Harmonization of Respiratory Data From 9 US Population-Based Cohorts: The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study

Hypertension Prevention and Healthy Life Expectancy in Black Adults: The Jackson Heart Study

BACKGROUND

The impact of preventing hypertension and maintaining normal blood pressure (BP) on life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HLE) among Black adults, who are disproportionately affected by hypertension, has not been quantified.

METHODS

We used a discrete event simulation to estimate life expectancy and HLE among a cohort of Black adults from the Jackson Heart Study (n=4933) from age 20 to 100 years or until death. We modeled preventing hypertension as having BP <130/80 mm Hg and maintaining normal BP as having BP <120/80 mm Hg across the lifespan. In the primary analysis, we assumed that lowering BP decreased the risk of cardiovascular disease events, resulting in life expectancy and HLE gains. In a secondary analysis, we assumed that preventing hypertension and maintaining normal BP directly reduced both cardiovascular disease and mortality risk.

RESULTS

At age 20 years, the projected average life expectancy was age 80.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 80.6-81.1) years, and HLE was 70.5 (95% UI, 70.3-70.7) healthy life years. In the primary analysis, preventing hypertension and maintaining normal BP added 0.9 (95% UI, 0.8-1.1) and 1.1 (95% UI, 0.9-1.3) years to life expectancy, respectively, and 2.7 (95% UI, 2.6-2.9) and 2.9 (95% UI, 2.7-3.1) healthy life years to HLE, respectively. In the secondary analysis, preventing hypertension and maintaining normal BP added 4.5 (95% UI, 4.3-4.6) and 4.6 (95% UI, 4.4-4.8) years to life expectancy, respectively, and 5.7 (95% UI, 5.6-5.8) and 5.9 (95% UI, 5.7-6.0) healthy life years to HLE, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventing hypertension and maintaining normal BP were projected to increase life expectancy and HLE among Black adults.

Comparison of STAR and GOLD in Assessing Disease Severity Among High-Risk and COPD Patients: Evidence from Enjoying Breathing Program in China

Background

The STAR staging standard has been demonstrated to have good performance in distinguishing mortality among patients at different stages. However, the effectiveness of STAR and GOLD staging in distinguishing disease severity in high-risk and COPD patients remained unclear.

Methods

Based on Enjoying Breathing Program data through June 2023, a total of 7.924 high-risk and COPD patients were included. STAR and GOLD severity stages were based on FEV1/FVC (0.6-0.7, 0.5-0.6, 0.4-0.5, and <0.4 for stage 1 to 4 in STAR) and the proportion of predicted FEV1 value (≥80%, 50%-80%, 30%-50%, and <30% for stage 1 to 4 in GOLD), respectively. The cox regression model was used to assess the risk of medical visit due to severe respiratory symptoms according to STAR and GOLD.

Results

The current study included 1603 high-risk individuals and 6321 COPD patients. The proportions of STAR 1-4 in COPD patients were 37.1%, 33.2%, 20.5%, and 9.2%, respectively. In COPD patients only, GOLD stage distinguished disease severity well, but there was no difference in the risk of exacerbation between the different STAR stage groups. In addition, in COPD patients, by considering of GOLD and STAR together, GOLD 3 and 4 can provide more information about the exacerbation based on each STAR level, and STAR 1 and 2 can provide more information about the exacerbation in GOLD 2-4. COPD patients with GOLD 4 and STAR 2 (HR=4.08, 95% CI: 2.75-6.04) had the highest risk of exacerbation, followed by COPD patients with GOLD 4 and STAR 1 (HR=3.94, 95% CI: 2.49-6.23).

Conclusion

In COPD patients, GOLD performs better than STAR in predicting exacerbation risk. In addition, the combination of GOLD and STAR can provide more information, especially for COPD patients with GOLD 4 and STAR 1-2, which should be paid more attention in treatment and disease management.

The PRIMED Consortium: Reducing disparities in polygenic risk assessment

By improving disease risk prediction, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could have a significant impact on health promotion and disease prevention. Due to the historical oversampling of populations with European ancestry for genome-wide association studies, PRSs perform less well in other, understudied populations, leading to concerns that clinical use in their current forms could widen health care disparities. The PRIMED Consortium was established to develop methods to improve the performance of PRSs in global populations and individuals of diverse genetic ancestry. To this end, PRIMED is aggregating and harmonizing multiple phenotype and genotype datasets on AnVIL, an interoperable secure cloud-based platform, to perform individual- and summary-level analyses using population and statistical genetics approaches. Study sites, the coordinating center, and representatives from the NIH work alongside other NHGRI and global consortia to achieve these goals. PRIMED is also evaluating ethical and social implications of PRS implementation and investigating the joint modeling of social determinants of health and PRS in computing disease risk. The phenotypes of interest are primarily cardiometabolic diseases and cancer, the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Early deliverables of the consortium include methods for data sharing on AnVIL, development of a common data model to harmonize phenotype and genotype data from cohort studies as well as electronic health records, adaptation of recent guidelines for population descriptors to global cohorts, and sharing of PRS methods/tools. As a multisite collaboration, PRIMED aims to foster equity in the development and use of polygenic risk assessment.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association study reveals novel genetic signals for lung function decline

Rationale

Accelerated decline in lung function contributes to the development of chronic respiratory disease. Despite evidence for a genetic component, few genetic associations with lung function decline have been identified.

Objectives

To evaluate genome-wide associations and putative downstream functionality of genetic variants with lung function decline in diverse general population cohorts.

Methods

We conducted genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses of decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and their ratio (FEV1/FVC) in participants across six cohorts in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium and the UK Biobank. Genotypes were imputed to TOPMed (CHARGE cohorts) or Haplotype Reference Consortium (HRC) (UK Biobank) reference panels, and GWAS analyses used generalized estimating equation models with robust standard error. Models were stratified by cohort, ancestry, and sex, and adjusted for important lung function confounders and genotype principal components. Results were combined in cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific meta-analyses. Selected top variants were tested for replication in two independent COPD-enriched cohorts.

Measurements and Main Results

Our discovery analyses included 52,056 self-reported White (N=44,988), Black (N=5,788), Hispanic (N=550), and Chinese American (N=730) participants with a mean of 2.3 spirometry measurements and 8.6 years of follow-up. Functional mapping of GWAS meta-analysis results identified 361 distinct genome-wide significant (p<5E-08) variants in one or more of the FEV1, FVC, and FEV1/FVC decline phenotypes, which overlapped with previously reported genetic signals for several related pulmonary traits. Of these, 8 variants, or 20.5% of the variant set available for replication testing, were nominally associated (p<0.05) with at least one decline phenotype in COPD-enriched cohorts (White [N=4,778] and Black [N=1,118]). Using the GWAS results, gene-level analysis implicated 38 genes, including eight (XIRP2, GRIN2D, SATB1, MARCHF4, SIPA1L2, ANO5, H2BC10, and FAF2) with consistent associations across ancestries or decline phenotypes. Annotation class analysis revealed significant enrichment of several regulatory processes for corticosteroid biosynthesis and metabolism. Drug repurposing analysis identified 43 approved compounds targeting eight of the implicated 38 genes.

Conclusions

Our multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses identified numerous genetic loci associated with lung function decline. These findings contribute knowledge to the genetic architecture of lung function decline, provide evidence for a role of endogenous corticosteroids in the etiology of lung function decline, and identify drug targets that merit further study for potential repurposing to slow lung function decline and treat lung disease.

Harmonizing Dietary Exposure of Adult and Older Individuals: A Methodological Work of the Collaborative PROMED-COG Pooled Cohorts Study

Objectives: The PROtein-enriched MEDiterranean diet to combat undernutrition and promote healthy neuroCOGnitive ageing in older adults (PROMED-COG) is a European project that investigates the role of nutritional status on neurocognitive ageing. This methodological paper describes the harmonization process of dietary data from four Italian observational studies (Pro.V.A., ILSA, BEST-FU, and NutBrain). Methods: Portion sizes and food frequency consumption within different food frequency questionnaires were retrospectively harmonized across the datasets on daily food frequency, initially analyzing raw data using the original codebook and establishing a uniform food categorization system. Individual foods were then aggregated into 27 common food groups. Results: The pooled cohort consisted of 9326 individuals (40-101 years, 52.4% female). BEST-FU recruited younger participants who were more often smokers and less physically active than those of the other studies. Dietary instruments varied across the studies differing in the number of items and time intervals assessed, but all collected dietary intake through face-to-face interviews with a common subset of items. The average daily intakes of the 27 food groups across studies varied, with BEST-FU participants generally consuming more fruits, vegetables, red meat, and fish than the other studies. Conclusions: Harmonization of dietary data presents challenges but allows for the integration of information from diverse studies, leading to a more robust and statistically powerful dataset. The study highlights the feasibility and benefits of data harmonization, despite inherent limitations, and sets the stage for future research into the effects of diet on cognitive health and aging.

Non-cigarette tobacco products, aryl-hydrocarbon receptor repressor gene methylation and smoking-related health outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Cigarette smoking leads to altered DNA methylation at the aryl-hydrocarbon receptor repressor (AHRR) gene. However, it remains unknown whether pipe or cigar smoking is associated with AHRR methylation. We evaluated associations of non-cigarette tobacco use with AHRR methylation and determined if AHRR methylation was associated with smoking-related health outcomes.

METHODS

Data were pooled across four population-based cohorts that enrolled participants from 1985 to 2002. Tobacco exposures were evaluated using smoking questionnaires. AHRR cg05575921 methylation was measured in peripheral blood leucocyte DNA. Spirometry and respiratory symptoms were evaluated at the time of methylation measurements and in subsequent visits. Vital status was monitored using the National Death Index.

RESULTS

Among 8252 adults (mean age 56.7±10.3 years, 58.1% women, 40.6% black), 4857 (58.9%) participants used cigarettes and 634 (7.7%) used non-cigarette tobacco products. Exclusive use of non-cigarette tobacco products was independently associated with lower AHRR methylation (-2.44 units, 95% CI -4.42 to -0.45), though to a lesser extent than exclusive use of cigarettes (-6.01 units, 95% CI -6.01 to -4.10). Among participants who exclusively used non-cigarette tobacco products, reduced AHRR methylation was associated with increased respiratory symptom burden (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.68) and higher all-cause mortality (log-rank p=0.02).

CONCLUSION

Pipe and cigar smoking were independently associated with lower AHRR methylation in a multiethnic cohort of US adults. Among users of non-cigarette tobacco products, lower AHRR methylation was associated with poor respiratory health outcomes and increased mortality. AHRR methylation may identify non-cigarette tobacco users with an increased risk of adverse smoking-related health outcomes.

Epidemiologic Features of Recovery From SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Importance

Persistent symptoms and disability following SARS-CoV-2 infection, known as post-COVID-19 condition or "long COVID," are frequently reported and pose a substantial personal and societal burden.

Objective

To determine time to recovery following SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify factors associated with recovery by 90 days.

Design, Setting, and Participants

For this prospective cohort study, standardized ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 infection was conducted starting in April 1, 2020, across 14 ongoing National Institutes of Health-funded cohorts that have enrolled and followed participants since 1971. This report includes data collected through February 28, 2023, on adults aged 18 years or older with self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Exposure

Preinfection health conditions and lifestyle factors assessed before and during the pandemic via prepandemic examinations and pandemic-era questionnaires.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Probability of nonrecovery by 90 days and restricted mean recovery times were estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to assess multivariable-adjusted associations with recovery by 90 days.

Results

Of 4708 participants with self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean [SD] age, 61.3 [13.8] years; 2952 women [62.7%]), an estimated 22.5% (95% CI, 21.2%-23.7%) did not recover by 90 days post infection. Median (IQR) time to recovery was 20 (8-75) days. By 90 days post infection, there were significant differences in restricted mean recovery time according to sociodemographic, clinical, and lifestyle characteristics, particularly by acute infection severity (outpatient vs critical hospitalization, 32.9 days [95% CI, 31.9-33.9 days] vs 57.6 days [95% CI, 51.9-63.3 days]; log-rank P < .001). Recovery by 90 days post infection was associated with vaccination prior to infection (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.51) and infection during the sixth (Omicron variant) vs first wave (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49). These associations were mediated by reduced severity of acute infection (33.4% and 17.6%, respectively). Recovery was unfavorably associated with female sex (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.92) and prepandemic clinical cardiovascular disease (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.71-0.99). No significant multivariable-adjusted associations were observed for age, educational attainment, smoking history, obesity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or elevated depressive symptoms. Results were similar for reinfections.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, more than 1 in 5 adults did not recover within 3 months of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recovery within 3 months was less likely in women and those with preexisting cardiovascular disease and more likely in those with COVID-19 vaccination or infection during the Omicron variant wave.

Airway Mucus Plugs in Community-Living Adults: A Study Protocol

Introduction

Mucus pathology plays a critical role in airway diseases like Chronic Bronchitis (CB) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Up to 32% of community-living persons report clinical manifestations of mucus pathology (e.g., cough and sputum production). However, airway mucus pathology has not been systematically studied in community-living individuals. In this study, we will use an objective, reproducible assessment of mucus pathology on chest Computed Tomography (CT) scans from community-living individuals participating in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) and Framingham Heart Study (FHS) cohorts.

Methods and analysis

We will determine the clinical relevance of CT-based mucus plugs and modifiable and genetic risk and protective factors associated with this process. We will evaluate the associations of mucus plugs with lung function, respiratory symptoms, and chronic bronchitis and examine whether 5-yr. persistent CT-based mucus plugs are associated with the decline in FEV1 and future COPD. Also, we will assess whether modifiable factors, including air pollution and marijuana smoking are associated with increased odds of CT-based mucus plugs and whether cardiorespiratory fitness is related in an opposing manner. Finally, we will determine genetic resilience/susceptibility to mucus pathology. We will use CT data from the FHS and CARDIA cohorts and genome-wide sequencing data from the TOPMed initiative to identify common and rare variants associated with CT-based mucus plugging.

Ethics and dissemination

The Mass General Brigham Institutional Review Board approved the study. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and at professional conferences.

Conclusion

Determine whether the presence of CT-based mucus plugs is associated with lung health impairment, including reduced FEV1, more respiratory symptoms, and asthma. Identify modifiable risk and protective factors, such as pollution, exercise, smoking, and fitness that are associated with mucus plugs.

Airway Mucus Plugs in Community-Living Adults: A Study Protocol

Introduction

Mucus pathology plays a critical role in airway diseases like chronic bronchitis (CB) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Up to 32% of community-living persons report clinical manifestations of mucus pathology (e.g., cough and sputum production). However, airway mucus pathology has not been systematically studied in community-living individuals. In this study, we will use an objective, reproducible assessment of mucus pathology on chest computed tomography (CT) scans from community-living individuals participating in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) and Framingham Heart Study (FHS) cohorts.

Methods and analysis

We will determine the clinical relevance of CT-based mucus plugs and modifiable and genetic risk and protective factors associated with this process. We will evaluate the associations of mucus plugs with lung function, respiratory symptoms, and chronic bronchitis and examine whether 5-yr. persistent CT-based mucus plugs are associated with the decline in FEV1 and future COPD. Also, we will assess whether modifiable factors, including air pollution and marijuana smoking are associated with increased odds of CT-based mucus plugs and whether cardiorespiratory fitness is related in an opposing manner. Finally, we will determine genetic resilience/susceptibility to mucus pathology. We will use CT data from the FHS and CARDIA cohorts and genome-wide sequencing data from the TOPMed initiative to identify common and rare variants associated with CT-based mucus plugging.

Ethics and Dissemination

The Mass General Brigham Institutional Review Board approved the study. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and at professional conferences.

Familial Hypercholesterolemia Variant and Cardiovascular Risk in Individuals With Elevated Cholesterol

Importance

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a genetic disorder that often results in severely high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the impact of FH variants on CHD risk among individuals with moderately elevated LDL-C is not well quantified.

Objective

To assess CHD risk associated with FH variants among individuals with moderately (130-189 mg/dL) and severely (≥190 mg/dL) elevated LDL-C and to quantify excess CHD deaths attributable to FH variants in US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A total of 21 426 individuals without preexisting CHD from 6 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort, Jackson Heart Study, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included, 63 of whom had an FH variant. Data were collected from 1971 to 2018, and the median (IQR) follow-up was 18 (13-28) years. Data were analyzed from March to May 2023.

Exposures

LDL-C, cumulative past LDL-C, FH variant status.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations between FH variants and incident CHD. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model projected excess CHD deaths associated with FH variants in US adults.

Results

Of the 21 426 individuals without preexisting CHD (mean [SD] age 52.1 [15.5] years; 12 041 [56.2%] female), an FH variant was found in 22 individuals with moderately elevated LDL-C (0.3%) and in 33 individuals with severely elevated LDL-C (2.5%). The adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHD comparing those with and without FH variants were 2.9 (95% CI, 1.4-6.0) and 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.9) among individuals with moderately and severely elevated LDL-C, respectively. The association between FH variants and CHD was slightly attenuated when further adjusting for baseline LDL-C level, whereas the association was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for cumulative past LDL-C exposure. Among US adults 20 years and older with no history of CHD and LDL-C 130 mg/dL or higher, more than 417 000 carry an FH variant and were projected to experience more than 12 000 excess CHD deaths in those with moderately elevated LDL-C and 15 000 in those with severely elevated LDL-C compared with individuals without an FH variant.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this pooled cohort study, the presence of FH variants was associated with a 2-fold higher CHD risk, even when LDL-C was only moderately elevated. The increased CHD risk appeared to be largely explained by the higher cumulative LDL-C exposure in individuals with an FH variant compared to those without. Further research is needed to assess the value of adding genetic testing to traditional phenotypic FH screening.

Effectiveness of Hypertension Management Strategies in SPRINT-Eligible US Adults: A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Despite reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and death in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), intensive systolic blood pressure goals have not been adopted in the United States. This study aimed to simulate the potential long-term impact of 4 hypertension management strategies in SPRINT-eligible US adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The validated Blood Pressure Control-Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a discrete event simulation of hypertension care processes (ie, visit frequency, blood pressure [BP] measurement accuracy, medication intensification, and medication adherence) and CVD outcomes, was populated with 25 000 SPRINT-eligible US adults. Four hypertension management strategies were simulated: (1) usual care targeting BP <140/90 mm Hg (Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure usual care), (2) intensive care per the SPRINT protocol targeting BP <120/90 mm Hg (SPRINT intensive), (3) usual care targeting guideline-recommended BP <130/80 mm Hg (American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association usual care), and (4) team-based care added to usual care and targeting BP <130/80 mm Hg. Relative to the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure usual care, among the 18.1 million SPRINT-eligible US adults, an estimated 138 100 total CVD events could be prevented per year with SPRINT intensive, 33 900 with American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association usual care, and 89 100 with team-based care. Compared with the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure usual care, SPRINT intensive care was projected to increase treatment-related serious adverse events by 77 600 per year, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association usual care by 33 300, and team-based care by 27 200.

CONCLUSIONS

As BP control has declined in recent years, health systems must prioritize hypertension management and invest in effective strategies. Adding team-based care to usual care may be a pragmatic way to manage risk in this high-CVD-risk population.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of initial treatment with single-pill combination antihypertensive medications

Hypertension guidelines recommend initiating treatment with single pill combination (SPC) antihypertensive medications, but SPCs are used by only one-third of treated hypertensive US adults. This analysis estimated the cost-effectiveness of initial treatment with SPC dual antihypertensive medications compared with usual care monotherapy in hypertensive US adults.The validated BP Control Model-Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model simulated initial SPC dual therapy (two half-standard doses in a single pill) compared with initial usual care monotherapy (half-standard dose when baseline systolic BP < 20 mmHg above goal and one standard dose when ≥20 mmHg above goal). Secondary analyses examined equivalent dose monotherapy (one standard dose) and equivalent dose dual therapy as separate pills (two half-standard doses). The primary outcomes were direct healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over 10 years from a US healthcare sector perspective.At 10 years, initial dual drug SPC was projected to yield 0.028 (95%UI 0.008 to 0.051) more QALYs at no greater cost ($73, 95%UI -$1 983 to $1 629) than usual care monotherapy. In secondary analysis, SPC dual therapy was cost-effective vs. equivalent dose monotherapy (ICER $8 000/QALY gained) and equivalent dose dual therapy as separate pills (ICER $57 000/QALY gained). At average drug prices, initiating antihypertensive treatment with SPC dual therapy is more effective at no greater cost than usual care initial monotherapy and has the potential to improve BP control rates and reduce the burden of CVD in the US.

Investigating Associations of Omega-3 Fatty Acids, Lung Function Decline, and Airway Obstruction

Rationale: Inflammation contributes to lung function decline and the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Omega-3 fatty acids have antiinflammatory properties and may benefit lung health. Objectives: To investigate associations of omega-3 fatty acids with lung function decline and incident airway obstruction in a diverse sample of adults from general-population cohorts. Methods: Complementary study designs: 1) longitudinal study of plasma phospholipid omega-3 fatty acids and repeated FEV1 and FVC measures in the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study and 2) two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study of genetically predicted omega-3 fatty acids and lung function parameters. Measurements and Main Results: The longitudinal study found that higher omega-3 fatty acid levels were associated with attenuated lung function decline in 15,063 participants, with the largest effect sizes for the most metabolically downstream omega-3 fatty acid, docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). An increase in DHA of 1% of total fatty acids was associated with attenuations of 1.4 ml/yr for FEV1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.8) and 2.0 ml/yr for FVC (95% CI, 1.6-2.4) and a 7% lower incidence of spirometry-defined airway obstruction (95% CI, 0.89-0.97). DHA associations persisted across sexes and smoking histories and in Black, White, and Hispanic participants, with associations of the largest magnitude in former smokers and Hispanic participants. The MR study showed similar trends toward positive associations of genetically predicted downstream omega-3 fatty acids with FEV1 and FVC. Conclusions: The longitudinal and MR studies provide evidence supporting beneficial effects of higher levels of downstream omega-3 fatty acids, especially DHA, on lung health.

Cardiovascular Autonomic Function and Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Hospitalizations in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities

Rationale: The autonomic nervous system extensively innervates the lungs, but its role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outcomes has not been well studied. Objective: We assessed relationships between cardiovascular autonomic nervous system measures (heart rate variability [HRV] and orthostatic hypotension [OH]) and incident COPD hospitalization in the multicenter ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study. Methods: We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals between baseline (1987-1989) autonomic function measures (HRV measures from 2-minute electrocardiograms and OH variables) and incident COPD hospitalizations through 2019. Adjusted analyses included demographic data, smoking status, lung function, comorbidities, and physical activity. We also performed analyses stratified by baseline airflow obstruction. Results: Of the 11,625 participants, (mean age, 53.8 yr), 56.5% were female and 26.3% identified as Black. Baseline mean percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second was 94 ± 17% (standard deviation), and 2,599 participants (22.4%) had airflow obstruction. During a median follow-up time of 26.9 years, there were 2,406 incident COPD hospitalizations. Higher HRV (i.e., better autonomic function) was associated with a lower risk of incident COPD hospitalization. Markers of worse autonomic function (OH and greater orthostatic changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure) were associated with a higher risk of incident COPD hospitalization (hazard ratio for the presence of OH, 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.92). In stratified analyses, results were more robust in participants without airflow obstruction at baseline. Conclusions: In this large multicenter prospective community cohort, better cardiovascular autonomic function at baseline was associated with a lower risk of subsequent hospitalization for COPD, particularly among participants without evidence of lung disease at baseline.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Team-Based Care for Hypertension: A Meta-Analysis and Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Team-based care (TBC), a team of ≥2 healthcare professionals working collaboratively toward a shared clinical goal, is a recommended strategy to manage blood pressure (BP). However, the most effective and cost-effective TBC strategy is unknown.

METHODS

A meta-analysis of clinical trials in US adults (aged ≥20 years) with uncontrolled hypertension (≥140/90 mm Hg) was performed to estimate the systolic BP reduction for TBC strategies versus usual care at 12 months. TBC strategies were stratified by the inclusion of a nonphysician team member who could titrate antihypertensive medications. The validated BP Control Model-Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model was used to project the expected BP reductions out to 10 years and simulate cardiovascular disease events, direct healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life years, and cost-effectiveness of TBC with physician and nonphysician titration.

RESULTS

Among 19 studies comprising 5993 participants, the 12-month systolic BP change versus usual care was -5.0 (95% CI, -7.9 to -2.2) mm Hg for TBC with physician titration and -10.5 (-16.2 to -4.8) mm Hg for TBC with nonphysician titration. Relative to usual care at 10 years, TBC with nonphysician titration was estimated to cost $95 (95% uncertainty interval, -$563 to $664) more per patient and gain 0.022 (0.003-0.042) quality-adjusted life years, costing $4400/quality-adjusted life year gained. TBC with physician titration was estimated to cost more and gain fewer quality-adjusted life years than TBC with nonphysician titration.

CONCLUSIONS

TBC with nonphysician titration yields superior hypertension outcomes compared with other strategies and is a cost-effective way to reduce hypertension-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

Association of Rare Protein-Truncating DNA Variants in APOB or PCSK9 With Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Level and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease

Importance

Protein-truncating variants (PTVs) in apolipoprotein B (APOB) and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) are associated with significantly lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol concentrations. The association of these PTVs with coronary heart disease (CHD) warrants further characterization in large, multiracial prospective cohort studies.

Objective

To evaluate the association of PTVs in APOB and PCSK9 with LDL cholesterol concentrations and CHD risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This studied included participants from 5 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) studies and the UK Biobank. NHLBI study participants aged 5 to 84 years were recruited between 1971 and 2002 across the US and underwent whole-genome sequencing. UK Biobank participants aged 40 to 69 years were recruited between 2006 and 2010 in the UK and underwent whole-exome sequencing. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to October 2022.

Exposures

PTVs in APOB and PCSK9.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Estimated untreated LDL cholesterol levels and CHD.

Results

Among 19 073 NHLBI participants (10 598 [55.6%] female; mean [SD] age, 52 [17] years), 139 (0.7%) carried an APOB or PCSK9 PTV, which was associated with 49 mg/dL (95% CI, 43-56) lower estimated untreated LDL cholesterol level. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 21.5 (13.9-29.4) years, incident CHD was observed in 12 of 139 carriers (8.6%) vs 3029 of 18 934 noncarriers (16.0%), corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.28-0.89; P = .02). Among 190 464 UK Biobank participants (104 831 [55.0%] female; mean [SD] age, 57 [8] years), 662 (0.4%) carried a PTV, which was associated with 45 mg/dL (95% CI, 42-47) lower estimated untreated LDL cholesterol level. Estimated CHD risk by age 75 years was 3.7% (95% CI, 2.0-5.3) in carriers vs 7.0% (95% CI, 6.9-7.2) in noncarriers, corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.81; P = .004).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among 209 537 individuals in this study, 0.4% carried an APOB or PCSK9 PTV that was associated with less exposure to LDL cholesterol and a 49% lower risk of CHD.

The Health and Economic Impact of Using a Sugar Sweetened Beverage Tax to Fund Fruit and Vegetable Subsidies in New York City: A Modeling Study

Low fruit and vegetable (FV) intake and high sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption are independently associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Many people in New York City (NYC) have low FV intake and high SSB consumption, partly due to high cost of fresh FVs and low cost of and easy access to SSBs. A potential implementation of an SSB tax and an FV subsidy program could result in substantial public health and economic benefits. We used a validated microsimulation model for predicting CVD events to estimate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of SSB taxes, FV subsidies, and funding FV subsidies with an SSB tax in NYC. Population demographics and health profiles were estimated using data from the NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Policy effects and price elasticity were derived from recent meta-analyses. We found that funding FV subsidies with an SSB tax was projected to be the most cost-effective policy from the healthcare sector perspective. From the societal perspective, the most cost-effective policy was SSB taxes. All policy scenarios could prevent more CVD events and save more healthcare costs among men compared to women, and among Black vs. White adults. Public health practitioners and policymakers may want to consider adopting this combination of policy actions, while weighing feasibility considerations and other unintended consequences.

Investigating associations of omega-3 fatty acids, lung function decline, and airway obstruction

Rationale

Inflammation contributes to lung function decline and the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Omega-3 fatty acids have anti-inflammatory properties and may benefit lung health.

Objectives

Investigate associations of omega-3 fatty acids with lung function decline and incident airway obstruction in adults of diverse races/ethnicities from general population cohorts.

Methods

Complementary study designs: (1) longitudinal study of plasma phospholipid omega-3 fatty acids and repeated FEV 1 and FVC measures in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Pooled Cohorts Study, and (2) two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) study of genetically predicted omega-3 fatty acids and lung function parameters.

Measurements and Main Results

The longitudinal study found that higher omega-3 fatty acid concentrations were associated with attenuated lung function decline in 15,063 participants, with the largest effect sizes for docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). One standard deviation higher DHA was associated with an attenuation of 1.8 mL/year for FEV 1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-2.2) and 2.4 mL/year for FVC (95% CI 1.9-3.0). One standard deviation higher DHA was also associated with a 9% lower incidence of spirometry-defined airway obstruction (95% CI 0.86-0.97). DHA associations persisted across sexes, smoking histories, and Black, white and Hispanic participants, with the largest magnitude associations in former smokers and Hispanics. The MR study showed positive associations of genetically predicted omega-3 fatty acids with FEV 1 and FVC, with statistically significant findings across multiple MR methods.

Conclusions

The longitudinal and MR studies provide evidence supporting beneficial effects of higher circulating omega-3 fatty acids, especially DHA, on lung health.

Assessing the contribution of rare genetic variants to phenotypes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using whole-genome sequence data

RATIONALE

Genetic variation has a substantial contribution to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung function measurements. Heritability estimates using genome-wide genotyping data can be biased if analyses do not appropriately account for the nonuniform distribution of genetic effects across the allele frequency and linkage disequilibrium (LD) spectrum. In addition, the contribution of rare variants has been unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess the heritability of COPD and lung function using whole-genome sequence data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program.

METHODS

Using the genome-based restricted maximum likelihood method, we partitioned the genome into bins based on minor allele frequency and LD scores and estimated heritability of COPD, FEV1% predicted and FEV1/FVC ratio in 11 051 European ancestry and 5853 African-American participants.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In European ancestry participants, the estimated heritability of COPD, FEV1% predicted and FEV1/FVC ratio were 35.5%, 55.6% and 32.5%, of which 18.8%, 19.7%, 17.8% were from common variants, and 16.6%, 35.8%, and 14.6% were from rare variants. These estimates had wide confidence intervals, with common variants and some sets of rare variants showing a statistically significant contribution (P-value < 0.05). In African-Americans, common variant heritability was similar to European ancestry participants, but lower sample size precluded calculation of rare variant heritability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides updated and unbiased estimates of heritability for COPD and lung function, and suggests an important contribution of rare variants. Larger studies of more diverse ancestry will improve accuracy of these estimates.

Decline in Lung Function From Mid-to Late-Life With Central Arterial Stiffness: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

We investigated the association of lung function at mid-life, later in life, and its 20-year decline, with arterial stiffness later in life. We examined 5720 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants who attended Visits 1 (1987-1989) and 5 (2011-2013). Lung function measures were forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), obtained at Visits 1, 2 (1990-1992), and 5. Central artery stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity [cfPWV]) was measured at Visit 5. We evaluated associations of lung function with later-life central artery stiffness and cfPWV >75th percentile by multivariable linear and logistic regressions. Lung function at Visit 1 (FEV1 β: -26, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -48, -5; FVC β: -14, 95% CI: -32, 5) and Visit 5 (FEV1 β: -22, 95% CI: -46, 2; FVC β: -18, 95% CI: -38, 2) were inversely associated with cfPWV at Visit 5, and with odds of high cfPWV in fully adjusted models. Twenty-year decline in lung function was not associated with continuous or dichotomous measures of arterial stiffness (FEV1 β: 11, 95% CI: -46, 68; FVC β: -4, 95% CI: -52, 43). Lung function at mid-life and late-life was inversely associated with arterial stiffness in later life.

The Relationship Between BMI and Lung Function in Populations with Different Characteristics: A Cross-Sectional Study Based on the Enjoying Breathing Program in China

Purpose

To analyze the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and lung function, which may help optimize the screening and management process for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the early stages.

Patients and Methods

In this cross-sectional study using data from the Enjoying Breathing Program in China, participants were divided into two groups according to COPD Screening Questionnaire (COPD-SQ) scores (at risk and not at risk of COPD) and three groups based on lung function (normal lung function, preserved ratio impaired spirometry [PRISm], and obstructive lung function).

Results

A total of 32,033 subjects were enrolled in the current analysis. First, in people at risk of COPD, overweight and obese participants had better forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1; overweight: 0.33 liters (l), 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.27 to 0.38; obesity: 0.31 L, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.39) values than the normal BMI group. Second, among people with PRISm, underweight participants had a lower FEV1 (−0.56 L, 95% CI: −0.86 to −0.26) and forced vital capacity (FVC; −0.33 L, 95% CI: −0.55 to −0.11) than participants with a normal weight, and obese participants had a higher FEV1 (0.22 L, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.42) and FVC (0.16 L, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.30) than participants with a normal weight. Taking normal BMI as the reference group, lower FEV1 (−0.80 L, 95% CI: −0.97 to −0.63) and FVC (−0.53 L, 95% CI: −0.64 to −0.42) were found in underweight participants with obstructive spirometry, and better FEV1 (obesity: 0.26 L, 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.40) was found in obese participants with obstructive spirometry.

Conclusion

Being underweight and severely obese are associated with reduced lung function. Slight obesity was shown to be a protective factor for lung function in people at risk of COPD and those with PRISm.

Race and Sex Differences in Mortality in Individuals with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: Despite differences in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) comorbidities, race- and sex-based differences in all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality are not well described. Objectives: To examine mortality differences in COPD by race-sex and underlying mechanisms. Methods: Medicare claims were used to identify COPD among REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) cohort participants. Mortality rates were calculated using adjudicated causes of death. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality comparing race-sex groups were modeled with Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: In the 2,148-member COPD subcohort, 49% were women, and 34% were Black individuals; 1,326 deaths occurred over a median 7.5 years (interquartile range, 3.9-10.5 yr) follow-up. All-cause mortality per 1,000 person-years comparing Black versus White men was 101.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.3-115.8) versus 93.9 (95% CI, 86.3-102.3; P = 0.99); comparing Black versus White women, all-cause mortality per 1,000 person-years was 74.2 (95% CI, 65.0-84.8) versus 70.6 (95% CI, 63.5-78.5; P = 0.99). Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was the leading cause-specific mortality among all race-sex groups. HR for CVD and chronic lung disease mortality were nonsignificant comparing Black versus White men. HR for CVD death was higher in Black compared with White women (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.95), whereas chronic lung disease death was lower (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.25-0.77). These differences were attributable to higher CVD risk factor burden among Black women. Conclusions: In the REGARDS COPD cohort, there were no race-sex differences in all-cause mortality. CVD was the most common cause of death for all race-sex groups with COPD. Black women with COPD had a higher risk of CVD-related mortality than White women. CVD comorbidity management, especially among Black individuals, may improve mortality outcomes.

Pooled Cohort Probability Score for Subclinical Airflow Obstruction

Rationale: Early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a public health priority. Airflow obstruction is the single most important risk factor for adverse COPD outcomes, but spirometry is not routinely recommended for screening. Objectives: To describe the burden of subclinical airflow obstruction (SAO) and to develop a probability score for SAO to inform potential detection and prevention programs. Methods: Lung function and clinical data were harmonized and pooled across nine U.S. general population cohorts. Adults with respiratory symptoms, inhaler use, or prior diagnosis of COPD or asthma were excluded. A probability score for prevalent SAO (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70) was developed via hierarchical group-lasso regularization from clinical variables in strata of sex and smoking status, and its discriminative accuracy for SAO was assessed in the pooled cohort as well as in an external validation cohort (NHANES [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey] 2011-2012). Incident hospitalizations and deaths due to COPD (respiratory events) were defined by adjudication or administrative criteria in four of nine cohorts. Results: Of 33,546 participants (mean age 52 yr, 54% female, 44% non-Hispanic White), 4,424 (13.2%) had prevalent SAO. The incidence of respiratory events (Nat-risk = 14,024) was threefold higher in participants with SAO versus those without (152 vs. 39 events/10,000 person-years). The probability score, which was based on six commonly available variables (age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, and smoking pack-years) was well calibrated and showed excellent discrimination in both the testing sample (C-statistic, 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.82) and in NHANES (C-statistic, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.86). Among participants with predicted probabilities ⩾ 15%, 3.2 would need to undergo spirometry to detect one case of SAO. Conclusions: Adults with SAO demonstrate excess respiratory hospitalization and mortality. A probability score for SAO using commonly available clinical risk factors may be suitable for targeting screening and primary prevention strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Masked Hypertension Screening and Treatment in US Adults With Suspected Masked Hypertension: A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Recent US blood pressure (BP) guidelines recommend using ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) or home BP monitoring (HBPM) to screen adults for masked hypertension. However, limited evidence exists of the expected long-term effects of screening for and treating masked hypertension.

METHODS

We estimated the lifetime health and economic outcomes of screening for and treating masked hypertension using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, a validated microsimulation model. We simulated a cohort of 100,000 US adults aged ≥20 years with suspected masked hypertension (i.e., office BP 120-129/<80 mm Hg, not taking antihypertensive medications, without CVD history). We compared usual care only (i.e., no screening), usual care plus ABPM, and usual care plus HBPM. We projected total direct healthcare costs (2021 USD), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Future costs and QALYs were discounted 3% annually. Secondary outcomes included CVD events and serious adverse events.

RESULTS

Relative to usual care, adding masked hypertension screening and treatment with ABPM and HBPM was projected to prevent 14.3 and 20.5 CVD events per 100,000 person-years, increase the proportion experiencing any treatment-related serious adverse events by 2.7 and 5.1 percentage points, and increase mean total costs by $1,076 and $1,046, respectively. Compared with usual care, adding ABPM was estimated to cost $85,164/QALY gained. HBPM resulted in lower QALYs than usual care due to increased treatment-related adverse events and pill-taking disutility.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from our simulation study suggest screening with ABPM and treating masked hypertension is cost-effective in US adults with suspected masked hypertension.

Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults comprising 14 established US prospective cohort studies. Starting as early as 1971, investigators in the C4R cohort studies have collected data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R links this pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotyping to information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and acute and postacute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the United States. C4R ascertains SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey conducted via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations and high-quality event surveillance. Extensive prepandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these data will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including postacute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term health trajectories.

Lung function impairment and risk of incident heart failure: the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study

AIMS

The aim is to evaluate associations of lung function impairment with risk of incident heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were pooled across eight US population-based cohorts that enrolled participants from 1987 to 2004. Participants with self-reported baseline cardiovascular disease were excluded. Spirometry was used to define obstructive [forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) <0.70] or restrictive (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70, FVC <80%) lung physiology. The incident HF was defined as hospitalization or death caused by HF. In a sub-set, HF events were sub-classified as HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF <50%) or preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥50%). The Fine-Gray proportional sub-distribution hazards models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, smoking, and cardiovascular risk factors. In models of incident HF sub-types, HFrEF, HFpEF, and non-HF mortality were treated as competing risks. Among 31 677 adults, there were 3344 incident HF events over a median follow-up of 21.0 years. Of 2066 classifiable HF events, 1030 were classified as HFrEF and 1036 as HFpEF. Obstructive [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.27] and restrictive physiology (adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.27-1.62) were associated with incident HF. Obstructive and restrictive ventilatory defects were associated with HFpEF but not HFrEF. The magnitude of the association between restrictive physiology and HFpEF was similar to associations with hypertension, diabetes, and smoking.

CONCLUSION

Lung function impairment was associated with increased risk of incident HF, and particularly incident HFpEF, independent of and to a similar extent as major known cardiovascular risk factors.

Estimated Cost-effectiveness of Medical Therapy, Sleeve Gastrectomy, and Gastric Bypass in Patients With Severe Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes

Importance

Bariatric surgery is recommended for patients with severe obesity (body mass index ≥40) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the most cost-effective treatment remains unclear and may depend on the patient's T2D severity.

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of medical therapy, sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) among patients with severe obesity and T2D, stratified by T2D severity.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This economic evaluation used a microsimulation model to project health and cost outcomes of medical therapy, SG, and RYGB over 5 years. Time horizons varied between 10 and 30 years in sensitivity analyses. Model inputs were derived from clinical trials, large cohort studies, national databases, and published literature. Probabilistic sampling of model inputs accounted for parameter uncertainty. Estimates of US adults with severe obesity and T2D were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Data analysis was performed from January 2020 to August 2021.

Exposures

Medical therapy, SG, and RYGB.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (in 2020 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were projected, with future cost and QALYs discounted 3.0% annually. A strategy was deemed cost-effective if the ICER was less than $100 000 per QALY. The preferred strategy resulted in the greatest number of QALYs gained while being cost-effective.

Results

The model simulated 1000 cohorts of 10 000 patients, of whom 16% had mild T2D, 56% had moderate T2D, and 28% had severe T2D at baseline. The mean age of simulated patients was 54.6 years (95% CI, 54.2-55.0 years), 61.6% (95% CI, 60.1%-63.4%) were female, and 65.1% (95% CI, 63.6%-66.7%) were non-Hispanic White. Compared with medical therapy over 5 years, RYGB was associated with the most QALYs gained in the overall population (mean, 0.44 QALY; 95% CI, 0.21-0.86 QALY) and when stratified by baseline T2D severity: mild (mean, 0.59 QALY; 95% CI, 0.35-0.98 QALY), moderate (mean, 0.50 QALY; 95% CI, 0.25-0.88 QALY), and severe (mean, 0.30 QALY; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79 QALY). RYGB was the preferred strategy in the overall population (ICER, $46 877 per QALY; 83.0% probability preferred) and when stratified by baseline T2D severity: mild (ICER, $36 479 per QALY; 73.7% probability preferred), moderate (ICER, $37 056 per QALY; 85.6% probability preferred), and severe (ICER, $98 940 per QALY; 40.2% probability preferred). The cost-effectiveness of RYGB improved over a longer time horizon.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery vary by baseline severity of T2D. Over a 5-year time horizon, RYGB is projected to be the preferred treatment strategy for patients with severe obesity regardless of baseline T2D severity.

Association Between Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry and Clinical Outcomes in US Adults

Importance

Chronic lung diseases are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Unlike chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, clinical outcomes associated with proportional reductions in expiratory lung volumes without obstruction, otherwise known as preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm), are poorly understood.

Objective

To examine the prevalence, correlates, and clinical outcomes associated with PRISm in US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study was a retrospective study with harmonized pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts (enrollment, 65 251 participants aged 18 to 102 years of whom 53 701 participants had valid baseline lung function) conducted from 1971-2011 (final follow-up, December 2018).

Exposures

Participants were categorized into mutually exclusive groups by baseline lung function. PRISm was defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second to forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) greater than or equal to 0.70 and FEV1 less than 80% predicted; obstructive spirometry FEV1:FVC ratio of less than 0.70; and normal spirometry FEV1:FVC ratio greater than or equal to 0.7 and FEV1 greater than or equal to 80% predicted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, respiratory-related mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD)-related mortality, respiratory-related events (hospitalizations and mortality), and CHD-related events (hospitalizations and mortality) classified by adjudication or validated administrative criteria. Absolute risks were adjusted for age and smoking status. Poisson and Cox proportional hazards models comparing PRISm vs normal spirometry were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, body mass index, smoking status, cohort, and comorbidities.

Results

Among all participants (mean [SD] age, 53.2 [15.8] years, 56.4% women, 48.5% never-smokers), 4582 (8.5%) had PRISm. The presence of PRISm relative to normal spirometry was significantly associated with obesity (prevalence, 48.3% vs 31.4%; prevalence ratio [PR], 1.68 [95% CI, 1.55-1.82]), underweight (prevalence, 1.4% vs 1.0%; PR, 2.20 [95% CI, 1.72-2.82]), female sex (prevalence, 60.3% vs 59.0%; PR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.13]), and current smoking (prevalence, 25.2% vs 17.5%; PR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.22-1.45]). PRISm, compared with normal spirometry, was significantly associated with greater all-cause mortality (29.6/1000 person-years vs 18.0/1000 person-years; difference, 11.6/1000 person-years [95% CI, 10.0-13.1]; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.50 [95% CI, 1.42-1.59]), respiratory-related mortality (2.1/1000 person-years vs 1.0/1000 person-years; difference, 1.1/1000 person-years [95% CI, 0.7-1.6]; adjusted HR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.54-2.48]), CHD-related mortality (5.4/1000 person-years vs 2.6/1000 person-years; difference, 2.7/1000 person-years [95% CI, 2.1-3.4]; adjusted HR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.36-1.77]), respiratory-related events (12.2/1000 person-years vs 6.0/1000 person-years; difference, 6.2/1000 person-years [95% CI, 4.9-7.5]; adjusted HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.69-2.14]), and CHD-related events (11.7/1000 person-years vs 7.0/1000 person-years; difference, 4.7/1000 person-years [95% CI, 3.7-5.8]; adjusted HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.18-1.42]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In a large, population-based sample of US adults, baseline PRISm, compared with normal spirometry, was associated with a small but statistically significant increased risk for mortality and adverse cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes. Further research is needed to explore whether this association is causal.

Associations of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference in Young Adulthood with Later Life Incident Diabetes

CONTEXT

The independent contribution of young adult exposure to overweight and obesity to later-life incident diabetes is not well studied.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of exposures to elevated body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in young adulthood (ages 18-39 years) with incident diabetes later in life (≥40 years).

DESIGN

Pooled data from 6 US prospective cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Cardiovascular Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, (4) Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort, (5) Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, and (6) Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

SETTING

Population-based cohort studies.

PARTICIPANTS

30 780 participants (56.1% female, 69.8% non-Hispanic white) without a diagnosis of diabetes by age 40.

INTERVENTIONS

We imputed BMI and WC trajectories from age 18 for every participant and estimated time-weighted average exposures to BMI or WC during young adulthood and later life.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Incident diabetes defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, nonfasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, or use of diabetes medications.

RESULTS

During a 9-year median follow-up, 4323 participants developed incident diabetes. Young adult BMI and WC were associated with later-life incident diabetes after controlling for later-life exposures [hazard ratios (HR) 1.99 for BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and 2.13 for WC > 88cm (women)/>102cm (men) compared to normal ranges]. Young adult homeostatic model of insulin resistance mediated 49% and 44% of the association between BMI and WC with later-life incident diabetes. High-density lipoproteins and triglycerides mediated a smaller proportion of these associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated BMI and WC during young adulthood were independently associated with later-life incident diabetes. Insulin resistance may be a key mediator.

Cost-Effectiveness of Lipid-Lowering Treatments in Young Adults

BACKGROUND

Raised low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in young adulthood (aged 18-39 years) is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) later in life. Most young adults with elevated LDL-C do not currently receive lipid-lowering treatment.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of elevated LDL-C in ASCVD-free U.S. young adults and the cost-effectiveness of lipid-lowering strategies for raised LDL-C in young adulthood compared with standard care.

METHODS

The prevalence of raised LDL-C was examined in the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The CVD Policy Model projected lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health care costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for lipid-lowering strategies. Standard care was statin treatment for adults aged ≥40 years based on LDL-C, ASCVD risk, or diabetes plus young adults with LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL. Lipid lowering incremental to standard care with moderate-intensity statins or intensive lifestyle interventions was simulated starting when young adult LDL-C was either ≥160 mg/dL or ≥130 mg/dL.

RESULTS

Approximately 27% of ASCVD-free young adults have LDL-C of ≥130 mg/dL, and 9% have LDL-C of ≥160 mg/dL. The model projected that young adult lipid lowering with statins or lifestyle interventions would prevent lifetime ASCVD events and increase QALYs compared with standard care. ICERs were US$31,000/QALY for statins in young adult men with LDL-C of ≥130 mg/dL and US$106,000/QALY for statins in young adult women with LDL-C of ≥130 mg/dL. Intensive lifestyle intervention was more costly and less effective than statin therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin treatment for LDL-C of ≥130 mg/dL is highly cost-effective in young adult men and intermediately cost-effective in young adult women.

A System for Phenotype Harmonization in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program

Genotype-phenotype association studies often combine phenotype data from multiple studies to increase statistical power. Harmonization of the data usually requires substantial effort due to heterogeneity in phenotype definitions, study design, data collection procedures, and data-set organization. Here we describe a centralized system for phenotype harmonization that includes input from phenotype domain and study experts, quality control, documentation, reproducible results, and data-sharing mechanisms. This system was developed for the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program, which is generating genomic and other -omics data for more than 80 studies with extensive phenotype data. To date, 63 phenotypes have been harmonized across thousands of participants (recruited in 1948-2012) from up to 17 studies per phenotype. Here we discuss challenges in this undertaking and how they were addressed. The harmonized phenotype data and associated documentation have been submitted to National Institutes of Health data repositories for controlled access by the scientific community. We also provide materials to facilitate future harmonization efforts by the community, which include 1) the software code used to generate the 63 harmonized phenotypes, enabling others to reproduce, modify, or extend these harmonizations to additional studies, and 2) the results of labeling thousands of phenotype variables with controlled vocabulary terms.

Electronic Health Records and Pulmonary Function Data: Developing an Interoperability Roadmap. An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report

A workshop "Electronic Health Records and Pulmonary Function Data: Developing an Interoperability Roadmap" was held at the American Thoracic Society 2019 International Conference. "Interoperability" is defined as is the ability of different information-technology systems and software applications to directly communicate, exchange data, and use the information that has been exchanged. At present, pulmonary function test (PFT) equipment is not required to be interoperable with other clinical data systems, including electronic health records (EHRs). For this workshop, we assembled a diverse group of experts and stakeholders, including representatives from patient-advocacy groups, adult and pediatric general and pulmonary medicine, informatics, government and healthcare organizations, pulmonary function laboratories, and EHR and PFT equipment and software companies. The participants were tasked with two overarching Aobjectives: 1) identifying the key obstacles to achieving interoperability of PFT systems and the EHR and 2) recommending solutions to the identified obstacles. Successful interoperability of PFT data with the EHR impacts the full scope of individual patient health and clinical care, population health, and research. The existing EHR-PFT device platforms lack sufficient data standardization to promote interoperability. Cost is a major obstacle to PFT-EHR interoperability, and incentives are insufficient to justify the needed investment. The current vendor-EHR system lacks sufficient flexibility, thereby impeding interoperability. To advance the goal of achieving interoperability, next steps include identifying and standardizing priority PFT data elements. To increase the motivation of stakeholders to invest in this effort, it is necessary to demonstrate the benefits of PFT interoperability across patient care and population health.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Treatment by Pharmacists in Black Barbershops

BACKGROUND

In LABBPS (Los Angeles Barbershop Blood Pressure Study), pharmacist-led hypertension care in Los Angeles County Black-owned barbershops significantly improved blood pressure control in non-Hispanic Black men with uncontrolled hypertension at baseline. In this analysis, 10-year health outcomes and health care costs of 1 year of the LABBPS intervention versus control are projected.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation of hypertension care processes projected blood pressure, medication-related adverse events, fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease events, and noncardiovascular disease death in LABBPS participants. Program costs, total direct health care costs (2019 US dollars), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for the LABBPS intervention and control arms from a health care sector perspective over a 10-year horizon. Future costs and QALYs were discounted 3% annually. High and intermediate cost-effectiveness thresholds were defined as <$50 000 and <$150 000 per QALY gained, respectively.

RESULTS

At 10 years, the intervention was projected to cost an average of $2356 (95% uncertainty interval, -$264 to $4611) more per participant than the control arm and gain 0.06 (95% uncertainty interval, 0.01-0.10) QALYs. The LABBPS intervention was highly cost-effective, with a mean cost of $42 717 per QALY gained (58% probability of being highly and 96% of being at least intermediately cost-effective). Exclusive use of generic drugs improved the cost-effectiveness to $17 162 per QALY gained. The LABBPS intervention would be only intermediately cost-effective if pharmacists were less likely to intensify antihypertensive medications when systolic blood pressure was ≥150 mm Hg or if pharmacist weekly time driving to barbershops increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension care delivered by clinical pharmacists in Black barbershops is a highly cost-effective way to improve blood pressure control in Black men.

Estimating Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Participant Posttrial Survival Using Pooled Epidemiologic Cohort Data

Background

Intensive systolic blood pressure treatment (<120 mm Hg) in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) improved survival compared with standard treatment (<140 mm Hg) over a median follow‐up of 3.3 years. We projected life expectancy after observed follow‐up in SPRINT using SPRINT‐eligible participants in the NHLBI‐PCS (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Pooled Cohorts Study).

Methods and Results

We used propensity scores to weight SPRINT‐eligible NHLBI‐PCS participants to resemble SPRINT participants. In SPRINT participants, we estimated in‐trial survival (<4 years) using a time‐based flexible parametric survival model. In SPRINT‐eligible NHLBI‐PCS participants, we estimated posttrial survival (≥4 years) using an age‐based flexible parametric survival model and applied the formula to SPRINT participants to predict posttrial survival. We projected overall life expectancy for each SPRINT participant and compared it to parametric regression (eg, Gompertz) projections based on SPRINT data alone. We included 8584 SPRINT and 10 593 SPRINT‐eligible NHLBI‐PCS participants. After propensity weighting, mean (SD) age was 67.9 (9.4) and 68.2 (8.8) years, and 35.5% and 37.6% were women in SPRINT and NHLBI‐PCS, respectively. Using the NHLBI‐PCS–based method, projected mean life expectancy from randomization was 21.0 (7.4) years with intensive and 19.1 (7.2) years with standard treatment. Using the Gompertz regression, life expectancy was 11.2 (2.3) years with intensive and 10.5 (2.2) years with standard treatment.

Conclusions

Combining SPRINT and NHLBI‐PCS observed data likely offers a more realistic estimate of life expectancy than parametrically extrapolating SPRINT data alone. These results offer insight into the potential long‐term effectiveness of intensive SBP goals.

Association of Midlife Cardiovascular Risk Factors With the Risk of Heart Failure Subtypes Later in Life

BACKGROUND

Independent associations between cardiovascular risk factor exposures during midlife and later life development of heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) versus reduced EF (HFrEF) have not been previously studied.

METHODS

We pooled data from 4 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Cardiovascular Health, Health , Aging and Body Composition, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and imputed annual risk factor trajectories for body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose starting from age 40 years. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during midlife and later life were calculated and analyzed for associations with the development of HFpEF or HFrEF.

RESULTS

A total of 23,861 participants were included (mean age at first in-person visit, 61.8 ±1 0.2 years; 56.6% female). During a median follow-up of 12 years, there were 3666 incident HF events, of which 51% had EF measured, including 934 with HFpEF and 739 with HFrEF. A high midlife systolic blood pressure and low midlife high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with HFrEF, and a high midlife body mass index, systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and glucose were associated with HFpEF. After adjusting for later life exposures, only midlife pulse pressure remained independently associated with HFpEF.

CONCLUSIONS

Midlife exposure to cardiovascular risk factors are differentially associated with HFrEF and HFpEF later in life. Having a higher pulse pressure during midlife is associated with a greater risk for HFpEF but not HFrEF, independent of later life exposures.

Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comprising 14 established United States (US) prospective cohort studies. For decades, C4R cohorts have collected extensive data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R will link this pre-COVID phenotyping to information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute and post-acute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and broadly reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the US. C4R is ascertaining severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations, and high-quality events surveillance. Extensive pre-pandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are being harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This unique resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including post-acute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term trajectories of health and aging.

Whole genome sequence analysis of pulmonary function and COPD in 19,996 multi-ethnic participants

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diagnosed by reduced lung function, is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. We performed whole genome sequence (WGS) analysis of lung function and COPD in a multi-ethnic sample of 11,497 participants from population- and family-based studies, and 8499 individuals from COPD-enriched studies in the NHLBI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program. We identify at genome-wide significance 10 known GWAS loci and 22 distinct, previously unreported loci, including two common variant signals from stratified analysis of African Americans. Four novel common variants within the regions of PIAS1, RGN (two variants) and FTO show evidence of replication in the UK Biobank (European ancestry n ~ 320,000), while colocalization analyses leveraging multi-omic data from GTEx and TOPMed identify potential molecular mechanisms underlying four of the 22 novel loci. Our study demonstrates the value of performing WGS analyses and multi-omic follow-up in cohorts of diverse ancestry.

A Dyadic Growth Modeling Approach for Examining Associations Between Weight Gain and Lung Function Decline

The relationship between body weight and lung function is complex. Using a dyadic multilevel linear modeling approach, treating body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) and lung function as paired, within-person outcomes, we tested the hypothesis that persons with more rapid increase in BMI exhibit more rapid decline in lung function, as measured by forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and their ratio (FEV1:FVC). Models included random intercepts and slopes and adjusted for sociodemographic and smoking-related factors. A sample of 9,115 adults with paired measurements of BMI and lung function taken at ≥3 visits were selected from a pooled set of 5 US population-based cohort studies (1983-2018; mean age at baseline = 46 years; median follow-up, 19 years). At age 46 years, average annual rates of change in BMI, FEV1, FVC, and FEV1:FVC ratio were 0.22 kg/m2/year, -25.50 mL/year, -21.99 mL/year, and -0.24%/year, respectively. Persons with steeper BMI increases had faster declines in FEV1 (r = -0.16) and FVC (r = -0.26) and slower declines in FEV1:FVC ratio (r = 0.11) (all P values < 0.0001). Results were similar in subgroup analyses. Residual correlations were negative (P < 0.0001), suggesting additional interdependence between BMI and lung function. Results show that greater rates of weight gain are associated with greater rates of lung function loss.

Association of Nonobstructive Chronic Bronchitis With Respiratory Health Outcomes in Adults

IMPORTANCE

Chronic bronchitis has been associated with cigarette smoking as well as with e-cigarette use among young adults, but the association of chronic bronchitis in persons without airflow obstruction or clinical asthma, described as nonobstructive chronic bronchitis, with respiratory health outcomes remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes in adult ever smokers and never smokers.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective cohort study included 22 325 adults without initial airflow obstruction (defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] of <0.70) or clinical asthma at baseline. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts. Thus present study is based on data from 5 of these cohorts. Participants were enrolled from August 1971 through May 2007 and were followed up through December 2018.

EXPOSURES

Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was defined by questionnaire at baseline as both cough and phlegm for at least 3 months for at least 2 consecutive years.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Lung function was measured by prebronchodilator spirometry. Hospitalizations and deaths due to chronic lower respiratory disease and respiratory disease-related mortality were defined by events adjudication and administrative criteria. Models were stratified by smoking status and adjusted for anthropometric, sociodemographic, and smoking-related factors. The comparison group was participants without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis.

RESULTS

Among 22 325 adults included in the analysis, mean (SD) age was 53.0 (16.3) years (range, 18.0-95.0 years), 58.2% were female, 65.9% were non-Hispanic white, and 49.6% were ever smokers. Among 11 082 ever smokers with 99 869 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (300 [2.7%]) had accelerated decreases in FEV1 (4.1 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.1-6.1 mL/y) and FVC (4.7 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.2-7.2 mL/y), increased risks of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.7), and greater respiratory disease-related (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) compared with ever smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Among 11 243 never smokers with 120 004 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (151 [1.3%]) had greater rates of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.1-4.5) compared with never smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was not associated with FEV1:FVC decline or incident airflow obstruction. The presence of at least 1 of the component symptoms of nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (ie, chronic cough or phlegm), which was common in both ever smokers (11.0%) and never smokers (6.7%), was associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings suggest that nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes, particularly in ever smokers, and may be a high-risk phenotype suitable for risk stratification and targeted therapies.

[Lung function in the German National Cohort: methods and initial results]

BACKGROUND

A nationwide assessment of the respiratory status on the basis of standardized lung function measurements has so far not been available in Germany. The present work describes the lung function tests in the German National Cohort (GNC) and presents initial results based on the GNC Midterm Baseline Dataset.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The assessment of lung function in the GNC comprised spirometry (level 1) and the determination of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO, level 2). Our quality assurance concept included regular training of lung function test procedures at various GNC sites, interim evaluations of test quality, as well as regular calibration/measurement checks of test equipment. For spirometry, we established a stepwise procedure for offline quality control based on raw flow volume curves.

RESULTS

In the present dataset (n = 101,734), spirometry was available for 86,893 study participants and FeNO was available for 15,228 participants. The average (±SD) FEV₁ Z score (according to GLI 2012) was -0.321 ± 1.047, the FVC Z score was -0.153 ± 0.941, and the FEV₁/FVC Z score was -0.337 ± 0.901. The difference in FEV₁/FVC between current smokers and never-smokers increased with age. The average FeNO was 14.2 ÷ 2.0 ppb. Current smoking reduced FeNO levels by 43%, whereas respiratory allergy increased FeNO levels by 16% in nonsmokers.

DISCUSSION

The results of spirometry and the FeNO measurements are in the expected range with regard to their distributions and correlates. The GNC provides a valuable basis for future investigations of respiratory health and its determinants as well as research into the prevention of respiratory diseases in Germany.

Lung function decline in former smokers and low-intensity current smokers: a secondary data analysis of the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study

BACKGROUND

Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease.

METHODS

We used data on six US population-based cohorts included in the NHLBI Pooled Cohort Study. We restricted the sample to participants with valid spirometry at two or more exams. Two cohorts recruited younger adults (≥17 years), two recruited middle-aged and older adults (≥45 years), and two recruited only elderly adults (≥65 years) with examinations done between 1983 and 2014. FEV1 decline in sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers by use of mixed models adjusted for sociodemographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV1 decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (number of pack-years) and current (number of cigarettes per day) cigarette consumption.

FINDINGS

25 352 participants (ages 17-93 years) completed 70 228 valid spirometry exams. Over a median follow-up of 7 years (IQR 3-20), FEV1 decline at the median age (57 years) was 31·01 mL per year (95% CI 30·66-31·37) in sustained never-smokers, 34·97 mL per year (34·36-35·57) in former smokers, and 39·92 mL per year (38·92-40·92) in current smokers. With adjustment, former smokers showed an accelerated FEV1 decline of 1·82 mL per year (95% CI 1·24-2·40) compared to never-smokers, which was approximately 20% of the effect estimate for current smokers (9·21 mL per year; 95% CI 8·35-10·08). Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV1 decline was observed in former smokers for decades after smoking cessation and in current smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (<10 pack-years). With respect to current cigarette consumption, the effect estimate for FEV1 decline in current smokers consuming less than five cigarettes per day (7·65 mL per year; 95% CI 6·21-9·09) was 68% of that in current smokers consuming 30 or more cigarettes per day (11·24 mL per year; 9·86-12·62), and around five times greater than in former smokers (1·57 mL per year; 1·00-2·14). Among participants without prevalent lung disease, associations were attenuated but were consistent with the main results.

INTERPRETATION

Former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers. These results suggest that all levels of smoking exposure are likely to be associated with lasting and progressive lung damage.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, and US Environmental Protection Agency.

Fifty Years of Progress in the Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Review of National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-Sponsored Studies

Our understanding of the epidemiology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including such metrics as incidence, prevalence, risk factors, outcome, and comorbidities has increased greatly over the past 50 years. Much of this increase is attributable to National Heart Blood and Lung Institute (NHLBI)-sponsored studies. This paper will review 13 of these key studies and their contribution to our understanding of COPD in the last half century.

Cost-effectiveness of Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Level-Guided Statin Treatment in Patients With Borderline Cardiovascular Risk

Importance

American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines prioritize primary prevention statin therapy based on 10-year absolute risk (AR10) of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, given the same AR10, patients with higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) experience greater absolute risk reduction from statin therapy.

Objectives

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of expanding preventive statin treatment eligibility from standard care to patients at borderline risk (AR10, 5.0%-7.4%) for ASCVD and with high levels of LDL-C and to estimate cost-effectiveness of statin treatment across ranges of age, sex, AR10, and LDL-C levels.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study evaluated 100 simulated cohorts, each including 1 million ASCVD-free survey respondents (50% men and 50% women) aged 40 years at baseline. Cohorts were created by probabilistic sampling of the 1999-2014 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from the perspective of the US health care sector. The CVD Policy Model microsimulation version projected lifetime health and cost outcomes. Probability of first-ever coronary heart disease or stroke event was estimated by analysis of 6 pooled US cohort studies and recalibrated to match contemporary event rates. Other model variables were derived from national surveys, meta-analyses, and published literature. Data were analyzed from May 15, 2018, through June 10, 2019.

Exposures

Four statin treatment strategies were compared: (1) treat all patients with AR10 of at least 7.5%, diabetes, or LDL-C of at least 190 mg/dL (standard care); (2) add treatment for borderline risk and LDL-C levels of 160 to 189 mg/dL; (3) add treatment for borderline risk and LDL-C levels of 130 to 159 mg/dL; and (4) add treatment for remainder of patients with AR10 of at least 5.0%. Statin treatment was also compared with no statin treatment in age, sex, AR10, and LDL-C strata.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs (2019 US dollars) were projected and discounted 3.0% annually. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Results

In these 100 simulated cohorts, each with 1 million patients aged 40 years at baseline (50% women and 50% men), adding preventive statins to individuals with borderline AR10 and LDL-C levels of 160 to 189 mg/dL would be cost-saving; further treating borderline AR10 and LDL-C levels of 130 to 159 mg/dL would also be cost-saving; and treating all individuals with AR10 of at least 5.0% would be highly cost-effective ($33 558/QALY) and would prevent the most ASCVD events. Within age, AR10, and sex categories, individuals with higher baseline LDL-C levels gained more QALYs from statin therapy. Cost-effectiveness increased with LDL-C level and AR10.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, lifetime statin treatment of patients in a hypothetical cohort with borderline ASCVD risk and LDL-C levels of 160 to 189 mg/dL was found to be cost-saving. Results suggest that treating all patients at borderline risk regardless of LDL-C level would likely be highly cost-effective.

Associations of Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Levels During Young Adulthood With Later Cardiovascular Events

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol are major modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but effects of exposures during young adulthood on later life CVD risk have not been well quantified.

OBJECTIVE

The authors sought to evaluate the independent associations between young adult exposures to risk factors and later life CVD risk, accounting for later life exposures.

METHODS

The authors pooled data from 6 U.S. cohorts with observations spanning the life course from young adulthood to later life, and imputed risk factor trajectories for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterols, systolic and diastolic BP starting from age 18 years for every participant. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during young (age 18 to 39 years) and later adulthood (age ≥40 years) were calculated and linked to subsequent risks of coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), or stroke.

RESULTS

A total of 36,030 participants were included. During a median follow-up of 17 years, there were 4,570 CHD, 5,119 HF, and 2,862 stroke events. When young and later adult risk factors were considered jointly in the model, young adult LDL ≥100 mg/dl (compared with <100 mg/dl) was associated with a 64% increased risk for CHD, independent of later adult exposures. Similarly, young adult SBP ≥130 mm Hg (compared with <120 mm Hg) was associated with a 37% increased risk for HF, and young adult DBP ≥80 mm Hg (compared with <80 mm Hg) was associated with a 21% increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative young adult exposures to elevated systolic BP, diastolic BP and LDL were associated with increased CVD risks in later life, independent of later adult exposures.

Discriminative Accuracy of FEV1:FVC Thresholds for COPD-Related Hospitalization and Mortality

Importance

According to numerous current guidelines, the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a ratio of the forced expiratory volume in the first second to the forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) of less than 0.70, yet this fixed threshold is based on expert opinion and remains controversial.

Objective

To determine the discriminative accuracy of various FEV1:FVC fixed thresholds for predicting COPD-related hospitalization and mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 4 US general population-based cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study; Cardiovascular Health Study; Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study; and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Participants aged 45 to 102 years were enrolled from 1987 to 2000 and received follow-up longitudinally through 2016.

Exposures

Presence of airflow obstruction, which was defined by a baseline FEV1:FVC less than a range of fixed thresholds (0.75 to 0.65) or less than the lower limit of normal as defined by Global Lung Initiative reference equations (LLN).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of COPD hospitalization and COPD-related mortality, defined by adjudication or administrative criteria. The optimal fixed FEV1:FVC threshold was defined by the best discrimination for these COPD-related events as indexed using the Harrell C statistic from unadjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Differences in C statistics were compared with respect to less than 0.70 and less than LLN thresholds using a nonparametric approach.

Results

Among 24 207 adults in the pooled cohort (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 63 [10.5] years; 12 990 [54%] women; 16 794 [69%] non-Hispanic white; 15 181 [63%] ever smokers), complete follow-up was available for 11 077 (77%) at 15 years. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 3925 participants experienced COPD-related events over 340 757 person-years of follow-up (incidence density rate, 11.5 per 1000 person-years), including 3563 COPD-related hospitalizations and 447 COPD-related deaths. With respect to discrimination of COPD-related events, the optimal fixed threshold (0.71; C statistic for optimal fixed threshold, 0.696) was not significantly different from the 0.70 threshold (difference, 0.001 [95% CI, -0.002 to 0.004]) but was more accurate than the LLN threshold (difference, 0.034 [95% CI, 0.028 to 0.041]). The 0.70 threshold provided optimal discrimination in the subgroup analysis of ever smokers and in adjusted models.

Conclusions and Relevance

Defining airflow obstruction as FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 provided discrimination of COPD-related hospitalization and mortality that was not significantly different or was more accurate than other fixed thresholds and the LLN. These results support the use of FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 to identify individuals at risk of clinically significant COPD.

Albuminuria, Lung Function Decline, and Risk of Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study

RATIONALE

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs), including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, are the fourth leading cause of death. Prior studies suggest that albuminuria, a biomarker of endothelial injury, is increased in patients with COPD.

OBJECTIVES

To test whether albuminuria was associated with lung function decline and incident CLRDs.

METHODS

Six U.S. population-based cohorts were harmonized and pooled. Participants with prevalent clinical lung disease were excluded. Albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) was measured in spot samples. Lung function was assessed by spirometry. Incident CLRD-related hospitalizations and deaths were classified via adjudication and/or administrative criteria. Mixed and proportional hazards models were used to test individual-level associations adjusted for age, height, weight, sex, race/ethnicity, education, birth year, cohort, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, renal function, hypertension, diabetes, and medications.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among 10,961 participants with preserved lung function, mean age at albuminuria measurement was 60 years, 51% were never-smokers, median albuminuria was 5.6 mg/g, and mean FEV1 decline was 31.5 ml/yr. For each SD increase in log-transformed albuminuria, there was 2.81% greater FEV1 decline (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-4.76%; P = 0.0047), 11.02% greater FEV1/FVC decline (95% CI, 4.43-17.62%; P = 0.0011), and 15% increased hazard of incident spirometry-defined moderate-to-severe COPD (95% CI, 2-31%, P = 0.0021). Each SD log-transformed albuminuria increased hazards of incident COPD-related hospitalization/mortality by 26% (95% CI, 18-34%, P < 0.0001) among 14,213 participants followed for events. Asthma events were not significantly associated. Associations persisted in participants without current smoking, diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Albuminuria was associated with greater lung function decline, incident spirometry-defined COPD, and incident COPD-related events in a U.S. population-based sample.

Integrating Clinical and Epidemiologic Data on Allergic Diseases Across Birth Cohorts: A Harmonization Study in the Mechanisms of the Development of Allergy Project

The numbers of international collaborations among birth cohort studies designed to better understand asthma and allergies have increased in the last several years. However, differences in definitions and methods preclude direct pooling of original data on individual participants. As part of the Mechanisms of the Development of Allergy (MeDALL) Project, we harmonized data from 14 birth cohort studies (each with 3-20 follow-up periods) carried out in 9 European countries during 1990-1998 or 2003-2009. The harmonization process followed 6 steps: 1) organization of the harmonization panel; 2) identification of variables relevant to MeDALL objectives (candidate variables); 3) proposal of a definition for each candidate variable (reference definition); 4) assessment of the compatibility of each cohort variable with its reference definition (inferential equivalence) and classification of this inferential equivalence as complete, partial, or impossible; 5) convocation of a workshop to agree on the reference definitions and classifications of inferential equivalence; and 6) preparation and delivery of data through a knowledge management portal. We agreed on 137 reference definitions. The inferential equivalence of 3,551 cohort variables to their corresponding reference definitions was classified as complete, partial, and impossible for 70%, 15%, and 15% of the variables, respectively. A harmonized database was delivered to MeDALL investigators. In asthma and allergy birth cohorts, the harmonization of data for pooled analyses is feasible, and high inferential comparability may be achieved. The MeDALL harmonization approach can be used in other collaborative projects.