators in response to changes in prey density. It is analogous and intrinsically linked to the functional response, which is the change in consumption rate with prey density, as they are both shaped by adjustments in foraging activity. These adjustments are adaptive, ubiquitous in nature, and are implicitly assumed by models of predator–prey dynamics that impose consumption saturation in functional responses. By ignoring the associated metabolic responses, these models violate the principle of energy conservation and likely underestimate the strength of predator–prey interactions. Using analytical and numerical approaches, I show that missing this component of interaction has broad consequences for dynamical stability and for the robustness of ecosystems to persistent environmental or anthropogenic stressors. Negative metabolic responses – those resulting from decreases in foraging activity when more prey is available, and arguably the most common – lead to lower local stability of food webs and a faster pace of change in population sizes, including higher excitability, higher frequency of oscillations, and quicker return times to equilibrium when stable. They can also buffer the effects of press perturbations, such as harvesting, on target populations and on their prey through top-down trophic cascades, but are expected to magnify bottom-up cascades, including the effects of nutrient enrichment or the effects of altering lower trophic levels that can be caused by environmental forcing and climate change. These results have implications for any resource management approach that relies on models of food web dynamics, which is the case of many applications of ecosystem-based fisheries management. Finally, besides having their own individual effects, metabolic responses have the potential to greatly alter, or even invert, functional response-stability relationships, and therefore can be critical to an integral understanding of predation and its influence on population dynamics and persistence.

Cultivation and Imaging of S. latissima Embryo Monolayered Cell Sheets Inside Microfluidic Devices

The culturing and investigation of individual marine specimens in lab environments is crucial to further our understanding of this highly complex ecosystem. However, the obtained results and their relevance are often limited by a lack of suitable experimental setups enabling controlled specimen growth in a natural environment while allowing for precise monitoring and in-depth observations. In this work, we explore the viability of a microfluidic device for the investigation of the growth of the alga Saccharina latissima to enable high-resolution imaging by confining the samples, which usually grow in 3D, to a single 2D plane. We evaluate the specimen’s health based on various factors such as its growth rate, cell shape, and major developmental steps with regard to the device’s operating parameters and flow conditions before demonstrating its compatibility with state-of-the-art microscopy imaging technologies such as the skeletonisation of the specimen through calcofluor white-based vital staining of its cell contours as well as the immunolocalisation of the specimen’s cell wall. Furthermore, by making use of the on-chip characterisation capabilities, we investigate the influence of altered environmental illuminations on the embryonic development using blue and red light. Finally, live tracking of fluorescent microspheres deposited on the surface of the embryo permits the quantitative characterisation of growth at various locations of the organism.

Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change

Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.

Overfishing species on the move may burden seafood provision in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean

Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.

Scale-Up to Pilot of a Non-Axenic Culture of Thraustochytrids Using Digestate from Methanization as Nitrogen Source

The production of non-fish based docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) for feed and food has become a critical need in our global context of over-fishing. The industrial-scale production of DHA–rich Thraustochytrids could be an alternative, if costs turned out to be competitive. In order to reduce production costs, this study addresses the feasibility of the non-axenic (non-sterile) cultivation of Aurantiochytrium mangrovei on industrial substrates (as nitrogen and mineral sources and glucose syrup as carbon and energy sources), and its scale-up from laboratory (250 mL) to 500 L cultures. Pilot-scale reactors were airlift cylinders. Batch and fed-batch cultures were tested. Cultures over 38 to 62 h achieved a dry cell weight productivity of 3.3 to 5.5 g.L⁻¹.day⁻¹, and a substrate to biomass yield of up to 0.3. DHA productivity ranged from 10 to 0.18 mg.L⁻¹.day⁻¹. Biomass productivity appears linearly related to oxygen transfer rate. Bacterial contamination of cultures was low enough to avoid impacts on fatty acid composition of the biomass. A specific work on microbial risks assessment (in supplementary files) showed that the biomass can be securely used as feed. However, to date, there is a law void in EU legislation regarding the recycling of nitrogen from digestate from animal waste for microalgae biomass and its usage in animal feed. Overall, the proposed process appears similar to the industrial yeast production process (non-axenic heterotrophic process, dissolved oxygen supply limiting growth, similar cell size). Such similarity could help in further industrial developments.

Impact of warming on aquatic body sizes explained by metabolic scaling from microbes to macrofauna

Warming of the ocean is predicted to cause a reduction in the body sizes of marine animal species, but the biological basis for this prediction remains debated. We present a generalized mechanistic model of oxygen supply and demand that successfully reproduces the magnitude, variation, and temperature and body size dependence of body size responses to temperature change in laboratory experiments, supporting oxygen limitation as their underlying cause. When applied to accelerating future climate change scenarios, our results imply that the “temperature-size rule” will cause widely varying responses across the body size spectrum from microbes to macrofauna, impacting the function of size-structured marine food webs.

Rising temperatures are associated with reduced body size in many marine species, but the biological cause and generality of the phenomenon is debated. We derive a predictive model for body size responses to temperature and oxygen (O₂) changes based on thermal and geometric constraints on organismal O₂ supply and demand across the size spectrum. The model reproduces three key aspects of the observed patterns of intergenerational size reductions measured in laboratory warming experiments of diverse aquatic ectotherms (i.e., the “temperature-size rule” [TSR]). First, the interspecific mean and variability of the TSR is predicted from species’ temperature sensitivities of hypoxia tolerance, whose nonlinearity with temperature also explains the second TSR pattern—its amplification as temperatures rise. Third, as body size increases across the tree of life, the impact of growth on O₂ demand declines while its benefit to O₂ supply rises, decreasing the size dependence of hypoxia tolerance and requiring larger animals to contract by a larger fraction to compensate for a thermally driven rise in metabolism. Together our results support O₂ limitation as the mechanism underlying the TSR, and they provide a physiological basis for projecting ectotherm body size responses to climate change from microbes to macrofauna. For small species unable to rapidly migrate or evolve greater hypoxia tolerance, ocean warming and O₂ loss in this century are projected to induce >20% reductions in body mass. Size reductions at higher trophic levels could be even stronger and more variable, compounding the direct impact of human harvesting on size-structured ocean food webs.

Trophic Transfer Efficiency in Lakes

Trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) is usually calculated as the ratio of production rates between two consecutive trophic levels. Although seemingly simple, TTE estimates from lakes are rare. In our review, we explore the processes and structures that must be understood for a proper lake TTE estimate. We briefly discuss measurements of production rates and trophic positions and mention how ecological efficiencies, nutrients (N, P) and other compounds (fatty acids) affect energy transfer between trophic levels and hence TTE. Furthermore, we elucidate how TTE estimates are linked with size-based approaches according to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, and how food-web models can be applied to study TTE in lakes. Subsequently, we explore temporal and spatial heterogeneity of production and TTE in lakes, with a particular focus on the links between benthic and pelagic habitats and between the lake and the terrestrial environment. We provide an overview of TTE estimates from lakes found in the published literature. Finally, we present two alternative approaches to estimating TTE. First, TTE can be seen as a mechanistic quantity informing about the energy and matter flow between producer and consumer groups. This approach is informative with respect to food-web structure, but requires enormous amounts of data. The greatest uncertainty comes from the proper consideration of basal production to estimate TTE of omnivorous organisms. An alternative approach is estimating food-chain and food-web efficiencies, by comparing the heterotrophic production of single consumer levels or the total sum of all heterotrophic production including that of heterotrophic bacteria to the total sum of primary production. We close the review by pointing to a few research questions that would benefit from more frequent and standardized estimates of TTE in lakes.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Responses of agriculture and fisheries to climate change are interlinked, yet rarely studied together. Here, the authors analyse more than 3000 households from 5 tropical countries and forecast mid-century climate change impacts, finding that communities with higher fishery dependence and lower socioeconomic status communities face greater losses.