Improving Bayesian population dynamics inference: a coalescent-based model for multiple loci

Spatio-temporal spread of Lassa virus and a new rodent host in the Mano River Union area, West Africa

The spread of Lassa virus (LASV) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, which together are named the Mano River Union (MRU) area, was examined phylogeographically. To provide a reliable evolutionary scenario, new rodent-derived, whole LASV sequences were included. These were generated by metatranscriptomic next-generation sequencing from rodents sampled between 2003 and 2020 in 21 localities of Guinea and Sierra Leone. An analysis was performed using BEAST to perform continuous phylogeographic inference and EvoLaps v36 to visualize spatio-temporal spread. LASV was identified as expected in its primary host reservoir, the Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis), and also in two Guinean multimammate mice (Mastomys erythroleucus) in northern Sierra Leone and two rusty-bellied brush-furred mice (Lophuromys sikapusi) in southern Sierra Leone. This finding is consistent with the latter two species being secondary host reservoirs. The strains in these three species were very closely related in LASV lineage IV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the most recent common ancestor of lineage IV existed 316-374 years ago and revealed distinct, well-supported clades from Sierra Leone (Bo, Kabala and Kenema), Guinea (Faranah, Kissidougou-Guekedou and Macenta) and Liberia (Phebe-Ganta). The phylogeographic scenario suggests southern Guinea as the point of origin of LASV in the MRU area, with subsequent spread to towards Mali, Liberia and Sierra Leone at a mean speed of 1.6 to 1.1 km/year.

Dispersal history of SARS-CoV-2 in Galicia, Spain

The dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission are influenced by a variety of factors, including social restrictions and the emergence of distinct variants. In this study, we delve into the origins and dissemination of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron-BA.1 variants of concern in Galicia, northwest Spain. For this, we leveraged genomic data collected by the EPICOVIGAL Consortium and from the GISAID database, along with mobility information from other Spanish regions and foreign countries. Our analysis indicates that initial introductions during the Alpha phase were predominantly from other Spanish regions and France. However, as the pandemic progressed, introductions from Portugal and the United States became increasingly significant. The number of detected introductions varied from 96 and 101 for Alpha and Delta to 39 for Omicron-BA.1. Most of these introductions left a low number of descendants (<10), suggesting a limited impact on the evolution of the pandemic in Galicia. Notably, Galicia's major coastal cities emerged as critical hubs for viral transmission, highlighting their role in sustaining and spreading the virus. This research emphasizes the critical role of regional connectivity in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and offers essential insights for enhancing public health strategies and surveillance measures.

Genomic epidemiology uncovers the timing and origin of the emergence of mpox in humans

Five years before the 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak Nigeria reported its first cases in nearly 40 years, with the ongoing epidemic since driven by sustained human-to-human transmission. However, limited genomic data has left questions about the timing and origin of the mpox virus' (MPXV) emergence. Here we generated 112 MPXV genomes from Nigeria from 2021-2023. We identify the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic in southern Nigeria, and estimate that the lineage transmitting from human-to-human emerged around July 2014, circulating cryptically until detected in September 2017. The epidemic originated in Southern Nigeria, particularly Rivers State, which also acted as a persistent and dominant source of viral dissemination to other states. We show that APOBEC3 activity increased MPXV's evolutionary rate twenty-fold during human-to-human transmission. We also show how Delphy, a tool for near-real-time Bayesian phylogenetics, can aid rapid outbreak analytics. Our study sheds light on MPXV's establishment in West Africa before the 2022-2023 global outbreak and highlights the need for improved pathogen surveillance and response.

Comparison of Bayesian Coalescent Skyline Plot Models for Inferring Demographic Histories

Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models are widely used to infer demographic histories. The first (non-Bayesian) coalescent skyline plot model assumed a known genealogy as data, while subsequent models and implementations jointly inferred the genealogy and demographic history from sequence data, including heterochronous samples. Overall, there exist multiple different Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models which mainly differ in two key aspects: (i) how changes in population size are modeled through independent or autocorrelated prior distributions, and (ii) how many change-points in the demographic history are used, where they occur and if the number is pre-specified or inferred. The specific impact of each of these choices on the inferred demographic history is not known because of two reasons: first, not all models are implemented in the same software, and second, each model implementation makes specific choices that the biologist cannot influence. To facilitate a detailed evaluation of Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models, we implemented all currently described models in a flexible design into the software RevBayes. Furthermore, we evaluated models and choices on an empirical dataset of horses supplemented by a small simulation study. We find that estimated demographic histories can be grouped broadly into two groups depending on how change-points in the demographic history are specified (either independent of or at coalescent events). Our simulations suggest that models using change-points at coalescent events produce spurious variation near the present, while most models using independent change-points tend to over-smooth the inferred demographic history.

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

Pathophysiology of chikungunya virus infection associated with fatal outcomes

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes acute, subacute, and chronic human arthritogenic diseases and, in rare instances, can lead to neurological complications and death. Here, we combined epidemiological, virological, histopathological, cytokine, molecular dynamics, metabolomic, proteomic, and genomic analyses to investigate viral and host factors that contribute to chikungunya-associated (CHIK) death. Our results indicate that CHIK deaths are associated with multi-organ infection, central nervous system damage, and elevated serum levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines compared with survivors. The histopathologic, metabolite, and proteomic signatures of CHIK deaths reveal hemodynamic disorders and dysregulated immune responses. The CHIKV East-Central-South-African lineage infecting our study population causes both fatal and survival cases. Additionally, CHIKV infection impairs the integrity of the blood-brain barrier, as evidenced by an increase in permeability and altered tight junction protein expression. Overall, our findings improve the understanding of CHIK pathophysiology and the causes of fatal infections.

The genomic evolutionary dynamics and global circulation patterns of respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children and the second leading cause of infant death worldwide. While global circulation has been extensively studied for respiratory viruses such as seasonal influenza, and more recently also in great detail for SARS-CoV-2, a lack of global multi-annual sampling of complete RSV genomes limits our understanding of RSV molecular epidemiology. Here, we capitalise on the genomic surveillance by the INFORM-RSV study and apply phylodynamic approaches to uncover how selection and neutral epidemiological processes shape RSV diversity. Using complete viral genome sequences, we show similar patterns of site-specific diversifying selection among RSVA and RSVB and recover the imprint of non-neutral epidemic processes on their genealogies. Using a phylogeographic approach, we provide evidence for air travel governing the global patterns of RSVA and RSVB spread, which results in a considerable degree of phylogenetic mixing across countries. Our findings highlight the potential of systematic global RSV genomic surveillance for transforming our understanding of global RSV spread.

Emergence and dissemination of equine-like G3P[8] rotavirus A in Brazil between 2015 and 2021

Rotavirus A (RVA) is a major cause of acute gastroenteritis globally that is classically genotyped by its two immunodominant outer capsid proteins, VP7 (G-) and VP4 (P-). Recent evidence suggests that the reassortant equine-like G3P[8] strain played a substantial role in RVA transmission in Brazil since 2015. To understand its global emergence and dissemination in Brazilian territory, stool samples collected from 11 Brazilian states (n = 919) were genotyped by RT-qPCR and proceeded to sequence the VP7 gene (n = 102, 79 being newly generated) of the G3P[8] samples with pronounced viral loads. Our phylogenetic genotyping showed that G3P[8] became the dominant strain in Brazil between 2017 and 2020, with equine-like variants representing 75%-100% of VP7 samples in this period. A Bayesian discrete phylogeographic analysis strongly suggests that the equine-like G3P[8] strain originated in Asia during the early 2010s and subsequently spread to Europe, the Caribbean, and South America. Multiple introductions were detected in Brazil between 2014 and 2017, resulting in five national clusters. The reconstruction of the effective population size of the largest Brazilian cluster showed an expansion until 2017, followed by a plateau phase until 2019 and subsequent contraction. Our study also supports that most mutations fixed during equine-like G3P[8] evolution were synonymous, suggesting that adaptive evolution was not an important driving force during viral dissemination in humans, potentially increasing its susceptibility to acquired immunity. This research emphasizes the need for comprehensive rotavirus genomic surveillance that allows close monitoring of its ever-shifting composition and informs more effective public health policies.IMPORTANCEOur original article demonstrated the origin and spread in a short time of equine-like G3P[8] in Brazil and the world. Due to its segmented genome, it allows numerous mechanisms including genetic drift and reassortment contribute substantially to the genetic diversity of rotavirus. Although the effectiveness and increasing implementation of vaccination have not been questioned, a matter of concern is its impact on the emergence of escape mutants or even the spread of unusual strains of zoonotic transmission that could drive epidemic patterns worldwide. This research emphasizes the need for comprehensive rotavirus genomic surveillance, which could facilitate the formulation of public policies aimed at preventing and mitigating its transmission.

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

MASCOT-Skyline integrates population and migration dynamics to enhance phylogeographic reconstructions

The spread of infectious diseases is shaped by spatial and temporal aspects, such as host population structure or changes in the transmission rate or number of infected individuals over time. These spatiotemporal dynamics are imprinted in the genome of pathogens and can be recovered from those genomes using phylodynamics methods. However, phylodynamic methods typically quantify either the temporal or spatial transmission dynamics, which leads to unclear biases, as one can potentially not be inferred without the other. Here, we address this challenge by introducing a structured coalescent skyline approach, MASCOT-Skyline that allows us to jointly infer spatial and temporal transmission dynamics of infectious diseases using Markov chain Monte Carlo inference. To do so, we model the effective population size dynamics in different locations using a non-parametric function, allowing us to approximate a range of population size dynamics. We show, using a range of different viral outbreak datasets, potential issues with phylogeographic methods. We then use these viral datasets to motivate simulations of outbreaks that illuminate the nature of biases present in the different phylogeographic methods. We show that spatial and temporal dynamics should be modeled jointly even if one seeks to recover just one of the two. Further, we showcase conditions under which we can expect phylogeographic analyses to be biased, particularly different subsampling approaches, as well as provide recommendations of when we can expect them to perform well. We implemented MASCOT-Skyline as part of the open-source software package MASCOT for the Bayesian phylodynamics platform BEAST2.

Dispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions were an important epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Through the COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance Regional Network (COVIGEN), LAC countries produced an important number of genomic sequencing data that made possible an enhanced SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance capacity in the Americas, paving the way for characterization of emerging variants and helping to guide the public health response. In this study we analyzed approximately 300,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences generated between February 2020 and March 2022 by multiple genomic surveillance efforts in LAC and reconstructed the diffusion patterns of the main variants of concern (VOCs) and of interest (VOIs) possibly originated in the Region. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that the spread of variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu reflects human mobility patterns due to variations of international air passenger transportation and gradual lifting of social distance measures previously implemented in countries. Our results highlight the potential of genetic data to reconstruct viral spread and unveil preferential routes of viral migrations that are shaped by human mobility patterns.

Dispersal history of SARS-CoV-2 in Galicia, Spain

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission are influenced by a variety of factors, including social restrictions and the emergence of distinct variants. In this study, we delve into the origins and dissemination of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants of concern in Galicia, northwest Spain. For this, we leveraged genomic data collected by the EPICOVIGAL Consortium and from the GISAID database, along with mobility information from other Spanish regions and foreign countries. Our analysis indicates that initial introductions during the Alpha phase were predominantly from other Spanish regions and France. However, as the pandemic progressed, introductions from Portugal and the USA became increasingly significant. Notably, Galicia's major coastal cities emerged as critical hubs for viral transmission, highlighting their role in sustaining and spreading the virus. This research emphasizes the critical role of regional connectivity in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and offers essential insights for enhancing public health strategies and surveillance measures.

Comparative evolution of influenza A virus H1 and H3 head and stalk domains across host species

IMPORTANCE

For decades, researchers have studied the rapid evolution of influenza A viruses for vaccine design and as a useful model system for the study of host/parasite evolution. By performing an exhaustive analysis of hemagglutinin protein (HA) sequences from 49 lineages independently evolving in birds, swine, canines, equines, and humans over the last century, our work uncovers surprising features of HA evolution. In particular, the canine H3 stalk, unlike human H3 and H1 stalk domains, is not evolving slowly, suggesting that evolution in the stalk domain is not universally constrained across all host species. Therefore, a broader multi-host perspective on HA evolution may be useful during the evaluation and design of stalk-targeted vaccine candidates.

Distribution pattern, molecular transmission networks, and phylodynamic of hepatitis C virus in China

In China, few molecular epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available and all previous studies were limited by small sample sizes or specific population characteristics. Here, we report characterization of the epidemic history and transmission dynamics of HCV strains in China. We included HCV sequences of individuals belonging to three HCV surveillance programs: 1) patients diagnosed with HIV infection at the Beijing HIV laboratory network, most of whom were people who inject drugs and former paid blood donors, 2) men who have sex with men, and 3) the general population. We also used publicly available HCV sequences sampled in China in our study. In total, we obtained 1,603 Ns5b and 865 C/E2 sequences from 1,811 individuals. The most common HCV strains were subtypes 1b (29.1%), 3b (25.5%) and 3a (15.1%). In transmission network analysis, factors independently associated with clustering included the region (OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.19-0.71), infection subtype (OR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.1-0.52), and sampling period (OR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.27-0.68). The history of the major HCV subtypes was complex, which coincided with some important sociomedical events in China. Of note, five of eight HCV subtype (1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, and 3b), which constituted 81.8% HCV strains genotyped in our study, showed a tendency towards decline in the effective population size during the past decade until present, which is a good omen for the goal of eliminating HCV by 2030 in China.

Early underdetected dissemination across countries followed by extensive local transmission propelled the 2022 mpox epidemic

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case-reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

Complete genome reconstruction of the global and European regional dispersal history of the lumpy skin disease virus

IMPORTANCE

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) has a complex epidemiology involving multiple strains, recombination, and vaccination. Its DNA genome provides limited genetic variation to trace outbreaks in space and time. Sequencing of LSDV whole genomes has also been patchy at global and regional scales. Here, we provide the first fine-grained whole genome sequence sampling of a constrained LSDV outbreak (southeastern Europe, 2015-2017), which we analyze along with global publicly available genomes. We formally evaluate the past occurrence of recombination events as well as the temporal signal that is required for calibrating molecular clock models and subsequently conduct a time-calibrated spatially explicit phylogeographic reconstruction. Our study further illustrates the importance of accounting for recombination events before reconstructing global and regional dynamics of DNA viruses. More LSDV whole genomes from endemic areas are needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding of global LSDV dispersal dynamics.

Identification of a HIV-1 circulating BF1 recombinant form (CRF75_BF1) of Brazilian origin that also circulates in Southwestern Europe

Introduction

The high recombinogenic potential of HIV-1 has resulted in the generation of countless unique recombinant forms (URFs) and around 120 reported circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Here we identify through analyses of near full-length genomes (NFLG) a new HIV-1 CRF derived from subtypes B and F1.

Methods

HIV-1 protease-reverse transcriptase (Pr-RT) sequences were obtained by RT-PCR amplification from plasma RNA. Near full-length genome sequences were obtained after amplification by RT-PCR in 5 overlapping fragments. Phylogenetic sequence analyses were performed via maximum likelihood. Mosaic structures were analyzed by bootscanning and phylogenetic analyses of genome segments. Temporal and geographical estimations of clade emergence were performed with a Bayesian coalescent method.

Results

Through phylogenetic analyses of HIV-1 Pr-RT sequences obtained by us from samples collected in Spain and downloaded from databases, we identified a BF1 recombinant cluster segregating from previously reported CRFs comprising 52 viruses, most from Brazil (n = 26), Spain (n = 11), and Italy (n = 9). The analyses of NFLG genomes of 4 viruses of the cluster, 2 from Spain and 2 from Italy, allowed to identify a new CRF, designated CRF75_BF1, which exhibits a complex mosaic structure with 20 breakpoints. All 4 patients harboring CRF75_BF1 viruses studied by us had CD4+ T-cell lymphocyte counts below 220/mm3 less than one year after diagnosis, a proportion significantly higher (p = 0.0074) than the 29% found in other patients studied in Spain by us during the same period. The origin of the clade comprising CRF75_BF1 and related viruses was estimated around 1984 in Brazil, with subsequent introduction of CRF75_BF1 in Italy around 1992, and migration from Italy to Spain around 1999.

Conclusion

A new HIV-1 CRF, designated CRF75_BF1, has been identified. CRF75_BF1 is the 6th CRF of South American origin initially identified in Western Europe, reflecting the increasing relationship of South American and European HIV-1 epidemics. The finding of low CD4+ T-cell lymphocyte counts early after diagnosis in patients harboring CRF75_BF1 viruses warrants further investigation on the virulence of this variant.

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

APOBEC3 deaminase editing in mpox virus as evidence for sustained human transmission since at least 2016

Historically, mpox has been characterized as an endemic zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host in West and Central Africa. However, in May 2022, human cases of mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, they shared 42 nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) previously sampled. Nearly all these mutations are characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases, host enzymes with antiviral function. Assuming APOBEC3 editing is characteristic of human MPXV infection, we developed a dual-process phylogenetic molecular clock that-inferring a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year-estimates that MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. These observations of sustained MPXV transmission present a fundamental shift to the perceived paradigm of MPXV epidemiology as a zoonosis and highlight the need for revising public health messaging around MPXV as well as outbreak management and control.

Molecular epidemiology and phylodynamic analysis of enterovirus 71 in Beijing, China, 2009-2019

BACKGROUND

Enterovirus 71(EV71)-associated hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) decreased dramatically in Beijing from 2009 to 2019. This study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, evolutionary dynamics, geographic diffusion pathway, and other features of EV71 in Beijing, China.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of EV71-associated HFMD and its causative agent in Beijing, China, from 2009 to 2019. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods based on the EV71 genome were used to determine the evolution features, origin, and spatiotemporal dynamics. Positive selection sites in the VP1 gene were identified and exhibited in the tertiary structure. Bayesian birth-death skyline model was used to estimate the effective reproductive number (Re).

RESULTS

EV71-associated HFMD decreased greatly in Beijing. From 2009 to 2019, EV71 strains prevalent in Beijing shared high homology in each gene segment and evolved with a rate of 4.99*10- 3 substitutions per site per year. The genetic diversity of EV71 first increased and peaked in 2012 and then decreased with fluctuations. The time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of EV71 in Beijing was estimated around 2003 when the EV71 strains were transmitted to Beijing from east China. Beijing played a crucial role in seeding EV71 to central China as well. Two residues (E145Q/G, A293S) under positive selection were detected from both the VP1 dataset and the P1 dataset. They were embedded within the loop of the VP1 capsid and were exposed externally. Mean Re estimate of EV71 in Beijing was about 1.007.

CONCLUSION

In recent years, EV71 was not the primary causative agent of HFMD in Beijing. The low Re estimate of EV71 in Beijing implied that strategies for preventing and controlling HFMD were performed effectively. Beijing and east China played a crucial role in disseminating EV71 to other regions in China.

Shrinkage-based Random Local Clocks with Scalable Inference

Molecular clock models undergird modern methods of divergence-time estimation. Local clock models propose that the rate of molecular evolution is constant within phylogenetic subtrees. Current local clock inference procedures exhibit one or more weaknesses, namely they achieve limited scalability to trees with large numbers of taxa, impose model misspecification, or require a priori knowledge of the existence and location of clocks. To overcome these challenges, we present an autocorrelated, Bayesian model of heritable clock rate evolution that leverages heavy-tailed priors with mean zero to shrink increments of change between branch-specific clocks. We further develop an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler that exploits closed form gradient computations to scale our model to large trees. Inference under our shrinkage clock exhibits a speed-up compared to the popular random local clock when estimating branch-specific clock rates on a variety of simulated datasets. This speed-up increases with the size of the problem. We further show our shrinkage clock recovers known local clocks within a rodent and mammalian phylogeny. Finally, in a problem that once appeared computationally impractical, we investigate the heritable clock structure of various surface glycoproteins of influenza A virus in the absence of prior knowledge about clock placement. We implement our shrinkage clock and make it publicly available in the BEAST software package.

Circulation of Dengue Virus Serotype 1 Genotype V and Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Genotype III in Tocantins State, Northern Brazil, 2021-2022

In Brazil, the state of Tocantins, located in north-central Brazil, has experienced a significant number of cases of arboviral disease, particularly Dengue virus (DENV). This study aimed to deepen the knowledge on DENV circulation within that state by conducting full genome sequencing of viral genomes recovered from 61 patients between June 2021 and July 2022. There were a total of 8807 and 20,692 cases in 2021 and 2022, respectively, as reported by the state's Secretary of Health. Nucleotide sequencing confirmed the circulation of DENV serotype 1, genotype V and DENV serotype 2, genotype III in the State. Younger age groups (4 to 43 years old) were mostly affected; however, no significant differences were detected regarding the gender distribution of cases in humans. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the circulating viruses belong to DENV-1 genotype V American and DENV-2 genotype III Southeast Asian/American. The Bayesian analysis of DENV-1 genotype V genomes sequenced here are closely related to genomes previously sequenced in the state of São Paulo. Regarding the DENV-2 genotype III genomes, these clustered in a distinct, well-supported subclade, along with previously reported isolates from the states of Goiás and São Paulo. The findings reported here suggest that multiple introductions of these genotypes occurred in the Tocantins state. This observation highlights the importance of major population centers in Brazil on virus dispersion, such as those observed in other Latin American and North American countries. In the SNP analysis, DENV-1 displayed 122 distinct missense mutations, while DENV-2 had 44, with significant mutations predominantly occurring in the envelope and NS5 proteins. The analyses performed here highlight the concomitant circulation of distinct DENV-1 and -2 genotypes in some Brazilian states, underscoring the dynamic evolution of DENV and the relevance of surveillance efforts in supporting public health policies.

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) in marine mammals and seabirds in Peru

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A/H5N1 viruses (lineage 2.3.4.4b) are rapidly invading the Americas, threatening wildlife, poultry, and potentially evolving into the next global pandemic. In November 2022 HPAI arrived in Peru, triggering massive pelican and sea lion die-offs. We report genomic characterization of HPAI/H5N1 in five species of marine mammals and seabirds (dolphins, sea lions, sanderlings, pelicans and cormorants). Peruvian viruses belong to lineage 2.3.4.4b, but they are 4:4 reassortants where 4 genomic segments (PA, HA, NA and MP) position within the Eurasian lineage that initially entered North America from Eurasia, while the other 4 genomic segments (PB2, PB1, NP and NS) position within the American lineage (clade C) that circulated in North America. These viruses are rapidly accruing mutations, including mutations of concern, that warrant further examination and highlight an urgent need for active local surveillance to manage outbreaks and limit spillover into other species, including humans.

Uncovering the endemic circulation of rabies in Cambodia

In epidemiology, endemicity characterizes sustained pathogen circulation in a geographical area, which involves a circulation that is not being maintained by external introductions. Because it could potentially shape the design of public health interventions, there is an interest in fully uncovering the endemic pattern of a disease. Here, we use a phylogeographic approach to investigate the endemic signature of rabies virus (RABV) circulation in Cambodia. Cambodia is located in one of the most affected regions by rabies in the world, but RABV circulation between and within Southeast Asian countries remains understudied. Our analyses are based on a new comprehensive data set of 199 RABV genomes collected between 2014 and 2017 as well as previously published Southeast Asian RABV sequences. We show that most Cambodian sequences belong to a distinct clade that has been circulating almost exclusively in Cambodia. Our results thus point towards rabies circulation in Cambodia that does not rely on external introductions. We further characterize within-Cambodia RABV circulation by estimating lineage dispersal metrics that appear to be similar to other settings, and by performing landscape phylogeographic analyses to investigate environmental factors impacting the dispersal dynamic of viral lineages. The latter analyses do not lead to the identification of environmental variables that would be associated with the heterogeneity of viral lineage dispersal velocities, which calls for a better understanding of local dog ecology and further investigations of the potential drivers of RABV spread in the region. Overall, our study illustrates how phylogeographic investigations can be performed to assess and characterize viral endemicity in a context of relatively limited data.

Epidemiological and genomic investigation of chikungunya virus in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, between 2015 and 2018

Since 2014, Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with several waves of East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage transmission reported across the country. In 2018, Rio de Janeiro state, the third most populous state in Brazil, reported 41% of all chikungunya cases in the country. Here we use evolutionary and epidemiological analysis to estimate the timescale of CHIKV-ECSA-American lineage and its epidemiological patterns in Rio de Janeiro. We show that the CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro derived from two distinct clades introduced from the Northeast region in mid-2015 (clade RJ1, n = 63/67 genomes from Rio de Janeiro) and mid-2017 (clade RJ2, n = 4/67). We detected evidence for positive selection in non-structural proteins linked with viral replication in the RJ1 clade (clade-defining: nsP4-A481D) and the RJ2 clade (nsP1-D531G). Finally, we estimate the CHIKV-ECSA's basic reproduction number (R0) to be between 1.2 to 1.6 and show that its instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) displays a strong seasonal pattern with peaks in transmission coinciding with periods of high Aedes aegypti transmission potential. Our results highlight the need for continued genomic and epidemiological surveillance of CHIKV in Brazil, particularly during periods of high ecological suitability, and show that selective pressures underline the emergence and evolution of the large urban CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.

Evolutionary dynamics and adaptive analysis of Seneca Valley virus

Over the past 20 years, the Seneca Valley virus (SVV) has emerged in various countries and regions around the world. Infected pigs display symptoms similar to foot-and-mouth disease and other vesicular diseases, causing severe economic losses to affected countries. In recent years, the number of SVV infections has been increasing in Brazil, China, and the United States. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed SVV genomic sequence data from the perspectives of evolutionary dynamics, phylogeography, and codon usage bias. We aimed to gain further insights into SVV's genetic diversity, spatiotemporal distribution patterns, and evolutionary adaptations. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that SVV has evolved into eight distinct lineages. Based on the results of phylogeographic analysis, it is speculated that the United States might have been the source of SVV, from where it subsequently spread to different countries and regions. Moreover, our analysis of positive selection sites in SVV capsid proteins suggests their potential importance in the process of receptor recognition. Finally, codon preference analysis indicates that natural selection has been a primary evolutionary driver influencing SVV codon usage bias. In conclusion, our in-depth investigation into SVV's origin, dissemination, evolution, and adaptation emphasizes the significance of SVV surveillance and control measures.

Accelerated evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in free-ranging white-tailed deer

The zoonotic origin of the COVID-19 pandemic virus highlights the need to fill the vast gaps in our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 ecology and evolution in non-human hosts. Here, we detected that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced from humans into white-tailed deer more than 30 times in Ohio, USA during November 2021-March 2022. Subsequently, deer-to-deer transmission persisted for 2-8 months, disseminating across hundreds of kilometers. Newly developed Bayesian phylogenetic methods quantified how SARS-CoV-2 evolution is not only three-times faster in white-tailed deer compared to the rate observed in humans but also driven by different mutational biases and selection pressures. The long-term effect of this accelerated evolutionary rate remains to be seen as no critical phenotypic changes were observed in our animal models using white-tailed deer origin viruses. Still, SARS-CoV-2 has transmitted in white-tailed deer populations for a relatively short duration, and the risk of future changes may have serious consequences for humans and livestock.

Newly identified lineages of porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus exhibit respiratory phenotype

Swine pathogens have a long history of zoonotic transmission to humans, occasionally leading to sustained outbreaks or pandemics. Through a retrospective epidemiological study of swine populations in China, we describe novel lineages of porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (PHEV) complex coronaviruses (CoVs) that cause exclusively respiratory symptoms with no signs of the neurological symptoms typically associated with classical PHEV infection. Through large-scale epidemiological surveillance, we show that these novel lineages have circulated in at least eight provinces in southeastern China. Phylogenetic and recombination analyses of twenty-four genomes identified two major viral lineages causing respiratory symptoms with extensive recombination within them, between them, and between classical PHEV and the novel respiratory variant PHEV (rvPHEV) lineages. Divergence times among the sampled lineages in the PHEV virus complex date back to 1886-1958 (mean estimate 1928), with the two major rvPHEV lineages separating approximately 20 years later. Many rvPHEV viruses show amino acid substitutions at the carbohydrate-binding site of hemagglutinin esterase (HE) and/or have lost the cysteine required for HE dimerization. This resembles the early adaptation of human CoVs, where HE lost its hemagglutination ability to adapt to growth in the human respiratory tract. Our study represents the first report of the evolutionary history of rvPHEV circulating in swine and highlights the importance of characterizing CoV diversity and recombination in swine to identify pathogens with outbreak potential that could threaten swine farming.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history. We find that six of the eight largest English Omicron lineages were already transmitting when Omicron was first reported in southern Africa (22 November 2021). Multiple datasets show that importation of Omicron continued despite subsequent restrictions on travel from southern Africa as a result of export from well-connected secondary locations. Initiation and dispersal of Omicron transmission lineages in England was a two-stage process that can be explained by models of the country's human geography and hierarchical travel network. Our results enable a comparison of the processes that drive the invasion of Omicron and other VOCs across multiple spatial scales.

Mitogenomes revealed the history of bison colonization of Northern Plains after the Last Glacial Maximum

American bison demonstrated differential patterns of extinction, survival, and expansion since the terminal Pleistocene. We determined population dynamics of the Northern Great Plains bison using 40 mitochondrial genomes from radiocarbon dated remains with the age ranging from 12,226 to 167 calibrated years before present. Population dynamics correlated with environmental and anthropogenic factors and was characterized by three primary periods: terminal Pleistocene population growth starting 14,000 years ago, mid Holocene demographic stability between 6700 and 2700 years ago, and late Holocene population decline in the last 2700 years. Most diversification of mtDNA haplotypes occurred in the early Holocene when bison colonized new territories opened by retreating ice sheets. Holocene mtDNA lineages were not found in modern bison and lacked association with archaeological sites and morphological forms.

Recovery of complete genomes of canine parvovirus from clinical samples

Canine parvovirus (CPV) is a highly pathogenic virus that affects dogs, especially puppies. CPV is believed to have evolved from feline panleukopenia virus (FPV), eventually giving rise to three antigenic types, CPV-2a, 2b, and 2c. CPV-2 is recognized for its resilience in contaminated environments, ease of transmission among dogs, and pathogenicity for puppies. Despite the relevance of the virus, complete genome sequences of CPV available at GenBank, to date, are scarce. In the current study, we have developed a methodology to allow the recovery of complete CPV-2 genomes directly from clinical samples. For this, seven fecal samples from Gurupi, Tocantins, North Brazil, were collected from puppies with clinical signals of viral enteritis, and submitted to viral DNA isolation and amplification. Two multiplex PCR strategies were designed including primers targeting fragments of 400 base pairs (bp) and 1,000 bp along the complete genome. Sequencing was performed with the Nanopore® technology and results obtained with the two approaches were compared. Genome assembly revealed that the 400 bp amplicons generated larger numbers of reads, allowing a more reliable coverage of the whole genome than those attained with primers targeting the larger (1000 bp) amplicons. Nevertheless, both enrichment methodologies were efficient in amplification and sequencing. Viral genome sequences were of high quality and allowed more precise typing and subtyping of viral genomes compared to the commonly employed strategy relying solely on the analysis of the VP2 region, which is limited in scope. The CPV-2 genomes recovered in this study belong to the CPV2a and CPV-2c subtypes, closely related to isolates from the neighboring Amazonian region. In conclusion, the technique reported here may contribute to increase the number of full CPV genomes available, which is essential for understanding the genetic mechanisms underlying the evolution and spread of CPV-2.

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just ~1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

Genome-wide phylodynamic approach reveals the epidemic dynamics of the main Mycoplasma bovis subtype circulating in France

Mycoplasma bovis is a major aetiological agent of bovine respiratory disease worldwide. Genome-based analyses are increasingly being used to monitor the genetic diversity and global distribution of M. bovis, complementing existing subtyping schemes based on locus sequencing. However, these analyses have so far provided limited information on the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of circulating subtypes. Here we applied a genome-wide phylodynamic approach to explore the epidemic dynamics of 88 French M. bovis strains collected between 2000 and 2019 in France and belonging to the currently dominant polC subtype 2 (st2). A strong molecular clock signal detected in the genomic data enabled robust phylodynamic inferences, which estimated that the M. bovis st2 population in France is composed of two lineages that successively emerged from independent introductions of international strains. The first lineage appeared around 2000 and supplanted the previously established antimicrobial-susceptible polC subtype 1. The second lineage, which is likely more transmissible, progressively replaced the first M. bovis st2 lineage population from 2005 onward and became predominant after 2010. Analyses also showed a brief decline in this second M. bovis st2 lineage population in around 2011, possibly due to the challenge from the concurrent emergence of M. bovis polC subtype 3 in France. Finally, we identified non-synonymous mutations in genes associated with lineages, which raises prospects for identifying new surveillance molecular markers. A genome-wide phylodynamic approach provides valuable resources for monitoring the evolution and epidemic dynamics of circulating M. bovis subtypes, and may prove critical for developing more effective surveillance systems and disease control strategies.

Dynamics of eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, similar to previous years, cases were driven by multiple independent but short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019, although the ecology of EEEV is complex and further data is required to explore these in more detail. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

The Principles of SARS-CoV-2 Intervariant Competition Are Exemplified in the Pre-Omicron Era of the Colombian Epidemic

The first 18 months of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Colombia were characterized by three epidemic waves. During the third wave, from March through August 2021, intervariant competition resulted in Mu replacing Alpha and Gamma. We employed Bayesian phylodynamic inference and epidemiological modeling to characterize the variants in the country during this period of competition. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that Mu did not emerge in Colombia but acquired increased fitness there through local transmission and diversification, contributing to its export to North America and Europe. Despite not having the highest transmissibility, Mu's genetic composition and ability to evade preexisting immunity facilitated its domination of the Colombian epidemic landscape. Our results support previous modeling studies demonstrating that both intrinsic factors (transmissibility and genetic diversity) and extrinsic factors (time of introduction and acquired immunity) influence the outcome of intervariant competition. This analysis will help set practical expectations about the inevitable emergences of new variants and their trajectories. IMPORTANCE Before the appearance of the Omicron variant in late 2021, numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants emerged, were established, and declined, often with different outcomes in different geographic areas. In this study, we considered the trajectory of the Mu variant, which only successfully dominated the epidemic landscape of a single country: Colombia. We demonstrate that Mu competed successfully there due to its early and opportune introduction time in late 2020, combined with its ability to evade immunity granted by prior infection or the first generation of vaccines. Mu likely did not effectively spread outside of Colombia because other immune-evading variants, such as Delta, had arrived in those locales and established themselves first. On the other hand, Mu's early spread within Colombia may have prevented the successful establishment of Delta there. Our analysis highlights the geographic heterogeneity of early SARS-CoV-2 variant spread and helps to reframe the expectations for the competition behaviors of future variants.

Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of antimicrobial resistance from pathogen genomic data

Increasing levels of antibiotic resistance in many bacterial pathogen populations are a major threat to public health. Resistance to an antibiotic provides a fitness benefit when the bacteria are exposed to this antibiotic, but resistance also often comes at a cost to the resistant pathogen relative to susceptible counterparts. We lack a good understanding of these benefits and costs of resistance for many bacterial pathogens and antibiotics, but estimating them could lead to better use of antibiotics in a way that reduces or prevents the spread of resistance. Here, we propose a new model for the joint epidemiology of susceptible and resistant variants, which includes explicit parameters for the cost and benefit of resistance. We show how Bayesian inference can be performed under this model using phylogenetic data from susceptible and resistant lineages and that by combining data from both we are able to disentangle and estimate the resistance cost and benefit parameters separately. We applied our inferential methodology to several simulated datasets to demonstrate good scalability and accuracy. We analysed a dataset of Neisseria gonorrhoeae genomes collected between 2000 and 2013 in the USA. We found that two unrelated lineages resistant to fluoroquinolones shared similar epidemic dynamics and resistance parameters. Fluoroquinolones were abandoned for the treatment of gonorrhoea due to increasing levels of resistance, but our results suggest that they could be used to treat a minority of around 10% of cases without causing resistance to grow again.

Analyses of Early ZIKV Genomes Are Consistent with Viral Spread from Northeast Brazil to the Americas

The Americas, particularly Brazil, were greatly impacted by the widespread Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015 and 2016. Efforts were made to implement genomic surveillance of ZIKV as part of the public health responses. The accuracy of spatiotemporal reconstructions of the epidemic spread relies on the unbiased sampling of the transmission process. In the early stages of the outbreak, we recruited patients exhibiting clinical symptoms of arbovirus-like infection from Salvador and Campo Formoso, Bahia, in Northeast Brazil. Between May 2015 and June 2016, we identified 21 cases of acute ZIKV infection and subsequently recovered 14 near full-length sequences using the amplicon tiling multiplex approach with nanopore sequencing. We performed a time-calibrated discrete phylogeographic analysis to trace the spread and migration history of the ZIKV. Our phylogenetic analysis supports a consistent relationship between ZIKV migration from Northeast to Southeast Brazil and its subsequent dissemination beyond Brazil. Additionally, our analysis provides insights into the migration of ZIKV from Brazil to Haiti and the role Brazil played in the spread of ZIKV to other countries, such as Singapore, the USA, and the Dominican Republic. The data generated by this study enhances our understanding of ZIKV dynamics and supports the existing knowledge, which can aid in future surveillance efforts against the virus.

Mapping the Dynamics of Contemporary PRRSV-2 Evolution and Its Emergence and Spreading Hotspots in the U.S. Using Phylogeography

The repeated emergence of new genetic variants of PRRSV-2, the virus that causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), reflects its rapid evolution and the failure of previous control efforts. Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity in variant emergence and spread is critical for future outbreak prevention. Here, we investigate how the pace of evolution varies across time and space, identify the origins of sub-lineage emergence, and map the patterns of the inter-regional spread of PRRSV-2 Lineage 1 (L1)-the current dominant lineage in the U.S. We performed comparative phylogeographic analyses on subsets of 19,395 viral ORF5 sequences collected across the U.S. and Canada between 1991 and 2021. The discrete trait analysis of multiple spatiotemporally stratified sampled sets (n = 500 each) was used to infer the ancestral geographic region and dispersion of each sub-lineage. The robustness of the results was compared to that of other modeling methods and subsampling strategies. Generally, the spatial spread and population dynamics varied across sub-lineages, time, and space. The Upper Midwest was a main spreading hotspot for multiple sub-lineages, e.g., L1C and L1F, though one of the most recent emergence events (L1A(2)) spread outwards from the east. An understanding of historical patterns of emergence and spread can be used to strategize disease control and the containment of emerging variants.

Unraveling the epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis using whole-genome sequencing combined with environmental and demographic data

When studying the dynamics of a pathogen in a host population, one crucial question is whether it transitioned from an epidemic (i.e., the pathogen population and the number of infected hosts are increasing) to an endemic stable state (i.e., the pathogen population reached an equilibrium). For slow-growing and slow-evolving clonal pathogens such as Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine (or animal) and zoonotic tuberculosis, it can be challenging to discriminate between these two states. This is a result of the combination of suboptimal detection tests so that the actual extent of the pathogen prevalence is often unknown, as well as of the low genetic diversity, which can hide the temporal signal provided by the accumulation of mutations in the bacterial DNA. In recent years, the increased availability, efficiency, and reliability of genomic reading techniques, such as whole-genome sequencing (WGS), have significantly increased the amount of information we can use to study infectious diseases, and therefore, it has improved the precision of epidemiological inferences for pathogens such as M. bovis. In this study, we use WGS to gain insights into the epidemiology of M. bovis in Cameroon, a developing country where the pathogen has been reported for decades. A total of 91 high-quality sequences were obtained from tissue samples collected in four abattoirs, 64 of which were with complete metadata. We combined these with environmental, demographic, ecological, and cattle movement data to generate inferences using phylodynamic models. Our findings suggest M. bovis in Cameroon is slowly expanding its epidemiological range over time; therefore, endemic stability is unlikely. This suggests that animal movement plays an important role in transmission. The simultaneous prevalence of M. bovis in co-located cattle and humans highlights the risk of such transmission being zoonotic. Therefore, using genomic tools as part of surveillance would vastly improve our understanding of disease ecology and control strategies.

Molecular Characterization of Dengue Virus Strains from the 2019-2020 Epidemic in Hanoi, Vietnam

Dengue virus (DENV), which has circulated in Vietnam for several decades, has multiple serotypes and genotypes. A 2019 dengue outbreak resulted in a larger number of cases than any other outbreak. We conducted a molecular characterization using samples collected in 2019-2020 from dengue patients in Hanoi and nearby cities located in northern Vietnam. The circulating serotypes were DENV-1 (25%, n = 22) and DENV-2 (73%, n = 64). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all DENV-1 (n = 13) were genotype I and clustered to local strains circulating during the previous outbreak in the 2017, whereas DENV-2 consisted of two genotypes: Asian-I (n = 5), related to local strains from 2006-2022, and cosmopolitan (n = 18), the predominant genotype in this epidemic. The current cosmopolitan virus was identified as having an Asian-Pacific lineage. The virus was closely related to strains in other recent outbreaks in Southeast Asian countries and China. Multiple introductions occurred in 2016-2017, which were possibly from maritime Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia), mainland Southeast Asia (Cambodia and Thailand), or China, rather than from an expansion of localized Vietnamese cosmopolitan strains that were previously detected in the 2000s. We also analyzed the genetic relationship between Vietnam's cosmopolitan strain and recent global strains reported from Asia, Oceania, Africa, and South America. This analysis revealed that viruses of Asian-Pacific lineage are not restricted to Asia but have spread to Peru and Brazil in South America.

Influenza A viruses in gulls in landfills and freshwater habitats in Minnesota, United States

Introduction: The unpredictable evolution of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) presents an ongoing threat to agricultural production and public and wildlife health. Severe outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses in US poultry and wild birds since 2022 highlight the urgent need to understand the changing ecology of AIV. Surveillance of gulls in marine coastal environments has intensified in recent years to learn how their long-range pelagic movements potentially facilitate inter-hemispheric AIV movements. In contrast, little is known about inland gulls and their role in AIV spillover, maintenance, and long-range dissemination. Methods: To address this gap, we conducted active AIV surveillance in ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) and Franklin's gulls (Leucophaeus pipixcan) in Minnesota's natural freshwater lakes during the summer breeding season and in landfills during fall migration (1,686 samples). Results: Whole-genome AIV sequences obtained from 40 individuals revealed three-lineage reassortants with a mix of genome segments from the avian Americas lineage, avian Eurasian lineage, and a global "Gull" lineage that diverged more than 50 years ago from the rest of the AIV global gene pool. No poultry viruses contained gull-adapted H13, NP, or NS genes, pointing to limited spillover. Geolocators traced gull migration routes across multiple North American flyways, explaining how inland gulls imported diverse AIV lineages from distant locations. Migration patterns were highly varied and deviated far from assumed "textbook" routes. Discussion: Viruses circulating in Minnesota gulls during the summer breeding season in freshwater environments reappeared in autumn landfills, evidence of AIV persistence in gulls between seasons and transmission between habitats. Going forward, wider adoption of technological advances in animal tracking devices and genetic sequencing is needed to expand AIV surveillance in understudied hosts and habitats.

Model design for nonparametric phylodynamic inference and applications to pathogen surveillance

Inference of effective population size from genomic data can provide unique information about demographic history and, when applied to pathogen genetic data, can also provide insights into epidemiological dynamics. The combination of nonparametric models for population dynamics with molecular clock models which relate genetic data to time has enabled phylodynamic inference based on large sets of time-stamped genetic sequence data. The methodology for nonparametric inference of effective population size is well-developed in the Bayesian setting, but here we develop a frequentist approach based on nonparametric latent process models of population size dynamics. We appeal to statistical principles based on out-of-sample prediction accuracy in order to optimize parameters that control shape and smoothness of the population size over time. Our methodology is implemented in a new R package entitled mlesky. We demonstrate the flexibility and speed of this approach in a series of simulation experiments and apply the methodology to a dataset of HIV-1 in the USA. We also estimate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in England using thousands of SARS-CoV-2 sequences. By incorporating a measure of the strength of these interventions over time within the phylodynamic model, we estimate the impact of the first national lockdown in the UK on the epidemic reproduction number.

Phylogeographic reconstruction of the emergence and spread of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States

Powassan virus is an emerging tick-borne virus of concern for public health, but very little is known about its transmission patterns and ecology. Here, we expanded the genomic dataset by sequencing 279 Powassan viruses isolated from Ixodes scapularis ticks from the northeastern United States. Our phylogeographic reconstructions revealed that Powassan virus lineage II was likely introduced or emerged from a relict population in the Northeast between 1940 and 1975. Sequences strongly clustered by sampling location, suggesting a highly focal geographical distribution. Our analyses further indicated that Powassan virus lineage II emerged in the northeastern United States mostly following a south-to-north pattern, with a weighted lineage dispersal velocity of ~3 km/y. Since the emergence in the Northeast, we found an overall increase in the effective population size of Powassan virus lineage II, but with growth stagnating during recent years. The cascading effect of population expansion of white-tailed deer and I. scapularis populations likely facilitated the emergence of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States.

adaPop: Bayesian inference of dependent population dynamics in coalescent models

The coalescent is a powerful statistical framework that allows us to infer past population dynamics leveraging the ancestral relationships reconstructed from sampled molecular sequence data. In many biomedical applications, such as in the study of infectious diseases, cell development, and tumorgenesis, several distinct populations share evolutionary history and therefore become dependent. The inference of such dependence is a highly important, yet a challenging problem. With advances in sequencing technologies, we are well positioned to exploit the wealth of high-resolution biological data for tackling this problem. Here, we present adaPop, a probabilistic model to estimate past population dynamics of dependent populations and to quantify their degree of dependence. An essential feature of our approach is the ability to track the time-varying association between the populations while making minimal assumptions on their functional shapes via Markov random field priors. We provide nonparametric estimators, extensions of our base model that integrate multiple data sources, and fast scalable inference algorithms. We test our method using simulated data under various dependent population histories and demonstrate the utility of our model in shedding light on evolutionary histories of different variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Cardoso J, Gonçalves-dos-Santos ME, Oliveira RS, Aquino-Teixeira SM, Campos AAS, Almeida MAB, Simonini-Teixeira D, da P. Sevá A, Temponi AOD, Magalhães FM, da Silva Menezes AS, Lopes BT, Almeida HP, Pedroso AL, Gonçalves GP, Chaves DCC, de Menezes GG, Bernal-Valle S, Müller NFD, Janssen L, dos Santos E, Mares-Guia MA, Albuquerque GR, Romano APM, Franco AC, Ribeiro BM, Roehe PM, Lourenço-de-Oliveira R, de Abreu FVS. Yellow Fever Virus Maintained by Sabethes Mosquitoes during the Dry Season in Cerrado, a Semiarid Region of Brazil, in 2021

In recent decades, waves of yellow fever virus (YFV) from the Amazon Rainforest have spread and caused outbreaks in other regions of Brazil, including the Cerrado, a savannah-like biome through which YFV usually moves before arriving at the Atlantic Forest. To identify the vectors involved in the maintenance of the virus in semiarid environments, an entomological survey was conducted after confirmation of yellow fever (YF) epizootics at the peak of the dry season in the Cerrado areas of the state of Minas Gerais. In total, 917 mosquitoes from 13 taxa were collected and tested for the presence of YFV. Interestingly, mosquitoes of the Sabethes genus represented 95% of the diurnal captured specimens, displaying a peak of biting activity never previously recorded, between 4:30 and 5:30 p.m. Molecular analysis identified three YFV-positive pools, two from Sabethes chloropterus-from which near-complete genomes were generated-and one from Sa. albiprivus, whose low viral load prevented sequencing. Sa. chloropterus was considered the primary vector due to the high number of copies of YFV RNA and the high relative abundance detected. Its bionomic characteristics allow its survival in dry places and dry time periods. For the first time in Brazil, Sa. albiprivus was found to be naturally infected with YFV and may have played a role as a secondary vector. Despite its high relative abundance, fewer copies of viral RNA were found, as well as a lower Minimum Infection Rate (MIR). Genomic and phylogeographic analysis showed that the virus clustered in the sub-lineage YFVPA-MG, which circulated in Pará in 2017 and then spread into other regions of the country. The results reported here contribute to the understanding of the epidemiology and mechanisms of YFV dispersion and maintenance, especially in adverse weather conditions. The intense viral circulation, even outside the seasonal period, increases the importance of surveillance and YFV vaccination to protect human populations in affected areas.

Molecular evolution, diversity, and adaptation of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O in Asia

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and affects the economy of many countries worldwide. Serotype O is the most prevalent and is present in many regions of Asia. Lineages O/SEA/Mya-98, O/Middle East-South Asia (ME-SA)/PanAsia, O/Cathay and O/ME-SA/Ind-2001 have been circulating in Asian countries. Low antigenic matching between O/Cathay strains and current vaccine strains makes the disease difficult to control, therefore, analyzing the molecular evolution, diversity, and host tropisms of FMDV Serotype O in Asia may be helpful. Our results indicate that Cathay, ME-SA, and SEA are the predominant topotypes of FMDV serotype O circulating in Asia in recent years. Cathay topotype FMDV evolves at a higher rate compared with ME-SA and SEA topotypes. From 2011 onwards, the genetic diversity of the Cathay topotype has increased substantially, while large reductions were found in the genetic diversity of both ME-SA and SEA topotypes, suggesting a trend that infections sustained by the Cathay topotype were becoming a more severe epidemic in recent years. Analyzing the distributions of host species through time in the dataset, we found that the O/Cathay topotype was characterized by a highly swine-adapted tropism in contrast with a distinct host preference for O/ME-SA. The O/SEA topotype strains identified in Asia were isolated mainly from cattle until 2010. It is worth noting that there may be a fine-tuned tropism of the SEA topotype viruses for host species. To further explore the potential molecular mechanism of host tropism divergence, we analyzed the distribution of structure variations on the whole genome. Our findings suggest that deletions in the PK region may reflect a common pattern of altering the host range of serotype O FMDVs. In addition, the divergence of host tropism may be due to accumulated structural variations across the viral genome, rather than a single indel mutation.

Unique Genomic Epidemiology of COVID-19 in the White Mountain Apache Tribe, April to August 2020, Arizona

The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within the White Mountain Apache Tribe (WMAT) in Arizona was diagnosed almost 1 month after community transmission was recognized in the state. Aggressive contact tracing allowed for robust genomic epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and subsequent phylogenetic analyses implicated only two virus introductions, which resulted in the spread of two unique viral lineages on the reservation. The phylogenies of these lineages reflect the nature of the introductions, the remoteness of the community, and the extraordinarily high attack rates. The timing and space-limited nature of the outbreaks validate the public health tracing efforts involved, which were illustrated by multiple short transmission chains over a period of several weeks, eventually resulting in extinction of the lineages. Comprehensive sampling and successful infection control efforts are illustrated in both the effective population size analyses and the limited mortality outcomes. The rapid spread and high attack rates of the two lineages may be due to a combination of sociological determinants of the WMAT and a seemingly enhanced transmissibility. The SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology of the WMAT demonstrates a unique local history of the pandemic and highlights the extraordinary and successful efforts of their public health response. IMPORTANCE This article discusses the introduction and spread of two unique viral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 within the White Mountain Apache Tribe in Arizona. Both genomic sequencing and traditional epidemiological strategies (e.g., contract tracing) were used to understand the nature of the spread of both lineages. Beyond providing a robust genomic analysis of the epidemiology of the outbreaks, this work also highlights the successful efforts of the local public health response.